Citation
Parameters (Carlisle, Pa.)

Material Information

Title:
Parameters (Carlisle, Pa.)
Series Title:
PB
Added title page title:
Journal of the US Army War College
Added title page title:
US Army War College quarterly
Added title page title:
US Army's senior professional journal
Added title page title:
U.S. Army's senior professional journal
Creator:
Army War College (U.S.)
Place of Publication:
Carlisle Barracks, PA
Publisher:
U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute
Publication Date:
Frequency:
Quarterly[1977-]
Three no. a year[ FORMER 1971-spring/summer 1972]
2 no. a year[ FORMER 1973-1976]
quarterly
regular
Language:
English

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Military art and science -- Periodicals ( lcsh )
Military art and science ( fast )
Genre:
Electronic journals.
Periodicals. ( fast )
serial ( sobekcm )
federal government publication ( marcgt )
periodical ( marcgt )
Electronic journals ( lcsh )
Periodicals ( fast )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with 1971.
General Note:
Subtitle varies.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
This item is a work of the U.S. federal government and not subject to copyright pursuant to 17 U.S.C. §105.
Resource Identifier:
785639003 ( OCLC )
72612715 ( LCCN )
2158-2106 ( ISSN )
ocn785639003
Classification:
355.005 ( ddc )

UFDC Membership

Aggregations:
Digital Military Collection

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PAGE 1

Contemporary Strategy & Landpower FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VISIT US AT http://www.carlisle.army.mil/The Quarterly The US Army War College Exploring Wars Character & NatureEmile Simpson Learning from Military TransformationsPat Proctor Damon V. ColettaRegional ChallengesTommy Ross Alexander Lanoszka Seth Cantey and Ricardo CorreaArmy Expansibility Rose P. KeravuriEric P. Shwedo VOL. 47 NO. 4 WINTER 2017PARAMETERS (USPS 413530) US Army War College ATTN: Parameters47 Ashburn Drive Carlisle, PA 17013-5010 Periodicals Postage Paid VOL. 47 NO. 4 WINTER 2017

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en-USParametersen-USen-US en-US en-USDisclaimer: en-US en-US Parametersen-USen-US Parametersen-USen-US en-USEditorial Board Members en-USContributing Editorsen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-US en-US en-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-US en-US en-USen-USen-USen-US en-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-US en-US en-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USen-USSecretary of the Armyen-US en-USen-USen-US en-USen-USCommandanten-US en-USen-USEditoren-US en-USen-USManaging Editoren-US en-USen-USAssistant Editoren-US en-US

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Vol. 47 No. 4 Winter 2017 5 From the Editor FEATURES Exploring Wars Character & Nature 7 Clausewitzs Theory of War and en-USen-US 19 Will Wars Nature Change in the en-USSeventh Military Revolution?en-USen-US Learning from Military Transformations 33 Lessons Unlearned: Army en-USTransformation and Low-en-US en-US 47 Navigating the Third en-US en-US en-USen-US Regional Challenges 63 Deterrence & Security Assistance: en-USThe South China Seaen-US 75 The Belarus Factor in en-USEuropean Securityen-US 85 Making Peace: Next en-USSteps in Colombiaen-USen-US en-US Army Expansibility 97 Expansibility and Army Intelligence en-US 107 Expansibility and Army en-US Special Operations Forcesen-US en-USReview Essay 119 Commanding Military Power en-US COMMENTARY AND RREPLY 121 On Military Force en-US en-US and Mass Migration in Europeen-US 122 The Author Replies en-US

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2 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 BOOK RREVIEWS War & Strategy 123 Rebooting Clausewitz: en-USOn en-US War en-US in the 21st Centuryen-USen-US 125 On Tactics: A Theory of Victory in Battle en-USen-US 126 Clausewitz en-USen-US 128 More on War en-USen-US en-USRegional Studies 130 Chinas Military Transformation en-USen-US 132 Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An en-USAmbitious and Uncertain Courseen-USen-US 134 Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire en-USen-US 137 NATOs Return to Europe: Engaging en-USUkraine, Russia, and Beyonden-USen-US en-US en-USTechnology & War 139 Nanoweapons: A Growing en-USThreat to Humanityen-USen-US 140 The Future of War: A Histor y en-USen-US 142 War in 140 Characters: How Social en-USen-US the Twenty-First Centuryen-USen-US en-USIrregular Warfare 143 Eisenhowers Guerrillas: The Jedburghs, en-USthe Maquis & the Liberation of Franceen-USen-US en-USand Dark Magico-Relgious Activitiesen-USen-US 147 The Forgotten Front: Patron-Client en-USRelationships in Counterinsurgencyen-USen-US 149 Gangs and the Military: Gansters, Bikers, en-USand Terrorists with Military Trainingen-USen-US

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Table of Contents 3 Utility of War 150 War and the Art of Governance: Consolidating en-US en-US Combat Success into Political Victoryen-USen-US 152 Assessing War: The Challenge of en-US en-US Measuring Success and Failureen-USen-US en-US 154 US Defense Budget Outcomes: Volatility and en-US en-US Predictability in Army Weapons Fundingen-USen-US 155 The Origins of the Grand Alliance: en-US en-US Anglo-American Military Collaborationen-US en-US from the Panay Incident to Pearl Harboren-USen-US 159 A ARTIcCLE IINDEX, VVOL. 47, 2017 $GGHQGD\035\003KH\003IROORZLQJ\003LQIRUPDWLRQ\003ZDV\003XSGDWHG\003RQ\003SDJH\003\034\033\003RI\003WKH\003$XWXPQ\003\025\023\024\032\003LVVXH\035\003\264\032\024\003 en-USSHUFHQW\003RI\003$PHULFDQ\003\)13.4 (RXWK\003GR\003QRW\003\PHHW\003VWDQGDUGV\IRU\003VHUYLFH\021\265

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From the Editor Exploring Wars Character & Nature Learning from Military T ransformations Regional Challenges Army Expansibility

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Clausewitzs Theory of War and Victory in Contemporary Conflict2018 Emile Simpson W On War Clausewitzs Theory of the Nature of War seine natur On War is natur On War n Clausewitz and Contemporary War

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8 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 3 4 5 On War On War On War On War On War

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Simpson 9 On War natural tendency logical On War On War On War On War On War

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10 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 seine natur Is Clausewitzs Theory of War Universal? On War immediate throw . . . On War On War The Transformation Clausewitz in the Twenty-First Century

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Simpson 11 On War On War Clausewitzs On War, A Biography Small Wars & Insurgencies

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12 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 bellum solemne guerre en forme guerre rgle On War Le Droit de Gens, ou, Principes de la loi Naturelle, Appliqus la Conduit et aux Affaires des Nations et des Souverains On War

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Simpson 13 On War bellum duellum The Rights of War and Peace On War On War

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14 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 On War is On War On War Clausewitzs Puzzle: The Political Theory of War

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Simpson 15 On War Networks, Hierarchies, and Victory in Clausewitzs Theory of Warfare Clausewitz in the Twenty-First Century Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World

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16 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 The Accidental Guerilla On War The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Simpson 17 Conclusion On War On War On War

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18 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Will Wars Nature Change in the Seventh Military Revolution? O War in the Age of Intelligent Machines 3 4 n War in the Age of Intelligent Machines Autonomous Weapons Systems: A Brief Survey of Development, Operational, Legal and Ethical Issues Policy Challenges of Accelerating Technological Change: Security The Dynamics of Military Revolution, 1300

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20 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Military Revolution Implications 5 Dynamics of Military Revolution

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE The Autonomous Revolution Army of None, Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War Final Report of the Defense Science Board (DSB) Summer Study on Autonomy AI, Robots and Swarms: Issues, Questions and Recommended Studies Naval Weapons of World War Two n Joint Operating Environment JOE 2035: The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Future Warfare Strategic Trends Programme: Global Strategic TrendsOut to 2045, 5th ed Closer Than You Think: The Implications of the Third Offset Strategy for the U.S. Army Insights for the Third

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22 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow 20YY: Preparing for War in the Robotic Age Joint Force Quarterly Game Changers: Disruptive Technology and U.S. Defense Strategy

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE The Nature and Character of War nature character Hearing on Chinas Advanced Weapons, Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Modern Strategy On War Lifting the Fog of War,

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24 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 33 America and the Future of War: The Past as Prologue n Breaking Defense Clausewitz and Contemporary War European Legacy n Globalization and the Clausewitzian Nature of War Globalization and the Clausewitzian Nature of War A History of Military Thought: From the Enlightenment to the Cold War On War

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE An Analytical Framework 34 35 Parameters Violence On WarClausewitz and Contemporary War American Interest International Security and War: Politics and Grand Strategy in the 21st Century America and the Future of War On War Reading Clausewitz On War International Security On War

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26 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 not only alters its nature 43The Impact on Wars Nature Passion/Enmity 44 45 On War natur Clausewitzs On War: A Biography Vom Kriege Hinterlassenes Werk des Generals Carl von Clausewitz: vollstndige Ausgabe im Urtext, drei Teile in einem Band Clausewitz and Contemporary War Hearing on Cyber-Enabled Information Operations, Before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity Diplomat

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Chance/Friction. Foreign Affairs

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28 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 coup doeil 53 54 55 On War On War Breaking Defense On War Clausewitz and Contemporary War On War On War

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE Reason/Political Direction On War Humane Warfare Parameters Brookings Institution Proceedings Survival Clausewitz and the State: The Man, His Theories, and His Times

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30 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Strategic Tactical

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EXPLORING WARS CHARAcCTeER & NNATUReE The Unchanging Elements Conclusion Globalization and the Nature of War. Clausewitzian Friction and Future War Charting a Course, Strategic Choices for a New Administration Seven Pillars of Wisdom: A Triumph MIT Technology Review

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Lessons Unlearned: Army Transformation and Low-Intensity Conflict M 3 4 The Iraq Wars and Americas Military Revolution Iraq Wars

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34 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 5 Project 2025 Blackhawk Down Readers Guide: FM 100-5, 1986 Comparison Iraq Wars For the Common Defense: A Military History of the United States from 1607 to 2012 n n n Common Defense n n n Common Defense n War in the Information Age n n n Project 2025 n n n n Iraq WarsCommon Defense

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Proctor 35 mission creep Iraq Wars Common Defense Kevlar Legions: The Transformation of the US Army, 1989 Prepare the Army for War: A Historical Overview of the Army Training and Doctrine Command, 1973 War in the Information Age Decisive Victory: Americas Power Projection Army War in the Information Age Iraq Wars Military Review

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36 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act of 1986 n Learning to Forget: US Army Counterinsurgency Doctrine and Practice from Vietnam to Iraq Parameters Decisive Victory Armed Peacekeepers in Bosnia Armed Peacekeepers

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Proctor 37 33 34 35 Armed Peacekeepers Armed Peacekeepers Common Defense Common Defense Armed Peacekeepers Military Operations: The US Army in Bosnia and Herzegovina Armed Peacekeepers Armed Peacekeepers

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38 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 43 Joint Vision 2010 44 Joint Vision 2010 45 Joint Vision 2010 Armed Peacekeepers Armed Peacekeepers Directions for Defense: Report of the Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed Forces Common Defense Common Defense Joint Vision 2010 n Joint Vision 2010

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Proctor 39 Joint Vision 2010 n Army Soldiers Are Our Credentials: The Collected Works and Selected Papers of the Thirty-third Chief of Staff, United States Army Prepare the Army n Knowledge and Speed: Battle Force and the US Army of 2025 n Parameters n n Russias Invasion of Chechnya: A Preliminary Assessment Knowledge and Speed

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40 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 53 54 55 Future Warfare: Anthology Parameters Military Review Sharp Corners: Urban Operations at Centurys End Sharp Corners

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Proctor 41 Armed Peacekeepers Armed Peacekeepers n Armed Peacekeepers Parameters Multiservice Procedures for Humanitarian Assistance Operations

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42 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Parameters Common Defense Operation Joint Guardian: The US Army in Kosovo Operation Joint Guardian Defense Daily Helicopter News Iraq Wars Strategic Survey Operation Joint Guardian Joint Force Quarterly Kevlar Legions

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Proctor 43 Kevlar Legions The Armys Twofer: The Dual Role of the Interim Force National Defense Operations

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44 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Common Defense

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Proctor 45 Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq The Forever War State of Denial: Bush at War, Part III Iraq Study Group Report: The Way ForwardA New Approach The Endgame: The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Navigating the Third Offset Strategy Damon V. Coletta Space & Defense Courting Science: Securing the Foundation for a Second American Century W 3 Atlantic The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon Glimmer of a New Leviathan: Total War in the Realism of Niebuhr, Morgenthau, and Waltz Waging Peace: How Eisenhower Shaped an Enduring Cold War Strategy A Fiery Peace in a Cold War: Bernard Schriever and the Ultimate Weapon

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48 Parameters 47(4) Winter 20174 5 The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle Parameters From Active Defense to AirLand Battle: The Development of Army Doctrine, 1973 n n International Security International Security The Insurgents: David Petraeus and the Plot to Change the American Way of War The Fourth Star: Four Generals and the Epic Struggle for the Future of the United States Army

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Coletta 49 Foreign Affair Foreign Affairs Defense News Defense One n n n Breaking Defense MIT Technology Review Breaking Defense

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50 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 process Top-Down Success: Riding the Post-World War II Model

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Coletta 51 Science: The Endless Frontier Endless Frontier: Vannevar Bush, Engineer of the American Century n n Science: The Endless Frontier Arms Control: Readings from Stanford Magazine Wired

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52 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House The Presidential Difference: Leadership Style from FDR to Clinton n n My Journey at the Nuclear Brink National Interest Atlantic America between the Wars: From 11/9 to 9/11 Foreign Affairs

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Coletta 53 Supreme Command The Politics of Strategic Aircraft Modernization The Market for Force: The Consequences of Privatizing Security International Security Supreme Command: Soldiers, Statesmen, and Leadership in Wartime

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54 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Foreign Affairs

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Coletta 55 The Pentagons Missing Cadre Defense News Assessment of Accelerated Acquisition of Defense Programs Time Against the Odds: Driving Defense Innovation in a Change-Resistant Ecosystem

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56 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 33 The Politics of Innovation: Why Some Countries Are Better than Others at Science and Technology Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Why Public Efforts to Boost Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital Have Failed and What to Do About It n before n Politics of Innovation The Tyranny of Experts: Economists, Dictators, and the Forgotten Rights of the Poor Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation The Competitive Advantage of Nations Washington Post

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Coletta 57 34 Boulevard of Broken Dreams 35 America Inc.? Space & Defense Politics of Innovation Boulevard of Broken Dreams America Inc.? Innovation and Enterprise in the National Security State The Great American University: Its Rise to Preeminence; Its Indispensable National Role; Why It Must Be Protected

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58 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 eventually spin-on esprit autonomy Foreign Affairs The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations Soldier and the State

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Coletta 59 Defense AT&L

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60 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 43 44 Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making Defense News Defense News Breaking Defense n Soldier and the State Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and CivilMilitary Relations Small Wars & Insurgencies

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LLeEARNING FROM MMILITARY TTRANSFORMATIONS Coletta 61 esprit de corps 45 avoid Insurgents Soldier and the State autonomy access Defense News

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62 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Deterrence & Security Assistance: The South China Sea Tommy Ross A

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64 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 per se n Telegraph The National Defense Strategy of the United States of America: 2018

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Ross 65 Strategic Gaps 3 Countering Chinas Adventurism in the South China Sea: Strategy Options for the United States and Its Allies

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66 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 4 Security Assistance in Southeast Asia Countering Chinas Adventurism

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Ross 67 Current Assessment 5 Operations, and Related Programs: Fiscal Year 2017 (Washington, DC: DoS, 2016) n n n n n n n n

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68 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 A New Strategy Programs, Fiscal Year 2018 FY 2016 Section 1211(a) Report to Congress on DoD Assistance to Foreign Security Forces

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Ross 69 Strategic Security Assistance Relevant Capacity-Building

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70 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Straits Times

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Ross 71 Provocation Planning Navy Times,

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72 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Army Involvement Diplomat

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Ross 73 Foreign Affairs Military Diplomacy Foreign Affairs

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74 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES The Belarus Factor in European Security Alexander Lanoszka S

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76 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Belarusian Foreign Policy since Independence 3 4 5 Democratization Security Dynamics in the Former Soviet Bloc n EuropeAsia Studies 66 Swords and Sustenance: The Economics of Security in Belarus and Ukraine

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Lanoszka 77 n n n Russian Energy Policy and Military Power: Putins Quest for Greatness n n n n n n The Militarization of the Collective Security Treaty Organization n n n The Military Doctrine of the Republic of Belarus n n Demokratizatsiya n n

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78 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Analytical Neglect of Belarus Republic of Belarus, Parliamentary Elections, 11 September 2016: OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report Survival RUSI Journal Central European Security after Crimea: The Case for Strengthening NATOs Eastern Defenses Survival Survival Survival CrossDomain Coercion: The Current Russian Art of Strategy International Affairs

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Lanoszka 79 Parameters Reinforcing Deterrence on NATOs Eastern Flank: Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics Belarus Digest Belarus Digest Belarusian Army: Its Capacities and Role in the Region Swords and Sustenance

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80 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Political Discord between Belarus and Russia 33 The Military Balance 2016 Military Balance 2016 The Military Balance 2017 Survival

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Lanoszka 81 34 35 Democracy Moscow Times International Spectator Foreign Affairs n Belarus in Focus Military Balance 2017 Belarus Digest Belarus Renewed Subordination to Russia: Unconditional Surrender or Hard Bargain?

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82 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 43 44 45 Communist and Post-Communist Studies Parameters RUSI Journal Belarus Digest Belarusian Telegraph Agency

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Lanoszka 83 Strategic Implications Eurasia Daily Monitor Defense News Alliance Politics n n n n American Political Science Review

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84 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Making Peace: Next Steps in Colombia Seth Cantey and Ricardo Correa O 3 4

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86 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Colombias War La Violencia 5 La Violencia The FARC: The Longest Insurgency Social Capital

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Cantey and Correa 87

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88 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Failed Negotiations New York Times

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Cantey and Correa 89 n n n Narcotics Threat from Colombia Continues to Grow n Chronicle of a Failure Foretold: The Peace Process of Colombian President Andrs Pastrana La palabra bajo fuego 142.

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90 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 mano dura Dialogue in Havana n Semana

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Cantey and Correa 91 Stanford Politics

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92 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Recommendations for US Defense Policy Continue robust assistance to Colombias armed forces.

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Cantey and Correa 93 Advocate for limiting the internal role of the Colombian military. Condition security assistance on increased respect for human rights. Guardian Foreign Policy Colombia, the United States, and Security Cooperation by Proxy

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94 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Assist the expansion of state presence throughout Colombia. The Hill

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RReEGIONAL CHALLeENGeES Cantey and Correa 95 Augment support for guerrilla reintegration. Push for a comprehensive truth and reconciliation commission.

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96 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Conclusion Seth Cantey Parsing Parley: Lessons on Peacemaking from Colombia and the Middle East Ricardo Correa La Patria

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ARMY EXPa ANSIBILITY Expansibility and Army IntelligenceRose P. Keravuori Rose P. Keravuori COL Rose P. Keravuori, a US Army Reserve military intelligence deputy director, US Central Command Commanders Action Military Academy and in a variety of military intelligence. Americas military intelligence resources from counterinsurgency competitor in a major war.T1 since World War II. Now, after decades of conducting limited 1 as well as its coalition partners.Assumptions involving Country A in European Commands area of responsibility require military intelligence to increase linguists, cultural experts, and (Carlisle, PA, US Army War

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98 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 3Expanding Military Intelligence 4 9/11 Commission Report 5 The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Keravuori 99 Expanding Skills and Capabilities The Stryker Brigade Combat Team Infantry Battalion Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance: DOD Can Better Assess and Integrate ISR Capabilities and Oversee Development of Future ISR Requirements 201st Expeditionary Military Intelligence Brigade

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100 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Keravuori 101 Army Reserve Joint and National Intelligence Support to Military Operations Army Reserve Military Intelligence: Time for Change

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102 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Keravuori 103 National Guard

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104 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Civilians Contractors 33 34 Nation

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Keravuori 105 35 Coalition Partners Foreign Policy

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106 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017Conclusion 43

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Expansibility and Army Special Operations Forces A

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108 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 The Key to Success Special Forces 3 4 5 n n n n n n n n n n

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Shwedo 109 n Current Operations, Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) Worldwide by Command ARSOF Next: A Return to First Principles (Fort Bragg, NC: ARSOF, [2015]),

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110 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 n n n

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Shwedo 111 n n n n n Army Special Operations Forces Unconventional Warfare n n n ARSOF Next n n n Civil Affairs USAJFKSWCS Academic Handbook Fiscal Year 2015 n n n Civil Affairs Operations

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112 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 n n Fort Hood Sentinel Delta Report

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Shwedo 113 Military Information Support Operations 33 34 35 ARSOF Psychological Operations Current Structure Delta Report

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114 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Ranger Regiment n

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Shwedo 115 Special Operations Aviation Regiment 43 n n n n

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116 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 44 45 Parameters

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AARMY EXPANSIBILITY Shwedo 117 Conclusion ARSOF Next 53 ARSOF Next

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Commanding Military PowerRobert L. Batemanen-USRobert L. Bateman, a en-US retired Army lieutenant en-US colonel, is a former en-US strategist assigned en-US en-US en-US the Secretary en-US en-US of Defense. Books Reviewed War By Numbers By Christopher A. Lawrence Commanding Military Power: Organizing for Victory and Defeat on the By Ryan GrauerI programming. Remember, he said, the computer will do exactly as it is told. It will compute any values you place into it, in exactly the manner that you tell it to. So if its garbage that goes in, its garbage that comes out. I did not know at the time that this is such a truism among computer scientists that it even has an acronym, GIGO. War By Numbers written by the head of the DuPuy Institute Christopher Lawrence, consists largely of graphs and charts that purport to demonstrate the effects of various factors upon combat success ratios. The book does not attempt to develop a new theory of war, per se, but claims that, its author establishes what we know about conventional combat and why we know it. By demonstrating the impact of a variety of factors have on combat he moves such analysis beyond the work of matter how you slice it that is a pretty lofty claim. Unfortunately, in reaching for this understanding Lawrence exclusively uses databases created by the DuPuy Institute and formulas that are uniquely their own. And that is the insurmountable problem with War By Numbers one that undercuts any claim it might have to move beyond Clausewitz. In this book there is a near complete lack of transparency and, therefore, also of reproducibility of the research or the means of analysis. The endnotes that do exist (and some chapters DuPuy Institute studies (available for a fee of course). In other words, we cannot tell what has gone into their computer analysis at all, and we have no insights as to what their computer algorithms may be. Thus, we cannot tell if there have been any mistakes, we have no idea what the quality of the research supporting those databases might be, or in almost all cases even what the original historical sources might have been. All of this information is proprietary to the institute, and if you want access, it will cost you tens of thousands of dollars, though what a customer might get for that money is unclear. Like Isaac Asimovs character Hari Seldon and that other wonderful manipulator of reality, the Wizard of Oz Lawrence hides his workings (and data) behind a curtain. In essence what he has done is produce charts tions match the historical reality. But there is no way to determine if if some of the numbers have been fudged in order to make the outcome appear to match what they alone declare was the historical reality. Thus, a reader is effectively required to believe their de facto assertion, trust us, we know more than you do.

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120 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017In short, what this book amounts to is a massive piece of corporate contracted studies. It is a 374 page infomercial. But the kicker is that it is one that you are expected to pay for the privilege of reading. In distinct contrast, there stands a new work of theory. It is sup ported with reproducible research, as well as a call for other academics to further the examination of the theory through the case studies pre sented. Ryan Grauers Commanding Military Power is a solid work fusing evidence with a theory that seeks to explain. It is a book that professional soldiers, academic historians (and for that matter amateur historians), international relations specialists and politicians should read, consider, and as far as possible replicate and develop. One of the most fruitful methods of advancing our incomplete understanding of war, in all permutations, is to introduce new intellectual of war. Clifford Rodgers quite successfully advanced the understanding of military revolutions by importing the genetic/biological idea of punctuated equilibrium in the 1990s. Clausewitz himself borrowed business, economics, and political science) does the same to great effect. In Commanding Military Power Grauer initially observes that from a theoretical perspective, no extant model of military power incorpo rates armed forces capacities to cope with and overcome the effects of calls command structure theory. Simply stated, Grauer proposes that means that armed forces used to organize and manage information and understand how much combat power that force may be able to generate such as the ratios of subordinates to leaders, the degree of centralization in decision making, and the communications network used to transmit and process data, a military force can match its structure to the particu In developing his arguments, he examines four unique case studies, Japanese War, the second is from the Chinese Civil War, while the third and fourth both come from the latter phases of the Korean War. Each case study is well researched, leans heavily upon primary sources, and is worth reading alone. But more importantly, because they are studies with reproducible research, they are open to critique and revision. Indeed, that is much of the point of the work. Grauer is explicit in this. his work, unpack and engage with the theory he presents, and take that theory to the next level by applying it to other historical case studies to work.

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Commentary and Reply On Military Force and Mass Migration in Europe This commentary responds to Matthew N. Metzel and John M. Lorenzens article Military Force and Mass Migration in Europe published in the Autumn 2017 issue of (vol. 47, no.3).I (Strategic Insights Weapons of Mass Destruction

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122 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Parameters Strategic Insights The Author RepliesI

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Rebooting Clausewitz: On War in the 21st Century By Christopher CokerReviewed by Dale C. Eikmeier, Assistant Professor, US Army Command and C On War Rebooting Clausewitz On War in the 21st Century On War On War On War On War On War On War WAR & SSTRATeEGY New York: Oxford University Press, 2017 176 pages $24.95

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124 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 On War Rebooting Clausewitz On War On War Rebooting

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Book Reviews: War & Strategy 125On Tactics: A Theory of Victory in Battle By B. A. FriedmanB Principles of War On Tactics Human Face of War Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2017 256 pages $29.95

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126 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 The Principles of War for the Information Age On Tactics On Tactics On Tactics Clausewitz By Bruno ColsonReviewed by Vanya Eftimova Bellinger, Visiting Professor, US Army War CollegeA On War Paris: Perrin, 2016 513 pages (in French) .00

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Book Reviews: War & Strategy 127 Napoleon On War On War Bildungsreise ( On War

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128 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Clausewitz Perrin More On War By Martin van CreveldT Command in War Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton More On War is Clausewitzs On War: A Biography Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017 227 pages $16.36

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Book Reviews: War & Strategy 129 Military Strategy: A Very Short Introduction More On War On Wars Air Campaign Cyberspace and International Relations The Cyberwar Mirage and the Utility of Cyberattacks in WarHow to Make Real Use of Clausewitz in the Age of Cyberspace

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130 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 More On War On War More On War RReEGIONAL SSTUDIeES Chinas Military Transformation By You JiReviewed by Andrew Scobell, Senior Political Scientist, RAND CorporationO Chinas Military Transformation Cambridge: Polity, 2016 284 pages $22.95

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Book Reviews: Regional Studies 131 Chinese Military Reforms in the Age of Xi Jinping: Drivers, Challenges, and Implications Chinas Military Transformation The Armed Forces of China

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132 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Chinese Naval Shipbuilding: An Ambitious and Uncertain Course By Andrew S. EricksonC Chinese Naval Shipbuilding Annapolis, MD: China Maritime Institute and The Naval Institute Press, 2016 332 pages $28.83

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Book Reviews: Regional Studies 133 Liaoning

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134 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017Kilo Yuan Han Jin Sang Chinese Naval Shipbuilding Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire By Agnia GrigasReviewed by Richard J. Krickus, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the Strategy at the US Marine Corps University.I New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2016 352 pages $39.98

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Book Reviews: Regional Studies 135 Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire Beyond Crimea

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136 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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Book Reviews: Regional Studies 137NATOs Return to Europe: Engaging Ukraine, Russia, and Beyond Edited by Rebecca R. Moore and Damon ColettaReviewed by Elie Perot, PhD candidate, Institute for European Studies (IES), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB)T NATOs Return to Europe: Engaging Ukraine, Russia, and Beyond Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2017 296 pages $104.95

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138 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 NATOS Return to Europe

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Book Reviews: Technology & War 139 TTecECHNOLOGY & WAR Nanoweapons: A Growing Threat to Humanity By Louis A. Del MonteReviewed by Robert J. Bunker, Adjunct Research Professor, Strategic Studies Institute, US ArmyT Nanoweapons Lincoln, NE: Potomac, 2017 246 pages $29.85

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140 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 The White Plague Nanoweapons Engines of Creation Nanotechnology and Homeland Security Military Nanotechnology Nanotechnology for Chemical and Biological Defense The Future of War: A History By Lawrence FreedmanReviewed by Robert J. Bunker, Adjunct Research Professor, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War CollegeL The Future of War: A History Parameters Beyond Surprise Attack The Future of War New York: Public 400 pages $30.00

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Book Reviews: Technology & War 141 The Future of War: A History New Wars The Future of War

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142 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 War in 140 Characters: How Social Media is Reshaping By David PatrikarakosReviewed by James Farwell, Associate Fellow in the Centre for Strategic Communication, Department of War Studies, Kings CollegeT New York: Basic Books, 2017 320 pages $17.67

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Book Reviews: Irregular Warfare 143 IIRReEGULAR WARFAReE Eisenhowers Guerrillas: The Jedburghs, the Maquis, & the Liberation of France By Benjamin F. JonesReviewed by Raymond A. Millen, Professor of Security Sector, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, US Army War CollegeIn Eisenhowers Guerrillas New York: Oxford University Press, 2016 384 pages $32.00

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144 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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Book Reviews: Irregular Warfare 145 Eisenhowers Guerrillas Religious Activities Edited by Robert J. BunkerReviewed by Nathan Jones, Associate Professor, Department of Security Studies, Sam Houston State UniversityB Activitie Bloomington, IN: iUniverse, 2016 334 pages $19.95

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Book Reviews: Irregular Warfare 147The Forgotten Front: Patron-Client Relationships in Counterinsurgency By Walter C. Ladwig IIIReviewed by Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Strategy and Policy Department, US Naval War CollegeIn The Forgotten Front: Patron-Client Relationships in Counterinsurgency, The Forgotten Front New York: Cambridge University Press, 2017 360 pages $28.97

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148 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Adventures in Chaos: American Intervention for Reform in the Third World The Forgotten Front The Forgotten Front

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Book Reviews: Irregular Warfare 149Gangs and the Military: Gangsters, Bikers, and Terrorists with Military Training By Carter F. SmithReviewed by Robert J. Bunker, Adjunct Research Professor, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War CollegeT Gangs and the Military: Gangsters, Bikers, and Terrorists with Military Training Lanham, MD: Rowman & 282 pages $38.00

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150 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Irregular Army Gangs and the Military UUTILITY OF WAR War and the Art of Governance: Consolidating Combat Success into Political Victory By Nadia SchadlowReviewed by Conrad Crane, Chief of Historical Series of the US Army Heritage and Education Center, US Army War CollegeA Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2017 344 pages $32.75

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Book Reviews: Utility of War 151 War and the Art of Governance Dr. Strangelove

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152 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017Assessing War: The Challenge of Measuring Success and Failure Edited By Leo J. Blanken, Hy Rothstein, and Jason LeporeReviewed by John A. Bonin, Professor of Concepts and Doctrine, US Army War CollegeAssessing War: The Challenge of Measuring Success and Failure and Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2015 352 pages $34.38

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Book Reviews: Utility of War 153 Assessing War

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154 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017US Defense Budget Outcomes: Volatility and Predictability in Army Weapons Funding By Heidi Brockmann DemarestReviewed by Lawrence Korb, Center for American ProgressI US Defense Budget Outcomes: Volatility and Predictability in Army Weapons Funding New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017 205 pages $106.00

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Book Reviews: Utility of War 155 The Origins of the Grand Alliance: Anglo-American Military Collaboration from the Panay Incident to Pearl Harbor By William T. JohnsenReviewed by Henry G. Gole, author of The Road to Rainbow: Army Planning for Global War, 1934I Origins of the Grand Alliance, The Liberation Trilogy Lexington: University of Kentucky, 2017 406 pages $50.00

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156 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017

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Book Reviews: Utility of War 157 Repulse Prince of Wales

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Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Article Index, Volume 47, 2017

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160 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017 Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters

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Article Index, Volume 47, 2017 161 Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters

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Article Submissions Content RequirementsScope: Audience: Clearance: Concurrent Submissions: Formatting RequirementsLength: File Type and Layout: Visual Aids: Citations: Parameters Chicago Manual of Style Submission RequirementsSubmit to: Include: Lead Times: Note: Lead times only ensure the editor will consider a manuscript for recommend a manuscript for publication in any upcoming issue to meet space or topic requirements. Review Process:

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164 Parameters 47(4) Winter 2017Book Review SubmissionsParameters

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en-USThe US Army War College US Army War College QuarterlyParameters47 Ashburn Drive | Carlisle PA 17013-5010 717-245-4943 http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/Parameters/ e-mail: usarmy.carlisle.awc.mbx.parameters@mail.mil The US Army War College Quarterly, Parameters is a refereed forum for contemporary strategy and landpower issues. It academia concerned with national security affairs. Parameters is indexed in, inter alia, Air University Library Index to Military Periodicals, US Government Periodicals Index LexisNexis Government Periodicals Index Worldwide Political Science Abstracts Lancaster Index to Defence & International Security Literature (UK), and PAIS Bulletin. Book reviews are indexed in Gale Groups Book Review Index. Parameters is also available through ProQuest and UMI. Subscriptions: organizations, may receive a gratis subscription. For eligibility requirements, visit the website listed above. Address Changes: Parameters Reprint Requests: For permission to reprint articles, contact the Parameters prepared to provide the articles title, authors name, publication date, intended use, quantity, and means of distribution. Commentaries and Replies: Parameters taries can be published. For those that are, the author of the article will be invited to provide a reply. For additional information, visit the website listed above. application of landpower. thinkers and complex problem solvers in the global application of landpower. Concurrently, it is our duty to the Army to also act as a think factory for commanders and civilian leaders at the strategic level worldwide and routinely engage in discourse and debate on ground forces role in achieving national security objectives. policy debate and bridge the gap between military and academia. leaders and supports the strategic needs of the Army by educating senior military and civilian leaders on landpower at the operational and strategic levels, developing expert knowledge and solutions for the operating and generating force, and conducting research activities, strategic exercises, and strategic communication. provides subject matter expertise, technical review, and writing expertise to agencies that develop stability operations concepts and doctrines. leaders by providing a strong foundation of wisdom grounded in mastery of the profession of arms, and by serving as a crucible for educating future leaders in expertise in war, strategy, operations, national security, resource management, and responsible command. conserves, and exhibits historical materials for use audience, and honor soldierspast and present.

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Contemporary Strategy & Landpower FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VISIT US AT http://www.carlisle.army.mil/The Quarterly The US Army War College Exploring Wars Character & NatureEmile Simpson Learning from Military TransformationsPat Proctor Damon V. ColettaRegional ChallengesTommy Ross Alexander Lanoszka Seth Cantey and Ricardo CorreaArmy ExpansibilityRose P. Keravouri Eric P. Shwedo VOL. 47 NO. 4 WINTER 2017 PARAMETERS (USPS 413530) US Army War College ATTN: Parameters47 Ashburn Drive Carlisle, PA 17013-5010 Periodicals Postage Paid VOL. 47 NO. 4 WINTER 2017