The Cotton situation

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The Cotton situation
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United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
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--A


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICTLTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics U- rIT
Washington

OS-22 August 26, 1935
THE COTTON SITUATION
-- - -

Summary

The August forecast of the 1935 United States cotton crop of

11,9,0oo00 bales of 500 rounds gross is estimated to be roughly Pquivalent

to about 11.350,tCO running bales, including allowance for city crop. This,

together with the world carry-over of American cotton at the beginning of

the current season of close to 13,400,000 bales, gives an indicated 1953-39

world supply of this cotton of 25,250,000 running bales. Such a supply

would be slightly larger than the 24,695,*000 bale supply of last season,

about 3-1/4 million bales larger than the average for the 5 years ended

1936-37, but 1 million bales less than the record :vpply of 1932-33.

Preliminary estimates of 1935-39 production in China, northeast

Brazil and Mexico, and acreage in Egypt indicate that the combined pro-

duction in these areas might show a decline in comparison with 1937-358 of

between 1-3/4 and 2 million bales. On the other hand, official estimates

of the plantings in India up to August 1 show a small percentage increase.

While the total production of foreign cotton is expected to be consider-

ably less than last year, the world carry-over of this cotton at the

beginning of this season was probably about 2,700,000 bales larger than

at the beginning of last season.

Since the 'first week of July, sales of cotton textiles by domestic

mills apparently have averaged considerably less than production. Cotton

mill activity and output increased materially during July, however, largely






OS-22 .. 2-

as a result of the good-to-heavy sales by mills during June. When adjusted

for seasonal variation, cotton mill activity in July averaged 25 and 15

percent, respectively, higher than in May id June.

Reports from foreign cotton mill centers indicate that in general

foreign manufacturersi sales continued below the reduced output for the

past several w7peks and that mills in only a few countries experienced as

favorable developments in June as did United States mills. Foreign consump-

tion by foreign mills has probably declined more thfn seasonally since May.

From early July to August 15, a comparatively steady decline occurred

in domestic cotton prices. Middling 7/S inch in the 10 designated markets

on the latter date averaged g.20 cents per pound compared with slightly

over 9 cents in the first full week of July and approximately 11 cents in

the first week of August last year. The decline during July and early

August of nearly 1 cent per pound canceled a large part of the advance

which occurred during the preceding 6 weeks and reduced prices to less than

52 percent of the July parity farm price, thereby making Government loans

on the 1958 crop mandatory.


PRICES

Between July 8 and August 15 domestic cotton prices declined nearly
1 cent per pound, the price of Middling 7/9 inch cotton in the 10 markets
on the latter date averaging 9.20 cents per pound. This decline canceled
a large part of the advance which occurred during the preceding 6 weeks and
reduced prices to less than 52 percent of the July parity farm price. There-
fore, Government loans on the 1939 crop became mandatory under the provisions
of the amended Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938. Since August 15 the av-
erage price of Middling 7/8 inch in the 10 markets has fluctuated within a
few points (hundreds of a cent) of g-l/4 cents.

Factors apparently contributing to the price decline since early
July included the continued unfavorable position of cotton textile mills





CS-22


in most foreign countries, further restrictions on the consumption of cotton
in Japan in order to conserve foreign exchange, the comparatively loy level
of sales of cotton goods by domestic mills, and more favorable domestic crop
conditions than formerly had been anticipated.

Despite the decline in the price of American cotton in the United
States, the average in I.I-erpool during July was higher than in June. Prices
of all important foreign growths at Liverpool averaged higher in July than
in June but they were materially 21 -to 36 percent lower than in July last
year. For the month, the ratio of Iiverpool prices of American Middling
(fair staple, approximately 7/8 inch) cotton, to Indian (3 types Broach,
Oomra, and Sind) and Peruvian (Tanguis). averaged somewhat higher than in
June and the highest for many months. The'"i6''6f American cottofinih Juily
and June was the same relative to Brazilian Soo Paulo but was slightly lower
relative to Egyptian Uppers.


EXPORTS

Exports of 5,598,000 running bales of American cotton during the 12
months ended July 31 exceeded those of the previous season by 158,000 bales
or 3 percent. Exports in July totaled 196,000 bales and exceeded those of
a year earlier by 72,000 bales. The largest increase over last year occur-
red in exports to Japan, with the 70,00 bales exported, representing an
increase of 42,000 bales. Smaller absolute increases but lager percentage
increases also occurred in exports to the United Kingdom, Italy, France,
Belgium, and a few other countries (see table 1).

For the entire season exports to the United Kingdom were slightly
Pver 400,OCO bales (or 36 percent) larger than in the 1936-37 season and
the largest since 1928-29. Exports to Italy showed the next largest ab-
solute increase over those of the 1936-37.season with a total of 505,000
compared with 398,000 bales. These increases, together with substantial
increases to a number of other countries, were largely offset by a decline
of 860,000 bales (or 55 percent) in exports to Japan. It is significant
to note, however, that exports to Japan in 1936-37 were considerably in
excess of consumption with a resulting accumulation of. stocks; during the
season just ended the opposite situation occurred.


DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION

UNITED STATES: June sales large, mill activity greatly increased

Domestic cotton mill activity, adjusted for seasonal variation, in
July averaged 15 and 25-percent higher, respectively, than in May and June
but 20 percent less than in July last year. A rather large increase over
May occurred despite the fact that since the first week of July sales of
cotton textiles by domestic mills apparently have averaged considerably
less than production as a result of the good-to-heavy mill sales during
June. Trade reports indicate that domestic mill activity during the first
half of August was about maintained at the improved rate reached during
the latter half of July.


0 3 -






Total domestic cotton mill consumption in July amounted to 450,000
running bales compared with 583,000 in that month of 1937, 607,000 In 1936,
and 391,000 bales in July 1935o This brought the 12 months' consumption of
all cotton to 5,756,000 bales which wps 28 ?nd 9 percent less than in the 2
preceding seasons but larger than in 1933-34 and Ic34-35, Total United
States mill consumption of American cotton in the 1937-38 season amounted to
5,615,000 bales which, due to the increased activity in July, was somewhat
larger than previously had been expected. The consumption of this cotton,
however, was still 2,150,000 bales (or 1I percent) less than the record
consumption of the previous season and 600,000 bales (or 10 percent) less
than in 1935-36.

FOREIGN COUNTRIES: Total consumption of all growths reduced despite some
increase in American

Total foreign consumption of all cotton for the season just past is
now tentatively placed at -,bout 21 million bales according to recent estimates
of the New York Cotton Exchange Service. This is around 2 million bales be-
low the record consumption of approximately 23 million bales estimated for
the 1936-37 season. Consumintion of American cotton outside the United States
is estimated at about 5,635,000 bales compared with 5,300,000 bales in 1936-37
and an average of 6,*40,000 bales during the 5 years ended 1936-37; it was the
smallest consumption, with the exception of the preceding season, since 1923-24.

EUROPE: I/ Situation unchanged

The last month of the 1937-38 season in Europe brought no significant
change in the situation and outlook for the cotton industry.

Mill activity in most countries continued to decline partly seasonal
however. A little more new business in yarns and fabrics was noted in Western
Europe, and inquiries have increased. Some hope is expressed for improved
Danubian rural buying power in the coming season; otherwise, prospects for
improvement in European domestic buying power are not encouraging. Reports
indicate a gradual working-off of stocks of fabrics and yarns in several countries.
Hand-to-mouth buying in the raw cotton market, characteristic of spinner oper-
ations during the 7 months of 1938, should be followed by improvement in the
fall, according to some reports. The chief factor affecting trading enterprise
in general, however, is the uncertain political situation in Europe and the Far
East. Economic conditions in the United States are also being observed with
deep interest because of their bearing upon world demand for raw materials and
so generally upon the world economic trend.
f *
There has been little change in the competitive position between
American and other growths. During June-July Oomraa and Broach as well as

l/ Based on a report dated August 4 prepared in the office of the Agricul-
tural Attache at London.


_'4-


CS-22





\S-22 5-

Brazilian have become slightly cheaper, on a relative basis, but are still
relatively more expensive thar 1 and 2 ye.rs ago. The spreads, however,
have widened measur-bly in favor of these competitive growths, as compared
with the middle of the campaign. TI-e s>me is not true, however, of Punjab
American. It appears, therefore, thi.t except for Egyptian Uppers, competitive
growths have lagged behind Amierican in the advancing market since the end of
May.

In Germany, the increase in imports of raw cotton and cotton waste in
1937-38 about 30 percent compare. zwith l'0 37 has never seemed fully re-
concilable with the co.itinue! c ).'-.- t I- "i short-ge of supplies. It now
appears, how ver, than.t most of the increase in imports has gone into a raw
material reserve. For, the 30 pcrc,.nt larger imports in the first 9 months
of the season '.--re accompa-nied oly 1"by a 2- percent rise in the official index
of cotton ujill jctivityr a.rd this in the face of greatly increased use of
cell-wool by cotton mills.

Great Britain

Inquiry fc.r cotton goods in Great Britain h.s been reported as fairly
good for July, but actual business apparently has not yet broadened materially.
Some progress is apparently being made in the movement of goods held by
manufacturers for delivery instructions, but the majority of manufacturers are
reported to have little more than 50 percent of looms operating and to be ex-
periencing difficult,. in finding orders to maintain that rate of activity.

The yarn trade is little if any- more satisfactory, with deliveries re-
ported at only about C0 percent of full-time capacity, and with much of the
new business done in counts or taken by firms outside the price n.greenents.
Forwardings of raw co-tton to mills in July were at a rate slightly above that
of June. Raw cotton markets, while not so quiet as in the spring months, have
experienced only mild activity. A fairly good business in Sao Paulo Brazilian
and some increase in demand for -1yptinns is reported.

In certain quarters it is believ-d a substantial improvement in the
Autumn must follow the hand-to-mouth operations which have characterized
trading so far iln 1933. Trade reports from g.-pt indicate some forward buying
of new crop cotton in anticipation of ,ich an upturn. S'-me encouragement is
derived also from the sustained levels of retail trade in Great Britain. Not-
withstanding the lower pitch of business activity indicated by increases of
unemployment rnd falling off of railway receipts, sales of piece goods in June,
on -. value b osis, were but 1.5 percent lower than in June 1937, while for all
categories of good reported there was an increase of S.6 percent. Allowing
for the different incidence of holidays in May and June of the 2 years, the May-
June total in 1l93"3 was 1.1 percent above the year before.

In the export field, there is some hope of favorable results from trade
negotiations under way with India Pnd shortly to be undertaken rith Colombia as
well as from negotiations with reorese-.tr.tives of the Egyptian Government





-6-


concerning textile imports, duties on,.c,,ich -pre steeply incrensod in April.
The chief factor, however, is the uncertain political .it-:.-.tior irn Europe and
the Far East. The course of recovery in the Tnitod States alsp is being ob-
served with much interestt .

Germany

Continued high spinnng and weavinr mill activityy was reported in
Germany for the second half of June and July, on the lower basic level
customary at this tine of the year. It is still indicated that it has not
been possible to satisfy demand fully, and a lack of skilled labor is reported.

A remarkable development in the current season is that the raw supplies
imported have increased substantially c-mp-red with last year, while manu-
facturing has increased only to a very limited extent. This also explains
statements to the effect that, with increased raw supplies, it had not been
possible to satisfy fully current dema.nd. Cotton mill activity, according to
the official index, in the period August-April, 1937-39, was only about 2
percent above the same period 1936-37, while net imports of cotton spinning
material increased by almost 30 percent. At the snme time, supplies available
from domestic cell-wool production also increased substantially. It is,
therefore, concluded that Germany is likely to have accur.ulated since the
middle of 1937 a measurablee reserve of cotton spinning material, perhaps
around 300,000 bales, in addition to the roughly 250,000 bales available on
July 31, 1939 2/. Since Germany, in the c:-.sa of an emergency that w-uld
c-npletely shut off foreign supplies, could manage to get along fairly well
on an annual su'iply of around a million bales of cotton spir.ning materials,
current accumulated stocks would d cover About one-half of Germar-y's needs for
a year the remaining half being more than made up by domestic cap-city for
the production of cell-wool 3/. The annual capacity of coell-wool is reported
to have reached, by now, 330,700,000 pcoun-ds, g0 percent of --hich are used for
the cotton industry (i.e. 264,600,000 .pounds or 540,000 bqles). Such, then,
is the measure of cotton textile autonomy attained in Germany; considering
the present supply situation, the country if needs be could do .-ith-.ut imports
for a year .nrl. yet have enough cotton spini.. material at its disoosnl t) take
care of all urgent requirements.

2 Bremen port statistics in July 193 s'":c-7 an increase in stocks over last
year by about 80,000 running bales. The n.ccuuluation su1.ested above is,
therefore, likely to have been directed to spi:n.ning mills n-.d other inland
points.
3J This production is now being made 100 percent domestic: in Germany- proper
it is tc be based exclusively on beech woodland other domestically available
material (str'wv in the Mark Brandenburg). Austria, of course, h.s ample
supplies of the preferable fir wood as well.


GS-22






-7- -


General difficulties over the ASKI tr:s.in_7 with Brazil, which during
June hod c.i tc an abolition l"y the 7...nk of Br', il of the purchase of German
ASKI marks and a prohibition to sell cotton to Gerna::y except arninst pay-
ment in foreign excha-.'e, s-em to be on their way to settlerent. On July 21
it ras reported that the Ba:.co do Brazil has r--'-uiod its purchase of ASKI
marks. Nothir': definite, hvever, has been hoard of the cotton export question.

Austria

Ac-ordin- to published statistics, new soles of cotton yarn by Austrian
mills have dr.slicnll:- declined since the annx-tion. While snles in March
1036 '7ore T,11*i 0,0 r.'nd-, thea- fell to 2,063,000 --unds in April and 1,659,000
pounds in May j. These fi-ures -r.-bpbly reflect l?.rgely' the loss by Austrian
spinning millk ,f -,, n-,v of their Je-.Tish. ci:storers in southeastern Eurnpe, as
.7ell as trar.sit-ry difficultiess i<.crcnt in the reshuffling, on racial rounds,
of the Austrian textile in"'.stjry and trade.

Czecho lo'.-oki,-

K:ill activ-ity in Czechoslovwkia declined durin- the first half of 1939,
and the d--ores3,.: n in the inustry continued. Business has not improved and
the ex-nort outlok continues gloomy, e-cept pcs-.ibly for hopes for a better
farmer-purch-si:-.-- ".,-: in the Danube basin. The political uncertainties in
central Europe re cc*-!ucive to only a hand-to-mouth bu:1in policy.

It is indicated that the Czechoslovak export institute intends to
embark cn an intensive export prc:anc cc.paign for Czech textile goods.
A recent trade agreement between Czechoslovakia and Turkey provides for
higher Turkish import contin'cnts for Czechoslovak cotton fabrics. Bulgaria,
on the other hand, h,-s recently decided. not to allot any more currency buying
permits for frreig-n cotton yarns and cotton goods which amounts to a virtual
import proh.ibi-ti'n for some time to come.

Poland

Coripulsory afi:.ture of the small do-estic production of "Cotonin" -
the Polish versi'.: cf staple fiber to a specified group of cotton yarn counts
has recently been ducred in Polandc. It is said that a monthly quota of
8S2,000 pounds of cotonin must be adlmixel.

NTew sales for the summer season in June and July are said to hove been
fairly satisfactory, and. revival of business was s-nowhat stimulated by the
strength of the raw market. ILarge accur.ul.ted stocks of manufactures carried
over from last -,-ar are reported to have been well reduced,


4/ Textile-Zeitun:-, Berlin, June 29, and July 12, 1939.






CS-22


lFrance *

In late June and the first half of July, cotton spinners and weavers
reported more inquiry and some I.mp'ovement in actual sales of yarns and cloth,
stimulated by firmn,-,s in the raw cotton ma-ket. Prices for yarns and manu-
factures also were firm and it is said that stocks in spinning as well as
weaving mills have worked to a rather low level,

August is ex'nected to be quiet and of much-reduced activity because
of the customary paid-holiday shut-down of the mills. Accordingly, it has
been announced that the f-.tures market at Havre will be closed during August.

The s-)ecial import fee of 0.01 cent per pound of cotton imported was
raised recently to 0,02 cent. Proposals for a muec-. more subst-ontial in-
crease in this fee which is used for the promoti,;n of cotton growing in
the French colonies were under consideration, but presumably were abandoned.

Italy 5.V

Yo material improvement in the Italian cotton industry is expected in
the near future. The domestic :.rket is still reported to be overloaded
with yarns and textiles that wv' a vLsnufactured from high-priced cotton and
cannot be disposed of at present without a loss.

.......Cotton mill activity in Italy through June .-.ppears to have continued....
its slightly dovwnwa.rd trend. January-May ran7 cotton imports amounted to
340,375 bales of 4'r' pounds, compared 7:ith 317,779 tales in the first 5
months of 1937. It:lian exports of cotton yarns to countries other than
her colonies were 13,256,000 pounds from January through May, compared with
17,092,000 pounds in the same period last year. But exports of cotton tex-
tiles were insignificantly larger than a year earlier.

According to a recent decision of the authorities, wages of workers
in the cotton industry were raised 10 percent to compensate for the in-
creased cost of living. According to newspaper reports, trade negotiations
under wal, between Italy and Brazil are hoped to result in larger Italian
buying of Brazilian cotton, as well as larger Brazilian buying of Italian
textile (rayon) goods. Italinn imports of coffee from Brazil are said to
have been curtailed since the conquest of Abyssinia, and therefore, it is
sought to substitute cotton for coffee in Italy's imports from Brazil.

ORIENT: Mill consumption higher in China 6/, lower in Japan

Keen demand for yarn from South China, active speculative buying
and low stocks resulted in new record highs in yarn prices at Shanghai
during the past month, the Bureau's Shanghai office reported on August 12.

5/ Largely based on information suipplied by the American Consulate General
at Milan.
6/ China, including Manchuria.





- 9 -


As a result, spinners'r.margins wera ver,- favorable and cotton mill activity in
Shanghai showed some further increase. M1ill activity in Hankow and Manchuria
also increased during this period. Total cotton consumption during July,
however, was estimated at 120,000 ",--0es, the same as in June but much higher
than in the early part of the season, It is expected that some further increase
in mill activity nnd cotton consLu-otion will occur during the months immediately
ahead.

Prices -if Chinese cotton in Shanghai advanced in July but not to the
same extent aa did nominal quota.onls of non-Chinese growths. Consequently,
there was a further waidning of tVie disparity in the prices of these growths
and only small bookings of Brazilian and Egyptian cotton were reported. For
several months, however, imports of cotton into Shanghai and Manchuria have
been very snall.

Jan-an

Unofficial reports indicate that cotton consu'.ption by Japanese mills
declined sono',;hat in July as compared with June and were perhaps only about two-
thirds as large as in July last year. In June, cotton consumption by members cf
the Japanese Cotton Spinners' Arzociation was the smallest in about 5- years,
whereas in Septenber 1937 ci.i.surption reached a new record high.

The decline in cotton consu:.ption during recent months has resulted in
part front the Japanese Govcrnnent's cotton control measures, first in restrict-
ing and later in prohibiting the use of cotton for n.manufacture of yarns and
cloth for sale in J.pan and more roce: tly in Manchuria'and ard6as bof China where
Japanese currency is being used, and also from marked declines in sales to ex-
port markets which in 1937 constituted about half of the market for cotton tex-
tiles produced in Japan. The numerous Government regulations pertaining to
cotton and c*.tton textiles are said to have caused considerable uncertainty and
confusion. In l.toe JOly, however, observers believed that -.;ore definite regu-
lations would be forthcoming and the new system of control would go into full
operation about August 1.

Reports indicate that sales of cotton textiles by Japanese mills in
early August continued on n. very restricted basis. This, together with the fact
that stocks of yarn r.nd cloth are apparently quite large, makes it seem likely
that cotton consumption in Japan will continue on a very restricted basis for
the weeks immediately ahead.

Present indications are that total mill consumption of cotton in Japan
during the 1937-3g season totaled about 32 billion bales. (American in running
bales and foreign in equivalent bales of 47g pounds.) This is almost million
bales less than in Vhe previous year and the smallest since 1933-34

SUPPLY

American Cotton

The world carry-over of American* c',tton on August 1 is now estin.ted at
13.4 million bales compared ,ith 6.2 million a year earlier, and the previous
record high of 13.3 million bales. This carry-over, together wi-th the present


CS-22





GS-22


- 10 -


estimate of the United States crop of ll,988,000 bales of 500 pounds gross
(roughly equivalent to about 11,850,000 runu-.ing bales, including allowance for
city crop) gives an indicated 1939-39 world supply of this cotton of 25,250,000
running bales. This is slightly 2 percent more than the 24.7 million bale sup-
ply of 1937-38, 31 million bnles larger than the average for the 5 years ended
1936-37, but roughly 1 million bales less than the record supply of 1932-33.

The United States crop of 11,988,000 bales forecast by the Crop Reporting
Board, based on conditions as of August 1, is 6,959,000 bales or 37 percent less
than the 1937 crop and 1,213,000 bales loss than the 10-year (1927-3) average.
The average yield for the United States was forecast as 217.9 pounds per acre,
which is 49 pounds less than the record yield in 1937 but, with this exception,
the highest since 1S99 when an estimated 223 pounds per acre were produced.

The cotton acrnago of 26,347,000 acres which 7as used in the August Crop
Report is the estimated acreage in cultivation on July 1 less the 10-year aver-
age abandonment. This esti-.Pted acreage for harvest is 23 percent smaller than
in 1937, 26 percent less than the 10-year average, and smaller than any acreage
harvested since 1900.
Forgien Cotton
On the basis of the latest estimates of the 1937-38 coi.ercial supply of
foreign cotton and tentative estimates of the quantity of this cotton consumed
by mills and destroyed, the world carry-over of cotton other than American is
estimated at from 9,750,000 to 10,000,000 bales. This represents a material
increase over thae record high. carr.-over of-7,100,000 bales a year earlier.

There is as yet corparatively little information available vrith respect
to the crop prospects in foreign countries. The total Chinese crop, however, is
now expected to be approximately 1,400,000 bales less than that of 1937-39; if
this reduction is accompanied by some not decline in all other foreign countries
combined, the total supply of foreign cotton would be about the same as the
record supply of last season.

Preliminary estimates of production in northeastern Brazil and in Mexico
-place the 13S8-39 crop in these two areas at 122,000 and g80,000 bales, respec-
tively, less than that of 1937-38.

In Egypt the estimated 1938-39 cotton acreage is about 10 percent smaller
than the record acreage of the previous year. With the sane average yields as
in 1937-38, the new Eg,,ptian crop on this acreage would be 200,000 bales less
than last year's production.
Contr-:':- to earlier trade reports which indicate a reduction in the cur-
rent season's pjloanting in Inaia, the official report of -lantings up to August 1,
which usually represent a little less than 60 percent of t-tal plantings, gives
an increase over last year of 3 percent. Co-paratively small acreage increases
have been reported for Chosen, Bulgaria, and Greece (see table 2).





Table 1.- Cotton: Exports from United States, Egypt and British 'India to specified
countriesispecified periods
July .: August 1 to July 31
10-yr. : : : :1938 as: 10-yr.: : : : 1937-38 as
Country of origin :average : : :a per- :average: : : :a percentage
and destination :1923-24 : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 :centage:1923-24:1935-36:1936-37:1937-38: of
.: to : : : : of to : : : : 1936-37
:... 1932-33 : : : 1937 :1932-33: ::
S1,OUO 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000


Exports from :running
United States to :'bales
Germany ...... : 5
United Kingdom..: 50
France ........: 19
Italy ....I....: 33
Spain ,.,.,.,.: 13
Belgium .......: 7
Canada *.......: 10
Japan .........: 60
China .........: 19
A4- l1,i 91rli^' '^c i


Total ....


Exnorts from


running running running running running running running
bales bales bales Percent bales bales bales bales Percent
-5 23 9 39.1 1,803 '76 650 656 100.9


61
13
6
2
2
10
16
1/
71'


24
3
11
0
2
18
28
0
15


31
4
22
0
6
13
71
I/


129,2
133.3
200.0
"0.0
300.0
72.2
250.0

273.3


1,743
820
679
283
187
206
1,271
289
599


1,410
681
380
207
157
248
10479
36
610


1,144
655
398
1/
T54
F07
1,550
14
568


1,552
716
505
1
190
2,6
691
23
1,018


135.7
109.3
126.9

123.4
80.1
44.6
164.3
179.2


S
H
I


327 156 124 196 1 8.- 71 8 T*-- 973 5,440 5,598 12.9
July August 1 to July 31
:10-yr, : : : .l93p.as: 10-yr.: : : 1937-38 as
:average: : : :a per- :average: : : :a percentage
:1923-24: 1936 : 1937 : 1938 :centage:1923-24:1935-36:1936-37:1937-38: of
: to : : : : of : to : : : 1936-37
:1932-33: : : 1937 :1932-33: : -
:1,000 1I000 11000 1,000 1#,000 110o00 1,000 1 000
: bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bales


Egypt toE :478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb. 478 Ib.
United Kingdom..: 30 31 16 33
France ......... 11 7 11 11
United States .. 7 4 .1 3
Germany ....... 7 10 6 23
Italy ........: 6 2 6 10
Japan ......... 3 5 1 I1
Switzerland .... 3 3 2- 4
U.S.S.R.(Russia) 7 2/ 2/2/


Percent 478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb.
206.3 572- 578 613 56
100.0 192 238 210 235.
300.0 167 53 61 38
383.3 107 151 139 218
166.7 99 82 116 12Q
1,100.0 65 118 209 90
200.0 62 56 76 78
51 2/ 2/ 2/


Percent
94.0
111.9
62.3
156.8
103.4
43.1
..102.6


Continued -






Table 1.- Cotton: Export from United States, Egypt and British India to specified
countries, specified periods Continued


July


I10-yr. :
Country of origin :average :
and destination :1923-24 : 1936
: to :


Exports from
Egypt to (Cont'd)
Spain .......*
Czechoslovakia..
British India ..
Poland & Danzig.
Other countries.
Tctal ......








Exports-friom ...
British India to
Japan .......


Italy ..........:
-*' China ........ :
.. Germany ........:
Belgium ........:
United Kingdom..:
France .......:


Spain ...*....:
Netherlands
Other countries.:


August 1 to July 31


: : :1938'as: 10-yr.
: : :a per- :average
: 1937 : 1938 :centage:1923-24


:1932-33 :
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bales bales bales bales
: 478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb.
: 34 O i/~
g-'- ---[--- 0_ 17-
2 4 3 -5
1 3 4 5
1 2 1 3
1 11 9 17
8 -86 60 125..


,Tung
.10-yr. : un
:average : :
:1923-24 : 1936 : 1937 : 1938
: to : :
:C1932-33 : : :


: 1,000
: bales
;478 lb.
: 106


16
15
15
5
3
6


Total .......: 238


1,000
bales
478 lb.
129
2
2
20
18
45


1,000 1,000
bales bales
478 lb. 478 lb.
188 63
10 5
9 1
9 10
12 16
67 -
1 21
6 3/
2
12 6


258 316


of : to
1937 :1932-33
S$000
bales
Percent 478 lb.

166.7 31
125.0 25
300.0 13
188.9 31
208.3 1,463


S: : 19.37-38 as
: : : a percentage
:1935-36:1936-37:1937-38: of
S: : 1936-37
;:s


1,000o 1,00 1,000
bales bales bales
478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb.
...... 99 0 1
66 77 62
68 90 132
34 33 43
155 204 199
1,695 1,828 1,792


Percent,


80.5
146.7
130.3
97.5
95.7


: ..August 1 to June 31
:1938 as: 10-yr. : :, : : .1937-38 as
:a per- :average : : :a percentage
:centage:1923-24 :1935-36:1936-37:1937-38: of
Sof : to : : 1936-37
S1937 :1932-33 : :
S ,000o 1,000 10o00 I-7UO
bales bales bales bales
Percent 478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb. 478 lb. percent
33.5 1,206 1,473 1,920 620 32.3
50.6 277 77 182 84 46.2
11.1 287 86 19 59 610.5
111i1 -180 229 157 116 73.9
133.3 173 187 266 118 44.4
46.3 164 425 480 244 50.3
2,100.0 134 135 106 92 86.3
-- 57 57 6 3/ --
35 35 47 */ -
133.3 57 143 192 2-r 112.0


.6 2 ;7, f 583,375 1,548 45.9


Compiled from official sources. Current figures on exp-orts from Egypt and India are from cables.
Iy Less than 500 bales. 2/ Included in all other,' if any was exported. 3/ Not reported by cable.


T. i ... .. .. .


*
ft
ft


6 1


k> 'Tl


... ..... .. ..... ...... .... .. ... .... Il r ....





Table 2.-Cotton: Estimates of acreage and production,l/specified countries 1934-35 to 1938-39

: Acreage I: Production
Country :194-35:1935-36:1936-37:1937-38 2/:1938-39 2/:1934-35:1935-36:1936-37:1937-38 2/:1938-39 2/
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: 1,000 1,000 ,00 1,000 1,000 100 : bales bales bales bales bales
: acres acres acres acres acres :478 lbs.473 lbs.478 b1hs._7 lbs. 478 Ibs.
:
United States ..: 26,866 27,640 30,029 34,001 26,347 : 9,636 10,'38 12 99 18,946 11,988
India / ...... : 23,972 25,999 25,219 26,084 4,065 .1,965 j,285 4,867
China 4/ .......: 7,078 6,250 3,447 9,300 3,24.5 2,6 67 1,970 5/3,600 2,200
Russia ..........: 4,787 4,827 5,023 5,163 : 1,738 L, 250 ,3 250 3, 482
Egypt ..........: 1,798 1,733 1,781 2,053 1,852 : 1,566 1,769 1,897 2,282
Brazil ......... : 3,981 5,054 5,220 1,328 1,757 1,321 211
Peru ...........: 368 400 409 : 345 393 404 424
Mexico ......... : 418 599 844 929 : 223 251 395 340 260
Argentina .....: 707 763 713 1,036 295 373 141 281
Uganda .........: 1,186 1,366 1,487 1,737 212 2?2 269 514
Anglo Egyptian :
Sudan ........ : 365 392 475 443 .27 201 8 264
Chosen ........ : 474 514 560 "548 578 : 136 189 119 216
Iran .......... : 237 : 128 129 157
Turkey ......... 487 521 628 783 : 162 186 157 277
Bulgaria .......: 48 89 78 113 143 : 18 39 29 40
Greece .........: 90 111 138 181 204 : 36 49 59 77
Italy ..........: 7 10 27 54 : 4 4 10 20
Kenya ..........: : 7 13 19 15
Nlyasaland ......: 42 84 91 : 8 16 9 8
Estimated total:
in foreign
countries .....: 48,794 51,930 55,672 58,260 : 14,204 16,052 18,501 19,413
Estimated world:
total .........: 75,660. 79,570 85,700 92,190 : 23.840 26,390 30,900 38,359
Compiled from official sources and reports of the Internatiohal Institute of Agriculture or estimated by the
Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
i/ Includes large amounts of cotton grown in India, China, and other countries for consumption on hand spindles
or in other ways in the homes without entering commercial channels. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Includes Burma.
4/ Includes Manchuria. 5/ An exceptionally questionable estimate due to the disrupted conditions existing in
-nany parts of China. Furthermore, it is significant that these conditions may result in an unusually small
proportion of this crop ever reaching commercial channels, .
This table may be used to bring to date tables on pages 4, 5, 6, and 7 of the 1938 Outlook Chart Book
for cotton.






Table 3.-Brazil, cotton: Estimates of acreage, production, and yield per acre, 1921-22 to 1938-39

S Northeastern States i/ : Southern States : All Brazil
o :Yield : :Yield : :Yield
Season : Area :Production : per : Area :Production : per : Area :Production ; per
: :: acre: : : acre :: :acre
SBales of Bales of Bales of


1921-2 .,,:
1922-23 ..q:
1923-24 ..,:
1924-25*.,:
1925-26.,,,:
1926-27 ,,,
1927-28,..
1928r29 ...
1929-30 ..:
.1930r31 ,..:
193-32. .,..:
1932-33...:
1933-34 ..,:
19345-35.....:
1935.-3.6...,
193-7....
1937-38 2/.:
* 1.958-39. 2/.:


. : Acres


478 lbs.


923,312 365,802
1,067,413 387,765
1,085,594 403,428
1,455,473 564,719
1,219,807 446,146
1,238,861 431,156
1,196,209 390,200
1,223,140 384,804
1,570,377 518,372
1,406,772 402,146
1,641,690 428,882
1,177,632 258,644
1,711,980 483,278
2,503,123 783,159
2,539,736 826,029
2,123,486 685,741
3/ 790,981
3/ 668,759


Acres


333,508
443,918
463,923
456,404
322,426
183,153
179,893
170,195
155,236
287,229
358,246
524,939
1,138,667
1,477,465
2,514,022
3,096,833


478 Ibs. Lb.


93,686
96,509
149,04J
174,814
S114,588
62,259
73,739
45,277
52,666
81,201
126,377
222,065
530,377
545,186
931,217
1,138,358
11,400,244


134.3
103.9
153.6
183.1
169.9
162.5
195.9
127,2
162.2
135.1
168.6
202.2
222.6
176.4
177.1
175.7


Acres


1,256,820
1,511,5331
1,549,517
1,911,877
1,542,233
1,422,014
1,376,102
1,393,335
1,725,613
1,694,001
1,"99,936
1,702,571
2,850,647
3,980,588
5,053,758
5,220,319


478 lbs.

459,488
484 274
552 ,469
739,533
5eo.0734
193,415
463,939
430 O":i
571,058
483,347
555 ,259
480,709
1,013,655
1,328,345
1,757,246
1,824,099
2,191,225


Lb.


174.7
153.2
170.4
194.9
173.8
165.9
161.2
117.5
158.2
136.4
132.7
135.0
170.0
159.5
166.2
167.0


Departamiento Nacional da


ept as


Lb.


189.3
173.6
177.6
185.5
174.8
166.4
155.9
150.4
157.8
136.6
124.9
105.0
134.9
149.6
155.5
154.4


,in de Informaooes #7 Ministerio da Agricultura,
de Plantas Texteis, Rio de Janeiro, June 1938..




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