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World cotton prospects
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 Material Information
Title: World cotton prospects
Physical Description: v. : ; 27 cm.
Language: English
Creator: United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics. -- Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Publisher: Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Division of Statistical and Historical Research.
Place of Publication: Washington
Frequency: monthly
regular
 Subjects
Subjects / Keywords: Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre: federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )
 Notes
Dates or Sequential Designation: - C-133 (Oct. 1936).
General Note: Reproduced from typewritten copy.
General Note: Description based on: C-59 (June 1930).
 Record Information
Source Institution: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier: aleph - 026660256
oclc - 30588060
Classification: lcc - HD9070.4 .Un311
System ID: AA00013009:00009
 Related Items
Succeeded by: Cotton situation
Related Items: Statistics on cotton and related data

Full Text




UNITED STATES DEPARTmNT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

C-68 WORLD COTTON PROSPECTS Mr.rch 26, 1931



SU i AARY

The price of American cotton rose to a level about 2 cents per pound

above the low point of December 15 by the first week of March, but on MAarch

20 it was about one-half cent below the peak of I'.arch 4. The movement of

prices for other growths was somewhat in line with the prices for mnerican.

With the upward movement of prices there was increased buying and price-

fixing which continued fairly well throughout February, but with the decline

in prices in early March there has been some relaxation.

The world visible supply of all cottons on March 13, 1931, was about

2,163,000 bales above the supply on the corresponding date last year and the

visible supply of American cotton was about 2,330,000 bales more than last

year. The decrease in the visible supply of all growths from February 13

to March 13 this year was 105,000 bales compared with a decrease last year

of 448,000 bales. The same comparison for American shows a decrease of

230,000 and 512,000 bales, respectively, for this year and last,

In February exports exceeded those for February, 1930, by 31,000 bv.les,

S but for the season to the end of February, exports were $89,000 bales below

the first seven months last season.

Sales of cotton cloth in February were at the high. st weekly average

since September 1929. The increase in shipments in January and February

reduced the stocks to the lowest figure since November, 1927, and the in-

crease in sales made the total of unfilled orders the largest since December,

1929. This created considerable optimism in the industry. Apparently the






C-68


increase in sales was mostly of goods for household uses.

Better relations between Great Britain and India and the promise of

elimination of the boycott on British goods in addition to the January and

February strengthening in prices of raw cotton, have stimulated trade in

cotton textiles abroad. At the beginning of Karch trade sentiment was

better than it had been for a long time. Since then it has not been quite

so good. Recent reports from Manchester, however, state that the yam and

cloth markets are more active and that sales to India are larger and pros-

pects for trade with China are better. As yet there has been no material

stimulus of actual business for the cotton mills of Continental Europe.

In China the piece goods tariff has given encouragement to the weaving industry

and more looms are being added in the fine goods mills. This has caused

prices of higher count yarns to rise, which in turn has increased the

interest in American cotton.


-2-











THE COTTON PICTURE


CENTS
PER
POUND
25


20


15


10


5


0

BALES
MILLIONS

20

16


12


8

U


AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN.

AMERICAN COTTON.APPARENT SUPPLY
-REMAINING IN U.S.,AT BEGINNINGOF MONTH-

19328-29
-i/,92P9-J3
/1930-3J /


DEC. FEB.


APR. JUNE


CENTS
PER
POUND
25


20


1


10

5


I I I I I Iii I I I I 1 ii iI I Ii


1919-20 '21-22
U.S.DEPARTME'.T OF AGRICULTURE


'23-24 '25-26 '27-28 '29-30 '31-32
NCG. -2248 BUREAU OF AGR1CULtlRAI ECONOMICS


PRICE:WEEKLY AVERAGE OF AMERICAN MIDDLING 7/8 INCH IN 10 MARKETS
-1928-29 --929 -30 1930 -31



Ism

a -






I I I I I II


l ll l I I I I I I I I I I 1 1 11 0
FEB MAR APR. MAY JUNE JULY
S .- BALES
I THOUSANDS
FOREIGN COTTON WORLD VISIBLE SUPPLY_ 3,00
ON FRIDAY NEAREST END OF MONTH
S2,800
** 928-29 6'0-
--"929-30 / 2,600
/1930 31 2,600
I-930-31/


2, 200

/ 2,000



1_..600
BALES
RAW COTTON U.S EXPORTS THOUSANDS
1,600



% 12-
1, 1,400
9 9 ..S9-30 1,200
I1930-31


800

600

-% 200


0
AUG. OCT. DEC. FEB. APR. JUNE
CENTS
N CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL PER
U.S.,1919-193 POUND
4-0.0


32.5


25.0


17.5


10.0


AUG. OCT.


PER
CENT

140


COTTON PRICE AND INDEX OF COTTO
PRODUCTION IN


.... :....


-







0-68


Prices

Spots

The general advance in cotton -p:rices wnich began about the r.Uid.l.e of
December resulted in a rise of about 2 cents oer pound in the irarkets for
American cotto. b. .:arch 4. The movement of prices for other ::rowths of
cotton was also upward during thick p,-riod. From archh 4 to IMarch 20,
however, the price of American cotton. declined about one-half cent per pound
and a somnewh,.t similar decline occurred in prices of foreign cotton. With
the upturn in cotton price there was a general improvement in sentiment
among tne co.ton spinners and merchants, and, as a result, sales and price-
fixing increased considerable. Of ..ioro f fundamental significance, however,
were the irnmrove:-entt in the statistical position of the cotton cloth in-
dustry in the United States, and the promise of the elimination of the
Indian boycott on British goods, which created some optimism in the British
cotton textile industry. The lack of a substantial pick-up in textile
activity throughout the world, and the continued low level of activity in
most other lines of industry, were important factors influenting the
movement of prices since L:arch 4.

From February 20 to !.arch 20 there /were net declines in the Liver-
pool cotton market for all imported growths except. E-ptian SI.:ellaridis
and Peruvian Tianiis which made sliht advances. nTe cha-nge in prices at
Liverpool of the important growths from February 20 to Larch 20 in cents
per pound were as follows:

Peruvian Tangois + 0.02
Egyptian Sa,:ellaridis + 0.20
Egyptian Uppers 0.14
Indian Oomra No. 1 0.20
SAnerican i iddlin ; 0.18
Brazilian Ceara 0.18
Brazilian Sao Paulo 0.18
Peruvian Smooth 0.18
Indian Sind 0.30

The price of Amnerican middling 7/8 inch cotton at the ten spot markets
rose fro.. the low point of 8.58 cents -per pound made on December 15 to
10.56 cents on i.larch 4. After March 4 there was a gradual decline to 9.97
cents -er pound or. 1.arch 13 recovering to 10.08 cents on :arch 20. For
the week ended ierch 14, the weekly average was 10.05-cents coTmpared wit
10.44 cents per pound the previous week. The average price for the week
ended March 15, 1S30. was 14.18 cents per pound. The average price of
American imiddling at ten markets durijun Fbruary was 10.12 cents and coln-
pares with 9.37 cents in January, 3.16 in December and 15.11 cents in
February, 1930. The average price received by producers in the United
States in February was 9.1 cents per pound, or 0.5 cents per pound above
January, 0.4 cents above December and compares with an average'price of
14.8 cents in Febra.ary, 1930;






C-68 -5-

Stocks and j ovcments

Apparent supply of American cotton in United States

The apparent su-ply of Amnerican cotton remaining in the United States
as of :ierch 1, 1931 totaled 10,552,000 bales compared with 8,038,000 bales
a year earlier and 6,845,000 bales on 'March 1, 1929. The decrease in this
apparent supply from February 1 to Mlarch 1 this year was 1,156,000 bales
compared with a decrease last year of 967,000 bales. Thle greater decrease
in the apparent supply this year was due to the decrease of 313,000 bales
in the final innings figures from the December estimate of production,
since domestic consumption in February was lower than last year and exports
were only slightly higher.

'Jorld visible supply

The world visible supply of all cottons on March 13 totaled 9,795,000
running bales according to the Cormmorcial and Financial Chronicle. This
compares with 7,632,000 on the corresponding day last year. The visible
supply of Arieric.n cotton on this date was 7,190,000 bales and compares
with a total of 4,860,000 bales a year earlier. The world visible supply
of foreign cotton on Iarch 13 amounted to 2,605,000 bales compared with
2,772,000 bales a year earlier. The visible supply of all growths was
2,163,000 bales above last year while the visible supply of American was'
2,330,030 bales higher than a year earlier. There was a decrease in the
total visible supply of all cotton from February 13 to March 13 of 105,000
bales compared v:ith a decrease of 448,000 bales during this period last
year. The decrease in the visible supply of American cotton for the month
amounted to 230,000 bales this year compared with a decrease of 512,000
bales during the same period last year. No particular change has taken
place in the location of the visible supply either of American or foreign
cottons.

Exports of domestic cotton

Domestic exports during February amounted to about 433,000 running
bales compared with 402,000 bales in February, 1930 and 613,000 bales during
February, 1929, according to the Bureau of the Census. This was the first
month since last September in which exports exceeded those during the
corresponding month the previous year. This brought the total exports for
the season to 4,904,000 bales which was 389,000 bales below exports to
the end of February, 1930. Exports to France during February were above
last year as has been the case during five of the seven months so far this
season. Exports to Japan during February amounted to 96,000 bales and were
about 42,000 bales above February, 1930. For January exports to Japan
were also above the previous year so that the total to Japan so far this
season is now only 58,000 bales below last year. Comparative exports to
Germany during February also showed improvement, but only about 2,000 bales
below February, 1930 whereas during January they were about 66,000 bales
below the corresponding month the previous year.


--------~~------~.~~









Exports of foreign cotton

For the week ended I.arch 12 there wore 83,000 running bales of cotton
exported from India compared with 49,000 bales during the corresponding week
in 1930 according to the Commercial and Financial Chronicle. ITost of these
exports went to the Continent although a goodly proportion 'ent to Japan and
China. From August 1 to March 12 exports from India totaled 2,211,000 bales,
239,000 b.?.ls ::.bov'. tLhe 19 :S- se:.on ::.d 333,03 'i '..1o ove th.is 3riod
in t:i 1920"3-9 saon. T:.-us f.r t'.:is saso" o:orts to Cot Z:tincnt of
Europe have been 141,000 bales below last season while exports to Groat
Britai-n have been 41,000 bales above last season. Exports to Japan and China
have been 329,000 bales above the 1929-30 season.

Exports from Alexandria during the week ended I.iarch 11 amounted to
23,000 running bales or an increase of 8,000 bales over the sale period in
the 1929-30 season although for the season from A-.::ust 1 to I ,rch 11 exports
were about 56,000 bales below the corresponding period the previous season.
Exports listed by the Co:-v-.4rcial and Fin.--cial Chronicle as going to the
Continent and India is the only group showing an increase over last season,

Stocks in consuming establishments, etc.

At 2;:13 ;'d of0 February, 1931 stocks on hand in United States consuming
establishments as reported by the Baru-.. of the Clnsus amounted to 1,548,000
running bales compared with 1,806,000 bales last year. All of those stocks
were of A. iorica: cotton with the -xce-ption of about 88,000 bales. At this
time in 1930 stocks of foreign cotton in consuming establisirments ar.mountd to
101,000 bales. This decrease of only 13,000 bales in view of the fact that
imports of foreign cotton this season wore about 174,000 bales below last
season due to the tariff, reflects the low consumption of foreign cottons.
The consumption figures which show a decline of 44.3 per cent in the
consumption of foreign cotton during tie first seven months of this season
compared with 1929-50 whereas consumption of all cotton has declined only
23.9 per cent.

Imports of foreign cotton

Domestic imports of raw cotton during February amounted to 11,000 bales
compared with 24,000 in February, 1930. For -the seven months August to
February, imports totaled 41,000 compared with 215,000 in the corresponding
period last season. It is interesting to note that during the previous
six months imports from Peru amounted to only 21 bales while during the month
of February alone, they amounted to 873 bales and wore 621 bales above
February, 1930 when there was no tariff.

Continental spinners' takings of American cotton 1

The takings of American cotton by continental spinners for the four
weeks ended about February 20, 1931, amounted to 330,000 bales or an increase
of about 46,000 bales over the previous four weeks, but acoro 60,000 bales
below the corresponding period last season. For the season from August 1 to
February 20, takings of American totaled 2,178,000 bales coi-iared with
2,602,000 and 2,867,000 for last season and the 1928-29 season. (See T-ble 1)
_/ Based on report dated iMarch 5, 1931 fro:.i Agricultural Attache' L. V. Stecro
at Berlin.


-6-


C-68






C-68 -7-

Table 1.- Cotton, American; Continental spinnors' talkings,
specified periods.

Four wco's 1926-27 1927-28 1928-29 19-9-30 1950-31
onded about
1,000 bales; 1,000 bales; 1,000 bales: 1,000 bales. 1,000 bales
:of 478 Ibs. :of 478 lbs. :of 473 lbs. :of 478 lbs. :of 478 Ibs.

Aug. I-Aug. 8: (62) : (89) (131) (121) : (52)
Sept. 5 317 431 295 : 232 231
Oct. 3 : 288 334 339 282 276
Oct. 31 457 421 : 427 : 332 323
Nov. 28 473 440 : 424 : 434 : 389
Dec. 26 544 475 436 415 313
Jan. 23 : 449 430 : 454 406 274
Feb. 20 680 440 : 361 : 380 320
Total Aug.1-: :
Feb.20: 3,270 : 3,060 2,867 : 2,602 : 2,178
Liar. 20 : 539 386 477 364
Apr. 17 463 : 401 : 332 : 304
Kay 15 : 524 : 420 : 337 : 256
June 12 : 443 361 417 245
July 10 516 384 304 243
July 31 2/ 253 303 143 : 163

Total :(6,008) : (5,315) (4,877) (4,177)


_/ Three weeks.

Textile Situation

United States

Domestic mill consumntiol during February amounted to 434,000 bales,
compared with 454,000 during January and 494,000 during February, 1930,
according to the Bureau of the Census. The daily rate of consumption was
higher than in January, although considerably below February, 1930. n the
ton years 1920-21 to 1929-30 consumption during February avora'god about
38 thousand bales below January, whereas this year it was only 20 thousand
bales below January consuintion. Therefore, the textile activity in the
United States during Fobruary, after adjusting for seasonal, was probably
above January. The total consumption for the seven monthss ended February
28, 1931, amounted to 2,900,000 bales compared with 3,809,000 bales during
the corresponding period last season.

The statistical position of the domestic cotton cloth industry has
shown considerable improvement during January aind February, according to the
reports of the Association of Cotton Te::tile l.Cerchants of Now York. In
both months shipments wore above production, and sales wore above shipments,
resulting in a decrease in stocks and an increase in unfilled orders. At
the end of February stocks wore the lowest since 1,lovonbcr, 1927, and unfilled
orders were the largest since Decomber, 1929.


-----------~.-1 ---;.,,
arl~_*l~~~um~~..~nr..~c~-*~,. ~.~I~II. ....... .. r~-ZUI~---~~ - --- ---- ._





C-68


The production of standard cotton cloth during February showed a
weekly average increase over January of about 2.5 million yards, which is
practically the same as the avera e increase during the past three years'.
The weekly averagee of sales during February, on tie other hand, showed an
increase of about 21.9 million yards compared with. January, and was the
largest since September, 1929. During the past three seasons, 1927-2- to
1929-30, the weekly average of sales during February has been about 13.3
million yards above January, and the ratio of sales to production during
these years averaged 97.7 per cent, whereas during February this year the
ratio was 154.0 per cent. Shipments during February, compared with January,
also increased more than average during this 3-year period. For the two
months January and February, sales averaged 136 per cent of production and
shipments 111 per cent of production. Stocks on hand at the end of February
amounted to 319.3 yards, a decrease of 10.2 per cent during the month and
were 125.8 million yards, or 28.3 per cent below the end of February, 1930.
Unfilled orders at the end of February amounted to 395.8 million yards, an
increase of 24.7 per cent over January and 10.0 per cent over February a
year ago. It is evident that the extraordinary liquidation of stocks has
been accomplished by restriction of production, and that production is now
more nearly in line with demand. This i:.provemjent in the statistical
position has brought about price advances in nearly all constructions and has
created a considerably more optimistic feeling in the industry, although
prices are still said to be at unsatisfactory levels.

Great Britain

There is still some doubt as to the elii.ination of the boycott by
Indian leaders,but the promise of elimination, the more friendly relation
existing between Great Britain and India, and t'.e fact that distributors of
goods in India a-parently wish to resume trade with Great Britain probably
brought about an increase in exports of piece goods to India and has created
a more optimistic feeling in the British industry. exports of British cotton
goods to India show the significance of the boycott problem to tie British
cotton industry. For the calendar year 1928 exports of piece goods to India
amounted to 42.2 per cent of the total exports from Great Britain. In 1929
the percentage going to India dropped to 40.5 per cent an;d during 1950, the
year in which the boycott was in full operation, exports going to India
represent only 34.5 per cent of the total. Tie quantity of piece goods
exported from Great Britain to India in 1930 was only 55.7 per cent as large
as the quantity exported in 1929. It is difficult to say what proportion of
this decline was due to the boycott on British goods and what proportion was
due to other factors, such as the depression, the decline in the price of
silver and the increase in the Indian tariff. That India is the backbone
of Lancashire's industry is evident from the fact that Zhina, ncxt largest
market, took only about 5 per cent of the total piOce goods exports during
1928 and 1923. In 1930 exports to China including r- Hong :on a&nountcd to only
32.6 per cent of the exports in 1929 and constituted orUy about 2.6 per cent
of the total exports of piece goods from Grat Britain. This relative decline
in exports to China was due to two factors; first, to internal political
disorder which upsot trade and reduced the pra'chasin" po'.cr of the6 people,
and, second, the decline in the value" of silver. Exports to countries other
than- India and Chin.", wre 76.5 per cent as large in 1330 as in 1929. Total
exports to all countries for 1930 amounted to about 65.5 per cent of the
1929 exports.





C-68 -9-


Exports of piece goods from Great Britain during February amounted to
146.3 million yards compared-with 155.6/ArAsA3n January and 299.5 million
during February, 1930. Yarn exports in February which amounted to 9.3 million
pounds were 2.0 million pounds below January and 2.9 million pounds below
February, 1930, but were still above the low point reached last September.
Recent cables from Manchester report that activity in the yarn and cloth mar-
kets has increased, that sales to India continue to increase and that prospects'
for trade with China are better.

In that section of the Lancashire cotton manufacturing industry which
makes yarns from American cotton an interesting plan for stabilizing prices of
yarn has been developing for some months. The results of a ballot to
determine the attitude of the trade towards the plan was announced on February
13, according to A. R. Thomson, American Consul at Manchester. The ballot
indicated that 63 per cent of the Federation's members using American cotton
would be willing to support the scheme. Briefly the plan is to maintain a
specified margin above the cost of @lean cotton on all yarn sales and to.
regulate production to demand through a pool of spindle hours. The.proposed
plan would enable the smaller mills to enjoy some of the privileges which a
large combine affords. Such a plan might eliminate destructive competition in
yarn selling between the mills of this section of the industry and should work
toward stabilization. However the plan does not solve the important problem
of foreign competition..

Continental Europe 1/

A steady rise in raw cotton prices was the outstanding feature of
cotton market developments on the Continent during February. It gave cotton
merchants and spinners generally more confidence in the soundness of the
market, and created a healthier sentiment on the outlook than existed for a
long time past. There was no material stimulus of actual business for the
cotton mills, but the industry during February was undoubtedly facing the
future with more optimism. The March decline in prices, however, has been
accompanied by a considerable relaxation.

Among cotton men on the Continent warning voices pointing to the
generally large world stocks of cotton appear to be fully offset by the
opinion that supporting strength will soon be received from the demand side.
Considerable attention is being given to the effect that present prices may
have on acreage and the influence that the low sales of fertilizer and a warm
winter may have on yields.

Despite the improvement of cotton textile sentiment in February,
sales of cotton spinners and weavers on the Continent as a whole have so
far shown little improvement, though some evidence of revival has appeared
at the close of the month. Reports on textile sales from France are generally
better than elsewhere, but a small pick-up is also indicated in Italy, Poland,
and parts of Central Europe, including% Germany. Unfilled orders on hand in
most countries are still indicated to be very small, however, and the new
business recently booked has not been sufficient to constitute a definite
change in the sales situation. Prices, moreover, continue the object of much
rorrplaint.
_/ Based on report dated March 5, 1931 from Agricultural Attache L. V. Steere
at Berlin, supplemented by able on March 22.





C-68


Spinning and weaving mill activity has shown very little change during
February, taking the Continent as a whole. If anything, operations may have
averaged slightly lower in February than in January as a result of the
restriction of activity in France. The local improvement reported from a few
small centers in different countries was not adequate to -ffset curtailment
effected. at other points. There is, howev-er, some ground for belief that
statistics for March may show a slightly brighter picture.

Spinner purchases of raw cotton in February, notwithstanding little
change in actual mill business, continued active throughout the month, with
price fixing also of large volume. Spinners were particularly interested in
American staples, but Indian also experienced good inquiry, and at times
Egyptians, too, were in active demand. C.i.f. import 'uying bj cotton
merchants in February, moreover, assumed large proportions for the first time
in many weeks. This general revival in buying interest in the absence of
betterment in the actual distribution of cotton goods was a clear reflection
of growth in cotton textile optimism. The March decline in cotton prices,
however, has resulted in a decline in buying interest.

Germany

In Germany the cotton textile situation shows little real change, but
one is inclined to regard it as slightly i Lproved. .1ill sales of yarn and
fabrics have risen slightly, particularly in the Rhine district, but prices
are considered inadequate. On the other hand, activity has .not improved; on
the contrary, the German spinners have formed a production cartel, represent-
ing 90 per cent of all epindleage, which is to organize a further curtailment
of production by 10 per cent. As fine spinners (above No. 70 English) and
two cylinder spindles, as well as spindles working to supply the mills' own
looms, are exempted, about 60 per cent of all German cotton spiitdles are
affected by the proposed reduction, which was to go into effect March 16 for a
period of six weeks, unless prolonged. The restriction of output contemplated
by this agreement is obviously not great, and, in fact, does not appear to be
the primary goal ofthe cartel. Its main purpose appears to be to guard
against an immediate or large increase in output when orders pick ua., and the
agreement, therefore, seems indicative of expected improvement in the situation
of the industry rather than a further slump.

Czechoslovakia and Austria

In Czechoslovakia and Austria conditions are very much the same as a
month ago, though there has been an active revival in spinner purchases of
raw cotton and price-fixing, as was the case in Germany. Yarn and cloth sales
have also improved somewhat, but are still on very low levels. Activity seems
to have declined slightly because of the entire shuttinz-down of certain mills.

France

France, following slack January business for yarn and cloth, reported
some improvement in February, when interest of weavers and the textile trade
was stimulated by rising raw material prices. However, activity of the mills
has continued restricted. Roubaix spinners have reduced work by 13 to 15
hours a week in many establishments, Rouen shuts down every Saturday, and it


-10-






C-68 -11-

can be said, generally, thst in most- districts spinners have reduced
operations to a 5-day week. Spinner demand for raw cotton was active over
most of February, and the same was true of price fixing.

Belgium

Spinners and weavers continue to complain of small orders and in-
sufficient prices. Restriction of activity is now reported to average 25 to
40 per cent. Some wage disputes are in sight because of the intention of
employers to reduce wages.

Italy

Italy reports a slight betterment toward the end of February with
respect to new orders for yarn and goods, but the situation is still bad arid
activity of the mills remains low. Spinners are even considering an
opportunity to organize short-time for some weeks. Demand for raw cotton and
price-fixing has somewhat increased; spinners cotton stocks and cotton
contracts are considered very small. There is no question that cotton mill
activity has improved from the low levels in the fall of 1930, but this
improvement is largely seasonal, and is of little significance as yet, as
activity is still below anything in the past six years.

Poland

Poland reports -light improvement in the demand for yarns and cloth,
and expects to obtain a reorganization of the spinner cartel.

Soviet Russia .
_la
The Russian cotton procuring program has dropped to a level in February;
which raised considerable doubt as to the possibility of realizing the entire
amount called for in this year's plan. Up to February 20 procurings had reach
to only 63.3 per cent of the plan whereas at -the same time last year they
amounted to 74.2 per cent. The plan, however, for this year is 41 per cent
above last year and in view of the fact that a considerable amount of Russian
cotton is being sold in Liverpool it seems unlikely that ,-ny failure of the
procurings to equal the total plan will not interfere to a very great extent
with the activity in the Russian cotton mills. The cotton textile production
plan for the economic year 1931 provides for the manufacture of about 3.1 bill:
yards of fabrics or an increase of about 20 per cent over the 1930 production..:;
The actual production in 1930 was considerably below the production plan, how-,".
ever, and it is probable that the 1931 plan will not be reached. It also seems
probable that imports of cotton from foreign sources into Russia during 1930-83
will agLin show a decline from previous years. Recently published figures on'
total Russian'imports during the Rus&i.n economic year 1929-30 which begins in)
October shows a decrease of 44.2 per cent from 1928-29. The decline in
imports of American cotton during 1929-30 amounted to 62.3 per cent.


-_ ~~____ ~i~L


~- ---






-12-


China

It was stated last month that the unprecedentedly low exchange
rate for silver had brought about relatively high prices for American
cotton, and that, without corresponding advances of high count yarns, the
sales of American cotton in China might be curtailed. According to a
cable from Agricultural Com.diissioner ITyhus dated March 14 there has been
an improvement in the price of high count yarn and more interest is being
shown in American cotton by Chinese owned mills. With the renewed buying
of American cotton during February and early March the prospects are that
takings of American cotton for the 1930-31 season will be somewhat larger
than last season.

The new piece goods tariff has given encouragement to the Chinese
weaving industry and more looms are being added in some of the mills, in
spite of the unfavorable exchange rate. This no doubt is a factor in the
advance in price of high count yarns.

Production, acreage and crop condition reports

United States

Weather According to the Weather Bureau weather conditions during
the first two wocks of the past month in the cotton belt w.re generally
favorable for farm work with a mild, dry condition existing, especially
cast of th biiississippi River. For the week ended March 10, in some regions
which were in need of moisture, there was substantial to heavy precipitation.
In much of Texas excessive winter rains followed by high drying winds left
the soil in poor condition over the stern two-thirds of the State,
additional rains during the week ended March 17, however, improved this
condition.

For the three months December, January and February the precipitation
for the Cotton Bolt east of Texas and Oklahoma, was considerably below
normal while in Texas and Oklahoma thore was more than a normal amount. For
those States cast of Texas and Oklahoma, the percentage of normal for these
three months averaged about 72 per cent, and in Alabama the average was 61
which was the lowest on record. In Texas and Oklahoma the average was 127
per cent or 27 per cent above normal.



1,202,000 balcs of cotton of 478 pounds net have been ginned in
Egypt for the season up to March 1, according to a cable from the Intcrnationnl
Institute of Agriculture at Rome. This is a decrease of 214,000 bales or
15 per c-_nt under the 1,416,000 bales ginned at the same date last season,
and 228,000 bales or 16 per cent under tho 1,430,000 bales ginned by March
1, 1929. Of the total innings to March 1 this year, 302,000 bales wore
of the Sakollaridis variety. This is 132,000 bales or 30 per cent less than
wore ginned at the same date last season and 146,000 bales or 33 per cent
less than were ginned by March 1, 1929. The innings to March 1 of all
other varieties is estimated at 901,000 bales, a decrease of 82,000 bales
or 8 per cent under the quantity ginned by March 1 of 1930 and 8 per c nt
below 1929.


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The decrease of 15 per cent or 214,000 bales from last year in
the innings up to MLarch 1, gives rise to some doubt of the accuracy of .
the latest production estimate for the 1930 crop. The estimate of. production 'i
is only 2 per cent or 28,000 bales below the final estimate of the 1929
crop. Incidentally the November estimate of production in Egypt was 46,000
bales below the cstima'o released two months earlier. The relationship
betucen innings to-March 1 and the final estimates of the crops in 1928
and 1929 would indicate a crop from present innings about 250,000 bales
below the latest estimate for 1930 of 1,697,000 bales of 478 pounds net. .
Of course, a slowness in innings could account for all of this discrepancy,'
but from present low prices and the reduction in the November estimate it'
scoms reasonable to suppose that at least some further reduction may be
made in subsequent estimates.

Miscellaneous news

Increased uses pro-paganda ,-

In Gastonia, North Carolina there is an active movement among
the various clubs as the Chamber of Commnerco, womon's clubs, merchants
associations, and civic clubs, to promote the wearing of cotton clothing.
As this county not only produces a considerable amount of cotton but has
more cotton textile mills than any other county in the United States.- The
slogan has therefore been adopted "We Grow Cotton, We Manufacture Cotton,
Let's Wear Cotton."

The first annual cotton carnival which was held in the first week .
of March at Aemphis was, according to press reports, considered a big 3UCswasi
This carnival was staged by the Memphis cotton dealers, retail merchants
and others interested in the welfare of the cotton industry, as a promotio3u:i
feature for extending the use of cotton textiles.

As a corallary to the British Cotton Exhibition which was held on
February 16-28 in London, the Lancashire retail distributors sot up a
permanent establishment in Londdn for the help and guidance of British
textile manufacturers, according to a report from A. R. homson, American
Consul at Manchester. This bureau is to keep the textile products of .I
England constantly before prospective buyers. It is felt that such a bur :'
would facilitate the task of the buyer whether from England or abroad,
because under one roof he could examine and obtain references with regard i
to probably the largest collection of textile fabrics in the world.



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