World cotton prospects

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Title:
World cotton prospects
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
Language:
English
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United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics. -- Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Publisher:
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Division of Statistical and Historical Research.
Place of Publication:
Washington
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monthly
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Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
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federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
- C-133 (Oct. 1936).
General Note:
Reproduced from typewritten copy.
General Note:
Description based on: C-59 (June 1930).

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
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aleph - 026660256
oclc - 30588060
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AA00013009:00019

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Succeeded by:
Cotton situation
Related Items:
Statistics on cotton and related data


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Full Text



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

C-65 WORLD COTTON PROSIMCTS Pcccmb: r f ', L -



SUMIM.ARY

The failure of business in general to improve following the improve-

ment in the domestic cotton textile industry in September and October, the

dropping off in cotton exports, and the continued world-wide depression

were depressing factors in the cotton price situation during the past month.

As a result there were declines in spot prices of 0.81 to 3.55 cents in

the important growths from November 14 to December 12. The greatest decline

was in 3Eyptian Sakellaridis and the smallest decline in Brazilian. Futures

prices of American cotton declined 1.48 to 1.78 cents per pound from

November 13 to December 13 in the New York, New Orleans and Liverpool markets

with the greatest declines in Liverpool.

The world visible supply of all growths on December 12 totalled

about 9.7 million bales, 1.9 million bales above the corresponding dEtc in

1929 and 2.3 million bales above that date in 1928. The visible supply of

American on this date amounted to 7.8 million bales compared with 5.8 million

and 5.7 million bales at this time in 1929 and 1928 respectively.

Erports of domestic cotton for the season, which up until the beginning

'f November were above last season, for the four months ending November 30,

1930 were 71,000 bales below the same period last year. Exports to France

and Germany so far this season were above last season whereas exports to all

other important countries were below last season.

The total movement into sight for the four months August to November,

1930 totalled about 9.7 million bales against 10.1 million bales during






0-65 -2-

this :period last season. Slightly more' cotton has beon sent to ports

tnan last year but mach less has gone overland to mills.

The domestic cotton textile activity during November, when adjusted

for the fewer working days, was about the scme as during October. Textile

activity in the United States in the first four months this season, how-

ever, was about 29.7 per cent below the sane period last season, the aver-

age monthly rate of consumption amounting to 402,000 bales this season

comnzared with 372,000 bales last season. Unfilled orders of standard cotton 14

cloth dccroi-csed during November and stocks increased but both changes were

less than the average seasonal changes for the four years 1927-1930.

In general the foreign textile situation is less favorable than it

was a month n go,but i-s not without its bright spots. The mills in Central

Europe h.ve fo-ind it possible to raise out,'ut because of the very low

stocks of finished goods, and in Italy the maintenance for several, weeks of

a favorable ratio of sales to the much reduced output has enabled a slight '

pick-up in s-ito of the fact that stocks are still large.

The sharp curtailment in cotton yarn production in Japan has widened

spinners margins. These wider margins nave caused Japanese production to

increase sonc, and, together with the lower prices of silver, are resulting

in imports of Chinese yarn into Japan. Purchases of raw cotton are only

for i-inedi-.te requirement, and as coarse yarns are finding a readier market

because of the hard times, the proportion of AmLnricin cotton used has

decreased.

The December forecr.st of the domestic production for 1930 of

14,243,000 bales reduced the prospective supply of American cotton for the

season by- about 195,000 b-.les. The estimated production for 1930 in those

comutrics reporting to d-te is slightly below production last year .d the

same is true of the 1930 acreage.

a _







0-65 -3-

Prices

Snots

Prices of spot cotton in both the Ame;-i-a:n an.J foreign markets for
domestic as well as foreign growths declined rather ste:,i'ily .: ring the past
month. The price of Aner:ican middling 7/8 inch cotton declined 1.52 cents
per pound from November 13 to December 15 witn the averti.e price on December
15 of 8.58 cents per pound which was a new low tor the season and was the
lowest since A.-.st., 191>". Si-ice ti.e; onices have strengthened some with
the avera. tc in the 10 ,LrarLets on Dec-mlb'r 17 -at 9.03 cents per poun.i. Prices
of American cotton in most of the important spot markets moved very mluci
in line '.ith the average of the 10 markets.

In the Liverpool market the greatest decline during the period from
November 14 to Decem.ber 12 was rLade in rgyptian S-.kellaridis vhiich made a
net decline of 3.55 cents per pound. Luring this period Zg'ptian Ur.ers
declined 1.23 cents per pound, Aiiirian midilin;- 1.12 cents, Indian Sind
and Oomra 1.01 cents, Brazilian Ceara and S% ?E.ulo 0.81 cents, Peruvian
Tanguis 1.01 cents and PcrLvian Smooth 1.22 cents per pound.

Agricultural Co'.ilissioner Steere in :iis report of iovembcr 26, 1?30
states that continental spinners' purchases were low in the mi .dle of
October but the rise in rm.w cotton *prices thn second hIalf of October
stimulated demand greatly and resulted in extensive purchasing of both American
and Indian cotton as well as heavy price fi;:ini. The first half of Tovcm-
ber, however, brought a genorel reduction in buying as a result of a .wcak:er
tendency in the raw cotton market. The competitive position of Indian
cotton in relation to Americrn o: the Continent has not changed ma.terially
for a month or two but ,yptian experienced a decline from 116 per cent of
Americ.n in September to 110 per c-nt in October and 101 per cent in iTov-m-
ber 1930.

Futures

Prices of futures contracts of America. cotton in iTew York, 'vow Orlea ns
and Liverpool made declines ranging from 1.-18 coets to 1.78 cents per pound
from November 13 to December 13. The How York market was sliitly stronger
than cith:r New Orleans or Liverpool and Liverpool was slightly weaker than
HTcw Orleans. The declines at N;ew York ranged from 1.48 to 1.57 cents per
pound, ind at new Orleans from 1.52 to 1.G3 cents and at Liverpool from 1.64
to 1.78 cc:nts per oound. The greatest declines were in the January and
Mcrch contracts

Stocks rn-d mov.-mcnts

World visible suuply

The world visible supply of all g;rowths on Dccember 12, 1950 oarout-ted
to 9,699,000 bales compared with 7,772,000 b-.cl, r: a 7,415,000 ba.ls on
the corrcs-conding dates last ,ear ::ud the ycnr before according to the
Commercial and Financial Chroniclc. Tot-l visible supply of A;krrican on







C-65


this drte amou~ntcd to 7,803,000 cornpared with 5,838,000 and 5,683,000 at
:i tin i1 I':19 r:d 192P rei-o:.ctivcl., The visible supply of other
,;o.,chs at this tilie tot:'led 1,896,000 compared C:ith 1,934,000 a year
earlier aid 1,730,000 two years earlier.

The greatest increase in stocks of American is at ports in the United
States, bht stocks at Liverpool, Manchester and on the Continent and 'stocks
in the interior of the United States are all above a year ago. Stocks of
Egypticn cotton in Alexandria continue well above last year while stocks
of Indian cotton in Bombay are considerably below last year.


Table 1. Cotton: World visible supply of
growths on Deccmber 12, 1928,


American and other
1929 and 1930


;i:nd and location of stocks 1928 1929 1930

: Running Running : Running
American : bales : bales : bales
Great Brita.in ....................: 522,000 : 377,000 : 459,000
Contincntrl .........................: 943,000 : 742,000 : 951,000
Afloat for Europe ..................: 614,000 : 607,000 : 428,000
United States::::
Port stocks .............. .......: 2,364,111 : 2,646,069 : 4,148,603
Interior stocks ...................: 1,232,683 : 1,461,857 : 1,815,747
Exports tod.y (:1ov. 11)... .....-....: 7,219 : 3,650 : 1,144
Total American .................: 5,683,013 : 5,837,576 : 7,805,494 '

-ast Indian, Brazilian, etc.
Gro-.t Britain .......................: 292,000 : 436,000 : 459,000
Contin :ent.l ................... ... : 47,000 : 86,000 : 115,000
Indian afloat for Europe .............: 73,000 : 103,000 : 80,000
Egyptiin, Brazili.ni, etc.,afloat.....: 107,000 : 132,000 : 101,000
Alexandria, 'gypt ...................: 447,000 : 423,000 : 673,000
Bomb-c India .......................: 764,000 : 754,000 : 468,000
Total :ast Indian, Brazilian, etc..: 1,730,000 : 1,934,000 : 1,896,000
Totrl visible supply ...........: 7,413,013 : 7,771,576 : 9,699,494
Compiled from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle.

Exports of Ainrican cotton

Exports of raw cotton duri-mg N.ovember armnounted to about 903,000 running
bales comnc.red with 1,004,000 b!els during October ?ad 1,0-9,000 b-lcs dur-
ing November 1929 n.ccording to the Bureau of the Ce:isus. Exports for the
first four months this season totaled 3,181,000 bcles against 3,252,000 b-les
during the samr,- period last ycr.r. Until the beginning of iNovombor the
total exports for the season were larger than during the s.mne period last
year. Exports- to December 1 this season to France nid Germany were still
above l.st season, but to all other important consuming countries they
were below last season.



.. .. .. ........


-4-





0C-5
Imports of foreign cotton

During Hovembor there \rere only 3,409 bales (500 pounds gross)
iraIorted into the United St-ates, compared --ith 35,502 bales during iiovember
1929 and with 1,747 bales during October 1930. Imports during the four
months ended ITovember 30 totaled 14,451 bales conmarod rich 10-,084 during
this .r.eriod last year. I.ports from China alone have been above last year.
The reductions have ta'-en place in cotton coming from Eogypt, Peru n.id .iexico.
Undoubtedly the tariff on long staple cotton is the principal factor cc.using
these reduced imports.

Into sight, ;ort receipts, nill t.:a1in.-s., itc.

IDrin;g iovermer about 2,749,000C running bales came into si lht in the
United States .which compares with 2,682,000 during lrovember 1929 -nd 2,902,000
in November 1928, according to the reports of the ileu Orlo'ns Cotton Exchange.
The total move:nent into si.ght for the four month s AugLust tio-.ith Iovr. m er
totaled 9,693,000 bales co!nmarod with 10,120,000 bales dLring this I.eriod last
season. The i;oveinbor port receipts a.nounted to 1,652,000 bales com-arod ':ith
1,530,000 and 1,676,000 during Iovo.nber last ear and the year before. The
total receipts for the season to the and of 11ovombor amounted to 6,032,000
bales, being 308,000 bales or 5.4 per cent above rocoipts during this period
last season. There lwere 142,000 bales which moved ovurl.nd during 11ov-.iber
this year compared 'with 168,000 belos during ilovoubor 1929. T;io total
movomront for the four months this season amounted to 528,000 bales compared
with 531,000 bales during the same period in 1929 or a decrease of 36.3 per
cent. bMill ta::in3s. during llovo:abor woro 954,000 balcs, being 190,000 bales
below ITovembur 1929 and 153,000 bales below lYovmnbor 1928. Tal:ings through
Yiovombqr this season totaled 2,356,000 b..los co.mparod with 3,176,0CO balos
during the sa.no period last ys r ';...ich is a docroese of 25.8 per cent. Stocks
at ports and interior tor ns at the and of ieovolbor totaled 6,571,000 balos,
that is 1,987,000 bales above a ye-ar earlier.

Stockl in consumin cestablishimeots, otc.

Stocks of raw cotton in do-eostic consuming establish .-lnts on l.ovembcr
30, 1930, totaled 1,567,000 running bales a ginst 1,;055,000 bales on
ITovuo!.ar 30, 1929, according to the Bu~ jau of tho Census. Stoc,-s in public
storage and at compresses amounted to 8,398,000 bales at the end of Uovo.ibor
conmparod wiith 5,813,000 bales a year earlier.
Textile Situnrtion
United States

Cotton tjxtilc activity aurir: I Tovc.o;jr .As ni&surod by cons -pt ion of
raw cotton 'hon adjusted for the nlurbor of :;ori: days vas about tio s:-.no as
during Octobur. ConsLumption during lovieber anounted to about 415,000 running
bales compnro 'vith 444,000 bales during October and 541,000 bales during
November 1929, according to the Bu:'jau of the Census. DIuring the nine ;':ars
1920-21 to 192;8-29 consumption during Iovombior avoraogd abo.it 2,000 bales
below October consumption. Total constumition during the first four months
this season amoLunted to 1,606,000 balec ccm;n:,ar.d ,.ith 2,.286,000 last year.
The avora;g monthly rate of consum-tion during the first 'our months this
season vras 402,000 bales compared .ith an average of 572,000 balos duriLng
the same )priod last season.





.. j~xm r. .- .. "-_. .





0-65


During November sales of standard cotton cloth were below shipments
and shipments were below production which resulted in an increase in stocks
and a decrease in unfilled orders. The weekly average production during Nov-
ember a~nounted to 51.7 million yards, or 5.9 million yards above October and
17.3 million yards or 25.1 per cent below November last year according to.
reports of the Association of Cotton Textile Merchants of New York. During
the three previous years for which data are available the weekly average
production during November has been on the average 2.1 million yards below
October. Sales of cotton cloth during November averaged 45.8 million yards
a week or 88.6 per cent of production. This compares with an average of 67.2
million yards during October with a ratio to production of 146.7 per cent.
Although sales averaged 21.4 million yards per week below October they were
1.2 million yards above the weekly average during November, 1929 and the ratio
to production was 24.0 per cent higher than the ratio.during November a year
ago. During the four years 1927-1930 sales during November have averaged
22.1 million yards per week below October. The weekly average of shipments
during November was 50.2 million yard's compared with 54.1 million yards dur-
ing October and 55.3 million yards during November last year. The decline of
3.9 million yards in the weekly average shipments during November compared
with October was less than the average decline of 6.0 million yards for the
four years 1927-1930. The ratio of shipments to production during November-
amounted to 97.1 per cent compared with 118.1 per cent during October and 801
during lNovember, 1929. As a result of shipments dropping below production
stocks at the end of November were about 6.0 million yards or 1.7 per cent .
higher then at the end of October. However, they were 74.6 million yards
lower than last year and with the exception of October were the lowest since
September, 1929. The decline in saleq .ap compared to shipments in November;.' :
brought about a decrease o "5.0 per cent in unfilled orders during the months
The total at the end of November which amounted to 333.3 million yards con-
pares with 350.8 million yards at the end of October and 342.2 million yards
at the end of November last year. With the exception of a month earlier un-
filled orders are still the largest since last April.

Great Britain

The decline in exports of cotton piece goods and yarns from Great
Britain during November which reflects the continuation of unsatisfactory
conditions especially in the Orient, has made the outlook for the British in-
dustry less favorable than a month ago. Exports of cotton piece goods during
November amounted to 130.3 million square yards, 20.0 million yards below
October rnd 153.7 million yards or 54.1 per cent below November, 1929. This
was the lowest for the season and was 15.3 million square yards below the
low of 1921. Exports during the first four months this season totaled 591.3
million square yards compared with 1108.6 million during the same period
last season or a decrease of 46.7 per cent. According to weekly cables
from Liverpool and Manchester, the demand for both cotton yarm nd piece goods
continues rather inactive. The low price of silver continues to hamper trade
with China.



*.:"


... ... ...' ii i... ... .








0-65 -7-

Although exports of cotton yarn in Great Britain during November which
amounted to 11.0 million pounds v;ere 700,0)00 pounds below October, they
were above any month with the exception of October since last May and were
only 1.5 million pounds below November, 1929. During the ten years 1920-21
to 1929-30 exports of cotton yarns during November averaged practically the
same as during October. Total exports during tne first four months this
season amounted to 42.0 million pounds compared with 61.5 million pou.Ads
during this period last season or a decrease of 31.7 per cent.

Continental Europe 1/

Slightly more active conditions have developed in the European cotton
textile industry during October and early November, but the movement, though
fairly general, was entirely seasonal. No basic revival is yet evident and
the general level of activity in Central and Northwestern Europe, as well
as Italy, continues unsatisfactory. Only in France does occupation still
continue good and a slightly downward tendency is also evident there.

The volume of business in yarns booked by spinners in October and
early November was larger than in the previous month in practically all
countries on the Continent, with most of the business developing toward the
end of Ootober when the raw material market was moving upward. This revival
in business was very largely seasonal in character, but there is no doubt
that the advance in raw cotton prices tended to bring increased bookings
for spinners, and weaving establishments also shared in the larger sales.
As a result of the slightly better order situation, it appears that a small
rise in both-spinning and weaving mill activity has recently occurred in
Central Europe and in Italy, though not more than a normal increase for this
time of the year. The mills in Central Europe h.ve found it possible to
raise output because of the very favorable stock situation, coupled with
increased sales. In Italy the maintenance, for several weeks, of a favor-
able ratio of sales to the much reduced output has enabled a slight pick-up
in spite of the fact that stocks are still important.

Germany

Conditions in the German cotton textile industry have not sjiown
material change recently, though a slight improvement in both mill sales
and mill activity has been evident during October and. early November.

Spinners reported very quiet business during most of October, but
some revival was evident toward the end of the month in all branches of
cotton spinning, largely as a result of seasonal tendencies, but partly
because of the rise in raw cotton prices. Delivery against old contracts
was also asked for in increasing volume. At the same time, however,
spinners continue to point out that margins rre unsatisfactory. Spinning
mill activity, which showed a consider-ble rise in July following the low

n Based on cable from Agricultural Commissioner L. V. Steere at Berlin,
dated November 26, 1930.


~~'~1*rY.-----~?~-~-*5--;;;-~--~;C-


---- ~711






C-S65 -3-

fiure for June, dropped again from 96.8 to 88.8 in August and rose slight-
ly to 89.1 per cent of average. : in Scpten!ober 1930. October activity appears
to h:.vec been so!me'vnht above this level.

i.A :orts from the weaving section are about unchanged compared with a
months r 'o, wit.', no irmprovonent evident which would extend beyond seasonal
limits. That the pick-up is largely seasonal, is indicated by the better
der.Lpnd for cort;-in winter fabrics, reports pointing, among other things,
to some.vhat better export business to the'ITetherlands and to England with
reos.-oct to winter specialties. Prices continued to be complained of, how-
ev..'r, -nd wracviln raill activity hrs not been wunch increased. There was a
sli.:nt rise from 65.2 per cent in August to 66.5 per cent of full capacity
in Sc temrber 1930.

The situation with respect to yarn and. oods stocks continues satis-
factory, as stocks are very low. Re-til textile reports indicate no
si nificnnt developments.

Imports of cotton yarn during, October mor.unted to 4,621,000 pounds
co:mpnrcd with -4,200,000 pounds during, September and 5,210,000 pounds during
October, 1229 or an increase of 10 per cent over Se-tember and decrease of
11 per cent from October last year. This increase over September wn.s
largely seasonal as imports during October are usually considerably above
SeptcAbor. Imports of woven materials during the month of October which
mounted to 1,243,000 pounds wrs 79,030 pounds above September an.d 241,000
pounds below October a year ago. This increase daring October is also
sac.sonal for during the last. five. years, imports during October have avcroaed
328,000 Pourds above Se:te.iber.

r:.nkruptcies in the Germnnn textile trade continue at on unusual level,
but the high point of the wave is doubtless passed. The development of
propalnganda for new uses of cotton within Germany, contemplated since last
yeo-r, r-.s now apparently reached a sijnificrnt stage with the establishment
o anc office for research in propaganda possibilities.

SpinnLcr b_y.inc of r-w cotton at Bremen around the middle of October
was quiet despite somewhat more interest for roughishh" Indian cotton.
Towari the end of October spinner demand increased again, however, and Was
r-,tl;y stirul-.ted by the rise in raw cotton prices as well as by the
firmness of the "basis". Transactions included winter months and also
purc;hi.s further into 1931. Indian cotton was also in active demand, but
exotics continued to be neglected. The first part of November brought a
considcrr.ble decline of spinner buying as well as price-fixing (which
wus .also heavy prior to lo-vember 1), because of the decline in the raw
cotton: cLrrk-,:t. C.i.f. import b,'irg was generally not large during October
r'Lid ihrveimber aid confined, to bargain purchases.







C-65


Czechoslovcikia

LSe,;'or ts front the C:Zecr-:o.slovJio:l. *"o tt on tuxt.il ind__stry ar,-e not
at all encouraging, but a node-rate itn:,rovc,,,-:.t in both ST-inner and weaver
sales as well as mill activity seei s to n.ave occurred during tne mont.!
of October. Activity figures for O.:tobz'-r, w:ien available, are ex:,ected
to show sli htly hiAher s.innin; mill o 'ernticns tr-.n the 74 -.er ci at
reported lor Se-'terb. r. Suin_.i l: nil. activitJ i. J.l w..s ?.3 or ce.:t
and in A-:;;-t 73.6 jer cent.

L'-e.dc-rs in the Czechosluval-iani cotton iidstY: n,' ave .fifinally re.c!.ed
the conclusion that, surrounded as the country' is b,,- ar. arra of iier.
protection countries, the present voll.une of so'rius [,prodI.-cin., s i;idle.-.,..
capacity cannot be maintained. In coliio wit t tl.e Lon.s inturete,,
Czechosioveakian spinners have drawn up a proran according, to which 600,000
cotton spindles in Czechoslovarki (c".:ptirni spindles not considered) s'.ial
be bouti.,t up aadL destroyed. It is pla.Llned t.iat t'he spinr.ers, by levies
based upon re:r.ainirn, spindles, will collect tlte r'ioncy necessar., for r,-
paynient of the credit to the oa.n:s wit.-in a few' :,es rs. Mlo'r re cent r:-.orts,
however, indicate some doubt as to t:n, realization of t'is plain.

Austria

Critical conditions continue. in Austria, both in spinning and ''eoving
mills, end it is reported that no seasonal improvemiiint has yj-t occurred,
either in sales or in mill activity. D'ezpit) t-iu fact that about 25 .cr cent
of the woavin-- mills are closed down, t e Austrian weaving section r!-a not
yet succeeded in ;etti-g on to a :_ouind basis, a~lt. ho. h its capacit':. i
largely below do'.,estic rcqu.i:eenorts. It is reportL:1 that th-. situ-ation wa-s
aggravated through recent keen corinpetition from southern Gern,?-i weaving
mills, in a fi-ld wnich is normally affected only by Czechoslovo :ian o[fcrs.

The latest spinning mill activity fi-ure is for the mrontn of S,;:'tember
a~.d is 82 per cent of full capacity, an incr.;se of 2 ,per cc-nt over Au.ust,andM
14 per cent over the low level of July. Although this figure is 6 per cent
above September 1929 and 7 per cent above Scptei.ber 19,28, tiiC spindicagc
has bce:. reduced by about 30 per ceit compared with 1929.



Conditions in th'e Hi'unaricn cotton textile industry remained sctis-
facto'r, with ctive yarn and fabrics business developing toward the end
of October as a result of the rising raw cotton mIr'r:c-t. Early lNveOnb.-r
business, however, was restricted, particularly for rnore dist:.nt deliv.-ries.
This also wcs attributed to conditions in t;he'' rw cotton m::rk.:t, with the
renewed- decline niaking buyers reluctant.


-9-






C-65 -10-

r'l'ance

TChe ''i-rnch cotton toe:tilc induct-'y ;as a h70olo still reports a rather
satisfactory level of occupation with business somorhat imp-rovod recently
as conAarod vith previous vooks. It appears, however, that activity has
been slightly reduced since the first half of the year as a result of loss
favorable sales ucroud the middle of the y ar and subsequently.

Sales of cotton yarn woro still quiet around the middle of October,
especially at Roubaix-2To.rcoing, but the increase in raw cotton prices
stimulated purchases of cotton yarn oven for very distant months, especi-
ally coarser counts. Roubai;-Tourcoing profited from this movement as
..ell ca Rouoi, Epinal and the Alsacian mills. Spinners at Roubaix have
hopod that the pick-up vould help to reduce the stocks accumulated during
previous periods, but early Tlovc:.bor reports veoro loss satisfactory with
so.me dro- in the rato of sales roportod from Eoubaix and Rouon. Spinning
mill activity is slightly reduced in the Roubaix district through the
modi-Ln of dropping of second shifts or roducing working hours. Activity
in other regions was unchanged.

Business of French oweavig mills is reported g.norally good with
no;w s-los jmado oven into Juno 1931, particularly following the rise in
tho ra":. cotton market at the end of October. This improvoinont in busi-
noss is indicated to be largely due to a relatively active doinand from
the colonies. havingng mill activity is reported as unchanged at pre-
vious favorable levels.
t ,.. ,j .
October and uarly lvovombor odemiand for raw cotton by French spinners
vazs Eouerally quite good and at times oven very active during tho October
period of rising r ILu cotton prices and firm b1sis quotations. Prico-
fixi;s also bocamo h~avy and szinnor purcihaos of futures ran high during
this .'iod. It is sAid that French spiYnner have covered already much of
this so .son's cotton roeuire.1ionts.

Be i 7iu;n

Unsatisfactory conditions in the .B_lgian cotton toxtilo industry
continual during Octobor and the ourly lart of IKovombor. Tio sale of
cotton :-arn a:= :.ell as cotton goode continued difficult and further ro-
duction of mill activity in certain rugions proved unavoidable, with spii,-
ners r-oltively 'orso off. ''he situation, ho'.'ovcr, varies widoly accordinG
to mills, sorj.i still -poorting good conditions. Fabrics o:xorts to South
.:rii'ca: ar. rport;d to have z ffterd coC:e':hat from tio political troubles
t hero.



Roports indic-.to that the :mornth of Octobor has brought soime slight
imTnrojv,,acnt for the Itali.an -cotton teortile i;:.du st'ry, tho h position of vwhijch









C-65 -11-
had been steadily becoming more unsatisfactory over a period of several months.
Spinning mill activity, which had declined from 68.9 per'."^u:tof full cap-
acity in June to 65.7 per cent in August 1930, seems to have risen slightly
in recent weeks as a result of the somewhat improved ratio of sales to
output existing for several weeks. New sales of cotton yarn have been
larger than th5 current level of production, and if this situation contin-
ues it will of course bring a revival of Italian cotton mill activity.
Stocks of cotton yarn, however, are reported still somewh-t above last year,
and unfilled orders considerably below, so that a marked revival must await
further improvement in sales. Mill activity is about 30 per cent below
last year.

In the recent general assembly of the association of the Italian cotton
industry it was pointed out th-t the Italian cotton textile industry has
been encountering considerable difficulties since the beginning of this
year. It was stated that the number employed was reduced from 230,000 to
180,000 workers from the beginning to the middle of 1930, .nd that a decline
in exports is largely responsible for the unsatisfactory developments.

The bankruptcy of a large Italian cotton mill recently was a disturbing
factor to the trade. '

Poland

The pick-up in the Polish cotton textile situation reported during
the Autumn months has been very short-lived. The tempor-ry shortage of
yarn resulting from the curtailment of production brought about by the
yarn cartel gave the yarn market a fictitious appearance and contributed
to a quite unjustified rise in prices. As a consequence, imports from
Czechoslovakia and England rose considerably, the requirements of the
weaving mills have been filled for the present, prices have had to be re-
duced again, and activity, which had been increased from 46 to 58 working
hours per week, was reduced to 52 hours and is now as low as 46 hours again.
Some observers believe that the textile outlook is not very bright in Poland
because of the weakened purchasing power of the farmer through low farm
prices. There can be no doubt, however, that the financial position of the
spinners has greatly improved since the spinner cartel inaugurated its
policy of rigorously controlling production and credit policies..

Soviet Russia

Figures on production of the Russian cotton textile industry during
1929-30 (October-September) which have just been published reflect the
difficulties which have been reported as experienced by the industry in
consequence of considerable shortage of raw material resulting from re-
duced importations of foreign cotton I/ as well as from the somewhat
disappointing crop harvested in 1929. Production of finished fabrics,
which, since April 1930, h.is been running on a level below thr.t of the



1/ Imports during the first h--lf of 1929-30 were about 15 per cent below.
the corresponding period of a ye.r aeo.


I ---- --~








C-65 -12-.

previous year, reached a low point in July and Aug-ast 1930, wheo in addi-
tion to the usual seasonal decrease in production, shortage of raw material
seems to have become acute. The folloaving figures show the- development
of cotton cloth production by months for 1929-30 as compared with 1928-29 lj:

Table 2.- Cotton Cloth: Production in Russia, by months,October
1928 September 1930


month h 1928-29 1929-30

: Million yards Million yards

Oct...................... : 272 :261
Nov...................... : 242 :250
Dec ......................: 248 274
J n ...................... : 249 :249
Feb......................: 250 272
M r. ...... ........... 260 284
Apr ................... ...: 303 289
MHD ......................: 227 : 167
June.....................: 285 170
July.....................: 211 84
Aug ......................: 253 : 71
Sept.....................: 297 156


Total Russian production of finished fabrics in 1929-30 raomuntod to
2,573,000,000 yards compared with 3,090,514,000 manufactured during 1928-29
or a decrease of 16.7 per cent. The original plan, therefore, which provided
an 11.1 per cent increase in the production of finished cotton goods in
1929-30 c.s compared with 1928-29, was executed to the extent of only 75 per
cent.

J npaan

Price of cotton yarn in Japan has declined with the fall in price of
cotton, but the decline in yarn has been less than in cotton, thus leaving
a wider spread between the two prices according, to a cable from Consul
Dickover of Kobe to the Foreign Service of the Bureau of Agricultural .
Economics. Aided by this and by the low valuu of silver Chinese yarn is
now being shipped to Japan in increasing, quantities. This may cause
relaxation of the curtailment rate thus relieving the artificial scarcity
and lowering yarn prices. Hills are now making a good profit aid yarn
output is i-creasin& despite nominal maintenance of the curtailment rate.

1/ It should be noted that the monthly figures on finished goods' pro-
duction do not total up to the figures mentioned for the year as whole.
This discrepancy is probably due to the fact that the monthly figures
were preliminary data, while the total for the year contains revised
figures for separate months. The total of the monthly production figures
for 1929-30 would be 2,529,000,000 yards compared with the final figure
of 2,573,000,000. i











C-65 -13-

The tendency is to produce a larger percentage of coarse yarn, '..-icl. finds
readier sale in nard times. T. is 's resulted in a. decrese in t.ie pro-
portion of Ana.riz:n cotton cons'ued. "ils are still bui ., for i 1.,e'iat
needs only. The production of cloth owed nou ::an _,e in c:-rly Decc: ber
as compared with lIovember but exports r.re incrznsin;L,. For t..e iiith of
November ex:.:orts exceeded any mon-Ith si..ce '" rch,.

Production, acrezae an. croo con-dition reports

United States

Production estimate The Decemb'r forecast jf t:-.e Unitel St-tes ron) vJ,.'.s
14,243,000 bales of 500 pounds T'ros. This was 1J3,000C b-ies below the
iTovenber forecast and apO-roximan.tely 85, 00 bis bclo'" production lnst year.
This season's production is equivalent to a : 'ield of 150.3 poud of lint
per acre on th.e 45,218,000 acres left for Lrvest after abandoni.cnen't 0o 2.1
per cent of the 46,191,C.00 acres in cultivation July 1. This av:rc co yield
is 4.3 o-.unds below the avurae for thi ten ear ,uriod 1919 to 1928. In
South Carolina, Alab: a, Louisinna and Ca.ifornia t-.e crop to the cnd of
Nove.ribcr w:,s turning out soi;,whia.t better t.nii w.s ra;-ticir.ated a monta earlier,
while considerable declines occurred in ".ississi ;i, Texas, Okli oma -icnd
ilorth Carolina and Georgia.

4ualit... of the crop Oi th..i cotton ined )rior to irove.,c r 1 t..is 'c.r,
85.3 per cent was tenderable on futures contract" according to prelimininr..
estinm.tes, w,,rcas only 73.8 ,per cent of t..e gi -.ins to this d-,ta last year
were tc.l~dernble. There was a sinc.llr p.r cent of 1-1/32 in-...-' wv-nich w.as
tundcrable this yar tAian last, th. :-.rcc-tc as bcin; 9.2 and 11.3. Tic
incroasc in turnd,'rabilit.y this :" r as co,,rI '.vwitr. last was d.-, 1.r.:cly
to staple length. Last ~ear thor.. was 20.2 anteo-.d.-'rabic in th.- stoloi
lngt'i -'~icrcas theru was only 14.0 per cant t..is ea-r. T.,e Cr.,.t.st :,r-
cunta.1- increase tiis -car over last v-.s in 15/,6 i7 c.s and 31/32 inches.
This :,rou.i rorcscnting 5.5 opr cent more of tL;- total thain it -'.id last
year. (S T; blb c.- follr.:;i. .)


r









C-65 -14-

Tabl.-. Gra.d, sta.ple 1 :rth jnd to:-dcrobilit-,; of cotton ginned
in tnc United. Stat.s, prior to bovonibcr 1, 1929 and 1930


Item


1 i29


1930


Total Crop f'.s reported by the
.;reau of the Census)
Total Aicric-aii U .la-nd
Total A "i ricUn-IJR:tian

Grades (i .ri -, U:l:.nd):
White, .iddlinL aond better
White, Strict Lo'.. and Low ; i.,.dling
WVit.:, B.10o': Lo": L..iddling
Spott.., ar.d cYllow Tinged
Lij:it Y. 11,v Stained, Yellow
Stniici, C-ray, Bluc Stained


Te.nr
c.-r
r


r


Ldrabilit., on Section 5 futures
ont ra.cts (An ric.:.n Upl-,and):
L'ot.L.i T:;nderblc
T.:.de-rublc 7/3" to 1-1/32" inc.
Tmndl'rablc over 1-1/32"
Cota U:nt,-ndcrable
Unjte..ldcrablc- in Grade
Unftendcrabic in Staple
Untcndcr..blc in both Grade andSt.ac:


Staple (,lcr'icjn UTpljnd):
Und-r 7/8
7/8 and 2,-/32
15/16 ,..d 31/32
1 xi. 1- 1-/32
1-1/1S ..d 1-,3/32
1-1/3 ,' ,.-. longer


: I/ :
: BElcs :

:10,391,900:
:10,891,100:
10,800:


8,202,400:
: 1,450, -0: O
S 39,500
: 969,100:


-1,100:



8,569,000:
7 ,.37 ,3 01:
1,231,700:
2,212l,100:
92,200:
2,93,500:
26,400:


2,219,00:
S4,061,500:
: 2,092,200:
1,262,700:
664,500:
580,000:


Per /: I
cent : B.1Cs :
: :
100.0:10,865,600:
99.9:10,855,100:


.1:


75.4:
13.3:
.4:
8.9:
.

2/ :



78.8:
67.5:
11.3:
21.2:
.8:
20.2:
.2:


20.4:
37.3:
19.2:
11.6:
6.1:
5.4:


10,500:


8,497,500:
1,292,000:
33,300:
811,700:

4,500:



9,261,700:
8,267,500:
991,200:
1,593,400:
49,200:
1,519,100:
25,100:


1,544,200:
4,254,000:
2,680,400:
1,381,100:
656,600:
338,800:


1/ Ru:.nin,- b.lcs, counting round as half bales.
2/ L:ss tha.n o.ne-tenth of one per cent.


Por
cent

100.0
99.9
.1


78.3
11.9
.3
7.5

2/



85.3
76.1
9.2
14.7
.5
14.0
.2


14.2
39.3
24.7
12.7
6.0
3.1


____~~__~ ~_~~


*












0-65 -15-


Ginnin.gs to December Cotton ,:in-nd from the 1.'30 crop prior to Decem-
ber 1 omountcd. to about 12,835,000 ru..in-: bloes :comnp-.rod with 12,853,000
ond 12,560,000 b.les ginned d1urir.n the correspondirng.p riods of 1929 and
1928 res.pcctively, according to the Bureau of.the Census. Ginnin.;s up
to December 1 this year were only 18,000 b-.lcs below the. inni:ns to
this da.tc l.st Tyc.r. This me'.-.s that a considerably larger percentage of
the crop a-.s boon ginned up to Dccember th-.a had bec:. ginned to th.-t date
last yorer.

World sumnrnry of production -ad '.cracge -

Estiim.tes of the 1;30-31 crone hive- been received to date from 13
countries which produced about 35 rcr cc't of the estimated .7orld produc-
tion last car. In those 13 coa..itrics tn.- estim..ted -production this
year is 9.2 per cent above last ,c-r' s Sroduction. lRssia shows the
greatest increase of any important country .although the. incomplete
December Lstirmate for Indi. is sli htly above last year. A number of the
smaller countries also report increased production. The total world crop
however is c::eccted to be less than 1 i.cr cent higher than in 1929.

The estimated acrcreae planted to cotton in 13 countries reporting
to date (not the s.,iie 13 which h;ivc reported production) for th. 1930-31
crop'oqqu..ls 0.5 per cent above aI.st .year's r.creajo. Treso -13 countries
had 93 per ce-.t of the estiimted world tot.'i c.crc-.:c last year.
(3Sc- Ta.jle o.. followi; :. ; )






-16-

'Jabl- 4.- Cotton: .cro-..o and _roliucion in countries reporting for


H''

;I


1930-31, r ithi cbLrparisons


:. vocrago :
Iton and co'u;try :1909-10 to: 1928G-29


United St_-.toc ....... :
India L/ .............*
Ru -ia ......
Egant .......... .... .
U anda ...............:
Chosun. (Korca) .. .... :
o.10::ico ........ .......:
.la;10 oLytian Sudan..:
G-r cco ...............:
Spain ................:
..laouito (Syria and :
Lo-obnon) ........:
, lgcria s..............:






'
BIndia ul ..............:
2ot.al above
countries ......:
tt.vorld total
Cxoi. China 6.8* ..:

Product ion o /
United Lt.tos ........


1,000
acrCs _
34,152
21,361
1,569
1,71-3
58
146
253
44
19


: 1929-30


* .
: 1,000 : 1,000
: acrs : across
: 45,341 : 45,793
: 24,992 : 23,536
2,261 : 2,560'
1,805 : 1,912
699 : 684
503 :459
502: 492
S284: 369
38 : 35
21 : 24

9 : 17
12 14
13 13


.1930-31
rilroli'.i


1,000
across
45,218
22,964
3,768
2,162
725
463
'400
398
49
47


: Pcrcontage
.1930-31 it
:of 1929-30


Par cent
98.7
97.6
147.2
113.1
106.0
100.9
81.3
107.9
140.0
195.8


37 : 217.6
14 : 100.0'
14 107.7


59,349 : 76,480 : 75.908 : 76.259 ; 100.5


r~ n
62,500 : 82,400 : 810900 : 82.300 :
. rCifl 1 l,, n l nnn 1 nfl


I
1


''pt .............. :
iIo-:ico .. I.... :
i~n.g1o i.I-_--.ti-.n Sudan .:
Choson (i'orca) .......:
GreecC .... .. .......:
Tan. -n/i '.:: ........... .5/

Union of So. .-fricu ..:
S .in .... ........ ...:
Bulcari a .............:
;looria ..............:7/
Total above :
countries ......:
tst.':'orld total,
i -n-il C-n : I e%


ales
13,033
3,529
905
1,453
187
14


J., .-; ,
bale s
14,478
5,018
1,137
1,672
278
142
150
15
23
10
3
3
6


:4/





*


bales
14,828
3,910
1,351
1,725
246
137
139
12
23
8
3
4
8


: :
: 293 Q^ .


22 9%


2slnf In


2S~Ifl !


balot
14,243
3,977
1,950
1,697
186
171
152
25
18
12
9
5
5


24 450 M


potfcoant
96.1'.
*101.7
144.3
98.4
75.6
124.8
110.1
208.3
78.3
150.0
300.0
125.0
62.5


109.2


26_400


OfficiL.l Sourcccs nd Intermntional Instituto of rgriculturo,


oecopt as


oth.r-.:izo noted.
I/ Third estimate incomplete. // In blocs of 478 pounds net. 3/ firstt
Sstinzto, incoimloto. 4/ 'sti aato report d by Amnrican agricultural
Comiaissioncr Stocr)o at Berlin. 5_/ Averaso for four years. _/ Lo tlan
1,000 balcs. 7_/ vor go for thruoo y-'rs.
Cori.ilod by the Foroigi Service of the Bureau of iCriculturz-l Economid
from theo lLtoot; available sources.


C-55


2


w 1" -- 1iF -- --


- -


u2 394
---A.- a prr- I --- J----


PA 0 2. .0 0 .
~~~UII~~ -i,---L ,00 Uvli I 1 -----


IY13-l'f:







0-65 -17-


The crop is now estimated to be 1,697,000 bales of 478 pounds net,
according to a cable received from the International Institute of agriculture e
at Rome. This is a decrease of 46,000 bales under the first estimate of this
season's crop. published in the November report and 28,000 bales under the final
estimate of last season's crop. The estimated production of Sakellaridis is
non 456,000 bales, 23,000 bales belov: the earlier estimate and 102,000 bales
bolow the final estimate of last season. All other varieties are now estimated
to be 1,241,000 balos, also a decrease of 23,000 bales under the earlier
estimate, but an increase of 74,000 bales over the final estimate last yuar.
A decree has boon issued prohibiting the planting of Sa3o:llaridis cotton in
Egypt except in throo provinces, according to a cable from P. K. Norris, Cotton
Specialist of the Foreign Agricultural oSrvice in Cairo. In those throo
provinces the acroage is to be limited to 40 per cent of the present acreage.
In 1929 the area in cotton was 1,912,000 acres of which 880,000 acres wore in
Sakollaridis cotton. About 85 per cent of the Saklollaridis acreage is in the
provinces of Gharbiya, Bohoira and Daqahliya.

It is ostimatod that 769,000 bales of 478 pounds not of cotton including
lintors, havo boon ginned in Egypt up to Dccoubor 1, according to a cable
received by the Foreign Service of the Bureau of Agricultural Ecenomics from
the International Institute of Agriculture at Roinc. This is a decrease of
98,000 bales or 11 par cent under the 867,000 blos ginned at the same date
last year, and 209,000 balos or 21 per cent less than rrcro ginned by December
1 of 1928. Of the total ginnirgs to the first of Decouaber, 163,000 bales woro
of tho Sakollaridis variety. This is 83,000 bales or 28 p.r cent loss than
woro ginned at the samo date last year and 114,000 bales or 41 par cent less
than voro ginned by December 1 of the preceding season. It is estimated that
589,000 bales of other varieties loro ginned, a decrease of 34,000 bales
or 5 per cent under the estimate of 623,000 bales at the same date last year,
and 89,000 bales or 13 per cent less than vjore ginned by December 1 of 1928.

This season there woro 17,000 bales of lintors ginned, 1,000 bales
loss than at the same date lazt year and 6,000 loss than by Decei.ber 1 of
1928.

Soviet Russia

licather conditions appear to have boon very favorable for the ripening
of the cotton plant late into Octobor, according to numerous Soviet reports,
and the production outlook for Russian cotton this year is very promising ,
notwithstanding the do 7hAvard revision of the acreago estimate some wooks ago.
Tho yield is reported considerably above last year in Forghana Valley, which
is the iast important cotton producing region of the Union, and vhore a good
and, in some parts, an exceptional crop is reported to have been harvested.

The 1930-31 cotton procuring plan is fixed at 1,397,600 tons
of unginned cotton, which would moan from 420,000 to 430,000 tons of


IlIII II I






0-65


ginned cotton or 1,937,000 to 1,983,000 bales of 478 pounds net, depending
upon the ginning outturn. The consumption of cotton by the growers them-
selves is normally very small. There is a possibility, however, of some
loss of cotton through delayed harvesting, as well as a possible increase
in home consumption of cotton by the growers themselves, in view of the
reported poor supply of industrial goods in the cotton regions. The beyss"
(rich cotton growers) are also reported to be leaving cotton unpicked and
to be planting winter wheat in the cotton fields. Of all factors, however,
the shortage of labor is the most important, as this problem was difficult
to cope with a year ago, when the crop was much smaller. Some mention of
the loss of cotton in consequence of untimely harvesting has already been
made in the local press and, though it is difficult to say to what an ex-
tent this has been the case, this loss is sure to increase as the season
advances.

The 1930 cotton procuring campaign started some weeks ago, with the
press complaining at its slow pace L.s compared with plan. Up to November
10, only 44.2 per cent of the yearly plan was procured as compared with the
70.4 per cent contemplated in the plan. The harvesting difficulties in
consequence of labor shortage, .:nd other organization difficulties are chief-
ly responsible for the uns.tisfactory development of the cotton procuring
campaign, but the shipment of cotton to the textile mills is reported to be
in line with current plans, though it should be noted th..t this refers only
to the very early part of the season.

Mexico

The present. cotton. crop .in.Mexico is.b estimated to be. 185,800 .bles.of:
478 pounds net according to r report from the Internation-.l Institute of
Agriculture at Rom-. Phis is a decrease of 60,200 biles under last year's
crop and 92,200 bales undr the crop of 1928. The acreage this season is
esti Latud to be 400,000 acres, a decrease of 92,000 acres under last season
and 102,000 acres luss th.-n in 1928-29.

Anglo-Egypti'.n Sudan

The cotton crop in Anglo-Egyptia.n Sudan is now estii.u.tod to be
171,000 bales of 478 pounds net, according to a cable received by the Bureau
of Agricultural Economics from the International Institute of Agriculture
at Rjme. This is the sa.me as the jstirnm:te it the same date last season.
The final estimate w:.s 137,000 bales. The acrecage this season is estimated
to be 398,000 acres, an increu.se of 25,000 acres over last year's acreage
of 373,000 acres at this same date and 29,000 acres more thin the final
estimate fzr last y.;ur.

Brazil

The prospects for the cotton crop which were reported earlier in the
season to be fairly god, have been entirely reversed by the drought. There
is little doubt now that production will be below normal, according to :.
report received from the United St-tes Consul at Pornambuco in December.

China

The present crop is expected tJ be s.mewhtt larger than last season's
crop %f 1,960,000 b..les ;f 478 p-unds net, according t. a cable received
from Agricultural Commissioner Nyhus.


-18-






C-65 -19-

Miscellaneous News

Special Analysis of the worldd Cotton Situation

'The world d Cotton Situation with Outlook for 1931-32 and the Long-
time Outlook for Southern Agriculture", Miscellaneous Publication No. 104,
which was prepared by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics is now available
for distribution. Copies may-be obtained upon request.

Investigation of Drop in Cotton Futures

The joint resolution, H. J. Res. 195 by Senator Sheppard of Texas
which was referred to the Senate last June, but was not acted upon before
adjournment, passed the Senate December 3, 1930 and was sent to the House.
This resolution provides for the authorization of the Secretary of Agri-
culture through the Grain Futures Administration to investigate the cause
of the declines in the price of cotton in 1926, 1927, 1926, 1929, and the
first half of 1930. The measure authorizes appropriations of 4125,000 for
the investigation.

Textile Foundation Makes Definite Research Plans

At a recent meeting of the board of directors of the Textile Founda-
tion which was established last June under an act of Congress, definite
plans were made to conduct scientific research for the benefit of the
textile industries and allied branches. The directors decided to: (1)
request the United States Institute for Textile Research to assemble data
on researches which have been completed or are.now beint conducted on tex-
tile problems, (2) request the American Association of Textile Chemists
and Colorists to extend its work on color, (3) ask the Smithsonian Insti-
tute of Washington to complete textile material dictionary, and (4) plan
for a major study of certain aspects of the distribution of textiles.

Alexandria market closed two weeks.

Beginning December 11, 1930 the Egyptian Government has suspended
cotton futures trading for two weeks with the hopes that demand conditions
will improve by that time.


- ---- 0 -





':i

























I
`i











0-65 CONT12T S P?.~


1 World pros ct . . 1 2
2 Pric,.s . . 3
3 Stocks :;,d movements . . 3 5
4 Tc::tlil situation . 3-
5 uro c . . 7 -12
6 J-p-. . . . 1 -13
7 Production, occroc :and crun condi tion r- orts. 13 -13
8 iriscollrl cous s . 19


TABL S

1 Cottoi.: W.orld visible su:p.il of A.nr-ricac. a:d.. otncr growths
on lDcomnber 12, 1';5L, 1929 r-:.d 1930 4
2 Cotton Cloth: Proiotioin) i. brussir., b:, monitns, October
1928 Scptember 193 . 12
3 Gradc, staple length a.nd t--d.jrr.bility of cotto.i cGi;.ncd
in the United Str.tis, prior to iovrmbcr 1, 1929
.nd 1930 . . 14
4 Cotton: Acrcr.\Io ind production in countric r orti:i for
1930-31 with comparios . .. 16


I;. -













.... ..


S S OF FOR












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