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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics "" -
*HP-43 J8e 1 DEPOQITORY
HP-43 wJne'' 16, 149&- -
WORLD HOG AND PORK PROSPECTS
Prices of hogs and hog products advanced in both domestic and foreign
markets during May. Hog prices in this country rose to the highest levels
since October, 1931, largely as the result of a marked improvement in the
speculative and storage demand for pork and lard. A continued reduction in
po r supplies in Great Britain resulted in prices of all classes of cured
pfiE in British markets advancing during the month. The advance was relative-
ly greater in terms of dollars than in sterling, due to the appreciation in
Hog slaughter in the United States during May was 11.4 percent l.rger
StbP in April and the second largest slaughter for the month on record.
SBZneag stocks of pork and lard on June 1 were considerably larger than those
f My 1, but were still below the levels of a year earlier. Slaughter sup-
plies in this country to mid-July are expected to be considerably larger than
those of a year earlier, but from mid-July to early October they will probably
The German policy of protection for domestic producers of animal fats
was carried further on May 16 by advancing the lard import duty 50 percent
to. 75 marks per 100 kilos. The new rate wns equivalent on June 2 to $9.40
per 100 pounds., Cured pork import quotas in Great Britain for the period
following June 22 have not yet been officially announced.
*. United St teso
SThe seasonal decline in ho; prices in the United Stntes which beL.an
in late March was checked in mid-April, a;nd, r~tor inc1:n a moderntc 'ilvn.ce
during the latter half of that month, prices rose shnrply duringL thoe first
3 weeks of May. During the week ended 114y 20, tihe average pric" of h.g3 at
Chicago was $5600 per 100 pounds which was $1.70 above that of a year earlier
and the hi.hcst weekly average since October, 1931. Prices declined during
the 3 following weeks and during the week ended June 10 they averaged $4.62
per 100 pounds. the average price at Chicago for the month of May was $4.51
as compared with $3.77 in April and $3.34 in May last year. The price
advance has been lrgely the result of the marked improvement in the in-
dustrial end financial situation. With the sharp rise in the general price
level and the increase in business activity indicating a material increase
in consumer buying power in the near future, the storage demand for hog
products has strengthened materially during the last 2 months.
Slaughter supplies of hogs were large during May. Inspected slaughter
during the month, mounting to 4,286,000 head, was 11.4 percent larger than
in April, 8.8 percent larger than that of May 1932, and the second largest
slaughter for the month on record. The increased supplies apparently were
due largely to the increase in the size of the 1932 fall pig crop, in the
eastern and southern Corn Belt where the market movement of fall pigs occurs
relatively early in the season. The price differential between different
weights of hogs in May was unusually narrow for that month. The relatively
high prices for heavy hogs was due largely to the sharp rise in lard prices
during ; the month. The weights of hogs marketed during May were heavier
than those Df a yecr earlier.
Notwithstanding the improvement in hog prices this spring, the rise
in corn prices was relatively greater; consequently, the hog-corn price
ratio hos become less favorable. The rrtio in the Corn Belt States in mid-
May was 11.7 compared with 13.5 a month earlier and 10.4 a year earlier.
Wholesale prices of cured pork advanced steadily during May and by
the first week in June they were at the highest levels since last September.
Prices at New York, however, have improved relatively less than those at
Chicago. Although prices of fresh pork made some advance during May, the
average during the first week in June were still considerably below those in
early March. Lard prices made a further sharp advance in May and the-aver-
age of $7.50 per 100 pounds at Chicago during the week ended June 3 .as 75
cents higher than that of a month earlier and $2.38 higher than that of a
year earlier. On the average, the rise in hog product prices this spring
was relatively less than the advance in hog prices. The composite wholesale
price of hio products at New York averaged $10.56 per 100 pounds in May, or
the same as in ,ay last year and exceeded that of April this year by only
Storage demand for hog products was strong during May and accumulations,
especially of lard and dry salt meats, were relatively large for the month.
Pork stocks are usually reduced during May, but this' year they were increased
by 38,000,000 pounds to bring the total on June 1 to 668,000,000 pounds.
This total, however, was still 16 percent smaller than that of a year earlier
and 150,000,000 pounds smaller than the 5-year June 1 average. On November 1
at the beginning of the current storage season pork stocks were 53,000,000
pounds larr-cr than those of a year earlier but by March 1 they were 203,000,000
pounds smaller than those on the corresponding date in 1932. Lard stocks,
totalling 110,000,000 pounds on June 1 were 38,000,000 pounds larger than
on May 1 but they were 14 percent smaller than those on June 1, 1932 and
23 percent smaller than the 5-year June 1 average.
Exports of pork during April were larger than in March and also
exceeded those of April last year. Exports of hams and shoulders during the
month amounting to 7,716,000 pounds were 35 percent larger than in March, and
41 percent larger than in April 1932. Practically all of the increase was
in the movement to the United Kingdom. Bacon exports totalled only 979,000
pounds, and were 26 percent below those of a year earlier. Total shipments
of pork from the principal ports during May were larger than those in April.
Lard exports in April amounting to 39,180,000 pounds were 19 percent
smaller than in March. The reduction was entirely the result of a curtailed
movement to the United Kingdom. The sharp advance in lard prices in the
United States relative to prices in British markets restricted lard exports
to the United Kinrdom during the month. Since the suspension of gold
payments, however, prices in this country and those in the United Kingdom
(in terms of dollars) have tended to approach their normal relationship, and
as a result shipments from the principal ports during May exceeded those in
April. Lard exports to Cuba more than doubled during April and increases also
occurred in the movement to Germany and the Nethcrlands. Total lard exports
during both April and May were larger than those of the corresponding months
Hog slaughter during late June and early July last year was unusually
small because of holding back of shipments by producers on account of the low
level of hog prices in early June. Marketings from late July to early October
however, were unusually large. The distribution of supplies from mid-June
to October this year is expected to be greatly different from that of the
corresponding period last year. Supplies to the middle of July are expected
to be considerably larger than those of a year earlier but from mid-July to
early October they will be smaller. The 1932 fall pig crop in the states
which usually contribute the largest proportion of the market supply of hogs
during the cumeer months was much smaller than the unusurally large fall crop
produced in these states in 1931. Present indications point to a considerably
stronger demand for hog products during the remainder of the current market-
ing year than that of the corresponding period last year.
Canadian hog prices continued to advance during the 4 weeks ended !Mny
25. The average price at Toronto (United States currency) for that period
was $5.04 per 100 pounds for bacon hogs compared with $4.59 in April and only
$3.98 in May last year. Prices have bcon rising since February, the
greatest advance taking place in March when the average price at Toronto was
$1.09 above February.
The number of hogs graded ~.t stockyards and packing plants duri.a- the
4 weeks ended eMy 25 was 276,000 head or 15,000 head more than for the same
period a year oao. The total number graded from the beginning of tL.is ye:.r
to MLy 26, was 1,336,000 head, or about 1 percent less thrJa for t.e same
period Ir.st yer.r, but considerably gr:ntcr than in the corresponding period
of 1931. The percentage graded as selects this yeair w--s iG ptercrnt of t.ic
total compared with 15 percent last year. Th.ic is ti. type of ;.og losi~nrt d
in the Ottn.wa Tradle Agreement as acccptabl, to the Britisn market.
Owing to the low prices prevailing the latter part of 1932 there
was a decrease in the number of sows bred for spring farrowing in 1933.
Ontario, where 29 percent of the hogs ir: Canada are found, indicated pros-
pective sow farrowings for the 6 months ended June 1, 1933 at 128,200 as
compared with 150,600 n.st year, states the Canadian Government Annual Market
Revciv for 1932. The prospect for the Western Provinces are for a decrease
in output in 1933, with the falling off noticeable largely in the last 6
months. Although t)tr.l production in Cr.nala iay show a decrease as compared
with 1932, exports of pork products to Great 3ritrin will be materially in-
creased, states the government report, as Canada has a distinct preference,
owing to the British bacon quota s:,sten now in effect.
Last year 1,C08,000,000 p.ou-nds of pork w-ere produced in Canada of which
only 46,061,000 pounds were exported and 964,000,000 pounds consumed at home.
The per capita consumption reached 92 pounds as compared with only 83 pounds
in 1931, 73 in 19;0, panj 80 in 1929. Obviously the -nount exported last year
was far sh)rt Uf tie 280,000,000 pounds fixed as CLanrda's import quota into
the British irarket.
For the 4 months ended April 30, exports of Canadian bacon and hnms
rc:.cnod 15,60,000 pounds, and were over a third larger than exports for the
sajne period last year. Most of the bacon endI hras went to the British market.
Exports to the United Stctes armuunted to only 335,000 pounds and were only
half -s lar .c rs for the s.u..e period a year earlier. Of the 2,477,000 pounds
of other pork exported, 954,000 pound-.s went to the United Kingdom and
468,000 pounds to the United States.
United Ki::ndonm :-d Irish .Free State
Anilource-nents are still lacking with respect to tke cured pork import
allotment sit].ttion ftor June 22. The anticipated reduction of 2.5 percent
from the precc'ind. r;.onth in imports for the month ended on that date is now
in effect, rnd reduced supplies and rising prices characterized the bacon
market through M ,.', according to Meat Specialist H. E. Reed at London.
On tne jbsis of iemporter-to-wholesaler quotations, May averages at Liverpool,
in sterling, show-ed percentage advances over April as follows: American
green bellies, 13; Danish Wiltshire sides, 7.6; Canadian green sides, 11.
The weaker Collar excha-nge situation, however, resulted in the following
relatively greater percent. e gains over April, with the actual average for
May, in dollars s per 100 pounds, in parenthesis: Americon green bellies, 24
($10.18); DE'.nish Wiltshire si.-es, 18 ($14.12); Canadian green sides, 21
($12.30). The upvwrd price movelcnt has been hindered by low purchasing power,
h-wever, ?nd prices in early June receded somewhat from the high May levels.
Denan( for strictly bacon cuts was discouraged also by the unusu-lly
warm ii:-1ic;I wcath:er, b-t the decline was offset partially by an increased
demand fjr boilinL cuts. As the general advance in sterling prices continued,
it beca-ne nore evident that limitcd suppli-.s were maintaining bacon prices,
with bat little assistance from the demaand side. In that respect, London
has -iven th-e "-arl':t more support than have the northern industrial areas.
Prices are now well above those of last year, and additional supply reductions
apparently Lve counteractecd any seasonal tendency toward lower prices. The
supply of United States bacon in British markets remains small, with recent
price advances being maintained. Total bacon imports for April, at 85,000,000
pounds, were smaller than any other month since August 1930 with the excep-
tion of February 1933. Total imports for the current season to April 31
stood 12.7 percent below imports for the same months of 1931-32.
Ham prices advanced during May in spite of larger supplies, the rise
being aided considerably by unusually favorable weather and reduced competi-
tion from gammons. The sterling average at Liverpool was 5.6 percent higher
than in April, with the dollar average up 14 percent to reach $13.54 per
100 pounds. April ham imports were 32 percent larger than in March and 37
percent larger than in April 1932. Larger United States and Canadian ship-
ments are responsible for the increase for the p:.riod Octooer-April 1932-33;
total han imports were 6.6 percent lIrger than figures for the corresponding
1931-32 period. There has been no accumulation of stocks, however, and a
firm market is anticipated.
The advance in lard prices at Liverpool carried the dollar average for
May up to $8.02 per 100 pounds, an advance of 24 percent over April. Sterling
prices also advanced sharply, the May average being 20 percent above April
and more than 25 percent higher than the May 1932 average for sterling.
Stocks of refined lard at Liverpool on June 1 were 1,862,000 pounds, a slight
decline from a month earlier, but somewhat larger than a year ago. Lard im-
ports in April were moderate at about 23,000,000 pounds, but were nearly
double the imports of April 1932. The larger imports of recent months placed
the total for October-April 1932-33 slightly ahead of the corresponding 1931-
In fresh pork, London Central Market receipts of British and Irish
during May were seasonally smaller, aind also below last year's comparable figure
As the season draws to a close, fresh pork prices have been about the same
as those of last year, but frozen pork prices have been well under last year's
levels. Total pork supplies on Smithfield during the season were about the
same as last year. Fresh supplies were smaller than last year, largely as a
result of reduced Irish shipments, but frozen supplies were considerably
larger on account of increased New Zealand shipments. Heavy slaugnter continued
in that country during April, being only slightly smaller than the record
killings in March 1933.
Countries Important in Britich .'.arket Sunpli_es
Denmark shipped from 53,000 to 55,000 bales of Wiltshire sides a week
to Great Britain during May, according to unofficial figures on recuints into
British markets. May receipts this year were larger than last, on acZ:unt of
the Danish slaughterhouse strike of Mac; 1932, but tie general averc-;c ::in-
ments for normal weeks last year ran well ovwr 70,000 balIs during E.r and
June. For the calendar year 1932, 7,841,000 hogs were killedd in Da.isr.
i export slaughter-houses against 7,320,000 in 1931. Netherlands bacon
shipments to London, which tak-es most of the continental bacon reachin- Great
Britain, ran between 2,000 and 4,000 wekklb last month n,.ainst 3,000 to 5,000
i: i May 1932. Export killings in Netherlands reached 1,353,000 head in 1972
against 1,520,100 in 1931 and 1,214,000 in 19i0. Cuirrcnt Poliis cr.lIaiats
to London have ranged between 5,000 Ond 6,000 bales we*.: :kl, ; ..t '., O to
9,000 bales in May 1932. Shipments from other countries .~so :L:'e i':. in
keeping with the import allotment agreL.ment".
The German policy of protection for dormstic producers of animal fats
was carried further by advancing the lard import duty 50 percent to 75
marks per 100 kilos on May 16, according to cabled advices from Berlin office
of the Forcig; Agricultural Service. '.e new rate was equivalent on June
2 to $9.40 per 100 pounds. At par of exchangc, the duty would equal $8.10.
The effectiveness of the now rate is not yut apparent. Hamburg lard quota-
tions in mia-rks before duty payme-nt,, advanced steadily during May, bringing
the monthly rvcer:e in T.irks 17 percent above the April level. Dollar prices
in My, hoev, h Vr, advanced b8 percent over April as a result of the weaker
dollar ;xch.ange position against marks. The averrl' dollar price for May
reached $9.10 rainst $6.34 a 2 e-xr earlier rnd was the highest for any month
since JIoventer 1931.
La.ck of IMa. import figures for Germany prevents observation of the
effect tf the new citiess on lard imnorts. April imports at 9,692,000 pounds
were sonmwhrt lar_'er than those of Mb:rc,, but represented a decline of 55
percent below imnorts in April 1932. The re-uced April movement resulted
in the total iTmports for the period October-April 1932-33 going 5.7 percent
below the corresponding 1931-32 figures. Consul Schnare at Hamburg reports
that ti:e dollar exchange fluctuations have made irTporters slow to negotiate
connit.ients for f-.ture delivery.
The mioderatc advance in dollar values of hngs at Berlin during May
brou,:t tihe average of heavy animals for the r:-onth up to $7.46 per 100 pounds.
The current avercj;c is 21 cents hi.::cer than in April, and 30 cents above the
May 1932 avcrra e. In both comparisons, however, the advance is the result
of the foreign exchange situation. Dollar values in May 1933 were 2.9 percent
higher TLhn in April, but vnlucs in narks averaged 4.5 percent lower in May
than in tihe preceding r.oonth. i.any hog receipts of 14 markets, were about the
same as in April 'vhrn they totaled 251,000 head, and continued to run below
last year's fiurcs. Tie season's total to April 31 was 16.2 percent under
the 1931-32 level. In slaughter also current returns are running smaller
than last -car, with the total to April 30 at 56 centers 13.4 percent below
last season's comparable figarcs. Bacos: imports in April were the sm-llest
for any month h since June 1929.
Hogs and pork products: Indices of foreign supplies and demand
: : Oct..- Apr.
Country : : 1909-10 : '1924-25 : : : :
and item : Unit : tol913-14: to1928-29:1929-30:1930-31:1951-32:1932-33
: *..: average :. average :
domestic fresh:1,.000 :
pork, London..: pounds:
Irish F.State.: "
United Stetes.: ."
Canada .......: "
Others .......: "
Ham, total ....: "
Lard, total *..: "
Bacon ......... "
14 cities ....: "
Hog slagh ter :
36 centers ...: "
Impor : 1000 :
Bacon, total ..:pounds:
Lard, total ...: "
Germany ...... "
Cuba ........: "
Total ......: "
United Kingdom: "
Total .......: "
United Kingdom: "
Germany .....: "
Total ...... "
140,624 : 292,492
111,875 : 66,293
23,571 : 45,364
23,978 : 89,129
300,048 : 526,695
52,215 : 70,379
131,658 : 156,855
1,010 : 1,674
2,612 : 2,366
1,669 : 11,1-16
123,290 : 131,571
19,732 : 29,303
78,385 : 40,387
1,145 : 6,862
4,406 : 12,297
106,958 : 85,390
80,213 : 82,848
2,762 : 99,490
102,520 : 136,501
86,057 : 112,673
21,065 : -d,19C
23,377 : 26,510
285.333 : .137.782
44,370: 49,880: 70,402: 56,724
27,092: .17,370: 18,432: 13,209
:42,158: .16,437: 5,543: 2,-146
9,712: 2,043: 10,056: 13,317
:59,626: 43,200: 45,405: ;8,534
* S *
1,367: 1,151: 1,730: 1,656
1,975: 2,165: 2,162: 1,611
2,528: 2,870: 2,967: 2,470
: : : :
:11,528: 14,099: 26,252: 19,764
29,346: 22,678: 30,372: 27,763
33,78 : 1-,430: 1,106: 1,661
: 1,73D: 319: 1,215: 1,170
9:,-:-.: 6,0[ : -1,408: 2,5-2
76,J1-t: 2,135: 1i,214: 10,212
5-1,113: 39,110: 24,197: 31,b82
68,073: 18,921: 33,838: 37,591
: 5, b95: 26,263: 22,521: 6.80
:30,699: 15,350: 22,457: 25,927
:489,830:309, 66:3.50,092:5361 ,562
Item :1909-1913 .1925-1929
average : average
No. 3 Yellow .....:
Ho s,- heavy,
wei -ht ..........
feeding : ..........:
Hainburc .. .......:
Cured por!: -
cut preen hars..:
United States -
Processed pork d/
Lard in cold
sto rce .........:
dollarss 2 Dollars
8.04 : 12.05
1.11 : 1.65
11.18 : 13.78
.39 : .53
1.77 : 2.37
10.33 : 14.78
11.70 .: 15.02
12.90 : 15.43
14.10 : 23.72
15.00 : 24.55
14.16 :c/ 21.55
.,000 : 1,000
ounds : pounds
a/ Three weeks. N No quotation. c/ Four-year average only.
d/ Dry salt cured and in .process of cure; pickled, cured, and in process of
cures and frozen.
Hogs and pork products: Forei,-n and domestic average prices per 100
pounds.for the month indicated, and stocks at the end of each month
)llars : Dollars
3.88 : 3.77
.46 : .62
7.38 : 7.25
.26 : .27
1.80 : 1.79
5.50 : 6.09
6.32 : 6,47
6.37 : 6.60
L1.57 : 13.54
7.34 : 8.17
L1.06 : 11.96
L,000 : 1,000
pounds : pounds
- 0 -
i AVERAGE, 1921-1930, 1931.AND 193Z TO DATE
OCT. NOV. DEC.
JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY
U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FIGURE I THE ADVANCE IN HOG PRICES,
CONTINUED THROUGH THE THIRD WEEK IN MAY,
OCTOBER, 1931. PRICES DECLINED SOMEWHAT
WELL ABOVE THOSE OF A YEAR EARLIER
NrC *S11 II AU OF AMRIULTUIML CONOiCS
WHICH GOT UNDER WAY IN MID-APRIL THIS YEAR,
WHEN PRICES REACHED THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE
DURING LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE, BUT REMAINED
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