A WORKING GLOSSARY
PREPARED FOR THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, RESEARCH,
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
SECOND SESSION BY THE
SCIENCE POLICY RESEARCH DIVISION
CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE
LIBRARY OF CONGRES/"''Serial X
Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 63-164 WASHINGTON : 1976
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents. U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 Price, $2.20
COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
OLIN E. TEAGUE, Texas, Chairman KEN HECTILER, West Virginia CHARLES A. MOSHER, Ohio
THOMAS N. DOWNING, Virginia ALPHONZO BELL, California
DON FUQUA, Florida JOHN JARMAN, Oklahoma
JAMES W. SYMINGTON, Missouri JOHN W. WYDLER, New York
WALTER FLOWERS, Alabama LARRY WINN, JR., Florida
ROBERT A. ROE, New Jersey LOUIS FREY, JR., Florida
MIKE McCORMACK, Washington BARRY M. GOLDWATER, J., California
GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., California MARVIN L. ESCH, Michigan DALE MILFORD, Texas JOHN B. CONLAN, Arizona
RAY THORNTON. Arkansas GARY A. MYERS, Pennsylvania
JAMES H. SCHIEUER, New York DAVID F. EMERY, Maine
RICHARD L. OTTINGER, New York LARRY PRESSLER, South Dakota
HENRY A. WAXMAN, California PHILIP HI. HAYES, Indiana TOM HARKIN, Iowa JIM LLOYD, California JEROME A. AMBRO, New York CHRISTOPHER J.. DODD, Connecticut MICHAEL T. BLOUIN, Iowa TIM L. HALL. Illinois ROBERT (BOB) KRUEGER, Texas MARILYN LLOYD, Tennessee JAMES J. BLANCHARD, Michigan TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, Colorado JOHN L. SWIGERT, Jr., Executive Director HAROLD A. GOULD, Deputy Director PHILIP B. YEAGEa, Counsel FRANK R. HAMMILL, Jr., Counsel JAMES E. WILsoN, Technical Consultant J. THOMAS RATCHTORD, Science Consultant JOHN D. HOLiELD, Science Consultant RALPH N. READ, Technical Consultant ROBERT C. KETCHAM, Counsel REGINA A. DAVIS, Clerk MICHAEL A. SUPERATA, Minority Staff
SUBcOMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, RESEARCH, AND TECHNOLOGY
JAMES W. SYMINGTON, Missouri, Chairman
DON FUQUA, Florida CHARLES A. MOSHER, Ohio
WALTER FLOWERS, Alabama MARVIN L. ESCH, Michigan
MIKE McCORMACK, Washington LARRY PRESSLER, South Dakota
GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., California JAMES II. SCHEUER, New York TOM HARKIN, Iowa JIM LLOYD, California CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut TIM L. HALL, Illinois ROBERT (BOB) KRUEGER, Texas MARILYN LLOYD, Tennessee TIMOTHY E. WIRTH, Colorado
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
HOLTSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, C031IIrTTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Washington, D.C., January 12,1976.
Hon. OLIx E. TEAGUE.
ChaIrman, Conmitteee o en ce and Technology, House of Representattes. Washington, D.C.
DEAR IR. CHAIRMAN: I am t r-nsmitting herewith a revised edition of "Science Policy-A WVorking Glossary." The glossary was originally printed in April 1972, and first revised in 1973.
In this third edition, 22 new definitions have been added and 11 other definitions have been substantially amended; 32 new entries have been added in the appendix containing the annotated list of acronyms and abbreviations of organizations frequently appearing in the science policy literature, plus a new selected list of abbreviations of 26 scientific and technical societies; and two new appendices-a chronology of Federal executive branch science organization: 1787-1975 and a selected bibliography of glossaries and related sources of science and science policy terms-have also been added.
I commend this document to you and am sure that all members of the committee will find it useful.
,JAMES AV. SYINGTON.,
Chairman, Subcommnittee on Science, Research and Technology.
Digitized by the Internet Archive
LETTER OF SUBMITTAL
THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS,
CONGRESSIONAL RESEARCH SERVICE, TVashsington. D.C., December 22,1975.
[on1. JAMES W. SYMINGTON,
C chairman, Subcommi ttee on Science. Research, and Technology,
Committee on Sciencre and Technology, U.S. lHouse of Repre.'entatives, Washi ngton, D.C.
DEAR MIR. CHAIRMAX : I am pleased to submit this third edition of the glossary for science policy in response to your request. We have entitled the paper a "working glossary" in recognition of the fact that the terminology in this field is changing dynamically. Many definitions in the two revisions have been modified and new terms have been added.
The glossary was prepared initially under the direction of Dr. Franklin P. Huddle of the Science Policy Research Divison. This third edition was prepared under the direction of William C. Boesman, assisted by Dorothy M. Bates. Paul F. Rothberg, and Elaine B. Carison of that Division.
It is suggested that correspondence recommending amplification or correction of the glossary be addressed to Dr. Huddle so that we can continue to consolidate the comments and, if you judge it desirable, update the work from time to time.
Acting Direcfor. Congressional Research service,
Library of Congress.
SCIENCE POLICY: A WORKING GLOSSARY
Adversary Process---------------------------------------------- 4
Agro-Industrial Complex -----------------------------------------Algorithm----------------------------------------------------- 5
Ambience (noun)------------------------------------------------ 5
Ambient (adjective) ---------------------------------------------5
Applied Research (see Research, Applied) ---------------------------6
Armed Services Procurement Regulation (ASPR) --------------------6
Basic Research (see Research, Basic)---------------------------- 7~
Benefit/Cost Analysis (see Cost/Benefit Analysis) ---------------------7
Benefit/Risk Analysis (see Risk/Benefit Analysis) -----------------Bioconversion-------------------------------------------------- 7
Brain Drain--------------------------------------------------- 8
Brainstorm (verb)----------------------------------------------- 8
Brainstorming (noun)-------------------------------------------- 8
Cable Television (CATV)------------------------------------- 9
Catalytic Converter ------------------------------------------- 10
CATV see ableTeleision) -------------------------------------1
Citation Analysis---------------------------------------------- 10
Citizen Participation------------------------------------------- 11
Closed Cycle-------------------------------------------------- 11
Communication (s) (and Communication Theory) --------------------11
Communication, Scientific ----------------------------------------11
Consensus Forecasting (see Delphi Technique) ----------------------12
Cost/Benefit Analysis (Compare Risk/Benefit Analysis) ---------------12
Cost/Effectiveness (also, Cost/ Effectiveness Analysis) -----------------13
Cost Out----------------------------------------------------- 13
C-riterion (plural Criteria) ----------------------------------------14
Cross Impact _\Ilatrix Analysis------------------------------------ 14
Cross-sectional Data (see Longitudinal Data) -----------------------14
Cybernetics (see Communi cation (s) and Communicati on Theory) - - 15 Data Base (also, Data Bank) -------------------------------------15
Decision Theory----------------------------------------------- 15
Delphi _Method (also, Consensus Forecasting) ------------------ 15
Delta Chart-------------------------------------------------- 16
Dev eloped/lDeveloping/ Unde veloped ,Nations ------------------------16
IDiffusion (of Technology) (also, IDiffusion o :Innovatiun) -------------16
efi-niiions-- Continued Page
E- -onom tri .----- .. .. . ... 17
Ec Ton ni ie Indi,:t *r- ... ... .. . - .. .. .... 17
-- - v- -t-m -.. .... ... ..- - - - 18
Effo(tv ne .... .. r.. .. 18
Elticioney.. ... . -.- - --....... ... 18
E leet r n :gne i' Spe-t ru n ..... 19
E.m piric:l (:d l t ive,) .- .... ........ . .... 19
-Empiricism (noun) . .. .- -..... 19
Energy. .... . 19
EKnergy Conversion .................... 20
En in --ring .. . ... . ...... .. . . ........... 20
Entropyt ... .. .. ......... .......... 20
Environment .. ........... -... ........ . 21
Environmental Impact Statement(s) (also, Impact Statement(s), 102
Report(s)) ................--------------------------------------------------. 21
Ergonomics ...........--------------------------------------------------- 22
Externalities (also, External Effects) .----------------------------- 22
Facsimile (Facsimile Tran mission) ......------------------------------ 23
Feedback ......----------------------------------------------------- 23
Food Chains ..-------------------------------------------------- 24
Forecast (also, Forecasting) ------------------------------------- 24
Forecasting, Exploratory - -- --------------------------------- 24
Forecasting, Normative ---------------------------------------- 24
Futures Research (also, Futurism, Forecasting, Futurist) --------- 25 Game Theory ------------------------------------------------- 25
Genetic Engineering ------------------------------------------- 25
Global Effects_ ------------------------------------------------- 26
Goals, National ----------------------------------------------- 26
Hardware --- ------------------------------------------- -27
Heuristic (adjective) ------------------------------------------- 27
Heuristics (noun) ---------------------------------------------- 27
Holistic (adjective) -------------------------------------------- 27
Homeostasis .--------------------------------------------------. 28
Impact (as in Impact Analkyis, Technological Impact, etc.) --------- 28 Impact Statement(s) (see Environmental Impact Statements) ------- 28 Incremental (adjective) ---------------------------------------- 28
Indirect Effects (see Side Effects)------------------------------ 28
Information (see Communication(s) and Communicati on Theory) 28
Infrastructure ...------------------------------------------------- 28
Innovation --------------------------------------------------- 29
Interdisciplinary Research (see Research, Interdisciplinary) ..--------- 30
Intergovernmental Science -------------------------------------- 30
Invention (compare Innovation) --------------------------------- 30
Irreversibility ------------------------------------------------- 31
Lagging Industries --------------------------------------------- 31
Lead Time ...---------------------------------------------------- 31
Longitudinal Data .--------------------------------------------- 32
Luddite (also, Neo-Luddite, and Technophobe) (Antonym: Technophile) ...---------------------------------------------------- 32
Magnetohydrodynamics (MIII)) ...-------------------------------- 33
.Managemeint Engineering --------------------------------------- 33
Material (noun) ..------------------------------------------------ 33
Materials Cycle -------------------------------------------- 34
Materials Management .......... ------34
Materials, Policy, National -------------------------------------- 35
MBO (MVanagement by Objectives) ------------------------------ 35
Mission ------------------------------------------------------ 36
Model ....-------------------------------------------------------- 37
Monitoring ------------------------------------------------- 37
Multidi iplinary Research (see Research, Interdisciplinary) -----37 Muli national Corporation ------- ------------------. 37
National Materials Policy (see Materials Policy, National) ---------. 38 Negative Feedback (see Feedback) .. ....---------------------------. 38
Neo-Luddite (see L'iddite) --------------. .----------------- 38
Net Energy Analysis --------------------------------------------- 39
NIH (Not Invented Here) Syndrome ---------------------------- 39
Noise Pollution ------------------------------------------------ 39
Norm ative ---------------------------------------------------- 40
Objective ( ,., djcctive) ------------------------------------------- 40
Objective (noun) ---------------------------------------------- 40
O"Aig'ations --------------------------------------------------- 40
Operations Rese-rch ------------------------------------------- 41
Optimization --------------------------------------------------- 41,
Option (s) ----------------------------------------------------- 41
Option Analysis ----------------------------------------------- 41
Paradigm ----------------------------------------------------- 42
Parameter(s) (al'so, Parametric) --------------------------------- 42
Parametric Analvsis -------------------------------------------- 42
Peer Review -------------------------------------------------- 43
PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) -------------- 43
Photosynthesis ------------------------------------------------ 43
Plasma ------------------------------------------------------- 43
Policy (collective noun, also Policies) ---------------------------- 44
Policy Analysis ------------------------------------------------ 44
Policy Science(s) ---------------------------------------------- 45
Pollution ----------------------------------------------------- 45
Population Science -------------------------------------------- 46
Positive Feedback (see Feedback) ------------------------------- 46
PPBS (Planning-Pro gram ing-Bud ge tin g System) ------------------ 47
Prediction ---------------------------------------------------- 49
Priorities ----------------------------------------------------- 49
Problem Assessment ------------------------------------------- 49
Procurement -------------------------------------------------- 50
Product Effectiveness ------------------------------------------ 50
Program (noun) ----------------------------------------------- 50
Program (verb) ----------------------------------------------- 50
Program Analysis ---------------------------------------------- 50
Program Evaluation ------------------------------------------- 50
Proof of Concept ---------------------------------------------- 52
Public Interest ------------------------------------------------- 51
Public Interest Science ----------------------------------------- 52
Public Technology (see Technology, Public) ---------------------- 52
Quad --------------------------------------------------------- 52
Quality of Life ------------------------------------------------ 52
Quick Fix (also, Technological Quick Fix) ------------------------- 54
RANN (Research Applied to National Needs) -------------------- 54
RDT&E (Research, Development, Testing, and Engineering) ------- 54 Recycling ---------------------------------------------------- 55
Research ----------------------------------------------------- 55
Research, Applied --------------------------------------------- 56
Research, Basic ----------------------------------------------- 57
Research, Exploratory ----------------------------------------- 58
Research, Fundamental ---------------------------------------- 58
Research, Interdisciplinary ------------------------------------- 58
Research Management ----------------------------------------- 59
Research, Mission-Oriented (or, Mission-Oriented Science) ---------- 60
Research, Pure ------------------------------------------------ 60
Reserve ------------------------------------------------------ 60
Resource(s) --------------------------------------------------- 60
Resource Recovery -------------------------------------------- 61
Resources, Allocation of (also Federal Support of Science) (see
Priorities) -------------------------------------------------- 62
Risk Analysis -------------------------------------------------- 62
Risk/Benefit Analysis (also, Benefit/Risk Analysis) ---------------- 62
Satisfied (verb) ------------------------------------------------ 62
Sc-nario, ------------------------------------------------------ 63
Science ------------------------------------------------------- 63
Science, Applied (see Research, Applied) ------------------------- 64
Science, Basic (see Research, Basic) ----------------------------- 64
Science(s), Behavioral (see Science(s), Social) --------------------- 6 15
Science, Fundamental ------------------------------------------ 65
Definite in -- T In I InIue( Page
Science Infraitructure 65
Science,.1i ernation:al (aIo nt ernational Scientific Interactions)- 65 Sc in 7 Icife 65
Sclie t), Natural - --.--- - 66
Science Poliev . . . . . 66
IcienceI C d. Social 6a hadiral Science6)).67 Scientitlc Method .-ee Science. 68
Scientific -r-f.-------. 68
Second-4 )rdr Effecs or c -n- qu nc ) -e Side E- -ects) _ .- 68 Sen'itivity A milv'i . .. .. . .. . . 68
Side Ethet< (also ecoIndary Effects, Second-Order Consequences,
Indirect Effects (fur Effects, Impacts is sometimes used)---------- 69
Sim ulation .. . . . . . . . . . . . .70
Social Costs (see Externalities (also, External Effects) and Risk,
Social Indicators (also, Social Accounting System) -. ---------------- 71
Social Invention- -- -. -...----- -- -- -. -------73
Software- - -.- -. -. --------------------------------75
Specfication- --- -_ --. --. -..-...-. -- -. -----------------75
State of the Art----.- - - ----------------------------------76
Steady State - .- -- -.------- -..-.----. ------------76
Stochastic Process-- - - - ---------------------------------77
Symbiosis (alo Symbiotic Relationship) -------------------------- 77
Synergistic Effect(s)------------------------------------------- 78
ynoptic Measurements ---------------------------------------- 78
Synthetic Fuel (Synfuel) --------------------------------------- 78
System(s) Analysis (also, System(s) Approach) -------------------- 79
Technique ------- -------------------------------------------- 80
Technological Fix (or T. Quick Fix)-.------ ----------------- 81
Technological Lag ----------------------------------------------- 81
Technological Obsolescence (also, Technology Ob olescence)--------- 82 Technology ---------------------------------------------------- 82
Technology Asessment ---------------------------------------- 83
Technology Forecasting ---------------------------------------- 86
Technology Gap ----------------------------------------------- 86
Technology, High ---------------------------------------------- 86
Technology, Intensive (see Technology, High) -------------------- 87
Technology, Tntermediate -------------------------------------- 87
Technology, Public -------------------------------------------- 87
Technology Tran4er ------------------------------------------- 88
Technology Utilization ----------------------------------------- 88
Threshold ---------------------------------------------------- 89
Toxicity (noun) ----------------------------------------------- 89
Trade-Off (noun, verb) ----------------------------------------- 90
Tragedv of the Common ---------------------------------------- 90
Transnational Corporation (see MVultinational Corporation) -------- 91 Trend Extrapolation ------------------------------------------- 91
Trihology- ..... ---------.............. .......... ...--------91
Value(s) ------------------------------------------------------ 2
A. Chronology of Federal Executive Branch Science Organization:
7 975----------------------------------------------- 93
B. Annotated Li,.t of Acronyms and Abbreviations of OrganizationFrequently Appearing in Science Policy Literature with Selected
Lit of Scientific and Technical Socieities.. -------------------- 115
C. Selected Bibliography of Glossaries and Related Sources of Science
and Science Policy Terms ---------------------------------- 143
SCIENCE POLICY: A WORKING GLOSSARY
The purpose of this Glossary is to facilitate communications between the Congress and persons engaged in the study of science policy. Somte of the terms taken up here are used in various contexts to mean widely different things; writers in different countries or in different disciplines sometimes use different words for the same subject. There are socially important distinctions between such terms as, f or example, Cost/Benefit Analvsis and Risk/Benefit Analysis. The word Model has a different mea'nino in the expression 'Model Saueor Late MKodel Television Set from it~s meaning in the Forrester Dynamic Model of World Interactions.
Whether in congressional hearmigs, agency reports. professional symposia, or elsewhere, it is useful that the terms expressed in the discussion of issues of science policy communicate meaning according to generally accepted standards.
Debate over the meanings of words is usually fruitless. It recalls the classic example cited by S. I. Hayakawa of the two families which ceased speaking to each'other over the issue of -whether unemployment benefits we're insurance payments or were merely called insurance payments.
Given a set of usable standard definitions, the analysis can proceed to substantive issues. The definitions presented in the following pages will not accord with the usage of all students of science policy. However, the definitions are available to be cited, or to help clarify alternative meanings.V
The point is that science policy is a lively art, a field of study undergoing rapid development. Its flxibility of language reflects this tendency toward change. The standard meanings proposed in the Glossary can at least serve as peg points, useful to characterize the present State of the Art, and perhaps later on to measure how far the changes have gone when the Glossary is r-eviewed in a year or two hence.
It is also important to identify meanings covered by several significantly different words-reflecting different disciplines or different contexts-and to discuss these. Every scientific discipline tends to develop its own special vocabulary. When practitioners of the different disciplines come together to consider mutual problems of science policy, they bring into use their own special languages. One man's "Homeostasis" is another man's "Steady State." Analogies like these are rarely precise, but they do enable interdisciplinary communication when their degree of interchangeability is mutually understood. The Ri3e o 'f Scievce Policy
Since 1950, national policy in the L-Tnited States has been to support scientific research as a beneficial activity for public purposes. The
assum)tion on which this policy is based is that the discovery and disc osure by scientists of the facts of nature broaden the options available for the applicatin of technology to achieve public purposes. As more facts become knolwn, their technological application enables man to improve or restore his environmllent, fId tllhus to enhance the comat ibility of man's relationship) with the environment.
As resources of the public have been increasingly applied( for this pu-rpose. the 1)owerful olef'cts of the policy have become evident. These effect s have become a major consideration of national policy. Intendedl re(, )s of scientific disovery have been achieved in countless directions. But not all aspects of the man/environment relationship have been equally well served. There have been technological lags, the march to obsolescence of entrenched technologies, and the appearance of technologies clearly dysfunctional in their intended purposes. Moreover, the effects of any given technology are invariably mixed, with some benefits accompanied by some economic, social, or physical environmental costs. The growing power of technology operates to increase the magnitude of both benefits and costs.
The formulation and implementation of national science policy invalves management of the resources employed in the discovery and use of scientific information to enhance man's compatibility with his environment, and the use of the innovations that emerge from this process to produce maximum social benefits at minimum social costs. The problem of translating this twofold proposition into operational policies and procedures, and of designing institutional arrangements to implement them, turns out to be enormously complex. This is the problem of science policy. The problem is of interest not only to scientists but to political decisionmakers and the general public. If the issues of science policy must. be discussed in scientific or technical terms, then it becomes important that these terms are carefully defined in language meaningful to the public.
Scope ai.,d Limitations of the Glossary
The title "A Working Glossary * *" was selected to reflect not only the purpose of the collection but also its limitations. It is manifestly not the last word on the subject. It is open to correction or amplification. Suggestions received while the Glossary was in preparation generally have been incorporated in it; if these involved adding a new and conflicting definition, this was done. However, the register is not closed but will be open for the further posting of corrections and amplification.
Not all words selected for treatment are of equal currency. The selection was perforce arbitrary. Some inclusions may have been unnecesary; some omissions unfortunate. More terms wcre suggested for definition titan could )e included, but no decision on such matters should be regarded as final in a "Working Glossary."
A word of explanation may be helpful as to the criteria used in the selection of terns to b)e included in the Glossary. One of the most import ~t of these was the assignment- for science policy purposes- of a special meaning to a term in wide general usage. Another was the existeiwc, of controversy as to which of several meanin s of a policy term was the precise one. A third was the observation that change was taking place in the meaning of a policy word in frequent usage.
A few terms have been added that characterize, institutional developments involving technology (e.g., Agri-business, Multinational Corporation). Also, a number of terms are included that refer to emerging technologies of potential political importance (Cable Television, Magnetohydrodynamics) or to areas of technology that might warrant legislative attention (Catalysis, Corrosion, Tribology).
Considerable correspondence was received by CRS in comment on the first, issuance of the Glossary. Many suggestions were offered for additional terms to be included. The procedure followed was to attempt a Trade-off (q.v.) between satisfying all critics and applying the indicated criteria. If the result does not constitute an optimization, at least-hopefully-it will "Satisfice."
There is always a tendency to approach the subject of definition from a context which makes difficult the exclusion of the author's bias. In the study Technical Information for Congress, the observation was made that no person is free of bias. In defining terms, bias is virtually unavoidable. One way to try to escape it is by offering as little information as possible under each term-in effect, striving for the least common denominator. This reduces bias at the cost of reducing information content. Another approach was attempted here: a preliminary draft was submitted to more than a hundred persons eingaged in science policy studies, inviting them to review it, and suggest changes or alternative wordings, to help active balanced treatminents. Their help is gratefully acknowledged. If bias still remains, the fault is the author's but the remedy remains open: the identification by correspondence of opportunities for further refinement.
It was presuned that for items on which no comments were received the definitions were free of bias or else represented a consensual bias of those consulted. In the latter case, it is hoped that the wider dissemination of the Glossary will stimulate a further response and yield further emendation toward objectivity and balance. Additional Comment on the Revised Editions
Many helpful comments have been received by the Science Policy Research Division in response to the first and second publication of the Glossary. These have been considered in preparing the present revision. The original compilation of definitions was largely the work of Dr. Franklin P. Huddle. Mr. William C. Boesman and other members of the Science Policy Research Division contributed additional definitions for the revised editions. An appendix by Mrs. Dorothy M. Bates provides a chronology of Federal executive branch science organizations 1787-1975. An appendix by Mr. Paul F. Rothberg and Mrs. Elaine B. Carlson presents a selected list of acronyms and abbreviations frequently encountered in science policy literature. The third appendix contains a selected bibliography of glossaries and related sources of science and science policy terms.
FIN I FNITI()NS
A structural or functional (behavioral) modification of a system, usually self-directed, in response to a change in the external stresses operating on the system.
A debate, legal contest, or other confrontation, in which decision is obtained or sought by the verbal interchanges of proponents of opposing positions in the presence of a neutral decisionmaker.
The business of agriculture, as opposed to its science or practice. The essence of agribusiness is that it is capital-intensive. Productivity per man-hour is enormous; productivity per acre is not very impressive, although it is subject to constant improvement. Extensive use is made of energy materials (fertilizers, powered equipment, and aircraft). Farm units are very large. Management is often corporate, rather than family. It may consist of the initial development of agricultural land through the distribution of agricultural products in retail trade. Agribusiness may require knowledge of:
Land surveys and purchases;
Development of irrigation systems;
Use of chemical fertilizers;
Governmental development of agricultural infrastructure, like
roads. water and sewerage systems, and rural electrification;
Establishment or use of transportation systems for agricultural
Establishment or use of governmental and/or private financial structures, like grant systems, agricultural or export credit
institutions, and loan guarantee proprams;
Establishment or use of distribution systems, like production
or retail cooperatives, farmers' markets, and elevators and storagre facilities;
General business skills, like marketing, office management, bookkeeping, and legal services; and
Government assistance programs, like the Department of Agriculture's Extension Service, Farmers Home Administration, Banks for Cooperatives, and Community Services Administration
riural development programs.
A nucleus of complementary industrial and agricultural enterprises structured around a source of cheap, abundant energy, like nuclear energy. An agro-industrial complex combines the ideas of synergism and economy of scale and might consist of :
A nuclear power station of 1,000 to 2,000 megawatts;
A plant to desalinate sea water at a rate of 1.3 to 3.8 million
cubic meters per day;
A cultivable area of several thousand hectares capable of feedingy several million persons on the basis of 2,500 calories per person per day; and
A certain number of industrial plants producing nitrate and
phosphate fertilizers, aluminum, caustic soda, chlorine, and other
Agrro-industrial complexes might have their greatest use in undeveloped regions, particularly desert regions near the sea.
A symbolic or quantitative expression of a relationship between or among different elements; a set of stepwise directions for attacking a problem. More generally, a complete system of numbers, including zero.
See Option (s). One of several possible courses of action, expedients, methods, or contrivances considered to off er th-je same approximate outcome or effect.
The surroundings or environment of a place or thing. Used in experimental research to indicate, e.g., the temperature, humidity. pressure, gases, and radiation in the space surrounding the object o"f an experiment. (Se-_-e Background.)
The action of taking something a part and examining its components. The very extent of the use of the term may seem to deprive the word of much of its meaning. It is employed in a great ma,)ny different senses, and in many combinations. The meaning seems to depend somewhat on the discipline connected with its use. Thus, the chemist makes an Analysis when. he discovers the quantity and quality of ingredients in something. The biologist and botanist use Analysis to signify the operation of classifying a specimen. The psychiatrist uses it to mean the treatment or cure of aberrant psychic behavior. The physician interprets the word in terms of -what happens in the laboratory of pathologov. The mathematician uses it in a variety of ways, for example:
1) as a tcclilque of priovinig a theorem by assuimling the truthll of the t lworI111 a11d tlwn search" out thle conseqIlweces: 2 ) since integral ld lleentl calculus ae11 commonv used Il seacnl11 out these consequences, he tends to regard anyv application of ca culus as a form of analysis: (3) still more loosely, he ivgar(dis any problem amenable to matlheinat ial solut ion as "subject to analysis:" and most loosely of all. 4) a ilvsis heoines the establishnwent of-or search for-any kind of ianltlttve relationship.
The n1ot ion that ulw/i; is an identifiblMe and describn)le process independent of the discipline involved or the item being analyzed is suggested by the large number of compound words hyphenated with it. For example:
ValueFailure'ost-effect iveness)perat ionsSystemsSt ressBeliabilityflintainathilityEtc.
According to Merriamin-Webster the word means to "resolve into its elements." (Separation of "anything, whether an object of the senses or of the intellect., into constituent parts or elements.") Also, any statement or table exhibiting the results is "an analysis." The verb to analy.z'e has as synonyms the following: separation, resolution, dissecHlon. reduction.
There is a tendency to expand the scope of Analysis to qualitative as well as quantitative factors (see Policy Analysis). In this sense, Analysis can be qualitative if it retains such other characteristics as order and logic, explicitness or replicability, definable scope and internal consistency.
See Research, Applied.
ARMINED SERVICES PROCUREMENT REGULATION (ASPR)
The Armed Services Procurement Regulation establishes uniform policies and procedures relating to the procurement by the Department of Defense of supplies and services pursuant to the authority of 10 U.S. Code, Chapter 17 or other statutory authority.
ASPR 15, for example, deals with contract cost principles and procedures, and ASPR 15-9.05.35 specifically deals with independent research and development costs of particular interest to commercial organizations engaged in, and requiring support for, basic research, applied research, and development.
A contractor's independent research and development (IR&D) effort is defined in ASPR 15-205.35 as:
that technical effort which is not sponsored by, or required in performance of. a contract or grant and which consists of projects falling within the following three areas: basic and applied research: development; and systems and other con-
cept formulation studies. IR&D effort shall not incll(ude tecllhnical effort expended in the development and preparation of technical data specifically to support the submission of a bid
See also Procurement.
Phenomena forming the natural Ambience (q.v.) of experiment al research or ordinary situations. For example, tf)e noise of natural eetromagnetic radiation from solar activity is received on radio receiving sets as background, and naturally occurring terrestrial radi oacti iity is detected as background radiation on geiger counters s-t to detect large deposits of radioactive materials.
Toxic materials like mercury and arsenic may form part of the naturally occurring chemical background of the human environnienit. Chemical pollution from factory effluents, chemical fertilizer runoffs, and defoliants would add to this background toxicity.
In general, the background of any social, economic, environmental, political, psychological, scientific, or technological situation includes those phenomena which would distort the understanding or evaluation of the experimental or experiental situation unless the phenomena were known and accounted for in the experiment or experience. They are the situational elements in relation to which a particular vector under consideration is to be evaluated or measured. Before this evaluation or measurement can be made, the background must first be determined.
A countervailing movement in response to, and in the opposite direction from, some specific social or technological trend.
A standard. A reference point on some significant parameter against which changes over time can be measured. E.g., analysis of the solute content in a particular stream on a specific day of the year, so that by measuring it on the same day in subsequent years a trend can be established.
See Research, Basic.
See Cost/Benefit Analysis.
See Risk/Benefit Analysis.
A biological process in which one form of energy is converted into another form of energy by plants or microorganisms, for example, by photosynthesis or bacterial digestion of sewerage sludge.
I WNr A Si
1'i-onklly. the quantity of N-e(refiable natter. llowm-er. tile terill is l1ot J)n'ci- e 0(him equates B10111"Iss Wit h "j'N,*II(r Nv(1'(rlIt" while
Hit? NlAinaw-11111 A'ncyclopedia of A' (-i*CWT OW/ T(ThliO10(ly (IPCITICS it ,1.-; the (//,I/ NN-("qrllt of In-incr niatt I inc d food, pre,,ent in
:1 sr(, .WS 1)(T ill'ItI011 11111(l expl-essod III tel-ins of a 'riV011 01. vollillie of the 11"lintat.
Biomass is a po sible source of energy for iii(Itistrial aii(l i-esidential crellerate fuels from Noinass in11se. TeC11111ralk- feasble processes to Chide fermentat ion to pi-odtice methane and alcohol, chellileal processes to waJeto low 11ni crasemis
file]:-- mlkl oils.
T't:,,:; forin isoffeu ii -edto i-eferto the of persolls with Sci.
elitil'ic oI, le"1111010(rical klIoNN-j(,(j(rp, Sj\jjjl ol- (,Xp(,I-jojj(,(, fi-oni oil,,, comiw or lok-,llltN,) to :111"Alwl.. The at t 1, wt loll of tlle (lestillatioll
C0111'pjitioll :1111olpr (-()jIjltl-WS Or loc,-Illtle : to retail
ca] (,I, lilt ('11ectual freedom" to sclellfil- '--;,- it Call 6 the result of C0111(INNIomic. opportunity-as in a rich versus a p( or comitiN tlieiv arc, many otlim, pos.z;il)](, A related expresslyl, "Rcn-erse
Erain lias been used to refer to the outflow of scientists al-IJ
from a comity that had previously attracted thelli.:
TO in the process of Brainstoril-iiii(y (q.v.).
t-- Z-- t
BRAIN ;TOMNMNG (171011n)
Loo,: (Av, auv unstructured analysis of a proldeni or issue. 060'Mal1v a (ws dgned by Osborn, it is iinw defined in Webster*s Third
New TIlLerilatiolial Dictioiiary asfollow.1:
To practice. a, conference techni(jue, by Xhicli a group attempts to fill(I a 5zo!ilfion for a, specific mi-oblem by aiAia -'sin(r all t1w ideas spoi-lf,,,m(,ouslY cmitilbuted by its 11-lembers.
forth the four ba.sics of brviii-4(),-mil1g as:
Ct-iticism is ruled out. Adverse, jud Lineilts of ido,'Is mul- t
withlield until 1, ter. (This is the
**T "11 I'Clo-1 -Wh eeliii(r" is welcomed. The wilder the, idea, t1w better.
I t I t o tame, d own t Im i I t o t I I i nk up.
is wanted. The tcri-e,iLer the iiumber of ideas. the. MOTT I 1,7elihood of useful ideas.
P., FundamentaI8 of Ecology, third edition (Philadelphia: W. B. SaunS(- T'.S. House, Committpe on F4)r(,h:n Affnirq, Subcommittee, on Nattonal
' 4-curitv Pollev snd Sei(-ntllic DevelopmPrits, Science. Trclinoloqy, and Ameriran Diplowilf, Prain I)I-aill.- A Study of the PeraiRtent lx,,me on International SZ(-ienti 17c ffobility, 'I''l Cwl'-'ri, 2(1 Sos ,inn. (Washington, D.C.: U.S;. Government Printing Office. 1974). 72 ('1 j ri) ni 1, t tee Pri n t. ]
Combination and improvement are sought. In addition to contributing ideas of their own, participants should suggest how otherss can be turned into better ideas, or how two or more ideas
: n1 be joined into still another idea.
CABLE TELEVISION (CATV)
A system of receiving, transmitting, and more recently originating (cablecasting) television signals for the use of system subscriber (generally households). CATV generally transmits, by coaxial cable, signals from local television (and perhaps radio) stations and stations in distant cities, according to the "carriage" rules of thle Federal Coinmmuniwatiols Commission (F.C.C.). In addition to commercial broadcast stations. CATY may carry programs of local public interest and government proceedings on closed circuit channels, and may be requir'd to provide a cablecasting channel and public access channels for local expression. CATY may also provide closed circuit channels to local school systems and to municipal service organizations. like police and fire departments.
Most recently installed CATV systems provide 12 channels. with 20 or 40 channels likely to become common. The broadcasting industry has also proposed the extensive development of two-way (duplex) CATV systems enabling subscribers to initiate communications with stores. banks. and opinion and voting polls. The comprehensive, twoway use of cable systems for such numerous services has been called the "wired-city concept."
At present. CATV is largely a system for television entertainment: it generally costs subscribers from $5 to $15 per month, plus small installation charges. Its development in the major television markets has been somewhat restricted by F.C.C. rules governing the carriage of broadcast signals.
Initially, CATV was thought to affect adversely the development of THF stations. To the contrary, some studies subsequently indicated that CATV extends the markets of the, generally, weaker UHF stations.
CATV also has implications for pay television (PTV). Opponents of PTV claim that CATV is the first step toward PTV which, it is also claimed, will damage "free" commercial TV.
Catalysis is a mechanism by which the rate of a chemical reaction is increased by some particular mediating substance, called a "catalyst," which remains in its initial form when the reaction is completed. The catalyst allows the starting substances of a chemical process to react to form the products of the reaction at a faster rate than when the catalyst is absent. Catalysis as an important technology offers opportunities to improve environmental quality using such devices as Catatlytic Converters (q.v.) attached to automobile exhausts, to increase
s Alex F. Osborn, Applied Imagination: Principles and Procedures of Creat: ,e ProblrmSolving, third revised edition (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons. 1963). p. 156.
(I I' Ir V S1111plic- 1,11cl :17)(1 cw ll to
I C I t I t I c a c t I I S t,( I r
I I t r I a t I
I I co )I I I I I I I 11- I _(,e, I e -,won -c :I t I yst re f", T." to ,I II v elenw l It I !I tri
I: I t l I t I I I I I I I t c.- cl 1:, 11 Lri 1, 111 s t I I I ct a t es.
111 t I I e I Il t e(I St,
I op lI11011 41:111 _tlrve :1 t 11(, t. to IIIo,( I N-,It(, tile C ojj(rj-e 4,; Jo
III(, I 11""W 1:1 % (w to aII cxl 4tillr
T Vt 001i\'CI-ter :11so cal '11NA P, -I
(It' v lce ( les 14"] It, k I to F(It '(I IVO 1"I 114 h-mil exhausts and pronlote. cheillion] lvact.iollc; to reduce level-, of 1III(Ic-Ire(I I)o1lutalits
-,r 1-1 )oil,-, and c,11-holl illollo.,1-11de :I]v hurne(I
0 11 1-() (r(, '% Into
Mid NO, f disa<- citedtd (1)n)keu (lown i
ox.N-Lren and nitro,_ren) by these
The first. portion of t he s y-;teni ii, Nvi(le!4 nse is a N-0, cntaly, -;f conN-011tell. AlI the exil"111st flows throu-'ril the colIN-el-tel., the NO, is
dolvil 1,1110 lilt lild oxN-Cren bN- -I catnIA-st, Ili the, form of
it M(r OR f.1 honeN-conib inatrix on small d1..Illicter IMIC4,; in tile convoi-ter. The pailly clenned e Nhaiist then, passes throlio'li a secoild converter system, I'll Nvhich hydrocarbons are converted lilto carbon dioxide ana wnter. and carboTi monoxi(le is converted into carbon dioxide. Th,, exlumst (-r.qg emer(res from tho back of the -second con-verter and pns -,es thro li the conventimial muffler percent
of 1995 automobiles wero equipped with catalytic Converters to
meet. current standards.
See Cable Television.
AN- A 1, -1 ; Is
Citq6 ,m anJY
Citation inde-:es for literature are availal)le througli, several coninitil-C-ilal cyrotips. e7io of -Whicli is, the Tn4ittite, for Scientirio TilfOT-Tild"tioll (IST) i-n Phihdelphia. TS-41 fh-4 publislie(i the Svimce Cif:itiwi Tr(Ir-,-, C CT) in 119C", and 1w tr-tn :I Social cit,-Itioll
Tnd,,1,x- sev( ral xears Ia1-(,r. ("If"MOT1 in(le X O-z Z I T(' ab.o avallal)le
fOT- 1,i x -w,(l Twrln(licals for articles.
A f ', I t 0 d I ) V "% f C1 V I TIAVe I I ist ock of T,-; T
Citation indeXin(r is based oii the simpl(v concept fl-Int an
mithor's references to previoii<1Y recorded infomnntiwi I(Ient:0 f N- 71111ch of the earlier work that is pertinent to tlie sidje(-t
f) f I i; cz Present document.
('I- William IT., A uf()mobile Fn,*.,oRi,,n Control ('-N(,Nv Ym rk. 'MeGrnw-T3111 Book ron pn 1971), 136 1).
Proponents of citatioil analysis ve tisichiji as a possib~v iisefid tool in jiidgqV th trlii of'l -O1 ill
CIT~ZIN PATCT PAT I() N
1yqlOlenit of the( public in docisioninak41nir. At least, three diferem oirs of slich tan livolvemientf call be di'stii1iishedl (1) participati(1n in the1' select ioni of the roecisioial.kers, ~\ excreise, Of the ricrht, to( voto: ('20 iiWolveillelt. in the (lelilberatiifls of flhe de(cisio-niiiikeis lby coininnications and reipresefltations of interest in a desired outcome, or ris to the- met hodlology to be emiployed in the iawikingr of the~ deci1>101S : a11d. (3) public participation in the decision itself (sometimes (81le(I "direct democra4 )cy") plebiscite, pi 111ic, comn vention, or other I I (A 11 .
Concept inxolviin( a Pow of material throii.!Zh a system thait does iot (li:sc,-arge wastes 1)tt returns the flow to becornj input into the systeii. it is a hypothetical concept, ais loss is probably unavoidable
i~i ven he ost carefifl11 designed and mnana -ed system.Hwvei
is to be distinguished. from~ energy cycles, in which th1e. second, law of thenlmodynaii-lis applies, andl in which the.ls through entropy is
general caiculale,. Coiiipare Materials Cycle.
COMMUINICATa)N (S) (A-ND COMM1VUNTCATTO)N T71HEORY)
Coiiiiufunication is an essential element of all systems. In simplest formi- ,i (ominlcation i~s any transillission of imeanficg, by Signs, nals, or s ,ymbols, between persons or stations. Communication takes I I ,I]I- formlis and emiploys m any media.
Comvontn iat;.on theory (cybernetics) concerns the relationship between communication and control. It refers specifically to the reguilativ e processes of physical, biological, and behavioral systems, with a special emphasis onl Feedback (q.v.). Feedback, which tells the system how to adapt itself to changing situations, enables control of a system onl the basis of actual performance rather than expected. perf ormal"nce. Negative feedback reverses the direction of the main system; positive feedback amplifies or intensifies the work of the main system.
Information theory is another complex aspect of communication theory It proposes to measure, the effect of operations by which a particular selection is made from a range of possibilities. It is related to prol,)blitv theory in that thle measure of selectivity is a function of the. probability of achieving the same result by chaiice.
With the increase in the support and activitY iii the worldlwide, scieptifir communnnity, there has beeii incre-ised atteiii ion given to th-e ,problems and science policies for impro-edl inform at ion han dlii nl and c om ili un icat io1-. 5
11S. Pn-s-man, Sricntific and Tcclinologi'al Communication (Elmnsford, N.Y.: Pergarnon Press. 1969).
CONE NSUS FORE('ASTING
See Delphi Technique.
This is a broad term generally conveying thle idea of foregoing present benefits to reserve them for the future. Among the shades of meaning encompassed by the term are I)eserv at imon of natural beauty in an unspoiled condition. frugal use of a scarce and critical eMterial, prevention of needless consumption or waste of any resource, resrvationll of supplies of a resource for allocation iong essential uses. accumulation or protection of reserves of a resource to 11ensure its future availabhility, and the concept of (maximum) "sustained yield" of resources like forests. Compare Steady State and Homeostasis.
A limiting condition to be satisfied in the design or operation of a syst em. For example, the total cost may be a constraint; another might be the percentage of system life consullmedI in down-time. Physical size or weight constraints may be required. Compatibility of a system with other systems may impose constraints. Sometimes it is not easy to distinguish between constraints and design objectives. For example, for a corporation to operate at a profit is sometimes considered an objective and sometimes a necessary constraint.
Corrosion is the deterioration of a metallic or nonmetallic material caused 1)y a chemical interaction with its environment. The major materials subject to corrosion are metals, but corrosion of nonmetals, like the weathering of timber or concrete, is also important. Broad types of corrosion reactions involving metals are: (1) corrosion by electrolyte solutions, like the corrosion of zinc in hydrochloric acid; (2) corrosion by dry gaseous environments (usually at high temperatures) :
(3) corrosion by solvents, like liquid metals; and (4) the failure of metals under prolonged stress, through stress corrosion cracking.
Economic losses directly or indirectly attributable to corrosion are estimated to be some $15 to $20 billion a year. Corrosion problems are a limiting factor in the progress of areas like the exploration of the oceans and the development of better refining operations and chemical processing methods. Half of the current losses from corrosion could be prevented by full application of known technology. Anodi protection or cathodic protection, inhibitors, material selection, and the appropriate design of structures are methods used to control corrosion.
(Compare Risk/Benefit Analysis)
The relation between social benefits and so()cial costs associated with the operations of a technical system under sti dy. The benefits and (osts include direct and indirect effects. Morltarv equivalents are
sometimes assigned to the non-materialistic values for the purposes of comparison and to clarify the relationships between benefits and costs. A respondent offers the following amplification:
Cost benefit analysis deals with decisions of two kinds: (a)
engineering or building, and (b) policy. In either case, alternatives arc defined and compared in terms of their cost and payoff. Type (a) refers to choices of weapons system designs.
for example, and type (b) to [departmental] policy decisions.
This definition could be referenced to [Cost Effectiveness] since historically cost-effectiveness analysis preceded costbenefit analysis. In the military area, in which cost-effectiveness analysis originated, the payoff was defined in terms of effectiveness of the military system. In the civilian area.
"effectiveness" is replaced by "benefit." Admittedly, benefits in social systems are even more difficult to define than effectiveness in military systems.
Another respondent suggests that the term Cost/Benefit Analysis signifies "a decision-making tool especially useful in obtaining a first ranking of large public projects in terms of their priority for implementation. There has been an increasing attempt to widen the scope of both cost and benefit to include effects that have no obvious mn rket valuations."
COST/EFFECTIVENESS (ALso, COST/EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSTS'
This is a term widely used in systems analysis, and has been carried over into budgeting analysis. It signifies the ratio, over an explicit and finite time-span (such as product life in service), of cost in dollrs and other tangible values to Effectiveness (q.v.) It should be noted that Cost/Effectiveness as an analytical expression is useful in dealing with tangible costs and measurable performance characteristics. Its application to programs with unpredictable results (such as scientific research projects) can lead to the undervaluing of the project. Experimental programs are not amenable to such analyses, except after the fact.
A definition used by the Research Analysis Corporation emphasizes the concept of precision:
[Cost-Effectiveness Anlysis is the ] quantitative examination of alternative prospective systems for the purpose & identifying the preferred system and its associated equipment, organizations, etc. The examination aims at finding more precise answers to a question and not at justifying a conclusion. The analytical process includes trade-offs among alternatives, design of additional alternatives. and the measurement of the effectiveness and cost of the alternatives.6
Tn Prograim Analysis (q.v.). an earlv step in the assignin, of nonetary costs to the various program inputs required.
6 I. HIeymont, O. Bryk. f. Linstone. and JT. Surmeter. "Guide for Rev1owrs o Sqtudles Containing Cost-Effectiveness Analysis," Economies and Costing Department u.v 1,.2 (McLean. Va.: Research Analysis Corp.. October 1965).
A cAj):l(-1,Y 11)1, Tl()%-tl 1 -(wiatim l 1,()I' CX11111)1(, (d, iik as, prill1) -J w. purpw-eflll
to I W-cf,
r, -lilt. CW ITKIWs Q)1111',tl CIZITEIIIA)
A (w ml explicit 1)v Nvllirll to evalliate am,
thilig or Iv,- 11my 1,e itll ive w, 41tuditat IN-0 alid oh('101"IN'(1 (,I, lvk% I i" I-,11'ect crilcl.11:1 ;Irc the elem elits
to be nw-1-111v l !o dvt; '1'11117w co'
IMPACT MATRIX, A-NALYSIS
Tilis is 11 w(AwA correlation ba ed oil tilc that every
event. 1111(ki. cmi- 1(h.1-ati011 can
I )N- analysis. oil t I w ba- I s of estimated ,ii.oiicr t lie di f1'creiit eveiit z cwi- i(lcrc l. all adjusted probability cst j i i iate of eacli
call 1w pn)JuceJ. For discussion of the tc ,Amique, see
T. J. Gonl,)n and 11. Havward, I-Iiiiitld Expe".1nielit"; With the M,,itrlx Metliod of
NO.,..) (Dek-cl,11,wi, 1968).pacresloo-116.
Howard Johnson, -Some Computational Aspects of Cros,;;Impact .11:itrix Forecast ill cr," I-,uhlf cs, 1,01. 2)1 -No. 2 (June 1970),
P' I (re s 12 I ,; 1.
Ivicliard Rvfwlil) ,rn% "Ttiforniation Theory. Cross-Tmpact Ifatrices. fmcl Pivat(,J Events," Technological Foreca.stfinq and
Soo?*t77 Cba;i (7(,. Vol. 2, -No. 1 (1970), pages 5,")-0'0T. J. Gonlon. '-CroF :-Tmpact Matrices," Fuhiw. Vol. 1, 'No. 6
(December 1 1)69). pacres527-531.
R. Rochbor(r. et al., The r7sr o f Crom?-bnparf Mafiicc.? for ForeavdJ1_'7amiii)y (Middletown, Conn.: Institute for the Fiitiire..Npril 1970).
Selw:,,-ii, Enzer. et al.. VIbires Re.3carch, as aii, AW to Gorerrmriit Plann;nq ;-P. Ca7wda, Report R-22, (Middletowm, Conn.: In,f it iite for the A
'jFuturo. Aucrust 1971).
A difftreiit- teclinique, -witli a similar name, Cross-Support A!Ialysis (atso called "Deci ioii Tiripact Analysis"), is describe(I '1 4 a metliod "to aid in teelmolo(rical forecastincrby the, study and operationalanalvof tile effect of nialllcincr and implemmitin(r coi-liplex (lecision- wliieh zif*Fect aml, ,ire. afTepted by a large number of filctorc;." ForaTI illustratiOTI Of t1liS feClInIqUe. <00 Cliristine A. I-Zalpli, "Pie Begiiininas. of C1'OSz'-SllPD(-)Tt AllalvSiS (I)TAILA.) as Applied to flic F1Qh1nsr Tmlusill Yr,, rviii .1. C(' tron and Cliri-fiiieA. Ralph, IwIllsli-i(IIA pl)7;C(7Of T,,-hn010t1;c,17 (New York: 11,11 ey-jllter.--, ell(T.
I T I i) _,re :2 74.
This term inpj)lies a comparison. It 1may refer. alternatively. to the fields of intellectual activity in a country that are relatively less developed than are other fields, or to a country in which the fields of intellectual activity are generally less d elop d than in otler countries.
See Communication (s) (and Communication Theory)
DATA BASE (ALSO, DA'r-, BANK)
A collection of factual information. particularly when deposited in the memory core of a computer ('"stored"). organized or structured by categories pertinent to a problem area, and accessible to be called out or consulted.
Even when all extraneous variables are held as closely under control as possible-as in an elegant scientific experiment-the finding is still probabilistic. See Science. In the management of social pro grams. control of variables is much more partial. Accordingly, in choosing among Options (q.v.) in program management, the manager or decisionmaker always makes his decision on the basis of partial and incomiplete information. Decision Theory is the term applied to the array of mathematical and other logical tools and procedures of Systems Analysis (q.v.) that may help to focus the issue and give guidance toward a rational decision under these conditions. The goal of a 'good" decision, under this theory, is to maximize the probability of favorable outcome.
DELPH1I METHOD (ALSO. CONSENSUS FORECASTING)
This is a term referring to one type of procedure, developed by Messrs. Dalke and Helmhner of the Rand Corporation. for the forecasting of time-related future events. It has been most commonly employed in the estimating of the probable time of achievement of specific technological or social goals. The technique involves the repeated ("iterative") consulting with numbers of informed persons as to their best judgment as to when a specified event is likely to occur (i.e.. when it will occur, not when it should), and providing them with systematic reports as to the totality of judgments rendered by the group. The responses of all participants are assembled and returned to the participants. inviting them to reconsider and to offer any defense they may have for an estimate that seems out of line with others made by the group. This information. and revised estimates. may then be circulated to the participants for further analysis and so on. The procedure can vary considerably. but its primary utility is that it produces a wellconsidered consensus of the intuitions of a plurality of informed witnesses without injecting the bias of leadership influence, face-to-face
confrontation,. or group dynamics. Respondents as individuals are exetected to clarify their own thinking, and the final decisions-according to the theory, at least- will tend to converge by narrowing the range of estimates iII response to the most convincing arguments.
graphicc portirayal of a logical sequence in decisionmaking. It consists of a logical network of Decisions, Events, Ibgic, Time sequence, and Activity.
I)EVELOPEI/D.:VEiOPING /UN,,DEVELOPED NATIONS
TThse are conceptual terms and encompass many characteristics. Tlev are always relative, in the sense that no nation is fully developed or totally undeveloped, and rarely are all factors of development being developed at the same time. The state of being "developed" has reference generally to such factors as gross national product (GNP), education, level of technological development, industrial productivity, industrial infrastructure, health and welfare provisions, agricultural productivity, level of exploitation of available resources, and the like.
Loosely, any intensification in the use of technology, whether to raise the economic level of a geographic region, or to provide concrete means of improving the performance of a function or program. As distinguished from Research (q.v.), Development is the employment of available information in the construction of a piece of operating hardware or a useful process. physical or social. In the usage of science policy, Development signifies the systematic use of the lkowledge and understanding gained from scientific research directed toward the production of useful materials, devices, or methods, including design and construction of prototypes and demonstration of processes. In industrial practice, the term "pilot plant" is often used to refer to a principal phase of the process of Development-the proving out on a small scale of a new industrial concept.
DIFFUSION (OF TECIiNOLOGY) (AiLSO, DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION)
Some persons distinguish between the first application of a new technology- (i.e., the transfer of technology from the applied research phase to application) and subsequent, more general application of it. The term, Diffusion, is commonly applied to the transfer of a new technology from the first commercial use to a number of competing users.
Introduction of the economic factor of the future cost of capital, to be charged against realized future income produced by a proposed investment of the capital. For investments yielding returns in the very long range future, the discount can be a major percentage of the total investment.
The biologist Haekel coined the term "ecology" about 1870 by combining the Greek roots oikos (house) and logos (study) ; literally, the term means the study of organisms "at hiome." Odum, in The Fundarnental8s of IEcologqy, states:
Usually ecology is defined ais the study of the relation of
organisms or groups of organisms to their environment, or the science of the interrelations between living organisms and their environment. Because ecology is concerned especially with the biology of groups of organisms and with functional processes on the lands, in the oceans, and in fresh waters, it is more in keeping with the modern emphasis to define ecology as the study of the structure and function of nature, it being understood that mankind is a part of nature.
. In the long run the best definition for a broad subject field is probably the shortest and least technical one, as, for
example, "environmental biology."
Laymen frequently use the word to refer to the environment itself, rather than to refer to its study. In this loose usage "ecologist" may be anyone interested in or concerned about the environment, rather than a biological scientist. Thus, in a letter to Science magazine, July 14, 1972, Bruce L. Welch of Johns Hopkins University asked: "What is an ecologist? One who has graduated from a curriculum bearing the name 'ecology'? A member of a professional 'ecological society'? Or one who holds the point of view that an organism's interactions with its environment are important, and who seeks to rigorously define the natural rules by which these interactions are determined ?"
The application of statistical and mathematical techniques in solving problems as well as in testing and demonstrating theories relating to matters of economics.
Statistical series reflecting changes in the national economy over time. Examples include: gross national product, -wholesale price index, unemployment level (aggregated and disaggregated by categories), disposable income, new capital formation, etc. An important impetus w as given to the use of Economic Indicators by enactment of the Employment Act of 1946, Public Law 79-304, 60 Stat. 33. approved February 20, 1946. This measure declared it to be the "continuing policy and responsibility of the Federal Government" to manage its affairs to "promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power." To coordinate this effort, there was created a Council of Economic Advisers, one of whose functions was (sec. 4(c) (2):
-to gather timely and authoritative information concerning economic developments and economic trends, both current and prospective, to analyze and interpret such information * for the purpose of determining whether such developments and trends are interfering, or are likely to
with Ow '1(1 Iicv('I!w11t of [the in(lic"Ited policy.
'M ( I to c( )I I I p' I c a I I( I l I I )I i lit to the P lv- I I 11
fo such (1(' -clopllwllts alid ti-clids.
Sec Aso 1 11 llidwltoi- .
EC( )S Y ST L N1
The t1w functional imit in v. i--; -2my mva of
r:"Iiire th'.It llw hiflc.' IIN-111!-r '111d Im I1116 11(l, :111)4 :111cps niter(I c t 1114-Y to prw hi (' '111 exch"111- of ill, 1:11 1 (ro 'Iter* howeell Ole ]'N-incr and
Mduill, Fllwlam ;Iit(lls of All example
01 an ecos 'Stenl is a Iake.
All ero'system is cmix-eniently de 4cribed in terms of four colist It 11 ents: "(1) abiotic substances. basic orgaiiic an(I inoi-ganl(' (10111POunds of the environment; (2) producers, autotrophic oi-cranlsm.- z, largely M'V(111 plarits, which are able, to manufacture foo(l fmi-,i smilple illOF(T11711C sllh-stance 4'-' consumers (oi- macroconstimer-c'), hetem11-()JAlie 01,(ramsm 4. chieffi, animals, which in(rest other orcramF-ms or pa ri cul ate or cra i i i c- mat ter (4) decompo.zei-s m I c ro consu m e rs. saprolvs or sapropbytes), beterotropliie organisms. chiefly bacteria, mid funcri. which break doNvn the complex compounds of (fead protopl.-I-Zills, (-ib,-:orb some of the de( miipo-s,t1 oil pro(luctl-:. '!Ild release Simple substances usable by the producers.I -FECTIN-1-1- NESS
In N-5tcrls anab-si ;. the terni Eflectiveness is an iLl!xrecrative cxpru.1sion ilitende(l to cjwonipa- s afl performanc-( qualitic.,-z of a system 111af. the cu<,omer Vs-or i I
u d cr is like1v to iudge-as relevalit. 'I)(, terill
]LAIS ft COII(lifion in which tl e system or progri',im
lias been desi,Yned to satisfy at some pre-determ i l)(I'd 10vel 911 (-ritcri:l elected as The term dOOS TlOt ill1p] V T)('H'(TfiOll bilt os Cnfi-Il
,9Accii.u-v in fill significant cafp!foriec; of perfornimire. Aii -1-" tlect IVP (I IffIll Nivill r(-'Illt from tile total of desifm declsPAIS "A1HO11!T Opt-101114 tq.v.), Felectin(r the opfinifl Tra(le-Off (q.v.) ttt ezoli (Ieci- Ion point. to a I I conceivab] v rele vant i nf ermq I an(I (11' W"It.
titative and qualitative. fim(XII)le alid i1)t'8n:rriI)1e. of pert" .-ill;) 11'.(' :111(1 environmental compatibility. The conceit inclv(](, 4 <11ch ol)v'wls (.1-1 teria as cost. effieiewv, and reliability. It also im-olves total "Ife (OT, "'Lif'O C-A-Cle") CO.4. Diaintainability, maintenance of state-of-Ow-art Y00"Iernitv. ri,muiabilitv. training. comT)atibility with exi twfod oper"Itinpr V',i vi ron n tent, rpc -clp or so-rap value, and siieb otlier criterl"I '9S t'lle des)mi ei)crineer and the cmtom-r consi(l(,r relev mt.
The term lia z carrie(l over into Nvi(le Ilse of
PUMPO r such as in Co4/1'frectivenes ; (q.v.).
E Fr i c i r -.\ c Y
A cOT14-CT)t of o0pilt divided I)Y illpilt. CF P li;(,-Iwr tl)o
cT1-'wjwN- of a c ,-, Q, em, the closer E.6-1clicy i< to unity: it is I I N" -,-I. -s e x
as :1 i--,rkri-enta gre lezs t1l"In one.)
tcl m 1"I'll"'iriiev ip, also 11541d )OT'(' 100 -(Iv tO in'1i('('1t(' 9171 iTIPl1t-1'(1:) f '01 ip of V iz.. '-'11 i1wre"Is" 1!1 w itnilt
wit!)Ollt "I'l ill 1T)pit. or mairfiined IcN-t] of output with re-
duced level of input indicates increased "Efficiency" even though neither term is quantifiable. Still more loosely, the term is sometimes used to refer to increased output per unit of time with a given set of factors of production.
The electromagnetic spectrum is the full continuum of radiant energy which is transmitted through space or materials in the form of electromagnetic waves, either from natural (terrestrial or extraterrestrial) or man-made sources. Although electromagnetic radiation is generally treated as being in wave form, it may also be treated as consisting of discrete particles or qu.,-a, like photons of light.
The full range of electromagnetic radiation extends from cosmic photons with a Frequency (q.v.) of 1023 Hz (Hertz) and a wavelength of 3X10-15 meters through commutated direct current with a frequency of 1 Hz and a wavelength of 3 X 101s meters to direct current supplied by batteries with zero frequency and infinite wavelength. The electromagnetic spectrum includes, starting from the high frequency end, gamma rays, X-rays, ultraviolet radiation, the spectrum of visible light, infrared radiation, microwaves, radar, television FM radio, shortwave radio ANT radio, longwave radio, and induction heating ra(liation.
Sot rces of elei-tromagnetic radiation include extraterrestrial sources, radioactive nuclei, inner atomic shells, atoms in sparks and arcs, hot bodies, electronic devices, rotation machinery, and batteries.
Based upon experience or experiment alone, without using science or theory; a posteriori (from effect to cause), based upon actual observation or experimental data; opposed to a priori (from cause to effect), based upon reasoning processes (theory) independently of actual observation or experimental data.
A method based extensively or entirely upon experience or experiment with little or no reliance upon science or theory. Sometimes called "Edisonian" research because the famous inventor Thomas Alva Edison relied heavily on "cut and try" experimental methods. Empiricism bears some relation also to the philosophic term "pragmatism"-i.e., "that which proves effective" as against "that which is supported by theory or hypotheses."
Energy is the capacity to do work. It involves a force acting over a distance to move a mass or overcome a resistance. Energy takes chemical, mechanical, electrical, thermal, nuclear, radiant, and gravitational forms. A spring can be compressed to store mechanical energy and do work as it returns to its relaxed shape or position: a charge of gunpowder has chemical energy and does work by burning expiosively A mass may possess energy by the nature of its physical position (potential energy) or by the nature of its motion (,:lnetic energy) Senists use different units to quantify its various forms. Physicists use joules,
e "S Il 0lCCtroii Volts I ,io:ori4 uC calorie-S: and engineel s us
British:1 te mlnts (I Btu ) '1nt? kilowatt-hourls. Quan11tities of energ'(Y arkia hia wl equlated toteach other- byN conersIn ut is like,-(
liui~,I I~ -h Oi h) at-l '.
Oiuv lito change from1 on fI r t1 111 11ot !ir uIual.y11 n hg
Trw BtuI, anl mIl()unlt oft hweat requiled to r.:ise the teilwaur f one poul o )f walt er onle degree F:1hr IenheIt, haIs evoldvedl as :I((1a 11 (,ilit, enery 1un it, Te I euIvt(11 alents of cer-tain fuels II an elect nelprdcio r the followiru..r:
N tu'Irall -:1-. 1 cubhic foot ----- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- - ---1
Elec (t rical production, 1 kilowatt-hour-------------------------- 3 4,-12
B)ecauise te B Il is a smnallIq I aoun) t Of enleI.ry, la -re (It 1 1It I (," ar oV(ftenl e-xpressedl as exponlential, (101'_ or 10",,eg. of the Btu. See Quadl.
Energy (q..v.) exists in a number of forms and is capable ofA bIng ('hang-ced from one formi to another in -natny ways.
The burn-iing of coal to convert cheical energyr to heoat, the ulse of Qolar~i eniergy to provide electricity to heat or cool a boumse, and1( the cellular metabolism of food to provide a living~ body within cailories 2re e xam- ples of energyv conversion. Ti any energyv pr-oesssoefth ene~rvis convetdt heat or lgt or is otherwise( lost to the syszteml. ConlstqentlyI after con ven~lon, the remaining energy can (10 les-s Work thI anI previously. In th11is sense, thie t rin sformnation of enel.ry friomi one f ormn to another is ne ver 100 percent eflicient.
1Einstein's famous formula E~m2 eqjuates energyv with mass "in" and the speed of light "c". According to this equation, if one kilogram of matter ic; entirely converted into electrical energy, it yields 2-5 bilb lion kilowatt-hours of electricity.
E -,N-G TI]EI IN G
The profession in which a, knowledge of the mathematical and natural sciences grained by study, experience, and practice is applied with judgment, to develop ways to utilize economlically the materials and forces of nature for the benefit of mankind.7 1.It i possible that this (lefinition is, too 'Severe in excluding the contributions to engineering deinof psychology an(1 anthropology humann factors engineering), biolog0yV a(11 medical res-earch (bioengineeringr), and the long(_ l4ists of speci a Ii ze (discipllines req uiredl for systems engineering.
Entropy is an abstract concept of the process of los s inI the relative order or arrangemenent of thle conlstitulent el ensoacledytm It is- measurede" in terms of the energy\ flows or the arrangement of "I(efinitlon supplied by Engineer-s Couincil, for Professionl Development.
molecules in the system. A highly ordered structure, like a pure crystal, has low entropy. The random molecular arrangement of a gas has high entropy.
In the systems concept, the purpose of the system is to preserve low entropy, in other words to maintain stability by adapting to chance in external or internal stresses, without loss of its operational character. The terms Steady State and Homeostasis (q.v.) are used in different disciplines to convey a similar meaning.
This term refers to the total set of things. influences, conditions. and forces in relation to some referent. One may speak of the enviromnent within some space or volume (organism, city-, ocean. etc.) or of the environment surrounding some locus (organism, hill. planet, etc.).
The most common usage of the term is in a biological or, more broadly, a natural science sense in reference to the total. surroundings of the earth: air, land, water, flora and fauna (including man), radiation from space, and so on. These surroundings include both active and passive elements. Occasionally the term is used by laymen in a sense differentiating the so-called natural environment from man and his activities, as in the expression "man's destruction of the environment."
The concept of "environment" has proved so meaningful that the word has become incorporated into the jargon of many disciplines with slightly altered references. For example: businessmen may speak of the "business environment," referring to the totality of social economic, political, and technological forces within which their business is conducted. Systems analysts use the term to refer to all relevant elements or forces external to and impacting on a system and also to all relevant elements or forces within a system that impact on components of it.
EN\VIrONM-\ENTAL IMPACT STATEME-NT(S) (ALSO. "IMPACT STATEMTENT (S) 102 STATE-MENT (S) 102 REPORT (S))
An analysis of the environmental implications of actions by agencies of the Federal Government: such analyses are prepared by Federal agencies pursuant to Section 102 of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) (Public Law 91-190, approved Jan. 1. 19T0). Section 102 requires all Federal agencies to interpret and administer all policies. regulations. and laws in accordance with NEPA, to utilize "a systematic, interdisciplinary approach..." in planning and in decision-making which may have an impact on man's environment, and toinclude in every recommendation or report on proT)osJs for legislation and'other major Federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the human environment, a detailed
statement bv the responsible official on(i) the environmental impact of the proposed action, (ii) any adverse environmental effects which cannot
be avoided should the proposal be implemented,
(iii) alternatives to the proposed action.
(iv) the relationship between local -lhort-terin uses of
Imans environilent aInd I the lmiiltel mce and enhan ement of long-term product I ivitv and
v ) any i.... 1i71e Ifln irretOrievlble omitments of
resources which would l)e involved in the proposed action
should it be implemented.
The Counci1 on Environnenta! Quality v (('EQ) is responsible for
(,(h r of preI)arig 102 St at(,nlicU 01n,1 for revewig
er e Ing O wl t(Ao+ ......11_ "Il fo"eitv
Shiin. Pur'sua nt to Ixecutive ()rder 11511. the ('EQ. established (1u IthInes on Ln vi"ronIental Im pact Statements e( I0 ied. Reg. 777,29, April 2:. 1971) : and it has overseen the issuance of the procedures used by Federal agencies to iml)lenwt Sect ion 102 (36 Fed. Reg. 2ft, D)ec. 11, 1971). New revised guideliness for the Preparation of Environmental Impact S:teents were published in the F deral IN) te, r (38 Fed. Reg. 20,)0 2),2 August 1. 1973).
BV 'early 1975. some t)). Environmental impact statements had been received 1by the CEQ, about half from the D)epartmient of Transportation concerning airports and highways. T I ('EQ checks the reports for compliance with NEPA, identifies p)robl)em areas for possible cor0rect ion. and monitors sInficant or contro1versial actions.
Through the 102 Statements, NEPA is established as an information mechanism: it requires systematic comprehensive consideration of environmental implications of actions, evaluation of alternatives, end the development of in-house expertise. The requirements of NEPA including in particular the adequacy of the 102 Statements, have been upheld by the courts.
These statements are circulated in draft form to other agencies for comment, and also are made public. A catalog of 102 Statements is prepared monthly by the CEQ and is called the "102 Monitor."
According to Dorland's Illustrated Medical Dictionary 24th Edition, Ergonomics is the "science relating to man and his work,
embodying the anatomic, physiologic, psychologic, and mechanical principles affecting the efficient use of human energy."
EXTERNALrrITIES (ALSO, EXTERNAL EFFECTS)
This term can be defined in at least three ways: as an economic term, as an element of communications theory, or as a factor relating to social systems. Economically speaking, externalities are costs or benefits not taken into account in a transaction or system of transactions. In this usage, the right of an industry to pollute a stream (i.e., a "free good") when it is not charged against the cost of doing business would )e an Externality. In Communications Theory, an Externality is an aspeet of the operation of a system that generates no Feedback (q.v.). As applied to social systems, an Externality is an aspect of changed environmental stress that has not been perceived or has not motivated an adaptive adjustment of the organism or social system.
FACSIMILE (FACSIMILE 1RA-S MLMs N )
The transmission of a fixed image, like a photograph, handwriting, map, or drawing, by wire or radio. Most facsimile equipment in the United States today is used for telegrams, but other uses are increasing rapidly, including business document transmission, weather charts, newspaper photographs, railroad waybills, andl cloud-cover phliotographs from signals sent by satellites.
For black and white transmission, an image is divided into small areas (each typically .01 x .01 inch) and each area is then transmitted as an electrical signal according to its degree of shading from white to black. Color fascimile transmission is now possible using multiple transmissions representing different colors.
"The control of a machine on the basis of its acva Il performance rather than its expected performance is known as feedback. and involves sensory members which are actuated by motor members and perform the function of tell-tales or monitors-that is, elements which indicate a performance. It is the function of these mechanisms to control the mechanical tendency toward disorganization; in other words, to produce a temporary and local reversal of the normal direction of entropy."
The concept of Feedback is extended by Wiener to human and information systems, as well as to mechanical systems, He writes:
It is my thesis that the physical functioning of the living
individual and the operation of some of the newer communication machines are precisely parallel in their analogous attempts to control entropy through feedback. Both of them have sensory receptors as one state in their cycle of operation; that is, in both of them there exists a special apparatus for collecting information from the outer world at low energy levels, and for making it available in the operation of the individual or of the machine. In both cases these external messages are not taken neat, but through the internal transforming powers of the apparatus, whether it be alive or dead. The information is then turned into a new form available for the further stages of performance. In both the animal and the machine this performance is made to be effective on the outer world. In both of them. their performed action on the outer world, and not merely their intended action, is reported back
to the central regulatory apparatus.9
Elsewhere, Wiener relates Feedback to learning:
* Feedboo-k. the property of being able to adiust future
conduct by past performance. Feedback may be as simple as that of the common reflex. or it may be a higher order feed'Norbert Wiener, The Human Use of HTuman Beings, Cybernetics and Soieety (Garden City. N.Y. : Doubleday & Co., Inc., 1954), pp. 24-25.
Ibid., pp. 26-27.
6-i 64-1 76 ....-- 2
1)ark. in W11irli J)"Ist expert e n or-e i!z 11<0d TlOt oilly to recrtilate
MOVenlents, but al-s
-o whok policies of be avior.
'I pollcv-fvt dhack III:Iv, fill(l oftell (lo"s. to be Nvliat We I.kimw under one aspect as a conditioned. refle.x, and under another as
rW :4 th(l I)OT401-Mance
OT- SV-40111. N.O2r:-ltIvv fee(il)ack (iqTnpens. diminishes, or
Hie perfornitince or ridaptive response of a machine or
The triTisfer of fooJ ener ry froni fle in fllroll rll :I
SC1,10< or T* 1TW:11e(I Illlfl 1w fill'F("] to
"u- f1le ioo l At eacll :1 T)?'(,'P(Wt *(M- to 90 pN.c("W. (r Ole poienti-I el)(,T.Lr I is 1()
Ite Lrri"l T. f1le ills :111(1 of two
1)"Icic T'J' 00r!0701;7?. l(T flol!j ,I qrpen plant
wid on to carnivores (i.e.. aniimd eaters) ,ind tile detrihi, food chain, whichn-oes from dead organiC Matter intO 11liCrOOT-,_ramsn-ls -ind then to detritus-feedinorr orer(anisms (detritivores) iin(l tlloir predators. Food
are not isol,,ited sequences but are interconnected -with one anof I i e r."'
r )RFCV ;T (Ai,,so, FORECASTING)
See ,ilso Futures Research. Prediction.
Forecast i z Prp(li(-finn. Unwevor. it. is
from il in O)nt I- T4oiccf ,f is a T)robabili-tie event
will oveir- liv Oiin sopv, :T)ecified time
p(-lriod. A recnondert offenzz the follo-winory list of methodological types 111,J
cro, : .,. lp"Ict ,inalysiq. k-zc(-,iariobiJl(1ir:r. ,eI.1111111110S. C011textr,-1 iii,,vr)pin zI. prrciirsivo Qt"Iti,41c"ll 1110(1-L
eI C- N 01 t 1) -) 7) 01 S. T'01 ('V (-i ii r e f re e q. networIT IiIstorical analol_(ry. or(,rq f; rM T11 Orlpls. individ ual "expert" forecasting, simulation, and
-Ppro,,irli to tocl,Tioloff v f orcr-i stir (y starts from a base of a cell 11i ill (,I+ ed kiiowWrre in rele-Vant, -(ire,is in or(ier to project Pdture technological p,-iramcters or functional capabilities or both.
(Cf. Forecasting, 'Normative and see Normative.)
FORECASTING, NoPM Ariv
TIJI*: is a form nf forernstinrr in wliirli thc s+,(,)rtinrr point is not the qij(,c-f ion of feasibility but ratber a deteri-nimition as to what option TmLrlit be of szoci(ql v,-Ihie at some future time. ThusT- i i P T1 0 1 0611ni, rurdamertals olf fli!ril .dltton (Phil I 101pbla IT. D. Salind-rQ Co., 1971), P. 63.
When the forecast is "needs oriented", it is termed "normative." In the normative forecast, goals, needs, objectives, or desires are specified, and the forecast works backward to the present to see what capabilities now exist or could be extrapolated to meet future goals. In some cases the goal may even force technology. Indeed, the remoteness of the goals and the priority they have may well determine how many concurrent
approaches are pursued to meet the goal.12
The author adds: "Normative forecasting probably should be called 'goal oriented planning'." On this last point, a respondent comments: "Actually, it is difficult to imagine planning that is not goal-oriented."
(Cf. Forecasting, Exploratory and see Normative.)
FUTURES RESEARCH (ALSO, FuTURism, FORECASTING, FUTURIST)
See Forecast, and Delphi Technique.
Futures Research encompasses various attempts to develop systematic methodologies to identify future Options (q.v.) or alternatives, or to narrow probabilities of time estimates. See James Bright, ed., Technological Forecasting for Indus try and Government (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1968) ; and Cetron and Ralph, Indu8trial Applications of Technological Forecasting, ibid.
GAME T E RY
Game theory can be defined as the application of mathematical analysis to abstract models of conflict situations. Models can consist of parlor games or situations from the behavioral sciences, including economics, sociology, and political science. Parlor games are generally in "extensive" form, that is, they are specified by a set of rules and are terminated after a finite number of moves. Models from the behavioral sciences are generally in "normalized" form, that is, they are specified by a set of pure strategies which could be followed by suitably instructed neutral observers. Pure strategies are complete lists of choices of legal moves covering all possible responses to legal opposing moves. Due to the enormous number of pure strategies possible in even a relatively simple model, applications of game theory to real-life situations have been severely limited by computational difficulties. However, game theory nonetheless has provided a means for analyzing many problems long of interest to philosophers and behavioral scientists. Of primary interest Ias been the con<..pt of the welfare state, I theory of monopoly, the concept of the maximum good for the maximumn
munber, and oligipolistic competition.
The change of undesirable genes to more desirable forms by a p?'oe'iss of direct ed mutation (or) the prospect of being able to insert. deliberately. specific factors (genes) into the genetic material. (or) the direct manipulation of the genetic message by ch:gnging, subtracting, or
i21right. Technical Forecasting for Government and Industry, op. cit., p. 65. Se especially 'Marvin J. Cetron and Thomas I. Monahan. "An Evaluation and Appraisal of Various Approaches to Technologvi*. Forecastingg" In this text.
adding to thie instructions recei ed by the cell. Many discussions of this topic have included suchll subjects as eugenics. artificial inseminatiol. "test-tube babies, cloning, counseling, medical genetics, and 011(hellles.
('hallges in thie lilate, habitability, fauna and flora. ocean,l atillosPhe)re. land masses.or other large elenwnt of the Earth. resulting from human activities. The concept of Global Effect s as a subjet warranting study elnerged front three contemorary developments: (1) the recognition of the Eartlh as a "spaeshi p' possessing finite resources and complex natural relationships on which man depends; (2) the increasing power of ian's technology: and (3) the increasing rate of diffusion of this technology. Fears have been expressed "of both inaininent and potential global environmental catastrophess"
Theories and speculations of the global effects of pollution have ineluded assertions that the buildup of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion might warm up the planet and cause the polar ice to melt, thus raising the sea level several hundred feet and submerging coastal cities.
Equally foreboding has been the warning of the possibility that particles emitted into the air from industrial, energy. and transportation processes might prevent some sunlight from reaching the Earth's surface. thus lowering global temperature and beginning a new ice age. The I.S. Government has virtually eliminated the use of DDT, largely )because of its adverse effects on the reproductive capabilities of birds, and because of its accumulation in other species, including man. Serious questions have been raised about the effects on ocean and terrestrial ecosystemns of systematically discharging into the environment such toxic materials as heavy metals, oil, and radioactive substances; or of such nutrients as phosphorus which can overenrich lakes and coastal waters.14
In general, these are outcomes, options, conditions, or relationships of large or national scope. held socially desirable by a consensus of persons, by groups, influential spokesmen, or political decisionmakers. They may be formalized, informal, or tacit. There are many mechanisms by which national goals are proposed, considered, and promulgated; there are also many ways by which they are modified, superseded, abandoned. or reduced in force."5
National goals may be formulated of different scope or character. For example, there are philosophical goals that state a nation's values
1a These three definitions. in the order given, appear In: (1) Donald Hulsingh. "Should 'Man Control His Genetic Future?". Zygon, vol. 42 (February 1969). p. 1.9: (2) Gordon Rattray Taylor, The Biological Time Bomb (New York: New American Library. 198rq) p. 159: and (3) I. Michael Lerner, Heredity, Evolution, and Society (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman & Co.. 1968), p. 273.
1 PRport of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP). Man's Impact on the Global EnvPironment, Assessment and Recommendations for Action, Report of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems8-SCEP (Cambridge, Mass.: Massachusetts lnsttiute of Technology, 1970), p. 4.
O For a general discussion of national goals, see the Report of the National Goals Staff: "Toward Balanced Growth: Quantity with Quality" (Washington, D.C.. U.S. Government Printing Office, July 4. 1970). See also: Franklin P. Huddle, "The Evolution and Dyanmics of National Goals in the T'nited States," Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, U.S. Senate, 92d Cong.. 1st Sess. (Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, Aug. 6. 1971). For a methodology of "Costing Out" national goals, see Leonard Lecht, "Goals. Priorities, and Dollars" (New York: The Free Press, 1966).
or formal governmental purposes (such as liberty, welfare, tranquility, and security). There are social goals, expressing aspirations for improvement in a social function (such as literacy, or living standards), or the correction of social defects (such as crime rates or ill health). Political or legislative goals may take the form of formal statements of desired public objectives issued in legislative form by a law-making body (such as the "Finding of the Congress that...."). Agency goals are expressed initially in the form of legislation-the orgamc acts creating departments and agencies of government and defining their missions; these are interpreted administratively as expanded mission statements and communications to the public. Pursuant to the agency goals are program goals, and at a still finer-grain level of specificity are project goals.
National goals can provide a frame of reference to establish priorities to which science policy can respond in the location of resources, and program selection and emphasis. See "Science. Growth, and Society, A New Perspective," Report of the Secretary-General!'s Ad Hoe Group on New Concepts of Science Policy-the "Brooks Report" (Paris: Organisation for Cooperation and 'Development, March 28, 1971).
Originally, tools and other household, farm, and repair items. With the advent of the computer. the term has come to mean the computer itself and its associated equipment, like control consoles, memory units, key-sort and card-punch equipment, tape recording and drive equipment, print-out units. and telecommunications terminal and transmission equipment. Computer hardware is distinguished from the programming procedures used to operate it. These are called "Software" (q.v.).
According to Vebster's Third New International Dictionary, "lHeuristic" refers to an approach "valuable for stimulating or conducting empirical [q.v.] research but unproved or incapable of proof-often used of arguments, methods. or constructs that assume or postulate what. remains to be proven or that lead a person to find out for himself."
The study of the mental processes and stasres involved in solving problems, including the perception of the problem. obtaining relevant information, a passive period of waiting for insight, and the solution of the problem, or insight.
An approach to research, analysis, or other activities characterized ly an emphasis on completeness or wholeness; opposed to the atomistic approach. It is related to the synergistic approach with its emphasis on the organic or functional relationship of the whole to its parts, and on the whole as being greater than the sum of its parts.
See Synergistic Effect (s).
In biological usage, the term refers to a tendency of organisms to maintain uniformity or stability. For example, the human body normally maintains its internal temperature at about 98.60 F. The term has been applied by analogy to the maintenance by any system of a steady state condition of dynamic equilibrium.
IMPAr.r (AS IN IMPACT ANALYSIS, TECHiiNOLOGICAL IMPACT, ETC.)
For one formal statement of the scope of this term, see Environmental Impact Statements. However, the term is far from precise in most usages. The recognition of impacts tends to be a progressive, repetitive process because the impacts on man and his environment from any given technology, process, or system appear to be almost limitless. Some impacts are quantifiable, and some not. Various kinds of impact can have varying degrees of directness or remoteness as between cause and effect. (A classic example of remoteness is the illustration of the light sensitivity of silver salts as a cause of divorce-in which the chain of causality encompasses the Hollywood subculture.) The concept of Technology Assessment (q.v.) is the analysis of "total impact."
IMPACT STATEMENT (8)
See Environmental Impact Statements.
Refers to any relatively small, usually positive, change in anything that can he quantified, like a change in temperature caused by a change in applied heat, or a change in demand caused by a change in supply.
In the jargon of public policy analysis, governmental decision making apparently based on little else than a decision to make small yearly across-the-board increases in existing programs is often termed "incrementalism," and is sometimes also disparagingly referred to as the "art of muddling through." However, many social processes show general trends over long periods of time, as, for example, the "secular" trend in reduced purchasing power of any national currency. Incremental adjustments are normally made in response to such secular trends .as a matter of course.
Moreover, in any complex social process involving a long learning period (for one example, see Technology Assessment), incremental improvement is inherent and instant perfection improbable.
See Side Effects.
See Communication(s) (and Communication Theory).
Supporting elements. Usually applied in connection with some catecory of social, economic, or cultural activity. For example, a nation's scientific Infrastructure might be sanid to ineie arrangements for
financial support of scientific research, basic scientific educational institutions, the manufacture of precision measuring instruments, the management and dissemination of scientific data and information, the organization of scientific societies, and arrangeni-its for interpreting to the public the meaning of scientific achievements. A nation's technological infrastructure depends on many supporting conditions, including availability of capital, technical know ledge, favorable governmental structure, entrepreneurial attitude, effective distribution and marketing system, transportation, communications, health services and facilities, education, and many more.16
Innovation is a term used to signify either the product of a complex series of activities, or the process itself. It includes (1) a perception of a problem or opportunity, perhaps using Exploratory Forecasting (see Forecasting, Exploratory) ; (2) a "first conception" or invention of an original idea; (3) a succession of interwoven steps of research, development, engineering, design, market analysis, and management decisionmaking; and (4) a "first realization" or "culmination" when an industrially successful thing-a product. indimtrial procedure, or techniques-is first used in an economic, industrial, or social context (vertical transfer of technology), and perhaps also the adoption of the process or manufacture of the product by others in competition (diffusion or lateral transfer of technology).
Although sometimes used to signify the process itself, the word is also used as a modifier, in the term "innovative process."'
Innovation, according to one view, should not be confused with: (1) scientific discovery, although relevant discoveries may be incorporated in an innovation; (2) invention, although an invention frequently provides the initial concept leading to an innovation; or (3) marginal improvement in an existing product, process, or technique. However, how much more than marginal an innovation ought to be to qualify as a true innovation is hard to determine.
Many inventions or new scientific or technological ideas do not go through the entire complex of activities from conception to culmination; many are abandoned at intermediate steps. Only those that go through the entire process and emerge as new and useful commercial products processes, or techniques can be accurately termed innovations.17
In describing a quick search of the literature of Innovation, Jervis identifies the definition in the preceding paragraph p11is two others:
An innovation is an idea, practice or object perceived as new
byan individual. It matters little, so far as human behavior is concerned, whether or not an idea is objeotively' new as measured by the lapse of time since its first use or discovery.
Technological innovation (is) the technical, industrial and
commercial steps which lead to the marketing of new manu16 See: U.S. Congress. Houwe, Committee on Foreign Affairs. The Evolution of InternationOa Techno7ogy. Prepared for the Subcommittee on National Security Policy and Scientific Developments by the Science Policy Research and Foreign Affairs Divisions, Legislative Reference Service, Library of Congress (Washington, D.C. : U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1970) ; pp. 35-41. [Committee Print.]
7 Adapted from Science, Technology. and Innovation, prepared for the National Science Foundation (Columbus: Battelle Memorial Institute, 1973).
fact tred products and to the comnmern-inal use of new technical
processes and equipment.
These definitions, taken from academic stu dies and government reports, show that there are three sit tu tionMs in which the designation 'innovation' may be used. The first example considers the attributes of some specific item. he it an idea, product. process or technique, and uses concepts of novelty or originality in classifying it as "Ian innovationn. The next approach takes a different viewpoint anl discards as relatively unimplortanit any notions of absolute onvelty and concentrates instead o 1 te originality as perceived by a pacific adapter.
This approach, however, retains fou on t lie innovation as a "thing." Bit the last dlefinit lon is anII exanple of many that see innovation as a set of activities process. which. transforms ideas, concepts or scientific anld technoloical potential into comn mercially available and useful products processes or
t echni quest.
Process definitions are in some wavs the most useful if one
is considering innovation from a manrgerial or decisionmiiaking viewpoint, because they can focus attention on the
critical problem areas on which the outcome depends.'8
See also Techlnology Transfer.
See Research, Interdisciplinary.
Intergovernmental Science refers to institutional mechanisms, policies, or programs which involve the interaction of various governmental units-Federal. State, local, county, regional-for the purpose of encouraging the utilization of scientific and technical resources in meeting government responsibilities. Intergovernmental science may involve the establishment of "partnerships" or intergovernmental arrangements designed to promote the transfer and utilization of existing technology from one governmental level to another, or to generate capabilities for different governmental units to support individual research and development activities and develop needed scientific and technical resources. Intergovernmental science activities may be targeted at such public needs as transportation facilities; health care services; environmental protection; land use management; housing; and police and fire protection. Institutional or program mechanisms may involve the provision of financial support, manpower training facilities, technical assistance, information systems, or opportunities for cooperative research and development priority setting and prograi formulation.
The conception of a new product or process. A respondent suggests: "A spontaneous creative act on the part of an individual." However, the spontaneous creative act might conceivably be performed by a group working in concert; moreover, the act has been known to occur a .Terv1 P.. "The Changing Pattern of Innovation," Physics in Technology, vol. 6 (July 1975), p. 170.
more or less simultaneously with remote inventors as'n the classic instance of aluminum, reduction. In any event, the concept of a "flashi of insight" appears to be involved. A respondent suggests reference to Fred Scher, "Invention and Innovation in the Watt-Boulton SteamEngine Venture," Technology and Culture (Spring, 1965), as an illustration of the invention -innovation process.
Inventions can range from the novel combination of 'known elements to the conception of an altogether novel principle. However, the termn is not commonly applied to the creation of a large system (such as satellite communications system-s or air defense systems) although these may incorporate applications of a number of inventions.
Aone-way process, or alternatively a process that can be reversed only with great difficulty. An illustration is the comment by Oscar Wilde on viewing Niagara Falls. He agreed that it was a remarkable sight, but that it would be even more remarkable if it went the other way. An example of irreversibility in the physical world would be a wet chemical reaction in which one of the products was removed from the solution, as either a precipitate or a gas.
One concept of irreversibility relates it to Entropy (q.v.). Every closed system tends to run down. In this sense, irreversibility is a qualityv inherent in closed systems found i n nature.
In the narrower sense of social use of technology, irreversibility is found in the growing commitment or dependency of a social system or subsystem on a particular artifact or assortment of technological artifacts-pesticides, automobiles, telephones, drugs, vaccination, etc. Other irreversible effects are those related to the consumption of fossil fuels, or the extraction and use of minerals from concentrations in nature that~ result in their- unrecoverable dispersal. For example, the making of graphite from petroleum, or the use of cobalt salts to make paint driers. Although irreversible effects are inherent in natural systems, the rate at which they occur is partially determined by human decisions.
The concept of irreversibility may depend primarily on the factor of time. For example. a catastrophic, large-scale generation of radioactiLvity might cause a train of events that could not be reversed in time to prevent permanent damage to man's environment.
One respondent comments: "'Most situations that one -would judge to be irreversible are so not because of physical barriers but owing to the magnitude of cost attached to reversal. This is particularly true of the commitment of social systems to given technologies."'
An imprecise term conveying a sense of non-progress or level of performance, as measured by some. parameter or set of parameters, below that of some referent industry or group of industries. See also Technological Lag and Technology &}p.
Lead time is the time between two implicitly or explicitly designated
events, the second one generally being aii oljJCtive or goal., In r-esearch
and dei-Plopment, lead tinie usmally.refers to t1w tirne between the be("11111M(r of a project. Ilke the oonimitme nt of ftinds to develop -in airplane. and the project's succes,,fid cornpletioji. -NN-hich may be when a successfiil prototyl)e flies or when, new planes are in mass production. However, tlie tel in li:is come to he- ar)1)11(,(l widely to any preparatory period. deci ion sc(juenco, or time la (Y hphveon signal an response. Tn 0011(Tpf. tI1(' t0l-11) derIN-CS fi-om an 111',110!YV With SJ)0T't!:Z-the throwincr of a ball to "lead" the rumi" llfr TTMN-er, or aiming a shotgun in adVIMI('(" Of a ffi-ln bir(l. Tho PERT (q.v.) concept links the sequence of event'-; in a process ; witli finie lines, with the length of eaeli line indicative of tll(, len '(rth of time (lead time) reqiiired to complete or 1)repare for the event that follows it.
1x)n.(-r1tudina1 clata are data ,O-)out a specific population over an extonded period of time, Crenerall-v months or ve,,irq. in which the researcher return,,; at intervals to collect identical kin& of data from the Qanw population under sNdy. The term is frequently applied to data collected for social research, incliidincr statiqirs of individual an(l fal-ollv incomes, educational levels, places of residence. re1i fflous affiliations, jobs, attitudes, ana political and otber beliefs. The
b( ,z-se0iomal data,"' which nre. di
T-T-n m:ly contrasted with, "cros, ( ta fo r
different cri-oups at one time. Longitudinal data collection. when feasiblo. is superior in information product to croQs-s,_etir)nal data collecflon. Tt represents a more advanced procedure, particularly in the, so(-ial sciences.
Whon longritiidimal data r,,i-Prnt be cnll(,(,t(,d forq o ill, ti
overran exfi-n(led period of tim(,Nraiis(, of time constraints
or th.p dl zporpion of the population iindrr stiidy. data-mntbering procedure TMav 1)e, applied to different, bi,'t liopeflilly comparable. popu'1 41 roacli) to approxilati oTiq ,it differe-it times (the croczs-sectiwL. I app mate lonlcritnclinal data collection. ffo-wever. the irappropri"Ito 11,;e of cross-spetional data to approximate Ion gitudinal &ita invalidate,
or tit lp,,ist renrlpr it relative! lv i.i,; eless b(,(-ai.s(-, of tl)f, assumptiOT!': Introduced to qualify its inappropriate use.
Lr-rT)TT, (ALW). Yj:-r-LkT)PTTF,, AN-T) 'rrr'TT-_N-0PTT0Br) (AN-TONY-31 : T rCTTN0PJT1Lr)
Aroorrlinrr to the 11t11 FClit;n7l of tll(, Frovolrm'le ;'n PT-;f'qPni0'1. Necl T'll(ld. a '.P('rQon of W090C ;rtellp&." iT1 T F (i.
h.1(1 1' -('T' torimnted by boys in 1)is villam,- liad T)iirsilorl flir'M ipto, a h ol i Fe. (,) P 1. when 6ev esctr)e(l. b:id voT)tf-,(I Ns v-rafli on F-1-P-0 fr,,IM(,q liserl In -)':11- ing ho iery. Tliere,ifter in t1w oo-,nmimitv. i-l)en micoliief
dn-J"r, to equipme'lit it 1-ri z T)lamo(l-morp or less n7l 'T ild(l." Tlieii iP 1q11, 'I c701 10,q Of 0!'!:,7,'1T!17P(1 r*(-)tQ Ollt iTi qn(1 ,iroii,,nd oo-nocntrafed
tl-r.)ttPrtion affqiTi :t Tiow tf, Kfile macliimry wliiclii tlirw f(,,,)rrd wmild
teelinolorrioal ii- )ernplovi)ieTif. Ti)- 'rioffI1,-oiifT1) IR16. Tll(,,,, were terminate(l I)v a coTO)ir'9tinn Of renr(' 'Zivv
plus retm-ninrr promerity. TI)e term "Luddif ";'" 21,11P11
generalized d to incliide any or!-rn ii7. d o
to tlicQe rioters. Tt. beeam(, Cr ve
ment against labor-saving machinery, in much the same fashion as the term "saboteur" (originally referring to a worker who threw a wooden shoe or sabot into the machinery) has been generalized to mean any form of politically motivated destruction.
The term Neo-Luddite, however, refers to a quite different motivation for hostility to technological innovation. In general, it applies to those opposed to technology on value grounds, rather than for economic reasons. According to this point of view, opposition to technology is a moral position; economic determinism has been found inadequate to regulate the production and adoption of good technology while restraining the bad, or-according to another view-there are so many technological innovations that society is increasingly incapable of adjusting to them.
MIHD is a technology under development to produce electric energy in commercial quantity by burning coal or other fuels to obtain a very hot ionized gas (cf. Plasma) which is then passed directly through a magnetic field to generate electricity. Some experts suggest that MHD can be developed to a stage at which it would surpass current methods of generating electricity in thermal efficiency, operating costs, and environmental effects.
The application of scientific and technological principles and training, operations research, and associated discipline. to the maintenance of a high level of productivity at minimum cost in industrial enterprises. It includes such approaches as analytical study, application of improved methods and systems and operating procedures, quantity and quality measurements and controls, safety measures, and personnet dinimmstrat icn.
The difficulty in defining this word is in determining, what to exclude. One common meaning is: "A solid substance having a certain degree of permanence and intended either alone or combined with other objects, for well-specified uses." This definition is defective on many counts; it excludes liquids and gases. in which forms many useful industrial materials appear. Another defect is in the implicit assumption that a materin] must have present ntity. The implie"tion of this assumption is that a substance may be converted by technology from a non-matterial to a, material, and then later be converlted back into a non-material again. Another awkward complication is presented by the notion that a substance ceases to be a material when it is changed by processing.
For public policy puroses, Title II o Public Law 91-319. the Resolnroe Recovery Act of 1970 (Title IT berlin the pen rte tie of "National Materials Policy Act of 1970"), defines actionon 205) materi-als as "natural resources intended to be utilized by industry for the production of goods, with the exclusion of food." The exclusion of food in this case is arbitrary and functional, rather than logical.
It is n11ested that i llte modern sense of addressin thle "Materials ( le" (
All materials employed by man move in a "total materials cycle." From the earth and its atmosphere man takes ores, hydrocarbons, wood. oxygen. and other substances in crude form and extracts. refines, purifies, and converts them into simple metals, chemicals, and other basic raw materials. Hie modifies these raw materials to form alloys, ern 'iics. electronic materials. polymers, composites, and other com)positions to meet performance requirements and from them makes shapes or parts for assembly into products. When its useful life is ended, the product returns to the earth as waste; or it may be dismantled to recover basic materials that reenter the cycle.
Implicit in the operation of the total materials cycle are strong three-way interactions amonz materials, the environment, and energy supply and demand. The condition of the environment depends in large degree on how carefully man moves materials through the cycle, at each stage of which impacts occur. As materials traverse the cycle they mnay represent an investment of energy in the sense that the energy expended to extract a metal from ore. or to reduce aluminum fromI its oxide. need not be expended again if the metal is recycled. Compare closed cycle.
Materials management is the application of scientific and technological principles and training to achieve the optimal usage of materials resources. It is a broad concept, not only because of the scope of the meaning of materials (see Material), but also because it encompasses all aspects of materials extraction, processing, utilization, marketin. disposal, and reuse. It thus includes such concepts as Resource Recovery (q.v.) and Recycling (q.v.). which represent specific manaement approachlies to materials conservation and use. Traditionally considered more narrowly as the manipulation of materials by business and industry, it has come to include also the effect of materials use onl society andl the consequence of such use. Thus, it relies heavily upon the application of System(s) Analysis (q.v.) to achieve an optimal mix of various scientific, technological, economic, social, ethical, and political factors which impinge on the development and use of material resources for the good of society as a whole. Increasingly. a primary objective of materials management is the achievement, inso-
far as practicable. of a Closed Cycle (q.v.) for materials to esure that maximum benefit is obtained from materials at minimum overall cost.
M[ATERLXLS POLICY, NATIONAL
The identification of those aspects of the total Materials Cycle (q.v.) for which concerted national actions will probably serve the publiC interest, and the prescription of what these actions should be. Title It of the Resource Recovery Act of 1970 (Public Law 91-512, approved October 2, 1970) is entitled the National Materials Policy Act of 1970. Its purpose is to "enhance environmental quality and conserve materials by developing a national materials policy to utilize present resources and technology more efficiently, to anticipate the future materials requirements of the Nation and the world, and to make recommendations on the supply, use, recovery, and disposal of materials." The Act created the National Commission on Materials Policy to make a full and complete investigation and study for the purpose of developing a national materials policy; the final report of the Commission was made to the Congress and the President in June 19'0.19
MBO MANAGEMENTET BY OBJECTiVES)
Management by Objectives, a term attributed to Peter F. Drucker 2_' is a method of managing "by which members of an organization jointly establish its goals."
Each member, with assistance from his superior, defines his
area of responsibility; sets objectives that clearly state the results expected of him; and develops performance measures that can be used as guides for managing his unit and that will serve as standards for evaluating his contribution to the organization. There are four basic components of the MBO systern: setting objectives, developing action plans, conducting
periodic reviews, and appraising the annual performance.
The organizational benefits of MBO are claimed to be improved management performance, planning, coordination, control, flexibility, superior-subordinate relationships, and personal development.21
Drucker characterizes MBO as a philosophy of management which:
rests on an analysis of the specific needs of the management group and the obstacles it faces. It rests on a concept of human action, behavior, and motivation. Finally, it applies to every manager, whatever his level and function, and to any organization whether large or small. It ensures performance by converting objective needs into personal goals.22
A recent article in Publie Administration Review discusses public sector MBO and PPBS (q.v.) and provides the following comparison of the major features of the two management techniques 23:
19 U.S. Congress, Senate. Material Needs and the Environment Today and Tomorrow: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy, 93d Cong. 2d Sess. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. June 1973). [Document No. 93-97.3 20 Drucker, Peter F., Practice of Management (London : Pan. 196S), 479 p. 21 Reif. William E. and Gerald Bassford, "What MB0 Really Is," Business Horizons, vol. 16 (June 1973), p. 26.
22 Drucker, Peter F., Management: Tasks, Responsibilities, Practices (New York: Har per and Row, Publishers, 1974). p. 442.
23De Woolfson, Bruce H., Jr., "Public Ssctor MfBO and PPB: Cross Fertilization In Management Systems," Public Administration Review, vol. 35 (July-August 1975), pp. 387-395.
[C]ompaing MBO and PPB is like comparing apples with
oranges. The two entities are not viewed strictly as alternative management systems. Rather, they have a somewhat different focus and tend to exist in different organizational environments. In particular, PPB is primarily viewed as a system for conceiving. developin, and coming new policy thrusts and is located organizationally near the top of large, sprawling bureaucracies. MBO conversely, is appropriate at any organizational level and is basically a tool for monitoring ongoing programs. The distinction however is very ill-defined; for in 1MBO the process of deciding what one's objectives for the future will be must certainly relate very closely to the choice of new policies and programs. PPB on the other hand cannot function in an operational vacuum but must at least monitor, if not motivate, the accomplishment of ongoing programs as a means for refining the basis of continuing analysis. Also, as evidenced by the recent MBO efforts in the Office of Management and Budget, the two systems will at times be superimposed upon one another, will follow one another in succession, or may in fact exist side by side.
SuMMARY oF FATUrmEs
Makes objectives explicit; recognizes Projects requirements and resource immulti-objective situation plications in future years
Identifies conflicting objectives Emphasizes analysis of alternatives Provides for participative management Utilizes analytical expertise Ensures a control mechanism by pro- Provides for detailed costing of selected viding for feedback and measurement alternatives of accomplishment
Fosters managerial acceptance of re- Encompasses exhaustive and mutually sponsibility and evaluation of man- exclusive program structure agers by results
Encompasses little formal administra- Utilizes numerous decision documents tive machinery
A single large operation or task, or a continuing specific function. Examples of missions might include the construction of a number of housing units, capture of a hill, development of a prototype fast breeder reactor, maintenance of national air superiority, achievement of improved pollution control or automobile safety. A distinction may be made between an agency of government performing a continuous or repetitive function such as budgetary control or revenue administration, and an agency responsible for carrying out some one of the missions listed. The latter might be called a "Mission Agency" but probably not the former. Mission Research is a term with several possible alternative meanings: it encompasses exploratory research, applied research, and supporting research to advance the general capability of a Mission Agency to perform; and also research of these types in support of a specific task or mission as more narrowly defined. It is with respect to the latter type that the study, Project Hindsight, was addressed.
As used in science policy literature, the word signifies a simplified description of a process, or system, or the interaction of either with its environment. Usually a model is expressed in quantitative terms so that it can be exercised mathematically. A nonmathematical model is sometimes called a Paradigm (q.v.).
With respect to the science policy meaning of the word, a respondent notes: "An important thing about the model is that you try to walk the very fine line between shoving in to much detail (an d then you can't u:e the model in practice) and lav in'r o0- csential details (in which case it will lead you astray)."
There are also two older meanings of the word Model: (1) a typical
-unit (e.g., late-model automobile), and (2) a reduced-scale structure to test performance or other characteristics of a design before going to full-scale prototype construction. From the second meaning is also derived the idea of a "scale model"-a reduced-size simulation of a structure that may or may not be operational.
An activity that evaluates on a continuous or periodic basis the Feedback (q.v.) from an operation against established criteria.
See Research, Interdisciplinary.
Although there is no agreed definition of the term "multinational corporation," it may be defined simply as a business enterprise conducting transnational operations in two or more countries.
Some authorities define it as a company whose foreign sales
have reached a ratio of, say, 25% (or some other share) of total sales. Some find the definition in organization: i.e., a company that has global product divisions rather than an international division. Others look to the distribution of ownership or to the nationality mix of managers or directors as the determining characteristic. Professor Raymond Vernon of Harvard University, an authority on the multinational corporation, regards it as a company that attempts to carry out its activities on an international scale, as though there were no national boundaries, on the basis of a common strateg-y directed from a corporate center. According to Vernon., affiliates are locked together in an integrated process and their policies are determined by the corporate center in terms of decisions relating to production, plant location, product mix, marketing, financing, etc. Mr. Jacques Maisonrouge, President of IBMI World Trade Corporation, characterizes the multinational corporation as one that: (a) operates in many countries; (b) carries out research, development and
I : III i 11 11 1 :lct I I l'i I 1 11 t I I CM I TIT Yi(- .. I c) 1-1c n 111111till'.1tion"ll management mid 00 lins T11111till:ltiolial Stock ow1wi-ShIp.21
Some reasons often (Yiven for U.S. firms becoming imiltinational
(1 0 11
I I I I f I I
I-c(luiT,41111(lilt's ('s;I-lialler tapPI 1,1 d I tl,(,I.l I I I'll -a I rcqu I I*(,]) w ill the like) :
To be as close as possildc to dw cil-tmlw! lo zuhlpt' to 11'.) Ileeds
2MI Prn".'do t"
T o I! w (.t : I W ; it *- plin-i ;1 "_- 1"(,l ici(- I )Y hc11I1_(r 'x i!11111
I I I' lilt M 14 jl''( :
T;) I'l-Iddcm-, ;Iiip)-z(,(1 I)\- rjv(pteiit strikes at,
To 1I.cep fmvi -(,]I firIlls -o hll-- v c(Mll)(1 local]N- flint the v ',annot elfcctiveiv I"HIII(Ill eXp()I-[ CjIjIpjl(rjjS 111110(1 at Ili(,
T o k cl()<( to TiltItcri,11-: 1:0111'(1(11_ : :111d
To fon '' -ril Nwa] colfl(,111" requireillents.T lic, iiiinilwr ol' Illulti"I'm (o),11 c().P(W. '011. froll) i--) to
i:-o (1wCliwd. The Han-ard
I I I I I I I a t 0 11 : I I
001111)11s( nhwit of tlw world's total,
hastaken the firms listed in flie Fortune crrolip of the 500 lar(rest firms 1111d thlr)-( fs of pe-cent (,,i- more in
( ,,Itorpr',- es locnt0d ill Six 01* MM,(, fi)I-elml comitries. 71"ne fii-ins that und,,,r tbi- (Icfli' tloil wflre extellCZlvel an(l accomit fnr ql)wit of all 17.S. forel gm clirect
MVO 4111011f: AT110111 r Qj, -'t i:t !, nines as GeTler"I I Motors.,
CI 11, \-Acv. _'F(wd, m_(rer. (,iid 11 1'. Tn additioii- another
100 foreigrii firins compi-Ise the major imiltinatinnals, based ill other countries, incluo-IM(r cuell. companies ns '_Yestle. Sliell. -cmd Unilever (Lever Brothers).
Multli,,ationil, corlmi-.Jions are amoncr t1w -,vo1-lXs (riant firm- : annun] :z,! 1(,--: of at least. .-'100 million are coi-,isi(Icre(I a mininlilill Size, for
to 1070 G(, ,-I,-ral Yotw-- --,-vnl g 2". Stan(fiird Oil
7"llik-Z 27, am] Fnrd Vot-()-T- nanks in ,I of com)tries
and miilt-M1,f;c)n,,d c,)rpor,itiow- bythe corponatimis' gross annual sah-:4 and Hie comifries" trrn!z s national Proo-1IletS.27 'NTATERTALS POLICY
s'-e Matvrials Policy, Xtttiollal.
See Feedback. NEO
,,,, v.s. r)Pj,,nrtm(,nt of Commorce, The 110tinational Corp.: Studies on U.S. Foreign Invc,-t.-ii ci t ( W n -hin rton : Govt. PrInt. Off., -March 1972), p. 7. 27, J,(,jq)rtp(l in rndwqtrY Werk, Jan. Q. 1972. p. 23. J;mpl Brincroft, The Multinational Corp.: A Parkground Survey, C.R.S. Rppnrt
72-244-r (Washfn-ton : TihvrrY of Dec. 20. 1972). pp. 1-2.
2 1.(,ster R. Brown, "The MultInationnIs and the Nation-State," Vi8ta, vol. 8, June 1973. pp. 50-51.
NET ENERGY ANALYSIS
In addition to land, labor, and capital (the commonly costed factors of production), it takes energy to produce energy. Net Energy may be defined as the amount remaining for consumption after the port ion required for exploration, production, upgrading, and delivery has been subtracted from the total energy initiCalyv available in a specified system.
Net Energy Analysis is an evolving system of analysis currently being investigated and applied by, for example, the National Scie nice Foundation, the Energy Research and Development Administratio't. and the Department of the Interior, to evaluate better the real enter ry costs of developing and using various energy sources. Energy itself ithe parameter used to measure impacts in this method. "Since energy is the one commodity present in all processes and since there is no sub stitute for it. using energy as the physical measure of environmenta' and social impacts, of material, capital, and manpower requirements. and of reserve quantities reduces the need to compare or add 'apples and oranges.' 2
Net Energy Analysis may prove to be a useful decision-making too! for public policy analysis.
NIH (NOT INVENTED IERE) SYNDROME
The "not invented here" syndrome is alleged to be a characteristic of research and development. Its major symptom is a lack of interest by professionals in new ideas which have originated outside of their establishment, or perhaps even in another division of their estal-ishment.
The N-I syndrome may be considered an organizational pathologT, prevalent at both the research and management levels, which impedes communication (q.v.), innovation (q.v.). and technology transfer (q.v.). It is caused by a conviction. based on institutional pride or confidence, that "if it were any good we would have thought of it first."
Pollution may be defined as any deleterious and unacceptable sub stance or effect which cannot be assimilated or recycled by a system.2
Noise is a specific example of an effect which may be deleterious and unacceptable to many persons, depending upon its level. Noise is measured in decibels (dB), which is a logarithmic measure of sound energy used because of the nature of human response to sound, that is, a sound with ten times the energy of another is perceived by humans as being twice, not ten times, as loud.
On the decibel scale. zero is an arbitrary level corresponding to the threshold of hearing for the average person. A rise of ten decibels corresponds to a tenfold increase in sound energy level, which is perceived as a doubling in loudness.
2SGilliland. Martha W.. "Energy Analysis and Public Policy," Science, vol. 189 (Sep. tember 26. 1975). p. 1056.
Paul Sarnoff. The New York Times Encyclopedic Dictionary of the Environment (New York: Quadrangle Books, 1971), p. 234.
Thie following table lists some typical sounds and their decibel values.30
IIouse party, 4-piece rock band ----------------------- 115
Pneumatic hammer. G ft away- -------------------- 108
Walking Hear a helicopter ----------------------------------104
outside. jet taking off at airport -------. ---------------------102
Triin st pping in station 1 ------.... ---------------------- 100
Pushing a power lawn mo1110wer_ --------------- - -------At a seat in subwlay, wilndlows open ----- -------------------- 95
1Inside a jet airllane o n tak-off--- -- --------------------- 94
Screaming child -----------------------------------------------92
Sports car running in street ---------------------------------- 8
Garbage truck, 200 ft away - - -----------------------------85
Inside a city bus ---- ----------------------------------------85
Traffic at a residential intersection...... ---------------------------- 82
Large office .- ---. --------------------------------- 60
Lo)ng-ternl exposure to noise levels above 80 dB may cause hearing impairment; at about 130 to 140 dB, noise will become painful.
Noise pollution can )e abated by quieting the source itself, enclosing the source. isolating or dampirg vibrations caused by the source, absorbing the noise in soundproofing materials, and protecting persons with ear protection devices.
This important adjective encompasses all values, value orientations, and value-motivated activities. In contradistinction to the scientific method, which aspires to be value-free, any normative procedure or activity concentrates on the assigning of social values. It is the distinction made by Hume between "is" and "ought". Thus, normative forecasting of technology represents an attempt to identify what kinds of innovation will be needed (i.e., what society will desire or ought to have) by some future date. Normative analysis attempts to determine what is good or bad; science characterizes what happens and why. (See Forecasting, Normative.)
Rational and unbiased; conducted, as research and analysis, in conformance with the canons of the scientific method (cf. Research). Not contaminated by normative values or emotional associations. An advantage commonly ascribed to Objective knowledge is that it is cumulative, and can be integrated into structures of rational association. No such claim is made for subjective knowledge.
OBJC Txa (noun)
An end or goal toward which efforts are directed.
Commitments assumed by an agency under an authorization to be supported by a future appropriation.
so Migdon Segal. Noise Control Legilation (Revised) CRS Report 72-190-SP (Washington: Library of Congress, Aug. 29, 1972), p. 2.
"An experimental and apphied science [q.v] devoted to observing, 'understanding, and predicting the behavior of purposeful manmachine system."1 31 The discipline of Operations Research is inherently pragmatic; its techniques are specific to the. environment. the problem, and the use of the product. H-owever. thez methIlod is that of Science (q.v.). A distinction can be made between Operations Research and Tech-nology Assessment (q.v.) in that the former seeks to achieve Optimization ( q.v.) of the measurable parameters of the system, -while the latter consists of an evaluation of all consequences, to the extent feasible. in order to formulate public policy concerning the managzement and control of the system to satisfy broad criteria of the public interest. Characteristic ally. Operations Research relies extensively upon quantitative mathematical methods.
A tendency is noted to confuse Operations Research as the generalized use of quantitative methods of analysis with the~ specific use of some methodology enjoying a particular vooie. For example. linear program(in) ing, game theoryadqeigter are all leadinocandidates. However, Operations Research encompasses all of these and many others besides.
As defined by Lord Rothsch-ild, Operational Research is "the application of objective and quantitative criteria to decision-making previously tackled by experience, intuition, or prejudice. Called operations research in the U.S.A." It is. he notes, a subdivision of Applied Research (see Research, Applied).
A system concept under which significant properties are identified as desirable or undesi rable, and a determination made as to what quantitative level of each represents the best balance of total performance under a given set of constraints.
A choice among alternatives. In Technology Assessment, Policy Analysis, and PPBS (q.v.) such options are characterized as fully as possible in quantitative terms-as to their costs and benefits, including important second-order consequences-in order to establish a basis to aid in making rational management decisions.
A respondent suggests that too much stress may here be put on the quantitative aspect of Option Analysis (q.v.) Some technical issues defy quantification, such as for example, how much resources to devote to basic research or how to allocate between two claimant disciplines. Moreover, options may involve normative values that are not subject to quantification at all, yet may be brought into the assessment process, such as for example. impairment of scenic values, public apprehension of physical hazard, or convenience of the consumer.
OPT-ION\ AN ALYSTS
Both terms of this title are separately defined. Together, they refer to one of the functional elements of Program Evaluation or of Fula"Operations Research." The Journal of the Operations Research Society of America, vol. 19, No. 5 (September 1971), p. 1138.
lures IResearch and Policy Analysis (q.v.) by which the comparative merit of an alternative way of achieving a program objective can be determined and the alternative assigned the requisite resources. The analysis can be of a single alternative, or a comparison of several.
A setI of reIationsl ips) like a model, but more abstract and less (uantitatively defined than a model. Thomas Kuhn defines paradigms as universally recognized scientific achievements that for a time provide model problems and solutions to a conunity of practitioners." Avres defines it as "a structured set of axioms, assumptions, concepts, hypotheses, models, and theories. e.g., Newtonian physics or Marxist e ono IiCS. 3
PIARAMTEIR(s (also, Parametric)
A quantity or characteristic having fixed values for a particular subiect for separately indicated cases or conditions. For example, the strength or resistance to failure of a given material (one parameter) will vary according to temperature anotherr parameter). The information can be presented in the form of a table or a curve.
Mathematically speaking, parameters are those factors, generally variables, which together represent or al)proximate the nature. functioning, or behavior of a system. For example, parameters which completely define a straight line in a Cartesian system are distance along the x-axis. distance along the y-axis. and( the point at which the line crosses the y-axis.
Parameters are generally quantifiable and, when quantified, subject to mathematical formulation. However, the term may be loosely applied to factors which are not readily subject to mathematical operations. For example, parameters required to predict the outcomes of elections may include numbers of registered voters, party affiliations, p):st voter turn-outs, voter attitudes, expected impacts or major issues, 1n1d expected impacts of major interest groups. several of which are non-exclusive and non-quantifiable.
When parameters are quantifiable, or at least subject to analysis in qualitative form (like "popular" or "unpopular" candidates or importantt" or importantn" issues), but not reducihle to mathematical formulation (that is, not reducible to a statement of equality or nonequality), they may be analyzed in other ways. Such "Parametric" analyses include rank orderings, frequency distributions, graphic analyses, Cross Impact Matrix Analyses (q.v.), Algorithms (q.v.), Delphi Methods (q.v.), and heuristic modeling.
For a discussion of analysis conducted on the basis of unquantifiable parameters, but known mathematical relationships, see Parametric Analysis.
An analysis conducted with assumed instead of expected or actual values. Such an analysis attempts to answer the hypothetical question: '2 Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientiflc Revolutions (Chicago: The University of Chieo Press, 1962), p. x.
^ Itohort U. Ayres. Technological Foreeating and Long-Range Planning (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co, 1969), p. xill.
if the values of the parameters were as assumed, what would the resuits be? Parametric analyses are used, iii the absence of dlata from experiments or other sources, to examine a problem, to identify sensitive parameters, and to obtain reasonable approximations (on the high anid low side) of final results. In a parametric analysis, a range of values for each parameter is assumed which will bracket the expected values for that parameter, and a solution is obtained to the problem for each set of assumed parametric values.3
See also Sensitivity Analysis.
A procedure customarily employed by Basic Scientists. It entails the formal examination of papers, reports, or findings of one scientist by others working in the same field (and presumed of comparable competence in the field) before they are accepted for publication, announced in journals, or presented at scientific meetings. (However, on occasion the presentation at scientific meetings is regarded as a form of Peer Review.) The same arrangement is used by the National Science Foundation to evaluate proposed research projects before allocating funds to support such projects.
PERT (PR OGRA.A EVALUATION AND REviEW TECHNIQUE)
Various systems of management control and planning, amenable to computer application, for concentrating on critical elements in the desi* and construction of large structures or systems. The concept involves the identification of significant actions or accomplishments, the identification of actions that must precede these, the estimating of the time required to accomplish each, and the presentation of this information graphically (PERT chart) and as a computer print-out. The scheme strengthens management in numerous ways, such as by enabling flexible scheduling, identification of long lead-time items or tasks, and calling attention to problems needing correction. It speeds the process by showing the "critical path" to completion, and identifying the sequence of events that must take place so that management attention can be focused on them. A related technique, stressing this feature is CPM (critical path method). Another, stressing the economic aspects, is known as "PERT-Cost Method".
Photosynthesis is defined in the McGraw Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms as: synthesis of chemical compounds in light] t. especially the manuf acture of organic compounds (primarily carbohydrates) from carbon dioxide and a hydrogen source (such as waterr, with simultaneous liberation of oxygen, by chlorophyll -containing plant cells.
Plasmas, often called tihe fourth state of matter, are highly ionized gases which are formed at very high temperatures (over 5,0000 C.). They are composed of nearly equal numbers of positively charged
31' Heyniont et al., "Guide for Reviewers of Studies Containing Cost-Effloetlvpness Analysis."
nuclei and electronics. Plasmas are important because (1) most of the matter in the universe is in the plasma state, (2) they are the fundamental media of Magnetohydrodynamics (q.v.), and (3) they are part of many gas discharge and ultra-high temperature processes, and ('ct rolled nuclear fusion.
Th0 word "plasma" also refers to the liquid part of blood or lymph, as distinguished from the corpuscles. It can be separated from the rest of the blood by centrifugation.
POLICY (Collective Noun, also POLICIES)
A general course or method of operation adopted or proposed for the achievement or maintenance of a condition or (less frequently) the winning of an objective or for the minimization of error in the purposeful control of future events. The term is customarily employed with respect to social, public, administrative, and business institutions, and particularly to characterize the general principles guiding the operational decisions of their principal executives, to achieve coherence and consistency of management.
"Poliev means . intelligently directed action toward consciously determined goals-as distinct from aimless drift and blind faith." 5
A respondent suggests that an administrative hierarchy of procedure should be identified. It begins with Policy (as defined above), leading to Program ("an ordered set of interrelated actions"). Program. in turn. may be further subdivided into Projects or tasks, each contributing coherently to a Program in support of a Policy.
Cf. Policy Science(s) and Analysis. See also Normative. Generally. the analysis of policy calls for an investigation of cause and effect reltions of policy alternatives in order to identify at the earliest possible point in time the preferred broad course of action to be taken by an Lgency toward its mission.
Viewingy Policy as the complex of principles that govern action toward given ends, Policy Analysis includes such matters as the examination of the adjudication of laws, statements of leaders, agency documents, legislation and laws, and position papers from the private sector, for the purposes of evaluating goals, means, processes, objectives., .hievements. and intentions; it seeks from this analysis to formulate guidance for management of government programs. use of resources. and control of human behavior. The analysis of policy encompasses: conflicts among policies, internal consistencies, impacts on society and its environment, political and organizational aspects, problems of coordination, determining of relative priorities, timetables for action in programming, and evaluation and overview requirements.
Yehezkel Dror lhas defined Policy Analysis as "an approach and metLod(olog y for design and identification of preferable alternatives in respect to coml)lex policy issues. Policy analysis provides heuristic aid to better policymaking, without any presumption to provide optimization algorithms." 36
eenori ofor Fredor A Report to thc Preident hvby the Pre ident' Materials PorIoy Conrmusion (WashinTrton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, .Tune 1952), p. 17: (The PlVV Comm10ion.
0 Yihzke1 Dror Vent ure* in Poliy Science (New York: American Elsevier Publi1hlne C(o.. Ine., 1971). p. ".
POLICY SCIENCE (S)
(In this usage, Science(s) is the noun and Policy the adjective.) Both Science and Policy are separately defined (q.v.). In general, Policy Sciences can be derived from the coupling of these twvo definitions. However, the term is relatively new, and subject to considerable interpretation. It appears mainly to encompass (1) an understanding of the process by which are evolved broad principles useful in institutional problem-solving activities, and (2) the kinds of knowledge (both scientific disciplines and value systems) useful in the application of the process to particular conditions, circumstances, or problems. According to Lasswell,37 "The policy sciences may be conceived as knowledge of the policy process and of the relevance of knowledge in the process." Later on in this reference, he explains that the field is "contextual" and "problem-oriented." It appears also to be an attempt to introduce normative values into the decision process in a systematic way.38
The concept of Pollution involves changes affecting the quality of life or resources. Usually, the term implies a judgment of degradation.
The President's Science Advisory Committee in its report Restoring the Quality of Our Envirorment (1965),. stressed pollution as the undesirable consequences of man's activities: "Environmental pollution is the unfavorable alteration of our surroundings wholly or largely as a by-product of man's actions. through direct or indirect effects of changes in energy patterns, radiation levels, chemical and physical constitution and abundances of organisms."
The National Academy of Science's report V Waste Management and
Control (1966), also defined pollution as change having uncdecirable consequences: "Pollution is the undesirable change in the physical. chemical or biological characteristics of our air, land, and water that may or will harmfully affect human life or that of other desirable species. our industrial processes, living conditions, and cultural assets: or that may or w;ll waste or deteriorate our raw material resources."
The Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 (Public Law 92-500). however, defined pollution as any manr-in duced change and did not imply a judgment on the change: "The term 'pollution' means the man-made or man-indieed alteration of the natural chemical, physical, biological, and radiological integrity of water"-or land or air.
The PS4-C and Senate definitions refer to man-calusqed change, while the NAS definition includes any undesirable chance: the PSAC
,Harold D. Lasswell. "The Emerging Conception of the Policy Sciences." Policy Rcienec, vol. 1. No. I (Sprina 1970). p. 3.
Aeeordinz to E. S. Quade:
"During the past thirty years, almost a revolution has occurred in bhasc thinking ab) t the nnture of policy and how it is, or should be. made. The phllosophs,. Procedures. techbninues, and tools of the management and dcislon sciences-foperations research. systems analysis. simulation. 'war' gaming. zame theory. policy analy-is. nrogrrm bhudzt +n,. and linear Drorammine. to name a few-are accepted in hbincss. In industry. in defense, have started to penetrate the domestic pnlltIlal scene, and a oven reacbin- into foreirn affairs. that last hastion of the nure intuitionnists. Bt. tbnose areas where policy is made for the public, this revolution is having heavy ~nn and may soon run aannst a stop : the need from one point of view. to brlng the T-nowldl-e and procedures embedded in the 'soft' or behaviorial sceleness into systems env1inoeir and nprosna tbchnoloc-v and. from the other. to introduce the quantitative methods of systems aPnalvss and operations research into the normal anproachebs by social nnd political sciences. * Hence the policy sciences-an intrdiqvcinlinarv activity that attempts to blend the decision with the behavioral selences". "Why Policy Sciences." Thid., p. .
and NAS definitions refer to Iunfavorable" and "undesirable"
changes, while the Senate definition refers to all mani-made chang es. All three see pollution as being alterations, but they differ in how they evaluate those changes and in what aspects the changes are pollution. What is a pollutant and pollution depends to some extent on one's point of view: heat can be a water pollutant or a source of warmed irrigation water; solid wastes can be viewed as a disposal problem or as source of raw materials. Clearly, the concept of pollution is affected by the perceiver's view of the potential pollutant and what benefits and damages it may cause. These variations make the judgments on pollution variable over time, among societies.
Different disciplines view pollution from their own perspectives. To a biologist, pollution is likely to be changes affecting the lives of organisms. To a sociologist, pollution may be a behavioral issue. To an economist, pollution is a problem in the allocation of costs.
Because of these variations, the student of science policy will need to indicate, when he speaks of pollution, whether he is distinguishing man-made from natural pollution and the degree to which he is basing his definition on a value judgment.
Population research comprises studies of the nature, determinants, and consequences of population characteristics and dynamics and the development of basic data and methods for such population analyses. Physical, biological. psychological, cultural, social, economic, geographic, historical, and political factors may all be included in population studies. Operationally useful subdivisions of the field are:
a. Systematic des.crption of population characteristics and dynamics including fertility, mortality, and migration: of geographic distribution and socio-economic composition: and of various correlates of different demographic rates.
b,. Studies of the biological. psychological, social, and environmental deterninants of population characteristics and dynamics. and of the effects of efforts to influence demographic rates.
c. Studies of the consequences of population characteristics and dynamics, at both personal and societal levels, with attention to technical, industrial, economic, political, psychological, social, environmental, educational, health, and related factors.9
Population science encompasses demography which may be defined as I e statistical study of populations. Demography includes the study of population composition in terms of categories like births, deaths, mirations, age, sex, social status, ethnicity, income levels, marriage, divorce, illegitimacy, labor force, motivations, and survival rates.
Office of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President, The Federal Program in Population Research. pts. I and II. Report to the Ad Hoe Group on Population Reeareh (Washington. I).C.: .S. Government Printing Office. 1969), pp. 1101-1102.
PPBS (PLANNING-PROGRA3DIING-BUTID(;ETING SYSTEM)
PPBS, a management system, was first introduced in the Department of Defense in the early 1960s. Conceptually. PPBS integrates planning, programming, and budgeting into anl organization's decision-making process. Decisions on program s h-o(i;ed on carefully articulated plans are made in light of the required resources. To arrive at these decisions plans are needed to translate agency goals into specific objectives, and programs are framed for each alternative method of achieving these objectives. Then budgets must reflect the total cost of each alternative. Decision-makers remain cognizant 'of these phases while judging effectiveness of performance versus cost.
Implicit in PPBS is the use of analytical tools,. the first of which, operations research, grew out of problems arising during World War II. Operations research become a valuable tool in the war to solve tactical problems such as improving the effectiveness of anti-submarine and bombing operations. Systems engineering, cost-effectiveness analysis (or cost-benefit analysis), and the synthet' analytic approach known as "systems analysis" were tools and techniques which closely followed beliind the development of operations research.40
PPBS is a means, therefore, of analyzing both policy and the implementation of policy, a consideration of available alternatives and the resources that would be required by each. It is a means of resource allocations on a national scale, by overcoming the problems presented by the fact that requirements for programs ;ire relative. clear criteria are wanting, and information as to the costs andc benefits of alternatives is rarely available. Any individual program can plausibly CIdemand resources beyond reasonable expectation of capacity to provide.
Herein lies the need for a new approach. While this allocation process is essentially a political one, it can be illuminated by the continuous assembling and analyzing of statistical data on the nature and capability of the economy and the objectives and needs of the Nation.
Program budgeting [i.e.. PPBS] provides such an approach. It focuses on the decision-making process. particularly on the problems of data and analysis. Its first effort is simply the rational ordering of inputs and outputs, in which the initial emphasis is on the identitiable outputs-major objectives of Government processes. It then attempts to order the inputs-Government activities prodneed by manpower, material, real estate-so that comparisons among wide ranges of alternatives are feasible and meaningful.
[PPBS] starts with the structuring of the problem and ends with analysis of the data. Among the analytical tools. cost-benefit or .ostutility analysis that compares benefit. or utility (outputs) with resources or costs (inputs) is a most prominent one. Since the objective is to improve the decision making that occurs in real life. and iot in the philosopher's fancy, [PPBS] pays special attention to questions of organization and administration, and the politics and pressures of the workaday world.
4o Robert L. Chartrand and Dennis W. Brezina, "The Planning-Programming-BdLe,:ine System: An Annotated Bibliography," Multillth No. SP 114. Science Policy ne h Division. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress (Washington. D.C.- I'.S. Government Printing Office. 1966), p. 1.
"I David Novick. ed.. Program Budgeting * Programn Analysis and the Frderal Budget (Washington, D.C. : U.S. Government Printing Office. 1965), pp. xi-xti.
'I'll(I C(),It]"iblItiOll Of (-OI11l)ITl1eT1qiN-e. plannincy. progrr,nninincr.and J)1 I(I rkt 111 Z ('III I I i plo yet operatiOTially
n flie conceptually shn
(!I lon"t Task Of (I ) 1(lentifyin.lT Hie o objWt'l-es of the orcra
711 Z,IT IOTI devel Op n-,r :i n arT',11V Of feac;ihle al ternat i for ftchieving t I i (, ni S V St PT112 f 10 -, I I I V 0 11 OOS 111 -(-r f T'O III aninncr the ,11ternatii-eq: and I (Jeei -Ion, -ord' I to
-1 ) convert t 111'r the resultC., intO OJW T',1i ;.OTI,'l s. 11 4 2 Ar( I T1
w t I -) --V -le CWWOWS of PPTI, I I., follows:
obieetlvez;. of futill'C' (PV11'OPT1 011ts. 1111d of rolltingeneie!- and how to resl)nml to tliom. The pm-poq(- of planning (r I s t o e x p I o re t or na t i ves. t o StiTM1l'at0 q])Ollt trflrkoil and Tiianqg7ment state !Lrles. to identify
proNeii).,4. to forTnul:ito Hiooiivs. an(l. of course, to Yenonite data.
PP0f707M7??iP(1.-_k method orSVSt0Tn Of C1054-rihil I r Retivities according to ol)leotive or "witputs" ... aud of r(,lqtinEr th0se objectives to the (10 -,tq 01- "111PUtS" TIONIM to produce the outputs.
R ? 147 7,f;,,,q.-Tl,(, qrtivity tbrourrh whieli funds are requested. -,Ippropriated. ,ipporfione(l. ,ind ,wooiinted or
.Tqx- '_Nrendell -8N-rites:
P7(, p;pq is tli broad proce z-7of settingol)jeotiN-esand croals
for the. Depaitme it nf Defense and its component parts. tal-cin(y into account flie current and projected world environnient. These objectives and croals must, of course, be made in corc ort with nat-ional objectives. Generally, Hannin(y is concernod with what we want to do and can reasonably hope to
arl)leve. whereas P7'0.(7r(7M7??;7?.C1 is th- Much More Spe.cifiC procvsq of allocatinz resmirces amonz alternatives and ,ippraisillff the 1)em, ts from alternative prncrr,t,1s. Pro2ymmmincr sets the level of effort. and computes the consequent benefifs in rel.-Aive.
or absolute terms. R?1d(7ef;nq reckons the costs of protn-ams.
Thus biidgefing concentrates on resource inputs. and prozramming on military outpiits. The objective of PPBS is to
link prog-ramminff and budcreting like Siamese twins.
Later in bts deserip" on lipad(lq: The PPT.3 qvste7-n is I)ITMi zed
on the ,iFsii-nptio-n fliat when the Services compete for progranis in the ,I n T1 II, "I I cl pro m-ini (7 can be marlp o a7t(,PPaf;?,c,3
071 7 rO *OW_17 Prbu7r. strong dose o.fq?1sfcn-,z a7z(77yqjq." 44
Alice IRi0in writes:
Pospit(,,, its elaborate terniinolo zy, PPBS c;(,oniq to me simply
a to decision m.qkin,.r
Tl)(, toolz tind fl)v terminolo(rv m-iv rliange, hiit the apT)roq(-h to Sion T11 -O in(r iiTiplicit in PPBS has, larcrely"
T think. I-)Ppn ncceptecl in W.iF-Iiington. in 'rrln, ,iple if TIOt alwsyfz in practice. Tt is re(rarded as a desira'hle to make
dpcisioii-s--if the. time and information are a-vailable. Hardly
anyonee explicitly favors a return to muddling through.45
42st; ,,,ryjp11t r)f Murray L, Wol(l-,nhnum, Asslstnit Secretar y nf the Treisiiry of Ecoromir Pr)1*11 *. Jime 2, 1"70 1 k, T'.q,, C(inzro,,! JoInt 1700flnnfle Comm ttee. Chati,7bi,7 Y(Itiowrl i, rioritir., TIonrings 1wfnr- the Subrommittee on Eennoniv in Gr)vPrnrnent of thp 0 $ Jimp '1, 1970, T)t. 1. Nst Cong, Ist sess. (Wasbington, Ri .: V.S. Government Prirtin 1970), 1). f)P.
Witor n],4 iippliod In rorresnnndonee.
Allep, RvOrmatir Thinking for Sorial Action (Washington, D.C..* The Brookin :, Tn ztitiitfon, 1971 ), P. 1.
See MBO (Management by Objectives) for a comparison of the major features of PPBS and MBO.
Loosely, synonymous with Forecast (q.v.). Properly distinguished from it in that Prediction is a declaration (a non-probabilistic statement at an absolute confidence level) that some specified event will occur at a specified future point in time, or within some time period.
Any systematic methodology to put first things first. It is the systematic application of pertinent criteria to a set of Options (q.v.) in order to rank the options in a rational order of preference as claimants for a limiting resource. The limiting resource can be time, management attention, dollars, manpower. or other. The implication of a priority system is that not all programs can be undertaken at once, or with the same degree of completeness or expenditure of resources, and that therefore the resources must be reserved (allocated) in accordance with a set of rationally-determined preferences.
A distinction should be made between program priorities and normative priorities. In the former, the limiting resource is material and quantitative; in the latter it may be a finding based on social attitudes. Ultimately, of course. physical limitations will prevail, even if they are insufficiently appreciated by society. ThusCalling for a reallocation of national priorities is now a
standard theme in the rhetoric of both the establishment and the student activists. Nhat is often forgotten is that the term "priority" implies a choice. To have more of one thing, we must give up something else. If we could achieve all our objectives simultaneously, there would be no need to set priorities, no need to make difficult choices. Reallocating national priorities, therefore, is a double-edged concept-it not only involves a decision about what we want most, it also involves
a decision about what we want least.46
Much of the discussion in the area of Science Policy revolves around the issues of how much money should be provided for supporting research and development and how the total pile should be divided among the various disciplines and subject areas of science and technology. The search for improved criteria and an improved methodology to apply to this allocation problem is an important area of science policy research. (See A. Weinberg, Jfinerva. Vols. I (Winter 1963), and III (Autumn 1964).)
PROBLEMr N ASSESS ME NT
This term is used by the RANN (q.v.) Program of the National Science Foundation to signify an institutional operation that "defines and analyzes national issues in a total context to synthesize existing
Statement of Charles L. Schultze, senior fellow, the BrookIngs Institution, and Professor of Economics. University of Maryland, June 1, 1970, before the Subcommittee on Economy in Government, Joint Economic Committee, Changing National Priorities, pt. 1, p. 2.
1\ TIONVI(Id CrO q TI (I I ( 1011 t I f V -])('Citic opport III) it ie'-; fol research to bene4.
fi(,1211y enlialiten the dceIS1o11I1I.1kin,,--r process.,
Tn f,)rm 1"n)(111'0111011t Is HW 1)11V*1T)0- ()f S011lethilit-r. 11MVtvor. t hi- pr(wos.- 11,1's N'cwne enornloli,,-] y r'-mlified. "Is 11w Fcder.11 (im -cl-11111ont. NV1wT1 I ]W It(,111 to I)e 1g)II(rilt 1, a
1;ircre. coinplicated. aml costly strijeture thit doe. not exist. when it i ()T,1ior(,J. I'lle ('01111)1(,XltN- of the procuro" liont proce ;s is illu,, treated bY the, (1) Armed 4ervwes Procurement ((I.v.) of Hie,
Del),irtnwnt of Dof(,Tiso, ruiiumcr to SON-eral thick N-Oluilles. Ineorporatin" t1w 1"ulliv in -f, 1-11(l ions of the Cong-ress on policies. constraints. and operational procc-dures. There ,ire -ilsc) lar(re procedural maniials. .4pec-, if-Vill" 111]Tldr(-d' of require(i rcpofts. P1,000dilr0s. an(I functions. ls ziied I)V (I(TenCiPS 170SPOnsiNe for the prociireniew of lar(r(, sy4enis. These, (h"q1 With rol,-Ite(l 711titters ,is inspectioii. qiiality control, dociinientr-IiT1iT1ff procrnmis.
71m ,lit -I ;11"41)ilit v, 11171d the like.
.N ( re neral or stafT en(rineerincr function. especially in figr(re aerospace, an(] systeni-oriented corporations, intended to optimize the. EfToctiveno.sR (q.v.) of large systems. Tt encompasses such elements as reli-J)ility. i-fillie engineerincr. qualitv control, safety, niainta inability, an(] the like. (Cf. Procurement.)
A set of actions to implement an ft, ren(V S 111is-SiOn, 01' ft major part of the mission; also, a pattern of instruefions to a computer.
PROGRAM ( verb)
To formulate the plan of actions for an afrency. or the instructions to a computer.
A loose term which in(-Iii(les Cost ./Benefit Analysis. RiskI13011efit
-Analysis, Cost /E ffectiveile s. PERT, PPBS, Policy Analysis, Si-stems Analysis, and Operations Research (q.v.). See also Program and Analysis.
As USCJ intercli.incrNiblv -witli the term "social pro(rra.m eNalwation.'" denotes three types of social sciences research employed in Fed('ral
ies. Based on a scheme first identified by WhOleV, et al.,47 they, are:
of pi-o(,rrqni impact., to determine the "overall effecti\-oness of prorrr,,mis in meotinrr their o1+,ctIN-P!:; randl to examine the V:111(lity of the objectives clwzon to solve the proNems to which the
J(, ,opll R W11,17ov, of -II, rr(rcrra ri-(77uation rolirit.- .4naT.7/ inq the r.z7rrtR n!
(Washiii --ton, D C.: The Urban ln!41tute, 1970).
program. is addcressed. [This kind of evaluation provides] nomto foi- Ilse inl the policy formulation process. Ideally this evaluation takes the form of a comparison between a control group and an experimental grroup, with measurement before and after treatment in conf o rmi t with a rigorous research design. An example of this kind of evaluation ***is the evaluation of the impact of HEWV programs on migrant, and seasonable f a rnmorkers."
(2) Program strategy evaluation, to: "inform program managers of the relative effectiveness of different techniques or methods that can b~e used in producing desired results. [It] depends on definition and measurement of the appropriate environmental process, and output variables selected on the basis of suitable analytical models. The evaluation of the Follow-Through Program is an example *
(3) Project evaluation, to assess the "effectiveness of a specific mechanism that has been designed to accomplish program. objectives. [Tt.] is often conducted as part of the administration of the program and is frequently performed by the agencies or by the project managers* 15 43
PROOF OF CONCEPT
Proof of Concept is a NASA research method, now common to many research and development efforts, by which an advanced design or principle is tested for feasibility by means short of actual incorporation in a pre-production prototype or device.
T1he term characterizes that phase of development during which a concept is tested in a realistic operational environment. This phase usually follows laboratory tests during which the environment is sim.plifiecl, and precedes the prototype phase during which the configuration is optimized.
For example, a wing design conceived for large commercial transport may be proven by scaling it down and flight testing it on a small jet fighter aircraft. Although no production designs are produced, all data necessary for a production version are produced at substantial savings in cost and time.
Until recently, public interest could be defined as "something, in which the public, the community at large, has some pecuniary interest, or some interest 'by -which their legal rights or liabilities are affected. It did not m-rean anyvthingr so narro-w as mere curiosity, or as the interests of the particular localities, which may be affected by the matters in question."1 49
Since the early 1960s, however, the concept of the public interest has been given a broader, less well-defined meaning which includes
(1). the public's general interest in such things as consumerism and environmentalism and (2) a rationale for an expansion of the Government's influence in business and private affairs, particularly through the quasi-judicial powers of administrative agencies.
48 Laurence E. Lynn, Jr. "Notes from HEW" Evaluation (Fall 1972). p. 24. O~State v. Crockett, 86 Oklahoma 124, 206. pp. 816, SIT tis defined In Mlack's w Dictionary, revised 4th edition (St. Paul, 'Minn.: West Publishing Co., 1968).
"Public interest" law firms and interest groups, like Ralph Nader's organizations and John Gardner's Common Cause, are an outgrowth of this movement.
See also Citizen Participation.
PUBLIC INTEREST SCI-NCE
The rohle of the scientist as a government adviser has been described and studied in detail for the last few decades, but only in the past few years has literary attention begun to focus on the "social" or "public" advisory role of the scientist. Several scientists have expressed the conviction that, their information and advice on specific projects have been disregarded or even kept secret by public official, and that it is only by "going public" that scientists can contribute scientific information to corporate, agency, or congressional policy formulation. As one reviewer stated in his description of a book on public interest science:
The authors argue against continuation of the confidential
client relationship between adviser and the executive branch cf the federal government, contending that the obligation of the adviser is not to the agency which pays him but to the
The public interest science movement has spawned the growth of several groups organized to promote scientific critiques of public policy projects. These include the Scientists' Institute for Public Information and the Center for Science in the Public Interest. This movement has also led to some philosophical consideration of the "social responsibility of the scientist."
See also Citizen Participation.
See Technology, Public.
Because tihe Btu, an amount of heat required to raise the temperature of one pound of water one degree Fahrenheit, is a very small qua(intity of Energy (q.v.), large amounts are often expressed as exponentials of the Btu. Thus, 101' (quadrillion) Btu are frequently useful units and are called Quads. The U.S. consumption of energy in 1974 was about 73 Quads.
QUALITY OF LIFE
This term is perhaps indefinable. Nevertheless, it enjoys considerable currency in the modern world. Presidents Eisenhower, Johnson, and Nixon addressed themselves to the meaning of the term in formal mes ages to the Congress. Accordingly, some discussion of its possible range of meanings may be helpful, without in any way purporting to represent a formal definition.
a Day, Samuel II., Jr., "From Carson to Nader: The Growth of Publie Interest Science" : A Review of Advice and Dissent: Scientists in the Public Arena by Joel Primack and Frank von Hippel, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 31 (February 1975), pp. 47-48.
Both the National Science Foundation and the Environmental Protection Agency are supporting considerable research on Quality of Life indicators and on the related issue of Social Indicators (q.v.).
Current research efforts are aimed at developing typologies of objective (actual) and subjective (attitudinal) indicators of preferred social conditions. Some researchers are attempting to give absolute and relative value to these indicators so that they can weigh the relative importance of one condition to another, for use in policymaking purposes." Recent research findings demonstrate significant differences between objective indicators of Quality of Life (primarily currently collected governmental statistics) and subjective indicators of Quality of Life (people's perceptions and attitudes about favorable conditions of Quality of Life). According to many researchers, this finding demonstrates the limitations of using currently collected data to portray social conditions and social change, especially in urban areas.52
The term appears to be compounded of opposites: concern for the present versus concern for the future; normative values versus physical or material considerations; a dynamic balance of conflict and cooperation; hope and gratification; freedom and responsibility. The attitude of the individual appears to have great importance: it involves a conviction that life has meaning and purpose, that the efforts of the individual have efficacy, and also that the individual is not alone but belongs to a group with shared hopes, beliefs, and efforts.
Below the level of abstraction implied in the previous paragraph is a collection of considerations expressed by President Johnson in his message of January 4, 1965, the "Great Society" message. The items he proposed were education, health, urban improvement, beauty rather than pollution of the environment, uplifting of lagging economic regions, elimination of crime, expanded political participation, encouragement of art and literature, and prevention of waste. Implicit, of course, in this statement was the preservation of peace abroad. Indeed, the general thrust of the concept of Quality of Life seems to imply aspects of personal and community existence which are i, addition to the "primal" (C.P. Snow) values of food, clothing, shelter, and security.
A review of U.S. national goals over the years since the founding of the Republic suggests that there is a tendency for the people of this country to focus on some one general goal-usually the correction of a deficiency or blunting of a perceived threat. Examples are: w-in a war, end a depression, or reduce environmental pollution.
It is evident that no list of national objectives or qualities 7-od be equally pertinent for all individuals or groups of fociety. Moreover, the more detailed the itemization of desired qualities, the less the agreement as to their priorities. Governmental agencies are continuing
51 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Offce of Research and Monitoring, The QuaUity of Life Concept: A Potential New Tool for Decision-Makers (Washington : U.S. Government Printing Office, 1973). 397 p.
Dalkey, Norman C., et al., Studies in the Quality of Life: Delphi and Decislon-Makting (Lexington : Lexington Books, 1972). 161 p.
Liu. Ben-Chleh. "Quality of Life Indicators: A Preliminary Investigation," Social ndicators Research, vol. 1, no. 2 (September 1974), pp. 187-208. Andrews. Frank M. and Stephen B. Withey. "Developing Measures of Perceived Life Quality: Results from Several National Surveys," Social Indicators Research, vol. 1, no. 1 (May 1974), pp. 1-26.
2 Scninelder. Mark. "The Quality of Life In Large American Cities: Objective and Subjective Social Indicators," Social Indicators Research, vol. 1, no. 4 (March 1975), pp. 495-510.
to support research on the topic but, as of now, the quest for a definition of Quality of Life appears to resolve into a determination by each individual for himself. In this context the phrase "pursuit of happiness" in the Declaration of Independence is pertinent. There may be some degree of consensus that there is such a thing as "Quality of Life" but no agreement as to how it is to be defined.3
QUICK FIX (ALso, TECHNOLOGICAL QUICK FIx)
A prompt engineering action to correct a defect in a system, employing "off-the-shelf" hardware or designs already available, or an already-est.ablished alternative process not requiring validation.
RANN (RESEARCH APPLIrD TO NATIONAL NEEDS)
A program of the National Science Foundation "to bring important new resources to the national effort to improve the quality of life." (q.v.) The program consists of support for a variety of problemoriented research projects, including energy resource, conversion, and system activities; environmental activities like weather modification; prod(luctivity activities including public technology and economic productivity; and exploratory research and problem assessment activities including teclmology assessment. Criteria of acceptable projects are: im portanwe (potential or actual significance and urgency to the nation), payoff (high domestic economic and social benefits), leverage (role of science and technology is significant), readivess (timely), capability (organizational resources available), Need for Federal Action (market incentive inoperative), and Unique Position of N SF.1
RDT&E (RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, TESTING, AND ENGINEER NG)
An abbreviation used primarily in the management of the development of military hardware; it covers the spectrum of basic research, applied research, and development--including the design and development of prototypes. It extends from initial determination of a strategic requirement for a system with defined performance capabilities to the operational deployment of the system. A respondent supplies five definitions for terms that he suggests constitute the component elements of RDT&E, as follows:
Research: Defense research is scientific study and experimentation directed toward increasing knowledge and understanding in ** fields ** related to long-term national security needs. It provides fundamental knowledge for the solution of identified military problems. It also provides part of the base for subsequent exploratory and advanced developments in Defense-related technologies and of new or improved
military functional capabilities * *.
Exploratory Development: Includes all effort directed toward the solution of specific military problems, short of major development projects, with a view to developing and
S'e Iluddle, "The Evolution and Dynamics of National Goals In the United States," N Nntionn Soence Foundatlon, Ju Ttificration of Estimates of Appropriations, flecal year 1C72 (Wahington. D .: U.S. Government Printing Offlce, 1971), pp. D 17 to D-19.
evaluating the technical feasibility of proposed solutions and determining their parameters. This type of effort may vary from fairly fundamental applied research to quite sophisticated breadboard hardware, study and programming,
and planning efforts.
Adwnced Development: Includes all projects that have
moved into the development of hardware for experimental test [to provide] proof of suitability of equipment, rather
than the development of hardware for service use.
E'Itg~ineering Developen t: Includes development programs in which the item is being engineered for service use but has not vet been approved for procurement or operation [but which] are initiated only in response to an approved
Operational System Development: Includes R&D efforts
directed toward the development, engineering, and testing of systems, support programs, vehicles, and weapons that have
been approved for production and service employment.
In its most narrow sense, recycling of materials means the rescue of materials from disposal and their subsequent reuse in essentially the same form. Thus, the recycling of paper means the collection of wastepaper and the reprocessing of tlhe recovered pulp into new paper; the recycling of glass bottles means the collection of used bottles and their reprocessing into new bottles. In practice, however, this narrow sense of the definition has been enlarged to include several additional meanings. One such meaning is reuse: stationery, for example. may be reused for additional writing, as in using the reverse side for scratch paper. or may be used for another purpose unrelated to writing, as when incorporated into building materials like insulation and hardboard. Another meaning concerns conversion of a waste material from its existing form into another form which is then useful, as in converting wastepaper to protein or compost. Still another meaning concerns the use of a material so as to consume its substance entirely. as in burning wastepaper for fuel. Strictly speaking, reuse, conversion. and consumption do not represent recycling, but all have popularly come to be included within the term. Thus. in the broadest sense, recycling is the creative management of a waste material so as to obtain the maximum additional value from it. in contrast with disposing of the material as solid waste at additional cost.
Cf. Mater ials Management.
Loosely. any gathering of information. More precisely, the gathering, ordering. and analysis of information on a systematic basis in aecordance with predetermined criteria. Scientific Research is Research conducted in accordance with the scientific method. Research is conceried with the acquisition of knowledge while development is concerned with the systematic use of scientific knowledge directed toward the production of useful materials, devices, systems, or methods, including the design and improvement of prototypes and processes.
3:' (3 _--- 5
Acconlino- to t1w 'Nit imml "'clence 14 oil, *Res,".ircll i N
TvIII-Ifif-. intc.S* vo Alldy d1I'(.(.tc(t towal.(l fullerscientific, 11-1w)wlcolg" Of th(' 111)jeot' Qt-"Idied."
I Ti III --\:I I ure ("Forty-IRVV Vftr'tlicc; of (an(l Delopment)", ()("t. l'), 19 -t)), LoTA Eotlic(1111(l cit( S "the IIIIIIII-wr of
I U(I k,:t i'k': I"(1 (11"W :111(l th e
01, -:oil](, people." 111 11,
(' ", (':111 :('d n II'V- I-;I I (' I I I I I,-"
Ile r(,i!i0\-(l 11if, Thon he pre.- eiits
,I t 1, 1 011 r Nv I A I s i I Fc I 1 TV YC S (I a I v I I "13 t o
tNN-,) to "Ifid CN-e to
terlil': he nt al
.4 t 11, 1 shoul(I he
(i,N-(ItA iiito two cateroi-i,-z, of "pure"' ni-id T-c-: earch. IT*
aiml ()f :ii)pliod i-clscarcli is in this Glo ;ary uii(lei- ReS(1:11'('11. A'ppllc f.
IZ((11-whild 1,11,11tiftcS 'five s foi. "Pure reset"T.("ll" as follows:
"l-'ic I'l IIII ,'I a I It ,I I ],(,
as tj (' prefei.-nA forin. Tli.s he definc i as (Iono
to 1TIC1,0.11SC knowledcre, without. ftny practical applicntioii in
Rothschild inelm-les as terms f'-jr clefinitior 1*0<0.11'ch. cm-iosity-oriente(I res( :irch, speeiiInfix-e research, "'l)(I :.,,neral iv-vareh (curchare -r ). The firs!. two terms 'Ire, he' 'savl.: SAIMMN_1110111.z 1111d too bi'(),J(1 in scop to I)e useful. The scooml I v,-o "'In, )arfial svnom-ms and Ji,-n-e a speciallze(l iiistitut7onal sigmificaiic( NA-hich lie jufl, ),,s not verv uFeful. (They have. to do with "i-esearch 'N"Juch mny be po".e ()r "Ipplied and -which is not directly conoc,;-ned with an a pp] i e J T'0-41 1 T'( "I I I, I 0 (rT0mme, thoucyli. done, by the sa;.io rescai-ch (TrOUP, 0111 'I! "I ,,It imi. oi- Libomtory.")
Q N-t(, matic application of ii-Iformation. svst(,i!i:itic,01j7 acquire(I and x it i(k:i I c(l. In :):iri icul(ar, ApplieA Resparch is tl,(, ical n application
01 .1-:11ch oi- im(lerstan(Iii-ig 1or flie purpo,' o r' we-t 111cr 2 1'ec01rilil'I'd ileed to (1cvelop a capability, euliployimur tl,,(, metho(k -1:14 (lata of (q.v.). It is (Iisti7i'!.mished froin Developmeiit, (q.v.) in that
it, does, not extend W the dc, i(,n or construction of woi-kincr propel% ses 011 lltardlvar* ,
11sc(I I)N- flin F omidat;on, thn term mcam :
pra(-tical (1pplic"'t'-1011 Of k1lowled(re-if "rese8tmh projects" wbich represent im-estirra,tiol-is (Iilv( I (lit 0 (liscovery of Tim !zzci(-1t.4'-o-. 1 uwvfi'(t re .1111
III hav :p-k-ifir coll'11110110i 1,11 01) VN'Wil r"'-"p"ct' to
Or t1lis (1c,Ir"ition. applie(I n'C: I i 'I I I 1 1 !-V d I 'It 1 1"0111 1 i C (' 'l T-Ch ch 10 Ily i:j t 1-1119 !Ip pi
4" 1' L portITI(r COM1
1"C"" "I IITfi!1 c- )11(--t;on Of oil the. Ap'Xi'(17 Re'77pn0p
1"(1poll to the Co.mlillf" (l oil Ciellcc' and N"Itimml olelicv Folmla' Ion, National Pattern of R. r D. Rc. ourccs_, 195- -71P NSP 70 -1G (19TI), pi). 21-25.
Astronautics, U.S. House of Representatives, by the National Ac:adleminy of Sciences, June 1967.
In his article ((Cf. Research) on "Fort.-five Yarieties of sa rh (and Developmen.t)," Lord Rothschild identifies ,33 different terms for Applied Research. Ie presents them in an introductory list, and then proceeds to evaluate them out of consideration.5G6 Those that remain, all subsufmed lnder "A"pplie( R'eah" re lined
Strategic 8c'1rch. RZesearch undertaken to genr: t -Spef ef ) V w dI programs.
Product Researcht. A subdiv>ion of appliield research wos, ,J jeetive is a new or improved product.
Process Re.,earch. A subd,,ivision of applied research whese objetive is a row ov improved process.
Operatio ,wl d lscS b'reh. The app A;tion of objective and aittiv criteria to deci sonmak7ng p)revioisly tackled by e:perience, iintuI..... to .....;n m l I_ :,A 1) 1
tion, or prejudice. Called operations research in the U.S.. A ubdivisi on of Applied Research.
The systematic acquisition and validation of ,structured i ...m. on or knowledge about the universe. empoyin; for the purpose n*th
ods and assumptions of Science (q.v.) In particular Bi,- ,esar;h is directed toward a fuller knowledge or understanding o~f the subject under study. rather than toward the practical application of the knowledge or understanding. One view of this activity svrses hat its motivation is curiosity about nature, leading the practitionr "to proceed along sophisticated disciplinary lines as delineated lby peer judgment as to the frontier problem areas." Moreover, "open and free dissemination of the results of such inquiries is an mnt rnaton:l (radition of the [basic] scientific community."
According to the National Science Foundation, "the definition of basic research stresses that it is directed toward increases of knowledge in science with * the primary aim of the investigator a.
fuller knowledge or understanding of the subject under study, rather than a practical application thereof." NSF also notes that some research conducted by private industry may represent "original invest igations for the advancement of scientific knowledge ** which do not have specific commercial objectives, although they may be in fi(eldI: of present or potential interest to the reporting company." This concept appears to relate to the discussion in the Glossary under "Research, Fundamental."
For a useful collection of essays bearing on Basi, Science. see :
Research and National Goals. Report to the Committee on Science and Astronautics, U.S. House of Representatives, by the National Academy of Sciences (March 1965).
5 His list includes: absolutely applied research, commissioned research. missionoriented research, objective-oriented research and development, orientated [U.S. oriented research, product-oriented reseach, tactical science, taget research, anplied ( project) research, applied (operational) [U.S. operations] research, short-term "troubleshootin e" research, exploratory research, product research, process research, method of operation research, operational [U.S. opeations1 research, strategic research, objective basic research, basic strategic research, target basic research, targeted basic research, basic applied research, applied basic research, strategic applied research, oriented-strategic research, and underlying research.
r i I I X I (rlt I(M 111,1 V I w 4, 11( )11 -(r, it ns III 'I I it crillediate st I -(YC 1wt wc( Il ))11SW 1111d 11j)Idle(I re, *;earch. Adniiiiistratl\-ely, ex1florat M*V I'( defined as --t !w calk- (d, lv -ciivll NI 1111"Is 110t
d0filh'd M' 1.111 1(T toOd 10 111CF1t, flill
Tyj)Wi I Iy it invol v(-s Inqu I rics-11 IVywilt I,,,- III lilt H] -111to
SlIC11 11,11111,:) 1 plwnom( na a elist Wit y (4 (-(itnlysts, iniclear
par" li-le 111 r'wl M il, or tile delm i'll lon I, '!I(hllllellkil re- (,arch 1.13 llot Ilk-Le -() called "pilre'. ()f for its
I I _fIlljy
MVII Filli(hillonill rese'livjl N-'Jj ]lope
Btitthe spe(-Ificiiattil"(1 Of It"eventlin] appliCat loll 1- Ilot klloN -li tat the tilne I 1w re
(see Applic(l) excc.pt by n4erelice to
the lilsli, litioll whiel I Cond I let's it.
Broa(U.N-1 scientific research directe(I twx ird ,ill ()1)je( ti\-(, or mission, ill\-o1\-]II(r practitioners of a nuin1wr of relex-ai-il sci( nflfic disciplines. Various (-haract( risties that distill (rIj Jjlter(j*Sk-ipjjI,.,lj- Research
from ti-aditional single-discipline resoareli include : multiplielty of distn
cipfines, use of tools or findings of several disciplines, mission orientatn
tion, and organizational setfiiicr.511 These may be dis(-i-a;s(,(J as follows:
a. Dix,- *p7;iiary in 'x: Donald J. Culinin(Ai, ni definess interIT.SeZlrdi as researell. done jointly by social sciellti.-)ts with other scientists: "research wbich is con(lincte(l hy a
mixture of investigators gathered both froni the
of the physical and social sciences." Another definition is: when ilivesti(nition incorporates the finding tool, an(l to(-hniques of several disciplines, and parti(-tilarly wilen It nines
conceptual p.atterlis and analyses pert"1111111 -(r to
branches of knowled(-Ye."' The distinction betweell
cipline an(l interdisciplinary research is J()-zt when research using the techniques of several discipl*-.W:_ becoilles I1l!Z:,tlt1las a -.62
new SCientifie Speei, JitN I)M(.110111
istry, astrophysics, urban affairs, or scioiw(I policy. 111(licators of institutionalization of interdisciplinary research as
,7 j, Tj:j I (,p l,"()jindation, "Exploratory Research and Problem A,;,zessnient (FRPA). mirneo :raph, 1). 3,
Jmnf, ; 1'ritin Quin irind Robert M. Cavannurrh, "Fundmental lZesearch Can
Planned.- Harrard BuRbicsx Rrricr (Jn7mary Yebruary 19CAi, Ti. 11.1
(in C, i ) n z r I I z '0 T I 11111 t t V e o 11 Z c i o n (-(, a n (I Ast ronn lit ic T n t v r
d Ne i 10 i rii i- y Rosparch -An Explorntioii of Public Pollcy 1!- sueq." Qrlonre Polic v Research Pivi-Aoil. T.P Tislntive RoferpTIOV SOT-ViOP, Nbrarv of Comuess, 91st Cmig., 2d sess. (WashIngton. D C. : V.S. Governin(,rit Printinf-, Offive, 1 70), 106 p.
"I'Dr. D- T. Cunningham, F(Wri-O Sipport a7id Stimulation of Interdisriplinary Rescarrh
(0Xrd. Olito Miami Vnivoritv, Octobor 1969). T). 3'
Pi -rre di Me, "'Flip Coileopt (if Prohl(,m-l oeused Researeh.11 International Social Scirtirt, JouriiO, vid. XX. 'No. 2 1 196 0. pp. 204-07.
Warren 0. lfn strain, The Scirnfi.fic ('oniniuiiity (New York, Bnslc Book-, Trir., 1967), p. 14
a new scientific speciality include its publication of specialized journals, and the formation of scientific societies and teaching
b. Applied or pro blem-orien ted: Interdisciplinary reseIarch
is generally applied and problem oriented--designed to provide a solution or alternative solutions to important and conmplex problems at the interface of society and technology.
c. Organ ization setting: A variety of organizational form s
characterize the conduct of interdisciplinary research. These differ from the units in which single discipline research is generally conducted. Typical of these organizations unique to the conduct of interdisciplinary research are: a university.
interdisciplinary research problem institute:; a non-profit non-academic research institute, frequently located close to both universities and industrial centers; Federal laboratory social scientists teaching or working in professional schools, such as law, medicine, engineering, etc.: and a university interdisciplinary department or an ad Ihoc public policy advisory group established to assess' research needs or particular
social problems cutting across disciplinary lines.
An attempt is sometimes made to reserve the use of the term
"Interdisciplinary" to combinations of the physical sciences (E.g. "Interdisciplinary Laboratories" sponsored by the National Science Foundation). According to this view, the definition given above would apply to the term Multidisciplinary Research.
Research management includes the dynamic process of planning, organizing. leading, performing, administering, coordinating, and evaluating (1) scientific study: (2) experimentation: and. (3) for organizations in applied research. development, and production, the translation of that basic knowledge into new products. processes, and techniques.
"Different applications of the management process of planning, organizing, leading, doing, administering, coordinating and evaluating exist within many companies. according to the "basicness" or "purity" of the research and development. If the research is basic or '"pure." the management process is applied to the basic research least. with more freedom, relief from routine, less punching of time clocks, more con-dence in his professional ailit. more participation in matters in which he is concerned, more choice of projects or tasks by him-and, in general, more democratic management and administration. The manager was found to apply fewer or less drastic controls bet cfaue of the uncertainty involved, the relative lack of knowing wd3ere basic research is going (or how to do it), the greater degree of ereat ivity involved, and the administrator's inability to tell the scientist what to do.
"The objective of basic research is more vague. The methods are less
clearly defined, so that control cannot be as rigorously established. As research becomes applied to development and production, the objective can often be defined more clearly. In applied research, the goals of the
11OW Sk, -il t 111ore to Cie specific c( T!iTiiercilll
f d joc I I N\ 11 1 1,(, 1 wt .,L I I t oi- T he rylvater IIIe
fii* I W )d 11i't t )I* 1 )1'( ll'It CM I 1 )111 the 1110i'v ]'I !:t nn _,r( I, Icilt 1111(l a(II)i M 1 t rat ioll
I !I i'l ',,;I _(roll w ", f ev"r 1)1 ,)re 01)*c-1 ive III
k ll()\%- lei, I- ]III
I)n it i II I I jw a(IIIIIIIi.-tered aild
I "TV thlil'111(11 v 111,171 1 :I. IC (W (11pplied A lld fl ills. :IS
0i, Jovei '11-1wilt 111to I)I-ir)(hict Ion, (lefillite pi-oducts nre
FO I'Ll, 1.T I (I"'flolte ni"'1111411tI x1d cc.-trol ctm be inaiiacred."
0 1,! - N
v 1 71 N, Ap")I'A'd Pe-o(Irc!". Amille(l) altholl' _rh
1w v I- e 1, 1 1 1 1):! S, c "T IC! I I I N t J ec-; IVIt I ]I (,! 11'. p al
1'! 1" 't I'l 10 1 v-1t I lel 1 1. to piv v*(le 'I1foI.;lI,-1tioji or
IMII (.d to 0 1 't VSkIIII OT' tO SUP1)()11 a proo-aili. Ill wher wor(IL.s, 11_Mit- sinn-Orieiited" s-I'mifies t1lat.
I is directe(I ;)Ild collsti IC(I by the goals and rules of sonie
to olitil I'(1-Twideiit, the; teiiii '*fast-frrin- if research" is ill Europe as ;Yiionplloiis Nvith Or;eilted Re$011114,111. ;I11j)1yiii(y tliat the results of the research should be rapidlN .1pp, t_ I
1:( to illlprovv the efficiei)cy of civil or military :ysten s.
L(IOSely. a tel-Iii spion-vinous with Basic _Rp searcli or Fundamental Re"varch (sole RZesearch, Basic and Research, "r, iindamental). There is a. tcldeiicy to associate tli(,,- terin Pure Research Nvith the exclusive iiitent, to expand knowledge and understanding of the physical
llvserve, z; are that portion of identified material resources from vvhich a iisable mhienfl and energ commodity can be eronomicall% ,md le rall v extr.-icted at the time of (leterinin-ttion. The term "ore, Is
also 11 -,dI for ro; erv(- of soine minerals. See Resource(s) for the relatimi-Iiip of to other currently or potentially available
]w l f, I*;:JS.
III geiiend, resouivos ,ill Tilealls, or Potelit i,,Il Illealls tow"Ird
ell(k w. p), elitini "I'llev c!III Illellide I)II ysic"I'l 111plits, p"'ople (and
I I I I,, i I i oil,
t1.e;r Ievel.< of t1-:1111illor), iiifo t 14, t ti
911 i -<(A ') n (I cr(,dit, ete.
114esot; I -ce I I w v I I,,, I: I I I :I I h1l o or jwn (-i hl e (v.rr. beautiful sceilery) ,Iii(l 11 I'll N, 1w ( I t I loll. N-,l I I I ed () I. t rk-n t (,(I f rev Crood s (v. (r. air).
V I for 111*11 ,T-!l Pe :ow.c(' .z II(INe receialy T)eeii adopted
11r:vr4:p7rR nid Pia(,firr (Wizh1mzfon, 1.),C.: r_, and I.-) Ift,
by the Bureau of Aines and the Geolorrieal Survey of the 1U.S. Depatmn ofteItrof The present definitions are based upon two criteria :th-e e~etof geoIoiC kii0w1,e_,c&C :boit the i'C?01ie, anad the ('CO-noHulC fc8asiblliy of its recovery. TIhose (I'eflmtj--ouis inluldeI
IC~'5170cc a, cc"/ I II ,lenlt rtltion~ 01 naturtm.-ON oc-1'i C solf(~(lH, 01oi o
cgllseoUS MaCItci-als in 01' o1 the car.'tli's crust -M 1ihfr l)a c-0_,i eXt raction of a commodity is currc~ntly or potcn~iallvy Tcasihic, Resources taiue of two types-identifled rCsoiUrces a7 j Y1U(bor(d
1. flmf P_ ~~i rcsp~elefic bie0Is of irelbcinr
materLial1 wlic. location, qiiality, and (jiantity are known f rom ge~ologic ev7ide.-r ce Su1pporte(I by ensrineering measurcmen-ts Nkith rcs-pect to tihe de,,rnonstr1_atfedIcteo Identifiedl resources are of two typEs-reseri'es and icicub fled iecroma
La. irc.serve8: thlat portion of thle identificci resource.
Trom hich a iustable mineral and '_,nero- commr~odity can
be ee-onomicallv and legally extracted nt the timn, of deter.Minatlen.1 ne term,'"or&' is also rsed fer reserves of
L. ident iled Subeonm~ RC esOW2/-ee :COITC kown deposits
not now ineabl e economic ally.
2Urndscovcred Resources: unspecified bodies of mineralbearinog material surmised to exist on the basis of broad geoloo~ic knowledge and theory. Undiscovered resources are of two tYpes-1iqpoth etical resources and spc?:iatoe resources.
2.a. Hypothetical Resources: undiscovered materials
thlat may reasonably be expected to exist in a known mmiing di strict under known greologic, conditions. Exploration that, confirms their existence and reveals qutantity and quality will permit their reclassification as a reserve
or identified so-beconomic resource.
2.b. Speculative Resources: undiscovered materials
that may occur either in known types of deposits in a favorable geologic setting where no discoveries have been made, or in as yet unknown types of deposits that remain to be recognized. Exploration that confirms their existence and reveals quantity and quality will permit their reel assification as reserves or identified subeconomic resources.
concept t siniig thNrcvey for additional use, of resources already utilized at'least once. The term Resource (q.v.) is generally taken to include all kinds of material resources as well as energy resources which, if not recovered, would go to waste. Included, fo'r example. -;s the conversion of municipal solid waste to useful purposes, as well as the thermal use of heated -waste -water effluent from nuclear power plants for the heatingr of offices and homes. Impetus wnns driven to the concept by passage of the Resource Recovery Act of 1970O (Public Law 91-512) which aimed at,+ shifting national solid waste manage64 U.S,. Department of the Interior. Mineral Res~ource PersperfjreRq 197 5, Genowzenl Survey Pro'fessional Paper 940 (Washington. D.C. :U.S. Government Prin:.'Ing O0:flep, 1975), 24 p. Z
nellt 'ct ivities from disposal to recovery and reuse. Closely related is to 10 onept of source ( 1onservat ( q.v.) defined s thle judicious I c of reou res ao to IOl I t I waste and I)revenIt their pIiremature deple Iion. Included within the concept is the more restricted concept of l le l ing (q.v.). See also Materials Management.
RSH)UIRCES, ALLOCATIN OF (A LSO FEDERAL SurP1ZT OF SCIENCE)
A resl)ond(ent contributes the following comment on this term:
This term is now becoming quite well established and an even
more specialized term, "technological risk analysis is used by the Department of )efense. The emphasis on risk analysis is due largely to the problem of overruns which have plagued large systems such as the C-5A and the F-111. The most important aspects in any commercial risk analysis involves two uncertainties: (a) market, and (b) cost of development and production. This kind of analysis is basically an effort or attempt to take specific account of these uncertainties rather than use "best estimates." In most cases, these uncertainties are in the form of subjective probability distributions. The outputs of such studies are probability distributions of quantities such as discounted cash flow return on investment, net present value, and net income. Thus, risk analysis provides the executive with answers to questions such as the following: What is the chance of loss on a project and what is the
likelihood of achieving a 15%7 return on investment?
A related concept is "engineering risk," which is the degree of probability that a given design of a system, incorporating ( number of compinonents, will be effective. The design problem is to find the optimum trade-off between the use of proved components (thus inviting thle risk of early obsolescence) and the use of wholly new and unproved components (thus inviting the risk of unreliability).
RISK/BENEFITrr ANALisS (ALSO, BENEFIT/RISK ANALYSIS)
That portion of Cost/Benefit Analysis which pertains to the social costs of public health impacts of technology-such as deaths, dis:l)ilitv, and discomfort. These elements of public risk are usually presente(d in mortality and morbidity statistics, but are most conveiiently used in Risk, 'Benefit Analysis in the monetary terms of equ ivalcnt social costs.
A respondent notes: There has not always been an adequately comprehensive vantage point from which to consider the issues: very often, i ie riskl:s are borne from a separate group from those for whom the l)elefits mty accrue (i.e., the costs may be "external" to the undertaking). Furthermore, the risks are not always apparent "a priori."
This is ann activity of "administrative man" who looks for a course of action that is adequate, reasonably satisfactory, or "good enough." It mnay be contra ste(1 with "mniaximize. an activity of "economic man"
who selects the best alternative from among those available. Examples of satisficing criteria familiar to 'businessmen are "share of the market," "adequate profit," and "fair price." A significant aspect of satisficing behavior is that administrative man, because hlie satisfices rather than maximizes, can make his choices without first examining all possible behavioral alternatives and without ascertaining that these are in fact all the alternatives.65
The order or sequence of events, scenes, or situations. A methodology has been developed for analyzing alternative futures as "scenarios, by which a set of interacting forces (social, economic, political, technological, etc.) is assumed, characterized, and worked out in narrative form to a logical outcome. The purpose of the technique is to give a realistic, tangible illustration of the probable consequences of different policy options or goals. The term Scenario originated with the motion picture industry, to signify the story outline combined with descriptions of the kinds of pictures needed to help tell the story.
This is a term for a broad area of human activity based on the unifying assumption of the universal relationship of effects to causes. It is aimed at discovering, characterizing, organizing, and explaining facts and relationships according to principles of systematic and logical thought. Characteristic of science is the method of developing and testing of hypotheses through empirical observation (inductive-deductive reasoning), the validation of findings through replication, the construction of orderly taxonomies of related information, and reliance on quantitative measurements employing accepted standards. Within the taxonomies of each scientific discipline, the scientific effort seeks to achieve progressively finer grain of detailed understanding: externally, each discipline of science seeks to establish relationships among classes of phenomena."
The term Science is loosely applied to encompass not only the activity itself but also the community of practitioners of science (Scientists), who are also governed by the rules and constraints (canons) of science. The term also embraces the products of science, in the form of discovered factual information, laws, concepts, inventions, and even novel artifacts relying on scientific discoveries for their inception.
As science encompasses both basic and applied activities, the practitioners of both categories of science are called Scientists. This combination of meanings should present no difficulty, however, as the shades of distinction between them in practice tend to be very fuzzy. On occasion. it is said. the workers in the same laboratory use the same equipment to perform the same operations at different times for differ5 From Herbert A. Simon, Administrative Behavior (New York: The Free Press, 1957), pp. xxiv and xxv.
Louise B. Young and William J. Trainor. eds., "Science and Public Policy." prepared by American Foundation for Continuing Education at Syracuse University (Dobbs Ferry, N.Y.: Oceana Publications, Inc., 1971). pp. 3-48.
*7 Authorities to be consulted on various aspects of the subject would include C. P. Snow, The Two Cultures, and a Second Look (New York : Cambridge University Press. 1964). 100 p.. describing the interface between the scientific community and the nonscientific community : Robert Merton in Bernard Barber and Walter Hirsch. els.. The Sociology of Science (New York: The Free Press of Glencoe, 1962), an investigation into the scientific sub-culture.
ellt piirposes, one of which is "basic research" aiid the other "applie(l
I IV I I.
11V I.-' S0111(l irlf,.q de-cl-ilw(I a-, a "I-allle-f act ivit I. to sl1wrest,
i I 10 M I I ',I ti v (, I N, Ilelitnd III P1111POSO "ITI(I t1int, the I-c-'llit-s of sel1) t I f 1 di SC V I'Y cm he fol, (rood or 1),I(l pIiT-p0*_:OQ1. I lowm-el., the
:-(-w1we nn, themselvesnoi-matiN-e
ill t he eflica(w of rationality, ivs
pect. for pi-ecise and careful procedure, mid in 4istence oil t I I e f re e. i nt e.relia iige of Infommatloii.cjs
ns i-eally is -,zc'eiice." the chai-,,w!ei-iz;it*oii or nature thl-)II "'rh disciplilled study, ai e not synoiiN-mous. The (11.:tinction, is impol-1,111t ill ,,,(-Iclice, Polic.N (q.v.) zlrlfllysi,< partiellIal-IN- ill TV'rIli'd to the allne.itlon of resources to conduct scientific mzearch. Accoi-dinrr to, Dr. CI I a Hes S. Sheldon:
Seicli-, (,( notcs "to know." TIN- Imman hn.c; lweii
01, 2,1111iZ(A ilito "11V intcj.l ,-Iatc(l ,Ots of
'pted It w.-, 1(- ,ind h'Vp(,,i slices. Cln -,- ficit ]oil of 11LTiowlell 0. 0 into is not '(11(, 11"It 111'.0 works; it 1- 11m11's 11IN-011tioll,
to Ilelp Ilim ILlIdel'-,",I)d moll(l the
ll lfllre. 110co.frilit-loll, of the ill-II)VI-f-ctioa of Inall's 1*11VC111 "m of ille sei111 IC C T)I 1,
disciPli"ICS 11;1' 10(1 to Pndif e nat ion aniong the di,.- I, i tind
to con I k ", I I
junctions arnow_- (lisciplim-4. to provi(le Tiliflic', -rm of inI I ";I t *,I( )II pro(Iliced hY "; wk o id pI inar.y. re c.q 7-el)." A ct I I'll Iy. a I I inve t I ,:I I on of the f act o f, I I I u ?.(, 1, 111'.4. ho lit e I'd "-:c pl, Im rv I)eca 71 o 1',1 t -11',! 1 1-01,11 iOTI,1Iij') Ct'm I)e ol)sei-ved I)Y lmm within tl,(, c( )n-4 I,.) ints of
Siwdo' plim, (-M(,crory of k1lowledre. The deq)er any qiii,,zl scientific, d1sciplille -Nelletrates into its own blocked out area of commm. the moi-e it becomes im-olved -vN-itli other di-pipliiies. N-tielear phySics looked to :1,41-ollc.rilv for demonstnahon of fiislon; geliefies con ulted wlolecular CiV"Tllistrv for eli.i.cidation of crenCS; t1le Stj-,(jv of plant, p,,()pn(ra1Ioil
an understanding of electro-optics. Nature, in slioi t, (Ioes not, I i (,cd tli(, disciplines r1lan has invented.
Orc, vv; N- real question is whether flie lar.1cre investment of pilblic fllml ill discipline( (] tic. resea-reb., by being cli:mneled into
tI)e artificial disciplines of science. is froom"I" 111 coner(--,te, as it were:ln obsolete an(I outwomi structure of knowled(re. Should we bolffly attempt to restriletum our discipli.Ies? Should Nve give thou.vIlt to the effect. of public investment in possibly perpetuating an ol) (.,let(, svstelli
() f 14: 11 () 1 ((1 re that may be obstruding our understanding ana our
(11"c'-f fol. 1,111.1,11el. eveiiivliiletlieyii i,-tkeconN-eiiienttlie
illipart ill(r of we knoNv- ?
scll -Ncr APl-1TjED
Sr ,, R
Sca.-Nc., 13. src
For in f11t(1.jT)t tO C()jjT)j11 710!-mitlve vrtln(, ; with nrld-n.-I selenep po!le.v. -o Roli(,rt W.
n. ''1,'rwir\%-wk of fo- S oiozice PolleY Amil.v,,Is and Tvchiiol, ,_- v A s
D"'Tit." M-!we F 11!,innlri : an.[ Policy F;ti!d:(-,. National S( Wiice Foundnt!()ii, mimeograph
I -N , -,- I T" I I ) , r I C ) ) .
1-:, : I t f, T I I -)t of Dr. C11"Irl(- clwltl(m TI. "Ck'Tipo PoPov Rc osroh Jlivi zlori, I'Ahrary of 1, vi- hl I'. L'!' (' -:. I I o I I SO. COP11111000 Oil nrd Ast rOT1.1 11 f I CS. SllbCOM
n Scit"wo, ITI(l Dove'oimient. Nfifir,11111 Sr"'twe Policl. IT. Con. Re". CM6,
I 1 r T i 't ) T i 2d S I T I J I I I V 7. R. 21, 22, 2! 2S, 29 : Amnist 4. 5. 11. 12,
cr 15, JG. 17, IIJ70. (WashIngton, D.C. : U.S. Government Printing Offiev,
SCIENCE (S), BEHAVIORAL
See Science(s), Social.
There is a tendency to associate the term Fundamental Science with integrative principles that shed light on several different scientific i1sciplines, thereby opening the way to many new discoveries in each. S~e also, Research, Fundamental.
The institutions necessary for the support of scientific research but which neither perform research nor control it. They include t e industries producing instruments, the institutions etablishing slentific standards. the institutions and other arrangements for docuimentation, exchange of scientific communications, interpersonal contacts among scientists, and for the training of technical support personnel in skills required in the laboratory. such as glass-blowing, electronic circuitry, instrument calibration. and the like.
SCIENCE. INTERNATIONAL (ALSO, ITLINATIOAL SCIE-NTIFIC INTERACTIONS)
As science and technology have become increasingly important to nations, the international issues have become highly significant. Furthermore, worldwide cooperation, beginning with the Internaional Geophysical Year (1957) has provided opportunities for interaction and cooperation, and cost-sharing, which have been highly productive.
Both governmental (United Nations Organizations for Economic Cooperation and Development. etc.) and non-governmental (Interna tional Council of Scientific Unions. Committee on Space Rescarch, etc.) organizations have provided mechanisms for cooperation. The organizational structure, personnel, activities, and results of this general field are loosely subsumed under the term International Seence.
The term Life Sciences encompasses a composite of highly pecialized sub-unit scientific disciplines for the study and control of iving organisms. "Molecule to man" in scope, it confronts questions and problems of life in: origin, heredity, evolution, structure and development; materials and their transformation processe.s; behavior. cnvironment, and disease. A meaning increasingly influencing investigators in the Life Sciences, whether or not they designate thv--,-._s Vcs as "Ecologists" (see Ecology), is the interdependency of the livin" wo-ld thus, problem solving in areas concerning food, population, renewable resources, health, and disease, involves understanding across the ntire spectrum of living things.
The historical characteristics assigned to the term "Life" had to do with the readily visible properties of growth, structure. repreducti c, mutation, and motility. However. since the advent of the electron microscope and molecular biolorrgy, living matter is now known to re i re
.,I I Ivv' vc I I I (].N. cm I I I) It, X i I It Iac(d I I I I a roy-,(T'a I I I /at I oil a I I d a vel.y ]a 1"ge 1111111r I I 1 1( .,1 T-( )( c -Zes. I o I I I v 111 01*0',l 11 P JIIS 'I IV T1101V t 11,M ].
<11ll I )C I ht'll, part ". t he phellonlelloll of 11 fe is IIONV lindc-I-Stood III lel*m> (4 i I le -:m w cheillical hlws that (-roverli alid ('11:11-actel-M the ll()IlI.-- P l Vl, W:11 Illlivcr- (,. It 1" hen" ( I.e., the chvillisti-v of life) that Ihe n'"t'hi ion III biolo(ry Is taking ldzlcv '111d where Ili'v Scientists expe('t I () :1(,l I Wvk, 'Hle ilext 1rellerat foll o f ad \--(I nces lit the (Iiia I ity of I i fe for Ill"I 11 1 nkl Ili,, f(]IoNv creat III-es.
AnOt 11cl, nvollition, just 1)(,(rlllllllllr HI the life Sciences. is- the coll,4 1.va I ion (" f t 1()-;(, e 11 v i I-olinieni s and res0i I rce- vs,,vi it ],-I I to t lie "cl icii iisof I I k, I t t e I f I. I I i s t N. pe t I I I I Ist, psvc-1101(w ist aild
t n e 1' 1,( ,c c I I t, rl
So (-1H)IW11-,t 11111st (h"d Nvitil ffi elwilliviol. of III-an J'he problvill
I f I.() I I'( 's Nv () 1-h i i's I I I t jlese d I sc 11)) 1 nes t a t a 11 long I I I't 11'- VvS011F',T<, 11"1111al)INind is the le:14 nlalla(reable of all.
Physical Science(s) and Life Science(-s) (see Seience(s), Physical and Science(s). Life), but is aenerally tal,-Xii to exclude the
or Behavioral zSciences (see Scielice'(s), Social).
SCIENCE (S), PHYSICAL
.-Accoroling to Nforriani-Webster, Secon(I F(litioi: "Any of tli(% sciencel; iil(Iiioled under the head of pure pl-lysics, or of the alfied science's,
1, y, geol gy, aQt roomy. meteoroloav,
However, 11ccordincr to a cominunication from a staff member of the National Science Foundation the, disciplines of mineralogy, (reoIo(-rN-, and meteorology, are more properly Environmental Svieiwes thall
Musical Sciences-According to this view eitlier they should be deleted. f roin the definition or the terin to be defined should read I'Science (s), Physical and Env-ironmental."
On this usacre Poliev is the noun and Seienve tlie adjective.)
Tlie Brooks Report citvd below) observes that "Science polky is, "(1 11011111111 Colleeived of as a deliberate a.nd coherent basis for natimal (10(lSIOTIS infteneing the investment, institutional structure. creativity, alld utilization of scientific. researell." Its SVOI)(- clwoilij):I ses --tile nat-m-al ;cieiicv,,, (presuniablv incltidiii(r the life scieiwes), the social
In, t1lis I )oth Science and Policy ave sel),irately (lefine(I
(q.v.). I'll I'll 1, Science, Poliev can be derived fi-om. the co*1.11)lillrr of, A by usacre, the term Science PolicY has
these two (kiiiiitio-tvs. 11owever, .1 e7 I
Conte to enlbr:icc, nt tho/ level of national government, two different,
Tll functions: (1) the political process a ffecti ug I I I e a.-tivity of orCrlillizatiow en(ya(ve(I in science. or in the training of ,;civntist,.;, and ?- 1_ 1- 2)
tIle politic:il dvvi-,,loii that velvet pai-tivulni, sr;cntitie activities for public siipp(at by virtue of their pen-eived potential coiJi-11mitimis toward :-o(,]:11 or political goals. Both dcal Nvitli the political process as ,I foriii of *nflii(, iice or control on I-lie condiiet of sciviltif'C aciivitics.
Ac(-oi,(ling to the Brooks Study:
In the first place, science policy means policy for the development of technology, as well as policy for science as ordinarily understood. It is concerned with the allocation of resources for scientific research and technical development.
It includes government encouragement of science and re
nology as the roots of strategy for industrial development and economic growth; but it also includes the use of science in connection with problems of the public sector. Because of the close association of basic research with higher education, this aspect of science policy is difficult to separate from overall
educational policy and from technical manpower po'licV.
But science policy does not comprise only policy for science-that is, for the creation of an environment in which science can flourish and choices can be made among scientific and technological projects and fields: it also comprises science for policy-affecting the ways in which scientific and technical considerations bear on important political decisions and policy choices in areas that are not themselves mainly scientific, such as foreign affairs or urban planning. Indeed, sonmeic observers have even questioned whether it makes sense to conceive of science policy as a distinct and separate area of policy. Nevertheless, science, including the social sciences.
penetrates deeply into almost every aspect of the government function, as indicated by the growing percentage of technical specialists in the upper levels of the civil service.
It requires consideration in its entirety as a set of means to other goals, having some coherence within itself across the
functions that it serves.o
With the increasing significance of science and technlmology for public interests and goals, there has arisen a large number of institutes, associations, and university programs investigating and publishing on this theme. (See D. Schooler. Scie nce, Scieontists. and P7'bo'c Pol/cy, New York, The Free Press, 1971.) Also, with the large sums provided to the scientific enterprise by the "public patron," there has been increasing attention to various aspects of science and government with regard to the methods of support, areas of support, institutions for support, etc. Both the legislative and executive branches of Government have been searching for answers to the various issues involved, and recently State and local government attention has been drawn to the issues. See U.S. Cong., House, Comm. on Science and Astronautics, National Science Policy, (H. Con. Res. 666), HearingTs before the Subcom. on Science. Research, and Development. 91st Cong., 1st sess. (Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970).
SCIENCE (S), SOCIAL (ALSO, BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE (S))
"The objectives of basic and applied behavioral and social science are essentially the same as those of other sciences: the scientific method is used to establish a body of fact and theory, demonstrable and communicable, that contributes to knowledge and understanding that
70 "Science, Growth, and Society," OECD, op. cit., pp. 37-38.
T ho ()h,(,(,t Of -Ztlltk, IS hv11a\-ioI-, dill't'l-clitlatiolls al-e 11SI1,11INd 11 : .1 Ilm ll(r t1w 1")how lll I I fit's
I kw lill'it of 111 1)(01 lav loral sciollco is Hit, iIl(ll\-I(1Ilal.
T he 11111t (" f (1 !1,11 ITI is Of ill(l*VD111M.-; i!l fm'lllai alid illf'ol-111411 ;()cial "I'Mipin(r,; and institilt lolls.
11,11ile bio1wri(-11 -,''iclitists exiTiiine aiiii-liato phy,,Iological and enN-i I v I I I I w I I Ia I 1', (-hws N\- I I i(.11 I wav etrect res In J)"It terns of ilidiNidtial
bell"IX-loral S(.l i ljtijS p. VCJ1010(r I -,tS, alItIll-Opolo(rists
foclis upon inanimate iii( iital factors or real or po 11OVI VOCI ellN-ironmental or social factors which cause patteriis of heill"I'Vior in the individual and groupings of indN-iduals as a conseqlwlice of socia], cultural, economic, or political arran(yoments, beliefs, t 1-a(l it lolls, ifist itutions and oppo rtun i ties. Such soci-il sciences include ecoIlO1III(-s, 80('1101oz,.-, political science, and history.
Ili the conduct of Science (q.v.), the product souglit is knowlet](1-P. T' 1i (, 1 r-- t3
problem is how to validate what is known. The coin-ention adopted in Gio Scieiitific Method is to assume that all knowledge i probabilistio. so that certainty is never perfect. Scientific proof consists of the al), 1:(-ation of locrical reasoning and quantitative factual evidence in ord( r to reduce the probability of error as close to zero as possible e.72 A i I i e r iva y of stating this is that Scientific Proof attempts to inar4- f,I five evidence in a lo(rical demonstration to show the de(rZ-ree ()I- certainty (e.g., by driving ficrures with 'In indication that they are. accurate, to plus or minus some numerical percent), and thus to indicate, the de,,ree of probability that a conclusion is valid. Replication of tests and N-erification of deduced effects of assumed principles raises the level of probability from hypotheses to "laws" of near certainty. 14xell so, it is a f frequent, event for laws. to be overthrown or modified by ftirther evidence.
SECON.-D-ORDILl'. ExFETTS (OR CON ,EQUENCJIS
All N,, lytical procedure to ideiitify particiflti riv s ,-,Isitivc MIST)ODS(Is of a to cllajl"( s IP r-:1)-Cific or other facloi-s,. Accordin(rto
the Analy *sis Corporation, it is deffi-iod as follows:
,I ,in(] Soelil (-Ionees: Outlook and Need,,." A Tleport by tho Belitiviortil
%,j).11,11 tee 11TWo'. I "lo of tho Corninittep (in Srionvo olir%. -N-Jinnil ("IdCMV of Sci('Ilcf-, and the Committee on Problems' and Re arch Cmlin,11 (Wasliin.-ton, D.C. : National Academy of Sciences 20.
mt-rvOlng to nofo tlio dilineflon Nt-we(,rj pronr and sotentific Proof. Thus.
be convict(.41 on witness, under conditions
ITI w1l;(1) rcTdIcat-lon is oven tliongli the probsbility of burnan error of observat!orl i- : folt lie cannot be ci)nvivte l on the ba,,F of a very bigh statIstleal probability th ,' I,(, (-rifi)rins to be knoiwii facui about the criminal. The teria "beyond peradventure (if ;I (1(111ht" is Clearly 1111selentilIc.
Repetition of an analysis with different quantitative values
for cost or operational assumptions or estimates such as hit-kill probabilities, activity rates, or R&D costs, in order to determine their effects for the purposes of comparison with the results of the basic analysis. If a small clane in an assumption results in a proportionately or greater c .hane in
the results, then the results are said to be sensitive to that
assumption or parameter.,3
Accordin to Merriam-Webster, second edition, "The gift of finding valuable or agreeable things not sought for; a word coined by WValpole [Horace, Fourth Earl of Oxford] in allusion to a tale, The Three Priances of Se.cendip, who in their travels were always discovering, by chance or sagacity, things they did not seek."
The analogy with basic, pure, and fundamental research is obvious. However. there is no obvious reason why the analogy should not also be applicable as well to applied research in all its various forms.
SIDE EFFECTS (ALSO, SECONDARY EFFECTS., SECOND-ORDER CONSEQUENCES, INDIRECT EFFECTS) (FOR EFFECTS, IMPACTS Is SOMETIMES
The purpose of all Technology (q.v.) is to improve the compatibility of man with his Environment (q.v.) in some explicit way." However, it has been noted that technological innovations invariably produce other effects, unintended and often undesirable. These may be inherent in the innovation or they may result from its misuse. They may be immediate or long range, decisively imhnporta+nt or minor, dis'irete or incremental or perhaps synergistic. They are usually related in impact to the extent of use of the technology from which the impact derives (cf. Diffusion of Technology).
Conceptually, the term involves two elements, an "effect" and the modifier suggesting that the effect in question is unmotivated and derivative.
From the comments received on this term, the impression is received that there exists some idea of an ordered structure of secondary effects (second-order, third-order, etc.) with time as perhaps another parameter. One respondent questioned, for example, the "merging of [Second-Order Effects] completely under Side Effects" and contended that the former "has a specific connotation involving cause-effect over time affectinc increasingly abstract or complex levels of the culture" while Side Effects "can include specific and immediate effects, expected or not; usually, it just means they were unintended or deleterious." In the physical sciences, Second-Order Consequences conveys the idea of
a chain of caualitv: th effect A produced by cause A becomes the cause of effect B which becomes the cause of effect C. In this sense, effect B is a secondary effect, and effect C is a tertiary effect. Also
a "Guide for Reviewers of Studies Containin- Cost-Effectiveness Analysi.," op. cit.
4 This is; the view of the nuthor o' the Gl sSnrv. It is not universallv hell. One respondent took scientific exception, holding that "the purpose is to satisfy man's needs desires." Another nonconcurring respondent suggested that the "definition shoIld point out that some side effects may be purely social consequences (e.g., the effect of the automobile on the faminily, sexual morality, and religion)."
included in this concept is the idea that effect A may occur at once, bl)ut that effect B will occur later on, and effect C still later.
In the field of medicine and drugs, the term Side EtTffect means
sinllply an unintende(I effect. Unfortunately for simplicity, the side effect of a drug developed for the treatment of Parkinson's disease may be discovered to affect male sexual activity and perhaps be prescribed for this effect, or a birth control pill may be prescribed as a hormonal treatImIIent to correct skin blemishes. Thus, side effects are not necessarily undesired and, once characterized, miay be converted into intended( effects.
These are perhaps useful distinctions, but it is not clear that they are universally adhered to in Science Policy usage.
Use of a model, generally mathematical, to represent a real system for the purpose of gathering information about how it responds to changing conditions. Advantages of simulation are that (1) it is typically faster and cheaper to simulate reality than to exercise the real system and (2) simulation does not disturb the real system.
Normally, simulation is done on a digital computer because of the computer's speed and capacity to store information and instructions. However, simulation may be done by hand, with an analog computer, or by means of physical representation, the latter normally in niimature, like a wind tunnel.
Typical uses of simulation include aerospace systems; industrial and inventory systems; physiological, biological. psychological, and medical systems; many vehicular systems; political, economic, environmental, and social systems; physical science systems; and instructional systems.
Related to social accounting (cf. Social Indicators), but applied almost exclusively to social accounting in business firms. The general objectives of corporate social auditing are to identify, quantify in dollar terms, and draw up a balance sheet to measure the social responsibility of a corporation. According to Sethi, this information would be used to assistinstitutions and groups through political process to assign relative weights and priorities to various elements of social responsibility, fix responsibility for overseeing performance, and assist existing and emerging * corporations to alter their modus operandi and goals to meet the new performance
criteria thus established.6
The resulting balance sheet would also be used to compare the relative social responsibility of several firms.
There is little consensus on the components of a social audit, but widespread agreement that there are significant conceptual, methodological, and (input and output) measurement obstacles to the development of such a social audit."7
Adapted from lnformntion supplied by the Federal Simulation Center. Alexandria, Va. S. Prakash Seth. "Gel ting a Handle on the Social Audit." Business and Society Re'i, iwrInnoration (Winter 1972-73 No. 4), p. 33.
7: nymond A. Bauer and Dan I. Fenn, Jr., The Corporate Social Audit (New York: Russell Sane Foundation, 1972). 102 p. (Occasional Puiblications Reviewing New FIeldS for scinl Slcience Development, No. 5): and "What is a Corporate Social AuditYt" larvrd Iusiness Review, January-February 1973, pp. 37-48.
Two types of audits are discussed in the literature. First. a process. management-oriented, and exclusively internal which inventories the corporation's explicit socially motivated goals and activities and relates them to objective performance criteria to assist the corporation in developing new goals and programs to meet observed deficiencies.'s Fringe benefits given to employees for education might be included, for example.
A second type of audit, oriented to the external environment and usually publicly reported, would include those "activities that [a corporation] considers socially beneficial and that may be of interest to such groups as investors, consumers, public bodies, and the general public."'79 For instance, it might weigh the firm's tax contributions allocated for pollution control and its own pollution abatement efforts in comparison with costs incurred by the community in eliminating pollution caused by the firm.
Various combinations of these two types of social audits are being explored.
See Externalities (also, External Effects) and Risk/Benefit Analysis.
SOCIAL INDICATORS (ALSO, SOCIAL ACCO-UNTING SYSTE-f)
In a seminal work on this subject, Professor Raymond A. Bauer described Social Indicators operationally as statisticsc, statistical series, and all other forms of evidence that enable us to assess where we stand and are going with respect to our values and goals, and to evaluate specific programs and determine their impact." S.
Subsequently, a definition prepared in the Department of Health. Education, and Welfare by I. Olson, emphasizing how social indicators would differ from currently collected statistics, read as follows:
A social indicator * may be defined to be a statistic of
direct normative interest which facilitates concise, comprehensive and balanced judgments about the condition of major aspects of a society. It is in all cases a direct measure of welfare and is subject to the interpretation that, if it changes in the "right" direction, while other things remain equal, things have gotten better, or people are "better off." Thus statistics on the number of doctors or policemen could not. be social indicators whereas figures on health or crime rates could be."'
The. H.E.W. definition has been modified on two counts: first, on the basis that to provide social guidance on action programs, a social indicator system should measure both inputs and outputs-in other words, both quantity of medical care and qualitative health conditions. which are measured against consensually accepted levels of health, health care, and health care delivery; and second, that indicators should describe quantitative changes in the qualitative components of a social system or an accepted explanatory model of a social system.
78 Bauer and Fenn, Ibid.
7 gethl, op. cit.. p. 34.
80 Ravmond A. Bauer. ed., Social Indicators (Cambridge. Mass.: M.I.T. Pres. 6 p. 1.
U.S. Deprtment of Health. Education, and Welfare, "Toward a Social Report" (Washington, D.C. : U.S. Government Printing Office, 1969).
('1ncp uallv. Social Indicators would be used( for police and profa'll guian'e in a w'lv similar to t he ue of i"porS o the C01n11l Of
-aItIhe1-vofreports f ti I( Council of ECW)conImIie Advisers. On, legislative proposal to provide such a system ca lled for a Council of Social Advisers.
According to Kenneth C(. Land of the Russell Sage Foundation, 'tree recurring g eltims for social indicators arising from t1he exigencies of public policy decisions are that social indicators can help (1) to evaluate specific programs, (2) to develop a )alance sheet or system of social accounts, and (3) to set goals and priorities."
I propose continuess Land] that thel term social indicators
refer to social statistics that (1) are components in a social system model (including sociopsychological, economic, demographic. and ecological) or of some particular segment or process thereof, (2) can be collected and analyzed at various times and accumulated into a time-series, and" (3) can be aggreeated or disaggregated to levels appropriate to the specificntions of the model. Social system model means conceptions of social processes, whether formulated verbally. logically, mathematically, or in computer simulation form. The important point is that the criterion for classifying a social statistic as a. social indicator is its form ation value which derives from its empirically verified nexus in a conceptualization of
social )roCess.sNational social indicators report have been published by several governments, including the United States, Japan, Great Britain, France. West Germany, Norway, and Canada, as well as by more than a dozen large U.S. cities.
Among Federal agencies which support social indictors research for applied purposes are the Departments of Health, Education and Welfare, especially the Office of Education: Housig and Urban Development, Agriculture; and the Agency for International Development.
The Division of Social Sciences of the National Science Foundation undoubtedly supports most federally sponsored basic and applied research on indicators. The NSF program has two main thrusts according to Murray Aborn, Program director for the Special Projects and Social Indicators Program:
One cluster of projects has developed around the objective of
trying to improve the quality and communicability of data likely to appear repeatedly in social reports. At present the support picue enters on several large multidisciplinary efforts such as:
a. Social Graphics.
b. Time Bu(dget Surveys.
c. [The Social Science Research Councils] Social Indicators
(1) Assistance with victimization surveys (Census Bureau)
(2) Assistance with scientific standards for federally supported surveys of all types (OMB)
SKenneth C. Lond. "On the r,'efinitlon of Social Indicators," The American Sociologist, Tol. 6, No. 4 (November 1971), p). 322-23.
(3) Assistance with the development of science indicators (National Science Board)
Another cluster of projects centers around research on integrated series of statistics within which indicators are identified and related to things other than themselves. At present, the support picture centers on several large multidisciplinary efforts
a. Measures of Social and Economic Performance (extending
the existing system of national accounts to introduce
welfare as well as growth outcomes)
b. Goals Accounting (estimating the possibilities for social
change by determining the costs of resource allocation among multiple societal objectives over fixed time
c. Urban Indicators (ascertaining local-level policy needs as
determined from models based upon the "consumption"
rather than the "production" processes of human welfare. Jointly with HUD.) 83
However, too much should not be expected of Social Indicators too soon. First, "the elusiveness of the concept * stems from the
multitude of views about the relevance and purpose of developing and organizing statistics about the state of affairs of the country and its constituent parts." Second, "[some recent] literature in the social indicators field * testif[ies] not alone to the paucity of quantitative data on certain social conditions, but also to the lack of fit between the existing body of social statistics and the several purposes associated with the social indicators movement." 84
Generally, a social or behavioral science advance, breakthrough, finding, or new technique (cf. Technology) which the social science community judges both theoretically founded (i.e. the causes and effects of the finding can be determined and explained), and also empirically validated, and which applied social practitioners or policymakers can use to effect changes in social behavior. A recent study of 62 maior advances in applied social science since 1900 identifies as "Social Inventions" in economics: social welfare function; understanding of economic propensities; employment and fiscal. poiicy ; game theory; national income accounting; operations research and systems analysis: theories of economic development: econometrics; and cost-benefit analysis (planned programming and budgeting). In psychology: psychoanalysis and depth psychology; learnming theory; intelligence tests; conditions refexes; Gestalt psycholog;y: pro ective teSts;: operant conditioning and learning; teaching machines: and scaling theory. In sociology and political science: sociometry and sociogramins; factor analysis; large-scale sampling in social research; attitude survey and opinion polling; content analysis;
mLetter to Genevieve Knezo from Murray Aborn. January .1, 1975.
84 Dr. Henry David. Executive Secretary Division of Behavorial Sciences. Ntional Academy of Sciences-National Research Council, "Social Ind!cators: Reverent and Irreverent Observations," prepared for the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Technology Assessment, La Garda, Italy, Sept. 18-29, 1972, draft version, p. 15.
t i v n T-infe 'qT I "I I N-Sis I inked to sneinl t lwol.- : coniputer si imi 1,, t lon ()f
-()C1"l] '111(1 pol It ical Conflict t 1)eol-v ,illd val-inble
- t I wh'1'-Zt W illodels of socla I prove
'fll Iv' (.It ITIL, 111'42TICC'S, Of
1)"If-led (-)?I puldW j)-o1*(- -' 1* -,w !c)n-(), other-, : St 11dies of SOCM I COTIt 1-11)llt ill,-(, to the soc]"I] -4eclirlty A ct of I ()f' 1prj<1ative behnviol. -'vilich led to J)"Issacre of t1w
kcfq(yf 1910 19-0, stud'eoof in'Tior'
?rl*()Ill) I'l-ohicills "Ind probleills of blnol\- ill A 11101.1c:1 which ied to
C olli't (1('cl';l0T1S- OTI CiVil tll(' '.50S, 1-10]ltl('('Il
Z(Ilence stildle-, oil deterience 1*11)pqCt]Tl(-r Oil 1)(d1cv fommilation In thc Defense Dep,'111111011t: soclolo alcal :11)(1 ',lilt hropolol(r](-:11 stlidles of
('111tunil variation which miderlay fol'illatioll of tll(, Pence Coq) : Sf)(1,01 _(rical stildie' of the state Of 111P 1111111MIltICS ill SOCU'h- W11IC11 prov](41(l flie basis for pa -sage of legislation, on Hie 'National Polilld'li ,()Ti for the. Arts and Humanities: and stndies' of linpacts of televil:_ion on society and culture Which in large pait stiniullated form:ttion of public broadcasting. 116
In the studyl Teohnicol Lnform4tlon for Congrrs.q, -,qii illustrntiv(sampling of important social inventions before 1945 is presented, as follows:
parliamentary procedure retirement pensions
the Australian ballot insurance
Fo(leral-State grants-*-aid mass public education
bualzeting and accounting methods institutional waste disposal the census public hygiene
Gowrnment corporations statistical sampling and (piality
joban(l personnel classification control
national income, and product sta- workmen"s compensation an(l 1111tistics employment compensation
110spitals opinion polls
clinics institutional outpatient care
work simplification surveys
The relition,zbip between these. inventions of applied soei-d sciellop and the data, theories, and principles produced by b,,ic)i(- research in the social sciences, is analogous to that in any other field of !-,cience. Invention has often come into beiD Cr empirically, without benefit of. ,in(l in anticipation of, the development of fundamental theory. In the (,I(,(-tric storaffe Nittery. for instance, the invention Nvas enipirical and t1w, tlirorv came later. So, also, with the wli(,(,l and the Codc, of HamMurabi. in many other cas(,s, theory pointed the way to sohition of a teelinolo-oic-al or social problem, such as Albert, Ein zf(' I T1 S H)('r)T-V ofthe, (1(juivalence, of matter and energy that led to the discovery of iniclear enero y, or the Pavlov and Skinner fliclories of conditioned re pon:;(' and reinforcement that led to the teachin(r machine. In oilier cases refinement of understanding led to the corre(-tion of a misconceptionsuch as the notion that metals failed by "Crystallization," thtit alcohol'
;,rl W. P-0sch, TOin Plntt. nTid T)IPtPr Svn ha-, ''C(indItionq Favorin( Major
!n Socitil Sr1eywo," Scierrr fr( b. 5. 1971. pp. 450-4-59. ',we n1sn their -,KpnndP41 vvr -(111 of 110,z ztidy : "Mnior dvnnco z In Sovlril Sclenc(- 'Sinve 11 90 : An AllnlN-1 4 (if rovI(litioll- nild Effoct- of Cri ntirity," Cornmunio.01(,ii< 273 (Ann Arbor : Ment:il 114alth
1110 i'';"e. 1,11(, j7nj%-of-, jtv ()f NIrlY 197M Iq
'A T!1TT1('9 A. lliffhtower, "Soine Sorial I-Zclonre Stiidip- -ind Projerts W hich Tlavl- M-1d ,qyi FM-ot nn Public llollrv." A (Irnft stiidv prepqrrd rirrnrflinir to tht, ln trlwttons of thp
on Crvornmont TZ(' :onrch, Covorririemt and G-n-rfl llwz-irch DiviRofort nce 'Sprvice. IAI)rary of Com r(-s (Jifly 7. 1l)(19).
potations were a specific for snakebite, that insanity resulted from exposure to moonlight, or that criminal tendencies could be eradicated by severe enough punishment."S
Originally, dry goods--cloth and related materials. With the advent of the digital computer, the term has taken on a special meaning. The computer itself, its permanent and temporary memory banks, its consoles, readers, and linkages, are called "Hardware," (q.v.). To distinguish the programs telling the computer what to do, and the "language" to be used in communicating with the computer, these elements are referred to as "Software."
SPEcIFICATION_,A description of an item. intended for referencing in purchase documents. The description may cite Standards (q.v.). or describe how and from what materials the item is to be made; or how it is required to perform.
A shorthand term for a sequence in which technology developed expressly for major (mainly aerospace) governmental purposes is then applied elsewhere with economic benefit. It is identical with the "horizontal" form of Technology Transfer (q.v.).
The encouragement of Spin-Off often requires some additional development and almost always requires a repackaging of information to make the innovation available in the new context. This effort is referred to as "technological utilization" (i.e., Technology Utilization). Such organizational arrangements as the State Technical Services Act and local technology utilization centers have sought to encourage and facilitate Spin-Off.
Units, quantities, procedures, agreed to by consensus or imposed by decree, and available for reference in the reporting of scientific discoveries, in specifications and other procurement documents, and in international or other technical communications of all kinds.
In endeavoring to explain its mission, the National Bureau of Standards begins: "If men are to accomplish together anything useful they must, above all, be able to understand one another." The Bureau then distinguishes between "the setting of fundamental standards and the practice of standardization as conducted in industry."
The former [the Bureau continues] has to do with definitions.
with specifving clearly and exactly what technical words mean, in a fundamental and scientific sense. The latter may be concerned with commercial definitions, but it is primarily involved with the task of agreeing on limiting ranges of sizes and forms which
shall be manufactured in large numbers
'<'"Technical Information for Congress." Report to the Subcommittee on Seione, Research and Development of the Committee on Science and Astronautics. 92d Cong., 1st sess., Science Policy Research Division, Congressional Research Service, Library of Con-ress (Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, 1971). Revised Apr. 15, 1971.
Foreword. Measures for Progress. A History of the National Bureau of Standards. U.S. Department of Commerce. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 19 f .)
A definition of "Standards" for industrial purposes is: Standards are practicable, p)rofit-provoking solutions to recurring problems. Established tentatively, they are couched in objective terms and are based on the consent of those affected.
They facilitate and often promote general usage of the best thoughts and practices on the subject being standardized. Standardization is anll evolutionary process whereby standards are
The source of this definition offers the further comment that:
A st andard is the immediate consequence of the standardization
process. It most often assumes the form of the printed doeument. However, it may with equal validity be a physical object such as a gage. It may be a sound, on the order of the radio sighal.... It may be spoken, engraved in copper, hacked out of stone, or put to music. If it was developed in accordance with the basic
tenets of standardization . it is a standard.
These "basic tenets of standardization" are: the consensus principle, evolution, solutions to recurring problems, measurables rather than encrali'ties, practicability, dynamism, objectivity, and profitability. Then the author goes on to classify industrial standards as follows: sIp ecIflcation, nomenclature, dimensional standards, testing methods, ratings, standard practices, simplification, and safety."9
STATE OF THE AlIT
A general term of applied science, engineering, and systems engineering. It refers to the level of useful development in some category of technology; it carries the implication that if design should call for performance requirements or a level of sophistication that exceeds the present stage of development it will invite a significantly increased level of enoiner ingo risk. Generally speaking, applied research has the purpose of advancing the State of the Art in the subject to which it is addressed, to reduce the engineering risk that might otherwise be involved.
Although it is axiomatic that all systems in the universe tend to run down, nevertheless this process can sometimes he arrested for limited periods of time. In the organization of systems, it is the function of Feedbak (q.v.) to arrest this. Such a period of arrestment, although never absolute or infinitely extended, is termed a Steady State. It is an approximation, a general balance, with no evident radical (exponentwi" or persistent deviation.
If it is recognized that all systems and all components of systems are in a dynamic Qtote, then they are all in a state of continuous change. Inhler such a concept. the term "Steady State," as applied to the total sstem, surests that (in the words of one respondent) "the rates and types of chanes are such that the overall macro pattern remains uncliturbed ao-inst the background flux of micro-changes." (Compare Ioincostasis, for a condition in which macro and micro are reversed from thlis condition.)
STo'nin in Mfr1nt1ky. Profitliv from Industrial Stanndardization (New York: 'Conovernsnt Pubications, In.. 1953, ,p. 1 14.
A concept of statistical probability. (In drawing blindfolded one bean from a container holding four back beans and eight white beans, the chances are two to one that the drawn bean will be white.) The lesearch Analysis Corporation defines the terms as follows:
The statistical concept underlying the prediction of the condition of an element of a larger group when tihe proH:aI aver-age condition of the larger group is known. For example, assume that an armored division, under certain circumstances, has on the average a certain number of tanks deadlined for unscheduled maintenance. The probability that any given tank under the same circumstances will be deadlined for unscheduled maintenance on a specific day is described by a stochastic
Excessive attention to the ait of cm comVent larger
system to the detriment of total system n romance. Literally, it means optimization of a subordinate part; but since all s-stems represent compromise of component quality toward tctl system performances, with limited total resources available for the whole, the devoting of excessive resources to one part takes away essential resonr es from others. For example, a school system that overemphasized (suboptimized for) automobile repair would degrade general educational quality of its graduates.
SYam.BIOSIS (ALSO, S:~rn r RE-~LATIONSItIP)
Sybosis is the living together of two species (plants and animals) for the benefit of one or both members. If one member c:o0not live without the other under natural condions t reitioship is ced "'mutualism." The most common e-.ailple of mutualism Is the actual union of algae and fungi to form lichens, the crusty. gray-green plant found on rocks and trees. Another form of symbiosis is '"commnensalism," a rather lopsided arrangement in which one member benefits without harming the other. An example is birds feeding on the lice and ticks of grazing animals. Commensalism is very common in the ocean where sponges, shellfish, and burrowing worms support other forms of life almost without exception.
In a broader sense, the food chains in nature illustrate~ a kind of loose symbiosis: They illustrate how all parts of the world of nature are interwoven, with a never-ending process of dependency of one species upon another.
An analogous concept of symbiosis can be conceived of in i.n.ustry, with various types of dependency of one industrial activity on another. For example, in the textile industry an associated industrial activity is that of the loom-fixing company. A more elaborate (though hypothetical) example might be an association between a cement plant and a paper mill, with dust from the former used as sizing by the latter and waste lignin from the latter used as an additive in the cement.
SYN1.1tGrSTIC E I
Wholl two PP)Ju v slittilar effe(,I -, hut Nvht-n :tppliod to 2n t I I e r
T)Yodiwe :III effect -reater III nul(,11011(le t1l"Ill the -sum of
111k(Ill >(Taratcl v. t ho I fit (III-'] ficat lon is called 'II'd tilt, plIC110111('11011 "', A
Iq, clc''t or
.11,c() io! :m d a i tnquilizell (11 I (r 10 4 r(, I I I I
N(WTIC AIEA' VIZENT i'A I-,,
of olic f. ".tor (,It m clit ill all A Social I lif) lll(,,Illlll(r Jplt fl l(,
OF lo Ill com -cl." -- of
the a: )Tl.vlll of AnalySIS (q.v.) I -S ed ill it "combillill'r- e.cr.. t1ii." 'l-z-olliblv of often vtarie(I and divel-so *d-_,'as fol-ces.
W fa -tors into one coherent and consistent, whole.
SYNTHETIc FUEL (SYNFUE.L)
Synthetic are energy products obtained chemically from oil
shale. tar sand '. by coal gasification (sPitivine) or coal li'quef. (';N1101oil), or by a, process (pyrol N-siq) in NvIlich ol-gallic !1latel-l'als are conVeN."d to a pety-oleum hquid by heat in th( absciwe of oxvgcti.
This terii-i involves the idea of complex, interrelated clements or C0111ponents working effectively tor'-ther in harmony to vield a siii(zlo desired result. A Rand Corporation research memorandum defines Ils stem" as "a, set of interrelated factors that are used tocrether to
produce an output.90
Most system.4 also involve communications from a central cmitrol point. CrOATMAII(T the operation of subsystouls and repoftimy back to the control point. at wbich operfiting decisions are inade (so, that the sYstem the capability of self -adjustment or self -correction).
Sev Feedl ack.
Accordii,,(Ir to one student: "A system is n set, of objects with relationships betl.veen the objects and between their attributes." Ile colitil""I"S:
071 / are simply the pmts or components of a sy flem, and flies
ni-e imlii-nited in variety. Sysleiiis may con,-J4 of atoms. stars. SVitcheq. Cprimrs, wires, bon(-s. neurons, mathematical
vari,--I1)1(-. e, tuitions, laws. an(I processes.
11.(, -ties of objects. For ex, mpl(l. in Vie preeodiiicr
()I)Jccf z listed have (amoiiy others) the follmviwr attributes: f rom other stars
p ed of operate rm t "I te
1, A, niid N, 7\TrK,,qn, ZvOemz Annllv k rind Rnnd
I'M ot-,:; Oct.
Ilelatio'sluips tie the system together. In fact., the many kinds of relationships (causal, logical, random, etc.) make the not-2fl of "sstern" useful.
For any given set of objects, it is impossible to say ,tr no iterrelationships exist since, for example, for a particular physical system one could always consider as relationships the distances between pairs of the objects. The relationships to be considered in the context of a given set of objects depend on the problem at hand, important or interesting relationships being included, trivial or unessential relationsships excluded. The decision as to which relationships are important and which trivial is up to the person dealing with the problem ..
One simple and useful definition is: "... a goal-oriented enterprise." (The definition continues) :
It is characterized by formal procedures for defining goals, for utentifying the tasks necessary to the achievement of these goals, for organizing to accomplish the tasks, for measuring one's success, and for revising the process as experience (data) dictates.92
See also Systems Analysis.
SYSTEM (s) ANALYSIS (ALSO, SYsTEM (s) ArPROACII)
The development of a system requires that a complete array of the relevant analytical methodologies (cf. Analysis) is brought to bear, each contributing its own individual methodology and serving its own particular purpose. The actions resulting from the products of these different analyses are harmonized to produce a coherent structure possessing Effectiveness (q.v.). The sum total of the process described is signified by the term System or Systems Analysis. According to one source--Systems Analysis is
* inquiry to aid a decision-maker [in choosing] a course of action by systematically investigating his proper objectives, comparing quantitatively where possible the costs, effectiveness, and risks associated with the alternative policies or strategies for achieving them, and formulating additional alternatives if those examined are found wanting. Systems analysis represents an approach to, or way of looking at, complex problems of choice under uncertainty, such as those associated with national security. In such problems, objectives are usually multiple, and possibly conflicting, and analysis
designed to assist the decision-maker must necessarily involve
a large element of judgment.9"
In chcltracterizir n the effectiveness of systems, main reliance is placed on quantitative data. Criteria of performance are expressed in numbers, as are cost, configuration, and maintenance data. Irrespective of the disciplines used in designing and developing a system, the facts extracted and used in the process of analysis will tend to be expressions of qualitative relationships.94 See also Systems and Analysis.
"I A. D. Hall, A Methodology for Systems Engineering (New York, Van Nostrand, 1962), p. 60.
92 However. this addition seems to confuse the Idea of System with that of Svtens Approach, and combines the two. Source: James A. Mecklenburger and John A. Wilson, "Learning C.O.D.," Saturday Review (Sept. 18, 1971). p. 64. a E. S. Quade, ed., Analysis for Military Decision8 (Chicago: Rand McNally, 1964), pp. 3-4.
94 In comment on this point, one respondent suggested that the "realities of any given situation (under analysis) may push one to the point of having to deal quantitatively or parametrically with some portions of the analysis."
()t '11 J)"T f0!.")I'11w(' of t lie
"Ill P 1 I'll" 1 1!0 k,!*--, I o f
I t T I t 11 t i Il
'1V !I v v., 1 11 tl"(,
Nv 01I T'( ) 11111 11
t L W ot ()1 :1 v 0 f t I I ; T I
i I I 2'r -o, t( I T if t T 1,0"ICI I
he 111(1 i Iv') f
I TT I I P f
P or :111 -1 n I <. n 11 'l f I I v cs-:, n r I (""I res f
i t t N"-] I S N' :' t r I I
I I I 's on,%, i io! i I r, (, n f t i c f i x e k I c cn t ra I 1 sL I I 'L' 'e"s of the (-,In
"I"hO CM:Ii- onpiits (or or qiil)ims "oiisl of
tll(, sy teill their activities. Lronlc,:, aild jnencuI'Cs of poi-formance
Tln' of fl'w slv"telll.'"
i 4-1 toriii wlii -Ii fi.is I)P(-om(, 7(, n e ra
,\vit I col)cept' of 11-imr met.11ods for tile iiflon of ])road
olltside .1" AN-011 as within the colifill("7 of t1le, term<;. however. 11"'111- e I 1 -1 o I o P q '--";
1C C I I C (' Z. 1111111ber of othel III
ivith -his concept; amomy them are, op ratio r0s(,,qrc!i (OR),
made betw(,Pn them. The scope tui- eba.racteristics of the activities cal*rled mi under these names i-ary widely, and there is 'not complete atrreetiic7il ,11noncir practitioners as to their proper definition,--, and ranae of applicability. Nevertheless. tli(, acknowledged effectiveness ('1714 inCr(' 'Iqill 0, of systerns amlly.,ig and rplatpd techniques calls for
general comprehension of its meaninfr
Wilkillsoll. in hi,; trallslator s note to F1111PS Lq Tcrl ?i;allr. (1 Zcrllws tlle i- (-opv of the title. as the Ili Zed of 071 Lildivid!1"ll teellni(jucs -NN-hich haA-e been use(I to sociire an y end '\vhatF0VV('r." Lassl-Voll is (11lote" ill thic.: same Sollrep as (Iefinintr FTecliniqlel nl- "tl)(, ensenible of pr") ', Ives hv which oil(, ,ivailable resoiirc(, acllieve valMIS." Aci-oi-,liii(r to "Morton!s iT11 Cl.pretat-joii of Ellul. tl o F rench writer sees any complex ()f T1I("lIlS for qttaini7i(r
reSjllt. 96 11 cc.,is iii',possible to distin(yiiisll Techfi nm Technology (q.v.).
C, w(,t rill7icliman, The P.1/,RtCMA API)rOaCh (New York: Dell rilblif'hin- ('0.' Ine.,
1'r '"'. : Ifr,
T'11 0. The Troh??Ofol'ral Ror"rty;. translated frnr.i th- Frenrli 1) r Xnlin WilkinW L 11 in-,odtictlon by Rohort K. NfAorton, first American edition (Now Knopf.
1, 1' vl
TECHiNOLOGICAL FIx (OR, T. Quick Fix)
See Quick Fix.
The term "Technological FiL" was explored by Dr. Alvin M. Vein97 -, -1 vct a oca
aerg" a an innovation devised f- th,( pir' p of corrcting a socia defect. oir example, a drug taken C'Iy to pre nC'A ilwalt~id cOilception as a measure 0of popui.-Lon control. mpiL hMasis of the Concept is on first-ordler conSequenles of socially uselu ~echnoioy. '1ne *.ficance of the term is conditioned bv tIe meaning attached to tec logical." When the scope of the term is considered as sharply limited to mechanical contrivances, the "fix" becomes mechanical, although its social consequences can still be broad. As the scope of the term "Technology" extends to the biological and social sciences. and to management techniques and financial controls, the inmeaning of thle termin "Technological Fix" begins to overlap with that of technology assessment and science policy generally.
Generally, a technological lag can be said to exist in a firm, industry, or national industrial system when a Technology Gap (q.v.) can be perceived between levels of technological potential or achievement. Evidences of an assertedly developing lag in U.S. technology vis-a-vis that of Western Europe and Japan are the decline in U.S. industrial productivity growth, both of labor and capital, and a deterioration in the U.S. foreign trade position.
Michael Boretsky, an economist with the U.S. Department of Commnerce, has identified three causes of what he considers the recent loss of U.S. technological advantage: a lower ,growth in investment in new industrial plant and equipment in the United States than in other industrialized countries since the early 1950s; an underinvestment in economically relevant research and development relative to other industrialized countries since the beginning of the 1960s; and a worldwide and practically one-sided Diffusion (q.v.) of existing U.S. advanced technology in the form of patent rights and licenses together with appropriate instructions. blueprints, and other technical assistance since the end of World War II and particularly since the end of the 1950s.98
TECHNOLOGICAL OBSOLESCENCE (ALSO, TECHNOLOGY OBSOLESCENCE)
A reduction in absolute or relative Cost/Effectiveness (q.v.) of a technological system, product, component, or input, caused by a change in the external circumstances surrounding it. (Historically, technological obsolescence has been associated most closely with economic criteria, but the term "Effectiveness" (q.v.), used in the definition, reflects here a broader scope of criteria.)
Obsolescence usually implies the appearance of a superseding item or operation economically or functionally superior. Various other forms of obsolescence are also possible: for example, a finding that a
97 Alvin M. Weinberg. "Can Technology Replace Social Engineering?" Bulletin of the Atomic Scienthts (Deeomber 19066).
9 See Boretskcy. Michael, "Trends in U.S. Technology-: A Political Economist's View," AmCricaK;n Scientist, Yol. 63 (January-February 1975), pp. 70-82.
given technological artifact, process, or svs,1em has social or medical ,ll-fundtion.. like tie drugs heroin or tllidomide. Pr a recognition i la! 1nV il)llicnt' :11onse l1e1ces 111y l)e coilit lillgly adverse, aS wit h sem e of the organic synthetic pesticides.
It is not ewort ly that Assessment of Technologia OlbsoleSCenC has noIt a:ttr :itedl attend' ion a:s an appropriate su")ject for policy study to tle extent that Techlinolov Assessment has done. vet tl Side Effects (of such ( obsoles(en(e (can h(Ie serious. Examples are thlie economic decline of Aplpalachia as a consequence of the technological obsolescence of ,oal as principal fuel. the loss of agricultural productivity that could result from rest rictive regulation of pest icides. and the disruptive effect on industry of premature or arbitrary regullation against air and water pollution.
A respondent comments: I would include also the impact on manpower when made obsolete b)y the waning of skills and the overtaking by new technical growth. In the past, the impact of automation lhas been of concern in this regard; more recently, the need for conversion ani ret rainii has been of public interest in connection with scient itic and engineering unemployment.
The term "Technology" in its earliest usage signified mechanical tools and implied machinery of various kinds. However, it has come to signify tools and their development and use in the broadest possible sense. It encompasses any systematic employment by man of the causeand-effect relationship (ef. Science) or empirical (cut-and-try) methods to achieve some desired purpose. It is the opinion of the author of the Glossary that the purpose of all technology can be generalized as an attempt to modify in some intended and desired way the relationship or compatibility of man and his environment.
Accordingly, technology encompasses all basic and applied research, all Edisonian inquiry, all manufacture and use of products, all knowledge rationally applied to agriculture, biomedicine, applications of sociology and other behavioral sciences, and any other rational human actions toward intended results."
It is hard to distinguish the boundary lines between basic and applied science and technology. The point is that both basic and applied science are a part of technology. Thus, basic science is an information function; and applied science is an information function with a useful purpose in mind; while technology is the development and social use of information. A great deal of technological innovation, over the years, came into being without the aid of science; and conversely, a great deal of the information uncovered by science has not found useful application but is still judged as potentially useful, or as the basis for useful understanding.
A distinction can be drawn between technology as a process and as a product. One author suggests: "Technology-as-process is those patV For a discussion of this definition, see: Franklin P. huddle. "Government Technology A1--ournout : Th itole of the Social Siences," Science Poliev Research visiono, Legislatiw Reference, Library of Congress. Multllith No. 10-246 SP (Oct. 2, 1970).
terns of action by -which man transforms knowledge of his environment into an instrument of control over that environment for the purpose of meeting human needs. Technologya-odcisuer stood "-s comprising the range of tools, macines, procedlure-s, etc., produced as results of technological action."10
Ak respondent observes that the -word "Technology-" has very strong emotional connotations for some people, who, read into it notions about "the Establishment," "Free Enterprise," "Excessive Rationality," "B3ig Business," "the Mlilita ry -Industrial Complex," and others. H-e observes: "You can't overlook, in your Glossary, these secondary mieanings."I
Ani interesting trend in the meaning of Technology is revealed by a comparison of the definitions in the Merriam-Wlebster 2nd and 3rd editions. In the 2nd edition, the word is defined:
1. Industrial science; the science or systematic knowledge of the
industrial arts, esp. of the more important manufacturers, as spinningi~, weaving, metallurgy, etc.
2. Terminology used in arts, sciences, or the like.
3. Any practical art utilizing scientific knowledge, as horticultur'e or medicine; applied science contrasted 'with pure science.
4. Antluiopol. Ethnotechnics.
Contrast this definition with that in the Mferriam-W1ebster 3rd edition, w hich is as f ollows:
1. The terminology of a particular subject: technical language 2. a: the science of the application of knowledge to practical
purposes: applied science (the great American achievement has been . less in science itself than in ---and engineeringMlax Lerner) b (1) : the application of scientific knowledge to practical purposes in a particular field (studies are also made of polymeric materials t~o dental ----Report: N.,at'l Bureau of Standards) (2) : a technical method of achieving a practical purpose ( a ---for extracting petroleum from sale) 3: the totality of the means employed by a people to provide itself with the objects
of material culture.
A ogeneralizedl process for the generation of reliable, comprehensive information about the chain of technical, social, eomienvironmental, and political consequences of the substantial use of a technology, to enable its effective social management by clecisionmakers.
Initially advanced as an instrument to provide advice to political decisionm-akers, the concept has been increasingly accepted as a policy service within corporate management of private businesses.
As originally conceived, in a bill introduced by Congressman Emilio Q. Daddario, in 1967. the process was described as**identifying the potentials of applied research and technolog V and promoting ways and means to accomplish their transfer into practical use, and identifying the undesirable
110 S. R. Carpenter, "The Structure of Technological Action. Ph. D. dissertation, Boston University, 1971, p. 28. Italics in original not followed.
bY i) i-od u ( t ; ,I, I (I s t I e (, ITt w I -, o f .< I 1 ('11 1 i (,(I I-(, rcl i :I i I d t v rl I
I10i(jrN* '11 :j(k-mice of tll(,*l*
the piddic of 0161, ImIcIltial III order that. aj)j)roj)1.Iate steps
maA- be taken to eliniinate ()I- numnilze thein.
III Ihc 1niojww1;0n fol, Conyres8. Teclinolop, ksse:-4111 -It \ ,,. ;,dchlicd III I'll(,
J'Wfore. (lurinrr. nml kifier tho hul!ding. of a t, ,clinolo(yleal
it 1-1 I1(1(TSS:ffN- to aild stli(IN- tile consequences
of, its (q)cration. The ohjectiN-e I,, to inipi-m-e tile inana(renient
Ihe tota] tcd1Iloj(),(jC,11 socictN includ;11(r tjj( 111*11*111'Z*
f4 con!- (,Tieiices whioli are unintended, unanticipated, and unwanted. As>es niciit includes foi-Ocastilpr ,jII(j predieti
ret 1").wt I\-(, cvalliation, and ctirrent, monitot-ing ind analysIS.
Mei ;,,ircnwnts invok-e non-economic, su1jective valtic's as Above all', asses:smenf,
tliat, cata,4.rophic coiI.-,equences of each proposed
new technology be fore
f; I by the N rr eer ng
s -udy of the sub*cct nationall Academy of *17n in
distinguished two different kinds of Technoloo- Assessment: probleminitiated and teclinology-initi,,ited assessments. These were:
1. Assessments directed to the solution of identified Problems
of society which are usually amenable to systems analysis for
their solution; and
2. Assessment to enable society to cope with the unfolding
chain of cause- and-e ffect relationships stemming from a new
It. li,is been ssuL grcstcd that to tliese should be added tNvo other kinds of Teclinology Assessment. These are:
L Policy-oriented studies; and
Studies undertaken (usually in an academic environment)
for the purpose of developing an ac-- ,,,ssment methodology, rather
flIan ac; an input to decision-making.' ',
I'll "Technical Iliformation for Cfm rross," op. cit.. p. 481.
102 "Teclmol() -v : Proce-,se,-; of As ,essinent aud Choice." Report of tbe National Aead..mof Sojeyle -s to tho Comlllittef oil scieTIC11 Ili([ Astronautics. F.q. Com--i-o -,. House, 89t1i Coi)-.. 2d (W :is1iiii-ton, T).C.: U.S. Goverl.illeilt, Printin;z Offico, 1911VO.
1 (1,1 ''A 1, t i i (I v of Technology As :essniviit." Report of the Committ( e ciii Iliihlio Eligineerim: Policlv. ".-'Itiolmil Ao"Id('111 v of Yll.--; Tweri ii to Committen on 'Scienve mifl .%-,trommfles, U.".
IIiOP411. f)th Con?-, 2d (Waslihigton, D.C. : U.S. Goverimici)t PrinLiiilq Offive,
For a inorp detail(,d d(-,,rrIption, cu,(, "Tbo Puture of Technnlo .r N. Assvs- Tiieiit in Polie v TrOmology Amse.- srnent bi (i 1)!1nari(- P.,711"ironmclit, 1,. Pirloolvi, IT)d C. T,: Iph Now York. Gonlori Mld 1 rv.ioh (currontiv
1111m offer,- tho N TO vr (- I)j2jj'jfjOTl i. follows: "Polic.N-oriviited TA Is of 111,11or Jiit,-r,,s1 to t1w lw-i '-itivv md, to SOMe ('XtOTO, (IM1011tIVe brinchf- of tho ,rvvrq1 lovel,, of to detprili'llf, the lpln;wt (if Old. TIOW, or proposed teelinolo a i en I prod' uct.s. (ir pr(wo --s ttro more ii,;uaflY n!-ooriated with in(lu,: trlnl or govorrimont ro !iilatory Pr(d)leni- or i,,suo-oriente(i rAs iirisv froin the feelhig tli,,it 'soiiie_llmiz 'kvron_ ofton tirti -Watetl 1) v imiw triril (Ativeiis, wroup!4, or pilhlie-hlterp ;t
THF- 1i:-:: 1w, P referre,1 to q z 'piopl(O- tvr1molo,-y Porsotis Ili nond, inic :)nd 110t f"T' T-oflit orgatilvitiori,, empl).ti-izo the (,oncelitual -Ti,I methw1olovic:0
(if TA and f(,r the Of.volwlioent or Vw tochnlquv ,, qual,'O- a-uranco, ,ijid
bit-clivity so n(,,, ffr tLe N-ilifflity of TA."
The author of this glossary is not persuaded of the validity of these last two additions, however, because the first ought to be the product of all assessments, and the second yields no substantive assessment at all.
In the Report of the President's National Goals sta '.l .a cfp was devoted to the subject of Technology Assessment. In it was presented a further definition, as follows:
A systematic planning or forecasting process that deli eates options and costs, encompassing economic, environmental, and social considerations (both external and 'internal) and with special focus on technology-related "bad," as well
as "good," effects.105
Out of these definitions emerges a concept of a purposeful and iterative search for significant secondary consequences and side effects (the "total impact") of a technology; identifying affected parties; evaluating the social, environmental, and cultural impacts: considering feasible technological alternatives; and revealing constructive opportunities; with the intent of managing technology more effectively to achieve societal goals. The process is a neutral and objective structuring of information about tradeoffs, priorities, options, and alternatives, to promote effectiveness in management decisions in the control and use of technology-not only in the present but for an indetermnaM.te future.
It is essential that the process not be confused with the decision process, but rather that it be recognized as an input to it. This point was elaborated in Technical Information for Congress in the passageIn the management of a political issue with substantial scientific or technological content, the political issue is always larger in scope than the scientific question within it. In principle, the scientific question needs to be dealt with first. It is important that the scientific question or issue be carefully framed so that the answer to it provides a useful and significant piece of evidence for guidance in the consideration of
the broader political issue.106
Moreover* Every technical decision that provides the underpinning for a major political decision should receive adequate professional consideration, and * the outcome and its justification need to be expressed in terms meaningful to those
responsible for the political decision."7
Accordingly, it is suggested that the process of Technolowy Assessment is one of three elements in the management of technology by society. The first is the process of science and technology, producing innovations as solutions to social problems and needs. These may be economically attractive, or may require public funding; either way, they may become candidate claimants for political decisionmaking. The second element is the assessment of these technologies as solutions.
105os National Goals Research Staff, "Toward Balanced Growth," op. cit. 0G0 See p. 506.
107 See p. 516.
t11*1I-k[ (1k,111"Ilt i" the lmliticll pnwe
(Al () .-Tcchllolocrical ForccnA III -(r," altholl(ril this 11,;age i z
Teehliol(),- Foivo:rt ln(rsigrmfics tile estimatill" of nx-alinbility or use of a jIIlj()N-,ltion, at soiiie.
fiil ur; tltiio. Accor(lin1g. to Jai-Itsch
T1', hb07, .q;(w1 forcra., ;n.q is tile probablislie
oil "I ]'(dat ivel N- 1111111 Colifi(IcTlee level. of flitill'o techilolocrN, le chltoloq;ral starts froin
to(Liv",; assured basis ()f h,1IoNV1edr(3 ,tll(l i 4 orielited towar& flie filtilre, while vornwl;pe tochnolo(lical fol,('Ca"difiv first
future (roals, iieed ,. desires, missloll., ctc. .111d Works
b:wi wonl to the present. (Gnbor.) The si0j(,(-t of N)th types
is :1 dvil'tillic picture of a tcc1III010,ry tl 11114(1- I)M(T -;S. TeChjIi)jwri(-,Ij fore(-nstina may I)e aided by anticipation 17id inay
-(Ien" to pled-etion.
This is a 1-:1 iorthand expression referring to a, pei eeived inequality in natioiial level of technological potential or achievement. as evidenced
tonal differences in such characteristics s percentage of gross iiatioiial product allocated to scientific research, rate of 1111-estillent in new c,8P*!,'I1 foriiiation, numbers of new products rippeal-i -.1 oTl I e a t ion,il I,, educational level attained by the poptilat ]oil, character of exports (and imports as "high" or "low" technology, (,t(-. Variolis publicatloll,- o)'Tered strategies for closing the "grap" aiid others
have t1w question as to whether or not stich a gal) in fact
Oxisto l or ( ollhl be precisely characterized or measured. The American Chal7f,)wc. hv J. J. :Servan-Sehreiber, erects an elaborate the isaround tile 1)110' )osl t loll th"It there is a (rap, favorinor the United St:ites, aiid that it. (-aii I)e by positive and concerted action of European
colliltrit's. Audies 1)y Michael Boretskkv, all ecnzion-iist with the V.S. Dopart.'rollt of Col-nillerce, advance the thesis t1int, there has been 11 (ra 4 1
the United States-and that it is attributable to pasL V.S. efforts :,,Ipportive of research and development, leadincr to the siimjI,)fin of itmovations in "Iii(rh tech olo y" (q.v.), but that such
a -t ,I zi I pe ri, rit v i s short-lived and wanincr.
TECIINOLOGY1 111Cl l
A flefbie(l and imprecise. term that appears to Carry tile implication that soiie kinds of technological innov:ition involve a biglier content of scient-iiie iliput than others While it is true that sonle tech11911 One r,-I), ndent (1!iestlons thl.q ronrept of technology assessment as a "pure" technical proc(-: : slw!* from tli(- politleal decislonmakin;z process. He questions not only Its feasibility mt vron It., dwir.abilitv.
'"Erch -TATlt-wh, Terlmo7ogieal Foreen0ing in. Perapectfve (Parts, Organization for Econwni- Coopoi-:01on and Development, 1967), p. 15.
nologies have been developed empirically, nevertheless it should alSo) be recognized that all technological innovations are amenable to improvement by the systematic application of Science (q.v.). Perhaps the nearest approach to precision of a definition of High Technology would be: hardware developments relying extensively or chiefly on recent discoveries of the Physical Sciences (q.v.) for their operational principle. Perhaps an equivalent term might be "Technology Intensive."
Examples of developments usually cited as belonging in the category of High Technology are aerospace, electronic, computer, and nuclear systems. Low Technology, by contrast, would encompass such industries as textiles, glass-blowing, iron casting, and wood manufacturing. However, in even the most traditional classes of industries it is possible to find evidences of intensive application of technology. In textile weaving, for example, the multi-dimensional weaving of unconventional fibers is a recent development. In fact, even in agriculture a very large scientific and technological component is evident.
See Technology, High.
Intermediate Technology is a term introduced and popularized by E. F. Schumacher to represent a level of technology partway between the primitive, indigenous technology of underdeveloped countries and the highly sophisticated technology of industrially-developed countries. As viewed by Schumacher, Intermediate Technology would help provide what the poor people of developing countries most require. for example, building materials, clothing, household goods, agricultural implements, water and crop storage facilities, and the means for processing the first stages of their agricultural products.
"Intermediate technology does not imply simply a 'going back' in history to methods now outdated. * The development of an intermediate technology * means a genuine forward movement into new territory, where the enormous cost and complication of production methods for the sake of labour saving and job elimination is avoided and technology is made appropriate for labour-surplus societies." 1o
An aspect of Technology Transfer (q.v.) mainly concerned with the transfer of technology for solving some of the major problems of society, particularly urban living, including solid waste management; municipal services, like police, fire, and health; traffic systems; housing and construction; municipal management and information systems; and pollution control.
110o Schumacher, E. F., Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered (New York: Harper and Row, 1973), p. 187. See also Schumacher, E. F., "Intermediate Technology," The Center Magazine, vol. 8, No. 1 (January/February 1975), pp. 43-49.
(.()!1Ip1(,x Inki Inco] plk'tcly
(q .v.) III All' I 111k,11 cleT1w k*:IjI 1w of
1. )m wle li-ci- :11m0wri. oi, hc llitua(1x(,(T1k!l[ cX,1111pli, ()f !'11" 11ki- lffmj 1_S is pi-ehw I ), fl ]].-toll
1. HM ((I.V.) A\;I- ,!( %-Ai),wd M 11,11"1011d. b:u-ed
011 111(, PDwC:"; 1)(1i'lected
*111kl o li t w ( wk fir-1 I l"'I 1,2-11'.: 11( 1 :, Ild t'llen 1*X(.,!_,(,(1 w L('1. P1'0(hW12r! in i rundlw!- of foivi'vii i-()w"'L cw It is not mil v t li,,It sonle of thes(,
W ill in (111" .f IA I.( 1 ki., oil tile
f o t I I o I-' (r
11 C )'I I 1 11 V.
T I LIX ',.Tl N
ed- I-, pill lilt o :w l ion. "Ilk! v I
IS. prwillets. or Avl!ich rneet J)otellt IZ11 plIHIC,
0 1, 1 1.
uie tilc trkw(<-Ir( r of lll!.r ol
ku., Nvledi_c froin it< (1,-vcloper: 10 'W C T" z Of <;!ch as poliei
inakers zind mana-rer<. A(,(:,)r(!*n!)- to Cirliker :md Tech1101()ILfY 1 -1 11 izzition cl Y ol. wl 11 1l11!_,-Iw:- :-z of :In enfl epreneur (pul)lic or privnfi,) to (11--)ply t"'(1171olo")-y to tan 111ti):Iale' Ilse, 01. '.1-ciation of a 1111111", tnh"(% en(l I)indlict. It 1.0"'CrIlINT svlionywou s with Innovation (qx.) in its enipli"'S Oil 001 Ill II(IrCial
principle or body of principles propoiiille(l to oxid"in plienomena, (yei,,wrally based upon scientific re(V !OP *M(Y' 1-d offen stippoi-1ed by Ellap1vi(-,il (q.v.) evidence. Theory, 1),ised ii,,n1n1.v ()it :I p),;0P/' 1' Iltlsonlncr
may be contrasted with (().V.). v-111(.11 is hasul
11"'11111v oil (I po.,?tC7 oi-iobservatlon -,in(] hot],
tlworv :ind empiricism TIMIAe use of I)oi!i of
When a flwory has been wlequafelv ftes("e," x;,! Qi0 4mitiated by st iipntific methods, and is gener,111y cwiz j(leivd i-w-en" by the 1-4cielltjfl(-, 0011-1111unityl it may be ternied a law. 111,,-e 1,nws of inotion
or the laws of fliermodYnamics. Now,,v(kr, if It them-Y is, c4ill subicct to some doul)t or fi,(is nol- 1 eell it Nvonl(l rein.gin a theory
in the parlance of so--lence .1114 In tl)ore 1 a fille
(list inct lon 1)etv-een a law and a t-ficoiyi.
Of tell f I I Pol-Y is ti-e"Jed I oose I y -I,, k1ml,r -4.viinn.vv;ous wit I I I).'- pot I I esis.
however, a IleolV I-) ( Mor" vel-lfie(l (,I, est-ab]is]wd Jatem(,nt of known phenojiw?.n whiIc -. hypothesis towai-d
Colljecfill-c". A contininlin of less- t-o I)otter-established principles micrlit
ill I SSoo. for exqTnpT(,, Gruber. Willinm TT. nnl Donald (1. fnrqulq. (,oflt( n4, Factol's in thr Traii, frr of Techno7og!j )fn --ncllusett,, : The M.T.T. Presg, 1969), 299 P.
range from hypothesis through theory to law, with some overlapping of meanings from one word to another.
The lowest level or concentration at which a particular p1henomenon affects a system; also commonly, but erroneo isv, the 10 vest level or concentration at which a particular phenomenon can be dteed. For example, the levels at which a human hears sound or feels pain are the threshold levels of sound and pain. respectively: the threhold of a change in a physical substance may be measured, for exam-nle, in terms of the boiling or freezing temperatu res of the substan-c or by related changes in the Ambience (q.v.).
Te determination of threshold levels may often be constrained by the limitations of detection devices. For examNie. some substances or radiation in any amounts may cause Tox.icit:y (q.v.), particularly chronic poisoning. The apparent threshold of toxicity in such cases would be the level of detection registered by detection devices, rather than the actual, and perhaps much lower ,thres] old of tox:icity caused by the first absorption of toxic substances or radiation by living tissues.
The concept of threshold presents problems in the regulation of some kinds of environmental insults. The threshold for acute toxicity is higher than the threshold for chronic toxic y. In the case of radiation, there are two conflicting concepts of threshold: one is that all radiation exposure, no matter how small, is injurious to exposed human tissue so that there is no threshold; and the other is that a threshold exists which is determined by the rate at wh chL the Ihuman organism is able to repair radiation damage.
Toxicity, or poisonousness, has become an increasingly important subject as the environment has become more polluted. Toxins in the atmosphere, soil, and water in the formn of fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, and industrial, vehicular, human, and animal wastes, as well as radiation, may poison humans directlyv or may be int:odl-ced into foods and transferred to humans through link2 in the Food Chain (q.v.) Poisoning may be acute or chronic depending upon the toxicity of the agent, the rate of intake of ithe poison, and the rate of onset and the duration of the symptoms.
Acute poisoning, typically, is characeterizel by rapid absorption of the offending material and the exposure is sudden and severe. For example, inhaling high levels of carbon monoxide or swallowing a large quantity of cyanide compound will produce acute poisoning. The death or survival of a victim through the critical period occurs suddenly. Generally, acute poisoning results from a single dose whie} is rapidly absorbed and damages one or more of the vital physiological processes. The development of cancer long after recovery from acute radiation dama',e is called a delayed acute effect.
Frequently repeated and extelndled exposures over a period
of several hours or days, result in subacute effects, dependilng oil the dose rate.
Chronic poisoning is concerned with the continued absorption over a long period of time of a harmful material inll small doses; each dose, if taken alone, would barely be effective. Chronic poisoning is characterizeId by the harmful materials remaining in the tissues, continually injuring some body process. The rate of intake exceed(ls the rate of excretion or detoxification; thus chronic poisoning can Iso be produced by exposure to a harmful material which produces irreversible damage, so the injury accumulates, rather than the poison.
The symptoms in chronic poisoning are usually different than
those seen in acute poisoning by the same toxic agent.112
Not all individuals react in the same manner to the same amount of a harmful material. Such an atypical response to chemicals presents problems to those concerned with setting occupational and public wealtli standards. To screen out hypersensitive individuals from exposed occupations or environments may involve the use of predictive tests.
The toxicity of substances is often expressed in terms of the Lethal Dose which is required to cause death in 50 percent of an exposed popilation (LD-50), usually within 30 days. An LD-50 level for humans is typically determined by subjecting a test population, like rats, to toxic substances and extrapolating the results to humans based upon the amount of lethal toxins given to, and the body weights of, the test population.
TRADE-OFF (noun, verb)
Foregoing some portion of one benefit in order to achieve some increased portion of another benefit; (or) foregoing some portion of a benefit in order to achieve a reduction in some portion of a cost; (or) accepting an increased portion of one cost in order to achieve a decrease in the portion of another cost. Other more complicated permutations of this concept can be suggested. The term is in wide usage.
TRAGEDY OF THE COMM3ONS
The principle that the maximization of private gain will, in some cases, not be regulated by a device like the "invisible hand" of Adam Smith, which typically serves as a national self-regulator of economic activity.
The "Tragedy of the Commons" alludes to a situation in which each of several herdsmen seeks to maximize his gain by adding cattle to a common pasture. A herdsman could rationalize and justify his action in adding one animal to the commons on the basis that he would receive all the benefit of the additional animal while the detrimental effects of overgrazing caused by his action would be shared equally by all the herdsmen. In this type of situation, some form of governmental regulation might be required to prevent the economic ruin of those who share the commons. The principle of the Tragedy of the Commons
"'Julian B. Olislahfskl and Frank E. McElroy, Fundamentals of Industrial Hygiene (Chicago: National Safety Council, 1971), pp. 417-18.