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SOSITORY
Decepibq 13, T933

:g ~ WORLD HOG AND PORK PROJECTS /

Summary

81agh4ter supplies of hogs in United States during' .ovmber were un-

la~ge and prices declined sharply. In Europe suppliea.also increased

t,: but. hog prices averaged higher during the month. Domestic whole-

rieles of pork tended to be about steady during November, but prices on

W mh market advanced.

me.:! imports into the United Kingdom during October were about 27 per-

iler "ta a year earlier, and October ham imports were the smallest

*I: it,:sino 1930. Lard imports into Great Britain thus far this year

~pidfrably1 larger than those of last year. Imports of lard into
i:sth ugh still much smaller than in 1932, have been increasing dur-

lt months. The United States is the major source of lard imports

e 0'-' Countries.

:': ti slaughter supplies of hogs during the remainder of the winter

i 8 season (December 1933 to April 1934) are expected to be considerably

.l.br than a year earlier. It now seems probable that inspected commercial
httr during this period will be the smallest since 1921-22 at least.

recent estimate of hog numbers in Denmark indicates a further ro-

a tt"n n numbers. Efforts are being made by the Danish Government to ro-

r e hog production in line with the reduced outlet for Danish bacon in

Britain. A summary of a report on the operations and effects of the

.h hog control plan appears in this issue.




HP-49
United States

A marked increase in slaughter supplies of hogs during November result-
ed in a rather sharp decline in hog prices during the last half of the month.
Prices in late November and early December were down to the lowest level
reached since early March. The Chicago average price during the week ended
December 2 was $3.58 per 100 pounds, The avcrrge price of hogs at Chicago for
the entire month of November was about $4.04 compared with $4.43 in October
and $3.34 in November 1932.

The processing tax on hog slaughter levied in connection with the hog pro-r
duction control program became effective November 5, 1933 at the rate of 50
cents per 100 pounds (live weight). This rate was raised to $1.00 per 100
pounds on December 1, and according to the official announcement it will be
raised to $1.50 on January 1 and to $2.00 on February 1.

In addition to the relatively large slaughter, the hog market during
November was also characterized by several interruptions to the normal course
of trade. During the second week of the month a deadlock prevailed between
the buying and selling interests at the Chicago public stockyards, the largest
public market. Purchases of small numbers of hogs by the Federal Surplus
Relief Administration partly relieved the large accumulation of hogs at the
Chicago yards. The deadlock was finally broken on November 17. Strikes at
packing plants and stockyards also occurred during the month, and these.dis-
rupted the marketing and processing of hogs to sbme extent.

Hog slaughter under Federal inspection during November totaled 4,501,000
head, which was about 19 percent larger than in November 1932, and was the
fourth 1.rgest for the month on record. The increase in slaughter in November
over that of October of about 1,450,000 head, or 47 percent, was unusually
larga for this period. Several factors contributed to the large increase in
November hog slaughter. Producers apparently withheld hogs from market during
October in the anticipation of higher prices, and the break in hog prices in
late October probably resulted in large marketing in November. Corn prices
also advanced during the latter month and the hog-corn price ratio became re-
latively unfavorable for feeding. This unfavorable ratio along with shortage
of feed supplies in some sections, also encouraged marketing to some extent.
Reports fror the Western Corn Belt also indicate that some farmers were dis-
posing of hogs in order to have more corn available for the corn loan which
is being extended by the Federal Government to farmers in several Corn Belt
States.

Corn prices rose sharply during the first half of November, but part of
the advance was lost late in the month and in early December. The average
price of No. 3 Yellow corn at Chicago in November was 44.4 cents per bushel
compared with 40.2 cents in October, and 24.9 cents in November a year ago.
The higher corn prices and lower hog prices resulted in a decline in the hog-
corn price rctio. Based on farm prices as of the 15th of the month, this
ratio for Corn Belt States was 10.4 in November compared with 13.9 in October
and 18.5 for November 1932.

Wholesale prices of fresh pork declined sharply during November, but
prices of most cuts of cured pork and of lard were steady to slightly higher
during the nonth. The composite wholesale price of hog products at New York
for November overaged $11.85 per 100 pounds, while in October it was $11.46
..... i :i~iS





HP-49 -3-
and in November last year $10.17.

Total exports of hog products during October were about the same
as in September and in October last year. As compared with October a year
earlier, a small decrease in lard exports was about offset by an increase in
exports of pork. Shipments of pork from the principal ports during November
were somewhat larger than those of a year earlier but lard shipments were
about the same.

Exports of hams and shoulders during November continued to decline, com-
pared with the preceding month, but they were slightly larger than in the
corresponding month in 1932. The decrease in shipments of these cuts from
those in September was largely the result of the further reduction in the
British import quota for bacon and hams. Exports of hams and shoulders in
November amounted to 5,745,000 pounds, of which 5,061,000 pounds were'consign-
ed to the United Kingdom. Bacon exports, although relatively small, continued
to increase during October. The total of 2,304,000 pounds was larger than
that of September or of October 1932. As has been the case during m~st of
1933, shipments of bacon were mostly in small quantities to several countries
which were of no importance in the United States export bacon trade nrior to

Total lard exports in October amounted to 50,296,000 pounds compared
with 53,840,000 pounds in October last year. Takings of United States lard
bt Gront Britain, the leading export outlet, totaled 22,493,000 pounds which
was slightly larger than those of October a year earlier. Exports )f lard to
Germany have increased considerably from the very low level of about
: Jb ,060 pdu pounds'in July of this year. Shipments in October amounted to
i$,,695,000 pounds compared with 10,158,000 pounds in September and 4,425,000
in Angust. Lard exports to Germany, however, have been considerably below
those of a year ago in each of the last 5 months, but shipments to that
Country hve- not been curtailed as much as was expected earlier because of the
very hich German import duty on lard. The decline in the exchange vuluc of
the dollar during recent months has been an important factor in the holding
of a fairly large proportion of the German lard trade. Shipments of lard to
the Netherlands in October were relatively larcc, but since Dutch ports serve
nearly 1ll countries of western Europe, the final destination of exports to
' the Netherlands cannot be readily determined.

Because of the purchase of about 6,200,000 pigs for slaughter on .,overn-
ment account in August and September in connection with the hog production
S control program of the Agricultural Adjustment ALininistration, it was estimated
earlier that inspected hoa slaughter .luring winter :anrketin! season (October,
1933 to April, 1934) would be considerably smaller then that of the winter of
1932-33. Most of the pigs slaughtered under production control program nomal-
ly would have been marketed after January 1, 1934. Slaughter during the first
S2 months of the winter season, October and November, was about 175,000 '.ad
larger then in those months last year. In view of the much smnllor supplies
of'higs available, it now seems probable that inspected slaughter will be
materially smaller than a year ago during the rcrainder of the winter .narketinG
season. It is not unlikely that commercial slaughter supplies from Pec; Lber
to April will be the. smallest for that period since 1921-22. In nAlition to
the reduction in numbers slaughtered, average weights of hogs .rarketcod this
S winter probably will be somewhat lighter than those of last winter becCauc of
the relatively unfavorable relation between hog prices and corn prices.







Pork and lard: Stocks in cold-storage warehouses and meat-packing
establishments in the United States on the first of each month,
average 1928-1932, annual 1929-1933


5-b ear~


: 5-; ear
Date : average
: 1928-1932


.5...


..e..
..**.
* ** *


May ......
June .....
July .....
Aug. .....
Sept. ....
Oct. ..
Nov. .....
Dec ....


1,000
S pounds
:579,790
716,288
:856,406
861,712
852,504
S817,787
:787,088
727,968
: 625,263
507,230
419,162
: 432,711


Pork: Frozen, cured, and in process of cure


1929

1,000
pounds
670,039 :
838,280
944,742
921,961
923,558
870,785
841,937
814,354
719,400
600,498 :
491,402
489,629 :


130

1,000
pounds
620,986 :
687,106
785,564 :
752,996 :
711,700 :
675,167 :
679,221
651,444 :
550,959 :
447,427 :
356,806 :
411,704


1931

1,000 :
pounds
521,192 :
726,264 :
853,408
843,671
867,524 :
827,751
774,651
711,811 :
595,063 :
474,887 :
380,895 :
396,563


1932 : 1933

1,000 : 1,000
pounds :pounds
563,306 : 490,850
674,151 : 575,084
812,399 : 609,321
792,197 : 610,240
799,064 : 630,360
795,866 : 670,553
724,271 : 760,730
643,052 : 808,322
578,876 : 756,701
498,253 :1/628,965
433,548 :1/493,094
403,898 :


Lard


Jan. e....:
Feb. .....:
Mar. .....:
Apr. .....:
May ......
June .....:
July .....
Aug. .....:
Sept. ....:


Oct.
Nov.
Dec.


0@
*SSC*


64,966
91,562
114,940
126,577
133,888
143,260
156,085
153,969
128,693
96,053
58,741
46,389


85,217
140,526
173,864
179,428
184,748
183,490
199,699
203,010
180,085
153,690
99,8-15
68,517


82,098
92,171
111,914
105,067
104,905
115,270
120,322
118 353
88,868
59,732
36,211
31,582


51,434
62,624
74,977
78,249
95,693
103,366
115,561
121,926
96,047
69,296
39,766
34,824


61,224
78,430
92,861
105,635
111,007
128,103
130,363
121,618
100,577
70,656
34,410
29,766


: 41,088
: -52,841
: 58,1 82
61,674
. 71,895
110,889
186,250
219,259
:224,476
:1/192,502
:1/133,850


Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Compiled from reports made by cold-
storage establishments.
1/ Preliminary.

C a ada

During November bacon hog prices at Toronto advanced, despite heavier
marketing, the average for the 4-week period ended November 30 being $6.37
per 100 pounds in United States currency, compared with the monthly average
of $5.66 for October. The November price this year was over $2.00 higher
than during November, 1932.

idarketings for the 4 weeks of November reached 290,000 head, an increase
of 10 percent above the samo period a year ago. For the first 48 weeks of
1933 ended November 30, marketing reached 2,886,000 head, and were 2 percent


Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.


HP-49


-4-





EP-49


greater than for the same period last year. Fifty-eight percent of the total
or 1,687,000 head consisted of select and bacon hogs, the increase in these
two types combined being 6 percent above last year.

In six 1/ provinces which usually produce about 51 percent of the
total number of hogs in Canada, the number in June, 1933 was 2,018,600 head
or a reduction of 21 percent below the same date last year. The only pro-
vinces not reporting so'far are Ontario and Quebec. Those two provinces,
however, produce almost half the total number in Canada, Ontario alone pro-
ducing about 30 percent of the total.

A recent letter from the Canadian Industrial and Development Council
to farmers urged them to feed their select and bacon hogs until they reached
a weight between 200 and 220 pounds, when not too full of feed, before
marketing them. It was pointed out that 190 pounds for selects and 180 pounds
for bacons were the minimum weights that could be accepted. It was also
stated that the bulk of the hogs being marketed ranged in weight from 180 to
i" ;300 pounds at which weights many were unfinished.

SExports of bacon to Great Britain for the current yenr up to the end
of October, reached 57,184,000 pounds, an increase of 109 percent above the
ame period last year. Practically the total quantity of bacon exported
want to Great Britain as exports to the United States during the same period
amo'auntod to only 757,000 pounds compared with 1,319,000 pounds last year. Of
[rl 5,020,000 pounds of pork, other than bacon, exported, 1,633,000 pounds
S tp Wto Great. Britain, a. reduction of. 56 percent as compared with the same
period last year. Lard exports for the 10-month period amounted to only
i* ,912,000 or about two thirds of last season's export. Great Britain took
2,387,000 pounds compared with 4,281,000 pounds in 1932.

SUnited Kingdom and Irish Free State

The advance in sterling prices of bacon incidental to import reductions
Ordered as of November 10 was not maintained, according to cabled advices
from Agricultural Attache E. A. Foley at London. Prices, however, did not
aii'i:return to the levels of earlier in the month. The Liverpool average for
SNovember on Danish Wiltshire sides advanced to $17.63 per 100 pounds, up
I*'1.14 from the October figure. A considerable share of the advance in dollar
values in this and other Liverpool quotations was the result of currency
exchange developments. Canadian green sides gained $1.53 over October to
reach $15.53, while American green bellies at $14.74 were up 72 cents up to
November 25. The reduction in imports had not yet created any shortage in
bacon according to meat specialist H. E. Reed, The market was generally quiet
during the month. The accumulation of continental bacon reported in October
was practically cleared.

Data relative to domestic supplies, which are supposed to make up for
the reductions in imports, are not available. Prices of domestic bacon have
followed continental prices. Demand for bacon is light at this time of year.
The small supplies of United States bacon have met a quiet market at the
l Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick,
and British Columbia.


-5-




HP-49 -6- ..

somewhat higher prices indicated. Total bacon imports in October, at about
83,000,000 pounds, were at about the same levels as in the 2 preceding
months, but about 31,000,000 pounds under the imports of October 1932, the
period of record imports of that item. October imports from Denmark were
down to 47,500,000 pounds, the lowest figure for any month since April 1930.
The October figure was only slightly above the monthly average prevailing in
the seasons 1924-25 to 1928-29. Receipts from other continental countries
were generally reduced. The October 1933 imports from Canada, however, rose
to 6,300,000 pounds, also about in line with the average cited.

The upward November movement in British pork prices brought the
Liverpool average price of American short cut green hams up to $16.79 per
100 pounds. That figure was $2.47 above the October level and was about
double the price of a year ago. Seasonal influences making for higher prices
got under way a little earlier this year than usual, with considerable help
being given by currency exchange conditions. The tendency is for a decline
in December, but this year the volume control to which the trade is being
subjected may alter price movements. October ham imports, at 6,992,000 pounds,
were the smallest for that month since 1930. Stocks at Liverpool on November
1 were slightly smaller than those of a month earlier, but were considerably
below those of November 1, 1932.

The easier tendency in the British lard market in November reduced
the monthly Liverpool average of American refined lard to $7.14 per 100 pounds.
That figure was 36 cents under the October average and 12 cents below the
average for November 193,. Lard stocks at Liverpool on December 1, at about
7,000,000 pounds, were below the unusually high levels reached in the 3
preceding months, but were nearly five times larger than those of a year earlier
Lard imports have been'consistently larger this year than last. The November
receipts at Liverpool carried an that tendency. Total British imports of lard
in October, at more than 25,000,000 pounds, were below the figures of the
preceding 3 months, but exceeded the October figures of most post-war years
for that month.

In fresh pork, London Central M.rket supplies of the domestic and Irish
product were seasonally larger in November, but such receipts for recent months
have been running behind last year's figures. The decline from last year
has been great enough to offset the considerable increase in imports of frozen
pork this year, principally from New Zealand. October imports from that
source, however, were smaller than in September. The pork season was in full
swing by late November and prices have advanced. English pork prices reached
the highest levels recorded since May 1931. Average prices of competitive
meats have not made similar advances; prices of Argentine chilled beef have
been declining since late October. The scheme for aiding the British hog in-
dustry is now in effect in England rnd Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland,
and has attracted a substantial number of hogs to the cured pork trade which
formerly would have been marketed fresh.

Countries important in British market supplies

Denmark

Unofficial returns on bacon receipts at British markets during
November indicate that shipments from Denmark were smaller than in OctOMr,
.I. :: d





HP-4?


particularly toward the end of the month. Indications are that, as against
figures for November 1932, current shipments are about 33 percent below those of
a year ago. Denmark is taking measures to confine exports of bacon to the limits
set by the current British pork import quotas, under which Denmark is guaranteed
at least 62 percent of the total trade in non-Empire cured pork. A summary of
the Danish hog control plan appears or paCe 8 .

-On October 14, 1933 the number of hogs in Denmark was estimated at
4,196,000 head, a reduction of 13 percent below the number on hand on November
19, 1932. While the latest estimate is not strictly comparable with that of
1932, being about a month earlier, the estimate for November 1932 is the only
one available for about the same time of the year. The number of brood sows
in farrow on October 14, 1933 was 244,000 or 24 percent less than in November.
1932, and the total number of brood sows was 405,0%0 or 16 percent less. The
number of hogs other than boars of 4 months and over and brood sows, was
3,767,000 this year compared with 4,314,000 in November 1932. As the method
of classification has been changed from an age basis to a weight basis, it is
impossible to make direct comparisons of the different kinds.

Danish hog numbers have declined each quarter this year, except during
tha quarter from April to Juno when they remained about the same. The number
of brood sows and those in farrow, however, declined each quarter. The per-
centage difference in numbers on October 15, 1933 as compared with the July
15, 1933 estimate was as follows: Brood sows in farrow (87.1 percent); brood
sows not in farrow (98.2 percent); suckling pigs (89.0 percent); hogs under
77 ~unds (100.6 pprcant); hogs 77 to 132 pounds (95.4 percent); hogs of
.152 pounds'and over (99.8'percent).


Denmark: Number of hogs by classes at various dates, 1932 and 1933

: Boars : Brood sows : Hogs : Pigs : Pigs
4 : : : 4 : 2 : under
Date :months : In : Not :Total :months : to : 2 : Total
: and ;farrow : in :: and : 4 :months :
: over : / farroww : : over :months
:Thou- :Thou- :Thou- :Thou- :Thou- :Thou- :Thou- :Thou-
: sas ds :sands :ss.nds :ssnds : s.nds :"snds :srjds :s hands

J .n. 15, 1932 : 355 : 195 : 550 : 1,320 : 1,S32 : 1,655 : 5,457
June 20, 1932 : 29 : Z36 : 157 : 493 : 1,198 : 1,688 : 1,478 : 4,886
Nov. 19, 1932 : 28 : 321: 16 : 484 : 1,260 : 1,69 : 1,95 : 4,826
Jan. 23, 1933 : i- T08 474 : f 14,- 1,480 : 1,421 : 4 5 "
Apr. 18, 1933 : 26 : 303 : 158 s 461 : 1,073 : 1,410 : 1,414 : 4,334
OthLr hogs
S2 :77 t-o-J' ndE-r :Suck---:--
: bs. : 132 : 77 :likg :Tut:.i
: & over: lb3. : bs. :pigs :
July 15, 1933 : 25 : 2-- : 164 : 444 : '27:-- 'TY 9T 0a:.',' :4,''
Oct. 14, 1933 : 24 : :24 : 161 : 405 : 825 : 951: 1,075: 916 :4,196
Di'vsion of Statioticr.l and" 'Hstorical Rese,.rc-. Compiled from Sttuitiztisk
Eftcrrotningor published by t'he Statisticnl Dopartmentt uf Dunmrrk, L;.'y .26,1933
and orrlior issues. July 15, 1933 and October 14, 1933 Lndbrugsr-.aduts
Moddololsor, November 2, 1933, p. 1073.
I/ Progn nt sows.


-7-





HP-49 -8-
Operation and Effects of Danish Hog Pontrol Plan i/

From 1920 to 1932 hog production in Denmark expanded rapidly. Pre-war .
levels of production were reached in 1923 and since that date the annual
hog slaughter has more than doubled. This expansion followed closely the
upward trend in dairy production due to the important place occupied by
skim milk in the hog feeding practices in Denmark. Production is almost
entirely confined to bacon-type hogs and production and marketing problems
are characterized by an almost complete dependence on the bacon market in
the United Kingdom. Exports represent 80 percent of the total slaughter. and
in some years as much as 99 percent of the bacon exports have been shipped
to England.

Up to 1926, Denmark met little competition in the British market from
bacon produced in other continental European countries. In that year, how-
ever, sanitary restrictions on British imports of continental fresh meat
forced iTetherlands to turn its extensive fresh pork export trade into bacon.
From 1926 to 1932, the Baltic States and Poland, heretofore, virtually un-
known in the British bacon trade, entered the field by subsidizing their pork
industries. By 1932 the resultant heavy supplies of cured pork reaching
British markets from all sources had so reduced prices that reduction in hog
numbers in Denmark was a logical response.' Since January 1932, when the Danish..
hog census returns indicated an all-time record high level, reduction in
numbers has been urged officially.

A reduction in hog production was moreover necessitated-by action of
Great Britain in late 1932 in restricting imports of bacon by voluntary quotas
or agreements. In accordance with a recent trade treaty Denmark is assured of
62 percent of the British import business in cured pork but progressive reduc-
tions in the total British quota exceeded the rate of reduction in hog numbers
and the Danish Government recognized the necessity of instituting measures to
bring about a further reduction and to control production.

Largely as a result of the British policy of restricted cured pork
imports, the Danish Hog Control Law became effective in February 1933. Danish
agricultural affairs are managed principally through a Council representing
farmers' organizations. The Ministry of Agriculture is almost exclusively an
administrative body, leaving policy-making to the Council. The law empowers
the Minister of Agriculture, with the approval of the Council, to administer
certain rcgul.tions for the control of hog production and slaughter. In
addition to setting up the necessary administrative machinery and providing
penalties for noncompliance with the regulations, the outstanding authority
granted the Minister is that which allows him to:

a. Impose and collect fees on hog slaughtering.

b. Fix one price for a given number of hogs and a lower price for
"surplus" hogs.

Ij Summnary of a report from H. E. Reed, Meat Specialist in Europe for the
Foreign Agricultural Service. Mimeographed copies of the full report are
being prepared and may be secured by addressing the Foreign Agricultural Ser-
vice, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Washington, D. C.







HP-49 -9-
Objects of the Hog Control Law

Briefly summarized, the objects of the Danish Hog Control Law L.re to:

a. Reduce Danish hog production to the degree made necessary by
British pork import quotas and the requirements of the home
market.

b. Restrict cured pork exports to Groat Britain to the amount
admissable under British import restrictions.

c. Maintain the domestic bacon market price at the l-;vel of the
British market price, in which the leading problem is the
disposition of so-called "surplus" hogs.

Control Methods Employed

.The following is an outline of the principal control features in the
Danish scheme:

a. Issuing cards to producers for the probable number of hogs
which the British and home markets will take and paying
for such hogs a price determined by prevailing bacon prices
in Great Brit-.in.

Sb Discouraging production in excess of the above amounts by paying
ii a substantially lower price for hogs for which cards have not
been issued.

I c. Making up from a special fund the losses incurred in the ma.rket-
ing of surplus bacon and pork, the fund being derived from
slaughter taxes and special fees.

The method of allotting hog cards to producers is based upon a c.lculn-
'tion which takes into consideration:

a. The assessed value of land in the farm.

b. The amount of skim-milk, or its equivalent in buttermilk or
whey, used by the farmer in 1932.

c. Deliveries of hogs made in 1932.

In addition, each farm is allotted 5 cards regardless of its size.
In no case, however, is a producer allowed cards in excess of the number of
hogs delivered in 1932. There have been controversies in respect to the
bases of prorating "cards" among producers and changes effective Jinua.ry 1,
1934 were recently made to satisfy some of the objections to the original
formula of allotments.





HP-49


Financing and Operation of the Control Plan

Administration of the plan is financed as follows:

a. A tax of Kr. 2 (equivalent to 48 cents on November 21) per head
on all hogs weighing over 110 pounds (except aged sows and boars)
slaughtered for both domestic and export trade. Tax became
effective March 6, 1933.

b. An additional special fee paid by slaughterers and collected by
them from producers for each bacon hog marketed without a
permit card. The fee amounts to the difference between the
British market price for bacon and the prices realized from the
marketing of surplus hog products in other foreign markets.

Prices and special fees are published every .Saturday, effective for the
following weck. The committee in charge of the plan buys from bacon factories
all supplies at the prevailing British price, which the factories are unable
to dispose of under the British import quota, or at home at the price set.
Losses from sales of this surplus are expected to be met from the fund secur-
ed from the slaughter taxes and special fees.

The Dvnish hog control plan does not restrict production to a specified J
total number of hoes but influences production by the low prices paid for
production in excess of th-e allotment of "cards". -.The feepayable..fao. the.,
slau.gter of hogs without cards lowers the net price of producers to the
price fixed for surplus hogs. This fee has reached as high as 8.3 cents per
p3und with a net price to farmers of 5.5 cents, when at the same time the
price paid to farmers for dressed h:;:s with cards was 13.8 cents per pound.
Surplus production is discouraged by increasing the fee.

Various methods have been. adopted to dispose )f the surplus or the
marketing in excess of the British quota and domestic consumption at the
British price level. The export movement of countries other than England
has b.en subsidized and reciprocal tra-'. agreements have been concluded.
Shipments to foreign countries oD1.r than Zngl,:nd have not, however, assumed
great proportions anr have never e.cceeded 3 percent of the total of weekly
shipments. Accumulated stocks have been reduced somewhat by selling sides to
hog producers at low prices (5.7 cents per pound). The problem of disposal
of surplus supplies still exists.

Results of the Plan to Date

The Danish hog control plan has not been in effect long enough to
indic-te very definitely the effectiveness of the measure as such in hasten-
ing the reduction of total Dr-ish hog numbers. Such a sharp reduction in
hog numbers had taken place prier t) the adoption of the plan that further
reductions and the surplus problem have been considerably simplified. From
July 15, 1931, the peric point, to April 15, 1933, the number of sows in
Denmarkc declined 26 percent. Thnat period included only about 2 months during
which the control plan was in effect. By July 15, 1933, the number of sows
Was itvn 29 percent from the peak. This further decline in number of sows
is attributed to the working of the card system.


-10-







In addition to a reduction in breeding operations to levels more close-
ly in keeping with the export and home outlets the plan has brought about a
liquidation in numbers of hogs on hand when the plan was put into operation.
The plan apparently brought about additional marketing of live hogs during
the 9-month period January 1 to September 30 of 20,000 head compared to the
corresponding period a year earlier. There is no special tax issued on
slaughter of pigs under 110 pounds dressed weight and marketing of pigs of
this weight have increased greatly. The control agency recognizes that market-
ing at this light weight is a means of reducing pork production and surplus
numbers. Liquidation of the numbers on hand when the plan was inaugurated
has, therefore, taken three forms, namely, substantial marketing of pigs
'weighing less than 110 pounds; additional marketing of live hogs, fully half
of which were sows, and small marketing of bacon hogs without cards. Such
mar'cetings reached only 12,000 head in the period June-August, 1933.

Mlnrket' prices for domestic consumption have been fixed at the prices
secured on exports to the United Kingdom. Only the quantities which can be
moved at these prices enter the domestic marketing channels. Meanwhile,
price conditions under which the plan is operating are somewhat unique. The
British quota system has raised prices for the bacon so admitted to an excep-
tionally profitable level. The hog-feed ratio based on prices of hogs ex-
ported was 12 in September, 1933, whereas, the ratio computed from the price
of surplus hbgs was about 5.5. A ratio of 8 is considered normal in Denmark.

In September officials anticipated that production and supplies would
be .brought in line-with British and home demand by late 1933 or early 1934,
provided there were no further drastic reductions in the British quota.
Further reductions in the British quota, however, have been recently announced.
Mr. Reed states that as a short-time measure for disposing of the surplus
and for speeding up a reduction in hog numbers, the plen has been fairly
effective. It is admitted that, from the long-time viewpoint, the pl-n has
serious defects. Uncertainties with respect to the all-import.jnt British
market outlet, however, have discouraged attention to long-time control plans.

Other Countries

Most continental countries shipped less bacon to Great Britain in iovem-
ber th-n in October. Nethcrlands, Poland and Lithuania shipped less than in
November 1932, with Sweden sending somcwhc.t more than in that month. Heavy
increases, however, were registered for Canada, end German bacon reapneared in
small quantities for the first time in several months. In Ncw Zeal-nd, Novem-
ber 1 stocks of bacon carcasses were more than three times as large as a year
earlier, and totaled 8,878. Stocks of pork carcasses rt 12,811, were over
twice as large as a year earlier. For the 12 months Novembcr-October 1932-33,
New Zealand killed 64,393 pigs for bacon curing against 23,454 in the preceding
12 months. For porkers, the 1932-33 killings reached -81,460 against 130,745
in 1931-32. The heaviest killings occur from January to May.

Germany

November lord prices at Hamburg, in marks, rose above the October rance
ind were about the same as in September. Exchange movement, however, resulted
in a relatively higher level in dollars, the November average reaching $14.14


HP-49


-11- -





HP-49


per 100 pounds, duty unpaid. That figure is the highest for any month since
April 1929, and the highest for 1ovomber since--1928. The November 1932 i
average was $8.59. The usurl price movement in N6.vemb'er heretofore has been.
downward. The exchange situation was a leading factor in the increased Geirman
imports of lard during October, when prices .in:marks declined considerably
more than did the dollar prices. The October-import figure of 8,800,000 pounad-
was the lc.rgest since last May. The current .figure, however, is nearly
18,700,000 pounds under that of October 1932, and well below corresponding
figures for any recent year.

The German Government control for margarine production is planning an ..
increase in the output allowance for domestic manufacturers, according to ....
Assistant Agricultural Attache I'. F. Christy at Berlin. 1No definite volu :
of increase has been announced, but the supply situation in all animal fats
is held as justifying heavier production. Effective November 14, producers.. *....
were ro-uired to put 50 percent of their output into the cheapest, or house-
hold grade, selling only to holders of fat cards at 38 pfennings per 1/2 kil ..
(13.5 cents per pound at current exchange rates) tax free. Seasonally heavier :i4
consumption of fats in winter months, and the reduced level of lard imports
have prompted the m)ve to increase the margarine output, which is now sold. i'
prices fixed by the Government. The prico6now ruling .are regarded as equity t *,Z j
able to both producers and consumers. Vice Consul Steyne at Hamburg reports..
that by early rovomber stocks of lard brought in before July 19 to escape'.
the tdvancod import duty were nearly exhausted, and that interest in new
supplies was active. An improved business is seen during the rest of 1933iit ..:^
no furt:.r trade restrictions are imposed, but there is"no expectation of;'
anything, li]:e the volume of trade prevailing in other recent years. .

Contrary to usual seasonal tendencies, the Berlin price of heavy hogs,"
in marks, averaged higher in November than in October. Currency exchange
conditions resulted in a considerably sharper advance in the dollar average,
which stood at $15.65 per 100 pounds, an advance of 73 cents over the October:,,
avern%.e. The current figure is nearly double that of a year ago. October
hog receipts were seasonally larger than in other recent months, and slightly :j
above the corresponding 1932 figures. The October slaughter record also made".ei
its usual seasonal gain, and was somewhat higher than that of a year earlier.:
Bacon imports in October, while seaso:'ally larger, continued on the reducOed
scale prevailing in other recent.months.
0ii




Tm


-12-





HP-49


Hogs and pork products: Indices of


foreign'supplies and demand


Oct.


Country
and item


: : 1909-10 : 1924-25 :
: Unit :tol913-14:to1928-29:


WIITED KIIGDOM:
Production-
Supplies,
domestic fresh : 1000 :
pork, London ..:pounds:
i orts-
l.i nihcon- : :
Demnmrk ......: "
Irish F.State "
I United States .: "
Ca. ada ........: :
SOthers ........:
Total ......: "
im, total ......: "
lalrd, total ..... "
18*d.tota


a


*


s

cted..:1000's:


Production-
Hog receipts
14 cities .... "
Hog slaughter
36 centers ....: "
or- : 1000 :
Bacon, total ...:pounds:
Lard, total ....
ITED STATES:
Slaughter-
Hogs,inspected .:1000's:
Exports-
Bacon- : 1000
United Kingdom.;pounds:
Germany ....,.: "
Cuba ***.......: "
Total ....... .
Hams,shoulders .:
United Kingdom.: "
Total ....... :
Lard-
United Kingdom.: "
Germany ....... "
Cuba .........: "
Netherlands ...
Total ....... :


E


-







-


average








20,380 :

14,312 :
1,799 :
4,914 :
41,405 :
6,322
26,821 :






141






379

282
18,871 :


2,421 :


9,453 :
132
627
14,175

9,018 :
10,986 :

9,689
11,515
2,910 :
2,b90
33,825 :
:I
14 :


average





6,747 :


40,385 :
6,261
8,439 :
6,979 :
12,237 :
74,301:
7,979
18,836


39,596 :


219



274

335

2,470 :
20,484 :


3,294


4,726 :
1,491
1,728 :
11,750

9,857 :
11,962 :

15,757
12,942 :
6,661
2, 87 :
52,553 :


1


1930


1931


S1932
:-


1933


7,972


70,906
3,657
967
.172 :
20,107
95,809 :
5,792 :
22,897 :


67,869


160



310

418

1,728
14,364


3,492


1,114
128
677
3,268

4,004
5,259

23,5b4 :
2,908
3,923 :
626
41,596 :
%


__


10,013


71,154
4,335
1,287 :
920
31,356 :
.09,051 :
7,217 :
17,329 :


74,611


247



319

430

4,877
18,641


3,772


572
818 :
663
2,944 :

4, '60
5,628

10,950
14,211 :
4,249 :
1,569 :
43,547 :


2


9,130 :


75,730
2,164
261
1,056 :
35,099 :
114,310
7,497
19,799


74,261 :


189



273

363

4,623
27,55 35


3,60 :


269
23 :
376 :
1,492

4,3b2 :
L,064

21,064
19,50 :M
377 :
',489 :
53,L73 :


r .-


-13-


7,540


47,545
3,251
695
6,310
25,470
83,272
6,992
25,407


48,461


235



275

376

2,446
8,741


3,056


32:
54
28]
2,304

b,063
5,74i

22,462
13,6S%
91
4,916
49,81E


i





iIIIIlliilll iiili flii1 1 l
3 1262 0i8865 070
14 -


Hogs and pork products: Foreign and domestic average prices per 10I.
pounds for the month indicated, and stocks at the end of each mon4t*


*Item


Prices-
Hogs, Chicago,
basis packers'
and shippers'
quotations ......
Corn, Chicago,
No. 3 Yellow ....:
Hogs, heavy,
Berlin; live
.weight ....,....:
Potatoes, Breslau
Speeding ... .. ..:
Barley, Leipzig ...
Lard-
Chicago .........:
Liverpool ..... ..:
Hamburg ..........
Cured pork-
Liverpool-
American short
cut' green hams ,:
American green
bellies ........:
Danish- iiltshire
sides .,,....... :
Canadian green
sides ..... ..

Stocks-
United States-
Processed pork 3/.:
Lard in cold
storage .......


19
t
-I


I
p


09-1913 : 1925-1929
average : average
dollars : Dollars





7.93 : 10.67

1.12 : 1.55


12.27 16.82

.31 .49
1.70 : 2.20

11.20 : 15.51
12.50 : 14.95
25.37 : 15.52



14.30 : 25.19

S : 22.81

15.50 : 24.33

14.87 :2/ 22.71
,000 : 1,000
)ounds : pounds

: 37,982

73,010


: 1
: J
: 4


j/ Basis importer-to-wholesaler quotations.
3/ Dry salt cared and in process of cure; pick
and frozen.


)


0-------O -------


.t


HP-49


: ]:









:













:/.




:/
:
:


l


Oct. :. Septs :
1932 : 1933
dollarss : Dollars :
: :
: .


3.50 4.24 ..
.
.46 : .85 :
: :


8.64 : 13.96

.26 .40 ..
1.79 : 2.65

6.25 6.31 ,
7.22 : 7.67 : i|
8.1t : 13.17 : .:


: C
: : .ii'

9.81 : 15.35 :
S.. i
8.63 Nominal :

8.48 18.44 :
...
C
8.14 : 16..14 .
.,000 : 1,000
)ounds pounds :
:-i
632,163 : 628,965 :

34,358 :" 192,5 02

Three year average
.ed, cured, and in proc.