Public hearings before the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics ..


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Public hearings before the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics .. report of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States
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v. : ill. ; 24 cm.
United States -- National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics
United States -- Congress. -- Joint Economic Committee
U.S. Govt. Print. Off.
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Subjects / Keywords:
Full employment policies -- United States   ( lcsh )
Labor supply -- United States   ( lcsh )
Unemployed -- United States   ( lcsh )
Full employment policies -- United States   ( lcsh )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
bibliography   ( marcgt )
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Includes bibliographical references.
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Also available in electronic format.
General Note:
v. 1. hearings held in Washington, May 9 and 10, 1978.
General Note:
Hearings held: v. 2, New York, N.Y., Chicago, Ill., and San Francisco, Calif., May 23, June 13 and 20, 1978; v. 3, Atlanta, Ga., and Washington, D.C., July 11 and 26, 1978.
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Reuse of record except for individual research requires license from Congressional Information Service, Inc.
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Reuse of record except for individual research requires license from LexisNexis Academic & Library Solutions.
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At head of title: 95th Congress, 2d session. Joint committee print.
General Note:
CIS Microfiche Accession Numbers: CIS 78 J842-21 (v.1), CIS 79 J842-6 (v.2), CIS 79 J842-9 (v.3)

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University of Florida
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Full Text

95hCongres JITawwrg gg


.v. 9 .0 OUME. 2.

iaefrings hela A'N ew York,'"X. .2M3yS, 19-78; Chicago ., Ju 1X 978 and San Franciso '. 1978




rate flor the use of the Joint Economic committee


-t Bd by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Offie
1 Washington, D.C. 20%02


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To theMembem of the Joint Economic Committee:
Trans tted herewith are the transcripts of the second set of public hearings conducted by the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment'Statistics.
The Joint Economic Committee has always maintained a deep interest in the evolution of the statistics on employment and unemployment, to meet changing legislative needs. For that reason we have been pleased to participate as advisers to the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics, whose mandate covers this problem
Because the public hearings held by the Commission provide informative and valuable material from several different sources, the committee has agreed o publish the transcripts in order to provide widespread dissemination. I believe. that members of the Joint Economic Committee and other Members of Congress- will find them most usefuL
Theviewsexpressed in the transcripts are those of the witnesses and do not necessarily represent the views of the members of the Joint Econonfic Committee or the committee staff.
lAm BoLLiNG.,
Chairman, Joint EcononueC ommittee.

OCTO)MR24, 1978.
Chairman .efoi, tkconomie Committee, U.S. Congress, w6hinqton D.C.
DFAR Mit. CnAiiRmAN: Transmitted herewith are the transcripts of the second set of public he airing conducted by the National Commison Employment and Unemployment Statistics.
The Joint Economic Committee has maintained a continued interest in the formulation of statistics on employment and unemployment. As you -. are well aware, these data are under increasing scrutiny because T)ast legislation has placed insupportable demands on these statistics. In the initial process of examining various' alternatives to existing methods of data collection and presentation, the Commission on Emplovment and Unemplovmemt Statistics held public hearings. Withesses included persons from congressional, academic, government, and public sectors. Their combined testimony gives the Joint Economic Committee a valuable and broadly based compendium of information.

The caonmittee's undertaking to puklish m bearing wil eahle a' wide-ranging audience to review the materiaL The expected feedback from interested parties should provide another senses of imnportant insight in our studies. Public dissemination also wRi focus attnton on th complxte amin ion implicit in any abanges
The transcripts were prepared for phblication under the direction of Sar Levitan, the Chaiman, Marc Ramhlumn and Lois Black of the f bmmimsin's staff.
The views epressd in the hearings are those of the tye. h wifenesses and do not necnrl represent the v iews of the *8 5 xcoaimie Committee or any of itsabnlividual mmes
Reseesie Direcede, Jfoint: Rosandsb demmed d.

NONxArL thXO W EmMArYMn "Do,
Washington, D.C., October 17,1978.
Mr=. JOx R. STARK,
9eoutise Director,.Joint Eonomic Committee, U.S. Congress8, IWashington, D.C.
DEAR MI. STARK: ThiB is the se00Rd of three vo0umes of bB of the public hearings conducted by the National Commission u ployment and Unepomn Statistics. WEs volume contains er ings held on May 23s178 in New York City; June 1s, 19W8, in9d ougo; and June 20,998,in San Francisco.* The cooperation of the Joint Economic Commite in publ~ing these documents has been invaluable to the efforts of t 6mminsionL to present the issues involved in improving our labor force statistics to the general public for comment and discussion. Thank youagi for your contined iterest and assistance.
S"n A.Lk IanrA



Letters of Transmittal ........... iii

Opening Statement of Chairman Sar A. Levitan

TUESDAY, MAY 231'1978

Bienstock, Herbert, regional commissioner, United
States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics 3

Brezenoff, Stanley, commissioner, Department of
Employment, City of New York ................ 13

Dorkin, Murray, director, of research and
statistics, Department of Labor, State
of New York .................................. 24

Scanlon, Rosemary, staff economic analyst,
The Port Authority of New York and
New Jersey ..................................

Pressley, Calvin, director Opportunities
Industrialization Center of New York ........ 51

O"Neal, Arthur, director of research and
planning, Department of Labor and
Industry, State of New Jersey ................ 62

Bu-stelo, Manuel, executive director National
Puerto Rican Forum .......................... 76

Dofter John, research director, Penobscot CETA
Consortium, Bangor, Maine, representing
the New England Council of CETA Prime
Sponsors, Inc.,; accompanied by Stephen W.
Berman, executive director, New England
Council of CKTA Prime Sponsors, Inc.
IAcht, Leonard direetor Special Projects
Department, The Conference Board ............ 106

............. College ..............116
LeiRbet ieprsdn, cnmc
Department Citiban Corpoatio
Moses. Stnleyprofssor f111111111es.

City Uniersty.f.ew.ork........15
TUESDY, JNE 13 197
Rice, William E., regional commissioner,
iiiiiiUnited StatesiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieiiiiiiiiiLaborii
Bureau of Labor Statistics ..... 162
ernste n, aulCdrcoM rsOfc
B iiiiiiyi ofiMapoweiCiyiofihicao 16

ModHo.TmiMyriClmuihoibeil. Nba 7
Mc ride NolA....o ic rsiet

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iiiiidirectoriiLatiiioiInstitutei iiiiiiiiiiii Louis,, professori of= socolgy
N University of Michigan 217
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Assoiatin ofCommrc nd Idusty... 273

Baco, Waren ., mnage, mapowe admnis

trto, nad te Croato 8
Staggs, JanirsearchieconomstiGovernor'



Glick, Martin, director, EmploymmtDevelopment Department,, State of California;
accompanied by Robert Hotchkiss,,director,
Employment Data md Research Division,
Employment Development Departs&#_nt,
State of California ................. 406

Post, John, chief of reseprch k" analysig,
Department of Labor, State of Alaska,
and Jewell Jones, director. -of human
support services, Municipality ot
Anchorage, Alaska ............. 427

Marenco, Eduardo, director for policy
studies and research, Mexican American
Legal Defense and Educational Fund, 442

Heaton, Cris, Department of Agricultural
Economics, University of California:
at 451

Gordon, Margaret S., associate directors
Carnegie Commission on Higher Education 471

Appendix A. Additional Subm sslon by,
Eunice Elton, director,, Mayorls office bf
Employment and Training,, City and County .......
of San Francisco 490

Appendix B. Additional Submission by Martin R.'
Glick, director, Employment Devel6puftt
Department,, State of-California KdAlth,:'and..
Welfare Agency 508

Appendix C. Additional Submission'by Marial.. cir4a'..
executive director, Latino'lustitute 5121.

Appendix D. Economic Dislocation: The Need foi
Data,, Additional Submission by Howard Young, special consultant to the president, United
Auto Workers

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Comisio iMembiers-i

Sar A.LvtnCara
Bernard E.Anero

Jacki Calo
Michael H. Msk
Rudolp Oswal
Samue L.Ppi
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Manue Plotkini
ChrlsSculz Julius Shiski R i h r i iB.......................n.........
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TUESDAY, MAY 239 1978


Washington, D.C.

The Commission met,, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m. in room 3560, 1515 Broadway, New York, New York, Sar A. Levitan, Chairman, presiding.
Present: Bernard E. Anderson, Jack Carlson
Michael H M and Joan L. Wills.
Also present: Arvil V. Adams, executive director; Marc Rosenblum, staff economist; and Wesley H. Lacey, administrative officer.


CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: This hearing is part of our effort to learn firsthand what the American people think about current employment and unemployment statistio cs We.regard this phase of our investigation as a necessary and important part of the Commission's work to listen and to ask questions.
In Washington we listened and heard in unmistakenly clear terms the concern of state and local government officials regarding the imprecision of unemployment rates affecting their areas. Some of those concerns will no doubt be expressed again here today.
This is understandable. While present methods for estimating state and local unemployment have been in
use for years'. it is only since the allocation of federal money to these areas has become tied to unem...,ployment rates that the accuracy of the estimates is .. pore than the concern of statisticians and employment
service planners. Last year $17 billion was distributed on the basis of these data.
Moreover, accurate local area data are needed because national averages'are not sufficient for policy



formulation. State and local.,emp1q)rme;Lt patterns vary and we ought to have a clearer picture of regional problems.
The Commission regards this issue as important but not our sole activity. Our concerns extend beyond
state and local data. We expect to hear today and in
subsequent sessions witnesses addressing, AWhole range of pressing issues.
We will continue to focus on- the problems associated with the viability of the concepts and definitions of unemployment--concepts in use for 40 years--labormarket related economic hardship, and the data needs of
industry, labor, minority groups, and other segments....of the American community.
Let's open this morning's hearings. The Xatlohai Commission on Employment and Uiiemployment S tAtlist:ics. was formed in conformance wi th Public' I Law 94-"4-t'6 review the nation's employment and unem l:(? ment stN,:atistics and to recommend whatever changes ar el needed.. Y6 have held two hearings in Washington- Since we -fig ve not yet f ound all the answers, we have gone out: into the provinces where the wisdom is, and we hope' to find out what exactly to do. We are delighted to. have as the f irst witness, Mr. Herbert Bien'stdck,, 'OU6 of the foremost national experts on :labor statistics.
Mr. Bienstock, you have the floor for, 15..-. Minuteq to say anything you like. We want to we I co me you...


i 6.x 1.7




8 .BIENSTOCK: It would probably take: me 15IminUtas to correct that last statement, but I appreciate _r making it even if it isn' t true.
The National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics has come into being at a time wha~ our me'asuremen~t systems in these areas are being put eo.a greater test than at anytime since the 1930s.u
Data on labor force, employment, and unemployment available for the United States probably represent the
1,~tbody of such data available any place in the w~ld. Yet.' the current output is largely linked to t~,Icacaptual and methodological foundations of the 1,a. -Going through, as we did, the Great Depression othe 193Ds without really having a good count of ithe pepje adurwing intercenaal periods, we turned as we ered frm the Great Depression to a group of unesp~qed.statisticians working on a WPA project to
deeop a methodology for the estimation of labor fqr ceagemleyment, and unemployment on a continuing

Iis not-surprising, therefore, that the concepts methods that emerged from this process tended to be
gpnded :to a labor market framework. That is the
*sem. sought to determine how many persons in the qne a s 'a whole were offering. their services to qloees for one or more hours of work, and how many ofthose who were. actively seeking work were unable to iid wedr and, consequently, were considered to be n e yed since the market did not have work available

Teetown, as we look toward the measurement needs halfcentur beyead the origin of the ongoing system.., Jt isp aps -time to take a systematic look at th- n"4aor. abor force, employment, and unemployment "Aikur a ithe 1980s as.,I am certain the National Camp oyentand. Unemployment Statistics will

14,ke-vi ~g the state of the art with regard- to
00 ee agat of infe nation in this f ield, it is

useful to 'note that data usersten e d 06ra on
needs while data producers to eaon be-O tible.
Before considering needs, it may be useful tnote that there are essentially -three setsees: raio
tion in this field:,
1. The payroll or rdiated Secord Sroa ofd~
ing establishment.
2. The household interview.
3. The byproducts of shbainistreevO s e.#* A number Lof variations on this these ate pot ble, t
these three sources tend to form the core optwtial for data development .
The establishment reporting system doetyp cally come to mind whe cotepltn th***p"
labor force employment and unemployment. -B~::~phyroll record is a most useful source ofe aly nd
wage information since data reported te0 db?-ub-*
stentially more accurate for -many parole t" da6ta derived f rom household interviews, paicuar* y ith
regard to yielding accurate industrial aAsoqtionA detail..
The monthly establishment sample dB
the BLS with current estimates linked to ecbmWas derived f rom an administrative base--the uteployment insuance tax report--is perhaps our primary :6ci- for payroll employment information. This saml isk fy;
view, has considerable .potential ,for overi= vi.wth supplements on a quarterly and possibly moe::rdquendt basis, fer the purpose of developing an array uflsefulf information for labor market analysis.
I ould encourage the' enhanced use bth -monthly
sample of reporters for the divelopment of ..fman on.
that has been badly needed for the last cpi of deades and that will clearly be needed t.o* .decades ahead.4 For example, the national repe rtii sstem,
primarily a mail response system and codse~quettrelaktively inexpensive, was enhanced :in the imediipost~w World War II period through a Iseries of oprtive, arrangements with state- agencies to the degre t*forll
some period of time we have had a reasonable reliabl4i.
data output on employment, hours,: and .rigi for
states and for between 200 and 300 Merare t areas.i:


Th~epnso o ti smlei~te eio olo

very,,,~~~ ..........tut...u.,
of 190.s nd te ealy 190s te ned fo
"locl'!data semed o b forstae an meropoita are~dta.:,B te 160~ad 97s t bcae budatl
clea:. tat, Ameicanlabr foce poblms- equied boy f. ''lcl"dta t osieabyloe .lveso disagpeYet her . ...gaton hanthe etrpoltanare ha~b~e~itlefowrd1mvmet n hs rot .1ded tetedec hsbenfo awyslmie
resou,,res to beput intotheideveopmentioidata fo
addition, meroplita -aras rthe tha intith
developmnt of daa atithilowerilveliofiiiagirii
tin,. Wihn h fae fdaaus ndte oalcs
of dgvelopmetiihisimay haveibeeniachoiceiwhic

basis for central business"d strfets'888 atd*s tifcant parts of central: citya wae as fReference, was made *to a! quarterly,' &r*re're& quent, supplement to the -mosthly establiWihmO~ What is suggested for consideration hM re is:.t ,-h
monthly panel of establishments that 'now' els national estimates of employment, hours, And by industry as well as 'estimates in 4aryi-ng aere f
detail for states and- metropolitan areas, to information on a wide range of labor force ehama'6a; tics While the present sample yields averads'vel earnings, it might be: possible to collect daaone quarterly basis, or- annually, that would yield ifra:
tion on earnings distrttbutions, a subjectwic there is much interest. Quarterly' or' annuale u~e*
ments might be used to request idiftirmatted wiyig.1 increasingly f inding its way into payrall",'tto& through EEOC processes and other each SaAii''aaie generators It is worth explorin-g thirie td aic
information-- can be developed *from payrbl' reors;6r characteristics such as age, sex, race, ad h lk
The thrust of my comments above isl' lythmper
monthly establishment reporting system-las1poe Wht~ the past quarter century to be perhaps% thems iefl
able and least expenetrve vehicle for the ce to
labor market information. I think this vle'nii i.
examined in substantial detail to identify isfl potential f or the development of Jabor fakt:inia.' tion that Iwill clearly' be needed i- 9 h 18ti beyond.
The other major source of *later fic'-klyei information--the household: interview- fis: be udr
pressure in recent years for the A4li a increasing degrees -of detail. Here 4i1cn rt....S enormous cost problem in terms of. th6 'i~n O
sampling,", errors of estimate relaet, S1e
of sample rather than sise of theunvse:A.
increasing use is made of these sysem thana:1ctiV

and other purposes, it has become t-lear ot t
tisticaL bridges have really: not-beet--lif*t,'h strength required to carry the 'toas aht. rcnik
been placed on them.
How shall wet move ,i the dieeind,1mrvn. the basic vehicles needed to move onrP ~ h


f9affe i'Ve need now' to 'take a look at what the Current POUlitio-n-survey is now yielding us in termsof a kind
of. -demographic matrix. With the enormous
Asotmt df piessure for information at the local level used: 4'ow, to "trigger" large sums, it appears to me to be neices'sary to evaluate 6ur entire hougehold survey col.1'ectilon fkame to determine how sample expansion can be used 'selectively to detail out, those geographicdem6graphit cells'fot which we need' 'reliable informa---;
a Obviously there are cost limits in terms of de4 614ing detailed information at every conceivable level of geography, but it should be possible to find qj timal dimensions at which cost manageable sample
a nsion can yield optimal output in terms of geograPh *ztd detail.
,It sleems clear to me, however, that substantial sample expaasiou'above present levels wil e necessary
to de#,elop.' local- household-based data that have a gfeatOr',,4ektie of -reliability for subnational levels and for 1peciall target groups.' This wi11 be costly, but tiUst be faced. The need for current and reliable .4nformation for the experience of the Puerto Rican population in New York City is an example of this type.
ceptual constraints
Nbv*ng beyond the limits of con
,.that'-Abve their roots in the system developed in the 1* fs,'kit'-is very clear that the market coneept alone ld a6t:.Am" :provide us with sufficient insight about tbe.1'abor force 'Maladjustment problems of the 1970s and
-:,ML Jt is clear that the National Comm'ssion on .1impleymetit and UnemploymOnt Statistics will have to .e.Vlore .-the* supra-market relationships that have ..1ii:,*va.o]Oe& in'the last three decades,-, Amongst some of
that merit priority consideration for the 119"k: ate, ilIegal Migration, nonpayroll recorded work n6 k;-reltted income, and the range of activities
air.: rumning 6ftbers, hustling, and the like. We MJeed.1i:.:to bd' able- through bur measurements to better .VM4*"tand:vdrk-4vLcome relatioinships.
W, Anid-1960s 96me mi0asures of underemployment 16*aW. tw:k6zdr&- In 1966'measures of I'subemployment" v*r*',devt1vp*d:.::::0 They were crude, the methodologywas
U't in 'my view, they were pointing Us in the of providing some guide to the dl*etla ibhs.7 of the fob galadjusitment problem beyond those described by the unemployment measures.' In the

'40-294 0 It 2


decade following, very little sharpening. of these measures took. place of ficiallpq S M
U-1 to U-7 figures were the .first breakhboug n*teras of official recognition thatthere is aa tip d no*
sion to the joblessness problem. The, Com iss chigman' s Employment and I.. EarningsF gInadequgey, In-~ wasl another step in this direction.,.Clearly,, what~i neq4e4 fpr the 1980s and beyond are meaga~res that hae st tis.-. tical sharpness, methodological sufficiency and r-vide
insight to supra-market ,relationag~ps :on, ., cninufag and time. series basis, hopefully with a g s~prphip
Beyond all, the Commission should. giv serious
consideration, to recommending a well-resource going research program. Budgets always tend to beimited, and, consequefitly, research always tends to falby the wayside. Bu( the time is probably long over frA:
well-resourced ongoing continuous, research niog1 that-would be constantly testing the methodq*g aeede4, to provide answers to policy questions that emege, as, they emerge, whether these questions. he concptual, attitudinal, geographic, or other relationship
At this juncture, I would like to Asto the1.4
administrative statistics siace, in a pa= ey too 0
can yield us much in the way of labor earkst iformetion beyond what they now do. Far one .Shiag t wiil
pr .obably never be economically possible to pake11 th household, interviews necessary to yield re labor
force data for the large number of small Ipas fr which such data are now needed for allocationote purposes. We need to more carefully assamine pospy-o
ble use of composite methods incorporatingata from, the household survey for some componeate afo mation derived f rom the ,establishment .u;Fq fox otherr. components, together with information.-#deelope uh&
the administrative record for yet other setr4for. the development of .reasonably usable amell, ae stgis-%. tics on labor force employment.,,. and -eate
The above comments, are a random and *kt~yoverview of some of the systems' potent:ials tat,1te bq-be explored in depth with a view towsrd aiizn their
output for, the statistical needs.,:o This
overview was not intended.. to be a,.cknaeo~.:~W*,.,,o-. sive, but rather to sugst a neg or::R can8,fr 0*0
i"sideration. J.

.MIRMAN LEVITAN: Thank you very-'much. Just one quas t. I- thdoight vb left the filibustering inWahingan.. I thought in N~vw'?York we would not get to that. You used :up mo st of the time without leaving tme: o the questions. I'll still try to squeeze one in. s-~u-ay., we should make it 'Clear, that you are not to-lifig for -the BLS. Then, who are you talking' for?

-M~i.'BENSTOCK: I am talking for Mr. Bienstock of Pace'Ukiversity.

CHAIMN LEVITAN: We will start with Mr. Carlson.

MR. CARLSON: I would like to gain some apprecikLinofwhat. would be the additional cost if you were tb~ryto-survey a submetropolitan area. You mentioed
somehin like 5,000 samples in the larger area around Do you have any idea what the sample would be?

MR. BIENSTOCK: The 5,000 figure I referred to was ah number of households in the Current Population Surv s ampte in this area. You see, the unemployment data are based on the household survey, of course--the national sample. When that was first developed, down
th.road there, they just couldn't figure out a way to c ect :a national sample without also collecting some reprts in New York City and even the New York area
Tey went to another 5,000 households in New YorkN6theasteman New 'Jersey as part of the national 50, 000 agAplng I was ref erring to. The -cost of that -local dto is quite negligible; it is tabulation cost. That's te 5.000 figure, but I think you may be referring to te establishment sample.

MR. CARLSON: Exactly.

7!:' :%1..RENSTCR: I dko not know how to estimate what itr*oUd:ecot itxcept that on-the basis of having worked
witktis p as amwith our state agencies since 1945--I W*A'&*1a1W Satiatician gad working with Murray Dorkin
atd:&1n...te.ret of that trew--it seems to: me it is a
mal at nme, But I can- give tyes a f igure that
porkaps'i will be,.4elpful.


About two or three years ago, :emad e 5* ortt develop that kind of information fop .New YorkCiy A
the Human Re sour ces Administatiou at thattm A
prepared to finance it. We were grepared, copeatvly with New York State, to code New York .Ctit
zip code so that we could make computationsofepy, ment by industry by,.zip codes for the area. 'e _Slmated that it would have taken $60,000 fo trt-up
money; that-is, to do all. the work that weul 4e to be done on the coding, recoding, and so ft ausi
would certainly take nothing like that on a contining
basis. The big job is the additional geo-acoding. So, the $60,000 figure is essentially the roughest offigures. And if. you want to assume that th cos of doing this nationally. 'might be ten times that,,, whc.I don' t think it would be, that might be .a:decent wafo.
you to f eel your way out. I am grasping in tbisare,.. and my hunch--I really shouldn't-.even offer ta-wo be probably in the neighborhood of a half miona dollars.

MR. CARLSON: Which is what percentage.::ofan increase?... .....

MR. BIENSTOCK: That is one-time starting nt
continuing. Continuing costs are incaleulable-. u
they are so little.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: The next witness is waitn;W will have to limit that to one question. No w4 .nw
go to Mr. Anderson.

MR. ANDERSON: I have no questions A


MR. MOSKOW: I, will ask one: now and o aferwards. Just a general question. You have beeI the
Bureau over 30 years., and the typep;o eZ pagesiayo made, some of them, as you sa*-d yearnefd de ell..
cost very auch to do. They ae:eal asye o
existing data that, we new have in ple of
the things we have talked about a., soe -o aer ,,gl too. My question is, why are not analysesliets

alrea)dy going .ba? Is one of the problems that people in tM Rtweau of Labor Statistics are so busy checking the data that they do not have time to think ahead?
The second part of my question, is 'there a need
for some type-of separate group in the Bureau, like a
little analytical group- or whatever it will be called, to...tvy to: think ahead a little: bit -do some of the analyos of this data, to better understand the-labor

MR. BIENSTOCK: Well, most of what you said and
perhaps more. I would call attention to page 7 of what Iptovided. The second paragraph really addresses its 61 f to your 4uestion.,
I said, "Beyond all, the Commission should give
s6tious consideration to recommending a well-resourced ottgoing research program. Budgets always tend to be limited and, consequently, research always tends to
fall by the, wayside. But the time' is probably long .overdue for a: well-resourced ongoing continuous research function that would be constantly testing the methodology needed to provide answers to policy quest1oft that emerge, as they emerge, whetherthese questions be conceptual, attittidinal, geographic, or other
j.. I thl-nk part -of the reason is that operational people are always so busy keeping their heads above water that they never tend to do the kind of thing that
thdie :.tollege professors with'the pens--I do not want td mention any names:--tend to be able to do-. So that I think.we need some kind of separate and clearly identif1ed : research, group' that is working at it continually.
But, very'. important, not an isolated group that soon develops a severe case of Potomac Fever which I have seen good friends of mine coming from all parts of the
TMfted--: .:States -Mw- York, Philadelphlia, Chicago, the WgtT.X.CoAst,' ifth-soon develop. When they develop thaV46ver, -,they are not4hle t&,think very creatively
eikctlM tanceV "So we need a research group
And I think, perh4ps, 'this is really a
t6O"*Vkthe,;head:: thought, a research group like the Bureau Ahat works on a continuous basis with -people r dutbide the' Bureau 'from the universities-, from the
b sttliifteld, and a number of places, not a research
group that will sit in isolation in Washington.



CHAIRMAN -LEVITAN: You have brought Ut Of
ideas., concerning what we have, started,, ini:Washi*&toxtA

MR. BIENSTOCK: Some stay immune.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: Have you figured o4t, 4 XJ'ay to implement your idea about coordinating.or.consoli,4atiug the various systems? I want to utilize the queption that Mr. Carlson referred to you. Since- you have..:.. up the half hour, if you have not spelled it out, would you please do so and send it to the Commission?

MR. BIENSTOCK: Every time I see you, you: give..:Ae that particular homework assignment, and I don't doilt.

CHAIRMAN' LEVITAN: it is a matter of reeor4, Mr. Bienstock and I was wondering when you are go*'ng to do it for us? That is my question.

MR. BIENSTOCK.: May I take that question forcon" sideration? .....

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: No, you have to commit..youiself right now before you are relieved.

MR. BIENSTOCK: I'll try, maybe this summer. Mike had a second question.

MR. MOSKOW: That's all right... We have, another r witness waiting.

MR. BIENSTOCK: Let me now put on:my BLS.-hat.and welcome you all here. I am very delighted that you have come to New York.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: As I said. when we staxted:,this session, we are going out to thefield-to f ixi4..:.,.-O)At .. hQW things should be done.. Since I read the Was 4ingt= papers, I know how well New.York manages *ts etcouomiq affairs. We think that it would be good to deal.:.Xith the Commissioner of: Employment,.. Mr. Stanley Rr"440#*Welcome to the Commission. j.- V

BREZENOFF:,, 1,,have-:a short- presentation -that
_h" beem distribute I will,. not take up; the time- to Me" I would..: .,rather.. highlight some of,.the. points.

LEVITM: -.It -zcs-h*1l, be included in the

. ...... ,,.'1C0MMISS10NER,,, .-DEPARTMENiT.: 70F EMPLOYMENT,
401 mbers of the Com'W.? BREZENOFF- Mr.~ Chairman, me
Stanley.Brezenoff andI am the Com'
iss:ion, !my name is
,masslonler-of the Department ofEmployment:for the City
,of... New York
Mayor.,Kock asked me to extend his welcome on
behalfvof the City and to commend you for selecting New
.Yq-,rk:: rto ..:begin -your, series..,,bf very important public
j1:1.:1:.,.Those..,.of us who live in the :.City .,and work to keep (U-4,"thriving believe, of course,-that New.Yorkis very iipecial. :,Its:,isize alone makes: any, inaccuracy -in th !
unemployment rate: critical. In 1977 one percentage -point 1n.,the, New York City unemployment, rate, equalled
JD00 pe*ple. For Buffalo, New: York State's next
JAVat City,., the comparable figure was 1,950. For Los _AWI wi .,the ,next. largest. CETA progr* in the nation.,
The New York., City -Department of Employment
*4=, a is t -,e3q,,p:-. more- than $450, oil-lion annually in CETA
and every tenth of a,, percentage point in the
A4im*loympnt--..,,rat&As -measored, for u& in,-tens of milOur best national .,experts already shown us
ke- Uff iciAltiep:-,.-and. ow of, the Impossibilities
A"iv I 4etailed &&.:well aww: functional': unemployment ..local.. labor. markets, but I still,, feel 6blised, to.". swmk to, the recox.d onthese.. issues, be-cause
.th.sW_.Ao ct-Ne k City significantly.
z. L -Artoutiting., iAd,:,,. the absence:.. f ocal labor
Aarket-imlvrmativn must be mentioned f irst .,.
*0i1tst we must assum that undercounting has had a
negative effect,. ow. the,. amount of CETA funds allocated to urban: areas with large low income minority popula-

tiona, since:,. these are .the, .grdayps 'mMs liefPto be alssed by the census takrs ? It a'9,eatyonoth ta in Iadition to :the people of s.omeir to !this DeParteent--the, poor and economically disadvntaged-thre are unimown numhars who Wre'-a soe' : +counted because they avoid contact with the system..
For a city the size of New York, regarssa of-the extent or kind of endercounting,,the effect issubstantial. There are, for, 'eample,'* 310,00-yi& people enro11ed in New -York! C ity hi 6 schools we ay1tVirtyf ive to forty thousand high' -school student drop out each year. That' s about 13 percent. This coud mean
that -half our entering -fseshmen wil 'u rdf' gduate.

oar public. school. system, but -it also gives th- &of us on the employment end cause for deep concern because we know these,* yeung,. people --ere an eswg u~ in the uendnmployment statistics- as they are cnrrentl compiled*.
Although undercountinge As'aest often sedto argue that the allocation of resources is inequitabe,- it also has the serious consequence of: makin current
employment -data insufficient to do thakegh progrear planning, and 'here the problem is compoed by' the absence of local labor market' informatteLn.
.Prime sponsors -must now do program' pl an without adequate J ocal -labor -- market information. 1.1his local data would .be extremely useful foUr bra hspects of planning: (1) distributing resources eutably >to targeted populated: gausuchan as youth ig6hool droputs, or -the: handicapped; .(2) atha'srtbaeingam~ources to subareas of -the city (boroughs or omenit pladntit districts) to ref lect geogaphy and ancomp .and 3) selecting training and placement prograe are
appropriate to local-market.conditions.,
These planiag considerations apple pro.
gramsaes well as renewal funding forol prrams.4
Today, if a classroom training or, n on th' rin*tim
ing.,contract is ,being considered fo eee ~ort:, our department. can only evaluae' t :efimance" .
Occupational demand must be demonstrate y:11.trs of
intent" from potential employervi Zre atate amployment. service& offi-ee is9hepuj u does
net cover many occupations and emploperO.


Although complete and timely local labor market
information, is far too costly to propose on. a' national basis she, analysis-has been done locally to point out
which data, weuld be particularly useful, or could be dea~d adat modest- cost from existing sources. Here are pose. sxamphas
8 std turnover information. -Iti esmad
thdt most, of the hiring which takes place over a 12. h period is the result of labor t-hene a e,.eplade workers who leave their jobs. Data on
gtpeth ar declined in levels of employment provide little or no guidance as to actual hiring patterns, which .s the kind-of information that manpower programs
*eed.:, ven the: estimate of openings resulting from the neee to:-seplace-unti'rees account for only 10 percent of
the toal ,hiring activity which octs in the City's8 labor market.
:Babl ahed, data on labor turnover exists only fdr manufacturing industries, which actonnt for a me-re 20 percent af Neu York' s total employment. Data on non-, manufacturing, industries was collected by the New York
Ua Departalnt of Lnbor from 1971 through 1973,' but .us4Yese validated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics or ffLdeially published and has since been disconvv Seepnd.: employment levels,- by industry and locaton. It is not presently possible to tell whether dr notan .Industry's, c itywide employment trend is charac,texisco all of the subareas of the city, or whether
.,emlaes' in 'sodielocations are more strongly affected condit ens than others. Such a situation bett Ade to, waters related directlytoggrpe 1*atoa::(traf f1c, rent dif ferential1, labor market

Detaled. 16as: area labor market data on subareas
.:O'Ae. itl vua be ab levant 'to lotally-based < manpower omi ct'g'i aer wVhba clients Are unable--or simply p-r~~fev -so- -A~:wk far from their home neighborhoods.
o'mInion could be derived by the conversioriof ipc dd UI..c overed employment data into a usalP tme.goesa dat, source for estimating local
(A'g cmunity planning district) employment
Ul" aa-,ientry oby tadustry: 'basis. Ouch a proj exCbar-ben':pbae o-r 'New York City by the Bureau

of Labor Statistics Regional :Of fice. for- the.:vr Oast cost of $60,000.
Third: analysis of employer. job -specif iatns and actual hiring requirements,: by detailed atcp& tional category. At our.. regaeit, t he State Beasema of Labor is analyzing six months of data. dean he:,e
York State Job Bank -and other .reards af j ob. openig,. applicants, and placements&. This .analysis. wl.tba late employers' hiring specifications for .dat ae
occupational categories.. Jobs suitable for
entering the labor market will be looked at sepael from those that require prior experience.
In addition, for each occupation and.a exprec category, the characteristics of iadivida. rfere
to jobs by the New York State EKmployment. Seriewl be. analyzed.. Those who, were actually hire wilad.b
compared with those who were not hired .-n odr. identify actual hiring criteria, as oppose dto.rte specifications for .each occupation.
This information should prove useful: in.te:4M1' text of planning occupational training in oera.:~
it conform to employer expectations. It shol sa
identify occupations most suitable f or varimdt" gories of applicants and provide additional giac o
CETA planners as to which target categories aculy are most in need of special help in the asmettv labor market.
The estimates of our own Manpower%, AreasPanig Council suggest relatively modest costsfr pim
sponsor to acquire the kinds of inforeaio. hea aecribed; but cost is not the only f actsr:. Evr elt
of the 'information I have described abova ve:Aa*--. able, it woul d still1 not be enough to ea ~u~tphas and execute programs, to apply resources with Kdct* able results. There are more v stn
employment and market conditions tli~ tee. Asptn -.dy of knowledge .can accommodate. Undek a
it is dif ficult for a prime sos i
ment in developing this kind of statitv. datw are not reasonably :certain at the. ottthat twl
enable us to realize concrete agg6 ntsis#......
The state of the art is aiml.,".,:lktidacd:: and the investment in research smlsias mm
thing which clearly should ,be,:d~~vly..,rw

1 7@ i iiii~iiiiiii i~iiiii~ i iiiii
iiii iiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiitiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiliispiiak iii,
impossible:ifirianyilocaliprime.isponsori:to justifyith
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii of CE A f n s f r u tr e t t s l a a y isiiiiiiii~iiliiiiiiiiiiiii wheniithose:iifundsiimightiioiiherwiseii:beiiuiiii-directlyi for~ employment Or for training stipends or similar programs @
iiiiiiiiiiii direct paitticipa t benefit.
Therefre, itmight e appopriat for te Com
iiiioi de lop a series of local research models,
inksSIOR ve
.wic r h.Dpaten o Lbr holdf n hos
models~~~...... tht poeto eusfl opim pnsors could thefiberelicte a lcalexenewitou pim s p o n s o r s..............h.a..i..n.g...t.......................................................siiitiiiiiiiiii aiiiiiiiiiiii
th== risii ofiiiiiiiiiiiailiiuiiriiiies .iiii
For exmple, t woul be usful tohave ametho
folt T-Ombiniiidataiiiiiiiiiii-diverseiso rcesiasischoo
.................. fig re ,iti itirco dsipbl c ss st nc ,,,,iiiIIiiiiIIiiiiilii
and"iunemploymentiinsuranceiclaimsialliofiwhichiiiiiabycol e auatdb zpcde h ga oudb

lation,~~~ low. incoeifmilesnumerio yothirinmbe
............................................... F o p l ni
purposes,~~~~~ such esiaeswud rvdesm wyo

updtn 90cnssfgrs hchaeaotalw
noiiiViiiiiiiiiiii=i-'ii to g n e e o m n f s c e h d l g
for..~~~~ ~~ loca us ol eara evc opiesosr ,i
Idd,,.one~~~ thati the..r.........e.......m teirow


There .i = i are..... -.obviouslyii= no simple solutions, as there i i i~ i i i

iisiiniioiisi n g...................................................................
,%&ichiiii catr,,=putH ouruneplyedtowor. Idowan t
stress. An: cosing that lcaliprimeispnsorsineedit

linow .uor ::ab ut re earch metho ologi s, ab ut reion l ifeecs ...and~iii aboutiiiapplyingiiiiresearchiiidataiiitoipro- i Stam planning.iiiiiiiiiinotiexpectiitheifederaliigoviernment
.....:and :usiidata.iiItimakesii'moreiisenseiforiilocal
p,=r..m, sponsori:iiiiiiiiiiiiiiitheiriiiiiiiiatiiiiisediupii
and... ta in ad an a e f ex s i iiiin iiiiiii~iiiii

iiiiiia el hi


MR. ANDERSON: Thank you very me.h, Mr.. us aa.:
Mr Bresenoff one of the questions under'. Vowsideration by the Commission is the paeathble estatlsk ment of an employment and earnings, index :or PtRsb employment index. I just wondered how neefutoo a4
program operator, would find that for year prgam planning, in comparison with more detailed inomton on industry employment or other labor market statisic? I ask that question specifically about New Yor invew of the fact that some industries in New York aem tobe very low wage industries. If, for example,. you .had8-:,a subesployment index which indicated that a large part of the labor market problem, especially for the disadvantaged, was low earnings, how useful weald tbat be
to you in view of the fact that much of the adastag, here -pays low wages?
In essence, I wonder just what the value of a subemployment index would be to -you as a program planner
to try to decide. what types of ef fort should be fuaded under the CETA program?

MR. BREZENOFF: WelL, it is an interestinggaetion with several ramifications. CETA has some fexmbility as a tool and, obviously, we can choose to allkecate the resources toward the underemployed or a egpulation group likely to be underemployed. As -4CETA operator, I am not sure that the subesployment. .adam would be useful in developing projects.. I thin 3* t
would be extremely useful as a financial policy toel.. It would sort of validate impressionistic knowledge. I
think all of us know what the employment situation io in New York. One only has to look at the supplementsl welfare program which goes,: to a great extentt individuals working in these marginal wage itoes n
first, as a policy tool, I think it would bemot*seful simply to highlight underemployment'. is a perhaps, even a more pressing problem to NowYr tham, overall unemployment.
A second relationship to CETA programs,. oihtah you are no doubt aware, is that of CETA plaemeats. Moving, someone from a training or seric sher nt
even a subwage industry conts as a. A pacemt I again, I sort of agree with year0 but::I awBetsre: would be useful for the development of prgasm.uls

telI.mewha topos'bl avid In training

-,ADERON-- Oe the quck uetion. Based on
,4;t~a clletedthoug. pogamopeatons, and other J~normtio.-tat oumigt~hve vaiabe, what is your estxate.of he llgalalin robem n.New York City?
* w oes hataffet yo? Ae thre ny, data at all tj~tTejmit yu t gt ahadleonthat? Are you
Setia~ anthin inyou opeatinalstatistics that &ugstpanyhin abut he eriusnssof that problem

W. BEZEOFF ell I d no hae any data, but pr -ar: litle -tdbis f ifomatonthat drift in.
Tbee ae f~r xamlea. umbr o wht might be descrJ'Peds udesrabe jbs n Nw Yrk hat somehow get
f ileO...Thsearesubag leel obs .The noncertif ie hoe atenantoccpaton s gowig by leaps and bouns. hey re ot crtiied y te state health authritis ad weknowtha, fo temple, welf are recpiets re ot ovig ito hisfield in large
q~bqs, o.. e thnk tey re nt. e suspect that those kndsof jbs re eingfiled>y and large by illgalalinsbutwe o nt hve umers. We have a
lot -of:iestiaiiiibutinoinumbers
CJRMNIETTN Mvig!o t hemiws!r
he'13(itd, taes -ie. Msiw
fm OSOW:Wat uti wehae or earngi

XP aioned anumbr o diferet sugesis
for, ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ii imr==!, tti isthtwud ehlfu oyu
a441, pW r.if,.yu wul lie t ientfy neas1ou

Prqrt..*f:yuhdt cos.oesugsinta

?y '1'W P: yw4 t4. iyofNw.Yrii erso
'J ry S.Ig e, *tt st cs: Wh ch oe. w ud t e

'i'X HO

for that, but at least one is that: a1aigeor.-gubotantial portion of the CETA client population:.:ate som&Awt locally based anyways .1
Secondly, we are going to make soue eff0ft *6 take
a portion of the CETA funds. and. tie them: ', to VertA-n economic development ef fort& 'in area's like::: the. South ft x .. 11
Bronx,. and so on. We do have a network not.paid:.. 3V
CETA, a network of neighborhood service cfttersin the poverty areas which are largely thrown to '',their x 100im devices in job development and placement s*rv1C0_f- atmd so forth, with very little info rmation A. a-tft"M. quence, they end up tripping all over one another., scurrying around to the same potential large employers,
insurance companies and the like. And New Yoi-k continues--though I do not have numbers on my-vie*j
to be a city where there, are a large number, of tively small employers with under a hundred employees scattered around the city, and it would be. useful- to have information on them, where they'are.

MR. MOSKOW: Thank you.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: Back to the Potomac: River And Mr. Carlson.

MR CARLSON: I am impressed by the fact 'that. it takes very little money--perhaps additional information the. t
that has already been collectedooin hat
could use that information? Why has it 'not occiirte'& 9 why don't you take your discretionary funds and set it done?

MR. BREZENOFF: Well, it'is a dif f1cd1t question
1 f
for, me to answer. I am wearing this haV on or a short period of time. So it may be"
Already one happy byproduct of this Coolkissiod, ft: that x 1.
it has caused me to focus on these"issues : 4;p_.twnow I
have just' been concentrating on settl". ltdfitrafts through the local Board of Estimates--but '' now 1. will t t, ny conm
be As we've been developing this' et junction with our Jocal Manpo*oer -PUtnidat:. to;iincill we ve been talking about how ; it"Ikeig t Jb6 1possibli: xn conjunction with BLS or the state ::*em#loyment-setl*ice:':t o do some of this. We will be looking at ito

AQRu doyou, agree that it is relay

a SOpeAe. Bu

$E3ENOW: heca is. something a-round
6600 0. It is true that ag ,.atati. tells me the cost wonld, be modest.

MR0* Do. you.. Keel that it would be objecit~oa ~a t seanoe, including the businessman who has

"tiEN : No, BR I do no t :think that it would
ab -the businessman. I 1 think they
he t atistics usefunl but, I need. to look opte re ent be a reason wh It hasn' t

OR. ,i CARSQL1;: Yes,.


WLL85. Stan, .have you heard of -something
l~al4WtheState occupational Information Coordinating

ae BREZENOFb PE: 9., not: unless they *are the people
NU_':Ao uX11g.-out some- sumaries by labor market AM 9 i4. .a,4 h etter. format for the whole -state by x~jr -oprp~lian..areas. : do not know if.they put it
P*- 0

Iam not even sure whether itis rally moving or even exists in the State of New York, bu Congress, I think about the same time they formed
Cagx as ion. Pa ssed the mnquirelnent that there be a
04cD anl-sCoordinating- -Committee in the 'ago o' f: state '-Satems...*.
J-X~ho~wa" ek eidedt if-it was the when-ite-doubt$01,"" o~thoe saatoe as wbethem or not there might
7.. ..."' b v uk

we geMtional _=femation' that you would
a.. ity of ::N rk, that jor example j~q14 otbe needed" 4an the same- farmat. 'Itr-came, to,-any

mind as I was .reading yousj tabstme waly
think we need a national system one detailed data? If so, what do you think we need at te
natonal labutl that would be, atf fareai ab trs ftwa you aeed io New York Cityft,

MR. BRE2ENOFF: It so clearly sets as apar;ta
is why I tried to focus this, -testimony wne n~~ o infozaation as to .Row 'so possoee4. Becaese afto.4W differences, there will be difeen kinw**-*"~i
different local areas.. Every major area hesa scol drcopeut prob1 .4, but I don't think any: hai t in
thts magnitude. a n fact I4 hope A6 do h i- an t h sase vate as we:. .'It. maay, be :that," we. are~stl gbii hae, and since we just, focused aOn.these isues :ibt frankly, we need to do something more abou A18sd
that we have referred to here. I know that we all feel
very strongly that, we do not know enough abtint, at to do with these high school dropouts relative to what is available out there. Here, in effect, is gamprblem:
You have 40,000 young people who are going to be coming
ont ot high schools -one way or the:-othee, Woefdlly unprepared.. Lay aside the: tremendous 8 ia lt es,
reaching them, and so forth, but what exactly *hbb@8 .e do with them? How should we target them? What makes
sense given what, the. feature *hold& for- N*4Uk -fty or even the present?.- So thirk., my: shesehkwid aswae ats that there. are going to be: regionadife rana. 1C: dif farences -They arwe going to. aks it very- 8t ic for the national government to f ill these data fte8f:. They might be able to show us the way in terms of research models and methodobogies. We ca ways use a fe extra bucks..,

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: Mr. Baeaseso fU:1fUlJ ps ties. You stated out year' stateaeatiyi4 that New York is possibly lo sing.: ail iod1wf,-dlw I amt glad yeu did not spect p :the- eiteut4bt yout suggested the -posththity ef ailin easllt,%-~l say it might be. because af saderuni otovrnans Do you have any reson tonbe38mmuthat: thlds"~ iag 1s worse. in New York than fto Chicago Philaelphis4 or Washington? Therefore, sth&smMne counting, would it, make any dif ference?si,

iEiOFF:-ii -Well,, it would if a certain class
gf.reas awre being undercounted -in a national program.
Itnst be easier to get a handle on unemployment in. a medius-sized or even a small-sized city somewhere in
e a Southwest than it. is. in Chicago, New York,
Ph#4a Ixis,:or Washington. -1I think it isn' t just *fer CETAY4N. ThXere are several pieces of legislation that
have... pplggent rate triggers and,- in fact, there ev .shamax several suaits as I recall f rom af fected states and cities, pa;Laly in the Northeast where the official unemployment rate went down to a point where they were na longer eligible for, certain programs or where the benefits. under those ..programs :were reduced.
t fanaot .Aay With any certainty that undercounting is net at the present uniform throughout the United
- 8 $s. M hunch is that the -individuals living in the South -Bronx.: and, certain kinds of settings are less lik411::, to ,be accurately counted than those people hvng in spplit-level houses outside of Tucson.
BIAT -A RIA;What if I we re to suggest to Ar. Mazanoff,:: that some people who testified rethe Commission presented data that income in
theircounty or city.. is one-half or. one-third of New
City' Is per-capita income. They said they were
la more of. the funds. I am asking you what,
y~p U14tell them?.
GA iiiiiii

o~m 88EENGF: The answer is that: per capita
rAe ,of incose.

HAN BMVITAN: New York- City?

.. ,,-,AERORK: No. I said range of -income between
14we !upra ,of:: oor people and the small number of *- uetlhau they ara tremendously affluent. New York
%,.Maypt be this aspect, but it -is proba more-,.pated here where we have large, numbers ck. pffjs r: elstively af fluent, and trmendously
Ip~ge, aItn~bgriiof vftr. poor,,

ERE I. wish this bell hadn' t ruag
aoul like ...ntiae. ht. Thank an very much i for
Coln =i*iiiiiii

40-U40 '9 .

The next witness is enj Hurry Dortki, de Bf sector of Research and -:Statistics of thhw e 'Yr.'tt Departachtt of Labor. Welcome. "

MR. DORKIN: Iam 'glad to av the' opp'etutyo
be here. I felt the Commissionwas. aJ little o ~fisfitc' trying to use a: bell to stop Mr. 'Bienstodk.- Fdi!'Years he has, gone around the state ,making spAtches fh has own watch which has an alarm. 'He-pays: 'no attei~on to his own watch when the alarm goidsoff.


MR. DORKIN: For- Many years,' employment and unded:
iiiiiiiiiiiii..... z"

ployment estimates for states and localities'we're prepared by the state employment securityy acies USing' the "70-step" or "Harldbook"' pt'ocdr.Une ti
method, the major components were the use-of UI claims data for: measuring unemployment and establlbed nonagricultural 'wage' and salary- reports for' measurthg

Since 1960, the U.S. Department -of 'Labor has 1ir" scribed the methodology to--be followed by the s ated '14 making these es timates Beginning withh "'Januiary' T 91 following the transfer of responsibility .for stat' a40 area labor force statistics from the. Manpower Admini~s" tration to the Bureau of Labor StatJ*ihties ,At6 ne ocedires were designed to bring -coticepts :iita& thods'%rLd in the preparation of state and local estimates into closer alignment with concepts and' meheds'1s in the national CPS survey. This was done. to permit more dcuarate assessment. of 'state and 16cal eeosnts relat ive- to national developments ..*h'h ehdtg provided for, the use of CPS aical datia :-fot larg& states and SMSAs to'detershfine the 't41 oft labor fofeia total employment "and unemployment. *igthede toe1
iiiii.i .. .........

as benchmarks, monthly dhita on employmet. were'eketpot, lated each year by using month"-toth triehds Wek1 ed from establishment reports of employers, .whi le unemployment was projected using estimates basze~d Sn the "andbook," or "70-step"' procedures!.


Inp ase ,af annual. average CPS ,data for benchmarknarsgltee4 in substantial ,revisions in state -and area pbished data. The CPS. sample was expanded in 1976 to
provide all states with unemployment estimates which met a.,mntipum standard. of reliability- -that the annual avera& o, would be within 1 0 percent of. the true rate, two,,ahances out of three.
Data published by BLS for the year 1976 shows the
extent to .whi-ch state unemployment rates based on the "Hand) qok." method. differed from CPS levels. Differences ranged from a decrease of 2. 1 percentage points a bode Island, to an increase of 2.4 percentage points
*a,,ae Mexico.. In 22 states the difference was 1 perrestage: point or more. The substantial revisions in egipy 'of the states 'created real problems in light of thgir impact on the allocation of funds under various aede -al. grams.
In :Prer to" reduce the extent of the year-end revisaggs ain the state-.and area unemployment estimates, revised procedures were introduced effective with the January 1978 estimates. Under the new procedures, mpathig labor force and unemployment estimates in New York., nine other states, New York City and the Los Aaggles-Long Beach Metropolitan Area are based directly
as. the CPS.:, BLS determined that the monthly CPS estimat"p .for.. these states and areas were sufficiently eliable. for direct use..
Unfortunately, BLS: standard of reliability leaves alot -o room ,for error and this has caused real prob1 paS iq.. )1ew _ork,. in attempting to use the data for a anesia aalyses.
L have prepared several charts which illutrate our problems with the direct use of CPS data.
Chm. I. ppae 0.98 employment with nonagricult al agrell,:aggloyment. You will note the divergence .;: th: two. series in. the last two and one-half years wit the GPS series showing employment at a much higher
asyl4, .The nnagricultural employment data shown on thact have been benabatasked to total counts Xepr~td1-byemloer r subject te the UI law. They are 14 bsed, paRES.. aggale -reporters under the BLS 790 icpul4 I ang a downward biag .
2A or So p York -City and .2B for Balance. of Sttecom ase CPS total unemployment with unemployment

claims in terms of their relative change sii 1975
recession. You will note' in both chartis' tb- =-nint gap in the two series with CPS unemployment a'ac
higher level.
Chart 3k shows CPS* aneaptoyment eaths .NWYork
State for the years 1976 and 1977. Yo tl'ot6:.the two years show no consistency in the aca Aly sonal
movements An examinAtion of Chart 3B s un t e
ployment rates based on the "H4andbook" mehd. for: the same years and there is consistency in n' dthly
seasonal movements.
The problem of using monthly CPS data::o Na ork City is brought :out in Charts 4A an8d' 4B. M nathly unemployment rates based on -CPS in Chat 4A app "and down like a yo-yo with the seasonal moveme nt it 1976 showing no relation to those in 1977,.' BY tontsthe "Handbook" estimates in Chart QB show simiar no anW!-ts
ink the two years. '-Since 1970 the monthly moeens of CPS and the "Handbook" estimates were" c-stite
directions half of the time.
Our problem is' that the CPS ben~c~hma i. obenchmark. The BI.S standard of reliability is sh:that aonth -toonth chance fluctuations limit the ueulness
of the data for economic analysis. The New -ok: State CPS sample consists of 4,800 households with 2,e .100
in New York City. The sample was never deined 'to yield reliable monthly estimates. The prole Is
aggravated in New York State since we are madted to use the monthly CPS data for New York Cty -o aive at a Balance of State total to which the nHandok esti-*
mates for areas outside of New York Cit m :::econ-tfW
ciled. Thus, the bad data for New York Ciy:eult in bad data for the Balance of -State._0N
In 10 of the last 15 months the autit fctor applied to the area "Handbook" states o plbyaent to ake them add to the Balance of 8tt:o Al wa's in excess of +20 percent.:
I believe that the problems rselting heomuse
of inadequate CPS bencharks are such as to jutdy the additional funding required to thecre'ase tea b~iaility
of the estimates to more acceptabl:. ever In the
meantime, the direct :use of: menthy. 1 PS: daePB Newr York City should be abadoed. MuhWeb are -Ab i eeded

2 7i@iiiii~iiiii iii

to~~~~~~... devlo mehdstiipoviheqalt o hecm ponents'of the "0isieiiiethodoloyiwhich reiweak
; e e ar p r m a i l th e= fo l low in g : i i !iiiiiiii~iiii
.1.UIClams Caim dtaforloalares ro vie sld as frmesuin neplymn
amngexe~iece wrkrsan te etod
incrpratd n he 70ste" roedue o prtt godjo n stmain os-ehasto joblessness BL hasiiiiiiii i~iiiii made'i so e p o r s iiiiiiiiiiiiii imrvigth uaiy fth lim data to HNN

weakest component of the unemployment estimate.. If local estimates of unemployment are goi ng to depend on the. "70-step," then it is
imporant hat geate empasisieigienit
d e v e l o piiiigiiiiiiiiiiiiiiitiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
entan-rentan uempoyen. Oe os iiiiiii

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who delay iling or nver fileiaclaim. Th
Stuie cndctd n he190s
4. Noarrcltrl arolKpoyet.Tis
series providesiiitheimosticomprehensiveiiinformationiiavailableiionicurrentiiemploymentiiby
s t a t eiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii provideliicurrentiiinformationiiforiiconverting i
residence~~~ ~ !i an t liiat ua obodes

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iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieiiiiieiiiii for iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiilo caliiireaiis.iTieiiiiiiiiiiiithii
component may be large enough in New York to
seriously distort 'the employment znd u ew
mehd ehp oia euiy rcrs
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CHAIRMANiiiiiiiiiMr.iioiiiiithankiyou.'iforia veryipiovocativeitaiiment.ii1initiiithat youi'havei preparedistatementithatiweidoinot have. With your
permision wewliiv@ope o h LSrpesna
tiii i vesitatiarihereaiiialiciiBLSiepresntatieiwh iislsiiiiiiiiieihopeithaiiiiiiiilicommentioniyou
ver prvctv bevtos
........................ D or!n y ou...........................
ami slwn onig n mntu o7 e.Wet

evrImnin7!tpIse epegtsae. Te
iiiiiii thiiii i nkiIiamigongitoiiecteiit, andtheyidointiiiiii t
iiii simpleiiiiiithaniiiiitheiiii70 stepsii ...
You ar.. ligintrs.fNe.ok..yan~
iiiiiibalanceiiiiiiiiii ............ theiistiie.iYeiiiieiEiiireiiStatiihas ........
lotiiiiiieibilinieiifistit.iForieconimicipolicy pur
iiiiiiiii posesiiiiiiiiiiiiiii ............ wella foriteiparicularalloction oifund
iii iniNewiiYorkiiState, howiifariidownidoiiyou haveiito: go ini iiiiiiii orderiiiiiiiiiiii to...ocat the unds
ii~ ~ R DORIN Wel wit repc totii th 70ii iiiH -steps, i iiiii i iiiiii iii
iii aniiimportant add-onii to the claimsii data for buildingiiiiii up
iii toitotaliunemploymentiiisitheiestimateiiforientiantsiaii
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiaiiiiiiiianiiiits.-N= iii I=Hi ........... th t tiic m o e t isoia o
importanceiintheitotaliunmployment esimate..If.yo
iijust workiwithitheiclaimsidataiyouiwouldiiiiiisiiig a
iiiiiiiv e ryiiiiiiiiii i m p o r t a n ........................................
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiC H A I R M ANiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiotihiiiiiiiiiisiiiiiiiiiii ioiii iiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiii wiiiiii i i t h .....................................................
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iiiiiiHaveiiyouiieveripreparediiisimilariidataitoiiyourilillusiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiin u m b e r siiiiiiiiiiiiiliii



Uatil a eee the information,, we are unable to do the., analysis. But we pla. I e, and we certainly *are going to investigate the-possibility of simplifying the 70-step procedure with the use of the components which we thpane really major in terms of measuring overall nemalogggat.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: Mr. Moskov, since you were. eace part of this do you want to start?

-MR., MOSKOW: I. was just wondering. The Chairman said he. was..going to have these charts and the written statement submitted .to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Was this already done?

MR. DOSKIN: No. This was completed just before I ,left Albany. I plan to. As a matter of fact, it has not been distributed to the Commission.,

CHAIBMAN.LEVITAN:; That is why I said it. We will senAdit.tof course.

a B MOSKOW: We will be interested to see the pesponse that you get, and also some explanation for the. diversiqn.. that is shown here. I have no other questions .


MR.. DORKIM: If you want me to answer your .ques9n on..,.0OICC I can... We do have an SOICC of fice in NeyYor. Ve have a technical comittee representing an I:,.7.~ the Labor Department and the Education
went orkag with the members of the SOICC.Ou
firsh.: mebwa -to preare an inventory of all labor "rketinfespotion available in the two departments. I ges it is moving along, although the funding for seial: research projects- is a problem. NOICC has mpo. fr search, but does not have;, permission to

S ,Just let. ae add a gestion to that.
Do'J~kphik at. tbae S..QICC .mechanism caan. be. a .viable

readarch mechanism for suM 'Whfugs eas talking about earlier, without b ving to watow soe national guidance?

MR. DARRIN: I thin New York Jtaeve
moving ahead if we never had an 80ICC. The legislature in New York passed a bill mandating coordination betwen the Labor Department .and- the Edaeation 86pMrtaest with respect to the dissemintion of labor arkhas information. The Education Department provides ns with mailing lists and we see that anyone interested in this information gets it. 'With 80100 coatay ::it th picture, they are pretty suck taking over thes 8Aoiao* tion of this function.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: You are really the firat persea testifying before this Commission that has made specific recommendations. You mentioned social security. Yea did not add tax information. Same
pedple testified in Washington that it atight Wh another viable source oef good administrative labor market Fdata. How do you answer the charge that part of the problem with UIi that there are obviously different standards
and .different waiting: periods? Wedo, noaV standards on labor insurance. How can yeo ub .. mkthosbe adjustments without the utilization of CPST

MR. DORKIN: San1 Blaustein in his astwl for
Upjohn indicates that there is no apparent association
between state statutory provisions and insured une ployment rate. So that duration,- benefit -asounts, and 8tistualification provisions have littif a tfect.- Statei that are liberal in their qualifying requiem a r the most part provide shorter duration. Var otln. h duration among states can be taken care of b develop* ing improved methods for estimating surial rsffe exhaus tees .

MR. ANBERSON: Mr. Dorkin, I feed yoket chato e.a
interesting, and it is a clear illustrate ea UBb diversion between data sources. I have two questions I v66ld like to ask you. There..sees to be e:roe~ comes patibility 'between these two adries 'util the VbhaugEY


of the rLs ssion.'. of 1975 and the subsequent recovery. That: 'tertaiirly raises: a question of whet-her the severity :of that recession and some of the public responses to it through a variety of programs, the extensloit:of public service'employment rate, the extent f -unaimployment, employment,, and all the rest, might have had: some effect on labor markets that would produce these differences. I guess what I would hope is that the response to your paper from the BLS would give some attention to what was happening in labor markets during that-time that might help explain:-this. I would
I ik4 to cbme back to your respective responsibility in theState Department of Labor and ask you what propor tion dof the total budget of that department is devoted to the_ C'10114&ction of analyses of data, labor analysis datji?

MR41 DORKIN: We have about 120 positions in our department f inanced through labor market information funds.., This imcludes the occupational employment statistieb program, the LAUS estimates, the current d"loysWitt statistics, labor turnover programs, and the ow.upational employment program. We have as part Of
-our labor market information program' labor market
:analysts -located throughout the state who are on the sPot to provide iftformation locally to prime sponsors and other users. Our total LM1 budget is a little over $2 mill3"L an

M. ANDERSON-. Let me comment on that in a slightly:: different.. Vay. Part of your activity, I gather, is
fed&ral fundswhich pass to the state. Is

C:.5 j L.Itmi:'V DORKIN:: That is correct.

ANDERSON: How much has the state increased i*d: funding of data collect*on and.:analysis as compared
-in funds to the :gtate- -, f rom the f ederal
unient-T. The.. reason I ask that -question is that I
*hod vto, widerstand and,:I want to have an understanding of just what state and local communities are prepared to do to help themselves support data collec n bind

40-194 0 'TO 4

analysis, as compared with~having the fedamal ager*ment greatly increasing the amount eot funds devoted, to this purpose.
MR. DORKIN-: The New York State Department.,: at Labor, Division of Research~and. Statistics,. has a. total of 335 positions, of which 250.- are federally handed.


MR. CARLSON: My question really is similar te the
one Bernie has brought up. Let ,ae carry that. a-litske bit further. There are two aspects of it. isat, .1as
Bernie has .mentioned, evidently the city and now the state has not had as one of their priorities to greatly increase their funds to collect data for purposes thish. may be unique to the state or as part of a larger data base. I was 'concerned about the priority that, the state -places on data collection, because itaP*E that it could be very helpful to. you -to hame better data collected and financed, by the state and by the City of New York. Is it worth collecting? And gg It is worth collecting, why wasn' t it collected and vaa seems to be the inhibiting factor here?.

MR,. DORKIN: With respect to, Myi codes fon'estab-p lishments in New York City, called for eyrlies, now have in our computer zip codes for al l entahlishments, so that we have taken steps to provide this. Now, with respect to :the collection of. better data :on labor force, employment, and unemployment,. wae are-:pre-: cluded from doing our own survey. Sufo lk Comnty has used CETA money to conduct a survey to. doen employment and unemployment in Suffolk County- I am sure that they will come up with. Giffemant-as eates than under the BLS procedure. For us to go out and conduct our on household survey tr the eMta wud be. very costly and BLS. would not accept the f iguas ThM survey must he done by BLS and according to Mi8 asdures. The interviewer have to be federal a just do not have the option to candact: ou.on.8 surveys. .. ...


MR CARLSON: I en-understand the need f or some standardization for national purposes, but do you feel that it. has 'gone so far that it has inhibited innits* tient

MR ORKIN: To a very large extent, I believe it bas..Ae are not free to deviate at all without requesting the regional office for permission to make a deviation from the accepted procedure. Then after justifis..ation and a great deal of delays, we are told we can or cannot make the applications that are necessary.

_..MR.-CARLSON: Would it be helpful to have a little me: agecification for national purposes than to have a
apa sa.' that has to be piggybacked for data, that would
ft..their needs, that they would pay for which would son hei as costly so that you would have some sort of censistency among this data?

MR. DORKIN: We piggyback with BLS on wage surveys which, they conduct in New York. We provide state funds
1fs '$he taulusion of some extra areas in their annual survey of professional, administrative, technical, and cherical pay in New York. This augments the sample so
be t~ha N.ew Yark data are reliable for use in collective bargaining. With respect to unemployment, it aih he well to have one estimate for allocation purPose ad another estimate which would have validity for emc analysis.

CARMAN EEVITANV I believe we are running behind
-scedue-. 'e kept you, and I appreciate all this help.
L 8.a Wondering if I could impose upon you- for
*omehin 1:aske4 you earlier?*
e:...CrFJ-swhat about siaplifying the 70-step method ,W41mkn t aphe 69 or 68 steps? Secondly, to what
1-:-f goermsent can you designate this data in :t~ge~luse ins within the state? Let' s say the
fed'r~l- ament entrusts the state with a bundle of 48MY~ g i s t to ese of the prime sponsors. Then wb4A~o vkoudo with the alance of State? I wonder if
ea ayou toar do some homework and give us
an iearbe ha pn eald de.

iiiiiii~iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiil4 2
NewiYorkitateiiiiiiicountie.iCaniyouiiii @it an allocatoniofifund-basedionihe politicliiirueiur

thtw hv it ont aa Frte loatoso
funsianyiiiiiteiiprtmntifCoiereiouti bae noedto te dt ht-ol emd
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii tiiii
US)iIithinkiitiwouldibeiextremely,:ihelpful.iiiiiiiiiyo v e r y m u c h.
We will take -a ten minute break..
(Weepn heewsatn!iuebek
CHAIRMANiiiiiiiiiiiOuriiiiitiwitiiisiisiMiiiiisemaryiScanln.i,,Weihveijustihard fromiheifedera levelitheitate levelianditheiloalilevelioiiiiiiiin......................... N o w w e.................................r e a
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii i

MS SCNO:Takyu prcaeteopr
iiiiiiituniiiiiii i tyitiieiheribiiiiiiiu today
iiMyinameiisiRosemaryiScanlon.iIiamiSenioriiioioi miii i stiioriiiiiialiR seiiihiiiiiiPla ningiiiiiiiiips
metDprmn f h otAtoit!fNwYr n
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiN ew Jersey
............... b e t e i n f o rm....u...................... c on
cernsiletieibrieflyiketchifor yu :the raneii) iiiii
int e re st s.iOiianiogii ngib asiiiweimiitirich angeiia n

an adueapcso h e okCtinrgoa

economy. We ar lorsonil o rpaig:hr
.............................. .............................
thiiiiiilii isiiiiiiiiiiita lylip ndetiiiih:iiiiii -*

regonl ndnaioaldaa mj r oiiienal
daa roucngagncesatth fdealaniiitiive'o

the, economy
sharp ic decl'ne of this
:4ee4dt has highlighted the critical need for the most bdsic. t*pes ,of 'information. : For. example, between 1970 sh&.:19-77- "n6nagricultfaral employment in the 17-county regionAeclineid 'by 5.4 percent. In New York City this 6V16"*ht de:elin6' measured 15.2 percent. Preliminary 1976 Cenigus- estimates suggest that population in the IT-o-ecounty:'. area has contracted by 2.7 percent, and by &ki:6 :petcent: In New York City. This decline represents A Odrafttiic change for- the City and regional economy, yet dUe, to revisions, confusion in methodology, and iAad*4uate information, we do not know: (a) who has 1eftthe region; (b) what precisely has happened to our
Atbdt. force; (c), what has happened to the industry and Accupational match of our residents versus our comskuttAg workers; and (d) due to revisions and changes in
te6niCal :.approach-, we do not even have an adequate time "ries of unemployment levels and unemployment

rates.throughout this decade.
In short, we do not have the most basic data available to analyze the most fundamental labor force
trands, vf, the 1970s. We need to know the magnitude of .,.shrinkage of the City's and region's labor force and the I characteristics of that shrinkage by age and sex group, and by geographic displacement in the region.
With so many basic data gaps at hand, I am almost
reluctant to suggest more detailed information needs. We do not knov enough about the unemployed, especially
id liw.-New'Jersey sector of the region--who are they?
Sge and sex group? by occupation? by industry Affiliaition? by location: of res'31dence vs. location of pmvious job?,.Iength of tiae uAemployed?
We need to have much more timely data on employJlllmw_ by..
class of worker. Here the most critical gap for many years has been information on the selftWoyed Our studies suggest that there have been
in' this group during the
11970%t* ..number: of wage and salary jobs has
4"Ujwdil tkerw :has been a significant increase in the S*U"M Oyed 0 are left--the loft dwellers of
StbOATkese are gainful not to be found in
OW vultural: data base
r.Fimlly, permit me to stress the need for adequate


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ofinewientrie toitheilaboiforce.,i.,teiiiiiiiiiii
shrinkageioithiiteeiageiaboriiorceiiiiiiiiiiihav better information at the regional level of thq! b anges
iiiii iniiiiiiiiirtiiiaioniiiiiiiiiii-ik owiireio
iaboutitheidynamicsiofiturnoveriiiiiiiijobimarketian iitheiimplicationsiforilaboriforceiabsorption iiriiib
iiiiiithiiiiiiiiii isiimiihaiiim.iiiiiiii.
Iieaiiitatmypiasfiiirebaicinoratin appearitiiiiieitirieiiiitiiiiexiiicimeni.,iiiiiiiiiiii iiiii i mporantiiistesiiiceiiain thiiramiiciiiiv
The natonaiprfilsipoduidiyiteiBreaioi.iLbo
................................................................... .. i
ofithe macroievents, butitheinationalidata:inotia
guiiiiiiii i det te cane eten aniihiieios.i"Ti
iiiii iswhere theidrmaihas been, adithis isiwhee.i!ou
iiiiii i nformationiibaseiis theiweakest.

MR.iCiRiSiNiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiliriiuiitiiniiaiiie ..................................................nit h.............
ieoftePrAuhrtaciiyth irAuhrt
than migtibiprducdiwenipopliarilokii.iA
MS.iiCANLON:iiiiiinkiiithiniiiiiiiiiable:. iiiiil

backiwithiCPS soithatifirsiyou.idecide whetheriiiii4
iiiiii iniiiiiiiiiiiiiiyiiiiigiiiiiiidiiiiiiiiiil


Weiassesse w he, radistribution income .argument seems ntto apply too strongly to the federal government an fer a system that really -is only serving the
P~es:,,of a btever-al county. operations

88 iii: Yes, in general, would agree -with
gata J ust stress, it is just not a problem hak.,the Genetasian-on Employment and Unemployment Statistical jO ia in a msvearea, in terms of ;the amb Yoi oplew lliing Lo wirk, and how they move vatrMtavcs an. T here .are .times -when I1 feel we are pushapp subsidizing very detailed data for a. very small metropolitan area. A problem was pointed out that eomeb pne icelenated that they knew on the day of bhe senses, .of April 1970 -of a boy who crossed into the aetropolitan area ,of Wichita, but we didn' t -know. Our cosputer showed the split in several SMSAs which is not
q.1,pex -.good conceptual basis.. It was 1977 before we had As :ainsste.,hasip kind of information. So I think in.s t e -taken into :consideration. Also, you X~ljadera n to8hat in this area we are very sensitive A~n-0 ho subsidizes. We have. all this new -information

m :ANIDERSON Ca you -please tell me what -is ea : by, Mbo h~t dllae~s of,* S-oho? I am not familiar

Ms. SVAMO- ,he.-loft dwellers of Soheo are one of
temost interesting phenomena of the 1970s where a dlrt r as& area .in lower: New York, -tower Manhattan, b&0*bea.4xdud ythreed over and completely- renovated
.A.:asi ial s endpoint. Many of these people are
aftikta phtographe rsqk what :have: y..O What I bas i:.
ca~c cu~der to, be self-employed. as sure they
bov Aaovhekm p lm hose numbers any more t ban Times
Yon have listed .8 Jas number of item*~a efr lih o dthd -ie, tP have anformaton. I
frquently yeu awoud new ab.,tat kind, of ihereatteeasivfor example, 'theeaaIe.rumetyi peld .yes need that: more


often than once a year for-tbe planning:&rpotesvof-)th* Port Authorityl
.. ... ......
MS SCANLON:, I would say-again I alft."beilM.'Veky realistic and thinking what costs may develop in the delivery of this-I would p.refer. to s4y:: aore precise data twice 'a year or quarterly than monthly.. ..:We--pr*-o duce a semi-rannual report to the committee, :,when6ver-it is warranted., which- is frequently recently, but I as sure it Is a tradeoff._-,between costs:.verijus. what-Ve need. I think we have to -be rea lit tic. about::: vhat S'" lieed in tefts of when we need-it.: .....

MR. ANDERSON: You d'd -inditate that you have,.some comm nts on the illegal alien issue. I wonder if you wanted to say a word-or two about that.MS. SCANLON: Yes. I -would like: to commenti because many questions have come pourng, through oui office on this in the last three or four yearw.,, InAay opinion, this issue has become the red -herring of 'our ,decade., Nothing in the %data that exists, however inadequate our data may be, would indicate th*t there would be 1.3 to 1.5 million illegal aliens, which is
the implication. Did we know, of courte' that.'there was an undercount in the 1970 Census? Yes. But I
really think this is a-"red herring" issue.

MR. CARLSON: Youmean it is overstated?MS. S CANLON: Oh. yes but the criew we r*
voiced during the very steep and very, I"g depression of the 1870s. Maybe there is more.of a currmt-problem
in the Texas-California border with. Abe migrant workers4 I think the real question 'is-, from aw-economic standpoint, thedynamics of the labor market llversus dkd cost of employing labor. One canmake a VOry:Kgood ,cas*
that increases in- the social security tax IMiLse the cost, of empLoyment, at a time when theid. 4* still a large number of unemployed. The same:: coUl&lbie. *aid theA
from an economic standpoint on. j .
specif ically where -we have in K this- arth sUVh:.,&:c:K.i j.&,.r.Xe volume of teenage workers in the o central t ciltiez:,,.. :: I It


ems to me when the cost of employment goes out of propor ion to- the emplo' er, then you get some lopsided hidden unemployment, and this has to be considered. ....Thatis the real question; not illegal aliens.

M R. ANDERSON: I think we have to be as precise as .we can about that. Have you conducted a-study of the impact of minimum wage on the youth unemployment?

MS. SCANLON: W are watching it carefully. Whether we will be able to produce a formal study depends on the data. One of the critical questions we are. 4sk i g-ini the task force on regional and economic atblvelopitkAt is, will our future labor-force be a detriment 7,46r .An asset to economic development? It will be a criti 'cal: question when you look out through the next decad&. 'Whether we will be doing that precise testing
.am Sure.

M..'I 'MOSKOW: I found your testimony very interest.:Ingo I should add, though I am from Chicago I am from ..this- area originally. Why does the Port Authority of New Yoft need data on employment or hidden unemployment for th eijt own plans9.,MS. SCANLON: Well, I would say, looking at it
just from the traffic crossing the George Washington ..Bridgi6::.46r AM, Lincoln Tunnel, this may not seem evi: :Ve are a team of economists. demographers, iiiwtidldgi.sts, statisticians. 'From our standpoint, we
Aftd:- to kn6w ai much as possible about the economy of
r6ti6n. Probably MY director is not going to be .4wkiag me questions on. hidden unemployment, but he Attaunwa that:we have: done. all of that work and that we of detail depends on the extent k .4f isotift-c* planning,,that is associated with, e.g., lqng-,! range- transportation needs. Detail may be important now. for the new project we have underway, the pdmtibAityl bf setting. up inner-city industrial parks. Tttiire uwm?'Are looking at a very specific geographic area within: a specific borough or township. There we need very h$Lghly specific information on labor force. I do AW'expetttbo Comission to worry about tho'se specific needs.

MR.iiiiiii:iHiw larie..iaigioipidoisiiieiPart
...............................................i c s ? .
MS. SCNLON: e arenow aieamioieight, but
monitor the whole spectrumi of the regional economy.
MR. MiSiOW: Eigt professionals MS.SCALON Ye. Tat oesnotincde abo
analysisiiiiiii~iii tha would ..eatce oor!~an idepartment.iiiiN i~
MR............ iiiO : Ye I s umiiu ae a kiiab u
theieginal conmiciabo fore-tpe dcisonT.I a
...................................................................... ........... ..n
thi araiuio etil reakyue f. h
sistc.Yuieomedto ol b oepn h
iiiiii~i prH~iii i maryiystemiand ouia soireognizdiiraeiff
betee cotadtedtawihyuwul egtig
Whatikindioficosts would b involvediinithe expansio
iiithatiiiyouiiiare callingiiiiifori
MS.iSCANLN:iThatiIdoinotikow. I.:_iaipii no
studiiiiiiiiiiedta.Iwud ehpyt e noydA t
................................................................ ...........e
chaeihnsatn n.etrl e ytm
iiiiiMR.iiiiiiiiiIiidoinotiknow. but I thinkiiiihaii the iiicost is something that we are obviously concerneAiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii~i about.iSinceyouimentiondithat the Prt Aqthorit miii igiiiii h t ewlig opy pr f h ot a. sro

iito put into it
MSiSANONiIthnkwehait cnsde t
breakdownsiiiiiiiiiiii fo h 2 onis f-h NwJre
iii York, Connecticut metropolitan area
MR.iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieifiiiiase ~ tb!Li


ce bef~nd* us and actually said they would be willing t6pay soe' portion of the cost. Usually people view artistic's as a free good,- and they are not willing to pay 'for iht at all. I am- pleased to see that the Port Authority ould:: be willing to 'make some payments as a user. itWeald be very helpful for us if we had some ballpark estimates.

:MS 0SANLON: I could not possibly give you that tgil had'sbee idea of- what current costs are.

MR. HOSKOW:- I am sure we could provide you with some of that information.'


"a. WILLS:: Just, quickly, what other kinds of id~mit r time data do you use, and how do you think it 189d e-improved? For example, congressional inforeatiotI formation, school information- -there Isa
weatb f other researces that I assume you do use. Do
... .....

11filikthat we, as a Commission, can address th xj~roVeat of these resources?

-S.ESANEON:. We use all of the information from to aensus, the Bureau of the Census, the quinquennial
88 eYTun'better not get me started on what has bag 4~e to the-..retail sales data. We have no idea what retail sales in this area are in this year as compard t this time last year, and it becomes a critical fikeoa uso the social security work history data.
%f6.E.o ookathe tax data. We do look at school data,
Ss' a or of fact, in the long-range planning, wie
*fft be o agi at it very carefully from inner-city **i i tuta e uo~ties The social security work
is r 46t potentially a very good source of
Wo~li~ue: pe cis y fer worker migration. What I' d
;1 abe a :See is better detail of the labor
dat:..:to..beable to match with -establishment data.
Peroua 1eme data is very important. I would be
0116hd Usee' that arrive moen quickly. It is also i~ort.a o have, especially for this decade, sose
O"Ourmof diposable, after-tax inceae.


CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: You suggested your major coa#tion was the expansion of the CPS. I can.. see that.. the existence of the CPS might be adequate for Your PUr-.' poses concerning the whole region. But you also....111= tioned before that you wanted subregionaL 404,. Wouldn't that require too, big. a sample in terms of th cost to your organization? Are you willing to say.the Port Authority will contribute to the cost? Also, we
are talking about cost to the government in-collecting it. What about the cost to the indivdiuals. who are bothered with all sorts of questions that somebody in
either Washington or the Port Authority wants? .. These people may not want to be bothered. Have you considered that factor also?

MS. SCANLON: I think it would depend on how much we would have to enlarge the sample in order to gain better data. And I think that perhaps it's.a,,:dodbliAg
or tripling of the sample that'is required. I taot
think that we are always going to be able.... to kq9w everything that we want to know right dowu:to thplarit detail. I am not so sure that is what is necessary, but that is not what we are talking about,.,:.,,.,We are talking about data gaps that are so wide at the moment,
so massive, that it becomes pointless, to discuss the very small fine points of what you may need..., A tripling of the sample seems reasonable. I cannot:imagine that is going to become a social problem,

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: Ms. Scanlon, as you may have heard, since we are college professors, we always. ask for some homework. Do you think that you could give the Commission an estimate? Could you prepare an:estimate of the kind of sampling you want1for your 4 coun.7. ties? And we might be able to provide yousome of the figures. I think we could have ballpark fi pres abou cost. Then would you give us some estimate.' cost that you are, estimating without: sigp.*n the check for the collection of additional data9

MS. SCANLON: I do not 4n Rarear 04 able question.


BBA I I0AN EVITAN: hope not. :The second -questi~d. timatto, as you may be one other factor about twe~dloOO s*ya uggesited before that minimum wage is ap~a6a 1causeh for the ris

-OS 0 : Mr. Chairman, can I interrupt for a momet? f there is one .subject that I think the ComAis~ionsheald not even discuss or consider, it is the 4dei onof the impact of minimum wage on youth unem.' I think it is just way over our mandate, ad 1 Iti"t tink we should waste the time of the Commbisson.

4MIMAN -EVITAN: Since Mr. Moskow objects, we
*11qro-tat question. -Thank you very much. We wil
heai~fan yoiten?

-_4S: CANLON: Yes .

CHAIMANEV'ITAN: Thank you very much.
:v~ltxtwe1l hear from Calvin Pressley who is the
o:toe New York Opportulnities IndustrializationCener.
Re~eend Pressley, proceed please.


"'!:HR,,MSUY*::As an administrator of just one 'New
YOW ityhuhat'-esource 'development program, I -must
y that I am: genuinely humbled to. be ARVdd ,y an to be in the presence of, such giants "eait 4drld:'. (And 1. note happily that the t~misoit: noludes representatives from both the ivery 4. ebony several.) 'Bb~t I rationalize my presence ftbd x y b: he:.recognition that cultivating the jarft '16 eplomeet opportunity must be a cooperative afor ze8frteefe ivy-covered
bt::'atiel and toopertiv*ely in touch with
the ,,kaa 'oo s an only in that way can degrees
abbhievemnt wnd expertise be brought


to ea uonthevayigiegees: oi'ee: otiii*nth
stets ethrbote eri uiro ni.I-ol
beisaidto have"green humbs.ibx4..ieihave on bee
iiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii .....
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiid ,iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinii requistion fr thekinds f tool y]o]- [Comissio
iiiiiishouldiiiii beiiiiiproviding.iiiiiii=
Th tosialino w cteoie:daarelct.
iiiiiiiiiiiiiiictual andireal con ition of structural uiei iiiiiiiiiiandidataiprojectingiiactual andirealiliboi
marketineeds ndilong-termfutureilabor arketixequir iiiiiiiiiiiiiiie n t s.iiiiiiiiiii
iiTheiBureauiofiLabor Statistics dutifullyiicollects iiii monthlyidata, counting increasesi andii decrgasesiiin the iiiiiiiiIinumberofipoplemploediarkiniupwrdiiiiiiiiwar
....................... t e d ii unempl yment perce tages, therey........l

skthn antoa epomn aduepoyetpo

ile Lieeeynees ocendwt epomn
iiimattersiIireadisuchimonthly reports w.............
iiiiprofile sketchedidoes.inotireflect.iitheiiaces.: of neediI
seeiiiiiiiiiii evrdycmn.trxg h or fNwYr I
iiiiandioutiinitheistreets.iThe lasti profile ias-ih t ....
iiiismiling faceiiproclaimingiiiai6ipercenti national unem-N
p""""''"'"'""''lomn fiue th loet i he -n --afyas

iiiiButithe faces I saw initheiexercise of my daily duties

wereinoti-smiling, and they would be surprisedito lear iiiithatiithingsi haveiiigotten soiiimuchiibetter.N iiiiiiTheireasoniiforitheiiclear dichotomyiibetweeniiwhat I iiiiread andiwhatiIiseeiisisimple. Iiiamilookingiatia difiiiiferentirealityithanithoseiwhoicompile officialiiktiiistiii icsiheirelokniaiati ndree ao
iiiimarketiparticipationiandiIiamisiiiititieineeds:,iofiiike iiiistructurallyiiiiiiiiiyiiiiiiTiii are coiuniiiiiiiiiiiempliidd iiiiandiithe unemployediii members ofi a ratherii rarefully andiii
riiliiindlao akt n Ia elnwt
profiiiiithoseiwoiareinoionlyiiiiiloiediii:!ibu......" iiiiiiiiiithoseiforiwhmiparticipationiin th
foc sadsatmmrwotruhdsorgml
andirebuff have remvedithemselves.iifom:iofiiii*i st=k 1 iiiiicairelevanciTheifaesiIiseeiiriiit mil gz
mattrihwiwdiiieiiinthe offiiaiiiiiiic-

P~fal:: the:tavstattecs -ga hered do not'clearf and
feeas -I on the: needs and potentialities
crt :he wtseveraly structurally unemployed, they'are Na even appropwite--te&&s in the garden'o
humh'Vdbasc dvelopment.
under, the impression that -statistics as gate rd-bay-a9re primarily guesswork and. assumption, 4 orse sa1y. worse because I am--still bothered by dite addltded in an 'editorial in Adherent, a profeasional journal of human resource development publigh d y the, tOI Exective 'Directors -Association. MB) Us 1975 g"the President- of the United States was poaecij a 7 to .7.5- pe-rcent: unemployment figure by eetio day_<1976.: The B-ournate of Commerce, calculated tha oeois mali'se iif igure weald be in the neighbor-,
h&6 w 1-.peieent.
heJournal of. Commerce' asked an independent
eo~tr;.. r. Albr saa'anmmnt on its forecast.
ndeet followns
N, se Y.r it Iwuid put the unemployment rate at
f p~jcn 1.:the, f ind quarter of -1976. But no one
*oxil ve: adr,, so. .1 fake and put it at 8.5 percent.
fe it, mo one would take mne seriously.
Butoter.,, !-! aking t a lot more to -get the enemFb er r~e-, dovn: to a 7.5 range. If the ajor foreC~tt'n ( ervic& did not fahe it 'and published rates of
whic are consistent with what is expected
f~r~i4VNVand pre activity,*'their forecasts would be,
da ene, wealt ::ny-rtheir; services:'
that10.tre, as sight paraphase the old VISTA
slogn bysaying that if statisticians are not part of t~xffkk nmngpagant solution, ,they will find -thembe art of, the unempl oyment problem-that "is,,

Ubethm,-tey are consciously doctored or, not,
sta~tis Ad" sefs be .reflect a cultural myopia on the
d thse^- wAb are doing: the counting; which means, -cwseythe ::,on, the close at, Band .and: readily
Ae;ab 5 to a r ees, and: to despairing faces
he t, u~ll uesployed are beyond the scope of

biass' ad 6As temptionis of:: the : vtams-the soVes.-

The only way to deal with. such s.,yopia, is to .pro vid e an instrument of ..corrective yision 'thMe laitoce aseded for corrective. vision_: would.' be- truly Epe tentative. f ield staf f ;a staf f equipped. t):o o et into. the field to test assumptions,:-.and. to ..see if statistics. are a true representation and. reflection.-of the 9unm ployment conditions in. compacted cmuiis bifocal field staff, in other words,,:weald see. both near and far; both. the ofiilprofile: aadi*the.. reaL faces of need.
Alongside a representative, bifocal -field staf, there is a need to do a scientifit study of a,. randomF samipling of employable welfare. recipients.- There::i:s :A. need to find out, using the best, scientific-:and.
research tools,. the actual. availability of -Ielfare recipients for the labor market. There is a need ,.for scientific research rather than punitive: .make -work programs. The,, concept of making. welfare recipet earn their dole should be replaced by a..well-seetarched effort to find out how they,, can earA their: b~read.
Such a scientific study should cleazry: tate the: objective criteria for employment; andt.shudfn out the actual current conditions- of a random sampling of welfare recipients in terms of fitting.2into the eristing Ilar market. The determination oft the t* tf rent conditions of the random sampling would-. include:. their desire to work, their, current :employability skills and what is needed: to :impart .suchI-gkillsAto those who lack them .:and. the. available.O and. sep supportive services needed to assist welfare ver'9pients in entering the work force.
In A climate where so many people speak glibly -of welfare .cheaters and loafers, of lazy', ,:shiftless, immoral burdens to the taxpayers, the Commision: anedsr to once-and-for-all provide scientifir. anwers. t sncr assumptions. Is the: negative image of welfare recipients based upon fact or fantasy?. I~s their :present can-.dition of: dependency the resnLt of choice qr:*.. circumstance? Is dependency .,a preferred .status:. or an i':Ines" capable condition? Is the society responsible.K for. the

so seemingly: deplores? A careful rmandm -sample: study ncouldrovinde the ansmuwe.

A 9g96.. linentioning f4 two aegories otol.Th
6 i4"~tg is th o1eto fsatistical data
with:rgro urn labor market needs and future
j4td,~ ong ffer eeds'. And: f o1r such data to be
Wif~itols, -data' collection must employ -a well-known TA, pit tk i and' concet I "am referring to targeting.
94s' 'olldti~ ust be targeted,' on 'threefrns
1. I mst- be targeted with the structurally
S~gioddi Aiid. Therefore, data- coll ected conthrding: Qurrent_ -and future labor-market needs must' also.
.have classroom training and 1on-the-job training needs.
and asibilities in mind.

2. -Data. must' be- clearly, targeted in terms of
d611at-'itt''labor market' nedds, so that training 96tft to miy" 'b~e designed aid implemented to serve real Ai& d-'tn'eeds., If the targeting -data does not have
this dual focus, training efforts become cousins to
fiblcM' ervi'e *programs, with the structurally' unem'oyeid befOlbg trained for entry-level, temporary jobs,
Leading 'to' an, exacerbation 'of despair' when those jobs
3S Data 4ust be targeted in terms of local and
.,gra hic labot market needs' and possib-ilities.. This 14 speiallyA .true for' compacted communities where the
vel6f-ddsairis igest and nthe ned f or trainn
eit.n ''4nng ftor-the structurally unemployed in
6wihte A o omunities simply- must :be based upon a
11 'fit A n d en lightened -future labor market. projechon e"k ed 'in -i6ach specific locale.
iii atto.los& by tha king the Commission for
41pttag this requisitin' f rom' a: humble tiller of the
7And:' ok frward toanwseason of growth and
tio' 'k te ratss"root~s garden where the seeds of
iat1e are $iag choked: by ..the 'weeds and thorns of
algu~d hnttiva tion. Thank you.
All@M IflAN: Takyou vrmuh. Ms. WillIS?
Thanki ........u

WIL t I am a lititi bit confdtsed when you
4e ,talking about twtopoints. One, I assume that wor Is edetidit that peofte ftkom Census do 4ot
rp i 1 tdims of blacks
Wn. ie a t collecting statistics for

the Current %Population. Survey .,J q gyg 4i'S
true. I o no have anyJfpjt,s op that,-.AagA you do. That is onqesti r. 1:ana
Secondly, in terms.,.of talkn Ipp.(r q .i
the need for more-informatig g teres, ofF ..gFp, A
and occupational classroom traiin a ifray~r aa that really a statistical data. collectopsqen ,
that. a use problem, or Jis,. that, ine3ge:a 4po
priate prolem 'in, terms of how we decide,.w !t .arq .gg

to use our program,,qopey Is thtreal ~a t~
issue, do you think?, C V

MR. PRESSLEY: ..Let .me try17 to ataver: the I fist
question f irs,. JI think that .t;. Ceqsys .da%% ehilq iX does suffer f roa some of thg, same.. probes ofIlqg tion that "the unemployment. data doeds, it..a1oggt"r kind of thing. tow often ,do you get the .cpndu, g
And, yes, the Bureau of the.. Cenglus hp.des improvement ithe kind 'of people. hy ayi ut.

collect the data. BtIdo, not. tiktreally tells us anything about the unemplIoyment in, )
think that the data that Ais. reflected py, th ntpoyment and employment .statistics, ..r o donyil
kind of fa,,ce-to-face, block-y- block Ibasisr *ha. ... .n 'really, give any. indication of, what is, h'gerling... generally find quqt about. youth pmploypma an4.,4441 employment by standing. up,. in front -of m.g. congatp on Bushwick Avenue and. Madisoq, Steet .andf as4q many people have jobs and. looking, at the.iiz 9 people who say they can t contribute' o thedelpet of that service ins tit ton, as" they pal becawaqtey are unemployed. I ride down )Ionroe Srei n, ',
own kind of sampling. I do not nee aboutyh
is unemployed to determine-whether wp opeg up gyggyagto serve the uneaployed ornten. we.i,, program, it is full! So that ind" of data, a T'not
need. But if you' re using data collectn .1, to manage what a particular administration sy bu t
economic pnd/or enqploymeat police the I thy t
should actually'ref lect. What a i.(,. ..a :J*t
The second 'qestin th .th3.3 ag
industry and government Are a4y 0 abo
duplication of effqrt'. My araC y lg o
ioiiai. k

lalhth, pt g*r ill tha t'-aretrih -iag' for jobs that dbn'EC e t.s.*- think -it is a data collection p'foblem Wheitr ,&teydo aot know what companies are going to need. They
kaw:but they don' t want to coklectesnlda,
do seot w -tto make those kinds pfpoecin
h- f 889'khe five or 'ten or 'twenty,'11-W yo u 'abo't thi 8)oy tha "s coll01efteal- with those pans-.' I think' oingto bd responsible tanr d
ft~~~~ rvr Mi 6 te tructurally'. knesiployed, we have the riii~vE~gbliy. o' fi'nd 'out where there 'are i jobs that witIt Okvf or client with opportunities poksibilitAV 'T ti'9 the: oly way, in my judgment, that anyb ~ ~ Ig tag t put fotR any real effort
tat is where It represents a real' oppor-MOSOW:I 'hve just two areas of question.
I ai ,'Intfgue' with --this paragraph on' page 3
'but t his bifocal f ield' staff' and I
4'-fdr'AJ-if yo 5 fed to-. expand that for thefe *;d I~ 0o4,V6ther'* YOU Obre specifically thittking 'of 9r.Ps..who were. not working for government agencies goingout to collect these statistics or whether this "s v:Lto-ft~t~aT to a modify the people who are actually

tlhihk that:the' government hasa
rft06siiliy a-do something about it. I
;eeu o.Cttra dt out, As they dfo now with
's-0W66siit-d A'dreebfrdh -groups, so that it might
eset,:'t6,cdagedi tiie s,' thit they are trying to
&O~nitttA led' V of it t- roditracte8 ont). but
at 't 6 ,,the strongg people; 'at' 16hest in the
0 Aat*0 llkhe" k sinanities --that I am most
Ja=U.&r:w.t~... L tink the 'it hieads to 'have--*6d1itn Awljdgww ,.I'd iketo see parallel. kind af -efforts
W~~theW:,V~a p000 t'tI and + l e'ss manage~o 6fth fatlts connected':with tW, 4 z6 fltgf i~die eliminated if ve' had

MR, V R OV:Th~ wfikbL :contree as to the

government to double..Jcbea .,n hafwo, #xqc kgg
tke 0a a now?... ,, 4 ,-4,y4

MR.' # 08,KOW:_ The. sepa 44y 4lk4.baSg the, Augsyntipl .ngeaptoynt 1gd.udp sg
whiich, you mentioned is a. _jhe 1 opps aghat.4.ggy -AM dealing with On aday- to-day bss.a4 kq.%te 1et(An ciently f rom my. .keolepdge of .016 t Pll*4lhi4 was wondering, if you iwynted to conent-, at .,411 .vay researchers are now cal;Ling. something ie.te."phr' economy; areas. where ..people; are employee but i-pre, o showing up 1nouxr statistics fo1,aa pgost a
a barter-type situation. coqld4, bey ilea.1du they are not reporting it. But there have been Apt, of estimates recently indicating that this is a very large and growing portion of our overall 'ecoQnoug and,4 therefore, a ,Portion of: empl1pyment pps; well, I. wondering ifyou. phought that yeogt Aq.eted g
counting to the, hidden unemployed? , 94. a*v y
extending. .our thinking., to those., woaetbdn saA ment as. well? ... .. *us

M. PRESSLEY::: Remember no-, .we gqrA, tinea igg qP,,5
think, very tenuous kinds of circqppet#anges, ifq noT>ie If you are suggesting that the government is going .tog legitimize.,this in ..the overall,ifconoqy,* .thaq WIptes pared to say yes, then we sought tocut hm *$ki the government is going. to tur4,,;ts.,back,.:ngthp-,m-t of .thp economy and sa4y ,it dgesa't eXis Qor eghAs poses, why are they going. to, count i.we.A ps. AW poor people who, do not have'. j obs in., the, priga4 7Cop if the. government was, cons istent, it .they asp.p;Ltl. GNP stats, te .hy.culd be coain a er 4. $e employment. statistics. qq* well,. A .( ,a.. :,.r ...

MR. ANDERSON:: I, thkthe, Canairpsion.: As ortuaptss Calvin, .to have you cmbefeAand wo*h~ et
views. on, the use of statistics, .ppr on, .ptte
nation' s leading organizations. in: attempting, to es with a wide range of problems: of employability, and I
doing so.,with a great: deal. ofi*succepyj, l#4 4ya *A~cas*


sti d tyoke recommendation for additional aheasdrl& t ou'w-t 1 like to- ,ee,. you "Hid. not mention a meas'de dh~jlas een dI caused as 'possibly aisefol, the
g index _r:a. self -employment ididex.
10 fi., of~i-nM-wether yoff youra Mant to comment on
1 se ofk tha type Af me: w6 'for program a19n .ti!P:b-,? 1sw vAseful would* you find- aneaae th"Ldeit f6r the pupS of deciding wh~, tptiof '-raiding 'programs you might 'want to' proPESSLEI e1, 1 km not sure that it woud
eY iIfd fw -o not attract 'the j-b t h
e"1oV b!eh uat to knew what wass available in
th k~f~i I kconiarnmty in terms of: wage per job, that kiad t ti Ad :Ithink that' s what you are making
to. It. woun' t be .very, helpful 'unless we hI-iSdk!4tes to 'ht labber market and had some kind a e he- 'ny 'ay w e will havre
adcw'6s t ,hse6 ",jobs: is fo0r them to be expanded or for tm f ftlttiWT etion: that the: government has estab-' ihe toe really take hold so 'that minorities and oersaa take advantage of the jobs.

MR6 ARE N: Have"'on considered hAving your
s fffI ?je-bii~t :ofthe -available administrative EW data or data eoi establishment edob~itt At ipol tibIesoutce Iof additional informal
eb rait progias, or hv o
f t4el, reub~iIy oir te BLS Eurrent Populdtida Survey

-MR RE SSLY IM6 The BS ahfert Popuilation Sur~y41to sometimes gets us in trouble. Let me give YdUI'i~RA 6kkpl# b w't. 'tea. e' worked out an arrngee~t with the I819:V6 PhoratIIbiato, deve'lup a couainU. a aIntestHrem community.

aksieedtowrk ith 010 for the training and developAM 6: fhe* a A a:prisot effort. We 4,4ift tb cWe6 eh6.'that they detein-ed
OMM ~ as:4 ftWhIf: 66r teI kg 7: necessary. Theth were

programmers ll over a1-tt nse,..pfderal, and/or .state aciy so fy pret
prassers,. ,. Well, using Xhe*Fl.a ato but a~ apph 5r. of zapritie4,,he Z--,,ip. thlat pay.. of,: ths,, lahol, arket ,, po;,w~i ap*; a I
lot of. the: cop"eias fin J~ i#pYp .~t ~4fPP1 qIa
the area. of .compter program A;OMotr~ q auch kagpuagh-bosause that e a
job-,-but, a lot o4f these ,~ apLpK t 2a
equal employment opportunity -plans nfo#. aI or-*
ties in this area. We have alwys oe aed the
number, of pxogrageers ,and .the nmbr o:peorewha t th~ey igitially,,planned to .phasy-xgw ai" asr sAd
that'.s. beep ,hagnig noe fqp Uri oh City of New.York, -n So I cite: that-v 95 tta
e, have gotten, became of-u PA oe aticwa it th
business. community. at a, lot of.- lempis, to help, iq some of their equal -eagloyment opportai lano.>fewg
them,, and .make saggestions. how they hge
and. updated and., that kin4 of ,thkXng., So&_,hm some of that.:. Rather than taking. a natoatg* fo
data, working and focusing locally >*.CHAIRMAN I.EVITAN: I would like to conne with Mr. Anderson' s .first. question:, In _epaWto 1his: gapstion, opqu talked kout empj ~oa )-ateg adequarpy and: econosip hardsh4,pU rellp dVat ye would,, be interested- in. the people, wbhe,,:o and who. ,,are barely. makin: a :, in pn st
interested p jaoisupp .kiqd.,of An pa d1 -A aday -eto many persons in the .labor market are worig but Are not making a minimum, decent living, % Ic I ol
define ata least a poyerty level A4

MR. PRESLY1; What jwoqld 1:do, a ha
try to convipce, popl to. ange tt

CHAIWP, I ,My(V1.F.8 p

MR. PEBSSLEY: I a loy.cqcro Vtt**U,~
ment data.I:.I already: toldvS40 .1 dea't believe it %wen: see. tera-0:X:Alif"I


m~mtneeds some me ods~ue "to sy' things about it. I do ntbelieve whea they print that in the NwYork Times.
v-e*,:iVi~i I.lagh. 'That 'is what' half of the part,
_oflthta is-'about. 'I1 am' sorry' I did A' t say

GRAAMA I 18'AR: Wel1, if you are a 'nonbeliever,
.wydo npua:talk about it?

.Pl SiGE: Well, all I am suggesting is that I donos:eed that know that we need--to do some0 ~64 t 'tra ink :the "structurallyueplyd

CMIRAN LEVITAN: I see. Well, thank you'' very

IR. CART.SOS: Jist one question. -Do you think the dobtax credit proposed by the Administration- last week willhelp the stkdeitnatly aneployed?

i;M*Bw MSHEV? ''I heard about that. *If, indeed, ahB iii j act, there is some way to monitor the honest hasinessmen of this country, it might work.
MR.CARSQ he absDepartment would give the
centificationt 6tq iso 3tel :igible."..Accoydi-ng to the
anonemf te '6 g1ibxi it would be. determined by
to a de If would'have nothi gt owt
a ibi at be deterariseA by bus ines's. .

S'treAd -that far, but being a no~litek 16ut'ted 'i lfty to- 'etermine eligibility,
and W: i~iVaVb1 6_ rto ea er fen ce to determine *he
44fibiuf~ tor~m .and whd' 'isn't, I a not very
optiAUU4 ~ ~ ~ 't Afbi~ i: 'i~~ -se^' a means of testAilt, t' c afortS$e about that in
Bd~eit t r.,'it ,busine's' Ii indis try.

CHAO AM AM:A'.Tm*,you Wa~ey anuc for your
elouet:ataemat Iappreciate it ver tiek.
idso dU1e.i Dr t est: *agreed to, *and t' kd z&64i a oweyond:
vtie e wil cno adjoura until 1:30.

(Whreupon, a luncheon recess was taken.)

AFTERNOON,-S6ESIN,, 1."52I .se
CHARRIAN tEVITAN We W ll eq e th I ax g
T he fisVitness is. Dr. APhe. 0'$Airosgtoggy p a Planning. and Research of the NwJersey -Department.4pfy Labor and Industry. ...
Dr.. O'Neal, I am delighted -that.,yon..eargakgjof f frbsm your more important duties. .,.4.. ..*,.,..

DR. O'NEAL:, I appreciate you haviag, -e. Tak you) Mr. Chairman.. .,,... *
I have a paper. that, was, not.,finiphed VAtt t#i.,morning, and I wish I had stopped it yesterday. I
would not have been -so long.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: You have 15 minutes to saw -s all, and you can have. a .-court case, oqLht. -.4

DR. O'NL I Ithink yu have, cpi eq.

CHAIRMAN LEV ITAN: Yes s..Youre .co lae agae
sent will be part of the record. ... .F.


STATEMENT Or ARTHUR-0 '1A0.1. ..t:y,

MR. O'.NEAL:,. Mfy name is Arthur 0 1lAyd a
here, Mr. Chairman, to give you onp statqrit paraq&cltigg.a on the Lo'cal Area Unemployment Staytist4sp ,(LAUS) pgo* ,; gram administered by the U.S. Bureas.,q oL4)or ptygiatics in c o nation ,with t e S a eE p o a g e u b agencies. Asjpirector of PlanngadRpar, foir thgn New Jeray Department of-Labor and,144uty, 4 tsi
responsib ilities is to administer thsprogree within the State of New Jersey., I sappec er this La pagrapity
to express my views. .1 ,...*x..0 t.
At the outset, I wo4ld i4k.esa he
ston that. I cons ider. _;Velf a;lg~h fr~qq e5 SI.S...t
iiiiiit iiiO [L

a u ppbrt the tateffedera l ~cooperative
U~pitin labod arket and other -econdmt
sh is the only way 6rkotic 6s. so essential if the data are to be
1 taingfed~taiE resentek- to areas oest -in

Ihuh m y~eak will be critical--sa I believe
teComm ission will be hearing more of the,-same -from e is~ ta te representatives s -they are" intended- to be
conttctie.Myobjectives and those of;.m colleagues
f bthP sttes re 'delitical 'to those of BLS:topo
deeth'best' po'ss ible, state and area statistics for ecohoic analysis and' policymaking.
Unfrtuatey, e-ave a-onway to go. Let meb% I byV diskhauising our statewide estimates of labor, f i ce,- :employment, and unemployment .
e av nve r had fully satis factory statewidestatisflick unddr the eLAUS program, but in my view the siaktion took 'a serious turn for the worse in January. That "vas w-heni, BLS:, decided for the first time to place
sol reianc 6n the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS in New Jersey and nine other states.'
2n cntrast to the previously-used method, which fodled a blend of annual average CPS benchmarks and 0,hpl ~pet insurance -Ats and other data-to track 4tit-tb-#6ith 'chifnges, -the monthly CPS yield employ-, alehi ?nd: 'Uintployme~nt' statistics that fluctuate di~t 4ally ald' nonsenisically. Figures -rele'alsed by BLS & 'at several anaiths: haVe confused: the public,
Mrker tadrm~edthe credibility of labor statisticsin general, and turned federal fund allocations into, a* diider: whkat the CPS told us About the New Jersey
n'oy'* duin 'the first,: quarter "of this year. Ed iditstI: the -CPS, "ema.ploymecnt in New Jersey dropped #4y IsharplA 8tr-i'ng* Jainary,, February and March, after 4*'4ding draddtieallyodiaring 1977 to a record high in er'OAn 8'4seasnal Ia-djusted- basis,, the -threetIlh iedih@ totaled 159,j00011 whichA Ist literally ,of ('edd4i on" toprton. A-jb 1'ess of, this magnitude. 4 4 Adrally .. be acco anied,' by an therease of Anearly PP& effigw- ysfiesin the istatte's unemployment rate

abopt .5 .percent of th4e, stqate,'s joba ,4yet tre-ot period, v the .CPS as sured- svhe.ecoPW was.1 eY8 getting. better. There was,.: sharp drol in .the sq sapsonally adjusted: LP uneply .a. rate. 4yu ,. p
in December to 6.3 percent in March! Since 213,
people vanished f rom New Jerpey'-s,.. labor ,gr,1: we 48 :' t -veed those job.anyhow. .....
,These figures. are,: of .copr"se, a.nepe ,Rg
BLS Coumnissioner- Herb Bienstock: was, recentlY. Rytdt th press as saying: that the-.. anhly, CPA ..ta.., "nepd to be looked at with .a, geapr dal of, tendergeap This could be the underptatement ofthe.: yes;., Actp egmployment in New Jersey in~cre;Aed ..betWeep.k ,Pe pabr and Harch. According to may- DePpartment'; K M. moth@. s Wgyqgf ek more than 7 ,000 New ,Jersey.,.emploera ,., qqdyted API4 operation with BLS, nonfarme wage -aqd 4alary jobs increased by .16,600O over: this, period on sppasoall 4 adjusted basis.. If, 213,000, people. left -4;y Jerspey.'sA lahor force they must have -all- b ,een -.selfet vd domestic and f arm workers, the: .nly.-, workers,.p tAc .C~ee4 by our employer survey., ...
I could spend, the -rest of my al-lotted .tie citing equally implausible trends of CPS. data,:., for examle.a huge 3.3. percentage-. point'A .dpie i .Nweey'* su yn7Pa moment rate. betweenj.ast, 00tpber: #4t.-rght eyh.(fe 9,,A percent tq,. 6.3, percent), despife. :4@414ping.Pp10. ri meitover the -same period. .BuAtthe,; m Saticanq~i althe examples -t might -wyat to. h. J$Fl% gp
NwJersey Economic ladicators that ap. pn .-t
t is testimony,,.1 .*. :. .1I..,.,.
BLS may consider it unfair of me -,to.Jtc9 ,h
.1otight .on erratic ff actuations.of teetkstc
BS- has been open about. the.: limitationS ..g',f the,,_ata sitics, which inr-New Jersey ar, baiged on ampWsawy ofonly: 1,780. .households of .which. rogls150,t atually: interviewed in any gives .eonth,,..Thy A.4,a S ling. Iva riaaces ca re, a., Matter .f 4. recpr4 A .ag~ ainal labor market analyst .should know eyeg)

,B., sanaumties" contracts,, building prss
as interporations. aWhy then .SOV41.J.,ma ath hig -deal '-abut erratic f lu tubUq", jm, pnthy,-aber force, and unemployment staT ,,;JW far7 last b%.tree: reasons. Iht h
-coditonedb view the unemptoyent r VbC.1..easure of :,the,. iatios or an .:area? S
w --eing I is sdimplycnot inthe same c146g a.-:co t o -ads or: retail sales. The latest: rvowh1 men -rdte fr the nation is released by
BUIw~htsea -fafare and ialong'with counterpart ...1igre ox ;,.aagea and local' areas, becomes the A~pfqpgr-to dfian.eda the street, Feasnt just econosi,, upd: with_ sampling variance tables and
to sopute sax or-samonth movn
..... .... r hoasch BLS o r th state employment
eatu tinhe public about the La ,T tee... figures, i is a -safe bet that
CYTY4L xsuad a agine thd fn(and success) I
swtid4, av r ad.,lst fall, trying o explata, just prior Aow(* ereyls-gubratrsial election,. that a bzg hd_ state..' unemployed 'ate during the
lf.Atol b e- igniordd because it was probably

pnoasl of dollars of federal fuandce
e~li-,.yar:* te. basis ofstate and 16cal t ai'this includes fu Os for
t~riaig-:..PubAcservice jobs:, publics works im.eryc-i 1 fscal assistane and the
wbleo, &rr..Y f V~sitave avail Me to labor surplus
wros. nde te Pbli,,Wors, n&Econdent ,:Develdpadat
,A~joti~deet,.~catac~iteersh:: isawgeted to high u~~cavl~~ymmtM -Oa.And i-otesh ways; unemployment ,0 i .voftd~ rd .'n oher- MS eal, policy dedf,fm~so:in om a ses. there also are adtaha Soute counties ad litaamgdagc* gt srchanged ad:others ancauef: sriso fluctatn o Tf

thre.,antd 4 wte -.,ays ae matiadg

unemploymentf, There. -is, Aaaiaeedp too UvW a : ,ztafteftjt&V Sys tem, so s ub.d e ot.- to e rza ti e i beha*iaert. Is fubt% Wif Uc; a better way, untilJ:BLS zh Wd. -the .4 rulew ii&Ja nb4W, That methodused
vey estimates as benchmarkka" but tracked 64"AOiA) month changes
meat insurance,.-Cla AdmittedW,'-ther*av*rd 4r^1k"q with. that method atttibutahle:"Ito statistictV effor" the annual CPS,- benchmarks andlto sAwrtkoia1*s::441Ahe. formulas used to e-stimate -month.*-totimonth*eX&nge 9.4,,".:.Mlo method needed improvement, but- 11:,i db necessaryto totally, -abandon: it as ,I M, has -idii;"':. .tiL*::,!111::,: ... case of Newe, Jersey- and nine otheT. largw gates 4 :.vill
BLS..abandoned. the old. metho&-*beea4se1the i-1W*tC
embarrassed, over- the:. past. .;two,:. yea rs,,N. byo theL ivieede f6r"
large, annual benchmark, revisions,* lna many- stausl&ffhij... attributed all of the problems to errors in tht Maq _V estimating, procedures, -Conveiiiebtly kgnioriiij 44w;jfact that errors in the, annual CPS benchma-rks:,,theai1v*8:a undoubtedly- were: a contributing factor,4 annual CPS estimates havenow. been-dleverly Aidaelt .64j view in- at least -ten, states 'since the. ubeflofv"nUklylts C S data, rules.,... ,orut -the.,: need foT ,an]OL'41::,
There, undoubtedly., %were problema. with. 1onthlya..62ti4 ... ...
mating procedures Auring 1976: e4nd 19-77L.:: The lioatd*JjQ#5 suggests that there was a conservativewbijW to: lthgfn many, eafk....KOPO* 'ap&
monthly employment estimates i _1h
tbLg duration.. of, unemploymentnt, amon une"1bywentt11A9Mt4.,.4 ance exhaustees- was In thesw'LO"t6s.r*8..h
they came out of recession. jg., Hpwever4i iV.:trOMWW1q
me that instead of trying to identify; emdi repair 'those 4. defect&,: BLS has simply,., condemned -.the clotmlpo U"d e4tiwat3i ng procedures. to the. scrap pfl*- A-A -J.-NJi:
In.-the Fripcess: we., have -lost
time,, series For. :,all. -iU : IimitatiQns ethw #MW40W method yielded motithlyt Astatistic. tracked well-with athex. economiclijidiviWrsi- N*"lvw" could measure cyclical., turning---points iaxt q"xitW changes f rom one. period. to,: another, fW1hjWJ:tb&jAO*4FL2-1 recent year Is. 4ata, may have beea 4Wky*e4ot, ta Aomd::: AM*rOr4 everything was,. revised once with annual CPS data. We then had AA.UsUk.ric"law"111, series with which,..we couLd)beireasonaklyficomfortWble:, -

exte- of- -Course to the extent that the" annual CPS benchmarks themselves were subject to statistical, J' . ... immediate
. .... TA rpurzullftg. directly with BLS our
obJ6VtiVt*_+t-6 !,get :them to rollback. their, -decisionto ,80 on tht monthly.-CPS fox New Jersey statewide
but, 1-1 e- v e n -term
estimates if:.we succeed with, this short
ObjettiV6 will not be _sAtisf ied. No method currentY fea'sibliz, will.,yield estimates sufficiently accurate. to meet the awesome demands now placed upon them. ,,If "emplor*ftt statistics,,- are to, the basis -for allotatdjffrmzs1ve: amounts, of -federal f unds,,. we nee, d to put mu& mbte. re "AUreOs and creative effort into this proWw'!iS .,a::verr substantial expansion of the CPS semple Aiaf al I states in order to increase the accuracy of1,,as61=Lb.,1%_nchmar'ks. How muclh:.of expansion depends hC"t/accuracy tradeoffs that can only be resolved b-y-...Xohgre;ss- and federal agencies responsible for allocatd*, funds. We obviously will never, be. able to afford Perfection, bxit clearly, we. must develop more adauthte dat4i -tbAn-..:we, -have, today I -would like to see R-Wttar, Ake: Census Bureau, present to the Commission a L a &ccuracy tradeof f s that might lead to
9(W& discussion of the -matter.
-.i:J"This. should be. coupled: with quality control studiesirby the::, Census Bureau to ensure that there are aa%, ,.geographiical. bi,"ew. attributable.- to response error, sawpalwji:.!!; :, des ign:, or: Hopefully such
Ah r factors
0 e
tudkiesiv ax&,, alroady :being. done, but if they are the xesults 1ave not filtered down to ,my. level. If we are 'to CPS. .:.:,data.-. ta'establish state-by-state controdslp- tftwt clearly is,; necess&ry .-to minimize. .both Lexror- and- -statistical bias..
methodological research.-should simlitanno"ly be: undertake by. BLS with the assisgtMVcw:o1otN _...stat-es.4 th.trefine for measuring between.' beschma rk, periods. BLS b""?(Au"dy 4.A tiM:- .11 a.,,.: great deel.., of atteat iou. to improViagg the: unemployment insurance claims statistics provided Ifunds to the
sta*"It-f or.17.10do4inpur -:should
pose. Pa'rticul-ar emphasis
...taivetha& :rof estimating unemployment

insuanc, exausteesand ne. ftmtrnts te te

Though I have concentrated up to. nonsae* figuarea, ithe probl etes that. Lhave un h't~.-enk* affect all sabareas of .New aersey. WIi*pbcoe1o estimates *f or sunseakg %are "ontoled t h:s~~~ totals. When the: statewide aiue-.:u na. ... ically, these 'f luctuations riple, ontve 1

vidual, anicipatities,.... -4 k
We also have anothdr .problem itdt 8
reatly based to.'disaggregate-the statemide aigrear *n the state' s 16 labor market areas We.. m~et: to
fact that BLS requires us to use simplistic neens arlsha re" or "claimantl-share!! aethods- twe mtimabarag a -y ment and .unemployment i for three ab m ..arktw-tioAsc.. parts of 4-i.nrsse:. &wStanam Muetroolan -SA~aAA km Areas (SMSAs) For -the remaining.- conties wei .uv t~ traditional "Aa- tep. method. The: asham -L...::As de,
methods can cause statistical- diatortion .and:. ud" inegaities-among areas -within New Jerseyw..:jft r104,L
-At present we rare, vening- the cesksif,-&r
for .counties in interstateq. SMSAme. :,Ou -,neithberaga

Wilmington, and Allentown-Easton-Bethlches SMAs;haw :
the traditional,. 70-step methers. Then,;' hazed nee: an. quated relationships f rom the .1970 Odnau, ant..t
shares of these employment and: aneq pamb b *xtpagpaS
are assigned each meath to the New:ea. mep
counties I don' t think I have, to,:'eaberath wAfi.1 shortcomings of this method.
BLS recognizes the .deficiencies aUtesq~i~ share- method: and has no madae thta:camm'-hr method be used instead an those intestate both states have accurate uneap .oymat isas e...a compiled on a -place: of residences hasit. Ilas&

accurate southly chaias date 4on Nv.Merws edaett f W iln clim: in the saes we v M be- shf :#Mv
to this method. -n .*
The staias-share. method: von seem i.ta wlxa&s .. improvement siace -t -uses. at leati som ad data. However, it: still inva mos-teMnso Ma K

y as far- as I am concerned. In ,arriving at, the claimant shares used to allocate an-,' SMGW.Zs: 'tpaperienced unemployed" among the component ccpaUez we necessarily must, combine claims from two diffe rxent:. unemploymentl insurance systems. This :could re*alt; 44,-a disp:raportionate allotaticin.of this comto count es within the stati wiothc--the. ;miore', liberal unemployment 'compensation pro

Tht i.c1aixajat!-f share method is also flawed by% t-he hi&ly iwrtificial methoft-.?used to estimate other labor force --id*mWonents.., The new and,- reentrant component ofunJeMP1ayv1enV,, is estimated simply: on the basis of each count-ph9.9ercentage of-the population in."the 14-19 year ag&,-,brvcketfat thetize of the"1970 Census. Employment
iLs-i-Alocat6d strictly on )the basis of the latest popu-lati-oi....-Jestimates: the: component counties.: Put Y the employment/population ratio is the same.-for-,all ebunties, which implicitly and arbitrarily econemic..conditions are also identical.
lnappropriatie allocations of employment and anemp among, Ozomponent : countl e s ofAnterstate SMSAs
cavaVt c.cause one state to gain av the: expense of the other This is because all labor market area f figure
arla. ,inltimately_ controlled to independent statewide
However:,, distorted estimates for 'these counties will affect intrastate unemployment allocations and'. --rould cau's-61, inequities"under federal funding pro9 r
We- have* been pressing BLS to permit New Jersey to ust'..4 a f:,i vaift.rut-method, of estimating labar f orce and un0*19Y."W"i-the 70... step method- -throughout the state., TMA.4ma.y 'pradtical in all:.states, but there, is
no,3j*cftd -..4easoa, 4hy 461 ;Jersey should' be denied the oppeciLunity, Aa A.ckiiw*_r intrastate ,convistency, simply beckase At 1w not ;rpracticil 'sokewher-,6 else,-.-- We 'are:: coewtrainedi 1yh the: stAtewide ;- elstimatet, f romi,.
"s4wal1AgPv.,",? unp4loyed:. p eople.J: :f row ng out; neighbori
Aacie -ibelbwaTe. and + nusylva-nx& com6;*,, through
iitb ft-garlF. vh 4ew/ jekiiky, vesidental: filing claims. Ln those states, we will have the claiarr- data: and estab- -reztiiFAtes.::: nqPessarY _tW ProdU##umfi4We&v).,.foqr1 tbesj6>-jcQuAties t-usring the 70'. 'p


method that.,-aill be jus ass good asxhsepodcdo the state's other 16. to a ies%,.
Labor maret ttsic.. beo **-o;L;.1* '.
woald be laughahle if theyweent m*foalmit
huge amounts of federal funds aBL8:omspo p auiu
Shiskin -.has called -=thew ?random: ubA febt~
s.I ~ ~~~ 41 1 B

claimant-share method once uneploment caim dat
be generated .on a muniLcipaltp-b.y**eaniniLpign bis.
While this may have. the, irtuel af itou ig1b
"hard" numbers .into the calcataions, .thesre~v., aD danger that this nemethod: will: anae .namployques a.b.. underestiated in one cities since: the propoqti4 MAd the:, unemlyed ,who-_ collect- hl eedin tends-*o zbet smaller :in_ cities than in the sububimh .As 1.a ine method w~ill allocate too much e mp n r~ try .:te:mciiebecause of the unreaitic assmption th mpymw E population ratios are .the same in- well -.of a: -ou~y auaici.palities. This will furt her i c aus es andlomt rates in?.4he cities to: be underestIaeth..

municipality estimates, .but I believe. -thi, matem. should be studied ,closely by the Semmissies.-I we.a#-, as...
to properly target -aid.: to ear depressed. eitiesji-.e a men such. better -data than is now available to. .mm .. Wa problems. 1: r w
The final point: T. -woud like to. addres i eitd need to strengthen the role of the states in the MRS' : program. This .could greatly multiply the- toaets devoted to methodol ogical research: and. impeanrement af local area statistics. .-At present, smethodos eialN research and preparation of terhadowl.:.panamumme do 1theinl exclusive domain of the national BLS "fie.. TeI agencies are. expected to .,fllweste tios base
been provided with: either the! resopros n. .massvatiet .to.:hwbilod an. orteshaeali as-. ptitt ; instruction follgeing:, -.capabilities%. Wphyh8e invest what -,HS Le4 esemneestwe. hamew: imetabdo~gtb1 research if our. proposals- are- -d' to be igowdO rejected eat of hand? J j ..e _: J
Though :1. oppose a the: meth":acxrmt3Jh et
recegaise that .in, ta saefedema: apabea SW as


necewilaril :., 4ifid*e the.- Altifitate authority amtthods, ,of Aigalgregating: the iiati onls labor -force and une"Ployment'ifito state-by-'state.-control figures.' This:'
is the only.: way to e"ure uniformity and equityi -Howe0d r, v.,:,oice atitd-by-,state controls have 'been estaba state employment- security"'a eV listed, th4i. : iiftdiv-idu 1 9
cies should:: be given some latitude in the choice of mwthads disag#ega.tiftg within the states. They
&.lio 'sh(WA- be- eacotrraged td e 'p erimient with new mkethods:Tad tefin,6ments. 1: BLS -may bei surprised: to 'see whit 44*v ebatribut'im, the- state could make if given' the enconiftem6dt- tb do s6....
:.zfTkAOk- ou, Mr ChA:rrman,1

Labo r Fofce ahd Unemployment Statistics," Koo Jqr se Etonomil c 1-ndi captors , April' 28, 1978.
ArtbVr: J. t,"Uneihplo ment- Ei9timating Mtthods
"Pt'"I'46w ,"tgey; Ecoftoilic Indicators MiWoh,, 3 ".19 7


..... . ..... I
j J ,



fll, 1) %) CV.,:. 4 i
74JJ t:,t dj

M.. P

;0 f
ji tmti t%::T: t iu c) V.: a

.CHAIRMAN I.EVITAX: Than on~lf .rAw 1
suggested, year col late as sopy vie the record, and -we will seed...i aBi ~
they send us, we will seendyou a: copy Nt....
Mr. Hoskew,, since yon have editdt~ty come -from the Garden. State,, why idond, o,,sat..

MR. MOSKOW: 1was. asr:plasd ohmr- qi
testimony, Dr... O'iealI wats aey, ter tn: particularly like the: anagesteon yuaonp ..
have this matr ix .of cost/ accuracy tadenU .::,M i lead to some more informed diseaussions.,o& a h~wteil.... because I agree with you complaeely: thet bet ov accuracy are important. There are tradeoffs, and it ai
sometimes difficult to explain this to policymakere. But I think the only way you can make ask inforan a ment of,. this. is that< 4qn take.tbr M stepro suagangeat here. I just wanted to. me-ps as IavlidosaAt #as. .. other ,parts. of yp gone song ities. As an raa the State .of .New -Jaesy. wpia: vs y anaA changing from the .70-step. method several yeassag ,Adad had many complaints about that. Now BL8 has.-phanged the method to this monthly series, and yeu. are even more concerned about that. You weud like to go beck Vi
to the method they were using before. Is that earet?

DR. O'NEAL: That is correct. There are really two different stages of our history with BLS. I think the old arguments back in 1974 are probably academic at this point. I think a system utilizing the Current Population Survey is probably here to,..stay, and i the sample is expanded so we have figures at the statewide
level on an annual basis that are reliable enough ad that we are assured are not subject to ian.. I think that is the way to go. In other wnrds:, I support the method that BLS was using to get statewide f igurevlor New Jersey up until January, provided that the:Chrent
Population Survey is expanded and, of course btat the cempanents of the 70"^ e meho ar sujc " research and improvement. I feel this has been neglected in the past.

MR. HOSKOW: Obviously, it Would.- take.: time :::to


ekpan the' ^eimple6, bt you are suggesting they go back
BSth' thrmethod. -atV east on. a short-term basis?

:BR O'EA: That- it correct, that they go back to tht thb-t methodl.

IMINIA LVUSANi 0a- shert-term basis, whit'i
1vaoutl1111W ther" miethod' tha t you thn wol e so ,mth*' official than the- present method- that is.

01MEL: If I cotid jnst refer to the very'
flowg the testimony, there is a chart on
tllt.Va 'Iha ,compares the seasonally adjusted usemr.
plimi~ tatt'basd, :* 40-he: old inethod--by that I mean thttdethd a gin existence until January--and the
Monfil:PS The one that is jagged, the one that is
jUMiiz-r'a1Daor the! place, -is the CPS monthly unemV31 Y~t ...rtfor Ow Serey. The solid lineshwn
theAsoeter:4end: is- the old method unemployment rate
(ys ek-at the trend of a good
0_0*ft d cathrj you usually -find that there is, a
-Ardua tesnd to what is happening in the. economy., I f iid hat Athe* ed methd: -series here correlates, with oh a~e~nom a.i-ndi'cators much better than does the new one,0'I.o fel .-,hat' "he old miehod simply is a better

..44WA)CUSOt':IHunt to -- thank you fo r a very
ihbrmtlelape tladve* ,will look with great interest
pionx, on raised -here.:- But I have no.

i) S WLLS.vI'nyou t* paragraph you ake
r disaggattg withi states. Gorretct ine
seemma 4 ht in some of those UmWtha,44rejas ed::* by aohgtes u tilI zing' -the unemis is 8 that Eas to disagrgt t**ftgwe" 04funds can flow within states. Take, for e ~~Adda~e: shying ad, pubvlec verks, as well as

the GETA progree. How wasl this a aea
with the ULS -andate to ..-evelog anainom--loO.DR. O' NEAL: BUS vill probably be a swer that better than I can, but I see no:. .sIato state-federal family. I do not see why BLS under our
cooperative relationship, couldn' t. delegatet otain amount of decisionaaking Wo the astes, wirotf
posing .that tomorrow we, switch e~ver,. I raa. hso in the last paragraph to suggest some lon-eaw,,diew tions for the program. The point I am realt yn to make here-is that basically what happens arvh peent time .is that, the states are out there. and ..e.get, instructions. We are not reallyl 4s p oasalte bees changes. We are told ve-are annsphd. Fea come to meetings and they make speeches and: h. say, ."Do you have any, questions)." .If yon do not.hv., any questions right then and there,, you: chase been-en sulted. I consider consultation what the: BS pol have been doing for years under other cooperativepo grass--coming down to Trenton and talking ..
talk out a new procedure. We try .it outs. We. a m w~ e) graphs .,We study it. .. .
That has not happened -under, this' proera.: ..
g ive you an illustration if JI cans A coupe of-eaajs: ago a procedure: came down from Washingtan to disaggre-i gate data for CETA. I sensed that it war, i ngiescand::. I objected. And no one was listening. The reginal people listened, but the Washington peape a 8 a t listen. So I finally told my staff. to. go : arRian compute a series using that method.,:.. n t They went back to 1970, and they computed a se'ie mert
five small counties. They found that these counties had an unemployment rate .that declined, -therl asrn
the recession of 1970, 1970 to 1971. It. wt:.eov
zero at the trough of that mrecsion and did- n start to increase matil the eeonoay begant-o improve.: tdd start to turn up when the, aropears soprowedl. o~ax a sent onur g xaps in US .co88and 4.etaiy.9 S sangue& d k instructions... Ther enmen did "khoaledge: tav :V a made our point. But, we vaeisn the~l Maybe that is why, But here is, caase- where: ifte had come down and talked to aus,,. v~onl h -aves aed ..

off a 4eth6ddlbgy,,-wh Itch, the waY9, 'Wag designed
to,..:.:be nused for allocating mi n6 .

CHAIRMAN LEVITAK:, .:..Your statement has disuade'd Mr.
a0kiW any urthe!r- *queftioh-s.-.. b'Ut I''ould lilSe t.t)q -d
ix:.ak .30* same-tthii* I ko M -Dorkin earlier
1 Vvnder whether,,, y6uj would' itare to give to.5,4*LMi"Gomiastio& Sevet-bi,": things%.' First of 'All, we wquld A ikej aty-: siAggd s t ions ybwmay havd t6: s',implify the, 70%st".: -jmvt1%cyd.:. Second, would the 21 counties be' approprTate for distribution of funds? Do,'ou need anydiseSgre int o sm&1 le r areas forpurposes of the
4stritowtion df, funds?
tw.IJW QWAL -Of fhand I do not4ave any recommend Uti6ns: ato Aimake about simplifying 'the : 70-step method.

'LEVITAN:: I thovkht tilat'maybe 'ou could g0j J%k&..,ta1kot6 yo*r,, staff Aiid.'-our staff will b6in' togehrmith you. Dr. Adams, th46"Commisvion's Executive,
D Aaw Vul, be: in touch with you f or 'any father q"lkf i" t n of, mhat. we -are talking about. I hope tlilllvlillll vive us th

D D? NEAL: 1ine,.

-HAIRNW: LIVITAN -..Thank you 'Dr. O'Neal f or 'a very 4,, ver"y interesting and stimulating statement, 'even ifh, BU dods mu6t.,11in& it very encouraging. b1t1,jAun nmt. wttaesst ,: i's Mr., 'Ma=el Bustelo of the Forum".. Mk. Bust6lo?

-a Glit aftelrn6oti, Mr. Chairman. I
MMAWAPolegizeti for,- Vy. voic:LmiD J "am tgettilig 'over verp:...badi;( 4,.. An* "I doii't'lmow h6w long1vill be able

LEVITAKIb Uwr complete 4t4teme'nt will be
,AJW _Ow recoxd and please s umlia rizle in:any way you f jJP& V*j(We**e t.

..... .....


EXECUTIV&D1,UGT0R0,6 -u.,i
MR, BIJSTELO,,: For-yea -the 4a incd3k Peertair
Forum, inc,.-,, has observed t1wdumbers game and like,' all others ..-in gov.prnment,,,,,.,ia, :-.coxwuait)( orgpnization24; ia educationaL. and healf hsyotexsi.. the- XW-,qharW_:-jWen! forced to play. the-number.s... gam itrpelf-Tknter' tebing, i data to support or attack an issue.- a law.,,'. -tan, alloc&,Q tion of.:funds, a concept or a- plau,;-. T:
The very structuring of governmental systems:: W . ...... federal, state, county, city, Xegiona1. comidunity planning districts, congressional districts, assembly
districts, etc., has: long serve d. ,to,..establiih bdundaries, populations geographical areas vhich: :are.94if-#O,: ferent from one another--so that it is virtually impossible to, check the'stati-stics of against those of another.. or. to cumulatively collect..f a -Ameaningful mass of informat*on of value.
The employment-, of one are4 as.a study.., area
another can Jump together various,. elements., Aesizaed Awp reinforcela thesis, or,. thrpugh...,tbe subtx-actioxv a& ,cetro' ".' 4 tain areas or populations in a study area, to refute a thesis. The numbers game can set, -its owA.AcUles*1::.set its own parameters, and pre-set its, own conclusions. This is done all the time, depending is
playing the game, and who, has been called "out.:",.:-.:".
For years, the Puerto Rican, communitye-has 16bii, called "out." :For years :population..: studie& counted whites, blacks, and., "nonwhites.", ot
important. Then studies began to use Spanish surnames
as a measure of Hispanic populations. ft:j-6n16,::-hae,*ver produced the master ..list of surnames.: mhithi (P
those. names are, checked., 411 Puerto L4&zcahs.:: aqre)v named Rivera, Rodriguez or Velez, How iPdeedad14,AAe) J government determine what an Hispanic surname was dr was not? The= there wa a compt oV-,Kexftaji*Ab0_bitAn4, Cubans, 'Puerto Ricaas,,, and otber -Sp;an1shn4e4kift(,q groups, based on census questionn ires whick:: ,v&mi:wsg" ,
and imprecise, and on surnames which were not preciise or accurately assigned to a particular ethnic group.

WhAt. ti-afin Xi4oarnfe?, If 41 lp-ers'dn is r skinned 111*'Spafiii br: as black?
su' i'me like Sullivan
1f3ttt(-Oek#ft "i white, with' rna I hi e*or Hispani'
c? Th 64
'4A6&*hit&"-' AtekUty: repreeftt-6d, a separate group or an OV*1A*Wn9j 16f "'dther- groups. In: .:,niany government stidilogritho 4at-cvisfdtes white,',b1aek, ahd'Putito Rican. Ddea ihA,)Piivrtd, Rican a s6parat6,1study-gtoup,
an overlapping 6f the- 6ther classifications? What I c" of1birth
06ft Mkes' 4 a e
tcj io'n't fta -etc.q
Varanl.'. Puerto kiran', i used-,, 'does 'it include all H14partV2i'W0just Puerto: Ricans? Who, knows?
.41Cdther-cases, data is collectedfrom registrants 4 ir.uhOmpl4ment'benefits:, or fibmlists of registrants for Plazement services of public employment, aigeticie's.
'that Hispanics generally
da:14ibt 19 :::pu.blik ej plby melnt Is.6rVicL in' gbeat-num.bera &V, mady xeat ohs Because manyzHispanics do not work vix'IfouthsfAt a, clip', they often cannot go to th6 :nn69*06yMkt fnsurant e -offices either.: How accurate bated on registration? Do they really count the Hispadit-14otkers oat of work, or'' seek ing Vojtk, or working'at any given timO
7rz. Votcaiitdges ::&r,6 used rather than
i6 inany! cases,
AUb &19 14 10 4i a an i ic i;J kO 6 r e p 1 A ce d i n a ye a r a nd 15 the...:.ftext year, the data would 0 C aikt, t t nt: itieieeaso in Hispanic pldcem6nts-J A.btNMSh:1,,, 6ntf(j,-fiVe..,Aftorri :..' P !ople,,Vere placed. ''This kind of dAOub1ieiw ta 14 "At: uged 'c6nstbtntly to support the tbOdis;A afid:: :: tl&; Aocubtent. progress and -actual nose
&8Vdt93'9tS"jR0:t JIL14L Ito '4woid,,tht ith kEfforts, to identify youth out of. school, going
bgdbdftmyl "'hts- have' iitV &r been productive. School '46thbrltil6w4dnd. OtaffO5 ,lavie never coop'erated.' There%*i6#.%t6@Asge "yoaMs."IT iyuvw of but of school age, bk)"W VOftint. *Ad; many!: riot": vorkiiig Mve nevLer been
cottnted.. -A stdd! : *tt)ewpt d in.: Bos tbii to identify: and V & &&udtl nj: i-but.-wbfwetj adl Yfailed 16k the stated out-bf --sdhdarl: caiffot
b*kltieutif ied:*: 63OLther giAcia the Agirgesi iidkbe r do''not
bte rkWtki pubtid, e efit 6titvices- 6i file unemClAiMM,."I Thrydre i Atally 'lost- in

fir ",A j t o:j U ): :.v o.. L1 .l !'I. xi.. 'o

Department pf Latkor f stat 4,Virfik -Indicomv that Puerto' Rican men, and woMepi in tUej variow rag*ons work so -many weeks.:.a apsuaqd-..-,th44.i ae
f figure are average f ig4rea, zeaning-. that-: lijuge numbers of Puerto Ricans, work 04- Y-4wvf w others work a full, year., a givep. inov.gnt q OORCA on sea sons "economic, stability, and,,,markat: Amam4hior various produc; p or services,: large: numbexa. 'o u Ricans may beune 'loyed, qir employed.
MP .....
If they are counted as- employed they. may.-: be,%io-Only employed for two weeks--hardly a reflectlon of
economic stability or prosperity. Thegefor4e timing of studies, and the .-select lion: of. industry's for base analyses can stack the statistical'.. deck,,,444 Make thinjzs.look be4er or worse.
The.kind a PuertqRiqa4 doe.s,.rarely shows- u s 114p
,p in statistics., Most d a ta, ly states .employed" or "unemployed." If a college or; 4
with a Ph.D. is washing dishes, it. shows vue employed Puerto Rican. It, does,.npt show mde 1QYM1 ment--in many cases -really representing VunempjQymentll by virtue of the down'ward.mobility.
The numbers game goes on.and on.
However, the. consequences of the nui are
very serious.... Government f;unds are,., ;i1t9cated azat'"t numbers. Services to, particular:- e#miq,' offeredagainst numbers. Planning is deaUne st,
numbers,. but numbers.are. selected by:.,-pebp1e -4ntj8over4,or including the epnsuA j T z6mber ment.. Statistics, art.:
games, with the rules set by those who seek., to.:::.staOk the deck and establish Aumbers which.will-.Isupport .:,,tbeir goals and ambitions. I
Today, we, are called here to talk abmt ::X-m=berx o We are asked to lend our thoughtis .:,,*ad:...exp ectiag.,O:) da" experience, to assist the- government taKishing
counting systems which !are more accAr&te.:.,..,*u4. which reflect. actual coudi-tions in the .country., 4 iU
We are specif ica ly asked to find. -W*YS f.' tla Uz"* down certain aertor4, in. the. labor force--,jua as lighters youth, in the s: reetA.1..:.(in,,q te:. f t1w UhW, force),... Puerto Aicans. or,:;othei ,,et gso s t., X, J[ M labor, force or etq.,,., The :x lit. t I.A...
for many years large nu mbers of persons the labor force were not counted, and to the greater


exaVt tier a ority. groups: represented the .sector least cotntd r:numerically analyzed.
*0*4 stu ad-io tell the truth, unle ss
pg, i qsbsta a enough, to dramatically
-es,,f.-ceo -i t the current ,,opIA #,Rge s,,,opuato Charanteratc qP esons, 11td Stats-s Department, of CGM~~t~ijj~rqh,-j91 atta f 1,4,,000 Hispanics, ','"C1,15.$-00 reMexi ybspAericn. 1,7/+1,000 are
o ebany 812, 000 are teta
anSoutAeicnj andvl ,428,000 are Other Spanish.
d il". :' epss p wattackp4 for its inaccuracies icountn 1ipanics and figures were changed in 1972
st~es ade afer 1970 .
RV aq,,sc erd not- onl throughout maj or
n't ~Unie States- but also, through
'4 rk"W..any ins of the, coopty
Ro idee doe goyeXspn f ind these. people
to o~n tlemtodetermine who is the labor force, who is eploed, an~be is unemployed, underemployed, sub1 dve "e sih -labor-for ce? I

goy~rqint q 44 aik or thpople to ceme to it to

Da sstaistially daw upon the numbers who
appai o b 'outed- -searching for a service ,or a

tq,,tha a~vna e an aay times the 4ggo o; 1P~aes.toaccututethe positive or
th,-jipaxiye if~ 4iloal, ees ore funds for CETA tr44 and the represent-a46i~ ik: ke_4 ,otatqafctos W:Ifit wants money
it,:,ay,14 'f- ,owicee families. If
-or, iq a etheig groups,
o4,,~~ ~ ~ %.t q, qtk e~;thr need, squiree less
10fonk4P4 -P;01*4 le s sqxvicel o neft a. This,
local ~ ~ ~ 1."eetdeemn the atfots that a community
po q -444' hoe eat iof etohic
f4f'et 1n _rnj~s or 5pmd,, for M Wp Atse on vedufAtion,
,4qru e ppq-,4w -e Th1er resent
,)g j pig v gad in Ne o pub gate

to Submit ethnic data ref ltas:i the i p6"iwa dflI l6t
.3. J 1
The fault with data" gfithering th*t. too
largely subjective, an&compouA&U*Ah dif f6tkhtn*tU areas measures and systems e 4 terf. V
ref lect particul-ar) interests' Ali 6A 446ftpaxti-cutir
.reasons -rather than drigitfal-, p4rtp6ses jW I iti6a*6ng employment: traijAng placement couniioilt gj NO
"How can honest' titizens: 'forvoV thit ;V k6tegt
monitor it t and leveri sfibstantially'..',i :rib'tei 'xto )lltll'I Ali
There are'no established policy,',, system.
.a and pr ee the
methods. No agent can he watchdog
public interests.
In a publication', A -Re'port of th;e U, S. CosmdisABn' irit,-iti led.
on Civil'-Rights October 1976- Ritans
in the Continental Unite&States: AhK Uncertdin Futuiit the absence of. h4rd,-data aboutminority cbmo&u:diltii S&A their labor status i 5- noted" as follows

Page 70
The 'Iack'of data 6ti Puerto Ricans'41so Iiftiltt; tht.
effectiveness of training program f6r thj6h. J11A official of tl eSurtau of: 'Lahbr :OStatilitfet" ': said that' the major -barri6k 'to' an: 0441a&tion? e
situation was the lack of current informfitldh On "
significant: labor f-orc6 -hakraicb rustic#:_ kl::Ae
"There is no. group that addresses itselfift)'...
developing a 'body- df baikgrouri4 i1aforimition
on the economic-status of: thle Pitort&? Rkib .
th& market on a contimhiing b8WW;::" an
p pitiful sdiipLe
that is almost *o t thait bu
dori't have halU the &4aredesW'6f-Ahti &bbl,6"t, of, the Puerto; Ricans in 'NeW OYotk tWt-ybW db .
have, for ieifa"le, fdr lthe ,
simply be6ut;e of the latk of 4ftilaWlity of 'h-to ttq*l
data thit calls volitinuo tti_611tion:
The ilow, defunct, U'.1S.': CUbli*t 04 t-ee Wpoii'
tunities for bpanisfi' tpedkihTl P #* adilb WAN: that data 'weke, "f ragifieftttd 1W
obtain', and-'frequ -A6tR!xiitenf-;.A.., V*rio In t 1C "OWAAM to ""6k1_4 I
"Pository of. hitd1)1daMW1

f!,Fx furitjaer AtudJes,,: that will .1ead to the developient, fAMPT eAL,: or bettermeAt-. of programs for the:

jA,,,xonfe ncee ld by, the National Commissiou
fqq ,.414a : on employment
,power,,Pplicy i4 January 1976
pro'l -p.w- income groups one, issue of con-.
,tqj Eypp: Iaodeq4ate, atatlstical on
particularly groups.,--U determine, manpower services:.
ofe-rgage report wted:
4efiten particulax-ly-- important
:v ,,such data is-, used to,, estimate the
bewa.,: and, c baracteristicsof,, minority group Ar
A) part'11cularly those -who are
;.Sp.. a sh,,ppeaking or. --of Spanish heritage.
.9,, Ipcation of fede I funds, urider CETA is
il., lkased percent of
upon available data. Eighty
Ji. 1 .... . Ffunds. are. distributed -to :states and.:
4 -.AjIigjAIe pmiime,,. sponsors within'states according to, T .'...t
.holsod.. on;:
11, -the 81 r,
fo, job training in the previque,. f1scaI year,
(2) -the relative number of unemployed, and
.4t,43 -.number of adults. tin Iow3, C.),,,-thei relativw
4,11 e.r,,,eM c*we, families . .....
%,4 T'r
for the number of Puerto Ricans MOMMPIffed., and, poor are. vitally important in
:CETA. ,allocation$. Yet such data are
Ift many, I ittle -better. -than -guesses ....

Rican. collamityV Ulf& other minority ""OPMA, tims 5 ,-,Azani"tr af ford to stake their futures on, tvao" !,w guooseev' Oti6a sjng is also no way to run a

q4i nqt"tbe p#rpaso, .0f is-speaker to read, into L- frow:aunwrous- Sourdess and consider 'Itb*tv Ik hi s obligatild Therei, is no,
f, 140f IW"s! f r(?Iq j:Maay,,, soUrces of government
d1b i a &I itS o"'t failure.1, to. come up. with a
Irr L japtVgffecti", i0format4on "gathering system

The issue then t,'not be what has be;06 4omg
on for these many years,, but: rather what vati, W Ardone about it. The risk of attack and,: consuming and useless occupation forces us to loO.biLck rather than ahead. We cannot fall prey to..., t tiadi tional management traps of ...studies',,: tevieft and analyses of studie&j- reviews -and ad
inf initum. "What can. bie 46ne -:4 bqut.' the ST and ... ..... .... .. .... .
..when" must be the- primeiobjevtiv6s' ,
The Department of Laboc Is probably the, largest data collection agencyA in lovernmiaLt.::,wit computers, national regional, and local off ices axLd i,,4gents It is also the. agency most concerned with .::eeiployment, unemployment, labor, -training for j r.11) and work related data. It must employ,,Its resoUrces, to establish a better data-collection methodology and system
For too:long'. as earliek_ noted, the Departmeat. has ncit gone to the people, but has :waited fbir tM KAPeople to come to it-to derive data for: study: and analysis. Those studies proved only as'vallid as the t6pkesentation of communities which approached -,thLm departmental agencies. It was, nevertheless, used as.-valid.
Now it is time for the Department to go to the people.
If statistical projections, are- to' ::be:ua then they must be made on sizable and representative samplings, in places where the subject population can: be f ound-such as the ghettos across the I., coulitty. in: the urban centers. The Department cannot coA4i&t:th*t it will find its "crop" full grown and ready, It must plant the seeds and nourish.them.J
The Department must establish standardized data systems, using -.parallel situationwAa all: Pliceis' for comparisons and -study. It must touth" base,: *ith:: fte agencies and institutions Within localesiohith c.. vide it with a continuing supply of vital inforiaftl4W.4441,4 such as high eschools migration.. a e rvi c e a' Vestiounaires to selected: industries' wad 1 bu"i neiffod$A f. t6v6& Census questionnaires and- callebtion:_ 44th6di, -41oc4l..
iocu :b 6;
health and welfare departmentC: and: 40*r which- Df fer 'continuing: situdien, ,.and, moafter*ft"K few it vill be.-:pos4!hler to i4tibli h pattefti
using sizable enough., sampliings,,' : to a. ages and figures which could be cons3iLdered reasedably reliable.

-T) aV*1W:Qparages ,fl4e as into-the labor .force, Julag (papeing-tanciatre security -or local
%We? .1.Xhdx~bre -.:o.age, not'in shool '-the, numberon
Ohot: a. .8ntoe labor, foroe i,:the. number, leaving
*) anv in a- giveme tme,. and, snch data..
qan..bein. ..:o pvlaP datai vbich,: -with-, information from as c -(ar )qand onut the s tudy ands o ffe r, a mo re

rfses are. is each locale, and the sue total
41 4. "AS in a staken7an provide a clearer account ".a~pwtw,-l atnins and 'needs. L aTtmnt.o Labor must establish first .a set
04,190.i...eme, abah ossc:as high, school graduates or "...Mkt yerof .,.age, or selected industries lorllrhic employ large numbers of persons, or local sexvce,.aries serving the local population. It must
isgpde lines and reporting systems, a- taadardi.
Th Prcie indicators chosen, -and the precise
1 44004fr Pos. e ageshr-ed not Ithrough investigation.
T~g ajgd~hqe,- ]ocal, departments of health, :wdlf are
sad..euctio,:egularly conduct test surveys of limited dis. *h: buldng door by door. Similar 1W r V eqlgg,. bp .anmducted by aboh DOL, or in -conj unction
**th ~ 'es&, Seles ad samplings in numbers can
**eq: M ~ on. tJs owno, goes into the -comC04'.. a tkid-the,. truth.
esame .. ix is natit fighting local: iW ,.ts, bt providing them with acenrate data for
,?j0--S-Qn we. .... oeol Rettee are counter to tho ineretsof certain Isral. -groups, -the DOL can ,c~jaqc...t&oa independent studies. without cooperation
t~j~qq~ja~ r the tasters to establish the

,M,,Art*Ato a ae doassened,, and enly donemm~e 11w edamk ee ,-here Are .beates,
ne enp, ho are identified, responsible

D%.:. 404.. 4s saA foe local argani tat iona'
hq. P~.. ",At~la for the truth,.Ut
Pst lca:.neaprof it organizations cannot

advanceithell funds or stafU:to.sw. ,tW;thVh pt4p" Ur: the DOL Therefore L.I. the :: respo*8 Kaftisvd1i, 4Kt.h::A DOL itself,1, which::fhas. the -,resaurcas add-. the 'I AeeAVx4f local-, organizations cank ser*, under-0 Cofttrat* 4nother .,story.. Under.:. present. oft:: At
best advise,, criticize:- an&aftalav.c6*11 i1i.-f nj.,
The NPRF, for one .- would we
a series of conferences to id#ntify rid tikidk,;
methods and means, to gather essential.
data idd-, 1*Uk;1
mation--free of charge. By putting together, :and using the resources: of rtfi# k Ag computers, statisticians, expertise, Ue be significant.
I therefore ask -for a. study of what cAn be:..4006 rather than of what has been,,done::.,:1 For gu& a sl fidy .C %.7
the NPRF stands ready.
k: tj
LEVITAN: Thank u-:e Mr. Vusteloj:.'. J
Mr. Carlson?

MR. CARLSON: You, mentioned Public L&VJ94,611140 Was that specific or va-s- JtbAtk:: ddite:
genera Al.

MR. BUSTELO: Nol the law was einacted:sptcifli
for Hispanics. I could always c e"-bf_and make it available-to. the Commissidn,'Wt it is,,,ve" specific about Hispanics, and it established its regulation that Hispanics be: counted.'as Vue r1tv
J .KkRicans, Mexican-Americans and Cubans.

CHAIRMAN LEVITAN: We have that--on file., Wet provide that to Mr. Carlson.
... .. ... .
MR CARLSON: I notice at- ::the: end wftti n& that you do not have any specific L-V"WA*Udations 166 make. Is, that: correct that yott do not, hiveF: 4 bcoamendations that this-Comission could 4*ek- attE:,': 14: Kj x-k
MR. BUSTELO: No, but, frankly, tbe 'Va -tat about this,, we didn't: -ever start. m6rw.a kJ OP.
systen that we never really knew'beforet T!

Y9, ~ Msr. Bastgly I, am, very pleased to
u fore,,he. ga qmis sion, A. had some-relationship W*,,k o r ;Ov .issapin and,.. in fact, 'became. sensitive o mofthse problems when I attempte -d to. Iook: at t~keimp e o cnmmnity-based organizations among which
yq*; ~ ~ e -. lor4;,one..
100 ~ Wfl 4ings.a, .First of a LI I realizee, the dif f i0 mght. fce intying to ase., specif ie rqcrql a aos., but I think the. Commission, would be
V-Jhppy U on espid most,with., p. rhaps, som represeVt.,qtjqL ppqa,. organiations--I understand; there j g."c rto Rican -td;program :at CGNY .and it -is the pcad ut the spahaical intormation--because in
organzatobs of thisztype specific preceamendations arethoeAatare-likely to have the greatest impact. You
t;4 a va. isp.ig stabteent. 1, I: qoe. that yo mighAt like to see, in the
Cvgrq Pogga, Survey,
iwe 1th neIwol ke to .just.. ask you
stip4. hat was thee basis, of information the o~ra e:e on which the status of Puerto
Mmenptioased in your, statement a minute agq qess.#th.:in Spematioea showing -that Puerto .Ricans, 8401 -49V pweconomvic standing?

A M BSTELO: Well, the information, as I underbe ia dated aon.,a local basta ty selecting
C* re, t thee t re 1i gh concentrations of Puerto
in reasior .n$ ava liable bcusln
bha _Hspn c. at included on q qI i eg t~pp; hose- -oewry three.-month statistics. Sq~~~ 14ida Pj ~ n.Sur wey is. t .the fat soure
f" heneenioned., ThEat document makes
so* ~lv -pecffivwresem aatioas .which I would like W4 4W.V) wa t. I assid,- like this Commissian to
tak .&~fok a thm, because they are very specific in:

*W,~~ ~ ~ aw9I f:'o r. a o motion conasd ol' apstem, the

the-rafinttatia dat e might have on Puerto


Ricans., For example,' the'fisabe6r: of Puitd M&&n Uths that dropped out of high school., Have '*6u_ tie~d ta8 n~. that information? And if -,:!:t 4bkt has be o


MR. BUSTELO: Yes, that is:pet nh h~

f rom- the school system: in: New York. 11t to t easily available, inA any *other areas in the'-f 64 States. Our: experience ha's been that since 56%f~ iA really n6, obligation on Kanryb &dV'k'Part to ProVidli tia information, the. process is .mote, voluntary thar "4kt thing else, and getting the, statisticsA is like p*ilia teeth at times. -' So it, is a. ve ry.' diff icult pro4sik )t find exactly where we stand. ~..i|i
MS. WILLS: According, to 'the last 'paftrqap 'bfJ your statement, you talked about standakdized-' da-i systems, parallel, systems,: an thn.ise.a..hs' other kinds of data sources. I th Ink. wht' ioui suggesting here is that one of the respons~ibil ities :=at

this Commission would be to take -a ld1&k--a vide
variety of resources -in 'tertfs 6f data4. Are- 1et it" suggesting that with that wide- variety, o f 'data, th-f::.... kind of information can be used in some combination f the allocation of: funds, wh ich I: know is; a very re concern on your part.:: Of are youf trying 'to -slet that we need to expand the data sources?

MR. BUSTELO: *I think what I am- suggests ng4&Ashat. some of that data -is what useitraltobab to figure, out weeour* community: stands, 'since 0e4 -6 not have' :the 'uniform data provided for: other eth4i groups. -If we wanted the-data, i*Lt Oould take:a 'whl These sources should be looked, at -c to I establish U, status of Puerto Ricans in 'the commrnit y.9 There.It is way to do this other than to .'go, by tee aiu d f erent systems and try to come out with -some: cohesi.v goal.

MS. WILLS: What is an Hispanic? You la8 out so
very real problems. r DWes'. the *Civil Rit nmi4i-* have a. series, of..recomomdatons 4Own'howifto*ibietts identify a person's nationality? 7 ** ""*
W.A. '


MR. BUSTELO:. Yes,, we have it,, too. You have to in, asking in census documents where 10u. are- frm,., A Cuban is from Cuba. A Puarto Rican is from Puert* : Rico A Nexicari-American, is from Mexico and mostly the- West Coast,,,,, The only way of really finding..out is by asking specifically what ethnic group
,they -belozig.,to.. Now,. this. is. very important, because Cuban-Ameiricans- have, the highest per capital income, ha-,&ed .on- the_ reality that their im.migrat.ion is ;very dif f erent,- than, the Mexican-American or- Puerto Rican migration.,,-: The Puerto Rican,.migrant is for the most part fiva. the Jower economic strata. So you get the most. odisa-dvantaged migration. The Cuban is very dif'ftrentcobecause you have the professionals from Cuba. In.,the U .,S. the. Mexican-American has the second highest
income and the Puerto Rican has the lowest income.
When, ... you. say, Hispanic, it is -very misleading in terms of the Puerto Rican.,

AIRMAN IEVI TAX.- .. First I hope that you will loave, ,the Rights Commission report with the Commit. si oik Andi secondly, I hope, you follow up: on Mr* .Anderson's suggestion and also the suggestion implied by. Ms.. Wills' point. I am, trying to get some mo re: J-Aformaotioa on how we can obtain that type of data..,,!, Ohat,4 instrumentt, would you suggest we use? Sb*U14,:-..Ve:: juSt count it -in a few cases, rather than nationill ly? -If. you can help the Commission it will be
de,, Part.-.tof the record.,

3he answer to those specific questions that you asked are in that report. This-is why I
d4A, -not. waaft.,,to. ,elaborate. beyond that.,

IRMN UVITAN: If. You have anything else- to C*""it'T or thezConftission.-we will be happy to receive:

's ua.k-i. you.:,very much.
A.Wvf W.-raiag f rom Puerto Ri:co to. New England, we ImWk. johux- -.Zorxer: and St- eve Berman. Gentlemen,' the ftoer ix: yo s., ....Welcome Mr. Dorrer, Asyou may have .*inute and then we will
le*%*v o4abpnop.. .:, tJwe Is.ame, 4vouut I o.f., time: for questioning. We,:are running-behind schedule..

40-394 0 _'79 7


MR.' DORRER: I as testifing t:day::n -.beMa the New England Council of CESA Prtae pnos4Th
New England Council, of CHTA Pridme -Sponsors dasstk.* a 20 state, county and eiyprime sponsors. .1e ZWuei-6. has been organized.- to sponsor research and aealain. asN studies and demonstration projects aimed at aeiavi as greater coordination in the formulation-, and? as acatianof regional and national manpower policy. Ia hotosedl to be able to appear before: yer Commission to ehars our thoughts about, employment and -unemploen, sta tos tics and the 'processes, -through. lrichl these'. are developed... .. r
With the maturation of state and local manpower planning, labor market intervention ?polid54 have become more responsive to -conditions af o neagda meet and economic needs prevailing in ;hocal areas. At thev same time, the general analysis of the:- problem a a .this. level has pointed at deficiencies, in.,.:the, systeatt approach to planning employment and trad niag nprogras.n Central problems of definition and moesurementn ie tbBI system have become pronounced as local la are better understood by planners and adnstr ators Particularly, as these factors shape 'the magaitdde. af., resource commitments made to local jurisdictions and determine the conf migration of cyclical and straw neual programmed funds...
The movement.- towards dece ntraliztesa : J th!
planning and administration of the nation's employment and training system "was defended *n tlik tibn lthat state and local public "officials: anderstodd. tab nae. and scope of their unemployment problems and wer-*i capable of designing delivery -systems to e5 eatiwel combat those problems. Indicators of the e asm
condition are the starting point for this rces, h differences af meaning of those talicater~o :i
as now def ined and as now developed,: eassonictt. used--to different users and: atevant *onp, ne..

scezr he:, fact that economic .statistics are inevitably seeiopolitical and not. merely technical products. No ."puraly! technical method of change is*, in ,fact, seiiiparable fa its socioeconomic and political.implicatins and consequences .
T_ his-generalization will be underscored. by auksegaman further reference to a recent case in pointsamely, ab h revision by ther. .BLS :of methods of -determining state and substate unemployment rates which .becameeffective in January 1978 .
It should be noted at this point, however, that the Na ,.England, Council of CETA Prime Sponsors, Inc., ishamanhe viewpoat whi ch was forcibly stated by Mayor Mon Landrieut of. New Orleans', on behalf of the U.S.. neence :of. Mayors,. before the House Post Office and C 1vi: .Semvice Sabcommittee. on Census and Population on February 23 of this year, with respect to the process for changing or revising significant economic indicata rs.
K.lhe -Caencil takes no position on the merits of the methodological. changes introduced by BLS.. It does agree with the. principle expressed by Mayor Landrieu that. ..if.. a change in methods of determining indicators anusd d wefo allocation of resources to states, substate aurisdictions an& groups of people of: varying, acioeaomic characteristics, will result in changes in the Smteas !of allocation considered by the Congress in lgslaties. involving income transfer payments, such changes should not be made on the sole authority -of the
amii stratva .b ranch or agency.
4unhamj the: Council shares the position which hias
besepessed,, in rfeneto the recent change by B~V.:,4::ystate lnvel professionals in labor statistics, thw~o*tPMCEA.. T his position in effect criticized BT.S for::inthriiing the. change without opportunity for theinpa o or :review and.. comment by. those' pro~ewloala. The :U. S. Conference of Mayars. also strngl.,oh eased to the: absence of opportunity fenor part i iao.. review, or even readily available

~Aogh the anary 1878:change may have affected
difgieviNiew E" and CETA prime sponsor area unemplayas: 'diffe rant y-at thia time there ..appears to
be o: lear: .authoritate information--the Goncil endorses the view that no such change should even be


brought to f inal formulation* -vithoutt:adequate, obpportunity for participation: by -prime .sponsor profes--. sionals. The; confusions ,.mis.communications, obscurities and uncertainties still continuing, in the: wakie ofthe January 1978 revi si on--to a great extentiher anna of failure to provide for communication,: participation and review prior to introducing the .change*- -suggest that the principle of participation may .also.n prove to, be: most practical in making such. changes, efficiently..
In this respect, the pr-ceue prvie ---
the authorizing legislation for the Coomission and further developed by the Commission, as evidence ad its actions to date, including the current hearige are exemplary. The issues and. decisions involved.: the final reconunendations of the Commissin nar. pote tially, highly controversial.-. And they se be' developed at a time when conditions will. tend tamk the controversies particularly visible.
In striving to realize greater, productivity:fc. employment and training policy at both the mattenal~n local level, more precise definitions and explanatin.. about the nature and causes of unemployment,:theoee,
tions of labor markets, and economic interactions aut be articulated. Qualifications of leading. indiato must be presented and new measures of economic dyealdc must be established. Gains in this are.. wil bsuettr identify the problem, lead to more effective :reaorom. allocations, and enhance the retrn achieved
human resource investments.
From the planning perspective, the types: :O .ae market data that are -relevant in the analysis aof IUo market problems of residents should he, rapa e anonli of depicting the aggregate dimension af h.* probem:
but also .yielding characteristics of the;aiit1*, who are currently confronting this type o' rbe The data should--he capable of being nesed xoanalyidl as well. as descriptive as to gain ma !W

groups in- the local labor meaket. -An: under~aAn as the diverse forces at work in the loaea wy rrV
ducing the relatively high uanemployent:-ae.o specific groups is critical to. the, design ~paldt and training programs that can assebat.e-.:rd1e: these target gronps in a sucessfn1 anar.