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Title: Interview with G. Dunn
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Title: Interview with G. Dunn
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Language: English
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Spatial Coverage: 12025
Miami-Dade County (Fla.) -- History.
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Funding: This text has been transcribed from an audio or video oral history. Digitization was funded by a gift from Caleb J. and Michele B. Grimes.
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Source Institution: Samuel Proctor Oral History Program, Department of History, University of Florida
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RED 9
1/26/67
DUNN interviewing
POLLY REDFORD









D: weather bureau here in Miami?


R: Since 1911.

and things was
D: What is your present staff.and I amazed in the amount of things going


on here.


R: Yes. Actually, our present staff is eighty-eight, and,of course, people


wonder how could you possibly use eighty-eight people, but that includes


the and international aviation. That includes a tropical


analysis center which serves not only the tropical and sub-tropical portions


of the United States, but the Central American, the Carribean, and well out


over the Atlantic, and that is the international aviation route from the


Carribean. All depend upon materials for and, then, in addition



to that, we are a communications center. We are the relay point at weather


between Central and South America and the United States. In other words,


all of South American countries and Central American countries, the


weather services and the Carribean are dependent upon the broadcast of










RED 9


R: Miami for their weather information and in turn, we take the weather


observations from South and Central America relay them to Washington


where in turn they are relayed to Europe and any other area of the


world that's interested.


D: Well, I had no idea that it was so big. Now, do you.. Is this one



of the biggest in the country?


R: Yes, this is probably the largest office outside of Central

hadn't
D: I realize that. Well, that's fascinating. Well, that's right


up my alley. Now, in


talking about the climate of South Florida, well, supposing that we just

If characterize
start by my asking you, you were to the climate of South


Florida, how would you do so? in it's broadest and when I mean South


Florida I would say that portion from Lake Okechobee from the Palm Beach


on down.


R: The climate of South Florida is classified as sub-tropical marine


featured by.a long, warm, moist summer with abundant rainfall followed


by a comparatively mild dry winter. The marine influence is evidenced

rain
by the low, daily temperature as the rapid warming of the cold air


masses that come down over this area. Another way of looking at it is










RED 9


R: it might be said that we have a monsoon climate, not to the extent


that they do in India and Southeast Asia, but nevertheless, a tremendous


change between winter and summer. In the summertime the daily winds

ing
from the southeast that bring^in this warm,moist air as I said traverse

tropical prevailing
the^Atlantic. In the wintertime, the 'iinds have a come


from it and much of our air as originally come down from the Artic in

even
Canada and Alaska andsometimes coming over from Siberia, but nevertheless


a warm and modified as the moves southward and in some places


coming in from the northeast


D: Well, what does monsoon mean? When somebody says that monsoons ,

of course,
when you think of monsoons, you think of India and the jungles and


the rain and, but so monsoon must have a technical meaning. Say,if you


were to define a monsoon, what would that

a
R: I f we define it in the strictest technical sense,"monsoon" means wind


system. In other words, when the winds are conservative, that is they


change comparatively little with time over a long period. For example,


in India, Southeast Asia, in the wintertime, the winds are from the


northeast, which mean that they come off of continental Asia, although


at Singapore, they may have had a trajectory over water. In the summertime,











RED 9


R: they're from the southwest. In other words, a long trajectory over


the Indian Ocean, but in the popular sense monsoon has come to mean


when they speak of the monsoon season, they are speaking of the rainy

D: wind
season. That's when the turns around to come up.
R:
At the ocean, yeah.
D: Now, at one point, now let s talk about the Trade Winds because I .came


up with this before when I was writing something and I talked with

a
someone here in the weather bureau and our southwest wind that we have in

if you would.
the summer is.. Well, just explain about that, I recall that it was a


wind that was the remains of the Trade Winds which had changed slightly


in its direction. I wonder if you could amplify it.


R: Well, it's .. Through out the year, we have an area type pressure over


the Atlantic Ocean and I think all oceans have coming from that area


high pressure. Then, in the Atlantic it is called the Azore Burmuda


and the cyclone. Now it varies in intensity and in positions to some


extent from winter to summer. In summer, it is stronger, it's not of

more of its
its^wintertime position and underneath this area coming from the area


of high pressure around which there is a clockwise circulation


so the clockwise circulation means that underneath the winds are from


an easterly direction. That is, it may be northeast. It is northeast









RED 9


R: on the eastern side but east, you might say, in the middle, but by


the time it arrives over here in Florida it is southeast. Now, at


times in the winter, the Azores, Burmuda, and Palm may be


a little stronger than normal. At times it may move a little north


of its normal wintertime position, and we may get under the influence of


Trade Winds. even in the winter, and get a wind somewhere between

a
northeast and southeast. For example, right now


D: That's what we are having right now.


R: Yes, that's light. We're experiencing a comparatively warm and comparatively


rainy period and, in fact, it's unusually moist.


D: It's just like summer.


R: Yes.

Except winds are from
D: ,the northeast instead of from the southeast.


R: That's right. So again we are actually getting a Trade Winds again.

that now
in the middle of the winter.D:So.the winds that blow are the northeast
I mean,
or southeast Trades? You won't hear about the Trade


Is it true that Trade Winds blow here or


R: Yes. It is so. truly a Trade Wi.nd. It is a fine steady wind. And


this is true particularly in the summer. In the winter it may be a










RED 9

and you may have a
R: a little more variable, Continental Northwesterly Wind


when temperatures are below normal and or you may have the Trade Winds


when the temperatures get above normal, but throughout the summer, we're


in a Trade Winds regime. From day to day there is very little variation.


The winds are predominately from the northeast. Now, right over land and


immediately along the shoreline if the pressure gradients are weak, we may


during the night have a purely thermal wind which may be a land breeze.


D: Yeah.


R: But you go out to sea five or six miles and you get back into the Trade Winds.

Northeast, this is
D: Well, then, would it be correct then to say this is the.so-called Northeast


Trades?, except because we are far from this Azore-Bermuda High it is sort

Southeast?
of drifted down to the
generally
R: Yes, sometimes. That is correct. In other words, in this clockwise


circulation we're way over on the let's see, it would be on the left hand


side and the winds have started to rotate northward on the west side of


this anti-cyclone.


D: In other words, what we really get here is to popularize it dreadfully.


These are the same Trade Winds that blew Columbus over here.


R: Exactly, that is where there is a Northeast Trade that he implanted

r-











RED 9

or
R: in the region of the Cape Birds,.the Canaries, there's this same


Northeast by East Trade that you encounter in San Juan, Puerto Rico


but by the time that they arrive at Florida they have turned just a

now
little bit and are^Southeast, but they are still Trade Wind s.
D: They are still the Trade Winds.
D: Well, that's what hung me up last time. Now listen, this is


as long as we're talking about. I'm fascinated with the weather.


Always have been, ad we do a good deal of boating. My husband and I


and I am very interested to know after we aside


Why is it that when we get here in the winter to a greater extent, but


even in summer the wind can be blowing in one direction here in Miami

to
for ten days, but the minute that you go out inthe Gulf stream


you can get an entirely different direction and intensity and wind.


And over the Gulf Stream which won't be blowing in the fall on the lake.


R: The reason for that is that the direction and the velocity of the wind


is produced by two principle factors: One, is the pressure gradient.


In other words, the difference in pressure between points of the North


and South and West. In other words, you have a pressure gradient and


the wind should in normal years proportionate to this pressure gradient.


In other words say that










RED 9


D: There's a high pressure here


R: If you have high pressure at Jacksonville and much lower pressure at


Miami, you will have a strong easterly wind. Now, there's also,


a second factor, which determines wind direction and velocity and that's


known as the termal wind because air that is cold is heavy


Air that is warm is light because you are familiar with the circulations

if you
inside a room ^ have heart heat. In other words, warm air being


lighter rises to the top.


D: Rises to the top.


R: Now,you can see that if you have mass that is heavy in one area and


another mass that is lighter, the heavier air is going to push the


lighter air out of the way. In other uords, the air that is heavy


exerts a certain pressure and will move the lighter air. So, over


the water and this is particularly true in the summertime and it is


even quite true in the wintertime that the air is homogeneous. That is,


it is the same temperature throughout. All right. Overland you
absorbtion
reflection during
get the of heat in the daytime from the sun and


D: over the land


R: That's right. The heat absortant factor of a black surface.









RED 9


R: is much greater than over a light surface, and it is also much greater


over land than it is over water. Now, also, at night the radiation


factor. That is, the loss of heat to the outer atmosphere works


the same way.


D: Greater on the land.


R: Much greater from a black surface than it is from a white surface.


And much greater from land than it is over water. so you have a much


greater variation in the temperature between day andnight over land


than you do over water, and you find even on Miami Beach that because

the
ofproximity to water that there's a much less variation in temperature


between day and than it is even a few miles inland. For example,


we have plenty of during the winter time when if the gradients


of light if it's a clear still night, something that is perfect for


radiation over land that the temperature in the agricultural areas


and around homestead will be thirty degrees lower than the temperature


at the same time on land at Miami Beach.

a little bit
D: Well, that is one of the questions that I was going to talk to^later on.


I wanted


R: Coming back to your ortinal question:










RED 9


R: The reason why, you'll find different winds out of the middle of the


Gulf Stream than you will one, two, three miles off shore is that


you have this thermal factor influencing the wind very close to land.


Then, in the middle of the day and during the heat


of the day, and in the cool morning hours whereas the thermal factor


is not present out of the middle of the Gulf Stream.


D: It's an extraordinary experience because you know, on Sundays when you

you can
go out, ^see the Gulf Stream and the two waters where they meet

flat
It's a very fine line and


R: Yeah.

at those places
may
D: And youoften have very sharp, thin line. You can see the winds the


way it's coming from one direction because it's quite amazing.

the reason
R: And this iswhy the various critics and the small boat people in the


sense that they never make a correct forecast because of the fact that


we simply cannot describe in a comparatively short marine forecast


these variations which they will encounter right close to shore and


what you will encounter out in the middle of the Gulf Stream.


In other words


D: ha!ha!
.n-









RED 9


R:


you don't give them the good forecast.


D:


R: Yeah.


D: Well, I listen religiously to broadcasts over WCT. Every morning

your
at seven thirty I tune in so I know all ^people. I mean, I know


their names like all these people


I've never seen.


R:
R:

D: You know Commodore Roseman's book on "Old Days in Coconut Grove". No,


I don't believe I do.
D: Surely.
D: It is THE historical work on this area and he has some notes on South


Florida climate.


R: Why don't I make a note of that. We have a certain amount of money to


add a few books to our library of the year.


D: Well, this is quite interesting and I think, for instance,


R: What's the name of this book "The Commodore's


You can get it through .. The publisher is


D: Well, wait a minute It'S BEEn redone by the Historical Association











RED 9

R: OK.
D: You can just call them up, And he has some and he came here in

eighteen
the.seventies and he was studying. He was writing some interesting


notes on South Florida climate. For instance, here's one: In 1917

exposed
I found three quarter inch thickness on an ^ water bucket in


Coconut Grove, and then, he talks about the great


that came down and were unable to


because the frost had nipped the insects, and he also, talks to


He discusses the entire weather. Some of the things and the frost line


and the whole bit. Now, I want to talk to ask you two questions:


for his background for this. I don't know exactly what the line, but


there is a line that is drawn from about Palm Beach southward,runs


from Palm Beach roughly, I believe, southwesterly direction, which is

trees won't grow.
a line beyond which certain^. go., "or instance the light trees,


and the mangoes you can grow them up to Palm Beach, but not further.


and you can grow them in Ft. Lauderdale and you can, grow them at


Homestead, but you can't just grow them in I don't


know exactly where the line is.


R: Yes. Yes.


12










RED 9


D: Could you roughly indicate where this line is and explain what it is?
What it means?
R:
I think that I have to say that I'm really unfamiliar with this line


And such line, I think would have to based on say on what some particular


trees would tolerate, but certain other trees, some citrus fruit trees


and so forth might tolerate. The line might be either further south


or further north. I don't think there is any magic line. We're not


positive that drought has ever occurred at Flamingo, but we think that


it has. It is our opinion that frost has occurred at one time or another


at Fredrick Point on the mainland of the United States. We know


that at least, within the past couple hundred years no frost has occurred

of the
at Key West. Probably, no frost has occurred on manyFlorida Keys.

but there's
so Key Largo is, perhaps, a little unpleasant, a magic line across


certainly it is not a Frost Line, not a Freeze Line, that you have mentioned.


but apparently a certain two or three trees have been selected and a


point has been determined where they will or will not grow, dependent



upon the frost and the temperature, but you could select two or three


other trees and would put the line somewhere else.


D: Well, this maybe all new, but now how is frost defined for scientific


13










RED 9


D: purposes?


R: Well, frost is nothing more than frozen dew.


D: I mean would you define frost as the presence of frozen dew or do you


define frost as a 320 for a certain amount of moisture?


R: We must observe this frozen moisture on the plant's grass and so forth.


In other words, it really is frozen dew. If you want, I can look and

does
see what kind of glossary ^define it, but it is not. It does not


determine. We do not say frost has occurred even if the temperature

deposit
goes to twenty-eight unless we see this of frozen dew.


D: Why is that?


R: Well, because there is no frost. There's no visible frost unless you


are able to see it. For example,


D: That would mean that it would be different because on moist nights you

likely
would be more apt to get frost than you would on a very cold


For instance, water comes down, but when it's dry you couldn't get


that,would you?


R: Yeah, but that is of no importance as far as vegetation is concerned.


The occunence or the non-occurrence of frost is not important, but the


occurrence or non-occurrence of freezing temperature. Well,










RED 9


R:


D: I'm confused because when you people give a frost warning,


I assumed that frost meant damage to plants.


R: Well, of course, if you have drought, it means that the temperature


is freezing, but you can also, have freezing temperatures without frost.


which will do just as much or even more damage.


D: I think, a frost line is kind of a


R: The mere existence of frost is not the important thing. I think. For


example, you get twenty or twenty-five mile an hour wind with the


temperature thrity-one and it's going to do much more damage to vegetation

no
It'o going to be a much greater freeze burn than say wind at all and


a deposit of frost with a temperature of thirty-one and actually the

D: I see.
frost may act as a bit of a protection to the plants sometimes the


in fact, usually, if there's no wind, even with frost there'll be less


damage to a plant than if there is no frost and


D: I think that the things that's confusing is the use of the words

implies the plant
"frost warning! and "frost line"^that the frost itself damages., you see.


When you think of the frost line, is that the line beyond which your



15










RED 9


D: actual


or is it a line of plant damage?


R: Well, I think that this time is used by the num more


than it is by the meteorologists, and I think the modern meteorologist


is using it in a broad sense. He's using "buck freezing" temperatures

Just me
and the actual occurrence of frost. let take a quick look here and





D: Well, I keep looking and I have to flip over this tape in half and


hour yet but I have to be conscious of this from time to time.


D: While you are looking at that, I am going to look here.


R: Actually, frost is a deposit of frozen water on plants. However, there


is a term black frost which does mean that freeze damage had occurred


without any deposit of what we call white frost.

D: Dw temperature
D: High winds?


R: Yeah. And then, the frost line is defined by the meteorologists as the


maximum depth of frozen ground during the winter.


R:
D:


R: Well, that's going at it in a little different way.









RED 9

R: Not the way you are use to here.
D: In this book of Monroe's that you will be very interested in reading


incidentally, you will aijoy just for this reminiscences. Monroe was


an interesting fellow who came down here in the seventies and lived



in Coconut Grove and on Biscayne Bay and was a rather intelligent


fellow and simply observed everything from weather to Indians to


shipwrecks to the climate and groupings and so that you have a


very interesting record of what


and he had a theory which I had heard repeatedly up there was that the

warming affect of
was hat the warm ar affected he water implies not only to the Gulf


Stream, and to the Gulf of Mexico but to the great water


area on the so from here to quotes Monroe


saying so the frost line if there is such a mark moves spasmodically


down the state as drainage decreased the water area and apparently

here
influences the temperature and this so many of the old timersbelieve


that



but by the water on the Everglades, Ocheechobee, etc. and then, I


would like your professional opinion on that. Is that true or false


or don't know or


17










RED 9


R: There's no question about it that if man is significantly modifying


his own climate. Well, with this respect to the drainage of the state?

as a whole has
Well, I would not say that the drainage of the state


made only a great difference in the position of say some so-called


frost line, but of course, the greatest water area is the Florida


Everglades. and I think that our drainage say along the eastern


edge of the Everglades and the drainage in this area from Palm Beach


on down to Florida city and so forth has undoubtedly significantly


modified our climate.a degree or two. In other words it's causing


daytime maximum temperature in summer to be higher. Minimum night time


temperature in the winter to say to be one or two degrees warmer.


because


D: Warmer?


R: Colder. Colder. Excuse me. Because of the fact that again we have

absorbs heat
mentioned that since water -^at a slower rate than land


from the sun in the daytime and radiates heat to the outer at_-osphere


at a much slower rate at night that the temperature of the water is


comparatively conservative. Therefore, when temperatures are below


18










RED 9


R: normal, it tends to modify it and in other words keep it closer


to normal and when the temperature is above normal, it again


modifies it, and it -keeps the temperature a little cooler than


it would otherwise be. so that few


reduction and that water area in the Glades. We are changing our climate


slightly.

The quest nwe then encounter is
D: Yeah.. now significant and how great do you believe? Is it


just a question do you believe of a degree or two on the northern


and a degree or two on a hot summer day or


R: But I think at the present time that it is a matter of a degree or two.


either way, that is. A degree or two warmer in the summer and a


degree or two colder in the winter, but


if drainage continues, if more warm land, warm more of the Everglades


drainage this could increase still further.


D: Would it just be unfair to ask, opposing that we just take the Everglades


now and just get them as dry as a bone, how much do you think is the


best educated guess To me it's just a question, but a well Do you


think it would make a tremendous difference if we were to dzy up the


Everglades completely?










RED 9


R: This would have to be an estimate.


D: Yeah.

this.
R: I remember I made an effort to calculate Now, let's ..not talk about


averages, but let's talk say about an intrusion of a cold -in the


winter time, and I think that if the Everglades were entirely drained


and the ground was dry, that it would under certain conditions probably


might make a difference of five or six degrees. In other words


five or six degrees colder than one of these air mass intrusions in


the wintertime. And then, when in summer I think that it could easily


four or five degrees difference in the maximum temperature in the


middle of the day. Now, let me illustrate


D: Can I interrrupt you just one moment?


R: Yeah.


"TAPE BECOMES BLANK PAUSE HERE.


R: water. 'he number the warmish number of days with the temperature


ninety or higher increases from about four or five immedi ately along


the Bay Shore with something like sixty c seventy by the time you


reach the Miami airport.


20










RED 9


D: And that Bay Shore at the Miami airport of Miami. That's


about Well, let's see thirty-six !Street Nw would be about what?


Four or five miles?


R: I'm inclined to ay five miles. I don't know what as far as that is


concerned.


D: In other words there's about five degrees for the five miles?


R: Well,

I wouldn't say..
D: I don't mean to put words in your mouth, but it's in degrees.


It's a degree per mile, but in that particular area?


R: No, there's not that much difference say in the average maximum


temperature, but at there's a highly critically point in the comfort


of people say in a warm, moist summer. Say in a range of about eighty


-seven or eighty-eight degrees and there is this much difference as


to ether it's below ninety or whether it's above ninety in this


comparatively short period. Now, there's another factor, but

whole but
this isn't of course, the reason for it. It's a portion of the


reason, that we evaporation of moisture from precipitation which


had fallen previously is quite a practise in the formation of


new shower s










RED 9


D: Huh, huh.


R: In other words, when precipitation had come down is re-evaporated


into the air why it is then dissolved again. Now, on an annual basis


the amount of precipitation increases at the rate of one inch per mile.


as you go inland from Miami Beach and until you get at least twenty miles


east inland and probably this rate continues to increase for some distance


further.


D: In other words, the first the more you get into the .Everglades the


more it rains in the summer.


R: Yes. That's right. And now if the Everglades were completely drained


in it would mean a reduction in precipitation, and of course, all over


the United States. Not only true in Florida but all over the Unites States.


That fresh water is one of our most important natural resources. And,


eventually, as our population becomes greater and greater it


going to become even more important factor in so that drainage or


complete drainage of the Everglades would reduce annual precipitation.


D: Yes, the rain lasts and so you could get a vicious cycle and the


Everglades got very dry then it would be less re-evaporation so it would


rain less so they would simply become dryer and drier.










RED 9


D: Now, I was going to talk just a minute I've been trying to think

me.
of some way easily to explain the factor and it seems to^Anywqy, the way


I think of it. I always think of South Florida itself as


an island.


R: Which it is,too.


R: that's right.


D: Ocheechobee, Eveigades, St. Lucie, so you have this island which is


surround on three sides by water the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic,


and then when you get down to this little ridge here, we are living


by ridge I mean


R: Yeah.


D: We are really surrounded by on four side by water by the time you count


Lake Ocheechobee, and the Everglades so from what you were saying

really
air conditioning is really,blowing air over water to cool it.


R: Yes. Yes.


D: So that's why we have in a sense the natural air conditioning climate.


down here which explains why are much warmer We are much warmer


here than our latitude indicates. If we were on the mainland we would


have greater extremes of temperatures.









RED 9


R: Yes, yes. Right.


D: If we were in the middle of land, although we are


spoken of as the subtropical, the Tropic going through Havana


approximately, although we are theoretically subtropical, practically


as far as the trees and bushes and things that are grown here, we are


semi-tropical, technically, We are more tropical that we ought to be


for our latitude.


R: Yes. From a chronological standpoint, we are subtropical. We're not


tropical because our winters are not tropical.


D: You mean we have tropical summers but not tropical winters?


R: Yeah. That's right so that's the reason that we end up with a subtropical,


climate.

D: Well, then,
D: The reason then that our winters are not tropical is because


we get these northern air masses?


R: Yeah. That's right. That's rights


And they can arise as they approach as they frequently do from the North


Northwest.


D: Hum, hum.


RP You can have rather an air trajectory all the way from you might say the

L









RED 9


R: without being significantly modified as somewhat say by passing over the


Great Lakes, but they can arise here without passing over any significant


amount of water. Hum.


D: So evidentally, it was not fixed.


R: Now, the difference between say Floridaand India which say Calcutta, for


example, which is probably a little bit southwest, I believe, about latitude


twenty or twent;'-one.


D: We're twenty-five.


R: But you can go to latitude twenty-five in India and have areas where there's


not frost, and the reason for that is that the tremendously high Himalaya


Mountains or the air masses from Siberia "Trigamoo" southward. They can't


come over this tremendously high mountain range so they are deflected

receives
eastward, and so that India never f the poor and strong air masses


that we receive.


D: In other words if we could build a mountain range around Tallahassee


R: Then, we would have the sqme climate as India.


D: Then, the answer to our question is going to be as I listen to your seven


thirty weather forecast every morning, winter and summer, I notice that


there is constantly a temperature variation between Miami and









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D: airport five miles inland.


R: Yeah.


D: Between Miami and Miami Beach, and Miami Beach is always appreciably


coooler in the summer than the Miami at the airport and


R: Now, let's put it this way: It's cooler in the daytime, but it's actually


a little warmer at night.


D: Yes, I can see where that might be because


R: ^nd that is the reason why the temperature for the day may average out


about the same because the warmer night time temperature compensates


for the lower daytime temperature.


D: Yes, but the extrene. In other words there must make extremes.


R: Yes, that's right. The normal daily range of temperature is much less


at Miami Beach than it is at the airport.


D: And that's because it really truly is an island.


R: Yes, it is. That's right. The bay on the other side and of course,


the ocean on the other, and then, another thing is that again this


thermal effect which I have mentioned on winds is stronger over here

in the
due to the cooling.night and heating in the daytime.than it is at


Miami Beach. so that we can have say in the winter time our winds










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R: all night long be northwest over here coming off the land while


this radiation is going on and Miami Beach will have northeast coming


off the Gulf Stream.


D: So it's always


Well, I was very interested to see to hear at a scientific meeting


that I as in. It had noth ing to d weather actually, but in November


we were in New Orleans at the meeting of the Gulf Carribean Fishermen


and there was a gentleman for from the I forgot Louisianna, I think,


and he got up and he was talkihg about the Gulf of Mexico and he said


that you have to remember that this is not the averages, but the


extremes that control the environment.


R: Yes. Yes.


D: Which I went to great length to in


R: Yes.

if
D: So not practically but theoretically^you have a plant that could tolerate

just n't
that was sensitive to certain that could withstand certain amounts of


extremes it might theoretically grow on Miami Beach where it could not


grow on the Bay Shore.


R: Yeah. Yeah.










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D: could not grow further inland in Miami. Is there any question that


the weather has changed? You said that the weather bureau was founded


here.


R: 1911.


D: 1911. Has there been any indications of differences, true differences


in climate here between here and 1911 as far as your statistics show?


R: Uh. Yes. The answer to that would be "no". Now, we run into trouble


in trying to see if there are cycles of one sort or another and we know


that they are quite weak in definite cycles and these cycles had


different periods and these cycles are superimposed upon one another


but due to the fact that our location has been moved on the


average of about once every five years, it is useless to make


comparisons and say take even at the airport the new construction


the addition of runways That is anything in the way that man


builds, cement runways:, asphalts roads, they absorb heat at a higher


rate and man is so constantly changing the environment that unless


you have a station that has been out say in a rural section and for


a long period of time hasn't been changed. The comparisons are


completely unrealistic.










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R: So that is why we can never can come and tell some one exactly the


degree of change that has been brought about say by and
drainage

so forth, and that

weather
D: That's eight because the bureau was down town and inthe


Bank Building.


R: I remember when we were downtown that the location was changed three


or four times, and then, somebody comes along and bids a thirteen


story building between you and the Bay Front. Why a


D: Then, you've go it.


R: The conditions are changing.


D: Yeah.


R: For example, when the 1926 hurricane came along which was the most

've
intese intense hurricane that we ever had our anemometer on this three


story building didn't even measure the record hurricane winds, aid yet


the winds probably reached 150 miles per hour.


D: I11, that 's quite a bit of variation though. You and a hurricane, I


mean, and in places.


R: Well, it all depends on your exposure. For example, they vary


a lot between here and the airport because the airport anemometer










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R: now the requirement is that it's an aviation requirement that it be


oh, six or eight feet off the ground. Well, we're up this much



higher so we required higher velocity, but even the velocities that


we record here are significantly less than you record on the ground


right on the beach.


D: During a hurricane.


R: Yeah, during a hurricane.

should
D: Well, I thought that we talk about hurricanes because everybody


is so interested in them, but before we do that, I want to you know,


a Last month, the Fish and Wildlife Preserves have been


beach and Bay and everything. He claimed that the sea has risen one


foot in the past seventy years. Sunday, wasn't it?


R: That's what you said.


D: Yeah, I mean, have you Is this news to you?


R: Well, I don't remember hearing that


D: But the climate generally Now, this has nothing to do with


specifically Florida but


R: Yes.


D; But the climate generally has changed enough, I presume it's the Polar










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D: Ice Caps or something that is melting.


R: Well, yes.


D: But it has raised the level of the sea one foot in the past seven years


because one foot as he points out at sea level mean a lot more than


inland and


R: Yeah.

D: More than
D: One foot.


R: Now, also, with that there is in most places a constant, of course, a

That is, it is not
very, very slow rise and fall of the land itself.

It might be that
constant now. there should be some contribution there, but


I would expect that the level of the Ocean would be rising some


because particularly in the thirties and the forties the temperatures


the world over were the warmest of any decade since we began


END OF SIDE ONE.









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R: The temperatures average the world over were the warmest of any


decade or decades since we began actually measuring the temperature


with thermometer. Now, welnow of course, well, there have been


four space ages "no ice ages" known ice ages on the order of 150


million years apart and then of course, it warms up in between and


you have this interglacial period and that the level of the ocean


rises and falls with each change in temperature. Well, there's this


warning that has been going on particularly with warmth in the thirties


and the forties and I my glaciers were measured as retreated significantly.


That was some glaciers completely disappeared, and so that there


has been considerable melting of the ice both at the South Pole and


let's put it in the Anartic aui the Artic. I don't know whether


the melting took place at the poles or near the edges. So it would


not be surprising if the level of the ocean had risen a foot


in years. Now, if all of the ice in the Polar Region melted I think


the level of the ocean would rise sixty-five or seventy feet.


D: No, I think half the world or all the coastal cities would disappear.


R: At least, practically all of pennisula Florida would be covered


by water, which has happened in previous interglacial periods.










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R: And presumably will happen again although I don't think you and I


will have to worry about that.
D: Nor do the hotel people on Miami Beach. ha!
D: Well, if the hurricane without, going into allthis business which

I think,
wHch during the day. The thing that interests laymen is


the fact that they are so irradic which there is a period here in


Miami that you had one hurricane a year every year for ten years.


back in the forties,wasn't it?


R: I don't believe so. No, I don't think that's right.


D: We had them in great frecuency once, wasn't it?


R: Yes, we have them with great frecuency.


D: And then, for a long time there weren't any.


R: But we had a twenty-year period. We had a hurricane in 1906 and then,


we didn't have another one until 1926.


D: Incidentally, that book of Commodore Monroe's goes into all this about


the big blow to Key West and the lower


R: One reason a lot of leaders keep from mentioning about hurricanes


during this period 1806 to 1900 when our records say in this area

metero-
you really don't know logically much different.

kind of
D: I always lood at that rule. So there was a twenty year lull so to speqk.









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D: Between 1920 and 1926. Then, we had one a big one and then


there was not a lull because between '26 there were a number of


hurricanes in the forties but they were all rather light, and then,


we had Donna and Becky. What years were they?


R: Donna was sixty and Betsy was two years ago- 1965. Yes, Betsy was


sixty-five.


D: The sixties. Although there were a number of hurricanes in the forties,


particular from 1960 there was a tremendous amount of development

building
as far as that was concerned. There were practically none.


R: I think the St4te of Florida is a We average .9 (point nine)


hurricanes per year. Almost one hurricane per year.


D: Uh, huh.


R: But it's going back to seventy-five or eighty years. Now during this


period 19- Well, let's take this period 1951 through 1963 that I


believe would be thirteen years.


D: That would twelve. No, inclusive


R: Inclusive would be thirteen years. Now, we should have expected, you


might say, twelve hurricanes over the states. We only had three. Now,


we expect a major hurricane in the states once every four years so that










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R: within this year we should then have, my, three We only had one.


So that adually going back as far as our records are good,and we

al
consider that about 1885,though we may have missed one or two in


South Florida between 1885 and 1890 or 1900. This period


1951- 1963 was the most hurricane period on record.


D: Well, do you think that this indicates just merely the peculiar

actually
differences between talking about aVerage and what happened ?


Or did they just run in cycles?

random Random
R: They just cycles, cycles. They're not regular cycles


they're random cycles.


D: So when you speak of them, you can expect on an average of one a year

does not mean that they are easily


R: Oh, no. .no. In fact, if you take anything of a meteorological nature,


while we talk of averages or normal, the weather is almost never normal.


Andthe averages mean nothing. That is you take .Miami, for example,


I can't give you this. This gives you say, at least, at the airport


a lot of averages and so forth. Say at the airport, I think, the average


fiftv
is six inches of rain per year, but we had had as little as twenty-


two, and not in a calendar year, but taking twelve consecutive months










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R: we have had over 100 inches, and probably not once in more than twenty-


five or thirty years you get a year that comes within a couple of


inches of the normal or the average rainfall.


D: Well, you mean they are sort of like people that there is no


average there, there is no average.


R: The average is that they are composed no: average or abnormal


D: Could you say that it's a really a little bit like gambling: In other


words if you have ever been at a card table and you watched It's


certainly true that over a period of seventy-two hours, your number,


your box cards might come up say within a certain frequency which can't


be mathematically calculated, but if it's a practical matter, it doesn't


come up that way. It comp' in streaks.


R: Yeah.


D: You have lucky streaks. You have winning streaks. You have winning


streaks. And does the weather work that way, tmo?

now
R: Yes, gain, this is nothing that a person should bet on, but nevertheless,


this tendency complex.


D: It pulls down everything else in S. Florida. why not that?


R: ha! ha! Probably, at least it's something over which no one has any control.









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R: Here as horse races and some of these other things you might say that


it is possible to have some control.

You know,
D: I think this is interesting. I think we could start an absolutely new


believers drama


the average rainfall for months.


R: Oh, there is a tendency here in Miami and even in South Florida, extreme


South Florida to have something on the order of three wet years and three


dry years every and so forth, a periodic


drought come along and There's quite a tendency y for them to last about

a
three years. There's somewhat less tendency to get three wet years


but you'll tend to have after three dry years, you'll have a period of

either
years at least two years ong that the rainfall is.now more close to


normal or above normal.


D: Well, extreme control environment. It's the


lack of extre mes here that has made this environment which in turn


makes the sunshine, which in turn makes the plants ,which in turn


pays the the hotels and the tourists and all this. Now, a hurricane


can come, but there's no like three years of hurricanes and three


non-years of hurricanes.










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D: You don't know. It's just a gamble.

D:
R: To anyone. And how about the years? For instance, it's


disastrous from the tourist point of view. Year in the winter of 1957,


'58? Are those equally random?


R: No. Yes. Yes. Now, of course, this year that you mention,


the coldest winter that Miami and extreme South Florida have ever


experienced although in this particular year we


did not have the lowest temperature. On several occ sions


we have had a lower temperature than we had obtained any time during


this period, but


D: A tremendous gap.


R: We had to have a day there for a long period that the temperature


never got up to normal. It was just cold day after day after day.


D: I know, but this was the first year that we came to Florida we lived

when
in a boat with a on it and on the first day^ I got up,


I went up to do something on deck and I tripped on the ice.


I slid on the deck on the ice and fell down. And there were periods of


weeks when it just blew and cold. They had the storm warnings up when


got so we called the Florida blast. Well, what did that?










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D: I mean.


R: We can say what did it, and we come down finally to a point where


what caused that the feature of the general circulation and we have to


say that we don't know what caused it. Now, during this particular


year, we actually don't know whether the Gulf Stream causes certain


things or the Jet Stream is a result of other things.


D: There's a lot of talk about this jet stream. as far as I remember.


R: The most abnormal weather the greatest temperature normally and the


stormiest weather occurred under the jet stream because the jet stream


is found where you have the greatest concentration of temperature


gradient. Where the greatest temperature gradient occurred.


D: Oh, I see.


R: And, of course, it's right under that the weather is most active.


Now, during that year, or during that winter the jet stream which is


normally in winter is found along the Tennessee-Georgia border. That is,


in the longitude of Florida naturally south of Cuba.


D: Hum.


R: Normally, that far south. Well, we had, of course, as far as the


of the atmosphere, an abnormal what recall










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R: Meridianal Flow. Meridianal Flow is north south. Normal flow is

warm
east west. In the^winter you have mostly zonal flow. Well, you have


Meridianal Flow.


D: Now, this apple to the jet stream?


R: Yeah, to the jet stream. It means that you have this sort of thing


whereas zonal flow is a straight west-east. Here you have this. This


means that in certain areas you're having strong flow from the north


Over here, you are having correspondingly strong flow from the south.


D: Right.


R: So that under this northerly flow, you, of course, which is bringing


air masses down from the Artic you will have a negative temperature


normally, which is what we have in this particular year, but then you


come and ask me why did we have that


D:


R: We don't know, but these departures from the normal circulation


a We are unable to recast. We don't know the reason. We suspect


that at least the sun has some effect on it, but we don't know just how


this is brought about, and, of course, we say the sun probably

and that sort of thing.
referring more to sun spot activity. Well, also, there are some










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R: Aside from the fact that you have these glacial efforts and these


interglacial periods, but the most important cycle is a forty to


forty-five year temperature cycle, known as the Bucknal cycle.


And that


D:


R: And of course, half ofthis you have above normal temperatures


and half of it will be below normal temperatures. In other words,

split
they would be up twenty to twenty-two or t went three year 3
and then,

it would be above normal, below normal, and so forth.


D: Well, does this correlate with some cycles?

as alWays. that
R: Yes, it correlates with those, Now, say^in the thirties and forties

well perhaps the warmest occasionally
we know that we had.unusually warm decadesthat we have been able to


measure in modern times.


D: Was this true parenthetically? Was this true only for Florida or


was it


R: Oh, the world over, the world over. Of course, that doesn't mean


that during this period some winter or some year


D: No,NO. I mean


R: But on the average, now this warm trend was reversed around 1950.

1. -











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D: Uh, hum. that
R: And if saywe



SIDE TWO ENDS UN: EXPECTEDLY HERE.





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