UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricult-ural Economics
Washington

WORLD HOG AND PORK PROSPECTS 1/


A36 ,4: t


THE WORLD SITUATION

The European pork producing countries give additional evidence of

-v increased market supplies in contrast to prospects of some decrease-in the

United States during the remainder of the current season. Information

available in the Bureau of Agricultural Economics indicates that the un-

usually favorable European feed conditions continue to encourage hog pro-

duction, whereas in the United States less favorable conditions prevail.

In both the United States and Europe, hog prices'continued to decline during

June.

Both foreign and domestic prices of American cured pork were some-

what stronger in June than in May. Relatively light stocks have been an

important factor in that situation. In the foreign market, however, the

indications of increasing supplies and continued reduced demand give little

hope of maintaining the advances made in June. United States bacon exports

in May were larger than in April, but in both months exports were below a

year earlier. The movement of hans and shoulders, however, was heavier

than last year.

Domestic and foreign lard prices were again down in June, reaching

levels lower than at any time since the war. Relatively low butter and

vegetable oil prices continue to have an adverse effect upon lard. Stocks

of lard are generally light. United States lard exports in May were higher

than in April, but below last year's levels.

I/ Prior to this issue this series had the title Hogs and Pork, the last
issue under the old title was F.S. dated June 7, 1930.
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'N;
E'POSITORy

July 9, 1930


EP-0







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United Kingdom

The somcwhat stronger to.e apparent in tLe British cured pork market
during June placed the Liverpool average price of American green bellies:
for that month at about $10.57 per 100 pounds. Cabled advices from Agri-
cultural Commissioner Foley at London indicate that that figure was the
highest since last January, but about $1.60 below June 1929. In American
short cut green hams, the June average was $21.9-i, down about $2.77 from a
year ago. Danish Wiltshire sides were about 50 cents higher than in May at
$21.94, a point $2.66 under June 1929. Canadian green sides also were well
under last year's prices. July 1 stocks of hams, bacon and shoulders at
Liverpool reached 5,170,000 pounds, a decline of 634,000 pounds from a month
earlier and 2,432,000 pounds below last year.

Total bacon imports for May were larger than in April, but below ....
year ago in spite of unusually heavy receipts from Denmark. More than 56,000,000
pounds of bacon entered British ports from Denmark during May to set a record
for monthly receipts from that source. Total bacon imports from Denmark for
the period October 1 Mny 31, 1929-30 were about 8 per cent larger then last
year. May imports from all other leading sources were under those of a year
ago. Total imports for the current season to May 31 from the United States
continue to exceed last season's figures, but for the Netherlands, Irish Free
State and Canada are under those of the corresponding period of the 1928-29
season. The season's total of bacon imports from all sources is only slight-
ly larger than last year. Hzm imports, most of which come from the United
States, continue to maintain a fair margin over last season's cumulative
totals. The lead over a year ago was reduced somewhat by the end of May when
total imports for that month, while larger than in April, fell below the
May 1929 volume.

The continued weakness in the lard market placed the June average at
Liverpool close to $11.20 per 100 pounds, a new low level for recent years*
The June average was about $2.25 under last year's level, and around 50
cents lower than the June average for the years 1909-1913. July 1 stocks
at Liverpool were unusually small at 1,900,000 pounds against 11,063,000
pounds on the same date last year. Lard imports during May, while totaling
more than in April, were unusually small for that time of year, and more
than 5,000,000 pounds smaller than imports for May 1929. Total lard im-
ports into the United Kingdom for the period October 1 May 31 were 1.5
per cent smaller than for the corresponding period of the 1920-29 season.
Plentiful supplies of low-priced edible vegetable oils continue to be a
factor in the depressed market for lard.

In domestic pork supplies, the downward tendency of the current sea-
son was in evidence.during May and June. It appears also that receipts of
fat pigs at certain British markets have been smaller than last year in "
each month of the current season, with the total for 0 months ended May 31
standing 14.4 per cent under the same period of last season. London Oen-
tral Market receipts of fresh British and Irish pork for June were seasoa-
ally smaller than in preceding months, but were more than 500,000 pounds:
below last year's receipts. Current figures on receipts of fresh pork fr to
other sources also were below last year. In the Irish Free State, the mM-
ber of hogs killed for curing this season, although increasing, ran behi

.. .k .. ....









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that of last season, with the June figures being the first to go above last
year's level. The generally reduced supplies of the Pritish Isles, however,
have not been of great enough significance to offset the depressing effect
upon prices exerted since last March by increasing imports of continental
cured pork.

Denmark and Netherlands

Pork production continues to expand in Denmark and Netherlands, the
leading continental sources of British cured pork imports, according to
Agricultural Commissioner Stoore at Borlin. Hog marketing are increasing,
while prices show signs of additional declines. Owing to the very favor-
able food situation, however, hog feeding is hold as still being a profit-
able enterprise. Bacon exports from Denmark for May reached the heavy
total of 54,025,000 pounds, according to preliminary returns. That figure
was larger than for any May of recent years, and indicates a return to the
heavy exports of the 1927-28 season. For tHo current season to May 31,
total bacon exports from Denmark stood 8.2 per cent ahead of last season
and second only to the corresponding e-riod of the 1927-28 season. In
spite of reported increasing N~therlands pork production, United Kingdom
import returns on bac.n continue to show only moderate receipts from that
source. In fact, the I.ay receipts of bacon from the Netherlands were the
smallest since last December and well below a yocr.ago. The season's.
total to May 31 was 30.7 per cent below that of last season and the smallest
cumulative total of the pest 4 years.

Germany

The June 1 hog census in Germany as reported by Agricultural Com-
missioner Stecre at Berlin places total hogs at 19,804,000, an increase
of 17.8 per cent over a yoer ago. Of the several age and type groups,
the heaviest increase occurs in brood sons, amounting to 22.9 per cent
over last June to reach 2,232,000 head. Substantial increases .lso
occurred in pigs 8 weeks to 6 months old, that group standing r.t 9,178,000,
un advance of 13.3 per cent. Indications vre tha-t, while the general tenden-
cy in German pork production is upward, the market receipts during June
were smaller than in both the preceding month c.nd a yor.r ago. So far this
season, the monthly receipts at 14 markets a- reported by Mr. Steero have
been smaller than for the same months of last season. Tot-1 receipts for the
season to LM.y 31 ware 7.4 per cent srmllar th-n last yer.r, while slaughter
at 36 centers for the srme period showed r drop of norrly 10 per cent.

The steady decline in hog prices accompanyingg the smrllor market-
ings brought the June average for ho,.vy hogs at Berlin down to about $13.33
per 100 pounds, a point '3.16 below a yecr ago and the lowest monthly
average since M-Iy 1928. The decline below Juno 1929 represents r drop of
19.4 per cent below last yerr, with the M.y 1930 average down 11.5 per
cent from a year ago. In feedstuffs, however, the May 1930 averages of
potatoes at Breslau rnd br.rley :t Leipzig wore lower than in Mry 1929 by
56.1 per cent and 16.6 per cent respectively. The feed situation, there-
fore, continues its generally favorable aspect, although probably to a
less marked degree thr.n in ec.rlier months in those areas whore barley is


- 3 -








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most commonly fed, since the price tendency in that grain has been upward as
hog prices have fallen. Potato prices, however, have moved down to Unusually
low levels. . .

The general weak character of the Europorn lard. mutkot brought Ham-
burg quotations for June down to about '11.55 per 100 pounds, Ir. Steered
reports. That figure is a now low level for lard in recent yoars, and
stands $2.50 below the June average for the yo.rs 1909-1913. The general
downward tendency in lIrd imports this s,!ason as against last season ras
carried into May. Those imports, most of which came from the United States,
were more than 5,000,000 pounds smaller than in May 1929. The lighter
imports of recent months, hovrver, have not yet offset the heavier takings
earlier in the current season, so that the total to Mry 31 was still 2 per
cent larger than for the period October 1 May 31, 1928-29, according to...
preliminary returns.

The continued reduced pork production as against last yo.r has been
reflected in the well maintained imports of cured pork. For every month
%f the current season, total bacon imports, largely from the Netherlands,'
have bon heavier than for the corresponding months of last season, the
preliminary figures for May being no exception. It should be noted, that
following last M rch, the figures have shorn a tendency to decline, but
total bacon imports for the season to May aL stood 75,4 "per cent higher
thrn for the same period of 1928-29.

Other European countries

The low prices ruling for foodstuffs and the favorable outlook for
current crops is stimulating hog production in Belgium, according to Consul
W. S. Reineck at Antwerp. Evidence of the increase is found in slowly~ ex-
panding market supplies of pork products, and a slow trade in recent months
for American provisions, with indicc.tions that for the rest of 1930 demand
in those lines will be considerably below the trade's expectations. Russia
continued to send considerable v.ilumos of pork to Belgium during May, some
cuts selling readily on a quality basis, notably rib backs. In most lines
Belgian products have been plentiful and favorably priced, with the result
that American stocks have been hard to move. The Belgian demand for hams
has boon fairly good, but confined largely to tinned hams coming from the
Netherlands, Denmark and Czechoslovakia. In lard, the trade has been slow
on offerings from all sources, with de-lors slow to arke future commitments.

In Estonia, the government hc.s had in effect since April 15 a sub-
sidy scheme for promoting tho production of hogs and the export of bacon,
according to Consul Harry E. C'rlson at Tallinn. In addition to placing
extra funds in the hands of hog producers, the measure contemplates the
"stabilization of bacon prices", although the- enabling r.w does not de-
scribe the method of achieving thr.t end. The plan is based on stipulated
contributions per hog exported, or the equivalent in pork, to be dati(V-:.
from the general budget, from the special taxes on abattoirs killing fo';:'
domestic c nsumption and'from export-slaughter houses on the basis of a: *:
sliding scale to be fixed by the government. The bulk of the Estonian ,
bacon exports are expected to find a market in the United Kingdom. :w
: i: j: ::









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United States and Canada

Domestic hog prices during the last three weeks of June declined from
the rather steady level of around $10.00, which had prevailed since the third
week of March and prices at Chicago, based on packers' and shippers' purchases
averaged $9.52 for the month as compared with $10.02 for May and $10.72 dur-
ing June, 1929. The price spread between heavy and light weight hogs con-
tinued narrower than a year ago, despite the substantial increase in live
weights, bringing the average to approximately that of a year earlier.

Inspected slaughter in May was about the same as in Mey 1929. It is
the only month since November 1929 in which slaughter supplies have equalled
those of the corresponding month a year earlier. Juno slaughter, amounting
to 3,689,000 hcad, was 1.9 per cent smaller thrn that of a year earlier and
3.5 per cent under inspected killings during Ma.y.

Wholesale fresh pork prices at Chicago made another decline in June,
but the cheaper cuts were higher thin in June, 1929. Shoulders, 8-12 pounds,
skinned, averr.god $15.76 as compared with $16.00 in May and $15.66 in June,
1929, while pork loins, 10-12 pounds, averaged $20.46 as against $21.42 for
May and $22.12 a year earlier.

Prices for cured products made c. general advance in Juno, but con-
tinued under those of the previous year. No. 1 hams 12-14 pounds, at Chicago
advanced from the $24.62 average for lMay to $25.75 in June, tjhich was 87
cents under the price in June, 1929. No. I S.P. Cure bacon, 8-10 pounds
averaged $23.25 for June or a dollar higher than M.y and 89 cents under last
year's corresponding figure. Total becon exports in cy amounted to 8,553,000
pounds as compared to 7,979,000 pounds in April and 14,395,000 pounds in May
1929; the latter being the hc.viest monthly movement of the 1928-29 m rketing
year. The movement to United Kingdom during April ,nd May was about 32 per
cent under thrt of 1929. These 7erc the first months of the present marketing
yerr to show a decrease from that of a yccr er.rlier. Takings of bacon by
Gcrmr.ny in Mr.y 7wer 44 and 58 per cent smvllcr than April 1930 and May 1929,
respectively. Mvy exports of haes rnd shoulders amounting to 13,845,000 pounds
shoTwed an increase over those of both April 1930 and May 1929, largely due to
increased takings by the United Kingdom.

Storage stocks of pork in the United States continue much smaller
thr.n a ycar ago. On June 1 they mounted to 675.3 million pounds, or 22.5
per cent less than those of r yoc.r earlier r.nd 13.5 per cent luss then the
five-yc.r,. vcrage on that date.










HP-8 -6 6


Refined lard prices in Chicago declined $1.00 during the last twC
weeks of June, making r.n average of $11.00 for the month as against $11.50
for Vay and $12.85 in June, 1929. Lord exports in ecy mounting to
62,562,000 pounds, were 25 per cent larger than those of April but were
2.5 per 'cent under'those of June 1929. All of the principal foreign
buyers increased their tekings over those of April, with United Kingdom
showing the largest increase. Domestic lard stocks in cold storage on
June 1, amounting to 115.3 million pounds, wcro 37.2 per cent smaller
than'on June 1, 1929 and 20.7 per cent under the five-year June 1 average.

Corn prices continued low during June. No. 3 yellow at Chicago
averaged 79 cents, the srmo c.s last month, and 12 cents under the June
1929 average. The United States June corn-hog ratio declined from 11.6
in lMay to 11.5 in June,

The June Pig Survey of the Department of Agriculture showed a
decrease of about 6 per cent in the spring pig crop of 1930 from that of
1929 for the United States as a whole, and a 3 per cent decrease in the
11 Corn Bolt Stctes. Interpreting these figures in terms of future market,
supplies the Pig Survey -Report srys:

"If the June survey this year indicates the change in
the mprkot supply of spring pigs from the Corn Belt States
about as the June surveys for the past three years have in-
dicated these changes, the market supply from this year's
spring crop will be but little different from the supply
from the 1929 spring crop r.nd somewhat smaller than the
supply from that of 1928."

The number of sows bred or to be bred for fall farrow, as reported
in the Survey, indlicates but little change in the number that. vill farrow
this fall from the number that farrowed in the ft.ll of 1929. The number
of hogs over six months of age in the Corn Belt on Juno 1 was reported to
be about 8 per cent smaller then a ytar earlier. This, as well as other
indicA.tions, points to a considerable reduction in market supplies from
July to September, inclusive, from the unseasonably large supplies during
that period in 1929.

Inspected slaughter in Cranadc continues under that of a year ago.
M.y slaughter was 7.4 per cent larger than the April slaughter, but.7 per
cent under that of May 1929. The total inspected killings for the first
8 months of the crop year was about 8 per cent under the corresponding
figure for the previous crop year. This reduction is being reflected in
a smaller export movement and increased takings from the United States.



M A
:* a


. . ": i. f: j i: E:

.. .:.:: .. : ,







S D POR PROUCTS: Indicesof f ign supplies and de-7-
HOGS AND PORK PROEUCTS: Indices of foreign supplies and demand
?"


Country
and item


: : Oct. M.ay
: Unit 1909-10 : 1924-25 : : :
:' :tolSI9Z1 4:to 1920-29:1926-27:1927-28:1920-29:1929-30


:average :


UNITED KINGDOM: ::
Production -
Fat pigs, cer-.
tain markots......:1000' s:
Supplies, :
domestic fresh : 1000 :
pork, London......: pounds:
Imports
Bacon -
Denmark.......... .: "
Irish F. State....: "
United States.....: "
Canada. .......*...: "
Others.. .........: "
Tot ...........: :
Ham, totve .........: :
Lard, total.........: "
DENMARK:
Exports -
Bacon..............: "
CANADA:
Slaughter -
Hogs, inspected....:1000's:
GERMANY:
Production -
Hog receipts
14 cities.........: "I
Hog slaughter
36 centers........:. :
Imports 1000
Bacon, total.......:pounds:
Lard, total........: "
UNI TE STATES:
Sla'ghter -
Hogs, inspected:...:1900's:
Exports : :
Bacon : 1000 :
United Kingdom....: pounds:
Germany........... : :
Cuba............ .: :
Total...........: :I
Hams, shoulders.....:
United Kingdom....: "
Total...........: :


Lard -
United Kingdom...,:
Germany.......... .
Cuba .... ... ......:
ii...: Netherlands......*
otal. .... ...: '


430:





162,459:

124,78-1:
27,209:
27,954:
342,406:
60,729:
148,270:





1,154:






3,00J:

1,855:
130,4014:


22,467:


87,643:
1,204:
5,114:
119,927:

92,422:
107,272:

118,203:
98,123:
24,895:
26,136:
326,974:


nvfern.QF l:


3



1
6

1


438: 385: 455: 519: 4-14


42,025: 45,303: 62,922:-61,270: 47,739


33,487: 332,645:422,037:367,345:396,626
36,602: 20,295: 37,624: 43,764: 29,957
74,607: 58,075: 42,400: 42,638: 46,694
50,202: 40,939: 2G,403:-14,369: 10,-20
.05,553: 143,965:144,378:156,923:142,040
;00,691:: 603,919:672,922:625,044:625,737
81,403: 65,010: 64,004: 67,570: 71,924
.81,212: 161,137:198,303:193,110:139,554


.
.
332,205:


1,080:



2,190:

2,731:

12,065:
150,588:


32,856:


45,404:
7,931:
14,027:
96,436:

95,006:
113,979:

155,919:
130,674:
54,772:
29,392:
500,470:


344,013:411,564:362,455:392,008


1,867: 1,917: 1,730: 1,503



2, 50: 2,951: 2,444: 2,263

2,529: 3,631: 3,219: 2,899

12,079: 6,360: 7,217: 12,658
154,220:134,858:147,109:150,245


29,822: 35,255: 35,370: 33,169
: .

35,453: 27,136: 31,236: 37,574
4,103: 7,210: 3,926: 5,054
14,717: 12,899: 10,081: 11,275
73,343: 80,521: 31,107: 35,467

75,136: 64,833: 60,634: 65,531
80,363: 80,762: 76,012: 81,918

140,810:168,460:161,935:167,553
112,393:115,369:146,648:130,305
54,139: 55,476: 56,211: 54,532
31,653: 25,988: 29,305: 34,833
447,681:505,401:563,703:552,392


nver-no n v i V


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UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

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