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Increasing socio-ecological resiliency to climate change in coastal communities

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Title:
Increasing socio-ecological resiliency to climate change in coastal communities
Creator:
Li, Mengyi ( author )
Language:
English
Physical Description:
1 online resource (86 pages) : illustrations ;

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Subjects / Keywords:
Architecture master's research project, M.S.A.S
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government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent) ( marcgt )
bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Abstract:
Densely populated, low-lying coastal regions are globally under threats, requiring coastal administrators to develop new measures to deal with climate-related threats, such as land subsidence, sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge caused inundation. Traditional engineering approaches optimizing for human safety are often negligence with social and ecological services and are neither sustainable nor resilient (Slobbe. 2013). With the impact of climate change growing, densely populated coastal areas need more resilience solutions that are robust, sustainable, adaptable, multifunctional and yet economically feasible. There is a need to come up with coastal protection planning that are adapted to gradual climate changes, while considering ecological values and socioeconomic functions. The purpose of this research is learning from two case studies in the USA (Lower Manhattan, Miami-Dade County) and one in Sanya, Hainan province -a China coastal city, and then summarize those experiences to prepare for the climate-related threat.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references.
General Note:
Includes vita.
General Note:
Sustainable Development Practice (MDP) Program final field practicum report
Statement of Responsibility:
by Mengyi Li.

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University of Florida
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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
035646119 ( ALEPH )
Classification:
LD1780.1 2017 ( lcc )

UFDC Membership

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University of Florida Theses & Dissertations

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1 INCREASING SOCIO ECOLOGICAL RESILIEN CY TO CLI MATE CHANGE IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES By MENGYI LI A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ARCHITECTURAL STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2017

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2 2017 Mengyi Li

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3 T o my family, friends and colleagues

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4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my gratitude to all the staff and faculty at University of Florida who have taught and help ed me in the Sustainable Design program. Specifically, I would like to thank Professor William L. Tilson who se rve d as Committee Chair and Dr. Robert J. Ries Committee Member I felt extremely fortunate to be assisted by such intellectual professionals, they passionately provi de me with valuable suggestion. Additionally, thank to Michael Kung who endlessly responded to students' questions and offered necessary technical information for the research. I t hank Dr. Ruth Steiner P ro fessor Bradley Walters as well as all my classmates who made such a memorable trip to Singapore and the Netherlands Finally, to my friends and family who supported and encouraged me wherever they are.

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................ ................................ ................................ 4 LIST OF TABLES ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 7 LIST OF FIGURES ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 8 ABSTRACT ................................ ................................ ................................ ........................ 9 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 10 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................ ................................ ....................... 13 Coastal Cities Affected by Climate Change ................................ ................................ ..... 13 Ecological Adaption to Climate Change ................................ ................................ ........... 17 Societal Adaption to Climate Change ................................ ................................ ............... 18 3 METHODOLOGY ................................ ................................ ................................ 21 4 CASE STUDY ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 26 Lower Manhattan New York,USA ................................ ................................ ........ 26 Background ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 26 Identify Climate Changes ................................ ................................ ............... 27 Vulnerability Assessments for Lower Manhattan ................................ ........... 29 Motivation ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 30 Resilience measures ................................ ................................ ........................ 30 Analysis ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 34 Miami Dade County ,F lor ida,US A ................................ ................................ ............ 36 Background ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 36 Identify Climate Changes ................................ ................................ ................. 36

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6 Motivation ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 44 Resilience measures ................................ ................................ .......................... 47 Analysis ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 51 Sanya ,Hainan ,PRC ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 52 Background ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 52 Identify Climate Changes ................................ ................................ ................. 53 Vulnerability assessment for Sanya ................................ ................................ .. 55 Motivation ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 58 On going action ................................ ................................ ................................ 61 5 SUMMAR Y AND CONCLUSION ................................ ................................ ......... 64 APPENDIX ................................ ................................ ................................ ....................... 73 LIST OF REFERENCES ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 74 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ................................ ................................ .......................... 83

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7 L IST OF TABLES Table pages Table1.Risk assessment of coastal provinces in 20161 5 T able 2: Basis data Comparison of three coastal cities .22 Table 3 : NPCC 2013 chronic hazards projections .. ..28 Table 4 : Buildings in the floodplain ..........34 Table 5 .1 :1 foot sea level rise in Miami Dade County 42 Table 5.2 :2 f ee t sea level rise in Miami Dade County 43 Table 5.3 :3 f ee t sea level rise in Miami Dade County 44 Table 6 : Lands acquired during the report period Jan 21, 2015 Jan 7, 2016. .. 48 Table 7 : Affected population and economic loos due to extrem e weather 55 Table 8 : E stimation of sand beach loss in Sanya Bay due to SLR. ... ... ... 56 Table 9 : Mangrove reduction in Sanya PRC..... .. 58 Table 10 : Waterfront parks project61 Table 11: The summary of r esiliency measure in coastal communities 66

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8 LIST OF FIGURES Figure pages Figure1. Sea level trend from 1980 to 2016 ... .14 Figure 2: Temperatures for Miami, FL between 1948 and 2015 .....38 Figure 3: Precipitation for Miami, FL between 1948 and 2015 ... ............ 39 Figure 4. Mean sea level trend at Miami Beach, Florida 40 Figure 5: The percentage of the area inundated for increments of sea level rise in meters; the percentages of the population affected by various increases in sea level; the cumulative and incremental percentages of property value a ffected b y inundation for Miami Dade C ounty 40 Figure 6: Average temperatures of Sanya, Hainan province ... 54 Figure 7: Sea level trends for Sanya, Hainan province in2015 and 2016 55 Figure 8: Average prec ipitation for Sanya, Hainan province ... ....... 55

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9 Abstract of M aster 's Research P roject Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master Science in Architectural Studies INCREASING SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCY TO CLI MATE CHANGE IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES By M engyi L i A ugust 2017 Chair: William L. Tilson Co chair: Robert J. Ries Major: A rch itecture Densely populated, Low lying coastal regions are globally under threats requiring coastal administrators to develop new measures to deal with climate relate d threats such as land subsid ence, sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge caused inundation Traditional engineering approaches optimizin g for human safety are often negligence with social and ecological ser vices and are neither sustainable nor resilient (S lobbe 2013) With the impact of climate change growing, densely populated coastal areas need more resilience solutions that are robust, sustainable, adaptable, multifunctional and yet economically feasible. There is a need to come up with coastal protection planning that are adapt ed to gradual climate changes, while consider ing ecological values and socioeconomi c functions. The purpose of this research is learning from two case stud ies in the USA (L ow er Manhattan, M iami D ade C ounty ) and one in Sanya, Hainan province a China coastal city and then summarize those experiences to prepare for the climate related threat

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10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION M any of the observed climate changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. T he atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhous e gases have increased (IPCC 2013) con sequently, m ost countries are exposed to climate related risk Climate change is projected to increase hurricane intensity as well as the rate of SLR (Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009 ; IPC C 2014 ). Since 1900, the global rate of SLR has averaged 0.04 to 0.06 feet per decade (Church et al. 2013 ), and surge storm whi ch is likely to be exacerbated by SLR W aterfront cities with low lying areas are especially vulnerable to SLR and storm surge that climate change was expected to bring The current and future implications of recurrent flooding and rising sea level are salient concerns for coastal zone communities because flooding and inundation events may become more frequent and intense (Nicholls 2004; CCSP 2009). T he dominant impacts of a rise in sea level are the loss of land due to flooding and erosion, which threaten the human built environment, as nearly 20% of the world's population lives within 30km of the sea, and approximately 40 % live within 100 km of the coast ( Shiuen et al., 2 005 ) A s coastal population growth and its demand for housing and city service s increase, the problem maybe more severe in the future; increased inundation areas during storm surges and rainstorms, which makes public resources and infrastructure in low lying areas at risk(IPCC, 2013), it also responsible for huge economic losses, for instance, the deadliest and costliest storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season re sulted in exceeding $50 billion

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11 ( NOAA 2013) ; Additionally, the intrusion of saltwater into aquifers, estuaries, and wetlands which shrun k ecosystem service u rbanization has cost the region 85 percent of its coastal wetlands, further reducing the natural capacity of the landscape to buffer developed areas from the impact of storms. All these are disrupting the economic and environmental fabric of coastal communities. We used to build higher dikes or sea wall to defend coastline s from flooding to prevent land loss, protect assets and human safety. F ail ing to pr ovide for the natural growth, we need to remain flexible in adapting to climate change in the long term, until we find a resilien t way to live with wat er instead of fighting with it. T his makes it possible to take social and environmental value into account while we respond to the emergent climate risk. Therefore, we need to increas e resiliency and turn climate related risk into economic stimulus, providing high livability and sustainable c oastal communities This study examines two case studies in the United States ( L ow er Manhattan and Miami Dade County ) First, it will i dentify c limate c hanges and their climate impact on these coastal regions ; S econ d ly the number of affected land value s along the coastline will be used to make a vulnerability assessment and thirdly, this research will review the local development plans, which are important to assess how development context could modulate climate risks. L astly it will identify climate resilience measure s h ow they have improved urban and ecosystem vulnerability in coastal area and which measures may be extracted and applied to S anya a coastal city in the island province of H ainan China

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12 The purpose of this research is to identify whether coastal region s in C hina could adapt those experiences from the U nites States to prepare for the climate related threat T he S outheast C hina coast faces to the Bohai S ea, Yellow S ea, East China S ea and South China S ea 1 According to monitoring data from tide gauge stations, the sea level ascent rate has been rising at the rate of 2.6mm/a along the China coast in the past 30 years, which is higher than the global average(NOAA,2011) and such trend is going to continue. Hainan as the sou thernmost island surrounded by South China S ea is one of the highest developing provinces, which is significantly affected by SLR especially when extreme weather occurs A nd the sea level is expected to rise by 85 132mm over the next 30 years ( Marine Forecasts,2012 ). I n 2015 the Ministry of H ousing approved the "Double Repair" construction development in Sanya S anya was chosen as the first experiment al pilot city from now could be a good template of coastal region ecologic repair and urban redevelopment for further study. The n ext chapter of this thesis reviews the background and the implication s of coastal resiliency and current policies that support for coast al repair C hapter 3 outlines the research methods employed for data collection and an a lysis Chapter 4 presents two case studies in the USA and one in China Finally, a conclusion concerning the applicability of the resiliency measures they have taken to different coastal communities are presented 1 70 percent megacities and medium size cities located in coastal area, which account for 13 percent of total national terri torial area, having 40 percent of the population and creating 60 percent of GNP(NOAA,2011)

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13 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW Coastal Cities Affected by Climate C hange Global climate change is expected to cause SLR. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 2001 ) it is very likely that global warming will significantly contribute to future SLR through the thermal expansion of sea water and the widespread loss of land ice (S hi uen et al., 2005). As stated in C hina Sea Level R eport 2016, sea level has been rising at the rate of 3.2mm per year from 1980 to 2016 in coastal region s which is higher than the average global rate. T he 2016 sea level was project ed to be 82mm above the annual average sea level which is arriving to the highest le vel from 1980's. ( Figure 1 ) E ach of C hina's sea zon e has an obvious increase in sea level Compare to the sea level in 2015 the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea are rose 24mm, 28mm, 52mm and 48mm respectively in 2016 (State Oceanic Administration,2016). Figure 1 S ea level trend from 1980 to 2016 (State Oceanic Administration,2016)

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14 The rise of the sea level exacerbates the extent of storm surge, flooding coastal erosion and seawater intrusion in China's coastal areas The impacts of climate related and other natural disasters cause direct financial loss es of about 72 0 million US dollars ( 5040 million RMB) and 60 people killed in 2016 (Table1) A mong various types of climate related risks, storm surge contributes the most significant economic losses, accounting for 92% of the total direct economic losses, coastal erosion ranked second, and all deaths caused by waves (Oceanic Disaster Report 2016). China account ed for five of the top 20 coastal cities in terms of a verage annual economic losses ( AAL ) in percentage of GDP for 20 05, and Stephane and his colleague s assume that this situation will continue and Guangzhou remains the most vulnerable city with AAL exceeding US$1 2 billion in 2050 (Stephane et al., 2013 ) P rovince Hazard D eath Economic loss (million US dollars) Gradual Extreme events O thers Liaoning SLR Increased precipitation Higher average temperature Strom surge, Sea ice, Erosion 0 6.42 Hebei Strom surge 0 133.57 Tianjin Strom surge 0 11.43 Shandong Strom surge, Erosion 0 34.15 Jiangsu Strom surge, W aves Sea ice 0 5.28 Zhejiang Strom surge, W aves 17 34.58 Fujian Strom surge, W aves 23 231.59

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15 Guangdong Strom surge, W aves E rosion 4 137.58 Guangxi Strom surge 0 38.42 Hainan Strom surge, W aves E rosion 16 81.28 Total 60 720 Table1.Risk assessment of coastal provinces in 2016 (State Oceanic Administration,2016) Modern society has become more sensitive to the economic and social damage caused by climate risk due to the fact that the coastal infrastructure has been planned more complicated and populations have become larger and more condensed (K im et al., 2015). In 2016, the fourteenth typhoon Meranti ha d not yet subsided, when the sixteenth typhoon Malakas came and headed straight to the east coast of the Chinese mainland. China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters to triggered a level III 2 emergency to facing with Malakas. I ntensive storm surge a ffected five coastal provinces Fujian is one of the significant affected coastal province s that suffered serious infrastructure damage and flooded neighborhoods, Malakas caus ed 3.81km of seawall destruction and destroy ed 17.43km of roadways. Malakas 's surge also affected maritime transportation, disrupting 4361 aquaculture facilities, 222 ships and 6 ferries and caused economic loss 108 million US dollars (Oceanic Disaster Report 2016). I ntensive risks make coastal development more challenging T hese challenges may include: buildings destroy ed in inundated areas; damage to infrastructure services, such as utilities, 2 C hina has four level emergency response: level.

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16 telecommunication, transportation and sanitation; and degradation of natural resources that support coastal livelihoods and provide protection. W orldwide climate related risk happen s in the U.S. as well. During and after Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast o n October 29, 2012, flooded an area that included approximately 88,700 buildings, nearly 30% of the city's electric generating capacity was temporarily lost. Five major electric tr ansmission substations in the city inundated and closed Parts of the natural gas distribution network were flooded And four of six steam plants in the city were knocked out of service (Planyc, 2013) Storm waters flooded tunnel entrances and ventilation structures, as well as affecting maritime transportation, damaging landings and docks and inundating facilities on land. Those citywide system disruptions make it difficult for healthcare staff to travel to their workplace s when emergencies occurs (Planyc 2013). The inc reasing challenging due to climate change has a tremendous impact not only on the people and infrastructure but a lso on agricultural land use and marine systems From the agricultural point of view, the areas mostly affected by coastal inund ation are aquaculture facilities rice fields, and mix ed cultivated land A strong scientific consensus that s ubstantial intertidal habitat loss due to climate change is projected to begin to occur by 2100 with approximately 18%,29%, and 39% losses at Willapa, Humboldt, and northern San Franc isco Bays respectively, and 70% and 57% losses at Southern San Francisco Bay and Delaware Bay respectively. SLR may reduce the spatial extent of species habitat by exce eding the accumulation rates of coral reefs and marshes ( C hri stopher et al., 2006 ). T he t hreat of climat e change requires communities worldwide to redouble their efforts and increasing resiliency.

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17 Ecological A dapt ion to Climate C hange In order to optimize human safety and property protection we normally build hard coastal defensive structures to fight against water. We primarily pay attention to the area to be protected. However, these hard' coastal defense engineering strategies like storm surge barriers and dams are still not reliable enough because the barrier blocks all the in and out sediment transport, and the outer delta will increase al ong with the sea level, but the basin behind the barrier will not because there is no sediment transport (S lobbe et al. 2012). This sediment gap shows that it will be impossible to take out the barrier at the end of its life cycle (S lobbe et al., 2012). These strategies failed to respect the ecosystem s Farber (1987) and Costanza et al. (2006) mention several instanc es where human intervention such as the construction of levees for flood protection and navigation that ha ve led to the increased vulnerability of the Louisiana coast. Marine habitats located along the intertidal zone out to the continental shelf break are predicted to offer over 14 trillion US dollars' worth of ecosystem goods and services every year ( C hri stopher et al., 2006 ). However, the scientific consensus is that thi s intertidal habitat area will be decrease by 20 % to 70% over the f o llowing 10 decades in the ecologically important North American bays, where the hilly contour and the human made structures prevent the inland reduction of mud flats and sandy beaches ( C hri stopher et al., 2006 ). Ignoring ecosystem functions may exacerbate the vul nerability of coastal region to climate change. Hurricanes, typhoons, and their related impacts affect societies throughout the world. They do so both directly through acute damage on human settlement, often with major loss of life, and

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18 indirectly through their impact on coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs, seagrass beds, and mangroves that support local societies and economies (Pielke et al.2003 ) D a mage after H urr icane K a trina in New Orleans in the United States has highlighted the importance of addressing ecosystem service in management decisions involving coastal settlement and infrastructure policies, such as the flooding protection that wetlands provide (Costanza et al. 2006). In 2002, the Sungei Buloh coastal we tland in Singapore joined 30 other sites as part of the East Asian Australasian Shorebird Site Network for addressing the well being of the wetland habitat and its wildlife It is time to take into account ecological function facing climate change and deve lop more resilient coastal protection infrastructures. Whereas t he Netherlands would once have responded to flooding by building higher d ikes, in the late 1990s they realized that flood risks were only going to intensify with climate change. B eginning in 2015 national pro gram in the Netherlands called Room for the River that mov ed dozens of dikes back to make room for swelling rivers. T he measures implemented to increase safety will also restore marshy riverine landscapes to deliver biodiversity, aesth etic and recr eational values, and the extra room the rivers will need in the coming decades to cope with higher discharges due to the projected climate changes, will remain permanently available. S ocietal A daption to Climate C hange In the research of global costal population analysis by Small and Nicholls, they found that both population and land area are in greater abundance closer to the coast, t he average population

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19 density of the near coastal zone is nearly three times higher than the average globa l population density of 44 people per square kilometer within 100 km of coastline The most densely population near coastal areas are in Europe and Asia (Small et al. 2003). Asia had the largest population residing in the flood zone about 30% (137 million ) of Asia's LECZ (the low elevation coastal zone) population live d in the 100 year flood plain in the baseline year 2000, which occupies 73% of the total global flood zone population (N eum ann et al., 2015) Within Asian and Eastern Asia 3 had the highest pe rcentage of population in the LECZ and had the highest LECZ population density worldwide in the year 2000 China as the largest population in the LECZ in the year 2000: 11.3% of its total population and 23 % of the global LECZ population C hina is and witness ing an i ncreasing trend in LECZ population that is expected to grow to reach 16.7% of their total number of peop l e in the LECZ (N eum ann et al., 2015) .I t is extremely important to minimize the impact and be adaptable to changing climate conditions on coastal communities in C hina more than any other nation. In Europe, 28 million people (account for 56% of the LECZ population ) lived within the 100 year flood zone in the year 2000. This affected population could increase by an amount of 4.2 million by 2060 and reach a population of 32.4 million (N eum ann et al., 2015). Nearly 50 million people reside in coastal areas and barrier islands over the last 40 years in the United States which has grown by 46% and is expected to continue rising at the same, or even 3 Eastern Asia is including China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Macao Special Administrative Region, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, Japan (N eum ann et al., 2015).

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20 above this rate (NOAA 2009). This population is exposed to more serious climate related risks and may get involve in increasingly severe issues, such as threat en human safety, damage to the urban infrastructure and cause economic losses. Since the coastal zones tend to offer much higher property values and higher socioeconomic growth rates than the non coastal areas, more effective emergency recovery strategies need to be considered within the background of the social function in coastal a reas as the population grows C ombining ecological, recreational and economic functions with flood control, result in coastal development that is less affected by climat ic condition. O ne example at the seaside resort of Scheveninge which is a popular touri st destination on the coast in the Netherlands T he project took SLR into account due to climate change, and chosen combined a multi functional space covered by a hard seawall structure and concealed beneath a pedestrian and bicycle accessible open space Japan is one of the eastern Asia counties that with high population density. J apan developed a super levee project that are constructed in conjunction with urban development or redevelopment, that incorporate s residential and commercial development into th e levee design which has become an innovative way of thinki n g about urban flood protection.

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21 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY This research analys es one region in C hina and two in low lying coastal regionals in the US. T he goal is to identify the ecological and socio economic resilience measures from the case studies that limit the effect of extreme weather while enabling regions to bounce back quickly when those impacts cannot avoid. This study will use methodology that in troduce each case study with their climate changes, coastal vulnerabilities, motivations and resiliency measures. Sanya is located in southern of Hainan I sland surrounded by the South China Sea Sanya is in a similar situation with other coastal cities that are affected by sea level rise and extreme weather events. In 2016, the Ministry of Urban and H ousing issued the "Double Repair" comprehensive plan and assign Sanya as the first city to retrofit urban devel opment and restore natural system s The primary land use in Sanya is residential. M a jor projects planned are the Route Island High Speed Rail, airport and five star hotel. T he l ower east side of S ou thern Manhattan that has a greater densely population than the New York citywide average with housing and commercial development New York is under threated from SLR and storm surge. Generally, the worst issue in the lower east side is that the buildings and infrastructures were inundated because were built on glacial out plains and post glacial deposits along eastern edge of Lower Manhattan in a 100 year floodplain Although, s horelines can be characterized as hardened s heltered b ay p lains that have been reinforced with a bulkhead

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22 people just live and work near by the coastline, which is still highly vulnerable to storm surge and SLR. T he design challenge is make a livable community that residents could enjoy the water view without waves attack and mitigate the flooding issue N ew York has developed socioeconomic resilient measures from to protect building and infrastructures in a creative way without reducing amenities, and therefore increasing economic opportunities. T he most vulnerable area in Miami are conservation land s that consists of mangrove, and herbaceous coastal saline and freshwater wetlands, T hese areas are reduc ing due to climate changes and other human induced changes. Sanya also is an international coastal tourism destination that maybe ha ve similar issue as Miami such as eroding beach sands conservation land reduction, and integrat ing ecologic al benefit into coastal planning S anya ha s much higher population and land area in the 100 year floodplain than N ew York however, they has the lowest population density of 100 year floodplain and Miami while new York take the highest population density (table 2).

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23 T able 2: Basis data Comparison of three coastal cities Identify Climate Changes Climate change in each region is investigated to assess whether climate and disaster risks can have an impact on coastal systems o ne of the key abilit ies is to associate specific climate changes with timelines. For instance, analy ze the trend of chronic h azards and extreme weather events in the pas t and near future such as higher temperatures, higher intensity rain fall and sea level rise, as well as acute impacts like coastal flooding and storm surges, and waves This step can inform the designer of the pro bable magnitude and ex pand of climate chan ges influence over a general future time frame. Vulnerability Assessments After finding out the major climate risks, the n ext step is t o analy ze vulnerability in conjunction with climate changes figure out how those climate changes could affect coastal development and determine what is most likely to be impacted by sea level rise and other extreme

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24 events that climate changes is expected to bring The impacts of climate related and other natural disasters make development more challenging. For coastal communities, these may destroy infrastructure services, such as water and sanitation; damage to buildings and degrad e of natural resources that support coastal livelihoods and provide protection. Motivation It is necessary to understand the de velopment context which can modulat e risks. Governme nt must be the critical motivator when facing worldwide climate related risks and other natural disasters U nder the direction of government policies, plans and funding would accelerate recover y and rebuild ing coastal communities would accelerate In addition, private sector, and non profit and community organizations are important resiliency initiative s that will assist in shaping and implementing each community plan. Resilience M easures After assessing the vulnerability and develop ment context, it is important to design tailored climate and disaster resilience measures for local conditions A variety of pro fessionals are required to work together to a ddress these risks and help protect and ensure sustainab le com munities For example e ngineers can design flood protection structures to tolerate higher storm surges or SLR in addition to earthquakes i n areas considered of high risk; and p lanners can develop zoning regulations to reduce or p revent infrastructure development in the most vulnerable coastal areas. L and scape architects and architecture designer s can put forward protective concept s

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25 that mitigat e climate related risks in real Training for the public can also be achieved in by joining community workshops or volunteer group s to support and maintain the project

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26 CHAPTER 4 CASE STUD IES L ower Manhattan In 2012, New York was devastated by H urricanes Sandy which was a unique storm in recorded weather history Much of the infrastructure was disabled, the economic heart of the Financial District stopped for a week, homes were flooded, and people were trapped in their apartments. Many residents are still struggling with the aftermath. Sandy's mag nitude and its threat from climate change taught New York that they need more durable long term resiliency plan to provide important protection. Background The low lying topography of lower Manhattan is home to approximately 220,000 people and is the core of an economy with a $500 billion annual GDP that influences economic activity throughout the world This area also contains 35,000 affordable housing units, many of which have been hard hit by Sandy. Over 95,000 low income, elderly, and d isabled residents live there, predominantly along the East River. More than 52 million visitors annually come to New York City.

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27 Climate Changes The New York C ity panel on climate change (NPCC) 4 conducted a comprehensive analysis of New York City's p ossible vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events, which included chronic hazards like higher temperatures, higher intensity rain, and sea level rise. According to the NPCC 2013 Climate Projections, by the middle of the century, sea levels could grow more than 2.5 feet (Table 2), more so if the polar ice sheets melt at a faster rate than previously predicted (P lan yc,2013). A comparison of the 2013 PWM s 2020s and 2050s 100 year floodplain s can be found in the A p pendix A 1. T he NPCC also predicts heats waves could more than triple in frequency and it is very likely that New York will experience heavier storms since rain fall is expected to increase by 4 to 13 percent by midcentur y F uture projections identify four areas of climate risk: st orm level surges, sea level rise, higher tempera tures, and escalating peak precipitation (Ben. 2017) S tra tegies include limit ing exposures to floo dwa ters, making buildings more resilient, and protect ing vital infrastructure more effectively (NYC.2013) 4 !"##$%&'(%)*%*+,-.%/0(,+12'%1+.+(-%.)% 1,(2.(%2%3)45%)*%6(24+'7%16+02.(%2'4%-)1+26%-1+('.+-.-%182,7(4%9+.8%4(:(6);+'7% 6)126%16+02.(%;,)<(1.+)'% )%2'265=(%*>.>,(%6)126%:>6'(,23+6+.+((NYC.2013) ?

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28 Table 3 : NPCC 2013 chronic hazards projections

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29 Vulnerability Assessments for L ower Manhattan G enerally, L ower Manhattan can be characterized as residential areas with local retail stores. T he number of buildings in the area inundated by Sandy was substantial. In total, over 950 residential buildings (containing 46 million square feet of space and more than 40,000 units) and 96% over 700 commercial and non residential buildings (containing 85 m illion square feet of space) were affected by floodwaters. Of this total, 24 percent of the impacted floor area was in the neighborhoods of the East Side, 28 percent in the neighborhoods of the West Side, and 48 percent in Lower Manhattan. Perhaps most imp ortantly, 58 percent of all impacted residential units were in the neighborhoods of the East Side. Throughout L ower Manhattan, the number of at risk buildings could rise to approximately 2,300 buildings by the 2020s (a 43% rise over the PWMs 5 ) and to over 2,700 buildings by the 2050s (a further 18 % increase over 2020). Location and level of building damage can be found in Appendix A 2 5 PWMs : Preliminary Work Maps which was released in June 2013 by FEMA

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30 Table 4 : Buildings in the floodplain M otivation The F ederal government department is expected to lead resiliency efforts The Mayor's Office of Recovery & Resiliency (ORR) plan s develops track s and coordinates of all the recovery and resiliency efforts across all the city agencies, and it will provide a coordinated voice for the city's resiliency efforts. In 2013, the Department of City Planning (DCP) proposed the Flood Resilience Zoning Text Amendment. This amendment changes the height, floor area, and the permitted obstruction regulations in order to ensure that the neighborhoods in the floodplain are kept vibran t (NYC Planning, 2013). The Department of Housing Preservation and Development (HPB) is responsible for the enforcement of the State and City laws and codes that are related to housing quality and safety, and is also in charge of ensuring compliance with t he quality standards for that program.

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31 It is clear that the city needs extensive help from the federal government in order to fund the rebuilding of homes and communities. The federal government's Community Development Block Grants Disaster Relief (CD BG DR) is allocated as a means to help affected areas recover from presidentially declared disasters. It is administered by the U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Mayor's Office of Housing Recovery Operations (HRO), provided financial and other types of assistance to the owners of residential properties that were destroyed or that were substantially damaged during Hurricane Sandy, which included approximately 30 residential buildings, encompassing approximately 400 housing units in Lower M anhattan. The Sandy Funding Tracker database improves the transparency of the public disclosure of where Sandy related funds go. After Hurricane Sandy passed, an innovative design competition, Rebuild by Design is launched by President Obama's Hurrican e Sandy Rebuilding Task Force, which combine innovation and global expertise with the community assist that was needed in order to come up with applicable measures to the region's most complex needs (Rebuild by Design. 2013). This sector is also in partner ship with several community organizations, non profit organizations and businesses in order to develop and implement coastal protection measures. The Rebuild by Design Competition changed the way that the federal government responded to disasters M any other competitions were inspired by the Rebuild by Design competition model and collaborative approach.

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32 In 2014, President Obama launched the National Disast er Resilience Competition which distributed $1 billion to 13 cities and states countrywide in order to fund the resilience building projects. Internationally, The Rockefeller Foundation, cooperates with the United States Agency for International Developme nt and The Swedish International Development Agency developed the Global Partnership for Resilience (Rebuild by Design. 2013). Resilience measures The BIG U project 6 proposal f ocus e s on lower east side of Manhattan since those regions are considered highly vulnerable to storm surges and has the highest impacted residential units. D esign scope is divided into three compartment s hardest hit by Hurricane Sandy: C1, East River Park; C2, T wo B ridges ; and C3, B attery to B rooklyn B ridge In C2, which encompasses a low lying area between the Brooklyn and Manhattan bridges, a bout half of the area is the Governor Alfred E Smith Houses Campus, a public housing complex built by the New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) and oth er affordable housing built by not for profit organizations. The other half of the area is an extension of the tenement row houses of Chinatown (Rebuild by Design.2016). This densely populated community is severely lacking the range of programs, such as co mmunity centers, swimming pools, sports fields and other recreational programs for youth, senior centers, nearby pharmacies and grocery stores for the elderly population. 6 The BIG U project is one of the six winners in the Rebuild by Design competition that held by Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to restore parts of the U.S. that were hit by Hurricane Sandy. T he BIG U has been granted $335 million from federal funds as a part of the project to upgrade Lower Manhattan's storm defenses, and New York City has committed CDBG DR fundin g for implementation of first phase. %

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33 Two options were developed T he first one is to attach the deployable walls to the underside of the FDR Drive, ready to flip down to prepare for flood events. When not in use, these panel s are decorated by neighborhood artists, creat ing an inviting ceiling above the East River Esplanade. At night, they provide lighting and security in da rk spaces (see Appendix A3). In certain segments o f C 2 residents were concerned that the walls could caus e a loss of water views and ligh t T hus, a lternative one is to insert a 4 f oo t high B ig Bench underneath the elevated FDR and during storm surge closed the opening bench at the adjacent street intersections with deployable gates (see A ppendix A 4 ) For the long term resilient community planning, t he BIG team 7 design ed a landscaped berm integrated into the South and West margins of the Smith Houses Campus. The b erm replaces underused lawn and surface parking areas with community accessible open space and a robustly planted landscape that filters exhaust from the adjacen t FDR 8 The residential apartment s in the path of the b erm are integrated into it, with reconfigured points of egress. G round floor residents of these apartment s could be relocated to a new building on the campus, while the parkin g, even insert stormwater retention tanks underneath the berm. Some recreational amenities such as a swimming pool are inserted into the inland side of the b erm, creating an immersive lush enter tainment experience, while supporting open landscape and social space above. This intervention meet s social and recreational need and maintains the connection between the 7 BIG referrers to Bjarke Ingels Group which is a group of architects, designers, builders, and thinkers operating within the fields of architecture, urbanism, interior design, landscape design, product design, research and development. 8 FDR referred to as the Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive, is a 9.44 mile (15.19 km) freeway standard parkway on the east side of the New York City borough of Manhattan

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34 neighborhood and the waterfront, while protecting against extreme weather events. Taking blackout s in emergenc ies risk s into consider ation a C og eneration plant ( Co Gen plant ) and a community micro grid could be built on the campus that would be increases energy efficiency and reduces emissions. A C o Gen Plant can also be placed in one of the evacuated ground floors, this function is combined with other community resilience functions, such as chargin g stations and health services (BIG.2012) From the landscape aspect, since tree canopy su ff ered tremendous loss from salt water inundation during Sandy. NYC HA replaced these trees with a diverse mix of salt tolerant species, both in groves in the interior of the community and lining the boulevards leading to the water. R ain gardens were created that can capture storm water as well as provide with social spaces for instance, lawns and s ports fields can detain water in storm events. Traditionally impervious surfaces that absorb heat and contribute to storm water runoff, therefore, convert roofs into extensive green roofs or blue roofs to absorb and detain storm water. Roadways and parking lots can be repaved with permeable paving. In segment C3 a "Reverse Aquarium" floating build ing program for the Maritime Museum and the New York Harbor Middle School is proposed A glass structure create s in water educational and cultural experiences its form is derived from the flood protection at the water facing ground floor.

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35 Analysis L ower Manhattan is a highly urbanized regional with high population density with nearly half of the land area man made land at a l ow elevation L ower Manhattan was a severely inundated flood plain during Sandy the flood issues more concentrated on real estate and human safety. In the design competition, Rebuild by Design, that launched by President Obama's Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force, the BIG Team's approach demonstrated a deep understanding of the region's economic, political social and ecologic environment BIG i ntegrated sustainable features into infrastructure and the built environment evacuated berm with vegetation so that i nteractions with nature fosters a conservation ethic among city residents while providing resiliency to future storms. Furthermore, BIG pro posed flood proofing buildings a void ing below grade basement s, elevating mechanical systems utilizing evacuated space on ground floors for amenities, parking and stormwater retention new commercial activity in certain repurposed ground floor spaces that would connect residents with the new jobs, which bring social and economic benefits. I n order to keep the total number of apartments equal, affordable housing w ould be added in a replacement building ; A n energy plant on campus would provide backup in emergency O ther recommendations include in creasing the area of pervious surfaces where they can effectively increase infiltration, apply ing native species bio swales, rain gardens, and street plantings that absorb and clean stormwater, mitigate the urban heat island effect reduce air pollution, store car bon, buffer noise, enhance recreational activities improve mental health, and provide green jobs.

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36 Miami Dade County Like most coastal areas, Florida's Miami Dade County is vulnerable to climate change. With the county's unique topography, sea level r ise will increase flooding causing the county and its infrastructure, people, and natural resources to be "squeezed." The county's major economic sectors, agriculture and tourism, will suffer greatly. Background Florida is the most vulnerable state to sea level rise in the United States, and Miami has the largest amount of exposed assets and the fourth largest population vulnerable to sea level rise in the world with 128,548 people inhabitant land below 3 feet above sea level which account for about 23% of total population(5.56million). T he geographical nature of the Miami Dade County generally accelerates the extent of the climate change impact : there are extensive length of inland waterways and low lying coastal wetlands in the southern region which abut against the Everglades National Park in Miami Dade County (Southeast Florida Climate Compact.2012). Climate Changes The first step to increasing the resiliency of the county's infrastructure is to understand how key climate variables are expected to change. For Miami Dade County, key climate risks include changing temperatures, precipitation, sea levels, groundwater hei ghts, and storm patterns (Miami Dade county. 2016).

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37 Temperatures National Weather Service records monthly temperatures for Miami in four cat e gories from 1948 to 2015. T he four warmest years (2011, 1990, 1994, 2009) in crimson, five lowest periods (19 66, 1968, 1958, 1962, 1963) in blue 1981 2010 in dark grey, and 2015 period in mint. It is witnesses to global warming (Figure 2) Figure 2 : Temperatures for Miami, FL between 1948 and 2015 (NOAA,2015) Precipitation T he National Weather Service records precipitation for Miami in four categories from 1948 to 2015 The five wettest year s (1959, 2012, 1968, 1966, 1994) in mint, five driest periods (1956, 1 951, 1975, 1955,1961) in brown, 1981 2010 normal underlid in dark grey and 2015 period in lite blue. T he intense precipitation occurs from May to October (Figure 3)

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38 Figure 3 : Precipitation for Miami, FL between 1948 and 2015 (NOAA,2015) SLR The plot at Miami B each shows the monthly mean sea level without the regular seasonal fluctuations due to coastal ocean temperatures, salinities, winds, atmospheric pressures, and ocean currents. The mean sea level trend is 2.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/ 0.43 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data f rom 1931 to 1981 which is equivalent to a change of 240 mm in 100 years (Figure 4)

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39 F igure 4 Mean sea level t rend at Miami Beach, Florida(NOAA. 2013) F looding According to a record of flooding frequency that rain induced events jumped by 33% over the past 16 years since 2006 and tide induce events even more worse from 2 events to 8 16 events form 1988 to 2013 (Southeast Florida Climate Compact.2015) Figure 5 : T he percentage of the area inundated for increments of sea level rise in feet ; the percentages of the population affected by various increases in sea level ; the cumulative and incremental percentages of property value affected by inundation for Miami Dade County (Miami Dade County.2016)

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40 The purple bars give the percentage affec ted area, population and property value for each increment of sea level rise as read on the right hand side axis (Figure 5). For instance, 4.92ft of sea level rise inundates an additional 20% of the land area, affects an additional 7% of the population and damages an additional 8% of property value of Miami Dade County. The red curves show the cumulative index and are read on the left hand side axis. For example, 4.92ft of sea level rise inundates nearly 60% of the land area, affects 15% of total population and about damages about 20% of property value of Miami Dade County. 13.13ft of sea level rise is enough to submerge all Miami Dade County's land. Vulnerability Assessments for Miami Dade County According to the report named Analysis of the Vulnerability of Southeast Florida to Sea Level Rise that the region of Southeast Florida is potentially vulnerable to sea level rises of 1, 2 and 3 f ee t, countywide map 1,2, as well as 3 feet SLR in the Miami Dade County (see Appendix B). A bun ch of SLR p rojection for the Southeast Florida is that the scenario for a 1 foot rise could take place between the years 2040 2070, the two feet scenario from 2060 2115 and the three feet scenario from 2075 2150 (Southeast Florida R egional C ompact. 2012). The vulnerability assessment for the Miami Dade County found out that a 12 percent (121,378 acres) of Miami Dade County's total land width s filled with conservation lands that are at risk of a 1 foot SLR scenario being the major land use type inundated ( T able 5 .1 ). 16% of the land under the risk of a 2 feet rise scenario, which is comprised of agricultural land s areas and conservation lands (Table 5.2 ). At the 3 feet scenario, affected lands of county are increase to 18%,

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41 including the Northwest Municipal Drinking Water Wellfield which is in the inland areas. (Table 5.3 ). Natural System R eduction Major areas of the land will be affected first in the natural systems (Southeast Florida regional compact. 2012). The conser vation of the land of the most potential inundation areas in Miami Dade County consists of buttonwood, mangrove, scrub mangrove, and herbaceous coastal saline and freshwater wetlands (Southeast F lo rida climate compact,2012) Although the values of these p roperties have little reflected in the taxable values of the properties, they are still notable for the critical habitat that they offer to the wildlife, and play an important role in the differing mix of attractions that fasten the local 's tourism and rea l econom ic development (The Nature Conservancy. 2017).

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42 Table 5 .1 :1 foot sea level rise in Miami Dade County

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43 T able 5.2 :2 foot sea level rise in Miami Dade County

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44 T able 5.3 :3 foot sea level rise in Miami Dade County Affected U rban L and V alue B esides the conservation lands, Miami Dade expects additional impacts to generation of electricity and usage of agricultural land. staring at the1 foot scenario that u rban infrastructure is under threat (Southeast Florida regional compact. 2012). Especiall y, some electrical generation facilities that are located at elevations below sea level, such as a part of the estate at the Homestead Air Reserve Base, the Turkey Point Nuclear Power Plant, and the Cutler Power Plant (Southeast Florida regional compact. 2 012). 71% of the power plants are vulnerable under the one foot

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45 scenario. This number increases to 82 % at the three feet scenario. T he secondary roads were inundated, While the railroads were not. W ith over 500 miles of roads that will be potentially inund ated at the three feet of sea level rise scenario (Southeast Florida regional compact. 2012). M otivation In 2009, Miami Dade County joined the four county Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact 9 which work collaboratively on mitigation and adaptation strategies such as joint policies to influence climate legislation and funding at state and federal levels, developing a Regional Climate Change Action Plan, and hosting annual summits to review progress and discuss strategies. I n 2013, the Boa rd of County Commissioners approved integrating climate change considerations into multiple elements of the Comprehensive Development Master Plan (CDMP) which require s county departments to take climate change into consideration during capital improvement projects and other decision making processes ( Alexis e t al 2016). Division of Environmental Resources Management (DERM) is involved in a number of efforts that have the potential to reduce the impacts of storm surge, improv e drainage, and reduce flooding, f or example, reseeding mangroves, preserving coastal wetlands, acquiring new conservation land through its Environmentally Endangered Lands Program, conducting erosion control and beach nourishment, and implementing other natural resource restorati on projec ts (Miami Dade County. 2014 ). 9 the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact which includes Miami Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe counties (Miami Dade County, Office of the Mayor)

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46 South Florida Water Management District is to operate s and maintain an extensive water management network of canals, levees, water storage areas, pump stations and other water control structures (Miami Dade County.2016). The Miami Dade County Office of Emergency Management led the Local Mitigation Strategy Working Group 10 created Miami Dade County Local Mitigation Strategy which contains a list of mitigation projects in relation to the climate hazard and vulnerability asses sment of Miami Dade County (Miami Dade County, 2014) A cademic institutions have influence to gather more experts a nd professionals to communicate in academic courses and conference s and organize workshops so that make further process in study. The Consortium for Hydro generated Urbanism (CHU) 11 at the University of Florida, is an interest group partnership with academic institutions, governmental agencies and the private sector, share s design and policy studies of adaptation, resiliency, environmen tal justice and asset preservation of waterway cities around the world Apart from academic research activity, restoration also need s public assistance The Land Acquisition Selection Committee (LASC) is made up of seven citizen volunteers who are appointed by the Board of County Commissioners. They conduct ed a public hearing to consider the County's recommendations and the public's comments on the proposals, and assist the County in implementing the v oters' mandate and providing a list of environmentally sensitive lands for 10 Local Mitigation Strategy Working Group which is made up of representatives from Miami Dade municipalities, County departments, state and federal agencies, schools, colleges and universities, hospitals, private for profit, and not for profit organization s. 11 More information at https://dcp.ufl.edu/architecture/graduate school/special programs/consortium for hydro generated urbanism/

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47 potential acquisition. Furthermore, c itizens can get involved by joining in Environmentally Endangered Lands Program Volunteer Workdays to be a v olunteer to help to restore n atural a reas in Miami Dade County Additionally, the public can r eport coral reef i ncidents to Southeast Florida Action Network (SEAFAN) that help improve protection and management of Southeast Florida coral reefs. Resilience measures Environmentally Endangered Lands (EEL) Program A previous vulnerability assessment of Miami Dade County, we found that Miami Dade County's natural environments are an i mportant first line of defense against climate change. In terms of appreciating and understanding that natural system provide us with critical coastal protection services (T he Natural Conservancy, 2014) the Board of County Commissioners passed Resolution R 47 15 January 2015, "to continue strategic implementation of Miami Dade County's Environmentally Endangered Lands (EEL) Program, consistent with Program objectives as approved by the voters, and to identify potential additional long term funding sources for the continued acquisition and management of EEL lands." ( Board of County Commis sioners.2015) Between January 21, 2015, and January 7, 2016, the EEL Program has successfully acquired and managed 249.78 acres environmentally endangered land at a total cost of $1,177,081( T able 6 ). These acquisitions were partially funded in General Obl igation Bonds ($1,090,081) and funding from the EEL Trust Fund ($87,000). Since the Program's inception from 1990 EEL along with its partners has successfully acquired and managed for a total of 2 3 5 00 acres containing 20,7 00 acres

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48 of en vironmentally endangered lands such as wetlands, rockridge pinelands and tropical hammocks, and additionally, manages 2,800 acres of park natural lands (Regulatory and Economic Resourcves.2015) Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands is one of the acquired pr eserved land by the Environmentally Endangered Lands Program, collaborate with Florida Communities Trust to protect the natural mangrove coast and provide protection against coastal erosion and storm surge. To enhance the ability of pr eserv ing this critical ecosystem, the 1996 Mangrove Trimming & Preservation Act limits the public and private property to removal and trim of mangroves ( Miami Dade County, 2014). Project Name Acreage Purchase Price South Dade Wetlands Preserve 246.31 $ 997 054 Goulds Pineland Preserve 3.47 $180,027 Total 249.78 $1,177,081 T able 6 : Lands acquired during the report period Jan 21, 2015 Jan 7, 2016. Miami Dade County Beach Erosion Control Miami Dade County beaches are famous as worldwide tourist destination, which bursts econom y of Miami Dade County. As sea levels rise they affect the beach profiles and erosion rates which causes economic and social impacts to the community. Beach erosion control can help slow these changes to th e County's beaches and provide hurricane surge p rotection. Miami Dade County Environmental Resources Management corporates with local, f ederal and s tate agencies to develop Miami Dade County Beach Erosion Control projects which improve and protect

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49 beaches from the effects of wave erosion ( Miami Dade County.2016) The recommendations for managing these hotspots include breakwater structures, groins, beach re nourishment, structural improvements and sand tightening (Miami Dade County.2010) Tens of mil lions of dollars have been and will continue to be invested in these programs in order to protect the shoreline and coastal infrastructure from the effects of sea level rise (Miami Dade County.2016). For instance, Miami Beach Truck Haul Nourishment Project that was completed by the end of November 2006 places a total of 110,000 cubic yards (30,000, 50,000, and 30,000 cubic yards. at 27th 44th, and 55th Streets, respectively) of beach quality sand truc ked in from inland quarries; Bal Harbour Groin F ield was in itiated occur in late 2008 called for the removal of the five existing rubble mound and timber groin structures, replacing them with a stepped series of 5 T head groins, which will improve the dura bility of the beach fill by compartme ntalizing it and slightly reducing wave energy. The Section 227 program 63rd Street Breakwater constructed of rows of concrete domed structures referred to as Reefballs 12 intended to break waves, reducing the force of w ave action thereby mitigating the movement o f sand from that area In its initial phase, implemented a 2,000 foot long submerged breakwater structure for the Miami Beach site. Miami Dade County has requested $7.5 million to provide the Federal share of the pending Alternative Sand Test Beach Project. 12 Reefballs are integrated in to articulated concrete mats to minimize settling into the sand and to simplify installation.

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50 Central and Southern Florida Project T he efficiency of moving water from urbanized regions to the ocean through a highly constrained canal system and water control structures is inadequate t he South Florida Water Management District has implemented an impoundment in the western area of Miami Dade County to reduce flooding in the more urbanized southern and eastern regions that are subject to significant flooding during major storm events, suc h as tropical storms and hurricanes, and to facilitate groundwater recharge which can help reduce salt water intrusion. Additionally, t he South Florida Water Management District has already installed two forward pumps in some of the most vulnerable areas n ear the Miami International Airport, funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Saltwater I ntrusion Monitoring Network Miami Dade County's potable water is dr awn from The Biscayne Aquifer. H owever, s altwater intrusion of the Biscayne Aquifer began when t he Everglades were drained to provide dry land for urban development and agriculture. (U.S. Geological Survey.2016). South Florida Water Management District is responsible to solve the issues of rising risk for flooding, and the region's drinking water quality and natural areas reduction that saltwater intrusion could potentially cause. Miami Dade County has developed an extensive aquifer monitoring network. The South Florida Water Management District regulates the withdrawals from the aquifer to minimize this

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51 risk by identifying potential "utilities at risk" 13 and these utilities are closely being monitored. Monitoring network allows the Water and Sewer Departmen t to quickly shift water sources between wellfields as conditions require. For example, if movement of the salt front is detected in the monitoring network, withdrawals can be shifted to western wellfields to reduce pressure on eastern wellfields and reduc e the risk of saltwater intrusion (Miami Dade County Water and Sewer Department.2016) The County also implement ed Everglades Restoration to increase the recharge of the aquifer and will help delay saltwater intrusion; reducing impervious surfaces, increas ing detention areas, or adjusting canal stages can similarly help protect the quality of the aquifer. Currently the Water and Sewer Department is focused on enhancing the existing monitoring and certain utilities are not expected to be impacted by saltwate r intrusion through 2040. Analysis Miami Dade County due to its low lying topography, porous substrate and extensive coastal development, it is one of the most vulnerable area s in the world to the impact of climate change ( Miami Dade County .2016). Miami ha s rich natural assets as well as critical urban infrastructures In terms of n atural system s Miami has sought to increase the height and width of beach and dune areas ; i mprove d dune restoration and vegetation management including breakwater struc tures, beach renourishment, structural improvements and sand tightening m ultiple erosion control 13 "utilities at risk" : utilities either did not have a western wellfield, an alternative source of water, or the ability to meet their needs through interconnection with other utilities.

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52 activities for the segment of shoreline extending maintain a viable beachfront, as well as recreational benefits T he major challenge for future nourishment i s to identify potential sand sources. If there are no viable domestic sources are available for Miami Dade, the Corps may have to seek authorization to pursue non domestic sources ; U nder the direction of the Board of County Commissioners, the EEL Program provide ecological benefits containing p rotect ed or restore d fringing mangrove forests ; and p rotect or restore sea grass beds which can trap sediment and reduce erosion r ates ; r estore wetlands in flood prone areas The ecological health of these environme nts also provides important social and economic benefits to our communities by preserving our natural heritage and green spaces for our families, and supporting the tourism economy. A key consideration affecting the EEL Program's long term success is the a bility to fund the perpetual management of EEL Preserves and to acquire the remaining land on the current Acquisition List. In the urban region s i ncrease d pump capacities and i ncr eas ed impoundment areas to temporarily store water during times of heav y rains is recommended The Water and Sewer Department use s a monitoring network to monitor and manage saltwater intrusion condition and shift immediately as need. In addition to flood control, they also apply water management to recharge the aquifer. Sanya T ropical climate, beaches, and rain forest has made Sanya a favorite tourist spot In recent years, the Sanya municipal government aims to establish an international tropical coastal tourist

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53 city with the motivation of various organizations and p ublic support R esidents and tourists could enjoy a livable environment c onside ring the economic, political and social environment in this area and the mitigat ion of climate risks. Background S anya lies at the southern tip of Hainan I sland that is surround ed by the S outh C hina S ea it is a gateway to the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean s Southeast Asia and Central A sia It is expected that Sanya will have a population of 500,000 by 2020 in its central developed areas, covering a total of 74.7 square kilometer s The number of o verseas visitors increase d significantly in 2016 and is expected to be up to 20 million by 2018 (South China MorningPost.2016). Elevation decreases from the north to the south, with a few mountains lo cated in north The south part is flat and facing the sea. B asically, soil in Sanya has high permeability, except th at near the estuari es, which are clay and less permeable Generally developing can be characterized as residential areas with local retail stores in the central developed area with mangrove conservation lands in the eastern Sanya. S a nya has the Hainan East High Speed Rail to Haikou and there are plans to develop the H ainan W est line to create an island loop This project will be comple ted by the end of 2017. To attract more international visitors, Sanya Phoenix International Airport increase s international flights thus tourists can directly fly to 15 countries I t is expected to add more new destinations and increase to 20 countries by the end of 2017 The city also plans to build a new airport to ease

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54 the congestion at the existing airport, while the cruise terminal at Phoenix Island will soon be able to handle the largest cruise ships in the world by 2020 (South China MorningPost.2016 ). Identify Climate Changes Temperature Temperature has had obvious increase s between 2009 and 2016 (Figure 6). Figure 6: Temperatures for S anya H ai nan province, between 2009 and 2016 (WorldWeather Online, 2016) SLR In Sanya SLR has seasonal changes, increasing from July unexpectedly and then reach the peak i n October and November (Figure 7) I t is mainly because sea level is impacted by northeast monsoon during that period, which bring s much seawater into the S outh C hina S ea. Compare d with th e mean sea level, SLR during the peak was 75mm in 2016 41mm higher than that in 2015. I t is expected to increase by 75 175mm in the next thirty years. Extreme weather events usually occur during seasonal peak SLR time, which will increase the hazard.

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55 Figure 7 : S ea level trends for Sanya, Hainan province in2015 and 2016 ( State Oceanic Administration, People's Republic of China ,2016) Precipitation Apart from the highest monthly precipitation in 2009 which was nearly 30 inch, rainfall was generally stable between 2010 and 2016, no more than 15 inches in peak month s ( F igure 8). Figure 8 : Precipitation for S anya H ai nan province, between 2009 and 2016 (WorldWeather Online, 2016) Vulnerability assessment for Sanya Human Safety and P roperty T he affected population between 2009 and 201 4 (Table 7 )

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56 Year Affected population Economic loss USD million 2009 100000 10 2010 73500 51 .84 2011 12450 4.51 2012 37450 53.30 2013 345575 149.75 2014 6270 10.27 Table 7 : Affected population and economic loss due to extrem e weather (Sponge City construction planning, C hina C ity Planning Departmen t, 2016). Shoreline Erosion Sanya Bay Existing beach Beach length (m) 16360 Acres 1198 SLR 200mm Inundation length 2.1 4.1 Erosion length 17.4 Total loss length 19.6 21.5 Loss acres 82.87 SLR 500mm Inundation length 5.6 10.2 Erosion length 43.6 Total loss length 49.2 53.8 Loss acres 210 Table 8 : Estimation of sand beach loss in Sanya Bay due to SLR. Erosion will accelerate with the c ontinued sea level rise. For instance, if sea level increases by 200mm, the total length of eroded beach includ ing inundat ion and erosion by waves will increase by 21.5m and los e increase to a predicted 8 3 acres (Table 8 ). The av erage erosion for western Sanya 's Yalong Bay was almost 1.0m pre year (Qiaohua.1997). Because of shoreline

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57 erosion in 2016, 32.35 acres were lo st with the damage up to 0.35 billion US dollars (China Marine Disaster Report.2016). Natural S ystem s Although mangrove ecosystem is of tremendous value for coastal communities and associated species, they are destroyed at an alarming rate. The p otential impact of climate changes, such as temperature, carbon emission, precipitation, storms surge, and sea level also threaten s the resilience of mangroves. T he i ncrease in hurricane intensity over the next century will lead to the decrease in the average height of mangroves (Ning et al. 2003) S ea level rise is expected to decrease the geographic distribution and specie s diversity of mangroves on small islands with micro tidal sediment limited environments (IPCC 1997). Human activit ies bring threats to mangroves F or example, Hainan I sland replac ed nearly 50 acres of mangrove forest with agricultural land or shrimp aquac ulture production over the last decade. Mangroves in Sanya decreased by 92% in the area in 1959 (Lirong.2011).

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58 Year Acres S any a Ri ver Y ulin R iver Qingmei H arbor T ielu H arbor Total 1987 602.94 429.96 227.34 696.84 1952.13 1999 210.04 121.08 192.74 427.49 963.17 2009 158.15 71.66 165.56 69.19 469.5 2015 93.9 18.29 155.68 42.01 308.88 Table 9 : M angrove reduction in Sanya. (Sanya Ecosystem restoration and urban retrofit comprehensive plan,2016) Motivation In 2013, China announced its ambitious Maritime Silk Road 14 which is a network of maritime routes that connect Asia, Europe and Africa by Chinese sea ports for diplomatic and economic purposes. Sanya, a coastal city in the southernmost China, surround by the South China Sea is a key maritime t ransportation hub associate d with the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Due to its important geographic location, Sanya is on the list of cities on the Maritime Silk Road Economic Belt. In 2015, Sanya's municipal government proposed to create an international tropical coastal tourist city with the Belt and Road 15 initiative F or instance promot ing coastal ports and 14 The Maritime Silk Road : officially the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route Economic Belt is a Chinese strategic initiative to increase investment and foster collaboration across the historic Silk Road. 15 The Belt and Road refers to the overland Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road.

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59 international hub airports construction, improv ing the opening up of tourism industry In 2015, Central Urban Work Conference highlighted six investment areas t o map out blueprints for urban development. T hese include make m ore efforts are made to enhance urban planning, design and construction level, promote ecological restoration and city repair, and thus make cities more livable. T he National People's Congress (NPC) issued t he 13th Five Year Plan(FYP) 16 in March 2016, which is the most environmentally focused FYP from now which aims to solve China's "unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable growth" through innovative, coordinated, green, open, and inclusive growth (U.S. C hina .2017) It attach ing great importance to global climate change, environmental risk prevention and control, and inte nsify ing ecological conservation and restoration. In June 2015, the Ministry of Urban and Housing approved the "Double Repair" comprehensive plan. Sanya became the first city to carry out urban repair as well as ecological restoration and a t the same time it needs to opt imize urban traffic, reinforce Sponge C ity and utility tunnel construction, which will provide a reference for the transformation and development with other cities in the country. The Ministry aims to expand to more than 19 cities by 2017. In terms of city repair, it intends to largely complete renovation of shantytowns, underdeveloped areas in cities, and dilapidated housing, to improve the urban management level (Construction21.2016) increase public and green scape strengthen plan ning and regulation to 16 The 13th Five Year Plan(FYP): the Chinese government's most important strategy to address its economic, social, and environmental challenges over the next five years (2016 2020).

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60 achieve multilayered urban spaces, coherent overall style and look, and cultural continuit y ( C entral C ommittee of the C ommunist P arty C hina .201 6 ) improve urban lighting planning and urban skyline and transform street facade. Ecologically, the emphasis is on coastline and estuaries repair, to establish a wetland protection system, and mountain restoration In terms of "Sponge City" construction 17 it is not only expected to store, sorb and infiltrate st orm water in open space W hen it comes to flooding, it can also reuse the stored water when it is in shortage. T he Ministry of Water Resources 18 puts forward key water conservancy projects and give s technical support. For instance, the government develop s k ey technical standard on water level, flow scale, water quality in key water saving spots within the cities, to promote city flood prevention and drainage system with the combination of engineering facilities and emergency responding management (Kingdom of the Netherlands.2016). The Mi nis try is also a ccelerat ing the utility tunnel construction and the upgrading of urban sewage treatment facilities and sewer networks, promot ing the recycling and safe disposal of sludge, and ensur ing that household wastewater and refuse treatment facilities cover all urban areas, operate reliably, and are in line with standards ( Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. 2016) 17 Sponge Cities construction: the concept put forward since end of 2013.Sponge Cities refer to t hose cities with an infrastructure that collects excess rainfall and integrates flood control in urban planning. There are in total 30 pilot cities approved across C hina by 2016. 18 responsible for functioning, guidance and supervision on water conservancy aspect of sponge cities %

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61 The Ministry of Urban and Housing partnered with design teams such as Turenscape 19 to implement three wetland parks, and one arterial road landscape design. In addition, it will invit e non profits, academic professors and website communities were invited to participate in the c onference and could visit during the pro ject process. On going resiliency action Nourish the beaches Supported by the Ministry of Urban and Housing, and the provincial committee and government t he following steps are taken during the first implementation of this construction The "Double Repair" project has repair ed 2.6km of shoreline using 223,000 cubic meter s of offshore sand to nourish the beach In 2015, ecologist s developed a Sanya Bay restoration and enhancement project to preserve the health and structural integrity of the entire dune system. The project is aimed to replanting cleared areas with native species and remove non native plants in Sanyawan Road (Guangming Street to Haihong Road) I n this p roject a total of 4 million Yuan are invested to restore approximately 17.4 hectare and 15.1km in length by the end of 2015 (Sanya Daily News.2016). Additionally, they have created six Mangrove Forest Conservation and Restoration project in Sanya, see Appendix C 1. 19 more information on their official website, https://www.turenscape.com/en/project/index/1.html

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62 Waterfront parks project % The buildings occupying public gr een land will be phased out within a set time period. Moreover, the natural system serve s as a buffer for the mainland and protect s the shoreline from erosion and storm surges will be restored Sanya sets up six waterfront parks occupy ing about 2,870,000 square meters by 2016 ( Table 1 0 ) Al l of these parks applied LID (Low Impact Developme nt) technology to absorb, infiltrate, store stormwater, and put residents closer to greenery. E xample include East Wetlands P ark Fengxinlong Eco Park, and Chunguang Road Mangrove Forest Parks, Waterfront parks project St rategy East Wetlands Park W et lands Bailu Park B ioswales sink impoundments Fengxinlong Eco Park Wetlands, Bioswales, impoundments Jinjiling Park Bioswales, sink impoundments Chunguang Road Mangrove Forest Parks sink impoundments Sanya West River and S anya East River Shelterbelt Pervious pavements, Bioswales impoundments Table 10 : W aterfront parks project T he approved Sanya Comprehensive Stormwater Utility Control Management plan defines the planning, construction, operation and maintenance of canal s and drainage improvement projects and secondary drainage systems in unincorporated portions of the city. R ecent work

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63 includes 58km in length, clean ing 76 sewage drain outlet s exp anded 7 treatment plants including new pumps, and built 6 new treatment plant s (see Appendix C 2). U rban development that leaves no room for the maintenance of woodland, grassland, lakes and wetlands that could naturally detain water creates stormwater management challenges I n order to construct S ponge C ities it needs to capture excess rainfall and reuse them in shortage, the Chinese government proposed the concept of Sponge City and that applie d LID 20 (low impact development) strate gies to absorb, infiltrate, and store stormwater. For instance, increases the area of pervious pavements in public square and parking lots, designing bio swales and rain garden s along the street, and green roofs for stormwater detention in the community. T he China urban planning department divided Sanya into six S ponge City district s, which applied LID strategies to control stormwater runoff rates (see Appendix C 3). 20 low impact development is an alternative comprehensive approach to stormwater management.

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64 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND SUM MA RY I n coastal regions building resilience is very urgent, with the consideration of the trends in human settlement, resource use, and global environmental change (Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. 2016). Nearly 70% of coastal disasters are associated with extreme weather events each year such as storm surge and flooding which are supposed to become more common hazards because of the shifts of climate and SLR D ue to the different matrix of coastal regions, diversified measure s should be adopted to meet various the deve lop ment context s and background s The effective measure s in one region may exacerbate problem s under different context s Therefore, adaptation measures should be chosen on a site specific basis with a detailed analysis of potential implications. The following tab le is combined by four systems which are previous ly addressed in the discuss ion of three coastal region s ( Table 1 1 ) The table provide s a complete overview of potential resilience measures to address climate related risks. Based on the summary of case studies the toolbox' can demonstrate how multiple objectives such as more amenities, ecosystem preservation, greater access to economic opportunit ies jobs, and better public space can be achieved with the adoption of resilience measures T he Toolbox c an be divided into four categories: natural system s building and non stormwater infrast r u ctu res and st or mwater management, and governance.

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65 6(7('4% % % 025%').%>-(*>6%%%%%%%%% ;).('.+26%>-(*>6% # % (@+-.+'7%2;;6+(4% % % Category M ea sures Lower Manhattan Miami Sanya Natural system Dune nourishment and vegetation # # Restore mangrove forests and wetlands # # Restore natural barrier # Increase the height and width of beach and dune areas # Utilities monitoring network help to adjust saltwater intrusion # Breakwater # Waterfront parks # # # Groins # artificial reefs # Building s and non stormwater infrastructure Built flood proofing buildings i. % Dry flood proofing ii. % Wet flood proofing # Elevated buildings and Evacuated ground floors for amenities. i. % Elevate fill or berm ii. % Elevate piles # Use flooding walls or big bench to prevent water infiltration # Design floating buildings on water # Build energy plant in community # Elevated mechanical system #

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66 Table 11: The summary of r esiliency measure in coastal communities Natural S ystem s I n Miami Dade County and Sanya experi en ce the impact of SLR on ecological system, such as the decrease of natural resources, beach erosion and saltwater intrusion. Both Miami and Sanya Avoid below basement and parking # Add affordable housing on replacement building # S torm water management Plant bioswales, rain gardens, green and blue roofs to control runoff rates. # # # Increase the use of pervious pavements, # # # Plant slat tolerant trees # Build reservoirs # # Improve pump capacities # # Maintain sewer infrastructure # Retrofit drainage systems # Govern ance Propose p olic ies and regulation s # # # Convene local and state agencies # # # Increase funding # # # Collaborate with professionals and experts # # # Collaborate with community organizations # # Collaborate with non governmental organizations # # E stablish a website with update d source about the best practices related to climate change # # Develop educational materials that integrated into Public Schools curriculum on climate change. #

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67 take measures to i mprov e dune restoration and vegetation management T hey face similar challenge s in the identifying of viable sand source s for the future beach re nourishment 21 protecting or restor ing adjacent mangrove forests and restoring of wetlands in flood prone areas. Miami Dade County specifically increase d the heig ht and width of beach and dune areas and restore d sea grass beds for the purpose of trap ping sediment and reduc ing erosion rates. In addition to the increas ed risk s of inun dation and beach loss, sea level rise in Miami cause d problem s with water supply and water quality due to the saltwater flow inland along the base of aquifer T herefore, Miami Dade County water and sewer department uses a monitoring network to track saltwater intrusion and adjust pressure to shift water sources betw een wellfields. Building s and Non stormwater I nfrastructure Lower Manhattan is relatively more urbanized, with a high population density and a critical financial business. T herefore, its land value is more concentrated on residential and commercial area rather than the lands with abundant conservatio n, un like Miami and Sanya. T he resilience measures they have take n include flood proofing building s, avoid ing below grade basement s and elevat ing mechanical systems ; utiliz ing evacuated space of ground floors for amenities ; parking and stormwater retention and introducing new commercial activit ies conducted 21 Most of sands pours into the construction industry T he Freedonia Group which is a market research firm, suggest that of the 13.7bn tons of sand mined worldwide for construction last year, 70% was used in Asia. Half wa s used in China alone

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68 in repurposed ground floor spaces would attract residents with new jobs, which is beneficial social ly and economic ally. T hus, some measures can be adopted, such as keeping the equal number of apartment s ; adding affordable housing build ing energy plant s on campus to provide backup support in emergency. Miami and S anya have lower densities than Manhattan, thus there is no nee d for the two cities to build floating buildings in water and site protection near the shorelines. S tor mwater management In t he three coastal areas stormwater management is applied to drain inland excess rainfall for the protect ion of cities from flooding. Such strategi e s are easily appl ied and learn ed I n China stormwater management is called sponge city which uses LID strategies to protect cities from flooding. S imilar strategies are taken in the other two case studies such as imp rov ing swale areas where they are compacted or compromised increas ing the use of porous pavements in areas where infiltration is possible in creas ing the use of green roofs and facades to reduce urban run off enhanc ing the stormwater system by creating a collection system and increas ing the area of pervious surfaces where they can effectively increase infiltration Water supply in New York C ity and Sanya rely on inland reservoirs and water transported pipe. I n 2016, Sanya bec a me one of the 30 sponge cities and retrofitted of drainage in areas where exfiltration systems cease d to work because submerg ed, increased maintenance on sewer infrastructure to remove obstructions and maintain system capacity increase d impoundment areas to temporarily store wa ter during times of heavy rains and improved pump capacities.

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69 Govern ance Government plays a critical role in the face of climate related risks and other natural disasters worldwide U nder the direction of government policies, plans and funding can accelerate recover y and rebuild ing of coastal communities affected by disasters Sanya should also enhance co o p e ration with the private sector, non profit and community organizations which is very important for the shaping and implementing of community plan s New York City and Miami have develop a website where there is up to date information about the commissioners' adaption efforts. Miami has identified and developed educational materials which integrated into a Miami Dade Public Schools cu rriculum on climate change and sustainability (Miami Dade County. 2016) which can be learned by Sanya and New York City. Next step In terms of creating resilient b uilding environment s in coastal cit ies contexts we should pay attention to inland wate rway and water management and de velop ing a comprehensive planning and zoning regulation to deal with setbacks and limits on density and urban infrastructure s in coastal zones and consider vulnerability to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion. I t needs to r eview the current stormwater management systems as well such as inspect operation of canals and water structures, for the purpose of eliminating unnecessary over drainage or blocked drainage is important As for the develop ment of an enhanced resilien t coast capital plan but should also include salinity structures, and a capital plan includ ing pump stations, and road and bridge designs,

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70 healthcare, and insurance. For better ecological restoration, government need s to increase investment and resources for land acquisition and management programs, work together with universities, government agencies, academic professionals and private organizations Adaptation measures should be take n to maximize co benefits and cost effectiveness. For example, when designing a new home, it may be very cost effective to invest upfront in marginal cost The purpose is to increase the design elevation by two feet and benefit from the reduction in flood damages and insurance premiums over the lifetime of that buildi ng. In contrast, it may not be cost effective to elevate an existing building by that same amount though it may confer the same benefits (Miami Dade County. 2016). Currently, Sanya is removing the illegal houses and renovating the shantytown in the city, it would be more cost effective to integrate resiliency considerations into the design phase as they can rebuild new flood proof ed buildings based on strategies taken in L ower Manhattan. As demonstrated by the analysis of SwissRe, many cost effective adap tation measures include preserving and enhancing natural coastal defenses such as beaches, dunes, and mangrove forests ( G i menez.2016) A ccording to the government 's D ouble R epair" master plan Sanya should fully use its ecological advantages and restore natural system F inally p ay close attention to saltwater intrusion, and lear n from Miami to set up a monitor network to contro l saltwater withdrawals from the aquifer

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71 APPENDIX APPENDIX A 1 : C omparison of preliminary work maps and future floodplains ( FEMA ) APPENDIX A 2: Location and level of building damage in Southern Manhattan (DOB December T ag s)

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72 APPENDIX A 3: Alternative 1 flip down deployable in segment C 2. APPENDIX A 4: Alternative 2 B ig bench and deployable in segment C 2.

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73 APPENDIX B 1 : Countywide Map 1, 2, & 3 Foot Sea Level Rise Miami Dade County

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74 APPENDIX B 2: E nvironmentally E n dangered L and s P ro gram in Miami Dade County MAP# PRESERVE Acquired ACRES 1 Arch Creek Addition 1.5 2 Bird Key 0 3 Black Creek Forest 7 4 County Line Scrub Site 15 5 Deering Estate Additions 83 6 Dolphin Center Addition 4 7 Coastal Wetlands 872 8 Miami Rockridge Pinelands 309.27 9 Other Rockridge Pinelands 322 10 Oleta River Corridor 32.5 11 South Dade Wetlands 19,155 12 Tropical Hammocks: 188.4 13 Hattie Bauer Hammock 15 14 Barnacle Addition 0 15 Tree Island Park 120 16 Park Natural Areas 2897.2 Total Acquired/Managed Acres 23,500

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75 APPENDIX C 1 : Mangrove F orest Conservation and R estoration project in Sanya Categories Project Scale USD ( million ) Total ( million ) Conservation Natural Reservations Sanya R i ver Mangrove Forest Restoration 17.3acres 0.63 121.84 Tielu Harbor Mangrove Forest Restoration 148.26acres 5.41 Qingmei Harbor Mangrove Forest Restoration 24.71acres 0.91 Mangrove Wetlands Park Yulin R i ver National Wetlands Park 605.41 acres 76.38 Ningyuan R i ver Wetlands Park 326.18 acres 28.87 Mangrove Shelterbelt Yanzhao Shelterbelt 133.44 acres 3.78 Mangrove Forest landscape Sanya R i ver Mangrove Forest landscape 47.13 acres 2.25 N ingyuan R i ver Mangrove Forest landscape 49.42 acres 1.51 Infrastructure Observation tower 3 0.06 M o nitoring station 4 0.18 Signs 50 0.03 F encing 16 404ft 0.15 P at rol ship 4 0.18 Education and monitoring Educational -0.60 Research monitoring 0.90

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76 APPENDIX C 2: T reat ment plant capability NO. T reat ment plant Projected R eality T reat & supply Capability 1 Hongsha 132,103yd /d 132,103yd /d 100% 2 Luhuitou 13,079yd /d 9,155 yd /d 70% 3 Xincheng 19,619yd /d 12,294yd /d 63% 4 L izhi gou 19,619yd /d 9,155yd /d 47% 5 High Tech Industrial Park 13,079yd /d 0 0 6 1801 Anzhiqu 13,079yd /d 0 0 Total 183,113yd /d 162,709yd /d 88%

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77 APPENDIX C 3 : Storm water runoff rates in six S ponge City district of S anya District P arcel New added area / Land for construction Open space & square/Land for construction Annual runoff rate s Haipo HP 1 58.34% 16.62% 60% HP 2 65.82% 41.41% 68% HP 3 58.85% 17.35% 60% HP 4 68.20% 13.52% 65% HP 5 100% 27.93% 70% Yuechuan YC 1 74.93% 15.29% 80% YC 2 24.24% 31.00% 55% YC 3 55.27% 26.45% 85% YC 4 84.72% 19.43% 67% YC 5 100% 19.55% 70% YC 6 61.96% 2.76% 62% Sanya West River HX 1 49.65% 10.49% 55% HX 2 0.00% 13.76% 40% HX 3 0.00% 7.79% 38% S anya East River HD 1 0.00% 2.06% 36% HD 2 55.19% 27.08% 60% Luhuitou LHT 1 29.65% 31.20% 58% LHT 2 33.68% 15.59% 55% LHT 3 0.00% 10.39% 46% Yulin YJ 1 68.90% 30.73% 65% YJ 2 78.86% 14.11% 67% YJ 3 49.88% 18.80% 60% YJ 4 96.63% 35.76% 73% YJ 5 44.01% 13.97% 55% Total 60%

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78 LIST OF REFERENCES Blakely, E. J., & Carbonell, A. (2012). Resilient coastal city regions: Planning for climate change in the United states and Australia. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. NG, W., & MENDELSOHN, R. (2005). The impact of sea level rise on singapore. Environment and Development Economics, 10 (2), 201 215. doi:10.1017/S1355770X04001706 Harley, C., Hughes, A., Hultgren, K., Miner, B., Sorte, C., Thornber, C., Williams, S. (2006). Th e impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems. Ecology Letters, 9(2), 228 241. doi:10.1111/j.1461 0248.2005. 00871.x Marfai, M. A. (2011). Impact of coastal inundation on ecology and agricultural land use case study in central java, indonesia. Qua estiones Geographicae, 30(3), 19 32. doi:10.2478/v10117 011 0024 y Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R., & Corfee Morlot, J. (2013). Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Climate Change, 3(9), 802 806. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1979 Adger, W. N., Hughes, T. P., Folke, C., Carpenter, S. R., & Rockstršm, J. (2005). Social ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science, 309(5737), 1036 1039. doi:10.1126/science.1112122 Galbraith, H., Jones, R., Park, R., Clough, J., Herrod Julius, S., Harrin gton, B., & Page, G. (2002). Global Climate Change and SLR : Potential Losses of Intertidal Habitat for Shorebirds. Waterbirds: The International Journal of Waterbird Biology, 25(2), 173 183. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1522092

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79 Kim, H., & Marcouiller, D. W. (2016). Natural disaster response, community resilience, and economic capacity: A case study of coastal Florida. Society & Natural Resource s, 29(8), 981 997. doi:10.1080/08941920.2015.1080336 Small, C., & Nicholls, R. J. (2003). A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. Journal of Coastal Research, 19(3), 584 599. Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A., Zimmermann, J., & Nicholls, R. (2015). Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea level rise and coastal flooding A global assessment. Plos One, 10(3), e0118571. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0118571 van Slobbe, E., de Vriend, H. J., Aarninkhof, S., Lulofs, K., de Vries, M., & Di rcke, P. (2013). Building with nature: In search of resilient storm surge protection strategies. Natural Hazards, 66(3), 1 461 1480. doi:10.1007/s11069 013 0612 Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Bouma, T. J., Herman, P. M. J., Ysebaert, T., & Vriend, d., H.J. (201 3). Ecosystem based coastal defence in the face of global change. Nature, 504(7478), 79 83. doi:10.1038/nature12859 Horton, R., Little, C., Gornitz, V., Bader, D., & Oppenheimer, M. (2015). New york city panel on climate change 2015 report chapter 2: SLR and coastal storms: NPCC 2015 report chapter 2. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1336(1), 36 44. doi:10.1111/nyas.12593 Michael R. Bloomberg. A Stronger, More Resilient New York. NYC (2013). Retrieve from: http://s media.nyc.gov/agencies/sirr/SIRR_singles_Lo_res.pdf (5/2017) PlaNCY Progress Report: Sustainability & resiliency (2014). NYC. Retrieve from: http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/downloads/pdf/140422_PlaNYCP Report_FINAL_Web.pdf (5/2017)

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80 Bill de Blasio. OneNYC 2017 Progress Report. OneNYC (2017). Retrieve from: http://onenyc.cityofnewyork.us/wp content/uploads/2017/05/OneNYC_Progress_Report_2017.pdf (5/2017) BIG Team. THE BIG "U". Rebuilt by Design (2014). Retrieve from: http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/data/files/675.pdf (5/201 7) Department of City Planning Coastal Climate Resilience : U rban waterfront adaptive strategies(2013) .NYCP lanning Retrieve from: https://www1.n yc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/plans studies/sustainable communities/climate resilience/urban_waterfront.pdf (5/2017) NYC Mayor's Office of Housing Recovery Operations One City, Rebuilding Together. NYC Recovery (2014). Retrieve from: http://www1.nyc.gov/assets/home/downloads/pdf/reports/2014/sandy_041714.pdf (6/2017) City Planning. Flood Resilience Zoning Text. NYC Planning (2017). Retrieve from: http://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/zoning/districts tools/flood test/flood text overview.pdf (6/2017) NYC Mayor's Office of Housing Recovery Operations. Build It Back Pogress Updates (2016). Retrieve from: http://www.nyc.gov/html/recovery/downloads/pdf/build it back update 10 20 16 f inal.pdf (6/2017) Sea Level Rise Work Group. Unified Sea Level Rise Projection. Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (2012). Retrieve from: http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/wp content/uploads/2015/10/2015 Compact Unified Sea Level Rise Projectio n.pdf (5/2017)

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81 Analysis of the Vulnerability of Southeast Florida to Sea Level Rise. Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (2012). Retrieve from: http://www.southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/wp content/uploads/2014/09/vulnerability assessment.pdf (5/2017) Greenprint. Climate Change Action Plan. Miami Dade county ( 2010 ) Retrieve from: https://www.miamidade.gov/greenprint/pdf/climate_action_plan.pdf (5/2017) The Natural Conservancy. Nature Based Coastal Defenses in Southeast Florida Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (2017). Retrieve from: https://www.nature.org/media/florida/natural defenses in southeast florida.pdf (6/2017) Miami Dade County. Miam i Dade's Final Report in R esponse to M ultiple Re solutions P e rtaining to Recommendation s by the Sea Level Task Force Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (2012). Retrieve from: http://www.miamida de.gov/mayor memo/284999 Final Status Report Response Multiple Resolutions Pertaining to Recommendations Sea Level Task Force.pdf (6/2017) C ar los A. G imen ez Miami Dade County Beach Erosion Control Master Plan Regulation Economic Resources (2010). Retrieve from: http://www.miamidade.gov/environment/library/reports/beach renourishment doc.pdf (6/2017) The Consortium for Hydro generated Urbanism (CHU). Ret rieve from: https://dcp.ufl.edu/architecture/graduate school/special programs/consortium for hydro generated urbanism/ (7/2017) T he 1 3th F ive Year Plan for Economic and S ocial D evelopment of the P eople's R epublic of China (2016 2020 ). Translated by Compilation and Translation Bureau Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Beijing, China.

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82 Central Compilation & Translation Press. 2016 Retrieve from: http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/201612/P020161207645765233498.pdf (6/2017) U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission. The 13th Five Year Plan United States Government Publishing Office (2017). Retrieve from: https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/The%2013th%20Five Year%20Plan .pdf (6/2017) Helen Chin, Winnie He. The Belt and Road Initiative: 65 Countries and Beyond. Fung Business Intelligence Centre. 2016. Retrieve from: https://www.fbicgroup.com/sites/default/files/B%26R_Initiative_65_Countries_and_Bey ond.pdf (6/2017)

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83 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Li Mengyi was born in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. She has lived in Hubei until 2016. She received her Bachelor degree of Art Design at HUST (Huazhong University of Science and Technology) and was accepted to the G raduate S chool of HUST after graduattion She attended the interdisciplinary program between HUST and University of Florida from 2016 to 2017 in sustainable design.

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