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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ---
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Washington L ..
uP-80 July 36, 1936"
WORLD HOG AND PORK PfOSPECTS
Larger marketing of hogs in the United States next fall and winter
appear probable in view of the marked increase in the spring pig crop of 1936
oWV 1935. Because of this increase in supplies it is expected that prices
for hogs will decline seasonally in the fall months of this year. The further
laprovement in consumer demand in prospect, however, will offset in part the
effect of the increase in supplies upon hog prices.
The June Pig Crop Report recently released indicated that there would
i be an increase of about 14 percent in the number of sows to farrow in the fall
of 19i8. This indication, however, was based upon breeding intentions reported
by farmers on about June 1. Since early June sever? drought conditions have
developed in tho-Corn Belt, which is the principal hog producing area. These
conditions have reduced the 1936 corn crop prospects materially, and it is
probable that there will be little if any increase in the 1936 fall pig crop.
The outturn of the corn crop is still very uncertain, but if corn production
fths year is curtailed considerably by drought, as now appears probable, some
liquidation of sows and spring pigs will occur in the next few months. A
af.11 corn crop this year would cause corn prices to rise relative to hog
ieres, and the hog-corn price ratio would be much less favorable for increases
"ta hog production than it has been in the last year. If this ratio is reduced
materially it is also probable that average weights of hogs marketed in 1936-37
will be much lighter than the heavier-than-average weights this year.
A further increase in the number of hogs in Germany was reported in
early June, and slaughter supplies of hogs in that country continue to increase.
Although United States exports of lard to Germany have increased in recent
months they are still at a very low level. Restrictions to imports in European
countries generally have tended to fix an upper level beyond which exports
of this country cannot increase. Because of the shortage of hog supplies in
this country, exports of pork and lard in 1935-36 have been materially below
this upper level. With an increase in hog slaughter in prospect in the first
half of the 1936-37 marketing year, it is probable that some increase in ex-
ports will occur. Whether this increase continues throughout 1936-37 will
depend chiefly upon the trend in domestic hog production, which in turn will
be governed largely by the effect of the present drought upon the 1936 corn
In view of the large increase in the 1936 spring pig crop, the number
of hogs slaughtered in the fall and winter (October to April) of 1936-37
probably will be considerably larger than a year earlier. If the increase
indicated in the June Pig Crop Report in the number of sows to farrow in the
fall of 1936 is realized there will also be an increase in hog slaughter in
the summer of 1937 compared with the present summer. Because of the severe
drought conditions prevailing in the Corn Belt since mid-June, however, it
does not seem probable that the indicate. increase in the number of sows to
farrow this fall will materialize.
Although the number of hogs on farms over 6 months of age on June 1
was estimated to be only 7 percent larger than a year earlier, it appears
probable that hog slaughter in August and September will be considerably larger
than in those months last year. In view of the severe drought it is likely
that some liquidation of sows and spring pigs will occur in this period, which
will represent an addition to the number of hogs that would have booen marketed
in these months if there had been no drought. Slaughter supplies in August
and September, however, will be smaller than in May and June. Thus it seems
probable that hog prices will advance seasonally in the next 2 months. Because
of the large increase in the 1936 spring pig crop, the seasonal increase in
hog slaughter in the coming fall and early winter will be larger than usual,
and a decline in hog prices is probable after September. With some further
improvement in consumer demand in prospect and a fairly strong storage demand
for hog products this winter likely, the drop in hog prices from late September
to the end of 1936 may not be greater than the usual seasonal decline for
The 1936 spring pig crop was estimated to bo about 29 percent larger
than that of 1935, according to the June 1936 pig crop report of the Bureau
of Agricultural Economicse. Despite this large increase, the number of pigs
produced in the spring of 1936 was the smallest in all of the last 20 years
except 1935, when the spring crop was very sharply curtailed because of the
1934 drought. As indicated in the table on page 5 showing the estimates of
the spring pig crop by regions, increases in pig production were reported in
all areas, with the greatest increases occurring in the Corn Belt and in the
Western States. In the North Centrcl States (Corn Belt) the number of pigs
produced in the spring of 1936 was 32.5 percent larger than the number produced
in the spring of 1935. Lest year the greatest decrease in the spring pig crop
occurred in the North Central States, where drought conditions in 1934 were
It was also indicated in the June Pig Crop Report that the number of
sows to farrow in the fall of 1936 will be about 14 percent larger than the
number farrowing in the fall of 1935. This indication was based upon inter-
pretations of breeding intentions reported by farmers on or about June 1. Since
June 1, however, severe drought conditions have developed in the Corn Belt
and corn crop prospects for 1936 have declined greatly. Hence it seems unlikely
that the increase in the number of sows to farrow this fall, which was in-
dicated on the basis of reports on June 1, will be realized.
The number of hogs over 6 months of age on farms on June 1, 1936 was
estimated to be about 7 percent larger than a year earlier for the United
States as a whole, and about 11 percent larger for the North Central States
(Corn Belt). The number of hogs on farms over 6 months of age on June 1 in-
cludes mostly hogs that will be market. in the following 4 months and sows
bred or to be bred for fall farrow. In past years thare has been a fairly
close relationship between changes in number of hogs over 6 months of age in
the Corn Belt and changes in inspected hog slaughter from June to September.
The change in the number of hogs on farms on June 1, after making allowance
for the increase in hog slaughter in June compared with a year earlier and
for the estimated increase in the number of sows to farrow this fall, would
indicate that inspected hog slaughter in the period from July to September
1936 would be little if any larger than that of a yc.ar earlier. This indication
of slaughter-in the summer months, however, is sorowhat at variance with the
large increase in summer slaughter supplies indicated by the estimated increase
of over 30 percent in the 1935 fall pig crop. It should be noted that the
indication of summer slaughter supplies of hogs given in the June issue of
this Report was based entirely upon the increase in the 1935 fall pig crop,
since the estimate of the number of hogs on farms over 6 months of age on
Tune 1, 1936 was not then available. Regardless of which of these indications
is correct, slaughter supplies of hogs in July, August, and September probably
will be larger than otherwise and larger than last year bocnuse of drought
conditions which have recently developed.
Hog prices advanced somewhat in late May and early June and advanced
further in late June and early July. Since slaughter supplies of all species
of livestock increased from May to June, the advance in hog prices in recent
weeks reflects an improvement in consumer demand for mcats considerably greater
than was anticipated several months ago. The average price of hogs at Chicago
for the last wouk of June was $0.03, thu highest weukly average since lato
April. For the .-ntire month of June the average price of hogs at Chicago was
19.88 per 100 pounds compared with $9.58 in May .nd ."9.27 in June last year.
ThE advance in prices in recent weeks was sonewh..t greater for light and medium
weight butcher hops than for heavy weight butcher hogs and packing sows.
Slaughter supplies of hogs in June were somewhat larger than in May,
but the increase was less than average for this period. Hog slaughter.under
Federal inspection in June, totaling bout 2,759,000 head, was about 50
percent larger than in June last year. '.Vith the exception of June 1935,
however, inspected slaughter in June this ybar was the smallest for the month
since 1917. The proportion of packing sows included in the market supply
of hogs increased materially during Juno, as is usual for this time of year.
Averae weights of all hogs in June continued heavier than & year earlier.
The average weight of hogs at the seven leading markets for the month was..
253 pounds, compared with 242 pounds in May and 244 pounds in June 1935.
Corn prices advanced moderately during the first 3 weeks of June but
advanced sharply in late June and early July as crop conditions in the Corn
Belt became unfavorable. The average price of No. 3 Yellnw corn at Chicago
in June was 64 cents compared with 63 cents in May and 85 cents in June last
year. The advance in corn prices in June and early July was somewhat greater
than the rise in hog prices, and as a result the hog-corn price ratio declined
during this period, but it continued to be higher than average and higher
than last year. Based, on Chicago prices, the bog-corn price ratio for the
we-k ended July 3 was 14.8 'compared .vith 16.0 in early Juno and 10.6 a year
earlier. The ratio has been above average since August 1935 and has been
much above average since last November. The high hog prices in relation to
corn prices in the last year were an importatn factor in causing the increase
in the number of pigs produced in the fall of 1935 and in the spring of 1936,-
and they also have been the chief reason for the increase in average weights
of hogs marketed during the current hog marketing year. If the 1936 corn
crop is sharply curtailed by drought, it is probable that corn prices will
rise relative to hog prices in the coming y3ar, and as a result the incentive
for further increases in hog production will be considerably lessened.
Prices of fresh pork declined in early June but -:ere fairly steady
during the remainder of the month. Prices of most cuts of cured pork rose
during June, while lard prices were about steady. The composite wholesale
price of hog products at New York averaged $20.99 per 100 pounds in June
compared with $20.57 in May and '21.96 in the -corresponding month a year
Exports of pork in May were materially larger than in April but they
were considerably smaller than in May last year. A large part of the increase
from April to May was accounted for by the larger shipments of hams and
shoulders, most of which are consigned to the United Kingdom. In the first
8 months of the 1935-36 hog marketing year exports of pork were about 45
percent smaller than in the corresponding month of 19Z4-35.
Exports of lard in May, totaling nearly 11,000,000 pounds, were larger
than in April 1936 and in May last year. Except for May 1935, however, lard
exports in May this year were the smallest for the month in the last 30 years.
Lard exports both to Great Britain and Cuba in May were-larger than in April,
and shipments to Cuba were larger than in the corresponding month a year
earlier. Exports to Germany in May were almost negligible, whereas in April
they amounted to about 1,000,000 pounds. In the first 8 months of 1935-36,
lard exports of about 68,000,000 pounds were 45 percent less than in 1934-35
and more than 80 percent smaller than in 1933-34.
United States: Spring pig crop, by geographic divisions,
Sows : Sows to be farrowed
: Spring pigs saved Spring : farrowed : in the fall of 1936
: (Dec. 1 to June 1) pigs : in spring : compared with the
: saved per: (Dec. 1 : fall of 1935
Geographic : : litter : to June 1): (June 1 to Dec. 1)
division : : 1936 l/ : : : : : : 136 2/
: : :Per- : : : : : :Per-
1935 :Total :cent- : 1935: 1936: 1935: 1936: 1935:Total: cent-
: : :age of: : : : : : :age of
: ; 1935 ; ; ; ; : : 1935
:Thou- :Thou- : Per- : Num-: Num-:Thou-:Thou-:Thou-:Thou-: Per-
:sands : sands : cent : ber : ber :sands:sands:sands:sands: cent
North Atlantic: 614: 724: 118: 6.04: 6.01: 102: 120: 104: 122: 117
East North : : : :
Central .....: 8,80:10,579: 119: 6.41: 6.1.5:1,3.5:1,720:1,020:1,231: 121
West North : : : : :
Central .....:14.539:20,462: 141: 6.03: 6.01:2.411:3.403:1.336:1.414: 106
Total North : : .: : : :
Central ...:23,419:31.041: 132: 6.17: 6.06:3.796:5.123:2.356:2.645: 112
South Atlantic: 2,6o61: 2,900: 109: 5.76: 5.58: 460: 520: 399: 462: 116
South Central : 4,644: 5,764: 124: 5.50: 5.66: 845:1,018: 747: 895: 120
Mountain and : : : : : : : : :
Pacific(West): 1.052: 1,455; 138: 5.77: 5.89: 182: 247: 160: 185: 115
United : : : : : : : :
States ....:32,380:41,884: 129: 6.01: 5.96:5,385:7,028:3,766:4,310: 114
Compiled from the Pig Crop Report of June 1, 1936.
24 Number indicated to farrow from breeding intention reports.
Marketings of hogs in Canada in the first half of 1936 were about
6.5 percent larger than in the same period of 1935. Despite this increase
in marketing, hog prices thus far this year have averaged only slightly
lower than a year earlier. Bacon exports, which are largely con gefnt'o9
the United Kingdom, have been slightly smaller thus far in 1936/ t exports
of other kinds of pork have increased this year. Total exports of hogs and
hog products combined in the first 5 months of 1936 were slightly larger
than in the corresponding months last year.
Hog prices in Canada advanced somewhat during June. The aver-ge
price of bacon hogs at Toronto for the 4 weeks ended June 25 was about
$8.80 (United States currency) compared with $8.16 in the month of Mny and
$9.91 in the month of June last year.. The number of hogs and hog carcasses
graded at public stockyards and packing plants in Canad in the 4 weeks
ended June 25 totaled 259,000 head, which was a decrease of 5 percent
compared with the gradings in May but was an increase of 26 percent compared
with those of the corresponding period in 1935. The increase in Canadian
hog marketing in 1936 compared with a year earlier has occurred entirely
in the last 4 months, since marketing in January.and February were smaller
than in 1935.
:United Kingdom and Irish Free State
On June 19, 1936, a supplementary agreement between the British and
Danish Governments was signed, continuing in force the Anglo-Danish agree-
ment of.June 20, 1933, according to information received from Agricultural
Attache'C. C..Taylor at London.. The agreement is subject to 4 months,
notice of renunciation by..either party. Minor changes were made in some
of the provisions., but that affecting bacon importations into the United
Kingdom, contrary to expectations, was not altered.
Liverpool bacon quotations for the month of :June had a firmer -tone
than during the previous month, .Danish Wiltshire sides making an average
of $20.33 per 100 pounds and Qanadian green sides, $18.08. Wiltshire
sides averaged 24 cents above the May figure but 82 cents under the June
1935 average. The June .average for. Canadian green sides was 53 cents above
the comparable. May figure,- though 67 cents under that of a year earlier .
Total imports: of bacon for the first .8 months of the current season
amounted to over 484b000,000 pounds as against 528,000,000 for the same
months of the 1934-35 season and 861,000,000. during the October-May period
of the peak 191-32 season. This represents a decline of 44 percent during
the past 4 years. Danish imports into the United Kingdom over the same
period show an even greater decline, amounting for the 4 years to 55 percent.
Imports from Denmark for the 1935-36 season to the end of May reached only
260,000,000 pounds as against over 582,000,000 pounds in the 1931-32 period.
Imports of bacon from the Irish Free State continue to increase,
totaling nearly 36,000,000 pounds in the period October to May 1935-36
compared with 32,000,000 pounds last year and less than 15,000,000 pounds
during the same months of 1932-33, the year of lowest bacon shipments into
the United Kingdom from .that source. Imports thus far this year have been
the highest for any 8-month period since the 1928-29 season, when they
reached a little over 40,000,000 pounds. Canadian shipments of bacon to
the United Kingdom during the period October to May 1935-36 have been well
below those of a year ago and slightly under those of the 1933-34 season*
Such imports amounted to about 68,000,000 pounds, which represents a decline
of 9 percent from the comparable period of a year earlier, but they are still
some 30 times larger than imports from Canada during the October-May 1930-31
Imports of United States bacon into the United Kingdom continue very'
small, amounting for the month of May to but 78,000 pounds and for the entire
season to the end of May to slightly over 1,000,000 pounds. During the same
months of 1929-30, British imports of bacon from the United States totaled
American short cut gteeh hams were quoted on the Liverpool market
at an average for the month of June at $216951 or 67 cents above the May
average. This is the highest June average since 1929, amounting to $2.12
more than the comparable 1935 figure.
Total ham imports into the United Kingdom have been fairly well
maintained during the first 8 months of the season, reaching nearly
45,000,000 pounds as against about 48,000,000 for comparable months of the
1934-35 period. They represent, however, a decline of 25 percent from
October-May imports of the 1932-33 season, and of 38 percent from those of
1929-30. Imports of hams from the United States increased somewhat during
May, amounting, however, to less than 4,000,000 pounds. The total imports
into the United Kingdom from the United States for the current season of
22,000,000 pounds represent decreases from tho-se of comparable months of
the 1934-35, 1933-34, and 1932-33 seasons of 22 percent, 31 percent, and
37 percent, respectively. The United States so far this season has furnish-
ed 50 percoat of total imports into the United Kingdom, whereas in the
1929-30 period it supplied 85 percent. During October-May 1935-36, receipts
of Canadian ham in the British market amounted to about 38 percent of the
Liverpool average quotations on refined lard for the month of June
fell to $11.83, 42 cents below the previous months average and $1.81 under
the average price in June last year. Aside from the June 1935 average,
this was the highest for the month since 1929. Lard imports into the
United Kingdom for the current season, October 1 to May 31, reached a total
of less than 110,000,000 pounds. This figure represents a decline of 37
percent from 1934-35 comparable imports and of 50 percent from those of 2
years ago. The United States thus far this season has supplied only 36
percent of this greatly reduced total compared with 70 percent in the same
period of last year and 92 percent in 1933-34. British lard imports from
the United States have declined over 80 percent during the last 2 years.
The increase in German hog numbers noted in recent months has been
reflected in an increase in receipts and slaughter of hogs in May, when
slaughter was larger than for any month since early 1935. For the first
8 months of the 1935-36 season, however, hog receipts were still about
27 percent smaller than in the corresponding 1934-35 period, according
to figures covering 14 points transmitted by the Berlin office of the
Foreign Agricultural Service. Slaughter at 36 centers for the period
October to May 1935-36 was about 28 percent below comparable 1934-35 figures.
The number of young stock and breeding sows appearing in the June 1936 hog
census indicates a continuance of the increase in marketable hogs. Total
hog numbers in June this year were placed at 22,200,000 head, or 11 percent
larger than a year earlier. Marketable hogs aged 6 months to 1 year were
up 7 percent last month over a year earlier, while brood sows in the same
age group increased 18 percent. The number of all young pigs under 6 months
old in June this year was 12 percent larger than in 1935.
Germany continues to import somewhat larger quantities of hog products
this year than last, but imports in May were smaller than in other recent
months. The general level of imports, however, continues relatively low.
Imports of lard in May of 5,489,000 pounds were the smallest since August
1935. The-United States was the chief supplier of the reduced total,
accounting for nearly 2,000,000 pounds, or about 36 percent. Brazil was
next, with slightly more than 1,000,000 pounds. At least nine other
countries supplied lard to Germany during May, of which Hungary was the
most important. For the period' January-May, however, the United States
supplied less than 3,000,000 pounds, or only about 7 percent of a total of
40,322,000 pounds. For the first 8 months of the 1935-36 season, Germany
imported about 80 percent more lard than in the corresponding period of
1934-35. Bacon imports in May, nearly all of which came from the Nether-
lan4s, were smaller than in either the preceding month or in the correspond-
ing month a year earlier, reaching only 1,100,000 pounds. Total bacon
imports into Germany in the period October-May 1935-36 were about 12 percent
smaller than those of a year. earlier.
Hogs and pork products Indices of foreign supplies and demand
: : Oct.-May
Country : : 1909-10 : 1924-25 : : : :
and item : Unit :to 1913-14:to 1928-29:1932-33:1933-34:1934-35:1935-36
domestic fresh :1,000 :
pork, London ..:pounds:
Denmark ......: "
Irish F.State.: :
United States.: "
Canada .......: "
Others .......: "
Total ......: :
Ham, total ...: "
Lard, total ..: "
Hogs, inspected: 1000ts:
Production- : :
14 cities ...: :
Hog slaughter :
36 centers ..: "
Imorts- :1,000 :
Bacon, total .: pounds:
Lard, total ..: "
Eports- : :
Bacon- :1,000 :
United Kingdom: pounds:
Germany ...... :
Cuba ........: :
Total ......: "
United Kingdom: "
Total ......: :
United Kingdom: "
Germany .....: "
Cuba .........: "
Netherlands ..: "
Total .... :
average : : : :
: : : :
: : :
42,025 : 60,597 50,976: 57,494:62,106
6 6 5
C S S
S S 6
42,025 : 60,597: 50,976: 57,494: 62,106
: .5 : :
: 14,539: 22,359:- 32,345: 35,797
: 3,183:: 3,543: 2,221: 1,087
: 18,883: -67,984: 74,810: 67,767
: 59371: 2,119: 47,612: 44,607
1,880 : 1,935:
2,198 : 2,119:
2,731 : 2,873:
12,065 : 21,713:
32,856 : 32,049:
45,404 : 1,815:
7,931 : 1,189:
14,027 : 2,918:
96,436 : 11,123;
95,006 : 37,779:
113,979 : -14,099:
: 7,848: 10,282:
: 30,125: 19,022:
Hogs and pork products: Foreign and domestic average prices per 100
pounds for the month indicated, and stoc6i at the end of each month
: 1909- : 1925- : : :
Item : 1913 : 1929 : May April : May
: average : average : 1935' : 1936 : 1936
: Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars Dollars
Hogs, Chicago, basis :
packers' and. ship- .
perst quotations ....: 7.21 11.13 9.31 10.47 9.58
Corn,- Chicago, : .
No. 3 Yellow .........: 1.16 1.71 1.52; 11.3* 1.13
Hogs,. heavy, Berlin :
live weight ........: 10.96 13.89 15.69 17.70 17.70
Barley, Leipzig ........: 1.75 2.44 3.14 3.33 3.37
Chicago .............: 10.68 14.74 14.55- 11.90 11.12
Liverpool ...........: 11.280 15.16 13 01 13.-85 12.25
Hamburg ............: 12.65 15.67 --- 12.78 .11.83
American short cut :
green hams ....: 14.80 24.39 19.56 20.88 21..28
bellies .........: 21.19 14.25 Nominal Nominal
sides ...........: 15.60 25.16 20.16 20.46 20.09
Canadian green :
sides ...........: 14.64 22.76 17.91 17.70 17.55
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Processed pork 1/ ...: 780,179 503,413 457,402 440,618
Lard in cold
storage ........: 145,332 89,986 83,615 99,656
l/ Dry salt cured and in process
of cure, and frozen.
of cure; pickled, cured, and in process
STORAGE HOLDINGS OF PORK AND LARD ON FIRST OF EACH MONTH.
AVERAGE 1930-34 AND 1934 TO DATE
OCT. NOV. C
U S DEPARTMHET OF AGRICULTURE
)EC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT
NEG 31410 SuRI AU OF ACRiC LUL URAL LCOiOMIu S
FIGURE I.- STORAGE HOLDINGS OF PORK USUALLY INCREASE
FROM EARLY NOVEMBER UNTIL FEBRUARY OR MARCH AND THEN DE-
CLINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE HOG MARKETING YEAR.
STOaKS OF PORK THIS YEAR HAVE BEEN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
BUT THEY HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN TO DECLINE* STOCKS OF
LARD USUALLY INCREASE FROM DECEMBER TO AUQUST AND THEN
DECLINE FROM SEPTEMBER TO NOVEMBER* ALTHOUGH LARD STOCKS
THIS YEAR ARE BELOW AVERAGE, THE USUAL SEASONAL INCREASE
HAS OCCURRED SINCE LAST DECEMBER.
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
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