World hog and pork prospects

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Material Information

Title:
World hog and pork prospects
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics. -- Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Publisher:
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Place of Publication:
Washington
Frequency:
monthly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Swine -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Pork industry and trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
- HP-83 (Oct. 1936).
General Note:
Reproduced from typewritten copy.
General Note:
Description based on: HP-8 (July 9, 1930).

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 026660448
oclc - 30588199
Classification:
lcc - HD9435.U5 A25
System ID:
AA00013004:00007

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Succeeded by:
Hog situation


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Full Text

fL'i N A 3

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE .. .
Bureau of Agricultu-ral Ecna.omics
W '' ii -'.. ton ---
S' ~L-.POSITORY
HP-14 Janu;ry 6, 1931

WORLD HOG AlTD PORK PROSPECTS



SUI.:I 'ARY

Heavy Europe,~a supplies continue to dominate the leading foreign

markets for American cured cork products, according to information available

in the Bureru of Agricultural Economics. The United States export movement

in November was somewhat larger than in October, but tne quantities involved

were much below those of a year ago. Danish bacon exports to Great Britain

are still at record levels aind production in other continental com .trics is

heavy. There were material declines in Europeani cured pork prices daring

December. In lard also, .Mericon exports were up slightly in !Tovm..ber, jut

.under a year ago, and prices have declined at home and abroad. Grer.t ri-tain

continues to import f;..ir quantities of Amecrican lard, but imports into

Germany have declined as domestic slaughter has expanded.

In both the United States and Zurooc the price of hogs declined during

December, averaging considerably lower than in Decermber, 1929, althou--':h in

the United States market supplies were lighter than a year earlier. On both

sides of the ocean, however, therere re r material declines in feed prices.

Indications are that, in view of the relatively favorable Zuro'cAn feed situa-

tion, th-e fall inL. og prices may not check hog rorluction to t:e .::tent which

might be expected ordinarily. The feed situation in Grmany is aided by a. large

potato selling cron at unusually low prices. A decrease of 1 per cent in the

number of fall pigs in the United States, com:--.ared with 7 ..-.r crli-r, was

shown by the December pig survey of the Dupartmunt of Agriculture. In Germany,

the December pig census showed a 17 nor cent incra.ns in pij: numberss over





HP-14 -2-
those of a year earlier but the number of brood -sows six months to one year

declined from September to December which mry indicate a down turn in the hog

production cycle of Germany.
United States
Hog prices in the United St..tes declined during December establishing
a new low point for the year, and reaching the lowest level since 1924.
The averr.ge price at Chicago for December was $7.92 compared with $8.55 during
November, and $9.34 during December 1929. Light weight hogs sold at a pre-
minum, in contrast to the marked discount .t which they sold during the early
fall cnd the equality in price for all weights in December 1929. The live weight
of hogs marketed averaged slightly heavier thoa those of a year earlier.

Thc market supply of hogs in December continued to run smaller than
those of the same period in 1929. Inspected slaughter at nine markets for the
five weeks ending January 2, was 16 per cent less than that of a year earlier.
The reduction in total inspected slaughter, however, was probably somewhat
less tha;. that for the nine markets. The marked decline in feed prices during
the past three months has made hog feeding more attractive, thereby apparently
causing a delayed movement to market. Indicated market supplies for the October-
April period, and marketing from October to date, point to a supply for the
first four months of 1931 not greatly different from that of the smJe period
in 1930.
The Decem-ber pig survey of the Department of Agriculture showed a
decrease of about 1 per cent in the number of fall pigs for the United States
as a whole, but in the North Central States, which furnish most of the market
supply of hogs, a 2 per cent increase was indicated. The survey ,lso indi-
cated that the number of sows to farrow in the United States this spring
will probably be about the same as the number that farrowed in the spring of
1930. T_'e number of pigs saved per litter was unusually large in the spring
of 1930, however, so that if the number saved per litter is only average this
spring, the total spring pig crop will probably be somewhat smaller then that
of 1930. In commenting on the results of the survey, the pig survey report says:
"The results of the survey show the effect that the low prices of corn
and the continuance of a corn-hog ratio favorable to feeding is having on the
trend of hog production. Several months ago, when the very short corn crop of
this year became evident, it was generally expected that this shortage, as in
other years of very short corn production, would result in decreased hog
production the following year. It was also expected that it would result in
a hbavy e.rly marketing of light weight hogs. Apparently, neither of these
results have occurred. The marketing of hogs from October 1 to date have been
unusually small relative to the indicated supply a,-nd weights and finish have
been near the average of recent years. This survey shows that the expected
decrease in the spring pig crop next year is not likely to take place unless
there is a very marked change in the corn and hog situation in the. next two
months."
Fresh pork prices, after making an abrupt advan-ce during the first
week of December, resumed the fall and early winter decline, and averaged
lower for the month than in November. Most cuts were $2.00 to $3.00 lower
at the end of the month than they were a ;.'ear earlier. Prices of cured
pork also declined, with weakness more pronounced during the last half
of the month, but as the year ended they were nearer the level of
a year earlier than were the prices for fresh pork. A continued decline in







HF-14


l.rd prico-s i :ou:ht th- av- r .r for r lrf id l:rd t Chic o to ,,.10.50 diurir n-
F' ." .. '. r' .'" I : lo>: r th:-L both th':-1 .st wn: .k in .ov-
.. .'...d t. or "r 3 ::' v/ ,.i in 1.,29.

Exports of pork _,nd p!ork p.rouucts, Ixcludii. lard, incrueisd 56 rp.r
cent in J;ovrmb-r ov.-r those of October, but wfre .:6 pc-r cent und,:r those: of
iLovember, 19`-i. Pork tr.ad .:ith unrite-d :iii don showed a .,..r..1.a i.mprrcv-.: lt
ov 'r that of Octob r. T..kin!-s of b-.con ". -r ] n.?~r.rl t' ice .s l r, ., .ltiO'); h
th.-y :.;or: r duci.d :.bo'-t half from those of a ~yo r onrlier. 2h nov w-m nt of
hums -nd shonldk.rs to I;nited .ir:dom totle.i 8,427,j00 pounds, or more th-n
twice the :.mount t..kn in October but 12.4 p:. r cent less th;.n in I ov-:mbor,
1929. Exports of hLim to C -rmriny of oir., 2,000 rounds oer3 the smll-.-st for
-ny north during the post-wr period. L'-cins of bacon by Cub- ,oru 55.3
per cent smi.-ll r thTin L your earlier, whereas their Turch..ses of has ..A.d
shoulders .:.r. 38.4 I.er cent sm.ller. Tlottl ,*,xj orts of lc:rs -nd si.ouldr.rs
were 1.4 p..r cent undor those of 01ovcmber, 1929, while bacon c-xforts ;:ero
70.2 pcr c.en smaller. Th less favorabl*. export outlet for bL.co than for
huns and should-,rs, comr.:.red '.:ith a ,'.-cr -go, l-rgcly reflects the increased
competition comin- from the record movm.i,'nt of Dnish bxcon.

Lard exports .?.cludir., pure lJ-rd, in ivov-rrb:r total d 42,o52,000
pounds as :.inst 41,:t96,000 pounds ii October and 83,257,000 in Iov_-mbor,
1929. All of the principal l1.rd importing countries except Cub. increased
their purchas.-s ovcr those of October. Compar,_'d rith a year earlier, pur-
ch-.ses by Unitea 'ingdom were 15.7 per cent larger, but were smaller by
86.5 per c-ent in Ger2any, 02.3 per cent in I'cthcrlhnds and 71.3 per cent in
Cuba.

Storage stocks of pork in United StatCes on D.'cemuor 1, -mounting
to 412,000,000 pounds, v.-r.. 15 rp-,r cent larger than on November 1, but :ere
16 per c.ent sm.ll :r than on Doc'mb:'r 1, 192-9 .nd 4 per cent smaller than
th? 5-year avcrrg.? for that date. Lard stocks on Lc..cmber 1 amounted to
31,000,000 pounds and wore the small,3st on record for that dte. They oyero
54 prr cent s3r.ller then on D-.c, mbu r 1, 1929, .nd 41 ..pr crnt smaller than
th- 5-y'--r D:c:-r.mb3r 1 av3ra-o.

Corn prices r: -s~mn d the decline during Decomber after making a mod-
erate udvanc-- at the beginning of the month. -Lc. 3 Yellow at Chicago
averaged .4.3 cents during the fourth week iof Dec:-mb.,r and the average for
the month \ s 69.5 cents -s E.g...irst 70.9 cents during iove-mbar and 86 cents
during Decerr,--r, 1929. "'ihat price.3 r..-..in.d hir :.-,r than corn prices 4t the
principal m,.rkets, but were at a level i-;hch made v-h~t feeuing attractive
in many .rtos.

Ca.nrida

Frosplcts point to continu.jd short supplies of ho. 3 until the autumn
of 1931, according to the C nLdian Govrniment 1i ri'ts I::t-lligence 3-rvice.
During 19:'0 the mnrkct :,as icharcterizod by short supplies and a relatively
good domestic d.:mnd creating seller's markets ;:ith tz,. e.xc-.:ption of a few
v ceks late in the .r:r, :accorair- to the samn source.




L


-3-








HP-14


ThM official livestock census for June 1, 1930, shows lower hog
numbers on that d.te than a yv' '-r rlier, ..s indic-ted in our preceding re-
port. The number is now estimated at only 4,000,000, decrease of 9 per
cent compared with 1929, -nd the lowest number reported since 1922. The
fact that there has been very strong inquiry for brood sows appears to
be evidence of a check in the six-year decline in production and an upturn
may now. be expected.

Market supplies in 1930 up to December 23, as indicated by the number
of hogs graded, -mounted to 2,287,000, a decre-Lse of 14 per cent compared
with 1929 for a similar period. Of the above number, 729,000 went directly
to Ontario packing plants ag-inst 913,000 last year. The average price for
bacon hogs at Toronto for the ,week ending December 23 was 411.00 per 100
pounds which was higher than the monthly average of 410.84 for November,
1930, but below the average for the same month in 1929, which was 11.52.

Europctn market -nd production conditions

Gre-at Brit;..in

During the week ended December 31, Danish 'Viltshire sides wore quoted
in Liverpool at $14.5' per 100 pounds, according to cabled advices from
Agricultural Attache Foley at London. That figure marks the lowv point to
date in .the price decline in progress since last March. The average for
all of December stands at Y15.05, a decline of about .;P8.60 below the De-
cember 1929 figure and 95 cents high-er than the pre-vwar average for that
month. American green bellies were domn to '18.03 for the last week in
December, the average for the month being .bout ;19.70. The supplies of the
American product continue relatively light. A weakening in Americ-n short
cut green h-ms brought th- December 31 average down to 420.86 against an
average for the month of .21.21. Last your the December average was 422.00.
Stocks of cured pork at Liverpool on J-nuary 1 made a seasonal increase to
reach 2,433,000 pounds against the unusually low figure of 942,000 pounds
on December'1. Last year Liverpool stocks on January 1 stood .t 3,528,000
pounds.

The continued unusually large receipts of bacon from Denmark placed
the total bacon imports for October-November, the first 2 months of the cur-
rent season, 23.8 per cent above the total for the s-mo months of 1929. The
increase in receipts from Donmark alone ran to 25.7 per cent over a year ago
for the same 2 months. Imports of bacon from the United States for November
were much larger than in October. The total for October and November, how-
ever, dropped to less than half of the 1929 figures, with negligible quan-
tities coming from Canada. Receipts from the Irish Free St-te also have
been sharply reduced, while imports from the Nutherlands are running slightly
higher thn a year ago. There have been considerable increases also in re-
ceipts from other continental countries. Ham imports, principally from the
United States, weor about the same ii both October and November, with the
two months' total'25 per cent below that of the same period of last season.








HP-14 -5-

The Dcce:ber decline in Livrrpool lard quotations brought th.- aver-
age for t..e week ended Dcccmbe.r 31 down to $10.6o, per 100 pounds, accorid-
ing to .'r. Foley. The av ral e for the :lonth wa.-; $11.25, ori, of t'10 loVst
levels of recent ye.-ars ind 83 cents uji.er tne pre-war av':-r,- re for Decceiber,
Stocks of refined lard ct Liverpool on Joauary 1 s.-.owcd a decline from
December fibJres to reach 1,0'3G,000 pounds. That figure, howev.-r w.as
2,731,000 pounds under tie 3,.799,0:'0 pounds recorded. for Janu,..; 1, 1'30.
The adve.nce over la't season in British lari imports w-.s continued into :ovcem-
ber when the total for that .onth rac--hed the fairly .hi. h level of 27,51i,000C
pounds. Total lard imports for the first two months of the 1930-31 r-eason
were 10.3 per cent larger than for the cor"-cspjonding two months of l..st season.

The red-iction of domestic British pork c.;-lies was carried into
November, wit.! hog marketing from October-Novemrber about 6 per cent below
those of last :,-e-.. Returns from the London Central Mark:ets for receiver,
however, indicate t. ait the supplies of fresh British and Irish pork handled
during that month totaled 9,074,C00 pounds, a seasonal increase over the
7,121,000 pounds reported for Iove.:iber, arnd larger 'than the total for Decemrber,
1929. Totnl supjlies hai-dled urrin_ t::- pcrio3 October-December, 1930, wcre
sli rhtl;,- larger than the total for the first 3 monthss of the *1929-50 season.

Denmar. and therlands

Continuing the record bacon output of recent months, Dcnrn:.rk ex ,orted
a total of mo-'e than 66,000,000 po.u.ds in 'ovc.abLr, according to ureliminory
returns. Indications are that ho. raising' remains fairly profitable in
Denmark in spite of the continued fall in hog and pork prices. Total bacon
exports for Octobcr-rovcmber, 1930, were 38.1 per cent larger than exports
for the corresponding months of 1929. lTetherlands bacon exports, as reflected
by British im-orts froia that source, were larger in llovember than in either
the preceding month or IToveamber, 129. The seasons two-mon:th total to
November 30 was slightly 1:rger thans at the sa-.ie time last season. Infor-
mation on hog production in ITcthcrlands continues to suggest a he.vior out-
put of pork this season than last.

Germany

An avera g price of $11.'; i;er 100 pounds for heavyy hogs at Berlin
during the week ended January 1 was the lowest level reached dirin;.; the ]:ast
two years, according to figures cabled by Agricultural Attache Stcer, at
Berlin. The average for all of December w.s 12.47, a decline cf about
$4.40 from the average for December, 1929. The I:ovember, 1930, average of
$13.21 was 25.1 per cent below that of a ;ear earlier. The price of fced
barley at Leipzig during iove.-ber, 1930, was slightly higher than a year
earlier, out feed potatoes at Breslau were down 35.1 per cent. Ho.-; receipts
averaged sormewhat seasonally heavier during December with figures for
October and November running slightly larger thrn for the saie two months
of last year. Slaughter returns from 36 centers for the first 2 months
of the 1930-31 season show an increase of 12.4 per cent over the saiL.e period
of 1929-30.






HP-14


There was practically no change in the total number of hogs reported
on hand in Germany on December 1, 1930, as against the quarterly estimates
of September 1, the total standing at 23,365,000 head, according to final
estimates cabled Jonuary 3 by Mr. Steere. The number reported for 1930, as
of December 1, was an increase of about 17 per cent over the number on the
same date for 1929 and'exceeded the previous hig.h record reported-on Decem-
ber 1, 1227 by about 2 per cent. Some tendency toward reduced production
during the next few months is indicated by a reduction of 5 per cent in
total brood sows below September figures. Brood sows of six months to one
year also were 17 per cent below September and were only 2 per cent above
returns for December 1, 1929. Sows of one year and older, on the other
hand, exceeded the number reported in September by 2 per cent.

G "- '-: YFunber of young pigs, brood sows rid total ho.-s on
specified dates, 1914, 1927-1930

: Young pigs Brood sows
Date of : Under : Eight : Six : One
census : eight : weeks to :months to:year and : Total : Total
: weeks :six months: one year: over : : hogs
:Thousands: Thousands :Thousands: Thousands: Thousands: Thousands

Dec. 1, 1S28 : 4,003 : 8,487 : 556 : 1,063 : 1,619 : 20,106
June 1, 1929 : 4,160 8,099 : 671 : 1,145 : 1,816 : 16,794
Sept. 1, 1929 : 5,373 : 8,290 : 652 : 1,208 : 1,860 : 19,604
Dec. 1, 1929 : 4,412 : 8,679 663 : 1,178 : 1,841 : 19,920
Mar. 1, 1930 : 5,012 : 8,555 : 722 : 1,229 : 1,951 : 18,649
June 1, 1930 : 5,091 : 9,178 : 876 1,356 : 2,232 .:.1.,8Q4...
Sept. 1, 1530 : 6,518 : 9,805 : 811 : 1,466 : 2,277 : 23,414
Dec. 1, 1930 : 5,440 :10,002 : 673 : 1496 : 2,169 : 23,363
Compiled from Doutscher Reichsanzeiger, Viertel Jshrshafte and cables from
Agricult.rol Attache at Berlin.

The unusually low average for lard of $11.17 per 100 pounds at
Hamburg was recorded for the week ended December 31. The average for all of
December stood at $12.28, the lowest Decemiber average of recent years and
only 36 cent's above the pre-war average for that month. Preliminary import
trade figures show a decline in total lard imports of nearly 50 per cent
for ITove.mbcr as against november, 1929. With imports for both October and
November, 1930, well below those. of a year ago, the total for the first two
months of 1930-31 stands 38.4 per cent below the corresponding 1929-30
figures. "Most of the lard imports come from the United States. Total
iTovumber bacon imports, however, were somewhat larger than those of the
proceeding month and a year ago. The total for the first two months of
1930-31 was larger than corresponding figures for last season.







-7-
HOGS ANLD PORK PRODUCTS: Indices of forci:n su; lies and dcrnand


Oct.- i7ov.


Country
and item


: Unit : 1909-10 : 1924-25:' :
: :tol913-14:to19328- 9:. 1927 :


: average :


1,vera U :


UNITED KINGDOM:
Production -
Fat pigs, cer-
tain markets.. :1000' s:
Supplies,
domestic fresh: 1000
pork, London.. :pounds:
Imports -
Bacor -
Denmark....... "
Irish F.State.: "
United States "
Canada........: "
Others.........: "
Total.........: "
Ham, totl.....: :
Lard, total....: "
DENMARK:
Exports -
Bacon..........: "
CANADA:
Slaughter.-
Hogs, inspected:1000's:
GERMANY:
Production -
Hog receipts
14 cities.....: "
Hog slaughter
36 centers....: "
Imports : 1000
Bacon, total...:pounds:
Lard, total....: "
UNITED STATES:
Slaughter -
Hogs, inspected:1000's:
Exports -
Bacon : 1000
United Kingdom: pounds:
Gerr n ....... "
Cuba..........: "
Total........:
Hams, shoulders
United Kingdom "
Toto] ......... "
Lard -
United Kingdom: "
Germanyi.......: :
Cuba..........: "
Netherlands...: "
Total........: "


110






39,476

27,769
5,490
8,022
80,757.
13,407
40,098


80,142


301


3


2

2

1
2





6
rC

c.


747

537
6,421


5,437


0,282
362
1,257
E,,506

.9,438
33,093

2,125
I1,980
5,791
5,165
i9,073


120
:*


128:


13,120 : 17,614:


80,E00 :100,347:
12,380 : 13,057:
14,857 : 9,183:
13,845 : 8,565:
24,843 : 33,999:
146,725 :165,131:
17,945 : 13,638:
38,144 : 38,418:


70,325 : '2,128:


471 : 456:


3


1C


545

671

4,242
S5,487


7,302


5,991
2,103
3,481
31,421

30,287
34,712

30,752
33,920
L3,003
5,216
)2,541


744:

886:

1,964:
34,970:


6,657:


3,602:
1,300:
2,617:
13,722:

11,505:
15,006:

29,681:
26,339:
13,614:
3,402:


152:


19,938:


98,766:
15,626:
5,431:
4,407:
37,445:
161,675:
13,266:
39,630:


94,614:


432:



656:
666:

856:

1,628:
29,033:


8,168:


3,303:
272:
2,403:
11,689:

9,696:
12,384:

32,540:
31,039:
13,680:
6,805:


136:


15,149:


96,011:
11,273:
7,577:
3,137:
29,272:
147,270:
16,230:
45,848:


97,129:









713:

3,399:
39,311:


8,358:


6,633:
1,649:
3,217:
'21,310:

15,358:
19,236:

43,655:
43,173:
12,826:
8,309:


99,991:127,581:153,355:


HP-14


1928


199 :
*


1930


128


15,093


132,339
6,779
3,070
748
39,189
182,125
11,547
50,648


134,221


328



588

802

3,602
24,064


7,516


3,310
130
1,309
6,679

12,431
15,348

50,966
6,271
5,743
1,558
63,948


____


__


~--I-




w ..- IIIIVERSITY OF Fi RonA


-8-


3 1262 08865 0337


HOGS AND PORK PRODUCTS: Foreign and domestic..average prices'
100 pounds for the month indicated, and stocks
at the end of.each month
S... :. i


: Nov. : Nov. : .Nov.
:1909-1913:1925-1929: 192.9.


'Oct. :
:1930 :


: average : average


Prices -
Hogs, Chicago,
basis packers'
and shippers '
quotations........
Corn, Chicago,
No. 3 yellow ......
Hogs, heavy,
Berlin, live
weight....... ...
Potatoes, Breslau


.:



.:
: *


feeding. ........... :
Barley, Leipzig......:
Lard -
Chicago............. .
Liverpool.......... :
Hamburg............ :
Cured pork :
Liverpool -
American short
cut green hams....:
American green
bellies.......... :
Danish WViltshire
sides.... ........ :
Canadian green
sides.............


: 1,001
:pou n


Stocks -
Liverpool- :
Hams, bacon and
shoulders... ........:
Lard, refined......:.
United States -
Processed pork c/:


Lard in cold -:
storage...... .i..


:*


V.'


Do


* f"% .'X


U : 1, 0JU
ds : pound.
:



: 2,93
4,5.47

:428,8694

52,476


s


48

S 6


I- c -


8,517 : 36,211


:


a No quotation. b/. Three-year average only. ,'i
c/ Dry salt cured and' in process of cure; pickled, cred, and.iP.l0
of cure, and frozen. : .
:','*"1


HP-14


Item


Dollars : Dollars :
: I




7.48 9.98 '

1.0? : 1.50



.12.05 : 16.47

.31 : 6
1.68 2.21

.10.92 :14.74
12.50 : 14.17
14.46 : 14.97




14.70 : 24.89

21.90

14.80 : 23.47

14.02 :b/21,76


liars : Ddllars


: :. iii.i


9.06 : 9.34 :

1.57 : 1.57 :
.j .. "a .
: ": .
: : ,.

17.66 : 12.41 :''

: :
.7 : .24
'1.95 : 1.98 :"*
: : .

12.21 : 13.94 :
12.09 : 13.33
12.75 : 13.88 :
:
: : *T '

21.70 : 20.78 :
: .
19.55 : 19.88 :

24.06 : 17.27 :
S: :
a/: a/:
.' ?' i.

1,000 : 1,Q0 : I
pounds; .pounds :


o : ..
-- -



1,769 1,114
4,.186 : 587 :
.. :
9,629 :356.,806 : 44J|
: : .




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