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ri /- UNITED 'ETIT OF AGHICULTURn
3urea ..,ricultural Economics
C-75 L December 31, 1931
u".-LL C4'7'01T 'RS^CTS
Luring the five weekss ended the last few days in Lecember, cotton price
fluctuations were rather small compared with the fluctuations of some of the
previous months, according to the Bureau of Agricultural .-onomics. During
This period the average price of I.iddling 7/t; inch stable in the 10 spot
markets ranged between 5.6 and 6.0 cents. At Liverpool and other important
foreign markets the prices of American.cotton continued to become cheaper
relative to most of the important foreign growths. During the first three
weeks of December the average price of American i.iddling and Low Miiddling at
Liverpool was cheaper relative to three important types of Indian cotton than
at any time in the 1926-27 season, the year in which foreign mills made marked
shifts to American cottun.
Although the exports of American cotton to the Orient during the first
four months this season were probably the largest on record for this period,
the total movement to all foreign countries was the smallest since the 1.-23-24
season, a season in which the domestic crop plus the carry-over in the United
States was about 47 per cent smaller than this season. exportss of cotton floro
India for the season to December 17 were 44. per cent below last season, whilel e
during this period exports from Egypt showed an increase over the 1930-51
season of about 20 per cent.
During November domestic mills consumed 7.2 per cent less cotton thin
during October, but about 3 per cent more than in Uovember 1.30, and for
the first four months of the season mill consumption was almost 11 rer cent
above the 1930-31 season. Domestic sales of cotton cloth during
i:ovnibt r 1931, while ljss than. in October, '.try above ilov.Jibcr 1930 and
r. hijCst o "r It. .ont" of Iov..ibcr siinc. 1928. Stocks of cloth
.t the 2nd of Ijovjombr 19E31 w!r C.bout 23 per c.nt bclow, and unfil.ld.
orders o.'cr 6 per cnrt abov a- yar c_.rliCr. In Great Britain the marked
iinrov.m.n.it ..i'ich folo';'d thc- disc.-rding of thj sold standard'did not
continu-C throughout liovrnmbr ..nd .i -rl- Dce:mbr, .znd, since. J.,an .-.s
recntl' :one off t.ic gold stnd.rrd, -rcat Britain is L:rp ctd.o n t
incre.asol coipntitin f:or,. th.: Jpanjus G.coods in n "In- for-ign in:m.rlts
c..ltouh t.h Chinos, boycott of Jacpanos .-'oods continues to i;.kj ChinA- a
more f.vorablc market for C-r.-.t Brit:-.in.
The textile situation on tho Continent of Suropi du-rin Niov.mber
failed to .laint~.in thi i-..:rov.:i.,nt '.h ich accon.)paiCd. th.-. Octobo. advance
in cotton -rices ,ndd on Dccci.iobr 1 condit'.ons vrore- ro",srt. -,s bin;., bout
th: sa.ioe as prior to Octou-_r. In Franc, the acc'walulaticn of toxtilo stoc':s
has co,.sod and in Italy stocks continue to d:cre-.s_ '/hilo unfilled orders
:h.ve sh:iv.n r-.du-.l incre-.sc lor s a.o time. On the whole the textile
situ-.tion in It-.l- is bAttor th-.; in a-ir of the other Continent-.l Europe-an
cmuntitries. J .-.n is feelinL the effects of the Chinese boycott r.s -re the
Jr.r.nose mills in CJ' in ., but this h1:s resulted in incre-.se. .ctivit:- in the
romr infor n.tion n ow .v il .bie it .1 .o:s s if the :roduction cf
cotton in the .rincii-.l foreign prciucinL c-'untrios. in 1931-32vwill be "bout
1 million b-les less thi:. in 1950-31. Indi-, Chin-., -:nd ypt y produce
.bn;ot 1,600,00' b-.les l'ss t:-.:; in 13j0-31, but ";. increase of a-ioest
600,03j b-los see;Is likzel in Ri.ssi-., Brazil, .nd :.;::ico combined. Te
decre-ase in foreign production is more th.n of-fst by 2fn increase of
.1 .ost million bales in the do.nestic -)rodlucti'an.
_ro..i the inidilc; of ove..;ber to t:e fourth wecl; in Dec;.i'oer cotton prices
in the domestic markoes l'..ctuat ''ithin a r..ther i.rrow: ran e. During
this p-eriod the avera;,e price of :iddli-,) 7/8 inch staple in the 10 markets
r:.s ran.ed bet-.Iee; 5.6 -.nd l.0 csnts per pound. On Decoiber 22 the aver .Ge
in these markets wcs c0.3 conts, which compares with 5.65 cents on iTovanler
23 and 3.91 cents o0. Djcc.ifoor 22, 1930. 'E-e Novemiber 15 aver ge United States
far-A price of cotton : is 6.1 cents per pound which :.as vert close to the
average price in the 10 sp)t ..ar'.:ts duri:'i the thrae or fo-r days around
the iaiddle of uhc riont ~' ihenA the far.:. price schodu.los are .:.de; out. The
relatively hi_~. 1.vcl o2 the 2f.r..: price comnpred ithl prices in the control
;~arlIets is no douot d1v.. to t-.o h:li quality of the cro- this season the
farm prices boi:-. tho av?,vr-. for all qualities of cotton, v:.aroas the
central markets prices are basod on a constant quality (Liddling 7/8 inch
The incre .so i-. 'the rcl..tiv- su-pl."- of _._n'ric n cotton this soCson
as coir'.rod '.'ith: the s~;- 1- o, forcij:, cotton, i.articularly Indian h.s
r-s-.tltod in the pricon of ..:..oric-.i cotton becor.miin choc,",0ir cad cheaper
rel.tivo to ,..ost foroi,.: .roit:hs. ii C.iina, AnAric:Ln c:'t ~on has recently boon
quoted at lo.wor prics then tle Chinese cotton. ..t Liverpool, the prices of
.-;ioricin coi.pa:cd w!ith Ind-ian continues to become choepor. During the first
three 'iocl:s in ..ce---.ir the 'ric.. of thrco' in...rt-nt ty)es of Indian cotton
aver.e1.d C1.2 *;rr coent of e ..vura,-e of A..iciican a:inrilin; and Low I iddlini
co:.ipaLroJ ..ith ''0 .3 .. c-n in Hovriri.4r, 86,4 per c3nt in October, 72.3 per
cent in5 Dcc ;-..r 1..0 :i.nd 90.5 uJr c.nt in D)cc'.fjr 1926, the 'oar in which
forijn spi;;nc.-s n.adi docidod .iiift to .mirican cotton.
3tocl:s and l.ovuiiont
.X.orts of ., t;rica cotton
D .e lrjol- tj the c -ntinu-'.e inz'Iaso irn :;'o:-ts of don:s-tic cotton
to th3 Oria'it, th tot.:l ox,- erts during, ovoimbur wcrc abc 18 per cent
abvo I~ovcuib.r, li'30, lbat '.:c to,.l ".1" t. tae sOs; l to t~ie ondi of iTovombar
was still abcat 10 .pr c-nt beolz, thj first for-r ..onths of l-st so.,.son,
accordin-' to r'p.orus of t-c .''co:.u of the Consus. 'ih oxex.rt iaovomant so
far t:is season h .s b-cn thi, s.iallst since th: 192i-2i s. son rwhon t'Io
cro0 plus the carry-ov&,r in t..: '.-nit ...atos vss aoo'ct 47 per cent smaller
than this sia.sDr. Nev.ii'..r ;: .-rts tot:.id 1,071,000 r-nning; b ;ils
coa:,;rcd with 908,000 bales i i;..1,li.a.-r lI.st ecar ,,ivin, a total for the
fo--r -.ionths this s...scn .f 2,8 4,000 bal-s -G'Linst 3,181,'0 balos 1 .st
season. Thosr '.iorJ 2-16, 30 b..lis c:rorted to Japan 1.riL._ :-'.:.rb.r this
year *.'-ich -c.s 144,000 balos or 140 per cant .. ov t:"- s.1 ..io.th l>st oar.
Total exports to Japan fro.n ...u';I.s 1 to ifvoambr -0 '.;:is season ar.i'-'-mitti to
373,300 br.los co.;rl.ro1 .;ith 355,3000 xlcs *,iu'ing the corrsel. rdi.i, period
last season, or an increase of 8O po r c ant. The c:rports to J -. the first
fur 1..cnths thi'. sas-n -,or.j )robabl the lr-.rjst on ro.ord for thizea
.aont-s. Ax;orts to Gr-a t B2it'uin iin eTo.J.ober cireC ahout 3 ar cent a '.3
iov.r.hcr, 1950, b-':t -or t~- so:.son t- t-ie oil cf iTov-:...b r r.ro about 2.
p)oe cent belovw tthe iA:'-c.;ut :ibor period lst s.:.stn.
I.-,ports cf foreg- n c. o ttjn int the Unitel. States
I;mDjrts :i ilove'i'j r ccntinuod to rual .:ie..c of- the corrces_ 3ndindi
:aOriod l1:.st season, th. total f.r the mricnth beirn 5,286 bales co;mxared. v-ith
3,410 b..:.ls in ll ve.i:.er 1"0, acc rdin,. to ra 0rts .i the Burea.. of the
Census. During, the f: o-r -nIths -'.nuist thrDugh, i'lIevDibr 21,2334 bales were
i.:ojrted, an increos f 3,,32 balos or 47 p or cent over- t'. first four
.:nt ts ..' t-he 1'30-1 se.s n. I..I:orts fromn .'gyt .ndi L:..::icc' showed the
roeat:st pick--u --i L.i:orts -r..a China ncl India ,vrel bowI 1 .st season.
Stoc'-.s at donrstic c ?:1s.'si'n est..blishllonts
..t'Lt? 1 stoc':s :2 :U- cotton :-.t d.o estic c ins'.Li t..blish."lents
s -:." .c s-3e soail. i:-cl't.."... o' f...1 1r; and. :' October t t'i end. :i L:vc.nbor,
t:1c .ore 123,1 r-. ... '-i l s 7.9 p-r cont bolowv a c-,r e;.rlier .atnd
.r:r t l:Y.st for t..2 -. t o rl' nib or sil-co l ,4. T..e tot .1 stocks of
,. 'inds :2 c:t.on -'.t t -. -.d :" iovei.ibcr aS:.iounted to 1, 41,000 rri'-niing
b:1ls co:.r. rJ tj .~ith :, 1,u,30 balas at th-i end of ':'cticbbr Land 1,564,000
b 1 .s :,: Ijt-::.. r 30, 31. 0.
.ill st,-:s U: .t .n c, tt.n _ain dic, .-,.s d. during ilo.-:..ib r which
is t.--! 17th co sllScutiv' .::nt i i.l U.h'ich th'lro Las b..Ln E. d.,cr. s, ths
d.cr.su b-iu iii.; -ir, Jul: 15350 ti..c first ;i;Ith it,.r ..; t-iff on
cjt:, :2 1-1/S8 inc-l ad lon. r in sta:-jl wlont int' el'oct. *'-lis puts tha
stc.::s cf ,.'tian la.'.r thiL-,n .t an_ ti- o since tie eUnd :f 1Dc '.libr, 1925.
St :'c:ks in .:-,'.blic st r:'r.. ,j d.. t c:rpr ssos in Uni t.d Stat- .s
L-:c::s :2 all c tt.'1 :. j.vv::.bur 30 this r ir- -i-blic stora.-'
ad ut c.njrs-s in j Ut....i. States woru "..r,, tha. i million bdlcs
1 .rr- t:.an the O..d .f Octch.r a:id ..r; than 2 .iilli -n b-.l.s 1..r;or thui
a -.r arli r. St'c :s .. 5 ;;tia. cottI in publicc store" ha:vr shy::n
al.:mst s. ste:.d. oclin:: 1sinc. th' tariff v'ent intc effect i.a JuL.o 1953,
al.u at u-U ,i :2 fJov..ioor this :'oar am unt.'l t : n.1 15,"'0 b .:s. .'l is
w:.s a cicr, 3sS :,f 18, 30 o:..l s or 54.5 .jor c ;nt ir.i t.c i..:v.:.:. r :;0,1 930
'orl visible su-:pl: ":: for i. n ort n1
...l tO vis' l s -- f ....nric c tt.n is :.-.u.. .Lr r -ih an
la.-'t ': r ;>: total .;i'olu sv.: 1: 2 -or ign cotton on D c16.ib.-r 18 'c.s
143,'00' rmLic b'.l, .' '?.'i r c..t 1 -ss than dur-in, the conrrosondircj
Srii -d :. *":.r -.rli..r ..: ': .2 p c .it s : 11 .t in t-. s: :.': j :, id in
1 2 a:: :, di:n- t .r s th Cj..i:r, r i'.,l .rd. Fi'n. ,r roriclc.
J.1_'. -".-, "J 9-S ..;llnd D. JC D.II b L I 9 1'j1 t' .'2. f
.... 1931 tsr p. .-CJ:L. f
1 ,. .: l s, v,'h r i. t..L c'irr.jsp? old.iL_ f:'vu' 'cu':s :f 1'30 thc.re
S.s ..n inroase f 1 1 ,00 0 b l.s in visible 3...;f .i. I
,192 .'j t :-..s .3 n ..vJ- ln..tr;cr incrc-.so during_ the corrscs 1I-.'.11:, 2-Jt.rid.
.Dt rc.ls -. r -n 3t n in Liver-oil ...d .1lc:: .dria 'i Jc:b-i'r 18
\or ab b. va. tA.'.s.) n J;co:.. ,r 13, 15'30. 3Stoc.s in 'Lc.ib.., :'n t'o 'ontinnit
i.2. I .hsC 2 fl '.t '.'. ,; i s t:h -t the s2.l' d:.t. i' 1''.0.
L,-jorts of cotton from India.
F1'r the four weo.:s endcl December 17,1931 total exports fror India
amounted to 94,0,30 rtu-iLii, bAles cop!ire "vi.th 191,0001 b.les during tlhe
corres-.onding period in 1930 -nd 185,000 bales in 192'', according to the
Commnercial and Financial Chronicle. For the se:so.t .':,z-st 1 to Deceniber 17
'total exports w-ere 627,0)0 b-.les, 502,000 bales or 44.5 per cent below the
corresponding period i i the 1'3.50-51 season r.,.i 27.4 per cent below 1929-30.
The Continent, Great Britain, Jap.ni, and C:'ina all have taken less Indian
cotton ~h'Lis season 'than last.
3x orts fro:;L "jpt
Fro.: A:uust 1 to Dece.iber 16 exports from Alex:andria totaled 395,000
r'unnriin bales compared wit. 32C,000 bales during the similar period in 1930
or an increase of 20.4 )er cent, :ccordin; to statistics -iven in the
Coir.'ercial and Financial Clronicle. All i mortant us)rs of .: -,tian cotton
:h.ave trJaken nore of the j'i.tia.n cotton so far this season than during the
sinil:.r "period last season. i or- the fouxr veels ended Dece,1ier 16 total
exports fronj1 yp)t ai.-icnt3d to 120,003 bales compared with 109,000 bales
during; this fou-r weeks -eriod in 1930.
fhile the consun)ptio;' of all kinds of cotton in the Unit.o:. States
duirinG bYovember, which cmo.-.nted to 429,000 r'uunning bales, -ias 33,000 b.les
or 7.2 per cent below O'0tober, it was aboit 14,000 bales or 3 5er cent above
November a ear a.go, accordin- to reports of the Bureau of t'he Census. The
decrease from October to 7Nove.iber this year was slightly more than during
tho past five years, the Avcrate deccrossc in this period bci.-i only 3.6 per
cent (21,000 bales). The total consumption of raw cotton during the first
fov-r months s this season ano-i'nted to 1,780,000 bales co;.1.parYrd with 1,605,000
balos during th: saiLu period. last season, or an increase of 10.9 per cent,
but '.as 22.2 per cent belowv the 1929-50 season.
Di.rinr ITovnmb-r the av-rago v-.a.ly sales of cotton cloth as report-
ed b~r the. .1-Osociation of Cotton. Txtile j.:rchants 3- Novi York showed a
marked decrease from the unusual. high levels of October, but woro 2.5
per cent above 1Hovemo~r 19J0, and cro the highest for the month of
llove.-ier since 1929. Sales avcr'a.ed 56.1 million yv:rds ,.-r weeo? ir.
llovc-.bor and iore equal to 96.9 per cent of the production rate. Tih
nckl;y rate of cloth production in Novci-oer was slightl;- above October and
was 12.0 -or cent above ov-:.;bcr 1930, but \V::s loss than production in
Novif.luor 1929C. Ship.lonts dvrine, Iov.rmber equ-aledr 92.4 per cent of pro-
duction. The net chane.o i. t.ic statistical position of this :-.h'c of the
domestic cloth industry -iurinC ]:cv',ibor was a 6.9 per cent incrxtss in
stoc.:s and a 3.0 )pr c-.it incr,:-so in unilillod ordJ'Is. As co,.ir-rod v;ith:
thj s:I-L time last yoe.r stoclrs of cloth at th l o-1d of 1Hov,.c:bor this year
worc 23.4 -:r cent bolow and iunfill:d orders weor 6.5 3or cent above.
U _Dor ccnt -I ov-
The increased exports of cotton piece goods from Great Britain which
took place following the abandonment of the gold standard were reflected in
the October report Wiich showed a total of-143.1 million yards, 14.6 million
yards or 11.4 per cent above September. The-increased export movement did
not continue through Niovember, however, although during the past ton years
exports in November have averaged slightly above October. This year
iloverber exports were 17.1 million yards or 12 per cent below October.
Sales of piece goods and yarns during Lovember and the first half of
December did not maintain the high levels reached soon after the discarding
of the gold standard and that extended throughout most of October. There
was a considerable amount of cloth inquiry from India about the middle of
December, but sales were limited. Buying for China at that time was fairly
large and the demand for home trade was reported as encouraging. Since
Japan has gone off the gold standard she is now in a better position to
compete with British manufacturers in foreign markets. The Chinese boycott
of Japanese goods, however, continues to ,make t:e Chinese market more favor-
able to Groat Britain.
Continurtal Europe during november 4/
November developments have borne out earlier indications that a real
recovery has not yet become evident in the continental cotton mill situation,
despite some pick-u) in October. The downturn in raw cotton prices during
:ovember and other unfavorable developments stopped most of the increase
in buying interest by manufacturers and distributors, and by December 1,
conditions were about the same as they- wore prior to October.
Nevertheless, it is obvious from the developments accompanying the
movement in the cotton market in the past two months that conditions are now
extremely sensitive to price movements and to general economic developments.
Once a basis for recovery is definitely created, it appears certain that
the Continental European demand for cotton will contribute strongly toward
the general upward movement in cotton consumption.
Although continental spinner and merchant commitments wore of fair
volume for raw cotton in prompt and near positions in early Novomber,
buying for the month as a whole was relatively limited. Buying dropped
off distinctly in the second half of the month under the influence of the
declining raw market and the general pessimism about approaching reparation
and dcbt negotiations which developed following the speech of Premier Laval.
While buying of actual cotton by spinners and merchants was, therefore,
rather small in November, spinners took advantage of low points in futures
quotations and prico fixing was relatively important on all sot-baccks.
... ... --.. -- Il- ~ -
&j' Based largely on report dated December 5, 1931 from Agricultural Attache
L. V. Stooro at Berlin supplemented by cable on December 15.
Now ordrs booked by contin.,rtal cotton ssLrn,.rs and woav-,rs during
November wore of g;-crally smaller volC .i th-n ..- Cc ;cbor, especially
during the second :-rt of th:e mor.ion. T.ic o:ti.nism y.ibitod while cotton
prices wore rising gave :,ry to hesitation, rad a r&.:-,.r gcnoral tendency
toward short-t: r' co..aIitc.ni.t on, a ha.d to mcuth eb.is s is .in evident.
Cotton mill Ectivit:, over the continent .s :. ,hole does not appear to have
changed materially _ron; the previous month, though it is pro bbl.1 that the
lovel of oe-rations Cor Gctobcr-i;ovL:. b.-r h:s boee so.iewhE.t above S3.:.i;,beor
over t;he cniUnent s ca "-.hole. Ti cotton to.tile stocks situation con-
tinues rolati. .l,' '-/ora.Jl. Central s.roic -s v r:,- low stocks at practi-
cally all poiTts in distributing chanlnoi, and stcc:k3 in Italy continue
the decline evident for sov.ral ir.onths. The ccnuim-tion of stocks in
France apm.o-rs to huvj ccas.:d, t. jugh the voliua. of both yarn and goods on
hand still a--r:.:rs i .ort;.nt. I-.tcost r-a..orts on production and sales in
Franicc, hov.ove.r, s.Sast a i.eore Ldlca:ccd tond-nc/.
Slovm:nbcr dovclopmeonts further strengthened t;ih impression that
conditions in thc Italian. cotton t.:tile industr- cr. more favorable than
is tile case in other im,.ortant cotton textile ;rrolucing countries on the
Continent. This is indicated not only by the develo--i-rent of orders, stocks
and activity, but also by figures on imports of raw cotton, of which Italy
has been the only country on teeo Continent to have- t-,en more cotton so far
this year than was taken last year.
German spinier a:nd veavr reports for the month of October indicated
a marked revival of 2ne1 orders, but iHove:.ber reports indicate that this
revival has not continued and t-at slovn'oss v'as a :ain the dominant note in
German yarn and cloth business during iovemrter. The October upturn was
partially seasonal, but undoubtedly due largely to rising cotton prices and
to the more optimistic feeling accor.:panyi.g the rise. Following. the sub-
stantial downturn which developed again i; i ovember and a rebirth of pessi-
mism in the trade and among speculators, German buying interest in textiles
has again weakened.
During the first half of 1iovember both spinning and weaving mills
were still doing a better volume of business than in August and September,
but quietness has been ;T.uch in evidence ar.ain dt.ri;i the second half of
the month, although some interest ias bern exhibited for winter goods, stocks
of which are reported very low. Textile export business is reported to -,ave
been materially checked by active British co-mpetition since the fall of the
pound, as an indirect result of which sales conditions in the Scandinavian
countries have also become : lore difficult, their currencies having followed
the pound. At the same time, fine cotton yr.rn and f'ine cotton fabrics are
also retorted to be encountering :-oen British competition within the German
customs boundaries, a development likewise diuC to tho d-epreciation in the
S round. German cotton manufacturers, particularly ma,:or of so cialtios,
also report the serious hampering of business with England as a result of
the new imrort tariffs rocontly introduced.
German cotton mill activity is reported to have shorm very little
change in Xovembcr as conrarod wJith the Jrevious *r.onth, but it appears
that the level of ol:crations in October-ilovem>.:er for both spimning and
waving cstablishxmorts hcs aveorc-ed above that mai, trined in Septcmbcr.
Spinner butyii:j of i&w cotton in Brermon :ias been rolativolu quiet
through iov:t'becr .'..,:i soS:.-.ahat ;.orc active int.-rest for ne-r and prompt
positions evident c.i.:tig tnc first part of the month. Price fixing, however,
has assumed fair p-oportions on veor; sJtba.ck, as spirnors scom to be in-
clinod to ta.ck a.dvL.ntua-e of the nowv decline in p.riccs. Low grade cotton
and short sttpl:-s have boon- in relatively good demand during the month, but
merchant c. i. f. Lbuing of raw cotton has beon limited.
Grman cotton industry is confronted with several difficult problems.
Various labor 'iffi..,-lti:3 have '.jveloped with partial strikes occurring in
difforcrt totz:tilo ccntcrs. Sovc-'l wa-go agreements have beon terminated
and nr-l;otiations rie no cl oinrJ carried on in regard to possible -.ago r-'duc-
tions. The r-noral effort t to reduce wlarcs in all industries evident in
Central Europ; and clso;-hcre on the Continent is, of course, imp-ortant from
the sta;nd-:oint of the cotton industry since the consumption of cotton goods
is matrially iL fluenced by increase or docr-asss in purchasing power.
Infora'ation on i;ovomnber dcvelopm-.nts in the cotton textile situation
in Czechoslovao-:ia is .olry limited, but such stateim:ents as have appeared
indicate that conditions have become so.iowhat woorsc in 3ohe-ia. The upturn
in r.,ill salas a.d Lctivity during Octoter was apparently not maintained dur-
ing iIove:,iber. Exports, moreover, are st,.ted to huve been considerably
ha:lipered by the foreifni exchange r.e restrictioz-s existing ii; Austria and Hungary,
a;.d by the crowin-g difficulty of conp eti:l- on practically all markets as a
result of British and Scandinavian currency dep-reciation.
Yet imports o- raw cotton into Czechoslovak'ia are indicated by recent
traCe statistics to have been muech smaller so far this season tian in any
-.ustrien cotton textile conditions continue extremely ur:satisfactory
and' uncertain. The -rocurement of raw-: cotton still seems rather difficult
because of the severe currency restrictions. On the other haid., sales of
cotton goods, like sales of other coT.mmodi'tios, continue to be stil.ulated by
the fear that another consilr'able depreciation of the z.ustrian currency
miAt CoevClop : ..Aid ceue tho no-; ioL-thor low prices to rise.
i:ovembor re-orts from t-e French cotton textile centers in~c.icate that
business in both yr.rns a:-d zoods has remained restricted, Lut Ct the same
tine, that no further accumulation of stocks has occurred. Dritish competition
in fine counts of yarn and fine :;eacvings is strongly complained of both in
the French and in tho foroign'markcts. It appears that no-.' sales of spinners
and weavers declined somewhat during the second part of the month, so that
end of iiovembor reports appeared somewhat more pessimistic than was justi-
fied by conditions during the first part of the month.
Spinner buying of raw cotton in i.ovember was limited, with interest
centering around near positions only. French imports show a heavy reduction
in now season imports of raw cotton as comnyared with previous years, as is
the case in all important European countries except Italy.
No significant changes wore reported from-the Italian cotton industry
for the month of iNovember; developments more or loss confirmTed previous
indications. The to::tile situation still loo"s more horpful than in any
of the other 7uropean countries, Jo;e statistics for the month of October
show a gradual increase in mill activity for both spinners and ..'cavrs,
a gradual increase of unfilled orders on hand in spinning mills, and a
gradual decrease of yarn stocks with cotton spinners. Now sales wore again
somewhat larger than current production, and although the tendencies in
this direction have not been pronounced recently, the balance was one that
would result in a further reduction of the already moderate stocks.
Trade comments on spinner buying of raw cotton during Nov..mbor indicate
a fair demand for c. i. .fand spot cotton during the first part of the month,
but somewhat slowor.spinners interest during the second half. It is further
reported that sales of yL.rns and goods have made further slight improvement
though at unsatisfactory margins. The now dravwback system for yarn and goods
makes export business easier, but of course world competition is more keen
Italian net imports of raw cotton during the early part of the current
season have been higher than last year, though below the previous three years.
According to a report of the American Consulate at Ghent for the month
of October and the first half of November, cotton trade conditions in the G(.lnt
district in general were not good, but there soomedi to be a fooling that the
situation would improve. Buying of American cotton is said to have continued
on a fairly large scale, taking the place of Iudiani or exotic cottons. Spin-
ners are complaining of small margins, especially those working for export.
7itll the exception of some exporters, weaving mills appear to be faring better
than spinners. Those supplying the local de.:and are reported as doing well,
and it is said that retailers, owing to depleted stocks, are being forced to
i!ew reports from Poland indicate very unsatisfactory conditions in the
cotton textile branch, and suggest the possibility of the dissolution of the
the spinner cartel. It is said that the Government, however, intends to
support the cartel by imposing a tariff on the raw cotton purchased by those
outside the cartel.. At the end of november the union of all Lodz industries
resolved to shut down all Lodz factories.for -a month from December 15 to
January 15 because of the c isis on all markets.
A report of November 26 indicates that. the export premiums on cotton
goods have been abolished. Various .wa-e. disputes and partial strikes were
reported from different districts.
The Polish Government has inaugurated a policy of strong subsidization
of the port of Gdynia, which is now: endeavoring to develop a regular cotton
importing section with consignment stocks to be carried in sufficient volume
to cover the needs of the Polish cotton industry. Up until now, Polish
spinners have used. the facilities of the port of Bremon in case of need'
for prompt cotton, but from now on it is planned to transfer much of the
business to the now Polish cotton port of Gdywia. It is doubtful, however,
whether credit facilities and trade experience will allow any great success,
especially in the beginning.
The index of spinning activity in Poland during the first week in July
was 104, first weooc in Sopt3mber 91, November 87, and in. the third week in
ovem.ber it vwas .79, thus showing a steady decline during the past few months.
Rus s ia
Production of the Russian cotton textile industry during October
was slightly -below the previous month, amounting to 198.2 million yards
compared with 217.6 million in September and 219.4 million during October
1930. The monthly plan was executed to only 62.8. per cent in the case
of finished fabrics and to 88.5 per cent in the case of yarn. Labor and
transportation difficulties of all kinds are reported to have been the
chief causes of the non-execution-of the program..
Figures on the production of the cotton textile industry during the
first ten days of November sho: further lagging behind as compared with
the plans, the execution for the ten days having been 22 per cent below the
plan in the case of finished fabrics.and 15 per cent in the case of yarn.
For the month as a whole the production of the finished fabric amounted to
171.7 million yards or 70 per cent of the plan.
A late report from Consul Donovan at Kobe states that the price of
American cotton in Japan continues to become cheaper relative to .its im-
portant competitor, Indian cotton. At Kobe on December 22, 1931 Indian
Conra, Fine, was selling at the same price as American Strict Middling 7/8
inch staple, American cotton prices having risen 2 per cent from iNovember 21
to December 22 while prices of Indian had increased by 20 zer cent. During
this period yarn spots increased 27 per cent and yarn futures 30 per cent
which should make spinning operations more profitable. The price increases
of both raw cotton and cotton yarn are.said to have been due largely to the
suspension of the gold standard by Japan. The exchange value of the yen
declined about 17 per cent from Wovember 21 to Pecember 22.
- 11 -
n; rin, iove ,bar there ;:.re 143,,000 bales of .crricr n cotton i:irorted
i:.t Jt .-.1 or only 4.7 per cent loss than in i oveib.jr 1950 w.vile imports...
of Indi-.n cotton d.urin, -ov.fcoor total. i: onl: 22,000 b:.-ls comiip-'.rcd with
193,000 b-.1js in ITov .-ber ,1 : or' a dcro soe of 88.8 peir odiit. lihild
tot..l shipiients of A.Lurican cotton to Japcax. iroi ..st 1 to December 21
this season a.ountod to 867,000 balos 'o an increase of 94.8 per cent over
the corresponding ; period in 1S3", shin:aonts of Indiai~ cotton to Japan
fro.. Seote.iber 1 to Dcembar 211 1931-.-,iouvntcd to only .146,000 b -los compared
wit': 537,000 b los in the s.v-. period in th o 193l0-31 so.son, a .d-cre-.se
'of 5S.'7 ir coeit. It is estiL..tcd b- J:'painose import rs thlit Jimerican
cotton afloJ.t and destined for J.-a_' now -aounts to 'wll over 400,000 b..los
.nd th-t tot-l imports of ar.crican cotton for the 1931-52 socson viiil be
at le-.st 50 per cont lr:cir '.th-n lhst scason:liich would om nt-n about
1,650, '00 tals. oTe coritihuci favorable price parity of Lmnrican wvit:'
Indian an~ mi he recognition dv.ring the 'fall months of the possibility of -
gold embargo voiro factors stimul.-.tin- the hea.v' purchases of ravr cotton.
Visible stocks of raw cotton in Japa.n at the cnd o:f iovomber 1.51
c.nov- ted to 155,000 b?.les co..'pared fith 126,000 b.-los one *:'-r Rrlior.
.ervers' dcim.-ads for :-.rn ars reported '.s poor di.rinG the 1.ttbr part
of Dcco-.ber -.nd i..ost of the .actiVity for both yarn and piece goods vrs duo
to sp:cul-.tive purch-.ss. Ya.rn production durin.. I'Tovoiibor 131 .o;ontod to
90.7 .-illion pounds comp-.rdcl -7ith 89.6 million pounds in October ind .s ws
8.3 ..:illion pounds or 10.1 per cent ,bovo Novi,, or 1930. iThis increase took
plico in spite o'f .n a.:roor.:ot r:ide in October to curt:.il sp;iUnin g production
'y .'.ddition-.l 5.8 pdr cent for the monthss of ITovoeroer ,nd Dece bor. 2ro-
d.ucui.on n ilovJ:-.ior -. s the l-rl,-;st for -.;y rnonth since .-; 1950. The
inc o-.sad production in ilovae o.'or wvas 'reported -s being i.r;ocly, to mlct the
req:.irer.iznts of those ;:..':i:l delivery on speculative p-urc:.ses. Although
ya.r stoci:s incro-.sed sa.ul'l:.-.t durin- the month of Ilovomber the increase
-:.- liss th;.u the incr;-.so in production. ;:ports of gsrn decreased duxri.i
i'Tovj.ib-r but *.'or. still l:.ror than in 1930.
Piece .eoods exports -;,rin; iKove;riber continued the djcline bojLm
in 70:.t-e..i'r. 2x.orts in iove.'.br ',mr.iontod to S5.3 million sq-u-re -r.rds,
17.3 ...:illion squ.r-re -?rdzs o 15.4 per cent belor October .:nd 50.7 million
sqo:.ro :-.rdls (34.-7 ~er c~_t) below ITovomber 1930. Those declines in
r-Lpo-ts rofloct the icre:.s.d co...ptitiion of British 1oc.ds and the Chinese
bo-cott of J.paneosc r.oods. Pioco Goo.'3s exports up to the litter -. .rt of
D3co!.: or hl.d failed to short any noticeable benefit by1 tLec drop in tio
v:.v.o o.. the J.--anese curi-o.c-.
Chinese cotton mills in China wore operating at a good rate and con-
su.mption of Acrican cotton is large due to the unusually high proportion of
A.erican being used, according to a cable from Agricultural Commissioner Dauson
at Shanghai on December 14. The Japanese mills in China, however, wore reported
as having curtailed production about ono-third due to the Chinese "boycott of
their products. These mills are not expected to close down although yarn stocks
are quite heavy. They are moving part of their production to Manchuria, Shan-
tung, anrd the South Sea Islands.
During No',mnbcr important business was reported as having tkecn place
in English piece goods, but about the middle of December the market wes dull and
there uns little inquiry for now business.
Production Acreago and Crop Conditions
On the basis of information now on hand it looks as if production in
the principal foreign producing countries for the 1931-32 season will be about
1 million bales less than in 1930-31. In the United States, however, the pro-
duction is almostt 3 million bailzs above 1930.
The Doccmbcr estimated of the domestic production placed the 1931 crop
at 16,D18,000 bales of 478 lbs. net, or 500 lbs. gross. This is practically
no cha-ngo from the :Novombcr forecast of 16,903,000 bales. As has boon previ-
ously -ointed out tih estimated crop this ;yo-r is the second largest ever pro-
duced in tic United States. The record crop of 1926 was 1,059,000 bales, or
6.3 cr cent, largr th th the present crop. The now crop, however, is 21.5
per cent (2,986,000 bales) larger than the 1930 crop ;nd is 1,350,000 bales,
or 11.5 per cent, above the 5 year (1925-29) average.
The estimated acreage harvested (-icked) was placed at 40,495,000
acres, which u7as 10.1 per cent less than in 1930, b'.t the indicated yield of
200.1 pounds per acre is 52.4 lbs. per acre or 35.5 per cant greater than in
1930 and is the largest since 1914 when the yicld was 209.2 lbs. per acre. The
average yield for the ten years 1920-1929 was 154.4 lbs. per acre. The acro-
age abandoned this yocwr was estimated at only 1.5 per cent whereas during the
1920-29 pcri:d 3.4 per cent of the area in cultivation on July 1 was not picked.
This, year, hoe-.ver, conditio-ns during the growing season were good, few fields
wore abandoned due to insufficient or excessive moisture and because of the
scarcity, of c-sh, the abundance of labor and the unusually favorable weather
during the harvesting period, very little cotton was loft in the fields.
On August 1, the very high condition of 74.9 per cent of normal was
reported, ucovil infestation was considor-.bly below normal and the crop was
forecast at 15,584,000 bales which was fully a million bales more than most
priv-te crn rep rtcrs were ostiuanting at that time. During August condi-
ti:.::s .:crc generally favorable except in the Delta sections of Arkansas and
iiississi-oi, abanc!-.mcnit was rc-).rted less than average and the forecast as
of Sc-ptCi-.bcr 1 .as 15,685,000 balcs. Septcmbcr proved exceptionally favor-
*Lble particularly in Arkansas and Hississippi. Hot, dry weather held weevil
- 16 -
damage in cihck and hastened mat. rity f the crop, consequently the forecast
of October 1 'P.s 16,234,000 bales. In Octobar weather r- s also much more
favorable than usual, high tcmpo.-raturcs favored the o-e.ninr of the balls,
there were few injuriLus rains, and picking .progressed with little interrup-
ti-)n -ith Cield loss held to a :.,ini.rP.ii.. The lovie.ber 1 I"orcast was 16,903,000
bales. h:I ..uth of ITov-.:.b r was about avrr^ge in its effect upon cotton pick-
ing and, Kh'c:Cfore, the D.cc.ivb*r 1 forecast vwas not much different than the
ITovciro c r forecast.
AlthoJ.. l t-he arou-t.t of co tton planted in India Iup to Dcceober 1 was
estimated b, t--he Iuiian C-ovrn.. r~: at only 2.9 per cent below plantings to
the se.'e c.a.c in 1930 the -,_ od.cLion on this acreae for 1931-32 is n-,ow fore-
cast at 18.2 ,-r ccn-,t or 73,0'C, ales belov 1930-31, according to a recent
cable fro,'i Calcutta. The. crop '' ich is cx octed from the acreage planted to
Dccr:.b-cr; 1 i, for,.cst at .-1283,0 'C bales of 478 lbs. com ar.s ,'ith a re-
vised cs;i,..a : -or 1330-31 of -.,191,000 bales, Y'hich.is 214,000 balos larger
than the --rvio'.s (J.n-:cvis-ed) :stimate. This is the smallest forecast at
this ti-.- of yccr since o193-21 and on Ihoe ,psis of ';ho acrea e planted to
Decc,:ijcr 1 iindica es a very s:.,all yield. Rcccipts at Bor.ibL--y sho'* thot the
movcr:ment of ..: cro to :mI.rl,:t is ru:ch lss than last season. :-o.n Au .;st 1
to Dec ...~r 17 rcc'iipts a7t 3o.nby T:5re 47 per cent belov the corrcs-)onjin-:
period in 13-.0, and for tlhe fo. .r '7cocks ended December 17 were 64.6 --r cent
bclo.i thz: sarnc -crioc in 1CO0. Th area plant ed in cotton up to Deccnibor 1,
was estimated at 22,358,000 acres com-a:.'cd with 23,014,COO acr-s planted to
Dec1inbor 1, 1930, and 23,536,000 acres to the sane date in 1929. This was
the s:ralllest a:.ioi.ut planted to that dr.to since the 1922-23 season.
The Russian Octobcr raw cotton procuring plan was executed to the
extent of b'.t 71 -'cr cent, and in the first twcnty days of ITov~ci:cr only
39.3 )cr cent of -"ho plan was orocur7d. Total 'roc':.rin s to ITov.mober 15
amounted to 52.9 *cr cent of he yc .rly plan, as compared with Gov-rnmcnt
expectations th-.t 72.5 -ocr cent of the total -lian would be proc-urcd by that
di.tc. Noveimbcr procurings cmnourntcd to only 47 per cent of thc plan whcrcas
l-st ycer iovo:.ibcr plans wore 78 per cent executed. For the scaton to Do-
ccmber 1, 58 -cr cent of the plan was procured co .;anred with 62 per cent
last year. The ctua.l ".J.-ou-t -rocured from the 1931-32 croep up to the first
of December, hol'cv:r, was reported. as being: cr.:out 22 -cr cent above procuring
d'iring the s~eac period last ycar. It is difficult to say ,whether this un-
sa.tisfactory prorTcss of cotton procurings is d .e to an overestir.ation of
the 191 cotton crop, or 'whcthcr other f-ctors arc responsible, 1..t it seems
quite possible th.t both causes -.'e having -n influcnec. The u.sal cor..la ints
of por or orniztion, lack of encr r o of he procur-i..g organizations, c':.c.,
are stressed b- the Soviet press, bat it is also stated that consid.rable
lots of cotton are being loft un ickcd because of the poor brga:.iza.tion of
:"ork in the fields. Demagc from late picking is also montioned.
- 1. -
As a result of the unsatisfactory developnm:nt of cotton procur-.
in.s, shi.uicnt of cotton fiber from thbe ,ins to the industri-l centers
":rs 1:clo:; -2l-.-ns in October, counting to 89 cpr cent of the plan com-
.red :rith 10-16 --er cent during the preceding month.
La.t st ro-or-ts front the Russian Drcss indic-to that this year's
cotton -.crz-.jo and '-i-lcs are probably materially lo;wr than previous
st-.t;or.i.ts from thoC sources have intimated. It is stated, for cxiaiple,
that yields ..rc grc-tly reduced in many regions vihcro "ork :.as not carried
on c. .r ctice.l1y cLurinng t:he s rinrg rnd su :.~rr, .nd, furthcrmorc, that loc-1
.-.rty o; "-..iz.ti-rns r)eorted hi_, :;r fi'urcs for th acrc.iEo pl-ated than
uvns acttu-7ll t.hc c-isc. T.- plan is no-. reported to have boon non-oxecuted
in t.-e crghan.na r?i-n by- 20 -)cr c.::t, although .o such nor-execution was
rc.ort:d by the iccl c-.u.thoritie.
These re--;rts t: :d to confirm the estimn-to m.adCe this Buroau
lDst m;.!.th :l'ic:: ,lpcod the 1931-32 cro' a-t 2,000,000 bo.ls or 29 per ccnt
abovo t'-h revised 1530-31 -.roduction of 1,550,000 b-lcs, although rcoorts
from Russir. -.e the Internti nil Institute of Agriculture at Rome stated
that the cro- '.as c-.)cctecl to be 70 to 80 ocor c:nt above 1950-31.
The Chin.se LHill O',nrcrs' Association has recently estimated the
1931-32 Chincse cotton crop at 1,800,000 bales of 478 lbs., a decrease
of about 357,000 bales or 23.7 per cent from their estimate of the 1930-
31 crop, according to a cable from Agricultural Commissioncr Davson, at
Shanrghai on- Doccmber 19, It is thougLt, houover, that the 1930-31
estimate of the Chinese :;ill Ouners' Association included a larger area
than the estiz.:,tc of previous years and that in order to m ak it con-
-oarable it should be reduced pbout 207,0CO bales. Previous reports
fror: IMr. Da'.'son stated that the 1931-32 crop was o:pectcd to be about
20 p cr cent bclow the 1930-31 oroducti-n. This placed the ostir.matc for
1931-32 at 1,800,000 bales on the basis of a 2,250,000 bnle crop in
1930-31 ;-':hich has b'ocn adapted by this Barcau. If the pCrccnta;.. do-
crease cs estimated by the Chinese Mill Orncrst Association vcre accepted
and applied to the 2,250,000 bales used for last season's crop the prcs-
ent cri couldd be -)laced .t about 1,650,000 bales. It is thought, hov-
cver, th -t least ..til further informa ion is available that the figure
1,800,000 should be .usUd.
Only: a small pro-orti)n of the decrease in this year s Chinese
crop reprsoents cotton which com--etcs directly with American. The cheap-
ness of Aecrican. cotton compared with Indian and Chinese and the increase
in total cotton consumpntion explains most of the incrcascd tkin.gs of
Amcrican cotton. Mills in China are reported as showing little interest
in native cotton.
The second official esti.-. te of the lE31-3~ Egyptian crop was 3.2 per
cent below the first, the estimate now being 1,286,C00 bal:s of 479 pounds net
which i3 a decrease of D2.6 per cent. front the 12)3-31 production, according to
reports front the International Institute of Agriculture. .The acreage wa3 19.2
per cent below Ir st season indicating a slightly smaller yield per acre for
the present crop in spite of the ft th thotthe acreage this season has a much
larger proportion of the higher yielding varieties, the acreage -in Sakellari-
dis 'the lowest yielding variety ef any importance grown in -ypit.) having been
reduced 43 per cent and all other varieties only 3 per cent. sakella-r-idis
production Is expected to be abo,.t 37 per, cent less than last season-and all
other varieties 18 plr" `ent less. The shortage of water in-the early- part of
the growing season is said to have been detrimental to the crop and aprprently
the shortage wea in those regions producing varieties other-than 'akellaridis.
In making comparisons it should be noted that yields were low last year also.
The report on innings shcwz a decrease of 1i per cent in-the amount of
all cotton ginned this season up to November l,:compared with-last season, a
36 per cent re auction in Sakell-ridis and a 12 per cent decrease-in all other
Since the last issue of worldl d Cotton Prospects a report has been re-
ceived giving an estimate of the "-azilian Government for ten.States in nor-
thern c-azil, which places the production in this region about 30 per cent
above O190-31. On the basis of the expected production in these ten States
which in the post few years hcve produced a little over 80 per cent of the
total -razilian crop, the total production is estimated at about.22 per cent
above last season, or about 7 p,,r count above 1929-30. It will be remembered
that droug;h', conditions reduced thL yield in 1930-31.
r"e xi o.
"" Although the acreage in I'exico was reduced i6.4 per cent this season
from 39,0,000 to 30,00OC acres) the estimated production is 18.5 pFr cent
above the revised production firurcs for 1930-31. T,'is is due of course tc
higher yields p'.:r acre which arc L, result of more favorable growing conditions
this .season than last, drought conditions having reduced yields considerably
in some sction-s last season. Tn- es.tinatcd production is 211,000 biles of
478 pounds nat, corLared with 17?,CCO bales in 1930-31 and 24n,000 bales in
_n thce Grzira province of the Suc.Ln the 1?-1-32 acr:ago has bo-n placed
Et 182,000 acres, which is practically the samo as the revised estimate for
1930-31 and also about the sam.; as in 192:-30. The 1931-32 acreage includes
a considerable now area in the north section of the Gezira and it is this new
area which accountss for the acr'-age being about equal to th.t of the past two
years, according to a r-eport from Cotton Specialist P. K. Iorris at Cairo,
Egypt. Except for this new area the acreage in tha Gozira would be consider-
ably less than the previous two years because of a change in the system of
crop rotation. t!ith a vi:w, to obtaining better control of the two diseases,
"leaf-curl," rnd "black-arm" the planters ar. now required to let a third of
their l:nd in the regular crop rotation system lay f-,llow for two years in-
stead of on- as formerly.
Cotton: Acreage and production in countries reporting for
1931-32, with comparisons
Item and country
^CRI .GE :
U: ited States ........:
India j .............:
Russia .............. :
Egypt .......... .....
Chosen (Korea) .......
Syria and Lebanon ....:
Bulgaria ............ .:
Italian Somaliland ...:
Eritrea .............. :
United States ........
India b/ ........... .:
E j.ypt ...............
Chosen ............... :
Italian Somaliland ...:
Italy ............. :
Compiled by the Division
of Statistical and Historical Research, partly from
information received through the Foreign Agricultural Service. Official sources
and International Institute of agriculture unless otherwise stated.
T/ Third estimate which includes only area planted up to Locueber 1.
b/ Estimate of production of All cotton planted up to December 1.
V/ Estimate of this Division.
d/ Based on official estimate of the Brazilian Government for Northern
Brazil (10 States) which during the past few years have produced a little
over 80 per cent of the total Brazilian crop.
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3 1262 08863 1345
1 S ar .. .. ... .
S Stoccs .n TIo e..nt . .
S Te':ile Situation a .
m. -- o
5 aontineatal iXtroe .
S -n ... ... .a a
r -- -r a a a .
; Produc ion, A c:ee, Crop Conditions .
nrp v- -
- cotton : Acro e and :rod.ucHion in countries rcoritin, for 16
I'. -52, with co:m-arisons
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