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A E5643.17 CPT
UNITED STATES DEPA. MET OF AGRICULTURE ....
Bureau of Agricultural Economics .....
HP-17 April LI-j4 :3L9Q.1ITORY
WORLDD HOG AN, PORK PROSPECTS
Somewhat firmer prices for hogs and pork products developed in late
March and early April in domestic and foreign markets. Unusually low values,
however, continue to prevail. In the United States hog slaughter during
March continued above that of a year ago for the third consecutive month.
1he increased slaughter, continued weak domestic demand, and reduced foreign
outlet resulted in a larger accumulation of pork and lard stocks during the
first quarter of 1931 than in the same period of 1930.
Conditions in Europe surrounding hog production continue to develop
unfavorably, with hog prices weak until recently, and feed prices tending
upward in several important Continental European producing countries. In
Germany, the hog-feed ratio has been unfavorable during recent months, and
March 1 figures indicated smallertotal hog numbers than on December 1, 1930.
There were increases in joung pigs and brood sows between those two dates,
but the percentage increase was considerably smaller than between those two
dates of last season. In Denmark also there are indications of reduced profit
in hogs, but probably to a smaller degree than in Germany. Continental pork
Supplies promise to be plentiful for several months.
Unusually heavy lard imports into the United Kingdom was the favorable
feature of the European foreign trade in pork products during February. Liver-
pool stocks were larger on April 1 tnan for the preceding month. Imports into
Germany also were larger than in recent months. European in-ports of American
cured pork for February, however, continued at reduced figures, with British
markets liberally supplied from continental sources.
After reaching the low point for the winter in late February, hog
prices in the United States advanced during the first two weeks of March.
Most of tiis rise, caused primarily by weather conditions, occurred during
the second week. Lower temperatures and a severe blizzard which swept
over the Middle "'est, temporarily reduced market supplies of hogs and also
acted as a stimulus to consumer demand for pork. With the return of rore
normal weather conditions, marketings increased and prices declined
moderately during the next two weeks, and then made another advance the
following week. Hog prices at Chicago averaged e7.05 during the first week
of March, %7.66 in the second week, $7.59 in the third week, -7.44 in the
.fourth week, and P7.64 in the week ended April 4. The average for March
was $.7.46 as compared with W7.06 during February and 410.17 during March
1930. Federally inspected slaughter during March, amounting to 3,523,000
head, was 3.8 per cent larger than in March 1930 but represented a seasonal
reduction of 15 per cent from the 4,142,000 head slaughtered in February.
The cumulative total of inspected slaughter for the six months' period
beginning October 1, 1930 was 2.6 per cent under that of the same period in
the 1929-30 marketing year. Average weights at most markets during March
continued well above those of a year earlier and the 5-year average. The
price spread in favor of light weight hogs was reduced during March but
remained unusually wide for this time of the year.
Corn prices declined during the first week of March, advanced during
the second week and remained about steady during the remainder of the month.
No. 3 Yellow at Chicago averaged 59.8 as against 60.7 cents in February
and 80 cents in March 1930. With corn prices slightly under those of a month
earlier and hog prices higher, the relationship between corn prices and
hog prices was more favorable than during February. Present conditions
point to no material change in the near future in this favorable relationship.
Hence it appears that average weights will continue heavy and that the 1930
fall pig crop will not be sent to market much earlier than usual.
The fresh pork market was considerably stronger during March. Loin
prices advanced sharply and moderate price advances were made on other cuts
with the exception of hams, the latter continuing the decline which has been
under way since March, 1930. 10 to 12 pound loins at New York averaged
417.90 as compared with C14.78 in February and 424.01 in March,1930, where-
as 10 to 14 pound hams averaged 417.00 as against $17.55 in February and
423.62 in March, 1930. In contrast to the advance in fresh pork prices,
prices of all kinds of cured pork declined during March. 12 to 14 pound
regular smoked hams averaged $20.00 at New York as against 422.12 in
February and $25.92 in March, 1930. Sweet pickle cured bacon 8 to 10 pounds
averaged 19.50 as compared with ,20.61 in February.
Lard prices advanced during March after establishing a new low point
for the post-war period during February. The prices of refined lard at
Chicago averaged '-10.00 in March as against $8.94 in February Lad 412.12 in
March, 1930. The price of lard substitutes also made an advance but the price
spread in favor of lard was increased. The monthly average price of substitutes
at Chicago was ;9.50 as compared with Q8.90 in February and 411.38 in March,
Continued -wea'aiess i.i foreign de..-..ni for American pork was reflected
in the export trade during February. Tot i exports of pork products were 4
per cent under those of January. The e-xort movement of becon amounting to
'4,801,000 pounds was about 9 per =ent smaller than that of Januar- ..nd 61
per cent smaller than in February, 1950. T:ainLs by the United Zlingdorn were
24 per cent smaller than in January which :.iuch more than offset the 16 -er
cent increase in exports to Cuba. The February movement of h1a.s and shoulders
was reduced 24 per cent from that of Jalu-ary and was 40 per cent smaller than
in February 1930. Larger quantities were takon than in January by Cuba and
Canada but takings by United-Kingdom were 53 per cent smaller.
Lard exports during February. wer3 maintained at the high level
established in January and 'ere 4.2 per cent larger than those of Febru.ry,,
1930. It was the first month for exports to exceed those of the corresponding
month a year earlier since February, 1930, Ex_:,orts to GCer.:r.ny were 47 per
cent larger than in Jaitumry and the lar-est for the month since 1928. Exports
to Netherlands were also larger than those of January, but reductions of
16 per cent in exports to the United Kingdoi-i and about 7 per cent in those
to Cuba offset the increases made by Germany and iotherlands.
The increased slaughter, reduced foreign outlet for pork in Februz.ry
and .a continued Vieak domestic demand were responsible for large accumulations
of pork in storage. Pork stocks on IMarch 1 amounting to 853,000,000 pounds
were 17 per cent above those of February 1, 9 per cent above those of TTarch
1, 1930 and 9 per cent above the 5-year i.tarch 1 average. Ls.rd stocks in-
creased 20 per cent during February but on lMarch 12 the-y were still 33 per
cent below those of a year earlier and 33 pr. cent smaller than the 5-year
March 1 average. A.ril 1 storage figures are not 'yet available, but they are
expected to show an increase over those of I.Iarch 1.
During the weel] ended 1.arch 26 hog supplies at stock yards were only
about half the volume offered during the preceding week and prices advanced
as much as '1.00 per 100 pounds at some yards according to the Canadian
Government Livestock !.Iarkets Intelligence Service. Sellers were warned against
a heavy rush of hogs either to yards or plants and were advised to market
only finished hogs, but not to hold hogs for excessive weights. Prices at
Toronto advanced 75 cents to ;1.00 per.100 pounds. The average price for
bacons for the week, ho-;ever, was considerably below the price at the same
time a year ago, amounting to '83,33 per hundred this yearr compared with '$13.43
last year. There was also an advance during the week in X!innipcg prices with
bacons closing at $7.75. Selects in all cases were sold at a dollar premium
For the twelve weeks ended iiarch 26, 1931 the n-:mnbcr of !ogs graded
at all stock yards and packing plants was 551,000 or 8 per cent less than in
the same period of 1930. During the first two months of 1931 the number
killed under inspection was 327,000 or 13 per cent less than in 1930 while
cold storage holdings of pork on I.Iarch 1, estimated at 24,849,000 pounds were
below last year's total by 27 per cent.
Bacon and hams -ind pork exports fell off about one-third and one-half
respectively during; the first two months of 1931, the quantity exported
amounting to 1,158,000 pounds of bacon and hams and 681,000 pounds of pork.
The bulk of the bacon and hai.s vent to the United Kingdom, exports to the
United States for the period amornting to only 161,000 pounds compared with
326,000 pounds a year ago. Pork exports to the United States fell to
149,000 while those to the United Kingdom were reduced from 788,000 pounds
to only 43,000 pounds.
I:r.-orts into Can.da for the"'first two months this year were also below
last year for the sane period. February imports of bacon and hams from the
United States totaled only about 6,000 pounds compared with 871,000 pounds
last year according to the Canadian Government report. Pork imports from
the United States amounted to 515,000 pounds during February a decrease of
36 per cent compared with last February. For the first tro months of 1931
total imports of bacon and hams amounted to only 18,000 pounds compared with
1,414,000 pounds a year earlier while pork imports amounted to 863,000
pounds a decrease of 43 per cent.
The general decline of cured pork prices in British markets during
February and Harch was checked somewhat toward the end of the'latter month.
The March average for Danish Tiltshires at Liverpool was t13.85 per 100
pounds, up slightly from February levels, but $10.53 under a year ago and
85 cents under the pre-war average for Iarch. In American green bellies,
however, the March average went below February to reach $13.00, a new low
point for the post-war years. American short cut green hams also reached a
new post-war low point in I.-arch with an average of .17.42, but.were still
$3.60 above the pre-war figure. Stocks of cured pdrk at Liverpool on April
1 totaled 3,952,000 pounds against 5,226,000 pounds a month earlier and
6,681,000 pounds on April 1, 1930.
The continued heavy bacon imports into the United Kingdom during
February placed the total since October 1 at a point 28.3 per cent above the
total for the corresponding period of 1929-30. The large receipts from
Denmark for the first five months of the current season were 43.8 per cent
larger than last season. Increased receipts also are noted from other
Continental Duropean countries, but sharp cuts continue in imports from the
Irish Free State mid North America. Bacon imports from the United States in
February again declined from the figures for the preceding month and a year
ago, placing total receipts from that source 'for the five months indicated
55.5 per cent below the 1929-30 volume. In that season imports from the
United States for the first five months represented 7 per cent of the British
total bacon imports for that period,whereas this season, receipts-from the
United States to February 28 accounted for only 2.4 per cent of the total.
In hams, also, most of which came from the United States. British imports
declined during the past two months, the total since October 1 being 14.6
per cent smaller than for the szae period of 1929-30.
The somewhat sor.sonal stre:i:thicnirG,. of the British 1- rd m-.rlot in
March brought the Liverpool average for th-.t month to 10.23 per 100 pounds,
an advance of 45 cents over the preceding month. The current avora-ge, how-
ever, was ,1.57 below the ML:.rch 1930 avor.go rnd below the pro-war level
by about the same amount. Liverpool r 'fined lard stocks on Airil 1 stodd at
2,415,000 pounds against 1,673,000 pounds a month earlier and 3,259,000
pounds on April 1, 1930. The Febru.ry imports of lnrd, most of which came from
the United St-tes, reached 32,576,000 pounds, the largest volume for any
month since Jarnarzx, 1929, and an unusually l-.rge quantity for February. At
the end of January 1931, the curaulativo total of British lard imports since
October 1, 1930, was smaller than the ccrrospondint 1929-30 figure. The
February imports, however, placed the season's total 4.7 per cent ahead of
last seas on
Tho increasing British domestic pork supply was reflected in hog
marketing for February exceeding those of last year for the second succeeding
month. The current season's total to February 28 was slightly larger than
that of last season, M.arch supplies of fresh British and Irish pork, as
reflected by London Centr.1 MHarLets receipts, were larger than last season
for the fourth successive month, the season's total to March 31 being 10
per cent larger than last year. Since J'-u.-ry last, more hogs have been
utilized by Irislh b-con curers than in the same months of 1900. For the
current season to date, however, such figures have run 5.6 per cent behind
the same period of last season,
Continental European countries
Doncnarl- and Noth-erlands
Preliminary figures indicate that the February bacon exports from
Denmark of about 64,000,000 pounds, were the smallest of any month since last
September, Unusually high monthly moremonts have been the feature of the
current season to date. The total export from October 1 to February 28, 1930-
31, is the largest on record, with preliminary returns placing it 41.2 per
cent above last season and 34 per cent above 1927-28, the season of next
largest movement. Indications are that the margin of profit in Danish hog
production has been reduced further in the past two months, but not to as
great an extent as in other continentr1. producing countries. In the
Notherlands, hog production is being reduced, according to Consul C. H. Foster
at Rotterdam. Foodstuffs appear to be plentiful, but the pork price situation,
particularly for bacon in British markets, is not encouraging to producers.
Late in February the British market was paying less for Netherlands bacon
than for either Danish or Swedish. Total British imports of ITethorlrnds bacon
so far this season are larger than in 1929-30.
Early April hog prices at Berlin wore slightly higher than the K.rch
average for heavy hogs of $10.18 per 100 pounds, according to cabled advices
from Agricultural Attache' Steere at Berlin. The il.reh average marked a neo
low point in the post-war hog price series for that market. It was more than
$4.00 under prices of a year ago and r1.17 under the pre-war avornag for I.rch,
The February 1931 averasae was 410.66. Food prices available for recent
months indicate a sharp movement upward in barley at Leipzig to P2.11 per
100 pounds in February, an advance over last year of 24 per cont. Potato
prices at Broslau, while showing a tendency to rise in February, averaged
27,7 per cent below the Fobruary 1930 level.
The unfavorable hog food ratio, which has been prevailing in Germany
in recent months, appears to he reflected in a curtailrent in brooding
operations, according to the March 1, 1931, quarterly hog estimate furnished
by MJr. Steer. The figures show a decrease since MarCh 1, 1930 of 2 per
cent in brood sors of 6 months to 1 year. Although there has boon a
seasonal increase in brood sows of that class of 5 per cent since December,
this season, during the same period last season there was an increase of
9 per cent. Brood sows of 1 year and over on March 1 this year mi.do an
increase of 23 per cent over the same date of 1930. However, this year the
seasonal increase has been only 1 per cent since December 1, compared with
4 per cent a year ago. Total hog numbers on MJIrch 1, 1931, wore 17 per cent
above the number on March 1, 1930, but 7 per cent below the December 1
estimate, whereas last year the decline from December 1 to'March 1 was 6 per
Pigs under 8 weeks and those of 8 exoks to 6 months, according to the
estimate just received, were 15 per cent and 20 per cent respectively over
the WMarch 1 numbers last year and also above the numbers reported on
December 1. The heavy increase in pigs points to substantially heavier
marketing during the spring and summer months of 1931 than those of the
same months last year. Hogs of 6 months to 1 year, exclusive of brood sows.,
on Iarch 1 wore 17 per cent above the number on hand last year at the same
date, but 33 per cent below the number on hand on December 1, 1930. Hogs
of 1 year .nd over, exclusive of brood sows, however, wore below the number
reported at the same d:.to last year and also below the number on hand. on
December 1, 1930. (See Table on next page.)
Preliminary figures on March receipts of hogs at 14 cities indicated
total marketing of about 345,000 head. That figure is the largest for any
month since October 1928. Using the same preliminary figures for Mhrch in
the cumulative total receipts since October 1 last, the season's total to
KMarch 31 is 8,6 per cent higher than for the same period of lst season. Up
to February 28, the lead over last season was 6.1 per cent, Hog slaughter
at 36 centers for February continued the larger volume of recent months, and
carried the season's total 15.3 per cent above that of last season. In spit6
of increased domestic production, bacon imports into Germany have been
increasing in recent months, largely as a result of selling pressure from
nearby countries, especially the Netherlands. Total bacon imports for the
season to February 28 were 326 per cent larger than last season.
Hqanburg lard -rices early in April were slightly below the iTarcn
aver-.;e of $11.09 per 100 pounds. That figure was higher than the Joanary
and February averages, but under the :;.rcn 19Z0 level c-nd $2.80 under the
pre-war average for i arch. The Germai- imports of lard during February
expanded to 20,042,000 pounds, the largest monthly import since October
1929 and an unusually larg6 figure for '..rch. The b.llk of trhe lar: in-
ported-into Germany comes from tne Uniited States. Ti-;e February. imports
were the first for any month of the c--.rrent s'.ason to exc.ced imorts for
the corresnondinrg i.onth of last season. Tiie c.ur.l.tivc total .s of
February 28, however, was still 30 per cent -under tie corres-onding fiy,~re
for last season.
GESRLLAL.Y: Young pigs, brood sows ard total hos on hand, ::arch
1, 1931, with comiiparisors
: Young pigs : Brood sows
Date of : Under : Eight *:Six months: : Total
census eight :weeks to : to : Over Total hogs
:weeks :six months: 1 y.'ear : 1 year
:Thousands: Thousands: Thousands: Thoi sands: Thousands: Thou sands
June 2, 191 14,825 : 714 :1,531 : 2,245 : 22,118
Dec. 1, 1927 :4,379 : 9,910 : 504 : 1,218 1,722 : 22,3
June 1, 1928 : 4,936 : 9,557 : 707 : 1,150 : 1,857 : 20,187
Dec. 1, 1928 4,003 : 8,487 : 556 : 1,063 1,619 : 0,106
June 1, 1929 :4,160 : 8,099 : 671 : 1,145 :1,816 : 15,794
Sept.l, 1929 5,373 : 8,290 : 652 1,208 : 1,360 : 19,604
Dec. 1, 192 : 4,412 : ,679 63 :1,178 1,841 :19,320
Mar. 1, 1930 : 5,012 : 8,555 7 22 :1,229 1,951 : 13,649
June 1, 1930 :5,091 : 9,178 : 876 : 1,356 : 2,232 :19,804
Sept.2, 1930 :6,518 : 9,805 : 811 :1,466 : 2,277 : 23,414
Dec. 1, 1930 : 5,440 :10,002 : 673 :1,496 : 2,169 : 23,363
Mar. 1, 1931 : 5,750 10,231 : 706 : 1,517 2,223 : 21,800
Compile ]d from official sources, and cab'es from Aricultural At'ac-h- L. V.
Steer., .' >- rlin.
HOGS AIFD PORK PRODUCTS: Indices of foreign supplies and demand
: : __Oct. to Fob.
; :1909-10 :1924-25 : :
: Unit :tol913-14:to1928-29: 1927-28 :1928-29 : 1929-30 : 1930-
: : average : vorae : : :
UITITED KI'NGDli:: :
fresh pork, : 1000:
Dcnmark ....: "
Irish F.Stato "
United States "
Canada *....: "
Total ....: "
Ham,total ..: "
Lard, tot-l..: "
DEICRK: : :
Bacon .......: "
Slaughter- : :
Hog receipts :
14 cities...: :
36 centers..: "
Imports- : 1000 :
Lard, total..: "
UNITED STA.TS: :
Slaughter- : :
Bacon- : 1000 :
Germany ...: "
Cuba ......: :
Total .....: "
United Kingdom "
Total ....: "
dom .......: "
Germany ....: :
Cuba .......: "
Total .....: :
732 9 :
45,444 :. 34,180
24,855 : 10,90
3,286 : 18
35,484 : 26,63
44,867 : 34,00
111,997 : 120,09
95,302 : 46,9
33,271 : 20,6
23,815 : 10,9
373,252 : 266,
I--I---~-- ---- -- -- I--e~-~--~~--~-- ---
HOGS AND PORK PRODUCTS: Foreign ind domestic nvcrago prices per 100
pounds for the month indicate., mnd stocks at the end of each month
: cFb. Feb. : Feb. : Jan. : Feb.
Item : 190-1913: 195-1929
_: _v___r_ :i avyrnge : 1930 : 1931 : 1931
Dollars :Dollars :Dollars :Dollars : Dollars
basis o.ckcrs' :
and shippers' :
quotations .....: 7.43 : 10.68 : 10.67 : 7.65 : 7.06
No. 3 yellow ...: 1.02 : 1.64 1.4 : 1.16 : 1.09
Hogs, hcavy, : : :
weight ......... 11.39 1: 1-. 2 : 1.65 : 12.05 :10.66
Barley, Leipzig ...:
Chicago ....... .
Cured pork -
bellies ..... :
Canadian green :
H as, bacon and :
United States -
Processed ork d/:
Lard in cold
.39 : .5
1.76 : 2.3
10.18 : 14.3
11.60 : .15.0.
13.91 : 15.4
1.00 : 22.0
14.20 : 21.9i
13.49 :b/ 20.9
1,000 : 1,00(
po mds : poun
Nominal. b/ Three-year avercgo only. c/ N) quotation.
Dry salt cured and in process nf cure; nickled, cured, and in process
cure, and frozen.
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
lII I llI llll lllIII11111lI ill HI I Il
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