World cotton prospects


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World cotton prospects
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v. : ; 27 cm.
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics. -- Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Division of Statistical and Historical Research.
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Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )


Dates or Sequential Designation:
- C-133 (Oct. 1936).
General Note:
Reproduced from typewritten copy.
General Note:
Description based on: C-59 (June 1930).

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 026660256
oclc - 30588060
lcc - HD9070.4 .Un311
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Cotton situation
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Full Text

Bureau of Agricultural Economics

C-77 Febraary 29, 1932



SThe apparent supply of American cotton remaining in the United States

decreased during the month of January almost 400,000 bales more than during

the same month last season as a result of an increase of more than 70 per

S cent in exports and only a slight decrease in consumption as comr:arede with

January 1931, according to tne Bureau of Agricultural Economics. This leaves

the apparent supply in the United States on February 1 about 15.7 million

bales which is still about 4.0 million bales larger than a year earlier. 'lost

of these increased stocks are located in public storage and warehouses

or on fans, since the amount of cotton hell in consuming establishments was

only a few thousand bales larger than on February 1, 1931. The heavy export

movement in January continued to be largely a result of heavy exports to

Japan and China, although most important foreign consuming countries took

larger amounts than during January 1931. For the first half of the season

total exports of American cotton were 11 per cent larger than in the same

period in 1930-31, and were slightly above those of 1929-30. In contrast to

the relatively large exports of American cotton so far this season the export

j movement of Indian cotton from August 1 to February 9 was 49 per cent less

than during the same period in 1930-31, and was onl3 slightly more than

half as large as in the corresponding period in 1929-30.

vhile domestic mill consumption during January was smaller than in

January of last year and sho-wed less than the usual seasonal advance, the

report of the cotton cloth section of the domestic industry was somewhat more

favorable, cloth sales being the largest since September, 1929, shipments


and production the largest for almost two years resulting in a substantial

increase in unfilled orders and a further decrease in stocks. In Great

Britain textile mill activity continues at a rate considerably above that

of the earl, part of the season. Piece .oods exports during December and

January were considerably higher than in 1930-31 and home trade has been

fairly satisfactory; but attempted labor adjustments have been a disturbing

factor, although it is recently. .reported tnat a definite settlement is nearer.

There was no significant change in the cotton textile situation on the

Continent -irin:, January. The volume of new business was reported unchanged

on the holel, although there was some decline in Central Europe and a slight'

increase in '.estern Europe and Italy. Currency difficulties and regulations

are said to be an important factor in tne situation.

The rate cf cotton consumption in India so far this season has been

above t.nt of 1S30-.31, a;d been almost at record levels, which together

with tne short crop has reduced the exportable surplus of Indian cotton and

resulted in an unusually large amount of American cotton being exported to

India. Up to the end of December Japanese mill activity continued at rather

high levels end unusually large proportions of American cotton were being used.

Exports of cot-ton cloth, however, have declined very materially for several

months. In China military operations and disturbed banking conditions have

seriously affected the industry. A large part of the cotton mills of China

are located at Shanghai where the disturbances have occurred. In late

February a cabled report stated that yarn production in the Shanghai mills

was estimated c t about 10 per cent of capacity and tnat the amount of cotton

consumned in February at Shanghai was extremely small.

Revised production estimates for a number of foreign countries has

necessitated a revision in the estimates of world production both for 1930-31

and 1931-32. The estimated 1930-31 world total including China is now 25.6


millionn bales or 1.7 million bajles s.-iler th:-_- the estimate of the present

(1931-52) crop. 7ne ectiI.ited reductionn outside of the United States,

however, is about 1.3 million bples si~ller this season th2n in 1930-31.

The principal countries showii-; in ortant decrc.ases are India, China, and

Egypt. In i,.dic alonp, ,relimini.-ry estimates indicated a crop of almost

1 million b'i.-s smaller than last season.


From early Jansuar. to February 20 there was a fairly steady advance in
American cotton prices in domestic markets, and on February 20 the average of
the ten spot in~.r-'ts was 6.64 cents per pound. This was 0.89 cents above the
price on tne first tusiiess day of January, 0.32 cents above February 1 and
was 1.75 cents above the low point of October 5. Iot since before early Aui.-st
when it became mno'"n that the present crop wo-ld be large, have prices in the
ten markets averaged as high as 6.64 ce-.ts. Since February 20, prices advanced
somewhat further and on February 25 the average of the spot markets for
Middling 7/8 inch was 6.68 cents. In most foreign markets prices of American
cotton in tcrir.s of gold have also advanced some during the past month and a
half. At Liverpool on February 19 American MAiddling 7/8 was quoted at 5.95
pence per pound equivalent to 8.53 cents per pound when converted at the rate
of exchange existing that day and coimpres with a price of 7.86 cents on
January 15. The of American fiddling and Low Middling at Liverpool
during January was only 4.3 per cent above the avra:'ge of three important
types of Indian cotton. Luring February prices of Indian cotton have shown
less strength than prices of American cotton and during the first three weeks
of February. American cotton average 6.1 per cent above Indian. At Bremenn
during February prices of Indiar cottons also beaone relatively cheaper as
compared with American than during the previous month. About the middle of
February the price of four competitive t.y'e., of Indian cotton averaged practi-
cally the same as American Midiling, whereas, a month earlier these four types
of Indian cotton were 6 per cent higher than mnurican and- in Deceimber were
1 per cent higher. Indian cotton, however, is still relatively high as com-
pared with American. Prices of EgptiRn cotton have also been weaker than
prices of American during the past three or four months and about the middle
of February Eyptian Uppers at Liverpool were 12 per cent lower than the price
of Strict fiddling American 1-1/16" at Bremen; whereas, a month earlier they
were only 3 per cent below. This is probably about as cheap (relative to
American) as Egyptian has been for maay seasons.

Stocks a;.d Iovement

Apparent supply of Americrn cotton in the United Stptes

Due to much Ic.rger exports in Janu-..ry this year than in January 1931,
the disapperr-'nce (exports plus consumption) of American cotton during the past
month was almost 40C0,000 bdles larger than during January 1931, but on February
1 the apparent supply remaining in the United States wos still almost 15.7
million bales compared with 11.7 million bales a earlier and 12.2 million

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bales on February 1, 1927. The decrease during January this season was
1,345,000 bales, (919,000 Lales due to exports and 426,000 bales due to
domestic coo2sutntion) ai.d was larger them either last year or the year before.

Stocks at domestic constquinj establishments

,Tnhil the total amount of cotton in the United States at the end of
January was about 4 million bales larger than a yecr earlier, stocks held in
consuming establishments were only slightly larger. At the end of January,
stocks of raw cotton neld by mills in the United States amounted to 1,637,000
running bales compared with 1,618,600 bales a year earlier. For almost a
year and a half these stocks reports of the Burocu of the Census have shown
that domestic i.ill.s have maintained smaller supplies of raw material than in
the corresponding period the previous year. With the exception of last year,
stocks on January 31 this year were the lowest for that date since 1925.

Stocks of foreign cotton at consuming establishments at the end of
January were the lowest for that date since 1918. The 55,000 bales compares
with 95,000 bales a year earlier and 96,000 bales two years earlier.

'orld visible suq-m: cotton outside United States

Or February 12 the visible supply of American cotton outside the
United States amounted to 1,426,000 running bales compared with 1,789,000
bales at thu same time a yuar eaSlier, 1,774,000 bales two years earlier,
and 2,200,000 bales three years earlier, according to reports of the
Commercial and Financial Chronicle. These visible supply figures do not
include the cotton in Japan and Chlina and during the fow months those
countries n1ve taken unusually largo amounts of i.-mrican cotton. Even so,
however, it is true that b, far the grjat3st increase in the supply of
American cotton is in that located in the United States.

In the case of foreign grown cotton the world visible supply on
February 12 amounted to 1, 22,;00 running bales compared with 2,481,000
bales twelve months earlier, and 2,70,00, 0 bales at the same time in 1930.
In the past the largest item in these visible supply figures of foreign
cotton has been tie stocks of Indian cotton at Bombay, and, at about
February 12 in each of the years 1929, 1930 and 1931 stocks at Bombay have
been about 1 million bales. On February 12 this year, however, stocks at
Bombay amounted to l,-ss than 500,000 bales, reflecting the short Indian
crop and thz heavy demands by mills in India. The large stocks of Egyptian
cotton at Alexu drija are not so much a result of largo production in 1930-31
or in the present season as of the decreased consumption and a tendency
among spinners to dc'creaso the amount of cotton on hand.

Exn.oorts of -namrican cotton

Domestic cotton exports during January amounted to 919,000 running
bales, an increase of 38 ,000 bales or 72 per cent over January 1931 and
were the largest for the month of January since 1927, according to reports



of the Bureau of t'h Census. 'Th total erxports to all coMntries for the
seas n to th.- .-nd 01' J.u'.,i' :... utc to -, 54,0( 0 bel s which is 475,000
bales or 11 per cent above the first six :on ths of 1930-31 and 63,000 bales
above the same period in 1929-30. For the first half of 1931-32 Ja:pan,
China and Italy were the only important s3?rs of Ai.I-rrican cotton and took
more cotton than in the corresi.oinding period of 1930-31. During each of the
three months from l.ovember thrrou h Jruary, however, Irmoe was the only
important country vwh.ich did not take a larger amount of our exports than
during the corresponling Tpariod in 1930-31. Ex:poits to Great Britain in
recent months have shown the greatest improvement when compared with last
season due to the fact t;I.-t er:iorts to Great Britain were maintained at
fairly high levels diiring t',e first two or three months of last season and
then declined sniarply, whereas, this season they were unusually low the
first t:.o months and since then have been larger. During Janu.ary exports
to the United Kingdom were more Than 2-- times as large as in January 1931,
and for the first half of the season ;were only 10 per cent below the corres-
ponding period of last season. The improvement in exports to Great Britain
reflects an imn:rovcment in th.- textile situation v.hich followed the abandon-
ment of the gold standard which resulted in increased activity, larger cloth
exports, and incrjasod for.:ardings of raw.' cotton to mills. It also reflects
some displacement of Indian cotton. The larg export movement to Japan
and China has boon duo to such factors as the short Indian and Chinese
crops, increased textile activity and the desire of the Japanese to accumu-
late large stocks of the cho.a Amerrican stc.ple before the abandonment of
the gold standard by the Japanese Government.

Reports of Irdian cotton

From .Lugust 1 to i'bruary 9, total exports of raw cotton from India
amounted to only F99,00u1 running bales compared with 1,759,000 bales during
the corresponding pteiiod the previous year, or a decrease of about 49 per cent,
and wcro only a little mor, than half as large as in the corrospondirn
period in 1929-30, according to the Commercial and Fina-ncial Chronicle. As
the season progresses exports drol: farther and farther below last season.
The Continent continues to take the smallest amount relative to last season,
and during the four weeks ended February 9 took 69 per cent less Indian
cotton than in sure period in 1930-31. These low exports reflect both
a short crop and increased requirements of Indian mills, for v;.ilo the crop
is expected to be much below last year it is not expected to be as much
blow as exports or .as receipts .it Bombay have boon. The high rate of
consumption by Indian mills is due at least in rart to the tendency of India
to reduce the use of foreiLn goods.

Receipts of Indian cotton at Bombay

Up to February 9 receipts of Indian cotton at Domba.y for the season
totaled 769,000 running bales which compares with 1,748,000 bales and
2,004,000 b:los during the sme -coriod in 1950-31 -ind 1929-30, or a

- 5 -

I ? '

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of 56 n.rd 62 cent r.spl ctivl.y, :.czor..irg to reports of thi- Commorcial
and rin..nci-l Chronic1:. During t:h four we ks or.dld .'Fbruary 9, Bomba.y
recer.ipts ver- 243,00U b'_leJ;, 60 Lnd 63 per cent respcctively below' the,.inr pe'ricds last season and the season before. These low receipts
reflect the sm.nll crop, increas-ed takings Ly Indi.n mills and perhaps
some holdin- t:ndciuc, on- the pLrt of producers.

ATco-i1:ts and export.- a.t lex..ndri., Ept

From. August 1 to Iebruarj 8 rccipts of cotton Ct ilcxc.ndria iero
6 per cent lI'rger th-.n during t"- sc:ic .riod in 1930-31, but were 8 per
cent blow the sc.:. y;riod of 1D'9-30. Tota.l exports dry'ing this period
vwero above both l-st sc-.-son canr the s,-ason before, accordingg to figures
shovrr in the Chronicle. Last r :son, eho;wver, thure wa.s a change in the
normal me.thlod of ginning the ocrp whichh caused the receipts at alcxandria
to la. behind vha.t they ordin...;rily would havc bcon had the ginning pro-
coduro boon normal. This, thcrcfore, probL.bly c:M:plain whly the receipts
this season have been larger than last although the crop is e;xected to
be about 27 rer cent smaller than in 19.30-31. For the season to February 8,
e::ports from Egy;pt have been about 18 per cent larger than from August 1
to February 8, in 1930-31. During last season the Egyptian Covernment
oUrned auite a large proportion of the stocks of raw, cotton v.hich were
being held o;i the market. A- pert of this cotton ,'as purchased by the
Government in 1929-30, and a part of it \:as that on which h the C-cvernment
had advanced loans to grovers based on the market value of the cotton which
-.;as more than th.e value at the time it was harvested. The Government had
-advinoed loans to jro:.ers on seed cotton, and the cotton 'was stored as
seed cotton for a -..ile, probably with the hope that the market would
advance In February last year thore was some advance in prices and the
Government sold a little over one-fourth of the cotton upon -hich loans
had b:oen made. Ey M,:ay 10, ho-wevcr, the Government started ginning and
sellii-. the remainder of this cotton. This explains to some extent the
drag in ginnings and receipts at llex-;andria last season as vell as the
low ex::prts. The. cotton which was purchased in an effort to stabilize
prices r/as sold only in small amounts prior to February 1931 ar.d at that
time the Governmen_ t d-clarod that no more of this cotton 'woulJ. bo sold
until after -.ugust 31, 1931 and that sales after that date be made
only as.- the nrrkot could absorb it and thc.t not moro than 500,J'DJ kantars
equivalentt to about 104,000 balos of 478 pounds) would be disrosod of
annually. The now, crop is moving to market freely and with sales out of
3ove:. lt-.nt -toiks taking placc it is, therefore, easy to soee w;hry receipts
and c-::-.orts at Aolxcndcrira as -..el as ginning this season up to the end
of Jc n;:,.ry -:or all large compared .rith season, vrhe~ons, the cro
is now estimated at 27 pfr cent lses than in .19.0-31.


Textile Situ+.tion

Co rs-:.j;tion r, domestic .-.ills was smaller than in Jan~lr, last yecar and
sho'.'rd loss th-.:i the usual seasonal adv.nce. Sales of domestic cotton cloth
in JLan.-r ho'.ever, were c: j largest since S:etembor 1929 A id shipments v;ere
the lr:les sin~r F'ru'ary I-.'0, ..nd altho-u h prfdu.tion v." c the largest for
twcnt:--o:.e .-ont:.s, st o.,s decreasod and. uni'illed or-lcs iicr,. sjd. In 2uropezn
tmar'.:c; s co.-litiono d-'.rin the past l,..'ilth reu.ainjd :;.t ibout the s-'Je low lovols
while i. thi-e 0'i nt lar.lJr proportions of _'.c.orican cotton car4 being consO:-.fli,
bt i: ti o Shan-, district of China military operations have rduc :-.d mill
activit-. ..ill co:.surotion in India continues at rather hih levels which
togothr wit. tlhe i.'i cror. has greatly rcllu.ed the export -,le surplus of cotton. T'.is has brought relatively high pri .s for i.,di an cotton and
India .ns imported record a,.i ,unts of American cotton.

Unitlo S t:ts

Do.,,istic C.-tto.n consv:.;?tion in Jantu-ry, although abovo Dceo.-Ioor, incroas.;d
loss than u.sual. T3t..1 co'.su.-.tion in Janu..r.1 amounted to 455,300 running, bales
co,;.par3d 'ith. 416,000 'ols in Doce-iber and 450,000 bales in .Janu-.ry 17..1,
accordiin to r.jports of tihe 3; of the Census. The increase of 4.8 -.;r cent
frori Doc-:.',r to Januar-, this season ca.'pc.res with an avera. o incro.-so of 14.0
Dpr 3,.it durrin t-ic -c:.3t five seison-s. The tctal cons-a ntion for the first hl:f
)f toe seo.son oim:,unted to 2,,3)1,000 bales, 171,000 bales or 7.0 per cent above e
the 1'5 1-'-1 purioed bit 20.6 per cent below consuv-iption fro! AuIgust to January;

S:.les 1o' lo,-.istic st.:dcl rd cotton cloth during Jan uary avoer.:Ged 53.2
million ':.rds per veek which '.:.\3 the 1. r,.st ...vori-jo since So tombor 19.' and
sh:.;. :~.its or. t.i 1 rjost since F'riru-'.ry 1" according to reports fro~l the
..ssjci:.ti.:,.. of Cotton rf;xtilo h.terch:nts of I.-w Yor'". T. rate of production
was also t... highest for aL r.-st two, but sales -nd shi -,::i-its wore sufficient
to red-- uc.. toc.Ls during the ionth by 12.5 per cent :-nd to incre-ose unfilled
ordr-s bj, 1].5 per c nt.

Gre",t Brit.i.-i

Co.p,.-r,,l ith the correspondIng n:o, !th- last seaso-n Co: rts of cotton piece
goods fr.i Gr- ..t Lritain sho%,ucd a st2d.-r i'.prcvemnent r1ionth this season Luntil
exorts ir. Dc.b)rJr exctjld: those of December 1930 by raore than 15 per cent.
This v -s t..o first ionthi since July 1929 in which' total 3xp"rts to all countries
exce-:'.dcd those :of a year oeriier. T'.e relative improvement in the British piecc
30ods e::.: rt situ.ti '.' is d.' l:'..roly to incre .s:d oxorts to India. In each of
the three ;cnrths, Octoher to Dcuiijour, oxp:its to Indir.. li ve boon above the s.nio
jnontt t-',2 previous ;^r a.-d in Dcc. -1ar "-ore r.orc than 59 per cent reator than
in D.combjcr 1930, In .dd;tion there has been soa.e incre.soe :in the amount .%;ing
t- Ch..-i... -rob:-bl a.s a result :-, the j:in : se boycott of Jap:ea~Iso ;oods, ,,t in
early br....r t.e crisis at S..nlh: i was said to h v3 decidedly .ffocted tho
ship.i-ents of goods to C:ii.L.. British homn tr.'.dD w,,s .:ore optl.iis ic in late
January alt:,ou. I the partial stri.:o in the Burnley are:, is distairbin$ factor in
t:o. siti.uaticon. In rid-Jruvary, however, a definite sottl.i;li.t of the more-looms-
por-op)erativ dispute _7as rc-orted as ncarer.



Continental E-.ropc 1/

JTnuary troujht no si,.'ificant change in the Baropeen cotton textile
situation, although the ;enera.l level of activity in the mills seems to have
fallen slightly after assu..iin(u an upward tendency d'i.ring the fall and early
;'nter in mianry parts of the, C ontire.-t. The volmne of ;9ew business booked by
the ind-.stryr during Januaryr ao .,cars to have -n.dergone little ch:nane on the
Continent as a whole, .vi-th so:ie du line in Ceotral .- rope offset by slightly
better boo:ki- .C in ..2csctr.-n urope and Italy. The failure of mill activity to
ho-ld up scemi-s to rest substantially upon lackc of support front new orders.

S.i.ncr bu;in.; of r:;:. cotTon durhu-: Janua.ry :.-.s liMited, although price
fix .1 is reported to h-ave ac-'eainedl consideratlu import nee j rtic l early
d.urin- the advanced in, prices in the first half of the month. The impressive
resist.ince -f thei cotton m:r.:t to various uiifavorable cver-ts in recent jcelcs,
whic h]cs apiaxrenotl; boon based on the evidence of expanding world cotton
coins-.'jipton, and rl eav? cro deficits in India and Chin:, .nd reduced crops
in other forei,;n countries h?.s contributed significantl- to the better feeling
anon, continental sp'-nnors.

_.ionL the3 factors -ifavor-blj to t tih continental cotton. indu-str:- is
th-.t i.' L-ie currency' rtgulA.tioIns introduced in so iman' countries, notab>'- in
Central uroe. Botih uztri rnd Cz:c.noslova!:.ia, as wo.L1 as hung..ry, have
difficulty in pr.curing for.i ;n excha.n~u niecessarl: for ra.: cotton purchases,
and somel.- o,.ilicnts arc also heardr d in Germiany, though tl-h latter do not seem
justifi o.. Those exchaniie restrictions, moreover, are dist.-rbii;, normi-al trade
in cotton .'arn and fabrics continental c;o-untriecs. Cc plaint iLs
increasing in re-*rd to British competition in both don stic and coupotitive':ots, as w7ll as thZ difficult- of sclllin to depr'ciatci currency countries,
v'wn.er2 ever; effort is bein_. :, to prevent prices froi.mi advancing .


Prollinary reports point to the probability of Ger:..:.rn cotton. mill
occupation, lund;rgoeo a ;on-ral sli-ht recession duri-.A Jan',.try, both
in t-ie spi-uing and 'o '.vin, sections. Thej GCerian spinners and *:7..rers re-ort
fotr Dcc-i.e.r a'inouJriced v-r sm.l11 orders for cotton yari, -it-. slcs on a
level co:-sidoracbly bclol:w previous j.months. January report sl.o1ws sales still
restrict i t'-th 'coon co:mptition front 3ritish fine :-arn. In fabrics, too,
pronounced reluctj.unce w1-s Dvildent during December ..:ith hand-to-Imouth buying
.zneral, nct'.ithstand:i.;tL,- a conisid,.rablo sti :ulus in orders for the Christmas
:holidz'- trade, as a rcsr-lt of sm- 11 stocks in the hands of many retailers and
'.:ol':sal rs, but. duri'" fbric saljs wer sor(Ciwht better althou..g
prices "'oro bad. Such '-l;. i --.s dovclopci in Deco:nbor, hovovcr, confined
l=.l:- .Lto the first :.h \l ot .'.- ,!o;Lth, interest in both yarn and fabrics
the rea.ft.r bcin; Iate riallr influvnccd by' t.h Government's -;.lorcncy Dec-oe
and its rice relducin, re-ulatlons, \.-hich caused a gener-.ll: hesitant attitude
amion5, buy.jrs.

,1 Based lar-;uly on a' r';ort front A`:.ricultulral Attache L. V. Sto'roc at Bjrlin,
dated 5, 19.32, su;pl_,oi.cnted b' cable i'ebru-.ry 16.


It should be noted that t-he " -of-t-Lc-y..r" silos are r-.portd
to have boon not unsatisfactor-. 1Rsults of tho aLniual "wvi'ite s.l," now
in progress are not .eot app..rnt, but retail prices of cotton textiles have
been sharply reduced, and it is not unlikely that the volumn of business will
be satisfactory, considering -present economic conditions. Reoorts, furthermore,
indic-.te that the situation, with regard to stocks of finished and semi-finishci
goods, remain quite favorable throughout textile distributing channels in
Germany which is favorable to the maintenance of mill activity and cotton
c onsu-lpti on.

Rccr-itly published fi-lrcs show that German cotton spi-ning and weaving
mill cactvity rose considerably during the fall months. Scason:.l factors are a
partial explanation, but the improvement was more than scasonal, doubtless duo
to the necessity of replenishing low stocks to meet current demand. The tread
of raw cotton prices during this period may also have been a factor.

The fine mills in Germany continue to make active complaint
about serious British competition. This applies particularly to German
export markets, in which both German spinners and weavers appear to be fi.: i n g
it almost impossible to compete with British firms. Ger'.nny's export sales
to England, Scandinavia and Holland have -undorgono a rather sharp decline.

German spinner interest in raw cotton was relatively food during the
first half of Janu.r following the holidays dullness in December, but hand-
to-mouth buying was again resueod after the middle of the month. Uncertainty
about international political developments is belicvei to have boon an
important cause of this quieter trend. Trade reports, ho':ovor, have repeatedly
stated that low gradess of Ami'ric n cotton have been the object of particular
interest in recent weeks, a reflection, doubtless, of the relatively high
prices now prevailing for competitive Indian staples.

Th. restrictions on forci.Tn c::chango prevailing in Germa:. do not ap. 1.r,
as :ct, to hvce been any grTau obstacle to import purchases of ra cotton,
alth1cug': it r-;ay be true that incrcsced co'-plications involved in the actual
doing ; of business under strict C-ov-erunmint supervision have i -.d an obstructive
effect in the rcnew!ing or rcpayn.'int of reimbursement credits.


January developments in the Czechoslovakian cotton teotile irn'Ustry are
re-orted to have boon unsatisfactory. Some decline in operations sooms to have
developed, particularly in Ec;i'iia, follo'vingi a rise in mill ;activity during
th-- fall months.

Cz choslovalzian clot, rina. rs, as well as spinners, complain of oxcood-
ingly Lrcat difficulty in export business as a result of growing British
co..ipetition, as viwll .s the restrictive influence of dpreciatce currency in
numncro~.s important mar'k.ts, such as thc Sc".ndinavian co-ntries. Czochoslovakia s
most i.._.ortant customers, Austria and Hungary, moreover, IhaI& severe import
restrictions in their foreoin exchange regulations, which are being adiinisterc.
in a ..ann r that almost excludes to::tilo imports, at least for the time bein,.
It is significant that the Czechoslovakian cotton industry is heavily dependent
on its export markets.

J-77 -10--


Prospects for t-e Austrian cotton textile industry rer.iain very
unencouraging, not-.tithstandins a certain seasonal pick-up in.mill activity
during, the fall months which was apparently due largely to a flight into
"real-vAil.ues" and was in no way a sound development. At present Austrian cotton
s-inners and ".e..vers are profiting somewhat from the restriction of cotton yarn
an. cloth imports through the regulations on foreign exch .nge, yet at the s'ie
time, they are encountering difficulty in procuring currency to pay; for r'.u
material. It does not seem, therefore, that cotton cons'.tuiption will increase
in Austria to offset tha reduction which Czechoslovakia is experiencing from
inability to export.

Real recovery in Austri is dependent upon the return of better conditions
in egner:1 business.


Re`orts from v,:-.rious sou-rces indic..te that for some time the French
cotton textile industry a-nd its spokesman in the French Senate been
urrentl.y pressing for Goverrnment ne.sures to bring relief, and the position of
the industry has continued rel .ively unsatisf ctory through January., notwith-
st-.ndin, so30.: signs of iu.iro-emenit.

Follo'.ing a period of limited ne: bookings e .rly in January, spinners
reported some revival in orders during the second half in many sections of
the country. The same '.-.s true of neu business for the cloth mills. Toward
the and of January other observers also reported a considerable increase in
the: vollmie of sales of cotton fabrics to the Indies. lcgiurs and Tunis *:ere
less s-.tisf ctory buyers, although takings by both of these countries uore
better than in previous wolees.

.' somewhat better sentiment also seems to have developed on the French
ra:.: cotton market in January.. The volume of njw purcia sos by, spinners was,
ho'.,:eer, still rather restricted, though price fixing during the .-onth was
in .crt ant.

Another favorable factor for France his been the anno-unceienOt of
important ::age reductions "-ithout significant resistance on the part of tc::tilo
workers. It seems reasonable that this development ::ill prove important from
the standpoint of the cost probloe~.

r. review of French foreign trade statistics and the figures on cottori
rill activityy for the past several months sho':s the significant

Spin-inin-g riill activity during the months of Febru .ry-Jun), 1931 -:*.as
approximately 20 per cent belo'. aJctivity in the same period of 1930, while e
cotton imports during the cormoarable period -Janu:.ry-i7ay 1931 "-;ere only 7 per
cent belo': Januar'-i.iayr 1930. Those figures point to the accumulc.tion of ra".
cotton during the. first part j1 1951, .:liich -i..s actually the

C -?7- -11-

SIn the innihths of July-Iovember, 1931, on the other h:nd, French cotton
mill -ictvity was 24 oer cent belo~t activity in the-corres.onding months of
1930, w.-.ile r:'" cotton im orts fir the co i:.rble periodd June-October 1.-31
dro:;jed as ..c.i as 50 per cent below i.n-orts in June-October 1930. 'hre
seems ev-c-r re: son to conclude, therefore, th:.t stocks of r::'.' cotton in
France --ave been :'cwr'.:cd down considerably d.;rin2 the last half of 1931 and
that is of course favorable to increased purc..;ses once conditions begin
to improve. I.-:.,orts in tne month of 1K6vember, in fact, were less than one-
fourth of tckil.-s in1 loveimber 1930 and exports from the United SiLtes to
France for t. first half of the '131-32 season were 72 per cent below the
like period last sc'.son.


I;for,..Etio1n on cotton textile developments in Italy points to the
continu-tion, ."e1l into January, of the te;r.dr:.c. toward improvement previous-
ly evident. T.L iEaintenance of a f-vor..ble r.tio between sales of new yarn
and yarn production ro.'notes a further reduction in stocks and also that the
industr-,' is holdinI to a conservative production policy. Output is evidently
being stepped up orn1, '.fr3 the decline in 'ar:. stocks has gone far enough
Sto make an icre~se in pro, ..ction advisable. Furthermore, unfilled orders
for yarn are considerably -hig:r than a year ago, tliough not yet up to the
levels pr.eriii;.g at the be.i:-,iing of 1930. Spi:nia. mill activity .;as also
risen thc. o..l;,' to a small extent, as is also true in the cloth mills,
with the -iiera..l le'ivl of occupation about equal to that of last year at
this time.


The position of. the Polish cotton industry has shc'n little change in
recent wee'.:s fro-. the unsatisfactory conditions hitherto prevailing, but
Government .easi:res recently taken seem likely to bring changes in the near

'ith the object of bringing relief from the chaotic conditions which
have lon, prevailed in the Polish cotton textile industry, through stp.-. whichh
will bring som-n measuree of control of production and the raising aind main-
tenance of *ricas at more satisfactory levels, the Governnent has adopted a
tariff of s~rven zlot.:s per 100 kcs. (0.36 cents per pound) on raw cotton.
Previously raw cotton enteredd duty free. The r.w tariff mriasure provides,
however, t.h~.t. the ;uty jnay be reduced to one zloty (.051 cents) on special
permit oi tnh ministryy of Co,-inmnfrce. It is re-iorted to be the Government's
intention to .,rLnt tnis special duty. to the larger cotton 'nills which have been
*. ainerents to the cotton cartel, but to refuse it to the small mills,
whicn in t.-i : past have ter.ed to operate inde-ocn'idntly, unless they will
adhere to t-.e cartel agree:entAr or purcnhse raw Lmn.terial through the larger

Some doubt is expressed as to whether~ the Government's plan will be
of advantage to the industry, in the long run, Quotations for yarn have already
been adv.nccd an. it is expected that ,rices for fabrics will folio', even
though clotn prices in Poland ar- already considerably tha i in
Germany. On t:ic other hand, further reduction in work.:ii; hours in tre spinnrinr


mills has already occurred, as a result of which it is expected that surplus
stocks of cotton:. products will be worked down.


The production of finished cloth by the Russian textile industry in
tne first trree weeks of January 1932 is reported to have been 137.0 million
yards or 1.8 pcer cent below output in the sane weelzs last year. Yarn pro-
duction for the same period is reported as 9.8 per cent above the cor-espond-
ing figures last year. Indications are, however, that mill activity in
J~inuary 1931 -:as below that of the previous year and perhaps below that of


Ctton mills in India have been very active this season. During each
of the first six months of t.e season consumr.tion of Indian cotton in Indian
mills has been larger than in the corresponding months of the 1930-31
season. For tr.e firnt half of tne 1931-32 season total consumption of Indian
cotton amounted to about 1,208,000 bcles of 400 pounds or an equivalent of
about 1,011,000 bales of 47. pounds which compares with a consumption of
925,000 bales during the li'.e period last season or an increase of about
9.3 per cent. With the exception of the 1929-30 season the rate of mill
activity so far tris season in India has been the highest on record. In fact
consumption du-ring the August to January period this season was less than
2 per cent smaller than during August to January in 1929-30. Supplies of
Indian cotton, however, have been much smaller than in recent years and prices
much higher relative to other cottons. This high rate of activity in India
reflects the effort on the part of India. to eliminate foreign goods.

As a result of the high mill activity and short domestic cotton supplies
and the relatively high prices for Indian cotton, India has taken unusually
large amounts of Armerican cotton. During the five months August through
December exports of American cotton to India amounted to about 73,000 running
bales compared with 38,000 bales during the s3JTie period last season, an in-
crease of more than 90 Der cent, and were more than 50 per cent larger than
during the same period in 1126-27.

J apan

The trend of raw cotton prices in Japan during December continued in
favor of American v.wich advanced 7 per cent while Indian Oomras rose 8 per
cent. Spot .arn was unchanged and yarn futures rose 3 per cent, according to
a report from Consul Donovan at Kobe.

Imports of Arerican cotton during Decernmbr amounted to 253,000 bales
compared with 143,000 bales in .oveimber and 96,000 bales in December 1930
whereas imports of Indian cotton amounted to only 54,000 bales in December
this season co.neiered with 64,000 bales during the preceding December. Sales
of American new crop cotton to Jananese mills is reported at 800,000 to
900,0JJ b.les and India.- about 100,000 bales a 0inst 500,000 to 600,000 bales
during a normal season. Japanese mills were not buying as freely during
the third weekly in January as in late December and early January.


0-7? -13-

Visible stocks of raw cotton in all Jeroan at the endI of December aount-
ed to 2.S5,0OC0 b,-ais of wi-.ic! Aj..erican w/as 1?C,000 ales o.-:L:,red with 142,j00
and 104,-O'jO bales rec spectively at.t the &j-ae time last season.

Eoi.,astic de:.a.nd for :..rn an^: piece g.oods was active in Jain.;-r' but
foreign dei an w"as poor 'uhj to 'i-ih prices. Since the abandounent of the
gold standard speculation i. :yarn and piece goods nas forced up prices out
of proportion to t;.e ,all in the value of the yen, with the result that ex-
porters cre in a difficult position. Yara production in December incrcs.zed
sli:htly- to 229,423 bales of about 400 aiunds which compares with 214,000 bales
produced in r'.ccmr!br 1930. Ex ,ports of yarn, however, in December amounted to
only 3,791 bales co:,oared with 2,631 bales in the frecedii. Dec'cber.

Exprts of piece goods fell off considerably in December amounting to
only: 7,5. million square yards a;,inst 25.3 million square yards in november
and 123.0 million in December li'30. The Chinese boycott and the civil dis-
turcance in India -re considered largely responsible for the decline in ex-
ports but hnin prices were also a contributing factor, particularly in view
of the lower prices existing for British goods.

Ch ina

Disturbed conditions, particularly around Snanghni, where a large part
of the cotton rills of China arc located, have seriously affected the cotton
industry, and yarn production about the middle of Februar,y was estimated at
only about 20 per cent of capacity, according to a cable from Agricultural
Commissioner Lawson at Shanghai. The Japanese mills in and around Siha hai
were not operating at tha-t time, but some Chinese mills had opened and were
operating part time.

At the time tie cable was sent (February 13) no new business in yarn
or raw cotton was being done, but some improvement was expected within the
next week. :'ithn an improvement in shipping conditions yarn is expected to
move to I:antgtung and Szec' Stocl.-s of raw cotton were quite large with
warehouses ver:., congested, but stocks of yarn were not heavy The tight
money situation in native banr:s has made the hradlirn of bills difficult.

A special suJmary of the cotton situation at Shanghai was cabled by
Mr. Dawson on Febraary 24 in which he reported that only eight Chinese mills
were operating part time, one British mill and no Japanese mills were opcer:,t-
ing. Yarn production at that time was estimated at nbout 10 per cent of
capacity and the amount of cotton consur.ption in February in SC;1'r-:.i-.:. had
been extremely small. :Jills were hampered in their operations d'.e to the
generally disturbed situation but the worst obstacle was the cr ninued tight-
ness in the currency situation. The native banks are unv. nillin 0 t o.:'nLfer
funds to foreign banks wicich results in a suspension of delivery to ills.

Cotton stocks at warehouses, public storage places, aharves and mills
was estimated at close to 200,000 bales and a lack of storage space was
forcing rrany steamnrs to discharge cotton at Kobe and Hong.:ong.


Exportii: of yarn to South Chi;ioa froin existing stock was fairly active
and rmil!l in the territory adjacent to Shanjnai were selling output at
profitable prices. Since the outbreak of military operations insurance
prenliau1ls ave _,one as high as 5 p-r cent per month. At the time the cable
was sent they were between 1 and 2 per cent on amounts over 20,000 pounds
sterling. only applies to stocks stored alorg the river as it was
impossible to obtain coverage on cotton lyiin in the northern part of Shanghai
or on ojany Joupanese wharf.

Arrivals of cotton at Snnr.shai by February 24 had almost ceased,due to
the lack -of varcnouse space and the inability of effecting delivery to mills.
Inporters were ask--in. their home offices for postponement and some possible
cancellation of open contracts.

Acrea.e, Production Crop Conditions

Revised production estimates for a number of countries have been
received djrinu the past month or two which have been sufficient to necessi-
tate a r;.vision ini this Bureau's estimates of the world production. This
Bureau ihas long maintained a policy of accepting only the estimates of the
official 'Jovernmient crop reporting agency of all foreign producing countries
so far as possible unless there is-somnc very good reason to believe that
better estiriates may be obtained elsewhere. Since this Bureau's world estimates
are baS.ed upon the estimates of the individual countries any material change
in the estimates of the larger producing countries or a change in a number of
small cojntri.s nal:,a it. necessary to revise the world total, except of course
where revisio.nis for individual countries offset each other. A recent report
from the Department of Statistics of India shows that their revised estimates
for t:.e 1930-31 crop in India are running about 200,000 bales (of 478 pounds)
larger ti.a their previous estimates. Late reports from Russia indicate that
the crop in that country during the present season is likely to be at least
100,000 bvlcs sr.msllcr than was estimated. Due to thesu and other minor
changes in tn- estimates for 1930-31 a:? 1931-32 the estimated world production
has recently, been revised. For 1930-31 the estimate is now 25,6C0,000 bales
of 478 &o',--is for tne world including China, which compares with a previous
estimate of 25,400,000 bales. The revised estimate for the present crop
(1331-32) now stands -.t 27,300,000 bales. Tnis shows an estimated foreign
production this season about 1.3 million bales less than in 1930-31, but due
to the 3,0,',0,000 increase i-n domestic production the world estimate is
about 1.7 miillion bales larger than last season. It should be remembered
that the 1930-31 and the 1:93-32 estimates are still subject to farther
revision since the estimates for the various countries may be further revised.

United Sta;tes

Gin.ninls. Up to about January 16 the total domestic cotton innings
this season amounted to 15,992,000 running bales which was an increase of
634,0j balcs over gin-iings to December 13 and was only 624,000 bales smaller



than ginnings to the sane date during the l12C-27 season. Durir.g the
same period last season there were 13,594,000 bales ginned. It should be
remembered that tche bales ginned this season are unusually heavy and probably
weigh more than the average weight of the bales for any previous season.

Fertilizer tag sales. Sales of fertilizer tags in the eight most
important cotton States, (excluding O0kl;.'ho ma, a State which uses very little
fertilizer) were only 41.8 per cent as large as in January 1931, and, for
the two months Decem:-ber and January this season, tag sales in these States
were 44.5 per cent of those during the same period in 1930-31. Compared with
1930-31 tag sales for the two months ranged from 17.4 per cent in Georgia
to 63.4 ,er cent for South Carolina.


About. February 15 the Department of Statistics of the Indian Govern-
ment issued tne fourth forecast of the 1i31-32 acreage and the revised
estimate for the 1930-31 acreage -s of the sarme date last season. This
forecast includes practically the total area, excluding only cotton planted
very late in the season which usually constitutes only a small portion of
the total. Thn 1931-32 area was estimated at 23,511,000 acres, only 11,000
acres more t.ian tie revised figure for the s3'ie date in 1930-31, but the
acreage l2st year was tne smallest since 1922-23.

The second forecast of production, which is also the forecast for
practically the total crop was released at the same time as the fourth fore-
cast of acreage. This forecast of 3,349,000 bales of 478 pounds compares
with tne revised estimate for the sar.e time last season of 4,276,000 bales,
which is a decrease of about 22 per cent, indicating that the yields this
season nave been unusually low. Receipts at Eombay continue to run much
below previous years substantiating the fact that the present crop is a short
one, although a part of the small receipts is probably the result of the
relatively stror., demand of In.dian mills and in part to owners in the interior
howling for higher prices.


Total gimnings of Egyptian cotton up to February 1 amount--d to about
1,003,0J0 beles at 478 pounds, which compares with 1,106,000 bales giniedj dur-
ing tne corresoo din. period 1930-31 -.nd 1,245,000 bales iinLied to February
1, 1930. Relative to the size of the crop, ininnins so far this season have
been considerably larger than in 1930-31, due to the fact that the E,,yptian
Government advanced the growers a sum in excess of the market value of
the cotton at the time it was harvested and, therefore, took the cotton over
and stored it in the seed, hoping that the would advance. Although
total .iraings to the first of Febru...ry were only about 9 per cent below the



corresponding period last season, the estimated production of all cotton was
23 per cent less than 1930-31. Compared with the estimated decrease of
about 37 per cent in the production of Sakellaridis, innings of Sakellaridis
to February I were only 29 per cent below last season. Innings of other
varieties were 3 per cent smaller, while the estimate of the production is
18 per cent smaller.


The 1i31-32 production of cotton in Brazil is now estimated at 550,000
bales of 47S pounds, based largely on the official estimate of production
for ten of the N-orthern States, which usually produce about 80 per cent of
the total crop. This is a downward revision of 50,000 bales from the
previous esti:.ate and compares with an estimate of 460,000 bales for the 1930-
31 crop. Private estimates which have been cabled to this Bureau place
the 1931-32 crop at about 24,000 b.les below the above figure.


To information is available as to the absolute quantity of cotton
procured this year by the Russian officials but a recent statement indicated
that actual procurings to January 20 were 15.8 per cent above those of last
-car on the same date. In the past, procurings have been largely completed
by, January 20, and, an increase of 15.8 per cent over the procurings report-
ed for last year would mean a total procurement of between 1,800,000 and
1,900,000 bales of ginned cotton, depending upon the proportion of lint to
seed cotton.

Anglo-Egy-rpt i an Sudan

The preliminary estimate of the 1931-.32 Sudan crop released by the
Sudan Governimeut placed the present crop at between 155,000 and 176,000 bales
of 478 pounds which compares with a final estimate of 106,000 bales for
1930-31. On tne reported acreage planted to cotton this season the above esti-
mate would ;-ive a yield per acre between 208 and 236 pounds which would be
somewhat above the average for five years 1924-25 to 1928-29 and much above
the low yield of 1930-31 which, due to disease and insect damages, resulted
in the lowest yie-ld since 1924-25. The preliminary estimate made at the
same time last year indicated a yield rmch above the final yield.

C-77 -17-
Table 1.- Cotton: Acreage and production in countries reporting for 1931-32,
v:iti co"i : .'isonIs

: : : : :P recent e
Item and co:uitr1 : 19'-29 : 92-30 : I0-S : 1931-32 :1931-32 is
: : : : peli2inarl: of 15.33-31
: 1,0 '.0 : 0.0 : 1, ,C' :
SACRS c cres : ac'es : icrc : ace-:s : Per cent
United St tes .......: 45,241 : 4,,73 45,091 4: ,49r : 89.8
India 1/ ..........: 26,256 : 2o,177 : 23, 0 : 23,511 : 100.0
Russia ..............: 2,2E3 : ,.0 : 3,570 5,281 : 136.5
China ...............: 4,847 13 5,22 5,07 97.1
Egypt ...............: 1,05 : 1,911 : 2,12 : 1,747 : 80.8
Uganda...............: G99 :3 : 4 376 118.4
Chosen rea) ......: 503 : 46 : 47 : 41 :97.5
Anglo ~'yptiac Sudan.: 315 39 : 37 : 356 : 92.0
Mexico ..............: 02 492 : : 319 81.8
Syria and LIbaion....: 19 : ,0 : 60 : 76 : 126.7
Bulgaria ............: 13 : 14 : 13 : 13 : 100.0
Italian Sc.n il,;d...: 20 : 27 : 1 : 10 : .6
Eritrea .............: 6 6 : 7 6 85.7
Algeria .............: 12 : 14 : 10 : 3 : 30.0
Italy ................: : 8 : 9 : 2 : 22.2
Total above coun....: .-',26 : 62,67,,3 : 1,8 53 : 78,234 _
Estimated world
total .............: 67,400 : 7,7 0 : 6,700 : 81,000 : 93.4

: 1,00 : 1, : 1,0O : 1,000 :
:bales 478 :bales 473 :a;les 470 :lales -178 :
PECGUCTIOI :lbs'. net :ibs. .',-t :1 b. rnt :1-s. nct : Per cnt
United States .......: 14,476 : 14,2 13,32 16,918 : 121.4
India j ...........: 4,747 4,149 4,273 3,349 : 78.3
Russia ..............: 1,250 : 1,310 : 1,5b0 :J/ 1,900 : 122.6
China ................: 2,466 : 6 : 2,250 : 1, C : 80.0
Egypt ...............: 1, 2 1 1 1,2.6 77.4
Brazil .......... ....: 525 :4 : 3 :4/ 550 : 119.6
Mexico ..............: 273 : 246 170 : 207 : 116.3
Ugand ..............: 171 108 : 1 : 170 : 109.0
Anglo 3,;pti.n S-.i.dn.: 142 133 106 :/ 166 : 156.6
Chosen ..............: 130 : 13 : 154 : 136 : 8 .3
Syria a.iL L-bauncn ...: 4 : 14 : 1 : 17 : 141.7
Tangmany ika .........: 28 : 23 13 : 12 : 63.2
Aastralia. ..........; 5 : 8 : 10 : 10 : 100.0
French Ecquatorial....:::::
Africa ............ 1 3 7 5 71.4
Bulgaria ............: 3 4 :4 :5 : 125.0
Italian Son 7 8 : 3 : 4 : 13i.3
Eritrea ............: 1 1 :2 :2 : 100.0
Italy .... ... ... ..: : 3 : 4 : 1 : 25.0
Al eria .............: 6 : E : : 1 : 20.0
Total abovc countries: 25 .34 : 459 : E4' : 6 032 __ total.....: 26,0 : 2, 500 25,600 : 27,300 : 106.6
Compiled by +.:r Division of Statistical an- :-ictori-al Pesearch, partl, from
inion'e.tion received through tn.e Foreign A,.ricultura'l Scrvice. 0-ficial sources
and International Institute of Agriculvrre unless otherwise stated.
Notes on following, p;e.;~ Contd.-


Table 1.- Cotton: Acroage and production in countries reporting for 1931-32,
with comparisons (continued)

1To t s :

l/ Fourth forecast of acreacc, which includes totcl area except late plantings.
2/ Second of production which includes total crop except late
pl-n tin,s.
3/ Estiinmte of this Bureau.
4/ B.sed on officic.l estimate of the Brp.\.ilian Government for northern Brazil
(10 St-tres) which daring the fve; y:tarn nave produced a little ovzr
80 per cent of the total Brazili'n crop.
5/ Estimated -.s being between 155,000 .-d 176,000 bales.


- ----



....... r r. iLLirllUg

3 1262 08863 1204

1 Su ina-ry.- ..
2 Pric s . . . .
3 Stoci!s Mov nent . . .
4 T-xtilh Situation . . .
5 Contin.ental Europe . . .
6 Acragc;, Production, Crop Conditions. . .

1- 3
3 6
8 -14
14 18


1 Cotton: Acro:--ec Fid production in countries reporting for
1931-32, with comparisons ........... ... 17 18




C- 77

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