Citation
Horizontal planum temporale of the Human brain and its relationship with phonological processing and emergent reading skills in young children

Material Information

Title:
Horizontal planum temporale of the Human brain and its relationship with phonological processing and emergent reading skills in young children
Creator:
Williams, Sharyl A
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
v, 115 leaves : ; 29 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Asymmetry ( jstor )
Intelligence quotient ( jstor )
Mathematical variables ( jstor )
Phonemes ( jstor )
Phonemics ( jstor )
Phonological awareness ( jstor )
Phonology ( jstor )
Socioeconomic status ( jstor )
Variable coefficients ( jstor )
Words ( jstor )
Dissertations, Academic -- Educational Psychology -- UF ( lcsh )
Educational Psychology thesis, Ph.D ( lcsh )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2001.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 106-114).
General Note:
Printout.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Sharyl Ann Williams.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright [name of dissertation author]. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
027793325 ( ALEPH )
48449452 ( OCLC )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text











HORIZONTAL PLANUM TEMPORALE OF THE HUMAN BRAIN AND ITS
RELATIONSHIP WITH PHONOLOGICAL PROCESSING AND EMERGENT
READING SKILLS IN YOUNG CHILDREN













By

SHARYL ANN WILLIAMS


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


2001















ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


I express my thanks to everyone who helped with the completion of this

dissertation. I thank the members of my committee whose suggestions strengthened this

dissertation. In addition, I express my gratitude to my friends and fellow graduate

students Tashawna Duncan, Jennifer Grudnik, and Diana Joyce for their support and

encouragement throughout this process.

Specifically, I thank Dr. Christiana Leonard who made this dissertation possible

through her generosity of time, her knowledge, and her sincere commitment to higher

education. She is an inspiration.

I also express my gratitude to Dr. Thomas Oakland for his consistent advice,

encouragement, and support that has continued since the beginning of my graduate career.

I cannot envision a better mentor.

I thank Robert Bandy, my love, for his patience and unwavering support as I have

worked to close this chapter of my life and begin a new one.

Finally, I thank my mother who always made certain that I knew she believed in

me.















TABLE OF CONTENTS

pae

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...................................................................... ii

A B ST R A C T ...................................................................................... iv

CHAPTERS

1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................... 1

2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE ........................................................ 3

Phonological Development ............................................................ 3
Phonological Processing ............................................................... 4
B rain D evelopm ent ..................................................................... 22
Research Questions ..................................................................... 38

3 M ET H O D ................................................................................ 42

P articipants ................................................................................ 42
Instrum entation ......................................................................... 43
M R I S can ................................................................................. 50
Statistical A nalyses ...................................................................... 53

4 R E SU LT S ................................................................................ 57

Research Question 1: Phonemic Awareness ...................................... 59
Research Question 2: Emergent Reading ............................................ 67
Research Question 3: Rapid Naming ................................................ 77
Pow er A nalysis ........................................................................ 84

5 D ISC U SSIO N ............................................................................ 87

R E FE R E N C E S ................................................................................ 106

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ................................................................ 115




iii















Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

HORIZONTAL PLANUM TEMPORALE OF THE HUMAN BRAIN AND ITS
RELATIONSHIP WITH PHONOLOGICAL PROCESSING AND EMERGENT
READING SKILLS IN YOUNG CHILDREN

By

Sharyl Ann Williams

August 2001



Chair: Thomas Oakland
Major Department: Educational Psychology

This study examined relationships between asymmetry of the horizontal planum,

located in the temporal lobe of th,- human brain; and phonemic awareness, emergent

reading skills, and rapid naming skills in children ages five through seven. Data were

acquired by using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to measure the horizontal planum

temporale and through psychoeducational tests to assess phonemic awareness, emergent

reading, and rapid naming. Additional data were acquired on children's intelligence,

handedness, developmental history, and socioeconomic status. A series of explanatory

multiple regression models was conducted for each of the three construct skill families

(i.e., phonemic awareness, emergent reading, and rapid naming) to determine if

horizontal planar asymmetry predicted these skills. A Bonferroni adjustment was applied

for each construct family.











In reference to phonemic awareness, two of the three equations were significant.

Horizontal planar asymmetry accounts for 29% and 21 % of the variability in the scores

from measures of phoneme manipulation and auditory closure for missing phonemes,

respectively. The third equation, another measure of phoneme manipulation, was not

significant. The control variables, particularly IQ and gender, accounted for all or most of

the variability in scores.

In reference to emergent reading, three of the four variables produced significant

equations, thus suggesting that horizontal planar asymmetry predicts basic reading skills.

Horizontal planar asymmetry explained 32% of the variance on a measure of sight word

reading, 25% of the variance on an index of early reading skills, and 23% of the variance

of reading comprehension. An equation examining the relationship between horizontal

planar asymmetry and reading phonetically regular nonsense sight words was not

significant. Thus, the horizontal planum temporale was strongly related to emergent

reading skills in a sample of young children.

In reference to rapid naming, the equations were not significant. This suggests

that the neuropsychological processes associated with these skills are not located in the

horizontal planum.















CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

Phonemes consist of individual sounds of language. Moreover, phonemes often

are represented by letters or letter combinations (Palincsar & Perry, 1995). Phonemic

awareness occurs when one is consciously aware of these sounds, one is aware that words

consist of phonemes, and one has the ability to use this knowledge of phonemes when

reading and spelling (Snider, 1995; Snider, 1997).

English is an alphabetic language in which the letters are used to represent sounds.

The English writing system represents or codes words at a phonological level. The

beginning reader must learn that printed symbols (i.e., letters of the alphabet) represent

units of speech at its most basic level, the phoneme (Crowder, 1982). Knowledge that

printed symbols represent specific phonemes is not easily acquired by some children.

Persons with adequate phonemic awareness have a number of advantages when

learning to read (Wagner & Torgesen, 1987). They are likely to view the alphabetic

nature of English as a logical way of representing the language. Learning to read new

words involves segmenting the letter string into units that correspond to individual

phonemes and then blending the individual sounds together to pronounce the word.

Phonemic awareness is related to later reading ability (Snider, 1997; MacDonald

& Cornwall, 1995; Lundberg, Oloffsson, & Wall, 1980). Relationships between

phonemic awareness and reading are reciprocal (Barron, 1991; Foorman, 1995). That is,

children first develop a simple level and later acquire a more complex understanding of







2

phonemic awareness during and after reading instruction (Wagner, Torgesen, & Rashotte,

1994). Reading difficulties often are caused by deficits in phonological processes

(Stanovich, 1988). Phonological processing refers to an individual's ability to correctly

receive, interpret, and use phonological information in oral and written language (Felton

& Pepper, 1995; Wagner & Torgesen, 1987).

The temporal bank of the sylvian fissure comprises an area of the human brain key

to language processing (Leonard et al., 1993). The asymmetry of the horizontal planum

temporale is thought to be associated with phonemic awareness in children under 10 years

of age (Leonard et al., 1996). Leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum was elevated

significantly in children under 10 years of age who had phonemic awareness. This cross-

sectional study demonstrated that phonemic awareness may be related to one specific

brain structure (Leonard et al., 1996). Although studies have linked phonemic awareness

to later reading ability and to the planum temporale, no studies of phonemic awareness

and its relationship to brain development within young children who have just begun or

had no formal training in reading could be located.

This study investigates the asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale in the

temporal bank of the sylvian fissure and its relationships with phonemic awareness, rapid

naming, and emergent reading in young children.
















CHAPTER 2
REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Phonological Development

Learning to read is a complex process: one most adults take for granted.

When learning to read, children first must learn to recognize letters and then pair those

letters with sounds in order to decode words. The ability to segment sentences into

individual words is a prerequisite skill for reading. Even this apparently simple skill is

often acquired gradually during the preschool years. Young children develop the

awareness of larger linguistic units, such as words and syllables, before they are aware of

smaller linguistic units, like phonemes (Fowler, 1991 as cited in Snider, 1995). Although

children are aware of spoken words, they do not segment them into words in the same

manner as do adults. When asked to name the number of words in a sentence, young

children often will count the number of prepositions or ideas conveyed by a sentence

(Sawyer, Dougherty, Shelly, & Spaanenburg, 1990 as cited in Snider, 1995). If presented

with the sentence "Hal and Russ went fishing" very young children typically would

respond that it has two words (e.g, "Hal went fishing" and "Russ went fishing."). They

focus on the number of ideas conveyed by the sentence, not the number of words. After

acquiring the ability to segment sentences into prepositions or ideas, children then

segment the prepositions into subject and predicate terms. The sentence "Billy ran home"

would be said to contain two words, "Billy" and "ran home." Children occasionally make









mistakes when decoding sentences into words before mastering the ability to identify

individual words. They may mistake syllables for words and not recognize prepositions

as independent words.

Phonological Processing

Phonological processing refers to an individual's ability to correctly receive,

interpret, and use phonological information in oral and written language (Felton &

Pepper, 1995; Wagner & Torgesen, 1987). Phonological processing skills are necessary

to accomplish the decoding of words into their component sounds and thus into

recognizable words. Three types of phonological processes are critical for the

development of basic reading skills: phonological recoding in lexical access, phonetic

recoding to maintain information in working memory, and phonemic awareness (Felton &

Pepper, 1995; Wagner & Torgesen, 1987).

Phonological Recoding in Lexical Access

Phonological recoding in lexical access refers to the process of translating a

written word into its auditory representation by recoding the written symbols into a

sound-based representational system. Assessment of phonological recoding in lexical

access typically is conducted with tasks in which individuals decide whether a string of

letters represents a real word or nonword, or tasks that require rapid naming of objects,

colors, and other kinds of stimuli. Respondents are timed while rapidly naming colors,

objects, or other stimuli.

Naming-speed deficits are predictive of word recognition and oral reading ability

(Wolfe, 1991; Cornwall, 1992) and are viewed as an indicator of severe reading

disabilities (Wagner, Torgesen, & Rashotte, 1999; Wolfe, 1997; Felton, Naylor, & Wood,









1990). In addition to other processes, the rapid naming of colors, numbers, and letters

requires efficient and fluid retrieval of phonological information from long-term memory.

While reading, children must retrieve phonemes associated with letters. The efficiency

with which children are able to retrieve phonological codes associated with individual

phonemes influences the degree to which phonological information is useful in decoding

printed words. Younger children's rapid naming performance for digits and numbers

may be limited by their unfamiliarity with them. Therefore, younger children are asked to

name common colors in rapid naming tasks.

A relationship between reading skills and the ability to name colors, objects,

letters, and digits rapidly has been well documented (Cronin & Carver, 1998; Denckla,

1972; Denckla & Rudel, 1976; Korhonen, 1995). The ability to rapidly name colors was

predictive of reading achievement in kindergarten, and both rapid naming of letters and

colors were significant predictors of reading achievement in first grade (Blachman, 1984).

However, in older children, rapid naming of digits and letters is more predictive of

reading than is rapid naming of colors (Wagner, Torgesen, & Rashotte 1999; Cornwall,

1992). It is possible that weak associations between phonological representations of the

letters and numbers result in the difficulty with retrieval. The processes associated with

naming letters and digits are likely more dependent on these phonological associations

than retrieving an entire word, like a color. Recall, that when naming colors, the child is

actually looking at the color, not a series of letters or digits.

Phonetic Recoding to Maintain Information in Working Memory

Phonetic recoding to maintain information in working memory refers to the

translation of symbols into their sound-based representational system in a fashion that









enables the sounds to be maintained efficiently in working memory during ongoing

processing. Phonetic recoding is thought to be important to the acquisition of beginning

reading (Wagner & Torgesen, 1987). The beginning reader must decode a series of

visually-presented letters, store the sounds associated with the letters in temporary

storage, and blend the contents of the temporary storage to form words. While sounding

out 'car,' the reader must decode it into the individual phonemes 'c-a-r' and store it in

short term memory long enough to blend the phonemes together to form a word. The

ability to code and store the sounds of the letters efficiently allows the beginning reader to

devote more of his or her cognitive resources to the more advanced task of blending the

sounds to form words and comprehending their meaning.

Phonemic Awareness

Phonemic awareness involves the conscious awareness that sentences are

composed of words and that words are composed of phonemes; and the ability to

manipulate those individual sounds (Snider, 1995; Snider, 1997; Wood & Terrell, 1998).

Speech is represented at the phonetic level by the phone (i.e.; a set of speech sounds

found in languages) (Wagner & McBride-Chang, 1996; Wagner & Torgesen, 1987).

Midwestern spoken English can be represented by a total of 45 phonemes (16 vowel and

29 consonant) (Denes & Pinson, 1963 as cited in Wagner & Torgesen, 1987). Letters

within the alphabet usually are associated with more than one phone. Every spoken word

in the English language can be generated by generated by combining these basic sounds

(Wagner, Torgesen, & Rashotte, 1994). Of the nearly infinite number of possible sound

combinations found within a language, only a small percentage are used, and of those

used, they often share common combinations. Knowledge of the phonological structure







7

of words should assist beginning readers in their attempts to master the alphabetic form of

their spoken language. That is, a beginning reader would recognize that 'bat' sounds like

'fat' and, thus, probably shares common letters.

The perceived-sound distinctions (e.g., the sound of the letter t differs in the

words ten and stop) are allophones, related phones that are combined into families called

phonemes. Phonemes represent differences in speech sounds that signal differences in

the meaning of words heard in everyday speech (Wagner & McBride-Chang, 1996).

Phonemic awareness can be tested by having persons count the number of sounds in a

word, reverse the order of sounds in a word, and combine isolated individual sounds to

form a word (Wagner & Torgesen, 1987).

Difficulties with forming precise phonological representations in long-term

memory have been proposed as a possible cause of the phonological weaknesses

characteristic of dyslexia (Elbro, 1998; Fowler, 1991). Distinctness of phonological

representations is referred to as the magnitude of the difference between a representation

and its neighbors (Elbro, 1998). The distinctness hypothesis as it relates to reading

difficulties proposes that children who have severe difficulties in learning the alphabetic

principle in reading possess relatively indistinct phonological representations, or have

other difficulties in accessing distinct phonological representations (Elbro, 1998). The

distinctness of phonological representations influences the speed and accuracy of

different phonological processes.

The distinctness hypothesis suggests that reduced distinctness levels may be a

cause of the well-documented phonological processing difficulties in dyslexia. Dyslexic

adults were found be specifically impaired in their ability to distinctly pronounce target









words when compared with controls (Elbro, Nielsen, & Petersen, 1994). Children were

given several tests of language abilities (i.e., phoneme awareness, syllable awareness,

morpheme awareness, phoneme discrimination, verbal short-term memory, picture

naming, and articulatory fluency), pre-reading abilities, and cognitive ability in

kindergarten (Elbro, Borstrom, & Petersen, 1994). They were tested again at the

beginning of second grade. The language measures in kindergarten were significant

predictors of possible dyslexia. Non-verbal IQ (i.e., Raven's Progressive Matrices) did

not predict later reading problems. The three kindergarten measures found to

independently predict dyslexia were letter knowledge (i.e., naming letters), phoneme

awareness, and distinctness of phonological representation. These studies suggest that the

quality of phonological representations in language may play an important role in the

development of phoneme awareness as it later relates to reading.

Phonemic awareness has different levels or components, some of which are more

difficult than others to master. Five levels of phonemic awareness have been identified

(Adams, 1990; Snider, 1997). The appreciation of sounds in spoken language is the first

and easiest level. The ability to rhyme is associated with later reading ability. A 4-year

longitudinal study found that the degree of awareness of rhyme and alliteration children

acquired before they went to school is associated with their eventual success in learning

to read and spell (Bradley & Bryant, 1983). A positive relationship between the detection

and production of rhyme and early reading also was found in a longitudinal study

(Maclean, Bryant, & Bradley, 1987).

The use of rhyme and alliteration when comparing and contrasting sounds in

words is the second level of phonemic awareness. An ability to group words with similar









or dissimilar sounds at the beginning, middle, or end of a word (e.g., shoe and shirt, rat

and tap, back and rack) displays this skill. The blending of split syllables (i.e., to identify

a word when each syllable is pronounced separately) and splitting complete words

comprises the third level of phonemic awareness. The child must be aware that words

can be divided into their corresponding phonemes, the child must also be familiar with

how the phonemes sound when produced in isolation. Phonemic segmentation, the fourth

level, refers to the ability to isolate individual sounds in syllables (e.g., to pronounce each

separate phoneme in a word). The ability to manipulate phonemes by adding, moving, or

omitting them to make new words (i.e.; remove the 'I' sound from slide to produce *side')

constitutes the fifth and most advanced level of phonemic awareness.

Phoneme manipulation and phoneme segmentation predict beginning reading

acquisition. These skills generally are unattainable by children who have received no

formal reading instruction which adds support for the importance of reading instruction in

the development of phonemic awareness skills (Adams, 1990).

Reading And Its Relationship To Phonological Processing

The cooccurrence of deficits in naming-speed and phonemic awareness has been

found in persons with severe reading disabilities (Wagner, Torgesen, & Rashotte, 1999;

Wolfe, 1997; Felton, Naylor, & Wood, 1990). Phonemic awareness is necessary for

reading and spelling in English because the language is alphabetic (i.e., the letters

represent sounds). The meaning of a word is found when the letters are translated into a

word used in one's vocabulary through a process called decoding (Wagner & Torgesen,

1987; Snider, 1995). The English writing system uses symbols (i.e., letters) to represent

spoken language at its phonological level. The beginning reader must learn that printed









symbols represent units of speech (Crowder, 1982; Snider, 1997). The written word

represents the sounds in the word being read or pronounced but with alterations that often

reflect a word's meaning, for example 'herd' and 'heard' (Crowder, 1982). The most

difficult part of learning to read is learning that printed symbols represent specific

phonemes; a person must become aware of the phonological principles in English.

Phonemic awareness develops at about the time children typically are taught to

read in school (Wagner & Torgesen, 1997). When learning to read, those with phonemic

awareness have a number of advantages over those whose phonemic skills are not well

developed (Wagner & Torgesen, 1987). Also, the process of learning to read new words

involves segmenting the letter string into corresponding units and blending the phonemes

together to pronounce the word. An awareness of phonemes is required before

segmenting the letter strings into phoneme-based units and blending the resulting

phonemes into words. The process of learning to read also may affect the development of

phonological awareness by providing instrumental knowledge of the phonological

structure of language, knowledge that complements one's implicit knowledge acquired

from speaking and listening.

Longitudinal studies found a predictive relationship between phonemic awareness

and later reading ability (Snider, 1997; MacDonald & Cornwall, 1995). Correlations

between kindergarteners' performance on phonological awareness tasks and their word-

reading skills at the end of first grade typically fall in the 0.4 to 0.6 range (Torgesen,

Wagner, & Rashotte, 1994). Phoneme segmentation, the ability to strip the initial

consonant sound, and the ability to substitute the initial consonant sound in kindergarten

predicted reading achievement (i.e., word analysis and reading comprehension subtests)







11

at the end of second grade as measured by the California Achievement Test and Iowa Test

of Basic Skills (Snider, 1997).

Thirty-two, 6-year-old Finnish children were assessed twice: first on entering first

grade for phonemic skills and motivational orientations, and again at the end of first grade

for word reading skills. The ability to delete a syllable from a word (0.51), blend sounds

(0.50), name the initial sound of a word (0.53), delete the initial sound of a word (0.53),

and the combination of the four tasks to form a phonemic awareness score (0.51) was

significantly related (p<.OI) to first-grade word-reading skill (Salonen, Lepola, & Niemi,

1998).

The analytic ability to manipulate phonemes was the strongest determinant of

reading and writing among second-grade Swedish students (Lundberg, Olofsson, & Wall,

1980). Two-hundred children were assessed first in kindergarten, again one year later at

the end of first grade (n= 143), and finally 6 months later at the beginning of second grade.

Children who showed no signs of reading ability in kindergarten also were unable to

manipulate phonemes. The ability to reverse phonemes strongly predicted reading ability.

Thus, reading and spelling achievement of second grade students can be predicted with

some accuracy from knowledge of their phonemic awareness skills before formal reading

instruction.

An eleven-year study of relationships between phonological awareness and

reading and spelling achievement found phonological awareness among Canadian

kindergarten children to predict word identification and spelling skills of teenagers.

Socioeconomic status (SES) and vocabulary development were controlled in the analysis

(MacDonald & Cornwall, 1995). Surprisingly, SES, vocabulary development, word









recognition, and spelling achievement assessed at kindergarten were uncorrelated with

reading and spelling achievement II years later.

Reading Instruction is important to the development of phonological awareness

Longitudinal evidence suggests that phonological awareness (i.e., a broad

awareness of the sound structures in language) and literacy develop as a result of

reciprocal influences (Wagner, Torgesen, & Rashotte, 1994). Furthermore, the

development of alphabetic awareness and phonological awareness is reciprocal (Wagner

et al., 1994; Mc Guinness, Mc Guinness, & Donohue, 1995).

Historically, the nature of the development of phonemic awareness was debated

(Barron, 1991; Wagner & Torgesen, 1987; Wood & Terrell, 1998). Recall that phonemic

awareness is the knowledge of the phonemic structure of words (Snider, 1997; Wagner &

Torgesen, 1987; Wood & Terrell, 1998). A disagreement among scholars centered on

whether phonemic awareness arises as a result of reading instruction or is merely part of

the natural developmcnt of phonological awareness (Wagner & Torgesen, 1987; Wood &

Terrell, 1998).

Adams (1990) stated that children's knowledge of phonemes is highly developed

before to learning to read. She adds that if it were not, children could not produce nor

understand oral language. However, according to Adams, children's knowledge of

phonemes is a working knowledge and not at a conscious level. Phonemic awareness

becomes conscious only when it is taught specifically and in conjunction with the

learning of the alphabetic script. The development of phonemic awareness seems to rely

on a child being in a situation in which the skill is required. That situation occurs when









children learn to read (Adams, 1990). She adds that practice and training are more

important than age and maturation to the development of phonemic awareness.

Research has been conducted with non-readers to determine the direction of the

relationship between the development of phonemic awareness and reading instruction.

The relationship between phonological awareness and the acquisition of reading skills

was studied in illiterate Portuguese adults who had received no reading instruction

(Morais, Cary, Alegria, & Bertelson, 1979). The investigators hypothesized that illiterate

people are unable to perform tasks requiring conscious phonetic analysis if the

improvement in phonemic awareness observed between the ages 5 and 6 is related to

reading instruction. Adult participants were given tasks that involved deleting, adding,

and reversing the order of sounds and syllables in words and non-words. Over half of the

illiterate participants failed every trial presented. In the phoneme addition trials,

participants introduced a new phone at the beginning of each word. The illiterate group

read correctly 46% of the words and 19% of the nonwords. In contrast, the reading group

read correctly 91% of the words and 71% of the nonwords respectively. In the deletion

task, the participants deleted the first sound. The illiterate group was able to correctly

delete the sound 26% of the time for words and 19% for non-words. However, the

literate group correctly deleted the sound 87% of the time for words and 73% of the time

for non-words. These results indicate that phonemic awareness does not arise

spontaneously. Learning to read, regardless of age, requires that phonemic awareness

manifest itself.

Phonemic awareness is present before reading instruction. Lundberg (1991; 1994)

believes the development of phonemic awareness, if solely dependent on reading









instruction, would not exist in preschool, preliterate children. Lundberg reviewed a

subset of nonreaders in a previously collected data set (Lundberg et al., 1980). Nine of

the 51 children could segment phonemes, and four were able to achieve favorable scores

on more complex phoneme-manipulation tasks. In another study, a sample of 387

Scandinavian preschool children correctly completed 75% of the rhyming tasks, 50% of

the syllable segmentation tasks, and 9% of the phonemic awareness activities (Lundberg,

1994). Lundberg suggests these statistics offer evidence that, despite the development of

phonemic awareness being low in preschoolers, the realization that some children are able

to exhibit phonemic ability demonstrates that development of phonemic awareness is not

merely a result of reading instruction. However, these studies did not take into account

instruction provided by parents or exposure to literature in the home environment.

Pre-reading preschool children who show signs of emergent reading ability

demonstrate higher phonemic and phonological awareness skills than their same aged

peers (Bowey, 1994). Emergent reading skills include knowledge of letters, reading

simple words, reading comprehension (Bowey, 1994; Raz & Bryant, 1990). In contrast,

phonemic processing skills involve the ability to correctly receive, interpret, and use

phonological information (Felton & Pepper, 1995). Terrell and Wood (1998) found that

preschool children who received no explicit training in reading exhibit both simple and

complex phonemic awareness. Thirty 3- and 4-year-old native English-speakers with no

formal reading instruction were given phonological tasks. The tasks included sentence

segmentation, syllable/onset-rime/phoneme segmentation, syllable/onset-rime/phoneme

blending, rhyme detection, alliteration tasks, phoneme deletion, and letter-sound

knowledge. Correct responses on measures of simple phonemic awareness (e.g., letter-









sound knowledge) and alliteration detection (e.g., the ability to detect common initial

sounds across words) were 49% and 48% respectively. The children obtained an average

of 25% accuracy on the phoneme deletion task (e.g., a test of complex phonemic

awareness). Lower levels of attainment were exhibited on the phoneme segmentation

task (e.g., splitting words into their phoneme units 13%; phoneme blending 8%). This

evidence supports the contention that simple and complex phonemic awareness may

emerge as a part of the natural development of phonological awareness and without

specific reading instruction.

Reading instruction and phonemic awareness are reciprocal Others propose

reciprocal relationships between phonemic awareness and reading (Barron, 1991 &

Foorman, 1995). Children become sensitive to syllables and subsyllabic phonological

units before they learn to read but the alphabetic reading experience itself may be

necessary to trigger understanding of phonemic units of sound (Bowey, 1994). The

reciprocal relationship between reading and phonemic awareness may reflect the fact that

alphabetic writing systems symbolize a linear phonemic transcription of spoken language.

This relationship creates a paradox: understanding an alphabetic writing system appears

to presuppose sensitivity to phonemes as units of spoken language, but understanding an

alphabetic writing system itself appears to stimulate this insight (Bowey, 1994).

Perfetti, Beck, Bell, and Hughes (1987) found that, although having some

phonemic knowledge is important for beginning reading, the relationship between

phonemic knowledge and learning to read is reciprocal. Barron (1991) suggests that

phonological awareness may emerge only after specific instruction in literacy. The

relationship may be bi-directional. A longitudinal study (Wagner, Torgesen, &









Rashotte, 1994) reported that causal relationships between the development of

phonological processing abilities and the acquisition of reading skills are bi-directional.

Children were assessed annually first in kindergarten and finally in the second grade on

the five previously discussed basic levels of phonological processing (i.e., knowledge of

rhyme, comparing and contrasting sounds in words, blending split syllables, phonemic

segmentation, and phonemic manipulation). There was an interaction between the level

of phonological processing ability and grade, indicating that phonological processing

abilities did not develop at a uniform rate. Their results support the existence of multiple

reading related phonological processing abilities. The researchers believe phonological

awareness is not a unitary homogenous skill but is one that is heterogeneous, with

different forms of phonological awareness being associated with different aspects of

literacy.

Further evidence of a schooling effect was presented by Bentin, Hammer, and

Cahan (1992). They found kindergarten children display some natural development in

their phonological awareness. However, once they attend school their rate of phonemic

awareness increases significantly.

Reading Skills and Their Relationship to Intelligence and Socioeconomic Status

Intellectual ability is the single best predictor of scholastic achievement (Sattler,

1992; Hermstein & Murray, 1994). Furthermore, intelligence has been found to be highly

predictive of reading ability (Carver, 1990; Cornwall, 1992). The Raven Progressive

Matrices and the National Reading Standards (NRS) were used to assess intelligence and

its relationship to reading achievement in 486 second- to twelfth-grade students from a

rural midwestern school system (Carver, 1990). The Raven was chosen because it does









not readily tap a recognized subskill of reading but instead measures abstract reasoning

ability or g. The correlation between the Raven and the NRS ranged from 0.36 to 0.68 in

each of the grades and indicates a strong relationship between intellectual and reading

ability.

In a separate study, the verbal comprehension factor of the Wechsler Intelligence

Scale for Children-Revised (WISC-R) was found to be the best predictor of reading

phonetically regular nonsense words, reading comprehension, spelling, prose passage

speed, reading accuracy scores even when controlling for age and socioeconomic status

among children with reading and spelling disabilities (Cornwall, 1992).

Socioeconomic status (SES) reflects an individual or family's financial resources,

occupation, and educational background. SES is strongly linked to intellectual ability and

achievement, including reading skills. The correlation between a family's SES and

children's intelligence averages about .33 (Sattler, 1992; Andersson, Sommerfelt,

Sonnander, & Ahlsten, 1996). Among five year-olds, family income correlated more

highly with intelligence than did maternal education, ethnicity, and female headship of

the household (Duncan, Brooks-Gunn, & Klebanov, 1994).

Differences in the way children realize and use language within the same context

is related, in part, to the language environment in which they live (Bernstein, 1970).

Children who differ in their access to speech systems or codes may acquire quite different

social and intellectual orientations and procedures despite a common developmental

potential. Bernstein (1970) proposes two fundamental types of linguistic codes,

elaborated and restricted. In elaborated codes, communication is individualized and the

message is specific to a particular situation, topic, or person. Elaborated codes are more









precise, differentiated, and permit an expression of a wider and more complex range of

thought. In restricted codes, language is stereotyped, limited, and condensed, lacking in

specificity and the exactness needed for precise conceptualization, differentiation, and

discrimination. Restricted codes are found predominantly in the social and family

structures of lower-class groups. While restricted codes may promote cohesiveness and

reduce tensions within a group, they do not promote cognitive elaboration. Upper

socioeconomic groups use both restricted and elaborated codes, depending on the context.

Relationships between SES and communication style based on Bernstein's

restricted (i.e., status-oriented) or elaborated (i.e., elaborated and person-oriented) forms

were studied in 163 non-working African American mothers and their 4-year-old children

(Hess & Shipman, 1965; Olim, Hess, & Shipman, 1967). The researchers postulated that

the structure of the social system and the structure of the family shape communication

and language. Language shapes thought and the cognitive styles of problem-solving by

structuring and conditioning what and how a child learns and by setting limits within

which future learning may take place.

The researchers elaborated on the categories proposed by Bernstein and reported

that a mother may use three basic approaches to control and discipline her child:

inhibitory techniques, input-control techniques, or internalizing techniques. Inhibitory

techniques keep a response from recurring or prevent the child from considering

alternative solutions. These inhibitory responses make the child aware of external

sanctions on his or her behavior without weighing alternatives. Input-control techniques

restrict information and alternatives open to a child. Internalizing techniques regulate

behavior by appeals to logical considerations or objective consequences (i.e., If you pull







19

the dog's ears, he will get angry and may bite you). The internalizing approach makes the

child aware that choices are open to him and encourages him to choose wisely and

promotes internal cognitive control.

The researchers divided the women into three groups based on the method used by

the women to control their child's behavior. The status-normative-oriented mother

presented rules in an assigned manner where the only possibility for the child was to

comply (i.e., an uncritical acceptance of the social status). The personal-subjective

techniques took into account the qualities and reactions of the persons involved.

Cognitive-rational techniques appealed to rational principles and the objective

consequences of various alternatives of action. The latter two methods rely heavily on

internalizing techniques for behavioral regulation.

The mothers were categorized into four social status levels: college-educated

professional, executive, and managerial occupations; skilled blue-collar occupational

levels, with no more than a high school education; unskilled or semiskilled occupational

levels, with predominantly elementary-school education; and unskilled or semiskilled

occupations with absent fathers and the family's support coming from public assistance.

These mothers were interviewed in their homes and brought to the university for

testing. The mothers' responses to interview questions were recorded and scored. The

mother was taught three simple tasks by the staff member and was then asked to teach

these tasks to their child. The three tasks were: sort or group a number of plastic toys by

color and function; sort eight blocks by two characteristics simultaneously; teach the child

to copy five designs on an "Etch-a-Sketch" toy.









The children of mothers who used status-normative control techniques generally

performed at a lower cognitive level than children of mothers showing a preference for

person-centered or cognitive-rational techniques. The children were assessed with the

Stanford-Binet (Form L-M), the conceptual style dimensions from the Sigel Conceptual

Sorting Task for Children, and verbal and physical scores from a concept-attainment

block-sorting task. The scores of mothers' with status-normative orientations were

negatively correlated with all measures of the child's ability and positively correlated

with the child's inability to explain the rationale behind his or her decisions for

classification on the Sigel task.

The mothers' language styles were significantly related to her child's performance

on the various cognitive measures. The measures of language style included: mean

sentence length, mean pre-verb length of sentence, verb elaboration, syntactic elaboration,

and abstraction. High maternal language elaboration was associated with stronger

cognitive performance. All language elaboration measures were negatively correlated

with the status-orientation but positively correlated to the personal-subjective and

cognitive-rational orientations. The language measures were negatively related to the

mothers' use of imperatives (i.e., must do this) as opposed to mothers who used

instructions for guiding her child's behavior.

Mothers oriented toward status-normative control using the imperative and

restricted language codes tended to be from among the lower SES groups. Mothers

oriented to personal-subjective or cognitive-rational control, who gave instructions, and

elaborated language styles tended to be from the middle-class group. The researchers









concluded that the nature of the language used by mothers has a significant impact on the

development of her child's cognitive and language skills.

A longitudinal study of 121 children ages three through eight found home

environment, as measured by four subscales (i.e., learning materials, stimulation of

communicative competence, physical environment, and academic stimulation) of the

Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (Caldwell & Bradley, 1978),

and SES to predict children's intelligence most highly (Molfese, DiLalla, & Bunce,

1997). Birth risk factors (i.e., birth complications that resulted in the neonate being

placed in a neonatal intensive care nursery but which, in themselves, were not likely to

produce permanent cognitive impairments) did not predict intelligence at any age after

controlling for home environment and SES.

Kindergarten children from middle SES families were found to have more highly

developed phonological structure than children from low SES families (Wallach,

Wallach, Dozier, & Kaplan, 1977). Group differences on auditory discrimination of

phonemes were not significant. However, when given tasks of phonemic analysis

(choosing a picture whose name starts with the phoneme at issue and indicating whether a

word starts with the phoneme at issue), middle-class students outperformed low SES

children (p <.001).

Socioeconomic status was found to predict reading phonetically regular nonsense

words and the ability to identify words (Cornwall, 1992). Middle-class preschoolers

displayed more advanced pre-reading skills (e.g., print production, print decoding,

literacy, knowledge of environmental print, phonemic awareness, and story

understanding) than preschoolers in lower socioeconomic groups despite both groups









attending "high quality" nursery schools and kindergarten classes (Dickinson & Snow,

1987). African Americans have been found to possess nonstandard phonological,

syntactic, and morphological forms of language (Ratusnkik & Koenigsknecht, 1975).

Among African American preschool children, those from lower SES homes used more

nonstandard phonological and grammatical components of language than did those from

middle SES homes (Ratusnkik & Koenigsknecht, 1975).

Strong links between intellectual ability, academic achievement, and

socioeconomic status have been well established in the literature. Unless intellectual

ability is controlled, the results from studies examining the influence of SES may be

misleading as such data may reflect differences in intelligence. Therefore, the effects of

these influences (i.e., IQ, socioeconomic status, gender, and handedness) were controlled

in the present study.

Although current trends in the literature contend that relationships between

learning to read and phonological processes are bi-directional, none has investigated the

possibility of the influence of a specific biological correlate in the brain for both

phonemic awareness and reading acquisition. Research on relationships between

phonemic awareness and cortical structures in the brains of very young children was not

located.

Brain Development

Importance of Early Stimulation

A number of critical or sensitive periods exist during the first few years of life

during which time the brain demands certain types of input in order to create or stabilize

long-lasting structures. Long-term effects of inadequate nurturing during infancy can be









devastating. The term hospitalism was coined by Spitz (1945) to describe the physical

condition due to long periods of confinement in a hospital, particularly the negative effect

of institutional care during the first months of life.

Infants who lived in a sterile environment with no toys and bleak lighting fared

much worse than infants reared in a penal institution nursery where they continued to

have contact with their mothers. Infants in the sterile environment were handled by

nurses and removed from their cribs only at feeding time. One head nurse and five

assistant nurses cared for 45 babies. In the penal institution nursery, most infants were

fed, nursed, and cared for by their own mothers who were supervised by a head nurse and

three assistants. A follow-up study conducted two years later and supervised by Spitz

(1946) found children who continued to remain in the sterile environment fared poorly in

every area of development. Thirty-seven percent had died. Spitz (1946) reported that the

damage inflicted on the infants by their being deprived of maternal care, stimulation, and

love as well as by their being completely isolated, was irreparable. The developmental

imbalance caused by the unfavorable environmental conditions during the child's first

year produces psychosomatic damage that cannot be repaired by any known interventions

(Spitz, 1946).

Neuroanatomical effects of early sensory deprivation have been studied in

laboratory animals. The development of the brain's visual center connections has been

studied in depth in laboratory animals. Deprivation of form and light during the first

three months of life in kittens led to marked abnormalities, including behavioral

blindness, morphological changes in the lateral geniculate body, and the disruption of

innately-determined cortical connections (Wiesel & Hubel, 1965). Additionally, a









kitten's capacity to recover from the effects of the early visual deprivation behaviorally,

morphologically, or in terms of single cell cortical physiology was severely limited, even

when recovery periods extended over more than one year.

Rats who were reared in environments rich in stimuli were found to have heavier

cerebral cortexes when compared to their littermates raised in an impoverished condition

(Rosenzweig, Krech, Bennett, & Diamond, 1962).

Handedness

The effects of handedness also can impact neuroanatomical development.

Handedness (Harris & Carlson, 1988) refers to the arms and hands being asymmetrical in

use and function so as to reliably favor one hand over the other across a range of skilful

acts (e.g., writing, throwing, using tools). The dominant right-hand preference among the

majority of humans is believed to extend far back in the evolutionary cycle (Annett,

1985). Evidence from ancient tools, weapons, and art suggests that the preference for

using the right hand has existed since the stone-age (Annett, 1985). Historical artifacts

and records suggest left-handers always were in the minority, ranging from only 2% to

15%-- 20% of the population (Harris & Carlson, 1988). At present, approximately 10%

of the population is left-handed, a proportion estimated to have remained stable for the

past 5,000 years (Satz, Soper, & Orsini, 1988).

Although right-handed persons comprise the majority, left-handedness is

disproportionately prevalent among children with reading disabilities (Kinsbourne, 1988).

Left-handedness is more frequent in men, and males comprise the majority of those

diagnosed with autism, dyslexia, stuttering and other developmental disorders

(Geschwind & Galaburda, 1985). The lateralization of language to the left hemisphere









almost always occurs in right-handed individuals. However, the speech pattern in left-

handed individuals is less certain (Harris & Carlson, 1988). The left hemisphere is

lateralized for language in about 60% to 70% of left-handers, with the remaining 30% to

40% being lateralized rightward or bilaterally (Harris & Carlson, 1988).

Human Brain Volume

The human brain reaches its maximum size in the late teens (Caviness, Kennedy,

Bates, and Makris, 1997; Dekaban & Sadowsky, 1978). The increase in brain volume

does not occur in a linear fashion. The rate of growth is fastest during fetal and early

postnatal life. The brain weighs approximately 100 g at 20 weeks gestation and 400 g at

birth. At 18 months, the brain is 800 g, a figure 60% of its projected weight of 1100 g at

age 3; at age 3 years, this weight is 80% of its projected adult size (Lemire, Loeser,

Leech, & Alvord, 1975). The brain is approximately 95% of its adult size by age five

(Dekabani, 1977; Dekaban & Sadowsky, 1978). At age five, the rate of brain growth

slows (Dekaban & Sadowsky, 1978). The brain prunes its weakest and unutilized

synapses throughout its development.

Male and Female Brain Differences

Brain weight is greater in males than females at all ages (Dekaban & Sadowsky,

1978). The brain volume of female children is approximately 93% of male children of

the same age (Caviness et al., 1997). Absolute cerebral volume is approximately 10%

larger in boys than girls but the relative proportion of tissue and fluid volumes is similar

(Reiss, Abrams, Singer, Ross, Denckla, 1996). This difference in total cerebrum size

between male and female children was significant after controlling for height and weight

(Giedd, 1997; Geidd et al., 1996). This difference in volume of the whole brain is









uniformly scaled among the major brain regions: cerebrum, cerebellum, and the brain

stem (Caviness et al., 1997).

Some brain regions have been found to not follow the aforementioned

proportional differences between genders. Gender differences in the temporale lobe size

were not significant when adjusted for total cerebral volume (Giedd et al., 1996; Giedd et

al., 1997). The caudate, hippocampus, and pallidium areas are similar in size in both

genders. Intelligence increases with larger volume to a point, reaches an asymptote, and

seemingly decreases with the largest cerebral volumes (Reiss et al., 1996).

A post-mortem study of 10 males and 11 females aged 46 to 92 found the volume

in language-associated cortical regions to be larger in females than males (Harasty,

Double, Halliday, Kril, & McRitchie, 1997). Compared to males, females had

significantly smaller brains but similar sized language-associated brain regions. The

proportion of the total brain occupied by the left and right homologue of Broca's area was

20% larger in females than males. The left and right superior temporal gyri occupied

18% more of the total brain in females than in males. The planum temporale, the

posterior language-associated subsection of the superior temporal gyrus, was 30% larger

in females. A gender-associated difference in volume fraction was not observed in either

Heschl's gyrus, which is associated with hearing, or the anterior superior temporal gyrus.

The authors (Harasty, Double, Halliday, Kril, & McRitchie, 1997) concluded the planum

temporale accounts for most of the increased volume fraction of the superior temporal

gyrus in the female brain. Compared to males of similar age, the left planum temporale

in females between ages 3 and 14 is larger than the right (Preis, Jancke, Schmitz-

Hillebrecht, & Steinmetz, 1999).







27

Gender is associated with an increased total brain volume in males and with larger

planum temporale volumes in females. Due to the literature suggesting gender

influences total brain volume and the size of the planum temporale, gender was controlled

in the analyses.

The Temporal Lobe

The temporal lobes, the most lateral and ventral aspects of the cerebral cortex, lie

between the lateral sulcus and the collateral sulcus (Haines & Mihailoff, 1997).


















Figure 1. The four hemispheres of the cerebral cortex.


The gyri that form the temporal lobe begin at the sylvian fissure and consist of the

superior temporal gyms, medial temporal gyrus, and the inferior temporal gyrus. The

occipitotemporal gyri, a broad area of cortex that extends from the temporal pole to the

occipital pole, is on the ventral side. The superior temporal sulcus terminates in the

cortex and forms the angular gyms of the inferior parietal lobe.











Angular Gyrus


Temporal Pole
Superior Temporal Gyrus
Medial Temporal Gyus
inferior Temporal Gyrus


Figure 2. Major anatomical landmarks in the human brain.


The transverse temporal gyri of Heschl, or Heschl's gyms, is found on the upper

edge of the temporal lobe and extends into the lateral fissure (i.e., the sylvian fissure).

The primary auditory cortex is located in Heschl's gyms. Heschl's gyms is deep within

the lateral sylvian fissure, covered by parts of the frontal and parietal opercula, and

continues into the superior temporal gyms. The smooth area caudal to Heschl's gyrus is

the planum temporale, that usually is larger in the left than the right hemisphere.

The gestational development of the temporal lobe was studied in 207 fetal brains

(Dooling, Chi, & Gilles,1983). The sample included approximately equal numbers of

male and female brains and excluded brains with obvious malformations, large









RIGHT HEMISPHERE
Planumn Temporale


Sylvian Fissure

LEFT HEMISPHERE


Figure 3. Axial view of heschl's gyrus and the planum temporale.


Figure 4. Cutaway view with parietal opercula opened to reveal Heschl's gyrus and the

planum temporale.


hemorrhagic or necrotic areas, or architectural distortion. The gestational age of a

structure's appearance was determined when 25 to 50% of the brains in a particular age

group contained the structure.











Heschl's Gyrus Posterior Ascending Ramus
~Planum Temporale


Posterior Descending Rmnus



Figure 5. Schematic of Heschl's gyms, the planum temporale, and the posterior

ascending ramus and posterior descending ramus.


The lateral surface of the temporal lobe remains smooth until 23 weeks at which

time the superior temporal gyms is delimited to in the middle posterior part superiorly.

The superior temporal sulcus is generally recognizable earlier on the right side than on the

left. At 26 weeks gestation, the middle temporal sulcus delineates the middle temporal

gyms. Between 34 and 35 weeks, the secondary sulcation and gyration of the superior

and middle temporal gyri occur. Right-left asymmetry of Heschl's gyrus also occurs

during this period (Dooling, Chi, & Gilles,1983). Heschl's gyms is the gyms medial to a

distinct furrow in the medial surface of the superior temporal gyrus of the sylvian fissure.

The furrow extends posteriorly and medially until its terminal junction with the posterior

end of the insula. This gyms appears at about 31 weeks and is asymmetric. The Heschl's

gyms typically is recognized one to two weeks earlier on the right side. However, the

gyms appears at about the same time in both hemispheres in approximately one-third of

the fetuses. The gyrus extends more rostrally in the right and more caudally in the left.

Differences also appear in angulation of the gyri. The left Heschl's gyms is shorter in

height and runs a more obtuse angle to the anterior-posterior axis of the brain. Because









the sylvian fissure is longer in its anterior-posterior extent in the left hemisphere, the

planum temporale (e.g., the superior temporal surface area posterior to Heschl's gyms)

also is more extensive in the left hemisphere. The difference in the length of the planum

temporale becomes more striking as the fetus matures. In addition, after 36 weeks

gestation, secondary transverse temporal gyri appear. In 54% of the brains examined, two

Heschl's gyri appear in the right and one in the left hemisphere. The findings were

reversed in 18% (i.e.; there were two Heschl's gyri on the left and one on the right). The

remaining 28% had an equal number of gyri on both sides. No gender differences in the

number of Heschl's gyri or the area of the planum temporale were observed.

Structures Related to Phonemic Awareness

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has been used to determine the

areas of cortical activation used to actively and passively listen to words and tone

sequences. A goal of this research was to determine whether these activation responses

represent processing at auditory or linguistic levels (Binder, Frost, Hammeke, Rao, &

Cox, 1996). Passive stimulation with words or tones resulted in widespread activation of

the superior temporal gyrus including the planum temporale. Thus, the superior temporal

gyms is engaged actively in auditory processing of words and tones. Four areas were

activated more by the word than tone tasks during active listening: the superior temporal

gyrus (the sulcus that has a role in multimodal integration of sensory information and

middle temporal gyms), posterior inferior temporal gyms, angular gyms, and lateral

frontal lobe. No change associated with words was located in the planum temporale or

planum parietal in either the active or passive conditions. One possible explanation for









this lack of activation may be that the words presented were not novel and required less

blood flow to process than would novel words.

The networks associated with auditory processing of language were studied using

four stimulus types and fMRI (Friederici, Meyer, & von Cramon, 2000). Participants

were presented with normal speech (i.e., function and content words), syntactic speech

(i.e., function words and pseudowords), and two word-list conditions (i.e., function words

and pseudo words). The presentation of all four stimuli types stimulated Heschl's gyrus

bilaterally, the left and right planum temporale, and lateral segments of the midportion of

the temporal gyms. A main effect for hemisphere was found in the posterior portion of

the superior temporal gyrus (i.e., the planum temporale and Heschl's gyms) indicating the

dominance of the left hemisphere in auditory language comprehension. Furthermore, the

sentence tasks elicited more activation than the word list condition in the posterior

portion of the superior temporal gyrus. The anterior portion of the superior temporal

gyms (i.e., planum polare) was activated bilaterally in both sentence conditions. The

frontal operculum was activated bilaterally in the syntactic speech condition. Minimal

activation was exhibited during the normal speech condition. The researchers concluded

that the frontal areas are involved actively only when the brain is presented with syntactic

information in unusual circumstances, which is consistent with the findings of the Binder

et al. (1996) study.

Diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging was used to study the

microstmctural integrity of white matter in adults with poor and normal reading ability

(Klingberg, Hedehus, Temple, Salz, Gabrieli, Moseley, & Poldrack, 2000). Diffusion

tensor imaging (DTI) allows measurement of anisotropy. Increased myelination is







33

associated with greater anisotropy. Poor readers showed significantly lower anisotropy in

the white matter of the temporo-parietal region. A significant correlation between Word

Identification and Word Attack scores and a mean anisotropy within the left temporo-

parietal volumes of interest (VOI) was found. The researchers concluded that white

matter underlying the left temporo-parietal cortex plays a critical role in reading ability.

Brain structures associated with auditory processing are discussed by Leonard,

Voeller, Lombardino, Morris, Hynd, Alexander, Anderson, Garofalakis, Honeyman, Mao,

Agee, and Staab (1993):

The cortical structures devoted to auditory processing are found in the temporal

bank of the sylvian fissure. Heschl's gyrus receives the ascending auditory

projections from the medial geniculate and relays them to the secondary auditory

cortex of the planum temporale and superior temporal gyrus. This is a site where

auditory phonemes could be mapped into visual graphemes relayed from parieto-

occipital cortex (p. 461).

Language dysfunction occurs almost exclusively when lesions are on the left side.

This puzzled scientists for many years as there are no obvious anatomical differences and

very few physical asymmetries between the two hemispheres (Annett, 1985). However,

the planum temporale, an area associated with auditory processing, was found to be

asymmetrical between hemispheres. The planum temporale is located in the superior

inner margin of the temporal lobe (Annett, 1985). The area of the left planum temporale

that incorporates the auditory association cortex and is central to language comprehension

typically is larger than in the right planum temporale (Best, 1988). The left planum

temporale was found to be longer in 65 out of 100 post-mortem brains (Geschwind &









Levitsky, 1968). The planum generally was one-third larger on the left than on the right

side. However, the planum was longer on the right side in 11 of the 100 brains, and both

hemispheres were the same length in 24 brains.

Leftward asymmetry of the planum temporale was found in individuals whose

language functions are lateralized to the left hemisphere (Foundas, Leonard, Gilmore,

Fennell, & Heilman, 1994). Twelve participants underwent selective right- and left-

hemispheric anesthesia (Wada testing) and a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan.

The planum temporale was longer on the left in all right-handed persons. In addition,

language ability of the 11 right-handed persons was based in the left hemisphere as

demonstrated by the Wada procedure. The one left-hander had a rightward asymmetry of

the planum temporale and had language lateralized to the right hemisphere as determined

by the Wada procedure.

The asymmetry of the perisylvian areas was measured in a group of male children

with language impairments (Plante, Swisher, Vance, & Rapcsak, 1991). The perisylvian

area as measured in the study contains portions of the frontal and parietal operculae,

superior temporal gyrus, and the planum temporale. Six out of eight (75%) of the

language impaired boys had symmetry or rightward asymmetry of the perisylvian area.

This left to right ratio was significantly different from non-language impaired controls.

The authors concluded that atypical perisylvian configuration may be a neuroanatomical

marker common to a range of disorders that include inadequate language skills.

Asymmetry in the horizontal planum temporale contributed significantly to the

prediction of phonemic awareness (Leonard, Lombardino, Mercado, Browd, Breier, &

Agee, 1996). Forty normal children between the ages of 5 and 12 were recruited from the









community to participate. The children were given an MRI and their brain structures

were measured using a specialized computer program. Leftward asymmetry of horizontal

planum was elevated in children under age 10 who had well-developed phonemic

awareness. Horizontal asymmetry of the planum predicted the ability to manipulate

phonemes independent of age, as measured by the Lindamood Auditory

Conceptualization Test (LAC). The sizes of the horizontal and vertical planum, when

combined, were equivalent in all three age groups. Asymmetry of the total planum was

elevated in children ages 10 to 12. The absence of a relationship between improvements

in phonemic awareness and changes in the vertical planum between ages 5 and 12

provides support for the hypothesis that only the horizontal bank of the planum is related

to language skill.

Furthermore, a cross-sectional study of 61 normal right-handed children between

ages 3 and 14 found the length of the planum and parietal asymmetry to be unrelated to

age (Preis, Jancke, Schmitz-Hillebrecht, & Steinmetz, 1999). In this study MRI data

showed no change in the planum temporale or planum parietal asymmetry with increasing

age or brain volume. The authors concluded that the lack of evidence for age-related

changes in human planum temporale asymmetry adds support for the development of the

planum temporale following its evolutionary course that precedes and prepares it for the

development of language.

Attempts to combine phonemes into words and to select entire word-forms are

disrupted when the posterior persylvian sector is damaged (Damasio & Damasio, 1992).

Persons with posterior persylvian damage may be unable to express certain words or form

them properly (e.g., they may say loliphant for elephant). They also may substitute a







36

pronoun or general word for a more specific and descriptive one (e.g. people for woman)

or use a word semantically related to the idea they intend to express (e.g. headman for

president). Systems associated with the posterior persylvian sector are believed to store

the auditory and kinesthetic records of phonemes and the phoneme sequences that

constitute words.

Although studies have linked phonemic awareness to later reading ability and to

the planum temporale, studies that focused solely on relationships between phonemic

awareness and the planum temporale in the brain prior to or during the beginning stages

of formal reading instruction could not be located. As previously noted, phonemic

awareness and reading acquisition may be reciprocal in their development (Adams, 1990;

Barron, 1991; Foorman, 1995; Perfetti, Beck, & Hughes, 1987). Phonemic awareness is

observed in young children before they receive any formal reading instruction while more

advanced levels of phonological and phonemic awareness are observed in children with

emergent reading skills than those with lower skill levels (Bowey, 1994). Based on

previous research (Leonard et al., 1996), leftward planar asymmetry is expected to be

more highly developed in children who display more advanced levels of phonemic

awareness and emergent reading than children who display lower development in these

two skills. This study proposes to investigate these relationships in young readers.

Young children eventually may be screened for neurobiological indicators

indicative of reading disorders prior to their manifestation. If a predisposition for a

reading disorder is recognized anatomically, children could receive intensive primary

intervention that reduces the emerging reading disorders. Specific remediation









techniques might be developed and used, based on the location of the neurobiological

indicator.

Based on the aforementioned evidence, children between the ages of 5 and 6 who

receive little or no training in reading may be expected to display a basic level of

phonemic awareness. A schooling effect has been reported (Bentin et al., 1992) wherein

children's phonemic ability increased above their estimated developmental levels within a

brief period of time after beginning reading training. Evidence that pre-literate

preschoolers possess some simple and complex phonological and phonemic awareness

skills (Lundberg, 1994) indicates that the cortical anatomy associated with these skills is

likely to be developed already or is forming before formal reading instruction.

Traditionally, children were thought to begin developing phonemic awareness between

ages 5 and 6 along with the beginning of formal reading instruction in schools.

Taking the aforementioned evidence into consideration, the brain regions

associated with these skills are expected to be at a beginning stage of development, ready

and waiting for reading instruction. Based on this assumption, 5 and 6 year-old children

should display varying degrees of leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum

temporale. The degree of asymmetry will be positively related to the level of phonemic

awareness. A finding of varying degrees of leftward asymmetry would lend support to

the bi-directional hypothesis that phonemic awareness and reading development are

reciprocal. Further support for the bi-directional hypothesis would be provided if those

students possessing elevated emergent reading skills and strong rapid naming skills

possess leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale.









The goal of this research is to yield further insight into the biological influences

on learning to read.

Research Questions for Investigation

Research Question I

The area of the planum temporale typically is larger in the left hemisphere than in

the right hemisphere (Best, 1988; Geschwind & Levitsky, 1968). In contrast, children

with language impairments demonstrate symmetry or rightward asymmetry of the

perisylvian area, one that includes the planum temporale (Plante, et al., 1991). Leftward

asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale contributes significantly to the prediction

of phonemic awareness (Leonard et al., 1996). Thus, the following research question will

be investigated: Is the leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale positively

with phonemic awareness skills in young children?

Evidence relevant to Research Question 1

Hypothesis testing associated with research question 1 would be supported

leftward horizontal planar asymmetry is associated positively with the three measures of

phonemic awareness. Research question 1 would not be supported if there is no

relationship found between the three phonemic awareness hypotheses and the horizontal

planum temporale, or the relationship is negative.

Research Question 2

As previously mentioned, the area of the planum temporale typically is larger in

the left than the right hemisphere (Best, 1988; Geschwind & Levitsky, 1968). In contrast,

children with language impairments demonstrate symmetry or rightward asymmetry of

the perisylvian area that includes the planum temporale, (Plante, et al., 1991). Leftward







39

asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale contributes significantly to the prediction

of phonemic awareness (Leonard et al., 1996). Phonemic awareness is predictive of later

reading ability (Lundberg et al., 1980; MacDonald & Cornwall, 1995; Salonen et al.,

1998; Snider, 1997; Torgesen et al., 1994). The relationship between reading instruction

and phonemic awareness is bi-directional (Barron, 1991; Bentin et al., 1992; Foorman,

1995; Perfetti et al., 1987; Wagner et al., 1997). Studies focusing on relationships

between leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale and reading

achievement could not be located in the literature. Because of the association between

phonemic awareness and later reading ability, the following research question was

created: Is leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale associated positively

with emergent reading skills in young children?

Evidence relevant to Research Question 2

Hypothesis testing associated with research question 2 would be supported if

leftward horizontal planar asymmetry is related positively with the four measures of

emergent reading skills. Research question 2 would not be supported if no relationship or

a negative relationship is found between leftward horizontal planar asymmetry and the

four subhypotheses.

Research Question 3

As previously noted, the area of the planum temporale typically is larger in the left

than the right hemisphere (Best, 1988; Geschwind & Levitsky, 1968). In contrast,

children with language impairments demonstrate symmetry or rightward asymmetry of

the perisylvian area which includes the planum temporale, (Plante, et al., 1991).

Phonological recoding in lexical access (i.e., the process of translating a written word into







40

its auditory referent by recoding the written symbols into a sound-based representational

system) is one of the three previously mentioned types of phonological processing (i.e.,

phonological recoding in lexical access, phonetic recoding to maintain information in

working memory, and phonemic awareness).

The rapid naming of colors, numbers, and letters requires efficient and fluid

retrieval of phonological information from long-term memory, and is a measure of

phonological recoding in lexical access. The efficiency with which children are able to

retrieve phonological codes associated with individual phonemes influences the degree to

which phonological information is available when decoding printed words. The

cooccurrence of deficits in naming-speed and phonemic awareness has been found in

persons with severe reading disabilities (Wagner et al., 1999). Leftward asymmetry of the

horizontal planum temporale contributes to the prediction of phonemic awareness

(Leonard et al., 1996), one area of phonological processing. Information regarding

relationships between the horizontal planum temporale and naming-speed was not located

in the literature.

The following research question will be investigated: Is the leftward asymmetry

of the horizontal planum temporale related positively with phonological recoding in

lexical access as measured by the rapid naming tasks?

Evidence relevant to Research Question 3

Hypothesis testing associated with research question 3 will be supported if

leftward horizontal planar asymmetry correlates with the three rapid naming hypotheses

measuring phonological recoding in lexical access. Research question 3 will not be

supported if the relationship between leftward planar asymmetry and the three rapid







41

naming hypotheses measuring phonological recoding in lexical access is not significant or

is negative.
















CHAPTER 3
METHOD

Participants

The participants were 58 normal 5- to 7-year-old children (5.1 to 7.2 years) who

had not yet entered the first grade. This age range was chosen because of the following

five conditions. Five year-olds are able to lie still without anesthesia. This age is the first

stage for the acquisition of metalinguistic skills (Adams, 1990). Developmental changes

in the brain are likely between ages five and seven (Leonard, Lombardino, Mercado,

Browd, Breier, Agee, 1996).

Prior studies that focus on very young children, the development of phonemic

awareness, and its relationship to brain development could not be located. Dramatic

improvement in some language skills occurs within this age range (Adams, 1990).

The children were balanced by gender. Participants were recruited from the

community in Alachua County, Florida via the University of Florida Laboratory School,

P.K. Yonge, the public schools, advertisements in the local newspaper, and local church

groups. An attempt was made to draw participants from racially and economically

diverse population. Parents provided information on race and socioeconomic status.

Children from varying races and socioeconomic backgrounds were recruited. The

children and their parents signed informed consent forms after the purpose and risks of

the study were explained. These children were screened for head injury, language

disability, a history of family psychiatric illness, hearing, and intelligence prior to being

42







43

included in the study. The use of normal participants historically was somewhat unusual

in MRI studies but is becoming more common. Most earlier MRI studies used scans of

patients who were screened to aid in clinical diagnosis of a disorder that was

subsequently found to be not present.

Instrumentation

Test Battery

All tests, except where explicitly stated, were administered by trained graduate

research assistants in speech pathology or school psychology.

Handedness

Tests of handedness were administered on the day the child was scanned by

trained undergraduate research assistants. The children were asked to write or draw, and

their writing hand was recorded. A performance battery modified from the Edinburgh

battery (Oldfield, 1971) was used to measure hand preference, and the peg-moving test

was be used to measure hand skill. The handedness questionnaire was turned into a

performance inventory because asking children about their hand preference may not

accurately reflect their behavior. Performance with an actual object was assessed. For

each item the subject was observed always (right or left), usually (right or left), or either.

Responses of either received zero points, always right two points, and usually right one

point. Responses of always left received negative two points and usually left received

negative one point. The sum was divided by the number of questions observed (some

children did not know how to perform some of the items, like light a match) times two

because two is the total number of possible points per item. If the quotient was above

0.75 they are considered strongly right handed and if it was below -0.75, they were









strongly left handed. Participants were classed as right-handed if they wrote with their

right hand and had a quotient of .75 or greater. All others were classed as non-right (see

Tables 5, 10, and 16).

Socioeconomic Status

Socioeconomic status was calculated using the Hollingshead four factor index of

social status (Hollingshead, 1975). Information on parent education and occupation was

obtained and rated on a scale of one to seven and one to nine respectively. If the child

came from a single-parent household or a single-earner household, the score was

calculated using the working parent's occupation. However, if both parents worked, the

scores were added together and then averaged.

Phonemic Awareness

Two measures of phoneme manipulation were chosen to increase construct

validity of research question 2 (Cook & Campbell, 1979). The Lindamood Auditory

Conceptualization test (LAC) and the Elision test were chosen as measures of phoneme

manipulation. The LAC uses blocks to represent sounds and the participant manipulates

the blocks to represent speech sounds provided by the examiner. The Elision test is

presented in the form of a word game where the child verbally manipulates the sounds.

The Incomplete Words test was chosen as a task of phoneme closure, which provided a

measure of another aspect of phonemic awareness. The assessment measures are

described fully in the following paragraphs.

The Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization test (LAC), an individually

administered test, was designed to evaluate children's ability to discriminate speech

sounds as well as to perceive the number and order of sounds within a spoken pattern.









The LAC measures phonological awareness and phonetic recoding in working memory.

The test is designed for use with children in Kindergarten through 12th grade to aid in the

identification of auditory perceptual deficiencies. The standardization sample was 660

Kindergarten through 12th-grade boys and girls from a large heterogeneous California

school district. Alternate-form reliability is high (r=-.96). No information is available

about within-grade reliabilities. Correlations between the combined reading and spelling

subtests of the Wide Range Achievement Test and the LAC range from .66 to .81 with a

median of .75 (Sattler, 1992). After 6th grade, participants are expected to score between

99 and 100.

The Elision task from Torgesen's unpublished battery of phonemic awareness

tasks was given (Torgesen, 1993). Wagner, Torgesen, and Rashotte (1999) recently

published a battery of phonological processing which contains a nearly identical version

of the Elision task used in the current study. The test's 25 items require the participants

to manipulate word segments and phonemes by omitting and deleting them to make new

words. The Elision task measures phonological awareness and phonetic recoding in

working memory. As previously mentioned, as children develop, they demonstrate

awareness for increasingly smaller units of speech. Performance on the Elision task

correlates with later reading achievement after controlling for IQ. Reliability information

for the specific task administered is not available. The test-retest reliability coefficient

for the recently published (Wagner et al., 1999) Elision task for children between five and

seven years of age is high (r = .88).

The Incomplete Words subtest from the Woodcock-Johnson Psychoeducational

Battery-Revised was given (Woodcock & Johnson, 1989). This subtest measures







46

auditory closure, or the ability to identify a word when provided only some of the sounds

within it. This test is presented with a tape player and progresses in difficulty from words

missing single phonemes to words missing multiple phonemes.

Rapid naming

The Rapid Automatic Naming Task (RANT) is an additional measure of

phonological processing, specifically, phonological recoding in lexical access. The rapid

naming of colors, numbers, and letters requires efficient retrieval of phonological

information from long-term memory. While reading, children must retrieve phonemes

associated with letters in an efficient and fluent fashion. The efficiency with which

children are able to retrieve phonological codes associated with individual phonemes

should influence the degree to which phonological information is useful when decoding

printed words. The ability of younger children to rapidly name may be limited given their

unfamiliarity with digits and numbers. Younger children are asked to name common

colors because rapid naming tasks should be designed to measure differences in the rate

of naming familiar qualities, not differences in the familiarity of things to be named.

However, rapid naming of digits and letters is more predictive of reading than is rapid

naming of colors (Wagner, Torgesen, & Rashotte 1999). The ability to name colors,

numbers, and letters rapidly has been associated with reading achievement (Blachman,

1984; Cronin & Carver, 1998). The ability to rapidly name colors was predictive of

reading achievement in kindergarten, and rapid naming of letters and colors were

significant predictors of reading achievement in first grade (Blachman, 1984).

A set of colors, uppercase letters, and numbers were presented on laminated 8" by

10" cards were presented to the child who was told to name the items as quickly as he or









she could. Prior to the timed trial, the child is tested to determine whether he or she knew

the colors, letters, and numbers being presented. If the child did not know the colors,

letters, or digits presented on the card, the trial for the unknown items was omitted. The

amount of time required for each type of stimulus was recorded.

Reliability information for the particular items administered is not available.

However, Wagner, Torgesen, and Rashotte's (1999) recently published battery of

phonological processing which contains a nearly identical version of the Rapid Automatic

Naming task used in the current study. The test-retest reliability coefficients for the

Rapid Naming task for Color (r = .78), Digits (r = .91), and Letters (r = .97) are high.

Emergent Reading Measures

The relationship between reading instruction and phonemic awareness is bi-

directional (Barron, 1991; Bentin et al., 1992; Foorman, 1995; Perfetti et al., 1987;

Wagner et al., 1997) and phonemic awareness skills are predictive of later reading ability

(Lundberg et al., 1980; MacDonald & Cornwall, 1995; Salonen et al., 1998; Snider, 1997;

Torgesen et al., 1994). The Letter-Word Identification, Word Attack, Passage

Comprehension, and Early Reading Screening Inventory were chosen to measure various

aspects of reading achievement and reduce the threat of construct underrepresentation

(Cook & Campbell, 1979). The battery includes a test of letter and sight word

identification, reading comprehension, an inventory of basic reading skills, and a

nonsense word reading task. These tasks were selected as they represent age appropriate

measures of reading skill.

The Early Reading Screening Inventory (ERSI) was administered to assess basic

reading skills (Lombardino, Morris, Mercado, Defillipio, Sarisky, & Montgomery, 1999).









The ERSI consists of four subtests, Alphabet Knowledge, Concept of Word, Invented

Spelling, and Word Recognition. The Alphabet Knowledge subtest measures a child's

skills in naming visually presented upper and lower case letters and the ability to write the

letters when they are presented orally. The Concept of Word subtest requires the child to

identify a word in the context of a story. Invented Spelling requires the child to spell 12

words, which consist of three or four phonemes. The Word Recognition subtest assesses

a child's ability to read 20 consonant-vowel-consonant words. The four subtests are

combined to provide an index of reading skill. The maximum score is 40.

The Word Attack, Letter-Word Identification, and Passage Comprehension

subtests from the Woodcock-Johnson Psychoeducational Battery-Revised (WJ-R) were

used to test reading skills and performance (Woodcock & Johnson, 1989). The Word

Attack and Letter-Word Identification subtests also are considered indices of phonemic

awareness.

The WJ-R was normed with 6359 participants in over 100 geographically diverse

US communities. Participants were selected randomly within a stratified sampling design

that was consistent with the population distribution of the 1980 census. Items selected for

inclusion in the measure were chosen through expert opinion and ultimately validity

studies. The correlations of achievement measures to other measures of achievement are

typically .60 and .70 at the age 9 and 17 levels. Raw scores on each subset were

converted to standard scores.

The Word Attack subtest measures the ability to apply phonemic and structural

analysis skills when pronouncing phonetically regular nonsense words. All nonsense

words follow the patterns of regular English pronunciation and spelling. To decode the







49

word, a student must remember the phoneme associated with each sound and then blend

or synthesize the phonemes into a word. The successful identification of the

multisyllabic nonsense words requires increased knowledge of word structure. The split-

half reliability of the Word Attack subtest is .91.

Letter-Word Identification measures the ability to identify letters and words. The

items progress from rebuses, to individual letters, to high frequency words, to words that

appear less frequently in written English. The split-half reliability of the Letter-Word

Identification subtest is .91.

Passage Comprehension measures an individual's ability to use syntactic and

semantic clues to identify a key word missing from a passage. The split-half reliability

of the Passage Comprehension subtest is .90.

Intellectual Ability

The Woodcock-Johnson Revised Standard Cognitive Battery was administered to

ensure that the participants had normal intelligence. The WJ-R Cognitive Standard

Battery is comprised of seven subtests: Memory for Names, Memory for Sentences,

Visual Matching, Incomplete Words, Visual Closure, Picture Vocabulary, and Analysis-

Synthesis. The WJ-R Cognitive Battery was normed with 6,359 participants in over 100

geographically diverse US communities. Participants were selected randomly within a

stratified sampling design that was consistent with the population distribution of the 1980

census. Items selected for inclusion in the measure were chosen through expert opinion

and ultimately validity studies. In general, the split-half reliability of the individual

subtests is quite high (e.g., the high .80s and low .90s). The correlations between the

Broad Cognitive Cluster and other measures of cognitive ability (e.g., Kaufman







50

Assessment Battery for Children, Stanford-Binet IV, and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale

for Children -I1) typically are in the .60 to the .70 range.

MRI Scan

Two scan sequences were performed in a Siemens I Tesla Magnetom using a

quadrature head coil: (1) a gradient echo volumetric acquisition "Turboflash" MP Rage

sequence that is transferred into a volumetric gapless series of 128 1.25-mm thick images

in the sagittal plane; and (2) a traditional axial scan of 5-mm T2 spin and density

weighted images separated by 2.5 mm gaps. No gaps exist in the volumetric data from

the gradient echo scan. Thus, the data can be reconstructed into a set of images in any

plane. The images were transferred to a computer workstation, where they were

displayed and analyzed with programs written in PV Wave.

MRI and Children

Giedd (1997) discusses methodological issues pertinent to pediatric magnetic

resonance Imaging (MRI) of the brain:

MR imaging uses no ionizing radiation, it offers the capacity to acquire images in

any plane of view with excellent spatial resolution, and it provides a good contrast

between gray matter, white matter, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). As opposed to

conventional radiography and CT, which rely solely in radiograph patency, MR

imaging can assess a variety of tissue characteristics, and it can be used to

visualize structures such as temporal lobes, frontal lobes, and posterior fossa,

which are often obscured by bone interference on CT scans. These characteristics

make MR imaging the imaging modality of choice for pediatric neuroimaging

studies. (p. 265).









Brain Measurements

A standard set of measurements was obtained for each brain. A mouse was used

to trace the length in millimeters (mm) of the structure on every volumetric section.

These measurements then were averaged in order to obtain a mean, standard deviation,

and the degree of asymmetry. The total surface area of the structure was determined by

multiplying the length by the section thickness (i.e., recall that the MRI data are

transferred into 1.25 mm thick images). The total brain volume of each child's brain was

determined and was reported in cubic millimeters. The surface area of the horizontal

planum temporale was traced on consecutive sagittal images. The horizontal and vertical

(ascending) banks of the planum temporale were measured separately. The degree of

asymmetry between the horizontal planum temporale measurements of the right and left

hemispheres was determined and reported as a coefficient. The formula for determining

the planar asymmetry coefficient is: (l-r) / ((I + r)/2).








4ff









Figure 6. Sagittal Image of the Human Brain Outlining the Horizontal
Branch of the Planum Temporale.









Table I

Areas Assessed and Instruments Used


Assessment
Area Instrumentation Unit of Measure


Quotient
Handedness Modified Edinburgh Battery (.75 > Right Handed)
(.75 < Non-Right)


Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization Total Score
Test (Maximum = 100)
Phonemic (LAC)
Awareness Total Score
Elision Task (Maximum = 25)

Standard Score
Incomplete Words


Word Attack Standard Score

Emergent Letter-Word Identification Standard Score
Reading
Passage Comprehension Standard Score

Early Reading Screening Inventory (ERSI) Total Score (Maximum
= 40)


Rapid Automatic Naming Task (RANT)

Rapid Naming Colors Time in Seconds

Letters Time in Seconds

Digits Time in Seconds

Woodcock-Johnson Psychoeducational
Intellectual Battery-Revised, Tests of Cognitive Standard Score
Ability Ability, Standard Battery









Statistical Analyses

Descriptive Statistics and Reliability

The descriptive statistics were determined for all data sets. Reliability estimates

for the brain measurements were calculated using a product moment correlation.

Hypothesis Testing

Recall that the three broad research questions are as follows: 1) Is the leftward

asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale associated positively related with

phonemic awareness skills? 2) Is the leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum

temporale associated positively with emergent reading skills in young children, and 3) Is

the leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale related positively with

phonological recoding in lexical access as measured by the rapid naming tasks?

Relationships between the independent variables and the three dependent variables were

examined using individual hypotheses.

A series of explanatory multiple regression models were conducted to test each

research question. The independent variable was the degree of asymmetry between the

left and right horizontal planum temporale measurements, after controlling for gender,

handedness, IQ, and socioeconomic status. Multiple dependent variables represented

the three constructs of interest examined by the three research questions: phonemic

awareness (i.e., LAC, Elision task, and Incomplete Words), emergent reading (i.e., Word

Attack, Letter-Word Identification, Passage Comprehension, the Early Reading Screening

Inventory), and rapid automatic naming (i.e., colors, letters, and digits). The use of

multiple dependent variables to represent a single construct allows one to measure









different aspects or levels of the aforementioned constructs and therefore decrease the

likelihood of construct underrepresentation, a first step toward construct validity (Cook &

Campbell, 1979).

A separate regression equation, then, corresponds to each of the dependent

variables, resulting in a series of regression analyses, several being implemented for each

research question (i.e., construct): three for phonemic awareness, four for emergent

reading, and three for phonological recoding in lexical access. All regression analyses

that were associated with the same construct (i.e., phonemic awareness, emergent reading,

and phonological recoding in lexical access) were grouped together conceptually and

treated as a "family" of statistical analyses. To maintain the familywise Type I error at (x

= .05, a Bonferroni adjustment was applied to each of the three "families" of analyses.

Multicollinearity of the independent variables was examined using the SPSS Condition

Index, C. If this Condition Index had exceeded 30, corrective action would have been

taken to obtain an acceptable level of multicollinearity. Multicollinearity was acceptable

(<30) for all hypotheses tested.

Gender, handedness, intelligence, and socioeconomic status were controlled

statistically through inclusion in the equation. When more than two horizontal planar

measurements existed for a participant, the individual measurements were averaged

together to provide the best estimate of the length of the horizontal planum temporale.

A power analysis was conducted to aid in the interpretation of the data. The

probability of rejecting a null hypothesis when it is false is referred to as the power of a

test, with high power being desirable. The probability of Type II error is decreased by

selecting a larger sample when there is a fixed probability of Type I error. That is, the









larger the sample size, the more likely we are to reject a false null hypothesis at a

particular or-level. The use of large sample sizes decreases the probability of Type I and

Type II errors.

An insignificant P-value and failure to reject the null hypothesis may be due to

insufficient power for the size of the sample used. The post hoc estimation of power

facilitates an interpretation of one's results. Researchers not sufficiently sensitive to

power may interpret nonsignificant results as demonstrating no relationship or treatment

effects. A relationship may exist, yet inadequate power may result from small sample

size and/or effect sizes. That is, a relationship or a treatment effect may exist, yet the

power for detecting the difference was inadequate.

The current study utilizes sample sizes ranging from 41 to 58. These sample sizes

are relatively low for behavioral science research, yet higher than those typically found in

neuroscience research. Larger sample sizes contribute to the probability of higher power.

Thus, the lower power associated with relatively low sample sizes accounts in part for a

lack of significant results in the data.

Outliers

Multivariate outliers were removed within each family of variables. SPSS

regression was used to screen for multivariate outliers within each family. The criterion

for multivariate outliers was Mahalanobis distance. Mahalanobis distance is evaluated as

-)2-at p<.001 with the degrees of freedom equal to the number of variables. Any case with

a Mahalanobis distance greater than the specified X2 was considered a multivariate outlier

with too much influence in the analysis and was removed.









Table 2

Independent and Dependent Variables Examined


Independent Variable

Horizontal Planar
Asymmetry


Dependent Variable Family Name

Emergent Reading
Phonemic Awareness
Rapid Naming














CHAPTER 4
RESULTS

Overview of Analyses and Results

This research examined relationships between one independent variable (i.e.,

leftward horizontal planar asymmetry) and three dependent variables (i.e., phonemic

awareness, emergent reading, rapid naming skills) in young children. Relationships

between the independent variables and the three dependent variables were examined with

individual hypotheses. Data were incomplete on some of the 58 children. Data on

children were included in an analysis only if complete data were available on them in the

construct family being investigated. This process ensured that the sample size was kept

at its maximum for each analysis within each of the families and led to the creation of

subsets with varying sizes. The number of participants used for each research question is

reported in the results for that hypothesis.

Reliability is the accuracy or precision of a measuring instrument. In the current

study, interrater reliability was the consistency of planum temporale measurements when

measured by different individuals. Intrarater reliability in the present study was defined

as the author's consistency in measuring the planum temporale across time. The

interrater (n=8) and intrarater (n= 16) reliability estimates were adequate and are reported

in Table 3.









Table 3

Intrarater and Interrater Reliability for Neuroanatomical Measurements


Structure

Planum Temporale
Left Horizontal
Right Horizontal
Left Ascending
Right Ascending


Intrarater Reliability
n = 16

.98
.95
.97
.90


Interrater Reliability
n=8

.98
.90
.98
.97


A correlation matrix reporting relationships between the control variables and the

left horizontal planum, right horizontal planum, and the subsequent horizontal planar

coefficient indicates that gender, handedness, IQ, and socioeconomic status (SES) are not

significantly related to horizontal planar asymmetry.


Table 4

Horizontal Planar Measurements and Asymmetry Coefficient Correlations with Control
Variables (n = 58)


Gender


Horizontal Planar Coefficient


Left Horizontal Planum


Right Horizontal Planum


-.03


-.08


Correlation Coefficients
Handedness 10

-.16 .03


-.20


-.10


-.03 .03


SES

.07


.06


-. 13 .02










Hypothesis Testing

Research Question I

Is the leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale (i.e., horizontal

planar coefficient) associated positively with pre-reading skills, specifically phonemic

awareness among young children? This research question was analyzed using three

hypotheses.

Hypothesis 1:1 Leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale was

expected to be positively related to the ability to manipulate phonemes as measured by

the Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization test (LAC.)

Hypothesis 1:2 Leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale was

expected to be positively related to the ability to manipulate phonemes as measured by

the Elision task.

Hypothesis 1:3 Leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale was

expected to be positively related to auditory closure as measured by the Incomplete

Words test.

The independent variable is the horizontal planar coefficient and the dependent

variables are reflected in the Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization Test (LAC), Elision

Task, and the Incomplete Words test.

The SPSS regression analysis revealed no multivariate outliers that exceeded the

Mahalanobis distance X2 (4) = 18.47. Therefore, the Phonemic Awareness family has an

n of 58. Table 5 presents a description of data from this subset of participants.










Table 5

Descriptive Statistics for the Phonemic Awareness Family (n=58)

Variable n % Mean SD Range

Gender
Boys 32 55
Girls 26 45

Race/Ethnicity
African American 13 22
Asian 1 2
Caucasian 43 74
Native American 1 2

Handedness
Right 31 53
Non-Right 27 47


Age

Socioeconomic Status

Brain Volume

Lindamood Auditory
Conceptualization Test

Elision

Incomplete Words


6.1

46.9

1187

39


8

98


0.4

15.1

101

11


4

10


5.1 -7.2

13 -66

990 -1475

20 76


3- 19

73- 133


Table 6 reports the correlation matrix of all variables of interest for Hypothesis

One. The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to correlate positively with the

dependent variables (i.e., Elision, LAC, and Incomplete Words). No variables correlate

with the horizontal planar coefficient. The LAC and Incomplete Words tests correlate







61

with IQ, a variable controlled in the analysis. No other control variables are correlated

with the dependent variables.

Table 6

Phonemic Awareness Variable Family Correlation Matrix (n=58)

LAC Elision IncWords Gender Hand 10 SES

Planar -.02 .17 .14 -.02 -.17 .02 .06


Coefficient

Left Planum


Right Planum


-.07


-.15


-.07


.01


-.20


.04


-.11


-.15


LAC


.21 -.03


.52** -.05


Elision


Incomplete
Words


.47**


-.11


Gender


.18


-.20


.06


Handedness

IQ


.05


Note. LAC = Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization Test; Inc Words = Incomplete
Words; Hand = Handedness; IQ = Intelligence Quotient; SES = Socioeconomic Status.
*p <.05 >.01. ** p <.01


Hypothesis testing associated with research question I would be supported if the

horizontal planar coefficient were associated positively with the three measures of


-- .41"*









phonemic awareness. It would not be supported if a relationship between phonemic

awareness and the horizontal planar coefficient were not found or was negative. Results

are reported below.

Hypothesis 1:1 Elision test (phoneme manipulation). The horizontal planar

coefficient was expected to be associated positively with the ability to manipulate

phonemes (i.e., one of the five levels of phonemic awareness) as measured by the Elision

test. The regression analysis for this variable is reported in Table 7.

Table 7

Elision Equation Summary


Variable 1 t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender .97 1.0 .30

Handedness .77 .85 .40
.07 .00
IQ .05 1.2 .24

Socioeconomic -.03 -.99 .33
Status

Horizontal
Planar 1.56 1.5 .14 .11 .02
Coefficient

Constant 3.17 .74 .47
2= .11
Adjusted R2 = .02

To predict the relationship between the ability to manipulate phonemes and the
horizontal planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the
model as control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient as the independent
variable. The control variables accounted for 7% of the variance within the Elision







63

scores, and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an additional 4%. The change in R2

when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model was not significant (F
(1,52) =2.25, p=. 14). The variables in the equation are represented as follows:
A
(Elision) = 3.17 + Gender(.97)+ Handedness(.77) + IQ(.05) +

Socioeconomic Status(-.03) + Horizontal Planar Coefficient(l.56).


The regression equation was not significant (F (5,58) = 1.23, p=.31) and the

Adjusted R2 is low, .02. Therefore, horizontal planar asymmetry does not predict the

ability to manipulate phonemes as measured by the Elision test. Thus, hypothesis 1:1 is

not supported by this analysis.

Hypothesis 1:2 Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization test (phoneme

manipulation). Horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be associated positively

with the ability to manipulate phonemes (i.e., one of the five levels of phonemic

awareness) as measured by the Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization test (LAC). The

regression analysis for this variable is reported in Table 8.

To predict the relationship between the ability to manipulate phonemes and the

horizontal planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the

model as control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent

variable. The control variables combined to significantly predict phoneme manipulation,

and collectively contributed 35% to the variance of phoneme manipulation as measured

by the LAC (Table 8). Males scored higher on the LAC test than females (i.e., Males

were coded as 1 and Females as 0.) A participant is predicted to earn .49 points on the

LAC for every point of IQ.









Table 8

Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization Equation Summary


Variable t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender 5.8 2.4 .02

Handedness -1.8 -.76 .45
.35 .30
IQ .49 4.9 <.01

Socioeconomic
Status -.01 -.11 .91

Horizontal
Planar -1.0 -.39 .70 .35 .29
Coefficient

Constant -13.6 -1.2 .23
R2=.35
Adjusted R2 = .29


The change in R2 when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model
was not significant (F (1,52) =. 15, p=.70). The variables in the equation are represented as

follows:
A
(LAC) = -13.6 + Gender(5.8) + Handedness(-1.8) + IQ(.49) +
Socioeconomic Status(-.0 1) + Horizontal Planar Coefficient(- 1.0).

The regression equation created to test this hypothesis was significant (F (5, 58) =

5.64, p < .01 ). The addition of the horizontal planar coefficient did not change the

amount of variance contributed to the equation, nor was it a significant predictor of the

horizontal planar coefficient. Thus, hypothesis 1:2 was not supported by this analysis.







65

Hypothesis 1:3 Incomplete Words Test (auditory closure). The horizontal planar

coefficient was expected to be associated positively with auditory closure for missing

phonemes as measured by the Incomplete Words subtest of the WJ-R. The regression

analysis for this variable is reported in Table 9.

To predict the relationship between auditory closure for missing phonemes and

the horizontal planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the

model as control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent

Table 9

Incomplete Words Equation Summary


Variable 3 t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender 2.4 .99 .33

Handedness 1.4 .59 .56
.26 .21
IQ .39 3.9 <.01

Socioeconomic
Status .11 1.4 .16

Horizontal
Planar 3.0 1.1 .26 .28 .21
Coefficient

Constant 49.8 4.5 <.01
R =.28
Adjusted R2 = .21


variable. The control variables accounted for 26% of the variance within Incomplete

Words scores and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an additional 2%. A

participant is predicted to earn .39 points for every point of IQ. The change in R2 when









the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model was not significant (F (1,52) =

1.30, p=.26). The variables in the equation are represented as follows:

A
(Incomplete Words) = 49.8 + Gender(2.4) + Handedness(1.4) + IQ(.39) +

Socioeconomic Status(. 11) +

Horizontal Planar Coefficient(3.0).


The regression equation created for the Incomplete Words test was significant (F

(5, 58) = 4.03, p < .01). The addition of the horizontal planar coefficient made a 2%

change in the amount of variance contributed to the equation, and was not a significant

predictor. Thus, hypothesis 1:3 was not supported by this analysis.

Bonferroni Adjustment. A Bonferroni adjustment was applied to maintain the

familywise Type I error at (x = .05 for research question 1. The equation was as follows

for the phonemic awareness family: .05 / 3 = .017. The equations that include the ability

to manipulate phonemes (as measured by the LAC test) and auditory closure for missing

phonemes (as measured by the Incomplete Words test) remained significant with the

Bonferroni correction.

Summary of Research Question 1. The horizontal planar coefficient was expected

to be associated positively with phonemic awareness skills. Although two of the three

regression equations within the phonemic awareness family were significant, research

question I was not supported. The model testing whether the horizontal planar

coefficient predicts phoneme manipulation, as measured by the Elision task, was not

significant. The model testing phoneme manipulation as measured by the LAC was

significant, but horizontal planar asymmetry was not a significant predictor. The only









significant predictors of variance in the model were gender and IQ. The third model, in

which the horizontal planar coefficient was expected to predict auditory closure for

missing phonemes as measured by the Incomplete Words test of the WJ-R, was

significant. However, the horizontal planar coefficient was not a significant predictor.

Research Question 2

Is the leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale (i.e., horizontal

planar coefficient) associated positively with emergent reading skills among young

children? This research question will be analyzed using four hypotheses.

Hypothesis 2:1 The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be positively

related to the ability to identify letters and words as measured by the Letter-Word

Identification test of the WJ-R.

Hypothesis 2:2 The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be positively

related to the ability to read nonsense words as measured by the Word Attack subtest of

the WJ-R.

Hypothesis 2:3 The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be positively

related to basic reading skills as measured by the Early Reading Screening Inventory.

Hypothesis 2:4 The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be positively

related to reading comprehension skills as measured by the Passage Comprehension Test.

The independent variable was the horizontal planar coefficient and the dependent

variables were Word-Attack, Letter-Word Identification, Passage Comprehension, and

the Early Reading Screening Inventory (ERSI.)

The SPSS regression analysis revealed one multivariate outlier that exceeded the

Mahalanobis distance X2 (5) = 20.50. This case was removed and not included in the







68

analysis of the emergent reading family, resulting in an n for this hypothesis of 55. Table

10 presents a description of data from this subset of participants.

Table 10

Descriptive Statistics for the Emergent Reading Family

Variable n % Mean SD Range


Gender
Boys
Girls

Race/Ethnicity
African American
Asian
Caucasian
Native American

Handedness
Right
Non-Right

Age

Socioeconomic Status

Brain Volume

Letter-Word Identification

Word Attack

Early Reading
Screening Inventory (ERSI)

Passage Comprehension


6.1

47

1187

100

96


27

101


0.4

15

101

13

11


9

14


5.1 -7.2

13 66

990 -1475

64-123

77-124


4-40

74-132












Table 11

Emergent Reading Variable Family Correlation Matrix
(n=55)
LW WA PC ERSI 10 SES Gender Hand


Planar
Coefficient

Left Planum


Right Planum


Letter-Word
Identification

Word-Attack


.44** .24 .30* .30*


.15 .02 -.10


-.37** -.30* -.2 -.34** -.14


-- .48** .63** .77** .43**


-- .45** .37** .28*


.01 -.12


-.08 -.20


.04 -.04 -.03


.02 .02


.07 .01 .07


Passage -- .32* .46** .06
Comprehension


.01 .02


-.15 -.05


Early Reading
Screening
Inventory


.04


-.10


-.19


Socioeconomic
Status


-- -.02


Note. LW = Letter-Word Identification; WA = Word Attack; PC = Passage
Comprehension; ERSI = Early Reading Screening Inventory; IQ = Intelligence Quotient;
SES = Socioeconomic Status; Hand = Handedness.
p <.05 >.0l. ** p <.0l


Gender


.43**







70

As expected, data from Letter-Word Identification, Passage Comprehension, and

the Early Reading Screening Inventory (ERSI) were correlated with horizontal planar

coefficient (Table 11). However, Word Attack was expected to but did not correlate with

the horizontal planar coefficient. The four dependent variables were correlated with IQ, a

variable controlled in the analysis.

Hypothesis testing associated with research question 2 would be supported if the

horizontal planar coefficient were related positively with the three measures emergent

reading skills. It would not be supported if a relationship between leftward horizontal

planar asymmetry and emergent reading skills is not found or is negative.

Hypothesis 2:1 Letter-Word Identification (letter and sight word reading).

Horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be associated positively with letter and

word identification skills as measured by Letter-Word Identification. The regression

analysis for this variable is reported in Table 12.

To predict the relationship between letter and word identification skills and the

horizontal planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the

model as control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent

variable. The control variables accounted for 19% of the variance within Letter-Word

Identification scores and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an additional 19%.

Both IQ and the horizontal planar coefficient explained a significant amount of variance.

A participant is predicted to earn .44 Letter-Word Identification points for every point of

IQ.









Table 12

Letter-Word Identification Ecuation Summary


Variable P t p Adjusted R2

Gender 1.24 .43 .67

Handedness 1.22 .41 .69
.19 .12
IQ .44 3.74 <.01

Socioeconomic
Status -.05 -.55 .58

Horizontal
Planar 12.44 3.92 <.01 .38 .32
Coefficient

Constant 53.36 4.06 <.01


R2 =.38
Adjusted R2 = .32


The change in R2 when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model

was significant (F (1,49) = 15.35, p < .01). The variables in the equation are expressed as

follows:

A
(Letter-Word Identification) = 53.36 + Gender(1.24) + Handedness(1.22) +

IQ(.44) + Socioeconomic Status(-.05) +

Horizontal Planar Coefficient( 12.44)


The regression equation created for the Letter-Word Identification was significant

(F (5, 55) = 6.05, p < .01). Leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale was









positively related to the ability to identify letters and words. Thus, hypothesis 2:1 was

supported by this analysis.

Hypothesis 2:2 Word Attack (reading phonetically regular nonsense words). The

horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be associated with the ability to read

phonetically regular nonsense words, as measured by the Word Attack subtest. The

regression analysis for this variable is reported in Table 13

Table 13

Word-Attack Equation Summary


Variable 3 t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender 1.13 .37 .71

Handedness 1.73 .54 .59
.09 .02
IQ .25 2.0 .05

Socioeconomic
Status .04 .40 .69

Horizontal
Planar 6.2 1.84 .07 .14 .06
Coefficient

Constant 64.9. 4.66 <.01
R2 =.14
Adjusted R2 = .06


To predict the relationship between the ability to read phonetically regular

nonsense words and the horizontal planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES

were entered into the model as control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient

added as the independent variable. The control variables accounted for 9% of the









variance within Word Attack scores and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an

additional 5% of the variance. A participant is predicted to earn .25 points for every point

of IQ. The change in R2 when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model

approached significance (F (1,49) = 3.39, p = .07). The variables in the equation are

represented as follows:

A
(Word-Attack) = 64.9 + Gender(1.13) + Handedness( 1.73) + IQ(.25) +

Socioeconomic Status(.04) + Horizontal Planar

Coefficient(6.2)

The regression equation created was not significant (F (5,55) = 1.65, p = .16). Thus,

hypothesis 2:2 was not supported by this analysis.

Hypothesis 2:3 Early Reading Screening Inventory (basic reading skills). The

horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be associated with early reading skills as

measured by the Early Reading Screening Inventory (ERSI). The regression analysis for

this variable is reported in Table 14.

To predict the relationship between letter and word identification skills and the

horizontal planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the

model as control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent

variable. The control variables accounted for 23% of the variance within the ERSI

scores, and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an additional 9%. A participant is

predicted to earn .32 points for every point of IQ. The change in R2 when the horizontal

planar coefficient was added to the model was significant (F (1,49) = 6.77, p:< .01).









The variables in the equation are represented as follows:

A
(ERSI) = -2.70 + Gender(-.84) + Handedness(2.42) + IQ(.32) +

Socioeconomic Status(-. 12) + Horizontal Planar Coefficient(6.34).


Table 14

Early Readin2 Screenin2 Inventory


Variable P t p R Adjusted R2

Gender -.84 -.38 .70

Handedness 2.42 1.05 .30
.23 .16
IQ .32 3.57 p<.OI

Socioeconomic
Status -.12 -1.64 .12

Horizontal
Planar .32 .25
Coefficient 6.34 2.61 .01

Constant -2.70 -.27 .79
R2 =.32
Adjusted R2 = .25


The equation created was significant (F (5, 55) = 4.61, p < .01). The horizontal

planar coefficient explained a significant amount of variance. Leftward asymmetry of the

horizontal planum temporale was positively related to early reading skills. The control

variables, particularly IQ, were also significant predictors. Thus, hypothesis 2:3 was

supported by this analysis.

Hypothesis 2:4 Passage Comprehension (reading comprehension). The horizontal

planar coefficient was expected to be associated with reading comprehension skills as









measured by the Passage Comprehension subtest. The regression analysis for this

variable is reported in Table 15.

Table 15

Passage Comprehension


Variable P t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender 1.78 .53 .60

Handedness .57 .16 .87
.22 .15
IQ .53 3.79 p<.O1

Socioeconomic
Status .03 .29 .77

Horizontal
Planar 8.88 2.38 p<.02 .30 .23
Coefficient

Constant 42.7 2.76 p<.O1
R2 =.30
Adjusted R2 = .23


To predict the relationship between reading comprehension and the horizontal

planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the model as

control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent variable.

The control variables accounted for 22% of the variance within Passage Comprehension

scores and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an additional 8%. A participant is

predicted to earn .53 points on the Passage Comprehension test for every point of IQ.

The change in R2 when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model was

significant (F (1,49) = 5.66, p = .02).











The variables in the equation are represented as follows:

A
(Passage Comprehension) = 42.7 + Gender(1.78) + Handedness(.57) + IQ(.53) +

Socioeconomic Status(.03) + Horizontal Planar Coefficient(8.88).



The equation created was significant ( F (5, 55) = 4.16 p < .01). Leftward

asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale was positively related to reading

comprehension. IQ, in conjunction with the other control variables was also a significant

predictor. Thus, hypothesis 2:4 was supported by this analysis.

Bonferroni Adjustment. A Bonferroni adjustment was applied to maintain the

familywise Type I error at x = .05 for research question 2. The equation was as follows

for the emergent reading family: .05 / 4 = .0 125. The equations that include letter and

word identification skills (as measured by the Letter-Word Identification test), early

reading skills (as measured by the Early Reading Screening Inventory), and reading

comprehension skills (as measured by the Passage Comprehension test) remained

significant with the Bonferroni correction.

Summary of Research Question 2. Leftward horizontal asymmetry of the planum

temporale, as measured by the horizontal planar coefficient, was expected to predict

emergent reading skills. Three of the four hypotheses within the emergent reading family

were significant. Thus, research question two was partially supported. The model testing

whether leftward horizontal planar asymmetry predicts the ability to read phonetically

regular nonsense words was not significant. The horizontal planar coefficient in









conjunction with IQ explained 32% of the variance in the ability to read letters and

words. Twenty-five percent of the variance in early reading skills was explained by the

horizontal planar coefficient and the control variables, particularly IQ. The horizontal

planar coefficient and IQ explained 23% of the variance in reading comprehension. Thus,

partial support for research question 2 was found.

Research Question 3

Leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale (i.e., horizontal planar

coefficient) associated positively with Rapid Automatic Naming Skills? This research

question will be analyzed using the following three subhypotheses.

Hypothesis 3:1 The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be positively

related with the ability to name colors rapidly.

Hypothesis 3:2 The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be positively

related with the ability to name numbers rapidly.

Hypothesis 3:3 The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be positively

related with the ability to name letters rapidly.

A regression equation was created for this research question, Rapid Naming, with

the independent variable being the horizontal planar coefficient and the dependent

variables being three rapid naming tasks for colors, letters, and numbers.

The SPSS regression analysis revealed one multivariate outlier that exceeded the

Mahalanobis distance X2 (4) = 18.47, resulting in an n for this hypothesis of 41. This case

was removed and not included in the analysis of the Rapid Naming family. Table 16

presents a description of data from this subset of participants.










Table 16

Descriptive Statistics for the Ranid Namin2 Family


Variable n % Mean SD Range

Gender
Boys 21 51
Girls 20 49

Race/Ethnicity
African American 9 22
Asian 1 2
Caucasian 31 76

Handedness
Right 21 51
Non-Right 20 49

Age 6.2 0.4 5.1 -7.2

Socioeconomic 45 15 13-66
Status

Brain Volume 1181 96 990-1475

Rapid Naming-Colors 63 22 31 126

Rapid Naming -Letters 57 20 30- 112

Rapid Naming-Numbers 54 20 29- 132



Table 17 reports the correlation matrix of all variables of interest for Hypothesis

Three. The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to correlate positively with the

dependent variables (i.e., rapid naming of colors, letters, and numbers). However, no

variables were correlated with the horizontal planar coefficient. The rapid naming of

colors was correlated to SES, a control variable.










Table 17

Rapid Naming Variable Family Correlation Matrix (n=4 1)

Colors Numbers Letters Gender
Planar
Coefficient -.08 -.07 -.17 -.07


-.08


.05


Left Planum


Right Planum


Colors


Numbers


-.02


.20


-.16


-.04


.01


Letters


Gender


Handedness


IQ


Note. Hand = Handedness; IQ = Intelligence Quotient; SES = Socioeconomic Status.
*p < .05 >.Ol. ** p <.01



Hypothesis 3:1 Rapid Naming of Colors (phonetic recoding in lexical access).

The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to predict the ability to name colors

rapidly. The regression analysis for this variable is reported in Table 18.


Hand

-.05


-.11


-.04


-.15


.04


.05


Q-

-.01


-.15


-.12


-.12


-.09


-.14


.03


-.13


SES

.11


.11



.03


.39**



.16


.24


-.19


-.06


-- .65**









Table 18

Rapid Naming of Colors Equation Summary


Variable t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender 2.97 .45 .65

Handedness -5.66 -.86 .39
.18 .09
IQ -.15 -.53 .60

Socioeconomic
Status .57 2.54 .02

Horizontal
Planar -5.86 -.80 .43 .19 .08
Coefficient

Constant 55.5 1.70 .10

R- = .19
Adjusted R2 = .08


To predict the relationship between naming colors rapidly and the horizontal

planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the model as

control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent variable.

The control variables contributed provided for 18% of the variance of Rapid Naming for

Colors and the horizontal planar coefficient contributed an additional 1%. The change in

R2 when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model was not significant (E

(1,35) = .64, p = .43).









The variables in the equation are represented as follows:

A
(Rapid Naming of Colors) = 55.5 + Gender(2.97) + Handedness(-5.65) +

IQ(-. 15) + Socioeconomic Status(.57) +

Horizontal Planar Coefficient(-5.86)

However, the regression equation created was not significant (F (5, 41) = 1.70, p =

.16) and the Adjusted R2 is low at .08. Thus, hypothesis 3:1 was not supported by this

analysis.

Hypothesis 3:2 Rapid Naming of Numbers (phonetic recoding in lexical access).

The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to predict the ability to name numbers

rapidly. The regression analysis for this variable is reported in Table 19.

Table 19

Rapid Naming of Numbers Equation Summary


Variable 0 t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender 5.45 .83 .41

Handedness 2.14 .33 .75
.05 -.05
IQ -.12 -.42 .68

Socioeconomic
Status .25 1.14 .26

Horizontal
Planar -3.68 -.50 .62 .06 -.07
Coefficient

Constant 51.0 1.6 .13
R7= .06
Adjusted R2 = -.07









To predict the relationship between naming numbers rapidly and the horizontal

planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the model as

control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent variable.

The control variables accounted for 5% of the variance within Rapid Naming of Numbers

scores and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an additional 1%. The change in R2

when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model was not significant (F

(1,35) = .25, p = .62). The variables in the equation are represented as follows:

A
(Rapid Naming of Numbers) = 51.0 + Gender(5.44) + Handedness(2.14) +

IQ(-. 12) + Socioeconomic Status(.25) +

Horizontal Planar Coefficient(-3.68).

The regression equation created was not significant ([ (5, 41) = .45, p = .81) and

the Adjusted R2 is low at -.07. Thus hypothesis 3:2 was not supported by this analysis.

Hypothesis 3:3 Rapid Naming of Letters (phonetic recoding in lexical access).

The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to predict the ability to name letters

rapidly. The regression analysis of this variable is reported in Table 20.

To predict the relationship between naming numbers rapidly and the horizontal

planar coefficient, IQ, handedness, gender, and SES were entered into the model as

control variables with the horizontal planar coefficient added as the independent variable.

The control variables accounted for 11 % of the variance within the Rapid Naming of

Letters scores and the horizontal planar coefficient provided an additional 4%.









Table 20

Rapid Naming of Letters Equation Summary


Variable 0 t p R2 Adjusted R2

Gender 7.86 1.22 .23

Handedness 1.64 .26 .80
.11 .01
IQ -.19 -.71 .48

Socioeconomic .39 1.77 .09
Status

Horizontal
Planar -8.54 -1.20 .24 .15 .03
Coefficient

Constant 56.38 1.77 .09
R= .15
Adjusted R2 = .03


The change in R2 when the horizontal planar coefficient was added to the model

was not significant (F (1,35) = 1.42, p = .24). The variables in the equation are

represented as follows:

A
(Rapid Naming of Letters) = 56.38 + Gender(7.86) + Handedness( 1.64) +

IQ(-. 19) + Socioeconomic Status(.39) +

Horizontal Planar Coefficient(-8.54)

The regression equation created was not significant (F (5, 41)= 1.21, p = .33) and

the Adjusted R2 is low at .15. Therefore horizontal planar asymmetry does not predict the

ability name letters rapidly. Thus, hypothesis 3:3 is not supported by this analysis.









Bonferroni Adjustment. A Bonferroni adjustment was applied to maintain the

familywise Type I error at ax = .05 for research question 3. The equation for the rapid

naming family was as follows: .05 / 3 = .017. None of the analyses were significant.

Summary of Research Question 3. Leftward horizontal asymmetry of the planum

temporale was expected to predict rapid naming skills. However, none of the three

regression equations within the rapid naming family was significant. Thus, research

question 3 was not supported.

Power Analysis

The largest total R2 for any hypothesis tested was .38 (Table 12). The model from

which this R2 was derived had 55 participants. A multiple correlation power analysis

with five predictors was performed for a total R2 = .38 at cx = .05 with 55 participants.

The power obtained was .99, a figure that is excellent.

The Rapid Naming construct family had fewer cases and a much smaller R2. A

multiple correlation power analysis with five predictors was performed for a total R =

.19 at a = .05 with 41 cases. The power obtained was .50, a figure that is low. However,

if more of the variance had been explained by this construct family, and the power

analysis conducted with these parameters (i.e., more variance explained by the model but

the same n), there was sufficient power. For example, a multiple correlation power

analysis with five predictors was performed for a total R2 = .38 at a = .05 with 41 cases,

the power obtained is .93, which is excellent. Power apparently was sufficient had the

model explained more variance.









Table 20

Power Analysis


R= .38 5 Predictors n = 55 Power = .99


R2 =.19 5 Predictors n = 41 Power = .50

R= .38 5 Predictors n = 41 Power = .93










Table 21

Summary of Hypothesis Testing


Construct Predictor Control Planar
Family Variable Variables Coefficient Change p value
Adjusted R2 Adjusted R2

LAC .30 .29 -.01 .0003

Elision 0 .02 .02 NS
Phonemic
Awareness Incomplete Words .21 .21 0 .0036



Bonferroni Adjustment:

.05 / 3 =.017



Letter-Word ID .12 .32 .20 .0002

Word Attack .02 .06 .04 .16

Passage
Emergent Comprehension .15 .23 .08 .0032
Reading
ERSI .16 .25 .09 .0016



Bonferroni Adjustment:

.05/4 = .0125


Colors .09 .08 -.01 NS

Letters .01 .03 -.02 NS
Rapid
Naming Numbers -.05 -.07 X NS

Bonferroni Adjustment:

.05/3 = .017















CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION

The purpose of this study was to provide additional information as to the

influence of neuroanatomy on young children's early reading skills. Specifically,

relationships between the degree of asymmetry in the horizontal planum temporale and

phonemic awareness, emergent reading skills, and rapid naming skills were examined.

The area of the left planum temporale typically is longer than the area of the right

planum temporale and is associated with language function (Geschwind & Levitsky,

1968; Best, 1988; Foundas et al., 1994; Plante et al., 1994). The horizontal planum

temporale also has been associated with phonemic awareness (Leonard et al., 1996) and

the use of phonemes in language (Damasio et. al, 1992). Longitudinal studies have found

a relationship between phonemic awareness and later reading ability (Snider, 1997;

MacDonald et al., 1995; Torgesen et al., 1994; Salonen et al., 1998; Lundberg et al.,

1980). Based on previous research (Leonard et al., 1996), children with more advanced

phonemic awareness and emergent reading skills were expected to have a greater degree

of leftward planar asymmetry than children whose phonemic awareness, emergent

reading skills, and rapid naming abilities were less developed.

Research Question 1: Phonemic Awareness

The horizontal planar coefficient (i.e., leftward horizontal planar asymmetry) was

hypothesized to be related positively with phonemic awareness skills. The phonemic

awareness research question was tested using three explanatory multiple regression









equations. The independent variable was the horizontal planar coefficient and the

dependent variables were the Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization Test (LAC) (e.g. a

measure of phoneme manipulation), Elision Task (e.g., a measure of phoneme

manipulation), and the Incomplete Words subtest (e.g., a measure of auditory closure).

Hypothesis 1:1 Elision Test (Phoneme Manipulation)

The horizontal planar coefficient was hypothesized to be positively related with

the ability to manipulate phonemes, as measured by performance on the Elision test. The

relationship between the horizontal planar coefficient and the ability to manipulate

phonemes was not significant.

Hypothesis 1:2 Lindamood Auditory Conceptualization Test (Phoneme Manipulation)

The horizontal planar coefficient was hypothesized to be positively related with

the ability to manipulate phonemes, as measured by performance on the LAC. While the

equation was significant, only gender and IQ predicted the ability to manipulate

phonemes. Collectively, they explained 30% of the variability in the ability to manipulate

phonemes.

Hypothesis 1:3 Incomplete Words

The horizontal planar coefficient was hypothesized to be positively related with

auditory closure for missing phonemes as measured by the Incomplete Words subtest

from the Woodcock-Johnson Psychoeducational Battery-Revised (WJ-R). The equation

was significant. However, only IQ, a control variable, predicted of auditory closure for

missing phonemes. The control variables, particularlay IQ, explained 21 % of the

variability in auditory closure for missing phonemes.









Research Question I Discussion

Language function has long been associated with leftward asymmetry of the

planum temporale (Best, 1988; Foundas et al., 1994; Plante et al., 1991). Children with

damage to the posterior perisylvian region has been associated with disruptions in the

ability to combine phonemes into words and to select the most appropriate word for the

context (Damasio & Damasio, 1992).

Prior research had suggested a relationship between the planar coefficient and

phonemic awareness (Leonard et al., 1996) and the use of phonemes in language

(Damasio et al., 1992). Few studies focusing on relationships between phonological

awareness and the planum temporale were located in the literature. A closer inspection of

the data reveals that, although the ability to manipulate phonemes and auditory closure for

missing phonemes (i.e., the LAC and the Incomplete Words test) produced significant

results, the variance explained can be attributed to the collective contribution of gender

and IQ. More specifically, 30% of the variance in the phoneme manipulation task is

attributable to the control variables, particularly gender and IQ.

Handedness and SES have no apparent relation with the horizontal planar

coefficient or phonemic awareness. Gender and IQ predict a significant amount of

variability in phoneme manipulation (i.e., LAC) as the horizontal planar coefficient was

not a significant predictor of this skill. Therefore, children's ability to manipulate

phonemes as measured by the LAC seemingly is influenced more by their IQ and gender

than their horizontal planar coefficient.

The LAC is a novel task for most children and the relationship between the LAC

and IQ is not surprising. The LAC requires children to recognize that colored blocks









represent sounds, demonstrate with the colored blocks novel words spoken by the

examiner, and manipulate the blocks to represent phoneme changes (i.e., 'pip' to 'pap').

The level of difficulty presented by the task may introduce construct irrelevant-variance

in the form of construct irrelevant difficulty (Messick, 1995). By IQ being a significant

predictor of LAC performance, it suggests that this task may draw heavily on fluid-

reasoning ability. Brighter children may use their advanced problem-solving and

reasoning skills to understand and complete this novel task, that may baffle their less

endowed peers.

Gender, Handedness, IQ, SES, and leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum

temporale were not related with the ability to manipulate phonemes as measured by the

Elision task. The Elision task is a much simpler task than the LAC and is presented in the

form of a "word game." Although this task is novel to most children, it requires less

higher level reasoning skills than the LAC and is presented verbally.

IQ was a significant predictor of variability in auditory closure for missing

phonemes (i.e., Incomplete Words). Handedness, gender, SES, and the horizontal planar

coefficient have no apparent relationship with this skill. Children's ability to form words

with phonemic segments missing seemingly is influenced more by their IQ than their

horizontal planar coefficient.

An inspection of the correlation matrix for the phonemic awareness family reveals

that phoneme manipulation (i.e., LAC) and auditory closure for missing phonemes (i.e.,

Incomplete Words) were highly correlated with IQ. In addition, the two phoneme

manipulation tasks, the LAC and Elision tests, also were highly intercorrelated with each

other.









The finding that IQ was a significant predictor of phoneme manipulation (i.e.,

LAC) and auditory closure for missing phonemes (i.e., Incomplete Words) is consistent

with a substantial number of studies found in the literature documenting relationship

between IQ and academic achievement (Sattler, 1992; Hernstein & Murray, 1994; Carver,

1990; Cornwall, 1992).

The level of phonemic awareness skills assessed by the instruments administered

may have been too advanced for the young children in this study. The implications of this

advanced level of difficulty are discussed in the limitations section.


Research Question 2 Emergent Reading

The horizontal planar coefficient (i.e., leftward asymmetry of the horizontal

planum temporale) was hypothesized to be related positively with emergent reading skills

among young children. The emergent reading research question was tested using four

explanatory multiple regression equations.

The independent variable was the horizontal planar coefficient and the dependent

variables included the ability to identify letters and words, reading of nonsense words,

passage comprehension, and an inventory of basic reading skills. These four variables

comprise the emergent reading family.

Hypothesis 2:1 Letter-Word Identification

The horizontal planar coefficient was hypothesized to be positively related with

the ability to read letters and words as measured by the Incomplete Words subtest. The

horizontal planar coefficient and the control variables jointly explained 32% of the

variability in the ability to read letters and words.









Hypothesis 2:2 Reading of Nonsense Words

The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be associated with the ability to

read phonetically regular nonsense words as measured by the Word Attack subtest. The

relationship between the horizontal planar coefficient and the ability to read phonetically

regular nonsense words was not significant.

Hypothesis 2:3 Basic Reading Skills

The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be associated with basic reading

skills, as measured by the ERSI. The horizontal planar coefficient and the control

variables explained a significant amount (i.e., 25%) of the variance in basic reading skills.

Hypothesis 2:4 Passage Comprehension

The horizontal planar coefficient was expected to be associated with reading

comprehension skills as measured by the passage comprehension subtest. The horizontal

planar coefficient and IQ were significant predictors, collectively explaining 23% of the

variability in reading comprehension ability.

Research Question 2 Discussion

The leftward asymmetry of the horizontal planum temporale was hypothesized to

be positively related with emergent reading skills. Longitudinal studies have found a

predictive relationship between phonemic awareness and later reading ability (Snider,

1997; Mac Donald & Cornwall, 1995; Salonen et al., 1998; Lundberg et al., 1980). Pre-

reading preschool children who showed signs of emergent reading ability demonstrated

higher phonemic and phonological awareness skills than their same aged peers (Bowey,

1994). Studies focusing on relationships between emergent reading skills and the planum

temporale could not be located. Because relationships in the literature between









phonological processing and reading skills are well established (Snider, 1997;

MacDonald & Cornwall, 1995; Torgesen et al., 1994; Salonen et al., 1998; Lundberg et

al., 1980) horizontal planar asymmetry was hypothesized to be positively related with

emergent reading skills. This hypothesis was partially confirmed in this present study

with three of the four equations testing the Emergent Reading hypothesis being

significant.

One of the most compelling finding within the emergent reading family was the

amount of variance (i.e., 20%) explained by the horizontal planar coefficient in the

prediction of letter-word identification skills. The ability to identify letters and read

common sight words was predicted by leftward horizontal planar asymmetry. Recall that

the total amount of variance explained by the horizontal planar coefficient and the control

variables was 32%, with 12% of the variance explained by the control variables. Thus,

20% of the variance within the model was explained by the horizontal planar coefficient.

This finding lends support to the theory that a specific biological region within the brain,

the horizontal planum temporale, is associated with identifying letters and sight words.

Planar asymmetry appears to partially predict three reading skills: the identification of

letters and words, comprehension, and basic reading skills.

The amount of variance contributed by the horizontal planar coefficient in

hypothesis two is relatively small (i.e., 8 to 20%). Reading is a complex task that

requires the synthesis of many cognitive abilities and skills as well as noncognitive

qualities (e.g., interest, motivation, persistence). Furthermore, the neurobiological

processes impacting reading are likely to be dispersed broadly throughout the brain and

not confined to one specific region. Studies investigating the culminating effects of









multiple anatomical structures and their relationship to reading disabilities (Leonard,

Eckert, Lombardino, Oakland, Kranzler, Mohr, King, & Freeman, 2001) and

schizophrenia (Leonard, Kuldau, Breier, Zuffante, Gautier, Heron, Lavery, Packing,

Williams, & DeBose, 1999) have substantiated this hypothesis.

The horizontal planar coefficient did not predict the ability to read phonetically

regular nonsense words as measured by the Word-Attack subtest. Children must apply

phonemic and structural analysis skills when pronouncing phonetically regular nonsense

words. In this study, the measure of the ability to read phonetically regular nonsense

words was categorized as a measure of basic reading ability. Reliance on an individual's

phonemic awareness and decoding skills to accurately read phonetically regular nonsense

words may cloud the nature of the task. That is, attempting to decode may be measuring

multiple qualities, including phonological recoding in lexical access, phonetic recoding to

maintain information in working memory, phonemic awareness, and ultimately the ability

to produce words they have never seen or heard. Furthermore, the decoding of

phonetically regular nonsense words requires persons to accurately pronounce the word

presented. The measure used to assess the reading of nonsense words appears to require a

number of cognitive processes and to rely more heavily on phonological processing skills

than the other emergent reading tasks.

Thus, in reference to research question one, phonemic awareness tasks were not

associated with horizontal planar asymmetry. The ability to read nonsense words (i.e.,

Word-Attack), which is highly dependent on strong phonological processing skills, also

may indicate that the processes involved in phonological processing are dispersed more

broadly and in several regions of the brain. The horizontal planar coefficient appears to









be associated with sight word reading and reading comprehension rather than the

subcomponent set of phonemic awareness skills.

Research Question 3 Rapid Naming

The occurrence of deficits in naming-speed have been found in persons with

severe reading disabilities (Wagner et al., 1999; Wolfe, 1997; Felton et al., 1990).

Leftward horizontal planar asymmetry was expected to be positively related with the

ability to name objects rapidly. This hypothesis was not supported through tests by three

explanatory multiple regression equations. Leftward horizontal planar asymmetry was

not associated with rapid naming. The rapid naming of colors, numbers, and letters

requires efficient retrieval of phonological information from long-term memory. While

reading, children must retrieve phonemes associated with letters. Efficiency in this

retrieval process is necessary to successfully decode words. Current findings suggest

mechanisms associated with the long-term retrieval of phonological information are not

located in the horizontal planum temporale.

An inspection of the rapid naming family correlation matrix reveals that the three

areas investigated (i.e., naming colors, letters, and numbers rapidly) are highly

intercorrelated. The relationship between naming numbers and letters rapidly is

particularly strong (r = .80). The strong relationship between naming letters and numbers

rapidly may be due to their relying on similar cognitive processes. Furthermore, in that

the correlation between naming colors rapidly and naming letters and numbers is

somewhat lower (i.e., the mid. 60s), the naming of colors rapidly may rely on somewhat

different cognitive processes. The rapid naming of letters and numbers has been found to




Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EY2L9HVQ0_7EOW3B INGEST_TIME 2014-06-11T23:20:53Z PACKAGE AA00022182_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES



PAGE 1

+25,=217$/ 3/$180 7(0325$/( 2) 7+( +80$1 %5$,1 $1' ,76 5(/$7,216+,3 :,7+ 3+212/2*,&$/ 352&(66,1* $1' (0(5*(17 5($',1* 6.,//6 ,1 <281* &+,/'5(1 %\ 6+$5
PAGE 2

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

PAGE 3

7$%/( 2) &217(176 SDJH $&.12:/('*0(176 LL $%675$&7 LY &+$37(56 ,1752'8&7,21 5(9,(: 2) /,7(5$785( 3KRQRORJLFDO 'HYHORSPHQW 3KRQRORJLFDO 3URFHVVLQJ %UDLQ 'HYHORSPHQW 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQV 0(7+2' 3DUWLFLSDQWV ,QVWUXPHQWDWLRQ 05, 6FDQ 6WDWLVWLFDO $QDO\VHV 5(68/76 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ 5DSLG 1DPLQJ 3RZHU $QDO\VLV ',6&866,21 5()(5(1&(6 LLL %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+

PAGE 4

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f WR PHDVXUH WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQG WKURXJK SV\FKRHGXFDWLRQDO WHVWV WR DVVHVV SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DQG UDSLG QDPLQJ $GGLWLRQDO GDWD ZHUH DFTXLUHG RQ FKLOGUHQfV LQWHOOLJHQFH KDQGHGQHVV GHYHORSPHQWDO KLVWRU\ DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV $ VHULHV RI H[SODQDWRU\ PXOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOV ZDV FRQGXFWHG IRU HDFK RI WKH WKUHH FRQVWUXFW VNLOO IDPLOLHV LH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DQG UDSLG QDPLQJf WR GHWHUPLQH LI KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ SUHGLFWHG WKHVH VNLOOV $ %RQIHUURQL DGMXVWPHQW ZDV DSSOLHG IRU HDFK FRQVWUXFW IDPLO\ ,9

PAGE 5

,Q UHIHUHQFH WR SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV WZR RI WKH WKUHH HTXDWLRQV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW +RUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ DFFRXQWV IRU b DQG b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b RI WKH YDULDQFH RQ D PHDVXUH RI VLJKW ZRUG UHDGLQJ b RI WKH YDULDQFH RQ DQ LQGH[ RI HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG b RI WKH YDULDQFH RI UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ $Q HTXDWLRQ H[DPLQLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ DQG UHDGLQJ SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH VLJKW ZRUGV ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW 7KXV WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV VWURQJO\ UHODWHG WR HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV LQ D VDPSOH RI \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ ,Q UHIHUHQFH WR UDSLG QDPLQJ WKH HTXDWLRQV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH QHXURSV\FKRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKHVH VNLOOV DUH QRW ORFDWHG LQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP Y

PAGE 6

&+$37(5 ,1752'8&7,21 3KRQHPHV FRQVLVW RI LQGLYLGXDO VRXQGV RI ODQJXDJH 0RUHRYHU SKRQHPHV RIWHQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ OHWWHUV RU OHWWHU FRPELQDWLRQV 3DOLQFVDU t 3HUU\ f 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV RFFXUV ZKHQ RQH LV FRQVFLRXVO\ DZDUH RI WKHVH VRXQGV RQH LV DZDUH WKDW ZRUGV FRQVLVW RI SKRQHPHV DQG RQH KDV WKH DELOLW\ WR XVH WKLV NQRZOHGJH RI SKRQHPHV ZKHQ UHDGLQJ DQG VSHOOLQJ 6QLGHU 6QLGHU f (QJOLVK LV DQ DOSKDEHWLF ODQJXDJH LQ ZKLFK WKH OHWWHUV DUH XVHG WR UHSUHVHQW VRXQGV 7KH (QJOLVK ZULWLQJ V\VWHP UHSUHVHQWV RU FRGHV ZRUGV DW D SKRQRORJLFDO OHYHO 7KH EHJLQQLQJ UHDGHU PXVW OHDUQ WKDW SULQWHG V\PEROV LH OHWWHUV RI WKH DOSKDEHWf UHSUHVHQW XQLWV RI VSHHFK DW LWV PRVW EDVLF OHYHO WKH SKRQHPH &URZGHU f .QRZOHGJH WKDW SULQWHG V\PEROV UHSUHVHQW VSHFLILF SKRQHPHV LV QRW HDVLO\ DFTXLUHG E\ VRPH FKLOGUHQ 3HUVRQV ZLWK DGHTXDWH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV KDYH D QXPEHU RI DGYDQWDJHV ZKHQ OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f 7KH\ DUH OLNHO\ WR YLHZ WKH DOSKDEHWLF QDWXUH RI (QJOLVK DV D ORJLFDO ZD\ RI UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH ODQJXDJH /HDUQLQJ WR UHDG QHZ ZRUGV LQYROYHV VHJPHQWLQJ WKH OHWWHU VWULQJ LQWR XQLWV WKDW FRUUHVSRQG WR LQGLYLGXDO SKRQHPHV DQG WKHQ EOHQGLQJ WKH LQGLYLGXDO VRXQGV WRJHWKHU WR SURQRXQFH WKH ZRUG 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV UHODWHG WR ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ 6QLGHU 0DF'RQDOG t &RUQZDOO /XQGEHUJ 2ORIIVVRQ t :DOO f 5HODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG UHDGLQJ DUH UHFLSURFDO %DUURQ )RRUPDQ f 7KDW LV FKLOGUHQ ILUVW GHYHORS D VLPSOH OHYHO DQG ODWHU DFTXLUH D PRUH FRPSOH[ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI

PAGE 7

SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV GXULQJ DQG DIWHU UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH f 5HDGLQJ GLIILFXOWLHV RIWHQ DUH FDXVHG E\ GHILFLWV LQ SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV 6WDQRYLFK f 3KRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ UHIHUV WR DQ LQGLYLGXDOfV DELOLW\ WR FRUUHFWO\ UHFHLYH LQWHUSUHW DQG XVH SKRQRORJLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ RUDO DQG ZULWWHQ ODQJXDJH )HOWRQ t 3HSSHU :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f 7KH WHPSRUDO EDQN RI WKH V\OYLDQ ILVVXUH FRPSULVHV DQ DUHD RI WKH KXPDQ EUDLQ NH\ WR ODQJXDJH SURFHVVLQJ /HRQDUG HW DO f 7KH DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH LV WKRXJKW WR EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LQ FKLOGUHQ XQGHU \HDUV RI DJH /HRQDUG HW DO f /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP ZDV HOHYDWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ LQ FKLOGUHQ XQGHU \HDUV RI DJH ZKR KDG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV 7KLV FURVV VHFWLRQDO VWXG\ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV PD\ EH UHODWHG WR RQH VSHFLILF EUDLQ VWUXFWXUH /HRQDUG HW DO f $OWKRXJK VWXGLHV KDYH OLQNHG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV WR ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ DQG WR WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH QR VWXGLHV RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG LWV UHODWLRQVKLS WR EUDLQ GHYHORSPHQW ZLWKLQ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ ZKR KDYH MXVW EHJXQ RU KDG QR IRUPDO WUDLQLQJ LQ UHDGLQJ FRXOG EH ORFDWHG 7KLV VWXG\ LQYHVWLJDWHV WKH DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH LQ WKH WHPSRUDO EDQN RI WKH V\OYLDQ ILVVXUH DQG LWV UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWK SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV UDSLG QDPLQJ DQG HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ LQ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ

PAGE 8

&+$37(5 5(9,(: 2) /,7(5$785( 3KRQRORJLFDO 'HYHORSPHQW /HDUQLQJ WR UHDG LV D FRPSOH[ SURFHVV RQH PRVW DGXOWV WDNH IRU JUDQWHG :KHQ OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG FKLOGUHQ ILUVW PXVW OHDUQ WR UHFRJQL]H OHWWHUV DQG WKHQ SDLU WKRVH OHWWHUV ZLWK VRXQGV LQ RUGHU WR GHFRGH ZRUGV 7KH DELOLW\ WR VHJPHQW VHQWHQFHV LQWR LQGLYLGXDO ZRUGV LV D SUHUHTXLVLWH VNLOO IRU UHDGLQJ (YHQ WKLV DSSDUHQWO\ VLPSOH VNLOO LV RIWHQ DFTXLUHG JUDGXDOO\ GXULQJ WKH SUHVFKRRO \HDUV
PAGE 9

PLVWDNHV ZKHQ GHFRGLQJ VHQWHQFHV LQWR ZRUGV EHIRUH PDVWHULQJ WKH DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ LQGLYLGXDO ZRUGV 7KH\ PD\ PLVWDNH V\OODEOHV IRU ZRUGV DQG QRW UHFRJQL]H SUHSRVLWLRQV DV LQGHSHQGHQW ZRUGV 3KRQRORJLFDO 3URFHVVLQJ 3KRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ UHIHUV WR DQ LQGLYLGXDOfV DELOLW\ WR FRUUHFWO\ UHFHLYH LQWHUSUHW DQG XVH SKRQRORJLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ RUDO DQG ZULWWHQ ODQJXDJH )HOWRQ t 3HSSHU :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f 3KRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ VNLOOV DUH QHFHVVDU\ WR DFFRPSOLVK WKH GHFRGLQJ RI ZRUGV LQWR WKHLU FRPSRQHQW VRXQGV DQG WKXV LQWR UHFRJQL]DEOH ZRUGV 7KUHH W\SHV RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV DUH FULWLFDO IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI EDVLF UHDGLQJ VNLOOV SKRQRORJLFDO UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVV SKRQHWLF UHFRGLQJ WR PDLQWDLQ LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ ZRUNLQJ PHPRU\ DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV )HOWRQ t 3HSSHU :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f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f DQG DUH YLHZHG DV DQ LQGLFDWRU RI VHYHUH UHDGLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH :ROIH )HOWRQ 1D\ORU t :RRG

PAGE 10

f ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR RWKHU SURFHVVHV WKH UDSLG QDPLQJ RI FRORUV QXPEHUV DQG OHWWHUV UHTXLUHV HIILFLHQW DQG IOXLG UHWULHYDO RI SKRQRORJLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP ORQJWHUP PHPRU\ :KLOH UHDGLQJ FKLOGUHQ PXVW UHWULHYH SKRQHPHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK OHWWHUV 7KH HIILFLHQF\ ZLWK ZKLFK FKLOGUHQ DUH DEOH WR UHWULHYH SKRQRORJLFDO FRGHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQGLYLGXDO SKRQHPHV LQIOXHQFHV WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK SKRQRORJLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ LV XVHIXO LQ GHFRGLQJ SULQWHG ZRUGV
PAGE 11

HQDEOHV WKH VRXQGV WR EH PDLQWDLQHG HIILFLHQWO\ LQ ZRUNLQJ PHPRU\ GXULQJ RQJRLQJ SURFHVVLQJ 3KRQHWLF UHFRGLQJ LV WKRXJKW WR EH LPSRUWDQW WR WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI EHJLQQLQJ UHDGLQJ :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f 7KH EHJLQQLQJ UHDGHU PXVW GHFRGH D VHULHV RI YLVXDOO\SUHVHQWHG OHWWHUV VWRUH WKH VRXQGV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH OHWWHUV LQ WHPSRUDU\ VWRUDJH DQG EOHQG WKH FRQWHQWV RI WKH WHPSRUDU\ VWRUDJH WR IRUP ZRUGV :KLOH VRXQGLQJ RXW fFDUf WKH UHDGHU PXVW GHFRGH LW LQWR WKH LQGLYLGXDO SKRQHPHV fFDUf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t 7HUUHOO f 6SHHFK LV UHSUHVHQWHG DW WKH SKRQHWLF OHYHO E\ WKH SKRQH LH D VHW RI VSHHFK VRXQGV IRXQG LQ ODQJXDJHVf :DJQHU t 0F%ULGH&KDQJ :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f 0LGZHVWHUQ VSRNHQ (QJOLVK FDQ EH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ D WRWDO RI SKRQHPHV YRZHO DQG FRQVRQDQWf 'HQHV t 3LQVRQ DV FLWHG LQ :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f /HWWHUV ZLWKLQ WKH DOSKDEHW XVXDOO\ DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK PRUH WKDQ RQH SKRQH (YHU\ VSRNHQ ZRUG LQ WKH (QJOLVK ODQJXDJH FDQ EH JHQHUDWHG E\ JHQHUDWHG E\ FRPELQLQJ WKHVH EDVLF VRXQGV :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH f 2I WKH QHDUO\ LQILQLWH QXPEHU RI SRVVLEOH VRXQG FRPELQDWLRQV IRXQG ZLWKLQ D ODQJXDJH RQO\ D VPDOO SHUFHQWDJH DUH XVHG DQG RI WKRVH XVHG WKH\ RIWHQ VKDUH FRPPRQ FRPELQDWLRQV .QRZOHGJH RI WKH SKRQRORJLFDO VWUXFWXUH

PAGE 12

RI ZRUGV VKRXOG DVVLVW EHJLQQLQJ UHDGHUV LQ WKHLU DWWHPSWV WR PDVWHU WKH DOSKDEHWLF IRUP RI WKHLU VSRNHQ ODQJXDJH 7KDW LV D EHJLQQLQJ UHDGHU ZRXOG UHFRJQL]H WKDW fEDWf VRXQGV OLNH fIDWf DQG WKXV SUREDEO\ VKDUHV FRPPRQ OHWWHUV 7KH SHUFHLYHGVRXQG GLVWLQFWLRQV HJ WKH VRXQG RI WKH OHWWHU W GLIIHUV LQ WKH ZRUGV WHQ DQG VWRSf DUH DOORSKRQHV UHODWHG SKRQHV WKDW DUH FRPELQHG LQWR IDPLOLHV FDOOHG SKRQHPHV 3KRQHPHV UHSUHVHQW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ VSHHFK VRXQGV WKDW VLJQDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH PHDQLQJ RI ZRUGV KHDUG LQ HYHU\GD\ VSHHFK :DJQHU t 0F%ULGH&KDQJ f 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV FDQ EH WHVWHG E\ KDYLQJ SHUVRQV FRXQW WKH QXPEHU RI VRXQGV LQ D ZRUG UHYHUVH WKH RUGHU RI VRXQGV LQ D ZRUG DQG FRPELQH LVRODWHG LQGLYLGXDO VRXQGV WR IRUP D ZRUG :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f 'LIILFXOWLHV ZLWK IRUPLQJ SUHFLVH SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQ ORQJWHUP PHPRU\ KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG DV D SRVVLEOH FDXVH RI WKH SKRQRORJLFDO ZHDNQHVVHV FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI G\VOH[LD (OEUR )RZOHU f 'LVWLQFWQHVV RI SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LV UHIHUUHG WR DV WKH PDJQLWXGH RI WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ D UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LWV QHLJKERUV (OEUR f 7KH GLVWLQFWQHVV K\SRWKHVLV DV LW UHODWHV WR UHDGLQJ GLIILFXOWLHV SURSRVHV WKDW FKLOGUHQ ZKR KDYH VHYHUH GLIILFXOWLHV LQ OHDUQLQJ WKH DOSKDEHWLF SULQFLSOH LQ UHDGLQJ SRVVHVV UHODWLYHO\ LQGLVWLQFW SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RU KDYH RWKHU GLIILFXOWLHV LQ DFFHVVLQJ GLVWLQFW SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV (OEUR f 7KH GLVWLQFWQHVV RI SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQIOXHQFHV WKH VSHHG DQG DFFXUDF\ RI GLIIHUHQW SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV 7KH GLVWLQFWQHVV K\SRWKHVLV VXJJHVWV WKDW UHGXFHG GLVWLQFWQHVV OHYHOV PD\ EH D FDXVH RI WKH ZHOOGRFXPHQWHG SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ GLIILFXOWLHV LQ G\VOH[LD '\VOH[LF DGXOWV ZHUH IRXQG EH VSHFLILFDOO\ LPSDLUHG LQ WKHLU DELOLW\ WR GLVWLQFWO\ SURQRXQFH WDUJHW

PAGE 13

ZRUGV ZKHQ FRPSDUHG ZLWK FRQWUROV (OEUR 1LHOVHQ t 3HWHUVHQ f &KLOGUHQ ZHUH JLYHQ VHYHUDO WHVWV RI ODQJXDJH DELOLWLHV LH SKRQHPH DZDUHQHVV V\OODEOH DZDUHQHVV PRUSKHPH DZDUHQHVV SKRQHPH GLVFULPLQDWLRQ YHUEDO VKRUWWHUP PHPRU\ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ DQG DUWLFXODWRU\ IOXHQF\f SUHUHDGLQJ DELOLWLHV DQG FRJQLWLYH DELOLW\ LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQ (OEUR %RUVWURP t 3HWHUVHQ f 7KH\ ZHUH WHVWHG DJDLQ DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI VHFRQG JUDGH 7KH ODQJXDJH PHDVXUHV LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQ ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRUV RI SRVVLEOH G\VOH[LD 1RQYHUEDO ,4 LH 5DYHQfV 3URJUHVVLYH 0DWULFHVf GLG QRW SUHGLFW ODWHU UHDGLQJ SUREOHPV 7KH WKUHH NLQGHUJDUWHQ PHDVXUHV IRXQG WR LQGHSHQGHQWO\ SUHGLFW G\VOH[LD ZHUH OHWWHU NQRZOHGJH LH QDPLQJ OHWWHUVf SKRQHPH DZDUHQHVV DQG GLVWLQFWQHVV RI SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ 7KHVH VWXGLHV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH TXDOLW\ RI SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQ ODQJXDJH PD\ SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPH DZDUHQHVV DV LW ODWHU UHODWHV WR UHDGLQJ 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV KDV GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RU FRPSRQHQWV VRPH RI ZKLFK DUH PRUH GLIILFXOW WKDQ RWKHUV WR PDVWHU )LYH OHYHOV RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG $GDPV 6QLGHU f 7KH DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI VRXQGV LQ VSRNHQ ODQJXDJH LV WKH ILUVW DQG HDVLHVW OHYHO 7KH DELOLW\ WR UK\PH LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ $ \HDU ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXG\ IRXQG WKDW WKH GHJUHH RI DZDUHQHVV RI UK\PH DQG DOOLWHUDWLRQ FKLOGUHQ DFTXLUHG EHIRUH WKH\ ZHQW WR VFKRRO LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKHLU HYHQWXDO VXFFHVV LQ OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG DQG VSHOO %UDGOH\ t %U\DQW f $ SRVLWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH GHWHFWLRQ DQG SURGXFWLRQ RI UK\PH DQG HDUO\ UHDGLQJ DOVR ZDV IRXQG LQ D ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXG\ 0DFOHDQ %U\DQW t %UDGOH\ f 7KH XVH RI UK\PH DQG DOOLWHUDWLRQ ZKHQ FRPSDULQJ DQG FRQWUDVWLQJ VRXQGV LQ ZRUGV LV WKH VHFRQG OHYHO RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV $Q DELOLW\ WR JURXS ZRUGV ZLWK VLPLODU

PAGE 14

RU GLVVLPLODU VRXQGV DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ PLGGOH RU HQG RI D ZRUG HJ VKRH DQG VKLUW UDW DQG WDS EDFN DQG UDFNf GLVSOD\V WKLV VNLOO 7KH EOHQGLQJ RI VSOLW V\OODEOHV LH WR LGHQWLI\ D ZRUG ZKHQ HDFK V\OODEOH LV SURQRXQFHG VHSDUDWHO\f DQG VSOLWWLQJ FRPSOHWH ZRUGV FRPSULVHV WKH WKLUG OHYHO RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV 7KH FKLOG PXVW EH DZDUH WKDW ZRUGV FDQ EH GLYLGHG LQWR WKHLU FRUUHVSRQGLQJ SKRQHPHV WKH FKLOG PXVW DOVR EH IDPLOLDU ZLWK KRZ WKH SKRQHPHV VRXQG ZKHQ SURGXFHG LQ LVRODWLRQ 3KRQHPLF VHJPHQWDWLRQ WKH IRXUWK OHYHO UHIHUV WR WKH DELOLW\ WR LVRODWH LQGLYLGXDO VRXQGV LQ V\OODEOHV HJ WR SURQRXQFH HDFK VHSDUDWH SKRQHPH LQ D ZRUGf 7KH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV E\ DGGLQJ PRYLQJ RU RPLWWLQJ WKHP WR PDNH QHZ ZRUGV LH UHPRYH WKH 7 VRXQG IURP VOLGH WR SURGXFH fVLGHff FRQVWLWXWHV WKH ILIWK DQG PRVW DGYDQFHG OHYHO RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV 3KRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ DQG SKRQHPH VHJPHQWDWLRQ SUHGLFW EHJLQQLQJ UHDGLQJ DFTXLVLWLRQ 7KHVH VNLOOV JHQHUDOO\ DUH XQDWWDLQDEOH E\ FKLOGUHQ ZKR KDYH UHFHLYHG QR IRUPDO UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ ZKLFK DGGV VXSSRUW IRU WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV $GDPV f 5HDGLQJ $QG ,WV 5HODWLRQVKLS 7R 3KRQRORJLFDO 3URFHVVLQJ 7KH FRRFFXUUHQFH RI GHILFLWV LQ QDPLQJVSHHG DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV KDV EHHQ IRXQG LQ SHUVRQV ZLWK VHYHUH UHDGLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH :ROIH )HOWRQ 1D\ORU t :RRG f 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV QHFHVVDU\ IRU UHDGLQJ DQG VSHOOLQJ LQ (QJOLVK EHFDXVH WKH ODQJXDJH LV DOSKDEHWLF LH WKH OHWWHUV UHSUHVHQW VRXQGVf 7KH PHDQLQJ RI D ZRUG LV IRXQG ZKHQ WKH OHWWHUV DUH WUDQVODWHG LQWR D ZRUG XVHG LQ RQHfV YRFDEXODU\ WKURXJK D SURFHVV FDOOHG GHFRGLQJ :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ 6QLGHU f 7KH (QJOLVK ZULWLQJ V\VWHP XVHV V\PEROV LH OHWWHUVf WR UHSUHVHQW VSRNHQ ODQJXDJH DW LWV SKRQRORJLFDO OHYHO 7KH EHJLQQLQJ UHDGHU PXVW OHDUQ WKDW SULQWHG

PAGE 15

V\PEROV UHSUHVHQW XQLWV RI VSHHFK &URZGHU 6QLGHU f 7KH ZULWWHQ ZRUG UHSUHVHQWV WKH VRXQGV LQ WKH ZRUG EHLQJ UHDG RU SURQRXQFHG EXW ZLWK DOWHUDWLRQV WKDW RIWHQ UHIOHFW D ZRUGfV PHDQLQJ IRU H[DPSOH fKHUGf DQG fKHDUGf &URZGHU f 7KH PRVW GLIILFXOW SDUW RI OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG LV OHDUQLQJ WKDW SULQWHG V\PEROV UHSUHVHQW VSHFLILF SKRQHPHV D SHUVRQ PXVW EHFRPH DZDUH RI WKH SKRQRORJLFDO SULQFLSOHV LQ (QJOLVK 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV GHYHORSV DW DERXW WKH WLPH FKLOGUHQ W\SLFDOO\ DUH WDXJKW WR UHDG LQ VFKRRO :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f :KHQ OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG WKRVH ZLWK SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV KDYH D QXPEHU RI DGYDQWDJHV RYHU WKRVH ZKRVH SKRQHPLF VNLOOV DUH QRW ZHOO GHYHORSHG :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ f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fV LPSOLFLW NQRZOHGJH DFTXLUHG IURP VSHDNLQJ DQG OLVWHQLQJ /RQJLWXGLQDO VWXGLHV IRXQG D SUHGLFWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ 6QLGHU 0DF'RQDOG t &RUQZDOO f &RUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ NLQGHUJDUWHQHUVf SHUIRUPDQFH RQ SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV WDVNV DQG WKHLU ZRUGn UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DW WKH HQG RI ILUVW JUDGH W\SLFDOO\ IDOO LQ WKH WR UDQJH 7RUJHVHQ :DJQHU t 5DVKRWWH f 3KRQHPH VHJPHQWDWLRQ WKH DELOLW\ WR VWULS WKH LQLWLDO FRQVRQDQW VRXQG DQG WKH DELOLW\ WR VXEVWLWXWH WKH LQLWLDO FRQVRQDQW VRXQG LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQ SUHGLFWHG UHDGLQJ DFKLHYHPHQW LH ZRUG DQDO\VLV DQG UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ VXEWHVWVf

PAGE 16

DW WKH HQG RI VHFRQG JUDGH DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH &DOLIRUQLD $FKLHYHPHQW 7HVW DQG ,RZD 7HVW RI %DVLF 6NLOOV 6QLGHU f 7KLUW\WZR \HDUROG )LQQLVK FKLOGUHQ ZHUH DVVHVVHG WZLFH ILUVW RQ HQWHULQJ ILUVW JUDGH IRU SKRQHPLF VNLOOV DQG PRWLYDWLRQDO RULHQWDWLRQV DQG DJDLQ DW WKH HQG RI ILUVW JUDGH IRU ZRUG UHDGLQJ VNLOOV 7KH DELOLW\ WR GHOHWH D V\OODEOH IURP D ZRUG f EOHQG VRXQGV f QDPH WKH LQLWLDO VRXQG RI D ZRUG f GHOHWH WKH LQLWLDO VRXQG RI D ZRUG f DQG WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKH IRXU WDVNV WR IRUP D SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VFRUH f ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHODWHG Sf WR ILUVWJUDGH ZRUGUHDGLQJ VNLOO 6DORQHQ /HSOD t 1LHPL f 7KH DQDO\WLF DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV ZDV WKH VWURQJHVW GHWHUPLQDQW RI UHDGLQJ DQG ZULWLQJ DPRQJ VHFRQGJUDGH 6ZHGLVK VWXGHQWV /XQGEHUJ 2ORIVVRQ t :DOO f 7ZRKXQGUHG FKLOGUHQ ZHUH DVVHVVHG ILUVW LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQ DJDLQ RQH \HDU ODWHU DW WKH HQG RI ILUVW JUDGH !c f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f DQG YRFDEXODU\ GHYHORSPHQW ZHUH FRQWUROOHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV 0DF'RQDOG t &RUQZDOO f 6XUSULVLQJO\ 6(6 YRFDEXODU\ GHYHORSPHQW ZRUG

PAGE 17

UHFRJQLWLRQ DQG VSHOOLQJ DFKLHYHPHQW DVVHVVHG DW NLQGHUJDUWHQ ZHUH XQFRUUHODWHG ZLWK UHDGLQJ DQG VSHOOLQJ DFKLHYHPHQW \HDUV ODWHU 5HDGLQJ ,QVWUXFWLRQ LV LPSRUWDQW WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV /RQJLWXGLQDO HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV LH D EURDG DZDUHQHVV RI WKH VRXQG VWUXFWXUHV LQ ODQJXDJHf DQG OLWHUDF\ GHYHORS DV D UHVXOW RI UHFLSURFDO LQIOXHQFHV :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH f )XUWKHUPRUH WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DOSKDEHWLF DZDUHQHVV DQG SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV LV UHFLSURFDO :DJQHU HW DO 0H *XLQQHVV 0H *XLQQHVV t 'RQRKXH f +LVWRULFDOO\ WKH QDWXUH RI WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV ZDV GHEDWHG %DUURQ :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ :RRG t 7HUUHOO f 5HFDOO WKDW SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV WKH NQRZOHGJH RI WKH SKRQHPLF VWUXFWXUH RI ZRUGV 6QLGHU :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ :RRG t 7HUUHOO f $ GLVDJUHHPHQW DPRQJ VFKRODUV FHQWHUHG RQ ZKHWKHU SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DULVHV DV D UHVXOW RI UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ RU LV PHUHO\ SDUW RI WKH QDWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV :DJQHU t 7RUJHVHQ :RRG t 7HUUHOO f $GDPV f VWDWHG WKDW FKLOGUHQfV NQRZOHGJH RI SKRQHPHV LV KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG EHIRUH WR OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG 6KH DGGV WKDW LI LW ZHUH QRW FKLOGUHQ FRXOG QRW SURGXFH QRU XQGHUVWDQG RUDO ODQJXDJH +RZHYHU DFFRUGLQJ WR $GDPV FKLOGUHQfV NQRZOHGJH RI SKRQHPHV LV D ZRUNLQJ NQRZOHGJH DQG QRW DW D FRQVFLRXV OHYHO 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV EHFRPHV FRQVFLRXV RQO\ ZKHQ LW LV WDXJKW VSHFLILFDOO\ DQG LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK WKH OHDUQLQJ RI WKH DOSKDEHWLF VFULSW 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VHHPV WR UHO\ RQ D FKLOG EHLQJ LQ D VLWXDWLRQ LQ ZKLFK WKH VNLOO LV UHTXLUHG 7KDW VLWXDWLRQ RFFXUV ZKHQ

PAGE 18

FKLOGUHQ OHDUQ WR UHDG $GDPV f 6KH DGGV WKDW SUDFWLFH DQG WUDLQLQJ DUH PRUH LPSRUWDQW WKDQ DJH DQG PDWXUDWLRQ WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV 5HVHDUFK KDV EHHQ FRQGXFWHG ZLWK QRQUHDGHUV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI UHDGLQJ VNLOOV ZDV VWXGLHG LQ LOOLWHUDWH 3RUWXJXHVH DGXOWV ZKR KDG UHFHLYHG QR UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ 0RU£LV &DU\ $OHJUD t %HUWHOVRQ f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b RI WKH ZRUGV DQG b RI WKH QRQZRUGV ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH UHDGLQJ JURXS UHDG FRUUHFWO\ b RI WKH ZRUGV DQG b RI WKH QRQZRUGV UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,Q WKH GHOHWLRQ WDVN WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV GHOHWHG WKH ILUVW VRXQG 7KH LOOLWHUDWH JURXS ZDV DEOH WR FRUUHFWO\ GHOHWH WKH VRXQG b RI WKH WLPH IRU ZRUGV DQG b IRU QRQZRUGV +RZHYHU WKH OLWHUDWH JURXS FRUUHFWO\ GHOHWHG WKH VRXQG b RI WKH WLPH IRU ZRUGV DQG b RI WKH WLPH IRU QRQZRUGV 7KHVH UHVXOWV LQGLFDWH WKDW SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV GRHV QRW DULVH VSRQWDQHRXVO\ /HDUQLQJ WR UHDG UHJDUGOHVV RI DJH UHTXLUHV WKDW SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV PDQLIHVW LWVHOI 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV SUHVHQW EHIRUH UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ /XQGEHUJ f EHOLHYHV WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LI VROHO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ UHDGLQJ

PAGE 19

LQVWUXFWLRQ ZRXOG QRW H[LVW LQ SUHVFKRRO SUHOLWHUDWH FKLOGUHQ /XQGEHUJ UHYLHZHG D VXEVHW RI QRQUHDGHUV LQ D SUHYLRXVO\ FROOHFWHG GDWD VHW /XQGEHUJ HW DO f 1LQH RI WKH FKLOGUHQ FRXOG VHJPHQW SKRQHPHV DQG IRXU ZHUH DEOH WR DFKLHYH IDYRUDEOH VFRUHV RQ PRUH FRPSOH[ SKRQHPHPDQLSXODWLRQ WDVNV ,Q DQRWKHU VWXG\ D VDPSOH RI 6FDQGLQDYLDQ SUHVFKRRO FKLOGUHQ FRUUHFWO\ FRPSOHWHG b RI WKH UK\PLQJ WDVNV b RI WKH V\OODEOH VHJPHQWDWLRQ WDVNV DQG b RI WKH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DFWLYLWLHV /XQGEHUJ f /XQGEHUJ VXJJHVWV WKHVH VWDWLVWLFV RIIHU HYLGHQFH WKDW GHVSLWH WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV EHLQJ ORZ LQ SUHVFKRROHUV WKH UHDOL]DWLRQ WKDW VRPH FKLOGUHQ DUH DEOH WR H[KLELW SKRQHPLF DELOLW\ GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV QRW PHUHO\ D UHVXOW RI UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ +RZHYHU WKHVH VWXGLHV GLG QRW WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW LQVWUXFWLRQ SURYLGHG E\ SDUHQWV RU H[SRVXUH WR OLWHUDWXUH LQ WKH KRPH HQYLURQPHQW 3UHUHDGLQJ SUHVFKRRO FKLOGUHQ ZKR VKRZ VLJQV RI HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ GHPRQVWUDWH KLJKHU SKRQHPLF DQG SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV WKDQ WKHLU VDPH DJHG SHHUV %RZH\ f (PHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV LQFOXGH NQRZOHGJH RI OHWWHUV UHDGLQJ VLPSOH ZRUGV UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ %RZH\ 5D] t %U\DQW f ,Q FRQWUDVW SKRQHPLF SURFHVVLQJ VNLOOV LQYROYH WKH DELOLW\ WR FRUUHFWO\ UHFHLYH LQWHUSUHW DQG XVH SKRQRORJLFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ )HOWRQ t 3HSSHU f 7HUUHOO DQG :RRG f IRXQG WKDW SUHVFKRRO FKLOGUHQ ZKR UHFHLYHG QR H[SOLFLW WUDLQLQJ LQ UHDGLQJ H[KLELW ERWK VLPSOH DQG FRPSOH[ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV 7KLUW\ DQG \HDUROG QDWLYH (QJOLVKVSHDNHUV ZLWK QR IRUPDO UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ ZHUH JLYHQ SKRQRORJLFDO WDVNV 7KH WDVNV LQFOXGHG VHQWHQFH VHJPHQWDWLRQ V\OODEOHRQVHWULPHSKRQHPH VHJPHQWDWLRQ V\OODEOHRQVHWULPHSKRQHPH EOHQGLQJ UK\PH GHWHFWLRQ DOOLWHUDWLRQ WDVNV SKRQHPH GHOHWLRQ DQG OHWWHUVRXQG NQRZOHGJH &RUUHFW UHVSRQVHV RQ PHDVXUHV RI VLPSOH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HJ OHWWHU

PAGE 20

VRXQG NQRZOHGJHf DQG DOOLWHUDWLRQ GHWHFWLRQ HJ WKH DELOLW\ WR GHWHFW FRPPRQ LQLWLDO VRXQGV DFURVV ZRUGVf ZHUH b DQG b UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH FKLOGUHQ REWDLQHG DQ DYHUDJH RI b DFFXUDF\ RQ WKH SKRQHPH GHOHWLRQ WDVN HJ D WHVW RI FRPSOH[ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVVf /RZHU OHYHOV RI DWWDLQPHQW ZHUH H[KLELWHG RQ WKH SKRQHPH VHJPHQWDWLRQ WDVN HJ VSOLWWLQJ ZRUGV LQWR WKHLU SKRQHPH XQLWV b SKRQHPH EOHQGLQJ bf 7KLV HYLGHQFH VXSSRUWV WKH FRQWHQWLRQ WKDW VLPSOH DQG FRPSOH[ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV PD\ HPHUJH DV D SDUW RI WKH QDWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG ZLWKRXW VSHFLILF UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ 5HDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DUH UHFLSURFDO 2WKHUV SURSRVH UHFLSURFDO UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG UHDGLQJ %DUURQ t )RRUPDQ f &KLOGUHQ EHFRPH VHQVLWLYH WR V\OODEOHV DQG VXEV\OODELF SKRQRORJLFDO XQLWV EHIRUH WKH\ OHDUQ WR UHDG EXW WKH DOSKDEHWLF UHDGLQJ H[SHULHQFH LWVHOI PD\ EH QHFHVVDU\ WR WULJJHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI SKRQHPLF XQLWV RI VRXQG %RZH\ f 7KH UHFLSURFDO UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHDGLQJ DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV PD\ UHIOHFW WKH IDFW WKDW DOSKDEHWLF ZULWLQJ V\VWHPV V\PEROL]H D OLQHDU SKRQHPLF WUDQVFULSWLRQ RI VSRNHQ ODQJXDJH 7KLV UHODWLRQVKLS FUHDWHV D SDUDGR[ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQ DOSKDEHWLF ZULWLQJ V\VWHP DSSHDUV WR SUHVXSSRVH VHQVLWLYLW\ WR SKRQHPHV DV XQLWV RI VSRNHQ ODQJXDJH EXW XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQ DOSKDEHWLF ZULWLQJ V\VWHP LWVHOI DSSHDUV WR VWLPXODWH WKLV LQVLJKW %RZH\ f 3HUIHWWL %HFN %HOO DQG +XJKHV f IRXQG WKDW DOWKRXJK KDYLQJ VRPH SKRQHPLF NQRZOHGJH LV LPSRUWDQW IRU EHJLQQLQJ UHDGLQJ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKRQHPLF NQRZOHGJH DQG OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG LV UHFLSURFDO %DUURQ f VXJJHVWV WKDW SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV PD\ HPHUJH RQO\ DIWHU VSHFLILF LQVWUXFWLRQ LQ OLWHUDF\ 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS PD\ EH ELGLUHFWLRQDO $ ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXG\ :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ t

PAGE 21

5DVKRWWHf UHSRUWHG WKDW FDXVDO UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ DELOLWLHV DQG WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DUH ELGLUHFWLRQDO &KLOGUHQ ZHUH DVVHVVHG DQQXDOO\ ILUVW LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQ DQG ILQDOO\ LQ WKH VHFRQG JUDGH RQ WKH ILYH SUHYLRXVO\ GLVFXVVHG EDVLF OHYHOV RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ LH NQRZOHGJH RI UK\PH FRPSDULQJ DQG FRQWUDVWLQJ VRXQGV LQ ZRUGV EOHQGLQJ VSOLW V\OODEOHV SKRQHPLF VHJPHQWDWLRQ DQG SKRQHPLF PDQLSXODWLRQf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f 7KH\ IRXQG NLQGHUJDUWHQ FKLOGUHQ GLVSOD\ VRPH QDWXUDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKHLU SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV +RZHYHU RQFH WKH\ DWWHQG VFKRRO WKHLU UDWH RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LQFUHDVHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ 5HDGLQJ 6NLOOV DQG 7KHLU 5HODWLRQVKLS WR ,QWHOOLJHQFH DQG 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV ,QWHOOHFWXDO DELOLW\ LV WKH VLQJOH EHVW SUHGLFWRU RI VFKRODVWLF DFKLHYHPHQW 6DWWOHU +HUUQVWHLQ t 0XUUD\ f )XUWKHUPRUH LQWHOOLJHQFH KDV EHHQ IRXQG WR EH KLJKO\ SUHGLFWLYH RI UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ &DUYHU &RUQZDOO f 7KH 5DYHQ 3URJUHVVLYH 0DWULFHV DQG WKH 1DWLRQDO 5HDGLQJ 6WDQGDUGV 156f ZHUH XVHG WR DVVHVV LQWHOOLJHQFH DQG LWV UHODWLRQVKLS WR UHDGLQJ DFKLHYHPHQW LQ VHFRQG WR WZHOIWKJUDGH VWXGHQWV IURP D UXUDO PLGZHVWHUQ VFKRRO V\VWHP &DUYHU f 7KH 5DYHQ ZDV FKRVHQ EHFDXVH LW GRHV

PAGE 22

QRW UHDGLO\ WDS D UHFRJQL]HG VXEVNLOO RI UHDGLQJ EXW LQVWHDG PHDVXUHV DEVWUDFW UHDVRQLQJ DELOLW\ RU J 7KH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH 5DYHQ DQG WKH 156 UDQJHG IURP WR LQ HDFK RI WKH JUDGHV DQG LQGLFDWHV D VWURQJ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ LQWHOOHFWXDO DQG UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ ,Q D VHSDUDWH VWXG\ WKH YHUEDO FRPSUHKHQVLRQ IDFWRU RI WKH :HFKVOHU ,QWHOOLJHQFH 6FDOH IRU &KLOGUHQ5HYLVHG :,6&5f ZDV IRXQG WR EH WKH EHVW SUHGLFWRU RI UHDGLQJ SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ VSHOOLQJ SURVH SDVVDJH VSHHG UHDGLQJ DFFXUDF\ VFRUHV HYHQ ZKHQ FRQWUROOLQJ IRU DJH DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV DPRQJ FKLOGUHQ ZLWK UHDGLQJ DQG VSHOOLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV &RUQZDOO f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV 6(6f UHIOHFWV DQ LQGLYLGXDO RU IDPLO\nV ILQDQFLDO UHVRXUFHV RFFXSDWLRQ DQG HGXFDWLRQDO EDFNJURXQG 6(6 LV VWURQJO\ OLQNHG WR LQWHOOHFWXDO DELOLW\ DQG DFKLHYHPHQW LQFOXGLQJ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV 7KH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ D IDPLO\fV 6(6 DQG FKLOGUHQfV LQWHOOLJHQFH DYHUDJHV DERXW 6DWWOHU $QGHUVVRQ 6RPPHUIHOW 6RQQDQGHU t $KOVWHQ f $PRQJ ILYH \HDUROGV IDPLO\ LQFRPH FRUUHODWHG PRUH KLJKO\ ZLWK LQWHOOLJHQFH WKDQ GLG PDWHUQDO HGXFDWLRQ HWKQLFLW\ DQG IHPDOH KHDGVKLS RI WKH KRXVHKROG 'XQFDQ %URRNV*XQQ t .OHEDQRY f 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH ZD\ FKLOGUHQ UHDOL]H DQG XVH ODQJXDJH ZLWKLQ WKH VDPH FRQWH[W LV UHODWHG LQ SDUW WR WKH ODQJXDJH HQYLURQPHQW LQ ZKLFK WKH\ OLYH %HUQVWHLQ f &KLOGUHQ ZKR GLIIHU LQ WKHLU DFFHVV WR VSHHFK V\VWHPV RU FRGHV PD\ DFTXLUH TXLWH GLIIHUHQW VRFLDO DQG LQWHOOHFWXDO RULHQWDWLRQV DQG SURFHGXUHV GHVSLWH D FRPPRQ GHYHORSPHQWDO SRWHQWLDO %HUQVWHLQ f SURSRVHV WZR IXQGDPHQWDO W\SHV RI OLQJXLVWLF FRGHV HODERUDWHG DQG UHVWULFWHG ,Q HODERUDWHG FRGHV FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LV LQGLYLGXDOL]HG DQG WKH PHVVDJH LV VSHFLILF WR D SDUWLFXODU VLWXDWLRQ WRSLF RU SHUVRQ (ODERUDWHG FRGHV DUH PRUH

PAGE 23

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fV UHVWULFWHG LH VWDWXVRULHQWHGf RU HODERUDWHG LH HODERUDWHG DQG SHUVRQRULHQWHGf IRUPV ZHUH VWXGLHG LQ QRQZRUNLQJ $IULFDQ $PHULFDQ PRWKHUV DQG WKHLU \HDUROG FKLOGUHQ +HVV t 6KLSPDQ 2OLP +HVV t 6KLSPDQ f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

PAGE 24

WKH GRJfV HDUV KH ZLOO JHW DQJU\ DQG PD\ ELWH \RXf 7KH LQWHUQDOL]LQJ DSSURDFK PDNHV WKH FKLOG DZDUH WKDW FKRLFHV DUH RSHQ WR KLP DQG HQFRXUDJHV KLP WR FKRRVH ZLVHO\ DQG SURPRWHV LQWHUQDO FRJQLWLYH FRQWURO 7KH UHVHDUFKHUV GLYLGHG WKH ZRPHQ LQWR WKUHH JURXSV EDVHG RQ WKH PHWKRG XVHG E\ WKH ZRPHQ WR FRQWURO WKHLU FKLOGfV EHKDYLRU 7KH VWDWXVQRUPDWLYHRULHQWHG PRWKHU SUHVHQWHG UXOHV LQ DQ DVVLJQHG PDQQHU ZKHUH WKH RQO\ SRVVLELOLW\ IRU WKH FKLOG ZDV WR FRPSO\ LH DQ XQFULWLFDO DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH VRFLDO VWDWXVf 7KH SHUVRQDOVXEMHFWLYH WHFKQLTXHV WRRN LQWR DFFRXQW WKH TXDOLWLHV DQG UHDFWLRQV RI WKH SHUVRQV LQYROYHG &RJQLWLYHUDWLRQDO WHFKQLTXHV DSSHDOHG WR UDWLRQDO SULQFLSOHV DQG WKH REMHFWLYH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI YDULRXV DOWHUQDWLYHV RI DFWLRQ 7KH ODWWHU WZR PHWKRGV UHO\ KHDYLO\ RQ LQWHUQDOL]LQJ WHFKQLTXHV IRU EHKDYLRUDO UHJXODWLRQ 7KH PRWKHUV ZHUH FDWHJRUL]HG LQWR IRXU VRFLDO VWDWXV OHYHOV FROOHJHHGXFDWHG SURIHVVLRQDO H[HFXWLYH DQG PDQDJHULDO RFFXSDWLRQV VNLOOHG EOXHFROODU RFFXSDWLRQDO OHYHOV ZLWK QR PRUH WKDQ D KLJK VFKRRO HGXFDWLRQ XQVNLOOHG RU VHPLVNLOOHG RFFXSDWLRQDO OHYHOV ZLWK SUHGRPLQDQWO\ HOHPHQWDU\VFKRRO HGXFDWLRQ DQG XQVNLOOHG RU VHPLVNLOOHG RFFXSDWLRQV ZLWK DEVHQW IDWKHUV DQG WKH IDPLO\nV VXSSRUW FRPLQJ IURP SXEOLF DVVLVWDQFH 7KHVH PRWKHUV ZHUH LQWHUYLHZHG LQ WKHLU KRPHV DQG EURXJKW WR WKH XQLYHUVLW\ IRU WHVWLQJ 7KH PRWKHUVf UHVSRQVHV WR LQWHUYLHZ TXHVWLRQV ZHUH UHFRUGHG DQG VFRUHG 7KH PRWKHU ZDV WDXJKW WKUHH VLPSOH WDVNV E\ WKH VWDII PHPEHU DQG ZDV WKHQ DVNHG WR WHDFK WKHVH WDVNV WR WKHLU FKLOG 7KH WKUHH WDVNV ZHUH VRUW RU JURXS D QXPEHU RI SODVWLF WR\V E\ FRORU DQG IXQFWLRQ VRUW HLJKW EORFNV E\ WZR FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ WHDFK WKH FKLOG WR FRS\ ILYH GHVLJQV RQ DQ f(WFKD6NHWFKf WR\

PAGE 25

7KH FKLOGUHQ RI PRWKHUV ZKR XVHG VWDWXVQRUPDWLYH FRQWURO WHFKQLTXHV JHQHUDOO\ SHUIRUPHG DW D ORZHU FRJQLWLYH OHYHO WKDQ FKLOGUHQ RI PRWKHUV VKRZLQJ D SUHIHUHQFH IRU SHUVRQFHQWHUHG RU FRJQLWLYHUDWLRQDO WHFKQLTXHV 7KH FKLOGUHQ ZHUH DVVHVVHG ZLWK WKH 6WDQIRUG%LQHW )RUP /0f WKH FRQFHSWXDO VW\OH GLPHQVLRQV IURP WKH 6LJHO &RQFHSWXDO 6RUWLQJ 7DVN IRU &KLOGUHQ DQG YHUEDO DQG SK\VLFDO VFRUHV IURP D FRQFHSWDWWDLQPHQW EORFNVRUWLQJ WDVN 7KH VFRUHV RI PRWKHUVn ZLWK VWDWXVQRUPDWLYH RULHQWDWLRQV ZHUH QHJDWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK DOO PHDVXUHV RI WKH FKLOGfV DELOLW\ DQG SRVLWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH FKLOGfV LQDELOLW\ WR H[SODLQ WKH UDWLRQDOH EHKLQG KLV RU KHU GHFLVLRQV IRU FODVVLILFDWLRQ RQ WKH 6LJHO WDVN 7KH PRWKHUVf ODQJXDJH VW\OHV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHODWHG WR KHU FKLOGfV SHUIRUPDQFH RQ WKH YDULRXV FRJQLWLYH PHDVXUHV 7KH PHDVXUHV RI ODQJXDJH VW\OH LQFOXGHG PHDQ VHQWHQFH OHQJWK PHDQ SUHYHUE OHQJWK RI VHQWHQFH YHUE HODERUDWLRQ V\QWDFWLF HODERUDWLRQ DQG DEVWUDFWLRQ +LJK PDWHUQDO ODQJXDJH HODERUDWLRQ ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VWURQJHU FRJQLWLYH SHUIRUPDQFH $OO ODQJXDJH HODERUDWLRQ PHDVXUHV ZHUH QHJDWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH VWDWXVRULHQWDWLRQ EXW SRVLWLYHO\ FRUUHODWHG WR WKH SHUVRQDOVXEMHFWLYH DQG FRJQLWLYHUDWLRQDO RULHQWDWLRQV 7KH ODQJXDJH PHDVXUHV ZHUH QHJDWLYHO\ UHODWHG WR WKH PRWKHUVf XVH RI LPSHUDWLYHV LH PXVW GR WKLVf DV RSSRVHG WR PRWKHUV ZKR XVHG LQVWUXFWLRQV IRU JXLGLQJ KHU FKLOGfV EHKDYLRU 0RWKHUV RULHQWHG WRZDUG VWDWXVQRUPDWLYH FRQWURO XVLQJ WKH LPSHUDWLYH DQG UHVWULFWHG ODQJXDJH FRGHV WHQGHG WR EH IURP DPRQJ WKH ORZHU 6(6 JURXSV 0RWKHUV RULHQWHG WR SHUVRQDOVXEMHFWLYH RU FRJQLWLYHUDWLRQDO FRQWURO ZKR JDYH LQVWUXFWLRQV DQG HODERUDWHG ODQJXDJH VW\OHV WHQGHG WR EH IURP WKH PLGGOHFODVV JURXS 7KH UHVHDUFKHUV

PAGE 26

FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH QDWXUH RI WKH ODQJXDJH XVHG E\ PRWKHUV KDV D VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI KHU FKLOGfV FRJQLWLYH DQG ODQJXDJH VNLOOV $ ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXG\ RI FKLOGUHQ DJHV WKUHH WKURXJK HLJKW IRXQG KRPH HQYLURQPHQW DV PHDVXUHG E\ IRXU VXEVFDOHV LH OHDUQLQJ PDWHULDOV VWLPXODWLRQ RI FRPPXQLFDWLYH FRPSHWHQFH SK\VLFDO HQYLURQPHQW DQG DFDGHPLF VWLPXODWLRQf RI WKH +RPH 2EVHUYDWLRQ IRU 0HDVXUHPHQW RI WKH (QYLURQPHQW &DOGZHOO t %UDGOH\ f DQG 6(6 WR SUHGLFW FKLOGUHQnV LQWHOOLJHQFH PRVW KLJKO\ 0ROIHVH 'L/DOOD t %XQFH f %LUWK ULVN IDFWRUV LH ELUWK FRPSOLFDWLRQV WKDW UHVXOWHG LQ WKH QHRQDWH EHLQJ SODFHG LQ D QHRQDWDO LQWHQVLYH FDUH QXUVHU\ EXW ZKLFK LQ WKHPVHOYHV ZHUH QRW OLNHO\ WR SURGXFH SHUPDQHQW FRJQLWLYH LPSDLUPHQWVf GLG QRW SUHGLFW LQWHOOLJHQFH DW DQ\ DJH DIWHU FRQWUROOLQJ IRU KRPH HQYLURQPHQW DQG 6(6 .LQGHUJDUWHQ FKLOGUHQ IURP PLGGOH 6(6 IDPLOLHV ZHUH IRXQG WR KDYH PRUH KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG SKRQRORJLFDO VWUXFWXUH WKDQ FKLOGUHQ IURP ORZ 6(6 IDPLOLHV :DOODFK :DOODFK 'R]LHU t .DSODQ f *URXS GLIIHUHQFHV RQ DXGLWRU\ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI SKRQHPHV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW +RZHYHU ZKHQ JLYHQ WDVNV RI SKRQHPLF DQDO\VLV FKRRVLQJ D SLFWXUH ZKRVH QDPH VWDUWV ZLWK WKH SKRQHPH DW LVVXH DQG LQGLFDWLQJ ZKHWKHU D ZRUG VWDUWV ZLWK WKH SKRQHPH DW LVVXHf PLGGOHFODVV VWXGHQWV RXWSHUIRUPHG ORZ 6(6 FKLOGUHQ S f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV ZDV IRXQG WR SUHGLFW UHDGLQJ SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV DQG WKH DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ ZRUGV &RUQZDOO f 0LGGOHFODVV SUHVFKRROHUV GLVSOD\HG PRUH DGYDQFHG SUHUHDGLQJ VNLOOV HJ SULQW SURGXFWLRQ SULQW GHFRGLQJ OLWHUDF\ NQRZOHGJH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO SULQW SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG VWRU\ XQGHUVWDQGLQJf WKDQ SUHVFKRROHUV LQ ORZHU VRFLRHFRQRPLF JURXSV GHVSLWH ERWK JURXSV

PAGE 27

DWWHQGLQJ fKLJK TXDOLW\f QXUVHU\ VFKRROV DQG NLQGHUJDUWHQ FODVVHV 'LFNLQVRQ t 6QRZ f $IULFDQ $PHULFDQV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR SRVVHVV QRQVWDQGDUG SKRQRORJLFDO V\QWDFWLF DQG PRUSKRORJLFDO IRUPV RI ODQJXDJH 5DWXVQNLN t .RHQLJVNQHFKW f $PRQJ $IULFDQ $PHULFDQ SUHVFKRRO FKLOGUHQ WKRVH IURP ORZHU 6(6 KRPHV XVHG PRUH QRQVWDQGDUG SKRQRORJLFDO DQG JUDPPDWLFDO FRPSRQHQWV RI ODQJXDJH WKDQ GLG WKRVH IURP PLGGOH 6(6 KRPHV 5DWXVQNLN t .RHQLJVNQHFKW f 6WURQJ OLQNV EHWZHHQ LQWHOOHFWXDO DELOLW\ DFDGHPLF DFKLHYHPHQW DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV KDYH EHHQ ZHOO HVWDEOLVKHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH 8QOHVV LQWHOOHFWXDO DELOLW\ LV FRQWUROOHG WKH UHVXOWV IURP VWXGLHV H[DPLQLQJ WKH LQIOXHQFH RI 6(6 PD\ EH PLVOHDGLQJ DV VXFK GDWD PD\ UHIOHFW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ LQWHOOLJHQFH 7KHUHIRUH WKH HIIHFWV RI WKHVH LQIOXHQFHV LH ,4 VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV JHQGHU DQG KDQGHGQHVVf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

PAGE 28

GHYDVWDWLQJ 7KH WHUP KRVSLWDOLVP ZDV FRLQHG E\ 6SLW] f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f IRXQG FKLOGUHQ ZKR FRQWLQXHG WR UHPDLQ LQ WKH VWHULOH HQYLURQPHQW IDUHG SRRUO\ LQ HYHU\ DUHD RI GHYHORSPHQW 7KLUW\VHYHQ SHUFHQW KDG GLHG 6SLW] f UHSRUWHG WKDW WKH GDPDJH LQIOLFWHG RQ WKH LQIDQWV E\ WKHLU EHLQJ GHSULYHG RI PDWHUQDO FDUH VWLPXODWLRQ DQG ORYH DV ZHOO DV E\ WKHLU EHLQJ FRPSOHWHO\ LVRODWHG ZDV LUUHSDUDEOH 7KH GHYHORSPHQWDO LPEDODQFH FDXVHG E\ WKH XQIDYRUDEOH HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV GXULQJ WKH FKLOGfV ILUVW \HDU SURGXFHV SV\FKRVRPDWLF GDPDJH WKDW FDQQRW EH UHSDLUHG E\ DQ\ NQRZQ LQWHUYHQWLRQV 6SLW] f 1HXURDQDWRPLFDO HIIHFWV RI HDUO\ VHQVRU\ GHSULYDWLRQ KDYH EHHQ VWXGLHG LQ ODERUDWRU\ DQLPDOV 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH EUDLQfV YLVXDO FHQWHU FRQQHFWLRQV KDV EHHQ VWXGLHG LQ GHSWK LQ ODERUDWRU\ DQLPDOV 'HSULYDWLRQ RI IRUP DQG OLJKW GXULQJ WKH ILUVW WKUHH PRQWKV RI OLIH LQ NLWWHQV OHG WR PDUNHG DEQRUPDOLWLHV LQFOXGLQJ EHKDYLRUDO EOLQGQHVV PRUSKRORJLFDO FKDQJHV LQ WKH ODWHUDO JHQLFXODWH ERG\ DQG WKH GLVUXSWLRQ RI LQQDWHO\GHWHUPLQHG FRUWLFDO FRQQHFWLRQV :LHVHO t +XEHL f $GGLWLRQDOO\ D

PAGE 29

NLWWHQfV FDSDFLW\ WR UHFRYHU IURP WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH HDUO\ YLVXDO GHSULYDWLRQ EHKDYLRUDOO\ PRUSKRORJLFDOO\ RU LQ WHUPV RI VLQJOH FHOO FRUWLFDO SK\VLRORJ\ ZDV VHYHUHO\ OLPLWHG HYHQ ZKHQ UHFRYHU\ SHULRGV H[WHQGHG RYHU PRUH WKDQ RQH \HDU 5DWV ZKR ZHUH UHDUHG LQ HQYLURQPHQWV ULFK LQ VWLPXOL ZHUH IRXQG WR KDYH KHDYLHU FHUHEUDO FRUWH[HV ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR WKHLU OLWWHUPDWHV UDLVHG LQ DQ LPSRYHULVKHG FRQGLWLRQ 5RVHQ]ZHLJ .UHFK %HQQHWW t 'LDPRQG f +DQGHGQHVV 7KH HIIHFWV RI KDQGHGQHVV DOVR FDQ LPSDFW QHXURDQDWRPLFDO GHYHORSPHQW +DQGHGQHVV +DUULV t &DUOVRQ f UHIHUV WR WKH DUPV DQG KDQGV EHLQJ DV\PPHWULFDO LQ XVH DQG IXQFWLRQ VR DV WR UHOLDEO\ IDYRU RQH KDQG RYHU WKH RWKHU DFURVV D UDQJH RI VNLOIXO DFWV HJ ZULWLQJ WKURZLQJ XVLQJ WRROVf 7KH GRPLQDQW ULJKWKDQG SUHIHUHQFH DPRQJ WKH PDMRULW\ RI KXPDQV LV EHOLHYHG WR H[WHQG IDU EDFN LQ WKH HYROXWLRQDU\ F\FOH $QQHWW f (YLGHQFH IURP DQFLHQW WRROV ZHDSRQV DQG DUW VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH SUHIHUHQFH IRU XVLQJ WKH ULJKW KDQG KDV H[LVWHG VLQFH WKH VWRQHDJH $QQHWW f +LVWRULFDO DUWLIDFWV DQG UHFRUGV VXJJHVW OHIWKDQGHUV DOZD\V ZHUH LQ WKH PLQRULW\ UDQJLQJ IURP RQO\ b WR b b RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ +DUULV t &DUOVRQ f $W SUHVHQW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ LV OHIWKDQGHG D SURSRUWLRQ HVWLPDWHG WR KDYH UHPDLQHG VWDEOH IRU WKH SDVW \HDUV 6DW] 6RSHU t 2UVLQL f $OWKRXJK ULJKWKDQGHG SHUVRQV FRPSULVH WKH PDMRULW\ OHIWKDQGHGQHVV LV GLVSURSRUWLRQDWHO\ SUHYDOHQW DPRQJ FKLOGUHQ ZLWK UHDGLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV .LQVERXUQH f /HIWKDQGHGQHVV LV PRUH IUHTXHQW LQ PHQ DQG PDOHV FRPSULVH WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKRVH GLDJQRVHG ZLWK DXWLVP G\VOH[LD VWXWWHULQJ DQG RWKHU GHYHORSPHQWDO GLVRUGHUV *HVFKZLQG t *DODEXUGD f 7KH ODWHUDOL]DWLRQ RI ODQJXDJH WR WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH

PAGE 30

DOPRVW DOZD\V RFFXUV LQ ULJKWKDQGHG LQGLYLGXDOV +RZHYHU WKH VSHHFK SDWWHUQ LQ OHIW KDQGHG LQGLYLGXDOV LV OHVV FHUWDLQ +DUULV t &DUOVRQ f 7KH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH LV ODWHUDOL]HG IRU ODQJXDJH LQ DERXW b WR b RI OHIWKDQGHUV ZLWK WKH UHPDLQLQJ b WR b EHLQJ ODWHUDOL]HG ULJKWZDUG RU ELODWHUDOO\ +DUULV t &DUOVRQ f +XPDQ %UDLQ 9ROXPH 7KH KXPDQ EUDLQ UHDFKHV LWV PD[LPXP VL]H LQ WKH ODWH WHHQV &DYLQHVV .HQQHG\ %DWHV DQG 0DNULV 'HNDEDQ t 6DGRZVN\ f 7KH LQFUHDVH LQ EUDLQ YROXPH GRHV QRW RFFXU LQ D OLQHDU IDVKLRQ 7KH UDWH RI JURZWK LV IDVWHVW GXULQJ IHWDO DQG HDUO\ SRVWQDWDO OLIH 7KH EUDLQ ZHLJKV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ J DW ZHHNV JHVWDWLRQ DQG J DW ELUWK $W PRQWKV WKH EUDLQ LV J D ILJXUH b RI LWV SURMHFWHG ZHLJKW RI J DW DJH DW DJH \HDUV WKLV ZHLJKW LV b RI LWV SURMHFWHG DGXOW VL]H /HPLUH /RHVHU /HHFK t $OYRUG f 7KH EUDLQ LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b RI LWV DGXOW VL]H E\ DJH ILYH 'HNDEDQ 'HNDEDQ t 6DGRZVN\ f $W DJH ILYH WKH UDWH RI EUDLQ JURZWK VORZV 'HNDEDQ t 6DGRZVN\ f 7KH EUDLQ SUXQHV LWV ZHDNHVW DQG XQXWLOL]HG V\QDSVHV WKURXJKRXW LWV GHYHORSPHQW 0DOH DQG )HPDOH %UDLQ 'LIIHUHQFHV %UDLQ ZHLJKW LV JUHDWHU LQ PDOHV WKDQ IHPDOHV DW DOO DJHV 'HNDEDQ t 6DGRZVN\ f 7KH EUDLQ YROXPH RI IHPDOH FKLOGUHQ LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b RI PDOH FKLOGUHQ RI WKH VDPH DJH &DYLQHVV HW DO f $EVROXWH FHUHEUDO YROXPH LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b ODUJHU LQ ER\V WKDQ JLUOV EXW WKH UHODWLYH SURSRUWLRQ RI WLVVXH DQG IOXLG YROXPHV LV VLPLODU 5HLVV $EUDPV 6LQJHU 5RVV 'HQFNOD f 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH LQ WRWDO FHUHEUXP VL]H EHWZHHQ PDOH DQG IHPDOH FKLOGUHQ ZDV VLJQLILFDQW DIWHU FRQWUROOLQJ IRU KHLJKW DQG ZHLJKW *LHGG *HLGG HW DO f 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH LQ YROXPH RI WKH ZKROH EUDLQ LV

PAGE 31

XQLIRUPO\ VFDOHG DPRQJ WKH PDMRU EUDLQ UHJLRQV FHUHEUXP FHUHEHOOXP DQG WKH EUDLQ VWHP &DYLQHVV HW DO f 6RPH EUDLQ UHJLRQV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR QRW IROORZ WKH DIRUHPHQWLRQHG SURSRUWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ JHQGHUV *HQGHU GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH WHPSRUDOH OREH VL]H ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW ZKHQ DGMXVWHG IRU WRWDO FHUHEUDO YROXPH *LHGG HW DK *LHGG HW DK f 7KH FDXGDWH KLSSRFDPSXV DQG SDOOLGLXP DUHDV DUH VLPLODU LQ VL]H LQ ERWK JHQGHUV ,QWHOOLJHQFH LQFUHDVHV ZLWK ODUJHU YROXPH WR D SRLQW UHDFKHV DQ DV\PSWRWH DQG VHHPLQJO\ GHFUHDVHV ZLWK WKH ODUJHVW FHUHEUDO YROXPHV 5HLVV HW DK f $ SRVWPRUWHP VWXG\ RI PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV DJHG WR IRXQG WKH YROXPH LQ ODQJXDJHDVVRFLDWHG FRUWLFDO UHJLRQV WR EH ODUJHU LQ IHPDOHV WKDQ PDOHV +DUDVW\ 'RXEOH +DOOLGD\ .ULO t 0F5LWFKLH f &RPSDUHG WR PDOHV IHPDOHV KDG VLJQLILFDQWO\ VPDOOHU EUDLQV EXW VLPLODU VL]HG ODQJXDJHDVVRFLDWHG EUDLQ UHJLRQV 7KH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH WRWDO EUDLQ RFFXSLHG E\ WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW KRPRORJXH RI %URFDfV DUHD ZDV b ODUJHU LQ IHPDOHV WKDQ PDOHV 7KH OHIW DQG ULJKW VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UL RFFXSLHG b PRUH RI WKH WRWDO EUDLQ LQ IHPDOHV WKDQ LQ PDOHV 7KH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH WKH SRVWHULRU ODQJXDJHDVVRFLDWHG VXEVHFWLRQ RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV ZDV b ODUJHU LQ IHPDOHV $ JHQGHUDVVRFLDWHG GLIIHUHQFH LQ YROXPH IUDFWLRQ ZDV QRW REVHUYHG LQ HLWKHU +HVFKOfV J\UXV ZKLFK LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KHDULQJ RU WKH DQWHULRU VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV 7KH DXWKRUV +DUDVW\ 'RXEOH +DOOLGD\ .ULO t 0F5LWFKLH f FRQFOXGHG WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DFFRXQWV IRU PRVW RI WKH LQFUHDVHG YROXPH IUDFWLRQ RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV LQ WKH IHPDOH EUDLQ &RPSDUHG WR PDOHV RI VLPLODU DJH WKH OHIW SODQXP WHPSRUDOH LQ IHPDOHV EHWZHHQ DJHV DQG LV ODUJHU WKDQ WKH ULJKW 3UHLV -DQFNH 6FKPLW] +LOOHEUHFKW t 6WHLQPHW] f

PAGE 32

*HQGHU LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVHG WRWDO EUDLQ YROXPH LQ PDOHV DQG ZLWK ODUJHU SODQXP WHPSRUDOH YROXPHV LQ IHPDOHV 'XH WR WKH OLWHUDWXUH VXJJHVWLQJ JHQGHU LQIOXHQFHV WRWDO EUDLQ YROXPH DQG WKH VL]H RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH JHQGHU ZDV FRQWUROOHG LQ WKH DQDO\VHV 7KH 7HPSRUDO /REH 7KH WHPSRUDO OREHV WKH PRVW ODWHUDO DQG YHQWUDO DVSHFWV RI WKH FHUHEUDO FRUWH[ OLH EHWZHHQ WKH ODWHUDO VXOFXV DQG WKH FROODWHUDO VXOFXV +DLQHV t 0LKDLORII f )LJXUH 7KH IRXU KHPLVSKHUHV RI WKH FHUHEUDO FRUWH[ 7KH J\UL WKDW IRUP WKH WHPSRUDO OREH EHJLQ DW WKH V\OYLDQ ILVVXUH DQG FRQVLVW RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV PHGLDO WHPSRUDO J\UXV DQG WKH LQIHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV 7KH RFFLSLWRWHPSRUDO J\UL D EURDG DUHD RI FRUWH[ WKDW H[WHQGV IURP WKH WHPSRUDO SROH WR WKH RFFLSLWDO SROH LV RQ WKH YHQWUDO VLGH 7KH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO VXOFXV WHUPLQDWHV LQ WKH FRUWH[ DQG IRUPV WKH DQJXODU J\UXV RI WKH LQIHULRU SDULHWDO OREH

PAGE 33

)LJXUH 0DMRU DQDWRPLFDO ODQGPDUNV LQ WKH KXPDQ EUDLQ 7KH WUDQVYHUVH WHPSRUDO J\UL RI +HVFKO RU +HVFKOfV J\UXV LV IRXQG RQ WKH XSSHU HGJH RI WKH WHPSRUDO OREH DQG H[WHQGV LQWR WKH ODWHUDO ILVVXUH LH WKH V\OYLDQ ILVVXUHf 7KH SULPDU\ DXGLWRU\ FRUWH[ LV ORFDWHG LQ +HVFKOfV J\UXV +HVFKOfV J\UXV LV GHHS ZLWKLQ WKH ODWHUDO V\OYLDQ ILVVXUH FRYHUHG E\ SDUWV RI WKH IURQWDO DQG SDULHWDO RSHUFXOD DQG FRQWLQXHV LQWR WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV 7KH VPRRWK DUHD FDXGDO WR +HVFKOfV J\UXV LV WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH WKDW XVXDOO\ LV ODUJHU LQ WKH OHIW WKDQ WKH ULJKW KHPLVSKHUH 7KH JHVWDWLRQDO GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH WHPSRUDO OREH ZDV VWXGLHG LQ IHWDO EUDLQV 'RROLQJ &KL t *LOHV f 7KH VDPSOH LQFOXGHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ HTXDO QXPEHUV RI PDOH DQG IHPDOH EUDLQV DQG H[FOXGHG EUDLQV ZLWK REYLRXV PDOIRUPDWLRQV ODUJH

PAGE 34

5,*+7 +(0,63+(5( 3ODQXP 7HPSRUDOH /()7 +(0,63+(5( )LJXUH $[LDO YLHZ RI KHVFKOfV J\UXV DQG WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH )LJXUH &XWDZD\ YLHZ ZLWK SDULHWDO RSHUFXOD RSHQHG WR UHYHDO +HVFKOfV J\UXV DQG WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH KHPRUUKDJLF RU QHFURWLF DUHDV RU DUFKLWHFWXUDO GLVWRUWLRQ 7KH JHVWDWLRQDO DJH RI D VWUXFWXUHfV DSSHDUDQFH ZDV GHWHUPLQHG ZKHQ WR b RI WKH EUDLQV LQ D SDUWLFXODU DJH JURXS FRQWDLQHG WKH VWUXFWXUH

PAGE 35

)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLF RI +HVFKOn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fV J\UXV DOVR RFFXUV GXULQJ WKLV SHULRG 'RROLQJ &KL t *LOHV f +HVFKOnV J\UXV LV WKH J\UXV PHGLDO WR D GLVWLQFW IXUURZ LQ WKH PHGLDO VXUIDFH RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV RI WKH V\OYLDQ ILVVXUH 7KH IXUURZ H[WHQGV SRVWHULRUO\ DQG PHGLDOO\ XQWLO LWV WHUPLQDO MXQFWLRQ ZLWK WKH SRVWHULRU HQG RI WKH LQVXOD 7KLV J\UXV DSSHDUV DW DERXW ZHHNV DQG LV DV\PPHWULF 7KH +HVFKOnV J\UXV W\SLFDOO\ LV UHFRJQL]HG RQH WR WZR ZHHNV HDUOLHU RQ WKH ULJKW VLGH +RZHYHU WKH J\UXV DSSHDUV DW DERXW WKH VDPH WLPH LQ ERWK KHPLVSKHUHV LQ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ RQHWKLUG RI WKH IHWXVHV 7KH J\UXV H[WHQGV PRUH URVWUDOO\ LQ WKH ULJKW DQG PRUH FDXGDOO\ LQ WKH OHIW 'LIIHUHQFHV DOVR DSSHDU LQ DQJXODWLRQ RI WKH J\UL 7KH OHIW +HVFKOfV J\UXV LV VKRUWHU LQ KHLJKW DQG UXQV D PRUH REWXVH DQJOH WR WKH DQWHULRUSRVWHULRU D[LV RI WKH EUDLQ %HFDXVH

PAGE 36

WKH V\OYLDQ ILVVXUH LV ORQJHU LQ LWV DQWHULRUSRVWHULRU H[WHQW LQ WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH HJ WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO VXUIDFH DUHD SRVWHULRU WR +HVFKOfV J\UXVf DOVR LV PRUH H[WHQVLYH LQ WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH 7KH GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH OHQJWK RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH EHFRPHV PRUH VWULNLQJ DV WKH IHWXV PDWXUHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ DIWHU ZHHNV JHVWDWLRQ VHFRQGDU\ WUDQVYHUVH WHPSRUDO J\UL DSSHDU ,Q b RI WKH EUDLQV H[DPLQHG WZR +HVFKOfV J\UL DSSHDU LQ WKH ULJKW DQG RQH LQ WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH 7KH ILQGLQJV ZHUH UHYHUVHG LQ b LH WKHUH ZHUH WZR +HVFKOfV J\UL RQ WKH OHIW DQG RQH RQ WKH ULJKWf 7KH UHPDLQLQJ b KDG DQ HTXDO QXPEHU RI J\UL RQ ERWK VLGHV 1R JHQGHU GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH QXPEHU RI +HVFKOfV J\UL RU WKH DUHD RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZHUH REVHUYHG 6WUXFWXUHV 5HODWHG WR 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV )XQFWLRQDO PDJQHWLF UHVRQDQFH LPDJLQJ I05,f KDV EHHQ XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH DUHDV RI FRUWLFDO DFWLYDWLRQ XVHG WR DFWLYHO\ DQG SDVVLYHO\ OLVWHQ WR ZRUGV DQG WRQH VHTXHQFHV $ JRDO RI WKLV UHVHDUFK ZDV WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKHVH DFWLYDWLRQ UHVSRQVHV UHSUHVHQW SURFHVVLQJ DW DXGLWRU\ RU OLQJXLVWLF OHYHOV %LQGHU )URVW +DPPHNH 5DR t &R[ f 3DVVLYH VWLPXODWLRQ ZLWK ZRUGV RU WRQHV UHVXOWHG LQ ZLGHVSUHDG DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV LQFOXGLQJ WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH 7KXV WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV LV HQJDJHG DFWLYHO\ LQ DXGLWRU\ SURFHVVLQJ RI ZRUGV DQG WRQHV )RXU DUHDV ZHUH DFWLYDWHG PRUH E\ WKH ZRUG WKDQ WRQH WDVNV GXULQJ DFWLYH OLVWHQLQJ WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV WKH VXOFXV WKDW KDV D UROH LQ PXOWLPRGDO LQWHJUDWLRQ RI VHQVRU\ LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG PLGGOH WHPSRUDO J\UXVf SRVWHULRU LQIHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV DQJXODU J\UXV DQG ODWHUDO IURQWDO OREH 1R FKDQJH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ZRUGV ZDV ORFDWHG LQ WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH RU SODQXP SDULHWDO LQ HLWKHU WKH DFWLYH RU SDVVLYH FRQGLWLRQV 2QH SRVVLEOH H[SODQDWLRQ IRU

PAGE 37

WKLV ODFN RI DFWLYDWLRQ PD\ EH WKDW WKH ZRUGV SUHVHQWHG ZHUH QRW QRYHO DQG UHTXLUHG OHVV EORRG IORZ WR SURFHVV WKDQ ZRXOG QRYHO ZRUGV 7KH QHWZRUNV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DXGLWRU\ SURFHVVLQJ RI ODQJXDJH ZHUH VWXGLHG XVLQJ IRXU VWLPXOXV W\SHV DQG I05, )ULHGHULFL 0H\HU t YRQ &UDPRQ f 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK QRUPDO VSHHFK LH IXQFWLRQ DQG FRQWHQW ZRUGVf V\QWDFWLF VSHHFK LH IXQFWLRQ ZRUGV DQG SVHXGRZRUGVf DQG WZR ZRUGOLVW FRQGLWLRQV LH IXQFWLRQ ZRUGV DQG SVHXGR ZRUGVf 7KH SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI DOO IRXU VWLPXOL W\SHV VWLPXODWHG +HVFKOfV J\UXV ELODWHUDOO\ WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQG ODWHUDO VHJPHQWV RI WKH PLGSRUWLRQ RI WKH WHPSRUDO J\UXV $ PDLQ HIIHFW IRU KHPLVSKHUH ZDV IRXQG LQ WKH SRVWHULRU SRUWLRQ RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV LH WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQG +HVFKOfV J\UXVf LQGLFDWLQJ WKH GRPLQDQFH RI WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH LQ DXGLWRU\ ODQJXDJH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ )XUWKHUPRUH WKH VHQWHQFH WDVNV HOLFLWHG PRUH DFWLYDWLRQ WKDQ WKH ZRUG OLVW FRQGLWLRQ LQ WKH SRVWHULRU SRLWLRQ RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV 7KH DQWHULRU SRUWLRQ RI WKH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV LH SODQXP SRODUHf ZDV DFWLYDWHG ELODWHUDOO\ LQ ERWK VHQWHQFH FRQGLWLRQV 7KH IURQWDO RSHUFXOXP ZDV DFWLYDWHG ELODWHUDOO\ LQ WKH V\QWDFWLF VSHHFK FRQGLWLRQ 0LQLPDO DFWLYDWLRQ ZDV H[KLELWHG GXULQJ WKH QRUPDO VSHHFK FRQGLWLRQ 7KH UHVHDUFKHUV FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH IURQWDO DUHDV DUH LQYROYHG DFWLYHO\ RQO\ ZKHQ WKH EUDLQ LV SUHVHQWHG ZLWK V\QWDFWLF LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ XQXVXDO FLUFXPVWDQFHV ZKLFK LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH ILQGLQJV RI WKH %LQGHU HW DO f VWXG\ 'LIIXVLRQ WHQVRU PDJQHWLF UHVRQDQFH LPDJLQJ ZDV XVHG WR VWXG\ WKH PLFURVWUXFWXUDO LQWHJULW\ RI ZKLWH PDWWHU LQ DGXOWV ZLWK SRRU DQG QRUPDO UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ .OLQJEHUJ +HGHKXV 7HPSOH 6DO] *DEULHOL 0RVHOH\ t 3ROGUDFN f 'LIIXVLRQ WHQVRU LPDJLQJ '7,f DOORZV PHDVXUHPHQW RI DQLVRWURS\ ,QFUHDVHG P\HOLQDWLRQ LV

PAGE 38

DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK JUHDWHU DQLVRWURS\ 3RRU UHDGHUV VKRZHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORZHU DQLVRWURS\ LQ WKH ZKLWH PDWWHU RI WKH WHPSRURSDULHWDO UHJLRQ $ VLJQLILFDQW FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ :RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ DQG :RUG $WWDFN VFRUHV DQG D PHDQ DQLVRWURS\ ZLWKLQ WKH OHIW WHPSRURn SDULHWDO YROXPHV RI LQWHUHVW 92,f ZDV IRXQG 7KH UHVHDUFKHUV FRQFOXGHG WKDW ZKLWH PDWWHU XQGHUO\LQJ WKH OHIW WHPSRURSDULHWDO FRUWH[ SOD\V D FULWLFDO UROH LQ UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ %UDLQ VWUXFWXUHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DXGLWRU\ SURFHVVLQJ DUH GLVFXVVHG E\ /HRQDUG 9RHOOHU /RPEDUGLQR 0RUULV +\QG $OH[DQGHU $QGHUVRQ *DURIDODNLV +RQH\PDQ 0DR $JHH DQG 6WDDE f 7KH FRUWLFDO VWUXFWXUHV GHYRWHG WR DXGLWRU\ SURFHVVLQJ DUH IRXQG LQ WKH WHPSRUDO EDQN RI WKH V\OYLDQ ILVVXUH +HVFKOfV J\UXV UHFHLYHV WKH DVFHQGLQJ DXGLWRU\ SURMHFWLRQV IURP WKH PHGLDO JHQLFXODWH DQG UHOD\V WKHP WR WKH VHFRQGDU\ DXGLWRU\ FRUWH[ RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQG VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV 7KLV LV D VLWH ZKHUH DXGLWRU\ SKRQHPHV FRXOG EH PDSSHG LQWR YLVXDO JUDSKHPHV UHOD\HG IURP SDULHWRn RFFLSLWDO FRUWH[ S f /DQJXDJH G\VIXQFWLRQ RFFXUV DOPRVW H[FOXVLYHO\ ZKHQ OHVLRQV DUH RQ WKH OHIW VLGH 7KLV SX]]OHG VFLHQWLVWV IRU PDQ\ \HDUV DV WKHUH DUH QR REYLRXV DQDWRPLFDO GLIIHUHQFHV DQG YHU\ IHZ SK\VLFDO DV\PPHWULHV EHWZHHQ WKH WZR KHPLVSKHUHV $QQHWW f +RZHYHU WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQ DUHD DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DXGLWRU\ SURFHVVLQJ ZDV IRXQG WR EH DV\PPHWULFDO EHWZHHQ KHPLVSKHUHV 7KH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH LV ORFDWHG LQ WKH VXSHULRU LQQHU PDUJLQ RI WKH WHPSRUDO OREH $QQHWW f 7KH DUHD RI WKH OHIW SODQXP WHPSRUDOH WKDW LQFRUSRUDWHV WKH DXGLWRU\ DVVRFLDWLRQ FRUWH[ DQG LV FHQWUDO WR ODQJXDJH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ W\SLFDOO\ LV ODUJHU WKDQ LQ WKH ULJKW SODQXP WHPSRUDOH %HVW f 7KH OHIW SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV IRXQG WR EH ORQJHU LQ RXW RI SRVWPRUWHP EUDLQV *HVFKZLQG t

PAGE 39

/HYLWVN\ f 7KH SODQXP JHQHUDOO\ ZDV RQHWKLUG ODUJHU RQ WKH OHIW WKDQ RQ WKH ULJKW VLGH +RZHYHU WKH SODQXP ZDV ORQJHU RQ WKH ULJKW VLGH LQ RI WKH EUDLQV DQG ERWK KHPLVSKHUHV ZHUH WKH VDPH OHQJWK LQ EUDLQV /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV IRXQG LQ LQGLYLGXDOV ZKRVH ODQJXDJH IXQFWLRQV DUH ODWHUDOL]HG WR WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH )RXQGDV /HRQDUG *LOPRUH )HQQHOO t +HLOPDQ f 7ZHOYH SDUWLFLSDQWV XQGHUZHQW VHOHFWLYH ULJKW DQG OHIW KHPLVSKHULF DQHVWKHVLD :DGD WHVWLQJf DQG D PDJQHWLF UHVRQDQFH LPDJLQJ 05,f VFDQ 7KH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV ORQJHU RQ WKH OHIW LQ DOO ULJKWKDQGHG SHUVRQV ,Q DGGLWLRQ ODQJXDJH DELOLW\ RI WKH ULJKWKDQGHG SHUVRQV ZDV EDVHG LQ WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH DV GHPRQVWUDWHG E\ WKH :DGD SURFHGXUH 7KH RQH OHIWKDQGHU KDG D ULJKWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQG KDG ODQJXDJH ODWHUDOL]HG WR WKH ULJKW KHPLVSKHUH DV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH :DGD SURFHGXUH 7KH DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SHULV\OYLDQ DUHDV ZDV PHDVXUHG LQ D JURXS RI PDOH FKLOGUHQ ZLWK ODQJXDJH LPSDLUPHQWV 3ODQWH 6ZLVKHU 9DQFH t 5DSFVDN f 7KH SHULV\OYLDQ DUHD DV PHDVXUHG LQ WKH VWXG\ FRQWDLQV SRUWLRQV RI WKH IURQWDO DQG SDULHWDO RSHUFXODH VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UXV DQG WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH 6L[ RXW RI HLJKW bf RI WKH ODQJXDJH LPSDLUHG ER\V KDG V\PPHWU\ RU ULJKWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SHULV\OYLDQ DUHD 7KLV OHIW WR ULJKW UDWLR ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP QRQODQJXDJH LPSDLUHG FRQWUROV 7KH DXWKRUV FRQFOXGHG WKDW DW\SLFDO SHULV\OYLDQ FRQILJXUDWLRQ PD\ EH D QHXURDQDWRPLFDO PDUNHU FRPPRQ WR D UDQJH RI GLVRUGHUV WKDW LQFOXGH LQDGHTXDWH ODQJXDJH VNLOOV $V\PPHWU\ LQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH FRQWULEXWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ WR WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV /HRQDUG /RPEDUGLQR 0HUFDGR %URZG %UHLHU t $JHH f )RUW\ QRUPDO FKLOGUHQ EHWZHHQ WKH DJHV RI DQG ZHUH UHFUXLWHG IURP WKH

PAGE 40

FRPPXQLW\ WR SDUWLFLSDWH 7KH FKLOGUHQ ZHUH JLYHQ DQ 05, DQG WKHLU EUDLQ VWUXFWXUHV ZHUH PHDVXUHG XVLQJ D VSHFLDOL]HG FRPSXWHU SURJUDP /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP ZDV HOHYDWHG LQ FKLOGUHQ XQGHU DJH ZKR KDG ZHOOGHYHORSHG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV +RUL]RQWDO DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SODQXP SUHGLFWHG WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV LQGHSHQGHQW RI DJH DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW /$&f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t 6WHLQPHW] f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t 'DPDVLR f 3HUVRQV ZLWK SRVWHULRU SHUV\OYLDQ GDPDJH PD\ EH XQDEOH WR H[SUHVV FHUWDLQ ZRUGV RU IRUP WKHP SURSHUO\ HJ WKH\ PD\ VD\ OROLSKDQW IRU HOHSKDQWf 7KH\ DOVR PD\ VXEVWLWXWH D

PAGE 41

SURQRXQ RU JHQHUDO ZRUG IRU D PRUH VSHFLILF DQG GHVFULSWLYH RQH HJ SHRSOH IRU ZRPDQf RU XVH D ZRUG VHPDQWLFDOO\ UHODWHG WR WKH LGHD WKH\ LQWHQG WR H[SUHVV HJ KHDGPDQ IRU SUHVLGHQWf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t +XJKHV f 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV REVHUYHG LQ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ EHIRUH WKH\ UHFHLYH DQ\ IRUPDO UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ ZKLOH PRUH DGYDQFHG OHYHOV RI SKRQRORJLFDO DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DUH REVHUYHG LQ FKLOGUHQ ZLWK HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV WKDQ WKRVH ZLWK ORZHU VNLOO OHYHOV %RZH\ f %DVHG RQ SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK /HRQDUG HW DO f OHIWZDUG SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ LV H[SHFWHG WR EH PRUH KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG LQ FKLOGUHQ ZKR GLVSOD\ PRUH DGYDQFHG OHYHOV RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ WKDQ FKLOGUHQ ZKR GLVSOD\ ORZHU GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKHVH WZR VNLOOV 7KLV VWXG\ SURSRVHV WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKHVH UHODWLRQVKLSV LQ \RXQJ UHDGHUV
PAGE 42

WHFKQLTXHV PLJKW EH GHYHORSHG DQG XVHG EDVHG RQ WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH QHXURELRORJLFDO LQGLFDWRU %DVHG RQ WKH DIRUHPHQWLRQHG HYLGHQFH FKLOGUHQ EHWZHHQ WKH DJHV RI DQG ZKR UHFHLYH OLWWOH RU QR WUDLQLQJ LQ UHDGLQJ PD\ EH H[SHFWHG WR GLVSOD\ D EDVLF OHYHO RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV $ VFKRROLQJ HIIHFW KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG %HQWLQ HW DO f ZKHUHLQ FKLOGUHQfV SKRQHPLF DELOLW\ LQFUHDVHG DERYH WKHLU HVWLPDWHG GHYHORSPHQWDO OHYHOV ZLWKLQ D EULHI SHULRG RI WLPH DIWHU EHJLQQLQJ UHDGLQJ WUDLQLQJ (YLGHQFH WKDW SUHOLWHUDWH SUHVFKRROHUV SRVVHVV VRPH VLPSOH DQG FRPSOH[ SKRQRORJLFDO DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV /XQGEHUJ f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

PAGE 43

7KH JRDO RI WKLV UHVHDUFK LV WR \LHOG IXUWKHU LQVLJKW LQWR WKH ELRORJLFDO LQIOXHQFHV RQ OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQV IRU ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ 7KH DUHD RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH W\SLFDOO\ LV ODUJHU LQ WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH WKDQ LQ WKH ULJKW KHPLVSKHUH %HVW *HVFKZLQG t /HYLWVN\ f ,Q FRQWUDVW FKLOGUHQ ZLWK ODQJXDJH LPSDLUPHQWV GHPRQVWUDWH V\PPHWU\ RU ULJKWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SHULV\OYLDQ DUHD RQH WKDW LQFOXGHV WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH 3ODQWH HW DO f /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH FRQWULEXWHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ WR WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV /HRQDUG HW DO f 7KXV WKH IROORZLQJ UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ ZLOO EH LQYHVWLJDWHG ,V WKH OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV LQ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ" (YLGHQFH UHOHYDQW WR 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ +\SRWKHVLV WHVWLQJ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ ZRXOG EH VXSSRUWHG OHIWZDUG KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ LV DVVRFLDWHG SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV 5HVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ ZRXOG QRW EH VXSSRUWHG LI WKHUH LV QR UHODWLRQVKLS IRXQG EHWZHHQ WKH WKUHH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV K\SRWKHVHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH RU WKH UHODWLRQVKLS LV QHJDWLYH 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ $V SUHYLRXVO\ PHQWLRQHG WKH DUHD RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH W\SLFDOO\ LV ODUJHU LQ WKH OHIW WKDQ WKH ULJKW KHPLVSKHUH %HVW *HVFKZLQG t /HYLWVN\ f ,Q FRQWUDVW FKLOGUHQ ZLWK ODQJXDJH LPSDLUPHQWV GHPRQVWUDWH V\PPHWU\ RU ULJKWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SHULV\OYLDQ DUHD WKDW LQFOXGHV WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH 3ODQWH HW DO f /HIWZDUG

PAGE 44

DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH FRQWULEXWHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ WR WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV /HRQDUG HW DO f 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV SUHGLFWLYH RI ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ /XQGEHUJ HW DO 0DF'RQDOG t &RUQZDOO 6DORQHQ HW DO 6QLGHU 7RUJHVHQ HW DO f 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV ELGLUHFWLRQDO %DUURQ %HQWLQ HW DO )RRUPDQ 3HUIHWWL HW DO :DJQHU HW DO f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t /HYLWVN\ f ,Q FRQWUDVW FKLOGUHQ ZLWK ODQJXDJH LPSDLUPHQWV GHPRQVWUDWH V\PPHWU\ RU ULJKWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SHULV\OYLDQ DUHD ZKLFK LQFOXGHV WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH 3ODQWH HW DO f 3KRQRORJLFDO UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVV LH WKH SURFHVV RI WUDQVODWLQJ D ZULWWHQ ZRUG LQWR

PAGE 45

LWV DXGLWRU\ UHIHUHQW E\ UHFRGLQJ WKH ZULWWHQ V\PEROV LQWR D VRXQGEDVHG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO V\VWHPf LV RQH RI WKH WKUHH SUHYLRXVO\ PHQWLRQHG W\SHV RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ LH SKRQRORJLFDO UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVV SKRQHWLF UHFRGLQJ WR PDLQWDLQ LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ ZRUNLQJ PHPRU\ DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVVf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f /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV /HRQDUG HW DO f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

PAGE 46

QDPLQJ K\SRWKHVHV PHDVXULQJ SKRQRORJLFDO UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVV LV QRW VLJQLILFDQW RU LV QHJDWLYH

PAGE 47

&+$37(5 0(7+2' 3DUWLFLSDQWV 7KH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH QRUPDO WR \HDUROG FKLOGUHQ WR \HDUVf ZKR KDG QRW \HW HQWHUHG WKH ILUVW JUDGH 7KLV DJH UDQJH ZDV FKRVHQ EHFDXVH RI WKH IROORZLQJ ILYH FRQGLWLRQV )LYH \HDUROGV DUH DEOH WR OLH VWLOO ZLWKRXW DQHVWKHVLD 7KLV DJH LV WKH ILUVW VWDJH IRU WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI PHWDOLQJXLVWLF VNLOOV $GDPV f 'HYHORSPHQWDO FKDQJHV LQ WKH EUDLQ DUH OLNHO\ EHWZHHQ DJHV ILYH DQG VHYHQ /HRQDUG /RPEDUGLQR 0HUFDGR %URZG %UHLHU $JHH f 3ULRU VWXGLHV WKDW IRFXV RQ YHU\ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG LWV UHODWLRQVKLS WR EUDLQ GHYHORSPHQW FRXOG QRW EH ORFDWHG 'UDPDWLF LPSURYHPHQW LQ VRPH ODQJXDJH VNLOOV RFFXUV ZLWKLQ WKLV DJH UDQJH $GDPV f 7KH FKLOGUHQ ZHUH EDODQFHG E\ JHQGHU 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH UHFUXLWHG IURP WKH FRPPXQLW\ LQ $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD YLD WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD /DERUDWRU\ 6FKRRO 3.
PAGE 48

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f ZDV XVHG WR PHDVXUH KDQG SUHIHUHQFH DQG WKH SHJPRYLQJ WHVW ZDV EH XVHG WR PHDVXUH KDQG VNLOO 7KH KDQGHGQHVV TXHVWLRQQDLUH ZDV WXUQHG LQWR D SHUIRUPDQFH LQYHQWRU\ EHFDXVH DVNLQJ FKLOGUHQ DERXW WKHLU KDQG SUHIHUHQFH PD\ QRW DFFXUDWHO\ UHIOHFW WKHLU EHKDYLRU 3HUIRUPDQFH ZLWK DQ DFWXDO REMHFW ZDV DVVHVVHG )RU HDFK LWHP WKH VXEMHFW ZDV REVHUYHG DOZD\V ULJKW RU OHIWf XVXDOO\ ULJKW RU OHIWf RU HLWKHU 5HVSRQVHV RI HLWKHU UHFHLYHG ]HUR SRLQWV DOZD\V ULJKW WZR SRLQWV DQG XVXDOO\ ULJKW RQH SRLQW 5HVSRQVHV RI DOZD\V OHIW UHFHLYHG QHJDWLYH WZR SRLQWV DQG XVXDOO\ OHIW UHFHLYHG QHJDWLYH RQH SRLQW 7KH VXP ZDV GLYLGHG E\ WKH QXPEHU RI TXHVWLRQV REVHUYHG VRPH FKLOGUHQ GLG QRW NQRZ KRZ WR SHUIRUP VRPH RI WKH LWHPV OLNH OLJKW D PDWFKf WLPHV WZR EHFDXVH WZR LV WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI SRVVLEOH SRLQWV SHU LWHP ,I WKH TXRWLHQW ZDV DERYH WKH\ DUH FRQVLGHUHG VWURQJO\ ULJKW KDQGHG DQG LI LW ZDV EHORZ WKH\ ZHUH

PAGE 49

VWURQJO\ OHIW KDQGHG 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH FODVVHG DV ULJKWKDQGHG LI WKH\ ZURWH ZLWK WKHLU ULJKW KDQG DQG KDG D TXRWLHQW RI RU JUHDWHU $OO RWKHUV ZHUH FODVVHG DV QRQULJKW VHH 7DEOHV DQG f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV 6RFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV ZDV FDOFXODWHG XVLQJ WKH +ROOLQJVKHDG IRXU IDFWRU LQGH[ RI VRFLDO VWDWXV +ROOLQJVKHDG f ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ SDUHQW HGXFDWLRQ DQG RFFXSDWLRQ ZDV REWDLQHG DQG UDWHG RQ D VFDOH RI RQH WR VHYHQ DQG RQH WR QLQH UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,I WKH FKLOG FDPH IURP D VLQJOHSDUHQW KRXVHKROG RU D VLQJOHHDUQHU KRXVHKROG WKH VFRUH ZDV FDOFXODWHG XVLQJ WKH ZRUNLQJ SDUHQWfV RFFXSDWLRQ +RZHYHU LI ERWK SDUHQWV ZRUNHG WKH VFRUHV ZHUH DGGHG WRJHWKHU DQG WKHQ DYHUDJHG 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV 7ZR PHDVXUHV RI SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ ZHUH FKRVHQ WR LQFUHDVH FRQVWUXFW YDOLGLW\ RI UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ &RRN t &DPSEHOO f 7KH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ WHVW /$&f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f DQ LQGLYLGXDOO\ DGPLQLVWHUHG WHVW ZDV GHVLJQHG WR HYDOXDWH FKLOGUHQnV DELOLW\ WR GLVFULPLQDWH VSHHFK VRXQGV DV ZHOO DV WR SHUFHLYH WKH QXPEHU DQG RUGHU RI VRXQGV ZLWKLQ D VSRNHQ SDWWHUQ

PAGE 50

7KH /$& PHDVXUHV SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG SKRQHWLF UHFRGLQJ LQ ZRUNLQJ PHPRU\ 7KH WHVW LV GHVLJQHG IRU XVH ZLWK FKLOGUHQ LQ .LQGHUJDUWHQ WKURXJK WK JUDGH WR DLG LQ WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI DXGLWRU\ SHUFHSWXDO GHILFLHQFLHV 7KH VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQ VDPSOH ZDV .LQGHUJDUWHQ WKURXJK WKJUDGH ER\V DQG JLUOV IURP D ODUJH KHWHURJHQHRXV &DOLIRUQLD VFKRRO GLVWULFW $OWHUQDWHIRUP UHOLDELOLW\ LV KLJK U f 1R LQIRUPDWLRQ LV DYDLODEOH DERXW ZLWKLQJUDGH UHOLDELOLWLHV &RUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH FRPELQHG UHDGLQJ DQG VSHOOLQJ VXEWHVWV RI WKH :LGH 5DQJH $FKLHYHPHQW 7HVW DQG WKH /$& UDQJH IURP WR ZLWK D PHGLDQ RI 6DWWOHU f $IWHU WK JUDGH SDUWLFLSDQWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR VFRUH EHWZHHQ DQG 7KH (OLVLRQ WDVN IURP 7RUJHVHQnV XQSXEOLVKHG EDWWHU\ RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV WDVNV ZDV JLYHQ 7RUJHVHQ f :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ DQG 5DVKRWWH f UHFHQWO\ SXEOLVKHG D EDWWHU\ RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ ZKLFK FRQWDLQV D QHDUO\ LGHQWLFDO YHUVLRQ RI WKH (OLVLRQ WDVN XVHG LQ WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ 7KH WHVWf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f (OLVLRQ WDVN IRU FKLOGUHQ EHWZHHQ ILYH DQG VHYHQ \HDUV RI DJH LV KLJK U f 7KH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV VXEWHVW IURP WKH :RRGFRFN-RKQVRQ 3V\FKRHGXFDWLRQDO %DWWHU\5HYLVHG ZDV JLYHQ :RRGFRFN t -RKQVRQ f 7KLV VXEWHVW PHDVXUHV

PAGE 51

DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH RU WKH DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ D ZRUG ZKHQ SURYLGHG RQO\ VRPH RI WKH VRXQGV ZLWKLQ LW 7KLV WHVW LV SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D WDSH SOD\HU DQG SURJUHVVHV LQ GLIILFXOW\ IURP ZRUGV PLVVLQJ VLQJOH SKRQHPHV WR ZRUGV PLVVLQJ PXOWLSOH SKRQHPHV 5DSLG QDPLQJ 7KH 5DSLG $XWRPDWLF 1DPLQJ 7DVN 5$17f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
PAGE 52

VKH FRXOG 3ULRU WR WKH WLPHG WULDO WKH FKLOG LV WHVWHG WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU KH RU VKH NQHZ WKH FRORUV OHWWHUV DQG QXPEHUV EHLQJ SUHVHQWHG ,I WKH FKLOG GLG QRW NQRZ WKH FRORUV OHWWHUV RU GLJLWV SUHVHQWHG RQ WKH FDUG WKH WULDO IRU WKH XQNQRZQ LWHPV ZDV RPLWWHG 7KH DPRXQW RI WLPH UHTXLUHG IRU HDFK W\SH RI VWLPXOXV ZDV UHFRUGHG 5HOLDELOLW\ LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU WKH SDUWLFXODU LWHPV DGPLQLVWHUHG LV QRW DYDLODEOH +RZHYHU :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ DQG 5DVKRWWHnV f UHFHQWO\ SXEOLVKHG EDWWHU\ RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ ZKLFK FRQWDLQV D QHDUO\ LGHQWLFDO YHUVLRQ RI WKH 5DSLG $XWRPDWLF 1DPLQJ WDVN XVHG LQ WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ 7KH WHVWUHWHVW UHOLDELOLW\ FRHIILFLHQWV IRU WKH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ WDVN IRU &RORU U f 'LJLWV U f DQG /HWWHUV U f DUH KLJK (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ 0HDVXUHV 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV LV ELn GLUHFWLRQDO %DUURQ %HQWLQ HW DO )RRUPDQ 3HUIHWWL HW DOf :DJQHU HW DO f DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV DUH SUHGLFWLYH RI ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ /XQGEHUJ HW DO 0DF'RQDOG t &RUQZDOO 6DORQHQ HW DO 6QLGHU 7RUJHVHQ HW DO f 7KH /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ :RUG $WWDFN 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ DQG (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ ZHUH FKRVHQ WR PHDVXUH YDULRXV DVSHFWV RI UHDGLQJ DFKLHYHPHQW DQG UHGXFH WKH WKUHDW RI FRQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ &RRN t &DPSEHOO f 7KH EDWWHU\ LQFOXGHV D WHVW RI OHWWHU DQG VLJKW ZRUG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ DQ LQYHQWRU\ RI EDVLF UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG D QRQVHQVH ZRUG UHDGLQJ WDVN 7KHVH WDVNV ZHUH VHOHFWHG DV WKH\ UHSUHVHQW DJH DSSURSULDWH PHDVXUHV RI UHDGLQJ VNLOO 7KH (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ (56,f ZDV DGPLQLVWHUHG WR DVVHVV EDVLF UHDGLQJ VNLOOV /RPEDUGLQR 0RUULV 0HUFDGR 'HILOOLSLR 6DULVN\ t 0RQWJRPHU\ f

PAGE 53

7KH (56, FRQVLVWV RI IRXU VXEWHVWV $OSKDEHW .QRZOHGJH &RQFHSW RI :RUG ,QYHQWHG 6SHOOLQJ DQG :RUG 5HFRJQLWLRQ 7KH $OSKDEHW .QRZOHGJH VXEWHVW PHDVXUHV D FKLOGfV VNLOOV LQ QDPLQJ YLVXDOO\ SUHVHQWHG XSSHU DQG ORZHU FDVH OHWWHUV DQG WKH DELOLW\ WR ZULWH WKH OHWWHUV ZKHQ WKH\ DUH SUHVHQWHG RUDOO\ 7KH &RQFHSW RI :RUG VXEWHVW UHTXLUHV WKH FKLOG WR LGHQWLI\ D ZRUG LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI D VWRU\ ,QYHQWHG 6SHOOLQJ UHTXLUHV WKH FKLOG WR VSHOO ZRUGV ZKLFK FRQVLVW RI WKUHH RU IRXU SKRQHPHV 7KH :RUG 5HFRJQLWLRQ VXEWHVW DVVHVVHV D FKLOGfV DELOLW\ WR UHDG FRQVRQDQWYRZHOFRQVRQDQW ZRUGV 7KH IRXU VXEWHVWV DUH FRPELQHG WR SURYLGH DQ LQGH[ RI UHDGLQJ VNLOO 7KH PD[LPXP VFRUH LV 7KH :RUG $WWDFN /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ DQG 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ VXEWHVWV IURP WKH :RRGFRFN-RKQVRQ 3V\FKRHGXFDWLRQDO %DWWHU\5HYLVHG :-5f ZHUH XVHG WR WHVW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG SHUIRUPDQFH :RRGFRFN t -RKQVRQ f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

PAGE 54

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f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f 7KH FRUUHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH %URDG &RJQLWLYH &OXVWHU DQG RWKHU PHDVXUHV RI FRJQLWLYH DELOLW\ HJ .DXIPDQ

PAGE 55

$VVHVVPHQW %DWWHU\ IRU &KLOGUHQ 6WDQIRUG%LQHW ,9 DQG WKH :HFKVOHU ,QWHOOLJHQFH 6FDOH IRU &KLOGUHQ ,,,f W\SLFDOO\ DUH LQ WKH WR WKH UDQJH 05, 6FDQ 7ZR VFDQ VHTXHQFHV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ D 6LHPHQV 7HVOD 0DJQHWRP XVLQJ D TXDGUDWXUH KHDG FRLO f D JUDGLHQW HFKR YROXPHWULF DFTXLVLWLRQ f7XUERIODVKf 03 5DJH VHTXHQFH WKDW LV WUDQVIHUUHG LQWR D YROXPHWULF JDSOHVV VHULHV RI PP WKLFN LPDJHV LQ WKH VDJLWWDO SODQH DQG f D WUDGLWLRQDO D[LDO VFDQ RI PP 7 VSLQ DQG GHQVLW\ ZHLJKWHG LPDJHV VHSDUDWHG E\ PP JDSV 1R JDSV H[LVW LQ WKH YROXPHWULF GDWD IURP WKH JUDGLHQW HFKR VFDQ 7KXV WKH GDWD FDQ EH UHFRQVWUXFWHG LQWR D VHW RI LPDJHV LQ DQ\ SODQH 7KH LPDJHV ZHUH WUDQVIHUUHG WR D FRPSXWHU ZRUNVWDWLRQ ZKHUH WKH\ ZHUH GLVSOD\HG DQG DQDO\]HG ZLWK SURJUDPV ZULWWHQ LQ 39 :DYH 05, DQG &KLOGUHQ *LHGG f GLVFXVVHV PHWKRGRORJLFDO LVVXHV SHUWLQHQW WR SHGLDWULF PDJQHWLF UHVRQDQFH ,PDJLQJ 05,f RI WKH EUDLQ 05 LPDJLQJ XVHV QR LRQL]LQJ UDGLDWLRQ LW RIIHUV WKH FDSDFLW\ WR DFTXLUH LPDJHV LQ DQ\ SODQH RI YLHZ ZLWK H[FHOOHQW VSDWLDO UHVROXWLRQ DQG LW SURYLGHV D JRRG FRQWUDVW EHWZHHQ JUD\ PDWWHU ZKLWH PDWWHU DQG FHUHEURVSLQDO IOXLG &6)f $V RSSRVHG WR FRQYHQWLRQDO UDGLRJUDSK\ DQG &7 ZKLFK UHO\ VROHO\ LQ UDGLRJUDSK SDWHQF\ 05 LPDJLQJ FDQ DVVHVV D YDULHW\ RI WLVVXH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DQG LW FDQ EH XVHG WR YLVXDOL]H VWUXFWXUHV VXFK DV WHPSRUDO OREHV IURQWDO OREHV DQG SRVWHULRU IRVVD ZKLFK DUH RIWHQ REVFXUHG E\ ERQH LQWHUIHUHQFH RQ &7 VFDQV 7KHVH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV PDNH 05 LPDJLQJ WKH LPDJLQJ PRGDOLW\ RI FKRLFH IRU SHGLDWULF QHXURLPDJLQJ VWXGLHV S f

PAGE 56

%UDLQ 0HDVXUHPHQWV $ VWDQGDUG VHW RI PHDVXUHPHQWV ZDV REWDLQHG IRU HDFK EUDLQ $ PRXVH ZDV XVHG WR WUDFH WKH OHQJWK LQ PLOOLPHWHUV PPf RI WKH VWUXFWXUH RQ HYHU\ YROXPHWULF VHFWLRQ 7KHVH PHDVXUHPHQWV WKHQ ZHUH DYHUDJHG LQ RUGHU WR REWDLQ D PHDQ VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ DQG WKH GHJUHH RI DV\PPHWU\ 7KH WRWDO VXUIDFH DUHD RI WKH VWUXFWXUH ZDV GHWHUPLQHG E\ PXOWLSO\LQJ WKH OHQJWK E\ WKH VHFWLRQ WKLFNQHVV LH UHFDOO WKDW WKH 05, GDWD DUH WUDQVIHUUHG LQWR PP WKLFN LPDJHVf 7KH WRWDO EUDLQ YROXPH RI HDFK FKLOGfV EUDLQ ZDV GHWHUPLQHG DQG ZDV UHSRUWHG LQ FXELF PLOOLPHWHUV 7KH VXUIDFH DUHD RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV WUDFHG RQ FRQVHFXWLYH VDJLWWDO LPDJHV 7KH KRUL]RQWDO DQG YHUWLFDO DVFHQGLQJf EDQNV RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZHUH PHDVXUHG VHSDUDWHO\ 7KH GHJUHH RI DV\PPHWU\ EHWZHHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH PHDVXUHPHQWV RI WKH ULJKW DQG OHIW KHPLVSKHUHV ZDV GHWHUPLQHG DQG UHSRUWHG DV D FRHIILFLHQW 7KH IRUPXOD IRU GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ FRHIILFLHQW LV Uf Uff )LJXUH 6DJLWWDO ,PDJH RI WKH +XPDQ %UDLQ 2XWOLQLQJ WKH +RUL]RQWDO %UDQFK RI WKH 3ODQXP 7HPSRUDOH

PAGE 57

7DEOH $UHDV $VVHVVHG DQG ,QVWUXPHQWV 8VHG $VVHVVPHQW $UHD ,QVWUXPHQWDWLRQ 8QLW RI 0HDVXUH +DQGHGQHVV 0RGLILHG (GLQEXUJK %DWWHU\ 4XRWLHQW 5LJKW +DQGHGf 1RQ5LJKWf 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW /$&f (OLVLRQ 7DVN 7RWDO 6FRUH 0D[LPXP f 7RWDO 6FRUH 0D[LPXP f ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV 6WDQGDUG 6FRUH :RUG $WWDFN 6WDQGDUG 6FRUH (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ 6WDQGDUG 6FRUH 6WDQGDUG 6FRUH (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ (56,f 7RWDO 6FRUH 0D[LPXP f 5DSLG $XWRPDWLF 1DPLQJ 7DVN 5$17f 5DSLG 1DPLQJ &RORUV 7LPH LQ 6HFRQGV /HWWHUV 7LPH LQ 6HFRQGV 'LJLWV 7LPH LQ 6HFRQGV ,QWHOOHFWXDO $ELOLW\ :RRGFRFN-RKQVRQ 3V\FKRHGXFDWLRQDO %DWWHU\f§5HYLVHG 7HVWV RI &RJQLWLYH $ELOLW\ 6WDQGDUG %DWWHU\ 6WDQGDUG 6FRUH

PAGE 58

6WDWLVWLFDO $QDO\VHV 'HVFULSWLYH 6WDWLVWLFV DQG 5HOLDELOLW\ 7KH GHVFULSWLYH VWDWLVWLFV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG IRU DOO GDWD VHWV 5HOLDELOLW\ HVWLPDWHV IRU WKH EUDLQ PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG XVLQJ D SURGXFW PRPHQW FRUUHODWLRQ +\SRWKHVLV 7HVWLQJ 5HFDOO WKDW WKH WKUHH EURDG UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQV DUH DV IROORZV f ,V WKH OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DVVRFLDWHG SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG ZLWK SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV" f ,V WKH OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DVVRFLDWHG SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV LQ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ DQG f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f HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ LH :RUG $WWDFN /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ WKH (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\f DQG UDSLG DXWRPDWLF QDPLQJ LH FRORUV OHWWHUV DQG GLJLWVf 7KH XVH RI PXOWLSOH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV WR UHSUHVHQW D VLQJOH FRQVWUXFW DOORZV RQH WR PHDVXUH

PAGE 59

GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RU OHYHOV RI WKH DIRUHPHQWLRQHG FRQVWUXFWV DQG WKHUHIRUH GHFUHDVH WKH OLNHOLKRRG RI FRQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ D ILUVW VWHS WRZDUG FRQVWUXFW YDOLGLW\ &RRN t &DPSEHOO f $ VHSDUDWH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ WKHQ FRUUHVSRQGV WR HDFK RI WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV UHVXOWLQJ LQ D VHULHV RI UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VHV VHYHUDO EHLQJ LPSOHPHQWHG IRU HDFK UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ LH FRQVWUXFWf WKUHH IRU SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV IRXU IRU HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DQG WKUHH IRU SKRQRORJLFDO UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVV $OO UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VHV WKDW ZHUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH VDPH FRQVWUXFW LH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DQG SKRQRORJLFDO UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVVf ZHUH JURXSHG WRJHWKHU FRQFHSWXDOO\ DQG WUHDWHG DV D fIDPLO\f RI VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV 7R PDLQWDLQ WKH IDPLO\ZLVH 7\SH HUURU DW D D %RQIHUURQL DGMXVWPHQW ZDV DSSOLHG WR HDFK RI WKH WKUHH fIDPLOLHVf RI DQDO\VHV 0XOWLFROOLQHDULW\ RI WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ZDV H[DPLQHG XVLQJ WKH 6366 &RQGLWLRQ ,QGH[ & ,I WKLV &RQGLWLRQ ,QGH[ KDG H[FHHGHG FRUUHFWLYH DFWLRQ ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ WDNHQ WR REWDLQ DQ DFFHSWDEOH OHYHO RI PXOWLFROOLQHDULW\ 0XOWLFROOLQHDULW\ ZDV DFFHSWDEOH f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

PAGE 60

ODUJHU WKH VDPSOH VL]H WKH PRUH OLNHO\ ZH DUH WR UHMHFW D IDOVH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV DW D SDUWLFXODU DOHYHO 7KH XVH RI ODUJH VDPSOH VL]HV GHFUHDVHV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI 7\SH DQG 7\SH ,, HUURUV $Q LQVLJQLILFDQW 3YDOXH DQG IDLOXUH WR UHMHFW WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV PD\ EH GXH WR LQVXIILFLHQW SRZHU IRU WKH VL]H RI WKH VDPSOH XVHG 7KH SRVW KRF HVWLPDWLRQ RI SRZHU IDFLOLWDWHV DQ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI RQHf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n DW S ZLWK WKH GHJUHHV RI IUHHGRP HTXDO WR WKH QXPEHU RI YDULDEOHV $Q\ FDVH ZLWK D 0DKDODQRELV GLVWDQFH JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH VSHFLILHG ZDV FRQVLGHUHG D PXOWLYDULDWH RXWOLHU ZLWK WRR PXFK LQIOXHQFH LQ WKH DQDO\VLV DQG ZDV UHPRYHG

PAGE 61

7DEOH ,QGHSHQGHQW DQG 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOHV ([DPLQHG ,QGHSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH 'HSHQGHQW 9DULDEOH )DPLO\ 1DPH +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ $V\PPHWU\ 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV 5DSLG 1DPLQJ

PAGE 62

&+$37(5 5(68/76 2YHUYLHZ RI $QDO\VHV DQG 5HVXOWV 7KLV UHVHDUFK H[DPLQHG UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ RQH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LH OHIWZDUG KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\f DQG WKUHH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV LH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ UDSLG QDPLQJ VNLOOVf LQ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ 5HODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV DQG WKH WKUHH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ZHUH H[DPLQHG ZLWK LQGLYLGXDO K\SRWKHVHV 'DWD ZHUH LQFRPSOHWH RQ VRPH RI WKH FKLOGUHQ 'DWD RQ FKLOGUHQ ZHUH LQFOXGHG LQ DQ DQDO\VLV RQO\ LI FRPSOHWH GDWD ZHUH DYDLODEOH RQ WKHP LQ WKH FRQVWUXFW IDPLO\ EHLQJ LQYHVWLJDWHG 7KLV SURFHVV HQVXUHG WKDW WKH VDPSOH VL]H ZDV NHSW DW LWV PD[LPXP IRU HDFK DQDO\VLV ZLWKLQ HDFK RI WKH IDPLOLHV DQG OHG WR WKH FUHDWLRQ RI VXEVHWV ZLWK YDU\LQJ VL]HV 7KH QXPEHU RI SDUWLFLSDQWV XVHG IRU HDFK UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ LV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH UHVXOWV IRU WKDW K\SRWKHVLV 5HOLDELOLW\ LV WKH DFFXUDF\ RU SUHFLVLRQ RI D PHDVXULQJ LQVWUXPHQW ,Q WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ LQWHUUDWHU UHOLDELOLW\ ZDV WKH FRQVLVWHQF\ RI SODQXP WHPSRUDOH PHDVXUHPHQWV ZKHQ PHDVXUHG E\ GLIIHUHQW LQGLYLGXDOV ,QWUDUDWHU UHOLDELOLW\ LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZDV GHILQHG DV WKH DXWKRUfV FRQVLVWHQF\ LQ PHDVXULQJ WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DFURVV WLPH 7KH LQWHUUDWHU Q f DQG LQWUDUDWHU Q ?f UHOLDELOLW\ HVWLPDWHV ZHUH DGHTXDWH DQG DUH UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH

PAGE 63

7DEOH ,QWUDUDWHU DQG ,QWHUUDWHU 5HOLDELOLW\ IRU 1HXURDQDWRPLFDO 0HDVXUHPHQWV 6WUXFWXUH ,QWUDUDWHU 5HOLDELOLW\ Q ,QWHUUDWHU 5HOLDELOLW\ Q 3ODQXP 7HPSRUDOH /HIW +RUL]RQWDO 5LJKW +RUL]RQWDO /HIW $VFHQGLQJ 5LJKW $VFHQGLQJ $ FRUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ UHSRUWLQJ UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV DQG WKH OHIW KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP ULJKW KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP DQG WKH VXEVHTXHQW KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW LQGLFDWHV WKDW JHQGHU KDQGHGQHVV ,4 DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV 6(6f DUH QRW VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHODWHG WR KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ 7DEOH +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU 0HDVXUHPHQWV DQG $V\PPHWU\ &RHIILFLHQW &RUUHODWLRQV ZLWK &RQWURO 9DULDEOHV Q f &RUUHODWLRQ &RHIILFLHQWV *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV 6(6 +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW /HIW +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQXP 5LJKW +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQXP

PAGE 64

+\SRWKHVLV 7HVWLQJ 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ ,V WKH OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH LH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQWf DVVRFLDWHG SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK SUHUHDGLQJ VNLOOV VSHFLILFDOO\ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DPRQJ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ" 7KLV UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ ZDV DQDO\]HG XVLQJ WKUHH K\SRWKHVHV +\SRWKHVLV /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG WR WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ WHVW /$&f +\SRWKHVLV /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG WR WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH (OLVLRQ WDVN +\SRWKHVLV /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG WR DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV WHVW 7KH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LV WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV DUH UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW /$&f (OLVLRQ 7DVN DQG WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV WHVW 7KH 6366 UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV UHYHDOHG QR PXOWLYDULDWH RXWOLHUV WKDW H[FHHGHG WKH 0DKDODQRELV GLVWDQFH \M f 7KHUHIRUH WKH 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV IDPLO\ KDV DQ Q RI 7DEOH SUHVHQWV D GHVFULSWLRQ RI GDWD IURP WKLV VXEVHW RI SDUWLFLSDQWV

PAGE 65

7DEOH 'HVFULSWLYH 6WDWLVWLFV IRU WKH 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV )DPLO\ Q f 9DULDEOH Q b 0HDQ 6' 5DQJH *HQGHU %R\V *LUOV 5DFH(WKQLFLW\ $IULFDQ $PHULFDQ $VLDQ &DXFDVLDQ 1DWLYH $PHULFDQ +DQGHGQHVV 5LJKW 1RQ5LJKW $JH 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV %UDLQ 9ROXPH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW (OLVLRQ ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV 7DEOH UHSRUWV WKH FRUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ RI DOO YDULDEOHV RI LQWHUHVW IRU +\SRWKHVLV 2QH 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR FRUUHODWH SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV LH (OLVLRQ /$& DQG ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGVf 1R YDULDEOHV FRUUHODWH ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW 7KH /$& DQG ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV WHVWV FRUUHODWH

PAGE 66

ZLWK ,4 D YDULDEOH FRQWUROOHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV 1R RWKHU FRQWURO YDULDEOHV DUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV 7DEOH 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV 9DULDEOH )DPLO\ &RUUHODWLRQ 0DWUL[ Q f /$& (OLVLRQ ,QF :RUGV *HQGHU +DQG ,4 6(6 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW /HIW 3ODQXP r 5LJKW 3ODQXP /$& f§ rr (OLVLRQ f§ ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV f§ rr *HQGHU f§ +DQGHGQHVV f§ ,4 f§ 1RWH /$& /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW ,QF :RUGV ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV +DQG +DQGHGQHVV ,4 ,QWHOOLJHQFH 4XRWLHQW 6(6 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV rS! rrS +\SRWKHVLV WHVWLQJ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ ZRXOG EH VXSSRUWHG LI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZHUH DVVRFLDWHG SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK WKH WKUHH PHDVXUHV RI

PAGE 67

SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV ,W ZRXOG QRW EH VXSSRUWHG LI D UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZHUH QRW IRXQG RU ZDV QHJDWLYH 5HVXOWV DUH UHSRUWHG EHORZ +\SRWKHVLV (OLVLRQ WHVW SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH DVVRFLDWHG SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV LH RQH RI WKH ILYH OHYHOV RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVVf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b RI WKH YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ WKH (OLVLRQ

PAGE 68

VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5 ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ (OLVLRQf *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVVf ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW f 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f DQG WKH $GMXVWHG 5 LV ORZ 7KHUHIRUH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ GRHV QRW SUHGLFW WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH (OLVLRQ WHVW 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV LV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV +\SRWKHVLV /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ WHVW SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQf +RUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH DVVRFLDWHG SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV LH RQH RI WKH ILYH OHYHOV RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVVf DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ WHVW /$&f 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU WKLV YDULDEOH LV UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH 7R SUHGLFW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ,4 KDQGHGQHVV JHQGHU DQG 6(6 ZHUH HQWHUHG LQWR WKH PRGHO DV FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DGGHG DV WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV FRPELQHG WR VLJQLILFDQWO\ SUHGLFW SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ DQG FROOHFWLYHO\ FRQWULEXWHG b WR WKH YDULDQFH RI SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /$& 7DEOH f 0DOHV VFRUHG KLJKHU RQ WKH /$& WHVW WKDQ IHPDOHV LH 0DOHV ZHUH FRGHG DV DQG )HPDOHV DV f $ SDUWLFLSDQW LV SUHGLFWHG WR HDUQ SRLQWV RQ WKH /$& IRU HYHU\ SRLQW RI ,4

PAGE 69

7DEOH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ (TXDWLRQ 6XPPDU\ 9DULDEOH 3 W 3 5 $GMXVWHG 5 *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW &RQVWDQW 5 $GMXVWHG 5 n\ 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5n ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ /$&f *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVVf ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV2Of +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWO2f 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG WR WHVW WKLV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH DGGLWLRQ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW GLG QRW FKDQJH WKH DPRXQW RI YDULDQFH FRQWULEXWHG WR WKH HTXDWLRQ QRU ZDV LW D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV

PAGE 70

+\SRWKHVLV ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV 7HVW DXGLWRU\ FORVXUHf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n YDULDEOH 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV DFFRXQWHG IRU b RI WKH YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b $ SDUWLFLSDQW LV SUHGLFWHG WR HDUQ SRLQWV IRU HYHU\ SRLQW RI ,4 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5 ZKHQ

PAGE 71

WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGVf *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVV f ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVIO f +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWf 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG IRU WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV WHVW ZDV VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH DGGLWLRQ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW PDGH D b FKDQJH LQ WKH DPRXQW RI YDULDQFH FRQWULEXWHG WR WKH HTXDWLRQ DQG ZDV QRW D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV %RQIHUURQL $GMXVWPHQW $ %RQIHUURQL DGMXVWPHQW ZDV DSSOLHG WR PDLQWDLQ WKH IDPLO\ZLVH 7\SH HUURU DW D IRU UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ 7KH HTXDWLRQ ZDV DV IROORZV IRU WKH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV IDPLO\ 7KH HTXDWLRQV WKDW LQFOXGH WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /$& WHVWf DQG DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV WHVWf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

PAGE 72

VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRUV RI YDULDQFH LQ WKH PRGHO ZHUH JHQGHU DQG ,4 7KH WKLUG PRGHO LQ ZKLFK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR SUHGLFW DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV WHVW RI WKH :-5 ZDV VLJQLILFDQW +RZHYHU WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV QRW D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ ,V WKH OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH LH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQWf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f 7KH 6366 UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV UHYHDOHG RQH PXOWLYDULDWH RXWOLHU WKDW H[FHHGHG WKH 0DKDODQRELV GLVWDQFH [n f 7KLV FDVH ZDV UHPRYHG DQG QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKH

PAGE 73

DQDO\VLV RI WKH HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ IDPLO\ UHVXOWLQJ LQ DQ Q IRU WKLV K\SRWKHVLV RI 7DEOH SUHVHQWV D GHVFULSWLRQ RI GDWD IURP WKLV VXEVHW RI SDUWLFLSDQWV 7DEOH 'HVFULSWLYH 6WDWLVWLFV IRU WKH (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ )DPLO\ 9DULDEOH Q b 0HDQ 6' 5DQJH *HQGHU %R\V *LUOV 5DFH(WKQLFLW\ $IULFDQ $PHULFDQ $VLDQ &DXFDVLDQ 1DWLYH $PHULFDQ +DQGHGQHVV 5LJKW 1RQ5LJKW $JH 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV %UDLQ 9ROXPH /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ :RUG $WWDFN (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ (56,f 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ

PAGE 74

7DEOH (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ 9DULDEOH )DPLO\ &RUUHODWLRQ 0DWUL[ } f /: :$ 3& (56, ,4 6(6 *HQGHU +DQG 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW rr r r /HIW 3ODQXP 5LJKW 3ODQXP B rr r rr /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ f§ rr rr rr rr :RUG$WWDFN f§ rr rr r 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ f§ r rr (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ f§ rr ,4 f§ 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV f§ *HQGHU f§ 1RWH /: /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ :$ :RUG $WWDFN 3& 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ (56, (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ ,4 ,QWHOOLJHQFH 4XRWLHQW 6(6 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +DQG +DQGHGQHVV r S rr S

PAGE 75

$V H[SHFWHG GDWD IURP /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ DQG WKH (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ (56,f ZHUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW 7DEOH f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f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b RI WKH YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b %RWK ,4 DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW H[SODLQHG D VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQW RI YDULDQFH $ SDUWLFLSDQW LV SUHGLFWHG WR HDUQ /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ SRLQWV IRU HYHU\ SRLQW RI ,4

PAGE 76

7DEOH /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ (TXDWLRQ 6XPPDU\ 9DULDEOH 3 W 3 5 $GMXVWHG 5 *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW &RQVWDQW 5 $GMXVWHG 5 n\ 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5 ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH H[SUHVVHG DV IROORZV $ /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQf *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVVf ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW f 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG IRU WKH /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ ZDV VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV

PAGE 77

SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG WR WKH DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ OHWWHUV DQG ZRUGV 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV +\SRWKHVLV :RUG $WWDFN UHDGLQJ SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGVf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b RI WKH

PAGE 78

YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ :RUG $WWDFN VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b RI WKH YDULDQFH $ SDUWLFLSDQW LV SUHGLFWHG WR HDUQ SRLQWV IRU HYHU\ SRLQW RI ,4 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5 ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO DSSURDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH ) f S f 7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ :RUG$WWDFNf *HQGHU f +DQGHGQHVV f ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWfAf 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV +\SRWKHVLV (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ EDVLF UHDGLQJ VNLOOVf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ (56,f 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU WKLV YDULDEOH LV UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH 7R SUHGLFW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ OHWWHU DQG ZRUG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ VNLOOV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ,4 KDQGHGQHVV JHQGHU DQG 6(6 ZHUH HQWHUHG LQWR WKH PRGHO DV FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DGGHG DV WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV DFFRXQWHG IRU b RI WKH YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ WKH (56, VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b $ SDUWLFLSDQW LV SUHGLFWHG WR HDUQ SRLQWV IRU HYHU\ SRLQW RI ,4 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5 ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f

PAGE 79

7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ (56,f *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVVf ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWAf 7DEOH (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\ 9DULDEOH 3 W 3 5 $GMXVWHG 5 *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 SF2O 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW &RQVWDQW 5 $GMXVWHG 5 7KH HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG ZDV VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW H[SODLQHG D VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQW RI YDULDQFH /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG WR HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV SDUWLFXODUO\ ,4 ZHUH DOVR VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRUV 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV +\SRWKHVLV 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ VNLOOV DV

PAGE 80

PHDVXUHG E\ WKH 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ VXEWHVW 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU WKLV YDULDEOH LV UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH 7DEOH 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ 9DULDEOH W 3 5 $GMXVWHG 5 *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 SF 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW S &RQVWDQW R 9 D 5 $GMXVWHG 5a 7R SUHGLFW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ,4 KDQGHGQHVV JHQGHU DQG 6(6 ZHUH HQWHUHG LQWR WKH PRGHO DV FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DGGHG DV WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV DFFRXQWHG IRU b RI WKH YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b $ SDUWLFLSDQW LV SUHGLFWHG WR HDUQ SRLQWV RQ WKH 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ WHVW IRU HYHU\ SRLQW RI ,4 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5a ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV VLJQLILFDQW )Of S f

PAGE 81

7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQf *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVVf ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWAf 7KH HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG ZDV VLJQLILFDQW ) f Sf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f HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\f DQG UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ VNLOOV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ WHVWf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

PAGE 82

FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK ,4 H[SODLQHG b RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ WKH DELOLW\ WR UHDG OHWWHUV DQG ZRUGV 7ZHQW\ILYH SHUFHQW RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV ZDV H[SODLQHG E\ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG WKH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV SDUWLFXODUO\ ,4 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG ,4 H[SODLQHG b RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ 7KXV SDUWLDO VXSSRUW IRU UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ ZDV IRXQG 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH LH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQWf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f UHVXOWLQJ LQ DQ Q IRU WKLV K\SRWKHVLV RI 7KLV FDVH ZDV UHPRYHG DQG QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ IDPLO\ 7DEOH SUHVHQWV D GHVFULSWLRQ RI GDWD IURP WKLV VXEVHW RI SDUWLFLSDQWV

PAGE 83

7DEOH 'HVFULSWLYH 6WDWLVWLFV IRU WKH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ )DPLO\ 9DULDEOH Q b 0HDQ 6' 5DQJH *HQGHU %R\V *LUOV 5DFH(WKQLFLW\ $IULFDQ $PHULFDQ $VLDQ &DXFDVLDQ +DQGHGQHVV 5LJKW 1RQ5LJKW $JH 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV %UDLQ 9ROXPH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ&RORUV 5DSLG 1DPLQJ /HWWHUV 5DSLG 1DPLQJ1XPEHUV 7DEOH UHSRUWV WKH FRUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ RI DOO YDULDEOHV RI LQWHUHVW IRU +\SRWKHVLV 7KUHH 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR FRUUHODWH SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV LH UDSLG QDPLQJ RI FRORUV OHWWHUV DQG QXPEHUVf +RZHYHU QR YDULDEOHV ZHUH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW 7KH UDSLG QDPLQJ RI FRORUV ZDV FRUUHODWHG WR 6(6 D FRQWURO YDULDEOH

PAGE 84

7DEOH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ 9DULDEOH )DPLO\ &RUUHODWLRQ 0DWUL[ } f &RORUV 1XPEHUV /HWWHUV *HQGHU +DQG ,4 6(6 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW /HIW 3ODQXP 5LJKW 3ODQXP &RORUV f§ rr rr rr 1XPEHUV f§ rr /HWWHUV f§ *HQGHU f§ +DQGHGQHVV f§ ,4 f§ 1RWH +DQG +DQGHGQHVV ,4 ,QWHOOLJHQFH 4XRWLHQW 6(6 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV rS! rrS +\SRWKHVLV 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI &RORUV SKRQHWLF UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVVf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR SUHGLFW WKH DELOLW\ WR QDPH FRORUV UDSLGO\ 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU WKLV YDULDEOH LV UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH

PAGE 85

7DEOH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI &RORUV (TXDWLRQ 6XPPDU\ 9DULDEOH W 3 5 $GMXVWHG 5 *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW &RQVWDQW 5 $GMXVWHG 5 7R SUHGLFW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ QDPLQJ FRORUV UDSLGO\ DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ,4 KDQGHGQHVV JHQGHU DQG 6(6 ZHUH HQWHUHG LQWR WKH PRGHO DV FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DGGHG DV WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV FRQWULEXWHG SURYLGHG IRU b RI WKH YDULDQFH RI 5DSLG 1DPLQJ IRU &RORUV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW FRQWULEXWHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5 ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f

PAGE 86

7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI &RORUVf *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVVf ,4f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWf +RZHYHU WKH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f DQG WKH $GMXVWHG 5 LV ORZ DW 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV +\SRWKHVLV 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI 1XPEHUV SKRQHWLF UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVVf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR SUHGLFW WKH DELOLW\ WR QDPH QXPEHUV UDSLGO\ 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU WKLV YDULDEOH LV UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH 7DEOH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI 1XPEHUV (TXDWLRQ 6XPPDU\ 9DULDEOH 3 W 3 5 $GMXVWHG 5 *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW &RQVWDQW 5 $GMXVWHG 5

PAGE 87

7R SUHGLFW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ QDPLQJ QXPEHUV UDSLGO\ DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ,4 KDQGHGQHVV JHQGHU DQG 6(6 ZHUH HQWHUHG LQWR WKH PRGHO DV FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DGGHG DV WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV DFFRXQWHG IRU b RI WKH YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI 1XPEHUV VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5 ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI 1XPEHUVf *HQGHUf +DQGHGQHVVf ,4 f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWf 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f DQG WKH $GMXVWHG 5 LV ORZ DW 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV +\SRWKHVLV 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI /HWWHUV SKRQHWLF UHFRGLQJ LQ OH[LFDO DFFHVVf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR SUHGLFW WKH DELOLW\ WR QDPH OHWWHUV UDSLGO\ 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VLV RI WKLV YDULDEOH LV UHSRUWHG LQ 7DEOH 7R SUHGLFW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ QDPLQJ QXPEHUV UDSLGO\ DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ,4 KDQGHGQHVV JHQGHU DQG 6(6 ZHUH HQWHUHG LQWR WKH PRGHO DV FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DGGHG DV WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV DFFRXQWHG IRU b RI WKH YDULDQFH ZLWKLQ WKH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI /HWWHUV VFRUHV DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW SURYLGHG DQ DGGLWLRQDO b

PAGE 88

7DEOH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI /HWWHUV (TXDWLRQ 6XPPDU\ 9DULDEOH 3 W 3 5 $GMXVWHG 5 *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQW &RQVWDQW 5 $GMXVWHG 5 7KH FKDQJH LQ 5n ZKHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV DGGHG WR WKH PRGHO ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f 7KH YDULDEOHV LQ WKH HTXDWLRQ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG DV IROORZV $ 5DSLG 1DPLQJ RI /HWWHUVf *HQGHUf+DQGHGQHVV f ,4 f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXVf +RUL]RQWDO 3ODQDU &RHIILFLHQWf 7KH UHJUHVVLRQ HTXDWLRQ FUHDWHG ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW ) f S f DQG WKH $GMXVWHG 5a LV ORZ DW 7KHUHIRUH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ GRHV QRW SUHGLFW WKH DELOLW\ QDPH OHWWHUV UDSLGO\ 7KXV K\SRWKHVLV LV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKLV DQDO\VLV

PAGE 89

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n IRU DQ\ K\SRWKHVLV WHVWHG ZDV 7DEOH f 7KH PRGHO IURP ZKLFK WKLV 5 ZDV GHULYHG KDG SDUWLFLSDQWV $ PXOWLSOH FRUUHODWLRQ SRZHU DQDO\VLV ZLWK ILYH SUHGLFWRUV ZDV SHUIRUPHG IRU D WRWDO 5 DW D ZLWK SDUWLFLSDQWV 7KH SRZHU REWDLQHG ZDV D ILJXUH WKDW LV H[FHOOHQW 7KH 5DSLG 1DPLQJ FRQVWUXFW IDPLO\ KDG IHZHU FDVHV DQG D PXFK VPDOOHU 5 $ PXOWLSOH FRUUHODWLRQ SRZHU DQDO\VLV ZLWK ILYH SUHGLFWRUV ZDV SHUIRUPHG IRU D WRWDO 5 DW D ZLWK FDVHV 7KH SRZHU REWDLQHG ZDV D ILJXUH WKDW LV ORZ +RZHYHU LI PRUH RI WKH YDULDQFH KDG EHHQ H[SODLQHG E\ WKLV FRQVWUXFW IDPLO\ DQG WKH SRZHU DQDO\VLV FRQGXFWHG ZLWK WKHVH SDUDPHWHUV LH PRUH YDULDQFH H[SODLQHG E\ WKH PRGHO EXW WKH VDPH Qf WKHUH ZDV VXIILFLHQW SRZHU )RU H[DPSOH D PXOWLSOH FRUUHODWLRQ SRZHU DQDO\VLV ZLWK ILYH SUHGLFWRUV ZDV SHUIRUPHG IRU D WRWDO 5 DW D ZLWK FDVHV WKH SRZHU REWDLQHG LV ZKLFK LV H[FHOOHQW 3RZHU DSSDUHQWO\ ZDV VXIILFLHQW KDG WKH PRGHO H[SODLQHG PRUH YDULDQFH

PAGE 90

7DEOH 3RZHU $QDO\VLV 5 3UHGLFWRUV Q 3RZHU WR LL Y2 3UHGLFWRUV Q 3RZHU 5 3UHGLFWRUV Q O 3RZHU

PAGE 91

7DEOH 6XPPDU\ RI +\SRWKHVLV 7HVWLQJ &RQVWUXFW 3UHGLFWRU &RQWURO 3ODQDU )DPLO\ 9DULDEOH 9DULDEOHV &RHIILFLHQW &KDQJH S YDOXH $GMXVWHG 5f $GMXVWHG 5 /$& (OLVLRQ 16 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV %RQIHUURQL $GMXVWPHQW /HWWHU:RUG ,' :RUG $WWDFN 3DVVDJH (PHUJHQW &RPSUHKHQVLRQ 5HDGLQJ (56, %RQIHUURQL $GMXVWPHQW &RORUV 16 /HWWHUV 16 5DSLG 1DPLQJ 1XPEHUV ; 16 %RQIHUURQL $GMXVWPHQW

PAGE 92

&+$37(5 ',6&866,21 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR SURYLGH DGGLWLRQDO LQIRUPDWLRQ DV WR WKH LQIOXHQFH RI QHXURDQDWRP\ RQ \RXQJ FKLOGUHQfV HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV 6SHFLILFDOO\ UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH GHJUHH RI DV\PPHWU\ LQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG UDSLG QDPLQJ VNLOOV ZHUH H[DPLQHG 7KH DUHD RI WKH OHIW SODQXP WHPSRUDOH W\SLFDOO\ LV ORQJHU WKDQ WKH DUHD RI WKH ULJKW SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DQG LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ODQJXDJH IXQFWLRQ *HVFKZLQG t /HYLWVN\ %HVW )RXQGDV HW DO 3ODQWH HW DO f 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DOVR KDV EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV /HRQDUG HW DO f DQG WKH XVH RI SKRQHPHV LQ ODQJXDJH 'DPDVLR HW DO f /RQJLWXGLQDO VWXGLHV KDYH IRXQG D UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ 6QLGHU 0DF'RQDOG HW DO 7RUJHVHQ HW DO 6DORQHQ HW DO /XQGEHUJ HW DO f %DVHG RQ SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK /HRQDUG HW DO f FKLOGUHQ ZLWK PRUH DGYDQFHG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV ZHUH H[SHFWHG WR KDYH D JUHDWHU GHJUHH RI OHIWZDUG SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ WKDQ FKLOGUHQ ZKRVH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG UDSLG QDPLQJ DELOLWLHV ZHUH OHVV GHYHORSHG 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW LH OHIWZDUG KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\f ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH UHODWHG SRVLWLYHO\ ZLWK SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV 7KH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV UHVHDUFK TXHVWLRQ ZDV WHVWHG XVLQJ WKUHH H[SODQDWRU\ PXOWLSOH UHJUHVVLRQ

PAGE 93

HTXDWLRQV 7KH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH ZDV WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ZHUH WKH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW /$&f HJ D PHDVXUH RI SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQf (OLVLRQ 7DVN HJ D PHDVXUH RI SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQf DQG WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV VXEWHVW HJ D PHDVXUH RI DXGLWRU\ FORVXUHf +\SRWKHVLV (OLVLRQ 7HVW 3KRQHPH 0DQLSXODWLRQf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG ZLWK WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ SHUIRUPDQFH RQ WKH (OLVLRQ WHVW 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW +\SRWKHVLV /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW 3KRQHPH 0DQLSXODWLRQf 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG ZLWK WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ SHUIRUPDQFH RQ WKH /$& :KLOH WKH HTXDWLRQ ZDV VLJQLILFDQW RQO\ JHQGHU DQG ,4 SUHGLFWHG WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV &ROOHFWLYHO\ WKH\ H[SODLQHG b RI WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV +\SRWKHVLV ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG ZLWK DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV VXEWHVW IURP WKH :RRGFRFN-RKQVRQ 3V\FKRHGXFDWLRQDO %DWWHU\5HYLVHG :-5f 7KH HTXDWLRQ ZDV VLJQLILFDQW +RZHYHU RQO\ ,4 D FRQWURO YDULDEOH SUHGLFWHG RI DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV 7KH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV SDUWLFXODUOD\ ,4 H[SODLQHG b RI WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV

PAGE 94

5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ 'LVFXVVLRQ /DQJXDJH IXQFWLRQ KDV ORQJ EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH %HVW )RXQGDV HW DO 3ODQWH HW DO f &KLOGUHQ ZLWK GDPDJH WR WKH SRVWHULRU SHULV\OYLDQ UHJLRQ KDV EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GLVUXSWLRQV LQ WKH DELOLW\ WR FRPELQH SKRQHPHV LQWR ZRUGV DQG WR VHOHFW WKH PRVW DSSURSULDWH ZRUG IRU WKH FRQWH[W 'DPDVLR t 'DPDVLR f 3ULRU UHVHDUFK KDG VXJJHVWHG D UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV /HRQDUG HW DO f DQG WKH XVH RI SKRQHPHV LQ ODQJXDJH 'DPDVLR HW DO f )HZ VWXGLHV IRFXVLQJ RQ UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZHUH ORFDWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH $ FORVHU LQVSHFWLRQ RI WKH GDWD UHYHDOV WKDW DOWKRXJK WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DQG DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV LH WKH /$& DQG WKH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV WHVWf SURGXFHG VLJQLILFDQW UHVXOWV WKH YDULDQFH H[SODLQHG FDQ EH DWWULEXWHG WR WKH FROOHFWLYH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI JHQGHU DQG ,4 0RUH VSHFLILFDOO\ b RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ WKH SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ WDVN LV DWWULEXWDEOH WR WKH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV SDUWLFXODUO\ JHQGHU DQG ,4 +DQGHGQHVV DQG 6(6 KDYH QR DSSDUHQW UHODWLRQ ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW RU SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV *HQGHU DQG ,4 SUHGLFW D VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQW RI YDULDELOLW\ LQ SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ LH /$&f DV WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV QRW D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RI WKLV VNLOO 7KHUHIRUH FKLOGUHQfV DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /$& VHHPLQJO\ LV LQIOXHQFHG PRUH E\ WKHLU ,4 DQG JHQGHU WKDQ WKHLU KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW 7KH /$& LV D QRYHO WDVN IRU PRVW FKLOGUHQ DQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH /$& DQG ,4 LV QRW VXUSULVLQJ 7KH /$& UHTXLUHV FKLOGUHQ WR UHFRJQL]H WKDW FRORUHG EORFNV

PAGE 95

UHSUHVHQW VRXQGV GHPRQVWUDWH ZLWK WKH FRORUHG EORFNV QRYHO ZRUGV VSRNHQ E\ WKH H[DPLQHU DQG PDQLSXODWH WKH EORFNV WR UHSUHVHQW SKRQHPH FKDQJHV LH fSLSr WR fSDSff 7KH OHYHO RI GLIILFXOW\ SUHVHQWHG E\ WKH WDVN PD\ LQWURGXFH FRQVWUXFW LUUHOHYDQWYDULDQFH LQ WKH IRUP RI FRQVWUXFW LUUHOHYDQW GLIILFXOW\ 0HVVLFN f %\ ,4 EHLQJ D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RI /$& SHUIRUPDQFH LW VXJJHVWV WKDW WKLV WDVN PD\ GUDZ KHDYLO\ RQ IOXLGn UHDVRQLQJ DELOLW\ %ULJKWHU FKLOGUHQ PD\ XVH WKHLU DGYDQFHG SUREOHPVROYLQJ DQG UHDVRQLQJ VNLOOV WR XQGHUVWDQG DQG FRPSOHWH WKLV QRYHO WDVN WKDW PD\ EDIIOH WKHLU OHVV HQGRZHG SHHUV *HQGHU +DQGHGQHVV ,4 6(6 DQG OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZHUH QRW UHODWHG ZLWK WKH DELOLW\ WR PDQLSXODWH SKRQHPHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH (OLVLRQ WDVN 7KH (OLVLRQ WDVN LV D PXFK VLPSOHU WDVN WKDQ WKH /$& DQG LV SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH IRUP RI D fZRUG JDPHf $OWKRXJK WKLV WDVN LV QRYHO WR PRVW FKLOGUHQ LW UHTXLUHV OHVV KLJKHU OHYHO UHDVRQLQJ VNLOOV WKDQ WKH /$& DQG LV SUHVHQWHG YHUEDOO\ ,4 ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RI YDULDELOLW\ LQ DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV LH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGVf +DQGHGQHVV JHQGHU 6(6 DQG WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW KDYH QR DSSDUHQW UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK WKLV VNLOO &KLOGUHQfV DELOLW\ WR IRUP ZRUGV ZLWK SKRQHPLF VHJPHQWV PLVVLQJ VHHPLQJO\ LV LQIOXHQFHG PRUH E\ WKHLU ,4 WKDQ WKHLU KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW $Q LQVSHFWLRQ RI WKH FRUUHODWLRQ PDWUL[ IRU WKH SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV IDPLO\ UHYHDOV WKDW SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ LH /$&f DQG DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV LH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGVf ZHUH KLJKO\ FRUUHODWHG ZLWK ,4 ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH WZR SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ WDVNV WKH /$& DQG (OLVLRQ WHVWV DOVR ZHUH KLJKO\ LQWHUFRUUHODWHG ZLWK HDFK RWKHU

PAGE 96

7KH ILQGLQJ WKDW ,4 ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU RI SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ LH /$&f DQG DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV LH ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGVf LV FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK D VXEVWDQWLDO QXPEHU RI VWXGLHV IRXQG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH GRFXPHQWLQJ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ,4 DQG DFDGHPLF DFKLHYHPHQW 6DWWOHU +HUQVWHLQ t 0XUUD\ &DUYHU &RUQZDOO f 7KH OHYHO RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV DVVHVVHG E\ WKH LQVWUXPHQWV DGPLQLVWHUHG PD\ KDYH EHHQ WRR DGYDQFHG IRU WKH \RXQJ FKLOGUHQ LQ WKLV VWXG\ 7KH LPSOLFDWLRQV RI WKLV DGYDQFHG OHYHO RI GLIILFXOW\ DUH GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH OLPLWDWLRQV VHFWLRQ 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW LH OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOHf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b RI WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH DELOLW\ WR UHDG OHWWHUV DQG ZRUGV

PAGE 97

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bf RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ EDVLF UHDGLQJ VNLOOV +\SRWKHVLV 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ VNLOOV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH SDVVDJH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ VXEWHVW 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG ,4 ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRUV FROOHFWLYHO\ H[SODLQLQJ b RI WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ DELOLW\ 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ 'LVFXVVLRQ 7KH OHIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG ZLWK HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV /RQJLWXGLQDO VWXGLHV KDYH IRXQG D SUHGLFWLYH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG ODWHU UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ 6QLGHU 0DF 'RQDOG t &RUQZDOO 6DORQHQ HW DO /XQGEHUJ HW DO f 3UH UHDGLQJ SUHVFKRRO FKLOGUHQ ZKR VKRZHG VLJQV RI HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ GHPRQVWUDWHG KLJKHU SKRQHPLF DQG SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV WKDQ WKHLU VDPH DJHG SHHUV %RZH\ f 6WXGLHV IRFXVLQJ RQ UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG WKH SODQXP WHPSRUDOH FRXOG QRW EH ORFDWHG %HFDXVH UHODWLRQVKLSV LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH EHWZHHQ

PAGE 98

SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ DQG UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DUH ZHOO HVWDEOLVKHG 6QLGHU 0DF'RQDOG t &RUQZDOO 7RUJHVHQ HW DO 6DORQHQ HW DK /XQGEHUJ HW DK f KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG ZLWK HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV 7KLV K\SRWKHVLV ZDV SDUWLDOO\ FRQILUPHG LQ WKLV SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZLWK WKUHH RI WKH IRXU HTXDWLRQV WHVWLQJ WKH (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ K\SRWKHVLV EHLQJ VLJQLILFDQW 2QH RI WKH PRVW FRPSHOOLQJ ILQGLQJ ZLWKLQ WKH HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ IDPLO\ ZDV WKH DPRXQW RI YDULDQFH LH bf H[SODLQHG E\ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW LQ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI OHWWHUZRUG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ VNLOOV 7KH DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ OHWWHUV DQG UHDG FRPPRQ VLJKW ZRUGV ZDV SUHGLFWHG E\ OHIWZDUG KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ 5HFDOO WKDW WKH WRWDO DPRXQW RI YDULDQFH H[SODLQHG E\ WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DQG WKH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV ZDV b ZLWK b RI WKH YDULDQFH H[SODLQHG E\ WKH FRQWURO YDULDEOHV 7KXV b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bf 5HDGLQJ LV D FRPSOH[ WDVN WKDW UHTXLUHV WKH V\QWKHVLV RI PDQ\ FRJQLWLYH DELOLWLHV DQG VNLOOV DV ZHOO DV QRQFRJQLWLYH TXDOLWLHV HJ LQWHUHVW PRWLYDWLRQ SHUVLVWHQFHf )XUWKHUPRUH WKH QHXURELRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV LPSDFWLQJ UHDGLQJ DUH OLNHO\ WR EH GLVSHUVHG EURDGO\ WKURXJKRXW WKH EUDLQ DQG QRW FRQILQHG WR RQH VSHFLILF UHJLRQ 6WXGLHV LQYHVWLJDWLQJ WKH FXOPLQDWLQJ HIIHFWV RI

PAGE 99

PXOWLSOH DQDWRPLFDO VWUXFWXUHV DQG WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLS WR UHDGLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV /HRQDUG (FNHUW /RPEDUGLQR 2DNODQG .UDQ]OHU 0RKU .LQJ t )UHHPDQ f DQG VFKL]RSKUHQLD /HRQDUG .XOGDX %UHLHU =XIIDQWH *DXWLHU +HURQ /DYHU\ 3DFNLQJ :LOOLDPV t 'H%RVH f KDYH VXEVWDQWLDWHG WKLV K\SRWKHVLV 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW GLG QRW SUHGLFW WKH DELOLW\ WR UHDG SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH :RUG$WWDFN VXEWHVW &KLOGUHQ PXVW DSSO\ SKRQHPLF DQG VWUXFWXUDO DQDO\VLV VNLOOV ZKHQ SURQRXQFLQJ SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV ,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKH PHDVXUH RI WKH DELOLW\ WR UHDG SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV ZDV FDWHJRUL]HG DV D PHDVXUH RI EDVLF UHDGLQJ DELOLW\ 5HOLDQFH RQ DQ LQGLYLGXDOf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f ZKLFK LV KLJKO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ VWURQJ SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ VNLOOV DOVR PD\ LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH SURFHVVHV LQYROYHG LQ SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ DUH GLVSHUVHG PRUH EURDGO\ DQG LQ VHYHUDO UHJLRQV RI WKH EUDLQ 7KH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU FRHIILFLHQW DSSHDUV WR

PAGE 100

EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VLJKW ZRUG UHDGLQJ DQG UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ WKH VXEFRPSRQHQW VHW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV VNLOOV 5HVHDUFK 4XHVWLRQ 5DSLG 1DPLQJ 7KH RFFXUUHQFH RI GHILFLWV LQ QDPLQJVSHHG KDYH EHHQ IRXQG LQ SHUVRQV ZLWK VHYHUH UHDGLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV :DJQHU HW DO :ROIH )HOWRQ HW DO f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f DUH KLJKO\ LQWHUFRUUHODWHG 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ QDPLQJ QXPEHUV DQG OHWWHUV UDSLGO\ LV SDUWLFXODUO\ VWURQJ U f 7KH VWURQJ UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ QDPLQJ OHWWHUV DQG QXPEHUV UDSLGO\ PD\ EH GXH WR WKHLU UHO\LQJ RQ VLPLODU FRJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV )XUWKHUPRUH LQ WKDW WKH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ QDPLQJ FRORUV UDSLGO\ DQG QDPLQJ OHWWHUV DQG QXPEHUV LV VRPHZKDW ORZHU LH WKH PLG Vf WKH QDPLQJ RI FRORUV UDSLGO\ PD\ UHO\ RQ VRPHZKDW GLIIHUHQW FRJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV 7KH UDSLG QDPLQJ RI OHWWHUV DQG QXPEHUV KDV EHHQ IRXQG WR

PAGE 101

EH PRUH SUHGLFWLYH RI UHDGLQJ VNLOOV WKDQ WKH UDSLG QDPLQJ RI FRORUV :DJQHU 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH f 2WKHU )LQGLQJV )RXU YDULDEOHV LH JHQGHU KDQGHGQHVV LQWHOOLJHQFH DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXVf ZHUH FRQWUROOHG WKURXJK VWDWLVWLFDO DQDO\VHV 6WURQJ OLQNV EHWZHHQ LQWHOOHFWXDO DELOLW\ DFDGHPLF DFKLHYHPHQW DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV DUH ZHOO HVWDEOLVKHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH *HQGHU DQG KDQGHGQHVV KDYH EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ODQJXDJH IXQFWLRQ DQG FRUWLFDO YROXPH *HQGHU %UDLQ ZHLJKW DQG YROXPH DUH JUHDWHU LQ PDOHV WKDQ IHPDOHV DW DOO DJHV 'HNDEDQ t 6DGRZVN\ &DYLQHVV HW DO 5HLVV HW DO *LHGG *LHGG HW DO f *HQGHU ZKLFK ZDV FRQWUROOHG LQ WKH DQDO\VHV ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH UHODWHG WR WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ FRHIILFLHQW DQG WKXV SUHGLFW SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DQG UDSLG QDPLQJ VNLOOV *HQGHU ZDV QRW FRUUHODWHG ZLWK WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQDU DV\PPHWU\ FRHIILFLHQW *HQGHU ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW SUHGLFWRU LQ RQO\ RQH RI WKH WHQ DQDO\VHV LH SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVWf *HQGHU FRPELQHG ZLWK ,4 WR SUHGLFW b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

PAGE 102

HW DO f ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW VXSHULRU WHPSRUDO J\UL RFFXSLHG b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t *DODEXUGD .LQVERXUQH f 7KH ODWHUDOL]DWLRQ RI ODQJXDJH IXQFWLRQLQJ WR WKH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH DOPRVW DOZD\V RFFXUV LQ ULJKWKDQGHG LQGLYLGXDOV 7KH ODWHUDOL]DWLRQ RI ODQJXDJH IXQFWLRQLQJ LQ OHIW KDQGHG LQGLYLGXDOV LV OHVV FHUWDLQ +DUULV t &DUOVRQ f 7KH OHIW KHPLVSKHUH LV ODWHUDOL]HG IRU ODQJXDJH LQ DERXW b WR b RI OHIWKDQGHUV ZLWK WKH UHPDLQLQJ b WR b EHLQJ ODWHUDOL]HG ULJKWZDUG RU ELODWHUDOO\ +DUULV t &DUOVRQ f +DQGHGQHVV ZDV FRQWUROOHG LQ WKH VWXG\ 7KH FODVVLILFDWLRQ V\VWHP XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ UHVXOWHG LQ D KDQGHGQHVV TXRWLHQW 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH FODVVLILHG DV ULJKWKDQGHG LI WKH\ ZURWH ZLWK WKHLU ULJKW KDQG DQG KDG D TXRWLHQW RI RU JUHDWHU $OO RWKHUV ZHUH FODVVLILHG DV QRQULJKW 7KXV DOO SDUWLFLSDQWV QRW IDOOLQJ LQ WKH VWURQJO\ ULJKWKDQGHG FDWHJRU\ ZHUH FODVVLILHG DV QRQULJKW KDQGHG

PAGE 103

7KDW LV WKH VWURQJO\ OHIWKDQGHG SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH FRPELQHG ZLWK DPELGH[WURXV DQG SHUVRQV ZKR PLJKW ZULWH ZLWK WKHLU ULJKW KDQG EXW GR RWKHU WDVNV HJ WKURZ RU FDWFKf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f )XUWKHUPRUH WKH QHXURELRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV LPSDFWLQJ UHDGLQJ DUH OLNHO\ WR EH GLVSHUVHG EURDGO\ DQG QRW FRQILQHG WR RQH VSHFLILF UHJLRQ ,QWHOOLJHQFH WRR LV D UREXVW TXDOLW\ DQG GRHV QRW UHIOHFW VSHFLILF DQG LVRODWHG VNLOOV ,QWHOOLJHQFH PD\ EH WKH EHVW SUHGLFWRU RI D SHUVRQnV DELOLW\ WR UHDG SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ VSHOOLQJ SURVH SDVVDJH VSHHG DQG UHDGLQJ DFFXUDF\ VFRUHV &DUYHU &RUQZDOO f ,QWHOOLJHQFH ZDV FRQWUROOHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ WR KHOS HQVXUH FKLOGUHQnV SHUIRUPDQFH ZDV QRW PHUHO\ D UHVXOW RI WKHLU LQWHOOHFWXDO DELOLW\ ,QWHOOLJHQFH H[SODLQHG D VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQW RI YDULDQFH LQ WKH VWXG\fV ILYH VLJQLILFDQW HTXDWLRQV DQG FRQWULEXWHG WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ IRXU ,QWHOOLJHQFH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW FRQWULEXWRU WR WKH YDULDQFH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ DXGLWRU\ FORVXUH IRU PLVVLQJ SKRQHPHV VLJKW ZRUG UHDGLQJ VNLOOV UHDGLQJ FRPSUHKHQVLRQ DQG HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VNLOOV

PAGE 104

,QWHOOLJHQFH FRUUHODWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ ZLWK VHYHUDO SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV DQG HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ VNLOOV LH /LQGDPRRG $XGLWRU\ &RQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ 7HVW ,QFRPSOHWH :RUGV /HWWHU:RUG ,GHQWLILFDWLRQ :RUG $WWDFN 3DVVDJH &RPSUHKHQVLRQ (DUO\ 5HDGLQJ 6FUHHQLQJ ,QYHQWRU\f $V VXJJHVWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH &DUYHU &RUQZDOO 6DWWOHU +HUUQVWHLQ t 0XUUD\ f LQWHOOLJHQFH SUHGLFWHG DFDGHPLF VNLOOV LQ WKLV VWXG\ 6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6WDWXV 6RFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV 6(6f LV VWURQJO\ OLQNHG ZLWK LQWHOOHFWXDO DELOLW\ DV ZHOO DV UHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG RWKHU DFKLHYHPHQW DUHDV 7KXV LW ZDV FRQWUROOHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ 7KH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ D IDPLO\fV 6(6 DQG FKLOGUHQfV LQWHOOLJHQFH WHVW VFRUHV DYHUDJH DERXW 6DWWOHU $QGHUVVRQ HW DO f +RPH HQYLURQPHQW DQG 6(6 SUHGLFW FKLOGUHQfV LQWHOOLJHQFH PRVW VWURQJO\ 0ROIHVH HW DO f 6RFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VHQVLWLYLW\ WR SKRQRORJLFDO VWUXFWXUH :DOODFK HW DO f WKH DELOLW\ WR LGHQWLI\ ZRUGV DQG WR UHDG SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV &RUQZDOO f 6XUSULVLQJO\ 6(6 GLG QRW FRQWULEXWH WR WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH YDULDQFH LQ WKH UHDGLQJ VNLOOV ,Q RWKHU VWXGLHV FKLOGUHQ IURP PLGGOH 6(6 EDFNJURXQGV KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR KDYH PRUH KLJKO\ GHYHORSHG SKRQRORJLFDO VWUXFWXUH PRUH DGYDQFHG SUHUHDGLQJ VNLOOV DQG XVH PRUH VWDQGDUG SKRQRORJLFDO DQG JUDPPDWLFDO FRPSRQHQWV WKDQ SHHUV LQ ORZHU VRFLRHFRQRPLF JURXSV &RUQZDOO 'LFNLQVRQ t 6QRZ 5DWXVQLN t .RHQLJVNQHFKW :DOODFK HW DO f +RZHYHU 6(6 FRUUHODWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ S f ZLWK QDPLQJ FRORUV UDSLGO\ U f ,GHQWLI\LQJ FRORUV LV RQH RI WKH ILUVW HDUO\ DFDGHPLF VNLOOV OHDUQHG E\ SUHVFKRROHUV DQG LV RIWHQ SDVVLYHO\ WDXJKW LQ WKH KRPH E\ D FKLOGnV SDUHQWV 0LGGOH 6(6 FKLOGUHQ KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR KDYH DQ DGYDQWDJH RYHU WKHLU

PAGE 105

ORZHU 6(6 FRXQWHUSDUWV LQ PDQ\ DFDGHPLF DQG ODQJXDJH DUHDV ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW FKLOGUHQ IURP PLGGOH 6(6 IDPLOLHV KDYH PRUH H[SHULHQFH ZLWK WKH QDPHV RI FRORUV DQG WKLV IDPLOLDULW\ OHDGV WR WKHLU DGYDQWDJH LH DXWRPDWLFLW\f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t 'DUOLQJWRQ 6FKZHLQKDUW %DUQHV t :HLNDUW 6FKZHLQKDUW t :HLNDUW f &KLOGUHQ LQ WKH SUHVHQW VWXG\ ZHUH EHJLQQLQJ WKHLU VFKRRO FDUHHUV DQG PD\ KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI D TXDOLW\ SUHVFKRRO SURJUDP WKH\ KDG DWWHQGHG SUHYLRXVO\ 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ D TXDOLW\ HDUO\ LQWHUYHQWLRQ SURJUDP KDV EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQFUHDVHG DFDGHPLF DFKLHYHPHQW LPSURYHG LQWHOOLJHQFH VFRUHV LQ WKH HDUO\ JUDGHV KLJKHU OHYHOV RI VFKRROLQJ KLJKHU JUDGXDWLRQ UDWHV VLJQLILFDQWO\ IHZHU SODFHPHQWV LQ VSHFLDO HGXFDWLRQ DQG IHZHU UHWHQWLRQV /D]DU t 'DUOLQJWRQ 6FKZHLQKDUW %DUQHV t :HLNDUW 6FKZHLQKDUW t :HLNDUW f /RZHU 6(6 FKLOGUHQ W\SLFDOO\ ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG WR SHUIRUP ORZHU WKDQ WKHLU KLJKHU 6(6 SHHUV ,QIRUPDWLRQ UHJDUGLQJ WKH SUHVFKRRO H[SHULHQFHV RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZDV QRW FROOHFWHG +RZHYHU PDQ\ RI WKH ORZ 6(6 FKLOGUHQ LQ WKH VDPSOH PD\ KDYH SDUWLFLSDWHG LQ D TXDOLW\

PAGE 106

SUHVFKRRO SURJUDP 7KH HIIHFWV RI WKH HDUO\ LQWHUYHQWLRQ SURJUDP PD\ KDYH fZDVKHG RXWff WKH H[SHFWHG 6(6 HIIHFWV 7KH )RXU )DFWRU ,QGH[ RI 6RFLDO 6WDWXV +ROOLQJVKHDG f ZDV XVHG WR SURYLGH DQ LQGH[ RI 6(6 EDVHG RQ SDUHQW HGXFDWLRQ DQG RFFXSDWLRQ (VWLPDWHV RI 6(6 UDQJHG IURP WKH ORZHVW JURXSV LH XQVNLOOHG ODERUHUV DQG VHUYLFH ZRUNHUVf WR WKH KLJKHVW LH PDMRU EXVLQHVV RZQHUV DQG SURIHVVLRQDOVf OHYHOV ZLWKLQ DOO WKUHH IDPLOLHV 7KH RFFXSDWLRQ FRPSRQHQW LV EDVHG RQ MRE WLWOH DQG LV GLYLGHG LQWR D QLQHOHYHO VFDOH 7KLV VFDOH GRHV QRW UHSUHVHQW WKH DFWXDO LQFRPH HDUQHG E\ WKH SDUHQWV EXW HVWLPDWHV LW EDVHG RQ WKHLU RFFXSDWLRQ $ UHODWLRQVKLS PD\ KDYH EHHQ IRXQG LI WKH DFWXDO IDPLO\ LQFRPH KDG EHHQ LQFOXGHG UDWKHU WKDQ DQ HVWLPDWH )DPLO\ LQFRPH FRUUHODWHG PRUH VWURQJO\ ZLWK LQWHOOLJHQFH DPRQJ ILYH \HDUROGV WKDQ GLG PDWHUQDO HGXFDWLRQ HWKQLFLW\ DQG IHPDOH KHDGVKLS RI KRXVHKROG 'XQFDQ HW DO f )DFWRUV QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKLV VFDOH LH VDYLQJV LQKHULWDQFH LQYHVWPHQW LQFRPH D VHFRQG MRE RU H[FHVVLYH GHEWf FRXOG LQFUHDVH RU UHGXFH WKH IDPLO\f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

PAGE 107

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f SKRQHPLF VHJPHQWDWLRQ DQG SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ 3KRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ ZDV DVVHVVHG ZLWK WKH /$& DQG (OLVLRQ WHVWV $OWKRXJK WKHUH LV VFRUH YDULDELOLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO WHVWV WKH SKRQHPH PDQLSXODWLRQ VFRUHV REWDLQHG E\ FKLOGUHQ LQ WKH VDPSOH ZHUH ZHOO EHORZ WKH PD[LPXP VFRUH )XWXUH VWXGLHV VKRXOG LQFOXGH OHVV FRPSOH[ SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ WDVNV LH D WHVW RI UK\PLQJ DELOLW\ RU JURXSLQJ ZRUGV E\ VRXQGf 7KH PD[LPXP REWDLQDEOH VFRUH RQ WKH /$& LV 7KH DYHUDJH /$& VFRUH REWDLQHG E\ FKLOGUHQ LQ WKH VDPSOH ZDV ZLWK VFRUHV UDQJLQJ IURP WR 7KH PD[LPXP REWDLQDEOH VFRUH RQ WKH (OLVLRQ WDVN LV 7KH DYHUDJH (OLVLRQ VFRUH REWDLQHG E\ FKLOGUHQ LQ WKH VDPSOH ZDV HLJKW ZLWK VFRUHV UDQJLQJ IURP WKUHH WR $XGLWRU\

PAGE 108

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f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f &RQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG FRQVWUXFWLUUHOHYDQW YDULDQFH DUH WKH WZR PDMRU WKUHDWV WR FRQVWUXFW YDOLGLW\ 0HVVLFN f

PAGE 109

&RQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ UHIHUV WR WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK D WHVW IDLOV WR FDSWXUH LPSRUWDQW DVSHFWV RI WKH FRQVWUXFW 6WDQGDUGV IRU (GXFDWLRQDO DQG 3V\FKRORJLFDO 7HVWLQJ f &RQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RFFXUV ZKHQ D WHVW IDLOV WR LQFOXGH LPSRUWDQW GLPHQVLRQV RU IDFHWV RI D FRQVWUXFW UHVXOWLQJ LQ UHVWULFWHG PHDQLQJ RI WHVW VFRUHV EHFDXVH WKH WHVW GRHV QRW DGHTXDWHO\ VDPSOH FRQWHQW XWLOL]H VRPH SV\FKRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV RU HOLFLW EHKDYLRUV WKDW DUH HQFRPSDVVHG E\ WKH LQWHQGHG FRQVWUXFW 0HVVLFN 6WDQGDUGV IRU (GXFDWLRQDO DQG 3V\FKRORJLFDO 7HVWLQJ f 7KH XVH RI RQH WHVW WR PHDVXUH D FRQVWUXFW LV OLNHO\ WR SURYLGH DQ XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH FRQVWUXFW DV ZHOO DV HUURU YDULDQFH 7KXV FRQVWUXFW YDOLGLW\ ZLOO EH ORZHU LQ UHVHDUFK WKDW XVHV RQH WHVW UDWKHU WKDQ WZR RU PRUH WHVWV WR DVVHVV D FRQVWUXFW &RRN t &DPSEHOO f (DFK FRQVWUXFW IDPLO\ ZDV WHVWHG ZLWK D PLQLPXP RI WKUHH LQGLFHV RI WKH SURSRVHG FRQVWUXFW LH 3KRQHPLF $ZDUHQHVV DVVHVVPHQWV (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ DVVHVVPHQWV 5DSLG 1DPLQJ DVVHVVPHQWVf LQ RUGHU WR UHGXFH WKH WKUHDW RI FRQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ 7KLV DWWHPSW WR UHGXFH WKH WKUHDW RI FRQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ DSSHDUV WR KDYH LQFUHDVHG WKH WKUHDW RI FRQVWUXFWLUUHOHYDQW YDULDQFH &RQVWUXFWLUUHOHYDQW YDULDQFH UHIHUV WR WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK WHVW VFRUHV DUH DIIHFWHG E\ SURFHVVHV WKDW DUH H[WUDQHRXV WR WKH LQWHQGHG FRQVWUXFW 6WDQGDUGV IRU (GXFDWLRQDO DQG 3V\FKRORJLFDO 7HVWLQJ f ([DPSOHV LQFOXGH WHVWV WKDW SURYLGH H[FHVVLYHO\ EURDG DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH LQWHQGHG FRQVWUXFW DQG FRQWDLQ H[FHVV YDULDQFH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKHLU DVVHVVPHQW RI RWKHU FRQVWUXFWV 0HWKRG YDULDQFH HJ UHVSRQVH VHWV RU JXHVVLQJ SURSHQVLWLHVf DOVR DIIHFWV WKH UHVSRQVHV LQ D PDQQHU LUUHOHYDQW WR WKH FRQVWUXFW 0HVVLFN f

PAGE 110

:LWK UHJDUG WR WKH (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ IDPLO\ RXW RI K\SRWKHVHV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW 7KH :RUG$WWDFN WHVW ZDV LQFOXGHG DV D PHDVXUH RI (PHUJHQW 5HDGLQJ DV LW LV D V\QWKHVLV RI UHDGLQJ VNLOOV $ FKLOG PXVW DSSO\ SKRQHPLF DQG VWUXFWXUDO DQDO\VLV VNLOOV WR UHDG SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV $OO RI WKH ZRUGV SUHVHQWHG IROORZHG WKH SDWWHUQV RI UHJXODU (QJOLVK SURQXQFLDWLRQ DQG VSHOOLQJ /HIWZDUG DV\PPHWU\ RI WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQXP WHPSRUDOH GLG QRW SUHGLFW WKH DELOLW\ WR UHDG SKRQHWLFDOO\ UHJXODU QRQVHQVH ZRUGV DV PHDVXUHG E\ WKH :RUG$WWDFN WHVW ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR EHLQJ D WHVW RI QRYHO VLJKW ZRUG UHDGLQJ WKH :RUG $WWDFN WHVW DOVR LV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH D WHVW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV &DWHJRUL]LQJ WKH :RUG $WWDFN VXEWHVW DV D PHDVXUH RI HPHUJHQW UHDGLQJ DSSHDUV WR KDYH FRQWULEXWHG WR FRQVWUXFWLUUHOHYDQW YDULDQFH $OWKRXJK WKH :RUG $WWDFN WHVW FDQ EH FDWHJRUL]HG WKHRUHWLFDOO\ DV D PHDVXUH RI VLJKWZRUG UHDGLQJ VNLOO DQG UHGXFHV WKH WKUHDW RI FRQVWUXFW XQGHUUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ LW GLG QRW VDWLVI\ WKH HPSLULFDO FULWHULD HJ VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFHf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

PAGE 111

5()(5(1&(6 $GDPV 0f %HJLQQLQJ WR UHDG 7KLQNLQJ DQG OHDUQLQJ DERXW SULQW &DPEULGJH 0$ 0,7 3UHVV $QGHUVVRQ +: 6RPPHUIHOW 6RQQDQGHU t $KOVWHQ f 0DWHUQDO FKLOGUHDULQJ DWWLWXGHV ,4 DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV DV UHODWHG WR FRJQLWLYH DELOLWLHV RI ILYH\HDUROG FKLOGUHQ 3V\FKRORJLFDO 5HSRUWV $QQHWW 0 f /HIW ULJKW KDQG DQG EUDLQ 7KH ULJKW VKLIW WKHRU\ +LOOVGDOH 1/DZUHQFH (UOEDXP $VVRFLDWHV %DUURQ 5: f 3URWROLWHUDF\ OLWHUDF\ DQG WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV /HDUQLQJ DQG ,QGLYLGXDO 'LIIHUHQFHV f %HQWLQ 6 +DPPHU 5 t &DKDQ 6 f 7KH HIIHFWV RI DJLQJ DQG ILUVW JUDGH RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV +DVNLQV /DERUDWRU\ 6WDWXV 5HSRUW RQ 6SHHFK 5HVHDUFK 65 %HUQVWHLQ % f $ VRFLROLQJXLVWLF DSSURDFK WR VRFLDOL]DWLRQ :LWK VRPH UHIHUHQFH WR HGXFDELOLW\ ,Q ) :LOOLDPV (Gf /DQJXDJH DQG SRYHUW\ 3HUVSHFWLYHV RQ D WKHPH SS f &KLFDJR ,/ 0DUNKDP 3XEOLVKLQJ &RPSDQ\ %HVW &7 f 7KH HPHUJHQFH RI FHUHEUDO DV\PPHWULHV LQ HDUO\ KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW $ OLWHUDWXUH UHYLHZ DQG D QHXURHPEU\RORJLFDO PRGHO ,Q / 0ROLHVH t 6 6HJDORZLW] (GVf %UDLQ ODWHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ FKLOGUHQ SS f 1HZ
PAGE 112

%UDGOH\ / t %U\DQW 3( f &DWHJRUL]LQJ VRXQGV DQG OHDUQLQJ WR UHDGD FDXVDO FRQQHFWLRQ 1DWXUH f %URGDO 3 f 7KH FHQWUDO QHUYRXV V\VWHP 6WUXFWXUH DQG IXQFWLRQ 1HZ
PAGE 113

'HQFNOD 0% f &RORUQDPLQJ GHILFLWV LQ G\VOH[LF ER\Vf &RUWH[ 'HQFNOD 0% t 5XGHO 5* f 5DSLG fDXWRPDWL]HGf QDPLQJ 5$1f G\VOH[LD GLIIHUHQWLDWHG IURP RWKHU OHDUQLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV 1HXURSV\FKRORJLD 'HQHV 3% f 7KH VSHHFK FKDLQ 0XUUD\ +LOO 1%HOO 7HOHSKRQH /DERUDWRULHV 'LFNLQVRQ '. t 6QRZ &( f ,QWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV DPRQJ SUHUHDGLQJ DQG RUDO ODQJXDJH VNLOOV LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQHUV IURP WZR VRFLDO FODVVHV (DUO\ &KLOGKRRG 5HVDUFK 4XDUWHUO\ 'RROLQJ (& &KL -* t *LOHV )+ f 7HOHQFHSKDOLF GHYHORSPHQW &KDQJLQJ J\UDO SDWWHUQV ,Q ) + *LOHV $ /HYLWQ t ( & 'RROLQJ (GVf 7KH GHYHORSLQJ KXPDQ EUDLQ JURZWK DQG HSLGHPLRORJLF QHXURSDWKRORJ\ SS f %RVWRQ 0$ -RKQ :ULJKW 'XQFDQ %URRNV*XQQ .OHEDQRY 3 f (FRQRPLF GHSULYDWLRQ DQG HDUO\ FKLOGKRRG GHYHORSPHQW &KLOG 'HYHORSPHQW (OEUR & f :KHQ UHDGLQJ LV fUHDGQf RU VRPWKQ 'LVWLQFWQHVV RI SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI OH[LFDO LWHPV LQ QRUPDO DQG GLVDEOHG UHDGHUV 6FDQGLQDYLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ (OEUR & %RUVWURP t 3HWHUVHQ '. f 3UHGLFWLQJ G\VOH[LD IURP NLQGHUJDUWHQ 7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI GLVWLQFWQHVV RI SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI OH[LFDO LWHPV 5HDGLQJ 5HVHDUFK 4XDUWHUO\ f (OEUR & 1LHOVHQ t 3HWHUVHQ f '\VOH[LD LQ DGXOWV (YLGHQFH IRU GHILFLWV LQ QRQZRUG UHDGLQJ DQG LQ WKH SKRQRORJLFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI OH[LFDO LWHPV $QQDOV RI '\VOH[LD )HOWRQ 5+ 1D\ORU &( :RRG ) % f 1HXURSV\FKRORJLFDO SURILOH RI DGXOW G\VOH[LFV %UDLQ DQG /DQJXDJH )HOWRQ 5+ t 3HSSHU 33 f (DUO\ LGHQWLILFDWLRQ DQG LQWHUYHQWLRQ RI SKRQRORJLFDO GHILFLWV LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQ DQG HDUO\ HOHPHQWDU\ FKLOGUHQ DW ULVN IRU UHDGLQJ GLVDELOLW\ 6FKRRO 3V\FKRORJ\ 5HYLHZ f )RRUPDQ %5 f 5HVHDUFK RQ WKH fJUHDW GHEDWHf &RGHRULHQWHG YHUVXV ZKROH ODQJXDJH DSSURDFKHV WR UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ 6FKRRO 3V\FKRORJ\ 5HYLHZ f

PAGE 114

)RXQGDV $/ /HRQDUG &0 *LOPRUH 5 )HQQHOO ( +HLOPDQ .0 f 3ODQXP WHPSRUDOH DV\PPHWU\ DQG ODQJXDJH GRPLQDQFH 1HXURSV\FKRORJLFD f )RZOHU $( f +RZ HDUO\ SKRQRORJLFDO GHYHORSPHQW VHW WKH VWDJH IRU SKRQHPH DZDUHQHVV ,Q 6 $ %UDG\ t 3 6KDQNZHLOHU (GVf 3KRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVHV LQ OLWHUDF\ SS f +LOOVGDOH 1(UOEDXP )ULHGHULFL $' 0H\HU 0 YRQ &UDPRQ '< f $XGLWRU\ ODQJXDJH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ $Q HYHQWUHODWHG I05, VWXG\ RQ WKH SURFHVVLQJ RI V\QWDFWLF DQG OH[LFDO LQIRUPDWLRQ %UDLQ DQG /DQJXDJH *HVFKZLQG 1 t *DODEXUGD $ f &HUHEUDO ODWHUDOL]DWLRQ ELRORJLFDO PHFKDQLVPV DVVRFLDWLRQV DQG SDWKRORJ\ $ K\SRWKHVLV DQG D SURJUDP IRU UHVHDUFK $UFKLYHV RI 1HXURORJ\ *HVFKZLQG 1 t /HYLWVN\ : f +XPDQ EUDLQ /HIWULJKW DV\PPHWULHV LQ WHPSRUDO VSHHFK UHJLRQ 6FLHQFH *LHGG -1 f 1RUPDO GHYHORSPHQW &KLOG DQG $GROHVFHQW 3V\FKLDWULF &OLQLFV RI 1RUWK $PHULFD f *LHGG -1 9DLWX]LV $& +DPEXUJHU 6' /DQJH 1 5DMDSDNVH -& .D\VHQ 9DXVV <& t 5DSRSRUW -/ f 4XDQWLWDWLYH 05, RI WKH WHPSRUDO OREH DP\JGDOD DQG KLSSRFDPSXV LQ QRUPDO KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW $JHV \HDUV 7KH -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH 1HXURORJ\ +DLQHV '( t 0LKDLORII *$ f 7KH WHOHQFHSKDORQ ,Q ( +DLQHV (Gf )XQGDPHQWDO 1HXURVFLHQFH SS f 1HZ
PAGE 115

+HVV 5' t 6KLSPDQ 9& f (DUO\ H[SHULHQFH DQG WKH VRFLDOL]DWLRQ RI FRJQLWLYH PRGHV LQ FKLOGUHQ &KLOG 'HYHORSPHQW f +ROOLQJVKHDG $% f )RXU IDFWRU LQGH[ RI VRFLDO VWDWXV
PAGE 116

,OO ) t 6WDDE ( 9 f $QRPDORXV FHUHEUDO VWUXFWXUH LQ G\VOH[LD UHYHDOHG ZLWK PDJQHWLF UHVRQDQFH LPDJLQJ $UFKLYHV RI 1HXURORJ\ /LEHUPDQ < f 6HJPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH VSRNHQ ZRUG DQG UHDGLQJ DFTXLVLWLRQV %XOOHWLQ RI WKH 2UWRQ 6RFLHW\ /RPEDUGLQR /f 0RUULV 0HUFDGR / 'HILOOLSR ) 6DULVN\ & t 0RQWJRPHU\ $ f 7KH HDUO\ UHDGLQJ VFUHHQLQJ LQVWUXPHQW $ PHWKRG IRU LGHQWLI\LQJ NLQGHUJDUWHQHUV DW ULVN IRU OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 'LVRUGHUV /XQGEHUJ f 3KRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV FDQ EH GHYHORSHG ZLWKRXW UHDGLQJ LQVWUXFWLRQ ,Q 6 $ %UDG\ t 3 6KDQNZHLOHU (GVf 3KRQRORJLFDO 3URFHVVHV LQ /LWHUDF\ $ 7ULEXWH WR ,VDEHOOH < /LEHUPDQ SS f 1HZ -HUVH\ /DZUHQFH (UOEDXP /XQGEHUJ f 5HDGLQJ GLIILFXOWLHV FDQ EH SUHGLFWHG DQG SUHYHQWHG $ 6FDQGLQDYLDQ SHUVSHFWLYH RQ SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG UHDGLQJ ,Q & +XOPH t 0 6QRZOLQJ (GVf 5HDGLQJ 'HYHORSPHQW DQG '\VOH[LD SS f /RQGRQ :KXUU /XQGEHUJ 2ORIVVRQ $ t :DOO 6 f 5HDGLQJ DQG VSHOOLQJ VNLOOV LQ NLQGHUJDUWHQ 6FDQGLQDYLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ 0DF'RQDOG *: t &RUQZDOO $ f 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG UHDGLQJ DQG VSHOOLQJ DFKLHYHPHQW HOHYHQ \HDUV ODWHU -RXUQDO RI /HDUQLQJ 'LVDELOLWLHV f 0DFOHDQ 0 %U\DQW 3 t %UDGOH\ / f 5K\PHV QXUVHU\ UK\PHV DQG UHDGLQJ LQ HDUO\ FKLOGKRRG 0HUULOO3DOPHU 4XDUWHUO\ f 0F*XLQQHVV 0F*XLQQHVV & t 'RQRKXH f 3KRQRORJLFDO WUDLQLQJ DQG WKH DOSKDEHW SULQFLSOH (YLGHQFH IRU UHFLSURFDO FDXVDOLW\ 5HDGLQJ 5HVHDUFK 4XDUWHUO\ 0HVVLFN 6 f 9DOLGLW\ RI SV\FKRORJLFDO DVVHVVPHQW 9DOLGDWLRQ RI LQIHUHQFHV IURP SHUVRQVf UHVSRQVHV DQG SHUIRUPDQFHV DV VFLHQWLILF LQTXLU\ LQWR VFRUH PHDQLQJ $PHULFDQ 3V\FKRORJLVW f 0ROLHVH 9'L/DOOD /) t %XQFH '$ f 3UHGLFWLRQ RI WKH LQWHOOLJHQFH VFRUHV RI WR \HDUROG FKLOGUHQ E\ KRPH HQYLURQPHQW VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV DQG ELRPHGLFDO ULVNV 0HUULOO3DOPHU 4XDUWHUO\ f 0RU£LV f &RQVWUDLQWV RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV ,Q 6 $ %UDG\ t 3 6KDQNZHLOHU (GVf 3KRQRORJLFDO 3URFHVVLQJ LQ /LWHUDF\ $ 7ULEXWH WR ,VDEHOOH < /LEHUPDQ SS f 1/DZUHQFH (UOEDXP

PAGE 117

0RU£LV &DU\ / $OHJUD t %HUWHOVHQ 3 f 'RHV DZDUHQHVV RI VSHHFK DV D VHTXHQFH RI SKRQHV DULVH VSRQWDQHRXVO\" &RJQLWLRQ 1DVK 0 f )HUWLOH 0LQGV 7LPH 1MLRNLNWMLHQ & GH 6RQQHYLOOH / t 9DDO f &DOORVDO VL]H LQ FKLOGUHQ ZLWK OHDUQLQJ GLVDELOLWLHV %HKDYLRXUDO %UDLQ 5HVHDUFK 2OGILHOG 2' f 7KH DVVHVVPHQW DQG DQDO\VLV RI KDQGHGQHVV 7KH (GLQEXUJK ,QYHQWRU\ 1HXURSVYFKRORJLFD 2OLP (* +HVV 5' t 6KLSPDQ 9& f 5ROH RI PRWKHUVf ODQJXDJH VW\OHV LQ PHGLDWLQJ WKHLU SUHVFKRRO FKLOGUHQfV FRJQLWLYH GHYHORSPHQW 6FKRRO 5HYLHZ f 3DOLQFVDU $6 t 3HUU\ 1( f 'HYHORSPHQWDO FRJQLWLYH DQG VRFLRFXOWXUDO SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ DVVHVVLQJ DQG LQVWUXFWLQJ UHDGLQJ 6FKRRO 3V\FKRORJ\ 5HYLHZ f 3HUIHWWL &$ %HFN %HOO /& t +XJKHV & f 3KRQHPLF NQRZOHGJH DQG OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG DUH UHFLSURFDO $ ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXG\ RI ILUVW JUDGH FKLOGUHQ 0HUULOO 3DOPHU 4XDUWHUO\ f 3ODQWH (f 6ZLVKHU / 9DQFH 5 t 5DSFVDN 6 f 05, ILQGLQJV LQ ER\V ZLWK VSHFLILF ODQJXDJH LPSDLUPHQW %UDLQ DQG /DQJXDJH 3ULHV 6 -DQFNH / 6FKPLW]+LOOHEUHFKW 6WHLQPHW] + f &KLOG DJH DQG SODQXP WHPSRUDOH DV\PPHWU\ %UDLQ DQG &RJQLWLRQ 5DWXVQLN / t .RHQLJVNQHFKW 5 $ f ,QIOXHQFH RI FHUWDLQ FOLQLFDO YDULDEOHV RQ EODFN SUHVFKRROHUVf QRQVWDQGDUG SKRQRORJLFDO DQG JUDPPDWLFDO SHUIRUPDQFH -RXUQDO RI &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 'LVRUGHUV 5D] 6 t %U\DQW 3 f 6RFLDO EDFNJURXQG SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG FKLOGUHQfV UHDGLQJ %ULWLVK -RXUQDO RI 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 5HLVV $/ $EUDPV 07 6LQJHU +6 5RVV -/ t 'HQFNOD 0% f %UDLQ GHYHORSPHQW JHQGHU DQG ,4 LQ FKLOGUHQ $ YROXPHWULF VWXG\ %UDLQ 5RVHQ]ZHLJ 0 5 /HLPDQ $/ t %UHHGORYH 6 0 f %LRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ SS f 6XQGHUODQG 0$ 6LQDXU $VVRFLDWHV

PAGE 118

5RVHQ]ZHLJ 0 5 .UHFK %HQQHWW ( / t 'LDPRQG 0 f (IIHFWV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO FRPSOH[LW\ DQG WUDLQLQJ RQ EUDLQ FKHPLVWU\ DQG DQDWRP\ $ UHSOLFDWLRQ DQG H[WHQVLRQ -RXUQDO RI &RPSDUDWLYH DQG 3K\VLRORJLFDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 6DORQHQ 3 /HSOD t 1LHPL 3 f 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI ILUVW JUDGHUVf UHDGLQJ VNLOO DV D IXQFWLRQ RI SUHVFKRRO PRWLYDWLRQDO RULHQWDWLRQ DQG SKRQHPLF DZDUHQHVV (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ RI (GXFDWLRQ f 6DQWURFN -RKQ : f /LIHVSDQ GHYHORSPHQWf§6L[WK (GLWLRQ &KLFDJR ,/ %URZQ t %HQFKPDUN 6DWWOHU f $VVHVVPHQW RI FKLOGUHQ XO HGf 6DQ 'LHJR &$ -HURPH 0 6DWWOHU3XEOLVKHU ,QF 6DW] 3 6RSHU +9 t 2UVLQL '/ f +XPDQ KDQG SUHIHUHQFH 7KUHH QRQGH[WUDO VXEW\SHV ,Q / 0ROLHVH t 6 6HJDORZLW] (GVf %UDLQ ODWHUDOL]DWLRQ LQ FKLOGUHQ SS f 1HZ
PAGE 119

6WDQRYLFK ( f 7KH ULJKW DQG ZURQJ SODFHV WR ORRN IRU WKH FRJQLWLYH ORFXV RI UHDGLQJ GLVDELOLW\ $QQDOV RI '\VOH[LD 7RUJHVHQ f 3KRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV EDWWHU\ 8QSXEOLVKHG PDQXVFULSW )ORULGD 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ DW 7DOODKDVVHH 7RUJHVHQ :DJQHU 5 t 5DVKRWWH & $ f /RQJLWXGLQDO VWXGLHV RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ DQG UHDGLQJ -RXUQDO RI /HDUQLQJ 'LVDELOLWLHV f :DJQHU 5 t 0F%ULGH&KDQJ & f 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI UHDGLQJUHODWHG SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ DELOLWLHV ,Q 5RVV 9DVWD (Gf $QQDOV RI &KLOG 'HYHORSPHQW $ UHVHDUFK DQQXDO f /RQGRQ DQG %ULVWRO 3$ -HVVLFD .LQJVOH\ 3XEOLVKHUV :DJQHU 5 t 7RUJHVHQ f 7KH QDWXUH RI SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ DQG LWV FDXVDO UROH LQ WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI UHDGLQJ VNLOOV 3V\FKRORJLFDO %XOOHWLQ f :DJQHU 5 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH & $ f &RPSUHKHQVLYH 7HVW RI 3KRQRORJLFDO 3URFHVVLQJ $XVWLQ 7; 3UR(G :DJQHU 5 7RUJHVHQ t 5DVKRWWH & $ f 'HYHORSPHQW RI UHDGLQJUHODWHG SKRQRORJLFDO SURFHVVLQJ DELOLWLHV QHZ HYLGHQFH RI ELGLUHFWLRQDO FDXVDOLW\ IURP D ODWHQW YDULDEOH ORQJLWXGLQDO VWXG\ 'HYHORSPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ :DOODFK / :DOODFK 0 $ 'R]LHU 0* t .DSODQ 1 ( f 3RRU FKLOGUHQ OHDUQLQJ WR UHDG GR QRW KDYH WURXEOH ZLWK DXGLWRU\ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ EXW GR KDYH WURXEOH ZLWK SKRQHPH UHFRJQLWLRQ -RXUQDO RI (GXFDWLRQDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f :LHVHO 7 1 t +XEHL + f ([WHQW RI UHFRYHU\ IURP WKH HIIHFWV RI YLVXDO GHSULYDWLRQ LQ NLWWHQV -RXUQDO RI 1HXURSK\VLRORJ\ f :ROIH 0 f 1DPLQJ VSHHG DQG UHDGLQJ 7KH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH FRJQLWLYH QHXURVFLHQFHV 5HDGLQJ 5HVHDUFK 4XDUWHUO\ f :ROIH 0 f $ SURYLVLRQDO LQWHJUDWLYH DFFRXQW RI SKRQRORJLFDO DQG QDPLQJVSHHG GHILFLWV LQ G\VOH[LD ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU GLDJQRVLV DQG LQWHUYHQWLRQ ,Q % $ %ODFKPDQ (Gf )RXQGDWLRQV RI UHDGLQJ DFTXLVLWLRQ DQG G\VOH[LD ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU HDUO\ LQWHUYHQWLRQ SS f 0DKZDK 1/DZUHQFH (UOEDXP $VVRFLDWHV :RRG & t 7HUUHOO & f 3UHVFKRRO SKRQRORJLFDO DZDUHQHVV DQG VXEVHTXHQW OLWHUDF\ GHYHORSPHQW (GXFDWLRQDO 3V\FKRORJ\ f :RRGFRFN 5 t -RKQVRQ 5% f :RRGFRFN-RKQVRQ 3V\FKRHGXFDWLRQDO %DWWHU\5HYLVHG $OOHQ 7; '/0

PAGE 120

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fV WKHVLV VWXGLHG WKH VXSSRUW IDFWRUV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR PRWKHUVf FRPPLWPHQW WR DQ LQWHUYHQWLRQ SURJUDP LQ WKH *D]D 6WULS GXULQJ WKH ,QWLIDGD 6KDU\O UHFHLYHG KHU 0$( IURP WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD LQ $XJXVW DQG EHFDPH D GRFWRUDO FDQGLGDWH LQ 1RYHPEHU RI 6KH FRPSOHWHG KHU SUHGRFWRUDO LQWHUQVKLS DW WKH )ORULGD 6WDWH 8QLYHUVLW\ 0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\ &HQWHU LQ -XO\ RI 6KDU\O OLYHV LQ $WODQWD *HRUJLD DQG LV HPSOR\HG E\ WKH &OD\WRQ &RXQW\ 6FKRRO %RDUG DV D VFKRRO SV\FKRORJLVW

PAGE 121

, FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ 7KRPDV 2DNODQG &KDLU 3URIHVVRU RI (GXFDWLRQDO 3V\FKRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ &KULVWLDQD 0 /HRQDUG 3URIHVVRU RI 1HXURVFLHQFH FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ 7LQD 0 6PLWK%RQDKXH $VVLVWDQW 3URIHVVRU RI (GXFDWLRQDO 3V\FKRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ A $QQH ( 6HUDSKLQH $VVLVWDQW 3URIHVVRU RI (GXFDWLRQDO 3V\FKRORJ\ 7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ ZDV VXEPLWWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH )DFXOW\ RI WKH &ROOHJH RI (GXFDWLRQ DQG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO DQG ZDV DFFHSWHG DV SDUWLDO IXOILOOPHQW RI WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ $XJXVW 'HDU&&ROOHJH RI (GXFDWLRQA 'HDQ *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO

PAGE 122

XM P