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3 (n. -1 2 UNITED STATES ZDPARTMEIT OF AGRICULt-T
Bureau of Agricultural Economics ,.. .
L, S DEPOSITORY
HP-82 September 29, 1936
WORLD HOG AND PORK PROSPECTS
The United States fall and spring ,pig crops of 1936-37 are expected
to be considerably smaller than those of 1935-36 as a result of high corn
prices and unusually heavy marketing of breeding stock in July, August
and early September. Hog slaughter during the first half of the 1936-37
year is not expected to show any considerable reduction from this cause,
However, and the number of hogs to be slaughtered in the 1936-37 marketing
year, beginning October 1, is still expec'el to be larger than in 1935-36.
Current high costs of feed will probably result in early marketing
of the pig :'*op farrowed last spring, and slaughter supplies from October to
December are expected to be proportionately larger than usual in relation
to those from January to March. A decline in hog prices is in prospect
for the fall and early winter months. Prices in the late winter and early
spring of 1937, however, are likely to advance rather sharply, and relatively
high prices will probably prevail during most of 1937.
Exports o. hog products are expected to increase somewhat in the
first half of the 1936-37 marketing year as a result of the prospects for
larger domestic slaughter supplies. Exports in the last half of 1936-37,
however, probably will be no greater than the relatively low level of
exports in the last half of the present marketing year.
A slight increase in the British cured pork import quota applicable
to the September-December period of 1936 was announced by the British Board
of Trade on August 17. The increase was apportioned among the quota coun-
tries according to the usual percentages, and resulted principally from
reduction in the estimates of Empire cured pork available for shipment in
the last 4 months of the ycar. Tae revised quota for the United States is
approximately 14,534,000 pounds. Only 152,000 pounds remains as redeemable
deficit caused by short shipments earlier in the year. Most of the deficit
was made up in June and July when exports to the United Kingdom totaled
over 5,000,000 and 6,000,000 pounds, respectively, compared with an average
of less th,-n 3,000,000 pounds for the 5 preceding months.
A considerable increase is anticipated in Danish hog slaughter for
the period from July 1936 to May 1937 on the basis of the July 18 hog census,
which indicated that there were 3,503,000 head of hogs on farms in Denmark
on that date, the largest number since July 1933. Smaller hog numbers in
the Danube Basin, on the other hand, now indicate some decline in exports
of hog products from this area in the second half of 1936 and the first half
Lard imports into the United Kingdom continued at unusually low levels
in July. Imports from the United States amounted to only 37 percent of the
total imported for the season from October 1935 through July 1936 compared
with 63 percent for the corresponding period a year earlier. Supplies of
fat contain e to remain limited in Germany. Decreases in Gerran hog slaughter
have tended to hold 1935-36 supplies of domestic lard below the 1934-35
level, and imports of lard, although larger in the first 10 months of the
1935-36 season than in the same period a year earlier, since May have been
considerably smaller than those of the corresponding period of 1934-35.
Corn prices rose relatively more than hog prices during July and
August, causing the hog-corn price ratio to decline to levels unfavorable
for hog production. Marketings of packing sows during the 10 weeks ended
September 5 were unusually large in relation to the total number of hogs
marketed, the percentage of packing sows marketed averaging 40 percent of
total packer and shipper purchases at the seven leading markets compared with
28 percent a year earlier. This relatively large proportion of packing
sows marketed, many of which were piggy, resulted in a considerable re-
duction in breeding stock on farms. Both the fall pig crop of this year
and the spring pig crop of next year are likely to be smaller than those
of 1935-36, notwithstanding that in early June farmers reported they were
planning an increase of 14 percent in fall farrowings over the previous
The current high cost of feed is expected to cause the pig crop
farrowed last spring to be marketed unusually early, thereby making slaughter
supplies from October to December proportionately larger than usual in
relation to those from January to March. The effect of the large market-
ings on hog prices, which ordinarily decline seasonally during this quarter
may be no greater than usual, since consumer demand is apparently increasing
and demand from packers for storage purposes is expected to be stronger
than that of a year earlier. Because of the relatively small supplies in
prospect for the late winter and early spring of 1937, the price movement
during that period is likely to be sharply upward.
The seasonal up-trend in hog prices which started in May apparently
ended in late August, as prices have since been declining moderately. The
amount of the summer advance varied considerably as between hogs of
different weights and grades. Prices of the better grades of medium
weight butcher hogs rose slightly more than $2.00 per 100 pounds, whereas
the advances in light weight butchers ranged from $1.20 to $1.90. The
smallest advances were in the prices of the extreme light weights and the
lowest grades. Price declines occurring since late August have been
greatest for the extremely light hogs. Prices of packing sows, however,
have continued to show an upward tendency because of decreasing numbers
of such hogs in the present market supply. The average price per 100
pounds of packers and shippers at Chicago was $10.06 in August compared
with $9.76 in July and $10.78 in August 1935.
Market receipts of hogs in August were the smallest since October
1935. Slaughter under Federal inspection totaled 2,254,000 head, 16
percent below July but 35 percent larger than the unusually small slaughter
of August last year. The increase over a year earlier was not so great
as that recorded in June, however. Total hog slaughter for the current
marketing year, which ends September 30, is expected to be about the same
as in the previous year, when the total slaughtered under Federal in-
spection amounted to 30,700,000 head. Marketings in July and August this
year included the largest proportion of packing sows recorded in several
years and was comprised of relatively large numbers of unfinished light
butcher hogs, and of feeder and slaughter pigs. Storage holdings of
pork and lard declined less than in other recent years during August, and
have recently exceeded the quantities of both products hold in storage a
The average weight of hogs in the seven leading markets dropped
sharply toward the end of August. Heavy liquidation of large packing sows
early in the month caused a later-than usual peak in average weights. Late
in August there was a sharp decrease both in number and average weights of
packing sows, although the percentage of packing sows was still considerably
greater than a year earlier. This, together with the relatively large
number of pigs and unfinished butcher hogs, caused a sharp decrease in
average weights, and in early September the average was less than a year
earlier. Average weights in the seven markets were 256 pouids in August
compared with 258 in July and 251 pounds in August of last year.
The sharp rise in corn prices, which started early in July, con-
tinued during most of August, but reacted slightly toward the end of the
month. Prices during the first week in September were about the same
as in early August. The average price of No. 3 Yellow corn at Chicogo was
113.5 cents per bushel in August compared with 85.8 cents in July and 80.6
cents in August last year. Based on farm prices on the 15th of the month,
the hog-corn price ratio in the North Central States was 9.5 in August,
compared with 12.0 in July 1936 and 14.1 in August 1935. The hog-corn ratio
in the next few months will probably continue below that of corresponding
months of last year.
Wholesale prices of fresh pork rose sharply during the last half of
August to the highest levels of this year, but in general were slightly
below the peak prices recorded in the late summer of 1935. Prices of lard
advanced in the first 3 weeks of August and then reacted slightly. Prices
of most cured products were steady to lower. The composite wholesale price
of the principal hog products at New York was $21.94 per 100 pounds in
August compared with $21,35 in July and $25.77 in August last year.
Total pork exports in July were nearly 20 percent larger than in
June and exceeded corresponding monthly exports of a year earlier for the
first time this season. The increase in shipments of cured pork accounted
for almost the entire gain in pork exports, with hams and shoulders, the
principal cured item, accounting for about 80 percent of the entire in-
crease. Hams and shoulders exported totaled 6,557,000 pounds in July.
Exports of this item to the United Kingdom, the leading market, accounted
for nearly all of the increase since June. Bacon exports totaled 627,000
pounds in July and showed some increase over the amount shipped in June,
but were less than the total for July 1935, and the smallest for the month
Exports of lard from the United States in July, amounting to 7,555,000
pounds, were about 32 percent smaller than those for June, but were over 50
percent greater than the extremely low total for July of last year. Exports
of lard to the United Kingdom were the smallest since October 1935. The
decrease in lard shipments to Germany from June, when the total was relative-
ly high, to July may have been due in part to the increasing difficulties
of making satisfactory arrangements for payment with German buyers. Exports
of hams and bacon to Cuba showed some increase during July, while shipments
of lard to that country showed a relatively small decrease. Total exports
of both pork and lard for the first 10 months of the 1935-36 season, however,
were far below those of any recent year preceding the 1934-35 marketing
season, and were somewhat below those of that year.
Hog prices averaged higher at Toronto in August than in July, al-
though prices tended to weaken somewhat in the last week of the month.
Bacon hogs at Toronto averaged $9.29 per 100 pounds, United States currency,
compared with $9.05 for the month of July, and $9.90 in August of last year.
Marketings of hogs were heavier in August than in July and in
August 1935. In the 4-week period ended August 27-the number graded at
stockyards and packing plants in Cnada reached 230,000 head compared with
223,000 head in the 4-week period ended July 30, and only 173,000 head in
the corresponding period of August 1935. The increase in hog marketing
so far this year as compared with the same period of 1935 amounts to about
200,000 head or 11 percent.
It is anticipated by Canadian marketing officials that the present
scarcity and prospective high price of feed may result in over-liquidation
of sows and unfinished hogs. Heavy marketing of sows at this time, unless
checked, is likely to cause a falling off in fall litters and thus bring
about a shortage in pig supplies for next spring and summer. Spring farrow-
ings this year showed an increase of 28 percent above 1935.
Canadian trade statistics show that exports of pork products to the
United Kingdom in July amounted to 15,693,000 pounds. Bacon exports,
which comprised 83 percent of the'total, increased 10 percent above June
and 24 percent above July 1935, whereas there was a decrease in lard exports
of 14 percent as compared with June, but an increase of 166 percent as
. compared with July 1935. Total exports of pork products from Canada to the
United Kingdom during the first 10 months oV the current hog marketing year,
October 1 to July 31, amounted to 133,000,000 pounds, an increase of 13
percent above the same period of 1934-35.
United Kingdom and Irish Free State
On Aagust 17, the British Board of Trade announced an upward
revision in the cured-pork quota for the last 4 months :of 1936, the total
to equal 1,602,138 hundredweight (179,439,000 pounds) instead of the
1,590,683 hundredweight (178,156,000 pounds) previously announced. See
table, page 6. .Larger:importations will be allowed from foreign countries
because of reductions in the estimates of Empire cured:pork available for
shipment during the last 4 months of the year. In addition to this slight
increase in the September-December allocation, 1,295 hundredweight (145,000
pounds) were apportioned according to the usual- percentages among the quota
countries. The a justment was made because of the failure of. Yugoslavia
to use this amount of the quota ranrited as compensation for loss of the
principal Yugoslav market for cured pork when sanctions against Italy were
first applied. The new quota figure represents an increase .of less than
1 percent over that announced earlier, leaving the reduction from the May-
August 1936 period still 12 percent, but only 4.4 percent from the average
monthly rate for October-December 1935.
: The United States share in the revised September-December total
British cured-pork quota is approximately 14,534,000 pounds, representing a
monthly rate of nearly 3,634,000 pounds. Monthly imports of American cured
pork into the United Kingdom for the first 7 months of 1936 averaged
3,532,000 pounds. July imports, however, were up to nearly 6,400,000
pounds, bringing the redeemable deficit caused by short shipments earlier
in the year down to a negligible quantity (152,000 pounds).. See table,
The seasonal decline in the price of American short cut green hams
as reflected by quotations on the Liverpool market began a month 'earlier
than usual this year, the average for August amounting to $20.58 per 100'
pounds as against $21.97 for July and $23.29 for August 1935. Total ham
imports into the United Kingdom during July amounted to 9,463,.000 pounds,
an increase of more than 700,000 pounds over June imports and of nearly
900,000 pounds over comparable 1935 figures. Imports from the United
St#tes accounted for all of this increase, shipments from Canada, the.
secondhand almost only other important supplier, being considerably lower
in July than in June.
Liverpool bacon quotations, unlike those for ham, rose steadily
during August, Danish Wiltshire sides at $22.26 per 100 pounds, making the
highest average since April 1930 and Canadian green sides at $20.31 the
highest since June 1930. American green bellies also shared in the upward
price tendency, averaging $17.03 during August against $16.71 in July.
Total supplies of bacon reached unusually low levels in British markets
during August. Imports of bacon into the United Kingdom in July were
3,446,000 pounds higher than in June. Total imports for the season, how-
ever, at 609,000,000 pounds were nearly 8.5 percent below comparable
1934-35 figures. Though imports from Denmark were over 1,600,000 pounds
higher in >ialy than in June, total imports from that country for the
season to the end of July were 10 percent below those of a year ago.
United Kingdom: Revised total cured pork allocations, September 1-
December 31, 1936, and to the United States, January 1-December
:Total allocation,Sept.l-Dec.31 :Allocations to United States
:Percentage: : Jan. 1-Dec. 31, 1936
Country : share of : Allocations : :Allocation :Imports
: total : :Month : l/ : 2/.
: Hundred- : 1,000 : : 1,OQO : 1,000
: Percent : weight : pounds : 1936 : pounds : pounds
Denmark ......: 63.50 : 1,017,358: 113,944: Jan. : 3,877 : 2,324
Netherlands ..: 9.50 : 152,203: 17,047: Feb. : 3,642 : 2 148
Poland .......: 7.95 : 127,370: 14,265: Mar. : 3,990. : 2,597
Sweden .......: 4.70 : 75,300: 8,434: Apr. : 3,862 : 2,354
Lithuania ....: 2.95 : 47,263: 5,293: May : 4,146 : '3,895
Estonia ......: .75 : 12,016: 1,346: June : 4.014 : 5,031
Finland ......: .40 : 6,40p: 718: July : 4,146 : 6,376
Latvia .......: .70 :. 11,215: 1,256: Aug. : 4,146 :
USSR .........: .85 : 13,618: 1,525: Sept.: 3,633 :
Argentina ....: .70 : 11,215: 1,256: Oct. : 3,633 :
United States.:3/ 8.00 :3/ 128,171:3/ 14,355:(Nov. : 3,634) :
: : : :(Dec. : 3,634) :
Total .......: 100.00 : 1,602,1,38: 179,43.9: : 46,357 :
1/ Final figures with all adjustments made.
2/ Not adjusted for re-exports.
3/ Plus 0.1 percent of total to allow for adjustments in connection with
imports through Canada.
Lard prices advanced materially during August, as indicated by
Liverpool quotations, the monthly average for American refined lard standing
at $13.51 per hundred pounds against $12.37 in July. Last year's comparable
average, however, was $17.08. Lard imports into the United Kingdom continued
at unusually low levels during July, totaling for the season to the end of
that month 140,450,000 pounds against 179,700,000 pounds in 1934-35 and
279,600,000 pounds in 1933-34. Imports from the United States declined
again in July to less than 6,000,000 pounds. The United States share in the
total for the period October-July was 37 percent against 63 percent last
season and 93 percent in the corresponding period of 1933-34.
Supplies of British and Irish fresh nork at London Central Markets
during this season to July 31 were considerably higher than in any of the
past several seasons. Supplies from these sources in July totaled a little
over 4,000,000 pounds, which was an increase of 31 percent compared with
July 1935 figures.
A weekly slaughter of 96,000 to 101,000 hogs in Denmark is anticipated
by Danish authorities for the period July-May 1933-37, according to Agricultural
Commissioner H. E. Reed at Berlin. The slaughter estimate was made by the
semi-official Danish Agricultural Council on the basis of the July 18 hog
census, which, at 3,503,000 head, was the largest census or estimate since
July 1933. On the basis of the May 1936 census, the Council had estimated
weekly slaughter at about 95,000 head for the period May-February 1936-37.
The weekly average for the calendar year 1935 was 83,000 head.
Most of the increase in the July 1936 estimate over those made in
May and June of this year is accounted for by the larger number of pigs
weighing less than 132 pounds (60 kilos). This development was to be ex-
pected from the marked increase in breeding operations in evidence for some
time. Bred sow numbers, although showing a decrease of about 6 percent from
the June 1936 estimates, are higher than on any other estimate or census
date since April 1933. Most of the decrease from June in bred sows apoeered
in the gilt category.
The decline i.A gilts resulted from an increase in the practice of
breeding for one litter and then selling as sows. It will be recalled that
the Danish hog-marketing control measures apply only to hogs of bacon weight
and not to pigs under 110 pounds (50 kilos) or to sows and boars. These
exceptions have been found to be too liberal for exercising proper control
under price conditions favorable to increasing production. The supply of
light pigs for slaughter has been increased materially, under existing
regulations, producers have preferred not to risk feeding pigs to bacon
weights only to have them classed as excess or "non-card" hogs, which must
be sold at unremunerative prices. Gilts in many instances, after producing
one litter, have been marketed as sows for domestic consumption, bringing
prices little less than those paid for "card" or export-bacon hogs. The srle
of liLht pigs and of gilts as sows has prevented the low non-card prices from
Being as effective a limitation on production as was intended. An order effec-
tive .July 1, 1936, however, now prohibits the marketing of sows under 19 months
of age at the prices prescribed for sows. Such sows must be sold at the non-
B; ard prices for bacon hogs. This measure also is expected to reduce the number
bu .Of young pigs, now regarded as excessive.
;;".""/ E ::.
There has been little change during recent '7eeks in the limited
supplies of fat available in Germ7ny. Lard import figures for July, at
2,400,000 pounds, were more than twice as large as the June imports, but
remained well below figures for all other months of the current season.
German receipts of Danube Basin lard have been curtailed sharply in recent
months, principally because prices in Germany have not been sufficiently high
to attract the diminished supplies of the Danubian product. Of the July
imoorts into Germany, Denmark supplied nearly 2,000,000 pounds, the United
States and various European countries accounting for the small remainder.
Lard imports since May have been considerably smaller than in the
corresponding 1935 period. For the current season beginning October 1935,
totql lard im-'orts to July 31 wore 60 percent larger than the comparable
1934-35 figures as a result of the heavier imports in the months prior to
June. From October 1935 to April 1936, decreases below last year in hog
marketing and slau hter tended to hold the supplies of domestic lard below
the 1934-35 level. Hoz marketings werc heavier in ..ay and June this year
than last, but fell off again in July and August. The current season's
total receipts of hogs at 14 cities as of July 31 were 19 percent below, and
slaughter at 36 centers 21 percent below the corresponding 1934-35 figures.
Large domestic feed crops and high hog and pork prices mark the current
h'og situation in the Danube Basin, according to the Belgrade office of the
Foreign Agricultural Service. These conditions suggest a reversal of the
material decline in hog numbers which resulted from the heavy exports of
live hogs, lard, and pork in 1925 and the first half of 1936. As early as
last April, ho1 numbers in Hungary, the Basin's loading exporting country,
were down to 2,554,000 head compared with 3,176,000 head in 1935 and an
average of 2,368,000 head in the period 1930-1934.
The smaller hog numbers indicate some decline in the export volume
during the second half of 1936 and the first half of 1937. Of the hogs now
being marketed, a relatively large proportion shows l ck of finish as a
resultt of last year's reduced feed-grain crops. This situation has brought
about a decided upward movement in the prices of well-finished hogs, and a
favorable hog-feed ratio. Larger feeding operations than last year are ex-
pected this fall and winter.
Lard ex-jorts from Danube countries in the first 7 months of 1936 totaled
about 44,300,000 pounds against about 39,200,000 pounds in the corresponding
1935 period. Participation in this year's exports by Bulgaria and Rumania,
especially the former, was considerably heavier than in 1935. Hungary, however.
continued as the leading shipper of Danubian lard, accounting for about 70
percent of thd 1936 total compared with about 88 percent of the 1935 exports.
Yugoslavian participation also has increased this year, with exports from that
country about 66 percent larger than in 1935.
The relative scarcity of fat hogs in July resulted in Hungarian lard
prices advancing to the point where exports to Germany, formerly the leading
buyer, were no longer profitable. As a result, the July movement of Hungarian
lard to Germany fell to practically nothing. During June and July the German
price for Hungarian Lard was set at the equivalent of about 13 cents per pound,
f.o.b. Budapest. A new German price for August, equivalent to 13.7 cents, re-
newed the movement of Hungarian lard. That price, however, is not entirely
satisfactory to Hungary, which agreed to an August quota considerably smaller
than the quota for earlier months.
Hogs and pork products: Indices of foreign supplies and demand
: :_ Oct. July
: :1909-10:1924-25: : : :
Unit : to : to
Unit : oo:1932-33:1933-34:1934-35:1935-36
: :1913-14:1928-29: .
: :averasEe:averase: :
UNITED KINGDOM: :
Supplies, domestic fresh: 1000
pork, London .......... :pounds:
Denmark ....... "
Irish Free State .....: "
United States ........: :
Canada .............. : "
Others ...............: ,
Total ............: :
Ham, total ............: "
Lard, total ...........: :
DIMAEK: : :
xoorts : :
Hogs, inspected ....... :l000's:
Hog receipts 14 cities : "
Hog slaughter 36 centers "
: : : :
: : : :
:* 65,482: 56,325: 64,075: 69,809
:* 65,482: 56,325: 64,075: 69,809
: 44,188: 16,576: 27,517: 39,943: 44,650
152,042: 89,794: 4,995: 4,536: 2,572: 1,563
34,872: 64,236: 31,243: 86-,844: 92,162: 86,526
79,475:106,307: 82,046: 71,124: 64,506: 62,815
Imports : 1000:
Bacon, total .......... :pounds: 2,212: 14,278: 25,340: 24,309:
Lard, total ...........: :167,473:185,285:183,662:103,604:
Slaughter : : : : : :
Hogs, inspected ....... :1000's: 27,789: 39,898: 40,589: 38,668:
Exports : :
Bacon : 1000: : : :
United Kingdom ....... :pounds:108,288: 55,371: 2,318: 2,569:
Germany ..............: : 1,308: 9,881: 1,221: 2,493:
Cuba .................: : 6,356: 17,404: 3,545: 4,132:
Total ............ :
Hams, shoulders -
United Kingdom .......
Total ............ :
United Kingdom .......:
Germiany ... ...........
Cuba ..... ............
: 31,116: 67,744: 9,545: 14,452:
: 30,454: 34,595: 32,436: 20,351:
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
Illi IlllU lll11111112 0 lll8U 1M I
3 1262 08864 9867
Hogs and pork products: Foreign and:domestic average prices p&r IDO
pounds for the month indicated, and stocks at the end of each month .
: 1909- : 1925- :
Item :1913 July :1929 July : July :
: average : average : 1935 :
: Dollars Dollars Dollars
Hogs, Chicago, basis :
packers' & shippers' :
quotations .......... :
Corn, Chicago, No. 3 :
Hogs, heavy, Berlin :
live weight .........
Barley, Leipzig ......
American short cut :
green hams .......:
Processed pork 4/ ...:
Lard in cold storage.:
June : July
1936 : 1936- .
1.14 1.53 t
17.70 1?.70 ,..
S82 .::4 '
.z.L ,-824 .:*:.:
S.... : :.*: :. :
J/ Three weeks.
2/ No prices quoted.
3/ Two weeks.
4/ Dry salt cured and in process of cure; pickled, cured, and in process
cure, and frozen.
--- 0 - -
* ."K. Ji** -, ,