• TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIDE
 Copyright
 Title Page
 Abstract
 Table of Contents
 List of Figures
 List of Tables
 Per capita citrus consumption
 Orange juice demand
 Demand projections
 Orange juice supply
 Brazilian orange juice supply-demand...
 U.S. FCOJ imports
 Brazilian cost advantage
 U.S. FCOJ imports
 Implications of supply-demand...
 Literature cited
 Figures
 Tables






Group Title: Economic information report - Food and Resource Economics Department - 222
Title: Long-term outlook for Florida oranges
CITATION PAGE IMAGE ZOOMABLE PAGE TEXT
Full Citation
STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00027326/00001
 Material Information
Title: Long-term outlook for Florida oranges
Series Title: Economic information report
Physical Description: ii leaves, 24 p. : ill. ; 28 cm.
Language: English
Creator: Gunter, Dan L
Fairchild, Gary F
Publisher: Food and Resource Economics Dept., Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida
Place of Publication: Gainesville Fla.
Publication Date: 1986
 Subjects
Subject: Orange industry -- Forecasting -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Orange juice industry -- Forecasting -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Orange juice -- Prices -- Florida   ( lcsh )
Genre: government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent)   ( marcgt )
bibliography   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )
 Notes
Bibliography: Bibliography: p. 11.
Statement of Responsibility: Dan L. Gunter, Gary F. Fairchild.
General Note: Cover title.
General Note: "June 1986."
Funding: Economic information report (Gainesville, Fla.) ;
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00027326
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: Marston Science Library, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida
Holding Location: Florida Agricultural Experiment Station, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, and the Engineering and Industrial Experiment Station; Institute for Food and Agricultural Services (IFAS), University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved, Board of Trustees of the University of Florida
Resource Identifier: aleph - 001546382
oclc - 21116368
notis - AHF9912

Table of Contents
    Copyright
        Copyright
    Title Page
        Title Page
    Abstract
        Page i
    Table of Contents
        Page ii
    List of Figures
        Page iii
    List of Tables
        Page iii
    Per capita citrus consumption
        Page 1
    Orange juice demand
        Page 2
    Demand projections
        Page 3
    Orange juice supply
        Page 3
    Brazilian orange juice supply-demand situation
        Page 4
    U.S. FCOJ imports
        Page 5
    Brazilian cost advantage
        Page 6
    U.S. FCOJ imports
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
    Implications of supply-demand trends
        Page 9
        Page 10
    Literature cited
        Page 11
    Figures
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
    Tables
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
        Page 24
Full Text





HISTORIC NOTE


The publications in this collection do
not reflect current scientific knowledge
or recommendations. These texts
represent the historic publishing
record of the Institute for Food and
Agricultural Sciences and should be
used only to trace the historic work of
the Institute and its staff. Current IFAS
research may be found on the
Electronic Data Information Source
(EDIS)

site maintained by the Florida
Cooperative Extension Service.






Copyright 2005, Board of Trustees, University
of Florida





Dan L. Gunter


Gary F.


Economic Information
Report 222


Fairchild


Long-Term Outlook for
Florida Oranges


Food and Resource Economics Department
Cooperative Extension Service
Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences
University of Florida, Gainesville 32611


June 1986










Abstract


The Florida orange industry is in a state of change with respect

to both production and marketing environments. The dynamics of the

industry include shifts in orange juice demand, freeze-reduced Florida

orange crops and increased Brazilian and out-of-state competition.

This report provides an assessment of the projected orange juice

supply-demand situation and the implications of market trends for

Florida's orange industry.


KEYWORDS: Florida oranges, orange juice, long-term outlook,
supply/demand forecasts.







ii




Table of Contents


List of Figures . . . .

List of Tables . . . .

Per Capita Citrus Consumption . . .

Orange Juice Demand . . . .

Demand Projections . . . .

Orange Juice Supply . . . .

Brazilian Orange Juice Supply-Demand Situation

U. S. FCOJ Imports . . . .

Brazilian Cost Advantage . . .

Florida Orange Production Projections . .

Implications of Supply-Demand Trends .

Literature Cited . . . .


Page

. . .. iii

. . iii



2

3

3



5

6

6

9
. . 2

. . . 3

. . . 3




. . . 5

. . . 6



. . . 9

. . .11














List of Figures


Figure

1. U.S. Citrus Per Capita Consumption . . .

2. U.S. Juice Sales . . . . .

3. Retail Orange Juice Sales . . . .

4. Orange Juice Prices: Actual and Real . . .

5. Orange Juice Production: Florida and Sao Paulo, Brazil

6. Brazilian FCOJ Exports . . . .

7. Deutsche Marks per U.S. Dollar . . .

8. Florida Round Orange Tree Inventory . . .


Page

. 13

. 13

* 14

. 14

* 15

. 15

. 16

. 16


List of Tables


Table ,Pge

1. FCOJ Production, 1979-80 Through 1985-86 Seasons . .. 18

2. Brazilian On-tree Orange Prices. . . . ... 19

3. Average Brazilian FCOJ Prices FOB Santos ........ 20

4. U.S. FCOJ Imports, All Sources, 1980-81 Through
1984-85 Seasons . . . . 21

5. Age Distribution of Florida Round Orange Trees By Year of
Inventory . . . . 22

6. Estimated Future Florida Orange Production Trends Given Various
Future Tree Planting Assumptions . .... 23

7. Florida Round Orange and Temple Production Estimates By Type,
1986-87 Through 1990-91 . . ... .. 24














List of Figures


Figure

1. U.S. Citrus Per Capita Consumption . . .

2. U.S. Juice Sales . . . . .

3. Retail Orange Juice Sales . . . .

4. Orange Juice Prices: Actual and Real . . .

5. Orange Juice Production: Florida and Sao Paulo, Brazil

6. Brazilian FCOJ Exports . . . .

7. Deutsche Marks per U.S. Dollar . . .

8. Florida Round Orange Tree Inventory . . .


Page

. 13

. 13

* 14

. 14

* 15

. 15

. 16

. 16


List of Tables


Table ,Pge

1. FCOJ Production, 1979-80 Through 1985-86 Seasons . .. 18

2. Brazilian On-tree Orange Prices. . . . ... 19

3. Average Brazilian FCOJ Prices FOB Santos ........ 20

4. U.S. FCOJ Imports, All Sources, 1980-81 Through
1984-85 Seasons . . . . 21

5. Age Distribution of Florida Round Orange Trees By Year of
Inventory . . . . 22

6. Estimated Future Florida Orange Production Trends Given Various
Future Tree Planting Assumptions . .... 23

7. Florida Round Orange and Temple Production Estimates By Type,
1986-87 Through 1990-91 . . ... .. 24












Long-Term Outlook For Florida Oranges

Dan L. Gunter and Gary F. Fairchild*


Florida's orange industry has been popularly described as "in

transition." This transition involves three major factors -- growth

and shifts in orange juice demand, the four freezes of this decade,

and expansion of Brazilian orange production. Discovery of citrus

canker in Florida nurseries in August 1984 has contributed to the

uncertainty regarding planting decisions.

Given the nature of citrus production, where a large investment

of time and capital is required before any returns can be realized,

formulation of expectations about the future is critical to

development of business plans. The purpose of this report is to

briefly describe how the above mentioned factors will impact on the

welfare of the industry in the years ahead.


Per Capita Citrus Consumption


Florida's orange industry has benefited tremendously as a result

of demand growth. Per capital consumption of citrus in the U.S.

roughly doubled between 1940 and 1980 (Figure 1). It increased from

62.5 pounds in 1940 up to 117.5 pounds in 1980 measured on a fresh

weight equivalent basis. During the 40-year period there were also

significant shifts in demand for processed versus fresh products which

have benefited Florida's orange industry. Fresh citrus consumption



*Dan L. Gunter and Gary F. Fairchild are Economic Research Director,
Florida Department of Citrus and Extension Fruit Marketing Economist,
Food and Resource Economics Department, IFAS, University of Florida,
respectively.












declined by 50% during the 40-year period. Average fresh consumption

was 52 pounds per capital in 1940 and 26 pounds per capital in 1980.

Processed consumption increased by about ninefold during the same time

period. Processed consumption was about 10 pounds per capital in 1940

and 91 pounds per capital in 1980. Given Florida's orientation to

production of juice type varieties, the state has realized significant

gains from the expansion in demand for processed products.

Orange Juice Demand

Orange juice is the single most important fruit juice in the

American consumer's diet. Typically, orange juice accounts for about

two-thirds of the volume of the principal fruit juices sold in the

U.S., including apple, grapefruit, grape, pineapple, and prune (Figure

2). Orange is a flavor that is universally liked; orange juice is

healthful; and it is a product that fits into consumers' lifestyles.

Because of these factors, orange juice demand is expected to continue

expanding in the years ahead.

In the ten-year period through 1982-83, retail sales of orange

juice in the U.S. expanded at a rate of 4.6% annually with sales of

chilled orange juice (COJ) accounting for almost all the growth in

demand (Figure 3). That expansion took place during a period when

retail orange juice prices were increasing but at a rate similar to

price changes of other goods and services. In constant dollar terms,

retail orange juice prices were relatively flat or declining.

In the past two seasons (1983-84 and 1984-85), retail orange

juice prices have increased at a faster rate than prices on other

consumer goods and services as shown in Figure 4 by the "real" price










line. Retail orange juice prices were up by 14.8% in 1983-84 from

1982-83, and in 1984-85 the price level increased an average of 8.6%.

The general price level increased by 4.3% and 3.5% in 1984 and 1985,

respectively. Despite the increase in relative orange juice prices in

the last two seasons, sales have declined only slightly. The modest

decline in sales volume is an indication of the strength of the

domestic orange juice market. The sales trends reflect a product with

broad consumer appeal. Typically, 83% of the U.S. households purchase

orange juice during any given year.

Demand Projections

The demand for orange juice is a function of population, consumer

income, prices of substitutes, changes in tastes and preferences, and

the price of the product. Given expected trends in these factors,

orange juice sales will continue to increase. Assuming the retail

price returns to the 1982-83 level in constant dollar or real terms

and increases with the general price level, orange juice sales are

expected to expand at an annualized rate of 3.8% through 1995. To the

extent that prices fall below the 1982-83 level, demand is expected to

expand at a faster rate.

Orange Juice Supply


Demand is obviously only half the equation. Supply is of equal

importance in price determination. Orange juice supplies are

primarily a function of orange production in Florida and Brazil.

Florida's freezes in combination with Brazil's continued expansion of

production have given Brazil the distinction of being the largest










line. Retail orange juice prices were up by 14.8% in 1983-84 from

1982-83, and in 1984-85 the price level increased an average of 8.6%.

The general price level increased by 4.3% and 3.5% in 1984 and 1985,

respectively. Despite the increase in relative orange juice prices in

the last two seasons, sales have declined only slightly. The modest

decline in sales volume is an indication of the strength of the

domestic orange juice market. The sales trends reflect a product with

broad consumer appeal. Typically, 83% of the U.S. households purchase

orange juice during any given year.

Demand Projections

The demand for orange juice is a function of population, consumer

income, prices of substitutes, changes in tastes and preferences, and

the price of the product. Given expected trends in these factors,

orange juice sales will continue to increase. Assuming the retail

price returns to the 1982-83 level in constant dollar or real terms

and increases with the general price level, orange juice sales are

expected to expand at an annualized rate of 3.8% through 1995. To the

extent that prices fall below the 1982-83 level, demand is expected to

expand at a faster rate.

Orange Juice Supply


Demand is obviously only half the equation. Supply is of equal

importance in price determination. Orange juice supplies are

primarily a function of orange production in Florida and Brazil.

Florida's freezes in combination with Brazil's continued expansion of

production have given Brazil the distinction of being the largest










orange producing country in the world. Brazil's production has

consistently exceeded production in Florida since the early part of

the 1980's (Figure 5).

The relative importance of Florida and Brazil in the orange juice

market flip-flopped, changing almost overnight. Florida produced

251.1 million 420 Brix gallons of FCOJ in 1979-80. compared with

Brazil's 146.2 million gallons (Table 1). In 1983-84, Florida

produced 118.4 million 420 gallons compared with Brazil's pack of

250.3 million gallons.


Brazilian Orange Juice Supply-Demand Situation


Brazil has the capacity to continue expanding orange production.

Production expansion has occurred at extremely high rates in the past

decade. The commercial tree inventory in the state of Sao Paulo,

Brazil doubled in the ten years between 1972-81. In 1972, there were

50.2 million trees in Sao Paulo compared with a tree inventory in 1981

of 106.2 million trees, an annualized increased of 8.7%. If Brazil's

inventory expands at just half the rate observed between 1972 and

1981, the inventory would be in excess of 170 million trees by 1995.

Continuation of expansion in Brazil will depend upon the expected

returns from orange production. On-tree orange prices in Sao Paulo

will be at record high levels in the 1985-86 season (Table 2). The

estimated U.S. dollar equivalent on-tree price for Brazilian oranges

is projected to range from $3.50 to $4.50 per box compared with a

previous high price of $2.12 per box in 1981-82. The higher price

levels of the last two seasons could encourage continued expansion of

commercial plantings.





5



Brazil's orange production expanded in response to expanding

export demand for FCOJ. An increasingly larger percentage of Brazil's

production has been exported to the U.S. in recent years. In 1984,

59.2 of Brazil's FCOJ exports were to the U.S. compared with 11.6% ten

years earlier (Figure 6). Part of the reason for the increase results

from the fact that Florida's production was reduced by freezes. In

addition, Brazil's markets outside the U.S. weakened as a result of

higher FCOJ prices and the strength of the U.S. dollar, Brazil's

pricing unit.

The price for Brazilian FCOJ increased from $844 per metric ton

(650 Brix) in 1980 to $1,565 per metric ton in 1985, and 85% increase

(Table 3). The strength of the U.S. dollar served to further increase

the price of Brazilian FCOJ outside the U.S. market. The German mark,

for example, declined in value by 91% from 1980 through 1984 (Figure

7). Realignment of the European currencies against the U.S. dollar

and lower Brazilian FCOJ prices would be expected to enhance world

demand for Brazilian concentrate. However, some feel that the

European orange juice market may have suffered long-term damage

because of growth in demand for juice drinks and nectars. Thus, the

U.S. has become an increasingly important market for Brazil and will

likely continue to be the destination of a large portion of Brazil's

exports in the years ahead. Construction of tank farms in the

northeastern U.S. will likely result in an increasing volume of

imports into U.S. ports outside Florida.


U.S. FCOJ Imports


Prior to the 1982-83 season, at least 80% of FCOJ imports entered










through Florida ports (Table 4). Florida processors were Brazil's

most important customers in the U.S. In 1982-83, imports into Florida

ports accounted for 66% of the imported volume, decreasing to 63% of

the volume imported in 1983-84 and 55% in the 1984-85 season. Imports

into ports outside of Florida have increased, in part, because of

growth in demand for ready-to-serve (chilled) orange juice, a product

easily packaged by existing dairy operations outside Florida. Because

of the expected continued growth in demand for ready-to-serve product

and Brazil's pricing strategy, the trend in imports around Florida

will likely continue as a competitive factor.

Brazilian Cost Advantage


Brazilian processors have historically enjoyed a production cost

advantage over the Florida processor. For example, Brazilian pick and

haul costs are reportedly one-third of the Florida costs. Brazil's

cost advantage translates into a marketing advantage. The Brazilian

industry can sell at a lower price and still recover costs. The cost

advantage will become a more important factor as Florida recovers from

the impact of four freezes in five seasons.

Florida Orange Production Projections


Prior to 1980, Florida experienced a major freeze about every

nine years. In the early 80's, long-term production estimates for the

decade of the 80's suggested that orange and Temple production would

range between 200 and 220 million boxes. Actual production has ranged

as low as 107.2 million boxes including Temples. production is

expected to return to pre-freeze levels. However, recovery is likely










through Florida ports (Table 4). Florida processors were Brazil's

most important customers in the U.S. In 1982-83, imports into Florida

ports accounted for 66% of the imported volume, decreasing to 63% of

the volume imported in 1983-84 and 55% in the 1984-85 season. Imports

into ports outside of Florida have increased, in part, because of

growth in demand for ready-to-serve (chilled) orange juice, a product

easily packaged by existing dairy operations outside Florida. Because

of the expected continued growth in demand for ready-to-serve product

and Brazil's pricing strategy, the trend in imports around Florida

will likely continue as a competitive factor.

Brazilian Cost Advantage


Brazilian processors have historically enjoyed a production cost

advantage over the Florida processor. For example, Brazilian pick and

haul costs are reportedly one-third of the Florida costs. Brazil's

cost advantage translates into a marketing advantage. The Brazilian

industry can sell at a lower price and still recover costs. The cost

advantage will become a more important factor as Florida recovers from

the impact of four freezes in five seasons.

Florida Orange Production Projections


Prior to 1980, Florida experienced a major freeze about every

nine years. In the early 80's, long-term production estimates for the

decade of the 80's suggested that orange and Temple production would

range between 200 and 220 million boxes. Actual production has ranged

as low as 107.2 million boxes including Temples. production is

expected to return to pre-freeze levels. However, recovery is likely












to take at least a decade due to the necessity of replanting or

planting of additional acreage.

As of 1984, Florida's commercial orange tree inventory is at the

lowest level since the census was initiated in 1966 (Figure 8). The

Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service "Citrus Tree Census" of

August 1985 revised the 1984 inventory in the 14 counties which were

most severely damaged in the 1985 freeze. The revision reduced the

total commercial production area to 474,616 acres compared with

627,174 acres in 1980. The revised 1984 inventory is 42.3 million

trees compared with 52.0 million trees in 1980. The freezes and

planting trends have also resulted in a shift in the age distribution

of the orange trees. Almost 33% of the inventory is made up of trees

less than ten years of age (Table 5).

Projections of Florida's future orange production are based on

four factors -- the tree inventory, the yield per tree by age group,

assumed plantings, and assumed tree loss rates. The yield, plantings

and tree loss rates are based on observed historical levels. The

yield reflects averages per tree reported by the Florida Crop and

Livestock Reporting Service during 1973-74 through 1982-83. Tree

losses reflect average rates for 1972 through 1982.

Planting rates are based on observed trends during 1979 through

1983. During this period early and midseason varieties were planted

at a rate of 1.4 million trees per year with the rate for Valencias

averaging about 900,000 trees per year. Temples were planted at a

rate of 9,000 trees per year. Planting rates in future years will

depend upon the profitability (or expected profitability) of orange

production and the availability of nursery stock, and could vary from












the levels observed during the 1979-83 period. In order to check the

sensitivity of future production levels to changes in planting rates,

production estimates were developed for three different rates -- the

average observed, double the average and triple the average.

Based on the assumptions outlined, production of round oranges

and Temples is projected to increase from 134 million boxes in 1986-87

up to 145 million boxes by 1990-91 if planting rates are maintained at

the average rate observed during 1979 through 1983 (Table 6).

Variation in planting rates will not impact on orange production until

1989-90 when trees planted in 1986-87 would begin to bear fruit.

Production is projected to reach 148 million boxes by 1990-91 if the

planting rate is doubled and 152 million boxes with in five years if

the planting rate is tripled. The production estimates should be

viewed as trends with production varying from season to season due to

grove care practices and/or general growing conditions.

Estimated production increases vary by orange type, with early

and midseason oranges accounting for the majority of projected

increases (Table 7). Early and midseason oranges are projected to

increase from 70 to 82 million boxes between 1986-87 and 1990-91.

Valencias are expected to increase from 60 to 63 million boxes during

the same period while Temples are projected to remain generally stable

at 4 million boxes.

Florida's recovery from the past four freezes will likely take

more than a decade. Even though Florida production is expected to

continue to increase during the next decade, orange juice production

from Florida fruit is not expected to be adequate to supply the

expanding U.S. market. Thus, imports will continue to be needed.










Without expanding markets outside the U.S., Brazil's expected orange

production increases in combination with recovery of production in

Florida are likely to put downward pressure on orange prices.

The above supply-demand scenario has implications in three major

areas -- Florida's production efficiency, U.S. tariff maintenance and

Florida's marketing efforts.

Implications of Supply-Demand Trends


Brazilian FCOJ exporters, once primarily supplemental suppliers

to the U.S. market, are now also a major competitive consideration.

Increased Brazilian competition necessitates improved production

efficiency for the industry to be able to remain competitive.

From the orange growers' perspective, the industry's legislative

efforts should continue in order to maintain the U.S. citrus tariffs

that help to level the playing field for the Florida citrus industry.

Reductions in the U.S. tariff will undermine Florida's competitive

position in the market.

Finally, Florida's marketing efforts should continually be

evaluated to insure that the programs are as effective as possible.

Florida's success in the orange juice market resulted in large measure

because of a history of successful marketing programs. The market

situation has changed. When Florida supplied 95% of the orange juice

in the U.S. market, the benefits of the marketing programs accrued in

large measure to the Florida citrus industry. The decline in the

share of the market supplied by Florida means that other suppliers are

benefiting from Florida's generic marketing efforts. The situation

does not mean that Florida should discontinue marketing efforts but










simply indicates the necessity of undertaking programs that more

closely tie promotional efforts to Florida processed products. The

"Seal of Approval" program initiated in the fall of 1985 reflects a

change in the generic marketing program that is designed to take

advantage of Florida's orange juice standards. The symbol is being

licensed for use to differentiate the product in the marketplace.

Expanded use of the Florida Sunshine Tree Symbol is also possible.

The Florida orange industry has continually adapted to change.

The industry has a strong base and orange juice demand is expected to

continue to expand. No doubt the industry will meet the challenges

posed by nature and the expected competitive environment in years

ahead.









Literature Cited

1. Attache Report. 1985 (and other years). Unpublished Annual

Citrus Report. Sao Paulo, Brazil.

2. Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. July

1984. Fruit Outlook and Situation. Washington, D.C.

3. Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. 1985. Citrus Tree

Census. Orlando, Florida.

4. Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. 1984. Commercial

Citrus Inventory 1984 (and previous reports). Orlando, Florida.

5. Florida Department of Citrus. 1985. A.C. Nielsen Food Index

Annual Summary 1984. Market Research Report. Lakeland, Florida.

6. Florida Department of Citrus, Market Research Department. Citrus

Digest, Monthly Reports. Lakeland, Florida.

7. Gunter, Dan L. and Mark G. Brown. 1985. Florida Citrus Outlook

1985-86 season. Working paper 85-12. Economic Research

Department, Florida Department of Citrus, Gainesville, Florida.

8. Gunter, Dan L., Mark G. Brown, and Gary F. Fairchild. 1985.

Long-run Supply/Demand Forecast for Florida Citrus 1985 through

1995. CIR 85-1. Economic Research Department, Florida

Department of Citrus, Gainesville, Florida.

9. International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics,

Monthly Reports 1980-1985. Washington, D.C.

10. U.S. Department of Commerce. IM145X, Monthly Reports 1980-1985.

Washington, D.C.































Figures
















U.S. CITRUS


POUNDS
120 r


Figure 1

PER CAPITAL CONSUMPTION


117.5


1920 1940 1960 1980
YEAR


Pounds = Fresh Weight Equivalent.


Figure 2.
U.S. JUICE SALES
(PERCENT)


ORANGE 68.9%


ORANGE 65.3%


PRUNE 2%
GRAPE 5.4%


PINEAPPLE 2.1%


_ "y GRAPEFRUIT 10.5%
APPLE 11.1%


1978


PINEAPPLE 2.3%


PRUNE 1.7%
GRAPE 5.6%

S GRAPEFRUIT 5.6%

APPLE 19.5%


1985


E URCE: NPD


PROCESSED

FRESH


USJUSAP1








14
Figure 3.
RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALES


Mil. SSE Gal.
900 r 863 855
800 808 4r
000"0
709 715 708
700 650
700 o



500 00
422
400 -371 382 37

300

200



0 -
b ,A bb q 1Iv A A 41 A A AA Ab k p z;, b ^

Season
Source: A.C. Nielsen


FCOJ

Co.'

iiS?]


Figure 4.
ORANGE JUICE PRICES
ACTUAL AND REAL


4.00


3.75


3.50


3.25


3.00


2.75


2.50


3.80


ACTUAL


S ...... 2.9 1
REAL .2.91



FORECAST


------------


81-82 82-83


83-84 84-85


SEASON


2.25


79-80 80-81









Figure 5.
ORANGE PRODUCTION
FLORIDA AND SAO PAULO, BRAZIL


MILLION BOXES
220
200
180
160
140
120
100 -
80
60
40
20 1o.
0 '


,-.,103a.


V
-------" '
.---,--
,


01 0 l l 11 W l z 0 8 l l l ll N N l l


SEASON
Source: Florida Crop And Livestock Reporting
Service, and Instituto de Economia
Agricola.



Figure 6.


BRAZILIAN


FCOJ EXPORTS


905
A


5688
TOTAL 4 \





................... ..... / \28 7

/4 UNITED STATES
108 .**.

2 3 ..-". .. .
2 3 ......


YEAR


I 96.7


FLORIDA


SAO PAULO.
BRAZIL


1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200


En
z

0
I-


100

0


19741975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19 1985
19741975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19841985


mi, a, :, I, I I I I fI f I I I I ,f


' I @










Figure 7.
DEUTSCHE MARKS PER U.S.
JANUARY 1980 THROUGH APRIL
(Market Rate / Par or Cer!tral
3.5 r


DOLLAR
1986
Par)

3.32


3.3

3.1

2.9

2.7


2.1

1.9


1.7


2.27


1.74


I . . I . I I I. .I . . . . .


JMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSN
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Month/Year


JMMJSNJM
1985


SOURCE: International Financial Statlattlc


Figure 8.


FLORIDA ROUND ORANGE TREE INVENTORY


53.8


53.5


48 +


42.3

1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984


YEAR

































Tables














Table 1. FCOJ production, 1979-80 through 198K-86 seasons


Season Florida Brazil

--- million 420 Brix gallons ---

1979-80 251.1 146.2

1980-81 181.5 165.2

1981-82 133.3 202.1

1982-83 169.6 189.6

1983-84 121.2 169.0

1984-85 118.4 250.3

1985-86a 137.5 292.0

aEstimate













Table 2. Brazilian on-tree orange prices


Season Cruzerios/Box Dollars/Box


1975-76 8 .90

1976-77 10 .85

1977-78 30 2.00

1978-79 36 1.72

1979-80 51 1.70

1980-81 108 1.65

1981-82 210 2.12

1982-83 400 1.27

1983-84 850 .97

1984-85 4,500 2.10

1985-86 18,300a 3.50-4.50b

a20,000 CR less 1,700 CR for grower contribution to value added tax.

Expected

SOURCE: Agriculture Attache, Sao Paulo, Brazil.











Table 3. Average Brazilian FCOJ prices FOB Santos


Year Dollars/MT 650 Brix


1980 844

1981 1,081

1982 1,100

1983 1,100

1984 1,563

1985 1,565a

aEstimate based on minimum export prices.











Table 4. U.S. FCOJ Imports, all sources, 1980-81 through 1984-85 seasons.


Season


1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1884-85
Port

% of % of % of % of % of
Quantity Quantity Quantity Quantity Quantity
total total total total total


1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
% % % % % -
SSE gal. SSE gal. SSE gal. SSE gal. SSE gal.

Florida 166,970.5 80.11 303,631.6 81.15 248,694.4 65.95 337,559.1 63.27 329,084.7 55.2

Other 41,445.6 19.89 70,516.9 18.85 128,395.3 34.05 195,970.2 36.73 267,502.4 44.8


Total 208,416.1 100.00 374,148.5 100.00 377,089.7 100.00 533,529.3 100.00 596,587.1 100.00


aDecember through November.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of


Commerce, IM-145X.











Table 5. Age distribution of
inventory


Florida round orange trees by year of


Tree Age Total
Year
< 4 5-9 10-14 15-24 > 25


------------------ percent ----------------- 1,000 trees

1984 22.9 10.0 6.6 36.5 24.1 42,294

1982 13.9 6.9 7.2 40.2 31.8 53,505

1980 8.9 6.9 13.0 39.1 32.2 51,978

1978 6.7 7.7 23.4 31.5 30.6 50,843

1976 6.2 10.0 29.7 24.1 29.8 51,595

1974 5.8 21.0 27.8 16.9 28.4 52,522

1972 7.3 29.5 22.0 14.1 27.0 53,731

1970 14.5 32.8 14.8 13.4 24.4 57,802


SOURCE: Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service.











Table 6. Estimated future Florida orange production trends given
various future tree planting assumptions

Future Tree Planting Assumptions
Season
Averagea Doubleb Triplec

--------------- million boxes --------------

1986-87 134 134 134

1987-88 132 132 132

1988-89 141 141 141

1989-90 144 147 148

1990-91 145 148 152

aBased on average annual tree planting rate from 1979-1983.
bDouble the average annual tree planting rate from 1979-1983.

CTriple the average annual tree planting rate from 1979-1983.

SOURCE: Economic Research Department, Florida Department of Citrus.











Table 7. Florida round orange and Temple production estimates by
type, 1986-87 through 1990-91.a


Season Early & Valencia Temple Total
Midseason


---------------- million boxes ---------------

1986-87 70 60 4 134

1987-88 70 58 4 132

1988-89 77 60 4 141

1989-90 80 63 4 147

1990-91 82 63 3 148

aAssumes future tree planting rates will be double those observed
during 1979-1983.




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