An empirical evaluation of the determinants of tourists hurricane evacuation decision making

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An empirical evaluation of the determinants of tourists hurricane evacuation decision making
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Journal of Destination Marketing & Management
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Touristsarevulnerableintheeventofacrisis.Thisarticleisfocusedonexaminingaspectsoftouriststhat potentiallyinfluence whetherornottheyevacuateintheeventofahurricane.Ingeneraltheresultsof this studysuggestthatindividualcharacteristics(riskbelief,connectedness,knowledge,andpast experiencewithhurricanes),travelrelatedvariablesandthesocio-demographiccharacteristicsof tourists influence theirdecisionregardingwhetherornottoevacuateintheeventofahurricane,with tourists whoarenotlocalshowinghigherriskbeliefsregardinghurricanes,withlowconnectednessand knowledgeabouthurricanes,withoutpastexperiencewithhurricaneimpacts,travelingwithalarger party,travelingwithchildren,travelingforthe first timetothedestination,travelingbyplaneand personal vehicle,olderagegroups,female,withanannualincomemorethan$125,000aremorelikelyto evacuate.Managerialimplicationsofthe findings arediscussed.
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ResearchPaperAnempiricalevaluationofthedeterminantsoftourist'shurricane evacuationdecisionmakingIgnatiusCahyantoa ,n,LoriPennington-Grayb 1,BrijeshThapab 1,SivaSrinivasanc 2, JorgeVillegasd 3,CoreneMatyase 4,SpiroKiousisf 5aTourism&HospitalityManagement,SchoolofBusiness,BlackHillsStateUniversity,MeierHall335,1200UniversityStreetUnit9007, Spear sh,SD57799-9007,UnitedStatesbDepartmentofTourism,RecreationandSportManagement,UniversityofFlorida,325FLG,POBox118209,Gainesville,FL32611,UnitedStatescDepartmentofCivilandCoastalEngineering,UniversityofFlorida,513-aWeilHall,Gainesville,FL32611,UnitedStatesdCollegeofBusinessandManagement,UniversityofIllinoisatSpring eld,OneUniversityPlaza,MSUHB4054,Spring eld,IL62703-5407,UnitedStateseDepartmentofGeography,UniversityofFlorida,3141TurlingtonHall,Gainesville,FL32611-7315,UnitedStatesfDepartmentofPublicRelations,UniversityofFlorida,POBox118400,Gainesville,FL32611-8400,UnitedStatesarticleinfoArticlehistory: Received13February2013 Accepted22October2013 Availableonline27November2013 Keywords: Tourists Evacuation Decision-making Crisis Florida ProbitmodelingabstractTouristsarevulnerableintheeventofacrisis.Thisarticleisfocusedonexaminingaspectsoftouriststhat potentiallyin uencewhetherornottheyevacuateintheeventofahurricane.Ingeneraltheresultsof thisstudysuggestthatindividualcharacteristics(riskbelief,connectedness,knowledge,andpast experiencewithhurricanes),travelrelatedvariablesandthesocio-demographiccharacteristicsof touristsin uencetheirdecisionregardingwhetherornottoevacuateintheeventofahurricane,with touristswhoarenotlocalshowinghigherriskbeliefsregardinghurricanes,withlowconnectednessand knowledgeabouthurricanes,withoutpastexperiencewithhurricaneimpacts,travelingwithalarger party,travelingwithchildren,travelingforthe rsttimetothedestination,travelingbyplaneand personalvehicle,olderagegroups,female,withanannualincomemorethan$125,000aremorelikelyto evacuate.Managerialimplicationsofthe ndingsarediscussed. & 2013ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.1.Backgroundofthestudy Overthelastdecade,thetourismindustryworldwidehas experiencedamplecrisesrangingfromnaturallyinducedcrises suchaswild res,tornadoes,earthquakes,tsunamis,andhuman inducedcrisessuchaspoliticalunrestandterroristattacks.The aforesaidcriseshavecontributedtoadeclineintourists'visitation andhavehadanegativeimpactontheeconomyofthetourism industryinmultipleplaces( Pennington-Gray,London,Cahyanto,& Klages,2011 ; Schaper,2012 ).AVISITFLORIDAssurveyfoundthat 20%ofpotentialvisitorswereconcernedwithreturningtoFlorida during2005shurricaneseason,indicatingthatifallthosepeople stayedaway,itwouldresultina$6.7billionlossinexpenditures ( Pain,2006 ). KeyWest,Floridalostapproximately$1.5millionadayfrom commerceandtourismwhenanevacuationorderwasissued duringthe2008hurricaneseason( MiamiHerald,2009 ). Faulkner(2001) and Ritchie(2004) arguedthatthereisa scarcityofresearchonthecrisisphenomenoninthetourism industry,albeitwithinthelast veyearstherehavebeena substantialnumberofresearcharticlespublishedoncrisesaffecting thetourismindustry.Publicationsontourismcrisismanagement canbeseenfromtwoangles.The rstanglefocusesonthesupply sideoftourism,whilethesecondanglefocusesonthedemandside oftourism.Recentpublications,however,focusprimarilyonthe supplysideofthetourismsystemandcanbefurthercategorized intotwomajorthemes.The rstthemefocusesontheimpactsofa crisisonthetourismindustryandstudiesonhowthetourism industry,suchasdestinationmanagementorganizations,responds tocrises(e.g. Carlsen,2006 ; Chacko&Marcell,2007 ; Chandler, 2004 ; Cheung&Law,2006 ; Cooper,2005 ).Thesecondtheme examineshowtouristsmightrespondeffectivelytocrises.Speci cally,researchinthisareaconcentratesoncrisismanagement modelsandattemptstoofferthemosteffectivemodeltosavelives andmitigateriskstotourismbusinessesthatcanbeimplemented bydestinationmanagementorganizations(e.g. Evans&Elphick, 2005 ; Faulkner,2001 ; Hystad&Keller,2006 ; Ritchie,2004 ). Contentslistsavailableat ScienceDirect journalhomepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jdmmJournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2212-571X/$-seefrontmatter & 2013ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2013.10.003 nCorrespondingauthor.Tel.: 16056426876. E-mailaddresses: ignatius.cahyanto@bhsu.edu igcahyanto@gmail.com(I.Cahyanto) .1Tel.: 13522941657.2Tel.: 13523929537.3Tel.: 12172067927.4Tel.: 13523920494;fax: 13523928855.5Tel.: 13522731220;fax: 13522731227. JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265

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Ritchie(2009) arguedthatresearchfromthedemandside,such ashowtouristsrespondtocrisesisstilllackingandsuggestedthat futureresearchersexaminetouristbehaviorduringcrises.This focusonbehaviorispivotaltounderstandingtouristbehaviorin theeventofacrisisinordertoeffectivelydesignwaystodevelop assistancetoensurethesafetyoftouristsintheeventofacrisis. Furthermore, PhillipsandMorrow(2007) contendthattouristsare vulnerableintheeventofacrisis,withoneofthemainreasons beingthattouristsmaynotspeakand/orreadthehostlanguage andmaylackknowledgeoftherisksthathurricanespresent. Hence,touristsmayexperiencedif cultyinreceiving,interpreting, andrespondingproperlytoriskmessages.Touristsareoften unfamiliarwiththeirsurroundingsandlacksupportsystemsfrom theirhomecommunity( Burby&Wagner,1996 ; Faulkner,2001 ; WorldTourismOrganization(WTO),1998 ).Whileinunfamiliar environments,touristsmaynotknowwhotheir “ protectors ” are astheydonotknowfromwhomtoseekassistance.Thus,the impactstotouristsinriskysituationsmaybegreaterthantothose inthegeneralresidentpopulation.Duetotheneedtobetter understandtourists'behaviorsintheeventofacrisis,thisstudy, unlikepreviousstudiesintheareaoftourismcrisis,willfocuson tourists'behaviorsintheeventofcrisis,speci callyontheir behaviorsintheeventofhurricanes. Hurricanesareoneofthemostdisruptivenaturaldisastersto destinations,notonlybecauseofthecostsassociatedwiththe impacts,butalsoduetothetimefullrecoverytakesfollowinga hurricanestrike.Accordingtothe NationalHurricaneCenter(NHC) (2006) ,the2005Atlantichurricaneseasonwasconsideredthe mostactiveandharmfulseasoninrecordedhistoryintheUnited States,causingapproximately2300deathsandover$130billionin damages.Furthermore,theeconomiclossesassociatedwithhurricanesfrom shing,agriculture,commerce,andtourismarelong lasting,usuallytakingseveralyearsfromwhichtorecover( Lindell &Perry,2004 ). Anextensivebodyofresearchhasidenti edmanyfactorsthat in uencehouseholds'responsestohurricanes(e.g. Drabek,1986 Lindell&Perry,2004 ; Riad&Norris,1998 ).Theresearchhas examinedgender( Bateman&Edwards,2002 ; Dash&Gladwin, 2007 ; Gladwin&Peacock,1997 ),wealth( Burton,Kates,&White, 1993 ; Viscusi,1995 ; Whitehead,2003 2005 ),pastexperiences relatedtohurricanes( Burton&Kates,1964 ; Peacock,Brody,& High eld,2005 ; Vitek&Berta,1982 ),hurricaneknowledge ( Daniels&Loggins,2007 ; Dow&Cutter,1998 )andraceand ethnicity(Gabe,Falk,&McCarty,2005 ; Niga,Barnshaw,&Torres, 2006 ). Unfortunately,littleattentionhasbeenfocusedontransient populationssuchastourists( Phillips&Morrow,2007 ).Consequently,whilegeneral ndingsinhurricanestudieshavefacilitatedemergencymanagersandpolicymakerstodevelopplans thatmakerealisticassumptionsaboutthegeneralnatureof humanbehaviorsrelatedtohurricanes,suchstudiesmaynotbe suf cienttoprovidetheinformationthatemergencymanagement,policymakers,andthedestinationmanagementorganizationsneedforspeci cpredictionsaboutthebehavioroftouristsin theircommunities. Thefewnoteworthycontributionswhichexaminetourist behaviorduringhurricaneswerepublishedintheearlyandmid 1990sandlargelybyoneauthor( Drabek,1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1999 2000 )withafocusonevacuationstrategiesand policiesfromasupplyviewpoint.Arecentstudyconductedby Matyasetal.(2011) Pennington-Gray,Kaplanidou,andSchroeder (2012) and Villegasetal.(2012) weretheonlystudiesfocusedon thetouristpopulation.Thesestudiesexaminedtheinterplay betweentourists'perceivedrisksandtheirlikelihoodtoevacuate, andfoundthatthosewhoperceivedhigherriskaremorelikelyto evacuateintheeventofhurricanewarning.Thisstudyexpandson Matyasetal.(2011) byemployingdecisiontheorytoexamine determinantsthatin uencetourists'evacuationdecisionmaking intheeventofhurricanes. Giventhepaucityofacademicresearchontourists'evacuation behaviorandtheurgencytoconductsuchstudies,thispaperis focusedonexaminingaspectsoftouriststhatpotentiallyin uence whetherornottouristsevacuateduringahurricane.Speci cally, thisstudyisguidedbythreeinterrelatedquestions: (1)Whataretheeffectsofatourist'sindividualcharacteristicson decisionsregardingwhetherornottoevacuate? (2)Whataretheeffectsoftravelrelatedvariablesonatourist's decisionsregardingwhetherornottoevacuate? (3)Whataretheeffectsofsocio-demographyondecisionsregardingwhetherornottoevacuate? 2.Literaturereview Inthissectionwediscusstheguidingtheoryforthisstudyas wellasthreeareasthatarepresumedtoin uencetourists' evacuationdecisionmaking:Individualcharacteristics,travel relatedvariables,andsocio-demography. 2.1.Decisiontheoryunderuncertainty Asthisstudyintendstoexaminethedecisionmakingof touristswithregardtotheirevacuationchoices,thestudyemploys decision-makingtheoryasatheoreticallens.Thedecisiontheory typicallycanbedividedintotwomajorparts:Adescriptionofthe agenttowhichthetheoryappliesandnormativeclaimsabout howtheagentshouldbehave. Underthetypicaldecisiontheory,theagentinwhichthe theoryappliessatis esthefollowingconditions:First,theagent's beliefstateatthetimecanberepresentedbyaprobability functionoveraspaceofpossibilitiesthatindicatestheagent's con dencethatthepossibilityistrue,withgreatervaluesindicatinggreatercon dence.Second,theagent'sevaluativestateatthe timethatcanberepresentedbyafunctionwhichassignspositive numberstoelementsinthespaceofpossibilities,referredtoasautility.Utilitiesindicatetheextenttowhichtheagentvaluesthat possibilityofobtainingtheact.Highernumbersindicatehigher utilities.Third,theagent'spotentialactsinadecisionsituation thatcanberepresentedbyauniquesetofmutuallyexclusive propositions{a1, … an}where “ a ” canbeconsideredasthe propositionthattheagentperformsthe i thavailableact.Typical decisiontheoryalsopositsthattheagentwouldonlyperforma potentialact a iftheutilitiesofthisactareatleastaslargeasthe expectedutilitiesofanyalternatives.Thisassertionisalsoknown asutilitymaximization( Jones,Boushey,&Workman,2006 ; Meacham,2010 ). Withindecisiontheory,therearetwocompetingschoolsof thoughtregardingindividualchoice.The rstistherationalchoice thatassumesthatindividualsbehaveasiftheywereactingaspure utilitymaximizerstodeducepatternsofoutputsfromsocial systems( Friedman,1953 ).Thesecondisboundedrationalitythat acknowledgespsychologicalrestrictionsonhumandecision-making,premisedontheassumptionthatindividualswouldmaximize theutilityofalternativesthatareavailableforthematthattime. Decisiontheoryhasbeenwidelyusedinordertoexaminevarious eldsfromtransportationbehaviors( Kitazawa&Batty,2004 ), insurancepurchasers( Kunreuther&Pauly,2004 )aswellas evacuationdecisionmakers( Burtonetal.,1993 ; Letson,Sutter,& Lazo,2007 ; Viscusi,1995 ). Intourismliterature,decisiontheoryhaslongbeenusedto examinetraveldecision-making,purchasebehaviors,aswellasI.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 254

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factorsthatin uencedecisions( Moutinho,1987 ; Sirakaya& Woodside,2005 ; Woodside&MacDonald,1994 ). Woodsideand MacDonald(1994) applieddecisiontheorytounderstanddestinationchoices.Intheirstudytheyfoundthatoftentouristchoicesof destinationarenotalwaysrational.Thechoicesareattributedtothe interactionofindividualpreferencesandthein uencesoftravel partymembers. SirakayaandWoodside(2005) provideacomprehensivedevelopmentoftheoriesofdecisionmakingbytourists. Whiletheyarguethatdecisiontheoryhasbeenfrequentlyusedto understandtravelbehavior,thereisstillaneedtoadvancecurrent understandingoftouristdecision-makingbyapplyingthetheoryto otherfacetsoftravelexperiences. Decisiontheoryunderboundedrationalityexpandsourunderstandingoftourist'sdecisionmaking.Duringacrisissituationthat ischaracterizedbyuncertainty,highthreats,andashortdecision time,individualsoftendonothavetheluxuryoftimeand informationtoassistthemindecisionmaking.Thus,these individualsaremorelikelytomakeadecisionbasedonlimited optionsavailable. Burtonetal.(1993) and Vescusi(1995) argued thatindividualsmakechoicesundertheuncertaintyofthethreat bymaximizingtheirexpectedutilities.Todosotheseindividuals mightbewillingtoforgotheirwealthincludingtheirincome, capital,andpropertyinordertominimizethosethreats. Burton etal.(1993) elaboratesfurtherbycontendingthatunderthethreat ofenvironmentalhazards,anindividualhazardresponseisin uencedbyfourmajorelements:Priorexperiencewiththespeci c hazard,anindividual'swealth,theirintrinsiccharacteristics,and theirinteractionwithsociety. Todate,thereisnoempiricalevidencethatthesamedecision makingprocessesapplytotouristsdifferentlythantoresidents. Thisisduetotouristslackoftiestothedestinationandthatthey aretransientpopulationscomparedtoresidentswhohaveresided inthedestinationandhavegreaterknowledgeofthedestination. Thisstudyspeci callyfocusesonthevariablesthatareassumedto in uencetourists'evacuationchoicesasidenti edintheevacuationliteraturewhichisfocusedonresidents. 2.2.Individualcharacteristicsandevacuation Wede nedindividualcharacteristicsasmultipleinternal variablesbeyondtypicalsocio-demographicvariables.Speci cally, wefocusedonfourvariables:Individualriskbeliefwithhurricanes,levelofindividualconnectednesstohurricanes,hurricane knowledge,andpasthurricaneexperience. Riskbeliefsigni espersonalbeliefsregardingcontrollability, optimismbias,aswellasriskpropensity/aversion( Rohrmann, 1995 1999 2000 ).Risk-speci cbeliefpertainstotheextentofan individual'slevelofcon dencetoovercomeuncertainty( Aldoory, Kim,&Tindall,2010 ; Grunig,1989 ; Major,1993 1998 ; Lee&Rodriquez,2008 ; Quintal,Lee,&Soutar,2010 ; Slater,Chipman, Auld,Keefe,&Kendall,1992 ; Sriramesh,Moghan,&Wei,2007 ). Whenindividualsholdhigherperceptionsofcontrollability,they arelesslikelytoperceivethattheyareatrisk( Burby&Wagner, 1996 ).Similarly,individualswithlowerperceptionsofthecontrollabilityofaneventaremuchmorelikelytoperceivethatthey areatrisk.Consequently,thosewhoarelesscon dentwiththeir abilitytoovercomerisksassociatedwithhurricanesaremore likelytoperceivehigherrisksleadingtotheirevacuationdecision ( Sorensen&Sorensen,2007 ; Whitehead,2003 ). Individualriskbeliefshavebeenfoundtobepredictorsof futuretravelbehaviors( Sonmez&Graefe,1998a 1998b )andalso in uencetheevaluationofdestinationalternativesandinformationacquisition( Roehl&Fesenmaier,1992 ).Researchsuggeststhat speci clocationsaremoreriskythanotherdestinationsinterms ofperceptionsofriskbytourists( Sonmez&Graefe,1998a ).For example,destinationswhichhaveexperiencedpreviousnatural disasters(i.e.,MiamiorKeyWest)maybeperceivedasriskierthan destinationswhichhavenotbeenhitbypastnaturaldisasters ( Sonmez&Graefe,1998b ).Inaddition, FloydandPennington-Gray (2004) foundthattouristsperceivednationalparks,naturalareas andmuseumstobelessriskylocationsthanthemeparks.Coastal versusnon-coastalareasmayhavevaryinglevelsofperceivedrisk, particularlyastheyrelatetohurricanes,therefore,inthisstudy riskbeliefispredictedtopositivelyin uenceevacuation. H1. Touristswithhigherriskbeliefregardinghurricanesaremore likelytoevacuatethanthosewithlowerriskbelief. Thelevelofindividualconnectednessreferstohowpersonally connectedanindividualfeelstoanissue( Aldooryetal.,2010 ; Grunig,1989 ; Petty&Cacioppo,1986 ; Slateretal.,1992 ; Sriramesh etal.,2007 ).Typically,thelevelofindividualconnectednesscanbe determinedbyexaminingthreeattributes:Interest,importance, andcuriositythatindividualshaveconcerningaspeci cissue ( Greenwald&Leavitt,1984 ; Hallahan,2000 ; Zaichkowsky,1985 ). Paststudiesonindividualconnectednesstohurricanesandevacuationpredictionshavebeeninconclusive.However,several researchersarguethatpersonalconnectednesstohurricanescan elevateperceptionsofrisk,leadingtohigherevacuationrates ( Burton&Kates,1964 ; Vitek&Berta,1982 ). Peacocketal.(2005) arguedthatthisoccursbecausethosewhoarepersonallyconnectedtohurricaneswillbemorereceptivetowarningmessages, comparedtothosewhoarenotpersonallyconnectedtohurricanes.However,otherresearcherssuchas LindellandPerry(2000) foundthatthosewithpersonalconnectednesstohurricanesare resistanttowarningmessagesastheyaremorelikelytoperceivethattheyareincontrolofthesituation,leadingtoalower evacuationrate. H2. Touristswithlowindividualconnectednesstohurricanesare morelikelytoevacuatethanthosewithhigherindividualconnectednesstohurricanes. Currentknowledgehasbeenfoundtoin uencethetravel relateddecisionmakingoftourists( Gursoy&McCleary,2004 ; Ratchford,2001 ; Vogt&Fesenmaier,1998 ),whocangain priorknowledgefromtheirexperienceswiththedestinationfrom theexperiencesofothers,themassmedia,andtheInternet. Hoogenraad,Eden,andKing(2004) assertthatindependent touristsaremorevulnerabletonaturalhazardsastheytravel separatefromrecognizedgroupsandthattheyoftentakemore risks,while MurphyandBayley(1989) arguethatduetothe natureofpleasuretravel,touriststendtodismissrisksanddisplay alowlevelofnaturaldisasterawareness.Researchconductedby Johnstonetal.(2002in Johnstonetal.,2007 )foundthat46% ofU.Svisitorswereunawareoftsunamiwarningsystemscomparedto28%oflocalsandonly19%ofvisitorshadseentsunami hazardmaps. Similarly,astudyofbackpackersinNorthQueenslandAustralia foundthatthisgrouphadalowawarenessofcyclones,withonly 30%receivinginformationconcerningcyclonesduringtheirtrip, thusleadingtoanincreaseintheirvulnerability( Hoogenraad etal.,2004 ).Thesestudiessuggestthatcurrenthurricaneknowledgemayin uencetourists'decisionsregardingevacuation.Those wholackknowledgeofhurricanesaremorelikelytoexperiencea higherriskperceptionprecedingtheirevacuationchoice.Conversely,thosewhopossessasuf cientlevelofhurricaneknowledge tendtobebetterabletodecideinanappropriatemanner( Grif n, Dunwoody,&Neuwirth,1999 ).Therefore,itispredictedthatthe levelofhurricaneknowledgehasanegativecorrelationwith choosingtovoluntarilyevacuateduringhurricanes. H3. Touristswithlowhurricaneknowledgearemorelikelyto evacuatethanthosewithhigherhurricaneknowledge.I.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 255

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Intheareaofhazards,paststudieshaveusedpastexperienceasa predictorofseveraldependentvariablesrangingfromindividual perceptionsofrisk( Grif n,Dunwoody,&Zabala,1998 ),information seekingregardingthehazard( Johnson&Meischke,1993 ; Lenz, 1984 ),andevacuationchoices( Baker,1991 ; Lindell,Lu,&Prater, 2005 ; Phillips&Morrow,2007 ; Whitehead,2003 ). Whitehead (2003) contendsthatthemaingoalofhurricaneevacuationsisto alleviatetheriskofinjuryordeathandthatpeoplewhoarein ood proneareashavedemonstratedahigherlikelihoodofevacuation thanthosewhoarenotinatriskareas. PhillipsandMorrow(2007) foundthathavingpastexperiencewi thhurricanesaffectresidents' decisionsastowhetherornottheyevacuate.Thus,residentsof hurricane-proneregionswhoh aveexperiencedtheimpactsof hurricanestendtohaveagreaterfamiliarityandthusbetter comprehensionofhurricane-relatedterminologythantouristswho havenothadpriorhurricaneexperience.Itisalsoimportanttonote thatanotherstudyby Lindelletal.(2005) foundthatpastexperience withhurricanesdonotsigni cantlyin uenceevacuationchoices. Whileseveralstudiesregardingresidents'evacuationbehaviorhave addressedtherelationshipbetweenpastexperiencetocurrent evacuationbehavior,littleanalysishasbeendonewithinthecontext oftourism.Onestudyby Matyasetal.(2011) ontourists'evacuation behaviorfoundasigni cantrelationshipbetweentourists'past experiencewithhurricanesandt heirlikelihoodtoevacuateinthe eventofhurricanewarningswiththosewhoexperiencedhurricane impactsinthepastdemonstratingamuchlowerpropensityto evacuatethanthosewhohaveneve rexperiencedahurricaneinthe past.Theydidnot,however,speci callyaskrespondentsaboutthe severityofhurricanesthattheyhadexperiencedinthepastand whetherornottheywereaskedtoevacuateinthepast.Nonetheless, the Matyasetal.(2011) studyhashelpedshedlightontheneedto examinetherelationshipbetween pastexperiencesandevacuation behaviors.Inthisstudyitispred ictedthattouristswithpast experiencewithhurricaneshaveapositiveassociationwiththe decisiontovoluntarilyevacuate. H4. Touristswithpastexperiencewithhurricaneimpactsareless likelytoevacuatethanthosewithoutsuchexperience. 2.3.Travelrelatedvariables Thisstudyfocusesonthesizeofthetravelparty,thenumberof visitstothedestination,thecompositionofthetravelparty,and modeoftransportation.Thetourismliteraturehasfoundthatthe travelpartysizein uencestravelrelateddecisionssuchaswhere toeat,wheretostay,andwhattodo( Decrop&Snelders,2005 ).In thecontextofevacuation,familialsizeandhavingaunitedfamily arerelevantfactors,withalargerfamilysizehavingbeenfoundto positivelycorrelatewithahigherpropensitytoevacuate ( Sorensen,2000 )withonepossiblereasonbeingthedesireto protecttheentirefamily.Thereforeitispredictedthatthesizeof thetravelpartyispositivelyassociatedwithtourists'decisionsto choosetovoluntarilyevacuateinordertosafeguardallmembers ofthetravelparty. H5. Largertravelpartiesaremorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewithsmallertravelparties. Intheresidentevacuationliterature,thelengthofresidence hasalsobeenfoundtoin uenceevacuationdecisions,withlonger lengthsofstaybeingcorrelatedwithalowerlikelihoodof evacuationintheeventofapotentialhurricanestrike( Gladwin &Peacock,1997 ).Likewise,thetourismliteraturehasalsofound thatthosewhohavenevervisitedthedestinationbeforeexhibit higherperceptionsofriskthanthosewhohavebeeninthe destinationbefore( Sonmez&Graefe,1998b ).Onepossiblereason isthatthosewhohavepreviouslybeeninthedestinationhave morefamiliaritywithregardtothedestinationandmayalsohave developedsupportsystemsthere.Thus, rsttimetouristsare morevulnerableintheeventofacrisisastheylacktherequisite hurricanerelatedknowledge.Thislackoffamiliaritymaycause higherperceptionsofrisksassociatedwithhurricanesandleadto anefforttoalleviatetheuncertaintybyevacuating.Therefore,in thisstudyitispredictedthatthosewhohaveneverbeeninthe destinationaremorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewhohavebeen inthedestinationbefore. H6. Firsttimetouristsaremorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewho arenot. Tourismresearchhasdocumentedtherolesoftravelparty compositionintravelrelateddecisionmaking( Decrop&Snelders, 2005 ; Egelhoff&Sen,1992 ; Fesenmaier&Jeng,2000 ; Hyde,2004 ). Theroleofchildreninhouseholdmaysigni cantlyaffectdecisionmakingwithregardtotravelrelateddecisions( Nickerson& Jurowski,2001 ).Similarly,thepresenceofchildrenandtheelderly havebeenfoundtosigni cantlyin uenceevacuationchoices. DashandGladwin(2007) and Solis,Thomas,andLetson(2010) foundthathouseholdswithchildrendisplayahigherpropensity forevacuation.Oneofthereasonsisthatthesocialexpectationto protectchildrenfromanypossibledangerincreasesthelikelihood ofevacuation.However,itisalsoimportanttonotethatthestudy by Matyasetal.(2011) foundthatalthoughthepresenceof childrenincreasedperceptionsofrisk,itdidnotleadtoahigher likelihoodofevacuationbytourists.However,theyarguedthat this ndingmightbecausedbytheunfamiliarityofthedestinationandnotknowingwheretogowhenanevacuationorderis issued.Thus,theycalledforfurtherexaminationontheeffectof childrenonevacuationdecisions.Severalstudiessuchas Solis etal.(2010) and DashandGladwin(2007) alsofoundthat householdswithelderlypersonsshowedalowerprobabilityto evacuate.Theyarguedthathealthissuesthatmightlimitmobility oroverrelianceonpersonalexperienceorknowledgemight discouragetheelderlytoevacuate.Forthosewhotravelwith elderly,othertravelmembersmayneedtoaccommodateelders needsthatmightdecreasethelikelihoodofevacuation.Basedon priorstudies,thisstudypredictsthatthepresenceofchildrenin thetravelpartywillincreasethelikelihoodofevacuation,while thepresenceofelderlywilldecreasethelikelihoodofevacuation. H7. Thosewhotravelwithchildrenaremorelikelytoevacuate thanthosewithoutchildren. H8. Thosewhotravelwithelderlyarelesslikelytoevacuatethan thosewithout. Accesstotransportationhasconsistentlybeendeterminedto beafactorthatin uenceshurricaneevacuationdecisionmaking amongresidents,withthosewhohaveaccesstotransportation beingmorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewithoutaccess( Solis etal.,2010 ).Withregardtotouristshowever, Matyasetal.(2011) foundthattouristswho ytothedestinationandthosewhorent vehiclesinthedestinationexhibitlowerratesofevacuationthan thosewhodonot yorrentavehicleinthedestination.Inthis study,thosewho ytothedestinationandthosewithpersonal vehiclesarepredictedtohaveapositiveassociationwithevacuationlikelihood,whilethosewithrentalvehiclesarepredictedto haveanegativeassociation. H9. Touristswho ytothedestinationarelesslikelytoevacuate thanthosewhodonot y. H10. Touristswhorentavehicleinthedestinationarelesslikely toevacuatethanthosewhodonot.I.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 256

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H11. Touristswhotakepersonalvehiclestothedestinationare morelikelytoevacuatethanthosewhodonot. 2.4.Socio-demographyandevacuation Paststudiesonhurricaneevacuationhaveconsistentlyutilized demographicsasafactorinpredictingevacuationchoicesranging fromethnicity,age,gender,education,andwealth,withcon icting results( Baker,1991 ; Dow&Cutter,1998 ; Lindelletal.,2005 ; Solis etal.,2010 ; Whiteheadetal.,2000 ). DowandCutter(1998) found nodifferencesinfactorssuchasage,race,andgenderbetween evacueesandnon-evacuees,whileotherresearchers( Bateman& Edwards,2002 ; Dash&Gladwin,2007 ; Gladwin&Peacock,1997 ) foundtheaforesaidfactorstobesigni cantinin uencingevacuationdecisions. Withregardtothein uenceoftourists'socio-demographic variablestotheirevacuationchoices, Matyasetal.(2011) found thatinternationaltouristsincoastaldestinationsaremorelikelyto evacuatethandomestictourists.Oneplausibleexplanationwas thatinternationaltouriststendtobelessfamiliarwiththe destinationcomparedtodomestictouristsandcoastaldestinationsareconsideredriskydestinationwithregardtohurricanes. Furthermore,thestudyalsofoundasigni cantrelationship betweenatourist'sageandthelikelihoodofevacuationwith youngertouristsbeingmorelikelytoevacuatethantouristsaged 50orhigher,althoughthesetouristsdemonstratedthehighest perceptionofrisks,whichisconsistentwithpreviousstudies ( Baker,1979 ; Drabek,1986 ; Eisenman,Cordasco,Asch,Golden,& Glik,1997 ). Thesamestudyalsofoundthatfemaletouristshavearelatively higherriskpropensityandaremorelikelytoevacuatethanmales intheeventofahurricanewarning.Inaddition, Matyasetal. (2011) alsofoundthattouriststravelingintheirownvehicle indicateahigherevacuationlikelihoodandperceptionofrisk thanthosewhodidnottravelintheirownvehicle.These ndings areparallelwithpreviousstudiesregardingresidents'evacuation decisions( Dow&Cutter,2002 ; Lindelletal.,2005 ).Nonetheless, as Matyasetal.(2011) werefocusedonseekingrelationships betweentourists'socio-demographiccharacteristicsandtheir evacuationchoices,furtherstudyneedstobeconductedto examinethecausalityoftourists'socio-demographicvariables withrespecttotheirevacuationchoicesasrelationshipdoesnot assumecausality( Agresti&Finley,2009 ). Theeffectofraceontheevacuationdecisionsofresidentshave beenexaminedbyseveralresearchers(e.g. Bateman&Edwards, 2002 ; Solisetal.,2010 ).ThestudiesconsistentlyfoundthatAfrican AmericansarelesslikelytoevacuatethanCaucasians.Onereason isthatAfricanAmericansoftendemonstratealackoftrusttoward governmentsthatmightdiscouragethemfromevacuating( Solis etal.,2010 ).Likewise,asevacuationmighttriggerunexpectedexpensessuchasrebooking ights,transportations,andmeals, havingdiscretionaryincomethatcanbeaccessedduringevacuationmightincreasethelikelihoodofevacuation.Additionally,we positthatinternationaltouristsaremorelikelytoevacuatethan domestictouristsduetounfamiliarityandknowledgeregarding thedestinationandhurricanesingeneral. Basedontheliterature,thehypothesesforthisstudywere speci edasfollowed: H12. Femaletouristsaremorelikelytoevacuatethanmale tourists. H13. Youngertouristsaremorelikelytoevacuatethanolder tourists. H14. AfricanAmericantouristsarelesslikelytoevacuatethan Caucasiantourists. H15. Touristswithhigherincomearemorelikelytoevacuatethan thosewithlowerincome. H16. Internationaltouristsaremorelikelytoevacuatethan touristsfromFlorida. 3.Methods 3.1.Sampleandsamplingframe Thepopulationofthisstudywastouristswhowerecurrently visitingFlorida.Thisstudyutilizedaninterceptingapproachin datacollectingtosampletourists.Inthisstudy,atouristwas de nedas “ anypersonwhoparticipatesintradeorrecreation activitiesoutsidethecountyofhisorherpermanentresidence orwhorentsorleasestransientlivingquartersoraccommodations ” (FloridaStatue125.0104(3)(a)).Screeningquestionswere utilizedtoensuretheeligibilityoftherespondents.Tomaximize therandomnessofparticipants,thesurveyadministrationused every n thformula.Everythirdeligibletouristineachsitewas approachedandaskedtocompletethesurveyafterverifyingtheir eligibility. 3.2.Studydesign Thisstudyusedastatedpreferencesurveytoelicittourists' evacuationdecisions.Theuseofstatedpreferencesurveysallowed elicitationofevacuationdecision-makingchoicesbasedonmultiplehypotheticalhurricanescenarios( McKelvey&Zavoina,1975 ; Smith,1999 ; Solisetal.,2010 ).Datacollectionforthisstudywas conductedinAugust-September2011duringtheAtlantichurricaneseasonbasedontheprepositionthatduringthehurricane season,peoplearemorelikelytocognitivelyponderandseek informationabouthurricanes.Surveyswereadministratedintwo sitesinOrlandoandFortLauderdaleBeach,Florida. Studentswerehiredtoadministerandinterceptsurveysin eachsite.Priortotheactualsurveyadministration,trainingwas conductedforstudentsurveyors.Apilotstudyintheformofa focusgroupandqualitativeinterviewswasadministeredto validatethe ndingsandthedesignofthesurveyinstrumentas wellasthetimeneededtocompletethesurveytominimizeany potentialsystematicerrors( Dillman,Smyth,&Christian,2009 ). Thesurveytookapproximately25mintocomplete. 3.3.Operationalization Thereweresixteenindependentvariablesandonedependent variableinthisstudy.Theindependentvariableswere:Riskspeci cbeliefs,individualconnectednesstohurricanes,current knowledge,hurricanepastexperience,sizeoftravelparty,prior visittodestination,presenceofchildren,presenceofelderly persons,theuseofanairplane,rentalvehicles,personalvehicles, gender,age,ethnicity,income,andplaceofresidency.Theevacuationdecisionwasthedependentvariable. Table1 summarizesthe variablesandtheirmeasurements. Toelicittheevacuationchoice,eighthypotheticalhurricane scenariosweredeveloped,witheachcontainingacombinationof threeattributes,eachwithtwolevels.Theattributesandthelevels were:Projectedhurricanepath(passingthroughthedestination andoffsetthedestination),projectedintensityatlandfall(category 1andcategory4)andtimetothedestination(48hand36h).Each respondentwasgiven4scenariostoevaluate,thentheywere askedtostatetheirchoiceofevacuationforagivenscenariousing a5pointLikertscalewith1 mostlikelytostayto5 mostlikelyto evacuate. Fig.1 illustratesthescenariousedtoelicitrespondents' likelihoodofevacuation.I.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 257

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Table1 Variablesandmeasurements. VariableMeasurementAdaptedfrom Individualcharacteristic Riskspeci cbeliefsFourstatementsusinga5-pointLikertscale ( stronglydisagree to stronglyagree )askingrespondents' perceptiononhurricanes. Rohrmann(2000) IndividualconnectednesstohurricanesThreestatementsmeasuringthelevelofindividuals'interest, importance,andcuriositywithregardtohurricanes witha5-pointLikertscale. Major(1998) HurricaneknowledgeFourT/Fquestionsabouthurricanes. Matyasetal.(2011) PasthurricaneexperiencesOneY/Nquestionaboutpastexperienceswithhurricaneimpacts. Solisetal.(2010) Travel – related SizeoftravelpartyOnequestionaskingthenumberoftravelparty. DecropandSnelders(2005) FirstvisittodestinationOneY/Nquestionaskingwhetherornotarespondenthasbeen tothedestinationbefore. SonmezandGraefe(1998b) PresenceofchildrenOneY/Nquestionaskingthepresenceofchildreninthetravelparty. NickersonandJurowski(2001) PresenceofelderlyOneY/Nquestionaskingthepresenceofelderlyinthetravelparty. DashandGladwin(2007) PlaneOneY/Nquestionaskingwhetherornottherespondent ew tothedestination. Matyasetal.(2011) RentalvehicleOneY/Nquestionaskingwhetherornottherespondentrents avehicleinthedestination. Matyasetal.(2011) PersonalvehiclesOneY/Nquestionaskingwhetherornottherespondentuses personalvehiclesinthedestination. Matyasetal.(2011) Socio-demography GenderOnequestionaskingtherespondent'sgender. Solisetal.(2010) AgeOnequestionaskingtherespondent'sage. Solisetal.(2010) EthnicityOnequestionaskingtherespondent'sethnicity. Solisetal.(2010) IncomeOnequestionaskingtherespondent'sincome. Whiteheadetal.(2000) PlaceofresidenceOnequestionaskingtherespondent'splaceofresidence. Matyasetal.(2011) Dependentvariable EvacuationdecisionA5-pointLikertscaleonthelikelihoodtoevacuate. ( mostlikelytostay to mostlikelytoevacuate ) Whiteheadetal.(2000) Fig.1. Exampleofhypotheticalhurricanescenario. I.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 258

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3.4.Dataanalysis Dataanalysisforthisstudyinvolvedtwostages.First,descriptivestatisticswereperformedonthevariables,whichallowedfor acloserlookatthenatureofthedatapattern.Next,inthesecond stage,multivariateanalysiswasperformed.Thisstudyemployed anorderedresponsemodel( McKelvey&Zavoina,1975 )procedure torelateallindividualcharacteristicsandevacuationchoices.As theresponsestoevacuationchoicesweremeasuredusingaLikert scale(1 – 5),anorderedprobitmodelwasemployed.Theordered probitmodelrecognizestheinherentorderingintheoutcome variablesofinterestandallowsforcalculationoftheprobabilityof eachlevelofoutcomeasafunctionofexplanatoryfactors.Inthe orderedprobitmodel,apositiveparameterindicatesthatthe correspondingfactorisassociatedwithahigherlikelihoodof evacuationandanegativeparameterindicatestheoppositeeffect. Thebetavaluesandtheoddratiosarethetwomainwaysinwhich peopletypicallyreportthemaineffectsoftheorderedresponse model( McKalvey&Zavoina,1975 ).However,unlikelogistic regression,theorderedprobitmodeldoesnotproduceoddratios. Theoddratiooforderedprobitmodelwasobtainedbytakingthe exponentofthebetacoef cient.Theparametersofthemodel wereestimatedusingthemaximumlikelihoodestimation. Wefocusedononemodelwithallpotentialexplanatory variablesratherthanmultiplemodelswithsubsetsofvariables, asourgoalwastodevelopadescriptivemodelandnotnecessarily apredictivemodel.Therefore,assessingaccuracyinpredictionwas notafocus.Thenextstepofthestudywouldbefurtherdata collectionwithmoresamples.Futurestudiescouldthenusethe modeltodopredictiveassessmentswiththenewdatasets.Itis believedthatthisprovidesabettersequenceoftestingratherthan splittingthedatarandomlyintotwosamplesandconductingcross validationwiththesamedataset. Weusedamaineffectmodeltocalculatetheeffectofeach variablewhileholdingtheothervariablesconstant.Usingone modelwithallpotentialexplanatoryvariablesreducestheriskof onevariablepickinguptheeffectofanothervariabledueto internalcorrelations.Forinstance,ifpeoplewithchildrenare generallymoreriskaverse,andoneofthetwoisexcludedinthe model,thenthisrelationshipisnotaccountedforinthe nal model.However,ifbothvariablesareincludedinthemodeland bothvariablesaresigni cant,itisexpectedthateachvariablehas pickedupthe “ true ” effectsofeachvariable.Priortoestimating themodel,thedatasetwasconvertedfromaperson-baseddata settoascenario-baseddatasettobetterre ectchoicesbasedon hypotheticalhurricanescenarios.AstatisticalanalysiswasperformedusingtheSPSS18package. 4.Results 4.1.Pro leoftherespondents Atotalof632eligibletouristswereapproachedinallsites.Five hundredandfortyfouragreedtoparticipate(responserate 86%). Outofthetotalof544completedsurveys,533weredeemed usableduetothecompletenessoftheresponses,andtherefore wereusedforthisstudy.Outof533,femalesencompassed56%. DomestictouristsfromoutsideofFloridaencompassed50%ofthe sample,followedbyinternationaltourists(38%)anddomestic touristsfromFlorida(12%),withamediantravelpartyofthree peopleinthegroup.Theyoungestrespondent'sagewas20years oldandtheoldestwas88,withamedianageof44.Morethanhalf oftherespondents(54%)indicatedthattheyhavebeeninthe destinationbefore.Amajorityofrespondentsdidnottravelwith children(64%)andwithoutelderlypersons(79%)intheirtravel party.Caucasiansrepresentedthemajorityofthesample(69%) followedbyHispanic(12%)andAfricanAmericans(8%).Fortyfour percentofrespondentsearned$50,000to$99,000annually. Acomparisonwiththeactualpro lesofFlorida'stouristsindicated thatwhilethesamplewascompatible,femaleswereoverrepresentedby4%( FloridaDepartmentofTransportation,2012 )and internationaltouristsby22%( VisitFlorida@,2012 ).Thesediscrepancieswereconsideredinthemanagerialimplication. Table2 outlinesthedescriptiveinformationabouttherespondents. Areliabilitytestwasemployedfor “ riskbelief” and “ individual connectednesstohurricanes ” itemstoensuretheconsistencyof theconstructmeasurements.TheoverallCronbachalphaforrisk beliefwas0.91,whiletheoverallCronbachalphafor “ individual connectednesstohurricanes ” was0.90,higherthanaminimum valueof0.70( Zinbarg,Revelle,Yovel,&Li,2005 )thatindicateda highconsistencyamongitemsineachscale.Consequently,asingle valuewascalculatedfromeachscaletorepresentindividual aggregate “ riskbelief ” and “ individualconnectednesstohurricanes. ” Themeanforaggregateriskbeliefwas3.2(S.D. 1.0), whilethemeanforoverallindividualconnectednesstohurricanes was2.4(S.D. 1.0)ina5-pointLikertscaletoindicatethatin averagerespondentshadmediumriskbeliefregardinghurricanes andlowindividualconnectednesstohurricaneswithhurricanes. Withregardtoknowledgeofhurricanes,anaggregatescorewas calculatedbasedonrespondents'responsestofourhurricane relatedquestions.Theoverallmeanscoreforhurricaneknowledge was1.5(S.D. 1.5)with4asamaximumscore,whichindicated overalllowhurricaneknowledgeamongparticipants. 4.2.Resultsoforderedprobitmodel Asonepersonrespondedtofourdifferentscenarios,thesample fortheorderedprobitmodelwas2137.The 2Loglikelihoodat convergencewas4246.393( 2 524.080,df 27,sig.0.001) Table2 Percentageofvariables. VariablesPercentage Gender Female56 Male44 Residence International38 DomesticoutsideFlorida50 DomesticinsideFlorida12 Income $125,000 o 17 $100,000 – $124,99920 $75,000 – $99,99922 $50,000 – $74,99922 $35,000 – $49,9999 $24,000 – $34,9995 o $24,0005 Ethnicity Caucasian69 Hispanic13 African8 Other10 PasthurricaneexperienceNo(49),Yes(51) FirstvisittodestinationNo(54),Yes(46) Transportation AirplaneNo(37),Yes(63) RentalvehicleNo(74),Yes(26) PersonalvehicleNo(65),Yes(35) Travelpartycomposition ChildrenNo(64),Yes(36) ElderlyNo(80),Yes(20) I.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 259

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indicatingasigni cantimprovementfromthebaselinemodel.The modelwithallindependentvariablesaccountedfor23%ofthe varianceintheevacuationlikelihood.Asourintentwastodevelopa descriptivemodel,thepercentageofvarianceexplainedre ected howtheaggregateperformanceofthemodelislikelytobeshould weundertakeapredictiveassessment. Table3 outlinestheresults oftheorderedprobitmodel. 4.2.1.Individualcharacteristics Theorderedprobitmodelindicatedthatthereweresigni cant effectsofindividualriskbeliefwithregardtohurricanes,individualconnectednesstohurricanes,hurricaneknowledge,andtheir pasthurricaneexperiencesinpredictingevacuationdecisions. Thosewithhigherriskbeliefswithregardtohurricaneswere morelikelytoevacuatethanthosewithlowerriskbelief( 0.07) thatupheld Hypothesis1 .Theoddratioofriskbeliefwas1.07 suggestingthatforoneunitincreaseinriskbelief,thelikelihoodof evacuationwouldincreaseby1.07. Twoindividualcharacteristics,individualconnectednessto hurricaneswithhurricanetopicsandhurricaneknowledgealso negativelyaffectedthelikelihoodofevacuation, 0.09and 0.09respectively.Thus,itupheld Hypothesis2and3 .For eachoneunitincreaseintheindividualconnectednesstohurricanesscaletheevacuationlikelihooddeclinedby.92.Likewisefor oneunitincreaseinthehurricaneknowledgescale,theevacuation likelihooddeclinedby.92. Pasthurricaneexperiencecontributedtothedecreaseof evacuationlikelihood( 0.49).Thecontributionofthisvariable inpredictinglikelihoodofevacuationwasfoundtobevery signi cant,withhavingpasthurricaneexperiencedecreasingthe evacuationlikelihoodby.61.Aspasthurricaneexperienceshowed negativeassociation, Hypothesis4 wassupported. 4.2.2.Travelrelatedvariables Withregardtotravelrelatedvariables,theorderedprobitmodel indicatedthatthesizeoftravelparty, rstvisit,presenceofchildren, presenceoftheelderly,andmodesoftransportationusedallhad signi canteffectsonevacuationlikelihood.Thesizeoftravelparty wasfoundtohaveapositiveeffectonevacuationlikelihood( 0.05) withoddratioof1.05,thatupheld Hypothesis5 .Thisindicatedthat thelargerthetravelparty,thehigherthelikelihoodtoevacuate. Thosewhohaveneverbeeninthedestinationbeforeshoweda higherpropensitytoevacuatethanthosewhovisitedthedestinationinthepast( 0.24).Theoddratiosindicatedthatthosewho were rsttimetouristswere1.27timesmorelikelytoevacuate thanthosewhowerenot rsttimevisitors.Withthis nding, Hypothesis6 wasupheld. Table3 Resultoftheorderedprobitmodel. Variables ParameterestimateOddratioSig. Individualcharacteristic H1.Riskbelief 0.071.070.008nH2.Individualconnectednesstohurricaneswithhurricanetopics 0.090.920.003nH3.Hurricaneknowledge 0.090.920.001nH4.Withpasthurricaneexperience(ref. without) 0.490.610.001nTravel – related H5.Numberoftravelparty0.051.050.001nH6.Firstvisittodestination(ref. no)0.241.270.001nH7.Withchildren(ref. without)0.161.170.007nH8.Withelderly(ref. without) 0.20.820.002nH9.Plane(ref. no)0.51.650.001nH10.Rentalvehicle(ref. no) 0.150.860.014nH11.Personalvehicle(ref. no)0.251.280.002nSocio-demography H12.Female(ref. male)0.241.270.001nH13.Age 0.011.010.001nH14.Ethnicity(ref. Caucasian) AfricanAmerican 0.020.970.787 Hispanic 0.121.130.119 Other 0.071.070.426 H15.Income(ref o 24) 125 o 0.321.370.019n100 – 124.9 0.171.180.204 75 – 99.9 0.041.030.767 50 – 74.9 0.040.960.749 35 – 49.9 0.131.140.346 24 – 34.9 0.070.930.658 H16.Placeofresidence(ref Florida) International0.361.430.001nDomesticoutsideFlorida0.241.280.003nThresholds Evacuate 1 0.54 – 0.007 Evacuate 2 0.02 – 0.898 Evacuate 3 0.75 – 0.001 Evacuate 4 1.46 – 0.001 2Loglikelihoodatconvergence( n 2137)4246.393( 2 524.080,df 27,sig.0.001) Pseudo R2Negelkerke0.23 Ref referencegroup.np o 0.05. I.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 260

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Acompositionoftravelpartyyieldedinterestingresults.Those withchildrenwere1.17timesmorelikelytoevacuatethanthose withoutchildren( 0.16)whichfoundsupportfor Hypothesis7 Thepresenceofelderlyindividualsinthetravelgroupaffected evacuationlikelihoodwiththosewithelderlybeing.82timesless likelytoevacuatethanthosewithoutthepresenceofelderlyin theirtravelgroup( 0.20).Therefore Hypothesis8 wasupheld. Modeoftransportationwasalsofoundtosigni cantlyaffect evacuationlikelihoodwithairplaneandpersonalvehicleusage speci edtohavepositiveeffects 0.50and 0.25whiletheuse ofrentalvehicleswasspeci edtohaveanegativeeffect 0.15. Theoddratioindicatedthatthosewho ewtoFloridawere1.65 timesmorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewhodidnot ytoFlorida. Thosewhoutilizedpersonalvehicleswere1.28timesmorelikely toevacuatethanthosewhodidnotusepersonalvehicles.Interestingly,thosewhorentedvehicleswere0.86timeslesslikelyto evacuatethanthosewhodidnotrentvehicles.Thus Hypothesis9 wasnotsupported,while Hypothesis10and11 weresupported. 4.2.3.Socio-demography Theresultsoftheorderedprobitmodelindicatedthatfemales were1.27timesmorelikelytoevacuatethanmales( 0.24), whichprovidedsupportfor Hypothesis12 .However,themodel indicatedthattheolderthetouristwasthemorelikelythistourist wastoevacuate( 0.01).Theoddratioindicatedthatforoneunit increaseinage,theevacuationlikelihoodincreasedby1.01.This ndingcontradictedthe ndingsin Hypothesis13 Theresultofthemodeldidnot ndsupportfor Hypothesis14 Inthisstudy,raceandethnicitywerenotfoundtosigni cantly affectthelikelihoodofevacuation.Withregardtoincome,only thosewhoearnedmorethan$125,000inannualhousehold incomewerefoundtovarysigni cantlysuchthattheywere1.37 timesmorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewhoearnedlessthan $24,000annually.Therefore, Hypothesis15 wasupheld. Likewise,theresidenceoforiginoftouristswasfoundto positivelyaffectevacuationlikelihood.Internationaltouristswere 1.43timesmorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewhoresidedin Florida( 0.36),whilethosewhowerefromoutsideFloridawere 1.28timesmorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewhowerefrom Florida( 1.28).This ndingprovidedsupporttouphold Hypothesis16 5.Discussion Theuseofdecisiontheoryunderuncertaintyandbounded rationalityallowedforadetailedexaminationofthedeterminants oftourists'evacuation.Byapplyingthetheorytotheestimated model,itcanbearguedthatthedecisionbythetouristregarding whetherornottoevacuateisadynamiccomplexphenomenon. Theorderedprobitmodelyieldsinterestingresults.Mosthypotheseswereupheld.Threehypotheseswerenotupheld: Hypothesis 9,13,and14 .Thoseweretheuseofplane,effectsofage,andrace andethnicityonevacuationlikelihood.Variablesassociatedwith individualcharacteristics(i.e.riskbelief,individualconnectedness tohurricaneswithhurricane,hurricaneknowledge,andpast hurricaneexperience)allhavesigni canteffects,withriskbelief withhurricaneshavingapositiveassociationwithevacuation likelihood,whileothervariablesincludingpastexperience,individualconnectednesstohurricanes,andhurricaneknowledgeall havingnegativeassociations. Thepositiveassociationofindividualriskbelieftoevacuationis explicableasriskbeliefre ectspersonalbeliefoncontrollability andoptimismbias( Rohrmann,1995 1999 ).Riskbeliefalsore ects anindividual'slevelofcon dencetoovercomeuncertainty( Quintal etal.,2010 ).Therefore,itisunderstandablethatindividualswith higherriskbeliefwillfeelmorevulnerableandperceiveless controllabilitywhenexposedtohurricanerisks.Astheseindividualsfeelmorethreatenedwithhurricanerisks,theywouldthen prefertoleavethedestinationwhenhurricanewarningsareissued toalleviateuncertainty( Sorensen&Sorensen,2007 ).Likewise, higherindividualconnectednesswithacertaintopichasbeen consistentlyfoundtoincreaseone'sselfcon dence( Aldooryetal., 2010 ; Grunig,1989 ),andthereforemakesonelesssusceptibleto externalthreats.Aspredicted,touristswithlowindividualconnectednesstohurricanesshowedahigherlikelihoodtoevacuate thanthosewithgreaterindividualconnectednesstohurricanes. Additionally,thenegativeassociationofhurricaneknowledge andevacuationlikelihoodindicatedthatthosewithhigherhurricaneknowledgearelesslikelytoevacuatethanthosewithlow hurricaneknowledge.Onepossibleexplanationisthatlevelof knowledgeofhurricaneanditsriskhelpthepersonintheir decisionmakingwithregardtoevacuation.Suf cientknowledge abouthurricaneswillallowtheindividualtomakeabetter decision,insteadofallowinghimorherselftobesusceptibleto externalthreats( Hoogenraadetal.,2004 ).Individualsareoften basedontheirownknowledgetomakeadecisioninarisky situation( Grif netal.,1999 ).Thesamplesforthisstudyindicated thatmostofthemhavelowknowledgewithregardtohurricanes thatmightberesultedduetothenatureofthetouristpopulation. Theeffectofknowledgewasconsistentwithwhatwasfoundin pastresearch,withleisuretravelersdemonstratingalowlevelof naturaldisasterawareness( Murphy&Bayley,1989 ; Johnstonetal., 2007 ).Thisstudyonlyusedfourquestionsthatweredesignedto measurethelevelofhurricaneknowledgethatmayaffectthe qualityofresponses.Abettersetofquestionsmaybeneededto fullycapturetheeffectofhurricaneknowledgeonevacuation. Theresultoftheorderprobitmodelonriskbelief,individual connectednesstohurricanes,andhurricaneknowledgesuggests theneedtoincreasetourists'self-con dence.Increasingindividual con dencecanbedoneinvariousways.Onepossiblewayisto increaseone'sknowledgelevelofhurricanes.Asmosttouristsin thisstudyindicatedthattheyhavelowindividualconnectedness tohurricanesandminimalhurricaneknowledge,itissuggestedthatactivitiesaimedatincreasinghurricaneawarenessamong touristsisneeded.Thismayincludecreatinghurricaneinformationinmultipleformatsthatareeasytoaccess. Inthisstudypasthurricaneexperienceshowsthatthose withoutpastexperiencewithhurricaneimpactsaremorelikely toevacuatethanthosethatexperiencedhurricaneimpactsinthe past.This ndingwasconsistentwiththe Matyasetal.(2011) study.Thisisaninteresting ndingasmoststudiesonresidents andtheirevacuationbehaviorsindicatethatpasthurricane experiencehasnoin uence( Lindelletal.,2005 )orpositive association( Riad,Norris,&Ruback,1999 ; Solisetal.,2010 ).One possibleexplanationisthatpeopleoftenusedpastexperiencesas areferencetomakeadecisioninthesamesituation( Johnson& Tversky,1983 ).Forthosewithoutpastexperiencesregardingthe impactsofanaturaldisaster,paststudieshavefoundthatthese individualswouldcreateareferencebasedonsocialcuesonwhich tobasetheirdecisionstoalleviateuncertainty( Major,1998 )and thatthosewithoutpastexperienceshaveconsistentlyindicated higherperceivedvulnerabilityastheyareuncertainaboutwhatto dointheeventofnaturaldisasters( Grif netal.,1998 ).Therefore, itisunderstandablethattouristswithoutpastexperienceswith hurricaneimpactsaremorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewith hurricaneexperienceastheyfeltthattheyweremorevulnerable intheeventofhurricanes. Resultsofanorderedprobitmodelalsoindicatetherolesof travelrelatedvariablesinpredictingthelikelihoodofevacuation. Aspredicted,thelargerthetravelpartythemorelikelytouristsare toleavethedestinationintheeventofahurricane.OneplausibleI.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 261

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explanationisthatwithmorepeopleinthegroup,onewillnot onlyconsiderhisorherownsafetybutalsootherindividualsin thegroup.Withregardtotheresultofthepresenceofchildren, the ndingssupportthepre-speci edhypothesis.Aspredicted, thepresenceofchildrenwasfoundtoincreasethelikelihoodof evacuation.Moreover,itwasinterestingtonotethatthosewho travelwithelderlypersonsaremorelikelytoremaininthe destination,whichisparallelwithpriorstudiesregardingresidenceevacuation( Gladwin,Gladwin,&Peacock,2001 ).One possibleexplanationisseniorsareatgreaterriskforhealth problemswhichcouldbeexacerbatedduringevacuation.Local destinationmanagementorganizationsneedtoestablishasystem torespondtotouristswhomayhavedisabilitiesorarenotas mobile.Contrarytowidelyheldexpectations,thosewhotraveled byairandthosewhousedtheirownvehicleweremorelikelyto evacuatethanthosewhorentedavehicle.OnepossibleexplanationisthatthosewhocometoFloridabyplanefeelmore vulnerablethanthosewhodonottakeanairplane.Theseare morelikelytobeinternationaltouristsandtouristsfromoutsideof Florida. The ndingswithregardtoowningapersonalvehicleare parallelwith Matyasetal.(2011) ,suchthatthosewithpersonal vehiclesaremorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewithoutapersonal vehicle.Inaddition,the ndingsalsocon rmpriorstudiesof residentevacuationbehaviorsthatarguethataccesstovehiclesis animportantfactorindictationevacuationlikelihood,withthose withaccessdemonstratingahigherlikelihoodofevacuationthan thosewithoutaccess( Eisenmannetal.,1997) .Onepossible explanationisthatconcernoverpotentialtraf cassociatedwith evacuationmaymotivatetouristswhohaveaccesstopersonal vehiclestoleavethedestinationassoonaspossibleinorderto avoidtraf c.Asperceptionoverpotentialtraf cmayplayaroleto bothmotivatetouriststoleavethedestinationortostayinthe destination,itisessentialtoinformtouristsofpotentialtraf c information,mainevacuationroutesaswellassecondaryevacuationroutes.Onenotableissuewithhurricaneevacuationis “ shadowevacuation ” ( Wolshon,Urbina,Wilmot,&Levitan, 2005 ),wherethosewhohavenotbeenorderedtoevacuatedecide toevacuate,contributingtomajortraf cintheinterstatesystem. WhilethestateofFloridahasdonewellinpostingevacuation routesignsalongevacuationroutes,touristswhoarenotfamiliar withtheroutesandproceduresmaystillneedmoreinformation regardingevacuationroutes. The ndingsrelatedtosocio-demographywerealsonoteworthy.Withregardtogender,the ndingsofthisstudywere consistentwithseveralpaststudiesthatfoundfemalestodemonstrateahigherpropensitytoevacuatethanmales( Lindelletal., 2005 ; Riadetal.,1999 ).Thissuggeststhatmalesandfemalesview evacuationdifferently.Inaddition,wealsobelievethatthe differenceisalsoduetosociallyconstructedgenderrolesinother factorsthatin uencetheintentionandcapacitytoevacuate.This mayincludebutnotlimitedtocare-givingrolesandperceptionof subjectiverisk.Duetothelimitationofourdata,ensuingresearch shouldexaminemorethoroughlygenderdifferencesinrisk exposureandperceptionsaswellastheircorrespondingin uencesonthedecisiontoevacuate. Thesigni canceoftheageofthetouristinpredictingthelikelihoodofevacuationisparallelwith Matyasetal.(2011) .One possibleexplanationisthatyoungertouristshavegreateraccessto “ evacuationincentives ” ( Perry,Lindell,&Greene,1981 ).Evacuationincentivesarefactorsthatwouldseemtoincreasethe probabilitythatathreatenedindividualwillcomplywithevacuationwarnings,forinstancegreatermobilityandgreateraccessto transportation.Nonetheless,furtherresearchneedstoexplore morethoroughlytheeffectofageonevacuationdecision.The ndingsindicatedthatraceandethnicitywerenotsigni cant factorsofthelikelihoodtoevacuate,whichisconsistentwiththe ndingsby DowandCutter(1998) and Baker(1991) .Morerecent studieshoweverhavefoundthatraceandethnicitydoesaffect evacuationrateswithCaucasianbeingmorelikelytoevacuate thanAfricanAmericans( Elderetal.,2007 ; Pennington-Grayetal., 2012 ).Thisdiscrepancymaybeduetothenatureofoursample; howeverfurtherresearchisneededtocon rmthis nding.Asa transientpopulation,touristshavedifferentconnectionswiththe destinationcomparedtoresidentswhoresideinthedestination andthatothervariablesbetterexplaintheintentiontoevacuate thanethnicity. Withregardtoincome,this ndingpartiallysupportsthe ndingsofpreviousstudiesonresidents'evacuationbehaviors ( Solisetal.,2010 )withhigherincomesbeingassociatedwitha greaterlikelihoodtoevacuate.Thisstudyalsofoundthatonly touristswithincomesofmorethan$125,000aremorelikelyto evacuatethanthosewhoearnedlessthan$24,000.Onepossible explanationisthatchangingtravelplansoftenrequiresasubstantialamountofmoneyforrelatedexpensessuchaschanging ightsandaccommodationplanswhichcouldexceedtheir allottedbudget.Therefore,itisunderstandablethatthosewith substantiallyhigherincomesaremorelikelytoleave. Withregardtoresidenceoforigin,thisstudyfoundthat internationaltouristsdemonstratedahigherpropensitytoevacuatethanthosefromotherstatesandfromFlorida.Thisis consistentwiththe ndingsof Matyasetal.(2011) .Onepossible explanationisthattheproximityofresidencehasaneffectonthe familiarityofhurricanes.Internationaltouristsmaynotbefamiliar withhurricanesandperceivethethreatdifferentlythanthosewho resideinFlorida.Therefore,internationaltouristsaremorelikely toleavethedestinationtoalleviateuncertainty.Sincemost internationaltourists ewtoFlorida,itisunderstandablethat the ndingsalsore ectthe ndingontheuseofairplaneswith thosewho ewtoFloridashowingahigherlikelihoodofevacuationthanthosewhodonottravelbyair.Thissuggeststheneedto provideeducationalinformationregardinghurricanesandevacuationorders.Suchinformationshouldbemadeavailableinmultiple languagestoaccommodateinternationaltourists.International touristsareveryvulnerableintheeventofahurricaneevacuation, astheymaynotknowwhattodoandhowtoseekinformation regardingtheevacuationduetolanguageandculturalbarriers. Therefore,localDestinationManagementOrganizationsneedto workwithaccommodations,policymakersandlocalemergency managementorganizationstoensuretheirawarenessandsafety. 6.Managerialimplications Withregardstomanagerialimplications,theresultsobtained intheestimatedmodelmaybeausefultooltoidentifythe willingnesstoevacuatebybroadtouristgroups.Thisinformation mayhelpdestinationmanagementorganizationsandemergencymanagementorganizationsinFloridatotargetresourcesmore ef ciently,focusingnotonlyongroupsoftouristswithhigher risksbutalsoonthosegroupswithalowerprobabilitytoevacuate. Duetothebackgroundoftourists,whoarenotfromthe destination,thedesignofmessagescouldbeimproved.For example,fromthisstudy,agewasfoundtobeasigni cant predictorofevacuationdecision,thus,choosingage-appropriate warningcharacteristicsbytailoringthephysicalcharacteristicsof messagestocompensateforage-relatedchangesinperceptionis recommended. Forvisualmessagestargetedattheelderly,typographical characteristicsoftextcanbeenhanced,suchasutilizingsanserif fontssuchasHelveticawhichhasbeenfoundtoincreasetext legibilityforelderly( Hartley,1999 ).Likewise,forauditoryI.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 262

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messages,theyneedtobebroadcastatfrequenciesthatarenot affectedbynoise-inducedlosssothatelderlycancomprehendthe messagebetter.Inaddition,sometimesfastmovingtext-crawlers onthetelevisionscreenmaybesubjecttoglareandusesmalltext sizeandassuch,internationaltouristswhomaynotspeakEnglish may nditdif culttocomprehendthecontentofthemessage. Slowermovementandtheuseoflargerfontsmaybeneededtoaid internationaltouriststoperceivethemessages. Anotherapproachtoimprovingtourists'textcomprehension forwrittenwarningsistoincreasethereadabilitybymakingthe textmessagesimple,directandeasytounderstand.Todoso, MiletiandSorensen(1995) suggeststheuseofspeci cpiecesof informationanchors:Hazard,location,timeandguidance.Therefore,messagesdirectedattouristsneedtohaveasimpli ed sentencestructureswithnon-technicaljargon.Thecontentof themessageneedstobewrittentolessentheneedforinferential processing. Whennewinformationisreceived,individualstypicallyinterpretitinthecontextoftheirpreexistingknowledge.Asfoundin thisstudy,whenindividualsarepresentedwithhurricaneadvisorymessages,theywilllikelytapintotheirpastexperienceor theirknowledgewithhurricanesandotherhazardsandreact basedontheoutcomesofthoseactions.Therefore,warning messagesshouldbepresentedinafashionthatisconsistentwith whattheyalreadyknow.Bydoingso,thecredibilityofthe warningmassagewillalsobeamended.Toassesswhattourists alreadyknowabouthurricaneriskandevacuationprocedures, effortsshouldbemadetoregularlyreviewtheeffectivenessof touristshurricaneawarenessprograms.Becausemuchoftourists' knowledgeabouthurricanes,especiallyrepeattouristswillbe determinedbyexposuretogeneralinformationmaterialssuchas pamphletsthatareencounteredduringahurricaneseason,itis criticallyimportanttodeterminewhatinformationismostcomprehensibleandmemorable. Toassesstourists'hurricaneknowledge,emergencyplanners cancollaboratewithlocaldestinationmanagementorganizations toconductsurveys,structuredinterviews,orfocusgroups.One advantageofsuchprogramsisabetterunderstandingofhow tourists'conceptualizehurricanerisks.Iftouristshavemisconceptionsregardingthecomplexityofrefundpoliciesassociatedwith hotelsor ights,thehurricaneawarenessandwarningscouldbe redesignedtofocusanderadicatethesemisunderstandings. Additionally,itisrecommendedthattourismorganizationsat thelocallevel(e.g.hotels,CVBs)inFloridaallocatefundsand resourcestorespondtothethreatorimpactofahurricane.These fundsrequirepolicieswhichaddresswhocanaccessthefund, whenthefundwillbeaccessed(underwhatconditions),who makesthedecisiononwhenandhowtousethefunds,etc.In addition,resourcesneedtobeusedspeci callytomeettourists' needs.Thismayincludebutisnotlimitedtotrainingemployees andstafftobereadythroughdrills,mockevacuations,aswellas designingashelteronthepropertyorcreatingabrochure,which showsthelocationofthenearestsheltersfortheguests.Byhaving reservedfundsandresources,thetourismorganizationswillbe abletoprovideaquickerresponsetomeettheneedoftourists.It isverychallengingtoaddresstouristneedsintheeventofacrisis withoutsuf cientfundsandresources. Next,tourismorganizationsalsoneedtoestablishcollaboration andmutualaidagreementswiththeemergencyagencies,other destinationmanagementorganizations,andotherkeypartners. Communicatinghurricaneriskstotouristsisoftenoverwhelming, especiallyforsmallorganizationsthatmaynothaveadequate resources.Collaborationandmutualagreementswithotherorganizationsalloworganizationstogainaccesstoresourcesthatmay notbeavailableintheirinventory.Tourismorganizationsalso needtocommunicateregularlywiththeemergencyagencies, especiallyatthecountyleveltogetcurrentinformationduring hurricaneseason.Assistancefromlocalemergencyagencymaybe neededifthesituationworsens,andguestsandtouristsneedtobe evacuated.Collaborationwithotherorganizationsiscrucialto allowresourcesharingandspeedycommunication ow,which willbeneededintheeventofhurricanes. Next,thetourismindustryinFloridaneedstodevelopguidelinestoaccommodatetourists.Thismayincludearefundpolicy, localshelterinformation,andassistance,andothersuchmeasures. Inaddition,thetourismindustryneedstoprovidemechanismsto informhurricaneriskstoguestsandtourists.Thesemechanisms canbeintheformofhurricanebrochuresthatcanbeplacedin severalmajorlocationssuchasairports,restareasontheFlorida TurnpikeandFloridaWelcomeCenterswhenevacuationsare issued.Theaccommodationindustrycanalsoprovidehurricane brochuresinthehotellobbyorintheguest'sroomwhen hurricanesareinthehorizon.Adequateinformationabouthurricaneriskswillhelpguestsandtouristsmakewell-informed decisionsandhelpalleviatetheirperceptionofrisk.Inaddition,theguidelineswillhelptoensuretourists'needsaremetandthey arekeptsafeaswellassendasignaltotouriststhatthehostsare caringandconcernedfortheirwell-being. 7.Conclusion Thestudyanalyzesthedeterminantsoftouristhurricane evacuationdecisionmakingbasedonthedecisiontheoryof boundedrationality.Thisstudycontributestotheliteratureby accountingfortwoissuesnormallyneglectedinpreviousevacuationstudies.First,itfocusedontransientpopulationsoftourists whoareinthedestinationwhenahurricaneevacuationissued. Secondly,thisstudyutilizesseveralvariablesthatwerenotusedin previousresidentevacuationstudiessuchasriskbeliefand individualconnectednesstohurricaneswithhurricanes. Thisstudyalsocontributestothepracticalimplicationsby highlightingseveralareasthatcanbeimprovedtostrengthenthe hurricaneevacuationstrategyfortouristsinFlorida.Asthe previoussectionindicates,thereareamyriadofwaysthetourist hurricaneevacuationproceduresinFloridacanbeimproved,for instance,byimprovingthecontentofthemessages,establishing partnershipsbetweenlocalCVBswithlocalemergencyagencies, allocatingbudgets,anddisseminatinginformation.Webelieve thatthe ndingscanbegeneralizedtootherstorm-pronedestinations.Nevertheless,giventhatthestudywasconductedinthe stateofFloridathatisconsideredtohaveabetterhurricane informationsystemcomparedtootherlocations,furtherresearch isneededtotestthepredictiveassessmentofthemodelby collectinglargersamplesanditsapplicationacrossdifferent tourismdestinations. Astouristsmayalreadybeinthedestinationforseveraldays beforetheylearnthatahurricaneiscoming,furtherstudyis neededtomeasuretheeffectoftheamountoftimebetween learningthatahurricaneiscomingandwhentheevacuationorder isissuedontheirevacuationdecision.Thosewhohavebeeninthe destinationlongermaybemorelikelytoevacuatethanthosewho hearthatahurricaneiscomingandanevacuationorderisissued onthe rstdayoftheirstayaftertheyhaveexperiencedmostof thedestination.However,thereisalsoapossibilitythatthese groupsarelesslikelytoevacuateasthelongertheystaythemore familiartheyarewiththedestinationanditssupportsystems. Thus,furtherstudyisneededtofullyunderstandtheeffectoftime whenatouristbecomesawareofthehurricanesthreatontheir evacuationdecision.Finally,whilethisstudydoesnotspeci cally addresstheeffectoftourists'socialinteractionintheprocessof evacuationdecision,thesigni canceofinformationgatheringinI.Cahyantoetal./JournalofDestinationMarketing&Management2(2014)253 – 265 263

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