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STANDARD VIEW MARC VIEW
"TatI; ,: .a :lDU- OG ANDO P,1X: PROSPICTS
**~i. S u m a y
Slaughter supplies of hogs In the United States during the marketing
igB.h.agan October 1, are expected to be considerably larger than
-Al'ti last 2 years, but much smaller than average. Because of short
l l l 4 plpl S. it is probable that there will be a decided tendency to
_1h.. P _4 earlier than usual this fall and winter, causing slaughter
"MWirom October to mid-January to be large in relation to supplies
t l4 auzm~sa ainder of the 1936-37 marketing year. Some further seasonal
1t 14 prices is mnow in prospect. From December through March,
,:.. U ithe trend in domestic prices is expected to be generally upward.
With larger slaughter supplies of hogs in the United States in
1; efla*t for the first half of the 1936-37 marketing year. it is
That exports of hog products will increase somewhat in this
In the last half of 1936-37, however, the probable smaller
; "tc nhog slaughter is likely to result in a level of exports no greater
than in the last half of 1935-36.
'Latest hog census data show total hog numbers in the most important
b I producing countries of Europe to be approximately 5 percent higher at
l t beginning of the 1936-37 hog year than at the same time a year earlier.
f1 the United Kingdom, however, hog numbers have declined. It is probable
thiat a e modification of the British Pig Scheme will be made.. possibly
tooempanied by an increase in pork import quotas for 1937 and the imposition
at t~ t l on oured pork.
iiii .S. = .....
The marked increase in hog production in Germany will be an out-
standing feature in the coming hog marketing year in continental Europe.
No pork surplus in Germany is expected to develop, however, since there
is a shortage in cattle. Germany will no doubt continue to import hogs,
lard, and fatbacks, as wall as buef, but only in quantities for which the
supplying countries can accept payment in German goods.
Hog numbers in the Danube Basin, in contrast to those of other
surplus producing countries in Central Europe, are now considerably
smaller than those of a year earlier. Exports from this area in the
coming winter and spring are expected to be somewhat smaller than those
of last winter and spring. The large corn and barley crops harvested in
the Basin this year, however, have given rise to a strong demand for
feeder hogs, and it is anticipated that increased supplies of fat hogs
and lard will be available for ex ort in the summer and fall of 1937.
Slaughter supplies of hogs during the current marketing year
(October 1, 1936 to September 30, 1937) will be considerably larger than
for either of the 2 previous marketing years but will be much smaller
than the average of the 5 years preceding 1934-35. Hog slaughter under
Federal inspection in 1935-36 in number of head was but little different
from the slaughter in 1934-35, but in total live and dressed weight it
was larger because average weights were heavier.
Hogs: Inspected slaughter, 'average and total live weight,
Sand average cost, 5-yoer average, 1934-35
Year :Inspected: Live weight 2/ Av. price
beginning :slaughterAerge : Total : per 100 pounds
Oct. : /
: 1,000 .Million
: head Pounds pounds Dollars
Av. 1929-30 to
1933-34 .....: 45,354 230 10,429 5.71
1934-35 .....: 30,680 220 6,742 7.75
1935-36 .....: 31,022 232 7,187 9.78
/ Bureau Animal IndusBureau of Animal2/Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
How many more hogs will be slaughtered under Federal inspection
during the present marketing year than in the previous year will depend
to a considerable extent upon the size of the 1936 fall pig crop The
1936 spring pig crop for the entire country was larger than the very small
spring crop of 1935 by 9,000,000 head, or 29 percent. The June pig crop
report indicated an increase of 14 percent in the number of sows to farrow
in the fall of 1936. In June, when the report was issued, prospects
were favorable for at least an average corn crop in the Corn Balt States.
Hog prices were at a very high level and the hog-corn price ratio was
quite favorable for an expansion in hog production. Within a few weeks
after the report was issued, however, the situation was changed entirely.
Corn crop prospects dwindled rapidly as severe drought spread over most
of the Corn Belt. As corn prospects declined, prices of corn increased
and the hog-corn price ratio shifted from a favorable to a distinctly
unfavorable level, even though hog prices also made a substantial advance
during the sane period. As a result of this changed situation, hog
producers began to dispose of brood sows that had farrowed in the spring,
as well as those intended for fall farrow, and all other hogs that could
be quickly finished for marketing. This resulted in greatly increased
marketing of hogs in July, August, and September.
Estimates given in the June pig crop report as to the number of
hogs over 6 months old on June 1 this year coL:.-.rod with a year earlier,
indicated that only a miodor.te increase in slaughter was to be expected
during the 4 months June to Sopte:ibcr. Actually, however, slaughter
under Federal inspection was 51 percent larger in this period than a year
earlier. This large ir.crease in slaughter was a result of the large
marketing of sows originally intended for fall farrowing, supplemented
by relatively early nov-ement of 1936 spring pigs. In view of this hoavy
liquidation, it scjms fairly certain that thc number of sows to farrow
this fall will be substantially sr-.iller th!.n the number farrowud in 1935,
although probably not so small as that in the fall of 1934.
Hog prices declined after mid-Septomber in response to a seasonal
increase in rarketings, but near the end of the or.nth and during early
October they made some recovery. Because of s. ort feed supplies there
will be a decided tendency to market hogs earlier than usual this fall
and winter, thus causing slaughter supplies fro; October to mid-January
to be large in relation to supplies in tih rei.:ainder of the 1936-37
marketing year. Some further seasonal decline in prices is in respect.
From December through March the price i..ovLment is expected to be generally
Tho average price of hogs at Chicago declined fro.1 $10.26 per
100 pounds the second week in Septei.iber to $9.38 in the fourth week,
but recovered to $9.84 in the week endLd October 10. Prices of butcher hogs
began to decline in late August and dro;jod steadily for 5 weeks bufcro
the decline was checked. Prices of packing sows did not bogin to decline
until rid-Septerbor. The avorage ,1rico of hogs at Chicago for the month
of September w-.s $9.89 cor.:-arod with $10.06 in August .-.nd $10.95 in
September last yoar.
Hog slaughter under Federal inspection in September, totaling
2,403,000 head, was 7 percent larger than that in August and 65 percent
larger than the unusually small slaughter of September 1935. The increase
in slaughter in September over a year earlier was greater relative to the
increases recorded in ot.ier recent months and reflected liquidation of
both packing sows and early spring pigs.
Market prices of corn advanced sharply during the first 2 weeks of
September, but declined near the end of the month to the lowest level since
July. Although the average price of No. 3 Yellow corn at Chicago was
lower in September than in ;ugust, the average farm price on September 15
was slightly higher than that of a Lonth earlier. Based on farm prices
on the 15th of the month, the hog-corn price ratio in the North Central
States was 9.5 in both September -and August, cor:pared with 14.4 in
September 1935. The ratio is expected to continue unfavorable to hog
reductionn at least until the late winter or spring of 1937.
The average weight of hogs marketed continued the decline which
began in late August, and in late September they were far below those of
a year earlier. The increasing proportion of light spring pigs marketed
was responsible for much of the decrease in the average weight of all
butcher hogs. The growing scarcity of well-finished niogs indicates'a
considerable decrease in average hog weights during the next several
months. Average weights in the next 3 months uay be as low -s in late
1934 when the average for all hogs slaughtered under Federal inspection
declined to about 210 pounds. The average weight of hogs at the seven
leading markets in SepteLlber was 232 pounds compared with 256 pounds in
August and 250 pounds in September 1935.
Wholesale prices of fresh pork continued to rise in early
September and in the week ended September 12 they reached the highest
level since mid-August 1935. With the increase in hog marketing toward
the end of September, however, prices of fresh pork declined rather sharply.
Prices of cured pork vere lower i. September than in August and lard
prices also showed some weakness. The composite wholesale price of
the principal hog products at New York was $22.18 per 100 pounds in
September coi..p.red with $21.94 in August and $25.79 in September a year
The United States exports of both pork and lard in August showed a
decrease from those of July. Pork exports in August were about 34 percent
below those of July, and 10 percent below those of the corresponding month
a year earlier. The decrease was mainly in cured pork exports with the
decline in shipments of hams and shoulders to the United Kingdom
accounting for most of it. Exports of hams and shoulders in August,
totaling 3,642,000 pounds, were 45 percent below those of July and 24
percent lower than for the same month in 1935.
Exports of lard during August were 19 percent smaller than in
July but 76 percent larger than the record low level for the sane month
a year earlier. The last reduction in the Cuban imnort duty on lard and
the elimination of the 1-cent per pound consumption tax on American lard,
both of which were provided for in the Cuban trade agreement, became
effective on SeptoLber 3. The reduction of the duty and consumption tax
combined amounted to $1.41 per 100 pounds.
With larger slaughter su.plios of hogs in the United States in
prospect for the first half of the 193.6-37 marketing year, it is
probable that exports of hog products will increase somewhat in this period.
In the last half of 1936-37, however, the probable smaller domestic
hog slaughter is likely to result in a level of exports no greater than
in the last half of 1935-36.
After reaching the high point for the year of $9.57 American currency
in the week ended August 13, hog prices at Toronto declined to $8.97
in the week ended Septerber 3, and to $8.00 in the week ended October 1.
The average price for the 4 weeks ended October 1 was $8.52 co... ared with
$9.21 for the last 4 weeks in August and $9.30 a year earlier. Heavier
marketings were chiefly responsible for the lower hog prices in September.
The increase in hog Liarketings in Seo-tenber over August this year
was much greater than in 1935. The'number of hogs graded in the 4 weeks
ended October 1 was 271,000, an increase of 18 percent above the last
4 weeks of August and 45 percent above the corresponding 4 weeks of
September last year. Gradings of live hogs and hog carcasses in Canada
for the 1935-36 hog marketing year fro:. October to Settember aur.unted to
3,326,000 head, an increase of 10 percent above the same period of 1934-35.
Exports of bacon fro., Canada to the United Kingdom in the
11 months of the hog marketing year up to August 31 1936 aMounted to
122,025,000 pounds, an increase of 3 percent above the sa.e ;eriod of
1934-35. Pork exports to the United Kingdom amounting to 896,000 pounds
were almost twice as largo as in the same 11-month period of last year,
and lard exports, .totaling to 23,660,000 pounds, were three ties as
large as in the sane period of 1934-35. Bacon exports to the United
Kingdom in August amounted to 11,535,000 pounds, a decrease of 12 percent
frou July, but an increase of 40 percent compared with August 1935.
Hog Numbers in European Countries
Latest hog census data show total hog numbers in the i-.ost icmortant
hog-producing countries of Europe to be approximately 5 percent higher
at the beginning of the 1936-37 hog year than at the s-.-,e time last year.
Outstanding among the increases in hog production is the marked'upturn in
hog numbers in Gormany. The number of hogs in Gera.ny in early September,
totaling about 25,900,000 head was 14 percent larger than a year earlier
and the largest number ever ro orted for that country. An appreciable
increase in numbers has also taken .lace ini Denm:ark, and a si.all incrLase
in the Netherlands, both being in;ortint surplus producing countries.
In Hungary, however, hog numbers have declined. Hog numbers in the British
Isles, the nost important deficit area in Europe, hiavo also been slightly
reduced. The increased numbers in Donmark and Ger:.any however, more than
offset the declines which have occurred in other countries.
Germany: Number of hogs on farms, September 4, 1936 with comparisons
1 4 : under
1932 : 6,326 10,341
1933 2/: -
1934 : 6,348 10,594
1935 : 5,853 9,684
1936 : 6,624 11,042
: Hogs 6 mos. to 1 yr. : Hogs
: : Brood sows :
:Slaugh-: :In far- :Slaugh-:
: ter :Total :row(preg-: ter
: hogs : : nant) : hogs :
Thou- Thou- Thou- Thou-
sands sands sands sands
over 1 yr.
over 1 yr.
Brood sows :Grand
:In far- :total
Total :row(preg-: i/
: nant) :
Thou- Thou- Thou-
Compiled from cable from Agricult-ral Commissioner, H. E. Reed, and original
I/ Includes boars.
2/ No September estimate available for 1933.
Denmark: Official August 29, 1936 estimate of hog numbers onfarms
compared with periodical estimates in 1935 and 1936
:Boars : Brood sows
4 : : Not:
:months: In : in
:over : :
:Thou- Thou- Thou-
:sands sands sands
Oct. 5, 1935
Nov. 16, 1935
Dec. 28, 1935
Feb. 8, 1936
Mar. 21, 1936
May 2, 1936
June 13, 1936
July 18, 1936
Aug. 29, 1936
: Other hogs (new classification)
: 132 : 77 :Under :Suck- :
:pounds: to : 77 :ling
Total: and :132 :pounds:pigs : Total
: over :pounds: ::
Thou- Thou- Thou- Thou- Thou- Thou-
sands sands sands sands sands sands
Compiled from-Statistiske Efterretninger, published by the Statistical Depart-
ment of Denmark,- and reports from Agricultural Commissioner H. E. Reed, United
States Department of Agriculture.
United Kingdom and Irish Free State
Considerable uncertainty as to the future trend of bacon-hog pro-
duction in Great Britain is felt at the present time. The British Pig Scheme,
designed to bring about expansion of the domestic hog and bacon industry,
has failed to achieve its purpose. For a time producers expanded production
in expectation of greater profits, but with contract prices averaging lower
than market prices the tendency recently has been to curtail hog production.
The June hog census revealed that a decline in hog numbers had occurred
compared with a year earlier. Northern Ireland was the only part of Great
Britain to show an increase. It is probable thctt some modification of the
Pig Scheme will be made, possibly accompanied by an increase in pork import
quotas for 1937 and the imposition of tariffs on cured pork, although the
exact nature and extent of the changes to be made are as yet unknown.
Unusually high bacon prices, as reflected by Liverpool quotations,
characterized the British cured-pork market during September. Danish Wiltshire
sides averaged $22.45 per 100 pounds, $3.78 above the September 1935 figure
and the highest September average since 1929. Canadian green sides at
$19.92 per 100 pounds, although registering some decline from the average
of August, were $2.57 above the September 1935 figure. American green
bellies, at $17.63 per 100 pounds, made the highest monthly average since
December 1930. Ham prices, in contrast to bacon prices, have declined since
the first of August. Ham prices in September averaged $19.45 per 100 pounds,
compared with $20.58 in August and $22.96 in September 1935.
Total imports of bacon into the United Kingdom, amounting to nearly
65,000,000 pounds, were the highest in August of any month this season.
For the first 11 months of the 1935-36 season, however, total imports of bacon
were about 7 percent less than those of a year earlier. Imports from Denmark
during the season to August 31 amounted to about 360,000,000 pounds compared
with 402,000,000 pounds in the corresponding period of 1934-35. Imports of
about 97,000,000-pounds from Canada, for the season to August 31, were 2
percent below those for the corresponding period a year earlier. Imports
from the Irish Free State for the first 11 months of the season,on the other
hand, amounted to about 50,000,000 pounds, nearly 12 percent more than
comparable 1935 imports.
Imports of ham declined during August from the relatively high level
of imports for July. The total of 71,000,000 pounds for the October-August
period, nevertheless, was slightly larger than imports of ham in the corre-
sponding period of 1934-35. Ham imports from the United States during the
11 months were considerably smaller than those of a year earlier, although in
August there was a substantial increase over August 1935. Ham imports from
Canadaz on the other hand, were maintained at a considerably higher level
during 1935-36 than in any recent marketing year. Imports from the Irish Free
State, although not large, exceeded all previous records.
Liverpool quotations on refined lard during September were fairly
steady at the advanced level attained in July, averaging about $13.58 per
100 pounds. Lard imports into the United Kingdom from all sources amounted
to less than 153,000,000 pounds for the first 11 months of the season, and
were 22 percent under those of a year ago. The amount imported during
August from the United States was the lowest for any month since last
October, and the total for the season to August 31 was 52 percent below
October-August 1935 figures. Canadian shipments of lard to the United
Kindom, however, have been running consistently higher than during previous
Total fat supplies in Great Britain have not been reduced during the
period of smaller lard imports, margarine production having increased
sufficiently to offset the decline. A continuation of the reduced lard
imports will no doubt increase further the United Kingdom's takings of raw
materials for margarine production. This partial shift from lard to
substitute fats in the United Kingdom has not as yet reached a stage where
lard is at a permanent disadvantage. Should the reduction in lard supplies
continue for a period of years, however, it is quite likely that the British
people would become so accustomed to other fats that lard prices would have
to be reduced below those of other fats in order to move any such quantities
of lard as have been sold in the United Kingdom in previous years.
Countries Important in British Market Supplies
Denmark is entering the 1936-37 hog marketing year with an appreciable
hog surplus, and will be more thon able to supply Great Britain with quota
requirements and any extra quotas which may come with a change in British
policy. The moderate increase in hog production in the Netherlands is ex-
pected to yield ample supplies for domestic market needs, with an increased
surplus for export. Uncertainty exists regarding Polish hog numbers. Hog
prices have been relatively high compared with feed prices for the last 12
months in Poland, and conditions have been favorable for increased hog
production. The great increase in Polish hog slaughter, which has occurred
during the last year, however, indicates that marketing of hogs may have
exceeded any increase in production resulting from the favorable hog-feed
price ratio. Regardless of developments in hog numbers, Poland may be
expected to export fully as much in the present marketing year as in the
last, chiefly because of her need for foreign exchange.
Continental European Importing Countries
The marked increase in hog production in Germany will be the outstand-
ing feature in the coming hog year in continental Europe. Hog numbers, which
were about 22,700,000 on September 4, 1935, increased to nearly 25,900,000
in September this year. The number reported was larger than in September of
both 1934 and 1931, when the total number was also over 25,000,000 head.
Under ordinary conditions, this number would result in a pork surplus, al-
though it does not provide sufficient fats to meet Germany's domestic needs.
This year no pork surplus is expected to ensue, largely because of a shortage
Germany will no doubt continue to import hogs, lard, and fatbacks, as
well as beef, but only in quantities for which the supplying countries can
accept payment in German goods. Such developments are in keeping with the
German trade policy, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the limiting
factor in this type of trade is the ability of the exporting country to absorb
German goods. Imports from Denmark, Poland, and Hungary have been less than
Germany permitted because of the inability of those countries to take German
goods, and there is at present, no reason to expect an improvement in their
takings of such goods. Present prospects are that Germany will have in-
creased supplies of domestic lard, slightly reduced supplies of domestic
butter, and reduced supplies of margarine. German margarine supplies for
the coming winter appear to be a weak point in the fat situation. Recently,
direct trade between Germany and the United States has been brought virtually
to a standstill by exchange difficulties.
In Czechoslovakia, July census returns indicated an increase of about
6 percent in hog numbers compared with those. of a year earlier. This
increase, however, will not lessen Czechoslovakia's need for imported hog
supplies, the latter being largely in the form of fat hogs, used mostly for
lard production. It is expected that Czechoslovakia will continue to take
live hogs, fatbacks, and lard from Poland and Danube Basin countries in
quantities approximating those of last year.
Hog numbers in Austria have been brought approximately to the level
where they can be maintained on Austrian-produced feeds, but not to the
point where they can supply Austria's pork and lard requirements. Consequent-
ly, Austria may be expected to continue to import live hogs from Poland,
Hungary, and Yugoslavia in numbers equal to, if not exceeding, last years
imports, provided the exporting countries can accept Austrian goods in
sufficient volume to pay for the imports.
Danube Basin Exporting Countries
In the Danube Basin, large feed crops and high prices for hogs suggest
a reversal of the decline in hog numbers which has been under way since the
relatively short harvest of feed crops of a year ago. The large corn and
barley crops harvested in the Basin this year have given rise to a strong
demand for feeders. Hog numbers in Hungary, the Basin's leading exporting
country, are now considerably smaller than those of a year ago, and exports
in the coming winter and spring are expected to be somewhat smaller than
those of last winter and spring. The present strong demand for feeders,
however, gives rise to the anticipation of extensive feeding operations
during the winter and increased supplies of fat hogs and lard available for
export in the summer and fall of 1937.
Danubian lard exports during August totaled approximately 3,3CO,C00
pounds compared with 2,116,000 pounds in July cand 4,541,000 pounds in August
1935. About 60 percent of the exported lard originated in Hungary as
against 79 percent a year earlier. Hungarian lard in August was shipped
almost exclusively to Czechoslovakia. Because of less favorable prices,
only small quantities were shipped to Germany. It is probable that exports
to that country will continue to be small during the next few months unless
the German Livestock Monopoly consents to pay materially higher prices than
heretofore. Prices on the Hungarian markets, at about 14 cents per pound,
were also relatively too high to make exports to England profitable. Yugo-
slav lard exports during August, amounting to about 40 percent of the total
from the Basin, were exclusively to Czechoslovakia at an average price of
14.5 cents per pound, f.o.b. the Yugoslav frontier.
Live-hog exports from the Basin during August were estimated at
about 55,000 head as compared with 56,440 head in July and 56,042 head in
August 1935. Of these exports 45 percent originated in Yugoslavia. Be-
cause of relatively higher prices in Czechoslovakia than in Austria, ship-
ments to the former were increased during August and those to the latter
decreased. It is reported that Czechoslovak import requirements during the
fall and winter months will be large. .It is probable, therefore, that the
reduced numbers available for export from the Basin will go largely to
,Czechoslovakia and that shipments to Austria will remain below usual )levels.
Hogs and pork products: Indices of foreign supplies and demand
Country and item
: : 1909-10:
: Unit : to
: : 1913-14:
: Oct. Aug.
Supplies, domestic :1,000
fresh pork, London :pounds:
Denmark ....... : "
Irish Free State: "
United States : "
Canada ........ :
Others ........ : "
Total bacon :
Ham, United States:
Total ....... "
Lard, total ..... "
Exports, bacon ....
14 cities ......
36 centers .....
Bacon, total ....
Lard, totel .....
Total hams etc
Total lard ..
49,475 68,385 6o,os01 67,679 76,941
660,089 478,826 409,052
42,700 44,066 41,309 28,936 28,619
S120,385 60,011 2,622 2,792 1,493 1,055
1,371 10,481 1,241 2,193 0 29
: 421 18,955 38L6 4 602 lbt 1.
16y-531._lfeploJ.j129 p l72 7, :9. 1,17
: 1o.542 12,.172 61,7bi 5b_5? _6~f__ 398 ._5
:151 .31 1_57.57 7 _6o. 65._4 5, _ro b il 36
: 157,933 210,059 255,'81
: 126,L40 172,290 125,438
: 34, 83 73,969 10, o68
: 3,ia5 2 J7,210 35, Jj
: 430,446 664,435 517,545
S:'), 'v. 92,550
1/ Not available.
uNvINsV2TY OF FLORIDA
111 11111 1 1 1 I III II i 11111
3 1262 08739 7674
Hogs and pork products: Foreign and domestic average prices per 100 pounds
for the month indicated, and stocks at the end of each month
Item : :2S- : Aug. 1935:July 1936:Aag. 1936
:Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars
Hogs, Chicago, basis
packers' and shippers'
quotations ............... : 8.00 11.04 10.78 9.76 10.06
Corn, Chicago, Ho. 3 Yellow 1.25 1.76 1.45 1.53 2.03
Hogs, heavy, Berlin live
weight ................... : 12.31 17.11 18.79 17.70 17.70
Barley, Leipzig ........... : 1.72 2.11 3.05 3.22 3.04
Chicago ................. : 10.89 15.42 16.81 12.10 12.81
Liverpool ............... : 12.10 15.58 17.08 17.08 12.37
Hamburg ................. 19.33 16.17 19.04 12.22 13.27
American short cut
green hams ........... 15.70 26.49 23.29 21.97 20.58
American green bellies 22.18 Nominal 16.71 17.03
Danish Wiltshire sides : 16.6 26.08 19.34 20.65 22.25
Canadia.n grecn sides .. 15.67 23.28 17.24 18.23 20.51
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Processed pork I/ ......: 674,941 325,249 441,961 420,848
Lard in cold storage .... : 158,190 53,537 117,026 110,561
1/ Dry salt cured .nd in process of cure;
pickled, cured, and in process of cure;
- 0 -