PUBLIC INFORMATION U.S. ARMY
FACT SHEET ENGINEERS
JACKSONVILLE DISTRICT JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA
FOR YOUR INFORMATION
THE FOUR RIVER BASINS WATER RESOURCES low, most probable and high alternative
MANAGEMENT STUDY futures. This detailed data is avail-
December 1976 able only at the Jacksonville District,
REPORT ON ECONOMIC BASE STUDY Corps of Engineers, and the Southwest
Florida Water Management District
This issue of the Water Resources (SWFWMD) in the form of computer print-
Management Study (WRMS) Public Infor- outs. These are known as Appendices
mation Fact Sheet is designed to fa- C-l through C-4 to the main report.
miliarize the reader with the recently The report (less this computer data)
completed Economic Base Study by the does contain future water demand by
Roy F. Weston, Inc., consulting firm. year, for each alternative future and
consumption category, for each county.
The Weston contract was performed
during the first six months of this The economic parameters of popula-
year. It had the primary purpose of tion, employment, agriculture, business
establishing water demand in the WRMS and industry, recreation, and local
study area for both present and future finance were investigated, together
conditions. Copies of this report have with existing land use, as prelimi-
been mailed to those agencies having a naries for establishing existing water
primary interest in the data developed, demand.
Additional copies are available for the
cost of reproduction $30.00. Next, alternative future method-
ologies were devised for projecting
HOW WAS THE ECONOMIC STUDY ORGANIZED? the future water demand of the selected
The projection of water demand for
the future years 1985 and 2035 based Finally, future water demand was
on the year 1975 was the primary goal established. Included in the Economic
of the study. Consumption categories Base Study is a book of Appendices
selected to provide this information projecting future population and
in a manageable form were: MUNICIPAL generalized land use by census tract
(Residential and commercial); INDUS- and/or division for 1985 and 2035,
TRIAL (Phosphate mining, limerock and the computer technology used in
mining, citrus processing, and other developing the detailed future water
industrial); AGRICULTURAL (Citrus pro- demand.
duction, in irrigated improved pasture,
truck crops); and MISCELLANEOUS LAND Geraghty and Miller, Inc., are
USES (power production and golf courses). currently performing a contract to
The water demand data are listed by determine the feasibility of alterna-
month and by census tract and/or di- tive plans of providing water supply
vision for each of the 16 counties to meet the projected increase in
wholly or partially in the study area. municipal water demand between 1975
The demand was made available for the and 2035.
ECONOMIC STUDY RESULTS
The study succeeded in its ob- 5 percent to give the 1985 projected
jectives of predicting how the future municipal water demand. The same pro-
economic activity within the study area cedure is used for 2035 projected muni-
would create demands for land and water. cipal water demand except the population
The Water Resources Management Study ratio is 2035 to 1975 and increased in
(WRMS) will formulate, at a later date, the range of 6 percent. The numerically
alternative plans for supplying water lowest demand value is labeled the low
to meet the projected increase in future water demand; the middle is called
municipal water demand between 1975 the most probably future water demand; and
and 2035. The water demand estimates, the highest, the high future water demand.
although based upon an intense investi-
gation of many sources, are not final
and conclusive at this point, but will
be considered preliminary, and subject i7 i
to revision until the WRMS is com-
pleted. Land use projections indicate
that urban land uses will steadily en- r
coach on agricultural and other types
of land use as the need for additional ler
future residences increases, Increased
productivity will allow more agricul-
tural production on less land.
The population of the study area
in 1985 will increase 45 percent over Agriculture will retain a prominent
the 1975 figure of 2,2 million. A 170 importance in the study area. Agricul-
percent increase over 1975 is predicted ture water demand values given in the
for 2035. Water demand in million gal- Weston report may be somewhat large.
lons per day (MGD) for residential and Current investigations by the Corps and
commercial uses is approximately for others will establish 1975, 1985 and
1975 303; 1985 441; and 2035 885. 2035 agriculture water demand for citrus
The primary growth will continue to re- production, truck crop production and
sult from in-migration. irrigated pasture. These demands will
be distributed as soon as available.
The municipal future water demand
is computed by using the following
three population projections: OBERS
base (an acronym stemming from Office
of Business Economics, now Bureau of
Economic Analysis and Economic Re-
search Service); University of Florida
base; and local base (based in part on
Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
and other local agencies' projections).
The ratio of the 1985 population (pro
jected) to the 1975 population is mul-
tiplied by the 1975 municipal water de-
mand and increased in the range of
Industrial water requirements are x) Review, finalization,
projected to be: 270 MGD for phosphate printing and distribution of report
mining in 1985, with zero demand for on Hydrologic and Engineering Evalua-
2035, Limerock mining will require tion conducted by Geraghty and
110 MGD in both 1985 and 2035. Manu- Miller, Inc;
facturing (other industrial) water
demand will be 44 MGD in 1985 and 59 (2) Plan formulation de-
MGD in 2035. Citrus processing water velopment of viable, implementable
demand will be 43 MGD in 1985 and alternative plans;
54 MGD in 2035.
(3) Economic analysis of
water supply and flood control bene-
(4) Further coordination with
(5) Hold a formulation stage
(6) Perform environmental,
social, economic and institutional
Impact assessment of the alternative
plans. A literature search contract
e has been let on 27 October 1976 to
Gulf South Research Institute of
Power production water demand is Baton Rouge, Louisiana. This contract
only significant in DeSoto and Polk will provide base data for the impact
Counties where it is expected that a assessment, which will likewise be
combined 400 MGD will be required in performed with the aid of consultants
1985 and 500 MGD in 2035. Much of through a contract to be let sometime
this water will be returned downstream in the summer of 1977.
of the electric generating stations.
b. Remaining Tasks (after FY-77)
Weston, Inc., expressed appre- (1) Develop final alternative
citation to the numerous Federal, State, plans;
regional and local agencies that made
vital information available and the (2) Develop final design and
timely completion of the study possible. cost estimates of alternative plans;
(3) Perform final benefit
In order to best inform you of (4) Prepare report;
what the schedule is for Fiscal Year
1977 (1 October 1976 30 September (5) Prepare draft Environ-
1977), and thereafter, of the Four mental Impact Statement (EIS);
River Basins (FRB) Water Resources
Management Study (WRMS), the tasks (6) Coordinate report and
are listed in outline form below: draft EIS;
a. Planned FY-77 Schedule: (7) Hold late stage public
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FOR MORE INFORMATION THE CIRCULATION OF
ON THE STUDY CONTACT: TH FOUR RIVER BASINS
A.LAN J. LAUWAERT (904) 791-3506
OR WATER RESOURCES
MANN G. DAVIS (904) 791-3594 MANAGEMENT STUDY
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