Citation
Dengue Dynamics And Student Movement In Rural Mexico

Material Information

Title:
Dengue Dynamics And Student Movement In Rural Mexico
Series Title:
19th Annual Undergraduate Research Symposium
Creator:
Martinez, Silvio
Language:
English
Physical Description:
Undetermined

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Subjects / Keywords:
Center for Undergraduate Research
Center for Undergraduate Research
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Conference papers and proceedings
Poster

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Abstract:
Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases worldwide, with nearly 400 million infections annually across over 100 countries. We know that human population movement is one of the main drivers of transmission; however, it is not well understood how dengue persists in countries like Mexico despite dry, cool winters that are not favorable for transmission. Additionally, very few studies have explored the rural population contribution to dengue transmission in Mexico, which may play an important factor in reintroducing disease to more populous areas. This project aims to determine the effect of human population movement on the transmission of dengue in Yucatan, Mexico, and better understand the dynamics in rural and urban areas. We have analyzed the synthetic population of 1.8 million people in Yucatan moving between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools from Hladish et al. We found that students in rural areas frequently travel long distances of 15 kilometers or more daily, which may drive introduction of dengue to otherwise isolated populations. We will utilize an agent-based dengue transmission model to test whether reducing travel through a policy intervention (such as adding more schools) would significantly reduce the overall transmission rate of dengue. ( en )
General Note:
Research authors: Silvio D. Martinez, Thomas J. Hladish - University of Florida
General Note:
University Scholars Program
General Note:
Faculty Mentor: Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases worldwide, with nearly 400 million infections annually across over 100 countries. We know that human population movement is one of the main drivers of transmission; however, it is not well understood how dengue persists in countries like Mexico despite dry, cool winters that are not favorable for transmission. Additionally, very few studies have explored the rural population contribution to dengue transmission in Mexico, which may play an important factor in reintroducing disease to more populous areas. This project aims to determine the effect of human population movement on the transmission of dengue in Yucatan, Mexico, and better understand the dynamics in rural and urban areas. We have analyzed the synthetic population of 1.8 million people in Yucatan moving between 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools from Hladish et al. We found that students in rural areas frequently travel long distances of 15 kilometers or more daily, which may drive introduction of dengue to otherwise isolated populations. We will utilize an agent-based dengue transmission model to test whether reducing travel through a policy intervention (such as adding more schools) would significantly reduce the overall transmission rate of dengue. - Center for Undergraduate Research, University Scholars Program

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University of Florida
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Copyright Silvio Martinez. Permission granted to University of Florida to digitize and display this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.

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Dengue Dynamics & Student Movement in Rural Mexico Silvio D. Martinez, Thomas J. Hladish Introduction The Model & Methods Possible Issues with Schools References Discussion & Future Work Department of Biology & Emerging Pathogens Institute, University Of Florida, Gainesville, Florida Dengue disease is an increasing problem in the tropics, including Mexico Transmission and persistence not well understood; however, human movement is a key factor Considered an urban disease; rural areas may be important for persistence AIMS: Determine the effect of movement of children on dengue transmission Differences between rural and urban areas Explore a policy solution to reduce transmission such as adding schools to decrease spread of disease Possible explanations for long distance school travel: 1) school 2) Simulated model is missing some rural schools 3) Some rural areas lack schools and children travel long distances (the model) Agent based transmission model Synthetic population : 1.8 million people; 375,000 households and 100,000 workplaces and schools in Yucatan, Mexico R programming language used to draw maps and compute haversine distances between schools, work, and homes Catchment areas: these maps visualize the range each school covers, which we estimate to 15km We determined the areas lacking schools. We then traveled to Yucatan to explore these rural areas. Here, we discovered a new data set from 2017 with an updated list of schools. Available government data indicate that using the new data and Google Maps to improve what is known about the location of rural schools. Addressing the Issues Testing dengue transmission effect of adding rural schools: 1) Reduced human movement might reduce transmission 2) If the transmission is not affected, it shows the model is robust to changes in population structure In the future, we aim to use the transmission model to investigate the effect of adding schools to localities lacking schools nearby (8 10 km). Using the Google Maps API, we will geolocate schools from the new data set, and incorporate this into the model We aim to create a map defining urban & rural populations, and then analyze case data to find whether urban/rural areas experience different disease dynamics One of the various rural schools we found in Yucatan that was not in our data set. "Dengue and Severe Dengue." World Health Organization World Health Organization, 1 July 2016. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 91.7 (1994): 2395 2400. Print. Clinical Microbiology Reviews 11.3 (1998): 480 496. Print. Dantes, Hector Gomez, et al. "Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease in Mexico (2000 2011): A Systematic Literature Search and Analysis." PubMed PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 6 Nov. 2014. Nature 427 (2004). 344 347. Print. Science American Association for the Advancement of Science, 24 Mar. 2017. Hladish, Thomas J, et al. "Projected Impact of Dengue Vaccination in Yucatn, Mexico." PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 26 May 2016. van Brummelen, Glen Robert (2013). Heavenly Mathematics: The Forgotten Art of Spherical Trigonometry. Princeton University Press. ISBN 9780691148922. 0691148929. Retrieved 2015 11 10. Hladish et al. (Hladish)