* '* I'
UNiITED STATES DEPARTI'.EIT OF AGRI'JLTUREi:
Bureau of Agricultural Econonics
VTashington

C-74 5ov0cnb.r 30, 1931
V70TELD COTTO.;: r'OSFECTS



1The October rd.L;nc; in cotton prices v.'.3- influ.:Inced by the advanco in

prices of stocks, bonds, grains, and a few other commodities, by the increased

textile activity in Great Britain which was stimulated since the abandonment of

the gold standard, by improvement in exports, by the movement to hold sane of the

supply off the market, and by the unusually large domestic sales of cotton cloth.

By the middle of November however, prices had lost about 40 per cent of the

October advance and were only about 1 cent per pound above the low point reached

on October 5.

The movement of prices in the past two months has resulted in the price of

Amorican cotton beco.ning still cheaper relativc to other growths. During the

first two wecks of 1iovember the price of American cotton at Liverpool compared

with three important typos of Indian cotton was as cheap as in 19~1-27, -.h:n a

decided shift to the consumption of Amcrican cotton took place. Similar improvo-

monts in the price relationship of Amorican and foreign cottons l.yore reported in

German, J pancse, and Chincso markets. Spot cotton in the domestic r tarkots has

shourn more strength in the past two months than in the futures markets and the

spread botwoen MLiddling 7/8 inch spots and the futures quotations are loss than

usual. This is due in part to a relative scarcity of low grades and short staples

and in part perhaps to the holding movement.

Developments in the cotton textile situation in the United States during

October cero on the wvholc somewhat favorable in spito of the fact that mill activ-

ity as ir:easurod by cotton consumption reoc.ined about the su.ne as in Septombor, as

sales of cotton cloth, reported to the Association of Cotton Textile 2.i-rchants

of NICw York, worc at the highest r-.to for any month since September 1929 (25

months previous). This resulted in the largest incre..so in unfilled orders, in





C-74 -2-
actual yardage as well as in percentage, for any month since comparable statistics

have been available. In Great Britain, mi.i.l activity in erly Novembor was

estimated at between 75 and 100 pcr cent of capacity compared with 55 per cent

in early October. The depreciation of the pound sterling enables the British

manufacturers to compi-te more successful, in world cotton textile markets.

On the Continent the cotton tex.tile situation has s.iown im-rovements in

Gennany "id Italy, where spinin;; and weavin m-.ill activity nas ,-i.ther maintained

the r..te of previous weeks or has incre-.sed. In Germany, loom activity is some

10 per cent above list aear. i. It.-ly, iill stocks have further decreased and

mill activity :.aCs S"I.o'wn so..e increase. 'Tie French industry is much depressed,..

mill activity bcin., roughly 20 to SO per cent below last ;-.er, mill stocks of

yarn and cloth 30 to 60O pr cent higher than last ,yar, anid unfilled orders low.

About tih, middlele of ITovu-imbr, however, the domestic ucIrket for cotton goods was

reported c.s broadcning altho u.._l exports continued low. Japai an-d China are both

feeling the effects of inci a3ed competition fromn Grcat Britain and Jrop. is being

seriously '-fofcted by the C.'in.se boycott, but the boycott has brought more

business to Chiinesc mille -,d tihe are n-ow very busy.

Th: in-dicr.tions -,-w ..re ti:-.t United States production will be about

2,S97,0.0 b-le:s li.rcr ii. 1S3i-32 tni-v last season roid tnat forei-g production

will be at least 500),000 b-.lc less. The 17i.?veber orecabt of LUn-itd States pro-.

duction added 519,000 bcles to th- prcviousf indicated supply which h itself was

the largest on record. Ti' p7c3::nt crop i'.- addition to boin- large is the best

in qualit- :f -.... recent crop. Up t- Octobcr 1 only 3.2 per cent of the cotton

ginned was under 7/8 inch in staple, whcre-.s l..st y-.v.r there '.-s 14.0 per cent

a.nd in 19.11, l.7 per cent. Thie Russian crop of 1920 is no-;w stimn.ted at

1,550,000 b.l- 1 of 478 pou:ids an this Bureau is now adopting a fi-gure of

2,000,000 b.ales for thi Russian crop of 1931. This figure is 200,000 bales lower

than the one recently published by this Bureau idn. is in marked contrast with the

reports from Raussia and the In:ternr.tional Institute of Agriculture that the 1931
Rissian cotton crop is from 70 to 80 per cent larger than the 1930 crop,








THE COTTON PROSPECT


CENTS
PER
POUND
20




15




10




5

BALES
MILLIONS

20

Ib

12


8

4

0 -


AUG OCT. DEC. FEB. APR JUNE


'23-24 '25-26 '27-28


CENTS
PER
POUND
20




15





10


BALES
TES EXPORTS ToMuNOS
1,600
9 1,400

30 1,200
1,000

800

600

400


0
FEB. APR. JUNE
CENTS
INDUSTRIAL PER
POUND
40.0
umption

32.5

25.0

17.5


'0.0
und


'29-30 '31-32
NEC-L22286 BLREAu Or AGRICULTURAL LC.ONOMhCS


AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN.


PER
CENT

140


AUG. OCT. DEC. FEB. APR. JUNE

UNITED STATES MILL CONSUMPTION
SI 1928-2s


AUG. OCT. DEC. FEB. APR. JUNE AUG. OCT. DEC

COTTON PRICE AND INDEX OF COTTON CONSUMPTION AND II
-, PRODUCTION IN U.S.,1919-1931


1919-20 '21-22
U.S.DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE






C-74


-3-
Prices


Spots
Prices of American I.:iddlin- 7/8 inch cotton in domestic mar'ots as well
as in foreign mn.rkots :ade substantial g:-ins from the first to the third
weeks in October :.nd on the 16th of i'overn-.,r :ere still more than 1 cent per
pound above the low for t-e season reached e '.rly in October. The aver.:e price
in the 10 designa-ted markets '..hich on Oct)bor 5 wa'.s 4.89 cents per rpo'.nd
(the low for the season) :-.dva:ced to 6.47 cents on October 23, but on Novenb3r
18 was 5.92 cents per pound.

At Liver)ool on October 2 American si.iiling spot cotton sold at 7.02
cents per pound o/. t::e basis of the cmrre.il r.te of sexchanc e and adv..ncedi to
8.12 cents on October 23, but since then 1 d declined .:nd on :Tove..icr 13 oas
7.95 cents per pound. The nove,'.en.t of pricus of other spot cotton in
Liverpool has been sonewh-.t in aczordi with che movement of prices of American
cotton, but the net effect oL' the situation h s been that An ric.:i cotton has
beco:io relatively cheaper whoen co,:i-ared with other cottons, particularly Indicn,
its most important cooipetitor. During Septr.iber three iriortant types of
Indian _1 cotton a.t Li{orpool averaged 81.6 per cent of .in:rican 1/, but in
October Indian aver:.-.: 86. per cent of Ar'irican. On Friday, Novembor 6, a
similar prico cor.iarison sh' .,od Indian cotton averaging 90.4 per cent of
American and on ITovo.u.i r 15 93.3 per cent. In October and ITovember, 1930
prices of Indian cotton avor:, -d 71.0 and 73.9 per cent respectively of the
prices of Armerican and in 1926 the October overage was 89.6 per cent. (Soe
Table 1.)
' Aver see of Friday quotat ion s for thrJe t-:s of I'nd'ian (fully good, broach;
fine, Oomra; and fully good scindc.nd two grades of Az:ericaniiddling and Low
:i ddlin .


Table 1.- Livjrpool Spot -rices of Indian cotton cxprjssod as a
percentage of ...icri. c .n, Liverpool, by months, 1926-27,
1930-51 and 1931--2 1/

month 12 -27 30-i31 1931-32
: :


: Per c 3:-rt


: P.;r cent


: Per cent


AO . . . .


Ilov.
Dec. . . .
Fob. . . :

S r. . . .
Jan. . .



Juno .
July . . :


35.6
36.2
89.6
88.8
;0.5
89.8
90.0

89.7
"19.9
90.9
90.2


61.2
66,9
71.0
73.9
71.9
72.2
75.2
74.6
74.6
74.9
78.5
80.5


82.1
81.8
06.6
91.0


0


lj -'vra o of FridlS- quot:ti Jns ffor tf'r-c t;-cs of d'i.i (fully good, bro...ch;
fine, Oorra; and fully good, scindo )divided by av.r..jo of sLLr.i d.-ys of A!mcrican
IiddlinLc, and Low i:iddling.
2/ ..verago for Friday, lJovcmib. r 6 and Frida-, ilovo::bor 13, 1531. Only Friday
quotations are available currently'.







0-74 -4-

This means that at Li:'e:.ool tI.e ,nJrice of A.:.erican is now cheaper relative
to Indian than in 1926-27 when foreign consumers took a considerably
larger proportion of American cotton than usual.

In Japan, prices of American spot cotton advanced 10 per cent from
Septem-ber 22 to October 22 while Indian cotton increased 16 per cent which
further improved the price parity of American cotton in that important
market.

In Bremen, the price of American relative to Indian about the middle
of november was still cheaper than in previous years, except 1926-27.

Futures

Futures prices of American cotton during the past two months have
shown slightly less strength than spot prices of Hiddling 7/8 inch cotton
in the central markets. This may be seen by the fact that for the week
ended September 12 the near (active futures) month of October cn the New
York exchange averaged 9.4 per cent (0.63 cents) above the average spot
price in the 10 mar._ets during that period, whereas during the week
of October 5 to 10, he futures -orice averaged 8.5 per cent or 0.48 cents
above, and for the week ended November 14, December delivery on the New
York exchange avera-;d only 6.1 per cent or 0.40 cents above Middling 7/8
inch in the designated southern markets. The extensive holding movement
over The South and the relative scarcity of low :rades and short staples
are apparently contributing to this situation. The grade and staple
report of the cotton ginned prior to October 1 s.-ows that only 3.2 per
cent of the cotton ginned was under 7/8 inch in staple, whereas last year
there was 14-..0 -er c.nt. The report shows that the grade of this year's
crop is running oven better than last year when the crop was very good.

Stocks c.nd ;orccmonts

World su-ply of American Cotton

The latest cs imato of the domestic crop for 1931 is 16.9 million
bales of 478 pounds net or 500 pounds jross which when added to the
world car:'y-over of about 8.8 million running bales gives an indicated
suoply for the 1931-32 season of 25.7 million bales compared with a little
less than 20.2 million bales for the 1930-31 season, 19.3 million bales i
the season before, and 23.3 million bales for the 1926-27 season, the
largest previous sunply cn record.

Exports of American cotton

During the first three months of the present season exports have
totaled 1,783,1'00 running bales compared with 2,273,000 bales last year
or a decrease of 22 per cent. The movement from. this country during
October, however, was slightly above October, 1930, being 1,014,000 running







C-74

bales co..i-ared with l,Ci.'-,,0'",C bales. Exorts to the Orient continue well
above last year, Janan having ta?n 54 per cent more cotton cluring tie
first three months this season than .r ing '.e Agu-st to October period
last year. The greatest pick-up in exports during October was in those
going to Great Britain. During August and Septer:C.er the amount of cotton
exported to Great Britain was -al.ost 81 per cent below last season, but
in October was only about 14 ?:er cent below October, 19-.0. G-2rmany-, Italy,
France, and other uro'ean co'n.tries shIowcd smaller improvements compared
with October, 1930.

Imports of foreign cotton

From August 1 to Cctober 31, 1931, imports of cotton totaled 15,298
bales of 500 pounds compared with 11,C02 bales during the A,.iust to October
period last year. The principal increase has been in Egyjptian cotton, the
total this season being 6,816 bales Compared with only 25 bales last season.
Imports from India are running below the early part of the 1930-31 season.

Stocks at consLuming establishr.cnts in the Tnited States

During the past twelvc months stoc'.s of all cotton held in consumLing
establishments have been below the corresponding -3riod of the previous year.
At th-e end of October the 1,11-,0C00 running bales hold by domestic mills was
219,00C bales, or 18 -oer cent, below October 31, 1931. The same situation
has been truck in regard to mill stocks of American cotton and at the close
of October they were 16 per cent below last year. Stocks of foreign cotton
have been below the prcviou.s year since December 1930, but hav'3 been declin-
ing rapidly since then and on October 31 this year were 42 per cent below
last October and the lowest for the month of October since 1926. Mill stocks
of Egyptian cotton at the end of October w.ro 55 per cent below last year
and vero the lowest for any month since Doccmb .r 1925.

Stocks in _'ulic stora;;e and at comnrcssc in the United States

Stocks of raw cotton in public storage and at coimiprssos in the United
States at the and of the month have been larger each month since July, 1929
than at the corresponding time the previous season. At the end of October
this year stocks at these -olaces were almost 2,0)0,000 bales or 26 per cent
larger than a year earlier. Stocks of American were slightly over 2,000,000
bales or 27 per cent larger while stocks of foreign were 60 per cent less.
Socks of Egyptian cotton were also about 60 per cent below a year ago.

Continental European s'3inner's ta!:ings

"1o the end of October continental spinner's takings of American cotton
for the season frorn Aui/,st 1 totaled 707,C03 bales compared with 882,-,00
bales to the same date last season, a decrLese of 20 per cent and was the
lowest for recent years. However, a substantial increase in buying activity
was reported for October.







0-74


World visible supply

On November 6 the world visible supply of Air.erican cotton which amount-
ed to 7,620,000 running bales was 10 per cent larger than a year earlier,
according to reports of the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. During the
past four weeks the visible supply increased 1,771,000 bales compared with an
increase of 1,523,000 bales last year.

The visible supply of foreign cotton on November 6 totaled 1,785,000
bales compared with 1,849,000 bales last year or a decrease of about 3 per
cent. Since Octobcr 9 there has boon a decrease of 14,000 bales, whoreas
last year during this period there was a 57,000 bale increase.

Exports of cotton front India anQ -.)t

From August 1 to :;ov:mbocr 5 total o:ports of Indian cotton amounted
to 477,000 running bales compared with 820,000 blues last season and 593,000
bales two seasons a-ro or a decrease of 42 and 20 p'or cent rospoctivoly,
according to reports from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. During
the four weo:ks ended ilovrmbcr 5, 116,000 bales woro exported which was 53
per cent below the sam pe riod in 1930 r.nd 22 per cent below the similar
period in 1929.

Exports from Alexandria for the season to Nov:mber 4 totaled 226,000
running baljs, an increase of 32 opr cont over the 171,000 balos exported
to lovembor 4 last sec.son and tv.s iprctically the sice as exported during
this period in 1929, accordingg to reports of the Chronicle. From October 7
to oovcrnber 4, four woks, exports from Alexandria amounted to 92,000 balos
and wore 5,000 bales below the corresponding period last ycar. Exports to
Groat Britain, the Continent and Indic, and to America (the three groups
reported by the Chronicle) all showed increases so f:.r this season over the
first three months of la-.t season.

Textile Situation

United Stats

I. the domestic cotton textile situation an oncoura.ging development
has tckon plcco in the salas of cotton cloth a:s reported to The Association
cf Cotton Teotile 7.larchan:ts of INDe York during October. The 333.7 million
yards sold in October, avcrag'd 83.4 million yr.rds per wook, the highest
vweckly r:-at si-nce Septomber 1929 :rd sales vwre 46.9 per cent abovo pro-
ducticn w-hich itself was the largest since April 1930. Shipments of cotton
cloth however, whilo almost as great as during the pcast foew months, woro
b2lci: both production and sales, resulting in slight increase in stocks
and a 51.7 p-r cent increase in ur.filled orders. The increase in orders


__ --


-6-






C-74


-ri


during October in actual :,.rd;:.{, as well as in porco.tc'.o was ts-e largest
recorded in any s ingle month since compoar,.blo statistics have, boon gathered.
This indicates that buyers generally felt that the low prices on cloth
warranted forward commitments.

Domestic cotton tc;:tile mill activity as m-easured by ccnsrumption
of raw cotton continued during October at a rate above last year, but
showed less than the usual sons'o.al adva.nce ovor.Soptember. October con-
sumption amounted to about 462,00C' running bales compared with 464,000 bales
in September and 443,000 bales in October 1930, according to reports of
the Bureau cf tho Census. Consumption in October has averaged about
50,000 bales above September during the past five yoers. For the three
months August to October this season consumption totaled about 1,352,000
bales, which is 162,000 bales, or 14 lper cent, above the corresponding period
last season.

Groat Britain

Since the abandonment of the gold standard cotton textile mill
activity in Groat Fritain has miado a substantial incrocso .which is perhaps
the most important recent development in foreign countries so far as the
Amorican cotton situation is concerned. In early iTcvci.bor, mill activity
bwas estimated at between 75 and 100 par cent of capacity compared with
55 per cent one month earlier. The depreciation of the pound sterling has
enabled British manufacturers to compete successfully with textile producers
of other countries. The increase in omployment as well as the tendency
for the public to tur:. from investments in currency and securities into real
values arc perhaps factors affecting the incre-ased demand by consu nmrs in
Great Britain. The improvement in the British situation is being reflected
in increased corports of Amorican ccttcn to Groat Britain. As has boon
pointed out above, the o.ports of cotton from the Unitod States to Groat
Britain in October were. only 14 ipr cent below October last yoer whereas
in August and September they wore almost 81 per cent below those two
months of 1930.

The October exports of piece goods frmn Greot Britain showed a
substantial increase over September but was below a year earlier. The
143.1 million square yards exTcrted in Octobr compared with 128.5 million
yards in Septolbor and 150.3 million yards in October 1930. The gain
in October w:as considerably .ore than the usual s:.sonal, but exports wore
still at a very low level.

The increased counpctiticn offered by British goods in the markets
of the world may affect iill activity in the Orient, but the net effect
of such com poittion wouldd bo likely to be favorable to American cotton since
Great Britain uses Am:-rican cotton mostly.


I -.......~ .. -....~







C-74


Continental ..hroe -/ij

Continental Europe ;o-orionced"imch indre:.sed activity in buying
and pricc-fixingi of r.xv cotton during October. .Si-multanecously, though
to .a loss extent, the cottonZ yrarn and cloth markets also exhibited signs
of revival in conjuncotionL jit.' th~ share. up':.'a.d .iovcu.ijnt of raw cotton
prices in October. Co.iin;g after months of virtual stag-.-.tion, thse.
developments are oncouragin., yet it is rocognizod that thiL &Goneral
d. ;rcssion persists. The sensitivenoss of the- cotton trade oand .lill
conditions to Octo'uor deovlo:pr)Ints shorvs howr quickly a revival could cor.n
in this industry once a b-ssis is laid in the forni of cnuine betterrn.nt in
th-- ,gonoral economic outlook.

Continental spirumr ."nd merch.anIt buc-'in of ra':; cotton in October
chiefly conc rned nar.-ir'r Dositions, but fori-v.rd :.-onths .wcre also traded
in fir volue.io. Gor.many a3-:L Ita.ly vere outst .ndin-gly active in the
rviv-.1 of buying, whiilc ev.'3stern ,u'ropo apcarod so:..wha.:.t backward in
r:l:.tion to the gonural 1c-.-ol of its requircnents for current reductionon.
S ocula-.tivo initiative in the -lyst;rn EuroTic.an countries, :.owVovor, is
usuv..ll>- loss u.i.r:ed than in other parts of :3.ropo; further..;oro, the cotton
in du-stry, in -ostoern luro-p.,ra countries at )rcsnt, is v-ndou.btcdly influenced,
psychologically, by the cor. .rativcly r.ccit tightcninr cf tho.business
Iz--rssion, wvhcra.s, other parts of the Continent, with a long period of
depression already behind, ar' totter prepared, psychologically, for revival.
In Italy the cotton indiusury- 2_. oars to hav.. worl1kd around to a position
of jettor balance.

32Sas booked by cotton spinning a, d vo':-vini :.ills in Contra-l Europe
and Italy vcre genzr..lly lar,_r in Octob-r than in So't, ,.,blr.. Currency
considerations, i.e., cxc. .n' restrictions and concern about the stability
of n-n_:.rous curr.ncios, l,.v. boIJn a b sibnific-'at olo~;!ct in this revival.
";it'. stockss of o s.ias s..-1 ..-d rics lo.:,, the traded h:..s rc;ardad risks
i;-:v-lvocd in a .ioder .tA refill-ant :1f stocks c-s co.: -ar tively snall, and
t'., bu,-'ing pOolicy of cloth :.LilS, processors, *.ad .th:e a lal and retA.il
tj:xtiler trade in recent -.:e.oks ay;;:ars definitely to have boon influenced
b:- these cn esidorations. Pr.ss reports from.i practically ..11 -countries
which :hav suspended the gold stand.-rd or have fo-und it necessa.ry for the
C-overn:.13nt to ass.ue control f the foroiCgi exch-ngc r..irlk.t indic .to soGeC
tendone.- on the p.rt of the -lublic toward a flight from curronc,: .and
securities into real valu.js. In Austria it is also reported that the currency
restrictions have stimulated spi- rnor buying interest for cotton through fear
of inability to obtain ocl.-.ango needed for covering ;zur-ront requ..irc!.O.nts.
On the other hand, currency restrictions have undoubtedly: ..iade for reduced
i.-r prt buying of so,:o cottca products ; for oxa.-.!lo, Austrian buying of
cotton fabrics from Czechoslovakia.
/ E-.sod on reort fron .'gricultural ttac:h' L. V. Steer at Berlin,
dat.ed.' ovo..aber 5, 1931 supple:lonted. by cable on iTovoembwr 16.









Cotton j:ill activity on th Continent during October is not o::poctcd to
show any gr at chanLz as co .zrc. .:itho SQ:toC..bor w'he f';..r..3 arc issued,
but a ..odera-to increase. ;.n ,.r.t io.:s soi;s likc: a result of thC
develo-pments previously 'iscri'bel. 2ven with improvement, however, the
operating level of the continen-tal cotton mill industry is still very low
in practically a.ll the ilnporttit ,rod'.clng countries.

Stocks of cotton yarn ad cotton goods remain small throughout Central
Euvrope and continued to decline in Italy, but in France stocks are much above
the level prevailing in previous years.

Gernany

German s-iiners and weaverss co.L:lained oenrrally duiri.n, September about
a l.ck of seasonal i.1-rovement in sales of yzrni and goods, but a certain
imnrovemnent in both sinner ajL aeav.3r business occurred during the month of
October .s a result of lar-er coverings of the vwholes-le and retail trade.
ThIis is attributedd to rising rav cotton markets and ,unesi.iess about the
monetary situation within the country.

Cotton mill activity for both sinners E~n7 weavers showed some slight
rise for September October as a result of these conditions. In Auu.st -
Seteiber loor, activity w.:.s so',e 10 per cent hih';r than dt.rin, the same
period in the past two years. Spinning mill activity, on the other hand, was
fro.. 3 to 13 per cent beloar t:he s.-ae tile last year e.nl as much as 20 per cent
louer than in 1927-211"c. It should be noted that cloth mill activity since
Junc h. s been above the levels of the last tw.o years, '.Jhere.s this is only
partly- true of spinning activity.

Foreign trade in cotton -iarn ac.i cotton fabrics in Ger.ian;y was at a low
point in September 1931; bot.- yarn an- cloth ii.iorts were :uch below any of
the previous four years. 'Th ther Lritlsh currency conditions will chi':Je
this situation to any significant degree cannot as yet be stated, but the
industry is already co,.j1pla.iiinj of British competition in the western sections
of the Reich. At the s.a.ie time, increasing difficulties in exporting to
2n2lE..ld and thz; Scandinavian countries are reportoi.

German not imports c.. r.vi cotton dur1in'; the mont'is of Auaust and
Seatenbcr 1951, as reported by the statistical office, were the lowest since
1924 -.Aid showed a doclinin5 tend2cncy from ,August to September, while the usual
seasoni.l mover.-int is u-'.-ard.

iHowever, Gormaan spiiiner buying, as reported by the L.r.3icn cotton
exchange, was of considerable vol-;no during the month of October, particul rly
for near and proimpt positions, but -lso into the first calanlar qmrtor of
1932. Price fixing and the i.nport business of the dealers also increased
consider r.bly.


C-74


-9-






C-74 --

An object of continuous complaint b; the industry has boon the
unsatisfactory spinner and wuav:r margins r.c.*ivod during the past year.
The -r.Jsont sp)innu.r's raargin is sli.ihtlr over 7 cents per pouyId of cotton
yarr, .Cgainst almost 10 ce nts last y'-ar, but less thar. 7 cents two :years
ago. The w~.eavor's margin is 21 cents per 8.75 yards of cloth P.s compared
vith 26 counts l -st year and 27 cents t,.-o y;ars .go.

Statistics on the t:otile retail trade for the month of Soptoenbar
show' a turnover of only :8 -er cent of Sotcinmb.r last -:u.r on the basis
of values, but xvhon allow'.nco is m.ade far tio c:,ano in prices, a turnover
of 99 lier cant .if that in So-'tjnber last eor.r is indicated.

C zochoslovakia

o --orts front Czsc'ioslov-.;:ia indic:>t; th:.t conditions rn.min very
vYns..tisfactory. Incrj sin. cx xort difficulties and sono tc:rtilu failures
cont'inuc to be rcaortjl. -as a r-s.s-:. of the unsatisf..ctor-- currncr- situation
in Austria and. miun.ary, it is al-lost impossible to obtain e::ort orders
from thesa: most ilTortant cu~sto..s:ru Lt t::o resent moment. Czucioslova'lian
ux) 'rts to Engla.nd and the Sc.ndin.:vian countries ar also ; ruatly h:1.m-crod
as a result of the devaluation of those curronci s and c p:rts to Italy
are discour.--;3d by tlh 15 per cent increase in import tarriff ir -osod recen ly
in that country.

Zx-,ort fiL-ures for the Iiont:. of A-Liust sho':.-d declining c:ports of both
fabrics and yarn. T.-i lovel .s blow any of Iho previous six months, but
the Septomber mover.-nt was lari r and in the case of fabrics vs larger than
any month since Lo:vaibcr 19"0. Exports of yarn ;ecro the larJost 'ith one
cxc.jition since Octobur 1930. Since the Czochoslov.kian textile industries
are so d.;_cndcnt upon exports nth signiicri:ce of the low rate. of exports in
rozont ..ont'is is ovidunt.

Spiruing mill activity h,..s recently bcon n.Larly as hi: h as last year,
but .much below a.ny of tIe previous tlhrc j'..-rs. The rate of activity during
the period from Libust 9 to Scpto:.ibor 5 x:-s about 71 pur cjnt compared L.iith
activity of froi.i 64 to 69 -pr cent sinc3o the middlJ of last ':y,

Austria

Thl sitaati:.. cf cotton tc::til rA-ills in -iustri:. is vDry uncertain.
Thi purchasing of r,:A cotton h!-s boon m-.do rth.r difficult through scvro
curr.nc:- restrictLons, but :-rob.bly s'.ch essentials as r:..: cotton will suf'or
loss fro.a the restrictions im'oscd thl.n joods of loss noc-ssitous ch-rcter.
On the. other ha.-d, the i.iport tion of fi.isheod coods 3s also .relctlyr h11-iprodi
by the same i2o IC'-t1ur1 :. f'.ct v.hicn benefits th.e l1mostic cotton industry to
the e: :tcut th:.t it rmo..ns .-ddition-.l :rotection for doicstic vexavers :.3'inst
imports, notably frcn Czech.;slovki .




im~orts not_







C-74


Ircireas.n~ sales of coteon yarn and cotton goods were reported in
Austria during the month of October, but these can be traced partly to fear
among business men that a nevw inflation might result from the present
difficult monetary situation in the country* From this it appears that
the revival in sales is based in part at least on a "flight into real values"
rather than on business prospects. NotwithstandingL the unfavorable recent
developments in -.ustria, cotton mill activity is believed to have shown same
further increase recently, but operating levels are still below the corres-
ponding period of recent years. The August spinning mill activity was
6 per c-nt above July and was the highest since last April.

Frczicc

October reports from the French cotton textile industry continued
rather pessimistic, but it apcpars that there was some improvement toward
,the end of the month, probably as a result of the stimulating influence
of the rise in raw cotton markets.

S3inn:e.r and w.a.ve.r business up to the 20th of October was much
complained cf in most sections of the country, with reports indicating
that Lritish competition was bobig felt, notably in the region of Lille
and with r:poect to fi'-e count yarn. Buying by Paris wholosalo merchants
at tie end of the month .a.3, quite co:.siderablo "-,d c large amount of
cotton frbr.cs mov.d in this direction. However, price cutting remained
severe. ThA. dist:-.-it rf Rouen reorted scmowhat bettor spinner business
throughout >..-o mcAth, -;:hil, Reoub;ix-T'ourcoirn. was 'agc-in the center of
vrwa.kness in the French situation.

'opclrts fro-rm '-'vrc. indicated reviving interest and moderate buying
activity in rc-./ cotta by, spinrnrs crcu:.L the middle of the month as a
result of the bullish nove'nent in A;Lkrica* Toward the end of the month,
spinners ard. merc~lrmsts as c oll, evinced a somovhat more conservative
attitude. That tnc gelnoral ,,..e of bu.-ing interest in Europe did not
extend to Frrnce tc the dogrco expected by the trado, is partly explained
by the reluctance of th. banks to extend such credit facilities as are
li:ely to be nooded in view of the withdrawal of British bank credit,
formerly the operating b-ais of a rubber of important mills in the north
of Fracco.

Mill activity in France is do-wn to roughly 20 to 30 per cent below
last yoar, w.'hen it was r.lrec.dy below the previous year. Mill stocks of
yarn are 30 tc 40 per cent l-rger than last yce.r or previous years. Mill
stocks of cloth aro oven twic- c.s high as two years ago or 60 per cent
higher th.n last year. Unfilled orders of the spinning mills aor 20 per
cent less than last ycrr or 40 per cent loss th.n two yaors ago. About
the middle of Iovember, however, the domestic market for cotton goods
dwas reported .s broc.doning, -.lthou[;h exports continued to doclineo.


-11-






C- 4 -ic-

Itpl:

The Italian cotton mill situation continues on about the levels
of last month and remains somewhat more encouraging than in any other
coL.ntr, of the C:'ntincnt. Cotton mill stocks have further decreased,
yarn m n ag:rcnts ha..v',. maintained the rise previously reported, cotton
spinaicr c :s:'.itr.',cts in raw cotton are blow last year and two years ago,
and spinning, as vcll as weaving mill activity, has shown an increase
on, or maintenance of, lcvls previously reported. It a-poars that orders,
stocks, and out-out are quite well balanced in the different lines of the
cotton industry and trade, although recently, as a result of the increased
sales and reduced stocks, production has forged somewhat ahead of new
orders. The discrepancy, however, is insiLnificant in view of the op osito
tci.dcncy prevailing. :.or soUe Limo past. This boT.tor balance in the cotton
industry of Italy places tho industry in that country in a position to
m~ic real -proercss as soon as guncral conditions in the coun':ry and in
foreign countries :will -orrit, provided the reorganization of the industrial
holdings of the Bnnca Commiurcial (among Which arc manr' textiles) does not
intcrf-rc.

'1he month of October bro ght fair buying of grey and colored fabrics
by the domestic mirkct, but the export market was quiet and sales difficult.
Italian cotton spinners exhibited a fair interest for spot and near c.i.f.
cotton during October, and price fixation attained considerable volume.

Poland

Rec nt reports on Poland indicate difficulties in the maintenance
of cart-.l disci-oline. It is stated that various firms, even adherents
to the cartel, have reduced prices, regardless of the stipulations of the
cartel administration. 'his has brought severe price-cutting on all sides
and dangoro'-.s disruption of the market. As a result, the s",inners cartel
has decided to reduce further the working time in cotton spinning mills,
and for the period llovember 30 to December 26 hours arj to be curtailed
from the present 40 -cr weck to 32 per vcck. The purpose is to reduce
stocks to an extent that will reduce pressure on prices. In order to
force all firms to adherc to the cartel and to prevent them from taking
any' separate action, cartel cotton mill inecrosts arc advocating a monopoly
in the importation of raw cotton for the cartel. Firms which do not
adhere to the cartel o-uld pay a certain prcr.miu- on the raw ratcrial. Tho
idea is supported by influential circles of the cotton industry and the
co ton textile trade, but the Government has not yet agreed.

Toward the end of October an important textile worker strkoe broke
out at Lodz. It involves 18,000 -.txtile workers, who oppose a further
reduction in their wagos so'.ught by the mills.

Russia

Production of the Ruscian cotton textile industry during the first
ninc i.ionths of 1931 is now rciorted to have amounted to 1,823.5 million






-74I -'-

yar-ds of finished fabrics, or 90. .or cent of the -.)lan for that period.
Output in he cor'roeson ir. nine mo s: of 1 '" x;:.s 1,7 .0 iil- o.n 3.'ds.

According to :-he pla:n 831.1 million ;ar&s of fabrics a'e to be
i.rod;ucei. d..ring the las. qa-urter of 1931. 7his would mean an increase of
1-.1 million .yards over t.e same quarter last year and of abo.;t 25 per cent
as o:n-.ared v ith the third quarter of t:.is year. T.iere is ground for doubt
as to .:heth r the planned increased will act ally be attained, as Russian
textile plants have : ha serious difficulties during recent months. Snortage
of qualified labor as well as the large number of new wor':..en constantly
having to be absorbed arc. anong the main problems. T-is a:jppears to be well
reflected in the efficiency fig-aurs iss-ed by Soviet authorities. Thus, for
exacrlc, -rodactivity of textile labor was 18.7 per cent below ':.he plan
in Au ust in the case of '.A spinning mills a:id 16.4 per cent in the case
of weaving -mills; the number of spindles idle bcca sc of machinery brcejrage
amounted to 10.9 p,&r c.:t of the total numnber of spindles at work in July
and rcuaineo on the same high level in August. Similar conditions were
reported for looms, .he cocresponding figures being (.1 per cent for July
and 3.1 p.r cent in AuLust.

Difficulties in adjusting spindlos to some varieties of cotton of
the 19S0 crop have apparently also boon experienced. However, hope is
expressed that a t-rn for the bettor will be oxperioncod duri.-, the fourth
quarter of the year, vwhn better quality cotton of the now crop will be
available. Labor difficulties arc also ecxpectcd to bocorm less acute as
the new '-or!aion taken on bj the mills during the third quarter become
bctt:r a3quiaintcd with heir jobs.

On the othcr hnd, the pla:-r.cd incrcasa of :production is said to
involve the ta.-ing on of ncw worlk..cn to the extent of about 40,000, and
ad.diiional weaving cquir:c"nt to the extent of 12 per cent. Those facts do
not oromisc vwll for the success of the cotton textile plan.

?RLiors hav,. bccn circulated in the foreign press that the Russians
will bu.i sigC;-ificant quantities of American cotton from Fr-deral arr.: Board
stoc.:s. I '_uch nlans really exist, it wo.Lld not mean that an actual iroort
deficit of raw cotton exists in Russia. It might :.iLan that the Russians
arc planriinl or voili lii:c to buy foreign cotton of medium or lowcr quality
on credit, and s.ll better quality Russian cotton instead, if possible,
on a cash basis.

Russian foreign Tradc statistics for the first five months of 1931
indicate that very little; cotton was imported into Russia during that
t i.c, tot..al imrorts having amounted to the equivalent of 34,000 bales
only of 478 ,om-nds compared with 112,0'0 bales during the corrcs-onding
months .of 1930.

|







C-74


Japj.n 1./

The tr.ed of rav' cot on uvwas u~p'.'2rd and oi spot y'Jrn downward betv.cOn
Se_,tc.ibcr 22 and Octobcr 22 v.'ith -l.ioric n spots increasini 10 per cent,
Indian Ooa.r .s incr)asinr; 16 por cent vhicch m-idc; the par it of Americ n Ind
Indi:t- still m.iore favorable for A.:oiric.i.. -'icricr4 s-ot price io:.ovcr,
.advancecd sixty points or c pe-.r crnt fro.. O0tobor 22 to ]iover.:bor 21 wLilc
India:- 03mr?.s incru.:.s.ud 7 :ur cent but the parity still ':.vorod .'.:ioricxn
cotton to the ortent th .t fine Coo.r .s ;oro bLinL sold at the si-3a price as
,:.i.rica.n strict Lovw liddilin, 7/g inch st.AplC. Du: to tihe )ricJ parity- bctvracn
Indian an'- .:-rican, imports of Iidi .n fro.n S.jptrnmbicr 1 to the middle of
ifov.sibtr vorr 70 jpr ~o-nt loss tl n for the sr-i p :riod 1..st y- -.r ::.il'
in.,orts of .mricaL cottor '.;r '.bou.t 60 per co.t bovy 1ist yrar. Y 'rn
-)ricts f-il;d to follovr r -.xJ otton due to Ki.nchuri_.n trTbil., thc subseqvmnt
Chinese boycott, and the fall of sterlin exchan&o, which resulted in an
unf-.vorable yarn d:a.3.2and. lThe bo -cott against Jznpnese Soois in China, one
of tie best -.iarets, .ld theo decline in the British pound ..'hich put english
pioco ,o.odis on a corJ!3ltitivc be.sis in the Indian, South 1frica, and Hear East
ma.rl:ets are the outstj.ndin,~ reconG developments in the Jap:.-anese textile
situation. .'.s result of th-se dcvelop:.. nts the Jaanose spinners have
arroct. to curtail production an additional 5.8 per cent dur-n,- the months of
ITovriabr ?.nd Dccem.bor.

The 89.3 million pounds of :-arn produced in So1:t.:Sbor vas almost 1.2
million "pounli (1 p,;r cont) ..boTo .'.augst, about 10.5 miil.ion 'pounds or 13
per cont ab;ovc 3:. t-.nmb-r 1933 aind w-as the larz-st production for an.y ::.nth
since :ay 1930 (si::teLon months reOvious)

In October yarn production was .-bou-t ir.aintainod amounting to 89.6
m..illion pounds, or 12 2or cent abovo October last ;'car.

Soefptibor cloth :producticn 1.'hich '.as about the -s ic as in
Aur ust was 16.8 million yards or 16 por cent above Se)pteimbr 19 0 and
amounted to 118.5 *million yr-.rds. October production .'as 2.4 million
yards above. Scptcimb.r dtspitu a drop of 10.6 million squ'ro .yards or
14.5 per cent in exports du.rin- the month. This indicates that the
::eavcrs ar: being seriously :.ffcctod from increased competition from
Groat Britain an. b;- the Chins: b:'ycott.


iJ Based primc.rily on reo rts fro-i Consul Donovan at 1:3obc


-14-







C-74


SE.':c:.s of raw cotton in Jaban at the end of October while below
a month earlier wrre .bo t 41,000 bales (30 _er c'nt) above the saxe
Stie las- yee'.r, totaling. 17?,: 0 bales co-.mared with 136,000 bales at the
end of Octoobr 1D30. Str'c::s of American were 100,000 bales coz. *ar)d with
74,0 O', br.les .t the end of October last year, or an increase of 26 -er
cent.

Ts--ite .-he curtail,:,-nt in output, the Japanese industry is still
exanding its equi- n.clt according to reports of the Japan Cotton SpLt...crs
Association. .;c:,ibcr conp'nies arc reported to have increased the number
of spindles in police by '"7,000 during the first half of 1931. In addition
ti-:rc ar. perhaps 300,000 jpia:dles now in the process of installation. No
doubt the reduction of night woer for women necessitates an increase in the
number of s jindles.

China V

lAoerican cotton continued in strong demand in China about the middle
of Iovc:.-.bcr, socur:s of row cotton wore not considered heavy, largo
quan itics of American cotton wore booked, and forward sales wore still
being made. A fair amount of Inidan cotton was being purchased but a
greater a,'.ount of Indian was expected to be bought in Docombor. The
Chinese cotton is comin- to market very slowly this fall and it is expcct-
cd that the amo.-nt of Chinese cotton available for the mills in Shanghai
will bc 0 penr cent less than last year, and prices of native cotton are
high in comparison .Jith foreign cotton of cqual quality.

The boycott on J.paneso goods has resulted in increased activities
in the Chinese cotton mills and they are now very busy. *ho Jap-icco
mills in China in early i!ovembor wi-x3 still continair--g full operations
but were debating whether to operate part time or to close down. If the
boycott continues it is believed -hat they must close down by the end of
Dcccnbcr. At least a part of the effect of this boycott would probably
be offset by increased operations in the Chinese mills.

The s'ocks of yarn in the hands of the Chinese spinners are low
while the Japancse stocks arc accumulating. Some low count yarns of the
Japanese ...ills have boon sold to Ianch-1ria. Yarn oricos in Shanhha.i, have
recently declined dic in part to the large amount of Japanese yarn being
stored there. The export business front China to sotthorn Asia has been
hard hit due to the cheaper British loods.



I/ Bas2d largely on cable fro:.. Agricultural Couin.issioncr Owon L. Dawson,
.t S_ anvhai, datnd 1ov3ome:r 13.







C-74


Production, Acreage, Crop Condition Reports

On the basis of available infcrmaiticn it now alppo-.rs that production
in thei major foreign producing countries in 1931-32 vill probably be at
last 500,0C00 bales loss than in 1930-31. In the United States, howevvor,
the 1931 crcp is expected to be about 2,971,000 bales above last year.

United States

The condition of the domestic crop on .eovcmber 1 indicated that
production this year ;ill amount to about 16,903,000 bales of 478 pounds
not or 500 pounds gress. This is an incroaso of 619,000 -bales or 3.8 por
cent over the October 1 forecast or 2,971,000 bales greater tJVr the crop
of 1930 and is the second largest crcp cvcr produced i.2 the United States.
The 1926 crop, which alone oxcoeded the present cno, was 17,977,000 beals.
The month of Octobor was exceptionally favorable for the harvesting cf
cotton. With the o::coption of fev localities, -.cath.-r conditions wacre
practically ideal for the picking, tih temperatures having boon above aver-
age and r.hifall light. The Kcvember forecast was larger than that of a
month earlier, in every Stato except arizora. In very State, except
Florida, Arizona, and California, the indicated yield for 1931 is substan-
tially abo:ve-that of 1930. As compared with last year the yield pir acre
in Arkansas has sho'.-n the greatest increase, being forecast at 246 pounds
per acro compared with 107 pounds in 1930, or an increase of 139 pounds
per acre cver last year and 77 pounds or 46 per cent above the 10-year
average yield.

Total ginnings for the season prior to Novomber 14, mznounted to
14,210,000 running bales compared with 11,963,000 balos in 1930 and nwro
more than 1,000,000 bales larg-r thla any previous year. In addition to
the large innings in torm.s of running bales, it is also significant that
the avera.g w.-eight of bals this season is hoeavicr than in any previous
ye.r of record.

Of the cotton ginned up to Octobor 1 this yacr only 3.2 per cent
was under 7/8 inch in staple ..:horoas last year 14.0 per cent was of this
short staplc. Of the nearly ginning w.:hich were 1 inch and longer in staple
there '.'as a 5 per cent larger proportion this year compared w..ith last. A
larger proportion of the ginnings to October 1 this yo.r ,:.re middling
and better in grace than in 1935Q a yoer which ::as itself very good in grado.
This high quality crop is largely a result of the very favorable grc:.irng
conditions which h :existed throughout the South.

China

The not result of charges in the condition of the Chinoso cotton
crop up to JloveTor 1 continues to -oint to a production -,::out 20 per cont
*Llow 1930, due largely to excessive rc.infall and floods in the Yangtzo
Valley, according to late reports from Agricultural Commissioncr Daw.son
at Shanghai. Estiratos for the Shanghai and iantungchow- cotton areas
placc the crop 40 per cent bclo-. last year and the cotton from those regions


-16-







C-74


is vory slow in corinc to markt. Theo NIinpo crop vihich is reported the
sa~.no as last year has been coni:n:- to :.:.rket quito frooly. The iIalc:o:
crop is eroct:d to be r.i..t -L'.: .r cent bolDv; that of 19-.0. IWhilo the
crop in Central C.inr. si'ff:.rol from too rmucc rain, in i.crth Chi.:L it is
reported 15 per cent above last year due to a sufficient amount of rainfall.
Estimates received place the Shonsi and Shansi crop 30 per cent above last
year.

India

Acreagr plaaitcd to Octobor 1, 1931 vas 4.2 per cent below acreage
planted to that d.at: last ycr.r. Vhilo crop c,:nditions generally seem about
the sane as last yc..r, giiminng rreorts from. Punjab indicate low~,r yields for
that province. During the past five yoars plantin&s to October 1 havo
avoragcd 83.9 per cent of the total acrocao and havo rar.nged botwvoon 80.2
and 88.9 per cent.

Bmt

In E-ypt the 1931-32 acreae v was roducod 19.2 per cent and the pro-
liminary estimate of th2 Egyptian Government places production at 20 per
cent bolowv last yo'r. Th production estimate of about 1,329,000 bales
of 478 pounds corn.res ;.i.thi l,1,000 balos last season and 1,768,000
bales in 1929-30. The cztimatc fcr this season is the lo;.wst since 1927-28.
Girmings to iNovomber 1 totaled 385,000 balos of 478 pounds compr.rod with
477,000 bales last year or a decrease of 16 per cent. Sakollari'dis was
37 per cent below l.ast y'er.

Brazil

The mor:bors of the Braziliiancotton trade have L.adj a rough ostimato
of the 1931-32 cotton crop in brazil and placed the p'rcuction at 600,000
bales or an increase of a-bout 22 per cent over the sr.-.ll crop of 1930-31
which was reduced by the drou.;ht. Should -+tL crop in Brazll turn out to
be this lar;o it will be slightly larger than the 1929-30 crop.

Chosen

A preliminary estimate of the 1931-32 crop in Chosen irdicatos a
production of 136,000 bales which, ccrrpros with 154,000 bales in 1930-31.
This is a decrease of 11.7 per cent whcroac the acreogo '".s ost inatod to
have boon only 0.4 per cent below last soon. 7.ca.thor conditions are
s.id to have reduced the yields.


-l~e3L~n


-17-







C- 74 -18-

Anax-l o-E,-ptir S..dandc

Tn.: 1C31 .crarce in tnc GOzir.a province of the Sucd.~ which in th,- past
five yc-,.r.s ans r.v..racd 52.7 per cent '- the t -t:-.l h.s boon placed rt 182,000
acres, a dcrc-r. f 21,0JJ acres s :'ir 10.7 p.-r c n:.t frn io30, ac'rc.in,, to
a c tblc just nc :iv.- d fr: C st. S) cir.1i t -. .. T.:'ris ,.t Cairo.. LT.c
to 3tl .crc.-,_c i. th, S-.C.1 in 930-31 '...s 337,000 n-.d the total prrdjtion
wr.s 106,000 b--.lcs of 478 p-j;_-ds. T.:iAs vra t.ic l'joc-st )?r? aution since 1925-
26 -lthoug tn :..cro .=. 'as ehe ..igcst on r-c .rd. The low ;icld i:: 1930-31
w.-'s due3 1ostl:' to t.ih sov.,rc dr.nage of .r. disc-so l..:i.n -..s lc- curl. T-e
present cr.- 0 r,- ;,rtcd to be pr:.rjc3i.i., s.tisfcct.'rily. :The imDroC'Yo.Jnt
rrnortol is said t: bc duc to a ch.n s in croJ rota-tion which h i3 te best
moth.id ;j flr '".c'isec. for coriu Ltiig with th ic?-i curl. Est,?.te s ?tlo: the
"'ilo r:-port a ,o.d cr-op -. in: ,.cr.-l tin crop c..ditions for thi- Sad. n are
much :;or iL',vjr. ble ti i la.-st ,'c,.r.

IC. 1 sia

L-.tcst i:.i ';,.:c. t.i .:o cc.rrob -r-nt.: reports t:i.t tt... R.isEian crop of 1930
'.v s betviwcn 1,500,6,. bales rc'. 1,600,06C 0 b-.ls X.1 :.; est that tic 1351 crop
is prob.bl- abuat L,.;''J,000 bL.1s. It will jo r.callc' t:in.t last fall estimates
of the 120 cro): r-:,l fr.)i. 1,700,0,'.3 ba..les .rly in tnc se.ss:n to 2,05'D,OjO
bales later in t.io s.'.sn. i t lu b,:.sis of t;o.su .sti:.:r.t.s a.nd ct.:?.r infor.aa-
Jion thi!: 3urc;-.u ado )tcd t: provisional l :fiu.c of 1,83C,..)0 b.l.s as probablyy
morc cn.rle:' correct n. t-.e larger esti'atc.'r. I:-. S.: .;.:'.cr this car the
Intor:-tio:.al Institu.tc ;f Aoricuil turo at R.t..ai: c .bl.ad t-.at it had a revised
estimate of 1,596,C30 b..les for tc 11,30 1:..si-~: cottn, crop. This estimate
seemed. uniduly 1o.v', ad. to c ..tr.ad-ict pr.:CUiCLL..t figu.rcs. However, otlcr
inf-on-.tion Dbtc.i:_cd recently is in: cmnforr.it;- -'i'. c:;n cstiJAf.tc that low.
:Morcover, t.-c ,p;.rt :c:t of C..:iCrcc s trtu tic t their r.reseo1tr.ti: -.t 3.01
rpc"orts t:e I:ltisl.t nuw ha.s a i;are cf 1,S50,0).J alos f)r t.;, 1l'-3J crop.
In addition to this, "Socialist A .ric-ut-ar,)' r 1.ove....br 7, 1931, a Russian
publicaticn, c:t-'ins a st::terment b4- I. Reinw.ld, Chaim.rca of the.o 'i"
cotton co m:l.ittco for tn.' U.S.S.R. t.at t 1. 1.,0 jro..actio.n 3f lint cotton amount-
ed to 3.3 miillioni quintl1s, t:J e, .uiv1.cnrt of 1,522,'2.t bal-s of -'7' p-:unds
not. Tnis clir,inatc-s t.ie qusti f th-c actual d 'iw-rd revision ,.f Rusiian-
prdauction estirnites for 1920. T~:' 3Buarc.a is t;cru. 're accepti, t_.c fi a.ro
of 1,550,0..0 brl.c, for the Rxsciian crop of 1930.

A tcsis for indepc::de:nt juim-.:nt on r.ic.siia fi.Lures is desirc.blc for
past cars .and is indispe.nble for dealin.l..,.ith pros.-et a:.- -r>-ucctivc
production. T&r-u lines of approcc.c are ,availaObl: procurement figurLs, con- i
sumotion cnd supply data, :.r a co.m.pr.ri:on l of acr -g, oi.l, oland pr.iction
inf~riiat1on.







-19-


C-74


Cotton nrocurinrs figures arj published at irregular intervals and
it is not certain just how they are compiled, but offhand it woi.ld scom
th.t they should be tairly accurate stat:-ments as to tLh amounts procured
over a given period. Procurings-to F-bruary -0, 1930, from the 1929 cotton
cro'o totaled 792,000 metric tons of seed cotton. This was equivalent to
1,132,0',0 bales of 478 pounds nct if convcrtcd on the basis of 31 pounds
of lint for each 100 pounds of so d cotton, or to 1,205,000 bales if con-
verted on the basis of 53 per c-'nt lint to seed cotton, (The International
Institute of Agriculture uses the latter conversion factor.) Production
in 1929 was csti.an.tcd at 1,310,000 bales of 478 pounds, 105,000 bales or
9 per cent larger than -procurings to February 20. This gave a reasonable
allowance for procurings after February 20 and for boon use. Procurings
from the 1930 crop amounted to 1,050,000 metric tons of sced cotton to
January 21, 1931, equivalent to 1,501,000 bales at 31 per cent lint or
to 1,598,000 bales at 33 per cent lint. By February 20, 1931, procurings
amounted to 1,072,000 metric tons, equivalent to, 1,533,000 bales at 31
per cent lint or 1,632,000 bales at 33 per cent lint to seed cotton. Rais-
ing this last figure by 9 per cent to an'roach the total crop as was
nocessnr.y in 1929-30 gives a figure of 1,780,000 bales for 1930-31. The
small .v,--.t n~'rocurod from January 21 to February 20 suggests, however,
that '-. -.:i .rom the 1930 crop after February 20, 1931 may have been
neglig.ulo. 3ut o crop of only 1,550,000 balos would leave nothing for
home use, nothing for subscqucnt procarc:i~cnt, and would indicate that the
lower conversion factor is necessary, unless the procurement figures were
too large.

It is very difficult to balance supplies against distribution in
Russia. The only stocks figurcs available are those reported by the
International Fedcration of %otton Spinners for cotton hold at mills.
Furthcrmorc, import and export statistics aru inadequate. Finally, the
completcness of reported consumption figures is not known, and they do not
check with supply or disappeariace figures. However, they check almost
exactly with 'he production of finished cotton cloth and can therefore
be t-,Ccn as reasonably accurate statcirnnts of the consumption of cotton
in mills for cloth production. Production of finished cotton cloth
amaounted to 3,027,30,O000, yards in 1"28-29, 2,930,300,000 in 1929-30, and
2,328,200,000 y-rds in 1930-31. Total cotton consumption as reported by
the International Federation of Cotton Spinners when converted to approxi-
mate 478 -"ound bales amounted to 1,703,000 bales in 1928-29, and 1,646,000
bales in 1929-30. According to the Federation's figures consumption in
1930-31 was equivalent to 1,380,000 bales of 478 pounds, but having no
report for the first half of 1930-31 the Foderation used figures for the
second hal- of the 1929-30 season. These were a-oparcntly too high as
cloth production indicated that consumption would have boon about 1,325,000
bales, or 321,000 loss than in 1929-30. Import and export statistics
from Russia are not yet available for 1930-31. However, exports for.the
qalcndar year 1930 amounted to 47,000 bales compared w-ith 11,000 in 1929
and imports of Russian cotton into Great Britain amounted to 118,000 bales
in the first half of 1931. It is probably safe to assume therefore, that
eroorts in 1930-31 wvre around 150,000 bales larger than in 1929-30. Exports







C-74 -20-

from the United States to -ussia were about 100,000 b.les less in 1930-31
than in 1929-30, r.id total imv.orts into Russia in the first three months
of 1931 '-~rre 30,.00 bal s conparcd wit-.h 65,000 bales in the comparable
months of 1930 and 313,000 balco in the yar ended S:ptrmber 20,1930. The
reduction in irmports therefore, may have bo.n as great as 150,000 bales.
On the other hand, stocks of cotton hold by Russian mills vcre estimated
by .he International Tcderation of C-cton Sinncrs to be larger o:- August
1, 1931 than a. yjar. earlier by an amount oquiivala.:t to about 40,000 bales
of 478 pounds cnt. Tnc increase in su ndrics cotton was considerably more
than this but there wore decro-ces in stocks of Alerican and Egyptian cottons.
As a shortage of cotton in the sum.ier of 1930 apecarcd to be the principal
factor causing a drastic reduction in cloth production at that time, total
stocks no doubt increased more than mill stocks did but no data are available
on total stocks. To balance avail-ble: fiu.rcs en su5fply and distribution
would .-cuiro a crop in 1930 only 20,000 bales larger than that of 1929,
which was 1,310,000 bales. As shown in the table below such balances never
hold closely, and fr that reason do not furnish a satisfactory method of
cs' ir.-ting the Russian crop. As a check en othcr estimates the balance is
vlu-b1lc, o:..;cver, as it shows that so far as can be determined at present,
other clcaenlts ef supply and distribution point to a smaller crop in 1930
than h.ad boen anticipated.

An analysis of acrcr.ge, jield, and production figures is valuable
:nt only as a chock on 1930 production, but, what is more important, to
obtain a b.sis f'.r esti.mating the 1931 crop. For the period 1909-1913
t'e area planted to cotton ave;:rged 1,569,000 acres and tho yield averaged
275.7 pounds per acre. In the period of decline followi.: the revolution
acreage and yid i p.'r acre both fell, the yield reaching the lowv point of
.9.7 pounds per acre in 1021 Pnd area the low point of 174,000 acres in
1922. Subscquc ..tly both yields and acreages wecre increased, but as the
acrarge has conti..ucd t- incrcesc it has bcc-.n necessary for it to cxpand
to unirrigated lands n)t f.;rm-rly devoted to cotton. It is to be cxoectod
that z'i-lds in th'cs: areas will be Ic. r tuan in tao old established cotton-
growing regions .-.heore l.ads are mostly irrigated. Ex.n..ining yields with
this in rind it is observed tht th. higi point of yields ca-.lo in 1927 at
281.5 pounds opr acre. In that year 1,851,090 acres were planted to cotton.
In 1928 the area amounted, to 2,238,000 acres, an increase of 437,000 over
192:' and chc yield .fell to 261.1 p:oun-'s -or acre. In 1939 the acreage was
f-rtier increased and the yield fell still morc,and on the basis of 1,550,000
be.lcs pncduced in 1930, the yi:.ld f.ll to 191.4 -ou:nds per acre :'.hen the
area w'as increase'. tc 3,870,0070 acres. AltIl: .> n wide variations in yields
are co,:;vic-n in cotton productic-n, the down.vard trend since 1928 is in keeping
with other information pointing to lcwer yields on the increased acroages.
This is brouhit -ut .iorc clearly if the increase in production (in pounds)
for onacl. yjar since 1928 is divided by the incronse in acreage for the samo
year. Froi.i these calculations it appears that thel pre-war (1909-1913)
averaCg :-icld rf 275 pounds per acre has been maintained on.around 2,100,000
acres but that on lands in excess of that amount the yield has boen around
100 pounds per acre. It so lhanpans that the maximum prc-revolution cotton
area wns practically 2,100,000 acres, but some of the reported yields in
that -;criod were as high as 354 pounds per acre. Also the acreage w-s tend-





AI






_7 -21-

ir.g to increase. It should not be ar.sumed therefore, that variations in
.ielis or further increases in hlh ieldi.g arcs c-n. iIot occ i.. Downwird.
revisions in the acreage figures wo'ld of course automatically i.-rea~e the
calculated fields :er acre.

irhile not overloo!:ing these objections to the method it is signi-
ficant that byr taking the yield at 276 otunds pef acre on 2,100,000 acres
aad at 100 poiunis per acre on ad.litional .emio'ints a fir-i-r of 1,:30,000 bales
for production in 1930 i's reached. T-is method applied to the 5,824,000
acres reported for 1931 gives the figure of 1,970,000 bales for the 1931
crop. If one were to attei-it a furi:her refinement on the basis of the recent
trend in ,-ields, the figure for IS31 mijIht fall to around 1,900,C'.:)0 bales
which h.'oulc still allow 'for an increase in the total crop for this year well
above he increases that have ben nmad in oncr recent years.

On the oth',r hand, it should be remembered that the 1931 crop is
forecast according to the internationall Institute of Agriculture at 80
per cent over the 1930 crop,' which on the basis of 1,950,000 bales for 1930
would be 2,7S0,0. 0 bales, and our Agricultural Attache at Berlin reports
the Russian procuring "plan" (which is presumably based on crop expectations)
Lo be 70 pcr cent over last year. Moreover, procurings for the season to
October 25 ncr, 7-4 per cent above t.iose for the sane period last year. An
increase of 70 per cent over 1930 would give a crop of 2,640,000 bales. In
view of thesc indications of a large increase it is probably advisable to
loan toward the upper range of our indications for the 1931 crop. This
gives the ,provisional figure cf 2,3000,000 bales, which seems ample in view
of tiis analysis, but is materially lower than the estimates cabled by the
Institute, or "plarirning" and procurean1.at figures. Also, it is blow the
2,200,000 bale estimate recently published bythis Bureau.







C-74 -

Thblo 2. -Russia: Cotton acrcage; yield per acre End production

: Calculated:Calculated yields and land
r: "ield yield o :in excess of 2,100,000
Year : Quantity: per :Production :acreage adid-ocres assuming that acre-
care :ed each cg e to produce average
year :yield uf 276 pounds per acre
: Ar. : PiFunds : .nles of : Pounds : Pounds p3r acre
S: 47 pounds
__ ______
1 -13:1,56,000: 7 27'.7 9C, 000

1921-22: 296,000: 69.7 : 43,000 :
1'? -23: 174,000: 132.0 55,000
123-24-: 527,000: 178.1 : 1i,000
1924-25:1,244,000: 174.1 : 53,000 :
1 25-2G :1,464,000 255.1 : 752,000
1926-27:1,631,000: 245.3 : 830,000 :
1927-28:1,851,000: 201.5 1,090,000 :
1 28-29:2,288,000: 2I1.1 : 1,250,000 : 175.0 : 102
192?-30:2,5,0,00: 241.3 : 1,310,000 : 109.5 : 106
1930-31:3,870,000: 191.4 : 1,550,000 : 86.9 : 92
131-3 :5,82 ,0CC: : : :
Compiled ry the Division of Stt-tistical and historical l posearch from reports
of the International Institute of Agriculture.


Ta.le 3. -n :Cloth production, cotton consumption, production,.
rill stocks, imports ind exports
:Consumotion:
Finished :reported by: :"'ill stocks: Imports : Exports
Year :cotton cloth:'"otton Fed-: Production: Aug. 1 : Oct. 1 to :3 months
: production :eration ad-: :all cotton : Sept. 50 :Jnn.-
: Au,. July: ousted : adjusted :__ : ar.
47,~ pound : 478 pound : 478 pound : 476 pound :478 pound
million n yds.: bals : bales : bales :bales bales

1923-24: 827.3 : r11,000 : 200,000 : 65,000 : 463,000 :
1924-2 1 00 :6 : 897,C000 : 450,0C0 : 140,000 : 494,000
12.-2: 2,11,.4 : /374,000 : 780,0C00 : 282,0CO 0 476,0CO :
l -27: 2, L2.4 : 1,406,000 : 830,C00 : 223,000 : 749,000
1I7-28 2,723.3 l,33-,0o : 1,090,000 : 508,000 : 669,000
1S E- 2 : 3,027.3 : 1,7C ,C.0 : 1,2LC',CCO : 240,000 : 567,000:
19-30: E,960.9 : 1,646,000 : 1,310,000 : 201,000 : 313,000 : 13,000
1.5C-31: 2, 28.2 .1/,30,00 : 1,L5C,0CO : 12, 000 : 56,000
131-c2: : : : 169,OCC

1/ Cloth production indicates cotton consur-ption accordin,- to this series
should be 1,200,C00 b.les in 19Q2-2, and 1,325,000 b'.lcs in 190C-31.






C-74


Table .- Russic.n cotton irmDorts

SU. ':. exports : -xcess of total im-
:, All cotton 1/ : to Pussia 2/ : ports over exports
: Oct. 1 Sopt. 1: Au-. 1 : fror U. S.
__July 31 : 3/
:478 pounds net : 4?7 pounds net : 4' pounds :.et

1923-24 : 462,500 : 1.,700 : 277,800
1924-2. : '3, 900 : 253,100 : 240,800
192I-26 : 75,700C 233,200 : 242,500
1923-27 : 749,4' : 501,100 : 4,30U
1927-28 : 66,400 : 44,300 : 245,100
1928-29 : 567,400 : 317,700 : 249,700
1922-30 : 312,500 : 128,700 : 183,800
1950-31 : : 2,000

1 Sta tistic 1 .3bstract '.c.S.i. 1 i,'- p. '.22: -nonoi-ic evioew of
:ho Soviet Union, 7i':bru~:.y 1, l'bi.
2/ Conpiled front Offici-.l ,'co-ds of t;he rurocu of For-ifn and
Domestic Cor i'rc,., except 19~0-21.
3/ A part of this is emir-icL n ,'otton obtained other countries,
;-s Ir '-t rritain.


2-3




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

CI 0I 111 IIHil 11 1i II11 III 1 II PtGS
-- 3 1262 08863 1485

1 2
1 St. L..r . . . . . .
2 Fi-:re The Cotton Prosct . . .. . Oposte 2
S 3 -.4
3 Prices . . * *. *
4 -
. Stoc.:s a o. --ov incnts . .- . . * *
5 To::tilc SitLa-..tlon . .. -- * *
8 -13
S Contincnti;.l :urope . * -... .1
S J) .a .14 -15

8 C ina . . . .
Prodlctin, h-crea ,, Crob- Condition Reco'rts . : 6. -21 ,.j


TABLES '. ..

Liverpool S-*ot pri.;es of Indiian cottor dxpressed .s a per-
centa c of h.nerican, Livorpool, by noriths, 19.23-37,
1930-.51 and 1931-'2 . . . .. * *
2 Russia: Cotton acrca e, yield peor acre i4d production. .
.3 .ssia: Cloth proiuctiot, cotton Cohsta)tion,' reductionn, .
nill stock's, imports and. sports . .* *
4 Russiani cotton ..mports . .. . .* *





',. * .- i


'U.S. DEPOSITORY
U.S, DEPOSITORY .,