The future need for farm land

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The future need for farm land
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Baker, O. E ( Oliver Edwin ), 1883-1949
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics. -- Division of Land Economics
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,^ : "THE FTUII NEED FOR FARM LAND 3 <
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i i^X ... 9. E. Baker, Senior Agricultural Economist, U. S. Depart-
.... ... meant of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics,
I II.,""f, Division of Land Economics.*
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..i,.:.:i.: .7 In planning for a .less wasteful and more rcr:anent utilization of the
Iresoures of the nation, it is i-nportant to coti-ate the future need for
W*i&: land, particularly for crop land. Tnis future need for farm land depends
A:A::.i!i:-t:he future consumption of farm products and upon nroduc'Tion per acre. The
,. ;g p8et for coLsumnDtion depends, in turn, on the future population of tao nation.,
"x aonsm.nptlon per person, and on net ex-ports or imrorts; -Ahile the prospect for
:.pr Ud0 tion per acre ienendn on ch&.n.;es in agr-tc.altural tcch.ni;.e, on changes in
tbh crons or livestock protlucsd, and on cb-anges in soil fertility.
Part I. The Prospect for Consum.Ttion of Farm Products

By far the most important factor affecting the consumption of farm pro-
t: :i S in the future, as in tho nast, will be, doubtless, tLe number of people
I~ ~ the nation.
.. ""The Population Prospect LU S iEPS TORY
...... :.,____.... US DEPOSITORY
... : ...[ ..:: .
.::i:;;: The population of the United States can be predicted for a few decades
i'Olb^omHe with more certainty than any other factor affecting the future need for
.I...land, because over 90 percent of the people who will be livin, in the nation
S'1%940o, and about 75 percent of those who will be living in 1950, are living
..:'..T.". and the number who will die each year can be n-oredicted closely by p1ilying
*A'Lo lg station of life tables, such as are used by insurance companies. There is
;Z;.8:f!l certainty as to how rich longer the decline in nur;rber of births will continue
V. Ai^i as to whether the restrictions on immigration will be relaxed. However, in
VrV-2$ w off the fact that it required 50 years to change the attitude of the American
_.kA, a le toward immigration, and that there is no suggestion at present of a reversal
n.... this attitude, it seems safe to dismiss this factor of immigration in consider-
!:,Mlllll. the need for farm land during the next decade or two. A much more important
'.*tA"'i.tor is the declining number of births.
?.7" '..
.' Ui' :. The Declining Number of Births. Since 1921 there have been fewer children
Each year in the United States than in the year preceding, with three excep-
W$pns. In 1921, the peak year in number 3f births in the nation's history, nearly
i.:S000,0 children were born, and in 1933 probably less than 2,300,C00. The decline
> .-iII b )irths has been at the rate of about 60,000 a year, and t.ais decline has per-
]i]Ttl| in prosperity as well as depression (Fi&pre 1.) In 1933 births were,
r: i:q ently, fully 100,000 fewer than in 1932. T.e enrollment in the lower grades
......the public schools has begun to decline, and soon this decline will extend into
d'i Ib 'upper grades.

Many causes have been assigned to -he declining birthrate, suTh as, the
:i '4*slusionment of the people that followed the vorld .war, in association with the
P ...ZI cost of living in the cities, the v.idening desire for higher education for
i ;I children with-i associated considerations ,-f prudence, the cravings for luxury,
Ft teemeonts, and social -position, wnicn only a riid. restriction on the size of the
Scan provide in many cases, and, more recentl:.,, uincertbinty as to one's job
An'tome. Other influences sometimes mentioned incla'.e +he decline in religious
..A rity and the spread of information as to methods of birth control. But back
4Iti.AV lies a philosophy of life, and individual juagnints as to wh.iat is worth
And back of the philosophy of life lies tho constant pressure of an economic
As wth the restrictions on immigration, t'-er3 are n signs af a reversal
008 at Fa-r and IHo-e Week, Iowa State College, LAmnes, Iowa, February 9, 1934.
;eyise& to Au.ust, 1934.
( i ; :; .. ( ..~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~.... ..... .............................. ..... .


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1.W,!







of the attitude of the American people toward the size of the family, and the only. :.!
safe assumption seems to be that the birthrate will continue to decline for at
least a decade. (Figure 2) .

But there are now not enough children being born in the United States to
maintain the present population permanently, and only a rise in the birthrate or
relaxation of the restrictions on immigration, associated with opportunity for
ermiplo3ynent, can prevent a declining population as the large number of middle-aged
people today, tne heritage of tne higher birthrate and heavier immigration of the
past, grow old and die. We must face the facts in the population situation. The
outstanding fact is this, thit tiiroughout the Eurbpean sphere of civilization, the :3
birthrate is declining rapidly. Scarcely less significant is the fact that in
Great Britian, France, Belgium, Germany, Austria, and the Scandanavian nations, :!
as well as in the United States, there are now not enough children being born to
maintain permanently their present populations. (Figure 3)

In Italy, Spain, Eastern Europe and Russia there is still a large excess of
births over the number necessary to maintain population stationary, but in these
countries also tlhe trend of the birthrate is downward. In Jcpan, the declining


ULUUKiirLE- paticuCLarl~y in the cities, suggests niat a1 staiiuxnary populianon will
be reached within 30 years. Ij But in India, despite the abject poverty, population
continues to increase at an amazing rate; while in China the increase is prevented
only by the wars, famines, and pestilences that Malthus described.

Reproduction, Rural and Urbarn It appears that our modern urban indus-
trial a!d commercial system, with its economic and social corrollaries, now tends
to reduce the birthrate below tne level of population maintenance as universally
as the self-sufficing agricultural s-stem tends to maintain it above that' level,
In every state of the United States, without exception, the ratio of children uzder
5 years of age in 1930 to women 15 Do 45 years of a.ge was smaller in the urban
population thaiz in the rural; and tnis is true also of every nation of Europe thdt
collects birth statistics, likewise of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
Moreover, in every state in the United States, except New Jersey, the ratio of
children to woraen was lower in the large cities, that is, those over 100,00o
population, than' in the smaller cities. (Figure 4). In the large cities the num-
ber of children is now only two-thirds to three-fourtns sufficient to maintain
population pe'ma.Lently stationary vitnout accessions from outside; in the smaller
cities the deficit is 10 to 15 percent; while in the rural no.-farm (mostly village)
population there is a 25 to 30 percent surplus, and in the farn population a 40 to
50 percent surplus.

The fundamental cause of this wide difference which has developed between
the urban and rural population witn reference to reproduction of thie race is, in
my opinion, that agriculture is a family affair, whereas in urban industry arnd
couLnerce the individual is the economic unit. In agriculture the wife is almost
essential to success. The children can help with the work, with benefit usually
to t.eir health and character, uid perhaps almost pay their way from 10 years of
age onward; aind even the aged find something to do. In urban industry and commerce,
on the other hand, the wife generally is less closely identified with the business
enterprise, unless she also is employed outside the home, in which case it is
difficult to raise a family. Children are a lead to carry in climbing the ladder
of success--it costs probably three times as much to raise and educate a child in
the city as it does on the farm- anid there is little for tne aged to do. The
social code, if such it may be called, which is characteristic of the people in the
cities vwitnin the European sphere of civilization, and which grows out of the
economic system, is unquestionably promoting depopulation. ______ __
l1 See Uyedr., Teijiro, "Future of the Japanese population" published by
Institute of Pacific Relations, New York, 1933.





Will the Birthrate Rise? Because this social code is based on the economic
system, and because the ideals, habits and customs of a People change slowly, it
seems unlikely that the birthrate will rise in time to prevent a decrease in popula-
tion in North America and the nations of northwestern.Europe. And this decrease in
population will be rapid, if the birthrate continues to decline, unless there is
heavy immigration from southern or eastern Euro-oe or the Orient. There are now
about 9 percent fewer children under 5 years of age in the United States, and 7
percent fewer 5 to 10 years of age, than when the census was taken in 1930.and it
is possible, if .not probable, that by 1940 there will be 20 percent fewer children
under 10 years of age than in 1930. This means fewer marriages a quarter century
hence, and correspondingly fewer children in the second generation, if.present
attitudes persist. A change in ideals is essential if modern civilization is to
avoid a decline in population that will be raid, persistent and progressive.

The Population Prospect. However, the population of the United States
will continue to increase for at least 10 years, probably 20 years, possibly
30 years, principally because the large number of middle-aged people must first
grow old and die. By 1940 there will be almost certainly 7,000,000, possibly
9,000,000, more people in the United States t.ian there were in 1930, and between
1940 and 1950 there may be a further gain of 3,000,000 to 5,000,000. Soon after
1950, possibly before, the prospect is that population will become stationary,
and by 1960 it will have started to C'.ecline. (Figure 5.) We must look forward to
an increase of population between now and the peak year considerably less than that
which' has occurred since the world war, and then a decrease which will accelerate
at about the same rate as the present increase, reversed as to time, unless the
birthrate rises, or immigration increases greatly. By 1975, or, perhaps, a decade
earlier, the population of the nation may have fallen to or below the Dresent level.
For a third to a half century to come, therefore, the population of the nation
seems likely to remain within 10 or 12 percent of wiat it is, at present. This may
be compared with an increase of 16 percent between 1920 and,1930.

But although the total population of the nation may not change greatly for
a third to half a century, there will be great changes in the number of children
and of old people, and there may be great changes in the number of people living
in rural and in urban territory.

At three acres of crop land harvested Der person, practically the figure
shown by the census of 1930, the nation will need by 1940 about 25,000,000 more
acres of harvested crops than were reported by the census of 1930; and wnden the peak
of population is reached, probably so.n after 1950, abdut 35,000,000 acres mare than
in 1930'would be needed, other factors remaining unchanged. Let us consider, there-
fore, the prospect for change in the next most important factor affecting the
consumption of farm products, namely, the change in diet and in ner capital consump-
tion of cotton, flaxseed, tobacco, and other non-food products.

Consumption per Person

The need for farm land is greatly affected by the diet of a people. In the
United States it requires nearly 21 acres of crops to feed the average norson and
about 6 acres of pasture, much of which, however, in the arid West is of low produc-
tivity. In Germany it requires only about an acre of crop.land and half an acre of
pasture to feed the average person, in Cnina only half an acre of crop land and
practically no pasture, and in Japan only a quarter acre of crop land. The acre-
yields of the crops are higher in Germany and Japan, possibly in China also, than
in the United States; but the major cause of this difference in area required to
feed a person is diet.






The difference is still more extreme if the various foodstuffs be con-
sidered. If it were possible for a man to live on sugar alone only a third of
an acre, at the average acre-yields in the United States, would be sufficient -.
to feeda person for a year (provide enough calories). Of corn or rice about
3/4 acre would be needed, and of wheat l acre. (Figure 5.) But when the corn
is converted into pork and lard, it requires, as you-know, about 8 bushels of corn
to produce 100 pounds of hog, live weight; and the hog dresses out only about 3/4
edible products; consequently over 3 acres of crop land plus *a little pasturage
are required to produce the equivalent food caloryy) value in pork. The dairy cow
is even more economical than the hog in use of crop area required to produce human
food, about 2-1/3 acres, but requires much more pasturage,. (nearly 1-2/3 acres).
To produce beef of equivalent food caloryy) value, however, requires over 11 acres
of crops and about 2# acres of pasture. It is clear that a large shift in diet from
the cereals toward animal products would involve a great increase in need for farm
land. (Figure 6.)

Changes in Diet. The diet of the American people was not changing very
much prior to the world war, according to tne meager statistical evidence available.
There was the 15 to 17 year cycle in the production and consumption of beef, and
there was an upward trend in the use of sugar. But the restrictions during the
world war, supplemented by the prohibition amendment to the constitution, the higher
wages in the cities and other factors, produced notable changes in the diet. During
the days of the food administration the per capital consumption of wheat flour dropped
about 15 percent below the pre-war level, and has remained more or less constant
since. (Figure 6.) This is just about the average percentage of the wheat crop
that has been exported in recent years, prior to last year. The use of corn and- rye
for human food fell much more, perhaps 50 percent, during the war years and those
that immediately followed. Millions of people moved from the rural South to Northern
cities, where it was not convenient to have corn bread, and millions more in the
South could afford white bread, prior to the depression, for the price of cotton kept
rather high. The decrease in use of rye bread may have been owing in part to the
decreased consumption of beer.

Simultaneously, the per capital consumption of sugar and milk, including dairy
products, increased. The use of sugar rose very rapidly to a point about a third
above the pre-war per capital level by 1924, and taen remained almost stationary till
1930. Tne consumption of milk per nerson rose more slowly but more steadily, until
by 1931 it was also probably about a third above the -ore-war level. The per capital
consumption of sugar declined slightly in 1931, and milk followed in 1932. It was.
the rapidly increasing consumption of milk and dairy products prior to the depression
'that saved the farmers of the dairy states from the severity of the price decline!
that set in in the corn belt in 1921 and afterward in the cotton belt also. This
great increase in use of milk and dairy products can be attributed in part to the
fact that tne dairy lunca and the ice cream stand took the place of the saloon in
the cities to a large extent, and in part to the scientific discoveries of the
vitamin and mineral values of milk. This information as to the extraordinary food
value of milk was disseminated throughout the nation not only in newspaper advertise-
ments but also in the women's magazines, many of the articles for which were written
by teachers of home economics in our state universities. Probably also the larger
income of city people prior to 1930 promoted a greater use of milk. It is remarkable
that the consumption of milk held up so ",ell in 1931 and 1932. But the return of
beer lhas brought a pew factor, the imnoortance of which cannot yet be evaluated.;

Turning to the meats, we find that changes in meat consumption in this
country reflect the changes in livestock slaughter, and that the changes in
slaughter are the result in large part of the livestock production cycles. _/
2/ This discussion of changes in consumption of meat was prepared by C. A.
Burmeister, of the Bureau of Ag;ricultural Economics.




5.
The period from 1912 to the end of 1917 was an upward phase in a cattle production
cycle, and this upswing in production was reflected in increasing slaughter of
cattle from 1914 to 1918. A large nart of this sunply of beef was sent abroad for
the use of the allied armies during the world war, consequently the increase in the
per capital coiisunmption in this country'during that period was not so great as the
increase in. cattle nroductfon and slaughlter.

The rapid decline in cattle orices after 1920 ca-ised cattlemen at first to
hold cattle off the market and tils resulted in a sharp reductions in cattle
slaug.iter and in beef consumption in 1921, but from 1922 to 1926, inclusive,
cattlemen were forced to liquidate nart of t'-ieir herds and the per capita consur o-
tion of beef increased, reaching its post-war peak in 1926. Reduced slaughter
supplies in 1927 caused cattle prices to advance, and these higher prices caused
producers to hold cattle off the market and build uD their herds, thus resulting
in a further decline in beef consumption until the end of 1932. The per canita
consumption in 1932 was the smallest in the 34 years for 'which records have been
compiled and was 25 percent less than tiat in 1926, the peaklyear of the post-war
period.

Early in 1933, the increase in cattle numbers that hiad 'been under way
since 1928 began to be reflected in increased supplies for slaughter, and as a
result the per capital consumption of beef last year was about 10 percent greater
than the record low of the previous year. Consumption is expOected to continue
upward during the next three or four years as a result of the expansion in cattle
numbers that has taken place since 1928, but when the downward phase of the cattle
production cycle gets under way it will be followed soon afterwards by a similar
decline in beef consumption.

The hog production cycle is of much shorter duration than the cattle cycle,
averaging only 3 to 5 years in length, whereas the cattle cycle extends over a
period of 14 to 16 years. Because of th6 short duration of the hog cycle, the
per capital consumption of pork and lard fluctuates much more than that of other
meats. Since hogs ,can be. produced more cheaply than cattle and sheep, especially
on farms suitable for feed-grain production, there has been a very pronounced upward
trend in hog production in this country for many years, and this has been reflected
in a rising trend in the per capital cbnsumnotion of hog products. During the war
period a considerable proportion of the pork and lard produced, like that of beef,
was sent abroad for the use of the Allied forces And this tended to reduce con-
siderably the amount of pork and lard for home use in that period.

Aftret 1919, exports of pork declined sharply, notwttnstanding that hog
slaughter from 1919 to 1923 increased nearly 23 percent. This greatly increased
the supply of .pork and lard for domestic use. The per capital consumption of these
products increased to a record total in 1923 and continued at a high level in 1924.
These large supplies made hog production relatively unprofitable, consequently,
there was a reduction in hog slaughter in 1925 and 1926 and reduced consumption of
hog products. Slaughter again increased in 1928 and 1929, and, "'ith a further.
decline ini exports, the supply of pork and lard for domestic use was expanded. This
was followed by reduced supplies in 1930, 1931, and 1932; but in 1933 hog produc-
tion once more turned upward. Part of the increased supply o6f hog products in 1933
was exported, but most of it went into storage and was carried over into 1934,
consequently the per capital consu notion of hog products in 1933 was not greatly
different from that of 1932.







Production of lamb and mutton (mostly lamb) was greatly expanded after the
war period, the increase in slaughter from 1922 to 1931 amounting to more than 50
percent. Practically all this production is consumed in the domestic market, and.
as a result of the increase in the available supply the per capital consumption of
lamb during the last three years has been near record levels. The total of about
7 pounds per capital, however, is equal to only about one-seventh of that of beef
and about one-tenth that of pork. Veal consumption is about equal to that of lamb
ar.d tends to fluctuate somewhat with that of beef.

Total-per capital consumption of all meats, excluding poultry, in 1933
was 4 t3 5 percent greater than that in 1932, with most of the increase being in
beef and veal. Consumption per capital of meat apparently has increased each year
during the depression, but the increase was very small prior to 1933. Prices were
so low that the people were able to maintain their high standard of living in this
respect. The consumption of eggs per capital increased from 1925 to 1931, but
declined in 1932 and again in 1933.

Turning to the vegetables and fruits, there was a notable increase during
and after the world war in use of the green vegetables, particularly in the cities.
The carlot shipment of vegetables increased 50 percent between 1920 and 1930, as
compared with 27 percent increase in the urban population. For lettuce and spinach
the increase was over 250 percent, for carrots and string beans 500 percent, On
the other hand, the per capital consumption of white potatoes has been trending
slowly downward for a third of a century. Taking the fruits as a whole the trend in
per capital consumption. has, apparently, remained almost horizontal for 30 years at
least, the increasing use of citrus fruits and grapes (prior to the depression)
counterbalancing the decreasing consumption per person of apples.

Combining the quantities of various foodstuffs on the basis of the average
farm price during the decade 1917-1926, it appears that from 1923 to 1928, when tne
cities were prosperous, the level of per capital consumption ranged from 4 to 8
percent above the level just before the world war, but by 1931 the value of the
diet, so measured, had fallen to the pre-war level. (See Figure 7, heavy line)
In 1933 it appears very probable that it rose again above the pre-war level, the
increased consumption of meat more than balancing the slightly decreased consump-
tiorn of milk, as compared with 1932.

The outstanding fact in the development of the American diet since the
beginning of the twentieth century, which is as far back as statistical data permit
safe conclusions, is the shift from the cereals toward the more expensive animal
foods, particularly from corn and wheat toward milk and poultry products and pork.
In addition, there was the notable increase in consumption of sugar after the
prohibition amendment went into effect and the greater use, at least in the cities,
of green vegetables. These shifts in diet have had profound regional influences.
The 30 percent increase, more or less, in per capita consumption of milk and dairy
products, for example,, has promoted the prosperity of the dairy states.

Chances in Consumption of Non-food Products. Turning to the non-food
products we find that the per capital consumption of cotton in the United States
remained remarkably uniform for 30 years prior to the depression at about 25
pounds. Increasing industrial use counterbalanced the declining use for clothing.
By the year 1931 '32, Au.-ust to August, consumption of cotton per person had
fallen to 18 pounds, but during the past year, 1932 '33, it rose to 23 pounds,
or almost back to the uredepression level. However, this decline in consumption
for a few years was sufficient to build up a large surplus of stocks, which exerted
a vpry depressing influence on the price of cotton. The per capital consumption of
tobacco increased somewhat from the beginning of the century to the beginning of
the World War, increased rapidly during the War, and remained more or less constant








afterward until 1929. Since 1930 consumption has decreased notably. The Der
capita consumption of flaxseed, used mostly to produce linseed oil, rose rapidly
from 1918 to 1924, then remained fairly steady until 1928. During the depression
consumption has fallen to about half.

Diets and Land Requirements. Viewing the first third of the twentieth
century the outstanding fact is that, alt.ough.great changes occurred in the
use of certain products, particularly since the world war, the per capital consump-
tion of farm products, taken as a 'v.Lole, has rei.:Pined remarkably constant. At no
time has the aggregate consu-umotion per p-rsonr. of tne foodstuffs risen more than
8 percent above or fallen more than 7 percent below the level at tihe beginning of
the century. The farmers continue to prjr'uce in depression as well as in. nrosrerity,
and the people continue to consume. What a calr-:nity it wouldd be if agricul"tur-,:
production had fallen to a minimum of one-*half during the d'!oression, a.; iLAustri.Pl
production has done. Millions of people ii1ght 'Lave perished. Pight in this fret
lies, in my opinion, a major, possibly the major, explanation of the present low
prices for farm products. The city people have been producing only half to t.ree-
fourths as much as before the depression, and they have, apparently, been. able to
offer the farming people only half to thr-e-fourths ac much in exchange. Ti'e"
economic breakdown in the cities has been a very important cause of the low prices
for farm products. The prices .of farm products cannot rise much more rapidly th.rn
the income of city Peoples without inducing a shift toward the cheaper foods,
particularly toward the cereals. And a shift back toward the cereal foods would
have a marked effect upon the future need for farm land.

Recently Dr. Stiebeling and Miss Ward, of the Bureau of Home Economics in
Washington, made a study of four diets. 3/ The c-ieapest diet is called the
"emergency restricted diet." It consists largely of the cereals, and it would
require 3nly about 1.2 acres of crop land to produce enough of the foods in this
diet to feed the average person for a year. It is an emergency diet, and deficiency
diseases might develop within a year. Much better, but more expensive, is the
"adequate diet at minimum cost." It includes more meat and milk, more fruit and
vegetables,, and would require about 1.8 acres per capital to Produce. The "adequate
diet at moderate cost" provides even less cereals, but increases the supply of rilk
to a quart per person ner day. These experts on nutrition believe that milk is so
valuable a food that its use must not be restricted for the sake of economy, exceOt
in cases where it is imperative to have a low cost diet. The supply of meats and
fruits and vegetables is further increased in this "adequate diet at moderate cost."
It would require about 2.3 acres of crop land ner person to produce this diet, which
is practically the same as is used in the United States at present. Finally, in
the "liberal", or ideal, diet the consumption of cereals per person is reduced to
100 pounds a year, or about half the national average at present, and less than 1/3
pound a day, while milk is kept at a quart, or two pounds a day, the fruits and
vegetables are increased to over two pounds a day, and the meats to nearly n nolf a
pound a day. In addition, one egg a day is recommended. If all the people in the
nation could afford and would use this "liberal" diet the consumption of milk would
be increased over 50 percent, and of meat somewhat less, but the use of wieat flour
would be reduced to less taan half the present consumption. To produce this diet
would require 3.1 acres of crop land as compared with 2.3 acres at present. The
"liberal" diet requires two and a half times the acreage required to produce the
"emergency restricted diet.1'
3/ Stiebeling, Hazel K. and Ward, Medora IA., "Diets at Four Levels of Nutritive
Content and Cost," Circular 296, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, 1933.






Should the people in thie cities find it necessary to retreat from their
present fairly high standard of living with reference to diet, the effect upon the
amount of farm land needed would be profound. On the other hand, if those among
tne farming people of the South who live largely on "hog, hominy and hoe cake",
to use a common phrase, and others among the oeaple of the Appalachian Mountain
region anm the even mnre numerous poorly nourished people in the cities could have
the fo Ad they need, particularly the milk and meat and eggs, the fruits, and vege-
tables, there would be a great increase in the need for farm land. So long as
pellagra, rickets and other deficiency diseases are common in the United States,
we regret to sueak of an agricultural "surplus". Let us hope that urban industry
and commerce can be so organized, and agriculture in the various regions can be
so adjusted, thnt these literally half-starved ce.ple, who are living their lives
on a low plane of efficiency anM achievement, can earn enough and learn enough to
procure tnose foods tney greatly need. It is my opinion that there are millions of
people in the United States who need better food more than they need any manufact*:
ured commodity.

Population Cnanges. an' Occu-oation Changes in Relation to Commercial Demand
for Foodstuffs. -, But whether these oe.)ple will obtain the food they need only the
the future can reveal. And the future is uncertain, Darticularly with reference to
the economic organization of society, the distribution of wealth, and the standard
of living. Yet tnere are some things that will materially affect the consumption
of farm products of which we can be practically certain, and some things that are
not certain nevertheless deserve consideration. We will note only two of these
prospective changes those that will occur in age, and those that may occur in
occupation of the people.

It is practically certain that about twenty-five years hence tnere will be
twice as many old people in the nation as there are today. (Figure 8.) Tne number
of persons over 65 years of age increased 34 Dercent between 1920 and 1930 in the
nation as a whole and 50 percent in the urban population. We can be almost as sure
that there will be fewer children. The number of children under 5 years of age
decreased slightly between 1920 and 1930, and it is certain tiat there will be 10
to 12 percent less in 1935 t.Lan in 1939. There may be 20 to 25 percent less by
1940. Probably unfortunately there are few statistics on the subject children
drink more milk than old people. Twenty percent fewer young children in 1940 than
in 1930, and still fewer in 1950, is a possibility that needs to be considered by
the dairy industry. Taere are doubtless other foods than milk the consumption of
which will be affected by the aging of the population.

Quite uncertain, on the other hand, is the prospect for c-iange in the
occupation of the people, with resultant effect upon the market for farm products.
According to the census of 1870 about 53 percent of all persons gainfully employed
were engaged in agriculture. By 1930 this proportion had fallen to 21 percent.
(Figure 9.) Agricultural production -per Derson engaged increased, apparently, about
two and a half fold in the 60 years. After 1920 the proportion engaged in manu-
facturing and mechanical pursuits and in mining also declined, despite a great
increase in production. Those not needed in basic production have resorted mostly
to trade and transportation and to personal and -nrofe'ssional services. The propor-
tion of the population engaged in trade and commerce doubled between 1910 and 1930.
It is very doubtful if services rendered doubled in these 20 years. Apparently
efficiency declined.

There are signs that the costs of distribution are becoming greater than
the traffic will bear, and tne unemployment situation suggests that the proportion
of the population engaged in agriculture and some of the otner basic industries
may increase. Not tnat these -oeople will be needed for commercial production, for








half the farmers in 1929 produced about 88 percent of all farm products "sold or
traded" (to use the census phrase), and this half of the farmers could readily
raise the other 12-percent. But continued inability ,to obtain employment in the
cities may lead to more full-time or part-time farmers. The farm population is now
the highest in the-nation's history and young people are being backed up on 'farms
at the rate of nearly a million a year. The greatest uncertainty in esimtimtlng the
future need for farm land is the future direction of internal migration. Will the
surplus young people on the farms gQ to the cities, to the villages, with much
part-time farming, or to other farms?

I hope the major movement will not be to the cities for three' reasons:
First, it will tend to hasten the decline in the national population; second,
tne more ambitious and better educated youth tend to leave for the cities from
the poorer farming areas particularly, and this probably tends toward deterioration
of the quality of the people; third, because migration to the.ocities involves a
great movement of rural wealth cityward.

Rural-Urban Migration and Somine Consequences. Between 1920 and 1930 the
urban population increased 14,650,000, or 27 percent. About 6,000,OO000 of this'
increase consisted of migrants from the farms, mostly young people, about 3,000,00
more were immigrants from foreign counties, nrd probably less than 6,Q000,0'O, were
the excess of births over deaths in the cities. The city people needed to bear the
cost of feeding, clothing and educating only about 4 0-percernt of the yournz people
who began work in tneir factories, offices and stores between 1920 and 1930; fully
*60 percent were -orovided, almost free of cost, by the farm anO, village people of
the United States and by foreign countries. (Figure 10 & Ii,)

This morning, as I came across central Iowa I could not but observe the
character of the farm houses. There were some splendid houses and large barns, but,
in general, the houses were neither as large nor of as good architecture as the
farm houses of New England and New York State, Eastern-Pennsylvatia and Maryland,
were the farms are smaller and the soil is poorer. Many of these houses in New
England and New York were built out of stony, hillside farms more than a century
ago, when most cows gave only 1,000 to 2,000 pounds of milk a year, as om-oared
with 4,000 to 6,000 pounds today, when artificial fertilizers were unknown, and
when the gain was seeded broadcast, harvested with a sickle or scythe, and
threshed with a flail. These New England, New York, and Pennsylvania houses were
well built, for many of them are almost as good now as a century ago, and the
architecture is excellent. There is unmistakable evidence that the people who
built these houses possessed wealth and culture, and it is clear that in most
cases this wealth came out of the land.

If it were possible to develop such a rural civilization at a time waen
hand labor and poor livestock were characteristic of agriculture, why is it
not possible to do so today when the farmer has all the panoply of modern science
and invention to aid him in his work? The reason resides, in my opinion, largely
in the movement of rural wealth to. the cities.

If.it costs $2,000 to $2,500 (at orede-oression -orices) to rear and educate
the average child on American farms to the age of 15, when he may be assumed to be
be self-supporting, and $150 a year does not seem an excessive estimate of the
cost of food, clothing, medical services, education, ane all the incidental expenses,
then the 6,300,000 net migration from the farms during the decade 1920 1929
represents a c-jntributirrCTiLabut $14,000,000,000. This is'almost equal to the
value of the wheat crop plus half that of tne cotton crops during these years.









Nor is this all. When the farrier and his wife grow old and die the estate
is divided among the children. During the decade 1920 1930 about one-fifth of
the farmers and their wives died, and these estates were distributed among the
children. About one-third of the children had moved to town, and those children
wno remained on the farm had to mortgage the farm in many cases in order to pay
the brothers and sisters who lived in the cities their share of the estate.
A r.ouh estimate indicates taat between $3,000,000,000 and $4,000,00O,000 was
drained from the farms to the cities and villages during the decade 1920 1929
incident to the settlement of estates.

Although it is not intended to draw up a balance sheet of rural-urban
contributions, it is worthy of note that there are great movements of farm
wealth to the cities in addition to those incident to migration. Interest on debt
paid to persons other than farm operators amounted to about @7,500,000,000 during
the decade 1920 1929, while rent paid to persons other than farm operators
amounted to about $10,500,000,000, V/ These payments are of a different
character from the movement of wealth incident to migration, but there can be little
doubt tnat portions of these payments were for the use of capital that had pre-
viously been transferred to the cities as a consequence of migration. The total
movement from these four sources appears to have been about $35,000,000,000 during
the decade, or $3,500,000,000 a year, which was about oae-tnird of the average
annual gross income of all farmers during the decade.

During the depression there has been a migration back to the farms. In 1930,
the movement to and from farms almost balanced. In 1931 the net movement to farms
was over 200,000 and in 1932 it was over 500,000. Estimates for 1933 have not yet
been made. 5/ The excess of births over deaths on farms is nearly 500,000 annually,
and the farm population is now probably 2,000,000 greater than it was when the
depression begpn. In several cities, on the otner hand, deaths now exceed births,
and migration from the cities has, therefore, meant a decrease in population.
Professor Whelpton, of the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems,
estiuiated a year ago that the urban population of the Natioa decreased a half
million during 1932. It is possible a decrease occurred also during 1933. In
Hew York City, for exaumole, the deaths in 1932 of people over 40 years of age were
about 20 percent more rmrLerous than in the years just preceding the depression,
wnich is about the percentage increase to be expected in numbers of old people,
But the de-iths of people u-ider 4, years of age in New York City declined about 20
percent, Evidently as many youn6 people were not there to die many thousands
had gone back to the villages and the farms. People under 40 were nearly two and
one-nrolf times more numerous in New York City in 1930 than people over 40.
Even after allowance e is niade for the lessened death rate among young people, this
decline in deaths of persons ander 40 years old strongLy suggests a notable decrease
in the 2opulction of th.';t city, po ssibjy a_ half million between 1923 and 133.
4/See "Crops "aid Markets" of u3areau of Agricultucal Econo:zics, November 1932,
page 440, and July, 1927, pa-e 254.

j/ The Burearu of Agricultural Economics issued in M!irch 1934 ,an estimate that the
aev. r.icvemient from the farms to the cities, amounting to about 227,000, was resumed
in 1933. This was primarily the result of a great decrease in the movement from
the cities to the farms. Ia addition, there ",as a small increase in the movement
from the f:rmsi to the cities, largely emigrees returning to their old jobs, to
Givil Works positions, or to obtain emergency relief.






11.


THov; much longer this situation will-piersist no one ki.ows,' but it would
be well for farmers to realize that between. 1930 .and l19?4 the urban population
of the nation is n6t likely to increase more than half as much as it did between
1920 4nd 1930, and thnt it is very likely the population of many cities will
decline. Unless foreign trade revives to'an extent approaching its pro-
depression magnitude, it is difficult'for me to see how the.former.populz.tion
of the large Atlantic coast cities-could be supported at the s.ame stai.dard
of living as before the depression. Should the population of the cities
decline before that of the nation as a whole, and if consumption of farm products
per capital does not increase, the domestic commercial dei.Mand for farm products
doubtless will decline before the population of the nation starts downward.
Moreover, the subsistence homestead movement, wnich was makiilg rapid progress
even before the law containing this phrase was passed, suggests that many
people may begin raising a part of their- food supply, while those who now raise
a part may raise more.

The farmers of the nation appear tb be faced with tnese alternatives in
domestic demand for farm products:.

1. If migration to tne cities is resumed, the approach of a stationary
and later declining population will be accelerated, for the farm
population will be depleted of its potential parents, and these
migrants to the cities will'have probably only half to two-thirds
as many children as they would on farms. Temporarily the demand for
farm products will increase, but after a decade or two it is likely
to diminish.

2. If migration to the cities is not resumed, a larger proportion of-the
population will raise a part or all of the farm products they desire.
Tnis will tend to lessen temporarily the commercial demand for farm
products, biut the long-time demand appears likely to be better maintained
than under the condition of continued migration to the cities.

Let us consider, therefore, the third major factor affecting the future
consumption of ftrm products, namely, exports.

The Prospect for Exports of Farm Products I/

The United States has tnree major agricultural regions peculiarly fitted
by climate, soil, and the lay of the land for the production. of a surplus of a
certain farm product cotton from the cotton belt, wheat from the wheat belt,
and corn or animal products from the corn belt. Tne advantages of the cotton
and corn belts are unique, aiid even the wheat belt has certain advantages over
other wheat belts of tne world. It was the farmr products from these great
surplus producing regions that were used to pay back the money the American
people borrowed from Europe to build railroads and make other internal improve-
ments in 'years pact; and later, after the debts were paid, led to great credits
to Europe, which Europe is finding it difficult to repary. It is in these surplus
regions, where commercial agriculture is dominant, that the decline in prices of
farm products has had sucn devastating effects. I shall consider briefly Lne
situation relative to exports of the characteristic comnDdities from these belts


I Since this address was given official measures have been set in motion looking
toward the increase of our exports. This discussion does not include consider-
ation of them ir. their probable effects.






12,
and make such deductions as seem justified to me as a student of these matters.

Cotton The American cotton belt and China are the only large areas
outside of the tropics which possess both temperature and rainfall conditions
suitable for tne production of cotton, and China imports large quantities of
American cotton. In the river bottoms and in the western portion of the cotton
belt the soil is fertile, and in the eastern portion the normally high value
of the crop permits the practically universal use of fertilizers. Moreover,
the cotton belt possesses a large supply of cheap labor peculiarly adapted to
the simple culture of this crop, and, in addition, the people of the south
during a hundred years have accumulated a vast fund of experience and skill
in the production and marketing of the crop.

More than half the cotton of the world is grown in the cotton belt, and
this region is holding its own in the world's markets. The exports of cotton
from the United States constituted a larger proportion of the exports from .
all cotton producing countries during the fiscal years 1931 32, also during 1932-
33, than before the depression, and as large a proportion as during the 5 years
preceding the world war. Indeed, the exports in the past two years were larger
than in any previous years in the nation's history, except the crop years 1910,
1911, 1912, 1926, possibly, one or two other years. These foreign markets for
cotton have not been restricted by tariffs or quotas, as has occurred with wheat,
for the nations that import ,nost of the American cotton do not grow the crop,
with the exception of China. Nor has any Imperial preference been extended in
the case of cotton by Great Britain, doubtless in part because the granting of
such a favor to her dominions or colonies would become a handicap in competing
with other cotton manufacturing nations in the sale of goods on the world's
markets. Exports of cotton from the United States constitute now about three-
fourths of the value of all agricultural exports.

The great uncertainty in tne cotton belt is the perfection of a cotton
picker. If such a machine became widely used it would, no doubt, lower the
cost of production, and this would be an advantage in world competition, This
advantage probably could be maintained, for the principal competing countries
are Egypt, India and China, where the use of modern nrichinery is not profitable
'because of the very low price of labor. But a cotton picker would give an
advantage, within the cotton belt, to areas of level land, and to those where
the management of the lund could be readily consolidated, into large units,
The mechanization of cotton production would be likely to lead to notable regional
shifts in production, and to serious social problems, as well as to raise new
problems of land utilization.

Wheat The wheat regions of the Northwest and the Southwest likewise
have advantage in climate or soil conditions over iIost other wheat exporting
regions of the world, but they also have economic disadvantages. The natural
advantages are less frequency of frost than the prairie provinces of Canada,
less danger of drought than in most of southern Bussia and of Australia. But
in much of Argentina and of the Danube Valley climatic conditions are probably
as favorable a in the United States. The disadvantages of the wheat belt
of the United States are generally higher taxation, higher wage rates, and higher
transportation costs to tidewater, with the possible exception of the Canadian
region.


*






13.


But these natural and economic factors, which in the past tended Ito
balance, so that all these countries continued to export their surplus of wheat,
have now been eclipsed by political factors. Tariffs, quotas or other restrict-
ions have been placed upon i.nports of wheat by practically every, European
country, and in several countries these regulations have been supplemented by
governmental aids to the wiheat industry. Because of tnese barriers, and because
of the higher prices for w-eat in the United St.-.tes than in other exporting
countries, the exports of waeat have sunk to an insignificant figure. During the
past year exports have been almost entirely from the P cific Northwest, and
these'have been made only as a result of special export .'idi'.

Looking to the future, it is well to recall that the European barriers
upon wheat imports have been erected to protect the farmers in these countries,
and where the farmers constitute only a minority of the population, the govern-
meits are, nevertheless, profoundly concerned over the welfare of the farming
class. The peasants are recognized as a bulwark of the State, They are provid-
irng far more than their snr.re of the citizens and soldiers of the future, and
should war come they must also be depended on to provide the needed food.
:-Ioreover, the population of Germaa.y and France will cer.se to increase probably
within i few years, unless Itali:-.n.s and other fecuid peoples move'into these
countries in unprecedented nu.i'uers, and in Great Briti:-n a stationary popula-
tion will be reached in all likelihood within five years. By 1950 the popula-
tion of Great Britian will have fallen probably a half million below the peak
and by 1960 two million or more below. Similar declines may be expected in
Germany and France, and later in all the countries of NIorthwestern Europe, except
possibly, in the Netherlands a-.d Denmark. 'A declining population is likely to
mean a declining consumption of wheat unless there is a continued shift from rje
to wheat. A development .-nich has occurred in sevgr?.l 'Europe-an countries. Even
should nationalistic policies in northwestern Europe be modifiedd gradually,
declining population, supplemented probably by advancing agricultural technique,
seems likely to diminish the ,eed for imported wheat. Exports of wheat from
the United States have been oni very low levels during the past two years and the
prospect for recovery of tae predepression levels is not bright,

Moreover, although the population of the United States will continue to
increase for sometime, this increase is likely to be less than 10 percent at the
maximum, and there may follow a decline in population. The exports of wheat
during the decade prior to the depression ranged from 13 to 37 percent of the pro-
duction, the lower proportions being in the later years, when population was
larger. At the 1925 '32 level of cousumption (disappear,-mce) per person and
acre-yields the nation will need for domestic use about 48,000,000 acres of
wheat by 1949, and 50,000,000 acres by 1950. In 1931, and also in 1932, about
60,000,000 acres were harvested, but in 1933, a season of severe drought, only
50,000,000 acres. FurthermLore, La rise in the quality of the diet, as previously
noted, seems likely to result in a smaller per capital consumption of wheat.
So long as exports remain at their present low level, there appears likely to
be a real and.more or less persistent surplus in acreage of wheat, unless
measures of control are continued. The problem of shifting from wheat to other
uses of the land seems likely to remain acute along the arid margin of the wheat
belt particularly.

Corn and OLags Let us now turn to the corn belt, that great food-producing
region which extends from central Ohio to western Nebraska, stretching north-
ward into Minnesota and southward across much of Missouri. WYowhere else in
the world is-there a contiguous area of such magnitude so fertile and so
productive of cereals. Corn by nature is a very productive crop, yielding about
twice as much food per acre as wheat or oats, and tae physical conditions in the






14.


corn belt are peculiarly favorable for the production of corn. The summer
rainfall of the humid tropics is combined with a soil whose fertility is locked
up by its frozen condition during rmach of the winter. And not only. is there the
summer rainfall of the tropics, but. also the high summer temperatures, so
favorable to the growth of corn. The underlying rock in the eastern portion is
limestone in large areas, and limestone characteristically produces a- fertile
soil; while in the western portion the extensive wind-blown soils derived in large
part from the more arid regions to the west, are also generally rich in lime.
Moreover, the soils of most of the eastern corn belt were rejuvenated a few
thousand years ago bhy the glaciers that extended far south in this region. These
glaciers ground off portions of the underlying rock and brought this unleached
material, with its high content of lime, phosphorus, and potash, to the surface,
This fertility has been preserved over much of the corn belt by the grass
vegetation, for just as forests tend to promote the leaching of the lime, potash
and nitrogen out of the soil by the rains, so do grass roots tend to raise these
elements of fertility to the surface. Nowhere else than in the central corn
belt is a humid climate combined with a grassland soil, except for a small area
in Argentina. The United States produces from half to two-thirds of the corn
crop of the world, and nearly two-thirds of the corn crop of the United States
is produced in the corn belt.

The corn belt has appropriately been called the heart of American agri-
culture. Into it flow the stocker and feedecattle from the West for fattening,
to supplement its home grown stock, and out of it flow more than two-thirds of
the Leef and pork consumed in the eastern, northern, and to a lesser extent,
southeastern sections of the country. It supplies, moreover, most of the exports
of pork and lard, and, in addition, ships corn and hay in vast quantities to the
eastern and southern markets. Although -the corn belt includes only S percent of
the land area of the United States, it possesses over a fourth of the cattle,
about a third of the horses, and over half of the hogs of the Nation. It has
long been the great surplus meat producing region, and has now become a great
surplus milk producing region as well.

Of the production of animal products in the corn belt a very rough estimate
indicates that eight to Len percent was sent abroad during the 5 years prior to
the depression, mostly in the form of pork and lard. In 1932 and 1933 those
exports averaged about one-third less. But, as with wheat, tariffs and other
restrictions, especially quotas, are interfering with exports of pork and lard.
The restrictions have not yet become prohibitive, except in Germany, but the
trend is toward higher barriers. Deep concern is felt at present over trends
in Great Britian, which is the most important market for American hams and
baconii, because of. quota restrictions. Exports from the United States at present
are restricted to between 7 and S percent of the total.British imports from
foreign sources of supply, whilich in terms of American productiQn is an insignifi-
cant a&oumt. The future of our exports of animal products is uncertain, but
the trend is not encouraging.

We should not forget, however, that the population of the nation is still
increasing. This increase is very liekly to be fully 3 percent, possibly 4
percent b., 1940, and perhaps as much more by 1950. If per capital consumption of
pork and lard during recent years persists, the present production will be no
more than sufficient to supply domestic needs in about a decade. Meanwhile,
the decrease in exports of these products is raising serious problems,of
land utilization in the corn belt. However, some consolation may be found in
the fact that a reduction in the acreage of corn, the cultivation of which
facilitates erosion, will tend to conserve the fertility of the soil. There is
little doubt that in much of the corn belt the proportion of the crop land in





15.


corn is too great from the standpoint of a permanent agriculture.

Considering the net exports of farm products as a whole, it appears that
about 44,00,O000 acres of crop land are now required to produce these exports,
whereas during the five years prior to the depression, about r0,000,000 acres
were so used. (Figure 12). This includes an allowance of nearly 20 percent
for crop feed consumed by horses and mules used in producing, the exports.
If such by-products as mill feed and cotton seed that remain in the United
States are allowed for, these figures should be reduced by about 5,0C00,000
acres. The lost export market involves the product, of about 16,000,C000 acre3
of crop land. However, most of this decline occurred prior to the depression.
The decline in acreage required to produce the exports. has been only about
10 percent since 1930, and for the fiscal -'ear, 1932-1933, the acreage was
about the same as in the previous year. This tapering off in the decline,
taken in connection with the fact that cotton now constitutes nearly three-
fourths of tnis acreage, sug ests that a new level of exports may be about
reached. .


Let us now suammarize as to the prospect for consumption of farm products:

1. The population of the nation will increase at least 3,000,000,
possibly 5,000,000 by 1940, and as much more, probably, by 1950.
This means that, if other factors remained equal, from 9,000,000
to 15,000,000 wore acres of crops will be needed by 1940, and
18,000,000 to 30,000,000 acres more by 1950. But other factors
may not remain equal. An acreage much greater than this might
readily be released by a lowering of the standard of living, and
in other ways. On the other hand, tne use of more meat and milk
in the diet would increase the need for land.

2. But the consumption of farm products per person has changed very
little in tae ag-regate for 30 years, as measured in land require-
ments; although notable shifts have occurred in diet, and doubtless
will continue -to occur. In particular, the increase in consumption
of beer and decrease in number of children suggests a lesser demand
for milk, unless the great value of milk as a food for adults, as well
as children, can be further impressed upon the people. But consider-
ing the consumption of farm products as a whole, the best guess
appears to be that tLiere, will be no notable change in the national
per capital acreage requirement.

3. For exports, likewise, it now seems probably that there will be
no iiotablo further change in a6gregate acreage required for their
production. But the decline in exports of wheat and pork products
suggests the need for a permanent contraction ii wheat acreage
and for a shift ten:porar'ily of several million acres from corn to
other crops or pastarage.

However, before reaching a definite conclusion in this matter of
adjustments in acreage of wneat and corn, or that the increase of population
will require a few more million acres of crops by 1940 and still more by
1950., it is necessary to consider the prospect for agricultural production
per acre. Without any increase in acreage or acre-yields of the crops
agricultural production increased about 20 percent during the decade preceding
the economic depression. This great increase ini production per acre was
moving largely to changes in agricultural technique, and shifts in the
relative importance of the crops and livestock. These production factors,
also the decline in the soil resources of tne nation, we will consider this
afternoon.





16.


PART II. THE PROSPECT FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

May I call your attention to Figure 13. It shows the percentage change
since the beginning of tne century (1) in the population of the nation,'(2)
in agricultural production, (3) in acreage of the crops harvested, and (4)
in quantity of labor employed inr agriculture. Population has increased about
two-thirds since the beginning of the century, agricultural production about
one-nalf, crop acreage about one-quarter, and total lacor in agriculture
aoout one-tenth. Although population has increased more than agricultural'
production, consumption of farm products per person has not declined, because
more of the production is consumed at home and less is exported abroad. At
the beginning of the century the farm products exported required for their
production nearly one-fourth of the total crop acreage, whereas during the
last five years only about one-eig6ntn has been required.

But it is not this relation of agricultural production to population
that we wish to consider tnis afternoon. We discussed this relation briefly
this morning. Instead, let us consider tne relation of ajTicultural product-
ion to crop acreage, also the relation of the future need for farm land to the
national program of land utilization that is now developing.

Agricultural Production Per Acre

You will note in the graph that the line representing agricultural pro-
duction aaid tnat representing crop acreage did not get far apart dntil after
the world war. Comparing the average production during the period 1917-1921,
inclusive, with that during tne period 1927-1931, it appears that the increase
during6 the decade was about 20 percent. This increase occurred despite a
stationary acreage of the crops. Moreover, the yields per acre of the crops,
taken as a whole, remained stationary or declined slightly. How was it possible
to have a 20 percent increase in agricultural production, despite a stationary
crop acreage and a stationary or slightly declining acre-yield? If length and
breadth and height remained the same, how could there be an increase in volume?
It is because agriculture, like modern physics, has a fourth dimension, indeed,
it has a fifth, a sixth and a seventh dimension.

Factors Affecting Production Per Acre

Tne increase in agricultural production per acre since the world war is
owing almost wholly to four factors, which were of scarcely any importance
in pre-war years.

Declilie in Horses and aules The most important of these factors has
been tne substitution of gasoline for .horse feed. There are two final con-
sumers, so to speak, of farm products, human beings and horses or mules.
All other consumers, such as cattle, swine, sheep and chickens, are intermediate
to human consumption. At the close of the world war there were about 29,000,000
horses ald mules in the United States, including over 2,000,000 in cities. These
horses and.rnules consumed the products of about 90,000,000 acres of crop
land, besides much pasturage. On January 1, 19314, there were only about
17,000,000 horses and mules in tne nation. This decrease of 12,000,000 horses
and mules has released tne products of about 37.000,000 acres of crop land.
Moreover, the decrease in horses and L.ules was greatest in the richest agri-
cultural regions, notably in the corn belt and in the southern portion of the
hay and dairy region. (Figure 14). Most of these 37,000,000 acres, more or
less, are now being used for the production of meat and milk,






17.

This release of land for other uses mast continue for several years at
least, because the number of colts born in recent years is only about half
sufficient to replace the horses and mules that are dyin.ig annually. However,
interest in raising colts is increasing. The number of horse colts born in
1933 was about 16 percent larger than in 1932, ana of mule colts about 10 percent
larger. When births of colts will equal deaths of horses and mules no one can
foresee,'but it seems unlikely to occur before 1940. iioreover, it is well to
recall that improvements in tractors and tractor machinery will almost certaiflly
continue to be made, whereas improvements in horses and mules as sources of
power Will make slow or no progress. The use of the Diesel engine in tractors
gives promise of reducing the cost of operation, while the placing of pneumatic
tires on tractors has apparently increased their efficiency as well as the
comfort of operation. Furthermore, if the attitude of youniig people at present
is indicative of what it will be in later life, it appears that comfort and
speed will be esteemed fully as muchas economy. By 1940 it appears probable
that between 5,000,000 and 10,000,000 acres more of crop land will be released
for other uses by the decline in horses and mules.

Shifts from the Less Productive to the More Productive Crops per Acre -
The second most important factor, apparently, in causing an increased pro-
duction on a stationary crop acreage was the shift from the less productive
to the uiore productive crops per acre, notably from corn to cotton in the
South prior to the depression, from wheat toward corn in southern Minnesota,
the Dakotas and eastern Kansas, ai-.d from grain and hay to fruits and vegetables
in California and elsewhere. Apparently this shiift resulted in increaEing
crop production by the equivalent of about 14,000,000 acres of crop land.

During the depression the trend of cotton acreage has been downward,
while that of corn in most of the cotton belt has been upward. This trend
in cotton has now been accelerated by the AAA control program. Likewise
in the wheat belt, the trend of acreage has been downward, and probably more
wneat land has reverted to pasture or lies idle tnan has been put into corn
or otner productive crops. This trend also has been accelerated by the
governmental control program. In the corn belt the acreage of corn reached a
maximum in 1932 and declined in 1933. The corn and hog program will almost
certainly cause a further decline in 1934.

It is interesting to note that shifting the use of land from the more
productive crops to the less productive pasture or cover crops has been the
principal means adopted by tne Aricultural Adjustment Administration in
restricting production. For this reason it is difficult to forecast the
future with reference to the influence of this factor upoiasricultural pro-
duction per acre. In 1934, however, the 14,000.000 acres, more or less,
that were gained during the decade following the world war will undoubtedly be
lost, and, perhaps, as mucn more. It is my opinion that thiis is a trend which
should be encouraged. In particular, cultivated fields that are eroding .
badly? should be put into pasture or forest. But to do this will in many
cases involve purchase by or other assistance from the government.

Shifts from the Less Productive to the More Productive Classes.of Farm
Animals per Unit of Feed Consumed Likewise there was a shift during the
period between the world war aid.' the economic depression from the less pro-
ductive classes of food-producing animals toward the more productive classes,
principally from beef cattle toward dairy cattle, hogs and poultry (Figure 15)
The-graph used this morning, you will. recall, indicated that it requires the
products.of over 11 acres of crop land, besides much pasture, fed to beef
cattle to produce as much human food, measured in calories, as 2-1/3 acres




1S.


of crop land nnd 1-2/3 acres of pasture used to feed dairy cows, or 3.1 acres
of crop land used to feed hogs. You will also recall that the consumption
of beef per person declined after the world war, and was only about SO percent
of tne prewor level during the years 1928 to 1932, while the per capital con-
sumption of pork rose 15 to 20 percent above the prewar level, and of milk
slowly increased to about 30 percent above that level by 1931. This shift
toward the more productive classes of farm animals per unit of feed consumed
was equivalent, apparently, to the production of about 9,000,000 acres of
crop land.

The future influence of this factor of shifts in relative, importance o". the
animal products is also difficult to forecast, for it depends largely on changes
that may occur in the diet of the people. However, it should be noted that we
appear to be one year along in the upward trend of the beef consumption- cycle,
while consumption of milk per capital has declined, probably owing in part to the
increasing use of beer. This situation suggests a reversal in the influence
of this factor, so far as cattle are concerned.

Increased Production of ,Ieat and Milk per Unit of Feed Consumed Within
Each Class of Farm Animals Lastly there remains to be noted the improvements
that have occurred in the efficiency of use of feed, particularly by dairy cows,
by hogs, and by poultry. Since the world war there has been an increase,
apparently, in production of milk per cow approaching 20 percent. The better
cows eat more, but it is doubtful if they eat 12 percent more, on the average.
The cow testing associations are, apparently, attaining their objectives.
Likewise with hogs, during the past four years the estimated number of hogs on
farms January 1st averaged about 7 percent less than during the four years
following the world war, whereas- the production of pork and lard was nearly 20.
percent greater. Better sanitation is resulting in larger litters being raised
and the feed formerly lost in the dead pigs now goes to .market in live hogs.
Improvements in feeding practices, particularly the use of minerals and legumes,
has also resulted in economy in use of feed. It may be roughly estimated that the
equivalent of at least 5,000,000 acres of crop land were contributed to agricul-
tural production since the world war by improvements in animal husbandry..

Here again it is hazardous to forecast the future, but it is perfectly
safe to say that there is a wide marginn remaining for further improvement. Cow
testing association records indicate that the greatest production of milk per
unit of feed consumed is attained in herds averaging 10,000 and 12,000 pounds
of milk yearly per cow. Even at the rapid rate of increase in production per
cow since th'e world war, it will require nearly a century to attain a level
of 10,000 pounds per cow.

The Four Factors Considered as a Whole These four means of increasing
agricultural production, substitution of gasoline for horse feed, shifts.
from the leis productive to the more productive crops pler acre, shifts from
the less productive to the more productive animals per unit of .feed consumed,, and,
finally, increasing efficiency in use of feed. by each class of farm animals,
achieved principally by breeding and selection increased agricultural pro-.
duction by the equivalent of about 50,000,000 acres during the decade following
the world war. Adding the 16,000,000 acres, more or less, released for home
consumption by the decline in exports, it appears that the increase of farm
products thus made available for domestic consumption was equivalent to the
production of about 66,000,000ooo acres of crop land. On the otner side of the
ledger there is, first, the increase in population of 17,000,000, with a conse-
quent increase in need for crop land of 50,000,000 acres.; secondly, the
improvement in diet, notably more milk and pork, that required the products of
about 13,000,000 more acres than would have been required by the prewar diet;
and, thirdly, a slight decrease in acre-yields of the crops.









Looking to the future, it sepins reasonable to expect that at least
5,000,000 acres more will be released before 1910 by the further decline in
horses and mules, and presumably the improvements in animal husbandry will con-
tinue and release a few million more'acres by 194O. On the other hand, partly
as a result of governmental effort, there is now a notable shift from the
more productive crops toward the less productive crops or Lo pasture, and in
view of the prospect for milk consumption and the upward trend of the beef
consumption cycle a retreat toward the less efficient farm anii.ials in the
transformation of feed into human food appears probable. O0 thle whole, perhaps
the best guess at present is tiat these four factors, all of which operated
to increase production for a decade or more after the world war, will counter-
balance each other during the next fews years. It seems likely tnat the major
changes in production which may occur will be accomplished mostly by mecins of
the old factors that were so effective prior to the world war, namel;, acreage
in crops and yield per acre.

The prospect for Crop Yields per Acre The acre-yield of thie crops, taken
as a whole, after remaining almost stationary for a decade nrior to the close
of the world war, decreased slightly during the decade following tne war.
(Figure lC). In this past season 1'33, the acre-yields of wheat were lower
than in ,any other year since 193, of corn than in any year since 1901, except
1913 and 1530, and of oats the acre-yield was tne lowest on record. This was
owing primarily to drought of extr'Lordin:try extent and severity, but weather
conditions appear scarcely adequate to explain the downward trend in acre-
yields, principally of corn, oats, rye a-nd the grain zorghums, during the
past decade or longer. 6/ Apparently, the depletion of soil fertility by erosion
and crop removal, accompanied by a decline in the organic content of the soil
in many parts of the United States, has proven as potent in affecting the
average crop yield for the country as a whole as all the iinproveinents in agri-
cultural technique, including the use of artificial fertilizers. However,
the use of fertilizer has declined during the depression. The forces of the
research and extension services, plus the powerful aid of the agricultural
press, have only counterbalanced the forces tending toward depletion of soil
fertility during the past quarter century.

Looking to the future, it is not certain that the farmers, with the aid
of the various agencies, will be even as successful as in the past in counter-
acting the effects of soil depletion upon acre-yields of the crops, consider-
ing the national as a whole, unless higher prices of farm products permit ex-
tensive use of fertilizer on the less erosive lands, for the depletion of soil
fertility by erosion i5 advancing at an accelerating rate. The Secretary of
Agriculture in his recent annual report makes the following statement:

"Unrestrained soil erosion is rapidly building a wilderness of worn-out
land in the United States. The wastage speeds up with the removal of the
absorptive top soil down to the less absorptive, more erosive subsoil. Approxi-
mate'ly 35,000,00 acres of formerly cultivated land have been essentially
destroyed for crop production; 1OOU,O000 acres of land now in crops nave lost

6 It is interesting to observe that-the acre-yields' of wheat and cotton,
the two crops which have expanded notably into the drier portions of the
Great Plains, show no decline in national acre-yield, but, rather, a slight
upward trend prior to 1932. Apparently, the more fertile soil in the case
of wheat, and both better soil and greater freedom from injury by the boll-
weevil in the case of cotton, have fully counterbalanced the- frequently deficient
moisture in the Great Plains region.


19.







20.


all or most of the topsoil; 125,000,000 acres of land now in crops are rapidly
losing topsoil; and an additional area is suffering from erosion in some degree."

These figures indicate that an area equal to nearly one-tenth the present
crop area of the United States has been- destroyed by erosion, about one-quarter
of the present crop land has lost all or most of the top soil, while a third
is rapidly losing its topsoil. Erosion has been most severe in the South,
owing in part to the fact that the two dominant crops, cotton and corn, are
intertilled, wnich results not only in exposure of the soil to the rain and
wind during most of the season, but also in lowering the organic matter in
the soil, and organic matter is very important in retarding erosion. (Figure 17)
In Addition, the rainfall is heavier in the south than in the north, and as the
soil is not frozen, nor covered with snow during most of the winter, erosion
can occur throughout the year.

In Oklahoma a recent survey revealed tnat of tne 16,000,000 acres of crop
land (including land which was formerly in crops) nearly 6,000,000 acres had
reached tne stage of gullying, and that about 1,400,000 acres nad been abandoned
largely because of erosion._j/ There was a decrease of over 10,000 farms in
south central and southeastern Oklahona between 1920 and 1930, and of'almost
as many more in north central and northeastern Texas, where erosion is also
becoiiin; severe. It is the opinion of the Experiment Station workers in Oklahoma
that fully two-tnirds of the erosion : losses in this State hive occurred during
tne last ten ye'urs. In the Piedmont of Georgia and the Carolinas erosion has
been in progress for a much longer period. Dr. Bennett, of 'the Bureau of
Chemistry and Soils, states that "probably not less than 60 percent of the upland
.. ias lost from 4 to IS inches of its soil and subsoil (and) many of
tiie gullies have cut down to bed rock. S/ In the Georgia and South Carolina
portions of the Piedmont area depletioin of soil fertility, in association with
the advance of the boll-weevil and other factors, nas exerted a devastating
effect. The number of farms in the area decreased 50,000 between 1920 and 1930O
In some counties nearly half the farm population migrated to the cities or
other parts of the nation. Undoubtedly erosion was a factor also in inducing
migration in mrucn of Nortn Carolina and Virginia, in Kentucky, Tennessee, and
Arkansas, and even in parts of Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois. In
Illinois there :Lre r..t least 9,000,000 acres of low value laad subject to
serious erosion, more than one-half of which is hardly suitable for cultivated
crops, and tnere are more than l4,O00,00 acres of high value land in which
erosion is gradually approaching a stage where gullies are being formed 9/

At the Missouri Agricultural Thxperiment Station measurements on a
gently sloping field, typical of the soil and slope of rauch of the northern
portion of the state, show a loss of over 2145 tons of soil per acre con-
tinuously in corrn during the 12 years the experiment has been in progress,
111 t~ns from land continuously in wheat, but of only 35 tons from land in a
rotation of corn, wheat and clover, indicating that the surface soil, averaging
seven inches deep, will last for 50 to 350 years, depending upon the cropping

7/ Soil Erosion Survey of Oklahoma, Exte.sion Service, Agricultural and
Mechanical Arts College, Stillwater, 1929, p. 2. The survey was made by the
Experiment Station.

g/ Bennett, K. H., in "Documentary Material for the Inter-American Conference
in Agriculture, Forestry and Animal Husbandry, "Oct. 1930, p.S1.

97 Mumford, H. W., Director of Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station,
in a letter to the Secretary of Agriculture.




21.


system. If put into blue-grass pasture it would require 2, U'O ,years to remove
the top seven inches of soil, whicn may be no more rapid than the process of
soil development. It is estimated that "about one-fourth of tnc surface area
of Missouri is subject to severe erosion, that one-fourth is subject to moderate
erosion, and about one-half to light or negligible erosion." 10/

In the northeastern states, crop removal arnd leaching have reduced the
fertility of millions of acres, particularly of land that has produced timothy
hay for shipment to city markets. Reduction in soil fertility doubtless has
been a factor in promoting migration from farms in these states. On tne other
hand, the development of dairyiiig and egg production, and the importation of
large quantities of mill feed, grain, and hay from the West for the cows and
chickens; has doubtless resulted in improving the soil on many dairy and
poultry farms. A vast transfer of the elements of soil fertility from the
wheat regions and the porn belt to the dairy farms of the northeastern states
is in progress. However, in the humid northern states, considered as a whole,
the losses from the'surface soil since settlement average possibly a third of
the original sulphur, a fourth of tne nitrogen, a fifth of the phosphorous
and a tenth of the potassium. lI/ Calcium and magnesium losses have been notable
in many soils. The losses by crop rencval and leaching can be restored Lnd
maintained almost indefinitely, however, if it is found orofitable to do so,
for the known deposits of minerals containing these elements seem sufficient
for centuries to come. But during the next decade, owing to erosion losses
and to the probability that the extensive use of fertilizer will come slowly,
it seemas likely that acre-yields of the crops, taken as a whole, will continue
to decline slowly.

Declining, Agricultural Production In this connection, it is worth noting
that since 1926 the trend of agricultural production also ihas ceen downward.
The year 1927 was rather wet, 1923 was a good year, almost as 6ood as 19-26
but the season of 1929 was very dry in much of the nation. In 1930 agricultural
production remained low, but a notable recovery occurred in 1931. Iln 197,
however, production fell much lower th-an in 1927 or 1930; and during this past
season, 1933, the production of wheat, also of oats, has been lower than in any
year since 1S96, when the population of the nation was only 57 percent that at
present; the production of corn has been lower than in any year since liO1,
with the exception of 1930, arnd the production of hay has been less than in any
year since 1913, except 1930. This very low production of these major crops
is owing primarily to weather conditions; but it seems probable that the depletion
of soil fertility by erosion; by reduction of the hu.m-us content of the soil,
and by the removal of a considerable proportion of the elements of fertility in
the soil, particularly phosphorus, ii the crops, the milk *id the livestock
sold, is slowly but surely affecting the agricultural production of the nation.
Another factor may be the depletion of the farmers' capital, particularly the
poor condition of the machinery and the decrease in use of colmnercial fertilizers.

10 Miller, P. F., Professor of Soils, in a letter to the writer. See also
Missouri Agricultural Experiment Station, Research Bulletin No. 63, p. 31, and
Progress Reports of "Soil Erosion and Run Off Experiments in Piedmont,
Nortn Caroliua, "by F. 0. Bartel, Mimeographed by U. S. Bureau of Agricultural
Engineering.

l_/ This is n audacious generalization. It is based, for sulphur, in part
on a paper entitled "Agricultural Aspects of Sulphur and Sulpnur Compounds,"
by J. G. Lipman and H. G. McLean, Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering,
vol. 38, no. 7, July, 1931; for nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium on anal-
yses of cropped and adjacent virgin soils of the same type, supplemented oy
data in a paper by Dr. Lipman entitled "The Nitrogen Outlook,P Journal of the
American Society of Agronomy, vol. 24, no. 3, PP. 227-237, 1932; and for
potassium by lysimeter (leaching) measurements at Cornell University.







22.


The Future Need for Farm Land

Of all the factors that influence the future need for farm land only one-
can be forecast with any precision, namely, the population of the Nation. It
is practically certain that between now (February 1934) and- January 1, 1940,
the increase of population will be 3,000,000 to 5,000,000 and between 1940 and
1950 it may increase by as LIucn more. At 3 acres of crops harvested per person
this means that 9,000,000 to 15,000,000 more acres of crops will be needed by
1940 tnd 1,000,000 to 30,000,000 acres by 1950, other factors remaining equal.-
If the diet should shift from animal products toward more cereals or sugar, or
if the exports of farm products should decline further, less land would be
needed. i-owever, per capital consurmpion of farm products, considered as a
whole has changed very little during a third of a century, and it appears that
a new level in exports of farm products has almost been reached. Considering
changes in technique of production, it seems very probable that the number of
horses and mules will decline for at-least several years to come, but the land
thus released may be counterbalanced by shifts from the more productive toward
the less productive crops per acre, under the surplus control program, and the
reversion of some crop land to pasture. It is certain that the soil resources
of the Nation are being depleted rapidly, particularly by erosion, but this
may be partially counterbalanced by the use of fertilizers.

On the whole, it appears probable that by 1940 several million more acres
of crop land would be needed to supply the American people with their present
per capital consumption of farm products and maintain the present exports of cotton.
But the present per capital consumption may not be maintained and a shift back
may occur toward the more productive crops per acre, or tLie more productive
livestock per unit of feed consumed, though this is less likely. Moreover,
this estimate is a net figure for the nation as a whole. Many millions of acres
of land doubtless will 'go out of use for crops in certain regions, and many
millions of acres come into use for crops in other regions. Between 1920 and
1930 the decrease in area of harvested crops exceeded 32,000,000 acres in 1,940
counties reporting a decrease, located mostly in the originally forested
eastern and southern portion of the United States. The outstanding decrease
was in the Piedi..ont of Georgia and South Carolina and in a belt extending
from southern New England across iJew York, southern Michigan, Ohio, southern
Indiana and Illinois and most of Ke.tucky and Missouri, toeastern Oklahoma
and central Texas. (Figure 18) Part of this land is used for pasture,
part lies idle, and part is growing up to brush. The soils in these areas, are,
in general, poor or fair, but some are good. Much of the land is hilly or
steeply rolling, and erosion h-,s taken a heavy toll. These conditions, as well
as the fact that many of the farms are small, has resulted in systems of farming
poorly adapted to large scale machi:,ery. And, where agriculture is dependent on
hand labor, there is generally small production per worker.

During the same -decade an increase of crop land exceeding 33,000,000 acres
occurred in 1,130 counties reporting an increase, located mostly in the Great
Plains region. (Figure 19). Despite the frequency of severe drought, the suit-
ability of the l.,.d, of the crops yrown, ;and of the large-sized farms in the
Great Plaias to the use of power machinery made agriculture profitable. But the
very low prices for grain in recei-t years have Drought acute distress to this
region also.





23.


Tae "Subi.,'argi1111" Land Prog-ram

The proposal to purchase 40,000,000 acres of poor land, sometimes called
submarginal land, is, therefore, in accord with tiie trend during the decade
1920 1930. I believe in the poor or subilarinrial land program for three reasons:

First, because there are millions of farm people who have 'not enough to
eat. They live, but at a loi. level of health and efficiency. Tney have not
enough because the land will not produce it. Sivice there is so much land in
the nation of better quality, I believe in providing those people who give pro-
mise of being successful on betLer land an opportunity of relocating on such
land, even if it should mean an increase in agricultural production, and even if it
should mean a decrease in agricultural efficiency, when tnd people on the good
land alone are considered. In case of cci.flict, social necessity must take
precedence over economic efficiency. (Fiuire 20)

However, the movement of farmers from poor land to better la.d may not always
involve an increase in commercial production of farm products. In central
Georgia, for example, where one of tne first projects of this character is being
developed, the plan provides for givin6 farmers now producing; cotton on small
patches of sandy soils an opportunity of moving onto heavier soils in the same
county. These heavier soils prior to the coming of the boll weevil were con-
sidered the best in the coau.ty, but r.s cotton matured very late on these soils
they were abandoned because of tne repeated destruction of the crop by the
weevil. These heavier soils are better suited to general fanrring than the
lighter soils, and the plan is toexcouiate cotton farmers to become general
farmer's, who will grow much of t ie food tney need.. It is probable that the
only way many of the farmers of the South will nave the milk, the eggs and the
fresh vegetables which they and their fjr.milies so urgently need, is by producing
these foods on their farms. Tnis Georgia project is a good example of the
possibilities, whica, no doubt, exist in many otner places, of raising the
standard of living of farmers without increasing tne commercial production of farm
products. It is probable tnat the 'sub-division of large commercial farms on
good land -and the location on these smaller farms of a number of, partially self-
sufficing farmers from poor land would, in some cases, have simil,-r effects.

Although it is possible in some cases to move farmers from poor land onto
good land, where large fanrms havebeen subdivided, without increasing comniertial
production, a study of the census data on type of farms and value of products
indicates that, in general, commercial production would be increased. (Figure 21).
This conclusion is confirmed by experience in eastern Gerimany, where the sub-
division of large estates into peasant farms has almost doubled production
per acre, the peasants commonly superposing live stock enterprises on the
already existing grain growing; system of farming. But such an increase of pro-
duction in the United States is unlikely, except in tnose cases where cash
grain farms may be transformed into dairy or other intensive types of agriculture.

The basic issue, however, in my opinion, relates to population rather than
surplus production. There are nine percent fewer children under 5 years of age
in the United States now than when the census wastaken four years rgo. Such a
decline cannot continue long without awakening the people of the United States to
a realization that the nation mast conserve its human resources, particularly
the people on the land. :.Moreover, since the birthrate is about twice as high
among the farm population as it is among the dwellers in large cities, and since, in
general, like produces like, a major objective of national policy should be, in
my opinion, to preserve not only the quantity, but also the quality, that is,
the inherent intelligence and ability, of the farm population.






24.


The future belongs to the children on the farms. The children of the
city-born are less numerous than their parents, whereas the children in the
farm population are more numerous than their parents. If the existing ratio
or urban to rural reproduction remains, and even if it be considerably altered,
it is clear that within a few generations the present urban population will be
represented by only a remnant, and provided immigration does not become heavy,
the population of the nation will consist largely of the descendants of the
farmers and farm women of today.

The sub-marginal land program deserves support, secondly, because it will
conserve natural as well as human resources. There are millions of acres of
farm land eroding away, and tne plight of the people on these lands is likely
to go from bad to worse. These lands are now producing misery for many people,
They can be made to produce happiness for fewer people by converting them into
forests or pastures. And wilereas the present crop production is transitory,
the future forest and pasture production can be permanent. The individual
may consider only the present, but the nation must consider the future. The
individual may consider only his farm, but the nation or the state must consider
the land farther down stream that may be covered by the wash from the eroding
fields, also the rivers that may silt up and impede navigation, and the levees
that may need to be built to prevent damage by the flood waters from eroded
lands.

I hope that the poor land program may be concentrated at first largely on
areas where soil erosion is severe, for in such areas a double objective could
be attained, the salvation of the people and the conservation of the land.

Thirdly, the poor land program will in many places help to reduce taxation.
In the northern portions of the Lake States particularly, settlers have been
located on the cut-over and sandy lands many miles from the nearest school.
Sometimes a road and a school have to be maintained for a single family at a
cost iianay times greater than the taxes they pay. This is an abuse of a well-
intentioned and wise State provision for tne education of every citizen. Such
people in Wisconsin are being given the opportunity of moving onto better
laid near established villages or settlements with the aid of an allotment from
the Subsistence Homesteads Division.

The Subsistence Homesteads Program

The Subsistence Homesteads policy also deserves support because it will
benefit, in my opinion, both city people and farmers, but farmers more than
city people. There are nearly three million young people held back on farms,
who would under predepression conditions nave gone to the cities. Some will
go to the cities, undoubtedly, as-prosperity returns; but prosperity, in my
opinion, will not create jobs as rapidly in the future as in the past. It
seems probable to me that, if the subsistence homesteads movement continues,
the homesteads will be eventually occupied largely by young people from the farms.
Owing to progress in technique, the number of persons engaged in manufacturing
and mechanical pursuits was decreasing for nearly a decade prior to the
depression, as noted this morning, and this decrease is likely to continue.
More and more city people have had to resort to selling something. The propor-
tion of the population engaged in trade and commerce doubled in the 20 years be-
tween 1910 and 1930, and it is very doubtful if the per capital consumption of
goods increased nearly as much. But the cost of distribution, apparently, is
becoming greater for many commodities than the traffic will bear. For example,
a friend in the Department of Asriculture who owns a farm some distance out of
Was-iUegton takes enough of his wheat for his own use to a local mill near the






25.


farm and has it ground into flour. For 5 bushels of wheat he gets a barrel of
flour, whereas if he sold the wheat at the elevator it would require 10 bushels
of wheat to buy a barrel of flour at the retail store.

The subsistence homesteads, if they continue to be developed on a consider-
able scale, are likely in time to provide more homes for farmers sons than
they are for migrants.from the large cities,.secondly, because industries that
relocate in villages or small towns probably will employ mostly local labor.
Such labor will work for a lower wage than city labor. Moreover, many of the
employees who may move with the factory. from the-city will rnot v:ant to farm.
They will be accustomed to city ways and, in general, will be disinclined to
get up early in the morning to milk the cow, or work late at night weeding the
garden. Judging from the record of part-time farming in Los Angeles Countj,
Cal., the white collar workers will be more:attracted to such village or sub-
urban life than will the unskilled or semi-skilled laborers of the cities. And
of r.iese wnite collar workers the most successful in part-time farming are,
in general, those w:io iere brought up on farms.

Moreover, the great surplus of olC. o-eople is in the cities, and the
great surplus of yourng people is on the farms. It is y'ourin people mostly
who migrate, not old people. These young. people on the farms can migrate only
in three directions to the cities, to tne villages with or without part-time
farms, and to full-time fariia., Figration to the city has been retarded, by
the depression, and probably will continue to be retarded, though not to the
same degree. Moreover, if the farmer's children go to the city, the probability
is that tae family, if not the race, will slowly die out; and, as previously
noted, migration from the farins to tne cities will certainly hasten the decline
in the nation's population aud thereby tend to reduce the future market for
farm products. ,

Migration to the village or to so-called sub sistence: farms will tend to
increase agricultural production more tluan if these young people moved to the
cities, but less than if ta-ey. remaineca on the farms. i:iirration to the villages
is the only alternative, apparently, to an eventual decline in the national
population on the one land, or an immediate increase in number of full-time
farmers, on the other hand. These three millions of Loul. people held back
on farms by the depression will soon x'ant to establish homes of their own.
If there is no net migration from farms between 1930 and 19^40, that is,
if iiet migration from farms during tne. next six years balances the net migration
to farms during the past four years, there will be :-%bout 2,250,000 more males
on farms in 1940 than there were in 130; and if the sn.mc proportion of these
males are operating farms i., 1940 as in 1930, there will be over a million more
farms in the nation in 1940 thaii there were in 1930.

Those wno fear that the subsistence homestead program will increase agricul-
tural production should contemplate the alternatives, which are, in my opinion,
increased urbanization and natiozial depopulation, or greatly increased number
of farmers and decline in the rural sta:drd of living. A million more farmers
in the United States would i.eal.i n.ot only the subdivision of m-Vy large farms,
but also of many samll farms, A.ad rno reoccupation of iafiiy abai.doned farms,
especially in regions of poor soils r.,erL the birthrate usually is highest
and the number of young people is i..ost numerous. U-iless we are willing to
coniitemrplate with approval a rapidly declining national population, the alteraa-
tives to be considered are, apparently, i.ot whether twic shall haIve more or less
farraers, but whether we shall Lc.ve more full-time or Liort part-time farmers,






26.


My hope is that neither t;ie congestion of a peasant-like population on
thc land, nor migration of youi.g people to the cities, will develop extensively,
but t.iat, instead, decentralization of industry, and of corm..erce also to some
extent, associated with much p-.rt-tiz.ie faring, may increase rapidly. The vill-
ages, the suburbs :nd the si.all cities, with their more uniform distribution
of v;e-'.lth, more general :-ccumaulation of property, and their greater economic
security for the majority of the people, also their more nor,-i"l xavnner of
f:..iily life than in tne large cities, constitute, I believe, the hope of
tne feature. Whether this hope is realized, that the migration from the farms
may be mostly to the smaller places, will depend largely on where the young
people now on farms really prefer to live.

The Preservation of the Family

And where the young people prefer to live will determine, in my opinion,
the destiny of the Nation. For it is becoming clear that city life, under the
conditions of the modern eczno..lic system, is inducing a decline in both the
quantity and quality of the population. The smallest number of children to the
cities is found among the presLLt-aoly more inLelliGent and certainly more
ambitious classes the professional r,.en, business men, and those in clerical
occupations. It is to these wino are trying hardest to climb the ladder of
professional, economic, or social success, that children seem to be too heavy
a load to carry. To the farnme: a wife is definitely a partner in the business
enterprise, indeed, almost a necessity, while children can help with the farm
work from, perhaps, 10 years of are onward, and with the housework at an earlier
age; but in the urban occupations a wife is less closely identified with the
business operations, unless sue also works outside the home, while children
are often an economic liability. Moreover, as the family is weakened, so also is
the spirit of altruism and sense of moral responsibility. Back of the declining
birthrate lies, I believe, a decline in ethical ideals as well as religious
principles. Back of the economic crisis lies -. social crisis, and back of the
social crisis lies a moral crisis. The fundamental crisis today is the crisis
in character.

The restoration of the fa.aily as the fundamental institution of society,
the development of an econo.adc system which does not penalize parenthood,
tne establishment of a social cede which approves the self-sacrifice of parents
for the sake of children, and the revival of einphasis on the duty of the
individual to promote tne welfare of the nation and the race, are, in my. opinion,
essential to the preservation of our civilization. If the American people
continue in the .way they are going, there will be much less farm land needed
a century hence than is in use today.

In tis connection may I read an excerpt from a remarkable book, entitled,
"The tawn of Conscience" by Professor Breasted, of the University of Chicago,
the great authority on the a-rcheology and early history of Egypt. He writes:
i
"The surviving documents demonstrate historically that the thing which
was long called 'the moral consciousness of mankind' has grown up with each
generation out of the discipline a-d the emotions of family life, supplemented
by reflection and the teachiin, of experienced elders. The supreme values which
lie within the huma.Ln soul have therefore, as a matter of historical fact,
entered the world for the first time through the operation of those gentle
and e.inobling influences which touch us continually in our family life. Whether
in the beginning they were anywhere else out yond.-:r in this vast universe,
we shall never kaowv; but tney were not ar.ywhere here upon our globe until the
life of further, mother, aud children created them. It was tne sunshine and the






27.


atmosphere of the earliest numian ho.ies that created ideals of conduct and
revealed the beauty of self-forgetfulness.

"Bertrand Russell, in, nis latest book (Education 2nd Social Order)
espousiing the cause of comnuinistn, tclls us that the most important change
wnich coir.sur.ism would introduce is the abolition of t--e family, .and, throwing
hunan experience entirely overbo,--.rd, he advocates this cir..6e. Notwithstandi.,g
the revolt of the new generation, huranl experience cani-o be m.ii.:ihilated, nor
can the traits it has produced in us be obliterated or ign:orud. The young
people of today have indeed revolted against authority, "7hlether it be that of
the church or the mandate of Scripture. To invoke authority is alw.ys to
invite opposition, especially in the minds of youth. But the hu-,.an past shines
upon us like a great light, an.d there is no heed to invoke authority. If any
you.ig readers take up this book, I beg there. merely to con-euplate the facts of
huxaai experience now revealed to us in fuller measure thai. ever before. There
are other sources of reverence besides the declarations of Scripture of the
pronounicements of tue Church. ;,eie like William Morris a.:d '7alt T-hitmanr- have
loved and reverendedthe life of i.a. on earth, an.d have fouzi inspiration -nid
guidance in the contemplation of its relationships, There is okne suprci.io
human relationship, that wnich has cr..ated the none a-id i:,;.dc the family fireside
the source out of w.aic.i man's highest qualities have ,;r-,wn "up to transform
the world. As historical fact, it is to family life that we owe the greatest
debt which the mind of man can conceive. Tne echoes of our ownl past from
imme.aorial ages bid us unmistakably to venerate, to cnerish, and to preserve
a relationship to which the life of man oves this supreme debt," i9/

In Concl-ision

Now, a word in conclusion. Scie,,ce and invention nave transformed the
world. Consider the changes in agricultu'e, in indusry., in transportation
which have occurred during the pust century. These changes have been greater
tnana those in all the thousands of years that preceded. But another change more
basic in character has developed almost urnnoticed. Probably as profound And
far reaching in its effects as ne control over the physical forces of nature
will be the control whicn man is now' acquiring over thie reproduction of the race.

Let us take ten people i, our ar6e cities, were tnere is now a deficit of
about 30 percent in number of children n.ecessar,/ to maintain a stationary
population; and let us assumrne further that i:vis deficit will L.ot change
though during the past decv.de it increased rapidly. These 10 people have
7 children, these 7 will n:,.ve less than 5, these 5 will have a little over 3.
Three generations, or a ce,.tury, and such a population, if this trend continues,
will have fallen to one-third the former level.

LeL us take 10 people in our rural regions, where tnere is now about 30
percent surplus in children above oi.e number necessary to maintain population
stationary. They now have 13 children. If this ratio cani be retained these
children, aftei they grow up, ,:ill ave 17 children, L.nd these in turn %iill
have abcut 22 children. A cL...tur;- hence such population '.ill nave doubled.


WrBreasted, Jamnes -. in "Tae D-1an of Conscience", p-. 4lO-411. Chas.
Scribner Sons, Nev; York, 1933. Reproduced by permission of author and publisher.




28.


But the rural population is now less than half tne total population,
aid from the economic standpoint fewer rather than more people are needed
in agriculture. Half the farmers produced about S8 percent of the commercial
production of farm products in 1029, and could readily produce the remainder.

The great problem, the solution of wnich appears essential to the further
pro-;ress, perhaps even to the preservation of modern Occidental civilization,
is how to alter the nouL-agricultural portion of the economic system so that
it will not penalize parenthood. If nothing is done, we :,,ust contemplate
the probability, amounting, al:aost to certainty, of a declining national
population. A stationary population probably is desirable, but a declining
population will nave serious ecmno.iic and social consequences, particularly
if the decline be rapid. If tne decrease a half centr.ry nence be as rapid
asthaLt in births during ti-.e past decade over 20 percent tie decline will
become a debacle. Not only will the demand for farm products decline, but
also the demand for many manufactured comr.:odities. VWacant. houses, vacant store
rooms, idle factories, abc.andoned f.rms will tend to lower rents and interest
returns and thereby temporarily lo'-'er the cost of living, but the lessened
ret'n'n to capital is likely to der,.'ess gradually the spirit of enterprise,
-11d may well le-id to iiicr-asing dependence upon government. The decreasing
number of children will orob'c-ly diminish the incentive for saving. It is
possible that progress in tech.aicque may counter-balance for awhile the trend
toward consumption of capital, but this is by no means assured. Vacant build-
i-s3 and abandoned laids :.re likel ,, also to exert a depressing psychological
influence. The breat'increased proportion of old people will have, likewise,
a depressing effect.

The future need for farmi land depends largely upon the extent to which
the rural people adopt tae urban philosophy of lifu, and upon the extent
of the r..igration wnicn ma; set in from the farms to the cities. These are
the great -,.certainties. BuG, ii, ,iay opinion, tiis is certain that if the
dow.w/r-d tre:id in tne birthr-.te persists and t,,e predepression migration to
the cities is resumed, while i.n..iigra.tic from abroad is excluded, there will
develop after a decade or two of tiLme a, decline in crop acreage which will be
persisttit, progressive, .nd ultii;t-tely precipitous.

On the other nand, if tlie rur.:_l people retain their ideals of family
life, and ti..-- you-g r.mei. and. acmce: .cw en farms, but not --eeded in agriculture,
mi fate to the villages a--i small towns, 'v.;herc they find work in industry
a.-.d corm-ierce, supplemented b-, much part-tia;L. f'.rming, there may develop
a period ii. which the fruits of science ..-4d invention ',ill bo more widely
distributed amioic the people than in th, past, i- which th fear of u.employ-
Tmet a-nid .poverty .may largely disapp-ar, ir~ which the philosophy of life that
encouraged sacrifice for the sa--:e of children may return, i:i vhich mutual
confide-ce may displace distrust in thu business world, .-eW hope inspire
the people to greater effort ati re-ewecd faith in God help to give meaning
to life.









THE ANNUAL INCREASE OF POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES.BIRTHS.
DEATHS.AND IMMIGRATION OR EMIGRATION. 1910 TO DATE


THOUSANDS

2.800

2.1-00

2.000

1.600

1.200

800

400

0

-400


'ver imn.qyroion -^ -t
I I I .0 I I *1 6 I *I -2 2 *2 -2 *2 8 *3~0 3_ I
1910 "12 '14 .16 '18 'ZU '22 '24. 26 "28 "30 "32 34


ODM FROM T.*CfP50. Alftl tWCLbTOM OF SCG."PS 1O0WfAr'O- fO' DIStrACt .- POPLArrmOI -aOmir&.S
.1G 13119. Bu-E.U Or AGBCULTURAL E.Oh-.-C,


u S DEPARIMLEN OF AOICULIURE


FIGURE I TEN YEARS AGO THE POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES WAS INCREASING ABOUT
1,800,000 A YEAR. NOW THE INOREABE 18 ONLY 800 000. A STATIONARY POPULATION IS AP-
PROACHING RAPIDLY, BUT IT APPEARS TO -BE 10 TO 20 YSARB OFF ON LONGER. THE NUMBER OF
BIRTHS HAS SEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD SINCE 1921. THERE ARE NOW FULLY 10 PERCENT FEWER
CHILDREN UNDER 5 YEARS OF AGE THAN WHEN THE CENSUS WAS TAKEN NEARLY FIVE YEARS AGO
AND 8 PERCENT FEWER 5 TO 10 YEARS OF AGE. THE NUMBER OF DEATHS REMAINS ALMOST STA-
TIONARVY, UT MUST INCREASE SOON, BECAUSE OF THE RAPID INCREASE OF OLD PEOPLE. THERE
WERE 34 PERCENT MORE PEOPLE OVER 65 YEARS OF AGE IN THE NATION IN 1930 THAN IN 1920,
AND ANOTHER INCREASE OF ONE-THIRD 18 INEVITABLE BETWEEN 1930 AND 1940.




NUMBER OF CHILDREN UNDER 5 YEARS OF AGE PER 1,000 WOMEN 16 TO 4 YEARS
OFAGE (INCLUSIVE) UNITED STATES, 1800-1930 AND ESTIMATE FOR 1934


CHILDREN
100 200 300 400


PER 1.000 WOMEN
500 600 700 800 900 1.000


I I I I-




II m

I I






I I I



I I i


IAl 'I-"f" O'P*OF MALrIR WILI COO PRIO rO 1 IO80 3sE PUsiicro lOP AMERICA"H SA*risTICAL A3SOCl.IlIo
'CrnSOINRf'ATIOOf AIRNI S impS #1g9 TO CENSUS IS30, A PO M0 TO 7i0PrS IS-I'S93J
U 5 DEPARIMLNT OF AGRICULTURE NEG 2J2 JA


VOL.bME x' PAGE 4.5 9OS'ON 's-?

BURAU OF AoRICULIURAL ELONOMCS


FIGURE 2 THE BIRTHRATE, AS MEASURED BY THE RATIO OF CHILDREN UNDER 5 TO WOMEN
OF CHILDBEARING AGE, NAS BEEN DECREASING IN THE UNITED STATES FOR MORE THAN A CEN-
TURY. FROM 1920 TO 1930 THE DECLINE WAS OVER TWICE AS RAPID AS IN PREVIOUS DECADES,
EXCEPT THOSE ENDING IN 1850, 1870,AND 1890, WHEN IT IS EVIDENT THERE WAS AN ABNORMAL
UNDER-ENUMERATION OF YOUNG CHILDREN. FROM 1930 TO 1934 THE DECLINE WAS ALMOST AS
GREAT AS IN ANY PREVIOUS DECADE. THE SIGNIFICANT FACT SHOWN BY THE GRAPH IS THAT
THE DECLINING BIRTHRATE IS A LONG-TIME TREND, AND THAT THE RATE OF DECLINE HAS BE-
COME MORE RAPID IN RECENT YEARS.


)


YEAR
4
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1934


NUMBER
i
976*
976
928
877
835
699
714
649
635
554
541
508
486
407
350A


PERCENT
CHANGE


0.0
4.9
5.5
4.8
-16.3
S2.3
9.1
1.8
-12.8
2.4
6.1
4.3
-16.3
-14.0











BIRTH RATES: FIVE COUNTRIES OF NORTHWESTERN
EUROPE, 1870-1933

BIRTHS PER ----
1,000 Germaoy
POPULATION L ..... nlanr- d ane dW


1870
U.S DEPARTMENT QOF AGRICULTLURE


NEG 209B01-A BUREAU OF Ar-ICULrUIAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 3 BIRTH RATES ARE DECLINING IN NORTHWESTERN EUROPE, WHICH HAS HITHERTO
PROVIDED THE PRINCIPAL EXPORT MARKET FOR AMERICAN FARM PRODUCTS. THE MARKED DECREASE IN
THESE COuNTRIES In THE YEARS OF THE WORLD WAR WAS MERELY A DISLOCATION IN AN OTHERWISE
STEADILY DECLINING TREND. THIS TENDENCY IS OCCURRING WHEREVER INOUSTRIALISM AMNO UmRBANI-
ZATION ARE IMPORTANT. IN GREAT BRITAIN THE POPULATION WILL REACH A MAXIMUM ABOUT 1936,
AND SOON AFTER WILL BEGIN TO DECLINE. IN GERMANY THE MAXIMUM PROBABLY WILL mE REACHED
A FEW YEARS LATER, AND, UNLESS THE BIRTH RATE RISES, THE DECLINE LATER WILL BE RAPID,
SINCE 10 ADULTS ARE HAVING ONLY 7 CHILDREN. AT THIS RATE GERMANY IN A CENTURY WILL HAVE
ABOUT ONE-THIRD THE PRESENT POPULaTION UNLESS THERE IS IMMIGRATION FROM ABROAD. HOWEVER,
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN GERMANY SUGGEST THAT A RISING BIRTH RATE MAY BE IN PROSPECT.


NUMBER OF CHILDREN UNDER YEARS OF AGE PER 1.000 WOMEN ISTO 44 YEARSOFAGE ON
APRIL 1.1930. URBAN COMPARED WITH RURAL POPULATION IN UNITED STATES


CLASS OF POPULATION

URBAN
CITIES LARGELY 72
AMERICAN STOCK ?

ALL CITIES
OVER 100.000 --- 29:
POPULATION


ALL CITIES
Z500 TO 10C.000 -- 31
POPULATION
RURAL
RURAL NON-FARM
(MOSTLY VILLAGE) 471
OOPULIATION

RURAL FARM 454E
POPULATION

LESLIE COUNTY
EASTERN KENTUCKY 915
(95.%ON FARMS)


0 100 200


NUMBER OF CHILDREN PER 1.000 WOMEN
300 400 500 600 700 800


- I--In


ABOUT f S60 CNMwaN fPEN cOWWM AAf N1031flv
UP UMP~f TATA JATICS SI TOMAI'O~




U


I I I -
I I I
I-I-I-
I I I I [ ________ [ ________


POP r? O i'cO ,,' SA rAANC'SC LOS ars nsL&A OW Cy .uw arsANWqa.m1Fa ATLANA


NE 17ll? tURKu oF AGIKULJTWAL EMOMCS


u % DEPARTMENT or AGRICULTURE


FIGURE 4 ABOUT 360 CHILDREN uNDER 5 YEARS OF AGE PER 1,000 WOMEN 15 TO 45 YEARS
OF AGE (CHILD-BEARING AGE) ARE REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN POPULATION STATIONARY AT THE 1930
EXPECTATION OF LIFE IN THE UNITED STATES OF 62 YEARS. IN 1930 THE SEVEN CITIES LARGELY
OF AMERICAN STOCK, REPRESENTED IN THE TOP BAR OF THE GRAPH, LACKED, THEREFORE, ABOUT
36 PERCENT OF HAVING ENOUGH CHILDREN TO MAINTAIN THEIR POPULATION PERMANENTLY WITHOUT
ACCESSIONS FROM OUTSIDE, AND ALL CITIES OF OVER 100,000 POPULATION HAD A DEFICIT OF
NEARLY 20 PERCENT, WHILE THE SMALLER CITIES HAD A DEFICIT OF ABOUT 6 PERCENT, ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE RURAL NONFARM (MOSTLY VILLAGE ANI SUBURBAN) POPULATION HAD A SURPLUS
OF 30 PERCENT, AND THE FARM POPULATION A SURPLUS oF 50 PERCENT. IN 1932 URBAN DEFICIT
AND RIRAL SURPLUS ABOUT BALANCED.


900 1.000


r



























































U S. DEPAIITMIT OF AGaICULTUREI MU1. 311 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL CONIOUICS
FIGURE 5 IN 1921 PEARL AND REEo, OF JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY,
PROJECTING POPULATION TRENDS ON THE BASIS OF A LOGISTIC CURVE,
ESTIMATED THAT THE POPULATION Or THE UNITED STATES WOULD BE ABOUT
190,000,000 BY THE YEAR 2,000, AND WOULD INCREASE FOR SEVERAL DE-
CADES THEREAFTER. BUT BIRTHS STARTED TO DECLINE IN 1922 AND BY 1932
AN ESTIMATE MADE BY DUBLIN, ALSO THE MEDIUM' ESTIMATE OF THOMPSON
AND WHELPTON, INDICATED THAT THE POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES
PROBABLYY WOULD NEVER EXCEED 156,000,000 AND THAT THE STATIONARY CON-
DITION WOULD BE REACHED ABOUT 1980. THE THOMPSON AND WHELPTON
MINIMUM' ESTIMATE INDICATED A MAXIMUM POPULATION OF 136,000,000
ASOUT 1956. THIS MINIMUM ESTIMATE APPEARS NOW THE SAFEST, ALTHOUGH
THE FIGURE FOR JANUARY I, 1934, EXCEEDS THE ACTUAL POPULATION BY Aw
BOUT 300,000. SHOULD THE AVERAGE DECREASE 0o 60,000 IN NUMBER OF
BIRTHS EAOH YEAR DURING THE PAST DECADE CONTINUE, AND SHOULD IMMIGRA-
TION BE BALANCED BY EMIGRATION, THE POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES
WILL REACH A MAXIMUM ABOUT 1946, AND THEN BEGIN TO DECLINE. BUT THE
DECLINE WILL BE SLOW FOR A DECADE OR MORE. THE PROSPECT IS THAT THE
POPULATION OF THE NATION WILL NOT DIVERGE MORE THAN 10 OR 12 PERCENT
FROM THE PRESENT NUMBER WITHIN THE 'NEXT 25, POSSIBLY 50, YEARS.












ACRES REQUIRED TO PRODUCE 1,.00,000 CALORIES OF CERTAIN FbOOS
United States, 1922-1924


CROP On PRODUCT

BEETS
SUGAR AE
ICANE -

POTATOES -


CORN MEAL -

WHEAT FLOUR -

TOMATOES -- -

APPLES. 919 -

PORK ANO LARD -

MILK -

SEEf oI DlErseoi -


U S Om MNrW Of A0-ACuLTU


CROP PASTURE
-1 2 1i
"I 0 -l


I 034,---
I I
a 1 76 I
I i
0 79
II





147
I--
i 7 I-

II
235 I .'.

S3 1 0.1


S235 i 6

II 2.5


2


A, a


'Ut


NUMBER O0 ACRES
S I0 '2


Acres of crops
A I I
Acres of humid posture or eyu/vient


W.14I15 ULAKMU M
1a liS JREA.JU SPOu~C41LflJ IfICSVK


FIgURE 6 ONE-THIRD OF AN OACRE IN UGAR CROPS PRODUCES ABOUT As MANY CALORIES OF
FOOD AS THREE-FOURTHS ACRE OF POTATOES OR CORN, OR ONE AND A HALF ACRES OF WHEAT O0 TO-
MATOE8. BUT, LACKING PROTEIN AND FAT, A PERSON COULD NOT LIVE ON SUGAR ALONE. THE CEREAL
DIET WOULO MAINTAIN HEALTH MUCH LONGER. To MAINTAIN HEALTH PERMANENTLY MEAT, MILK,OR
OTHER FOODS HIGH IN PROTEIN, FAT,ANO VITAMINS SHOULD SE ADDEO. THESE REQUIRE THREE TO
FOUR ACRES OF CROPS AND PASTURE TO YIELD ThE SAME ENERGY VALUE IN PORK OR MILK, OR 12
TO 14 ACRES DEVOTED TO SEEF PRODUCTION. IN EXPLANATION OF THE TITLE, THE YEARLY PER
CAPITAL DISAPPEARANCE OF FOODSTUFFI IN THE UNITED STATES IS ABOUT 1,400,000 OALOsIES.
FIGURES USED IN PREPARING THE GRAPH ARE PRELIMINARY.



Changes in Consumption of Food Products Per Person

Total and Six Principal Products, United States,1909-1933
PER ______________________
CENT I I I I


1910


1915


1920


1925


1930


1935


S ipAmTrMLT or AORCUi.B[ N[G 239 6 Bu[Au orf (Mj IuLTURAL ECONOMUICS
FIGURE 7 THE WORLD WAR WORKED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE DIET OF THE AMERIBAN
PEOPLE. PERHAPS OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE WAS THE PROHIBITION AMENDMENT TO THE CONSTITUTION.
THE PROSPERITY OF THE URBAN PEOPLE DURING AND AFTER THE WAR, AND THE FOOD EDUCATION
ARTICLES AN A ADVERTISEMENTS IN THE POPULAR MAGAZINES. THE RESULT PRIOR TO THE DEPRESS-
ION WAS A DECLINE OF ABOUT 80 POUNDS PER PERSON SINCE THE PREWAR YEARS IN CONSUMPTION
OF CEREAL FOODS, AND AN INCREASE OF ABOUT 25 POUNDS PER PERSON IN THE CONSUMPTION OF
SUGAR; ALSO A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE CONSUMPTION OF PORK, PROBABLY OF MILK ALSO, AND
PERHAPS AN EQUAL INCREASE IN USE OF FRUITS AND OF VEGETABLES. DURING THE EARLY DEPRESS-
ION YEARS, 1930 AND 1931, THE CONSUMPTION OF MILK CONTINUED TO INCREASE, OUT IN 1932 AND
1933 A DECREASE OCCURRED. THE USE OF SUGAR AND OF VEGETABLES HAS ALSO OECLIhED, APPARENT-
LY, BUT OF PORK HAS BEEN WELL MAINTAINED. REVISED ESTIMATES OF MILK CONSUMPTION MADE
SINCE THIS GRAPH WAS PREPARED INDICATE AN INCREASE OF ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT SINCE THE PRE-
WAR YEARS, ANO A DOWNWARD TREND IN TOTAL FOOD CONSUMPTION BINGE 1923.


i6 18












PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION IN VARIOUS AGE GROUPS, 1850-1930,
AND THOMPSON'S AND WHELPTON'S LOWESTI MATE, 1930-1980*
PERC-N-----YE S YE RS PG


S40-59 YEARS OF AGE




- 20-39 YEARS OF AGE -


1850 "6O


"70 'o0 90 .1900 '10 20
arW1to srnr


1930 '40 '50 '60 "70 580


US.OlTIMClT OF Ar M.CULuRI NECG. 8?73 'A BVRLAU 01 A4GACULTURAL IC3N0QiOC
FIGURE 8 IN 1870 OVER HALF THE POPULATION WAS UNDER 20 YEARS OF AGE, BUT IN 1930
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. BY 1950 THESE CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE PROBABLY WILL CONSTITUTE
ONLY 30 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION AND BY 1980, OR BEFORE, ONLY 25 PERCENT. IN 1870 ABOUT
5 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION WAS OVER 60 YEARS Of AGE. BY 1930 THE PROPORTION HAD RISEN
TO 8.6 PERCENT. BY 1950 THESE OLD PEOPLE WILL CONSTITUTE 13 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION,
AND BY 1980 PROBABLY I0 PERCENT. IN 1870 ABOUT 46 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION WAS BETWEEN
20 AND 60 YEARS OF AGE, WHICH MAY BE CONSIDERED THE PRODUCTIVE YEARS OF LIFE, TAX-ING THE
PEOPLE AS A WHOLE. BY 1930 PEOPLE IN THESE PRODUCTIVE AGES CONSTITUTED 52.6 PERCENT OF
THE TOTAL POPULATION. BY 1950 THEY WILL CONSTITUTE ABOUT 57 PERCENT, AND BY 1980 PER-
HAPS 55 PERCENT. DURING THE NEXT FEW DECADES, WHEN POPULATION BILL BE ALMOST STATIONARY,
A LARGER PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION WILL BE OF PRODUCTIVE AGE THAN IN THE PAST, OR,
PROBABLY IN THE MORE DISTANT FUTURE.



Shifts in Occupations, 1870-1930
PERCENTAGE OF ALL PERSONS OVER 16 YEARS OF AGE
ENGAGED IN EACH MAJOR GROUP OF OCCUPATIONS


PERCENT

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0


} Prorfessionat
SPublic service'
L Dmestrc and
Personal
Clerical

STrade and
transparlation


Manufac'urinq
and
mi mechanical
industries

Mining


Agriculture


1900 1910
'NOT CIStlwIai CLASIFirLD


US U TIENMI O *G"ILT.19 E[G all%-. SuaI Av A' .CLLTuM*L (LOhJ.OtS
FIGURE 9 Thmc DECREASE IN THE PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION WHO WERE ENGAGED
IN AGRICULTURE, MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ADVANCED IN TECHNIqUE, PARTICULARLY THE IN-
CREASE IN POuEt USED PEN WORKER, RESULTED IN A CREAT CITYWARD MIGRATION OF YOUNG
PEOPLE FROM THE FARMa, WHICH WAS NOTABLY HEAVY FROM 1870 UNTIL 1930. UNTIL ABOUT
1920 THESE RURAL YOUTH, Al WELL AS URBAN YOUTH, FOUND INCREASING EMPLOYMENT IN
MANUFACTURING, MINING, TRADE AND TRANSPORTATION, CLERICAL WORK, AND THE VARIOUS
PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES. BUT SOON AFTER 1920 A DECLINE STARTED ALSO
IN THE PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION ENOACED IN MINING AND IN MANUFACTURING AND
MECHANICAL PURSUITS. As A CONSEqUENCE, TRADE AND CLERICAL WORK AND THE VARIOUS
SERVICES ABSORBEO MANY OF THE YOUNG PEOPLE NO LONGER NEEDED IN THE BASIS PRODUC-
TIVE INDUSTRIES. BETWEEN 1910 AND 1930 THE NUMBER OF PERSONS ENGAGED IN TRADE,
AND CLERICAL SERVICES, CONSIDERED JOINTLY, ALMOST DOUBLED, MILE THE POPULATION
OF THE NATION INCREASED ONLY ONE-THIRD. ADOPTED FROM A DIAGRAM PREPARED BY RALPH
8. NURLIN AND UEREDITH B. GIVEN@ 'REGENT SOCIAL TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES,' A
REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT'S RESEARCH COMMITTEE, NEW YORK, 1933.


90


n


UNDER 20 YEARS OF AGE












































FIGURE 10 ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE NiT MIGRATION FROM THE FARMS SURIGm THE DE-
CAGE 1920-1930 WAS FROM THE SOUTH. NEGROES CONSTITUTED ONE-THIRD Of THIS MIGRATION
FROM SOUTHERN FARMS. A MAdORITY OP'THESE MIGRANTS WERE BETWEEN IS AND 30 YEARS OF
AGE. THE BIRTHRATE 45 HIGH AMONG SOUTHERN RURAL PEOPLE, AND ECLOONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
IS LESS THAN IN THE NORTH. IF I? COSTS ONLY $2,000 TO REAR AND EDUCATE A CHILD TO
THE AGE OF FIFTEEN ($135 A YEAR AND NO ALLOWANCE FOR INTEREST), THESE 3,600,000
MIGRANTS FROM FARMS IN THE SOUTHERN STATES REPRESENT A CONTRIBUTION ROUGHLY OP
$7,000,000,000 MADE DURING THE DECADE BY THE FARM POPULATION OF THE SOUTH TO OTHER
PARTS OF THE NATION, MOSTLY TO THE CITIES. MAP FROM RECENT SOCIAL TRENDS, 1933,
PUBLISHED BY MCGRAW-HILL BOOK COMPANY.


us DoniraEvT OF AeAiCuLrumE


*i1 tb USA C" &GKUIW0.l Ifta@.4


FIGURE II RELATIVE TO THE FARM POPULATION IN 1920 MIGRATION FROM THE FARMS WAS,
LIKEWISE, HEAVY IN MUCH OF THE SOUTH, RISING TO 30 PERCENT IN GEORGIA AND SOUTH
CAROLINA. IT WAS EVEN HIGHER IN UTAH. IN THE BORDER STATES OF THE OLD SOUTH, IT
VARIED FROM 20 Tn 25 PERCENT, WHILE IN ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA IT WAS ALMOST 20 PER-
CENT. IN THE NORrIJ THE RANGE WAS FROM 12 PERCENT IN SOUTN DAKOTA TO NEARLY 20 PER-
CENT IN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS, EXCEPT THAT IN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND TNERE
WAS A NET MIGRATION TO FARMS. IN THE FAR WEST THE RATIO OF MIGRATION TO POPULATION
VARIED PRIMARILY WITH THE RELIGIOUS INFLUENCE AND TNHE IRTH RATE. IN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON, WHERE THE BIRTH RATE IS VERY LOW, THE RATIO WAS ONLY S AND 3.5 PERCENT,
RESPECTIVELY, AND IN CALIFORNIA, THERE WAS A NET EMIGRATION TO FARMS.











Approximate Acreage Required to Produce Net Exports

Major Farm Products, 1897-1932


MILLIONS
OF
ACRES
80


70


60


50


40


30


20


10


FEED FOR HORSES AND MULES J I
USED IN--
- ..'.^ PRODUCING EXPORTS ', :













......u v F .-. Bi.i.ir t \ ,,fHiroi9S' "--,,, ~ v E^Bo-,-yP^, i ..-.,
,SE OTTO CRD OPS, CO
ANI-
,, ,, ,


'B SI 9 01 I02 U03 Oc D6 0 OB 09 IIl? 1i %I 1 97 is I ii? 26 1879 301. 1. '1 4.
19.00 1905 1910' 1915 19201 1925 1' '930 0
U 5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEC 22088 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMiC',.
FIGURE 12 THE ACREAGE REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THE AGRICULTURAL EX-
PORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES HAS BEEN LOWER DURING THE LAST THREE
YEARS THAN IN ANY PREVIOUS YEAR SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CENTURY.
THE CROP ACREAGE REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THE EXPORTS OF MEAT, MOSTLY
PORK AND LARD, FOR SIX YEARS HAS BEEN ONLY A FEW MILLION ACRES.
COTTON NOW CONSTITUTES THREE-FOURTHS OF THE EXPORTS OF FARM PRO-
DUCTS1 AND THE UNITED STATES IS NOW PROVIDING ABOUT AS LARGE A PRO-
PORTION AS EVER OF THE WORLD'S CONSUMPTION OF THIS CROP. FIGURES
USED IN PREPARING THE GRAPH ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION.


! B












Agricultural Production. Crop Land Farm Labor and Population

1897-1934
PER ___
CENT -
1897 -1901= 100
170________

160______
I ,. /

150 --

140
^~r ogrcu lturalI

130 /od--

120

0o two____ I
110 J1^ '...^ ^ ACway, of crops ~ Monfhs of labor'


1900
u S DLEUrMEWi OF A.uhRCUITUNr


_LLL_ _LLLJ
1925 1930 1935
MaG 2 019 sUaOCffAlavaUmLamoIiCS


FIGURE 13 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FROM 1926 TO 1931 WAS ABOUT 50 PERCENT GREATER
THAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TWENTIETH CENTURY, CROP ACREAGE WAS NEARLY 25 PERCENT
GREATER, AND QUANTITY OF LABOR EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE In 1929 WAS 10 TO 12 PERCENT
GREATER. PRODUCTION PER ACRE, THEREFORE, INCREASES ABOUT 20 PERCENT, AND PRODUCTION
PER MAN ABOUT 35 PERCENT. MOST OF THIS INCREASE OCCURRED AFTER THE WAR. THE TREND
OF PRODUCTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DOWNWARD SINCE 1931, OWING LARGELY TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT. THE BABSE PERIOD 1897-1901 WAS OPULENT IN THE RELATION OF PRODUCTION TO
POPULATION, ABOUT ONE-FOURTH OF THE PRODUCTION BEING EXPORTED; AR COMPARED WITH ONE-
EIGHTH AT PRESENT. CONSUMPTION PER CAPITAL HAS BEEN WELL MAINTAINED, EXCEPT DURING
THE WAR YEARS, WHEN THE DECLINE IN CONSUMPTION WAS ATTRIBUTABLE MOSTLY TO FOODS, AND
DURING THE DEPRESSION YEARS, WHEN THE OEOLINE IS LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO NON-FOODS -
COTTON ANO FLAX PARTICULARLY.


FIGURE 14 THIS MAP NHOWS ONLY THE DECREASE IN MATURE NORSEB AND MULES BETWEEN
THE CENSUS YEARS 1920 AND 1930. THE DECREASE WAS PROPORTIONATELY MUCH GREATER -
63 PERCENT IN YOUNG STOCK. THE AREA OF CROP LAND RELEASED BY THE DECLINE IN ALL
HORSE AND MULES PROBABLY EXCEEOE 20,000 000 ACREB DURING THIS DECADE, 1920-1930,
AND NOW AMOUNTS IN ALL FULLY TO 35,000,000 ACRES, WHEN CALCULATED FROM THE EARLIER
PEAK IN NUMBERS IN EACH STATE. MOOT OF THESE 35,000,000 ACRES ARE NOW USED TO
FEED MEAT AND MILK ANIMALS.











Less Productive Compared with More Productive Crops Per Acre
and Meat and Milk Animals Per Unit of Feed Consumed.
Percentage Change in Acreage or Number, 1900 to Date

SPERCENT I-______T_ I -
160 AVERAGE ACREAGE .-----
1697'-1901' ./ |./ IF 1


100 T. .n*.
i Cattle oater Ihn doiry cows a o f
beef cattle mostly and sheep ** i
o I i I I i l I i I .
801900 1905 1910 1915
S 9 DIPAINERT OF %&FR,CuuA[E


1925 1930 1935
t L 'g923 BUREAU OF AGRICULTJTRAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 5I THE ACREAGE OF CHOPS HAVING A HIGH AVERAGE VALUE PER ACRE (OVER $25
DURING THE PERIOD 1925-1929) INCREASED MORE RAPIDLY PRIOR TO THE DEPRESSION, THAN
THAT OF CROPS HAVING A LOWER AVERAGE ACRE-VALUE. FROM 1921 TO 1926 THE INCREASE IN
ACREAGE OF THE MORE VALUABLE CROPS WAS NOTABLE. LIKEWISE, THE NUMBER OF DAIRY COWS
INCREASED NOTABLY WHILE THAT OF aEEF CATTLE, WHICH PRODUCE MUCH LESS HUMAN FOOD PER
UNIT OF FEEO CONSUMED HAS REMAINED ABOUT STATIONARY, OR DECLINED SLIGHTLY, AFTER
ALLOWANCE IS MADE FOR THE CYCLE. THESE TRENDS TEND TO INCREASE PRODUCTION PER ACRE,
BUT DURING THE DEPRESSION, AND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRICULTURAL ADJUSTMENT
ADMINISTRATION PROGRAM, THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD THE LESS INTENSIVE USE OF THE LAND.


CORN.WHEAT, OATS,


TONS OF HAY
OR 100 LBS.
OFCOTTON
17

1.5
1.3

1.1


COTTON, AND HAY, YIELD PER ACRE FOR UNITED STATES
5 Year Moving Average, 1885 1931


BUSHELS 1 T I I
30
25
20 oI


|0 0 --- -- Wheaoo' -- -

5
0 J I tll IllL III I I~ Ill i1 11 I I III
1885 1890 i895 1900 1905 1910 19i5 1920 1925 930 1935
U S OEPART'MEN OF AGRICULTURE AM2477. BUREAU OFAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 16 THE ACRE-YIELDS OF WHEAT IN THE UNITED STATES AS A WHOLE HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE FOR 40 YEARS, EXCEPT FOR AN OCCASIONAL ABNORMAL YEAR. IT i8 WORTH NOTING,
HOWEVER, THAT OWING TO DROUGHT IN 1933, THE ACRE-YIELDS WERE LOWER THAN IN ANY YEAR
SINcE 1890. THE ACRE-YIELDS OF CORN HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD DURING THE LAST DECADE.
DURING THE LAST FIVE YEARS ACRE-YIELDS AVERAGED LOWER THAN IN ANY PRECEDING FIVE
YEARS SINCE THE CIVIL WAR, THOUGH THEY WERE ALMOST AS LOW IN 1890-1894. THE ACRE-
YIELDS OF OATS NAVE BEEN FAIRLY WELL MAINTAINED, BUT IN 1933 WERE THE LOWEST ON RE-
CORD. THE ACRE-YIELDS OF COTTON TRENDED DOWNWARD AS THE BOLL WEEVIL EXTENDED ITS
RAVAGES, BUT IN 1931 AND 1933 WERE NOTABLY HIGH, THE AVERAGE ACRE-YIELD OF HAY HAS
INCREASED LARGELY BECAUSE OF SHIFTS FROM THE LESS PRODUCTIVE GRASSES TO THE MORE
PRODUCTIVE LEGUMES. IN 1930, 1931, AND 1933, HOWEVER, YIELDS WERE LOW.












































- i C,[PA*&.Ih p A ft.CuL'5IJ .t MG T7JS BUmtAu OF PMICuLTUIA LtCOUOC S

FIGURE 17 THE REGION OF MeOST SERIOUG EROSION ARE THE PIEDMONT, WHICH NXTEND8
BOUTHWESTERLY FROM NE YORK CITY TO CENTRAL ALASAMA; THE UPPER COASTAL PLAIN OF
GeommIA, ALABAMA, MiesIsiePPI, STERN TENNoESSEE AND OF NORTHEASTERN. TEXAS; MUCH OP
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND OF TME LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER MIaBOURI RIVER VALLEYS,
THE PRAIRIES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, THE PALDU8E-WALLA WALLA DIBTRICTS IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND THE HILL SLOPES IN CALIFORNIA. EROSION 18 ALSO WIDESPREAD IN THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM PENNSYLVANIA SOUTH AND IN THE OZARKS OF MISSOURI AND ARK-
ANSAS.


FIGURE 18 A DECREASE In ACREAGE OF CROPS OCOURED BETWEEN 1919 AND 1929 IN MOST OF
THE ORIGINALLY FORESTED PORTION OF THE UNITED STATED. THE DECREASE IN TME 1,940 COUNTIES
REPORTING A DECREASE EXCEEDED 32,000,000 ACRES. Tur OUTSTANDING DECREASE WAS IN THE
PIEDMONT OF GEORSIA AND SOuTH CAROLINA, AND IN A BELT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ACROSS NEW YORK, SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, ONIO, SOUTHERN INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, AND MOOT
or KENTUCKY AND MISSOURI, TO EASTERN OKLANOMA,AND CENTRAL TEXAS. PART OF THIS LAND WAS
USED FOR PASTURE, PART LAY IDLE, AND PART WAS GROWING UP TO CRUSH. THE FARMAWS IN THESE
AREAS GENERALLY ARE SMALL, AND THE BOILO ARE POOR OR FAIR, CUT OiME AE GOOOD. EROSION
WAS A LARGE FACTOR IN THE DECLINE IN CROP ACREAGE IN THE PIEDMONT, OHIO VALLEY, AND MIS-
SOURI AREAS.


GENERAL DISTRIBUTION OFr EROSION
I (N Gi. NE i fT.it33 4)


opTrl ros'on not Predomminantly mountanus
Copmpa'an.ely I generally ieu s and dry lend condt'ons
l le erosion 0ivenu serious A uch serious erosion by
because of flat surface wind erosion overy'rling



















































FioURn 19 THE INCREASE IN CROP AREA BETWEEN 1919 AND 1929 OCCURRED MOSTLY IN THE SEMI-
ARID PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS REGION, WHERE THE TRACTOR, COMBINE, AND OTHER LABOR-SAVING
MACHINERY MADE IT POSSIBLE TO GROW GRAIN ON THE LEVEL LAND PROFITABLY AT THE PRICES THEN
EXISTING. A NOTABLE INCREASE OCCURRED ALSO IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND IN THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BOTTOMS OF MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. IN BOTH THESE AREAS MUCH LAND HAD
BEEN DRAINED, BUT MOST OF THE MINNESOTA GAIN WAS BECAUSE OF A SEVERE DROUGHT IN 1919. THE
INCREASE IN THE 1,130 COUNTIES IN THE UNITED STATES REPORTING AN INCREASE DURING THE DECADE
EXCEEDED 30,000,000 ACRES.


%4u


FLOURS 20 SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC AND OHIO RIVERS THE AVERAGE VALUE OF FARM PRODUCTS SOLD
OR CONSUMED BY THE FARM FAMILY WAS LESS THAN $1,000 DURING THE YEARS 1924-1928. IN MOST OF
THESE STATE@ THERE WERE LESS THAN 2 HORSES OR MULES PER WORKER, AS COMPARED WITH 10 IN
IOMA. IN GENERAL, THE VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INCREASES WITH THE AMOUNT OF POWER
AVAILABLE PER WORKER, EACH HORSE OR MULE BEING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN PRODUCTION OF
$100 TO $200, BUT THE AMOUNT OF POWER PER WORKER VARIES NOTABLY WITH THE FERTILITY AND LAY
OF THE LAND AND WITH THE CROPS GROWN. IN THE COTTON BELT THE LACK OF A SUCCESSFUL MECHANI-
CAL COTTON PICKER, AS WELL AS GENERALLY POOR SOIL, LIMITS PRODUCTION PER WORKER.


IU.S DEPlTUDST OF AGRICULlTUEf


Nmm 24449 IBURE OF AGnICULF'RJL LCONOUlC5


US DERMUiEiT Of AGRI CULTURE








ESTIMATED VALUE OF PRODUCTS SOLD FROM FARMS
INTO VALUE OF PRODUCTS GROUPS, UNITED STATES,


THOUSANDS OF FARMS
800 400


CUMULATIVE CUML
PERCENTAGE PERC
FARMS HAVING
0 j TOTALVALUE OF. I
PRODUCTS SOLD
6.6 Under $251 o.i

15.3 251 400 i.o


28.0


401-


JLATIVE
ENTAGE
1 o
USED k
4.2


CLASSIFIED
1929


MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
400 800 1,200 1,601


3.4 21.'


601- I,

1,001- I,


- a


1,200















A

ft


._am.




...... .UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
Ii i Hi lii lii illi liill i11111 H I 11 il I~ 11111
3 1262 08918 9152





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