UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT AGRTCULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

C-60 WORLD COTTON PROSPECTS July 12, 1930



SULMARY

Cotton prices both in America and abroad continued downward during

most of June. From June 6 to July 3 there was a net decline in spot

prices of American middling in the United States of 210 to 230 points.

In Liverpool, American middling dropped 148 Lmerican points, a decline of

9.6 per cent and No. 1 Oomra (Indian cotton) declined 12.7 per cent while

other important growths showed a little more strength. Futures contracts

for American cotton dropped 103 to 212 points during this period with

New York July contracts considerably weaker than other contracts.

The world visible supply on June 27 was about 1.5 million bales

above last year at this time and is the largest for this date since 1921.

Of this total 56 per cent is American as compared with 51 per cent a year

ago. The decrease in the visible supply for the throe weeks from June 6
I
to June 27 was about one-half as groat this year as last. Exports from

the United States for the socson up to Junc 27 were about 1.3 million bales

. below last year and for the period Juno 6 to 27 wore about ono-half es much

as for this period in 1929.

Activity in the domestic textile industry continued at & low level

during June with considerable evidence of organized efforts to bring

about improvement. Groat Britain remains in a depressed condition though









C-60 -


some increase-in inquiries for yc.rn and cloth is reported. Mill activity

in continental Europe during May and June continued very low with consump-

tion probably reaching the lowest level since 1926. Japsanse mills with

a nominal 17 per cent restriction of output have decided on an additional

10 per cent restriction. Disturbed conditions in the interior of China

have resulted in an accumulation of stocks but as yet there has been no

curtailment of spinning operations..

..cracge in cultivation in the United States on July 1 is estimated

at 45,815,000 acres or 2.7 per cent below last year and 2.4 per cent less

than 1928. The planted acreage in Russia is reported to be considerably

higher than last year.

The weather throughout the American Cotton Belt during June was

slightly unfavorable for the best development of cotton though generally

favorable the last half. The condition of the Egyptian crop during June

was reported at 100 to 102 per cent of the 10-year average.















*"V








- -


C-60 Prices


Spots

The downward trend in the American markets which has prevailed since
the beginning of the season, with the exception of th" period from Ma.rch
10 to April 3, continued to June 24. From June 6 to June 24 the average
price of middling 7/8 in the ten markets declined from 14.59 cents to 12.02
cents, New Orleans declined from 15.00 cents to 12.36 cents, and New York
from 15.85 cents to 13.25 cents, a decline of 257 points, 264 points, and
260 points respectively. Since June 24 there has been some improvement,
the ten markets averaging 12.49 cents on July 3 or 47 points above the low
of June 24 and a net decline of 210 points since June 6. New Orleans spots
on July 3 were 12.70 cents and New York 13.60 a net decline from June 6
of 230 and 225 points respectively.

Prices in Liverpool j/ during the period June 6 to July 3 declined
somewhat in line with prices in the United States. The quotation for fully
good fair Sakellaridis on July 3 was 24.43 cents per pound or 223 points
below the June 6 price. Fully good fair Uppers were 19.34 cents having de-
clined 81 points since June 6. American middling at Liverpool declined
148 points tol5.43 cents per pound on July 3. Fully Oomra No. 1 (Indian
cotton) on July 3 was 9.63 cents, 122 points below the quotation of 10.85
cents on June 6. Oomra's showed the greatest weakness with a decline of
12.7 per cent, American next with 9.6 per cent, Sakellaridis 9.1 per cent
and Uppers only 4.2 per cent.

Futures

Futures contracts for American cotton in the important markets de-
clined 103 to 212 points per pound from June 6 to-July 3 with the greatest
decline in the New York July contract which.declined 212 points to 13.49
cents. The New Orleens contract for July delivery declined 148 points to
13.93 cents and Liverpool closed at 14.58 cents.at a decline of 122 points.
Contracts for October delivery declined.124.points at Now York and closed
at 13.26 (old contract), New Orleans closed 116 points lower at 13.03, and
Liverpool 134 points lower at 14.15 cents per pound.

On June 6 New York July contract was 125 points above October con-
tracts and only 5 points below July contracts in Liverpool. On July 3,
however, New York July was only 23 points above October and was 109 points
below Liverpool July contracts.

Futures prices on July 3 were also considerably above the June 24
quotations which were the lowest since the season 1926-27.

I/ Liverpool prices are converted to cents using the factor 2.0277 cents
per pence.






-4-


C-60


STOCKS AND MOVEMENT


World visible supply


The tot-l visible supply on June 27, of 5,951,222 br.es was 1,475,501
bales more than at tic same time last year and was the largest for any corres-
ponding date since 1921. Of this total 3,352,222 bales or 56.3 per cent was
American whereas only 51.4 per cent of the total at this time last year was
American.

It may also be noted that the proportion of American in Great Britain
and continental stocks is considerably lower, meaning necessarily that the
per cent of stocks remaining ill-the United States are considerably higher
than a year ago.

The decrease in the visible supply continues at a very low rate, the
decrease for the three weeks from June 6 to June 27 amounting to 293,894
bales as compared with a decrease during this period a year ago of 560,703
bales (see last month's release for June 6 figures). Of this total decrease,
245,894 bales or 83.6 per cent was American cotton whereas 88.8 per cent of
the decrease a year ago was American.

The Commercial and Financial Chronicle gives the world's visible
supply on Friday Jule 27, with comparisons for same date in 1929 as follows:
American Cotton

Item 1929 1930
::Percent: :Percent
Sof : : of
Bales : total : Bales ; totia
Great Britain stocks . . .... : 522,000: 11.6: 334,000: 5.6
Continental stocks. . . . : 506,000: 11.3: 573,000: 9.6
American afloat for Europe . .. : 178,000: 4.0: 100,000: 1.7
United States port stocks. .. : 791,916: 17.7: 1,679,755: 28.2
United States interior stocks....... : .303,805: 6.8: 665,467: 11.2
United States exports today (Friday) : : :
Total American, : 2,301,721: 51.4: 3,352,222: 56.3

East Indian, Brazil, etc.


Great Britain stocks . . . . : 387,000: 8.9: 522,000: 8.8
Continental stocks. . . . . : 80,000: 1&8: 100,000: 1.7
Indiran-afloat for Europe . . : 116,000: 2.6: 137,000: 2.3
Egypt, Brazil, etc. afloat . . : 124,000: 2.8: 98,000: 1.7
Stocks in Alexandria, Egypt. . : 285,000: 6.3: 502,000: 8.4
Stocks in Bombay, India. . ... : 1,172,000: 26.2: 1,240,000: 20.8
Total East Indian, Brazil, etc.: 2,174,000: 48.6: 2,599,000: 43.7
Total visible supply . . : 4,475,721: 100.0: 5,951,222: 100.0
S 9 5 5


-.4







C-60 5

exports of American cotton

Exports for t.e season through June 27 were 1,348,438 bales below
last year and oxnorts for tle three weeks June 6 JuL'eO 27 amounted to
119,179 bl.cs as comrnro'd with 228,004 bales for t:is cpriod in 1929.
Great Britain has tck:n so far tLis ye.r pronortionally loss t'.n last yc..r
whereas exports to HMaxico, Japan and Chin., wore _about the siac in propor-
tioh to total exports ac a yeqr ago. Exports to France for the season are
still above last yc.-.r, though during May and June oxprts have bon running
blow the previous '-cr.

T:.t following Table on exports was t,-:en from the New York Cotton
Exchange reports:


Erported Aug. 1 Junee 27 Jiuo 6 June 27
to *
to 1923-29 1929-30 1928-29 1929-30

S:Percent: Percent: :Percent :Perc
Rning : of running of Running of Run-ing: of
Sales : total : bales :total bales: total : bales: tot:
--- --- :-- --- :13
Gret Britain :1,830,813: 22.9 :1,252,692: 18.9 :18,145: 8.0 : 13,376:11.
France.........: 783,731: 9.9 : 814,108: 12.3 : 8,027: 3.5 : 4,014: 3.4
Continent,otc.:3,861,520: 48.4 :3,341,782: 50.4 :150,785: 66.1 : 77,547:65.1
Mexico.........: 26,172: .3 : 17,187: .2 : 358: .2 : 347: .3
Japan & China :1,474,883: 18.5 :1,208,912: 18.2:: 50,689: 22.2 : 23,895:20.0
Total :7,982,119: 100.0 :6,634,681: 100.0 :223,004: 100.0 :119,179:100.

Spinc-r's takings
Spinners' takings of American cotton from August 1 to June 27, were
2,251,000 brles below the same period a yerr ago. The greatest relative de-
crease has been in the takings of foreign spinners. This was probably due in
pert to the cheapness of other cottons as compared witL A;erican. Spinners
takings for the four weeks endi.ig Juno 27 were 422,000 bales below this period
last year. There was little difference in the relative takings of the three
groups during these four weeks this year and last year.

Spinners' takings of American cotton as reported by the Now Orlerns
Cotton Exchange.

: Aug. 1 June 21 :Four week's ending June 27
Spinners 1928-29 : 1929-30 1928-29 : 1929-30

1,000 :Pcrcent: 1,000 :Percent: 1,000 :Percent 1,000:Percent
:running: of :running: of :running: of :running: of
bales total : bales total: bles: totaI t: bles: total

Northern states : : : : : : :
and Canada.....: 2,101 : 13.6 : 1,731 :13.1 : 102 : 10.7: 49 : 9.1
Southern states..: 5,477 : 13.4 : 5,037 : 38.1 : 276 : 28.8: 153 : 30.4
Foreign spinners.: 7,890 : 51.0 : 6,449 : 48.8 : 580 : 60.5: 324 : 60.5
Total.........:15,468 :100.0 :13,217 : 100.0 : 958 : 100.0: 536 : 100.0









C-60 6 -


Tad-sings of American compared with other growths

According to Consul Edwin C. Kemp,.total imports of all growths at
Havre during the first ton months of the season wore 14.8 per cent below a
year ago vwile imports of American cotton was only 11.4 per cent below a year
ago.. Imports of American cotton during May, however, were 26.1 per cent be-
low May last year, fwhoerc.s the total imports wero only, 4.17 per cent below May
1929. This was probably due to the relation of New York futures to futures
in other markets.

Imports of American cotton into Japan during May amounted to about 94,000
bales or only enough to moot consumption requirements. Visible stocks ashore
and afloat o-n June 20 were about 230,000 bales, whereas,the probable consump-
tion from the riddle of June -until the new crop arrives in Novcmber is es-
Stimated at about 350,000 bales. (Consul Dickovor at Kobe)

Continental spirners' demand and takings lj

Spin.:1r demand'for raw cotton has been rather generally improved on
price recessions during June. Italy alone appears to have maintained extreme
deserve in the matter of spinner purchases. In both western and central rope
spinners showed interest whenever an important setback in prices developed,
though confining purchases chiefly to'near and summer-month buying. 'Price
fixing also increased oh price recessions, but new crop cotton'has rem*inod
neglected. There is much'reason to believe that spinners, generally, consider
the present extremely low level of cotton prices as.'a favorable buying opport-
unity ond thart the failure of buying to assume larger proportions is due
largely to uncertainty about the general business situation and to continued.
lack of strength in demand for cotton goods. C. i. f. import buying-by mer.
chants has also remained limited.

The Whitsuil holiday period ending the first part of June, with iti red.bc-
Sed business activity, brought a further continuation of the downward tendency
in spinner takings, which, during the four weeks ending June 13 were the
smallest for any period of equal length in several years. Total tadings of
American cotton by continental spinners from August 1 to June 13 are 15 per cent
below those for the same period last season and 20 per cent under takings in
the season 1927-28.

l/ Based on report dated June 26, 1930, from Agricultural Commissioner L. V.
Steere at Berlin.









C-60


Continental spinners' takings of American
cotton during specified periods


Four weeks ending : 1927-28 1928-29 1929-30

S1,000 bales 1,000 bales I : 1,000 bales 7


Nov. 29 ................: 443
Dec. 27 ................: 457
Jan. 24 ...............: 465
Feb. 21 .............:. 397
Mar. 21 ................: 412
Apr. 18 .................: 376
May 16 ................: 404
June 13 ................: 377
From Aug. 1 June 13 ..: 4,724
1/ Bales of 478 pounds net.


424 434
S436 415
454 : 406
361 380
S477 364
332 304
337 256
: 417 : 245
: 4,430 : 3,771_


TEXTILE SITUATION

United States

Textile activity in the United States during June continued at a
rather low level and reports indicate that many mills are reducing operations
still more.

According to the press a rather important project which has been
under consideration for several months by committees representing the
Cotton-Textile Institute and the Association of Cotton Textile Merchants
of New York has resulted in the representatives of 17 firms interested
in the export of cotton textiles voting to form an export association.
The proposed constitution for the association was presented at a recent
meeting and those present voted unanimously to hold another meeting on
July 15 for the purpose of forming the association. It is hoped that
this association which is to be organized under the Webb-Pomorene Act
to obtain uniform terms of payment and other matters which night properly
be the subject of group action will improve the export trade in American
cotton goods.

On July 1 at a meeting in New York which brought together some
of the leading cotton converters.in the business a great deal of interest
was shown in the possibility of developing styles of cotton dresses
suitable for the fall season. There is some talk that cotton may eventu-
ally become an all-year-round proposition in the dress-trade as a result
of this meeting. This would undoubtedly help the cotton textile industry
a great deal should it become a reality.

Great Britain

* The textile industry in Great Britain is still in a depressed
condition though some little improvement in the undertone of business was
reported in the form of increased inquiries for yarn and cloth and freer
testing of prices. The conditions in India and China continue to have
a depressing effect.


_C~__~


- 7 -








-8t-
C-60 8 -

The Manchester Guardian on June 4 reports thct the Lancashire
Cotton Corporation, Ltd., through its chairman Sir Kenneth D. Stewart
issued a statement thrt at a general mooting. on Juno'3, the Corporation
had authorized a sufficient increase in c.pitrl stock to absorb seven
companiess. Thi's brings 853,357.additional. spindles under the control of
the Corporation. :It is hoped that this together with the progress being
made in the stnndsrdizing yarn and, the -dditicnal. deductions in costs
attainad by its cotton-buying department will improve the textile situr.-
ticn in England to some extent. ...
Continental Europe_1/

*Unfavorable conditions have persistedd in the continental Cetton
textile industry during I'ry rnd June, with mill consumption 'of cotton
probably reaching the lowest point since 1926, considering the Corft'iteni
as a wholo. Orders booked by mills continued small an'd mill activity
seemed to be slackoniAg at the time latest reports were received.

The development of new business for both cotton spinning and
weaving establishments has been rather ganerrlly unsatisfactory in recent.
weeks, particularly in Central Europe and Itrly, where this tendency-has
been evident for several months. France also now reports more hesitancy
.and slower bookings for both yarns -nd cloth, afterr a prolonged period
of active trade. Only ths.. small plants in Southeastern Europer.n countriies
which are nell protected by tariffs are still reporting first-r-.te
business.

Mill curtailment. has been more pronounced in Central Europe and
Italy than ,in other prrts of the Continent. Western Europe, particularly
France, h.as for the most pa.rt been .ble to mr.intain previous good opera-
tions, but the mill situation here is lrso less bouyant.

Gcrmany .

With new sales scarce and mill activity -being somewhat curtailed,
conditions in the German cotton textile industry remained unfavorable
during May and June.

Spinners report that current bookings were entirely of a short
term ch:.ractor rnd th t deliveries on old contracts are being c.co )tod
by buyers only with the.greatest reluctance. The level of spinning
activity in thu mills is, the-oforo, said to have been reduced in May
and June as compared with April operations. The 1:test available data
on mill activity, i.e.-, for April, showed consider.blo'improvement but
it is believed that some error exists in the figures, although r slight
increase in Operations may have been possible.
1/ Bcsod on report dated Juno a6, 1930, from Agricultural Commissicnar, -
L. V. Steere at Berlin, Supplemented by cable July 7.






.4EE









C-60


9 -

Germany: Indexes of German cotton ynrn production
monthlyhl y r.vrrc-f Ju":: 1924-Juno .1926 100) 1/


Month


Aug. ....................
Sept ..................... :
Oct. .................... :
Nov. .................... :
Dec. ............... ...... .:

Fob ... .. ........... .. :
Mar. .................... :
Apr. .................... :
May .................... :
June ....................:
July ..................... :
Average ......... :


: 1925-26 :


108
118
117
116
119
102
94
85
76
69
74
70
96


1926-27


85
99
106
112
117
115
118
122
120
123
112
118
112


1927-28 : 1928-29 : 1929-30


119 :
126
122
125 :
120
123 :
125
121
116
113
102
99
118


1CI1
101
90
110
102
107
102
99
105
90
93
77
98


2/
:3/
3/


94
95
104
106
109
108
109
105
117
107
106


Gorman Institute for Economic Research, Berlin.
/ Revised figures.
2/ Probably an error though thoro mry have been sore incrorso ovor M-rch.
3/ Estimated sub jct to revision.

Reports from the cotton iwacving industry in v.y and Juno h.ve not
.been satisfactory. New business in summer goDds as well rs lack of orders
for winter cloths, which cre usually being placed in considerablo- vtumo
at this time of the yc r, rre both contributing to the unsatisfactory
current tendency of business. It is indica.tod that the rts of activity
in cloth mills has romainod lo- throughout May and Juno following the
decline in April.


_ __ __


_I_


~








- 10 -


Cotton weaving mill activity 1/


____________ a~~~. -------


; 1925-26- : 1926-27


1927-28


1928-29 : 1989-30


: Pur cent : Por oent


: 73.9
77.4
-- 82.1
-- : 84.7
: 86.5
88.6 :87.4
85.5 89.3 :
83.3 : 91.2
78.7 1: l4
77.0 93.5
73.3 92.9
71.7 : 92.5


: Per cent : Per cent : Per cent


92.8
95.4:
93.4 :
93.1 :
93.3
93.1
92.6
92.3 :
91.1-
90.4
88.7 :
88.3 :


85.9:
86.35
87.2:
85.3:
85.6:
71.3:
71.5:
70.6:
70.8:
61.0:2/
64.5:2/
61.7:


66.2
69.5
78.1
75.6
72.8
71.6
76.1
.76.4
69,3
69.0
69.0


German Institute for. Economic Resocrch, Berlin.
1/ Up to December 1928, active looms in porcontcge of total looms in place;
since January 1929, activity in purcontage cf 9 hours shift crpr-oity.
2/ Estimated, subject to revision.

The German textile wholesale and retail trades report quiet
business in recent weeks, though thcrc is some optimism evident with re-
gard to future improve-ment. One of the mrin reasons dvrnced for the
likelihood of a pick-up is the better relationship now existing between
cotton and rool prices. The advance in.wool and the drop in cotton
have placed the Ir.tter in a much bettor competitive position than existed
highort:. The trade is also g:thoring confidence from the generally
low level of goods stocks. From a retail standpoint the outlook is not
particularly promising because of the heavy unemployment .nd the rather
unfavorable German business outlook for the immediate future, but rny
significant improvement in the cotton market in the next few weeks might
stimulate renewed interest on the part of the textile trade. Imports;
of cotton yarns for May were below April rhile imports of woven materials
were above.


C-60


Germany:


Month


Aug .............:
Sept............... :
Oct. .............. :
Nov. ..............:
Dec. .............. :
Jan. .............. :
Fob. ....... ...... :
Mar. .............. :
Apr .............
Mr.y .............. :
Juno ..............
July .............. :








- 11 -


Germrny: Imports of cotton yrrn rnd wovon mrtorials


: Cnttn y.rn 1/ _: Wvon cottcn ra.terials 2/
Month:1925- :1926- :1927- :1928- :1929- :1925- :1926- :1927- :1928- :1929-
26 : 27 : 28 29 : 30 : 26 : 27 : 28 : 29 : 30


:1,000 :1,000
:pounds pounds


: 1,000
:p unds


:1,000 :1,000 :1,000 :1,000 :1,000 :1,00' :1,000
:pounds:unds:p unds:punds:pounds:p unds:p unds


Aug. : --: 3,962: 14,240: 7,046: 6,583: --: 787: 4,277: 1,455:
Sept.: 4,500: 13,962: 7,286: 4,921: --: 794: 5,355: 1,534:
Oct. --: 4,599: 13,514: 7,842: 5,210: --: 1,380: 5,620: 2,015:
No. : --: 5,657: 12,840: 8,082: 5,600: --: 990: 5,758: 1,728:
Doc. -- 5,617: 12,879: 6,676: 5,410: --: 1,063: 5,373: 1,576:
J.n. : 5,772: 6,931: 13,252: 8,027: 5,666: 3,333: 1,594: 5,959: 2,097:
Feb. : 5,154: 8,400: 11,409: 6,303: 6,354: 2,846: 2,943: 4,363: 1,728:
M.r. : 4,899: 10,384: 10,057: 7,147: 6,111: 1,984: 3,671: 4,403: 1,757:
Apr. : 4,140: 13,488: 10,154: 6,327: 5,441: 1,351: 3,995: 3,530: 1,755:
Mcy : 3,554: 12,509: 8,823: 6,259: 5,225: 1,142: 4,687: 2,650: 1,499:
June : 4,638: 13,294: 8,093: 5,271: : 1,142: 4,824. 2,092: 1,534:
July 3,988: 12,328: 7,502: 5780: : 787:4-I 694: 2,255: 1,356:
Total: :101,669:137,325:82,046: : :31,422:51,635:20,034:


1,164
1,254
1,404
1,531
1,358
1,371
1,530
1,660
1,468
1,530


Official Foreign Trade Strtistics.
_/ No. 440 No. 444 Df the Gormrn Duty Register.
2/ No. 453-- No. 457d2.


Czechoslovuklo.

Reports on the situation in the Czechoslovakian cotton textile
industry indicate the continuance of gonerclly unsatisfactory cnditioss,
with no prospects fir any material improvement in the immediate future.

Inability to maintain expert business in the face of increasing
foreign competition and the quieter business conditions in most of the
export markets is -'n important factor in the Czechoslovrikian cotton situa-
tion.. The result hns been vn increase in the stocks of finished rnd
semi-finished goods in the hands of mills and exporters, which has led to
lower and unprofitable prices with conpotitinn growing. Reduced demand
at home as a result of the p-or general business situation and increased
unemployment has only added to the difficulties of the textile industry.
A number of mills have had to close down and there has been general cur-
tailment of production, while at a recent nmeting of Czochoslovakian
textile manufacturers it was indicr.ted th-t a further reduction of output
was necessr.ry if production r;as to be cdjustcd to present requirements.
The situation has not been improved by the dissolution in M-y of the
cotton yarn price cc.rtel in consequence of the failure of certain members
to adhere to the r.grecment, as it is generally thought th-t sharper
competition-.rid further cuts in prices will result. The industry is press-
ing for better government support in the way of foreign trade treatios
favorable to the export of cott-n goods.

The lack of conporati-n rjp.,rted in the spinning branch is less
in evidence among weavers, who r.r, reported to be working toward better
cooperation, with preparations'being r1rde for the foundation of a cloth
cartel.


__





- 12 -


Czechoslovakia: Exports'df cotton yarn and cotton fabrics

: Cotto-n yrrn, unblachoq d /h : Cotton fabrics of all kinds 2/
Month:1925- :1926- :1927- :1928- :1929- :1925- :1926- :1927- :1928- :1929-
: 26 : 27 : 28 : 29 : 30 : 26 : 27 : 28 : 29 : 30
:1,000 :1,000 :1,000 :1,000" :1,000 : 1,000 :1,.o000 ,000 :1,00 ::1,000
:pounds:pounds:pounds ::pIou.ids:pounds:pounds:pounds:pounds: pounds:pounds


Aug. --:3,252 : 5,373: 5,569:' 4,198: .-
Sept.: --: 3,038: 5,262: 3,435: 3,865:.
Oct. : --: 3,309: 4,687: 4,261i 4,173:
Nov. : -- 3,576: 4,797: 3,096: 4,462: --
Dec. : --: 3,311: 5,165: 4,072: 5,Q62:
Jan. :.2,92-1: 3,624: 4,200: 4,105: 3,926: G,164:
Feb. 2,619: 4,850: 4,453: 3,095: 4,200: 6,812:
Mar. : 2,835:. 5,604: 5,441: 4,374: 4,E83: 8,247:
Apr. : 2,440: 5,73i.: 3,C01: 4,837: 4,127: 6,076:
..y :2,286: 3,664: 3,761: 3,560: / : 4,45:
June : 2,041: 6,345: 3,812: 4,015: 3/ ,747:
July : 2,560: 5,342:5 351: 3,12: : 5,679:
Total: :53,651:53,103: 7,831:


6,903:
7,374:1


-- *
9,105: 7,476:
11,087: 9,553:


7,571: 9,224: 8,655:
6,971: 8,150: ..6,656:
6,508: 8,437: 7,612:
6,382: 6,508:.5,776:
7,498: 7,127: 5,582:
8,232: 8,638: 7,515:
7,743: 6,047: 7,829:
6,479: 5,787: 6,325:
7,196: 5,240: 5,173:
6,552: 6,312: 6,362:
85,709:91,662:85,514:


8,342
8,247
8,763
6,997
7,474
.5,745
5,851
6,557
5,734


: : :
Official Foreign Tr.deo Str tistics.
1/ No. 501 504'of the Czuchoslovakitnn Duty Rogistor.
_/ No. 527 577 "
3/ Continued decline (ostimWLtod).

Czechoslovrkir: Cotton spinning mill activity
(In pjrcontago of single shift capacity)


B3rsis spindly hours : Basis active spindlos Activity of active spindly
l:onth:1926-:1927-:1928-:1929-:1926-:1927-: 1928-:1929-:1926-:1927-:1928-: 1929-


S27: 28:
: Por : P-er :
Scant: cant:


29:


30: 27: 28: 29: 30: 27:


PFr : Per : Per :
cent: cant: cent:


87
93
98
107
104
101
10C
99
100
95
94


:1/ 68:
:2/ 90:
:3/ 89:
:4/ 95:
:5/ 94:
:6/ 94:
:7/ 93:
.: 93:
:7/ 93:
:7/ 91:
:*:


: : : (8/81:
July : 103 : 80 :(9/89:


Pr :
cent:

094-
95
95
96
96
96
95
94
93
95
90


Per : Por :
cent: dent:


89 :1/
90 :2/
91 :3/
91 :4/
92 :5/
91 :6/
91
90 :7/
90-:7/
88 :7
88 :


85:
85:
85:
87:
87:
87:
86:
86:
86:
84:


: :(8/87:
93 : 900 :(9/87:


Per :
coit:

83
91
101
105
110
113
112
115
116
118
118


28: 29: 30
Per : Per : Per
cent: cent: cent
:


114
121
120
116
116
115
115
114
112
105
105


.98
103
108
-117
115
111
110
110
iio
108
107


:1/104
:./106
:5/104
;4/110
:5/109I
:6/108
:/107
:/107
.:/107 I
:105 1
:..


: . : : (8/95:
.: 111 : 89 :(9 08


S I S : : : S:
Compiled from reports of the Gjrmarn canor-l1 Textile AssCcirticn.
1/ August 10 Scptembor 7. .5/ December 2 Decomber 28. -
2/ September 8 October 5. _/ December 29 Jrnuary 25,
3/ Octcbor 6 Novomber 2. 7/ Estimatod: subject to revision.
4 November 3 November 30. 8/ Junu 15 July 7. .
9/ July 14 August 10. .. .
*' "*'. .1i


C-60


Aug. ;
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mr r.
Apr.
MayJ
Juno :


63
70
80
90
97
98
101
105
108
110
110


107
115
114
111
111
110
109
108
105
100
95


...... ..: .:.. . .. .... :........ .. . .. .. .. .. ... ......:..,, :i ". IS. fw . .iW ..'.. *-


" u w L .. ... .,...... .








- 2.3 -


Austria

No intorial chr.ngo in the 'position of tho ..ustrirn cotton
toxtilo industry hrs bain cvid..:Lt during MyCy ?nd Juno. Nor orders placed
with the nrnufacturing indutr:, have boon limited during-this period, nnd
trade reports indicetu continue: tion of hrnd-to-mouth business. A revision
of tho Austrian tariff on cott r goods, which foresees r considerable in-
creaso in the rates for both yrrn and fabrics, is thought likely to stimu-
late domestic business scriorthat if the increases rivtorirlize.

Austria: CztL;n u'inning nill activity
(Percontcgo of "full ccprcity") 1/


Month-


:19 l-23:1923-24:1924-25:1925-26:1926-27:1927-2 ': 128-29:1929-30
, ,


: Pc
: cen

Aug. .........
Sept .. ...... :
Oct. .......... :
Nov. ......... :
Dec. .........:
Jan. .........
Feb. .........
MIar. .........
Apr. .........:
May ..........:
Juno .........
July ........ :


r
It :







55
57
59
59
58
62 :
59 :


Per
cent

59
63
63
64
66
70
70
74
72
67
64
66


Per
.cent

57
68
7C
69
78
77
80
75
75
70
76
79


Per
cent

76
79
85
91
87
81
85
79
75
67
62
72


: Per
' cent

S 57
S 60
S 65
76
: 75
: 75
: 79
82
86
S 85
S 82
87


Por :
cent '

90
85
85
83
82
83
81
81
78
73
76
73


r : Per
cent : cent

76 : 73
75 : 76
79 : 7
74 : 77
80 : 78
82 81
83 : 73
84 : 77
84 : 72
80 :2/ 72
74 :2 71
73


Compiled from reports of the


Austrian Institute for Econonic Rosevrch.


/"Full capacity" nar.ns boutt 125 por cent of -)st-w\r single shift ce.pcity.
/ Estirmted, subject to rovisi.n.


C-60


l







C-60


Austria: Exports of cotton yrrn to Germany L/


; 1926-27


* 1927328


.:1,000 pour is:1,C0 pounds 1,000 pounds 1,00 pounds:1,000 pounds

Aug. ...... ... 139 551 201 :73
Sept. .......: : 165 : 317 176 : 37
Oct. .........: 132 :245 :157 29
Nov. *......: : 148 :240 : 134 95
Dec. .........: 159 223 : 214 :66
Jan. .........: 664 : 243 : 163 : 101 84
Feb. .........: 494 : 476 :260 :88 :104
Mar. .........: 331 558 : 220 :73 :128
Apr. ..,......: 331 : 694 203 : 106 :121
May ..........: -243 : 624 : 340 : 84 :64
June .........: .203 456 : 243 : 40
.July .........: .194 : 355 : 293 :: 112 :
Total ........: : 4,149 : 3,298 :: 1,486 :
Compiled from official foreign trrdo statistics.
1_/ Five representative positions, i. .. sections 440:a-0 of the-German duty
register.

Hungary

Reports from the Hungarian cotton industry indicate increased
business in yarn during June, following somewhat quieter developments.in
the preceding month. The lower cotton prices prevailing are mentioned
as an important stimulating influence.

All branches of the Hungarian cotton industry are now..indicated
to be doing rather active business, distributors as well as converters.
Consumer demand for summer fabrics, as well as the placing of orders by
the trade for winter goods, have apparently been stimulated by the
approach of the harvest season, and the increased inquiry has been
passed along to cloth establishments in turn to be reflected in increased
takings from the spinning mills.

The favorable condition enjoyed by the Hungarian textile in-
dustry, in the face of depression in most other countries, is due, of
course, to the fact that the country is on an import basis and the in-
dustry well protected. Recently published data for 1929 indicate that
Hungarian mills produced about 62 per cent of the country's yarn require-
ments and 80 per cent of the cloth and finished goods.

Franco

The French cotton industry has maintained previous high levels
of activity during May and most of Juno, according to all reports, though
information from spinning centers indicate rather calm business and weaker
prices since the latter port of May. It is stated that there has been
sane tendency for yarn stocks to accumulate, though as yet apparently
not of serious proportions.


Ai


- 14 -


Month


S1925-26


: 1928-29


:1929-30









- 1 -


Reports from the principal cloth manufacturing canters evidence
considerable variation in the ch.rzct ,. of business during this period,
but demand hr.s evidently boon gonorvel1 better than in the cnse of yarn,
end good prospects arc reported for trade with some of the i portent
colonial markets, particularly North Africa. Therv is somo complaint
th-t new bookings rro on a smfllor scale than previously and that buyers
are showing reticence bocvuso of the expectation that goods' prices will
adapt themselves to the lower levols prevailing for raw mntorir-l.

Italy

Conditions in the It-li-.n cotton textile industry have taken
a definitely less f.vor-.blj turn since early MIy, vith orders on hrnd,
sales end mill activity co-pping to somewhat lower levels. As a result,
the demand for rai: cott'n. as become dull and, even -t times of active
pruchasos by other count-'is, has romrined very limited.

Mill sales of cotton yr.rn hvo recently boon much belor. pro-
duction and considerably bolo:' lcst ycvr. As a result, yarn stocks in
the mills have increased to above the level of 2 yocr ago, vnd spinning
mill activity rs well as weaving mill occupation have dropped off since
the beginning of the yeor. Operations in both branches are no-. somewhat
belo7 last yrer, though by no means seriously reduced. Unfilled orders
on hnnd rro elso under last yorr's l)vcel.

Italy: Cotton spinning "nd weaving mill activity


Spinning mill activity _/ Weaving mill activity /
Month : :
: -1927-28 : 1928-29 : 129-30 : 1927-28 : 1928-29 : 1929-30
: Par cent : Per cent : P. cant : Per cent : Per cent : Per cent

Aug. .......: -- 90.9 : 93.1 : -- : 85.6 : 88.6
Sept. ......: -- 92.7 94.2 : -- 86.2 : 89.8
Oct. .......: 94. : 95.3 : -- 87.9 : 89.8
Nov. .......: -- : 95. :/ 95.0 : -- 90.7:3/ 89.5
Dec. .......: -- : 96.6 :95.5 : -- 92.3 : 90.6
Jan. ......: -- : 95. : 93.4 : -- : 91.5 : 89.1
Feb. .......: 93.0 : 5. : 91.3 : 89.3 : 91.2 : 88.0
Mar. .......: 91.8 : 96.3 : 87.9 : 89.1 : 91.9 85.7
Apr. .......: 92.b : 95.2 / 87.5 : 89.0 : 92.5 :3/ 85.5
May .......: 94.7 : 96.2 :3/ 87.0 : 88.6 : 92.0 : 8/ 85.0
Juno .......: 91.7 : 94.3 : 85.4 :91.0
July ......: 91.1 : 92.6 : : 85.1 90.7

Compiled from Bollctino Monsile di Stntistica del Regno d'Itrlia.
1/ Spinning activity in percentage of full crpr.city, bcsis spindle hours.
2/ Weaving activity in percentage of full c-'pocity, basis loom hours.
3/ Estimated, subject to revision.


C-60






C-60
Poland .. -16 -

Mry a-nd Juno reports on conditions in. the Polish cotton textile industry
confirm previous expectations. The reduced working hours recor..mended by
the spinners' cartel have been r.i.intoie&d and spinners continue to operate,
on an average, one .shift six -clds a week. lj Prcuaction, in fact, has now
been increased sli-htly, but fi.ares: of the cartel indicate that yarn sales
have risen more then the output, -so th,-.t stocks in tie mills arc being re-
duced further. Yarn stocks, as well as stocks of finished goods, are now
consi-dcrod ]r.:iorr.to in Poland, a fact that furnishes a basis for a more hope-
ful outlook, es;-.cially with some record for successful control of output
bac: of the industry.

J.pan

Conditions continue unsatisfactory in the textile industry in Japan
according to Consul Dickover ..t Kobe. Despite a norminal 17 per cent restric-
tion of output, yarn production in Mvy amounted to 220,000 bales, only 11
per cent below the peak production of Decmiber. Mills have decided,' thore-
fore, on further restrictions of 10 per cent from Juno 16th. In spite of
this restriction yarn prices -have fallen oand mills are estimated to be operat-
ing at a loss. Local Governmlent authorities are advisi-n aGainst further
closing; down for fopr of serious labor troubles. Clothl production for May
reeinaincd jnchanlgd, bat exports were 26 per -dent below March and 4 per cent
below April.

China

At Sharnchai, according to Agricultural Commissioner Nyhus, the local
cotton yarn ~a rket contiued-weCrl furin:: xid first half of June due to
. disturbed conditions in the interior. .Stocks .re accuwm-lating in Ch'.inese
nills out there has beon no curta.ilunc.t of spinning; operations. Jap-nese
mills, however, are sold out up to Octobcr ando November.

Very little now business :has recently been done in American cotton direct-
ly with An.erica. The rCquiremoents of local Ja.panese rills-for the sumner
months have becn covered by purchases of Aiericen cotton: t-Osaka, Jt"pan
where spot prices h-.avc becn lower th'A- on: th1cNew York r.arket. A locrl .nori-
can i:mporter states that new crop business is in the sane-situation. He
reports very low al.d unprofitable prices for yarn in Japan rnad-unsatisfactory
conditions and outlook in the industry in general in Ja.i -Bu.siness in piece
Coods continues in small lots and on a hand to mouth basis, Local prices ha.ve
advanced but rei-ain for below replacement costs at th[3 .-'. zsnt-very loT silver
exchange. In view of the barrenness of stocks- in thc i.cuirior it is felt that
local prices will continue to improve but cunsidcr-ble l.'vnces-' .st be made to
cover rcelaccioant costs a.nd to permAit forward busi-noss in- nny-volumo.



The n.rket for Japanese grny shootings reo.iained very slat durinC the weak
onded lIay 10 with prices declining. Demand on the whole was ncgligible as
importers continued to buy conservatively. During the wc c ended May 17 the
market was cclm b-t firm /with no price fluctuations. Both local ind foreign de-
maid was very moderate. (Assistaent Con ~orcial Attache Ralph F. ChesbrouGh, Cairo

I/ Two shifts wore recgrdcd a normal occupation in Poland during the past
years.








0-60


India

The following state.cent comrJarus tie production of cotton piecc
goods woven in Indian mills with the .imports of such goods from foreign
countries for the ten moLths oi.dod Jcanary, 1929 and 1930: 1/

I _tm : T mn m t'-: n-idin JW.anuary
It: 1929 : 1930
:Production : Imports : Production : Iports
1 000 yards : 1000 yards : 1000 yards :1000 .yards

Grey and Bleached : 1,504,485 : 1,149,532 : 1,145,085 : 1,141,835
Colored : 492,381 396,265 : 377,813 428,183
Totel : 1,990,866 : 1545,797 :1,522,893 : 1,570,018

It may be seen from this Table t.at the production for the ten months
ending J:'nuary 1930 was consicerabiy below that for the saeo period a year
earlier while the imports are above those for the previous year. T:iis in-
crease in imports may have bec'.i a result of the a-ticip.ted higher tariff on
imports.

Philippine Islands

Business in Aricrican textiles continued Lunsatisfactory durinG May.
General conditions in the Philippine textile mc.rkct remained unsatisfactory
from the Amrrican textile importers' viewpoint during May while dealers.in
Japanese textiles continued to do a satisfactory business at a reported
profit. Local American textile dealers are watching credits carefully cl-
though business is extremely difficult to secure. Japanose rayons continued
to be an important factor in the trade, exerting a serious influence on the
demand for cotton piece goods. May arrivals of cotton piece goods from
Japan, as per manifest, were 2,327 cases as against -107 cases of rayon or
silk Goods. Local dealers expressed surprise over the large proportion of
cotton piece goods and are inclined to think the figures are erroneous. Total
arrivals of textiles of all classes from the United States during May
amounted to 2,921 cases; from Europe, to 568; and.from Shanghai, only 88
cases. (Radiocram from Trade Commissioner E. D. Hcster, Minila, June 19.)

1/ From weekly Bulletin leo. 372-B Textile Division, Bureau of Foreign and
Domestic Corm.ierce.


- 17 -





U;


C-60


- 18 -


PRODUCTION, ACREAGE AND CROP CONDITION REPORTS


United States

Acreage Report. The Crop Reporting Board of the United States Department of
Agriculture, from the reports and data furnished by crop correspondents, field
statisticians, cooperating State Boards (or Departments) of Agriculture and
Agricultural Colleges, makes the following estimate of COTTON acreage in culti-
vation July 1, 1930. (Released July 8.)


U. S. ACRE.&.E IN CULTIVYTIONI COMPARED WITH IJST YE.-R 97.3
U. S. ACRES IN CULTIVATION, TOTuL 45,815,000 acres.


per cent.


Estimate of cot;..on acreage, by States

: -rea in cultivation
10-yr. avor.
State July 1, 1929 July 1, 1930 abandonment
: : ecrcntage : : 1920 1929
Acres Lcres
: of 1929
:Thousands : For cent : Thousands : Per cent

Va. .. .... : 89 101 90 :.0
N. C. . . . . : 1,916 : 90 : 1,724 : 1.6
S. C. . . . : 2,273 : 97 : 2, 5 2.7
Ga. . . . . 3,818 100 : 3,818 : 3.6
Fla. . . . . : 96 : 110 : 106 : 5.2

o. . . . .. . 348 : 110 : 383 : 4.8
Tenn. . . . . 1,147 : 107 : 1,227 : 2.2
. . .. . .. : 3,727 : 98 : 3,652 : 1.7
Miss. . . . .... : 4,229 : 102 : 4,314 : 2.6
La. . . . . 2,135 : 97 : 2,071 2.8
Tex. . . . .. : 18,229 : 96 17,500 : 3.8

Okla. . . . . 4,430 92 : 4,076 : 6.7
rk. .. . . . : 3,933 102 : 4,012 8.5
N. Mex. . . . . 132 10 : 133 : / 10.6
-riz. 2/ . . . . 227 93 212 : 1.6
Calif. .... : 319 86 : 273 1.7
..11 other ... 19 100 : 19 :j/ 4.6

U. S. total . . : 47,067 : 97.3 : 45,815 : 3.5

Lower Calif. : : :
(Old Mexi co) /... 151 67 101 : 1.3
i/ EiPht-vor.r avcrrao. 1922-1929.


2/ Including Pima Egyptian long steplo


cotton estimated at 46,000 acres this


year compared with 67,000 Lcrcs in cultivation July 1, 1929.
3/ NOT included in Californic figures, NOR in United Stttes total.







0-60


The Board rmade. tlhe fol .. .y i.;.u..rc:t3:

"The n.crco-e of cotton in culti-. -tion in ti.l United States on July 1
is estin-tcd by the Crop Reporting B. -rd '. be 1-5,815,000 acres, which is
2.7 per cent less tha: the acrea:e on July 1, 1929, 2.4 per cent less than
in 1928, r-ld 6 per cent below t-. record acro-eo of 48,730,000 pl-Atcd in
1926.

"T'h estimate relate to ccre -cc .tandinc; on July 1, allowance c.ving
been ma do for any acreage which was abandoned prior to that date an.d for
any acrea-;e roplantod and in cultivation on that date.

"The acrceae in Texas is ti. nir.ated at 96 per cent of last ;'car's .crc-
r-mo a -d in Oklahoma, acroeag is astirCttod at 92 1or cent of 1929. North
Carolina sh.-uw the largest perc:..ltacg decrease of any State in the Cotton
Belt proper. The estimated acr.oge in that State is 90 per cent of last
ye.r. Other major cotton produci:-g States which show smaller acrec-;c th.;
in 1929 are South Carolina and Louisianru., 97 per cent cach and Alab.rua,
98 per cent. The acreage in Georgia is estii.ated to be the snoe as last
year. In Misssissppi and Arkansas t>lc crcoace is given at 102 per cent of
1929; Tennessee, 107 per cent; and Missouri 110 per cent.

"The acrecge of Pima Egyptian long-staple cotton in Arizona is esti;l-.t-
ed at 46,000 acres this year compared with 67,000 acres in cultivation July
1, 1929.

"No report on probable cotton production is made by the Board until
Au:ust. At that tine tihe production forccast will be based on the forecast
yield per harvested acre applied to the acrcage in cultivation on July 1,
less averoce abandoni.int in each State aftcr that d.at."

Suimmry of Weather Reports. Rainfall threo'-out the cotton belt during June
was somnowhat bclow normal, but it should be remembered that M;,r had bcen a
little too wet over a good portion of the Bolt. Considerable areas in the
east, however, had moderate rainfall during the last we.l: of June. The
temperature during the first half of Juno was gncoerrLly too cool. Warncr
weather during. the last two weeks was mostly favorable for the cotton crop,
though in some regions hot dry winds wore reported as damaging the young
crop. From the st.adpoint of moisture aria temperature together the weather
during June was sliJitly unfavorable for the best development of cotton
but generally favorable the la.'; half. Conditions were mostly favorable
for cultivation.

Russia 1/

The Russian cotton planting ccnpai,;n is :ow almost completed, witi the
total acrcage sow:n to June. 10 reported as vxounting to 4,183,103 acres, or
about 63 per cent more than last year. Govcrnm.en-t "plans" for about a 50
per cent increase, therefore, have been executed to the full extent a.d
even exceeded. The final success of the planting campaign is the larger and
1/ Mr. Steer's report.


- 19 -




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IllIlllll lIlI Ill1llll hII AI ll E l hl
3 1262 08863 1279

C-60 20
more surprising when it is considered that polntings developed threateningly
slowly up to the middle of May, with only about 50 and 60 per cent of the
plannedd" acro~e having been planted by May 10 and May 15, respectively. :
Spurred on by strenuous ecferts nf local organizations and an oeergetic proseF" ',
campaign, plmntin-s picked up considerably thorcfter and by May 25 the plan 'il ..
was reported executed to the full extent for the Union as a'whole. It is
likely that a downward revision of the above .entiorod ficuros will take.
place, following a statistical survey now in process. Nevertheless, the
acreage will still be grcatly above that of last year.

It is carly for forecasts of the 1930 cotton production, but on the .
basis of the average yield per acre of cotton for the four years 1925-1928,
the yield on the acreage reported planted to Jieo 10 would r.mount to about "
2,029,000 balos of 478 pounds net or about 58 per cent above the 1929-40 cro.i*:,,
However, a very considerable share of the area has been sownr late, with cons6. :0i.
sequent d:;Gor of erly frosts reducing the yield. In addition, reports at.
present spekl of poor preparation for hoeing, etc., with a shortage of labor'..
in some sections an important factor. Poor organization of water distrib ",-.
tion, rosultin, in delayed and insufficient irriGation in some cases, is l
being courplaiod of, as well as the rapid appearance of weeds. Those fatdof ,
are unfavorable for increased yields, so it is possible that those overnmont <-|'NE
plans, which foresee a laro; increase in the ield, will not be realized. '
Nevertheless, weather conditions at th%. end of MHy wore reported favorable to
cotton plants, and the difficulties mentioned ray be considerably vJlloviated i ii
by efforts of the organizations concerned.


According to cables received from the International Institute of A i
turo the condition of the SCkcllaridis crop during; Mpy was given as lop 10P
cent and during Juno as 99 per cent. The condition of all other varieties
given as 100 per cent for May and 102 per cent for June. The condition.
June 1929 was 99 per cent for Sakellaridis and 100 per cent for all oth rU
100 per cent represents the average condition for the past ten years.

China

Agricultural Corrissioner Nyhus reports that better than usual ra.ifi7 ilN :'
April and May cand favorable conditions for cotton planting bhave beon rcP~pOrl|7
for Western Honan and for Shensi Provinces. This region produces the b
quality of Chiniese cottons which are capable of toaidn the place of cer i
qualities of Amorican cotton. In the Ycngtze Valley and on the Great Pl ki
early growing conditions have likewise boon favorable.


I


r


U.S. DEPOSITORY


,ZI~C~R1F~~~p~


--


"I


i :