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ULIT E ST.k\TS DE ART'~:"IT OF AjRI CULTURTF
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
0-70 .O0RLD COTTON PROSPECTS May 29, 1951
Cotton prices continued to decline during the month ended about Iay
20, and on two days the average price in the ten markets was below the low
point of last December. The decline during April took place in spite of
weather conditions unfavorable for the progress of the coming crop, increasing
domestic consumption and larger exports than a year earlier. The dominating
factors in the decline were the decrease in the sales of cotton textiles
both in this and other countries and the decline in the prices of stocks and
The apparent supply of American cotton remaining in the United States
decreased 34,000 bales more during April this year than in April 1930. The
world visible supply of all cotton on May 15, 1931 was 2.1 million bales or
33 per cent larger than a year earlier, mnerican was 59 per cent larger and
foreign cotton 5 per cent less. Stocks of cotton in consuming establishments
in the United States at the end of April, however, were the lowest for that
date since 1924 and stocks in all mills of the world at the end of January
were the lowest for that time of year since 1925.
Exports of domestic cotton in April were 42,000 bales more than in
April 1930 rnd for the season to the end of April were only 215,000 br.les,
or 3.5 per cent below last season. Exports to France and Japan for the
season were 15 and 9 per cent respectively above the 1929-30 season. Al-
though conditions in the cotton textile industry on-the Continent of Europe
continue depressed with some countries decreasing activity, spinners takings
of American cotton during the past two months have increased and for the
four weeks ended May 15 were estimated at about 24,000 more than during the
corrcsponding; period last ;c:ear. Cotton textile activity in the United
States showed an additional increase during April although sales of cotton
textiles ecl.ined. In Great Britain the situation has improved somewhat
recently .ith increased sales of textiles to India, China, Egypt, Africa,
and South America. In Japan the restrictions on yarn production have been
released to stop the imports of yarn from China, but the decline in the price
of raw cotton and the promise of more liberal supplies of yarn have forced
yarn prices down. The yarn market in Chin. was stronger in early April and
Japcan'se mills in China were increasing their spindles for higher count
yarns ';--ich is a factor favorable for American cotton.
weatherr conditions in this country so far this season have been none
too good for the development of the 1931 crop and sales of fertilizer in
the South have been about 28.6 per cent below last season and 26.8 per cent
below two yccrs ago. Reports from 2~ypt state that a shortage of water
may be a serious factor in the production of the 1931-32 crop in that country.
In Russia, however, plantings u- to ,lny 1 are reported to be greatly in
excess of those to a.ay 1 last year and early plantings are reported to be
making jood progress.
Cotton prices continued to decline during the month ended about May
20, and for two days broke below the low point of last December. The decline
in the sales of cotton textiles both here and abroad and the decline in
the stock market and other commodity markets were probably the most influential
factors in the decline.
Do:m-estic markets In the ten designated spot markets American middling
7/8 inch cotton declined 1.02 cents per pound from April 20 to May 20, the
quotation onf the later date being 8.62 cents. On M4ay 18 the average of the
ten markets went below the previous low of the season, declining to 8.49
cents. The previous low for the season made on December 15 was 8.58 cents
per pound. On May 19 the average of these markets dropped to 8.41 which was
the lowest since 1915. As may be seen in the accompanying Figure prices in
THE COTTON PROSPECT
AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY
AUG. OCT. DEC.
Tiwomun UNITED STATES h
550 -4 \ I,
AUG. OCT. DEC.
CENT COTTON PRII
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
DEC. FEB. APR JUNE
'23-24 '25-26 '27-28 '29-30 '31-32
NECrGZ2r" BUREAu OF AnGICULJ.DRAL ErNOMIS
PRICE:WEEKLY AVERAGE OF AMERICAN MIDDLING 7/ INCH IN 10 MARKETS
l -R -ft mmR
AMERICAN COTTON:APPARENT SUPPLY
IN UNITED STATES
FOREIGN COTTON: WORLD VISIBLE SUPPLY
FEB. APR. JUNE
FEB. APR. JUNE
FEB. APR. JUNE AUG. OCT. DEC
CE AND INDEX OF COTTON CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION IN U.S.,1919-1931
the ten markets for the week ended May 9 si.owcd a slight increase over the
average for the preceding week, but during t:'e following week made another
decline. The average price during April in tnese markets was 9.50 cents
per pound coi.m-ared with 10.15 cents in ::-rch and 15.40 in April 1930. Sales
in tehse markets, however, armoun.ted to 101,000 bal.es in April- this year
compared with 78,000 bales .in April last ;,ee.r, b't were 104,000 bales less
than in Ap.ril 1929.
S. T- vcrtger price received by producers on April 15 amounting to 9.3
cents per pound was 0.3 cents below i.,-rch 15 Ian-d compares with 14.7 cents
one yr-.r cr-rlir. This price was 0.7 cents per pound above the Janua.ry 15
Sfarm pric. .
LivrD:ool The average decliie in clevn different typos of cotton
in the Li-verool markt from Marhrcn 15 to April 17 _amounted to 0.44 cents
per poU)-d. Americ-n, middling and low middii -g declined 0.59 cents, 2 ptierl
Sakel 0.41 cents, Uppers, 0.45 cents. Pcr'i.vi aj Tang-uis declined 0.5' cents
per poDu.-d. ud.i.rinb this period, while Mitafifi advanced.0.51 cents. The
decline in cZat Indian r:_angd from 0. '9 to 0.:53 ce;-ts per pound.
From April 20 to MIay 20 the prices of futures contracts for A,-,:orican
cotton i-nad declines ranging from 1.13 cents to 1.37 cents per pound. The
three principal markets, iew York, iTew Orleans -and Liverpool all moved
fairly 'well together. In iT'w Yorl; the declines ranged from 1.18 cents to
1.36 ccnts per pound, at i:ew Orlcrns from 1.13 to 1.37 cents and at Liverpool
from 1.26 to 1.34 cents per pound. With tic exception of l.'ay contr-cts the
active futures months in each ,'c.rket all made about the same decline. '<-
contr-.cts, however, in iTew Yorkl declined 0.11 cents per pound less than any
of the 6ther active-months and in eTcw Orlanss 0.18 cents per pound less.
Stocks and movements
Apnp-re-nt sua;n ly, of American cotton in United Sta.tes
Thc ap,-.rcnt supply of domestic cotton rcmnining in the United States
on May 1 c.aounted to 8.6 million belcs compared with 6.2 million bales on
May 1 last yer and 4.6 million b-ales two years ago. Due 'to larger exports
during: April this year than during April a year ago, and the fact that
consum-ption wcs almost as great, tni apparent supply remaining decreased
888,000 bales during April comparing with a decrease of 854,000 during April
1930. Thi decrease in the apparent supply during April was less than the
decrease during irch due to the fact that exports were about 214,000 bales
smaller thn.ni in March.
worldd visible supply
The world visible supply: of all cotton on ['y 15, 1931 was 8.6 million
bales conprrcd with 6.5 million and 5.7 million on the correspond; n dates
in 1930 and 1929, according to the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. The
visible sup-ly of American cotton was 6.1 million bales on Iay 15 this yer,
3.8 million and 3.3 million bales the corresponding dates last year and the
year before. This means the total visible supply on this date was 33 per cent
above a yr.r earlier, American was 59 per cent greater, and foreign cotton'
was 5 per cent below. Port stocks of American cotton in Great Britain
end on the Continent were 22 per cent above last year and port stocks in
the United St.tes were 103 per cent above the corresponding Friday in
1930. Stocks of' jyptian cotton in Alexandria are still a little over
100,000 b.les above last year, but stocks of Indian cotton in Bombay were
practicc.lly 300,000 bales below last year.
Stoc:'s in conrsuminjL establishments, etc
T-:tal stocks of raw cotton in consuming establishments in the United
St-.tes on April 30, 1931 -.mounted to. 1,370,000 running bales or a. decrease
of 102,000 brles during April and compares with 1,662,000 brles a year
earlier. During .pril last year stocks in consuming establishments de-
creased 1'96,000. iTt since 1924 have stocks in consuming establishments
at the cndl of April been -s low as this' year.
Stocks' f foreign cott-n in consuming establishments decreased about
4,000 be.lcs during April and at the end of the month mounted to about
81,000 b:.lcs ccmparred with 107,000 bales twelve months earlier. Stocks
of foreign cotton have shown a steady decline since the end of Juno last
year. T,:iz of course is duc to the tariff on staple cotton.
Stocks in public storage and at comp)resses
Stocks -f all c-tton in public storage and at compresses in the
United Str.tcs c.t the end -f April t:-taled 6,034,000 running b-les compared
with 3,537,000 bales at the end _f April 1930. '-hose were the larcgst on
rcc-rd 1or this tiiu; ?f ycr, thd records being available back to the 1912-
13 seaso-n. Strcks in public storage and at compresses have been above
-any previous rccrrd for tnL co-rresponding datcs ever since the end of July
last ;'c.r. Stocks ,)i frr:;.i cotton at these places at the end of April
unolunted to .bout 41,000 b-los which is .about 2,000 b.les above a month
earlier. This increase during April was due to the fact that imports were
about 7,000 brles more thc.; in .'.'rch while consumption Was about the seme
as in .i-.rch.
Exports of domestic cotton
Duri;,g April domestic exports caniunted to about 392,000 b-les compared
with 605,000 brlus in ;.:>rch, 350,000 in April 1930, and 448,000 in April
1929. Exports for the ni;iu Tmonths ended April 30 amounted to 5,906,000
bales compared with 6,121,000 b-les at the same time last season. This is
a decrc.se for the season of about 215,000 bales or 3.5 per cent. Exports
to Japzan, f'.r the nine months totaled 1,024,000 bales or in increase of 9
per coit over the samue period last season. Exports to Frrnce for the season
have been 15 per cent above last season. Exports to other principal coun-
tries I,.ve been below last season.
Exports of cotton from India and Egypt
sportss of all cotton fr-n India from April 16 to Mny 14 amounted
to 238,000 brles compared with 263,000 b-les during the same period last
year. Total exports from Auust 1 to :I"y 13 amounted to 2,781,000 bales
compared *.'ith 2,763,000 bales to the same date last season or an increase
of about 1 per cent while ex..orts to Japan and Crina during this period
were about 15 per cent above last year and exports to Great Britain were
13 per cent above the 1929-30 season.
:.-ports of Egyptian cotton from Alexandria for the season to :.I:y 13
totald .aout 706,000 running bales compared with 783,000 to the san.e- date
last y:ar or a decrease of 9 per cenit, according to the Corunercial and
Financial ..ronicle. Exports to the Continent and India during this period
totaled 470,000 bales or an increr.se of 16 per cent over last season.
Continent.1 spinners takings of Mjiericln cotton
Tc:inls of American cotton b.: continental spinners for the four weeks
ended about :.:.c 15 have been estimated at about 250,000 bales compared with
275,000 bcles during the four weeks previous and 256,000 bales for the
corres:pondi:: weeks in 1930. T;is brings tne total tak.ings for the season
to ':y, 15 to 2,943,000 bales '..iich conmpares with 3,526,000 to this date last
season or a decrease of 16.5 per cent.
Mill stoc!: of cotton on Februar 1,l 1931
Total world mill stocks of all Kinds of cotton on February 1931
amounted to 4,586,000 running bales compared with 4,931,000 bales one year
earlier, or a decrease of 7 -or cent, and were 13 per cent below February
1, 1929, according to the International Federation of Mrster Cotton S:ilnners
and '.'ikLuf.cturers' Associations. Tieso we:r: tnt lowest stocks at mills at
this time of .ycer since 1925. i7iLi stocks of k.-.rican cotton on F br:-..ry
1, 1931 totaled 2,427,000 bls, or 11.5 per cent below a year earlier ,.i
18.0 opr cent below two years earlier. Stoc:s of American cotton at the end
of Januc.r.:' this year were also z.iallcr than at any year since 1925. Mill
stocks of Indian cotton on February 1 amr-ounted to 1,212,000 bales compared
with 1,173,000 bal-s on the sanc date last car or an increase of 3.3 per
cent, but 0.3 per cent below tih saj.e d-tm in 1929. Mill stocks of Zgyptian
and S.ndries WLre 9.8 per cont and 5.9 per cent respectively below those
at the cid of Jr-nuary 1930.
Stocks of American cotton on February 1, 1931 at mills in Great Britain,
Germar.y, itcl:- and Japan wre 15.6, 6.9, 20.5 and 16.5 per cent respectively
below ,a y:er earlier. The mills in the United States had 12,4 per cent
smaller stocks of Ancrican cotton tnan in 1930 and French mill stocks were
15.4 cr cent above the sasr-i d.te in 1930. All other countries except
Sweden reported stocks of Ami.ric.n the same as or smaller than on February
1, 1931 thao: on the sam-. date in 1930.
Iill stocks of Indian cotton wcre tie spJino or smaller on February
1, 1931 th-n twelve months cerlier in all countries except Great Britain,
France, S:c.in, Switzerland, Holland, Indin and China. In these countries
stocks wore larger tha n February 1, 1930. In all countries except I.-C.ia
mill stocks of Egyptian cotton at the ._,nd of January this year wore the
same as or smaller than at this time last eo.r. Stocks of Sundries cotton,
S nowevr, wecre the same as last y-ear or larger in fourteen of the twenty
E reporting countries.
Of t..i twc-ty;-fivc countries reporting stocks of raw cotton of one
kind or anot.hiLr, fourteen reported that 'total stocks of all cotton were
low.-r in l4 l than in 1930, four the same as in 1930, and seven reported
larger mill stocks.
Into si ;it, port receipts, mill tikrin's,_ etc of American cotton
I:- A.;ril 358,000 bales of .Americam- cotton moved into sight compared
with 437,000 in April 1930 and 555,000 in 1929, according to reports from
the ow OI']..lrns Cotton Excha-nge and was the smallest movement for April
since 1923. This brings the total into sight movement for the season to
the ?:id of April to 13,368,000 bales which is 7.2 per cent less than. te
the s~cnle dr.te last season.
'!ill taolings in the United States and Canada in Auril amounted to
489,000 b._1rs compared with 369,000 in Ma.rch and 584,000 in April 1930.
Tntal t.-si::s for the nine months were 4,817,000 b-les, 1,423,000 ba.los or
22.9 per cnt below the same, time year ago. Receipts at ports in April
wer about 25,000 bales less than in April 1930, but to the end of April
the port r-cei.,ts for the season were 442,000 bales more than last season.
Overlnd movement both in March and April was above the movement in the
sj.ne mo;:t's in 1930, but to the end of April the total cotton which had moved
in this i.-".ner during the season amounted to 805,000 bales compared with
1,082,000 .:-ls lost season, or a decrease of 25.6 per cent.
The decline in cotton prices, the stock ,irket and prices of other
speculativc- commodities have no doubt been f._.ctors influencing the reduced
sal,1s of c-'tton textiles. Domestic consumption of raw cotton, however,
continues to increase, consumption during April showing an increase of 18,000
bales over ;.,rch. This increase of April over ,Mrxch compares with the 10-
year r.vy.r.;c dccrease of, about 31,000 bales. Total domestic consumption in
April mountedd to 509,000 -unaing bales and w.-.s only 33,000 bales below
Aoril 19:30, recording to the Burcau of the Census. Total consumption for the
3e:.son to the en.d of April mounted to 3.9 million bales, 0.9 million bloes
or 19.6 per cent below the samc npriod last season and 1.4 million or 26.5
per cent brlow the first nine months of the 1928-29 season.
Domestic trade in standard cotton cloth wa.s less favorable in April
than in- t"he first three months of 1931. Sales and shiipents amounted to
61.0 .and 96.3 per cent respectively of production, which was slightly above
March prnc:u.ction. In M- rch the ratio of sales and shipments to production
was 108.7 :-.;d 116.8 per cent respectively. These ratios during February
were even m.:rc; frvorablc thr.i in Mr.rch. The decrease in sales 2and snipmcnts
resulted inu .n increase of 3.1 per cent in stocks and a decrease of 21.3
per cent in unfilled orders, while weekly sales during April averaged 41.7
per cent below M.rch, 38.3 per cent below April, 1930 and wore the lowest
since June slast year. It should be observed that sales fluctuate widely
from month to month and that sies in April, during the past three years,
have avcr-.cd 14.6 per cent or 10.8 million yards per week below those in
S March. Ttal shipments. :-ni s-lcs fo)r the first four *.io:-ths of the yoar are
both still about 9 per cent in excess of production mid unfilled -rdcrs
are still lacrgr than the stocks on hand.
Reoorts from Great Britain during the past month showed that the dciir.nds
from Indi- .-rd China continue poor n;d the boycott on British gods in India
I is still eficctive. In spite of the somewhat better trade in the hnme
market .-). s-ome of tile smaller foreign in-.rkts s-les of both yarn .-.nd cloth
have f.llcn below production. Reports received on ?'.-a 15 ncd iMay 22 from
Great Britain indicr.te better demand for raw' cotton ad additional i .provc-
ment in -)ilcstic demand for cotton cloth with more s.-lcs for India, Chin".,
gypt, _-Airicr. n-ld South America.
x.xorts of piece goods during April which counted to 135.2 million
yards were 1.2 million yards below March and 81.8 million yards or 37.7 per
| cent below'. April, 1930. During the past ten yo-rs, nowcvor, exports in April
have -.vcr-.a&, about 45.7 million yards below March. Tctal exports of piece
S goods ftr tin.- ine months ending with April amounted to 1,295.0 million
square yards compared with 2,493.2 million square yr.rds during the correspond-
ing period last season or a decrease of 48.1 per cent. Exports of cotton
yarn in April Lnounting to 10.8 million pounds was the same as in :.'.rc-h nnd
0.7 million pounds or 6.1 per cunt below April 1930. T-tl yarn oxports
for the first nine months this season amounted to 95.8 million pounds com.'nred
with 115.6 million during the snme period last season '.ihich was a decrease of
17.1 per co:t.
Continental Europe ij
T.he decline in the price of raw cotton ?ud the action of the stock
market h-.ve adversely affected the tr-de sentiment in b-th the cotton 1and
cotton textile markets of Continental Europe. Spinners .nd weavers through-
out the industry are complaining about sales. Customers are very cautious.
Consequ-etly.- textile activity h.s shown little or no pick-up on the Continent
in gener-.l rnd in s;me sections activity has been reduced somewhat. Due to
the lo:niss of cotton prices, however, there has been quite an important amount
of inter..iittent buying and price fixing by spinners. Spinners takings for the
four 7eck's ended April 17 totaled 275,000 b.~ls compared with 210,0.30 b-lcs
for a like ocriod ended Mr.rch 20. Takings for the month ended ;My 13 is
estimated at about 280,000 bales which is 2,1,000 b.les -bove the corresponding
period last season.
S..les of :yarn and cloth in Germanly during April made a slight seasonal
improve,.:cnt but was less th-n was expected. The production cartel ".wich
first '-.ent into effect on March 16 and was scheduled to run for six vw'c.s nas
been extended for an additional six weeks ,which means that it is to reoa.in
in effect until the end of the first week in June unless it is again prolonged.
The c-rtel cnntrollcd in the beginning only about 50 per cent of the spindles,
but the plans now call for a stronger organization. Purchases of raw cotton
at Bromon h...ve been moderate during April with an occasional import-nt cj..:zunt
of price fixing.
I/ Based on cable d-ted ;'v< 11, 1931 front Attache L.V.Stecre at Berlin.
The most recent index of cotton spinning and weaving mill activity
in Germany was for the month of January, which is reported by the Dermnan
Institute for -conomic Research at Berlin. The index of spinning activity
for January wcs 64 compared with .96 in December and 108 in January 1930.
The inde:: in Jenuary was the lowest since July 1926. Cotton weaving mill
activity on the other hand, was higher during January than December,
activity counting to 65.6 per cent of a nine hour single shift capacity
compared with 57.6 per cent in December and 71.6 per cent in January 1930.
Spinning activity from August through January averaged 90 per cent compared
with the average during the corresponding period last season of 103 per
cent. Similar comparison in the weaving industry shows an average of 64.5
per cent of capacity this season compared with 71.3 per cent in 1929-30.
A simple average of the two sets of indices which we have called cotton
mill activity shows that the low point was reached in June 1930, the index
being 74.5 per cent. During the first four months of the present season
beginning Autust, the index of mill activity ranged between 77 and 79 per
cent, in Decei.-ber it dropped to 76.8 per cent and in January to 74.8
per cent compared with the index of 89.8 in January 1930. .The aver-ge for
the six;: months ended January 1931 was 77.2 compared with an average of 87.0
in the corresponding.period last season.
I~rmjorts of cotton yarn and woven materials into Germany during; 'arch
amounted to 4.9 million pounds compared with 4.7 million in February and
7.8 million in 'arch 1930. Total imports for the eight months ended iMarch
1931 were 42.9 million pounds, 14.3 million pounds or 26.8 per cent below
the corresponding period last season. Imports of cotton yarn into Germany
for the season to the end of March were 27 per cent below the 1929-30 season
while imports of woven material were 7.2 per cent below.
Czechoslova':ia and Austria
T.ie cotton textile situation in these two countries during April was
reported to have been unsatisfactory. No definite information as to the
situation: existing since February has been received. Exports of unbleached
cotton yarn from Czechoslovakia in February, which totaled 3.0 million pounds
were 33,000 pounds above January but 1.2 million pounds below February 1930.
Total exports for August through February amounting to 27.3 million pounds
were only 2.6 million pounds or 8.8 per cent below the same period last
In Austria spinning mill activity during last December amounted to 77
per cent of full capacity compared with a low of.68 per cent in July and
was only 1 per cent below activity during~ December 1929. The average
activity for the first five months of the season amounted to 80 por cent of
capacity,compared with activity of only 76 per cent during the five months
August-Decer:mber 1929. Exports of cotton yarn to Germany during this period,
however, amounted to only 173,000 pounds compared with 300,000 pounds during
the samnc priod the previous.season or a decrease of 42.3 per cent.
In France the cotton textile industry was reported quiet during April.
The northern irill centers reported few orders due to price cutting in other
sections. There was, however, a considerable amount of purchasing of raw
cotton and c. o :r increased einount of price fixing. The index of cotton
mill activityy in France last December .t 80 was 8 per cent above last
July, bat wN:s 4 per cent lower than in December 1929. The average indcx
duri:1; the first five months of the season was 79 compared with an average
of 82 for five months August through December., 1929.
The' situation in Italy continued depressed during April -ith stocks
of yarn and cloth still above last year. In spite of the much reduced
spia.iin. a:.d weaving mill activity, new s..ils and unfilled orders on the
other hand, .re below last year.
Spinning r.ill activity during February which mounted to 69.1 -per cent
of capacity was 4.0 per cent above the low of last July but 22.2 per cent
below Fjbruary 1950 and was also sli htly below th.: two preceding .-lonths.
Weaving mill activity in Italy .made its .lo:7 in Au,ust, activity nountinl
to 64.3 per cent during that month and stc-dily increased until in Dcc,.-ibcr
activity war 71.5 per cent of capacity. In February activity: had declined
to 67.2 per cent. The average spinning mill activity for the seven months
ended J2cbnr.ry wrs 69.2 per cent coimparcd with en avcrbge of 94.1 per cent
last season. leaving mill activity for the same period this season averaged
67.3 per cent compared with 89.4 per ce:-t in the 1929-30 season. Activity
both in the spinning and weaving- mills is now reported to be downn to the
autumn level which means 1 or 2 per cent below tne activity in Fcbrua-ry.
For some time attempts ;iave boen .-.ade to reorganize the spinners cartel
in Polcad. In April the rcornnizrtion took place an-d now 89 per cent of
all spin:nrs .-re included in the cartel and it is expected that the Govern-
ment will force others in. Activity in Aqril was 118 per cent of a single
shift capacity. For two or thre-i-. o:otns a high rate of activity has bucn
maintained in the large mills in ll ce of snall sales a-nd incre-.sinj stocks
in -1n .tteonpt to force outsiders into the cartel, l,,ith- such a larec aor-
ccntage of the spindles now in tae cartel it se-cis likely that mill '-ctivity
will be curtrilcd.
T he parity between Aiorican and other cotton in Jr.pan continues f.vor-
able for the consumption of American cotton according to a radio resc.je
from Consul Gencral Dickover at Kobe on :4Ma 1. Demand for medium count ,'.rns
was fair duriu, April, but not as good as in W-rch. Imports of Am.rican
cotton diirinu- i'.rch amounted to about 150,000 b.lcs, but due to the decline
in the prices of spot cotton it appears tha-t s-l,-s to mills both in "-rch
and 9April ha.ve been below imports. Imports of Indian cotton during April
totaled 196,000 b-lcs. The totrl visible stocks of all cotton in J-.p.n c.t
the aed of r:.rch which r.iounted to about 445,000 b..lcs was sm.-ller tnc?... on the
same d?.tL last yer and the year before wnen stocks were more than 454,000
and 503,000 b-les respectively.
During INarch there was a distinct revival of demand for yarn by the
Japanese weavers which together with the artificial scarcity produced by curtail-
ed output caused .yarn prices to advance to relatively high and abnormal levels.
This resulted in a considerable amount of imports of Chinese yarn in J.aan.
This was no doubt a factor in the reduction of the nominal rate of curtailment
from 34 per ccnt to 30.8 per cent which became effective April 1. The larcrch
revival was followed by a less active demand for yarn in April which together I
with the decline in cotton prices, increased output and the prospects for an .
additional increase of 5.8 per cent effective July 1 caused yarn prices to decline
Yarn production in March amounted to 79. 1 million pounds or 0.1 million pounds
below February end 9.8 million pounds below March, 1930. In spite of the in-
creased sales of yarn during March visible stocks at the end of March showed a
slight increase over the previous month. Cloth exports during March amounting
to 128.5 million square yards was slightly above February.
Business during the latter half of 1930 was unfavorable in most of the
sixty conmplies of the Japan Cotton Spinners Association. According to a recent |
report by this Association thirty-eight companies reported a loss, forty-six no
dividend, fourteen reported 7.6 per cent or 1.4 per cent lower than they were
for the first half of 1930. Thez were, however, 200,000 new spindles purchased
by these mills, during the first quarter of 1931.
A recent radio message (May 26) from Consul Donovan at Kobe reports that
the relation of prices of nAerican to other cottons continues to favor the
consumption of Airerican, but that the demand for medium and high count yarns was
not especially active in April. Yarn futures prices declined during the month
and prices of spot yarn made an even greater decline partly as a result of the
increased production. The production of yarn in April amounted to 82.4 million
pounds, ah increase of 4.2 per cent over March, but was 10.3 per cent below
April, 1930. The visible stocks of yarn at the end of April amounted to -1.3
million pounds compared with 3.1 million at the end of March and 17.6 million
pounds at the end of April, 1930. Since the end of April both the yarn and
piece goods markets have shown some improvement. Imports of Chinese yarns dur-.,
ing April were smaller than in March and the margins existing on or about Mry
26 made purchases of Chinese yar unprofitable. Exports of cloth during April
amounting to only 98.9 million square yards were 29.6 million square yards or
23.0 per cent below March and compares with 130.9 million square yards in April
last year. This decrease compared with March was due to high prices asked by
Japanese weavers following the sharp increase in domestic demand during March
Imports of American cotton in April amounted to 164,000 bales or an in-
crease of about 14,000 bales over March while imports of Indian cotton into
Japan during April amnounting to 189,000 bales were slightly less than during
March. Visible stocks of all cotton at the end of April totaled 549,000 bales
or about 10-1,000 beles above a month earlier. While these large stocks are re-
ported to be in fairly strong hands which has helped to maintain prices the
trend of prices was downward during the last part pf April and the first
three weaks of M.y.
The Jao.ne se mills in China are increasing their spindles for higher count
yarns in view of the firm demand and larger outlet for these yarns during the
past two months. This of course, is favorable for American cotton. Tha yern
market in Chine. was reported on May 12 by Agricultural Coimmissioner Dawson at
Shanghai to be uneasy due to political uncertainties, but was stronger than in
previous weeks. Operations in the cotton mills of China continue active with
future operations depending to a considerable extent upon the yarn market.
Froduction, acreage and crop condition reports
T.hi revised estimate of the 1930 crop Tne Crop Reporting Board of
this 3ureau1. rclec-scd on May 20 trin revised estimated of the acreage, yield,
and proJuction of the 1930 crop. Tn revised areo in cultivation in the.
Unit:i St.:- ts on Jaly 1, 1930 is given as 46,078,0 0 which is a decrc:..'.c of
989,3)0 :.cres or 2.1 per cent fror. the; acreajg in cultivation July 1, 199.
The area pic1C ic in 1930 was estiirmatd at 45,091,000 acros or a:.. ab an.o1u.nt
S of 2.1 per cent compared with a 2.7 per cent abanadonicnt after July 1 in
the 1929 -crcagc.
lThc evcr.,c yield per ccre is pJ.-ccd at 147.7 pounds which is 2.1
per ce.t or 3.1 -ounds lower then the Dccei.iber estimate. The yield of
the 1929 crop vwas 155.0 pounds per ocre and of tnc 1:.28 crop 152.9 pounds.
This we.z th- lowest yield pcr acre sincc t,-e 1923 crop whcn the yield was
estimated a.t 130.6 pounds per acre. '.ore tn.aL. holf of the reduction in
yield in 193S0 s due to deficient moisture or drought. Reduction from
full yield duc to various causes was estimated to have been 47.1 per cent
compared :.'ith 43.8 per cent for the previous crop. Deficient moisture
was responsible lor 27.7 per cent of this reduction comp-i-'ed with a reduc-
tion of 10.8 ocr cent and 4.4 per cc,'-t in 1929 and 1928 respectively. This
was the gre:tcst percentage loss r.ttributed to drought in the twenty years
for which the rc-,orts :have been made. In 1E25 and 1918 deficient i.oiste.ro
was -~ i' ;ortr;t factor in reducin- yields Lnd the cerccntage reduction was
estimated at 25.1 rnd 23.8 per cent respectively.
Thc bll wccvil damage in 1930 was very low with the reduction in yield
reported -t 5.0 per cen-t co~m..rcd '.,ith 13.3 per cent in 1929 and 14.1 per
cent in 1928. '.'ith the exception of 1925 the loss from boll weevil in l'0
was less t"--:_ i:n niy year since weevil invasion of the Cotton Belt was
The 11 cropr The weather in the Cotton Belt so far this season:
has not be .n vry, favorable for the 1931 crop. Th2 abnormally cool whether
has ret-.rcL-d .crm-~in-tion and necessit:.ted considcr-ble replanting. During
the l-.tter ;:-rt of the week ended Hay 19, however, wc.-ther conditions vwere
considered L..orc favorable.
S-.1;s of fertilizer tags in the South for tic five months ended April
30 were 28.6 :-r cent below this period last o-son ?-id 26.8 per cent below
two years a ;o. On the .ver:, c in recent ye-rs tag srles during this five
months period :...ve averaged about 86 per cent of the s-les for the season,
In Al-b-rn., lississippi, Ark.lrsrs, Louisiana and Texas fertilizer salcs have
been 40 p-r cc:.t or more below last se.-son.
Cotto: jrl-aating in Russia has .ap-arc:etly been making rapid pr.r: ss
and pl-:tin s to l:ry. 1 are reported to be much above plantings to the c..rr-esp'ond-
ing date last ycrr, according to recent c..ble from Agricultural Attr.c.c
Steered -.t Berlin. Tnis is ani increase of 67 p-.r cent over last year. The
Sta.te Pil.:-iin- Bor.rd of Russia has planned that about 5,683,000 acres be
planted in cotton this year which is -n increase of 48 per cent over the
3,840,000 actually planted in 1930. Early plantings are reported to
have Ll.-.do good growth.
Tot-.l -innings of all cotton in Egypt for 1930-31 season to i-ly 1
-nmounted to 1,380,000 bales of 478 pounds which includes 32,000 bales of
low gr-'..c cotton. This is the first time innings statements up to :..ay 1
have boca received. During the 1928-29 .zd 1929-30 seasons the latest
,ginni:ls report was for innings up to April 1 and in both those years
innings to that date were 90 per cent of the final production estimate. The
latest :fficial estimate of production for this season was made in Dcccmber
and pla.ccd the crop at 1,697,000 br.les. It is evident that innings this yor
are run:ri:n.j cnsider-bly behi-nd the two previous .yers, or that the estimate
for the crop is too high because innings to April 1 amounted to only 76
per co3-t :., the totrl estimate r;d innings to I.'f 1 to only 79 per cent,
wheron.s in the past two years innings to April 1 were 90 per cent of pro-
duction. Of the total innings up to the first of :;ay, SkJellaridis amounted
to about 334,000 bales and other varieties to 1,014,000 bales.
An 4o-.2,j.- oti.n Sudan
Last L.onth it was pointed out that the official estimate of the 1930-31
Sudan crop v'hich was released on April 2 amounting to 113,000 bales was
58,000 boles below the December 1 estimate. On May 20 Cotton Specialist,
P. K. iTorris at Cairo cabled that the Sudan Government had reported the.t the
final yield for the Sudan crop was about 102,000 bales of 478 pounds or
9,003 bales below the April estimate. The latest estimate for the 1929-30
crop is 139,000 bales. This was a reduction of about 41 per cdnt of the
1929-30 crop which was due largely to two diseases known as 'leaf curl' and
Union of South Africa
T'c: 1930-31 crop in the Union of South Africa has been reduced due
to insufficient moisture according to Trade Commissioner Taylor. zarly
estimates of the crop placed the production at 12,000 bales of 478 pounds
whereas a recent estimate which was received by cable from Agricultural
Commissioner Taylor on M'y 20 places tne crop at 6,000 bales. The 1929-30
crop was estimated to have been about 13,000 bales. This is a reduction
of 38.5 per cent.
Government reports for 1931 knerican crop
The following table 0ives the dates and subject of future Government
reports on cotton for the crop of 1931 which will be of interest to many.
This includes reports of both the Bureau of the Census and the Department of
Table l.-Go- crn-"c.-:t cott(cn r:rA.rt.: D&.t2 :::.: sa.bjcct for the 1:30 A.'nrican
Date : ay
:Report made up to
Se t. 8
i. dne dnsday
I'.o nd ay
'- c dne sday
i ri day
Tue sd y
Acreage of cotton in cultivation
Ginrnin s, condition and probable
production and acr-eae abandone-d
Ginnin-s, condition -'nd probable
Ginnings, condition and probable
Grade, staple lenitn and tender-
ability of cotton ginned
Gir.nin,:s and probable production
Grade, staple length and tender-
ability of cotton pinned
Ginnin-s, probable production and
Grade, str.ple length and tender-
ability of cotton gimned
Grrade, steapic icngth and tender-
ability of cotton -imned
C-r,-de, staple lCLa,;th aJ.-d tender-
ability of cotto:,; inncd
. ug. 16
i N v.
J -n. 16
Final report for
cotton weelc announced
The first vcc: in June will be celebrated thro-jghout the nation as
. nationall. Cotton Week" according to plj-ns forimuloted recently following : a
conference bctwcen the Sccretr' of Cormcrce, thS- Sucretary of t/ricult-urc,
the prosiidnt of the American C tton :YMaufcturcrs Association, and thc prcsi-
dent of the Cctton-Textilc Institute.
Cotton is now selling at the lowest price level for 15 yeors, r,:flctcd
in currc-it rctril prices of merchandise, -nd the improvements in styli:; c.d
designing by the cotton mills in the United States during the past "iJ:tccn
months are said to excel the ag,re,oatc improvements of the preceding IS -'ca.rs.
These two facts will be stressed in the plan to stimula.te consuraer interest
in cjtto;,n rodcts. It is felt that 3. stimulation of consumer interest
in such an, impcrtr3t cormmodity as cotton will contribute to a general
buying movcT.%cnt in this and other commodities.
It is cstii.ited tnat 5 million American adults !ad 5 billion dollars
in czpitcl -"re cnploycd in the production, manufacture and distribution
of noricrin c rcw-n cotton, and that approximately 12 million persons in the
United States jct their living directly from c:,tton and cotton products.
The Cotton Textile Institute is the clearing house for information
in connection with nationall Cotton Week" and will be assisted by the many
tr-do c.ssocir.tion and cooperative selling agencies identified with the
growi:;-g, shipping, manufacture and distribution of cotton.
Tarbic 2. Ijorld mill stocks of cotton by growths on Au-ust 1 and
February 1, 1920-21 to 1930-31
a:mecrican : Sast : Egyptian Sundries : Total
Season :_: Indian ____
:..ug.; 1:Feb. l:.ug. 1:Feb. I:Aug. 1:Feb. 1:Aug. 1:Feb. l:Aug. l:eb.
: 1,CO0:1,000 : 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,0(
: -n- : rn- : run-: run-: run-: run-: rui-: run-: run-: r
: ning : ning : ning: ning: ning nining: ning: nin: ning: nii
: bl.es: bales: bales: bales: bales: bales: bales: bales: b.les: bcal
1920-21 : 1/ : 2,055: / 1,168: 1/ : 175 : / : 246 / : 3,6
1921-22 : 2,350: 2,768: 1,760: 1,459: 181 :194 : 401 : 602 : 4,692: 5,0;
1922-23 : 2,375: 2,804: 1,805: :1,209: 211 : 204 : 677 : 634 : 5,068: 4,8,
1923-24 : 1,693: 2,369: 1,623: 1,030: 220 : 221 : 396 : 468 : 3,932: 4,01
1924-25 : 1,327: 2,369: 1l592: 738: 188 : 197 : 467 : 655 : 3,574: 3,91
1925-26 : 1,833: 2,862: 1,599: 915: 181 : 200 : 654 : 671 : 4,267: 4,61
1926-27 : 1,969: 2,982: 1,589: 829: 201 : 173 : 739 : 771 : 4,498: 4,7
1927-28 : 3,056: 2,867: 1,515: 969: 210 : 183 : 626 : 863 : 5,407: 4,81
1928-29 : 2,112: 2,958: 1,728: 1,216: 170 : 182 : 777 : 938 : 4,787: 5,2!
1929-30 : 2,129: 2,742: 1,761: 1,173: 228 : 224 : 745 : 792 : 4,863: 4,9j
1930-31 : 1,985: 2,427: 1,567: 1,212: 237 : 202 : 609 : 745 : 4,498: 4,54
Compiled from reports of the Internationnl Federation of Master Cotton
Spinners' c.i Manufacturers' Associations.
1/ 1iT.-t reported.
Table 3. America 1/: Mill stocks of cotton by growthss on Au.;ust
1 and February 1, 1920-21 to 1930-31
: : East : :ast
ATEsrican E ptian SAmdries Total
Season : : Indi an : ptian Sdrs
:AI- .1l :Feb.l :Aug.1 :Feb.1 :Aug.1 :?eb.l :Au.1 :1eb.l :A .1 :Feb.1
: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,00: 1,000: 1,0: 1,00(
Srun- r: 1n- : rLn- : run- : ran- : ri- :- r.- : rn- : ri- : rn--
nin : ning : ning : in nn nin ni nin : nin : ning
: beles: bales: bales: b-.lle: blues ba.les: b, les: bale- b :I.: b:.lc
1920-31 : 1,230: 1,250: 4 : 5 : 96 : 58 :169 : 148 : 1,77: 1,48
1921-22 : 1,259: 1,638: 8 4 : 48 : 45 : 65 : 211 : 1,L,1: 1,8;
1922-23 : 1,155: 1,958: 6 : 3 : 43 : 43 : 212 : 168 : ,-16: 2,17
1923-24 : 1,009: 1,558: 9 5 62 46 120 : 89 : 1,200: 1,72
1924-25 : 650: 1,408: 15 : 8 : 34 : 35 : 127 : 143 : 826: 1,59
1925-26 : 818: 1,815 12 : 8 : 34 : 31 : 157 165 :1,001: 2,01
1926-27 : 1,048: 1,858: 10 : 8 : 45 : 33 : 156 : 104 : 1,2 3: 2,00
1927-28 : 1,394: 1,678 4 : 6 : 41 : 41 : 180 : 138 : 1,319: 1,86
1928-29 : 984: 1,802: 5 : 9 33 : 32 : 132 : 122 :1,154: 1,96
1929-30 : 995: 1,814: 14 : 18 : 62 : 49 :145 : 93 : 1,216: 1,97
1930-31 : 1,098: 1,578: 21 : 16 : 65 : 46 : 92 : 78 :1,27:1,71
.. ." : .
Compiled front reports of the
Federation of masterr .orton
Spinners' c-'d I'anufacturers' Associati6ns.
i/ Includes United States, Canada, Mlexico, Brazil.
Table 4. Europe L/: Hill stock-s of cotton by rowths on A j.st
1 and February 1, 1920-21 to 1930-31
S o r : East
Season : A.-erican Indian : ptian Sundries To tal
:Aug. 1:Ieb. 1:Au,;. 1:Feb. 1:Au l:Feb. 1:AuL;. 1:Feb. l:Auw,. 1:Feb. 1
: ninJ :
1921-22 : 81 :
1922-23 : 838 :
11923-24 : 496
1924-25 : 500 :
1925-26 : 787 :
1926-27 : 663
1927-28 :1,00 :
1928-29 : 792
1929-30 : 730
1930-31 : 629
1, 000: 1,00::
run- : run- : run-
nin: nin : ning_:
bales: b;les: bales:
113 : 145 : 130 :
132 : 272 : 144 :
148 : 108 : 120 :
141: 164: 184 :
146 : 328 : 299 :
120 : 341 :461
116 : 278 : 412 :
136 : 340 : 439 :
152 : 299 : 363 :
128 : 203 : 337 :
Compiled from reports of the International Federation of Master Cotton
Spinners' and Menufacturers' Associations.
1/ Includes Great Britain, Germany, Trance, Russia, Italy, Czechoslovakia,
Belgium, Spain, Poland, Switzerland, Holland, Austria, Sweden, Portu,1l, Finland
Hungary, Denmark, Norway. 2/ Comparable data not available.
Table 5. -
Asia 1/I Mill stocks of cotton by growths on August
1 and February 1, 1920-21 to 1930-31
: : East : : i
Season : A:nerican Indian : Egyptian : Sur.dries Total
:Au.g. l:Feb. 1:Aug. 1:Feb. l:Aug. 1:Feb. l:Aug. 1:Feb. 1:Au&. l:;eb. 1
D. : ning
4I ryr -
: .0 : ,U 0 7 1 0 L 4 : ; 0 1 ; 78 .: .L,( LJJ: 1,9 f
Compiled from reports of the International Federation of Master Cotton
Spinners' and M manufacturers' Associations.
i/ Includes India, Japan, and China.
2/ ho reports for India and China-in 1920-21.
Table 6. Great Britain: Mill stocks of cotton by growths on Au st
1 and February 1, 1920-21 to 1930-31
tAnrican Egyptian Sundries Total
Season rican : Indian
:AnuF. l:Feb. 1:Aug. l:Feb. 1:Aug. 1:Feb. l:Aug. l:Feb. 1:Aug. 1:Feb. 1
: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,000: 1,00,000:1,0: 1,000: 1,000: 1,030: 1,000
: run- : run- : run- : run- : in- : run- : ru- : run- : run- : run-
:. ing : ,ning : ning : ni :
: boles: bales: bales: bales:
284 :' 241 : 11 :18
230 : 200 : 14 : 8
183 : 152 : 14 : 14
104 : 115: 29 : 19
83 : 132 : 28 :19
131 : 135 : 31 : 18
120 : 127 : 32 : 13
122 : 99 : 17 : 11
: 79 : 91 : 24 : 16
S71: 77:24 : 2. :
57: 65: 38 29:
ning : ning : ning: aE : n ing :
bales: bales: 'bales: bales: b.les:
108: 70 : 33 : 19 : 436 :
64 : 60 : 27 :36 :335
71 : 63 : 43 : 40 : 311
69 : 78 :35 : 39 237 :
60 : 57- : 34 :40 :205
52 : 66- : 38 :48 :252
45: 41 -15 :63 : 242
44 : 36 : 71 : 69 : 257 :
43: 46 : 58 :56 : 20 :
41 : 47 :41 : 88 : 177
35 : 33 : 57 : 51 :187
F ** :. F :. : '
Compiled from reports of the International Federation of Master Cotton
Spinners' and I.anIufacturers' Associations.
FiS re Te Cotton Prospect ..
Prices . . .
Stoc-:s and movements. . .
Textile situation . .
u.ro e . . .
Japan. . . .
China . . .
Pro.-i.ction, acreage and crop condition reports.
liscell eo s news. . .
!62 08863 1352Z
* S .
* S .
. 3 6
. 9 -10
. 10 '
1 Governlent cotton reports: Dates and subject for the 1930 Ameri-
can crop . . .
2 .lorld mill stocks of cotton by growths on August 1 and February
1, 1c20-21 to 1930-31. . .
3 Anerica: Hill stocks of cotton by growths on August 1 and
February 1, 1920-4 and 1930-31 ..... .
4 Europe: ;ill stocks of cotton by growths on August 1 and
Fcbr -ary 1, 1920-21 and 1930-31. . .
5 Asia: '.ill stocks of cotton by growths on August 1 and
February 1, 1920-21 and 1930-31. . .
6 Trpat Britain: Hill stocks of cotton by growths on August
1 a:id February 1, 1920-21 and 1930-31. .
ERSITY OF Flll ll ORI DA lll ll lillll
. . II "
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