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I TITLED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE -- ..
Bureau of Agricultural Econaoics
S' ashington -- OSITORY
HP- 26 January 15, 1932
:JORLD HOG -!!D P)RIK PROSPECTS
LUZ i' nY
'' Hog prices in both the United States and Europe declined during most of
.I ember, according to the Bureau of agricultural Econo.;ics. In the United
qi, tkea, however, there was some recovery in prices during the last two weeks
ti: the month. Both domestic and foreign slaughter supplies increased seasonally
:..ithg the month. In the United States, slaughter was 28 per cent greater than
itra Niovember and 16 per dent greater than in Decenber 1930. Slaughter in Germany
ire:iac:hed unusually high levels in lIovucber.
The Deconbur 1931 Pig Survey indicated an increase of nearly 20 per count
*:h:.i.e fall pig crop in the United Status.. However, breeding intentions for the
NNS .spring crop as reported by this survey indicated that the number of sows
SfCi' row next spring would be only slightly larger than the number that furrow-
m 1ila the spring of 1931. The Gt.rmnan hog census for Decribor 1, 1931, showed
a 15 per cent reduction in the number of sows in furrow.
Imports of bacon by the Unitud Kingdom during Ilovunbur were snalltr than
:i;,n October, but ware still on a higher level than in lIovinber 1930. United
: tagdom- lard imports on the other hand, incre~.ed during the month, but weru
adilor ctha n in ovonber a year turlier. Total exports of pork products from
Ij e United States in Novorbor w.re considerably sraJllur thlAn in October ..id
,ia. re much below the November 1930 total.
Hog prices advanced during the lust part of December after declining
during the first three weeks of the month to the lowest levels since 1899.
The lowest weekly average price -t Chicago was $4.06 per hundred pounds for
the weck ended Deccnber 19 ,nd the average price for the entire month at that
market w;s .4.20 -s compared to C4.61 in November and I7.92 in December, 1930.
As is usual for this time of ye.r, there h.s been some tendency for the price
spred between light and heavy -;eight hogs to widen iith the decline in the
proportion of light weight hogs in the market receipts. This price margin
of light weight over heavy weight hogs, however, is now only about one-hlf
us large &s a ycir ..go.
The hog-cbrn price r-tio advanced slightly during December. The
decline in corn prices during the month more than offset the decline in hog
prices. Bused on Chicago prices the December ratio was 11.3 as compared with
10.8 in November and 11.5 in December, 1930.
The seasonal increase in hog slaughter during December was greater
than usual. The number of hogs slaughtered under Federal inspection, amount-
ing to 5,397,000, was 27.7 per cent larger than that of the preceding month
and 15.9 per cent larger than the slaughter in December, 1930. Hog slaughter
during the first three months of the current marketing year beginning October,
1931, was 13,376,000 head, which was an increase of 10 per cent over that of
the corresponding period last year, but was not greatly different from the
total slaughter during those months two years ago. The average light weight
of hogs slaughtered during the last three months has been slightly under that
of thc .sme period in 1930.
The December 1931 Pig Survey made by the Lepartuent of .Griculture
in cooperation with the Post Office kDpartniont indicated an increase in the
fall pig crop of 19.7 per cent. This increase combined with the indications
of tne June pig survey -s to the increase in the 1931 spring pig crop gives
a total pig crop for both the United States nd the Corn Belt in 1931 about
9 per cent larger than the total in 1930.
The increase in the full pig crop wvs 21 per cent in the North Central
S,tes (Carn Belt) where over 80 per cent of the corrierciAl hog supply is
produced; 15.8 per cent in the North atlLntic States, 3.7 per cent in the
South Atlantic, 19.2 per cent in the South C:ntral iAnd 33.2 per cent in the
0Jestern. For the United States it was the largest percentage increase in the
fUll pig crop over the previous year reported in the ten years for which
similar surveys have been mLde and second l-rgest for the Corn Belt.
The number of sows bred or to be bred. to furrow in the spring of 1932 U
shown by the survey was about 13 per cent larger than the number furrowed
in the spring of 1931 for the United States but only 5.5 per cent larger for
the Corn Belt. When allowance is LkIde for the spread between Decenber brceding
intentions and farrowings reported the following June, 's showhr by previous
surveys, the estimate of the number 6f sors to be f.rrowing next spring for
the United States as a whole is about 2 per cent larger than in the spring
of 1931 but in the Corn Bolt ..bout 5 per cent smaller.
- 2 -
. a9 -
A larger number of hogs over six months of age, including brood sows
and gilts, on December 1, 1931, than on the same date of 1930 is indicated
by the survey, when the number of.such hogs per farm for the December 1931
survey is compared with corresponding figures from the sane survey of the
previous year. For the North Central States the increase was about 4 per cent,
which corresponds.rather closely with the increase in the 1931 spring pig crop
as shown by the June 1931 survey.
Wholesale prices of cured pork were fairly stable during Lecember but
fresh pork prices declined materially during the last two weeks of the month.
Prices of all weights of fresh loins declined about t2.00 per hundred pounds
during the last half of the month. Prices of 8-10 pound loins at New York
averaged $10.22 per hundred pounds in December as against $12.64 in November
and 618.50 in December, 1930. The average price of smoked hams regular No.
1, 12-14 pounds at New.York was 015.55 in December compared with $17.50 in
November and $24.07 in December a year earlier.
Lard prices declined in.December. The average price of refined lard
at Chicago was '7.65 per hundred pounds in December compared with 8.47 in
November and $10.70 in December, 1930. The December, 1931 average was the
lowest price for the month since 1905.
Total exports of pork products from the United States decreased
materially in November. The decrease was especially marked in the case of
bacon. Exports of hams and shoulders'showed some increase during the month.
Total bacon exports in November amounting to 1,912,000 pounds were
S35 per-cent below the October movement and 45 per cent under the exports of
November, 1930. Practically all of this decrease was due to the reduction in
the exports to Germany. Takings of both the United Kingdom and Cuba increased
somewhat during November.
Lard exports during November also showed a marked decline. The total
movement amounting to 35,205,000 pounds was 19 per cent loss than the October
exports and 17 per cent below those of a year earlier. Takings of both the
united Kingdom and Germany were reduced materially from October, the former
by 19 per cent and the latter by 31 per cent.
The export movement of hams and shoulders increased somewhat during
November. The November total of 6,859,000 pounds was 22 per cent above that
of October but wus 32 per cent below the November 1930 exports. There was a
very marked increase in the Canadian.takings of these cuts, but the movement
to other countries w..s reduced. Exports to the United Kingdam during the
month wore only about one-half as large as in October.
With slaughter considerably larger than a your earlier nd exports
in December, 1931 further reduced, storage stocks of pork Lnd lard were
Increased materially.' Stocks of pork on January 1 jnounting to 559 million
.'pounds, were 165 million pounds or 42 per 'cont larger than those on December
1. They wore 7 per cent larger than those on January 1 last year, but were
about the sano us the 5-year January 1 average. L.rd stocks increased 17
million pounds during 'the month. The total on January 1 was 1 per cent
smaller than on that date a yuar eorliur and w.s 21 per cent smwller than
the 5-your average for January 1.
iMarketin'gs / of hogs'in Canada during the four weeks ended December 23
totaled 268,000 compared with only 163,000 during the sume period last
year and 278,000 during the four.weeks of November 1931.. The average price
of bacon hogs at Toronto for the four weeks ended.December 23.was $3.96.per
100 pounds, compared with 't.4.70 in November 1031' and $10.18 in December 1930.
According. to the Canadian Government report. the average price of hogs at
Toronto for the week ended December 17 reached a low level of '3.65 per 100
pounds, but recovered during the following week because of a marked reduction
in market supplies.
United Kingdom .
The stronger sterling exchange during the first three weeks of December
was instrumental in maintaining the Liverpool average price of imorican green
bellies at $7.73 per 100 pounds, according to. cabled.advices frormi agricultural
attache E. A. Foley at London. The December figure, however,. was among the
lowest on record, as was tht average of $7.31 pu.id for Danish 'v;.ltshirs sides .
American short cut green hu'ls also were down at V10.90. SterJ Lng quotations
on Danish bacon showed a tendency to go lower us Decemrber advau.wued. The whole
range of December cured pork prices wore under November levels., and less than
half the values prevailing -t the s.me tine.l.st yc-r. Liverpool stocks of
cured pork on Janu.ry 1 stood "t 1,682,000 pounds -gainst 1,864,000 pounds
on December 1, 1931 .nd 2,433,000 pounds on Jcnu.,ry 1, 1931.
Totl British b.-con imports during'Novembur.of 105,372,000 pounds,
were somewhat smaller than in October buit weru highLtr thtn for nqy Npovembor
on record. Total imports for the first two months of the 1931-32 season were
17.5 per cent higher th.n A year -.go, the former record yeor. Heavy receipts
from Denmark accounted for most of the November advance. In both October
and November, the first two months of the current pork marketing season,
British imports of b-con from.Denmark nere in excess, of 71,million pounds.
The two-month tot--l is 9 per cent larger than that of l,.st year, when the .
inflow of Danish bcLon was regarded .s exceptionally heavy for those months.
November imports from otht;r continuntil countries were below the October level,
but larger th-.n year ..go. Imports from the Irish Free Lt;Lte Llso were
down from October levels, but .bove last year's figures. Imports from Canada, ,
however, increased. Tot.l h-m imports were larger also.
Liverpool prices wver;ged only Q7.25 for American prime steam -western.
l..rd during the first three weeks of December. Sterling quotations.were firm
e.rly in the month but vweakened .,s December Advanced. .The new low average
I7.s 96 cents under the October figure ..nd t4.00 undlr the Docerber 1930 aver.ge;.
Liverpool 1-rd stocks on J..nuLry 1 stood 0t 1,.391,.000 pou.nas -*..iast .990,000
pounds on December 1, 1931 And'1,068,000. pounds on January "-. 1931. .Totul
l.rd imports into Gre-t .Britain during.Novenber,-. t 19,234:POC pounds-, were
larger th.n in the preceding month, but smaller thun-a ye,-r ago. With imports.
for both October and .November smaller th.n list ycar, the tot-al for the first
two months of the current season is 27.4 per cent beloGw last season u&d the.;
smallest for. those two months since. the 1926-27 suason. ....
/ Grudings .-t stockyards and packing plants. -
- 4 -
Additional evidence of increased British domestic pork supplies appears
in an increase of 13.2 per cent in market receipts of fat nigs during October
and November at representative markets. At London -entral i1a-k.ts, receipts
of British and Irish fresh pork.reached the unuEuu.llj largo total of 13,817,000
pounds. For the two months October and Iovembur IZli, such receipts were
25 per cent larger than for the first two months of.the 1930-31 season. Irish
hog killing for curing made a seasonal decline in December, but continued larger
than last year.
Countries jr-portant in Britisb m: -.ket Esupplies
Preliminary returns place Danish b.ccn exports for November at more
than 70 million pounds, a figure in keeping with those o' recent months and
the heaviest November export on recorC.. IncluiL'ng the preliminary November
figure, Danish bacon exp.'ric for the first -., a months of the new season were
9 per cent l.rgpr than 1,.s sr.,s.o; for the s.'r.- period, when the movement
was regarded as'exception-. L1y h ';-'iy.. A reduc:-d iL:ovLnent from -the Netherlands
is reflected in unusually -r,i].l Ncveliber imp'-rts into- Great Britain. The
heavy October shipments, ncw;ever, kept the m'-vLnMnt of Netherlands bacon to
Gredt Britain for the first two months of the 1931-32 season at about the sume
level as last year. :
The season' downward movement in Germa.n hog prices resulted in an
average of $8.21 per 100 pounds for heavy hogs at Berlin during DLoccmb'.r,
according to cabled advices from Agricultural ,tt=che L. V. bteere at Berlin.
That average was one of the lowest of any month on record, and represented
a decline of more than $4.25 below the Decumber 1930 average. November hog
prices also were unusually low, but in th.t month prices of important feed-
stuffs turned upward.
A 15 per cent reduction in the number of sovs in fdrrow in Germany
on December 1, 1931, is shoun by the prelininury. returns of the hog census
for that date. This indicates a considerable reduction in breeding operations.
While the total number of hogs, esti. tLd Lt 23,00,000, was slightly larger
than on the stme dutc of 1930, the number of sows in furrow w s only 1,110,000
compared with 1,307,000 a year ago. See tuble on nuxt page.
;uLung pigs :6'months to l'year : 1 yer and over
: 8 : Breeding :Total : Breeding :Total :t:,: i
:Under :weeks : sows :excl. : s'ows :excl .:
8 :to 6 : In : :sows &: In : :sows aiii
:weeks monthss: farrow:. :boars :farrow: :boars .
:Thou- :Thou- iThou-:Thou-- :Thou- :Thou- :Thou- :Thou'- ;:i
:sands :sands :sands :sands :sands :sands :sands :sands :td
June 2, 1914 ..:
Dec. 1, 1927 ..:
June 1, 1928 ..:
Dec. 1, 1928 ..:
June 1, 1929 ..:
Sept.l, 1929 ..
Deo. 1, 1926 .,:
Mar. 1, 1930 ..
June 1, 1930 ,.:
Sept.1, 1930 ..:
Dec. 1, 1930 ..:
Mar. 1, 1931 ..:
June 1, 1931 ..
Sept. 1, 1931 .:
Dec. 1, 1931 ..:
1,531: : .22;
1,218: 1,584: 22,1
1,150: 335: 20,1
1,063: 1,372: 20,1
1,145: 275: 16.,
1,208: 387: 19,tj
1,178: 1,006: .19,9
1, 229: .315. .18,.
1,350: 280: .19,
1,496: $93: 23,35
1,517: 2 891: 281,1
1,663: 246: 22,54
1,661: 450: 25,34
1,450: : 23,80
Compiled from Deutcher, Reichsanzeiger,
Agricultural Attache at Berlin.
ViLertel jahrshcfte and cablsa-TrraB
Hog receipts -at .14 German markets during December appear to have run .
heavier than in NTovembur-wvhen they reached 337,000 huad, the highest November..
figure since 1927.. Total receipts for the first two months (October-Novembe.)-
of the current pork season were 21.2 per cent larger than last season's corre-
spending figures. Slaughter returns for November for .36 centers place the
total for the month at the high level of 458,000 head,. The combined October
and November figures were 27.5 per cent larger than for the corresponding-
months of the 1930-31 season. Preliminary import returns for November indicate::G
that, despite the heavy domestic production, Germany continues tq import more.-,
bacon th-n last year, principally from the Nethcrlands, but the November t.otal-
was below that of October. .. :
Hamburg lurd prices declined scason2lly during December, the average
for the month being $8.96 per 100 pounds, one of the lowest figures on record.
The decline represented a reduction of more thn $3.30 below the December 1930
average. Imports continued to increase during November, reaching 19,180,000
pounds, an unusually l.rge figure for that month. Denn-irk continues to provide
an increasingly important share of the lard now being imported by Germany.
Total imports for October rnd November 1931 were 58.. per cent larger than for
the same months last year.
GERDMNY: Number of hogs according to detailed classification,
specified dates 1914, 1927-1931
." r *
"Fr...Art 2 .
zITED IJjNGDO: :
Tat pi&s, cer- :
SQpplies, .: :
Denmark ....: ":
Irish P.State : '
United States : ":
Canada ...... .: ":
Others .......: "
Total ......: "
Haln, total ....: "
Lard, total ...: "
AI : : A
GERMABN: : :
14 cities .... "
36 centers .., "
Bacon, total... :pounds:
Lard, total....: ".
.Bacon : :1000
Cuba ....... : ".
Total ....: :
Hams, shoulders :
United Kingdom : "
Total ..... :
United Kingdom : "
Germany .......: "
Cuba .......... "
Total ......: I
SUni: 1909-10.: 1924-25 :
S : tol913-14:to1928-29:1928-29
: : average-: average :
:1929-30 :1930-31 :1931-32
:* : :
* : :
: : :
136 : 128:
: 96,011 : 132,339:
: 1'T,273 : 6,779:
7,577 : 3,070:
: 3,137 : 748:
29',272 : 39,189:
:147,270 : 182,125:
: 16,'230 : 11,547:
'45,848 : 50,648:
:. 97,129 : 132,691:
120 : 152
13,120 : 19,988
80,800 : 98,766
12,380 : 15,626
14,857 : 5,431
13,845 : 4,407
24,843' : 37,445
17,945. : 13,266
38,144 : 39,630
80,142 : 94,614
545 : 666
671 : 856
4,242 : 1,628
35,487 : 29,033
7,302 : 8,168
8,991 : 3,303
2,103 : 202
3,481 : 2,403
21,421 : 11,689
20,287 : 9,696
24,712 : 12,384
30,752 : 32,540
23,920 : 31,039
13,003 : 13,680
5,216 : 6,805
: 6,633 :
: 1,649 :
HOGS AND PORK PRODUCTS: Indices of foreign supplies and demand
: Oct. LY.ov...
.. 111111|IIIHOD11111111111 011111 11 11111
SB ; 3 1262 08865 0451
;jP" .. ....: .r
HOGS .aND PORK PRODUCTS: Foreign and d'mesti .Yer gaP r,
100 pounds for the month indicated, and stbckf at fthi e
each month I' V
: November : November : November : Ottobar
Item :' : 1909-1913: 1925-1929: 1930- : 19.1.
: average : average : .
basis packers' and I
No. 3 Yellow .......
Hogs, heavy, Berlin, :
Cured pork- :
:cut green hams ..:
Danish Wiltshire .:
Hams,. bacon und :
Lurd, refined .....:
Processed pork c/..:
Lard in cold
: storage ....... .:
14.80 : 23.47
14.02 :b/ 21.76
.,000 : 1,000
._/ No quotation. b/ Three-year average only.
process of cure; pickled, cured, und in process
1. .i .
. W w
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