Quarterly report to the Congress and the East-West Foreign Trade Board on trade between the United States and the nonmar...

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Material Information

Title:
Quarterly report to the Congress and the East-West Foreign Trade Board on trade between the United States and the nonmarket economy countries
Physical Description:
v. : ; 24 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States International Trade Commission
United States -- East-West Foreign Trade Board
United States -- Congress. -- House. -- Committee on Ways and Means
Publisher:
U.S. G.P.O.
Place of Publication:
Washington
Frequency:
quarterly

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Commerce -- Periodicals -- United States -- Communist countries   ( lcsh )
Commerce -- Periodicals -- Communist countries -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
statistics   ( marcgt )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
Began with Mar. 1975; ceased in 1979.
General Note:
Reuse of record except for individual research requires license from LexisNexis Academic & Library Solutions.
General Note:
CIS Microfiche Accession Numbers: CIS 79 H782-34, CIS 79 H782-12, CIS 78 H782-72, CIS 78 H782-64, CIS 78 H782-34, CIS 78 H782-8, CIS 77 H782-95, CIS 77 H782-77, CIS 77 H782-29, CIS 77 H782-27, CIS 75 H782-78, CIS 75 H782-40, CIS 75 H780-16
General Note:
Reuse of record except for individual research requires license from Congressional Information Service, Inc.
General Note:
Description based on: 16th (Dec. 1978)
General Note:
At head of title, Mar. 1975-: Committee print.
General Note:
CIS Microfiche Accession Numbers: CIS 79 H782-34, CIS 79 H782-12, CIS 78 H782-72, CIS 78 H782-64, CIS 78 H782-34, CIS 78 H782-8, CIS 77 H782-95, CIS 77 H782-77, CIS 77 H782-29, CIS 77 H782-27, CIS 75 H782-78, CIS 75 H782-40
Statement of Responsibility:
Committee on Ways and Means, U.S. House of Representatives ; submitted to the Congress by the Vice Chairman, U. S. International Trade Commission.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 021345184
oclc - 24236499
lccn - 75645949 //r82
issn - 0098-910X
Classification:
lcc - KF49
System ID:
AA00023986:00004

Table of Contents
    Front Cover
        Page i
        Page ii
    Letter of transmittal
        Page iii
        Page iv
    Table of Contents
        Page v
        Page vi
    Introduction
        Page 1
    United States trade with the nonmarket economy countries in 1977
        Page 2
        Page 3
        Page 4
        Page 5
        Page 6
        Page 7
        Page 8
        Page 9
        Page 10
        Page 11
        Page 12
        Page 13
        Page 14
        Page 15
        Page 16
        Page 17
        Page 18
        Page 19
        Page 20
        Page 21
        Page 22
        Page 23
        Page 24
        Page 25
        Page 26
        Page 27
        Page 28
        Page 29
        Page 30
        Page 31
        Page 32
        Page 33
        Page 34
        Page 35
        Page 36
        Page 37
        Page 38
        Page 39
        Page 40
        Page 41
        Page 42
        Page 43
        Page 44
        Page 45
        Page 46
        Page 47
        Page 48
        Page 49
        Page 50
        Page 51
        Page 52
        Page 53
    Appendix: Leading U.S. imports and exports in trade with the nonmarket economy countries
        Page 54
        Page 55
        Page 56
        Page 57
        Page 58
        Page 59
        Page 60
        Page 61
        Page 62
        Page 63
        Page 64
        Page 65
        Page 66
        Page 67
        Page 68
        Page 69
        Page 70
        Page 71
        Page 72
        Page 73
        Page 74
        Page 75
        Page 76
        Page 77
        Page 78
    Index
        Page 79
        Page 80
        Page 81
        Page 82
        Page 83
        Page 84
    Back Cover
        Page 85
        Page 86
Full Text




95th Congress COMMITTEE PRINT WMCP:95-76
2d Session




COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES




THIRTEENTH QUARTERLY REPORT TO THE
CONGRESS AND THE EAST-WEST
FOREIGN TRADE BOARD ON

TRADE BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE
NONMARKET ECONOMY COUNTRIES

SUBMTrrED TO THE CONGRESS BY THE
CHAIRMAN, U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE CO-MM3ISSION ON

MARCH 31, 1978




N
MAY 1978 ,


APRIL 17N K L




Printed for the use of the Committee on Ways and Means

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 26-526 0 WASHINGTON : 197S













COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS
AL ULLMAN, Oregon, Chairman JAMES A. BURKE, Massachusetts BARBER B. CONABLE, JR., New York
DAN ROSTENKOWSKI, Illinois JOHN J. DUNCAN, Tennessee
CHARLES A. VANIK, Ohio BILL ARCHER, Texas
OMAR BURLESON, Texas GUY VANDER JAGT, Michigan
JAMES C. CORMAN, California WILLIAM A. STEIGER, Wisconsin
SAM M. GIBBONS, Florida PHILIP M. CRANE, Illinois
JOE D. WAGGONNER, JR., Louisiana BILL FRENZEL, Minnesota OTIS G. PIKE, New York JAMES G. MARTIN, North Carolina
J. J. PICKLE, Texas L. A. (SKIP) BAFALIS, Florida
CHARLES B. RANGEL, New York WILLIAM M. KETCHUM, California
WILLIAM R. COTTER, Connecticut RICHARD T. SCHULZE, Pennsylvania FORTNEY H. (PETE) STARK, California BILL GRADISON, Ohio JAMES R. JONES, Oklahoma ANDY JACOBS, JR., Indiana ABNER J. MIKVA, Illinois MARTHA KEYS, Kansas JOSEPH L. FISHER, Virginia HAROLD FORD, Tennessee KEN HOLLAND, South Carolina WILLIAM M. BRODHEAD, Michigan ED JLNKINS, Georgia RICHARD A. GEPHARDT, Missouri JIM GUY TUCKER, Arkansas RAYMOND F. LEDERER, Pennsylvania JOHN M. MARTIN, Jr., Chief Coun8el J. P. BAKER, Assi8tant Chief Counsel JOHN K. MEAGHER, Minority Counsel

(II)


















CI AIRMAN "

r% COMMITTEE OM






UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRW M, MMON W\ASH INGTON. D.C. 20436 March 31, 1978


The Honorable Thomas P. O'Neill, Jr. Speaker of the House of Representatives Washington, D.C. 20515 Dear Mr. Speaker:

The United States International Trade Commission is
pleased to submit to the Congress its thirteenth quarterly report on trade between the United States and the nonmarket economy countries, as required by section 410 of the Trade Act of 1974. The report is being submitted simultaneously to the East-West Foreign Trade Board.

It is believed that this report will be of particular interest to the Committee on Ways and Means.

I hope you have a nice day.

Yours sincerely, 0




Daniel Minchew
Chairman








(III)


















Digitized by the Internet Archive
in 2013












http://archive.org/details/reporttl3unit














C 0 N T E N T S


Letter of transmittal to the Speaker of the House of pooresentativos Page
from the Chairman, U.S. International Trade CoAvUslon -------------Introduction -------------------------- = ------------------------------United States trade with the nonmarket economy countries in 1977 ------ 2
U-S-S-R ------------------------------------------------------------ 9
People's Republic of China ----------------------------------------- 19
Poland ------------------------------------------------------------- 23
Yugoslavia --------------------------------------------------------- 28
Romania ------------------------------------------------------------ 32
Czechoslovakia ----------------------------------------------------- 37
German Democratic Republic ----------------------------------------- 41
Hungary ------------------------------------------------------------ 46
Bulgaria ----------------------------------------------------------- 49
Albania, Cuba, and the People's Republic of Mongolia --------------- 52
Appendix: Leading U.S. imports and exports in trade with the nonmarket economy countries ------------------------------------------- 54
Index ----------------------------------------------------------------- 79


(V)




















INTRODUCT ION

This report by the United States International Trade Commission is made pursuant to section 410 of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. 2440), which requires the Commission to monitor imports from and exports to the nonmarket economy countries (NNE's), to provide data on the effect (if any) of such imports on U.S. production and employment, and to publish a summary report of the data not less frequently than once each calendar quarter for Congress and
the East-West Foreign Trade Board. This report covers information through the fourth quarter of 1977.

The nonmarket economy countries for which trade statistics are included in
this series of reports are Albania, Bulgaria, People's Republic of China (China), Cuba, Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Republic (East Germany), Hungary, Mongolian People's Republic, Poland, Romania, the U.S.S.R., and Yugoslavia. At a later date, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and Democratic Kampuchea may be included in this series of
reports, pending the development of trade. Most of the countries have not been accorded most-favored-nation (MEN) treatment by the United States during the last 25 years. At the present time, only Poland, Yugoslavia, and Romania receive MEN treatment from the United States

In the Tariff Schedules of the United States (TSUS), the unconditional MFN rates are set forth in rate-of-duty column 1. The rates applicable to
products of designated Communist nations or areas are set forth in rate-of-duty column 2; for the most part these rates are the original statutory rates enacted in 1930. The rate policy involved was made effective by the President in 1951 and 1952 pursuant to section 5 of the Trade Agreements Extension Act of 1951, which directed the President as soon as practicable to take such action as was necessary to deny the benefit of
trade-agreement concessions to imports from certain Communist nations or areas. An examination of the individual items or rate provisions of the TSUS reveals that the rate discrimination involved varies considerably from item to item and sometimes is not present at all, as where imports from all sources have been historically free of duty or dutiable at the same rates. It is important, therefore, to look at the particular rate treatment in the TSUS when interest is to be focused on the actual or potential trade in specific imports.

This report examines the volume of U.S. imports and exports with each of the nonmarket economy countries and the commodity composition of that trade, as well as the balance of U.S. trade with these countries. Detailed data are included on the most important U.S. imports and exports in trade with each of
the nonmarket economy countries. One objective of the analysis of detailed U.S. import data is to identify items produced in the United States with which the imported products compete and to assess the economic impact, if any, of such imports on the relevant U.S. industry and on employment within that industry.

This quarterly report contains a country-by-country summary of United
States trade with the nontmarket economies during 1977, including a review of important changes in the commercial relations that may impact on future U.S.-NME trade. The analysis for each country contains data on trade in broad product categories during 1977 as well as in 3 previous years.

(1)







2



UNITED STATES TRADE WITH THE NONMARKET ECONOMY COUNTRIES IN 1977

In stark contrast to the largest overall U.S. trade deficit in history, a
record $26.7 billion in 1977, the United States continued to enjoy a surplus in its trade with the NME countries, as-exports to these countries exceeded imports by $1.6 billi 'on (table 1). This, however, represents a decline from the 1975 and 1976 surplus levels of $2.2 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively. Total trade between the United States and the NME countries also retreated, falling from a record $5.4 billion in 1976 to $4.5 billion in 1977, just short of the 1975 total of $4.6 billion, 1/

U.S. imports from the NME countries in 1977 increased less than 1 percent over the 1976 level. As the value of U.S. imports from the world soared with the value of petroleum and manufactured goods imports, the NI4E share of the total shrank to less than 1 percent. U.S. exports to these countries have fluctuated irregularly since 1975, rising from $3.4 billion in that year to a record $3.9 billion in 1976, then falling to $3.1 billion in 1977. This decline in the face of advancing U.S. world exports in 1977 resulted in a fall in the NI4E share of exports to 2.6 percent. The change in the levels of U.S. exports to the NME countries have generally paralleled changes in the levels of grain sales to these countries. U.S. noncereal exports to these countries have not varied significantly since 1975, remaining at about $2 billion a year

The commodity composition of U.S. trade with the NI4E countries and with the world is presented in table 2. U.S. world imports are clearly dominated
by finished manufactured goods 2/ and mineral fuels, principally petroleum based. These items accounted Jfor over 66 percent of the total value of U.S. imports in 1977. U.S. imports from the NI4E countries in these categories accounted for only 42 percent of total U.S. imports from the NME's, while
imports of food, beverages, tobacco, crude materials, and semimanufactures 3/ represented 53 percent. U.S. purchases of finished manufactures from the NMEcountries are growing, however, and in 1977 represented over 31 percent of the total, an increase of 4 percentage points from 1976. Imports of finished manufactures, including footwear, textiles and textile clothing, wood furniture, and glass and glassware, accounted for at least half of total
imports from Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia in the last quarter of 1977 (table 3).

U.S. world exports are clearly concentrated in finished manufactures, A which accounted for 52 percent of the total in 1977. Exports to the NME countries on the other hand, are equally heavily concentrated in sales of food, beverage, tobacco, and crude materials' products. Representing 59 percent of the value of U.S. shipments to NIAE countries, these exports consisted primarily of grains, soy products, animal hides, and woodpulp. In
the last quarter of 1977, over half of U.S. exports to the U.S.S.R., Poland, Romania, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia came under the food, beverage, tobacco, and crude materials categories (table 4).

l/ Total trade is the sum of exports and imports.
2/ Schedule A group nos. 7, 8, and 9.
3/ Semimanufactures are classified as schedule A group no. 6.
4/ Schedule B group nos. 7, 8, and 9.









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4



able 2.--Conmmodity composition of U.S. trade with the world and with the nonmarket economy countries, 1976 and 1977

: U.S. trade : U.S. trade
Sc hedue Description with the world : with NE's
1976 1977 1976 1977
Exports
: (In millions of U.S. dollars)

0, 1 Food, beverages, an: tobacco ---------------: 17,233 : 15,975 : 2,123 : 1,303
2, 4 Cru!< m.ateriAs ---------------------------- 11,869 : 14,097 : 360 : 507
3 Mi neral fuels z vd lubricants ---------------: 4,226 4,167 35 : 86
5 Cher" cals- -------------------------------------: 9,958 10,827 124 : 121
6 :zanufactured i goods classified by chief :
material --------------------------------- 11,205 11,287 211 145
7, 8, 9 Other manufactured goods and :
miscellaneous ---------------------------- 58,831 61,608 : 1,074 902
iotal I/ ------------------------------- 113,322 117,963 : 3,927 3,C33
Schedule Imports
A io. : (In millions of U.S. dollars)

0, 1 : Food, beverages, and tobacco ---------------- 11,681 : 14,058 : 292 297
2, 4 Crude materialss ---------------------------- 7,357 8,334 117 : 130
3 Mineral fuels and lubricants ---------------- 34,008 44,082 148 159
5 : Chemicals ----------------------------------: 4,738 : 5,407 : 72 68
6 Manufactured goods classified by chief
material ---------------------------------: 17,531 21,287 402 : 336
7, 8, 9 Other manufactured goods and
miscellaneous ----------------------------: 44,700 52,880 389 453
Total 1/ ------------------------------------ 120,014 146,04 : 1,419 1 ,43
Schedule Exports
B No. (Percent)

0, 1 Food, beverages, and tobacco --------------- 15.2 13.5 : 54.1 : 42.5
2, 4 : Crude materials ---------------------------- 10.5 12.0 9.2 16.6
3 : Mineral fuels and lubricants --------------- 3.7 3.5 0.9 2.8
5 : Chemicals ----------------------------------8.8 9.2 3.1 : 4.0
6 : Manufactured goods classified by chief
material --------------------------------- 9.9 : 9.6 5.4 4.7
7, 8, 9 Other manufactured goods and :
miscellaneous ---------------------------- 51.9 52.2 27.3 : 29.5
iotal I/ -------------------------------: 100.0 100.0 : 100.0 100.0
Schedule Imports
A No. (Percent)
O: ,,: 9. 9. 2. : 2.
0, 1 : Food, beverages, and tobacco --------------- 9.7 9.6 : 20.6 : 20.6
2, 4 : Crude materials ----------------------------: 6.1 : 5.7 : 8.2 : 9.0
3 : Nineral fuels and lubricants --------------- 28.3 : 30.2 : 10.4 : 11.0
5 Chemicals---------------------------------- 4.0 : 3.7 : 5.1 : 4.7
6 : Manufactured goods classified by chief
material --------------------------------- 14.6 14.6 : 28.3 23.3
7, 8, 9 Other manufactured goods and :
miscellaneous ----------------------------: 37.3 : 36.2 27.4 31.4
Total I/ -- ------------------------------100.0 : 100.0 IU.o : 100.0

1/ Figures may not add to totals shown because of rounding.

Source: Data on U.S. trade with the world from U.S. Department of Commerce
publication FfI)iO, tables 4 and 3B; data on U.S. trade with NilE's from the Bureau of Last-West 'jrade.











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Imports for consumption from nine of the twelve NME countries covered in
this report increased in value in 1977 over the previous year; only imports from Yugoslavia, Hungary, and Mongolia decreased (table 5). This reduction
was particularly steep in the case of Yugoslavia, as U.S. imports of copper, zinc, lead, and aluminum from that country fell far short of 1976 levels.
Imports from Yugoslavia in 1977 remained substantially higher than the 1975 amount however, and most of the N'THE countries enjoyed significantly increased exports to the United States in 1977 when compared with 1975 totals.

The nearly $900 million decline in U.S. exports to the YmE countries in
1977 was not evenly distributed, but was centered in those countries which had major purchases of U.S. grain in the previous year--the U.S.S.R., Poland, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Bulgaria. Exports to six other NME countries increased over the 1976 amounts (table 6).

U.S. exports of cereals and cereal products to the NNE countries since
1975 are shown in table 7. Consisting largely of wheat and corn, U.S. sales
of these items fell nearly $800 million, from $1.9 billion in 1976 to $1.1 billion in 1977. A small part of this decline was due to the falling unit
values of U.S. grain exports during 1977, paralleling the decline in world grain prices. The most important factors, however, were that generally good harvests in most Eastern European countries in 1977 and adequate Soviet stocks from the record 1976 harvest in that country reduced the need for supplementary NME purchases from the United States in 1977. Only Hungary increased its imports of U.S. grain in 1977. The steep decline in sales to regular customers such as the U.S.S.R. and Poland accounted for most of the contraction, and the NME share of total U.S. cereal exports fell to 12.8 percent from the 1976 level of 17.8 percent.

Figures 1 and 2 portray the individual country shares of total U.S. trade with the NME countries. The import shares remained essentially the same in 1977 as they had been in 1976. However, the Romanian share in 1977 increased to 16 percent from 14.1 percent in 1976, primarily because of the substantial increase in U.S. purchases of manufactured goods from that country. The reduced nonferrous metal imports from Yugoslavia caused that country's share to drop to about 23 percent in 1977 from 27 percent the previous year.
Increased U.S. imports for consumption of Bulgarian tobacco in 1977 are reflected in the increased percentage accounted for by the sector, "all
others." The distribution of U.S. exports among the NIME countries is far less even than the distribution of imports. Although the significant drop in U.S. grain exports to the Soviet Union caused its share of total exports to drop to 53.1 percent from nearly 59 percent in 1976 that country's imports from the United States still dominate U.S.-NME trade.



U.S.S.R.

Trade between the United States and the U.S.S.R., which had expanded
dramatically between 1970 and 1976y fell to its lowest level in three years in 1977. Increasing from less than $200 million in 1970 to a peak of over $2.5 billion in 1976, total two-way trade between the two countries dropped $700








10





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million to $1.8 billion in 1977 (table 8). For the most part, this growth in
trade and its subsequent decline has been based on U.S. exports, which grew from $118 million in 1970 to $2.3 billion in 1976, and then declined to $1.6
billion in 1977. Grain, tractors, machine tools, and other heavy machinery made up the bulk of these export sales.

Annual U.S. imports from the Soviet Union increased from $72 million in 1970 to a peak of $334 million in 1974, but have not exceeded $250 million since that year. Imports in 1977 reached $219 million, a slight increase over imports in 1976, primarily because of the increased value of petroleum imports. The composition of imports has remained relatively stable since 1975, with petroleum and petroleum products, nonferrous metals, metal scrap and ores, diamonds, and artworks accounting for well over three-quarters of the value of imports during this period.

There are several factors that have affected U.S.-Soviet trade and will affect the development of U.S.-Soviet trade during the next few years. They fall into two broad catgea,:,ories: (1) the availability of hard currency in the Soviet Union and, (2) U.S. trade policy. The first of these is probably the
most important, since the capacity of the U.S.S.R. to import from the United States, as well as from other developed Western nations, depends directly on
the ability to earn or to borrow the hard currency to pay for the purchased goods. Although the Soviet trade deficit with the non-Communist world
declined from a peak of $6.3 billion in 1975 to less than $4.0 billion in 1977, the overall Soviet net outstanding hard currency debt continuedd to increase and reached an estimated $17 billion by the end of 1977.

Soviet trade with the United States has been chronically in deficit in the
1970's, with the shortfall growing from a relatively modest $46 million in 1970 to over $2.0 billion in 1976. Although the deficit declined to $1.4
billion in 1977, this still represented one-third of the total Soviet hard-currency trade deficit in that year. If this gap cannot be narrowed by increased Soviet exports to the United States, by hard-currency surpluses with other countries or by borrowing, the future development of trade may be tightly constrained.

In recent years exports of petroleum and petroleum products to the
non-Communist world have accounted for up to one-half of hard-currency export receipts. However, this may not continue to be the case. A report on Soviet petroleum production published by the Central Intelligence Agency in early 1977 projected declining petroleum output through 1965. Since Soviet economicplans will require an increasing supply for domestic use throughout
this period, the report concluded that Soviet petroleum exports to the non-Communist world would decline and possibly even cease by the early 1980's. in fact, Soviet crude petroleum output did not meet 1977 planned goals. A curtailment of Soviet petroleum exports to the non-Communist world would significantly affect Soviet capacity to import from the West, unless other hard-currency exports are developed or expanded.

Soviet spokesmen are placing increased emphasis on counterpurchase
agreements to help ease the credit and hard-currency constraints. Although
the practice of paying for industrial goods imports with fjt*-!re output has been most frequently seen in raw materials development projects such as










16






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natural gas, the Soviets maintain that manufactured goods will also eventually
be used in such arrangements. The counterpurchase factor in U.S.-Soviet trade is expected to reach 38 percent by 1980.

The second category that has had an important bearing on U.S.-Soviet trade, or at least has encouraged Soviet rhetoric, is that of U.S. trade policy, specifically U.S. trade and credit restrictions. It is difficult to quantify the impact on U.S.-Soviet trade of the restrictions contained in the
Trade Act of 1974 and the Export Administration Act of 1969. However, it was clearly indicated in 1977 that the U.S.S.R. considers the restrictions
intolerable, and will divert as much trade as possible to countries that will offer trade treatment and government-financed export credit on a nondiscriminatory basis. In May 1977, the Soviet Foreign Trade Minister, N. Patolichev, speaking before a meeting of the U.S.-U.S.S.R. Trade and Economic Council, announced his country's intention to slash non-agricultural imports from the United States because of these restrictions.

The current Soviet 5-year plan calls for a massive upgrading of the
technological content of their industry, and this implies a continuing demand for industrial products from the West. Good credit terms, free access to high technology items, and an open market for their exports in other countries may discourage purchases from the United States. The U.S.S.R. has concluded agreements with France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Japan for hundreds of
millions of dollars in exports of plants and heavy machinery. These sales are financed by the official export credit and insurance agencies in the
countries, often at concessionary rates of interest, and for long periods of time.


U.S. exports

Despite the declining value of U.S. exports to the U.S.S.R., grains,
animal feed and heavy machinery continued to be the most important export items (table 8). Grain is currently the principal U.S. export to the U.S.S.R.) accounting for over 50 percent of the value of exports since 1975. Exports of unfilled wheat and corn totaled over $823 million in 1977.

Soviet grain purchases from the United States have fluctuated widely in recent years, and problems have resulted as unexpectedly large purchases strained U.S. stocks inducing large price increases. In order to stabilize
this market, the U.S.-Soviet Grain Agreement was negotiated in 1975, calling for minimum annual Soviet purchases of U.S. wheat and corn totaling 6 million
metric tons. Purchases in excess of 8 million tons (increased to 15 million tons for FY 1978) will require intergovernmental consultation. Three of the
last five Soviet harvests, including this year's crop, have fallen short of planned levels, and it is believed that Soviet grain imports from the United States will reach at least 15 million tons in FY 1978. The total value of U.S. grain exports to the U.S.S.R. is expected to be about $2.0 billion in 1978, more than twice the 1977 level.

Under provisions of the Trade Act of 1974, commercial grain and other agricultural commodity exports to the U.S.S.R. are currently ineligible to
receive export credit financing through the Commodity Credit Corporation







is



(CCC), a federally chartered corporation administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. A bill (S. 2385) was introduced in the U.S. Senate in late 1977, that would nullify the prohibition on CCC credits to certain nonmarket economies. The bill also provides for credit terms for all countries to be extended from a three-year limit to a 10-year limit. If it becomes law, U.S. agricultural exports to the U.S.S.R. ma benefit significantly.

Exports of machinery and transport equipment are the second major
component of U.S. trade with the U.S.S.R. Exports in this category peaked in 1975 at $547 million and accounted for 29 percent of the total. Although falling to $374 million in 1977, these products still represent over one-fifth of the value of U.S. exports to the U.S.S.R. Tractors, metalworking machine tools, gas turbines,-construction and mining equipment, pumps, and other heavy machinery are major exports in this category.

Tables in the appendix to this report provide data on leading trade
items. Other major export items included pressure sensitive plastic tape, calcinate petroleum coke, finished iron and steel parts and pipes, compound catalysts, molybdenum ore, and almonds.


U.S- imports

In contrast to the structure of U.S. trade with most other developed
countries, a substantial share of the total value of U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R. is accounted for by raw materials and semimanufactured goods. Petroleum and petroleum products, nonferrous metals, scrap, and ores, sheet glass, hardboard and plywood, diamonds, and furs represented 84 percent of the value of total imports in 1977. Paintings, coins, stamps, antiques, and other artworks brought the total to 90 percent. Machinery and transport equipment and miscellaneous manufactured goods accounted for less than 2 percent of U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R.

Petroleum and petroleum products and nonferrous metals were the two
largest import categories. Imports of petroleum goods increased to $64.1 million in 1977. Although less than 0.2 percent of the value of total U.S. petroleum imports, this was still a significant increase from the 1976 level of $54.3 million. These products accounted for roughly 30 percent of U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R. in 1977. The share of nonferrous metals, principally the platinum group metals--platinum, palladium, and rhodiumg has averaged approximately one-quarter of total imports since 1975, and these products figure prominently in the list of leading items imported in 1977 (table A-1). U.S. demand for platinum group metals exists in a variety of industries, including the automobile, chemical, petroleum, electrical, glass, pharmaceutical and jewelry industries. Since 1975, the largest U.S. market for these metals has been for use in automotive catalytic converters to purify engine emissions. Although recycling of scrapped converters will recover a growing amount of these metals, the automobile market will provide a growing demand, and it is expected that Soviet output and export of these metals will increase over time in order to expand hard currency earnings. Other nonferrous metal imports include nickel and titanium metals, chrome ore, and aluminum scrap. This last item has become a major import, increasing in value from $4.0 million in 1975 to $25.1 million in 1977.







19



The value of Soviet cut diamonds imported by the United States has risen in recent years, from $9.2 million in 1975 to $10.6 million in 1976, and to $14.1 million in 1977. This is due partially to a change in Soviet marketing
strategy from the earlier practice of exporting the stones in a rougher, unfinished state, as cut stones provide.increased export revenues. Imports of
whole, raw sable furskins totaled over $8 million in 1977, an impressive increase over the 1975 and 1976 levels of $2.2 million and $5.3 million,
respectively. U.S. purchases of paint-ings, metal coins, antiques, and postage stamps from the U.S.S.R., on the other hand, declined from $15.4 million in 1976 to $9.5 million in 1977. These artworks account for virtually all of the imports in the miscellaneous manufactures category.

'. Imports of machinery and transport equipment from the U.S.S.R. have declined steadily since 1975, and totaled only $3.1 million in 1977. The
major items imported in this group are agricultural tractors, which have been marketed in the United States since 1974 by a division of the Satra
Corporation. in early 1977, Belarus Machinery Inc., wholly owned by the Soviet Foreign Trade Organization (FTO), Tractoroexport, was incorporated in
Wisconsin, and took over the distribution of Soviet-made Belarus tractors in the United States. These machines generally have power-ratings of less than
100 horsepower, and compete most directly with other imported tractors sold in the United States under domestic brand names. Sales since 1974 have totaled
only about $7 million, and U.S. imports in 1977 declined to $1.3 million from the 1976 level of $1.7 million.



PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

After a substantial decline in 1976, trade between the United States and
the People's Republic of China rose moderately in 1977 to $369 million (table 9). U.S. exports to China, which had been declining since a peak level in
1974 of $820 million, grew modestly in 1977 to $171 million, a 27 percent increase over 1976. U.S. imports from China continued to expand and reached a record $197 million, I percent above the previous record of $195 million established in 1976. Nevertheless, the United States sustained its second
straight trade deficit with China, after 4 years of surpluses with an aggregate value of $1.5 billion.

Since the purging of the "Gang of Four" in late 1976, the post-Mao
leadership has directed its efforts towards modernizing and expanding China's
economy. Public pronouncements of high officials have indicated that the current leadership has adopted a more flexible attitude toward foreign trade,
recognizing that the acquisition of foreign technology and equipment is necessary for rapid economic growth. In 1977, China's overall foreign trade
increased a record 12 percent. Exports exceeded imports in both 1976 and 1977, giving China a trade surplus of over $1 billion in 1977 alone. Given the Chinese government's preference for paying cash for imports and a professed unwillingness to accept Western credits, this trade surplus provides
the monetary resources to expand imports of foreign technology and equipment. This may have a positive impact on the U.S. balance of trade with China. In
recent years the Chinese have preferred to import from Japan and Western




















26-526 0 78 4










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Europe, stating that this is because of their dissatisfaction with U.S. slowness in moving toward normalization of relations. However the United States has a competitive edge over other Western industrialized countries in
petroleum technology and certain machine tools which China n2eds to fulfill its development plans.


U.S. exports

U.S. exports to the People's Republic of China in 1977 increased $35.9
million to $171.3 million (table 9). Exports of crude materials and oil and
fats showed the greatest percentage increase, while exports of manufactured goods classified by chief material fell to their lowest level since 1973.
Exports of machinery and transport equipment declined for the third straight .'Year and exports of food and live animals remained at minimal levels.

In spite of a drought-plagued Chinese harvest, U.S. exports of food and live animals were only $27,000. These exports consisted wholly of livestock
feed and tropical fish. Widespread drought seriously damaged China's winter wheat and early rice crops, forcing the Chinese to contract for approximately
12 million metric tons of wheat from Australia, Canada, and Argentina. The United States did not receive any grain orders in 1977.

Exports of crude materials rose to $52.3 million, a fourfold increase over 1976. The principal products in this group were polyester staple, cotton,
soybeans, and bleached sulfite softwood pulp. The soybeans are only a small part of a 390,000-ton purchase which China announced in March 1977. Although
a U.S. exporter made the sale, only 75,156 metric tons are actually to be sourced in the United States; Brazil is expected to supply most of the remainder.

Exports of manufactured products declined 40 percent to $67.3 million in
1977. 1/ The largest decrease was registered in manufactured goods classified
by chief material. Vastly reduced exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys accounted for most of the decrease; $5.3 million in 1977 compared with $25.6 million in 1976. The Chinese stockpiled aluminum in 1976 when world aluminum prices were depressed. In 1977, world aluminum prices began climbing and Chinese imports of this product from all sources fell.

Exports of machinery and transport equipment declined both absolutely and
as a percentage of total U.S. exports to China. The principal item was special-purpose nonmilitary vehicles, new, not elsewhere classified. The
Chinese purchased 58 of these vehicles for a total of $28.8 million. Other items in this group were internal combustion engines, machine tools, and oildrilling machinery. The machine tools which China has purchased from the United States have generally been large and fairly sophisticated. The Chinese are self-sufficient in the production of general purpose machine tools and have only recently begun to develop numerically-controlled machine tools. China has also shown considerable interest in importing U.S. petroleum

I/ Schedule B group nos. 6; 7, and 8.







22



technology and petro-chemical feedstocks technology. An eight-man petroleum delegation representing several U.S. firms went to Peking in November to conduct seminars on oil-well drilling, production, and transportation.


U.S. imports

U.S. imports from the People's Republic of China rose slightly from $195 million in 1976 to $197 million in 1977 (table 9). The distribution of the value of imports within the various product categories was roughly comparable between the two years. The shares of food and live animals and inedible crude materials rose slightly, but offset a 5-percentage-point decline in the share
of manufactured goods-. Within the manufactured goods category, a more .significant shift occurred as imports of goods classified by chief materials fell by 25 percent while imports of miscellaneous manufactured articles rose by 18 percent.

Imports of food and live animals increased from $23.5 million in 1976 to $25.5 million in 1977. The main items in this group were tea, cashew nuts, and cassia (a variety of cinnamon). Imports of tea from China doubled in 1977, paralleling the situation in total U.S. tea imports. Although the price of tea rose in 1977, the price of coffee increased even more sharply, causing demand for tea to increase. China supplied approximately one-tenth of total U.S. imports of cashew nuts and about one-third of total imports of cassia. Tea and cassia enter free of duty; cashew nuts from China are dutiable at slightly higher rates than are imports from other sources enjoying most-favored-nation (MFN) duty treatment.

Imports of crude materials rose from $37.6 million in 1976 to $44.0 million in 1977. The principal products in this group were feathers not meeting Federal standards ($12.4 million), bristles ($8.7 million), and downs not meeting Federal standards ($6.5 million). China accounted for 43.5
percent of total U.S. imports of these feathers, 88.4 percent of imports of bristles, and 17.4 percent of imports of downs. Although not meeting Federal specifications for cleanliness, Chinese feathers and downs are considered to be of higher-than-average quality. They are used primarily as insulation for sleeping bags and parkas. Other crude material imports from China included tungsten ore, cashmere goat hair, and raw silk. Imports of silk from China fell 39 percent, compared with a decrease in total U.S. silk imports of 46 percent. Offsetting this decline, U.S. imports of tungsten ore from China rose 89 percent, paralleling an increase in total U.S. tungsten ore imports of 97 percent. The increased value of tungsten imports can be attributed to a 45 percent rise in unit value and to the U.S. economic recovery. Since there is currently a large amount of tungsten in the production pipeline, it is expected that total imports in 1978 will level off or may even begin to decline. Feathers, downs, and silk enter free of duty; specific duties which discriminate against imports from China are assessed on the other products.

Imports of chemicals rose modestly in 1977 to $21.4 million. Almost half of these consisted of fireworks. China is the principal source of imports of fireworks and enjoys equal tariff treatment with other countries for this product.

Imports of semimanufactured goods l/ declined in 1977, while imports of
miscellaneous manufactured products rose. Currently, most of the manufactured

l/ Schedule A group No. 6.







23



products which China exports are highly labor-intensive. Products imported by
the United States in 1977 included textiles, clothing, bags and baskets of bamboo, unwrought, tin, and antiques. The U.S. International Trade Commission
is presently investigating whether market disruption exists as a result of increased imports of Chinese cotton work gloves. 1/ There is no difference
between column 1 and column 2 tariffs on unwrought tin, antiques, or cotton work gloves; however, tariff discrimination is significant on textile and clothing items.



Poland

U.S. exports to Poland dropped 30 percent from their record high of $621 million in 1976 to $437 million in 1977. With imports rising only 4 percent, total trade turnover decreased 18 percent from $935 million in 1976 to $763 million in 1977. As a result, the Polish trade deficit with the United States of $110 million was the smallest deficit since 1972.

This reduced trade deficit with the United States is one manifestation of Poland's progress in efforts to control its overall trade deficit with the West. Poland's 1976-80 5-year plan envisions balanced trade with the West by 1980. in 1977, Polish exports to the West increased 14 percent while imports
declined 5 percent, cutting the visible Polish deficit with the West by one-third. Exports are targeted to increase another 15 percent in 1978.
Imports on the other hand, will continue to be limited by a government policy stating that export quotas must be filled before ministries or foreign trade firms can sign import contracts. Nevertheless, the Poles have expressed interest in concluding industrial cooperation agreements with U.S. firms in the following sectors: coal, packaging materials, pharmaceuticals shipbuilding, and marine technology.

The seventh session of the Joint American-Polish Trade Commission met in Warsaw in late November. This session focused on problems in business facilitation and industrial cooperation, trade relations, cooperation in agriculture, U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty laws, U.S. export control regulations, and the multilateral tariff negotiations. In addition four commercial agreements were proposed covering economic and industrial
cooperation, tourism, economic and commercial information, and the participation of small-and medium-sized firms in trade. These agreements will be negotiated in 1978.


U.S. exports

The value of U.S. exports to Poland fell from $621 million in 1976 to $437 million in 1977 (table 10). The value of exports of food and live animals

l/ This investigation, TA-406-1, was instituted on December 28, 1977. on
March 7, 1978 the Commission determined by a 4-2 vote that imports of cotton work gloves from the People's Republic of China were not causing market disruption in the United States.










24







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decreased by 41 percent, but still accounted for more than half of total U.S.
exports to Poland. Exports of food and live animals have represented more than 50 percent of total exports to Poland for the last three years, as Poland has had to supplement domestic production. The next largest category, machinery and transport equipment, accounted for only 20 percent of total U.S. exports to Poland in 1977. Exports in this category were down slightly as they declined from $89.3 million in 1976 to $85.5 million in 1977. only two of the major categories of exports registered increases in 1977. Exports of crude materials increased from $47.1 million in 1976 to $50.4 million in 1977,
and exports of beverages and tobacco increased from $6.5 million to $11.1 million.

The value of U.S. exports to Poland fell by 30 percent. The reduced value of U.S. shipments of food and live animals accounted for 97 percent of this decrease. Exports of yellow corn, wheat, and soybean oil-cake and meal, which together accounted for over half of total U.S. eXDorts to Poland in both 1976 and 1977, decreased from $350 million to $225 million. Lower unit values of corn and wheat accounted for a substantial portion of the decreased value of
exports. The unit value of corn shipped to Poland decreased from $117.26 per metric ton in 1976 to $95.06 per metric ton in 1977, while the unit value of wheat decreased from $146.12 per metric ton in 1976 to $92.24 per metric ton in 1977. Thus, on a quantity basis, exports of corn and wheat decreased only 14.0 and 4.5 percent, respectively.

In spite of the decreased value of corn, wheat, and soybean oil-cake and meal shipments, food and live animals still accounted for 58 percent of total U.S. exports to Poland. Other important U.S. exports in this category included grain sorghums, fresh lemons, linseed oil-cake and meal, lard and other pig fat, corn by-products, and almonds.

Heavy rains and flooding in the summer of 1977 caused Poland to have its fourth consecutive bad harvest. Agricultural output was actually 3.5 percent
lower in 1977 than in 1976. These conditions made necessary a reevaluation of the official government policy of achieving self-sufficiency in the agricultural sector. Adequate supplies of grain are necessary to ensure the
success of Poland's livestock development program, and meat exports are Poland's most important source of hard-currency foreign exchange. Thus, it is
imperative that Poland have a dependable supply of feedgrain so as not to lose Western markets to other Eastern European producers who have been increasing
their meat sales to the West. This situation, in combination with growing domestic demand for meat, has forced Poland to import large quantities of
grain for the past four years. These developments were not foreseen in the economic plan. Even if Poland's harvests improve, large grain imports will be
necessary to rebuild livestock herds depleted during the grain shortages and to increase inventories. Given this situation, the Poles are taking active steps to incorporate grain imports into future planning, rather than planning on harvest levels that do not materialize.

Poland currently has an agreement with the United States to purchase 2.5 million metric tons of grain annually through 1980. However, the Poles have
recently expressed interest in negotiating a new grain accord with the United States for the purchase of a minimum of 5-6 million metric tons of grain annually through the mid-1980's, provided that they can obtain longer-term







26



credits than are currently available through the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). The granting of longer-term credits will require Congressional legislation.

Poland received $174 million in CCC credits for FY 1977, mainly for the
purchase of grains. For FY 1978, Poland has been granted $500 million in CCC credits, of which $200 million were approved during President Carter's December visit to Warsaw. All CCC credit is in the form of three-year loans repayable at 9 percent interest in three equal installments. Currently, the line of credit to Poland provides $219 million for feedgrains (mainly corn),
$70 million for wheat, $123 million for soybean meal, $31 million for soybeans, $24 million for tallow, $15 million for cotton, $10 million for
vegetable oils, $5.8 million for edible soy protein, $5.5 million for cottonseed meal, $4.5 million for linseed meal, and $4.3 million for tobacco.
The amount in excess of $500 million results from some carry-over of FY 1977 funds.

The next largest export category, after agricultural products, was
machinery and transport equipment which accounted for 20 percent of total U.S. exports to Poland. Demand for U.S. transport and mechanized handling equipment remained strong in 1977 as the increasing volume of goods produced by Poland's industrial sector placed added strain on transport and handling facilities. However, the value of U.S. exports in this category did decrease slightly to $85.5 million in 1977 from $89.3 million in 1976. Products in this group included parts and accessories for tracklaying tractors,
glassworking machinery, metalworking machinery, machine tools, food processing machinery, lifting and loading machinery, and digital electronic computers.

U.S. exports of crude materials rose 7 percent in 1977 to $50.4 million. The principal products in this category were Florida phospliate hard rock and
land pebble ($21.2 million), and whole cattle hides ($9.1 million) which together accounted for 60 percent of the total value of these exports. Other important items included cotton, sheep and lamb skins, peanuts, bleached sulfate woodpulp, and flaxseed.


U.S. imports

The value of U.S. imports from Poland increased from $314 million in 1976 to $327 million in 1977 or by 4 percent (table 10). Imports of food and live
animals have historically dominated U.S. imports from Poland and their share in 1977 was approximately 40 percent. The value of imports in this category decreased from $145 million in 1976 to $127 million in 1977 or by 13 percent. The next largest import categories in 1977 were miscellaneous manufactured
articles and manufactured goods classified by chief material. The values of U.S. imports from Poland in these two groups in 1977 were $64.7 million and $61.7 million, respectively. The share of total imports of each group was approximately 20 percent. The next two categories in order of value of imports represented relatively small shares of total imports. However, imports in these groups, machinery and transport equipment and mineral fuels
and lubricants, were the only imports of relative significance which increased substantially in 1977. Imports of machinery and transport equipment increased by 55 percent, while imports of mineral fuels and lubricants more than doubled.







27



Nearly 39 percent of U.S. imports from Poland consisted of food and live animals. Imports of canned hams weighing over 3 pounds accounted for 81 percent of total imports in this category. However, the $103 million of
canned ham imports represents a decline from the record of $116 million imported in 1976. This decline reflects Poland's continuing grain crisis which has kept swine herds from being regenerated to planned levels. This has put a squeeze on the amount of meat available for export, as well as for domestic consumption. other products imported in this group included frozen cod blocks, canned pork, frozen strawberries, frozen turbot, and frozen pollock blocks.

The next largest group of U.S. imports was miscellaneous manufactured
articles. The value of merchandise entered under this category in 1977 was $64.7 million, an increase of $6.2 million over the 1976 level. Textile products, footwear, and furniture and parts of bentwood were the principal items in this group. Imports of certain textile products increased substantially in 1977. The tabulation below shows the three principal categories, grouped by SITC number:


SITC :Percent increase
number: Description 1977 value 1977/1976
($1,000)
84111 Men's and boys' outer garments, not
knitted or crocheted ---------------- : $19,621 77
84143 Under garments, knitted or crocheted, :
not elastic nor rubberized ---------- : 6,792 41
84144 outer garments, knitted or crocheted, :
not elastic nor rubberized ---------- : 4,354 154

Source: Compiled from official statistics of the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of East-West Trade.


Imports of footwear declined to $13.9 million in 1977 from nearly $20 million in 1976. Imports of furniture and parts of bentwood also decreased,
falling fom $5.7 million in 1976 to $5.4 million in 1977.

Imports of manufactured goods classified by chief material increased 22 percent to $61.7 million in 1977. The most important products in this category were plates and sheets of iron or steel. The value of these imports increased 86 percent in 1977, rising to $17.0 million from $9.1 million in 1976. l/ The principal item in this group, and the second largest item
import 7d from Poland, was certain steel plates valued at $16.4 million in

I/ Plates and sheets of iron or steel are classified under SITC number
67400. Practically all of this SITC classification is contained in TSUSA item 608.8415. In 1977, TSUSA item 608.8415 accounted for 97 percent of this SITC classification. Prior to Jan. 1, 1977, this TSUSA item was classified as number 608.8420. The former classification was replaced by two less comprehensive numbers 608.8410 and 608.8415. TSUSA item 608.8420 accounted for 97 percent of the SITC classification in 1976. The SITC classification was used to ensure comparability.



















26-526 0 78 5







28



1977. l/ Howevert Poland's share of total U.S. imports of this item was only
4.8 percent by value and 6.4 percent by quantity. In world trade Poland is actually a net importer of steel, and sustained a trade deficit in steel alone of over $1 billion in 1975. The Poles hope to lower their dependence on imported steel to an annual trade deficit of $670 million by 1980. To this end, they invested approximately $2.4 billion in the steel industry during the 5-year period 1971-1975. The impact of these investments has only begun to be felt since the first new steel plant came on stream late in 1976.

Mineral fuels, principally gasoline and coal, accounted for another 6 percent of U.S. imports from Poland. Poland's share of total U.S. gasoline imports was 2.7 percent on a value basis at a unit value of $15.42 per barrel (bbl.) compared with $16.02 per bbl. for total U.S. imports. No imports of gasoline from Poland have previously been reported, and the Polish market share of total U.S. gasoline consumption is negligible. Imports of coal from Poland rose from $7.5 million in 1976 to $8.9 million in 1977, an increase of 18 percent. 2/ The Poles have invested nearly $4 billion in their coal industry in the past 10 years and intend to expand the industry further. Coal is not only an important energy source in Poland's domestic economy, but it has also provided substantial hard-currency export earnings. Poland is the
fourth largest coal producer after the United States, the U.S.S.R., and China, and the second largest coal exporter after the United States. Polish technology in the coal industry is highly developed and Poland and the United States have a governmental level accord to exchange infor-mation and experience in coal gasification and liquefaction.



Yugoslavia

A sharp expansion in the value of U.S. exports to Yugoslavia and a decline in imports in 1977 reversed the large and untypical trade deficit that had
characterized U.S.-Yugoslav trade in 1976. The value of U.S. exports to Yugoslavia expanded to 355 million in 1977, a 20 percent increase over the previous year's level of $295 million (table 11). At the same time, U.S. imports fell by $46.4 million to nearly $337 million, producing a modest U.S. trade surplus with Yugoslavia for 1977 of $18.7 million.

In 1976, soaring U.S. imports from Yugoslavia and declining U.S. exports had combined to create the first U.S. trade deficit with that country in six years. The U.S. recovery from the recession revived domestic markets for the
industrial raw materials and consumer goods that form the bulk of Yugoslav exports to the United States. U.S. exports, on the other handy which had
grown steadily in the period 1972-19759 faltered in 1976 in the face of stringent Yugoslav import restrictions. The most inhibiting of these import barriers were lifted in late 1976.

The abrupt turnabout in U.S.-Yugoslavia trade in 1977 was due principally to sharp changes in economic policies and growth rates in Yugoslavia.

I/ This item is classified under TSUSA 608.8415, steel plates, not alloyq not in coils, not pickled or cold rolled.
2/ Includes TSUSA 521.3120, bituminous coal and TSUSA 521.3180, coal) nes, including lignite, except peat.










29





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30



Economic performance in most sectors of the Yugoslav economy in 1977 met or surpassed planned goals. The nearly 9 percent growth in industrial output and 3.3 percent agricultural growth were fueled by consumer and investment spending levels that greatly exceeded 1976 levels. This successful domestic economic performance in 1977 followed disappointing developments in 1975 and 1976.

In late 1975, in order to slow inflation and to reduce the alarming
balance of payments deficit) the government imposed trade controls and cut back credit and investment outlays. These measures resulted in an unsatisfactory level of economic growth in 1976 of less than 4 percent, but also resulted in a desired lower inflation rate and an improved trade balance. Removal of the import controls, as well as the application of
stimulative fiscal and monetary measures through mid-1977, greatly aided the renewed expansion of'industrial and agricultural output that resulted in an improved 1977 growth rate of over 6 percent. But these measures also encouraged increased imports and stimulated domestic demand for output that
otherwise might have been available for export. Thus, in 1977, while total Yugoslav exports increased only 8 percent over the level of 1976) the value of imports increased about 30 percent, causing a resurgence of the overall trade deficit to a record $4.4 billion. "Invisible exports" including remittances
from workers living abroad, foreign tourism, and earnings by Yugoslav consulting and construction firms operating overseas, offset this deficit to some extent. However, the overall Yugoslav balance of payments was nearly $1.6 billion in deficit in 1977, compared to a slight surplus in 1976.

To date, no new import restrictions of the type imposed in 1975 have been announced. However, national plans are that 1978 imports be held to the 1977
level, while exports are slated for growth of about 6 percent over the previous year. Planned domestic growth rates in industry and in agriculture
for 1978 are high, about equal to those reached in 1977, and it may be difficult to meet these goals while restraining imports of necessary plant and
equipment. Anti-inflationary measures taken to improve export competitiveness could also have a negative impact on the rate of domestic economic growth.


U.S. exports

The value of U.S. exports to Yugoslavia increased 20 percent in 1977, from $295 million in 1976 to $355 million in 1977. This expansion of exports was not evenly distributed among all product categories, but was centered in exports of machinery and crude materials (table 11). The recovery was led by
sales of machinery and transport equipment which increased by $37.6 million over 1976, nearly equaling the peak of $214 million reached in 1975. A
completely new item in this category in 1977 was that of nuclear reactor parts for the nuclear power plant at Krsko. Scheduled to be in operation by the end of 1979, it is being built by Westinghouse, using both U.S. and Yugoslav materials. Exports from the United States for the plant totaled nearly $20
million in 1977. Additional nuclear plants are planned, and if U.S. firms continue to receive the construction contracts, these exports will become a
major component of U.S.-Yugoslav trade. other major U.S. machinery exports that increased in 1977 were large tractors, power generators, digital computers, aircraft, and parts for all of these goods.







31



The value of U.S. exports of inedible crude materials increased more than threefold in 1977, from only $15.4 million in 1976 to $48.1 million. Soybean exports of $23.5 million accounted for most of the increase; the last U.S. soybean exports to Yugoslavia were in 1975 and totaled only $313,000. Sales of soybean oil-cake and meal declined slightly in 1977, but there is great potential for soybean and soy product exports. The Yugoslav 1976-1980 5-year plan calls for increased livestock production, meat consumption, and meat exports, and soy products are a major ingredient in high quality animal feed.
Exports of whole cattle hides also expanded sharply from $5.1 million in 1976 to $10.9 million in 1977. Together with soybeans they accounted for 90 percent of the increased value of U.S. exports of crude materials.


U.S. imports

The value of U.S. imports from Yugoslavia declined from $383 million in
1976 to $337 million in 1977. This decrease was almost entirely the result of a sharp reduction in imports of unwrought nonferrous metals. Yugoslav exports in this category declined overall in 1977, but the fall in the U.S. share was
particularly acute. U.S. imports by volume of unwrought copper from Yugoslavia declined over 60 percent between 1976 and 1977, zinc imports were down 90 percent and lead imports fell nearly 50 percent. Imports of unwrought aluminum dropped from 26 million pounds in 1976 to none at all in 1977. In
this same period, total U.S. world imports of copper, lead and aluminum actually increased and zinc imports fell only about 20 percent.

There are several possible explanations for the decline in U.S. imports of
copper and copper products from Yugoslavia. Yugoslav trade sources indicated that increased competitiveness in the U.S. market and the removal of copper and copper products from the list of GSP-eligible products from Yugoslavia contributed heavily to the decline. But Yugoslavia has one of the highest rates of price inflation in Europe, and many Yugoslav products are becoming uncompetitive even in European markets. Increased domestic consumption of these industrial raw materials due to healthy growth in the Yugoslav industrial sector also cut into stocks available for export in 1977. It is unlikely that the withdrawal of GSP duty-free treatment in the last half of 1977 could have accounted for such an overall massive decline, but may have contributed to it. The ad valorem equivalent of the specific duty on
unwrought copper imports from MFN countries is less than 1.4 percent.

U.S. imports of food products, beverages, and tobacco increased slightly
from a combined value of $693 million in 1976 to $727 million in 1977. Canned hams and oriental leaf tobacco accounted for over 90 percent of the value of imports from Yugoslavia of these products. Imports of miscellaneous manufactured articles rose more dramatically) maintaining their decade-long
growth pattern despite the lackluster performance of other import categories in 1977. Major imports in this group include wood furniture, leather
footwear, textile clothing, toys, and sporting goods. The increased value of imports of these items over 1976 totaled approximately $17 million and accounted for nearly 90 percent of the increase in imports of miscellaneous manufactures in 1977.

Relatively new products to become major U.S. import items from Yugoslavia are down and feathers not meeting Federal standards. Imports of these items







32



rose from less than $1.0 million in 1975 to $3.8 million in 1976, reaching $10.4 million in 1977. These imports accounted for virtually the entire increase in value in 1977 of crude, inedible materials, excluding fuels imported from Yugoslavia.



Romania

Total trade between the United S tates and Romania reached a record high of $490 million in 1977, exceeding the previous record of $449 million attained in 1976 (table 12). This expansion was based primarily on a 15.4 percent increase in the value of U.S. imports; exports to Romania rose only 4.2 percent over 1976. Although total trade between the United States and Romania ..did not reach the $500 million mark predicted for 1977, both countries remain committed to expand and diversify their trade with each other. It is still hoped that total two-way trade will reach $1 billion by 1980.

Relations between the United States and Romania have developed and deepened since Romania began pursuing a more independent foreign policy vis-a-vis the U.S.S.R. in the early 1960's. Prospects for an acceleration in the growth of U.S.-Romanian trade improved with the decision by the U.S.
Congress in mid-1977 to continue Presidential authority granting most-favored-nation (,1FN) tariff treatment to U.S. imports from Romania. Granted I4fN status in August 1975, Romania is the only Communist country thus far to have received MFN treatment under the Trade Act of 1974. Section 402 of the Act prohibits the granting of NFN treatment, government suppor ted export credits or investment guarantees, or the negotiation of a commercial
agreement with any Communist country if that country does not allow its citizens the freedom to emigrate. However, section 402 also per-mits the
President to waive this prohibition for limited periods of time if he determines that doing so will promote freedom of emigration. On June 2, 1977,
the President asked Congress to renew for twelve months the authority to waive the freedom of emigration requirements of the Trade Act in the case of Romnania. Since no Congressional action was taken by August 31, 1977, the waiver authority was automatically extended until July 3, 1978.

Several meetings between businessmen and government officials from the United States and Romania occurred in 1977. The Romanian-U.S. Economic
Council, a private group dedicated to the expansion of trade between the two countries, held its fourth session in New York in July 1977. Over 70 senior U.S. business executives and representatives and 21 Romanian foreign trade and industrial leaders attended the session. Among the topics discussed were
business facilitation, contract fulfillment, market access, and barriers to trade. The participants also explored prospects for increased trade and
cooperation in the machine building, electronics, chemical, petrochemical, and agricultural sectors.

The Joint Amer ican-Romanian Economic Commission is an official committee founded in 1973 to periodically review economic and commercial relations between the two countries. It is chaired jointly by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Juanita Kreps and Romanian M4inister of Foreign Trade Ion Patan. In early August, the U.S. vice-chairman of the Commission was received by










33





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34



Romanian President Nicolae Ceausescu in Bucharest. The two discussed the need to insure durable and long-term prospects for carrying out and developing trade and economic cooperation between their respective countries. These
discussions were continued later in the month when Foreign Minister Patan, who is also Deputy Prime Minister of Romania, conferred with U.S. Department of
State representatives on problems concerning the development of economic relations and commercial exchanges between the United States and Romania. In
November, the Fourth Session of the Joint Commnission met in Washington with both chairmen in attendance. The Romanians proposed a number of projects in whiich they are seeking participation and cooperation by U.S. firms. The list of projects includes: gearboxes for heavy road equipment; cooperation in the
production of installations in the petrochemical, chemical, metallurgical, and mining industries; microinotors, servomotors, and tachogenerators;
piezo-cercimic filters for the electronics industry; connectors and switches for electronic equipment; nickel-cadmium storage batteries; integrated circuits, including assembly and testing operations (these would require specific U.S. export license approval); production of machines and equipment
for the manufacture of synthetic fibers and yarns; heavy off-road dump vehicles; and a U.S.-based joint venture for marketing Romanian equipment and tools.

The ability of Romania to meet its domestic and foreign economic goals was seriously threatened by a major earthquake which struck on March 4, 1977. In
spite of the devastating impact of the earthquake, the Romanian economy made respectable progress during 1977. Industrial output rose 11.6 percent, exceeding the planned target of 10.5 percent. Total agricultural output increased 9.0 percent even though the grain harvest of 18 million tons was two million tons short of the 1976 harvest. This increase in agricultural production exceeded the 1976-80 5-year plan target of 4.1-7.0 percent average annual growth. Labor productivity, with 8.3 percent growth, fell short of the
9.2 percent growth target for 1977.


U.S. exports

U.S. exports to Romania rose more modestly than imports in 1977, from $249 million in 1976 to $259 million. Large increases in the value of mineral fuel
exports, principally coal, and of machinery and transport equipment, compensated for a rather sharp decline in the value of U.S. grain and soybean oil-cake exports (table 12). Exports of soybeans remained high, however, for the second year in a row.

U.S. exports of agricultural products amounted to $118 million in 1977 or nearly 46 percent of total U.S. exports to Romania. 1/ The principal products in this group were soybeans ($38.6 million), cattle hides ($26.7 million), wheat ($16.0 million), corn ($15.8 million), and soybean oil-cake and meal ($9.4 million). Since 1970, Romania has purchased $161 million worth of U.S. agricultural products through the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC).

1/ in addition to Schedule 13 groups 0 and 1, "food and live animals" and
"beverages and tobacco," agricultural products include such items as soybeans, cattle hides, cotton, and bull semen, which are classified under Sched. B
group 2, as "crude materials," and fatty acids, which are classified under group 4, "oil and fats."







35



Although no credit lines were authorized in FY 1977, slightly over $1 million of CCC credits were disbursed to Romania for the purchase of soybean meal. This money came from unused lines of credit established in FY 1976. On February 22, 1978, the CCC established a $23 million line of credit for Romania for the purchase of soybeans during FY 1978.

U.S. exports of coal to Romania decreased from $17.5 million in 1975 to $10.7 million in 1976, and then increased to $53.6 million in 1977. 1/
The Romanian press has emphasized that country's growing need for coke and metallurgical coal as the production of steel, pig iron, and rolled goods
C>
increases. Romanian steel output is targeted to rise from approximately 11.6 million tons in 1977 to over 18 million tons by 1980, implying a growing demand for coal.

In June 1977, a division of Occidental Petroleum Corporation and a
Romanian FTO signed the first U.S.-Romanian coal agreement. The agreement
provides for the advance payment of $53 million over two years for an estimated 14 million tons of coal. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 1980 and could stretch for a period of 35 years. Under the terms of the agreement, the Romanians will buy 400,000 tons of coal annually and will have an option to buy another 13.3 million tons at prevailing market prices. The company expects that approximately 500 U.S. jobs will be generated by the Romanian contract.

U.S. exports of manufactured goods amounted to $56.0 million in 1977, up from $46.5 million in 1976. Principal products in this group were
electrolytic tin plate, parts and accessories of motor vehicles, parts for industrial instruments, molding machines, and machine tools.


U.S. imports

U.S. imports from Romania posted a healthy increase in 1977, rising from $200 million in 1976 to $231 million. This was the result cf increased
imports of Romanian manufactured goods, semimanufactures, and machinery and transport equipment (table 12). The composition of U.S. imports from Romania has changed significantly since 1970. The tabulation below shows the declining importance of mineral fuels as a percent of total U.S. imports, and
the considerable rise in the share of imports of manufactured items.


:Percent of total U.S. imports from Romania Year Mineral fuels Manufactured items l/

1970 ---------------- : 41 38
1974 ---------------- : 61 26
1975 ---------------- : 63 24
1976 ---------------- : 41 44
1977 ---------------- : 32 55

l/ Schedule A group nos. 6, 7, and 8.

1/ See footnote) table A-10.







36



The past few years have seen a massive upsurge in U.S. imports of clothing and footwear from Romania. Imports of these two commodities rose from $12.5 million in 1975 to $45.0 million in 1976, and to $63.4 million in 1977. Although these two products are not eligible for duty-free preferences, there is substantial column 2 tariff discrimination so that imports from Romania gained a distinct advantage over their previous situation after the granting of M FN status in 1975.

With respect to U.S. imports of welt work footwear from Romania, the
Commission conducted an antidumping investigation in 1975. 1/ In a previous East-West Trade Report, the following passage appeared:

Romanian welt work shoes are marketed primarily in large
discount houses and retail chain stores. While some
domestically-made work shoes are produced for this market, most U.S. producers sell directly to independent retailers
and consumers or carry on a mail order business. Hence,
the bulk of domestically produced work shoes do not
compete directly with the Romanian shoes. 2/

The conclusion of the final sentence above is not consistent with the Commission's decision in the 1975 investigation, where Romanian welt work
footwear was found to be like and directly competitive with the domestic product, even though the Romanian footwear does reach the U.S. consumer
through somewhat different outlets than those used primarily by domestic producers. There has been a large increase (of approximately 50 percent) in imports of welt work footwear in 1977. 3/

Under the terms of the Multifiber Arrangement signed in Geneva on December
20, 1973, the United States is permitted to limit imports of textile products from suppliers and to prevent further disruption of the U.S. market. Parts of
this arrangement, relating to trade in wool and man-made fiber textiles, excluding yarn, were renegotiated in mid-1977 and limits on these articles were set through December 31, 1981. Early in 1978, Romania agreed to limit its exports of cotton textiles to the United States through 1982 following a further round of bilateral negotiations relating to the Multifiber Arrangement.

In January 1976, Romania became eligible for preferential tariff treatment under the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). Imports from Romania of commodities eligible for GSP amounted to $9 million in 1975 and $20 million in 1976. During these two years, the principal items imported under this category were PVC resins, wooden furniture, and machine tools. In 1977, $28.8 million worth of imports from Romania were eligible to receive GSP. However,

1/ Investigation AA1921-144, Welt Work Footwear from Romania.
2/ Eleventh Report to the Congress and the East-West Foreign Trade Board on Trade between the United States and the Nonmarket Economy
Countries, USITC Pub. 836, Sept. 1977., p. 21.
3/ Annual data available in this report, appendix table A-9, indicate that imports of leather welt work footwear from Romania increased from $2,489,206 in 1976 to $3,715,743 in 1977.







37



because of additional restrictive conditions attached to GSP treatment, only
$25.2 million worth of commodities actually received the tariff preferences. A large portion of these commodities were manufactured items. The main beneficiary items were: wooden furniture ($6.6 million), machine tools ($2.9 million), pecorino cheese ($1.6 million), office machines ($1.5 million),
hardboard, not face-finished ($1.5 million), rubber or plastic articles I/ ($1.3 million), aluminum bars plates sheets, and strips ($1.2 million-T,
synthetic rubber ($1 million), solid-state radio receivers ($0.8 million), cheese from sheep's milk ($0.7 million), unsweetened cocoa and cocoa-cake
($0.7 million), wool noils, not advanced ($0.6 million), synthetic vitamins ($0.4 million), glass strips ($0.3 million), glass Christmas ornaments ($0.3
million), baskets and bags of willow ($0.3 million), leather wearing apparel ($0.3 million), and PVC resins ($0.1 million).

Although the share of mineral fuels in total U.S. imports from Romania has been falling since 1975, the two largest single import products in 1977 were
certain heavy fuel oils (oils having a Saybolt Universal viscosity at 100 F. of more than 125 seconds) and gasoline. Imports of these two items were valued at $71.5 million in 1977, or 31 percent of total U.S. imports from Romania.

Imports of food, beverages, and tobacco accounted for 8.4 percent of total U.S. imports from Romania in 1977. In contrast with the total for all
nonmarket economy countries where imports of these commodities accounted for an average 20.2 percent of total imports, this is a relatively small share (table 2). Canned hams, canned pork products, canned bacon, and pork sausage accounted for 76 percent of the foodg beverage, and tobacco imports.



Czechoslovakia

Total trade between the United States and Czechoslovakia dropped
precipitously from $182 million in 1976 to $110 million in 1977. Most of the decline can be attributed to a steep drop in U.S. exports of grain and animal feeds; a good Czech harvest substantially reduced demand for U.S. agricultural products. In contrast, U.S. exports to Czechoslovakia had a banner year in
1976 as a result of that year's disastrous crops which forced the importation of large quantities of agricultural products, including U.S. grains. U.S. imports from Czechoslovakia in 1977 rose modestly, a 4.6 percent increase over the 1976 total of $34.8 million, reversing the downward trend which had
persisted since 1974, when imports were a record $43.9 million (table 13).

Czechoslovakia's capacity to produce and market the manufactured goods that make up the bulk of that country's export trade has been negatively affected in recent years by problems in the industrial sector. The 1976-80
annual average growth rate target for industrial output of 5.9 percent is the lowest of all CEMA countries. 2/ Czechoslovakia must cope with an aging
industrial plant, a low labor productivity growth rate, and a shrinking growth in the labor force. Western demand for manufactured products from Czechoslovakia has been reduced because of the world recession and slow

I/ Including some shoe components.
f/-The Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CEMA) includes the U.S.S.R., Poland, Hungaryq East Germanyq Bulgaria, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Mongolia, and Cuba.










38





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recovery, and because the~e goods have become less competitive in world markets in terms of quality, design, delivery time, marketing strategy, and the availability of spare parts. Czechoslovak export prices have also risen because of that country's relatively heavy dependence on imports of raw materials, including fuels and capital goods; all of which have become increasingly expensive.

In order to upgrade and expand its industrial base, Czechoslovakia needs
to import technologically advanced capital goods from tr.e industrial West that will help solve some of the above mentioned problems. The capacity to do so, however, depends to a large extent on earning hard currency through exports of manufactures and the absence of bad harvests that divert scarce hard-currency reserves to emergency grain purchases. Another alternative is to borrow, but Czechoslovakia is generally unwilling to borrow heavily from Western financial institutions and governments. Because of this apparent dilemma, the Czechoslovak government must closely control its hard currency expenditures. Imports of Western manufactured goods are permitted on": when comparable items are unavailable domestically or from sources in other CE>.A countries. The same policy applies to technology transfers. Czechoslovak spokesmen have stated that the United States could become a major supplier of technology to their country, but for the limited availability of hard currency. U.S. restrictions on technology exports have also inhibited development of this trade.


U.S. exports

Czechoslovakia enjoyed a record grain harvest of 10.4 million metric tone in 1977, and imports of grain dropped to an estimated 0.5-0.7 million tons, compared with 2.7 million tons in 1976. The Soviet Union and Hungary, traditional suppliers to the Czechoslovak market, were the source for most of the necessary imports in 1977. As a result, U.S. exports of food and live animals, principally grains and animal feeds, decreased substantially. Total U.S. exports to Czechoslovakia fell approximately 50 percent from $147.5 million in 1976 to $74.0 million in 1977. Exports of soybean oil-cake and meal decreased from $27.3 million in 1976 to $17.1 million in 1977, -while exports of corn fell from $55.3 million in 1976 to $8.8 million in 1977. There were no exports of wheat in 1977 compared with $14.3 million in 1976. Since the Czech 5-year plan calls for self-sufficiency in grain production by 1980, it is possible that U.S. exports will continue to decline in future years. However, given unpredictable weather conditions, the United States will likely continue to supply grain to this country in years when local production and other imports are insufficient.

Exports of crude materials to Czechoslovakia increased 25 percent in 1977, or to nearly $25 million. The major items exported in this category were cattle hides, sunflower seed, muskrat furskins, hardwood pulp sulfate, and rough walnut logs. Manufactured exports 1/ declined from a total of $19.3 million in 1976 to $15.6 million in 1977. There were no single "big-ticket" export sales; instead, exports were scattered across a broad range of products. The most important item in the group was "parts and

1/ Schedule B group nos. 6, 7, and 8.












accessories for electronic computers" with exports valued at less than $1 million. Other computer equipment, unworked glass, cranes, conveyors, instruments for physical or chemical analysis, and pencil slats were representative of the types of products exported.

Declining Czech demand for U.S. ma 'nufactures in 1977 may have resulted in
part from efforts by Czech authorities to reduce piecemeal equipment purchases from foreign suppliers. On January 1, 1977, the Czech ministries of foreign trade and of technology and investment issued a joint decree encouraging imports of complete investment sets. Entire systems are to be purchased from a single foreign supplier whenever possible. This supplier will provide the technology, engineering, training, installation, and product testing, allowing
the Czeclioslovaks to- reap the full benefit possible from the new machinery and production process.


U.S. imports

U.S. imports from Czechoslovakia edged upward in 1977 to $36.4 million
from $34.8 a year earlier (table 13). In both years, over 80 percent of these
imports were manufactured items, reflecting Czechoslovakia's position as one of the more industrialized countries in Europe. The largest item imported
was footwear, with slightly over I million pairs valued at $6.7 million entering, in 1977 compared, with 973,000 pairs valued at $5.8 million in 1976. Czechoslovakia produces approximately 125 million pairs of shoes annually, l/ exporting about half of these to some 90 countries. Almost two-thirds of these exports go to the Soviet Union.

U.S. imports of Czechoslovak glassware rose from $4.6 million in 1976 to
$5.1 million in 1977, while imports of machine tools fell from $3.8 million in 1976 to $3.4 million in 1977. 2/ Other major manufactured items imported in 1977 were steel wire rods, textile machinery, oilwell casings, furniture and parts of bemtwood, imitation gemstones, and certain textile products. There is substantial Column 2 tariff discrimination on all of these products.

Imports of food and live animals, valued at $3.6 million, accounted for only 10 percent of total U.S. imports from Czechoslovakia. The principal items were canned hams, hops, and Bryndza cheese which made up 97 percent of the imports in this group. Imports of canned hams from Czechoslovakia have
grown significantly in the past several years, from $0.4 million in 1975 to $2.0 million in 1976 and $2.1 million in 1977. There is no column 2 tariff discrimination on canned hams.

Czechoslovakia and West Germany are the major suppliers of premium
quality hops. These hops are used by two U.S. producers of premium beer as U.S. produced hops are generally of average quality. In recent years there has been some shift in the United States toward the production of higher
quality hops in an effort to lessen import dependence. However, U.S. imports

1/ By comparison, U.S. nonrubber footwear production in 1977 was 383.5 million pairs.
2/ For an extended discussion of machine tool trade, see the Tenth Quarterly Report, June 1977.







41



of hops from Czechoslovakia rose in 1977 to $1.1 million, from the 1976 level
of $700,000. 1/ Czechoslovakia was the sole import source of Bryndza cheese in 1977 and imports were virtually unchanged from the 1976 level. Both
products have significantly higher duty rate levels because of Column 2 tariff treatment.



German Democratic Republic

Reflecting a sharp reduction in U.S. exports, total U.S. trade with East
Germany as recorded in official U.S. trade statistics fell to less than S53 million in 1977, a significant decrease from the record high of $78.2 mill'ion registered in 1976 (table 14 U.S. exports dropped from $64.8 million in
1976 to $36.1 million in 1977, or by $28.7 million. Over 94 percent of this
decline was due to a reduction in U.S. exports of grain and other agricultural products shipped directly to East Germany. 2/ In contrast, imports zrom Last. Germany rose to a record $16.9 million, a 25.6 percent increase over 1976. As a result, the U.S. trade surplus with East Germany decreased from $51.4 million in 1976 to $19.2 million in 1977.

Monitoring of trade between the United States and the nonmarket economy
countries has revealed a situation which is not uncommon in U-S.-NHE trade, but which is more notable in trade between the United States and East Germany than in trade with any other 1 .ME country. It has become clear that a lar,:,e amount of trade between the two countries is not reflected in the standard
reporting of U.S. trade statistics, but, rather, that a substantial proportion of the U.S. exports which ultimately reach East Germany are recorded as U.S. exports to Canada, the Netherlands, and '04est Germany. These U.S. exports, primarily agricultural products, are then transshipped through these countries to East Ger-many. Therefore, the value of direct shipments of U.S. exports to East Germany recorded in official statistics is significantly less than the
actual value of total U.S. exports to East Germany, inclusive of transshipments of goods of U.S. origin through third countries. The
tabulation below compares shipments to East Germany of U.S. agricultural

1/ For an extended discussion of trade in hops, see the Seventh Quarterly Report, September 1976.
2/ Agricultural products include all items classified under Schedule B,
group 1, "food and live animals," as well as such products as sunflower seed, cottonseed oil, alfalfa seed, and cattle hides classified in groups 2 and 4, 11crude materials" and "oils and fats."










42






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43



products which are direct, with total agricultural shipments of U.S. origin to East Germany which include transshipments.


Year Direct : Total agricultural
shipments : exports, including,
transshipments
($1,000,000) 0,0-00-)-1973 ------------- : $24.5 $132.4
1974 ------------- : 17.2 215.0
1975 ------------- : 10.6 343.7
1976 ------------- : 58.3 364.9
1977 ------------- : 31.2 239.8 1/

I/ Preliminary figure.

Source: Compiled from data supplied by the U.S. Department
of Agriculture.


Grains are the principal agricultural products exported to East Germany, followed by soybean oil-cake and meal. Total grain sales for the five years 1973-77 including transshipments were:


Year Value
($1,000)

1973 ------------ $101,948
1974 ------------ 152,162
1975 ------------ 288,024
1976 ------------ 318,712
1977 ------------ 155,619 l/

1/ Preliminary figure.


In November 1976, East Germany and the United States reached an
understanding in which the East Germans expressed their intention to purchase
approximately 1.5-2.0 million metric tons of grain annually from the United States. In 1977, the East Germans purchased an estimated 1.5 million metric
tons, compared with purchases of approximately 2.9 million metric tons in 1976.

The decline in total U.S. grain exports to East Germany in 1977 resulted
from a variety of factors. Although the East Germans had a comparatively short grain crop of 8.7 million metric tons in 1977, conditions for the
production of forage were excellent) and internal supplies of hays and silage were up. These developments will lower East Germany's requirement for grain imports to some extent. Additionally, a bountiful Soviet harvest in 1976 meant the U.S.S.R. had grain available for export. The Soviet Union is a traditional supplier of grain to East Germany, and the United States only a residual supplier. It is thus likely that East Germany satisfied a large






A
X



portion of its grain requirements with imports from the Soviet Union rather than with imports from the United States, as had been the case in 1976. There are also indications that East Germany substituted purchases of European barley in place of corn from the United States in 1977. Th-e3e grains would be rouga substitutes when used for livestock feed.

Joint United States-East German Tfade Councils were set up and met for the first time in June to promote long-term economic, scientific, and technological cooperation between the two countries. The two councils, one to be based in the United States and one in East Germany, are composed of U.S. business representatives and East German government offi cials-The two countries have agreed to concentrate trade expansion efforts in the following industries: machine tools, electronics, chemicals, precision instruments, consumer goods, food$ and animal feeds-. Also, they decided to seek ways to increase
opportunities for commercial contact in the two countries, to reduce or eliminate barriers to trade, to increase the exchange of commercial and technical information, and to encourage the granting of licenses. In addition, East Germany agreed to establish a special office within its Ministry of Foreign Trade to help U.S. businessmen who are dealing or wish to deal with that country. The chairman of the U.S. Council predicted that East Germany will become a major market for U.S. technology in the future. He based his prediction on the fact that East Germany presently ranks ninth in the world in terms of industrial output and is committed to continued expansion of its industrial sector in the future.


Direct U.S. exports

U.S. trade fi,-ures of exports to East Germany, which do not include transshipments, show a 44.2 percent decrease in exports to East Germany between 1976 and 1977. Reduced exports of agricultural products, principally grain, accounted for most of the decline. Direct agricultural exports to East Ger-many in 1977 included corn ($11.5 million), wheat ($8.2 million), soybean oil-cake and meal ($5.1 million), fresh lemons ($1.6million), sunflower seed ($1.1 million), cottonseed oil ($0.7 million), cattle hides ($0.7 million), oats ($0.5 million), muskrat furskins ($0.4 million), fresh grapefruits ($0.3 million), and alfalfa seed ($0.3 million).

U.S. exports of manufactured products decreased 17 percent, from $4.6
million in 1976 to $3.8 million in 1977 (table 14). Most of this decrease can be attributed to a decline in exports of plastic and rubber molding and
extrusion machinery; exports of these items fell from $1.2 million in 1976 to none at all in 1977. The principal U.S. item exported in 1977 was foundry machinery and parts, valued at $700,000, all shipped in July. Other important export items in this category were aluminum and aluminum alloy tubes and pipes ($0.3 million), still picture equipment ($0.2 million), nonclay firebricks ($0.2 million), unworked glass ($0.2 million), well-drilling machinery parts ($0.2 million), digital electronic computers ($0.2 million), and oil field equipment ($0.1 million).

Exports of crude materials amounted to $3.5 million in 1977; however only $698,043 of this amount has not already been discussed as agricultural products. The major non- agricultural exports in this category were tungsten







45



ores and concentrates ($0.3 million), synthetic rubber ($0.1 million), copper-base alloy waste and scrap ($0-i million), and non-alloy copper waste and scrap ($0.1 million).

The decline in U.S. non-agricultural exports to East Germany may be
attributed principally to the current restricted availability of hard currency
with which to purchase U.S. products - The United States offers no government-supported export credits to non-MFN countries. East German private
borrowing to finance imported capital goods and projects has been extensive in Europe as well as the United States, but is not expected to continue unless hard currency exports can be expanded. East German export experience with western countries has not been encouraging in recent years.

Demand in the West for East German manufactured goods was soft during 1975 due to depressed economic conditions. The subsequent recovery has not been robust) and competition from other exporting countries is keen in the consumer and light capital goods market in which East Germany is prominent. Tariff
discrimination, quotas, and other barriers to East German goods in the West have also discouraged export expansion. on the supply side, East Germany has incurred a huge trade deficit with the Soviet Union due to increasing prices for the raw materials imported from that country. Repayment of this debt is
in the form of exports of goods that might otherwise be sold in hard currency markets. In sum, unless the East Germans can expand their supply of hard
currency, the growth of U.S. non-agricultural exports to that country will be slow and uncertain.


U.S. imports

U.S. imports from East Germany rose for the third consecutive year,
reaching $16.9 million in 1977. The increase was spread fairly evenly among the import categories; only mineral fuels and lubricants, and miscellaneous manufactured articles showed slight decreases (table 14).

Imports of manufactured goods l/ accounted for 62.6 percent of the total, reflecting East Germany's position as the leading industrial nation among the nonmarket economy countries. Principal items imported in this group were still 35-mm cameras, pig and hog leather, non-automatic portable typewriters, printing presses, glassware, articles of wood, artificial flowers, bovine leather, and skis and snowshoes. Portable typewriters enter free of duty, but
Column 2 duties on the other items are substantial, ranging from 20 percent on the cameras to 90 percent on the artificial flowers.

U.S. imports of chemicals also showed significant growth in 1977, rising 45 percent to $3.7 million. The principal item was urea, with entries of
$2.8 million. No imports of this item were recorded in 1976. Urea is mainly used as a fertilizer, but is also used as an animal feed supplement and in
plastics manufacture. Imports of potassium chloride, which is also used as a fertilizer, dropped sharply from $2.1 million in 1976 to $0.4 million in 1977. Both urea and potassium chloride enter duty free.

l/ Schedule A group nos. 6, 7, and 8.







46



U.S. imports of crude materials from East Germany in 1977 totaled
$1.7 million, almost double their value' in 1976. Mink furs were the principal item in this group; imports of the item accounted for 85 percent of the total value of this category. Mink furs also enter duty free.



Hungary

Total U.S.-Hungarian trade advanced by $16 million in 1977, to $127
million. U.S. exports increased 27 percent over 1976, reaching a record high level of $79.7 million, based on sharply rising exports of agricultural products and machinery an d transport equipment. U.S. imports from Hungary, however, remained essentially stable in value and composition, declining only slightly to $46.8 million, with increased shipments of chemicals and miscellaneous manufactures compensating for a fall in exports of machinery and semi-manufactures (table 15).

Although U.S.trade with Hungary currently accounts for less than one-half of one percent of total U.S. trade, prospects for the development and diversification of U.S.-Hurigarian commercial relations improved markedly in 1977. In May, Hungary issued new laws covering joint ventur--s between foreign companies and Hungarian enterprises that substantially improved the legal and economic environment for such arrangements. Majority foreign ownership is now permitted in service and financial enterprises, and joint equity in production firms is also allowed for the first time, with foreign participation not to exceed 49 percent. At the same time tax laws, profit remittance regulations, and other legal requirements concerning joint ventures have been simplified,
giving the unmistakable impression that an increase in the level of foreign participation in the economy is desired.

Other Hungarian efforts to expand commercial contacts and trade with the United States in 1977 included the negotiation of a large trade loan with a
consortium of banks managed by the Bank of AmericaI the opening of an office of the Hungarian National Bank in New York, and the launching of an industrial seminar series in four U.S. cities by the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce. In 1978, Hungarian delegations will actively participate for the first time in several U.S. industrial and technical conferences. At the U.S.-Hungarian Joint Economic Council meeting in September, representatives of both countries emphasized the opportunities for trade in agriculture, electronics, and medicine. Hungary would like to diversify its import sources, and certain technology-intensive goods are best purchased in the United States. However, the Hungarian capacity to increase imports from this country will be constrained if they are unable to expand their hard currency exports or to receive adequate financing for U.S. exports. Both these conditions will likely improve if Hungary were eligible for MFN tariff treatment.

Progress was made in 1977 toward the normalization of commercial relations between the two countries, as political barriers to the granting of MFN status to Hungary continued to fall. By the end of 1976, all outstanding U.S. financial claims on Hungary were settled. With the return to Hungary in December 1977 of the Crown of St. Stephen, a national symbol of great historic importance held by the United States since the end of World War III it became










47







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48



possible to contemplate the signing of a trade treaty with the Hungarians that would satisfy the requirements of the T rade Act of 1974. Both countries agreed that a major obstacle remaining was a formula by which section 402 of
the Trade Act, the Jackson-Vanik Amendment, which denies the granting of MFN status and U.S. official financing to countries not permitting free emigration, could be reconciled with Hungarian law. Confidential discussions were initiated in late 1977 between the two countries, and a draft treaty emerged in March 1978.

Hungarian trade, national income, and industrial output expanded strongly in 1977, exceeding planned levels by I or 2 percentage points in each case.
This was fueled by greatly increased investment spending that exceeded the planned amount by 10 percentage points. Credit was tightened in late 1977,
and the planned level of investment spending is not expected to rise significantly in 1978. it was feared that the economy would not be able to
efficiently absorb such a large increase in spending, and slower growth rates are targeted for most sectors in 1978. These factors will probably reduce Hungarian industrial demand for capital goods imports in 1978. Hard currency imports are scheduled to be held to a 3 to 5 percent rate of growth in any
case, due to the size of the trade deficit in 1977, a large portion of which was in hard currency trade.

These low targets for import growth are contrasted with a planned 12 to 15 percent increase in hard currency exports. Hungarian trade officials have
indicated that this level is somewhat dependent on continued improvement in the quality of manufactured exports to western countries and on keeping export costs down. But government price subsidies in food and export industries are
to be phased out, and prices are periodically adjusted to reflect increased import costs and other changes. It is uncertain whether these measures can be taken without affecting export costs.


U..S. exports

The increase in the value of U.S. exports to Hungary in 1977 was centered in agricultural products and heavy machinery. Agricultural products accounted for over 42 percent of U.S. exports to Hungary in 1977. Soybean oil-cake and meal remained the major item exported, but the value of these exports has declined steadily since 1975) from a peak of $34.9 million in that year to $14.5 million in 1976 and to $12.3 million in 1977. A substantial portion of
these sales has probably been lost to Brazil, which has rapidly increased its soybean and soy product exports in recent years. Exports of yellow corn, however, increased twenty-fold, from only $400,000 in 1976 to $8.2 million in 1977. Other major agricultural exports were dairy cattle for breeding stock) cattle hides, kip and sheep skins, oats, cornseed) bull semen, and various furskins.

The other major category in U.S. export trade with Hungary is machinery and transport equipment. These exports have grown much faster than overall exports in the last decade, rising from less than $1 million in 1968 to $27.3 million in 1977. In 1976 and 1977, they accounted for approximately one-third of total U.S. exports to Hungary. Industrial trucks and tractors were the largest subgroup, totaling $6.1 million, followed by agricultural machinery at






49



$5 million, calculator and computer equipment, glassworking machinery, scientific measuring and testing equipment, and metalworking machinery. Exports of chemicals, which had shown promise in 1976 when they reached a
record value of $16.7 million, declined to $11.3 million in 1977, barely above the 1975 level. This pattern was governed by fluctuating sales of
concentrated superphosphate fertilizer, which comprises roughly three-fourths of the value of U.S. chemical exports-to Hungary in the period 1975-77.


U.S. imports

U.S. imports from Hungary are heavily weighted toward agricultural
products; over 55 percent of the value is attributable to these items. This proportion has been increasing in the 1970's, as Hungary's traditional role as an agricultural producer and exporter has received renewed emphasis. The most
important U.S. import in 1977 was canned hams weighing over 3 pounds, totaling $18.1 million. Other canned pork products imported from Hungary were valued at $1.9 million for the year. U.S. imports of Hungarian paprika rose to $1.1 million in 1977, compared with less than $700,000 in the previous year. Another major agricultural product was opium alkaloids. It is imported under the chemicals category. Used as the main ingredient in many opium-based
drugs, imports of this item reached $2.5 million in 1977, and accounted for nearly the total increase in U.S. chemical imports from Hungary in that year.

Imports of manufactured goods, classified by chief material, declined slightly to $3.0 million in 1977, due principally to reduced shipments of
rubber tires. Machinery and equipment imports fell more sharply, reflecting declining U.S. purchases of motor vehicle parts and miscellaneous machinery and appliances. Partially offsetting these reductions, U.S. imports of ladies' footwear from Hungary rose from $500,000 in 1976 to $1.7 million in
1977.

Of the current major U.S. imports from Hungary, only household 'lamps suffer from any significant level of.tariff discrimination due to the imposition of column 2 rates of duty. If Hungary were to enjoy MFN status, it has been estimated by the U.S. Department of Commerce that U.S. imports of several other manufactured goods might increase substantially, including electric light and power machinery and equipment, furniture, textiles, and textile and leather wearing apparel.



Bulgaria

U.S. exports to Bulgaria declined in 1977 as sales of agricultural
commodities dropped to their lowest level since 1973. U.S. imports for consumption, in contrast, showed a marked increase over 1976, rising about $11.2 million to $26.0 million (table 16). However, almost 85 percent of these imports from Bulgaria consisted of cigarette leaf tobacco which was withdrawn from bonded warehouses. In 1975 and 1976, U.S. importers had taken advantage of the relatively low price of Bulgarian tobacco to stockpile large quantities in bonded warehouses in the United States. In 1977, $21.9 million of this tobacco was withdrawn from these warehouses and recorded in the trade


















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statistics as imports for consumption. General imports of Bulgarian cigarette
leaf amounted to $13.9 million in 1977 all of these imports occurring in the spring-I/ In 1977, the average ad valorem equivalent for Bulgarian cigarette
leaf was 26.5 percent compared with 10.8 percent for all countries (including column 2 countries).

Total U.S. exports to Bulgaria declined from $43.3 million in 1976 to
$23.9 million in 1977, as exports of food and live animals plunged from $30.5 million in 1976 to less than $1 million in 1977. The Bulgarians enjoyed a relatively good harvest in 1976 and were able to build up-grain reserves. The
1977 harvest was expected to be equally as good and few orders were placed for U.S. grains. However, late in the year, Bulgaria was hit by numerous natural catastrophes--drought, hail storms, drizzly weather, and cold spells. The result was a harvest 450,000 metric tons less than planned and 500,000 metric tons less than in 1976. In addition, a substantial portion of the fruit trees and vines were dama,7ed while in bloom. it is possible that the Bulgarians did
place orders for grain and other agricultural commodities after the harvest results were known, but because 0 f the lag time between placing orders and delivery, these orders will not be shipped until spring 1978.

The reduced value of U.S. exports of food and live animals was partially
offset by greatly increased exports of machinery and transport equipment. Almost $10 million worth of rolling mill machinery was exported in 1977.
Other leading exports included telecommunicate ions equipment (such as electric search apparatus, radar, and electronic navigational aids), integrated circuits, physical properties testing and inspecting instruments, and storage devices for electronic computers.

Prospects for expanded U.S. exports in this area are mixed. Bulgaria's 5-year plan calls for 9.2 percent annual growth in industrial output, 7.7 percent growth in national income, and approximately 10 percent growth in foreign trade. Since Bulgaria already has a substantial number of.plants)
emphasis in the current 5-year period will be on modernization and diversification. In order to fulfill the plan, Bulgaria may turn to Western firms for help in the following sectors: agricultural and food processing technology, electronic and machine tool equipment, chemicals, roadbuilding and
earthmoving equipment, and machinery and equipment for the metallurgical industry. Whether it will be U.S. firms which get the contracts for these goods is not easy to predict, however. One problem is that U.S. businessmen generally prefer payment in hard currency, rather than in the output of the
Bulgarian industry; payment in goods is a frequent occurrence in Western trade with that country. Another problem is Bulgaria's pointed resentment over not being granted IFN status by the United States. In November 1977, the Bulgarian ministries of foreign trade and finance announced new classifications of countries by trade status for the purpose of assessing tariffs on

l/ General imports are a combination of entries for immediate consumption and' entries into Customs bonded warehouses. These data generally reflect
total arrivals of merchandise, whether such merchandise enters consumption channels immediately or is entered into warehouses under Customs' custody to be subsequently withdrawn for consumption or withdrawn for exportation. For an extended discussion of tobacco imports from Bulgaria, see the Eleventh Quarterly Report, September 1977.







52



imports into Bulgaria. Countries are grouped as follows: those with which Bulgaria has concluded agreements of MFN treatment, Communist countries (excluding Yugoslavia), a preferential category for LDC's (further subdivided into two subgroups, one receiving a 100 percent tariff reduction and the other receiving a 59 percent reduction), and a final new category entitled it countries whicin apply a discriminatory tariff regime on Bulgarian goods." The United States is the sole member of this category. The new tariff system can be expected to create disincentives for importing dutiable goods from all industrialized Western countries, but most particularly from the United States.

U.S. imports of products other than tobacco are very small amounting to $4.2 million in 1974, $2.9 million in 1975, $2.8 million in 1976, and $4.1 million in 1977. Aside from tobacco, silver bullion was the principal import item in 1-977; however,'at $1.2 million, Bulgaria's share of total U.S. imports of this product was only 0.4 percent. Bulgaria has not previously exported silver bullion to the United States, and possibly was induced to do so in 1977 by rising world prices of silver and the need for hard currency. Silver bullion enters free of duty under both column I and column 2 rates.

Imports of other manufactured products from Bulgaria amounted to only $878,000 in 1977-1/ Over 45 percent of these consisted of portable non-automatic typewriters which enter free of duty for both column I and column 2. Imports of glassware accounted for another 23 percent of these products. There is significant column 2 tariff discrimination on glassware. Other manufactured products imported from Bulgaria included machine tools, pile floor coverings, footwear, postage stamps, antiques, and metal coins. There is substantial column 2 tariff discrimination on the first three items; however the latter three enter free of duty.

The remaining imports were mostly food goods or oils and fats. The
principal items were pecorino cheese, paprika, apple and pear juice, rose oil, lavender and spike lavender oil, raisins, enfleurage greases and floral essences, mint leaves, and dried prunes and plums. The column 2 tariff differential was significant for pecorino cheese, apple and pear juice, and raisins.



Albania, Cuba, and the People's Republic of Mongolia

In contrast to a decline of nearly 20 percent in the value of overall U.S.-NME trade in 1977, U.S. trade with the three smallest NME countries covered by this report increased to $8.4 million in 1977, or by 139 percent over the value recorded in 1976. As a result of the traditional absence of grain and animal feeds in the composition of U.S. exports to Albania, Cuba, and Mongolia, the volume of trade was not adversely affected by the drop in U.S. sales of these items. Overall U.S. trade with Albania and Cuba increased markedly over 1976 levels, while U.S.-Mongolian trade declined only slightly.

Albania is the largest U.S. trading partner of these three NME'sq with total two-way trade in 1977 of $5.6 million, or two-thirds of the total.

I/ Schedule B group nos. 6, 7, and 8.







53



Although once a close ally, first of Yugoslavia and then the U.S.S.R., Albania
sided with China in the Sino-Soviet ideological dispute and broke with its former ally in 1961. In late 1977, as power in post-Mao China passed to a more moderate group, Albania again began to declare its displeasure with a Communist ally. Since Albanian trade with China has averaged 50 percent of
the total Albanian trade, including a large portion of the country's necessary food imports, a political break with China could impose significant economic hardships. It would, however, also offer opportunities for an expansion of U.S.-Albanian trade.

U.S. exports to Albania increased by nearly $900,000 in 1977 to $2.2
million, on the strength of sales of bituminous coal of $1.8 million; no coal exports to Albania were recorded in 1976. Exports of cattle hides declined to $270,000 from over $400,000 in 1976. Other U.S. exports to Albania in 1977
were centered in video tape recorders, scientific machinery parts and instruments, and miscellaneous chemicals. U.S. imports from Albania have been dominated by purchases of chrome ore and unground sage in recent years. Purchases of these items were responsible for the increase in value of U.S. imports from Albania from $2.5 million in 1976 to $3.4 million in 1977. Coins, other spices, and marten furskins are other products regularly imported.

Two-way trade with Cuba, which had reached a level of over $1.7 billion in 1959, is currently restricted by the continuing U.S. embargo on commerce with that country. Under special permits issued by the U.S. Departments of Treasury and Commerce, trade with Cuba reached only $700,000 in 1977. However) even this relatively small amount was an enormous increase over the 1976 level of $116,000. Although current world political conditions make it unlikely that the embargo will be lifted in the near future, several steps were taken in 1977 to encourage a gradual normalization of relations between
the two countries, including the exchange of personnel for handling country affairs in lieu of formal embassy representation, and the institution of a fishing agreement to deal with problems generated by the extension of the limit on territorial waters to 200 miles. In addition, several U.S. citizens held in Cuban prisons have been returned or released, and some progress was made concerning the repatriation of U.S. citizens living in Cuba and the
reunification of some families divided due to restrictive Cuban emigration policies.

U.S. exports to Cuba of $588,000 in 1977 were centered in medical
chemicals and equipment. Other exports included telecommunications equipment) air conditioners, and typewriters. The value of U.S. imports increased nearly fourfold over the 1976 level due to purchases of fertilizers totaling $104,000; the total value of imports was $106,000.

U.S.-Mongolian trade is exceedingly one-sided, composed almost entirely of U.S. imports of cashmere and camel hair, and furskins. Imports from Mongolia declined to $2.1 million in 1977 from $2.3 million the previous year. U.S. exports fell from $31,000 in 1976 to $11,000 in 1977, and consisted only of scientific materials and typewriters.






OW
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INDEX








80



Each Quarterly Report to the Congress and the East-West Foreign Trade
Board on trade Between the United States and the Nonrnarket Economy Countries
contains:

(1) a summary of developments in U.S.-N{E trade for that
calendar quarter, with the summary of the fourth
quarter as an annual review;

(2) seven summary tables and two figures describing the
value, direction, composition, and individual country trade shares of U.S.-NNIE trade through that calendar
quarter;

(3) a series of appendix tables describing the leading
items traded by the United States with each of the 12
NI4E countries covered, disaggregated to the 7-digit level of the respective import and export schedules,
through the end of that calendar quarter.

other subjects covered periodically or on an irregular basis are listed below. All page numbers refer to the official USITC publication, with the exception of Report No.4. Page numbers for that report refer to the copy published by the U.S. Government Printing Office for Commission.

Albania: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 42-43 (inc. table); No. 5, p. 57; No. 9, p. 72; No. 13, pp. 52-53

Aluminum: U.S. imports and exports; No. 8, pp. 34-37 (incl. table)

Animal and vegetable products: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 17-21 (inc. table)

Antimony oxide: U.S imports from China; No. 6, p. 34; No. 9, p. 33

Aspirin: U.S. imports; No. 6, p. 33

BicSycles: U.S. imports; No. 6, p. 50

Bulgaria: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 39-41 (inc. table); No. 5, pp. 53-55 (inc. table); No. 9, pp. 66-70, (inc. table); No. 13, pp. 49-52 (incl. table)

Chemical products: U.S. imports, No. 2, pp. 36-46 (incl. tables); No. 6, pp. 31-36 (inc. table)

Chicory roots, crude: U.S imports; No. 6, p. 21

Chrome ore: U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R.; No. 9, p. 21

Clothespins: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 47-49








81



Clothing: U.S. imports; No. 6, p. 30; No. 8, pp. 25-27 (inc. table) Clothing, cotton: U.S. imports from China; No. 9, pp. 31-32 Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC): No. 9, p. 37; No. 5, p. 32; No. 12, p. 24 Copper conductor, insulated: U.S. imports from Yugoslavia; No. 6, p. 44; No. 7, pp. 45-49 (inc. table)
Coppr unwroug ht: U.S. imports from Yugoslavia; No. 9, p. 40 Cuba: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 44-45, (mdnc. table); No. 5, p. 56; No. 9, p. 71; No. 13, p. 53 Czechoslovakia: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 28-31 Tincl table); No. 5, pp. 43-45 (inc. table); No 9, pp. 53-56 (inc. table); No 13, pp. 37-41 (inc. table) Diamonds: U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R.; No. 9, p. 21 Ferroalloys and nonferrous metals: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 44-45; No. 7, pp. 3/-44 (inca.. tables)

Fibers, flax and hemp: U.S. imports; No. 6, p. 24 Fibrous vegetable materials: U.S. imports from China; No. 6, pp. 23-24 Flax: see Fibers, flax and hemp Footwear:
U.S. imports; No. 2, pp. 18-25 (inc. tables); No. 6, pp. 51-52;
No. 8, pp. 38-42 (inc. table)
U.S. imports from Poland; No. 9, p. 34
U.S. imports from Romania; No. 9, p. 48

Footwear, leather welt: U.S. imports from Romania; No. 11, pp. 17-25 (inc. tables)

Gas, natural: U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R.; No. 9, p. 18 Generalized System of Preferences (GSP): No. 9, p. 41 German Democratic Republic: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 32-35 (inc. table); No. 5, pp. 49-52 (incl. table); No. 9, pp. 57-60 (inc. table); No. 13, pp. 41-46 (inc. table) Glass', flat: U.S. imports from Romania; No. 5, p. 40 Glass, sheet:
U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 37-39; No. 8, pp. 28-33 (inc. tables)
U.S. imports from Romania; No. 9, pp. 15, 49







82



Glassware: U.S. imports; No. 6, p. 39 Gold coins: U.S. imports from Hungary; No. 1, pp. 36-37; No. 5, p. 46 Golf cars: U.S. imports from Poland; No. 3, p. 16; No. 5, p. 32 Grain:
U.S. exports; No. 3, pp. 3-5 (incl. table); No. 4, pp. 2-4 (inc. table);
No. 5, pp. 1-4 (incl. table); No. 6, pp. 1-5 (incl. table); No. 7,
pp. 8-11 (incl. table); No. 8, pp. 6-8 (inc. table); No. 9, pp. 11-13
(incl. tables); No. 12, pp. 11-28 (incl. tables)
U.S. exports to China; No. 9, pp. 27-29
U.S. exports to Czechoslovakia, No. 9, p. 53
U.S. exports to East Germany; No. 9, pp. 57-59
U.S. exports to Poland; No. 5, p. 31; No. 9, p. 36
U.S. exports to Romania; No. 8, pp. 12-13; No. 9, p. 50
U.S. exports to the U.S.S.R.; No. 5, pp. 17-18; No. 9, pp. 11-13
(inc. table)

Hams, canned:
U.S. imports; No. 6, p. 18; No. 7, pp. 22-28 (incl. tables)
U.S. imports from Poland; No. 9, p. 34

Headwear: U.S. imports from China; No. 6, p. 51 Headwear, cotton: U.S. imports; No. 7, pp. 56-59 (incl. table) Hemp: see Fibers, flax and hemp Hides and skins: U.S. exports; No. 12, pp. 28-35 (incl. tables) Hops: U.S. imports; No. 7. pp. 29-32 (incl. table) Hjungary: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 36-38 (incl. table); No. 5, pp. 46-48 (incl. table); No. 9, pp. 61-65 (incl. table); No. 13, pp. 46-49 (incl. table)

Iridium: see Platinum group metals Iron and steel: U.S. imports; No. 2, pp. 26-35 (incl. tables) Labor content of U.S. exports to the nonmarket economy countries: No. 4, pp. 11-16 (incl. tables)

Labor content of U.S. imports from the nonmarket economy countries.: No. 3, pp. 18-26 (incl. tables)

Machine tools: U.S. imports and exports; No. 10, pp. 18-54 (incl. tables) Manganese alloys: see ferrozilloys Metals and metal products: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 41-46 (incl. table)







83



Mongolia: see People's Republic of Mongolia Nonmetallic minerals and metals: U.S. imports, No. 6, pp. 37-40 (inc. table) Nuclear reactor parts: U.S. exports to Yugoslavia; No. 12, p. 5 Osmium: see Platinum group metals Palladium: see Platinum group metals Pantothenic acid: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 33-34 People's Republic of China: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1,
pp. 10-12 (incl. table); No. 5, pp. 24-29 (inc. table); No. 9, pp. 27-33 (inc. table); No. 13, pp. 19-23 (inc. table) People'sRepublic of Mongolia: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1,
pp. 46-47 (inc. table); No. 5, p. 57; No. 9, p. 72; No. 13, pp. 53 Petroleum and petroleum products: U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R.; No. 4, p. 10; No. 9, pp. 18-20

Platinup__roup metals: U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R.; No. 9, p. 20; No. 11, pp. 33-45 (inc. tables)

lywood, birch: U.S. imports from the U.S.S.R.; No. 6, pp. 22-23; No. 7.
pp. 33-36 (inc. table)

Poland: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 18-20 (inc. table);
No. 5, pp. 30-33 (inc. table); No. 9, pp. 34-39 (inc. table); No. 13, pp. 23-28 (inc. table)

Potassium chloride: U.S. imports from East Germany; No. 9, p. 59 Rabbit meat: U.S. imports from China; No. 6, p 17; No. 9, p. 32 Rhodium: see Platinum group metals Romania: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 25-27 (inc. table); No. 5, pp. 38-42 (incl. table); No. 9, pp. 46-52 (inc. table); No. 13, pp. 32-37 (incl. table)

Ruthenium: see Platinum group metals Silicon alloys: see ferroalloys Soybeans: U.S. exports to Romania; No. 9, p. 50 Specified products: miscellaneous and nonenumerated products: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 47-52 (incl. table)

Suits, men's and boys': U.S imports from Romania; No. 9, p. 48







84



Sulfonamides: U.S. imports; No. 6, p. 31 Textile fibers and textile fabrics: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 26-30 (inc. table)

Textiles: U.S. imports; No. 2, pp. 53-60 (inc. tables) Textiles, cotton:
U.S imports; No. 8, pp. 18-24 (inc. tables)
U.S. imports from China; No. 6, pp. 26-29 (inc. table); No. 9, pp. 31-32 Tin: U.S. imports from China; No. 2, p. 47-52 (incl. table); No. 4, p. 10 (inc. table); No. 5, pp. 25-26; No. 9, p. 31 Tobacco_,_ oriental cigarette leaf:
U.S. imports; No. 11, pp. 46-54 (inc. tables)
U.S. imports from Bulgaria; No. 9, p. 66 Tools: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 41-44 Tractors, agricultural: U.S. imports; No. 7, pp. 50-55 (inc. tables) Tungsten: U.S. imports from China; No. 5, p. 26 Union of Soviet Socialist Republics: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 13-17 (incl. table); No. 5, pp. 17-23 (inc. table); No. 9, pp. 18-26 (inc. table); No. 13, pp. 9-19 (inc. table) Wood and paper: printed matter: U.S. imports; No. 6, pp. 22-25 (incI. table) Wood furniture: U.S. imports; No. 11, pp. 26-32 (incl. tables) Woodpul11: U.S. exports; No. 12, pp. 35-44 (inc. tables) Yugoslavia: U.S. imports and exports, annual; No. 1, pp. 21-24 (inc. table); No. 5, pp. 34-37 (incl. table; No. 9, pp. 40-45 (incl. table); No. 13, pp. 28-32 (incl. table)







UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


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