World cotton prospects

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Material Information

Title:
World cotton prospects
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics. -- Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Publisher:
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Division of Statistical and Historical Research.
Place of Publication:
Washington
Frequency:
monthly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
- C-133 (Oct. 1936).
General Note:
Reproduced from typewritten copy.
General Note:
Description based on: C-59 (June 1930).

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 026660256
oclc - 30588060
Classification:
lcc - HD9070.4 .Un311
System ID:
AA00013009:00018

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Cotton situation
Related Items:
Statistics on cotton and related data


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Full Text


I-IT.3L) ST.'.TS DE? .RT1:17'T 07 '.GRICRTLITRE
B..reaL. of agriculturall J.coomircs
"*as'hi.i ..ton

C-78 iarch 29, 2

!70tL CO'LJ. ?.. S.- T3

SL 'r-. rL


Cotton textile .:il! activity duv.rinr the first half of this season :'vrs

'li--_er than dLrin tie s'-.:.e period list season in most of the important

cotton consuvjmino co..l trio.s o' t.I ..orld, according to the semi-annual report

of the InternatioInal Feder.tioi;, st-tcs the Bureau of agricultural Sconomics.

Th- follovini; .are some of the important countries coiisumi:-.;, more cotton during,

th. first half of 1931-32 than in: the s:ime period last season ;iith the

percentage increases; Unitedl States, 6.8; Gr&2at Britain, 24.2; Japan,12.5;

G-3rmany, 12.1; It,.ly, 1.8; andL India, 7.5. .J'.o to tIhe lo.? prices of

AmuricL.n cotton relative to jriccs o' Ioroi.rn oro'.ths the ccnsu.L:t'.on of

Amorican cotton in molost of those coumtri-s increased more than the tot-%l. In

China there 'r .sa m raturial incroaso in the consumption of Amorican ibut th;

total of all i:inds docrSseil slih::tl. Total mill cor.sl r tion in Fr_.nuoc was

al.ist 17 pjr c.nt brlo.,! c.'-_: first half of 1930-31, .ltho.. L only 6 per cent

bjlo.: the last :'.f of l-.ct se'.sbn. Consiuition reports hi.vo not boon roccived

for other countries. RD sortss inidic..t': that -ra-zil h-s beon operating at -.

higher r:at than l'..st sO'.son. Tih not -offect of all ch i. ;s in the activity

and corsur.iption of the cotton *ills of th.. rorld during the first h...lf of the

soc.son resulted in an incr., s: in t:.3 cons-ui'rtion of ..i;ricc.n nd. :.yptiaL of

about 12.5 .nd 23.1 per c.:nit, respectively, :nd a dcecreo.so of 9.6 -nd 6.4 per

cent in the cons-inption of Indli.ni .n'. Sundries ihon co..) r.o :ith t:h s-'me

-priod l..st saoson.. 2_.. -or!: Cotton L :ch..no. Service s3ti;/atcs th-t worldd

cons:'.:-tion of :uasric.-;n ./.s :.: 14.4 -r cent. Th o tot.l cons'.:.'ition o" ll

kinds :.s reported b the Fo' cr:.tion '..s v-p 2.7 p>r 3 t.






0-73


Ilill ;.ctivit- i'l the TnitA- St-:tcs since th.- end of Janua-ry h">s con-

tinu'.od a.bov. l.st -.r. In C-r-.t 3ritain mills ari sA.id to be more active

than in oithe.r 1931 or 1950. On thie ontine:nt, the cotton. textile industry

is co.rpl-ining of tha co.;v:i-ttition froon --rot Brit-in and, .:itP' the exception

of GerCm.y end possibly Lt::l miast of the countries :arc opor-.tin; at lower

levels thi.n in the, first quartr of 1931. ,.Ty con-tinjnt:.l countries arj also

h.j.ipr red by rol.tivol;j noe'; irIa irt n.ld portt restrictions a.d ctur:'ncy difficult-

i-s. J-.p.:'.n a.ni Idia co tini'.- to mnint".in t'i-ir J-,il *.ctivit, at hih' levels

but in ChinaL the conditions .".rouind ShanGhai h.-.v storp_jl.a ..ost of the mills of

th'V.t ir.-ortant cont'r for a tiroe. iDuin the first 3f -1.rch son.io of the mills

resumed operations and arn prroduction ::ws ostira.-.to: to Do c.bout 30 to 40 per

cent of capacity co-n.-.rci *.-ith 10 prr cent for 1 short period ini Fobruiry and

70 p'r cent or more of ca.pacitr, earlier in tihe sec-son..

The export raov-n;t of domestic cotton continues to be a bright spot

ii tih raw cotton situ-tio. Contr-r- to t12 usual son.0:i .1 decline in

c::,orts from- Janu-.r- to Febru-.r; there -.:as an incrca_ s this ."c-r of about

51,3000 b-.1.cs rosultiin il t:.- l:.r. es' Fjbru-.r- uxipo-rts since 1927 and, :'ith

that captionion, sinc- 1915. T',.. total for the soc.son to the C.nd of February

-ts abo..t 21 p)er lcnrt largr this so-esai than last and 12 ;pr cent raoro th-n in

the 1929-30 season. T.i- l.-.rc :c)orts Hiavu no doubt b-cn -an important factor

in th pricj r.dvAuncc ;':ich fro., October 5 to IIMrch 2 amounted to 1.88 cents per

pound. From T.I.-rch 2 to "'-rc: 21, ..o':-ovor, a considjr.-.bi part 0.34 cents of

this -.dv-.nc: *.v..s lost.

Ro-orts on t3o r.:ov..m..:.t of forci- n cotton, -.s .0el -.s Lin -.inls "ind

prordu'.ction eti nt:)s, co,-.t;l.: t.O point t3 tot-.1 "~ri n '-rodc-..tion at loo.st

1,3C'0,000 bb.-.ls loss thin in 1930-31.


-0-





$-79


-3-


Prices

Fro;.- th-e m.iidil o- P,~cri.-.ry to earl hTarch cotto". prices in domestic
.Iark:ts advance.! al.:st oner-half cent per pou.:i' and on MIarch 2 the average
of the 10 spot .:iar:ets fir :.id:1iinY 7/8 inch :.s 6.77 cents which was 1.88
cents above the Octo'br lo7 alnd the hi i:-.:-m .that the cro,. u.o..id be l1:.r I'r.: larch 2 to I.Irch 21, hoa/ever, prices
declined about on.;-t.Air coat per pouJl.

I.i general nricecs of American -Iiddling 7/8 inch in fori.. r-- markets in
torr.:s Of .Lold i-vQvo :moved sounoha-t like those in domestic :markets. Prices of
I.ndian cotton d.:ri .' F.'bruar.' and Iiarch have showvi less str-...-th than A:ierican
as nay be soon fro. thi accjx:..p.uv.ing table. For the first throe :ooel:s of
:arch the av.er%,c of thr.3o irnportint tyops of Indian cotton avcragd 90.2 .Jr
cent of An.r.rican .Liidlin" and Lo;: Iiiddling at Liverpool, vweroas in February
they: avord. .,d 9'5.6 per c nt and in January 95.7 per cent. Indian cotton,
ho;/ovor, is still abnorv:.llly high relative to American.


Table I.- Liv.rpool spot prices of Indian cotton oxprrss.l as a
oercont.;cu of .:..ric:In, Liverpool by months, 1925-27,
1030-31 and 12.31-52 _/


-ont.. 1926-27 1930-31 1931-332
.: .r cent : :Prent ~ Per cont

.u .. : 35.6 61.2 32.1
S -'t. .. 86.2 66.9 81.8
Oc .. ; 9. ; 71.0 : 86.6
i v. : 88.8 : 73.9 90.3
Dc. 0.5 71.9 90.9
Jan. .. ... 39.8 72.2 95.7
eb. : '0.0 75.2 93.6
..ar .. 89.8 74.6 : 2/ 90.2
39.7 74.6
S ... 89.9 74.9
Juno .... : 90.9 78.5
July .. 2 : 3.5

-J ;vor:...ac -f Frida7, q.'. taions for three types of Indian (iully :-.1, broach;
fi.ij, Ooirra; a..l full-- 3) 1, sci.'.C) divided. by average on saen d:.ys of Am3ria-n
-iddlini and L:.; .iddlinj.
2. -.vvrao fjr first uhroe Frii.-ys of Iarch. Only Friday quotations 'ro
v.vail1ablc curr..Int -.





C-70


Stocks and ..ove.-ont

!iill stoc-s of r.:.. cotton Lc.t th.j eand :. Janu-r.'

The total stocks .: r:.-'.:" cCtton- hold by the drills :.' the world Veore
about 1.1 per c-nt lri -c' -t t:L. end of Jatu.l.r: tis :r th an -.t .10h s'_-.
tiLie in 1931 whilj r-..1 stoc's of '.loric:.n .'ore 1.7 per cent largor. This
incrwe.sc in Anrric.,"n -:hich a. ..,.uit d to 29 ,?r 30 ru im.i :1 b:..l. s -/'-.s '-ia.l0ost offset
by the docroesos in India;- (191,030 rnni.:: bales or 1,.4 1per cent) and
Sundries (38,000 balls or 5.1i pr centt. Thelore ::s an increase of 4,000 bales
or 2.0 per cent in jill stock-s of E'ypti._J..

A.ncrican cott-a

The 2,710,000 rLUrnniir b'.los .'f :'.irican cotton hild by the mills of
the ~.:rld c.r ..rs 'ith .2,9 .1:O, ,000 b-lcs hold on the smino d..to in 1931, according
to reports of th Intern.tion.l Fcderat1 i-.n of 1Ir.stcr Cotton Spinners' and
-i r.nar.ct'urrs' A.s 'JCciati ..-:. .-ill stocks of Americ.-n .t the c.-d of Jarurry
this year, whlillc l-r-r tl'.n c ;-e.r .o, .:oro smaller t'ian fcr any other yc-.r
'si-n l2 12. and '- r 272,9000 br.lcs or 9.1 per cent bclov. the record stocks of
1923-27. A 1 '.r;c. port the incro.so this yc)..:r over 1.st w:.s duo to incroasos
in Japtpn 1-d t:- : Unitc St'-.ts and c. s.:all b.-le incro-.so but largo porcentsgo
(67 per cent) incro-.so in Chini,. 7ill stcksc of fu:r.lrica:i in Groat Britain :-r.ro
only 2,000 b-.ls lisaror than In 1931. With the to~al stocks of -.lmoric..n cotton
:t all loca.iiti s theo l.rgost on record, and. .,ith the o-zpply of -uAicrican cotton
this season 5,730,0,'0 b-les or 28 per cent largor thain 1-st season, it is
v znrrnt .'r.o o ..rri
pp.rant th.t pianrs c.r. c.rr.yinh, a ich snallor proportion of the supply
t .an in most -.c.rs. lFr-.: the sta-ndpoint of the number of months 2.f supply on
hnId, h-./over, tho :.ills ,3jnra.lly -re firl-y vwll stocked '.ith ran cotton.

I.-i..n cotton

The sCanli supply a-:. rolL.tivoly hi h prices :,f Ir.dian c Atto:. m-.veo
rosultoed in a.docre.ac o 'f r.li st 100,030 oblos (16.4 per cent) in mill stoc.:s
ST:idiian cott ,r. dospit' tlh f-ct th.-:t -he consu'pti :n of Indi-i.n during the
first six months of thie season v/:.s .rl.lst 300,000 br.ls less thar- fror. z .u'vl.st
to J.-u .r'y in 1c'30-31. ..ill stocks of Indim.n cotton wrer the sn:-llost since
192f for that p-,ri.: of the year. '.Jhil, the stocks fi.ur S by countries a.rc not
avil"able yeit, it seo. is v.r: likely in vio:e. of the 1.ro 'decline in i'.ports of
Indi.n cotton into Japa: that : substanti.;l decline in Indi.nl stocics took pltca
in J-.p,. cs: ,.:ills.

Eptian i andi Sundri:es

The Ferdr'tion. report sh.:-'od -/ry little chance fro. 1 .st :;.-:r in the
nill stocks :-f SE-yptia.:- cottonI, the incro.ase jf 2.0 p.r cn.t :UijIunvin', to only
4,000 ba.les, but thoy v:oere the third l-rgost of t:w l1st t-.-clvo years.

The decr1-.s- of o1.l-- 38,000 b"o:e1 iii the stoc':s .?f Si-dries cott.'. hold
by ills -robbably ru'fl cts so : incre .so in stoc.:s of 3-'.ssia.i c :tton porh'ps
partially J7ffsottin a2 decre.mse in Chinese cc.ton. It is ro orted that th: shor
crop and. uZ-isttl1i c x.,'iti: s in Chi:.-. h:ave ru .tly reducIe the receipts of
Chinese cotton this s.-:s. ;. .'y .ear a-.o the report sh.-:u. th-t Chinese cotton








Son=rt-. utod an Lumsually larr, pr-,porti lx of the tot'4l stoc':c of Sundries cotton.
The larger crops in Russia and Brazil make it seem likeTly 1 f.t mill stocks in
these countries may have increased somewhat.

T.1ill stocks of all cotton

The Federation's re-:ort on stocks of all kinds of cotton held by mills
in some of the indivilual countries has been received. This shows that total
mill stocks in Great Britain i:nc:eased 8,000 bales or 4.5 per cent compared
witi- a total increase in all .,ills of the world of 50,000 bales or 1.1 per cent.
In GC-r. anr, the total incre s*-.l 23.000 bales from February 1, 1931 compared with
?7ebr-uar ., 192", or 15. _. er cent, in Italy there as a decrease of 8,000 bales,
Chia-i sho..ed a. decrease of lo,C0C' bales, India 38,000 bales and Firance a decrease
of 75,000 bt.les or al.,;ost :2 :-er cent. In the United States there was an
inc-'ease of about 19,000 b ils.

.;.pr.r".nt su. ply off i'..erica.i cotton in UniJted States

There was a decrease i;. the apparent supply of Imerican cotton re..n ii.n:
i: the United States iurin February of 1,4130,00 bales (440,000 bales consumed
domestic ally and 970,000 biles e::-orted) whereas in Februarl 19.&1 the decrease
an.:-.u-tei to only 352,000 bale3. Both cons-oirtion and sex;orts were larg,-r in
Febr-ary this year than in !'.51. The appwcrent supply still in the United Stat.s,
ho-..'ever, was much above a yc r s-_.o and was probably the largest ever held in the
U.iitei States at this ti.ie f .ep.r. The total disa-pearance of American cotton
(do..ictic consmunption plus ex-.,orts) for thf first seven .ont Ls of this season
totaled 8,933,3000 bales co.ipared :!ith 7,702,000 bales durin- the corres)ondin%
period of last season.

:rnorts froi. the UInited Sta-tes

:.rin., Pebruar-y this o-.r domestic exports aioounted to 970,0)0 rumnil -
bales compared :.ith 4;3,00)i bale3 in the same r'onti last season and 402,000 bales
in February i.30. Februar-- 1'.2 exports were the second largest for the nonth
since 1915, and were only :,3CZ J b-.les less than in February 1"2' The exports
in Fetcrary were 51,003 bnles larger than in January, whereasa s there is r.E-.ally
a .:-arked seasonal decline fro.i January to February. Duringi' the past five years
the decline has aver'v-ed* aboL.ut 12.,000 bales or 17 per cent. The total exports
for the first seven iionths this season amoivnted to 5,'25,030 balcs, an increase
of 1,015,000 bales over the .-:e i-cri-i last season, and r6 2,000 bales lar.:,er
than durin Au.j.:.st to Fetr'.r'.r 12J-30, these e:-orts were the second lar:.cst
for the per od sinco t'.i l'192J-27 season r.nl were only 265,000 bales or 4.3 per
ce:.t 1o.ss than in 1928-2'...

T.'e Ori.-nt continues to tale l-re amorcits d&.spito the fact that cott i;
riovi_ through Shaniai .o:.'. tered consiierAtle difficulties in the form of
var- '.l h insurance chiarLes and co.niested warchoutse conditions. :5any ste.:.r.,irs
di3sch: rJcd the cotton at 'ob, Japan, and at :7oikonL,. .::ports to Japan during ,
Febr.'.i.-r ere -about four times as lar e as during, February last year and were
th" lar ,ost ,~onthl-l exports on record. Great Britain also continued to take
r.erc than last season and in Februar r took more than tice -.s much as in February
'130. Ger.aany tool: very little Am:nricar cotton lurlin.j the early part of
the season, but luring tle last four i.onths (iovebber to Februar') has becn


-5-


C-78





C-78


t:i.(in ; larger amwiounts than a 'ear ocrlior and 'urin. February. exports to
Germa~iy sho-'ed very little seasonal decline and were the largest for the
month since 1927. A.ltho .J;', exports to France were smaller this February
than a year ago, exports to France along with those to Japan and the United
Kingdom --re larger than in January.

exportss of Indian cotton

During the four '.-eels ended 1.arch 10, 1952, total exports of re-. cotton
fro.i India amounted to only 103,000 running bales, less than one-fourth as
large as in the same period last year and only a little r.ore than one-fourth
as large as in the correso onding wjoeks in 1,30. Those report figures, which
were taken from the Coimmecrcial and Fin.ncial Caronicle, show that during
these four weeks exports to C-reat Britain, as *.ell :s to the Continent, .'ere
only slightly over one-fifth as lar1-e as in 1931 and exports to Japan and
Chi/i& a little more than one-fourth as lar.e. Earlier in the season exports
w.eore higher relative to last season and the season before, but havc been very
low all season. The result is that for the season to iarch 10 total exports
'.'ere 55 per cent belo.-, those of the August 1 to I.arch 10 period last season.
For this period total exports amounted to 1,002,000 running b .les, a decrease
of 1,209,000 bales as comprarod with 1950-31. This decrease would be equivalent
to about 1,012,000 bales of 478 pounds and, as stated above, the exports of
American have increased by more than this amount. As has been stated from time
to time, this increase in foreign purchases of .'-merican and decrease in Indian
is due to the relative prices of the t:wo gro-wths which in turn is due largely
to the relative supplies of each.

E:norts from Alexandria

During part of this season (particularly in October) Egyptian cotton
.ricas '.ere rather high relative to .rAmrican cotton of somc'what comparable
quality, and luring that p.-riod exports of Zgyptian cotton from '.lexandria fell
considerably below- those of a year earlier, but during most of the season
E.3ptian cotton prices ha:.ve not been so high relative to :.merican and during
rost of this period exports have been larger than during the corresponding
period in 1930-31. From .'.v.ust 1 to ilc.rch 9 total exports from Alexandria
amounted to 695,000 running_ bales, an increase of 121,000 bales or 21 per cent
over the corresponding period last season. During the four v;ae!:s ended I.arch 9
exports totaled about 114,000 bales or about 38 par cent above those of the
February 11 to search 9, 151 period. For the season to ]arch 9, purch.1ses by
the United States increased 7,000 bales fro..- the very lo.. level of 1950-31.
Great Britain took 48 per cent more, an increase of 86,000 b .las. The Continent
and India combined show'.ed an increase pf 27,000 bales or about 7 per cent
according to figures carr'.d in the Commercial and Financial Chronicle.

.orld visible supply of foreign cotton

On .March 11 the visible supply of foreign cotton amounted to 1,826,3))
b-l;.s, 30 per cent below a g ar earlier and 34 per c:nt below that of two
years previous. 1ost of the decrease, :-s has been noted on previous dates was
in the stocks at Bombay, and, only recently, stocks at .1l.sandria have become
smaller than a year ago, as a result of the rather lar&4 exports and smaller
receipts (since Septe.mber 1) at Alexandria. Since August I receipts at





JI '3 ^7-

.';:.ondria have beor. ab"o' the s.-1 .-rioC last sC:-.sL, It reccipJts last
.'-.;ust '..'ore unusual' lar.I; c .. to ith latu-.to of iniinH s .:iichw'has been
explained previously (s3oo W/o-rd Cottoiln rospects, Fbr2u.r
Tk::tile Situation

.or.ld consr.p 'itri:- L the first alf of 191-3

Froi.t ..xust 1 to JurwI.yn- 31- this season the total -.orld consumption of
ericaica; cotton mounted to ,'-:.D,0J0 runnin b:les accor..U:"; to a report
rec.It.l- released b' tic Intern-tionlal FeJ.eration of :.Aster Cotton Spinners
a'd M'lrnufacturers ..ss.tciations. his ".:s an increase n_ 6b2,0030 ales or
12.5 ?er c-ant over t'ie co'-res on:d.ig .oriod in 1.0--51. lere .-as an incre ase
of about 200,'300 bales i.- cons.laption both in lie U-nitse States af.i J.- ".:. Of
the remairin 262,00' o:ale increase, China accointed for a little less than
100,000 bales 'n'd ,reai Britain slihtl:' over 100, 30 -bales. Det-iled reports
are not yet availabl.- b countries, but in vie.:- of the fact that a total
cons-.ition of all co;:ton-, in Ger,.-i-r and Ital- '3ere 1r xjr than in the
corres:ondini, -erio- lSst season it seems likely that these countries consumed
more :--merican cotton th?.n in the first half o 1930-31. It should be noted
that the N- Yor:; Cotton ..:.il-.ne Service is using a much larger estimate for
Chinese corns-.U1tion of .'-erican *--ni that their -world total for .Zmerican is
5,150,030 bales or -:n incr..ase over the sae period last season of 14.4 per cent.

substantial aio'.unt of the increase in cons.n.' tion of Amierican cotton,
as reported by the Federation, :zas at the expense of Indian. During this period
coinsu~p;tio:i of Indian :..lo-lnted. to about 2,724,000 running bales, a decrease of
289,0'.0 b les or 9.0 -er co.t. The 23.1 per ce;nt increase reported in the
consur:,lption of EB.; ptian cotton -.:.as a much la.'er percentaCe incre .se than took
place in :-merican alth:j.-; the increase amounted to only 91,000 r'unmnin :bales.
SundriDs cotton sh, 'ed a lec-er.se of 158,000 bales or 6.4 per cent from the
first half of l'30-i. T'.e increas-dl cons.Ltion of '-.3ica;n .l Eg:.ptian
ir-' th:-.n offset h, le decline in Indian and Sundries r~sultin-, in an increase in
the total consi..-'ptioi of all cottons of '36,COO bales or 2.7 per cent. For the
-.orll outside of t.e unitedd Status there '.. s a ,re.ter percentar;;e incre.-se in
the consump)tio.i of ...ia'zLan and "L'p titan cottons than took place in th:e United
States. Foreign co..s,:...pt.o.:. of '...erican cotto-n -i'.rin, t.is period amounte-3l to
3,572,300 bales corix.red .:ith 2,901,000 fra l ;l~-st to J-nuar; 1530-31, .:a
increase of 471,000 bIles or 16.2 :er cent. Forein countries co:ist.Ied about
100,03,D al3es more of 2;Z-tian cctton which :'as eq-iv.lent to About 28 er cent
increase.

-ppare. :t the Federitio.n did not receive ret-..r. 3 from Chin:., si ce it is
repor-ted that figu-es re o .s-d. for that co-ntr;- ':ere estimated. Fro.n -ie r'eo.'t
received from the .Arric.ult.ral Conciissioner at Sha;n..h.i it sees liki-l t-it
the 250,O)0 b'les oj: .'.erican cotton 3stim-.ted bby the Federation to hav- been
co..s.u1_ed in Chini fro.n .Lu:.3st to J.-.n.ary .-was too su..il tlthou i t 'is fioire
represents more than 50- p2, cent increasee fror the s:ue p rico last season.Fe
reports that fro,i October to Janruary the estimated rate of consum-tio:. of
A..iorican :.as 50,030 bales per month. This is about in line w"ith the esti..uite
released by the ie':. York Cotton :~.hane Service lacin, 3liinse consur.ption of
American at 464,000 baLes.





-8-


Jorll conm'ir.ption of ::.erlc.n cotton increased 311,0.0 bales or 5r- per
- -ncnt-a.a-compared with th' last h'alf of 1930-31. Consumption of Indian *.as
123,300 bales less, Sundries only 64,000 bales less and :%yptian 27,000 bales
.liore. From this it may. 'e seen that the International r'oeration reported a
larger consu.mptioin of ..merican, of.:tian, and all cottons during th:e last half
of 1].7C-31, th,'.an: dl..ri ,; thie first ,alf 1:h.ile cons.nptionj of Indian .as s1s ller.

United States

During February domestic cotton consumption amounted to 450,000 running
bales .v-.hich co.;iare-s -..'ith 435,000 bales in January, and '.- 33,000 bales in February
1231 according to fi'-ures released by the Bureau of the Cens:.s. The increase
from.i January to Februar' this season compares -.:ith an average decrease during
the past five years of about 40,000 b .les or 7 per cent. February, this year,
ho.'ever, had twenty nine days. Total consumption for tnie first seven months
of the season amounted to 3,081,000 bales, an increase of 1I8,0o'0 bales or-
6 per cent. Due to the decrease in .domestic consunimtion of foreign cotton the
total consumption of .'.m"rica: cotton has shon-m a some.:'hat larger increase.

The February report by the association n of Cotton Textile Herchants of
Ie-: Yorh :'-hiile not as favor-ble as that of January was on the v:hole encouraging
with: the weekly rate of production the highest for al,-ost t.:o years. Sales and
shiu.~ients ..rore lart.er and stocks decreased 5.7' per cent to 239,700,000 yards.
These -..ere the smallest st-cl:s of cloth held by the members of this -Association
since co:--jarable figures ba-cau.ie avail'tble in January 1923. Unfilled orders at
the end uf February '.,ere, -.nit> the exception of a month earlier, the largest
line the end of February 1'31.

Great Britain

British mills consumed about 1,212,000 bales of ra:? cotton during the
first h..lf of this season according to the report of the Federation. This :.-as
an increase of 24 per cent or 236,00J running bales over the same period last
season. D'urin'" this period consu.i.ption of .'.merican cotton amounted to 609,030
bales co.!pared .ith 4953,00) bales a year earlier. L-ctivity during, the early part
of the season caa;. have been sliigtly above the first .reeks of the 1930-31 season,
bv.t the greatest increase took place after Great Britain -ent off the gold stand-
ard in late Septer.bier. Juding from forwardin;s of cotton to English mills
the L.ncashire riill situation in February and early :.rch 'as in a .-ore favor-
abl.e position than either last year or the year before. Recent reports indicate
that foreign trade in cotton tex-tiles is expanding. During February exports
of piece goods amoi.-ned to 180,500,0 0 square yards representing a
sl.iJht increase over Januar-P, whereas during the past ten years exports in
February average more than 5 per cent 'relo': those of Januarry.





0-78 -.-

Continental .urcpe aDurinr' February I/

The Continental cotton textile situation in February was characterized
by pessimistic reports from nearly all countries, notwithstanding the continued
absence of significant new development.; or tendencies. On the wh"cle, new orders
boo.-ed, .iill activity and tcil stocks situation rer:.airned substantially unchanged,
though varying sc.mewhat from country t- country, and with the weaving branch
apparently a little stronger than the --oinning branch.

The generally unfavorable econo.nic situation continues to be the big
factor in cotton textile outlook. While prices of rpi cotton are lc' and
textile cut-ut has been readjusted, bl- and large, to consumptive requirements,
a.-parently a ..ore definite prospect of an upward turn in demand must appear
before the cotton trade and industLry ill feel safe in -.aking large future
ccmnitments.

Spinner buying of raw cott-.n during February has been of fair volume in
both central and western Europe, b'.t .-.urchases remained small in Italy. Con-
tinental spinners neg-cctcd Indian cotton because of its unfavorable parity
*ith Amrerican, but Argrentine and Peruvian cotton attracted considerable interest.
In some central European countries the volzae of recent buy:i'g of raw cotton
hardly sees justified by actual requirements of the industry on the basis of
-Lresent and ?ros-iective levels of activity, bUt may be explain.c, partially, by
efforts to acquire real values at a t i. e of unstable currencies. Price-fixing
by cor::incntal spinners 7'as generally in evidence, particularly after the
middle of February, when the raw market assumed a firm trend.

Germar.

The position of the German textile industry, both in the spinning and
weaving branches, continues to be unfavorably influenced by British competition
in the domestic market, as well as by the virtual impossibility of doing export
business. Nevertheless, yarn sales by German spinners in February reflected
somewhat increased buying of a short-term character in western Germany, though
sales of yarr cn the whole reLained about unchanged in comparison with Jen-uary,
with new bookings and delivery calls against previous orders relatively small in
volume. The continued loss in purchasing po'er incident to increased unrmoloy-
ment, notably in the western German heavy industry areas, is causing renewed
cautiousness in buying by the distributing trade. Trade is particularly bad
with the mills spinning coarse ccint yarns, i.e. the two cylinder mills, but
fi:e spinning mills are also encountering increasingly unsatisfactory conditions
because cf British competition.

German clith mills experienced some imprrovement in sales during February
for su:a-er goods, but the total volume of new bookings for the month as a whole
was but little better than in January, when, however, some betterment vwas re-
-orted as a result of inventory sales and reduction in Christmas stocks of the
trade. February buying from cloth mills continued to be of a general-,' short-
term character, with prices remaining distinctly unsatisfactory. British
competition is also much ccmnlained of by German weavers, who are encountering
exce-)ti,:nal difficult in regard to exports, the British market having been one
of the most i:.iportant consumers of various German specialty fabrics.
I/ Based largely on a report from Agricultural AtLache' L. V. Steere at Berlin.




0-78


"ic develcpnicint of soles during 'ebru.ar; and ;relmr.inary. trade re-orts
noint to the probability thit :,ill -oprrations in both the spinnirn and weaving
branches was fuily l ir ainttained and possibly slightly increased during the month,
in ycc hrilson with January levels, which were rather sharply below December
operations.

The increasing tensity of cr-n.-Ltition in international textile markets,
and particularly the effect of British competition, is rather strikingly
confirmed by the German forei, n trade statistics. J2nu3ry exports of cotton
coods from C-ornany experienced a heavy, dron, although Gorj;an imports of cotton
yarn and cloth increased, continuing a tendency evident since September when
England venrt off the gold st-ndard.

Raw cotton purchases by German spinners have been of fairly, satisfactory
volume throughout February, and the rising rnar'et during the second half of the
month led also to considerable price-fixing. Purchases of E-st Indian cotton
continued small, es a result of the unfr.vorable -oaritty ,ith American, but good
interest was evident for Argentine and Peruvian cotton. American Lrades most
in demand' vere Middlir-n and Strict Lo'- '!iddlin., A-.arican shi'-pers' offers of
which wore limited.

For the first half of this season cotton textile mill activity in Germany
as measured by cotton consumption was slightly more than 12 -er cent higher
thar. during the same period last season and about 17.5 per cent greater than
in the last half cf 193C-31. It is likely that the consumption of American
cotton increased even more due t- the favorable price parity. The Inter-
rational Federationsl report should be at hand before the next issue of this
rel ease.

Czecho slrovkia

The development of new business continues unfavorable among Czechoslovakian
cotton textile mills, with export sales the object of particular complaint. The
rationing of foreign exchange in the irmArtant neighboring markets and the de-
-jreci.ticn cf the currency in numerous other countries continued, as for some
months- ast, to limit seriously the foreign outlet for Czechoslovakian cotton
mills, which are heavily dependent upon ex-ort business. Exports of cotton
fabrics have fallen greatly since the autuiin of 1931 and at the end of February
were at the lowest level since 1 25. Cotton yarn exports also dropped, but to
a less extent. Domestic demand was reported holding up more satisfactorily,
but was not of itself sufficient to counterbalance, the poorer foreign sales.

As a result of the continued lethargy in foreign business, cotton mill
activity in Czechoslovakia (December, 70 per cent against 78 per cent last year)
remained low and seemed likeely to continue restricted during the immediate
future. The necessarily restricted consume tion of cotton is clearly; reflected
in the reduction in imports of raw material to about 180,000 bales of 478 pounds
in the five months ending Decoerber 1931, as compared with about 208,000 bales
in t:he sema'e Teriod last year, a decrease of about 14.5 nor cent. Lnports in
fact, have fallen to a greater extent than mill o-perations have declined, so,
u.iless f:.rther restrictions in mill occupation beco:ne necessary, it seer.s quite
probable that some revival of imrrorts of raw cotton will be necessary in the
next few ihonths.


-10-






C-?y -ll.-

Aus tri;c.

Austrian reports in'.icate no i.a:torial change in tho cotton textile
situation during; January .nd February. Jofinite fir-res on the rate of 'mill
activity for tho's tv/o months arc still lac-;ing,, but it ar:..a-'s that oprat ions
Swre bcing, m-.intcincd at bottor levels than provailod a year a,-o, follov.'ing the
seasonal rcviv-.l at the close of 1931.

!iotwithstanaing general complaints by the Austrian cotton industry as
to the difficulty of obtaining foreign e;:'chan'e for purchases of raw material,
the trade statistics indicate that Austrian imports of raw cotton in November
and December were relatively larC.e, particularly in the latter month. It would
appear that the restrictions on foreign cuire:icy are not so severe as claimed, in
actual practice, or that the industry is finding means of evading the regulations,
There is considerable reason to believe that the industry is converting its
assets into rae.- material :;wherever possible because of the uncertainty of the
currency situation, the 'iustrian schilling being at a considerable discount in
foreign markets.

ProspLects for tne future development of cotton consumption in Austria
continue very much dependent upon general economic developments, the present
outlook for which is unfavorable. Efforts are now being trade to overcome the
numerous obstacles to international trade through the development of clearing
agreements with tne surrounding countries, as the early restoration of more
normal trade relations with neighboring countries is regarded as of utmost in-
portance.

France

The general level of new business and mill occupation in the cotton
textile industry in r'rance during February a-parintly changed little as com-
pared with the previous month. Some trade reports indicated a rather good
improvement in bookings by the mills at the close of February, with orders ex-
tending through June, but this seer..s not to be ognerally the case. The majority
of reports stated that the volume of unfilled orders on hand was very low, and
that mill activity was correspondingly restricted. Reports from ioubai::,
Tourcoing and Rouon, and certain other centers, definitely stated that yarn sales
in February were very slack. Some increase in booki:~s was e:xerienced around
the middle of the month, when raw cotton prices strenL'thened, but this tendency
disappeared later. A; siall revival in yarn w;as ajain re. istered at the beginning
of March, when sales by cloth mills to wholesalers showed some pick-up after
being relatively quiet through most of February.

The general level of cotton textile mill activity as a whole in Franco,
as previously stated, was indicate,. to be r-lativoly low, with spiining mill
operations apparently not nuch above those in Doc-mb:r. Cpec-rations in the
cloth mills, on the other hand, are srmowhat more satisfactory, at levels
slightly above those boing maintained in Decombor. I.ill stocks of yarns wore
indicated to be higher than in Docember, with a slightly rising tendency still
evident; unfilled orders for yarn woro stated to be lower than two months ago.
The position of the weaving branch is similar, i. e., stocks are now somewhat
above those in December and unfilled orders on the books stand below the figures
of two months ago.






C-78 -1 -

otwithstu.ndina tihe frc t tht Fr=nch cionsuir 'tio-:: of r .' cotton has boon
3sarply raducod cd-ri:n ll, imports of rau nat-ri-ial "i:vc fallen to an even
*groator extent. In f_.1ct, trade reports inti.nr-to that YFrnch cotton spinners have
_xtcnsive rcquiroiacts to uo covered dur-ing conlin, months. A thoroughly sound
basis for this viev is to be fcunr. in il'-rLnch cotton import statistics for the
mon';ts Iugust-Dccm'er J1931, ...n t'he i.in.FOrt ovc;m;nt ax'ontca to only 235,000
bales of 478 pounds-t.ji.- t 3800,000 bals in th:i saac months last season, and
711,000 bales ,two yoLrs %'-o, a dlcrtas" of 71 fnd 67 per cent respectively.
Cotton consunT'io-n f:o'r. ...ufust to J~Lnury wav.s only 17 opr cent lov/er this sozson
tha-n last, 3 11ll s3tc.-'3 t th.rt o;in of J nu ry this season \wro only 24 per cont
loss th.-a.n a ,yj-rear' .i.r ? fic tc tho record stocks h:ld by mills at the beginning
of tih season. Un'-c;l-s nill ..ctivity is further reduced, it see:.is certain that
Franco ;.ill reouiro increased imports of -ruw cotton.

caw cotton iuzc.i-'.sCs by 1ench s.-inn rs hav: boen of fcir volume during
Februaryr and p'.icc f'i::in,' ..'os p-jriodically active, osp'ccially whon the market
showed a tone?..jncy tow: rd stranath.

The cottun tc::til. inrdstry in Alsace his recently bean endeavoring to
secure miiior effocti-v, protection against forDig.n g.oods in the form of import
contingents, as ;well as improvemon.t of cro.-it faciliti-s, which h i.ppIar to be
relatively irnadequate. unfd'cr the rigorous credit policy boinr pursued by French


During the first i...li o' this season total consumption of all cotton in
French mills s :.:cs .bcut 100,uOO bc.los lss tiU n during theo r-ome period last
so;-soii, C d.cr.jos' of almost 17 per cent. Co-l.arcd with the procoding si:
months, hio'ov:'r, tihe dore-so mountedd to onl" 51,000 ba.los or about 6 per cont.

:..ill stocKs of r.:;.. cotton A.t the3 end of Janu:.ry this yocr v.'erc about 24
pe-r cent or 75,00D0 b-:los lss than a yo.er oj-rliar. In vi-.': of the vory low' level
of imports, stocks -would h vc bcon oven lower except for the 'unrusully largo
stocks .at the 'cginning of the so:.son. -.t that tino nill stocks of all cotton
vore about 12 p:.r cent 1.'rz..r t1h.n at the previous pz.. for the corresponding
p.iriod. in m:orn thc.n r.c dcc.de.

It-ly

omrp.r-itivcly little ? change in thl It_.lian cotton tuxtilo situation has
bcon rcportoc urrinr. the .nonth of iebrur.ry. 3usincs in both cotton yarn and
fabriics v:,cs r-nl: tively quie-t 6d-ring the month, but production .was being hold at
such ristiictjd l?vcls t'hat stoc.cs of yr.rns and goods shj'-od no tcnde.icy to
accumulated. T2c snd of th ? month was m.:rk.ed uy somr.c.i-.t better Ccm.nd for
both cotton yr._ns anr. cloth, but mn.rgins for both spinners and wo:vors continued
unsatisf ctory.

The figures on cotton: mill activity in It.-ly continue: to sho\ relative
stabilit-, in op'trations, Et levels approximaLtin; tlhus orf :.- J ao. Y..rn -sales
continue to excoc... output by -: s:.c.ll m-'.rE:in and mill stocc.: of y.'.rn3 ;r still
rcce in;; s lo071. Unfilled orders -re, holdir. -.t -bout the level prcv2.iling
since i:oveoribor.





C-76


- 13 -


It..li,.n spinnc-rs' purclasos of r,;: cotton d'nii- .. `obru.-ry rr.i:.ircd
rolativ:-l,. smn.ll witfh intorost confined mc.:inly to spot cotton. Price fixing
;-;s of f..ir volume.

l'ot-i cotton consuIntion in Itc;ly during the first h..lf of the sorLson
w..s reported o.t 400,000 running balos or 7,000 bclos l.rgr than this period
last so--.son :nd 10,000 balos l:-r of A11 kinds of cottons at mid-season .woro 6,000 balos loss than a year oarliSr.
Tho lcrg.-r imports of Amenrican cotton _-.id smaller imrorts of othor cottons in-
dic.te t:r-t prorh'ps consumption of ..-rricn2 incra=.sod moro th,.n the total.

Holland

Growing 3ritish competition has begun to ma:e itself felt in Holland,
where the Dutchi cotton industry, particularly the weavnit section, \,as encounter-
ing steadily increasing difficulty in disposing of its output. I'eands are Lnov:
being made of the Government for protection against British gools. The strike
which has also been restricting production in the Dutch cotton industry, \was
still unsettled at the end of 'ebjruary.

Be l'i u

3elgiun, which h is dependent upon e::lort outlets for its cotton textile
industry, has been encountering steadily increasing difficulty in recent molonths.
Sales to Great 3ritain were greatly ham:.Tered by the newv i.-pnort tariff and the
depreciation of the pound,, and business with other countries was also restrict-
ed by the depression and Cthe numerous barriers a ainst foreign goods which have
been erected in recent months.

Pcland

No significant chan:-e was indicated in the Polish cotton situation in
February. Prices were ver; unsatisfactory, and production aid sales materially
reduced. 1Iucli uncertainty prevailed as to the success of the Government's
efforts to bring order into the chaotic competitive situation .,hichi exists
among Polish mills.

Latest reports mention plans to create a central selling office for
the spinners' cartel to -.which the ba financial support. It is still too early to judge whether anything tang-ible
will comeo out of this pro.osal.

Polish imports and. exports of cotton goods have unde.rgone considerable
further contraction in recent r.onths, particularly so in the case of imports.
As compared with two years ago, cloth exports now show a great decline, with
a not out;warcd movement in the five months ended December 1931 of 674,000 pounds,
as coiarpared with 2,19'.,000 pounds in the coriospondirn- -. imports of raw cotton, also materially reduced, were equivalent to 99,000 bales
of 47 pounds in the five monthss ended December 1931, as compared with .155,000
bales the previous year, 111,000 two years a:-o end 151,000 bales three years .cgo.
A recent rc:ort on spinnin-. mill activitZ in Poland shoove thu following figures:
During tho first "icok of October ... 89 por don't, Eovomber ...87 per cent
Leccr.ibor .. 76 January ... 77 "






Russia
Janu. i.r production of cotton fabrics L.--ountcd to 210,576,000 yards, or 94.9
per cent of the monthly p-l.1,. Production declined somewhat as compared wit the
preceding month in the case of finished fabrics, but an; increase was evident in
yarn mill output. The averiL e Caily cotton fabric production in January this year
increased 4.4 per cent as compare:. with the correspouCd.in month a year ago, but was
below those of 1923, 192 ac.L. 1930.
Production c.uring the first t:'ree weeks of 'ebrua':y mnounteC. to 143,543,000
yards compared w'it:h 1j7,0',6,000 yards during the corresponding three weeks in
January. The plan w"as reported executed by C3.5 per cent for finished fabrics a'nd
by 92.5 per cent for yarn.

China
The cotton situation at Shanghai has improved somewhat since the previous
issue of' worldd Cotton ri-ospocts. Yarn production by t:..o tiddl of Ic:arch had rocov(a
ed partially from the low point reached during the fighting and was estimated at
about '5 per cenit of capacity. fow months ago activity was perhaps 70 per cent or
more of capacity. JapDnose mills in China had not resuood operations by 1.Iarch 15
and no decision :ha b1;n mjdi by J-p.ancso mill owners as to resumption of activities
but conditions m:ay permit certirn mills to start before the end of Mairch, according
to cabled advice from .-.ricultural Commissioner Davison. at Shanghai.

The congestion in the storage of raw cotton still cuxists. Small amounts of
cotton arc- deliv.roj'. to mills throu-gh commission firms taking delivery orders for
yarn and piece goods, the paymentt for th"se orders being set off ac'cinst the cotton
delivered to mills. 2his ararl.T'ominnt is said to be :expri.nc'ntal and slow of opera-
tion -nrd will relievo t:,: tijhit mon.-y situation only in bart. s. small amount of
business ./as boinr: doine for cash, tho report states. Impnrovo.nents in the native
banking situation -.:ich "Aill prmit the regular procedure in the cloarinf of orders
was procrossing but slowly.
r.vNragQ. monthly consuiiption of /kinoricLn cotton in C:inc from Octobor to
January hlis bcon estimated at about 80,000 b-los but fcll to about 12,000 in
-'r-bru-.ry. 'March consumption will .lso f-.ll much belowu c::cct--tions of a month or
so Lo C-.uo to the rducctior ofi activity in ShL-.ngihai .iills. In contrast with the
hig ra- to of consumption of .jnmric..n cotton in'ic-tod by reports from Agricaltural
ComrTissioncr JD'.'son conus- ..tion fri''om v.u'stst thriou;:h J alu. iy -s reported by the
eodor-.tion at 250, JC bL los for th hA.lf ycLr or 41,8u0 b:.l.:s per month. Vory
probably the r-.te of consLu1p, tion of r1-mcrican OurinL; ti-? latter p~.rt of this six
months period was A1i.h r than c.-lier in the s -.son, but this is not sufficient to
o::ple.in thj v..ri.icc botw-./n tihe r-t.to rc.ortoL. b_ J ricultulr 1 Coimnissionor 1:.-rson
and tnh report of tlhe ntern.tional Fedor.,.tion. 2h:c .--.' York Cotton ::cha:igo Ser-
vice is using can osti.n-ts of -'64,000 b.-los for the h;:.lf-yce. ended Janusry b1, 1932
or an c-ver. c of a little ovr 77 000 ba.le's ,r month. .Eve tihe -'Loration's re-
port sloIv'c. Ln increLs" of 52.4 jpr cent in t:he consum nption of ..mricun cotton over
the first six months of 1D0-31.
i!ativc cotton arrivals at S;h.ngha.i w ro reported as very s..mall, but, duo to
the diiffic-,lty, in moving stocks th.ro was little concern about this situation.

The demand for y-.rn ii South China was f..ir L.t mid-L.7-.roh, but the future is
uncertain beci,-us t of t:e. uncortL.irty 0o' ginorl1 business conditions.

Indi'.

In India mill activity hiu.s been almost at record levels this season despite
the fact that tne suppl:v of domestic cotton has been small. During the first half


-14--


C-78





C-78 -15-
.of the season total mill consumption of all cotton amounted to 1,33,000 rmn-:;v-,
bales, an increase of almost 8 per cent over the like period last season accord-
ing to statistics given o-:t '-' the International ?;..er ,.ti?n. The so...n report ,avo
the consumption :,f "Amr'ican us 69,030 b.les, almost six tii:es as 1 r-e as in the
first half of 19'J0-5. The ab:-.' total is larer than th.t reported for first half
of any season for more than a djca.du and in vio:7 of the smaller .m'ober of spindles
operating in India prior to that tiiLme and the greater dependence upon i:.T ortod
cloth .and yarn it is .vesry prjb-.bl that this -...as the l.ar;.,st no;unt of cotton over
consumed in Indian mills during a 6-month p-ri. ondel Jinuinry 31,altho'nugh the
consiu:-Ttion during the second h o.. l of 192 ,-27 excei31. this .count.
T'h boycott ?f f:ril:!-. LD:ds has be-ni an i.n~)rtant factor stimulating nmill
activit- in Indri:.. Th 1 ..r:. requiremcrnt of the Indian mills,:hich geonerally- use
less th.Ian L0 per cent :oreil. cotton and the very short supp-ly; of Indija cotton
has reduced the e::port;.Lbcl s.rr,'l'.s of Indirin cotton. These conditions hav.: been
vary favorable fro -Gho st .ndpoint :-'.'.mrican cotton.

Ja an
Total mnports .,f r....' c:tt.-n during Janiuar' amo'.itCd to 318,000 bales
co.np.iar'd ith 1527,300 bales in D.cmbor -nd 246,000 in J.an.uary 1931, according to
a cable from. Consul Don?.:.r. .t .bob. -merican imp rts equalled 213,000 b.l,.s in
January; and Indian 72,000 b.'.oos, .'..s pointed oit on p-o a uriorican cotton
le .ving the United Stat.js i:- 'ojru'Lry destined for Jap:.n ..::s the l:.r.3st for any
month on record. S133s to riUlls of :.:;lriccl cotton fro:.n a-.;ust to early Liarch
-was report at 1,800,000 balc.s and it has boon estirat A that mills have purc:~as,.
sufficient ra.:' cotton to :.',o- thL-ir renuireime-nts for the ne:t six months. .Ss
pointed o-..t in the discussion o.0 exports, the heavy; movement of ALericai cotton to
Japan is due in large part to tie relative prices of American ;and Tadian. The
heavy purchases were no doubt stimulated by the expectation of the abandonment
of the ,old standard.

During t:ie first hal o' the season J.i1:an is reeore.:. to have consv :..o
about 630,0 GO runinG bales of ..merican cotton which is an increase of 204,000
bales of 47.9 per cent over the like period last season. This is the larcost
aio-ouit of Ami.erican cotton aver c .nstr.'ed. in J-L.pai during; a 6-month periodd. The
total consumption of all cotton in Japan duriil, the si:: monthss ended Jain'.r-- 31,
1932 avas reported at 1,393,000 balss an increase over the first period of 1930-31
of 12.5 per cent. The total co.isui.iPtion 'as smaller than in a number of half-;ear
periods in previous years, but a larLer proportion of ainerican cotton '...s used
than ever before. :Amric;' 'ttan .ca'noml_.ted to 45.1 per cent of the total Inu.i1-3r
of bales of all cotton consr.1id. Dirini- the last half of 1l'Z0-27 A.i.nierican cotton
aiiouneted to 44.0 per cen':t of the total Jap--)aese cos.i'tlon. TIis vas .te
hih"ast percentage Ireviousl c :-nsu.ied. At -:resent the proportion of American
cotton b'ein,, u'se- is :.rob:.b/ c 1isidcerably hi :her t:an the average proportion
for the first si:: months of c'.e season. At the Januar- rate of c-tton:- coi-ns -.:tion
:.ic.h '.7c.s thl-. hi .host f.,r ..bo .: two ye-rs, the consumirtion of -merican cotton
during the last .If f 19.1-"2 wouldd be much hi' : -r thai. d..ri;n; the first h'.lf.
It sho1:-.l be -:.tod, ho:-evar, t:--.- J;a- '.n's '-:-tile e::)ort business has recently
declined t t'Le o..oest levels since e .rly, in the 1927-28 season .1 that e:: orts
of cott-on to::tiils are very i.' .,rt.:.it in the J.'.ness i; :c'try. Better relations
:-.ith Ch.i;u!., her chief foreign -.r:e:. iould no doubt 'brl. increased 3e-. rts.

It is reported that t:i cu:-tailim.int rte \;::ch has been in effect for soi.'.
ti.ne mna be reduced on July i f;'o a pi.ri i of three months Ilso it has been
estiim:tcd ...at 'cetwo-een Febru-.r .-nd. Dece..ier 19'2 snomthi;g over 503,000 n.-'
spindles :rill be added to t,.o various Ja)anese mills. At t1. end of Janu r;
there .7were about 6,138,000 s_ inilcs in oopratio-n :.;nd y t-he e'nld of June this
number is expected to have beaiL inc-:-o-sod b:y 5 per cent.





u- ,


-16-


Y: rn :.roiuction in J .nu--.r. ':~s ab.'.ut I ._ s t.un3 as in D.:;co;ibt .r (-.bout
.22',o000 bales of 400 pounds). This ..'as the lar ,st :.onth'i1 consum-ition for nearly
two years. Visible stocks of yarn at the on'i of January -iwere smaller than a month
earlier but icre much larger than a y ear earlier.

Witlh sucL h1av- i,.:,rt.iti ons of cottr., naturally stocks of ra'.: cotton
have accumulated si ncj consu-pti :.n h.is not equalled imports. If the i.iill stocks
figures reported by thu Federation include only that- portion of the stocks owned
b: mills .Thiicil were hold in i.ill ':arehouses, as '/as the case last y,.:r, taon those
stocks fig ires plus the total port stocks give us a total stocl:s figure. The
Fojr-a.tioi reportol 231,300 bales as the mnill stocks of ..morican cotton at the end
of Januar-. ..dding port stocks to those mill stocks gives a total of 483,000
b l].-s. This amount plus exports from the Unitel States in Fcbru:Lr -.ould Give
Ja-.an-, scaLthing like 379,300 bales, which ,is considerably .noro than the csnsumpti'n
during the first half of th. season.
Pr-,duction, .crea.ge and Cro. Conditions
United States

The final innings report released by the Buri.-.u of the Consus sho.-'s tlh2
tot.l oirmuinr for the 1931 crop to to 16,596,000 running biles counting round
as half b..los) averaging 514.0 pounds gross the equivalent .f 17,061,000 b..les
of 473 pounds net or 500 pounds gress. The 1930 crop a..iountcd to 15,932,000
bales of 478 pounds. This represents an increase of 3,129,000 b :ls or 22.5 per
cent as compared with last season's crop ani is less than 1 par cont or 143,000
bales larger than t'ieo Dcom.iber estii ato of the Crop Reporting Board of this
Bureau. The .17,061,000 bales is second only to the record crrp of 1926 \vhiich
totaled 17,377,000 bales. The crcp just harvested, ho-.:zver, was produced on a
much sm. l.ic.r .crew.e than that of 1926, the yield per acre this season being the
lar est since 1 F14. Froln the accompanying table it may be seen that Texas alone
produced 5,322,003 bales or al..ost 1-1/3 million tales more than in 1930. The
.r'rkansas crop also increasal ore than a million bales r.nd reached a now/ all
time record for that St to. ..ost -f theo incre so in tihe 1931 crop took pl-.c in
Texas, r'.rkansas, Oiclah~.na, !.ississippi, Tennessee a-nd Louisiana,The Southeastern
States (liorth C .rolina-, S . then in 1930 although Sou.th Carolin- './s approximately the sj-.io as in 1930.
--laba.-a's 1931 crop -.w/s also s.a.11er than that of 1930. Except in Georgia these
decre:.sos -:Iere iu. to larCe d.croeses in acrealc as the yields ::ore higher than
in the previous -.;r. T yield in Georjia, ho:.'ever, :as probably slightly loeor
th:an in 1';.3.

Preparations for the 1932 domestic crop ,re reported as belo-.-. normal.
Vcoath`r conditions in much jf the Cotton EBlt .'ere ver' unseasonal during the
first half of "iar"c. DurinL Febru.:-ry- fertilizer tag sales in eight Sttes .::ore
only 54.8 per cant of Februir-' 1951 and only a little more than one-fourth as
lare as in 1950. For the three monthss December throni'h l'ubruar:y, t.a sales
w.-ere about h:.lf as lare as i.. thesc ..ionths last season and 27 per cent -s l-re'
as in t'i, same period in 1129-50.





-1.7-


Table 2.- Cotton, American: Cinnings for the crops of 1320, 1930, and 1931 1/


uniniinc bales


: Equivalent 500 pound bales


: (Counting ro-nd as half bales) :
: 19% : 1-.3C : 1931 : 1929 : 1930 : 1931
: E"jles : ales : Pales : a les : B3les : Trles


Ala. ....:
Ariz ... :
Ark. .....:
Calif. ...:
Fla. ......
Ga. ......
La .....
I' ss. ....:
fo. ..... :
Pe-w ;ox. .

Okla. ....
S. Coar. .
Tenn. .... :
Tex. .....
V ...... :
Ail other :
States .;


1, 07,6- 4:
140,46"
1,3%5,869:








7?7,C.',3:
254,127 :
1, 339 ,-55:


120,.07
86 ,29
7r7,C53:
1,125.614
"33,0.54

3,503,211
47, 1:


1,444, 886:
.150, 545:
863,443
i t6. CI I 57 :

51, 118:
1,597,475
704, 750:
1,458,488
153,557:
5,8 41:
80C0,582:
656,748:
1,0 C15 ,273:
371,433:

3,8 1 S13:
42,713


8,877:


1,384, 05:
110,191:
1,822,118:
170,60:
43,405:
1,3-74,4C 0
875,95G:
1,703,472:
279,5 3:
23,765:
771,127:
1,23b,4 -'9
1,010,325:
577,)3.
5,064, 320:
42,490:


11, 1663A:


1,341,550:
152,839:
1,434,660:
258,559:
28,578:
1,342,643:
.C 3,82e:
1,015,436:
19, .:':
38,450:
747,208:
1,142,666

515,74:
3,941,-26:
47,527:


8,53 :


1,473,287:
155).409:
874,356:
263,766:
50,306:
1,592,b3 :
714,529:
1,464,311:
160,0 .5:
98,462:
774," 4:
L85 3,584:
1,000, .2 :
376,912:
4,039,1.376


6,467:


1,419,527
114,300
1,892,053
175, .2'2
43,164
1,393,334
899, 2"4
1,744,":5
288,189
.8,127
75(,227
1,2r0, 745
1,004, 71'
594,451
5,321,987
42,434


11,907


U. .... :2/14,547,791:2/13,755, 518:/16,595,780:14,824, 861\13, .1,597:17, C0,772

Compiled from the orel ininr.r:, report of the r.ureau of tOe 'encS.
1/ E/.iuding linters.
2/ Incluies ",50C7 1- les of the crop of 1331 girined prior to Augist 1 which was
'ourLted in the supply. for the season of 1930-51, compared with ?7,188 and 86,?74
a-.les of the c.'ots of 1930 and 19..2.

The statistics in this report for 1931 are subject to revision. Incli-.ed
in the figures for i.l1 are 96,85 tLUles which winners estimated wouid be turned
out after the i':rh crnvass. Round bh.les included .re 621,060 for .931; 524,277
for 1:.'C; and 57:,227 for 1-2;. AmTrerioun-Egpltial bales included ars 13,75,' for
1t31; 23,712 for 1'30; and 2.,771 for 1929.

The average cross weight of' Eile for the crop, counting round -, half
thle- and e.cliuinR linter:, is -14.0 pounds for 1931; 506.4 for 19-JO; -rn. 509.5
for 12.*.. The number of ginneries oper: ted for the crop of 1'31 is 14,151 com-
pured w'ith 1-4,L03 for 130; nnd 14,8.18 for 1929.


State






-13-
C-78 -13-

E&A

Up to :;arch 1 total gilinings of :23ypti-n cotton including Scarto (very
low quality cotton) c.mountce to 1,l13J,'00 bOlcs of 473 pounds, c.ccording to a
ci.ble from th2- Intcn.L.tic;.:l Institute. of Aricult'lu L'.t ione. Th is is equiva-
lent to ..bout 62 pZr cjrt 1of th; vr. .. ;.in.ir;s to t:..t .td'.c L ing the threo
previous seasons. 2ic tot.l crop is forjc.st :.t 1,286,000 b..lzs which is
oquivc.lcr.t to Lbout 75 pIr czut of the avcrusc of tho thr-c crops 1928-29 to
1950-31. It should be notJi in those comp risons, ho;.-v.,:r, thC.t innings last
sea-son ucro riot normal czs pointed out previously. Giinings of S:3koll:,ridis
cotton up to :::rchl1 totzld 216,000 .l,s oquiv.lJrnt to b5 per cent o'f tho
av:r.--o giiin].'S of this v rity during: t.,o pr'ivious thr..o .,oL rs. Ginnings of
oth.r v.ricti-s tott.lod ?87,000 bi l-s, -.bout 93 p.r c Ont of the c:vor..go. The
lnrgro dzcrc-so in S:--..ll.ri.is is '. result of the l:,rg dzcraLJso in the acroego
planted to S:.:ll.'.ridis. It will bj romomaborod th..t tl. '.ryptiz-n Gov-rnmrint
pressed :" law rostrizting. cotton acro:.-- in tjh thrace princip:.l Sakol producing
provinces to 40 c.r cj.:t of t;t :.r- i i-i cultiv.-.tion.

Rus sic.

i's w..a t:e. c'.s- in 197.1, Russi'.i procurings of cotton .:pp'.r.ntly slk1ckon
consid-rably during th.e ionth of Fbri-z.ry and frll gr.::.tll bclov the plan. Pros'
pocts for .. full execution o0 the cot..on procuiring 1l.'r '.r-- v.ry unf;:vorablo,
as there is little likelihood that any significant amount will be procured from
11017 OYIO
noo s on.

The Rus3ian cotton cro; has apparently been overestimated again this year,
althoui-h definite estimates of the Government are still 1.ckinf,g Recent inform
tion points to lo.:er yielc.s than were coimted on in the pla.r:. At a recent con-
ference it was stated thi.t the yield amounted to 625 pounds per acre of unginned'
cotton as comip;red with 910 pounds per acre in the plan. On the basis of the
revised area of 5,281,000 acres previously reported sown to cotton ill 1931, this
would mean a total crop of about 1,495,000 tons of un-inned cotton or about
2,100,000 to 2,280,000 b;les o0 ginned cotton, depending upon the ginming outturM
An article in one of the leading papers recently indicated, however, that the
yield of cotton fibre amounted to about 170 pounds par acre which would mean a
fibre crop of only 1,876,00C0 bales. L'-oth these fiiaurds, although rather indireeo
indications o0' the outturn of the 1931-32 cotton crop, confirm our views that
the crop, was considerably below the 2,530,000 to 2,700,u00 bales indicated as
official expectatio-ns ucrlier in tne season. The. lower fi-ure is essentially
identical with this Bureau's estimate cf 1,900,000 bales for the 1931 crop.

The commencement of spi-ing ploughing wvas reported in Middle Asia during
the last wee0:k of r'obruary an!'. preparations are now going on for the approaching
spring sowing campaign. The pace of tne preparatory work, however, is regarded
as too slow, and the press is indicating the necessity of prompt execution of
all preparations in order to enable timely sowings.

This year's cotton planting plan is fixed at 6,022,000 acres and the
Governtnnt has ost itself th: goal of attaining a yield of 776 pounds of un-
ginned cotton rper acre. yield of 7756 ounds of un2innlcd cotton or about
257 to 256 pounds of gin'ied cotton p'r acre is not unUsucl, the avorago pro-war
yield of ginned cotton in Russia having znountod to 275 pounds per acre. A








yield of 2-1 pounds \";:a ..rvst.d in 19: 3-29 about 181.5 por.3 in 19 I/-2,
and 241. pounds in 1~9-0. 'Lv.-l incr-',Cd .--'o -o the "now" cotton regions,
whilich ino\; constitute about 16 per cent of th. total cotton acr: .-o of the Union
is probcaly lai-:ly rosponjiblo for the lower yields :i.rvested during the La-t
tw.o years, although late so.'ings *-i ..oor cultivation of the soil voro L.1so
unfavorabulc factors.

n.l -~Cr't ian 3ud.n

T.. .3 urdn Govornmont is now stimacting the 1931-32 cotton crop in that
coUnitrlr at 174,C"',C to 179,u".0 balos of 478 poimnds accorir-. to a cable from
Cotton Spccialist P. a1. norris at 0u:iro, -ypt. This co... Les with a final
estimate last sSGo ,sc f 1-.n,00O0 bales. Th2L. crop this season is beol;:.. prodlc'd
on an area about S p:r c. nt si-'lljr th -.1 in 192J0-31 which mo.ns that the yields
por acro now boinL; :L_.rvy.st3d :'-ro much _.bovo the v ery low yioclds of the previous,
so. son. It will L.e r: 'i.:-ro t.t tl.t t 1930-31 crop sifforod. severe da~rnO
froin dis3-as: ;Is',o:r. as "21.ck Ar;ri" and "Loc.f Curl". 3lould tho crop prove to
b. as lar~gi as eti..-:tx. thln the yields zt.is season will be unsua.lly high.
Tio jstimnato 1:lcos the pioJuction of Sake ll-rid is at 155,000 to 160,i0.0 beles
comp-:areod .ith t.-h 13J;0-51 -ro:.uction of 3S.kal of 83,O000 bAs. Thc osti tdci
production cf :.11 ot::;rs is 19,000 balos and cc.: -i. res with 23,000 b.les last
sc-.son. It *..as ti.3 cro_. in the 3..:.1 producinC[ ar-ra, mainly thie Gozira which
suff'-id .nost sc-v:.r: ly from dis:.scs last season.

Up Go 1:.ro 1 a tot 1 of about 108,000 bales or 50 to 62 per cent of th;
csti.a.t.--c crop h'?a J.1 :u .;-rvestod, .cccordir.n to the r. ort. Up to th..t time
91,0J0 C 1.- 13 or .)7 'o .:0 pr cent of tioe ostimatod ha. lallridis had b,,n harvest-
od can 17',OCO Lal-s of the estimated 19,000 balos of all others.


-15-







COI: -.T7TS


tINJIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IIIII I1 2lI 0 llll llE 1 lllliR 1 l n101 F 1 1 lllllnlll
3 1262 08863 1055


PAG:C


1 -..tunmnary .......... .. ............ 1
1 Swu nary . . .
2 Prices ............ .
3 Stocks and ]iove;nent . .
4 Textile Situation . .
5 Continental "uArop)e Durin, Februry 9
6 Production, -creaSe and Crop Co.nitions 16


:.PL'S

1 Liverpool spot prices of Inlian cotton expressed as a percentagee
of :merican, Liverpool bZ; months, 1926-27, 1930-31 and
1931-32 . . ..


2 Cotton, American: Ginnincs for the crops of 1929, 1930 cnd 1931. 17


U.S. DEPOSITORY


C-7S


T


3

-8
- 8 .**J-
- 16
- 19.,







3




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