Wheat facts

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Title:
Wheat facts
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United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
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U.S.Dept. of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics ( Washington, D.C )
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aleph - 028422253
oclc - 84581665
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H4_1 .. .......OAINthVY LL z, FL lOtIlDA

ljq4MI-TED STATES DEPARTMENT OF flGRICULTURE
:- ... BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIeS


, A


-M J O oon .fcm-'s
HE oM CIS


WASHINGTON, D.C.
JuLY. 1930


PART II SUPPLEMENTARY CHARTS


WHEAT PRICES
AFTER THE CIVILW6R


280

220

160

190


40 ==
1915


1925


NEW YORK PRICE









I I .

t


I


*1.4


"* r..;


51
~~~0


.1~


.4 4


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p...
r j
*h
ii


'I


U-..


i .v ..





































FIGURE I IN THE PAST TEN YEARS THE COURSE OF WHEAT PRICES HAS BEEN DOWNWARD AS
IT WAS FOLLOWING THE CIVIL WAR. IN ROTH CASES THE DEC' INE IN WHEAT PRICES WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECLINE IN THE GENERAL PRICE LEVEL, A DEFLATION FROM THE WAR-TIME PRICES. IN RE-
CENT YEARS THE COMBINE AND THE TRACTOR HAVE BECOME IMPORTANT FACTORS IN EXPANDING WHEAT
PRODUCTION, NOT ONLY IN THE UNITED STATES BUT IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD, AS THE REAPER
AND BINDER CONTRIBUTED TO EXPANSION AND PRODUCTION AFTER THE CIVIL WAR. THE DEVELOPMENT
OF NEW WHEAT-GROWING AREAS IN CANADA. ARGENTINA. AUSTRALIA AND THE GREAT PLAINS OF THE
UNITED STATES CORRESPONDS TO THE HOMESTEAD EXPANSION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AFTER
THE CIVIL WAR












WHEAT

Prices Received by Producers and Wholesale Prices

for All Commodities, July,1920 to Date


JULY JAN. JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN. JULY JAN JULY JAN. JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY
1920-21 21-22 22-23 23-24 24-25 25-26 26-27 27-28 28-29 29-30 30-31 31-32
FIGURE 2 IN THE PAST TEN MONThS WHEAT PRICES HAVE FALLEN FASTER THAN THE GEN-
ERAL PRICE LEVEL AS THEY DID IN THE DEPRESSION OF 1920. ANY MARKED DECLINE IN THE
GENERAL PRICE LEVEL IS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECLINE IN WHEAT PRICES UNLESS
THE SUPPLY OF WHEAT BECOMES QUITE SHORT IN THE FACE OF A GENERAL PRICE DEPRESSION.
IN 1924 A SHORT WORLD CROP FOLLOWED BY A SHORT CROP IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1925 RE-
SULTED IN TWO SEASONS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PRICES FOR WHEAT, BUT THESE TWO SEASONS HAVE
BEEN FOLLOWED BY SUCCESSIVELY LARGER WORLD CROPS AND INCREASING CARRY-OVERS uNTIL 1929.
LARGE WHEAT STOCKS AND THE DOLCLINE IN THE GENERAL PRICE LEVEL.MORE THAN OFFSET THE IN-
FLUENCE OF THE WORLD CROP REDUCTION IN Iq29


- 2 -


.......... .. ...... .... .
rmm!' _71rl










Wheat: World Supplies and Price


BUSHELS
MILLIONS

4,200


4,000


3,800


3,600


3,400 1
1923


1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929
*AV. BRITISH PARCELS REPRESENTING WORLD MARKET PRICES


CENTS
PER
BUSHEL*
180


160


140


120


1 00
1930


FIGURE 3 WORLD SUPPLIES LARGELY DETERMINE THE PRICE OF WHEAT IN WORLD MARKETS
WHEN THE GENERAL PRICE LEVEL REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. THE LARGE SUPPLY IN 1925 BROUGHT
LOW PRICES. THE SMALL WORLD CROP IN 1924 RESULTED IN MUCH HIGHER PRICES. AFTER 1924,
SUPPLIES INCREASED, REACHING THE PEAK IN 1928 AND AGAIN PRICES MOVED DOWNWARD TO A LOW
LEVEL. OWING TO THE DEPRESSION AND FALLING GENERAL PRICE LEVEL, THE SHORTER CROP OF
1929 SOLD AT BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRICES THAN THE CROP OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR


-3-


67' ......


..... ...... .









Wheat: World Production Excluding China and World

Excluding Russia and China, 1890 to Date
MILLIONS __________
OF -i i i i i i i i i --- 1 I I I i i i i i- ~ ~ --i i i ~I- r ]I I n I
BUSHELS --Excluding Russia and China
Excluding China
4,000




3,00 Trend

2.000 ;-----

1,000


1935


FIGURE 4 THIRTY YEARS AGO A CERTAIN SCIENTIST PREDICTED THAT THE WORLD WOULD BE
SHORT OF WHEAT IN 1931, BUT PRODUCTION HAS INCREASED NEARLY 60 PER CENT IN THESE 30
YEARS. FROM 1890 TO 1914 THE AVERAGE INCREASE IN WOR'LDO PRODUCTION, EXCLUDING CHINA,
WAS 74,000,000J BUSHELS YEARLY. EXCLUDING BOTH RUSSIA AND CHINA THE AVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 1890 TO 1914 WAS 48,000,000 ANNUALLY AND FROM 1920 TO 1929 72,000,000 BUSHELS PER
YEAR. THE INCREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PAST 10 YEARS WAS LARGELY DUE TO RE-
COVERY OF PRODUCTION IN EUROPE INCIDENT TO THE POST-WAR RECONSTRUCTION, BUT IN THE
PAST FIVE YEARS IT HAS BEEN LARGELY DUE TO RAPID INCREASES IN THE PRODI'-CTION CF EXPORT-
ING COUNTRIES
-4-







Wheat Including Flour in Terms of Wheat: Russian

SProduction and Exports. 1890 to Date
MILLIONS___________ _____
OF
BUSHELS ________________ ________________
0 Production
900---1\------
--- Exports A
800
700
600
500 -j
400


200 -,-

do I
100 -.f--------- ~ ~ ---

I I I lo
9' 90 9 9 697 9 899 0I 02 03 016 06 07 10 09 ii '2 Ji ',1 16 17819 2' 22 '23 24 262 91 2 '32 '33 36
9'9 3 & 9 ,. 9., 19 1 ,1 'a, i,92 _"" --2' fb-
1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935
FIGURE 5 BEFORE THE WORLD WAR RUSSIA WAS NOT ONLY ONE OF THE LARGEST WHEAT
PRODUCERS IN THE WORLD BuT WAS OFTEN THE LARGEST EXPORTER. THE FIVE YEARS PRECEDING
THE WAR RUSSIAN NET EXPORTS AVERAGEDI64,000,000 BUSHELS COMPARED WITH 105,000,000
EXPORTED FROM THE UNITED STATES. IF THE RUSSIAN PRE-WAR AND POST-WAR STATISTICS ARE
COMPARABLE, PRODUCTION HAS RECOVERED TO ABOUT THE PRE-WAR LEVEL. BUT HER POPULATION
HAS INCREASED AND THE RUSSIAN PEASANTS ARE EATING THEIR WHEAT. THE RUSSIAN GOVERN-
MENT. HOWEVER, IS MAKING ESPECIAL EFFORTS TO PRODUCE MORE WHEAT FOR EXPORT
-5 -








MILLIONS__ __
OF
BUSHELS
United States
1.000 --Cnd.-- ---
Canada. Argentin a. o
and A ustralia
800


600 I'
aIV
60 l ,"16A r "

400 ----


200 #-_---


*II I1 1 I M S 0 1 01 01 01 07 01 l C l 1 1 I l | is a) I I s I i IS 1 3 I I |C I 1
1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935
FIGURE 6 FOR THE PAST FORTY YEARS WHEAT PRODUCTION IN ARGENTINA, CANADA, AND
AUSTRALIA HAS INCREASED MLCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES. IN
THE FIVE YEARS 1890 TO 1894 THESE COUNTRIES TOGETHER PROD'JCED LESS THAN ONE-THIRD AS
MUCH AS THE UNITED STATE, WHILE IN THE FIVE YEARS 1925 TO 1929 THEIR CROP AMOUNTED
TO 95 PER CENT OF THAT OF THE UNITED STATES. IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THE EXPORTS
FROM THESE COUNTRIES (CANADA, ARGENTIrNA, AND AUSTRALIA) HAVE AVERAGED 557 MILLION
BUSHELS-, WHILE THE AVERAGE EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES WERE ONLY 192 MILLION
BUSHELS


-6 -










Wheat: Acreage. Production, and Yield per Acre

in the United States, 1909 to Date
MILLIONS
OFACRES ACREAGE
75

70 AR____

65-
60

55

so
45
40
BUSHELS














170 -L-___[__j___ j_L__3_L_ _,___L__ _ll I-_

HIGHR YILDS.THE ELECIONLAD ADATAIO OFVAIEIE
17

16

15
14

13

12
II

I0
MILLIONS
OF BUSHELS PRODUCTION
1.100

1,000

900
Boo
700 o

6o0

500

400
,9o91910,, 1915 1 8 '91920 7 271925 e 21 2 19303d "1935
i929 PhrCL,A,$/ARy DATA
FIGURE 7 INCREASED PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES
HAS BEEN DUE NOT ONLY TO EXPANSION OF ACREAGE BUT ALSO TO
HIGHER YIELDS. THE SELECTION AND ADAPTATION OF VARIETIES
TO CLIMATIC CONDITIONS AND IMPROVEMENT IN CULTIVATION HAVE
RESULTED IN AN UPWARD TREND IN YIELDS. THE AVERAGE AREA
HARVESTED IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS IS 22 PER CENT GREATER
THAN THE AREA ARRESTEDD IN THE PERIOD 1895-1899. THE IN-
CREASE OF THE PAST FEW YEARS HAS BEEN PRINCIPALLY IN THE
NEWER REGIONS WHERE ACREAGE DID NOT DECLINE FOLLOWING THE
WAR. THE YEAR-TO-YEAR VARIATIONS IN PRODUCTION ARE LARGE-
LY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN YIELD AND IN THE ACREAGE ABAN-
DONED, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IN PRODUCTION IS MOSTLY DE-
PENDENT UPON ACREAGE
7 -


..... .... ...







States East of the Mississippi River: Wheat Acreage (Winter Wheat
Seeded PrecedinS Fall and Spring Wheat) 1909 to Date


MILLIONS
OF ACRES


18


16


14,


12


10


%m 1 1 11 '12 1J 1' 15 17 19 21 '22 '23 2' *26 127 28 29 31 232 '33 23'
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935
FIGURE 8 THE WHEAT ACREAGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN REDUCED RAPIDLY
SINCE THE WAR. FROM THE HIGH POINT OF 18,000,000 AORES IN 1919 THE AREA HAS BEEN RE-
DUCED TO ABOUT 11,000.000 WHICH IS EVEN LOWER THAN T7E PRE-WAR ACREAGE. CONDITIONS
GENERALLY SEEM FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUING A REDUCTION IN ACREAGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI,
BUT IT IS HARDLY LIKELY THAT REDUCTION FROM THE PRESENT LEVEL WILL PROCEED AS RAPIDLY
AS IT DID FROM THE HIGH LEVEL OF 1919 TO THE LEVEL OF 1925


-8-


I 1 II I I I I I I I I III I I IT I1 h fl F~




N




ur-F

_____%











Minnesota: Wheat Acreage (Winter Wheat Seeded

Preceding Fall and Spring Wheat) 1909 to Date
ACRES _________ ________________________
MILLIONS I I I I I I


1935


FIGURE 9 FEED CROPS AND PASTURES FOR DAIRY COWS HAVE BEEN DISPLACING WHEAT
ACREAGE IN MINNESOTA. IN FACT, THE RETURN TO WAR-TIME HIGH PRICES PRACTICALLY HAD
NO EFFECT UPON THE ACREAGE IN THAT STATE EXCEPT THAT IT MAY HAVE RETARDED THE DE-
CLINE UNTIL AFTER THE WAR. IN THE PAST TEN YEARS THE ACREAGE OF THIS STATE HAS BEEN
REDUCED 50 PER CENT. SIMILAR CHANGES HAVE BEEN TAKING PLACE IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS, BUT NOT IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE DAKOTAS OR MONTANA
9 -


1910"' "' '" 1915"' "18 19202 = "1925" 1930'











Montana: Wheat Acreage (Winter Wheat Seeded

Preceding Fall and Spring Wheat) 1909 to Date


MILLIONS
OFACRES


.91 *l? *l5 l b IS 7 ii "1 9 22 2 as bIt is 92 1930
1910 1915 1920 1925 193d' '


FIGURE 10 WHEAT ACREAGE IN MONTANA HAS EXPANDED RAPIDLY SINCE 1921. IN RECENT
YEARS THAT EXPANSION HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE FACE OF FALLING PRICES. EXPANSION IN MON-
TANA IS IN LINE WITH THE EXPANSION THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN WINTER
WHEAT PRODUCING REGION AND IN THE CANADIAN PROVINCE OF ALBERTA TO THE NORTH. MONTANA
PRODUCERS EXPRESSED THIS SPRING INTENTIONS TO REDUCE ACREAGE ABOUT 6 PER CENT


- 10 -


1935








Southwest Winter Wheat States (Nebr. Kans., Colo.,Texas and Okla.): Wheat

Acreage (Winter Wheat Seeded Preceding Fall and Spring Wheat) and

Prices of No. 2 Hard Winter at Kansas City, 1909 to date


MILLIONS
OF
ACRES



25



20



15



I0


1910


1915 1920 1925 1930


CENTS
PER
BUSHEL



200



150



100



__ 50
1935


FIGURE II THE SOUTHWESTERN HARD WINTER WHEAT STATES HAVE INCREASED SEEDINGS BY
ABOUT 5 MILLION ACRES IN THE PAST SIX YEARS. A LARGE PART OF THIS INCREASE HAS BEEN
MADE IN THE FACE OF FALLING PRICES. THE EXPANSION FROM 1910 TO 1919 WAS LARGELY DUE
TO RISING PRICES. THE DEPRESSION OF 1920-21 LED TO SOME REDUCTION IN ACREAGE. THE
HIGHER PRICES OF 1924-25 STARTED THE EXPANSION AND THE COMBINE AND THE TRACTOR TENDED
TO KEEP IT GOING WHILE PRICES FELL


- II -











Preceding Fall and Spring Wheat) 1909 to Date


MILLIONS
OF
ACRES




4







3







2
0,


I I I I I I I I ~1 ~


9 12 I i I" 1 5 6 I" '
1910 1915


1920


I I I I


I I I


?2 2.3 A


t 1-


I I


I I


19256
1925


1930 1935


FIGURE 12 NEBRASKA ACREAGE RESPONSE TC THE 1924-25 PRICES AND MACHINERY KEPT
IT GOING. FROM THE LOW POINT OF 1924, ABOUT A MILLION AND A HALF ACRES WERE ADDED
IN FOUR YEARS. IS THE LOWER ACREAGE OF THE PAST TWO YEARS AN INDICATION THAT THE UP-
WARD TREND HAS COME TO AN END? THE INCREASE IN SEEDINGS LAST FALL OVER THOSE OF THE
PREVIOUS SEASON INDICATES SOME DOUBT ABOUT IT


- 12 -


Trend


| | | I | | I | | I | T | |


I L & II I











Colorado: WheatAcreage (Winter Wheat Seeded
Preceding Fall and Spring Wheat) 1909 to Date
MILUONS______ ___________
OFACRES
ACRES


2.0


1.5


1.0


.5



0


913 91 *U i I 21 Z IS a9' 27 2 9 31 '*3
1915 1920 1925 1930 1935


1909


FIGURE .13 APPARENTLY WAR DEMANDS CONTRIBUTED TO THE MARKED INCREASE IN ACREAGE
IN COLORADO. FINDING IT POSSIBLE, THE AREA WAS HELD AT A HIGH LEVEL. HERE WE FIND
ANl INCREASE IN THE PAST SIX YEARS SIMILAR TO INCREASES IN THE OTHER IMPORTANT HARD
WINTER WHEAT PRODUCING STATES. THE INCREASE OF ABOUT HALF A MILLION ACRE IS NOT
LARGE IN ITSELF, BUT RELATIVELY IT IS A BIG INCREASE OF ABOUT 33 PER CENT IN SIX YEARS


- 13 -









Kansas: Wheat Acreage (Winter Wheat Seeded

Preceding Fall and Spring Wheat) 1909 to Date
MILUONS_________ _________
OF
ACRES


ID 11 If i w *I4 1 i *13 ?ii *lf 5 59 _Re 51 ii *Iai3 6 Ii II j
1909 1915 "1920 1925" '1930 1935
FIGURE 14 IN KANSAS THERE HAS BEEN AN ALMOST CONTINUOUS UPWARD TREND IN WHEAT
ACREAGE SINCE 1911. THE DEPRESSION OF 1920-21 MADE ONLY A SMALL DENT IN THE KANSAS
ACREAGE. Low PRICES IN 1923, TOGETHER WITH UNFAVORABLE PLANTING CONDITIONS, MADE A
BIGGER DENT BUT IN RECENT YEARS EXPANSION IN ACREAE HAS CONTINUED THE PRE-WAR TREND.
To THE REDUCED ACREAGE OF 1924 ABOUT 2-1/2 MILLION ACRES, OR 25 PER CENT, HAVE BEEN
ADDED IN SIX YEARS. THIS ADDITION TO THE 1924 ACREAGE IS MORE THAN A THIRD OF THE
PRE-WAR AVERAGE AREA


- 14 -









MILLIONS
OF ACRES


4



3


2


I


0 -


Preceding Fall) 1909 to Date


'11 06 1 19 20 *1 22 31 1J 3 5
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935


FIGURE 15 THE ACREAGE OF WHEAT IN OKLAHOMA HAS INCREASED ABOUT ONE FOURTH FROM
1924 TO 1928. THE WAR-TIME EXPANSION IS BEING HELD. DOES THE DECLINE IN THE PAST
TWO YEARS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH POINT OF ACREAGE HAS BEEN REACHED? WILL COTTON TAKE
AN INCREASING PROPORTION OF THE NEW LANDS, OR WILL WHEAT ACREAGE EXPAND FROM PRESENT
LEVELS WHENEVER WHEAT PRICES AGAIN BECOME RELATIVELY PROFITABLE IN COMPARISON WITH
COTTON PRICES?


- 15 -








Texas: Wheat Acreage (Winter Wheat Seeded Preceding

Fall and Spring Wheat) 1909 to Date


10 '0 1 '12 *1 I .6 11 'is l 1 9 21 22 23 '24 5 6 27 *26 31 *32 '33 *3
1909 1915 1920 1925" 1930 1 935
FIGURE 16 THE WHEAT ACREA',E OF TEXAS HAS DOUBLED IN THE PAST SIX YEARS, ADD-
ING A MILLION AND A HALF ACRES. EXPANSION HAS CONTINUED AT A RAPID RATE SINCE 1926
IN SPITE OF THE FALLING PRICES. THERE IS HERE NO INDICATION OF APPROACHING A LIMIT


- 16 -











Canada:Wheat Acreage, 1908 to Date
ACRES _
MIUJONS I I I I I = I I I I


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935
FIGURE 17 CANADIAN ACREAGE HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED SINCE 1925. WAR PRICES STIM-
ULATED THE VERY RAPID EXPANSION WHICH CARRIED THROUGH UNTIL 1921. Low PRICES CHECKED
THE EXPANSION FOR A FEW YEARS BUT, AS IN THE UNITED STATES. HIGH PRICES IN 1924-25
AGAIN SLIMULATED EXPANSION. WHICH HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN RECENT YEARS IN THE FACE OF
FALLING PRICES. IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS WE HAVE SHIPPED 7.870 COMBINES. AND 68,821
TRACTORS TO CANADA
17 -


- - - - - --. .---- =__ ..- ""-L ,


.mE








Manitoba and Eastern Provinces: Wheat Acreage

1910 to Date


M I LLIONS
OF ACRES

4.5 -


4.0


3.5 -


3.0o -


2.5 -


2.0
1910


I. 12 13 *


1915


.6 I7 .1 .i


1920 j 2,
1920


1925


FIGURE 18 IN CANADA AS IN THE UNITED STATES THE OLDER PRODUCING AREAS ARE CON-
TRACTING WHILE THE NEWER PRODUCING AREAS ARE EXPANDING. THE HIGHER PRICES OF 1924-25
RESULTED IN SOME INCREASE IN THE AREA OF MANITOBA AND THE EASTERN PROVINCES BUT THIS
INCREASE DID NOT GO FAR TOWARD RECOVERING REDUCTION FOLLOWING THE WAR AND THE AREA
HAS AGAIN TURNED DOWNWARD


- 18 -


1930











Saskatchewan: Wheat Acreage, 1905 to Date


MILLIONS
OFACRES

14

IZ

I0

8

6

4

2

0Is


05'


07 "06 ( 1
1910


"12 1 '4 15
1915


U '23 "2 '226
1925


'28 9 29
1930


1932 533 3
1935


FIGURE 19 WHEAT ACREAGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN SASKATCHEWAN. BUT THIS PROVINCE
IS BECOMING OLD WHEAT PRODUCING TERRITORY AND THE RATE OF EXPANSION OF RECENT YEARS
HAS BEEN ONLY MODERATE IN COMPARISON WITH THE EXPANSION THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE IN MANY
OF THE NEWER WHEAT PRODUCING REGIONS. DOUBTLESS THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR EXPAN-
SION IN SASKATCHEWAN


- 19 -


liii l~iili iii


1 19 20
1920











ACRES
MILLION.

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

I

0


'II "12 13 "* 9 15 17 'IM 1I 21
310 1915 1920


"22 "23 .2 "26
1925


*2' '28 '29 '31
1930


132 '33 '3
1935


FIGURE 20 ALBERTA DOES NOT KNOW THAT THE WAR IS OVER. HER WHEAT ACREAGE HAS
CONTINUED TO EXPAND AT A RAPID RATE SINCE Iq10, THROUGH THE WAR PERIOD, TO DATE. BE-
GINNING WITH ONLY A MILLION ACRES. THAT PROVINCE LAST YEAR HAD 7-1/2 MILLION ACRES.
IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THE INCREASE IN THE WHEAT AREA OF THIS PROVINCE ALONE HAS BEEN
MORE THAN 2 MILLION ACRES. ABOUT HALF AS MUCH AS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HARD WINTER WHEAT
STATES. THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR A LOT OF NEW WHEAT ACREAGE IN ALBERTA


- 20 -


Alberta: Wheat Acreage, 1910 to Date


dp









Australia: Wheat Acreage, 1904 to Date


MI LLIONS
OFACRES

14

12

10

8

6

4

2


n


r I 0


I I I I


I I I I


I I I I I I I I I


- I A J I


1 I i i I


I-A


I


I I I


-I


liii ~ liii III! liii


1 905 1910"' 11 1915


i6 '7 l'B i19 2 2'2 '2 5 '21 .2 9 0 '. 9i
1920 1925 1930


FIGURE 21 IN AUSTRALIA AS IN ARGENTINA ACREAGE HAS EXPANDED RAPIDLY IN THE
PAST SIX YEARS. IN THIS PERIOD AUSTRALIA HAS ADDED ABOUT AS MANY ACRES AS THE SOUTH-
WESTERN HARD WINTER WHEAT STATES HAVE ADDED. IN AUSTRALIA AS ON THE GREAT PLAINS,
MOISTURE IS THE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN LIMITING THE AREAS AVAILABLE FOR WHEAT PRODUCTION;
aUT THERE AS HERE THE COMBINE AND THE TRACTOR ARE AIDING IN THE EXPANSION. CANADA
AND THE UNITED STATES ARE SUPPLYING THE MACHINERY, THE UNITED STATES HAS SHIPPED FOR
HER 398 COMBINES AND 21,000 TRACTORS IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS


- 21 -


*J3 34
1935


_______ ____ James ___ ___




~- -w










Argentina: Wheat Acreage. 1904 to Date


MILLIONS
OPFACRES

20


18



16



14



12


I I I I I I I I I I' I I I I I I I

















CI w aS IO I6 l1 I [1 Ii ii '. Ii .1 I8 l e 86 Iu h IS 35 3&
1905 1910 o 1915" 19 0 2--" 1925" 7936 "1935


FIGURE 22 ARGENTINA IS ALSO USING THE COMBINE AND THE TRACTOR ON NEW LANDS TO
PRODUCE MORE WHEAT. IN FIVE YEARS WE HAVE SOLD TO THAT COUNTRY 16,683 COMBINES, AND
24,382 TRACTORS. A SHORT CROP IK 1919, FOLLOWED BY LOW PRICES, REDUCED THE ARGENTINE
ACREAGE TO A LOW LEVEL, BUT THE COMEBACK WAS QUICK. BETWEEN 1924 AND 1928, 4,000,000
ACRES WERE ADDED EVEN IN THE FACE OF FALLING PRICES IN RECENT YEARS. THE REDUCTION
IN THE PAST YEAR IS NOT DUE TO INTENTIONS SO MUCH AS TO WEATHER. ANOTHER SHORT CROP
AND LOW PRICES MAY CURTAIL ARGENTINE ACREAGE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL
ROOM IN ARGENTINA FOR CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION

-' 22 -







Estimated Wheat Acreage for Russia

Average, 1909-1913 and 1921 to Date
ACRES ___________________
MILLIONS I I


80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10


0 1
1921


1925 1930


1935


FIGURE 23 RUSSIA IS AN OLD WHEAT PRODUCER NOW TRYING NEW TRICKS. THE REVOLU-
TION GREATLY CURTAILED WHEAT ACREAGE. BY 1926 THE PRE-WAR AREA HAD SEEN RECOVERED,
IF WE CAN BELIEVE RUSSIAN STATISTICS. NOW THE NEW GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING A CONSIDER-
ABLE INCREASE IN WHEAT PRODUCTION. IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS THE UNITED STATES HAS
SHIPPED ABOUT 39,000 TRACTORS AND ABOUT 500 COMBINES TO RUSSIA. UNDOUBTEDLY THE
RUSSIAN WHEAT AREA CAN BE INCREASED TO A LARGE EXTENT


- 23 -










Estimated Wheat Acreage for Europe (Excluding
Russia) Average. 1909-1913, and 1921 to Date
MILLIONS I T_ _
OF ACRES A.I -- I I


1921


1925 1930


1935


FIGURE 24 EUROPEAN WHEAT ACREAGE OUTSIDE OF RUSSIA HAS NOT YET RECOVERED TO
THE PRE-WAR LEVEL. AREAS HAVE DECLINED OR REMAIN BELOW PRE-WAR LEVELS IN THE UNITED
KINGDOM, FRANCE, AND RUMANIA. IN OTHER COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY SPAIN, ITALY, YUGO-
SLAVIA, AND HUNGRY, THE WHEAT AREAS HAVE INCREASED BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY TO MAKE UP
FOR THE SMALLER AREAS IN 3THER COUNTRIES. ON THE WHOLE, NO MATERIAL EXPANSION IN
WHEAT ACREAGE IS TO BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF RUSSIA


- 24 -


72

70

68

66

64

62

60


. .. ...... ...








CENTS PER
BUSHEL
90

80

70

60.
p.F^


U


GERMANY


FRANCE


-I


ITALY







n


40

30__ _

20


10
APRIL JULY JUNE28 2 APRIL JULY JUNE28 2 APRIL JULY JUNE28
1923 1923 1923 12 9913
1929 1929 1930 1929 1929 1930 1929 1929 1930

FIGURE 25 TARIFF DUTIES HAVE BEEN GREATLY INCREASED IN THE PAST EIGHTEEN MONTHS.
SINCE APRIL, 1929, ITALY HAS ADDED 29 CENTS, FRANCE 52 CENTS, AND GERMANY 65 CENTS PER
BUSHEL ON IMPORTED .WHEAT. A LARGE PART OF THESE INCREASES HAVE SEEN PUT INTO EFFECT IN
THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS. THESE INCREASES IN DUTIES HAVE BEEN MADE 3Y THE RESPECTIVE
GOVERNMENTS FOR THE PURPOSE OF PROTECTING THEIR DOMESTIC MARKETS FROM WORLD COMPETITION
AT LOW PRICES, WHEN THEY HAD LARGE DOMESTIC SUPPLIES
25 -


7


i








Wheat: Stocks in Principal Exporting Countries and

Afloat, as of July I, 1922 to Date


MILLIONS
OF
BUSHELS

600

500

400

300

200

100

0


m UnitedStates m Canada m Argentina rAustralia
mAfloat


M-


1922


I-


- I----


'24 '26 '28


'30


I95
1935


FIGuRE 26 STOCKS OF OLD WHEAT AS OF JULY I, THE BEGINNING OF THE WHEAT MARKET-
IN% SEASON IN THE UNITED STATES, INCREASED RAPIDLY FROM 1926 TO 1929. THE WORLD
STOCKS OF WHEAT ON JULY I, 1929 ARE PROBABLY THE RECORD FOR ALL TIME. THE STOCKS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS MONTH ARE STILL LARGE BUT LESS THAN A YEAR AGO. THE UNACCOUNT-
ED FOR STOCKS PROBABLY HAVE BEEN REDUCED MORE THAN INDICATED UY THIS CHART
26 -











MILLI
OF
BUSH


Wheat: World Visible Supply
July 1, 1925 to Date
NNS___________
I | I I
ELS --. 1925-26
-- /1926-27
-.-'. 1927-28
--n- 1928-29
1929-30


600


500


400


300


200


100


JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE
FIGURE 27 THE WORLD'S VISIBLE SUPPLY OF WHEAT HAS
BEEN INCREASING EACH YEAR SINCE 1925. MONTHLY THE VISIBLE
SUPPLIES OF THE PAST YEAR HAVE BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH


- 27 -










Wheat: Prices of British Parcels at Liverpool and

No.2 Hard Winter at Kansas City, July 1922 to Date
CENTS PER
BUSHEL 1 1 1


200




150




100


50 i llUII..
JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JuLY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY
1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931
FIGURE 28 LIVERPOOL BEING A FREE MARKET FOR LARGE QUANTITIES OF WHEAT FROM
ALL PARTS OF THE WORLD IS IN A REAL SENSE A WORLD WHEAT MARKET. PRICES AT KANSAS
CITY GENERALLY FLUCTUATE WITH PRICES AT LIVERPOOL, BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN KANSAS
CITY AND LIVERPOOL PRICES IS SOMETIMES WIDE AND SOMETIMES VERY NARROW. IN FACT,
OCCASIONALLY THE PRICE OF IN0. 2 HARD WINTER WHEAT AT KANSAS CITY IS AS HIGH AS,
OR A LITTLE ABOVE, THE AVERAGE AT LIVERPOOL


- 28 -






Indexes of Wholesale Commodity Prices

in Specified Countries, 1922 to Date
PER CENT
140 ---,
1926= 100
J Ipn __ __ _
120 --
ar7France
SA UnitedK/ldom L r emn
100
staft,/y
80


60

40 6 Mii imlmi Mmijmtiiiuiii^

1922 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 1922'23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 30 '31

FIGURE 29 THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE GENERAL COMMODITY PRICE LEVEL 18 WORLD-WIDE.
IN SOME COUNTRIES THE DECLINE BEGAN EARLIER AND HAS CONE FARTHER THAN IN THE UNITED
STATES. SUCH A DECLINE IN PRICES REDUCES .THE PURCHASING POWER OF CONSUMERS AND FORCES
PRODUCERS TO TAKE LESS IF THEY WISH TO SELL WHAT THEY HAVE


- 29 -












THE WORLD WHEAT SUPPLY AND PRICES


110L


3.700 3.800 3900 400' 4.100 4.200 4.300 4.4
SUPPLY. MILLION BUSHEL ADJUSTED TO 1928
SUPPLIES INCLUDE PRODUCTION AND STOCKS ACCOUNTED FOR JULY I AND ADJUSTED TO I92B WI ADDING 70 MILLION
EUSNILs PEN YEAR PON ANNUAL INCREASE IN DEMAND. PRICES ARE AVERAGE m ITIHN PAMCCLS TO mIPIuINT THI WORLD MARKET
PICES.


00


FIGURE 30 WORLD WHEAT PRICES ARE CLOSELY RELATED
TO SUPPLY, WHILE THE GENERAL COMMODITY PRICE LEVEL RE-
MAINS ABOUT THE SAME. A SMALL WORLD SUPPLY AS IN 1924
RESULTS IN HIGH PRICES IN LIVERPOOL, WHEREAS A VERY
LARGE SUPPLY, AS IN 1928, RESULTS IN LOW PRICES IN
LIVERPOOL. ACCORDING TO THIS CHART IN THE PAST FEW
YEARS A CHANGE OF 100 MILLION BUSHELS IN THE AVERAGE
SUPPLY WOULD CHANGE THE WORLD MARKET PRICES ABOUT 8
CENTS PER BUSHEL
30 -









Kansas City: United Kingdom Price Spread
and Exports of Hard Winter Wheat from U.S.


AVERAGE SPREAD BETWEEN BRITISH
CENTS I


25


20


15


10


5


0


PARCELS PRICE AND NO.2 H.W.AT K.C.


EXPORTS OFHARD WINTER WHEAT FROM U.S.
FIGURE 31 WHEN THE EXPORTABLE SURPLUS OF HARD RED WINTER WHEAT IS LARGE AS
IN THE 1924-25 SEEON, KANSAS CiTY PRICES ARE FAR BELO0 LIVERPOOL. WHEN THE EXPORT-
ABLE SURPLUS IS SMALL, AS IN THE 1925-26 SEASON1 KANSAS CITY PRICES ARE CLOSE TO
THOSE IN LIVERPOOL. THE EXPORTS OF HARD RED WINTER WHEkT IN THE PAST SEVEN YEARS
HAVE AVERAGED ABOUT 60 MILLION BUSHELS PER YEAR, WITH AN AVERAGE SPREAD BETWEEN
LIVERPOOL AND KANSAS CITY OF ABOUT 23 CENTS


- 31 -


120



































1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930
FIGURE 32 FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PRICES OF HEAVY HOGS AT CHICAGO SHOW THE RE-
SULTS OF HOG PRODUCTION CYCLES. WHEN PRICES ARE HIGH, FARMERS PLAN TO PRODUCE TOO
MANY HOGS. AFTER PRICES HAVE FALLEN TO A LOW LEVEL, THEY REDUCE BREEDING AND CUT
DOWN PRODUCTION UNTIL PRICES RISE TO A HIGH LEVEL AGAIN. THESE CYCLES VARY IN
LENGTH FROM ABOUT 3 TO 5 YEARS. WE ARE NOW IN THE HIGH PRICE PHASE OF THE HOG
CYCLE, AND A GOOD CORN CROP PROBABLY WOULD RESULT IN THE BREEDING OF MORE BOWS TO
PRODUCE MORE HOGS IN 1931

32 -











PRICES OF LAMBS AT CHICAGO, 1901-1930


PRICE PER 104
IN TERMS OF
1913 AND 1928
DOLLARS

16



14



8 12


10



8


4 6


1890


....... II ....... ................. 11 ..... Jim I...IIII I II .I Illl
: 1.1 H .... ,ll, w illifi [1 L_1 -I it I- Ii ,i ,,-UI IIIIIILILIJII IIIlIU LlI 1_1 -ll~~ U.I ]L ~L .LJ I _1UJU


1895


1900


1905


1910


1915


1920


1925


1930


FIGURE 33 LAMB PRODUCTION MOVES IN CYCLES, HIGH PRICES BRINGING LARGER PRODUC-
TION AND LOW PRICES. THESE CYCLES VARY IN LENGTH FROM ABOUT 8 TO 9 YEARS. WE ARE NO0W
IN THE HIGH PRODUCTION LOW PRICE PHASE OF THE LAMB PRICE CYCLE

33 -










PRICES OF WOOL AT BOSTON, 1900-1930


PRICE PER 101
IN TERMS OF
1913 AND 1928
DOLLARS
4 4

40 60


36 54


32 48

28 42


24 36


20 30


16 24


FIGURE 34 WOOL PRICES DEPEND LARGELY UPON WORLD WOOL PRODUCTION, AND EVI-
DENTLY THERE IS A WORLD SHEEP PRODUCTION CYCLE FOR WOOL PRICES ALSO MOVE IN CYCLES.
WE ARE NOW IN THE HIGH PRODUCTION LOW PRICE PHASE OF THE WOOL CYCLE


- 34 -


.1













PRICES OF BEEF STEERS AT CHICAGO, 1890-1930


PRICE PER 100 POUNDS
IN TERMS OF ---
1913 AND 1928
1 DOLLARS I
IZ 18r


lOHh-


M90


STrend of prices (12-month moving average centered)
---- Actual prices (prices, adjusted for changes in commodity price level)

II I I l~ l llli [l V V


rnI


1895


II
a
b


1900


* I,
-.
* Iii
~iI~'I


1905


gi


1910


4
U


1915


1920


u'f


1925


1930


FIGURE 35 CATTLE CYCLES ARE LONGER THAN HOC OR SHEEP CYCLES. THE CATTLE
PRODUCTION AND PRICE CYCLE USUALLY RUNS ABOUT 14 TO 16 YEARS. WE ARE NOW IN THE
LOW PRODUCTION HIGH PRICE PHASE OF THE CATTLE CYCLE AND APPARENTLY STARTING TO
INCREASE PRODUCTION AND REDUCE PRICES


- 35 -


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