Title: Seasonality of Florida cow marketings and prices
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 Material Information
Title: Seasonality of Florida cow marketings and prices
Alternate Title: Bulletin 194 ; Florida Cooperative Extension Service
Physical Description: Book
Language: English
Creator: Simpson, James R.
Spreen, Thomas H.
Publisher: Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida
Publication Date: 1981
Copyright Date: 1981
 Record Information
Bibliographic ID: UF00026355
Volume ID: VID00001
Source Institution: University of Florida
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: aab7737 - LTQF
acf1291 - LTUF
10759174 - OCLC
000405061 - AlephBibNum

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HISTORIC NOTE


The publications in this collection do
not reflect current scientific knowledge
or recommendations. These texts
represent the historic publishing
record of the Institute for Food and
Agricultural Sciences and should be
used only to trace the historic work of
the Institute and its staff. Current IFAS
research may be found on the
Electronic Data Information Source
(EDIS)

site maintained by the Florida
Cooperative Extension Service.






Copyright 2005, Board of Trustees, University
of Florida




Analyzed


September, 1981


BULLETIN 194


Seasonality of Florida

Cow Marketings and Prices

James R. Simpson'
Thomas H. Spreen ,a


[1-


4 ~1


1 I I ~~~f'iI i-ti


y~ ~\
~ I A


Florida Cooperative Extension Service / Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences / University of Florida / John T. Woeste, Dean


, I '->.-. ,

















SEASONALITY OF FLORIDA COW MARKETING AND PRICES


by

James R. Simpson and Thomas H. Spreen










TABLE OF CONTENTS


LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . .


LIST OF FIGURES


TREND AND CYCLICAL PRICE MOVEMENTS . . . . . .


FLORIDA COW MARKETING . . . . . . . . .


UNITED STATES COW MARKETING COMPARED WITH FLORIDA . .


SEASONALITY IN UNITED STATES AND FLORIDA COW PRICES. .

Florida . . . . . . . . . . .

United States . . . . . . . . . .


MARKETINGS-PRICE RELATIONSHIPS . . . . . . .


ESTIMATION OF PRICE CHANGES: FALL AND WINTER TO SPRING.


SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . .


REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . .


APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . .


Page

. . . ii


. . . . . . . . . . . . iv


2


7


14



. . . 14





. . . 20


. . . 24


. . . 27


. . . 29








LIST OF TABLES


Table Page

1 Differences between October and March in marketing of
stocker cows through Florida auctions, 1971-80 . . 5

2 Comparison of largest and second largest months of cow
marketing in Florida, 1971-80 . . . . . . 8

3 Cows and bulls purchased by packers in Florida through
different market outlets, 1971-78. . . . . . 9

4 Comparison of largest and second largest months of
federally inspected cow slaughter in the United States,
1971-80. . . . . . . . . ... ...... 12

5 Comparison of highest and second highest monthly prices
of Utility grade slaughter cows in Florida, 1971-80. .

6 Comparison of lowest and second lowest monthly prices
of Utility grade slaughter cows in Florida, 1971-80. 18

7 Comparison of average price changes from October to April
and May, Cutter and Utility grade cull cows in Florida,
1971-80. . . . . . . . . . ..... 23

8 Comparison of average price changes from January to April
and May, Cutter and Utility grade cull cows in Florida,
1971-80. . . . . . . . . ... ...... 25


A-1 Marketings of slaughter and stocker cows through Florida
auctions, 1971-80. . . . . . . . . ... 29

A-2 Number and index of all cows marketed through Florida
auctions, 1971-80. . . . . . . . . ... 30

A-3 Florida cow inventory and all cattle marketing, 1962-80 31

A-4 Marketings of slaughter cows through Florida auctions by
month and class of cattle, 1971-80 . . . .... 32

A-5 Number and index of cows slaughtered under federal inspec-
tion in the United States, 1971-80 . . . .... 34

A-6 Average monthly prices of Utility and Cutter grade
slaughter cows, and all slaughter cows sold through
Florida auctions, 1971-80. . . . . . . ... 35

A-7 Index, prices received by farmers for livestock and
livestock products 1971-80 . . . . . .... 36









LIST OF TABLES (cont.)


Table Page

A-8 Average deflated (1967=100) monthly prices of Utility
and Cutter grade slaughter cows sold through Florida
auctions, 1971-80. . . . . . . . . ... 37

A-9 Index of deflated average monthly prices of Utility and
Cutter grade slaughter cows sold through Florida auctions,
1971-80. . ... . . . . . . . . 38

A-10 Average monthly prices of Utility grade slaughter cows,
Omaha, 1971-80 . . . . . . . . ... . 39

A-11 Price difference between Omaha and Florida, Utility grade
slaughter cows, 1971-80. . . . . . . . ... 40

A-12 Average price changes from October to April and May, Cutter
and Utility grade cull cows in Florida, 1971-80. ... 41

A-13 Average price changes from January to April and May, Cutter
and Utility grade cull cows in Florida, 1971-80. .. .. 42









LIST OF FIGURES


Figure Page

1 Cattle cycles since 1930, prices and inventory . . . 3

2 Florida cow inventory, 1962-80 . . . . . . . 4

3 Monthly marketing of all cows through Florida auctions,
1979, 1980 and average 1971-80 . . . . . . . 6

4 Number of cows slaughtered under federal inspection in
the United States, 1971-75 . . . . . . . .. 10

5 Number of cows slaughtered under federal inspection in
the United States, 1976-80 . . . . . . . .. 11

6 Indices of United States federally inspected cow slaughter
and cows marketed through Florida auctions, average,
1971-80. ................ . . . 13

7 Average monthly prices of Utility grade slaughter cows
in Florida, 1971-80 . . . . . . . . 15

8 Seasonality of Utility grade Florida slaughter cow prices,
deflated index basis, average, 1971-80 . . . ... 16

9 Monthly price differences for Utility grade slaughter cows,
Florida minus Omaha, 1976-79 and average, 1971-79 . ... 19

10 Price differentials of Utility grade slaughter cows, Florida
minus Omaha, plotted against marketing of all cows through
Florida auctions, 1979 . . . . . . . . . 21

11 Average price differentials of Utility grade slaughter cows,
Florida minus Omaha, plotted against marketing of all
cows through Florida auctions, 1971-79 . . . . .. 22









SEASONALITY OF FLORIDA COW MARKETING AND PRICES


James R. Simpson and Thomas H. Spreen


Florida is an important cattle producing area, ranking 15th in the
United States in total cattle and calves, and 9th in beef cows as of
January 1, 1981. A cow-calf type enterprise characterizes Florida, but
only about 10-20 percent of the calves produced in the state are finished
in Florida feedlots [11].

The Southeastern United States cattle industry is also predominantly
cow-calf in nature. The 1981 U.S. cattle inventory report shows that
breeding cows make up 45 percent of the total inventory of cattle and
calves in the region as compared to 34 percent nationally. The percent-
age in Florida is still higher, at 54 percent [2]. Further, in 1980,
cow slaughter accounted for 48.5 percent of federally inspected cattle
slaughter in region 4 1/ as compared to 18.7 percent nationally [16].

With few exceptions researchers have overlooked the importance of
slaughter cows to ranchers by limiting the study to feeder and fed cattle
marketing and prices [3,4,5,7,8,13,19,20]. This is particularly un-
fortunate for Florida cattlemen, since receipts from the sale of cull cows
represent a significant portion of their total revenue. This report focuses
on the seasonality of Florida slaughter cow marketing and prices and their
relation to the United States as a whole. In addition, there is discussion
of the benefits--and costs--from various strategies which producers could
employ to take advantage of the seasonal variation in prices.


TREND AND CYCLICAL PRICE MOVEMENTS


It has long been recognized that production and prices of beef cattle
undergo movements over time that can be divided into trend, cyclical and
seasonal components [7]. Florida slaughter cow prices are no exception
to this axiom. Prices are affected by a trend component which is the
long-run tendency for both prices and production to increase over time.
Inflation serves to advance general price levels, and production has
increased due to biological breakthroughs and a historically increasing
preference for beef. Trend aspects are described in [3].





I/Region 4 includes the following states: Kentucky, Texas, North
Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida.


JAMES R. SIMPSON is associate professor and extension livestock
marketing economist, and THOMAS H. SPREEN is assistant professor, in the
Food and Resource Economics Department.






(2)


The cattle cycle is defined as the period from one low point in
national cattle inventory to the next low point. This has traditionally
been about 10-12 years. The cycle results from a lagged response to
changes in cattle prices [9]. There is no observable world cattle cycle
although many countries, especially those which are major importers or
exporters, do have a cycle which parallels that of the Unites States [11].
Cyclical price movements are inversely related to inventory changes
(Figure 1).

The United States embarked on a new cattle cycle in 1980 giving rise
to the expectation that cow prices will probably remain relatively high
through 1985 or 1986 at which time, if historical precedents are ful-
filled, there will be another price decline and subsequent inventory
reduction. In the meantime, there will be annual variations in cattle
herd buildup and, consequently, variations in prices. Thus, the inter-
vening years will be affected by political decisions, changes in consumer
demand, inflation and related events which form an intermediate step
between cyclical and seasonal factors.


FLORIDA COW MARKETING


About 80-90 percent of all cows marketed through Florida auctions
in recent years are classed as slaughter animals (Table A-1). The total
number of cows marketed fluctuates considerably, depending on the period
in which the industry finds itself on the cattle cycle (Figure 2). There
was a low of 43,160 head of all cows marketed in 1980 compared with over
67,000 head in 1977 during the height of the liquidation or deceleration
phase (reduction in cattle numbers) (Table A-2). In 1977 cows comprised
about 4 percent of all cattle and calf marketing as opposed to 5 or 6
percent of the total in other years (Table A-3).

About one percent of all slaughter class cows marketed in Florida
fall in the Standard and Commercial grade compared with 8-13 percent as
Canners, and about 20-38 percent as Cutters (Table A-4). Approximately
half are in the Utility grade.

Stocker cows, as a percent of all cow marketing, varies considerably
depending on the year and month. During the years of heavy national herd
liquidation (the deceleration phase of the cattle cycle), October stocker
marketing drop. For example, they fell from 21.3 percent of all cow
marketing in 1973, to 10.8 percent in 1976 (Table 1). By 1979 they were
back up to 23.7 percent of all cows sold through Florida auctions. March
marketing of stockers also depend on the cattle cycle, with heaviest con-
centrations in the expansion (national herd buildup) phase of the cycle,
and smallest percentages in the deceleration phase. The difference between
October and March (11.5 percent in the 1973-74 period), has continuously
declined to the point there has been little difference between October
and March since 1976.

The fluctuations by month for 1978, 1979 and 1980 are graphed in
Figure 3. Despite wide fluctuations both within and between years, there
are two definite periods of heavy marketing; spring and fall. Overall,














Cattle and Calves on Farms January 1
MILLION


Price Received by Farmers for Beef Cattle
S/CWT


1930 40 50 60
SProjected range





Figure 1. Cattle Cycles Since 1930, Prices and Inventory.


70I I I 80I I I I
70 80


Source: Farmers' Newsletter: Livestock, August, 1978, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture with adjustments
for later years.








1,800-


1,700-


1,600-


1,500-


1,400-


1 1,300-
o
o
C 1,200-

0
S1,100-


1000-


900-


800


---I---I---1---I---i--- --- T

1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69


Figure 2 Florida cow inventory, 1962-1980

Source: Table A-3.


70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 1980
Year











Table 1 Differences between October and March in marketing
Florida auctions, 1971-80


of stocker cows through


October


All
cows Stocker
-----Head-----


5,133

4,092

5,642

6,195

6,991

5,207

5,279

5,605

4,667


2,052

852

1,199

1,058

853

560

968

1,330

1,027


Stocker
as Share
of total
-Percent-

40.0

20.8

21.3

17.1

12.2

10.8

16.9

23.7

22.0


All
cows Stocker
-----Head-----


5,909

4,633

4,119

5,336

5,638

6,243

6,802

3,173

3,828


1,971

622

403

565

572

602

919

756

532


March
Stocker
as a pct.
of total
-Percent-

33.4

13.4

9.8

10.6

10.1

9.6

13.5

23.8

13.9


Stockers,
decline
October-March
---Percent---

6.6

7.4

11.5

6.5

2.1

1.2

3.4

0.1

8.1


See Tables A-3 and A-4.


Year


1971/72

72/73

73/74

74/75

75/76

76/77

77/78

78/79

79/80


Source: [21


----











































79 1
Avg. 71-80


J F M A M J J A S 0 N D
Month


Figure 3 Monthly marketing of slaughter cows
1979, 1980 and average 1371-80.


through Florida auctions,


Source: Table A-2.


\.








March and October are ranked first. October is about 14 percent above
the monthly average, while March, with a seasonal index of 111, is 11
percent above the average (Table A-2). The index is derived by dividing
each annual average of cows marketed by the monthly number of cows mar-
keted in that year. Thus, the annual average=100. A comparison of the
rankings by months shows the wide variation by years (Table 2).

Between 50 and 60 percent of the cows and bulls slaughtered in
Florida come from auction markets, with the cattle cycle being the major
factor affecting purchase source composition (Table 3). During the years
of national herd increase, i.e. through 1974 and in 1980, about 60 per-
cent were continuously purchased through auction markets. But, in 1975-78,
years of extensive breeding herd culling, the percentage purchased from
auction markets dropped continuously, reaching a low of 33 percent in
1977. Despite these cyclical shifts, the table shows that auction market
prices can be considered representative of industry-wide prices, and can
serve as the basis for the seasonal price analysis as presented in a
later section.


UNITED STATES COW MARKETING COMPARED WITH FLORIDA


The number of cows slaughtered monthly under federal inspection
from 1971-1980 is given in Table A-5 along with an index of these mar-
ketings. The average ranges from about 450-500 thousand head during
periods of national herd buildup or stability, up to a record 868 thousand
head in 1975. The peak month was December of that year when 1,123,000
head were slaughtered. The low was 386,000 head in April, 1973 when
price controls were imposed [10]. Thus, the monthly federally inspected
(F.I.) cow slaughter, graphed in Figures 4 and 5, show the dominating
influence of the cattle cycle.

A comparison of the largest and second largest months of federally
inspected cow slaughter in the United States reveals that October is
first, with November being second (Table 4). The index numbers for these
months are 113.9 and 113.5 respectively, while December and January,
109.3 and 108.2 respectively, are nearly tied for third place. The
months of February-July all run below the yearly average, clearly showing
that fall is the major season of cow marketing. 2/

A comparison of Florida cow marketing and United States F.I. slaughter
is given in Figure 6. It indicates that Florida marketing as reflected
through slaughter levels are seasonally heaviest in March, with considerable
movements taking place through June. United States marketing, in contrast,
are lowest from February through June, with the peak months from October
through January. In the next section an analysis is made to determine
the effect of seasonality on prices.


-'There are no data available on national marketing of stocker and
slaughter cows. Thus, federally inspected (F.I.) slaughter has been
chosen as the best approximation of trends. In all likelihood, there is
more movement in September than shown, with considerable numbers of cows
being placed on feed for three or four months.











Table 2 Comparison of largest and second largest months of cow
marketing in Florida, 1971-80


Jan.-June July-Dec. Year
Year 1st 2nd Ist 2nd 1st 2nd

1971 Mar. June Sept. Nov. Mar. Sept.

72 Mar. Jan. Aug. Nov. Mar. Aug.

73 Jan. Mar. Oct. Aug. Oct. Jan.

74 May Mar. Oct. Aug. Oct. May

75 Apr. May Oct. Sept. Oct. Apr.

76 June Apr. Sept. Oct. June Sept.

77 June Mar. Nov. Aug. Nov. June

78 May Mar. Oct. Aug. May Oct.

79 May Jan. Aug. July May Aug.

1980 Apr. Jan. Oct. July Apr. Jan.

Avg. Mar. May Oct. Aug. Oct. Mar.


Source: Derived from the index in Table A-2.





(9)



Table 3 Cows and bulls purchased by packers in Florida through different market
outlets, 1971-1978.


Number of head Percentage
Direct, country Auction Direct, country Auction
Year dealers, etc. markets Total dealers, etc. markets
------------1000 head----------- ---------percent----------

1971 65 92 157 41 59
72 58 93 151 39 61
73 60 92 152 40 60
74 60 98 158 38 62
75 117 139 256 46 54
76 126 126 252 50 50
77 171 84 255 67 33
78 122 114 236 50 50
1979 84 114 198 42 58


Source: [18].





(10)


73


--..J7


. r I I S I I I I S


M A M J J A S 0 N D


Number of cows slaughtered under federal
inspection in the United States, 1971-75.


Source: Table A-5.


1,200



1,100



1,000


900



800



700


600



500



400



0


J F


Figure 4





(11)


/
-a.-.
s


J F M A M J J A S N D

Figure 5 Number of cows slaughtered under federal inspection in
the United States, 1976-80.


Source: Table A-5.





(12)


Table 4 Comparison of largest and
inspected cow slaughter in


second largest months of federally
the United States, 1971-80


Jan.-June July-Dec. Year
Year Ist 2nd Ist 2nd Ist 2nd


1971 June April Nov. Oct. Nov. Oct.

72 June Jan. Aug. Oct. Aug. Oct.

73 Jan. Mar. Nov. Oct. Nov. Jan.

74 Jan. Feb. Oct. Nov. Nov. Dec.

75 June Jan. Oct. Dec. Oct. Dec.

76 Jan. Feb./June Nov. Dec. Jan. Nov.

77 Jan. Mar. Nov. Dec. Nov. Jan.

78 Mar. Jan. Oct. Aug. Jan. Mar.

79 Jan. Mar. Nov. Oct. Jan. Nov.

1980 Jan. Feb. Oct. Dec. Jan. Feb.

Avg. Jan. Mar. Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov.


Source: Table A-5.





(13)


'N


Florida marketing


120





115





110


I'
I\
I
I

1
I
I
I
I


United States
F.I. slaughter


71 .7.I


I I I


J F M A


M J J A S O N D


Figure 6 Indices of United States federally inspected cow slaughter
and cows marketed through Florida auctions, average, 1971-80.


Source: Tables A-4 and A-5.


I





I


I

I


I
I
I





(14)


SEASONALITY IN UNITED STATES AND FLORIDA COW PRICES


Monthly changes in cattle prices, especially of a seasonal nature,
are important as a guide for development of strategies for overwintering
cull cows. In this section a comparison is made between Florida and
United States monthly prices as a guide for these strategies.

Florida

Average monthly prices from 1971-1980 for Utility grade slaughter
cows in Florida are given in Table A-6, and graphed in Figure 7. In the
early years of the 1970s, prices remained fairly constant, with little
or no apparent seasonal variation. The average monthly prices for Cutter
grade slaughter cows, and for all cows sold through Florida auctions are
given in Table A-6.

There has been a continual upward trend in cow prices over the past
10 years in conjunction with inflation. This steady upward trend must
be adjusted when analyzing seasonal prices in individual months. The
inflationary distortion has been adjusted by deflating the prices found
in Table A-6 by using the Index of Prices Received by Farmers for Livestock
Products (Table A-7). The deflated prices (Table A-8) are placed on an
index basis in Table A-9 and graphed in Figure 8.

The indices can be interpreted as follows: the April average of 108
means that, over the period 1971-1980 prices averaged about 8 percent
above the annual average. The graph shows the clear seasonal patterns
with March, April and May about 15 percent above October and November.

The averages are informative and useful, but need to be augmented
with an analysis of annual variations to provide sufficient data for
planning an overwintering program. One aspect of the variations is shown
in Table 5 in which years are divided in half, January-June and July-
December, and a summary given of the month with the highest prices of
Utility grade cows. April is usually the highest month in the first
half while July or December is generally the highest month in the second
half. For the year as a whole, with the exception of 1973 and 1978, the
months in the first half of the year always have the highest prices.
April is first with March and May tying for second.

The low price months in the first half of the year are almost always
January and February, while there is wide dispersion in the second half
with all the months appearing at least once (Table 6). For the year as
a whole, the lowest price month is September, followed by October.

United States

The average monthly prices and indices of Utility grade slaughter
cows at Omaha from 1971 through 1980 are given in Table A-10. In general,
the patterns are about the same, but Florida prices do not reach the peaks
of the Omaha prices and, also, Florida prices drop lower in the fall.

The price differences between Omaha and Florida are given in Table
A-11 and graphed in Figure 9. With the exception of 1979, which was a
year of relatively high prices, Florida prices have almost always been






(15)


60.00 -




50.001979
50.00 *.-


N
N
N
-
-. - -. -


--- .- --


-


I I I I I I I I N
J F M A M 3J A S 0 N


1978

- 1980


1977

1976


1973


1972


1971

1975

1974


I
D (Month)


Figure 7 Average monthly prices of Utility grade slaughter cows in Florida,
1971-80.

Source: Table A-6.


40.00




0
- 30.00
a
o-



20.00


- 40.00
--





- 30.00
Q)
U




20.00






0


L





(16)


J F M


(Month)


Figure 8


Seasonality of Utility grade Florida slaughter cow prices,
deflated index basis, average 1971-80.


Source: Table A-9.


110




105










Table 5 Comparison of highest and second highest monthly prices of Utility grade slaughter
cows in Florida, 1971-1980


Jan.-June July-Dec. Year
Year 1st 2nd Ist 2nd 1st 2nd

1971 Mar. Apr./May Aug./Dec. July Mar. Apr./May

72 May Apr. Nov. Aug./Oct. May/Nov. Apr./Aug./Oct.

73 Feb. Apr. July Nov. Feb. Apr.

74 Jan. May July Aug. Jan. May

75 Feb. Mar./Apr./May Dec. Nov. Feb. Mar./Apr./May

76 May Mar./Apr. July/Nov./Dec. Aug. May Mar./Apr.

77 Mar. Apr. Dec. July/Nov. Mar. Apr.

78 Apr./May Mar. Dec. Nov. Apr./May Mar.

79 Apr. May Aug. July/Dec. Apr. May

1980 Apr. Feb. July Aug. Apr. Feb.

Avg. Apr. Mar./May July Dec. Apr. Mar./May


Source: Table A-9.











Table 6 Comparison of lowest and second lowest monthly prices of Utility grade slaughter cows
in Florida, 1971-1980


Jan.-June July-Dec. Year

Year Ist 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd


1971 Feb. Jan. Aug./Dec. July Aug./Dec. July

72 Jan./Feb. Mar. Sept. Dec. Jan./Feb./Sept. Mar./Dec.

73 Jan. June Sept. Aug. Jan./Sept. Aug.

74 Jan. Feb. Oct. Nov. Oct. Nov.

75 Jan. Jan. Sept. Oct. Sept. Oct.

76 Jan. Feb. Sept. Oct. Jan./Sept. Oct.

77 Jan. Feb. Oct. Sept. Oct. Sept.

78 Jan. Feb. Sept. July/Aug./Oct. Jan. Feb.

79 Jan. Feb. Sept./Nov. Oct. Jan. Nov.

1980 Jan. May Oct. Sept. Oct. Nov.

Avg. Jan. Feb./June Sept. Oct. Sept. Oct.


Source: Table A-9.





(19)


6.00



5.00



4.00



3.00



2.00



1.00



0.00



-1.00


SF M A M J


A S


Month

Figure 9 Monthly price differences for Utility grade slaughter cows,
Florida minus Omaha, 1976-79 and average 1971-79.
Source: Table A-11.


Ase- Average
d 1971-79
I
I


/




/
/


-2.00





(20)


about $2.00 per cwt. above Omaha's prices in January, declining to about
$0.50 above Omaha in the midsummer, and then climbing steeply from October
through December. In 1979 the same pattern prevailed, except that the
differentials were about $1.00 higher than in previous years, with the
winter peaks about $5.00 per cwt. above Omaha in the winter, and $2.00-
$3.00 higher than Omaha in the summer.


MARKETINGS-PRICE RELATIONSHIPS


Another way of comparing the price differences between Omaha and
Florida is by plotting the average monthly Florida marketing against
the price differences between Florida and Omaha to determine the effect
the quantity of Florida cows marketed might have on Florida prices.
The result for 1979 is a very good fit for 8 of the 12 months (Figure 10).
One exception is May and June, a period of the heaviest marketing in
Florida (about 5,000 head monthly through auction markets) but one of
the lightest months of federal cow slaughter (and national cow marketings.
As a consequence, Florida prices are about $1.00-$2.00 higher than Omaha
prices during these months.

The price differences in September and October between Florida and
Omaha are considerably lower than would be expected according to price/
quantity relationships. But, the explanation again lies in comparing
the Florida-national cow marketing patterns. Nationally, September is
much higher than most other months and, while October is one of the
heaviest months nationally, it is one of the lowest months in Florida.
Thus, even though there are a restricted number of cows sold in Florida,
there is a relatively small price differential. The relationship shown
in Figure 10 can be thought of as an elasticity, with the differential
being almost completely inelastic at the lower levels of marketing
(3,100-3,400 head monthly), and more elastic in the 3,500-4,500 head
range.

The same relationship between Florida marketing and the price dif-
ferences is shown in Figure 11 for the period 1971-79. In this case,
the function is almost completely inelastic. September still has the
lowest differential. The largest differentials are all in the winter
months, from November through March, with about a $1.00 decrease into
the April-October period.


ESTIMATION OF PRICE CHANGES: FALL AND WINTER TO SPRING


The data developed in Tables 5 and 6 suggest that January and October
are the first and second lowest price months in Florida for slaughter
cows, while April and May are the highest price months. An analysis is
made in this section to determine the average gain, in terms of price
differences, that could have been obtained in the 1970s from placing
cull cows on feed or pasture during these months.

Table 7 contains a comparison of the average price changes from
October to April and May. The data used in the computations are given




(21)


* Dec.

* Mar




Feb.




Nov.


6





5 -





4 -





3 -





2





1 -


* July


* Oct.


SApr.
Jan.


* May


* Aug.


* Sept.


Monthly marketing (1)000 head)
Price differentials of Utility grade slaughter cows, Florida
minus Omaha, plotted against marketing of all cows through
Florida auctions, 1979.


Source: Tables A-2 and A-11.


0 June


Figure 10


_I




(22)


* Dec.


Nov.
*
Feb.
Jan.


* Mar.


July *


Apr.
May


I Aug. June
Aug. *



Oct.




* Sept.


Average
Florida
through


I I I I I
2 3 4 5 6
Monthly marketing (1,000 head)
price differentials of Utility grade slaughter cows,
minus Omaha, plotted against marketing of all cows
Florida auctions, 1971-1979.


Source: Tables A-2 and A-11.


Figure

















Table 7 Comparison of average price changes from October to April and May, Cutter and Utility grade cull cows in Florida,
1971-1980

Difference, Utility/Utility
Buy Utility grade, sell Utility grade Buy Cutter grade, sell Utility grade and Canner/Utilityb/
Difference Difference
Year Oct.-Apr. Oct.-May May-April / Oct.-Apr. Oct.-May May-April / Oct.-Apr. Oct.-May/
---------------------------------------------------Dollars per cwt.--------------------------------------

1971/72 2.47 3.82 1.35 5.27 6.62 1.35 2.80 2.80
72/73 7.29 6.41 -0.88 10.78 9.90 -0.88 3.49 3.49
73/74 -2.22 -3.82 -1.60 1.82 0.22 -1.60 4.04 4.04
74/75 2.03 3.67 1.64 5.74 7.38 1.64 3.71 3.71
75/76 9.35 9.43 0.08 14.19 14.27 0.08 4.84 4.84
76/77 4.49 3.87 -0.62 7.93 7.31 -0.62 3.44 3.44
77/78 14.00 15.49 1.49 17.58 19.07 1.49 3.58 3.58
78/79 18.27 16.64 -1.63 22.91 21.28 -1.63 4.64 4.64
79/80 -0.85 -4.36 -3.51 3.85 0.34 -3.51 4.70 4.70


Average 6.09 5.68 -0.41 10.09 9.72 -0.37 3.91 3.91

Source: Table A-12.
a/No sign indicates that May has the highest price change; a negative sign indicates April yielded the highest price change.
b/The interpretation is, for example, that regardless whether October placed cattle were sold in April or May, there would
have been an average gain of $3.82 by buying Cutter grade cattle and selling them at the Utility grade.
/For example, $6.62-$3.82 = $2.80 and, $5.27-$2.47 = $2.80.





(24)


in Table A-12. The analysis indicates that, on the average, buying
Utility grade cull cows in October, and selling at the Utility grade in
April, would have yielded an average additional $6.09 per cwt. through
price changes alone. Selling in May rather than April would have brought
about a similar change, $5.68 per cwt. If the cull cows were Cutter
grade upon placement, and were sold at the Utility grade, an average of
$10.09 would have been realized in price changes to April, and $9.72 to
May. The average premium for obtaining a higher grade was $3.91 for
October to April, and $3.52 for October to May (Table 7).

January is another low-price month in which cattlemen could place
cows on feed or pasture in an effort to profit from gain and maximum
price changes. If Utility grade cows were placed on feed in January and
sold at the Utility grade, an average of $3.41 per cwt. price increase
would have been realized by selling them in April (Table 8). In contrast,
an average of $6.78 would have been realized by buying Cutter grade cows
and finishing them to the Utility grade. This is a difference of about
$3.37 due to grade differences.

The net result of comparing placements in the two periods, October-
April and January-April period is that an additional $3.31 per cwt. can
be gained by placing cattle on feed in October rather than January.
There are, of course, various additional costs which could be incurred
as a result, and careful budgeting is required to determine the cost-
benefit relationship.


SUMMARY


Data on marketing cull cows in Florida from 1971-80 indicate that
about half of all cattle sold through Florida auctions are Utility grade.
Approximately 90 percent are slaughter class cows. It was determined
that although there are wide fluctuations between years, there are two
definite periods of heavy marketing, spring and fall. March and August
are the top ranking months. About 50-60 percent of cows and bulls slaugh-
tered in Florida come from auction markets.

Florida cow marketing were compared with United States marketing,
as represented by cows slaughtered under federal inspection. The analysis
shows that United States marketing are heaviest from October through
January, i.e. seasonally opposite of Florida.

Monthly average prices and indices were developed for Florida and
Omaha for the Cutter and Utility grades. It was determined that about
a 15 percent difference exists between trough and peak prices in both
Florida and the United States. April and May are seasonally the highest
price months in both Florida and Omaha.

Florida prices have almost always been about $2.00 per cwt. above
Omaha's prices in January, declining to about $0.50 above Omaha in mid-
summer, and then climbing steeply from October through December. The
differentials were higher in 1979. One reason for Florida having higher
prices is because of the relative isolation by the state from the major
cow slaughtering areas and by being a carcass beef deficit state. Another
















Table 8 Comparison of average price changes from January to April and May, Cutter and Utility grade cull cows in Florida,
1971-80


Buy Utility grade, sell Utility grade Buy Cutter grade, sell Utility grade Difference, Utility/Utility
Difference Difference and Canner/Utility b/
Year Jan.-Apr. Jan.-May May-Apr.A/ Jan.-Apr. Jan.-May May-Apr.l/ Jan.-Apr. Jan.-May
------------------------------------------------Dollars per cwt.-------------------------------------------

1971 0.86 1.04 0.18 3.49 3.67 0.18 2.63 2.63
72 1.01 2.36 1.35 3.59 4.94 1.35 2.58 2.56
73 8.57 7.69 -0.88 9.19 8.31 -0.88 0.62 0.62
74 -2.35 -3.95 -1.60 1.56 0.04 -1.52 3.91 3.99
75 1.48 3.12 1.64 4.84 6.48 1.64 3.36 3.36
76 5.32 5.40 0.08 9.65 9.73 0.08 4.33 4.33
77 3.01 2.39 -0.62 5.95 5.33 -0.62 2.94 2.94
78 8.46 9.95 1.49 11.75 13.24 1.49 3.29 3.29
79 9.78 8.15 -1.63 15.02 13.39 -1.63 5.24 5.24
1980 -2.08 -5.59 -3.51 2.68 -0.83 3.51 4.76 4,76
Avg. 3.41 3.06 -0.35 6.78 6.43 0.35 3.37 3.37


Source: Table A-13.

a/No sign indicates that May has the highest price change; a negative sign indicates April yielded the highest price change.
b'The interpretation is, for example, that regardless whether January placed cattle were sold in April or May, there would
have been an average gain of $3.37 by buying Cutter grade cattle and selling them at the Utility grade.





(26)


reason is that the size of Florida marketing is counter to national mar-
ketings. October, for example, is one of the heaviest months nationally,
but one of the lightest months in Florida.

The seasonal price analysis indicates that the greatest price change,
about $10.00 per cwt. average during 1971-80, could have been obtained
by placing Cutter grade cows on feed or pasture in October, and selling
in April or May. Similar grade placements in January with sale in April
or May would have yielded nearly $7.00 per cwt. In no years would a loss
from price changes have been experienced by placements of Cutter grade
cows in either October or January if the cows had been sold in April at
the Utility grade.





(27)


REFERENCES


[1] Florida Dept. of Agr. Federal-State Cattle Report, Florida.
Florida Crop and Livestock Rpt. Serv.

[2] Florida Dept. of Agr. Florida Agricultural Statistics-Livestock
Summary. Florida Crop and Livestock Rpt. Serv.

[3] Franzmann, Jonn R., and Rodney L. Walker. "Trend Models of Feeder,
Slaughter, and Wholesale Beef Cattle Prices." Amer. J. Ag. Econ.
54(1972):507-512.

[4] Handke, Paul, and Gene Futrell. "Forecasting Guidelines for Choice
Steer and Heifer Prices." Economic Report Series No. 12. Ames:
Iowa State Univ., Jan. 1978.

[5] James, John B. "Factors Affecting Price Differences of Cattle in
the Southwest." Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation. Texas A&M Univ.,
1970.

i [6] Larsen, John T. Seasonality of the Cattle Market. U.S. Dept. of
Agr. ERS-468, 1971.

[7] Mcllroy, Walter. "Application of the Econometric Model, Distributed
Lag, To Forecasting Slaughter Cattle Price." Unpublished Ph.D.
dissertation. Okla. State Univ., 1973.

[8] Oliveira, R.A., C.W. O'Connor, and G.W. Smith. "Short-Run Forecasting
Models of Beef Prices." Paper presented at the Western Agricultural
Economics Association Annual Meeting. Bozeman, Montana, July 1978.

[9] Simpson, James R. "Cattle Cycles: A Guide for Cattlemen." Univ.
of Fla. Food and Resource Econ. Dept. Staff Paper 100. Gainesville:
1978.

[10] Simpson, James R. "An Analysis of Wage and Price Controls and Cattle
Supplies: A Primer for Meat Packers and Processors." Univ. of Fla.
Food and Resource Econ. Dept. Staff Paper 105. Gainesville: 1978.

[11] Simpson, James R. "World Cattle Cycles and the Latin American Beef
Industry." Univ. of Fla. Food and Resource Econ. Dept. Staff Paper
129. Gainesville: 1979.

[12] Stegelin, F.E., and J.R. Simpson. "An Economic Analysis of the
Effect of Increasing Transportation Costs on Florida's Cattle
Feeding Industry." Univ. of Fla. Food and Resource Econ. Dept.
Staff Paper 161r. Gainesville: 1980.

[13] Teigen, Lloyd. "Costs, Loss and Forecasting Error: An Evaluation
of Models for Beef Prices." Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation. Mich.
State Univ., 1973.





(28)


[14] U.S. Dept. of Agr. Agricultural Prices. Washington.

[15] U.S. Dept. of Agr. Livestock and Meat Statistics. Washington.
Various issues.

[16] U.S. Dept. of Agr. Livestock Slaughter. Washington: January 23,
1981.

[17] U.S. Dept. of Agr. Meat and Livestock Situation. Washington.

[18] U.S. Dept. of Agr. Packers and Stockyards Resume. Washington.
Various issues.

[19] Whyte, Charles D. "Dynamic Short-Term Estimating and Forecasting
Models for Wholesale Beef Price." Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation.
Ohio State Univ., 1969.

[20] Yager, William A., R. Clyde Greer, and Oscar Burt. "Optimal Policies
for Marketing Cull Beef Cows." Am. J. Agr. Econ. 62(1980):456-467.













Table A-1--Marketings of slaughter and stocker cows through Florida auctions, 1971-80

Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar.__ April_ __May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
---------- ----------------------------...... Head--------------------------------------------------

Slaughter


1971 3,279 3,461 4,999 3,425 3,288 3,920 2,799 2,652 3,946 3,081
72 3,078 3,163 3,938 3,207 2,380 2,582 2,484 3,646 1,881 3,240
73 3,909 3,591 4,011 3,518 3,660 3,201 3,326 4,106 3,520 4,443
74 3,535 3,340 3,716 3,112 4,194 2,038 4,436 3,547 3,070 5,137
75 4,475 3,603 4,771 5,346 5,009 4,581 5,738 5,070 5,666 6,138
76 5,651 4,787 5,066 5,625 4,715 6,887 4,278 3,910 5,181 4,647
77 5,424 4,261 5,641 5,286 4,667 6,244 4,764 6,355 4,077 4,761
78 4,508 5,154 5,883 5,926 6,286 5,005 3,358 4,424 4,058 4,353
79 3,364 2,602 2,417 2,972 4,276 3,692 2,997 3,669 2,419 3,650
1980 3,448 3,159 3,296 3,754 3,124 2,928 3,157 2,377 2,604 3,113

Stocker

1971 7,360 1,370 1,611 1,370 1,482 2,005 1,410 1,679 2,280 2,052
72 1,761 1,582 1,971 1,432 1,185 1,367 1,500 2,081 544 852
73 749 578 622 416 632 476 487 973 738 1,199
74 506 413 403 462 520 412 617 558 580 1,058
75 580 426 565 424 432 452 745 433 829 853
76 525 481 572 667 527 1,116 389 314 536 560
77 434 546 602 691 441 604 624 707 810 968
78 513 647 919 713 1,076 722 633 831 818 1,330
79 975 806 756 860 945 604 724 734 794 1,027
1980 767 823 532 676 404 608 523 657 705 889


3,290
3,316
3,274
3,292
5,365
4,375
6,529
2,914
2,721
2,112



1,987
929
511
440
679
473
807
845
694
529


2,439 40,579
1,660 34,575
2,412 42,971
2,878 42,295
3,911 59,673
3,976 59,098
2,663 60,672
2,329 54,198
2,635 37,414
2,457 35,529



1,627 20,233
490 15,694
453 7,834
403 6,372
547 6,965
273 6,46C
534 7,768
751 9,798
513 9,432
518 7,631


Source: [2].

















Table A-2-- Number and index of all cows marketed through Florida auctions, 1971-80a/

Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total Avg.
-------------------------------------- -Head------ ---------------------------------------------


4,639
4,839
4,658
4,041
5,055
6,176
4,958
5,021
4,339
4,215


4,831
4,745
4,169
3,753
4,029
5,268
4,807
5,801
3,408
3,982


6,610
5,909
4,633
4,119
5,336
5,638
6,243
6,802
3,173
3,828


4,795
4,639
3,934
3,574
5,770
6,292
5,917
6,639
3,832
4,430


4,770
3,565
4,292
4,714
5,441
5,142
5,108
7,362
5,221
3,528


5,925
3,949
3,677
2,450
5,033
8,003
6,848
5,727
4,296
3,536


4,209
3,984
3,813
5,053
5,483
4,667
5,388
3,991
3,721
3,680


4,331
5,727
5,079
4,105
5,503
4,251
7,062
5,255
4,403
3,034


6,226
2,425
4,258
3,650
6,495
5,717
4,887
4,876
3,213
3,309


5,133
4,092
5,642
6,195
6,991
5,207
5,729
5,605
4,677
4,002


5,277
4,245
3,785
3,732
6,044
4,848
7,336
3,759
3,415
2,641


4,066
2,150
2,865
3,281
4,458
4,249
3,197
3,080
3,148
2,975


60,812
50,269
50,805
48,667
66,638
65,458
67,480
63,918
46,846
43,160


5,068
4,189
4,234
4,056
5,553
5,455
5,623
5,327
3,903
3,597


Avg. 4,794 4,480 5,229 4,983 4,914 4,944 4,398 4,875

IndexYb


91.54
115.52
110.01
99.63
91.03
113.22
88.17
94.26
111.17
117.18


95.32
113.27
98.46
92.53
72.56
96.57
85.49
108.90
87.32
110.71


130.43
141.06
109.42
101.55
96.09
103.35
111.03
127.69
81.30
106.43


94.61
110.74
92.91
88.12
103.91
115.34
105.23
124.63
98,18
123.16


94.12
85.10
101.37
116.22
97.98
94.26
90.84
138.20
133.77
98.09


116.91
94.27
86.84
60.40
90.64
146.71
121.79
107.51
110.07
98.3i


83.05
95.11
90.06
124.58
98.74
85.55
95.82
74.92
95.34
102.31


85.46
136.72
119.96
101.21
99.10
77.93
125.59
98.65
112.81
84.35


4,505 5,327 4,508


122.85
57.89
100.57
89.99
116.96
104.80
86.91
91.53
82.33
92.00


101.28
97.68
133.25
152.74
125.90
95.45
101.89
105.22
119.83
111.26


104.12
101.34
89.40
92.01
108.84
88.87
130.46
70.57
87.50
73.43


3,346 56,405 a,701


80.23
51.32
67.67
80.89
80.28
77.89
56.86
57.82
80.66
82.71


Avg. 103.17 96.11 110.84 105.68 105.00 103.35 94.55 104.18


a/Sum of slaughter and stocker cows, Table A-1.
b/Derived by dividing the annual average of cow marketed by the monthly number


94.58 114,45 94.65 71.63


Thus, the annual average=100.


of cows marketed.






(31)
















Table A-3 --Florida cow inventory and all cattle marketing, 1962-80


Cows as
All cows All cattle a percent
2 years and and calf Cow of all cattle
Year older marketings- marketings- and calves
----------------------------1,000 head------------------------


1962
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
1980


980
995
1,046
1,084
1,089
1,089
1,120
1,180
1,230
1,220
1,266
1,336
1,494
1,670
1,615
1,579
1,410
1,338
1,357


859
861
951
1,005
981
992
915
792
1,214
1,237
1,514
1,189
921


Source: L[].

A/January 1.
bAll sales, auction and direct.
-/Auction markets only.















Table A-4--Marketings of slaughter cows through Florida auctions by month and class of cattle, 1971-80


Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
-------- -------------------------------.. Head----------------------------... ........

Standard

1971 2 3 2 2 2 4 3 5 6 2 2 17 54
72 4 34 21 46 12 37 2 46 3 5 1 7 218
73 14 9 2 3 3 1 5 2 4 2 -- 3 50
74 4 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 3 9 2 -- 35
75 3 3 3 1 5 6 17 22 20 1 2 2 85
76 4 4 6 11 3 3 -- 1 6 5 6 8 57
77 3 1 1 3 -- 5 1 -- 1 -- -- -- 15
78 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2
79 1 -- 2 -- -- -- 3
1980 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -
Commercial

1971 22 37 33 23 22 27 45 26 43 21 19 6 324
72 38 49 206 192 284 273 335 277 88 95 46 42 1,925
73 56 157 226 111 114 90 58 93 32 75 21 71 1,104
74 65 81 44 130 42 30 84 48 45 112 52 45 778
75 36 85 108 95 36 56 121 49 73 72 38 22 791
76 72 101 55 113 57 193 17 23 27 25 39 66 788
77 31 48 52 46 37 34 27 47 17 8 -- 4 351
78 4 21 12 21 15 53 6 30 22 27 5 12 228
79 36 55 34 89 119 67 33 46 51 28 28 52 638
1980 39 44 58 45 56 47 75 46 17 -- 10 13 472
Utility

1971 2,181 2,132 3,083 2,105 2,135 2,358 1,652 1,481 2,161 1,829 1,830 1,534 24,481
72 1,943 2,055 2,399 2,033 1,303 1,378 1,398 2,165 979 1,707 1,773 816 17,916
73 2,233 2,148 2,408 2,122 1,974 1,788 1,980 2,422 2,104 2,468 1,854 1,289 24,790
74 2,176 2,130 2,259 1,774 2,618 1,148 2,602 1,800 1,479 2,630 1,712 1,575 23,903
75 2,367 1,805 2,338 2,774 2,599 2,327 2,824 2,461 2,342 2,626 2,064 1,501 28,028
76 2,439 2,307 2,535 2,770 2,288 3,215 2,073 1,871 2,240 1,934 1,885 1,640 27,197
77 2,419 2,141 2,887 2,459 1,982 2,991 2,236 2,712 1,557 1,918 2,654 1,294 27,250
78 2,237 2,768 3,305 3,386 3,369 2,545 1,669 1,990 2,145 2,279 1,570 1,372 28,635
79 1,656 1,391 1,171 1,589 2,183 2,302 2,139 2,583 1,595 2,347 1,670 1,603 22,229
1980 2,199 2,291 2,165 2,299 1,812 1,847 2,227 1,520 1,556 1,848 1,154 1,425 22,343
(cont.)













Table A-4--Marketings of slaughter cows through Florida auctions by month and class of cattle, 1971-80 (cont.)

Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total
------- --------------------------------- Head----- ----------------------------------------------


Cutter


872 904
584 929
945 1,246
1,384 1,285
2,093 1,877
1,738 1,513
1,977 2,795
1,391 1,941
737 931
774 709


Canner


227 233
157 229
338 343
363 386
678 661
450 502
523 801
292 463
88 95
81 102


1,355 942 1,122
585 1,032 1,116
1,037 1,393 1,042
1,130 1,772 1,186
2,234 2,325 2,313
2,195 1,947 1,915
1,928 2,047 2,902
1,554 1,728 1,149
694 1,097 8V7
890 1,042 707



381 287 317
226 401 380
343 505 357
408 611 340
997 1,114 946
713 736 530
574 788 973
336 318 190
79 178 176
141 201 241


678 12,678
592 9,689
795 12,761
841 13,290
1,730 22,506
1,708 23,613
1,027 23,114
821 20,830
801 12,657
853 10,869


204 3,040
203 2,785
254 4,268
416 4,255
640 8,233
554 7,441
338 7,985
124 4,503
179 1,873
166 1,845


Source: [2].


1971
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
1980


890
873
1,194
993
1,595
2,287
2,240
1,825
1,402
1,002


1,043
812
956
894
1,248
1,809
1,578
1,966
1,029
706


1,498
1,037
993
1,119
1,808
1,859
2,154
2,069
1,044
914


1,097
737
968
907
1,872
2,057
1,975
2,055
1,126
1,184


978
641
1,177
1,136
1,760
1,794
1,947
2,331
1,750
1,126


1,299
751
1,015
643
1,651
2,791
2,491
2,000
1,199
962















Table A-5-- Number and ii.dex of cows slaughtered under federal inspection in the United States, 1971-80

Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total Average
----------------------------------------, hea ------------------------------------

1971 456 400 461 463 453 485 479 468 486 490 500 486 5,627 469
72 460 432 455 406 446 474 440 482 418 480 473 436 5,402 450
73 514 446 482 386 471 449 449 490 435 507 534 496 5,659 472
74 608 481 442 437 449 386 538 608 588 759 756 742 6,794 566
75 786 606 611 683 719 787 913 923 991 1,198 1,081 1,123 10,421 868
76 1,009 760 731 697 680 760 748 790 869 863 904 892 9,704 809
77 849 745 743 627 654 726 695 782 758 818 892 840 9,128 761
78 779 691 693 643 688 676 597 664 610 668 641 562 7,913 659
79 549 440 474 424 452 408 404 452 402 514 533 494 5,546 462
1980 520 432 406 430 431 429 478 507 524 621 565 582 5,925 494


---- --------------------------Inde-----------------------------------------x----

1971 97.2 85.3 98.3 98.7 96.6 103.4 102.1 99.8 103.6 104.5 106.6 103.6
72 102.2 96.0 101.1 90.2 99.1 105.3 97.8 107.1 92.9 106.7 105.1 96.9
73 108.9 94.5 102.1 81.8 99.8 95.1 95.1 103.8 92.2 107.4 113.1 105.1
74 107.4 85.0 78.1 77.2 79.3 68.2 95.1 107.4 103.9 134.1 133.6 131.1
75 87.5 67.5 68.0 76.1 80.1 87.6 101.7 102.8 110.4 133.4 120.4 125.1
76 124.7 93.9 90.4 86.2 84.1 93.9 92.5 97.7 107.4 106.7 111.7 110.4
77 111.6 87.9 97.6 82.4 85.9 95.5 91.3 102.8 99.6 107.5 117.8 110.4
78 118.2 104.9 146.1 97.6 104.4 102.6 90.6 100.8 92.6 101.4 97.3 85.3
79 118.8 95.2 102.6 91.8 97.8 88.3 87.2 97.8 87.0 111.3 115.4 106.9
1980 105.3 87.5 82.2 87.1 87.3 86.9 96.8 102.6 106.1 125.7 114.4 117.8

Avg. 108.2 89.8 96.7 86.9 91.4 92.7 95.0 102.3 99.6 113.9 113.5 109.3

Source: [15].

-/Monthly slaughter divided by average slaughter for each year. Thus, annual averaqe=100.











Table A-6--Average monthly prices of Utility and Cutter grade slaughter cows, and all slaughter cows sold through
Florida auctions, 1971-80

Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Avg.

--------------------------------Dollars per cwt.----------Do--------------------------------- -------------

Utility


1971 22.40
72 24.17
73 26.59
74 34.28
75 20.33
76 24.96
77 25.04
78 29.47
79 49.81
1980 51.43



1971 19.77
72 21.59
73 25.97
74 30.37
75 16.94
76 20.63
77 22.10
78 26.18
79 44.57
1980 46.67



1971 21.28
72 22.99
73 27.61
74 32.29
75 18.20
76 21.92
77 22.90
78 27.33
79 46.46
1980 49.28

Source: Fl1.


23.14
25.11
33.85
35.50
20.96
27.37
26.23
32.67
55.27
53.19



20.54
22.33
29.27
31.27
17.38
23.02
23.13
28.16
49.81
48.20



21.90
23.98
31.82
33.66
18.81
24.65
24.19
30.14
52.35
51.60


23.66 23.26
25.45 25.18
34.89 35.16
34.14 31.93
20.90 21.81
28.74 30.28
28.27 28.05
35.14 37.93
58.14 59.59
50.75 49.35



20.83 20.42
22.52 22.64
30.83 31.37
30.54 28.26
17.11 17.55
24.53 25.62
25.11 24.82
30.45 32.88
53.44 55.39
45.22 45.17



22.28 21.95
24.25 24.26
33.00 33.21
32.32 29.91
18.58 19.29
26.01 27.31
26.31 25.79
32.57 35.29
55.14 57.34
48.55 47.39


23.44
26.53
34.28
30.33
23.45
30.36
27.43
39.42
57.96
45.84



20.68
23.94
30.89
26.46
18.75
25.79
23.74
34.88
53.96
41.86



22.29
25.62
32.21
28.43
20.59
27.28
24.68
36.81
55.78
44.01


23.32
26.73
34.16
27.86
22.38
28.19
26.89
37.65
54.10
44.33



20.65
24.30
30.43
24.74
17.22
24.28
23.38
33.48
49.47
40.20


22.81
27.35
34.89
26.46
20.91
26.01
25.88
38.79
50.84
45.68


Cutter

20.27
24.53
31.10
23.16
15.50
22.53
22.39
34.44
46.87
41.46


All Cows


22.02
25.87
32.07
26.06
19.39
25.72
24.59
35.22
52.25
42.69


21.45
26.44
32.82
24.77
17.71
23.64
23.58
36.13
49.56
44.32


22.46 22.52
27.30 26.59
39.18 34.48
23.71 21.95
20.77 20.25
25.11 23.74
24.99 24.76
38.61 39.77
51.03 51.17
46.27 45.14



19.53 19.72
24.31 23.43
34.53 30.51
19.73 17.91
15.62 15.39
21.71 20.24
22.04 21.57
34.52 35.67
45.85 46.41
42.72 40.72



20.88 20.90
26.22 24.61
36.79 32.36
21.25 19.23
17.61 16.68
22.74 21.18
22.80 22.18
35.74 37.30
49.47 49.41
44.74 42.97


22.76
27.87
34.15
19.78
20.93
23.56
23.93
41.32
50.20
44.42



19.91
24.38
30.11
16.07
16.09
20.12
20.35
36.68
45.50
39.50



21.25
25.78
31.73
17.53
17.34
20.86
21.11
38.62
48.18
41.98


22.90
28.15
33.69
19.56
22.30
23.62
25.06
42.78
50.17
45.18



20.40
24.59
29.60
15.71
17.23
19.48
21.72
37.95
46.16
39.63



21.42
26.02
31.38
17.26
18.34
20.80
22.41
40.06
48.21
41.86


23.29 23.04
28.32 26.38
32.59 34.35
20.78 27.51
22.85 21.45
24.60 26.67
26.89 26.18
46.18 37.76
52.56 53.14
45.18 46.40



20.63 20.30
24.78 23.58
28.30 30.29
16.79 22.78
18.39 16.85
21.17 22.45
23.30 22.73
40.50 33.25
46.68 49.10
40.54 42.66



22.05 21.67
26.04 25.11
30.09 32.16
18.33 24.97
19.36 18.42
22.08 23.83
22.40 23.74
43.49 35.11
49.91 51.20
42.75 45.18






(36)
















Table A-7-- Index, prices received by farmers for livestock and livestock products 1971-80/


Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

---------------------------- 1967=100-------------- ----------------------

1971 111 119 116 115 116 115 117 119 119 120 121 123
72 128 133 131 127 131 135 138 137 140 140 139 147
73 157 165 177 173 175 178 186 225 203 190 183 179
74 194 193 181 171 158 143 157 164 157 157 153 153
75 153 151 152 158 171 176 181 180 190 189 182 184
76 181 182 178 186 185 184 179 175 172 165 162 169
77 170 174 171 172 176 173 179 177 177 176 174 180
78 185 196 204 209 217 219 217 217 225 232 228 239
79 252 264 274 272 269 255 249 242 254 247 251 256
1980 253 255 251 232 231 237 251 262 263 263 259 258

Source: [14].

a/For the United States as a whole.













Table A-8-- Average deflated (1967=100) monthly prices of Utility and Cutter grade slaughter cows sold through Florida
auctions, 1971-1980


Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Avg.
----------------------------------------------Dollars per cwt.-------------------------------------------------

Utility

1971 20.18 19.45 20.40 20.23 20.21 20.28 19.50 18.88 18.93 18.97 18.93 18.94 19.58
72 18.89 18.88 19.43 19.83 20.26 19.80 19.82 19.93 19.00 19.91 20.26 19.27 19.61
73 16.94 20.52 19.72 20.33 19.59 19.20 18.76 17.42 16.99 17.98 18.41 18.21 18.68
74 17.67 18.40 18.87 18.68 19.20 19.49 16.86 14.46 13.98 12.60 12.79 13.59 16.39
75 13.29 13.88 13.75 13.81 13.72 12.72 11.56 11.54 10.66 11.08 12.26 12.42 12.56
76 13.79 15.04 16.15 16.28 16.41 15.32 14.53 14.35 13.81 14.28 14.58 14.56 14.93
77 14.73 15.08 16.54 16.31 15.59 15.55 14.46 14.12 13.99 13.60 14.41 14.94 14.95
78 15.93 16.67 17.32 18.15 18.17 17.20 17.88 17.80 17.68 17.81 18.77 19.33 17.73
79 19.77 20.94 21.22 21.91 21.55 21.22 20.42 21.09 20.15 20.33 19.99 20.54 20.76 ,
1980 20.33 20.86 20.22 21.28 19.85 18.71 18.20 17.66 17.17 16.89 17.45 17.53 18.85

Cutter

1971 17.81 17.26 17.96 17.76 17.83 17.96 17.33 16.42 16.58 16.60 16.86 16.78 17.26
72 16.87 16.79 17.19 17.83 18.28 18.00 17.78 17.75 16.74 17.42 17.69 16.63 17.41
73 16.55 17.74 17.42 18.14 17.66 17.10 16.72 15.35 15.03 15.85 16.18 15.81 16.62
74 15.66 16.21 16.88 16.53 16.76 17.30 14.76 12.03 11.41 10.24 10.27 10.98 14.08
75 11.08 11.51 11.26 11.11 10.97 9.79 6.57 8.68 8.10 8.52 9.47 10.00 9.93
76 11.40 12.65 13.78 13.78 13.94 13.20 12.59 12.41 11.77 12.20 12.03 12.53 12.69
77 13.00 13.30 14.69 14.43 13.49 13.52 12.51 12.46 12.19 11.57 12.49 12.95 13.05
78 14.16 14.37 14.39 15.74 16.08 15.29 15.87 15.91 15.86 15.81 16.65 16.95 15.59
79 17.69 18.87 19.51 20.37 20.06 19.40 18.83 18.95 18.28 18.43 18.39 18.24 18.92
1980 18.45 18.91 18.02 19.47 18.13 16.97 16.52 16.31 15.49 15.02 15.31 15.72 17.03


Source: Calculated from Tables A-6 and A-7.






(38)













Table A-9-- Index of deflated average monthly prices of Utility and Cutter grade slaughter
cows sold through Florida auctions, 1971-1980

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
----------------------------------nDollars per ecwt.----------------------------

Utility

1971 103 100 105 104 104 104 100 97 97 97 97 97
72 97 97 99 102 104 101 101 102 97 102 104 99
73 91 110 106 109 105 103 101 94 91 97 99 98
74 108 113 116 114 118 119 103 89 86 77 78 83
75 106 111 110 110 110 102 92 92 85 89 98 99
76 93 101 109 109 110 103 98 97 93 96 98 98
77 99 101 111 109 105 104 97 95 94 91 97 100
78 90 94 98 103 103 97 101 101 100 101 106 109
79 96 101 103 106 104 103 99 102 97 98 97 99
1980 108 111 108 113 106 100 97 94 91 90 93 93
Avg. 99 104 107 108 107 104 99 96 93 94 97 98

Cutter

1971 104 100 104 103 104 104 101 96 96 97 98 98
72 97 97 99 103 105 104 103 102 97 100 102 96
73 100 107 105 110 107 103 101 93 91 96 98 96
74 112 116 120 118 119 123 105 86 81 73 73 78
75 112 116 114 112 111 99 87 88 82 86 96 101
76 90 100 109 109 110 104 100 98 93 97 95 99
77 100 102 113 111 104 104 96 96 94 89 96 100
78 91 93 93 101 104 98 102 102 102 102 107 109
79 94 100 104 108 106 103 100 101 97 98 98 97
1980 109 111 106 115 107 100 97 96 91 89 90 93
Avg. 101 104 107 109 108 104 99 86 92 93 96 97


Source: Calculated from Table A-7.















Table A-10-- Average monthly prices of Utility grade slaughter cows, Omaha, 1971-80

Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average
------------------------------------------------------- Dollars per cwt.-----------------------------------------------------


1971 19.98 20.98 22.03 21.48 22.30 22.03 21.68 21.72 21.84 22.30 21.45 21.64 21.62
72 22.61 23.80 24.73 24.70 25.51 26.00 26.22 26.18 26.57 26.19 24.98 25.02 25.21

73 26.67 31.43 33.90 33.59 34.26 33.09 34.22 37.56 34.58 33.68 30.71 30.14 32.82

74 31.45 32.65 31.76 30.50 27.67 26.39 24.22 24.54 22.56 19.68 17.62 17.67 25.56

75 16.82 18.18 19.45 21.67 23.55 23.32 22.00 21.29 22.45 22.01 20.73 21.64 21.09

76 23.26 25.90 27.45 30.72 30.24 27.47 25.80 25.10 22.90 22.72 20.59 21.60 25.31

77 22.95 23.88 26.67 27.63 26.57 25.64 25.23 25.38 26.12 24.89 23.80 25.02 25.32

78 27.59 30.34 32.44 36.94 39.21 37.61 38.09 37.85 39.75 40.46 39.30 41.80 36.78

79 47.33 50.81 52.94 57.00 55.51 50.60 47.80 48.33 49.65 47.71 46.49 46.98 50.10

1980 47.94 51.22 48.80 45.73 42.78 44.06 43.33 45.53 46.56 45.93 43.91 42.92 45.73


Source: [15] and [17].
















Table A-ll-- Price difference between Omaha and Florida, Utility grade slaughter cows, 1971-198O/-


Month
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average
-------------------------------------------Dollars per cwt.---------------------------------------------

1971 2.42 2.16 1.63 1.78 1.14 1.29 1.13 0.74 0.68 0.48 1.45 1.65 1.38
72 1.56 1.31 0.72 0.48 1.02 0.73 1.13 1.12 0.02 1.68 3.17 3.30 1.35
73 -0.08 2.42 0.99 1.57 0.02 1.07 0.67 1.62 -0.10 0.47 2.98 2.45 1.17
74 2.83 2.85 Z.38 1.43 2.66 1.47 2.64 1.92 1.15 2.27 2.16 3.11 2.24
75 3.51 2.78 1.45 0.14 -0.01 -0.94 -1.09 -0.52 -2.20 -1.08 1.52 1.21 0.39
76 1.70 1.47 1.29 -0.44 0.12 0.72 0.21 0.01 0.84 0.84 3.03 3.00 1.07
77 2.09 2.35 1.60 0.42 0.86 1.25 0.65 -0.39 -1.36 -0.96 1.26 1.87 0.80
78 1.88 2.33 2.70 0.99 0.21 0.04 0.70 0.76 0.02 0.86 3.48 4.33 1.53
79 2.48 4.46 5.20 2.59 2.45 3.50 3.04 2.15 1.52 2.48 3.68 5.58 3.26
1980 3.49 1.97 1.95 3.62 3.06 0.27 2.35 0.74 -1.42 -1.51 1.27 2.26 0.67
Avg. 2.19 2.41 1.99 1.26 1.15 0.94 1.14 0.82 0.09 0.55 2.40 2.88 1.39

Source: Computed from Table A-6 and A-9.

A/Florida minus Omaha, i.e. a positive number means the Florida price is higher than the Omaha price.














Table A-12-- Average price changes from October to April and May, Cutter and Utility grade cull cows in Florida, 1971-1980


Buy Utility grade, sell Utility grade Buy Cutter grade, sell Utility grade
Buy Sell Difference, Sell Difference, Buy Sell Difference, Sell Difference,
Year Oct. April April-Oct. May May-Oct. Oct. April April-Oct. May May-Oct.

------------------------------------------------Dollars per cwt.-------------------------------------------------

1971/72 22.71 25.18 2.47 26.53 3.82 19.91 25.18 5.27 26.53 6.62
72/73 27.87 35.16 7.29 34.28 6.41 24.38 35.16 10.78 34.28 9.90
73/74 34.15 31.93 -2.22 30.33 -3.82 30.11 31.93 1.82 30.33 0.22
74/75 19.78 21.81 2.03 23.45 3.67 16.07 21.81 5.74 23.45 7.38
75/76 20.93 30.28 9.35 30.36 9.43 16.09 30.28 14.19 30.36 14.27
76/77 23.56 28.05 4.49 27.43 3.87 20.12 28.05 7.93 27.43 7.31
77/78 23.93 37.93 14.00 39.42 15.49 20.35 37.93 17.58 39.42 19.07
78/79 41.32 59.59 18.27 57.96 16.64 36.68 59.59 22.91 57.96 21.28
79/80 50.20 49.35 -0.85 45.84 -4.36 45.50 49.35 3.85 45.84 0.34


Source: Table A-6.





















Table A-13-- Average price changes from January to April and May, Cutter and Utility grade cull cows in Florida, 1971-1980


Buy Utility grade, sell Utility grade
Buy Sell Difference, Sell Difference,
Year Jan. April April-Jan. May May-Jan.


Buy Cutter
Buy Sell
Jan. April


grade, sell
Difference
April-Jan.


Utility grade
Sell Difference,
May May-Jan.


--- ---------------------------------------Dollars per cwt.-----------------------------------------------


22.40
24.17
26.59
34.28
20.33
24.96
25.04
29.47
49.81
51.43


23.26
25.18
35.16
31.93
21.81
30.28
28.05
37.93
59.59
49.35


0.86
1.01
8.57
-2.35
1.48
5.32
3.01
8.46
9.78
-2.08


23.44
26.53
34.28
30.33
23.45
30.36
27.43
39.42
57.96
45.84


1.04
2.36
7.69
-3.95
3.12
5.40
2.39
9.95
8.15
-5.59


19.77
21.59
25.97
30.37
16.97
20.63
22.10
26.18
44.57
46.67


23.26
25.18
35.16
31.93
21.81
30.28
28.05
37.93
59.59
49.35


3.49
3.59
9.19
1.56
4.84
9.65
5.95
11.75
15.02
2.68


23.44
26.53
34.28
30.33
23.45
30.36
27.43
39.42
57.96
45.84


3.67
4.94
8.31
-0.04
6.4F
9.73
5.33
13.24
13.39
-0.83


Source: Table A-6.


1971
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
1980




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