The Cotton situation


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The Cotton situation
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United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Economic Research Service, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture. ( Washington, D.C. )
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Bureau of Agricultural Economics

CS-9 July 20, 1937


Spot cotton prices in the United. States averaged 12.50 cents in June

compared with 13.12 in May and 11.96 in June 1936. Prices strengthened in

the second week of July but declined materially after the middle of the month,

the Bureau of Agricultural Economics reports. The downward trends in unfilled

orders and mill activity in the domestic textile industry have tended to de-

press prices.

Consumption of all cotton continued at a very high level throughout

most of the important cotton consuming countries of the world during June.

Extremely large exports of cotton from India, Egypt, and Brazil so far this

season have accompanied the record large ccnsw-nption of these and other

foreign cottons by mills in foreign countries. While world mill activity

and cotton consumption are not expected to show any substantial decrease in

the near future, the continued lagging of new orders for cotton goods behind

mill production in several important countries makes the longer-time outlook

somewhat uncertain.

The domestic cotton textile industry consumed slightly less cotton in

June than in the abnormally high month of Jurne 1933, but with that exception

consumption was the largest for any June on record. Mill activity tended to

decline gradually during June and July-. Mill sales of goods took a temporary

spurt in the first part of July, but by the middle of the month were once more

running behind mill output.

Indications at the present time point to the probability of a larger

acreage and perhaps production of cotton in 1937-38 than in 1936-37 in several

* -2-

important cotton growing countries. The Crop Reporting Board reported an

acreage of cotton in cultivation in the United States on July 1 of 34,192,000

acres. This represents an increase of 10.4 percent over the area in culti-

vation on the corresponding date last season. The official estimate of the

Eg,.rptian government places the cotton area for the 1937-38 crop at 2,053,000

acres, an increase of 15 percent over the previous season. Yields per acre in
1936-37, however, were the highest since 1899-1900 and much higher than average.

The first preliminary estimate of the new crop in China (including Manchuria)

is for a production of about 4,200,000 bales of 478 pounds on an acreage be-

tween 10 and 15 percent greater than in 1936-37.


Spot cotton prices at the 10 markets were lower in June than in May but
higher than a year earlier. The average for June was 12.50 cents compared with
13.12 in May. The high was 13.02 cents on June 2 and June 5 and the low 12.15
on June 14. In June 1936 the 10-market average was 11.96 cents. Factors tend-
ing to depress prices during June included the downward trends in unfilled
orders and mill activity in the domestic textile industry. Since July 15 prices
have declined materially and on July 26 was lower than for any day since
March 1936.

Prices of Indian and Egyptian cottons at Liverpool, expressed as a per-
centage of American, continued in June, as in May, to be higher than in earlier
months. The ratio of three types of Indian to two types of American, a ratio of
83.8, was the highest relative price for Indian since December 1935. Thie ratio
of Egyptian Uppers to American Middling declined to 130.6 compared with 132.3 in
May, but with that exception the price of Uppers was higher relative to American
than in any month since February 1933. The ratios of Brazilian and Peruvian
cotton to American have been substantially unchanged for several months.


Domestic exports of cotton from the United States to all countries in June
amounted to 230,000 bales compared with 297,500 in June 1936, a decrease of 23
percent. Shipments were smaller to all important foreign countries except Italy
and Germany. Exports in the 11 months ended. June totaled 5,316,000 bales com-
pared with 5,816,000 a year ago, a decline of 9 percent.

Exports of cotton from India in May were 347,600 bales compared with
333,700 in May 1936 and an average for May during the 10 years ended 1932-33 of
247,300 bales. Shipments from India have been unusually large in most monthss dur-
ing the current season. In the 10 months ended May, exports of 3,046,800 bales
were 18 percent larger than in the corresponding period a year ago, 31 percent
above the 10-year average, and higher than in any corresponding period on record.


Exports from Egypt in June were 86,600 bales compared with 99,900 in the
corresponding month last season and a May average of 89,800 in the 10 years ended
1932-33. In the 11 months ended June, shipments totaled 1,766,200 bales compared
with 1,603,100 in the corresponding period a year earlier. The total for the first
11 months this season was the highest for the corresponding 11 months in any year,
with the exception of 1933-34 when the volume was only slightly larger than this

Exports of cotton from Brazil were heavy in April, the most recent month
for which export data are available.' Shipments were only slightly above those of
April 1936, but werc much larger than in any other April. Cumulative exports in
the 9 months ended April were 662,600 bales compared with 419,200, 567,600, and
144,800 bales in the corresponding months in 1935-36, 1934-35, and 1933-34,
respectively. '

Domestic Mill Activity Declined Moderately in Juxie Sales of Goods Below
Output in June, but Temporarily Above Output in Early July

Consumption of cotton by mills in the United States amounted, to 681,400 bales
in June.With one exception, this is the largest consumption for any June on record.
The slightly larger utilization of 697,300 bales in June 1933 was a part of the
short-lived spurt in mill activity and cotton consumption which occurred in the
spring and surn-er that year, and was associated with the devaluation of the dollar,
the enactment of other recovery legislation, and the impending imposition of the
processing tax.

Trade reports state that mill sales of both finished and unfinished goods
continued to run behind mill output in June. lill i-argins declined as compared
with May and other recent months, although margins were wider than in a1yr Jane
since 1926 when data on margins became available.' Consumption in the 11 months
ended June amounted to 7,362,000 bales, an increase of 28 percent over consumption
in the same 11 months last season. This is a record high utilization for this perio

Mill sales of goods improved during the first 2 weeks of July, according to
the New York Cotton Exchange Service. This was the first definite improvement since
orders began lagging behind mill output in the middle of March. Sales of unfinished
goods are reported to have been well in excess of current output. Sales of finished
goods 7ere not so large but were.approximately equal to production. This increase
in the activity of the cotton goods market was due mainly to buying by distributors
and important industrial consumers who had permitted their stocks to become depleted
during the last 3 or 4 months. The spurt in new orders, however, was very short-
lived. The weakness in raw cotton prices since the middle of the month has been
accompanied by a slackness in new business in cotton goods and sales of both fin-
ished and unfinished goods have been below mill output.

European Mill Activity Continues High New Orders Continue to Lag
Behind Mill Output Outlook Less Favorable ,/

The European cotton textile situation was characterized by a high level of
mill activity and cotton consumption during June, but some elements of hesitancy
and weakness were present during the month. The principal reasons for the latter
condition are to be found in the reluctance of manufacturers and distributors to
l/ Prepared largely from a report from Agricultural Attache Lloyd V. Stecre at
berlin, under date of July 8.


.- 3 -

- 4-

make forward. commitments in the face of the general unsettled world situation,
the economic difficulties in France, and some weakness in raw cotton prices. So
far there has been no significant reduction iin mill activity but some reduction
appears to have occurred as a result of shorter working hours in some French mills.
However, if sales of spinners and weavers continue to fall below the current level
of mill output, as has been the case during the last 3 or 4 months, some curtail-
ment of mill operations will be inevitable. For the. next several months activity
of the Europcan cotton mills probably will not be significantly curtailed because
of the large volume of unfilled orders still held by mills in most countries.
Some seasonal increase in activity and cotton consumption may take placo in the
fall. For a longer period ahead, however, the outlook has become more uncertain
and, therefore,, less favorable.

United Kingdom.- Although little improvement was evident in England in the
demand for yarn and cloth during June;' a substantial volume of unfilled orders
booked earlier in the year operated to sustain mill occupation at a high level
throughout the month. Exports of yarn and piece goods compared fairly well with
exports in the corresponding month in recent years. Cloth exports were the a1-rgest
for any June since 1932. Retail soles were large in the hor.e market and manufac-
turers showed little, if any, disposition to make price concessions in order to
obtain new orders.

Ge ...erman.- There is apparently a growing -scarcity of raw material supplies
for the German cotton textile industry. A recent ordinance of the'Textile Super-
visory Office hlias made it compulsory to obtain buying permits for the purchase of
all yanms, twists of cotton, and m.ixed cotton material. Furthermore, specific
manufacturing quotas have been established for firms using cotton -id mixed cotton
yarns. It is perhaps worthwhile to mention one or two of the regulations in
order that an idea may be obtained of h-iow far Goverm.ient regulation of the textile
industry has proceeded in Germany. Now,- it is required that the removal of cotton
yarns from the spinning to the weaving section in the enterprise be treated
as a p'lrcnase and, therefore, subject to special-regulation by the Supervisory
Office. Every buyer of cotton or mixed cotton yarns mast apply prior to the
makinC of a purchase for a permit to. p"chase cotton yarn, and only after the re-
ceipt of a preliminary pen-nit may he cover his requirements. Within two weeks
after the transaction, ho must submit to the Supervisory Office the purchase con-
*tracts anid other iocur..ents, together with application for the final permit, and
only :,hen -the final permit has been 'granted'may the trarssction be considered as
closed. -Other regulations which have been issued recently include a restriction
on the utilization of staple fiber wastes which hereafter may be used as a raw
material only to the extent of the average quarterly-utilization in 1936.

Recent reports indicate that activity in the German textile industry re-
mained comparatively high during June. The demand for yarn and manufactures has
been strcn,-, but this demand could only be satisfied within the limitations im-
posed by the limited supply of raw: materials and the newly imposed' restrictions.

Imports of American cotton into Germany so far this season show a decrease
both absolutely and as a percentage of the total as compared with last year. In-
ports of all cottons have decreased compared with last season, but the drop in
takin.-s of American has been particularly sharp.


cs-9 5 -

France.- The rather unsettled conditions which prevailed in the French
cotton industry in May continued in Juno. Som.-e pick up in business in yarns
and fabrics has been reported for June, ho-ever, and mill activity has been
only moderately restricted. The outlook for the textile industry in France
depends largely upon the solution of the present econlrmic difficulties facing
the country and the coarse of general business in the future. bther things
being equal, th:. cxocrt trade in cotton textiles should "be helped by the re-
cent depreciation of the franc.

Italy.- The Italian. cotton textile industry sho-'ed increased activity
in June. This is a co:-tinuation of the extraordinary recovery which has
featured the inLustry durir.., the present season. Spinning and weaving mills
had attained by April the highest rate of activity in recent years, and cotton
consumption and trade in manufactures expanded to still hi.hier levels in May
and June. Larger q.:antities of raw material -ere available in June, both for
the manufacture of goods for export a:-d for the domestic markett.- Undoubtedly .,y
the more abundant supply of raw cotton has stimulated mill operation in the
last few months. Imports of raw cotton from January to Ma-f 1937 were three
times as large as imports in. the corresponding 5 months in 1936. From January
to May 1937 exports of yarn -ere nearly five times as large as in the corres-
ponding period- a yenr carli-r, and exports of cottor- fabrics three times as
large. The .Fneral ou.,loo)k for It'.lian dem rnd for raw7 cotton can be regarded
as nuite favorable, esp-cially since it is so closely linked with the improve-
ment i. exports of cotton textiles. A large part of Italian exports of cotton
goods go to the Balkans, to the Irear, P.-d to South America, where inmprov-
ing economic conditions are reported.

Czechoslovakia.- Fav-,rable progress in general economic conditions con-
tinue to be reflected 1-i a ir-proveme-it in the cotton textile industry. Home
buying as well as export sales lately have been on a satisfactory level. It is
believed, ho-ever, that the ir.crcapin, volume of e:ports of cotton marutactures
from Italy may soon displace considerable ql.mntities of Czechoslovakian tex-
tiles in foreign markets. It is also thought likely that Gernandy will impose
new regulations on the trade in textiles which will interfere -Tith Czechoslovakian
exports to that country.

Au2stria.- Operations in th. Austrian .textile, mills, continued at a fairly
satisfactory level curing June. The export trade in cotton yarn has improved as
the result of an active dena:'d from Rumania and of government policies on the
promotion of cotton yarn exports.

High Level of Mill Activity and Cotton Consumre.t ion Continues to
Characterie Japanese and Chinese Industries 2/

Japan.- Yarn production in Japan during June amounted to 341,l460 bales
of 400 pounds each. This is the largest yarn output in any month on record,
and it is the seventh consecutive month in -which yarn production has been higher
than in any correspondin.- month in the nast. It is not expected that yarn pro-
duction and mill activity will continue at this extremely hi-h level beyond early
fall. Forward sales of yarn have begun to decline. Production costs also are
reported to be slo-ly rising du'.-. to increased prices for raw cotton and to some

2/ Prepared largely from information furnished by Agricultural Commissioner
Dawson at Shanghai in cables dated Jul-r 13, 14 and 21.


extent to incr-asirg labor costs. Rising prices for cottonr in Japan are due
mainly to weakness in the yen and to the feeling of the that the present
system of import permits probably will be used to impoe a considerable amount
of restriction on imports of raw cotton. A further disquieting influence is
the fact that exports of cotton cloth have ceased their up-rard trend and in the
last year and a half have been about the same as or somewhat smaller than in
the corresponding months of the peak year 1934-35.

Domestic consumption of cotton ooais has been increasing, b.ut the over-
whelming importance of cotton textile imports in the Japanese balance of inter-
national payments makes any check to cotton textile exports a serious threat to
the value of the yen and to Japan's ability to purchase in world markets the
increased volume of raw materials required by her growing population and increas-
ing industrialization. It is ru-rored that the Government may inaugurate a system
of export subsidies for cotton goods, the cost of the subsidy to be met by the
increase of prices in the domestic market.

At the present time the Government is exercising considerable control
over the raw cotton market through the issuance of import rermiLo. Speculative
activities have been greatly redu-ced because tha Government has refused to issue
permits to importers for more than the equivalent of 2 months' quotas at. one
time. Since mills must buy at least 2 months ahead, merchants are forced to buy
regularly at prevailing world prices in order to kee.. the supply of cotton steady
and adequate.

The regulation of cotton imports has not resulted ir. any actual scarcity
of raw material up to the present time. In fact, stocks of all cotton in port
warehouses in Japan on June 30 amounted to 79S,000 bales, or 36 percent more
than stocks on the corresponding date a year earlier. Most c.f this increase in
stocks as compared -pith last year was accounted for by stocks of American cotton
which totaled 34[6,000 bales or nearly twice the number on June 30, 193b. Other
things being the same, these comparatively large stocks of American cotton should
tend to reduce imports of American during the next few mont.hs. This increase in
the holdings of American cotton has resulted from heavy imports of American rela-
tive to mill consumption. Imports of 1,432,000 bales of American from September
to June were slightly larger than in the corresponding periodd last year, but
mill cot.s u.iption of American cotton has been running at a lower rate than last
season. It* is estimated that corsumptlion of American cotton in thre season as a
whole will be about 15 percent less than in 1935-3r, 7hile consumption of all
growths will probably be about 7 percent larger. Imports of all cotton in the
period September to June totaled 3,857,000 bales, or 20 percent more than the
same period a year earlier. Indian, Egyptian, Chinese, Brazilian, and miscel-
laneous growths all shared in the increase.

China.- Arrivals of Chinese cotton at Shanghai continued to be very
heavy during June. Consumption of cotton by spinning mills remained high during
the month, and mills are reported to have a large volume of ..infilld orders for
yarn. Mill stocks of raw cotton at Shanghai at the end of t-hec month 7ere esti-
mated to be equal to 2 to 3 months' consumption. Imports of foreign growths of
cotton were negligible in volume, and with adequate stocks and continued heavy
arrivals of Chinese cotton it is likely that imports during the coming months
will continue to be small.

- 6--


The accompanying table presents the latest revised figures on the
supply and distribution of Chinese cotton. The data include Manchuria.
Production andi consumption of cotton in Manchuria, ho-rever, are relatively
small; this -.,as especially true in the earlier years covered by the table.
Much of the dataare estimated on the basis qf incomplete information and
more or. less arbitrary assumptions. The data are the best that are avail-
able at the present time, however, and they are probably substantially
correct. The sharn increase in the estimated total disappearance in the
past 5 or 6 years has coincided with the marked expansion in production.
The increased total disappearance has resulted from a larger mill consump-
tion, since home consumption has been about the same or smaller, and exports
have been materially smaller in recent years than in most seasons during
the 1920's. If mill consumption of all kinds of cotton -ere sh6-wn, it would
be seen that its increase has been much less r'.pid than the increase in the
mill consumption of Chinese cotton. Thia hi-.- been the result of the sharp
decrease in imports of cotton into China since 1931-32; imported cotton has
been ronlaced in mill consumption by Chinese cotton.

Acroage in United States on July 1 10.4 Percent Above Last Year.
Incr-ased Production Ex pected in 1937-3S in E_ t and China.

United States.- The Crop Reporting Board reported an acreage of cotton
in cultivation in the United States on July 1 of 3h,192,000 acres. This is
an increase of 10.4 percent over the 30,960,000 acres in cultivation on July
1, 1936, but is 17.5 percent less than the average for the 10 years ended
1932-33. Th6 largest increases in acreage compared with last year occurred in
the far ?west ('S7 percent in California) and in the eastern part of the Cotton
Belt (16 percent in South Carolina, 15 percent in Georgia, 13 percent in
Tennessee, 12 percent in ,i.sissippi, and 10 percent in Alabama). The smallest
increases -7ere in Texas and Oklahoma which sho-'cd gains of 7 and 3 percent,
respectively. Under average conditions, this distribution of the increased
acreage should make for a higher average yield per acre than would be the case
if the increase in acrage had been ,ve,.ly distributed over the Belt. This
is true because of the higher yields per acre in the old cotton growing States
in th. Ec!lt rr-d i thd irrir.t-d Sta.tes of the-far west than in other states.

Provided the 10-yzar average abandonment of 2.3 pErcent occurs and as-
suming a yield per acre qcoual to the highest in the past 10 years, the crop
would amount to nearly 15,000,000 bales. With a yield equal to the lo-wvest
in the Tast 10 years, the crop would amount to about 11,000,000 bales, and
with 1932 to 1936 average yields to about 13,000,000 bales. Reports from
trade sources indicate that -reather conditions continue to be favorable to the
development of the crop.

Fertilizer tag sales in 8 cotton States as reported by the National
Fertilizer Association indicate that much more fertilizer is being used in the
South this season than for several years past. Tag sales from December to the
end of June totaled 3,994,000 tons compared 7rith 3,109,000 tons in the corre-
sponding period last season. These are the heaviest sales of fertilizer since
1929-30 when tag sales from December to the end of June totaled 4,365,000 tons.
Tag sales per acre in the S States are higher so far this /,rear than for several
seasons past. Since 1920-21 the heaviest sales of fertilizer in the correspond-
ing 7-months period -"ere 4,380,000 tone in 1927-28, and the lightest sales oc-
curred in 1931-32 when they amounted to 1,801,000 tons.


- 8-

Chinese Cotto:,: Estimated production, disaopearance and
stacks in China i/, 1920-21 to date

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
: Disamiearznce :Apparent :;.Jstimated
Season :Estimated: -"area c :change in:stocks on
beginning: produc- : ill : :cstimatcd :Estimrted : stocks : hand at
August 1: tionr. : :to Exprtc:hope con- :total dis-:(col. 2 : end of
2/ : 0 -on : :isur-ption 2-/:appearanco:pinus 6) : season
1,00C 1,C'00 1,C00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bales. cof b-loS of br.les of bales of bales of balos of bales of
:478 l1s. 473 !js. 473 lbs. 473 Ibs. 478 Ibs. 473 lbs. 470 Ibs.

1920-21 : 2,4C3 349 130 1,151 2,130 276 729
1921-22 : 2,1l7 1 025 195 1,043 2 266 69 660
1922-23 : 2,510 1,179 249 941 2,369 141 801
1923-24 : 2,403 1,223 232 941 2, 44 40 761
1924.1-25" 2,51r0 1,2E5 271 241 2,467 43 304
1925-26 : 2,453 1,03 23? 31 2,324 134 938
1923-27 : 2,301 1,224. 306 89 2,419 119 820
1927-28 2,824 1,43S 3G3 839 2,745 79 899
1923-29 : 2,720 1,331 292 889 2,542 173 1,077
1 9 2 j -9- 3 2 7= 21 2_ 7 9 6
1929-30 : 2,45 1,59 ,51 339 2,739 231 796
1930-31 : 2,61. 1,463 227 389 2,579 36 832
1931-32 : 2,C02 1,32029 207 837 ?,073 19 851
1932-33 : 2,72 !J 1,730 210 31 2 029 109 742
e99" 606
1933-34 : 2,981 10, -P. 160 .39 2,917 ,06
193-35 3,243 79 8'9 3031 162 968
1935-35 : 2,667 2 ,003 178 C37 3,013 ,- 351 617
1933-37 : 3,870 2, 427 ./ 262 37 3,526 344 961
1937-38 : 4,2CC
rronr dt.ta. furnished by A-.ricultur.l Com.issioner, 0. L. Dav'son, at Shnj-ai.
Ssti7.iates of mill conscription based on CMhiese Cotton 1,illowncrs' Associa.tion
data adjusted to Au&a:-,t 1 basis.
Data on cx.':-rts based on Chincse Custons fiL.ires for calenriar yenrs adjusted to
an Augst to July year except from 1932-33 to date which. are based -n official
monthly data.
I/ Including I r.e'huria.
2/ 0ririn:1 estir:nites in bales of 500 pounds net rounded to nearest fifty thousand.
3/ Preliminary.

I'yrt.- The first official estimate of the E-yptian cver.icnt places thi
area under cultivation in gy/pt for the 1937-38 crop at 2,053,000 acres, an
increase of 15 percent over the area of 1,7?1,000 acres in this last season.
This is the second lar-est O.creaje ever plantcd to cotton in E Tjpt. Thc 1336-37
crop was a record high of 1,887,000 bales, due to the unusually high yield of
506 -oounds per acre. This was the highest yield in any year since 1C.99-1900.
If the yield -oper acre in this coming season should be Is lar.:c as in 193-3-37, thi
new crop would amount to 2,170,COO bales of 473 pounds. If yields should be
413 pounds per Pre (the lor'est in the last 5 years), the crop would amount to
1,707,000 bales. If ou-atturn per .cre should be 4.159 -ounds (the average for the
5 years ended 1936-37), production would be 1,970,000 bfles.




- 9 -

China.- The first estinrte of the 1937-38 cotton crop in China
including 1,-.nchuria), as reported. by Agricultural Commissioner Dfawson, at
Shanghai, is 4,000,000 b.les of 00 pounds net weight, or approximately
4,200,000 bales of 473 wounls net. lThl- estimate of production is based upon
an esti.iate of acreage from 10 to 15 percent greater than in 1933-37 and a
slightly higher -ield per acre than in 1936-37. The weather so far this season
has been favorable to the planting of a lnr~e acreage and to a satisfactory
developr-ient of the crop. This forecast of Chinese production is admittedly
very tent-tive, but it seems likely that 1937-.7D production will establish a
new high record unless weather conditions should be vcry unfavorable throughout
the rcmainder of the season. (See foregoing table.)

Rissia.- Hot, dry weather prevailed in the main cotton regions of
Russia duirin-. June, conditions which can be regarded as favorable to the dovel-
opment of the new crop. Warn weather with sufficient rainfall is reported from
the "new cotton regio-ns" (southern European Russia where cotton is grow-n with-
out the aid of irrigation.) It is believed that timely and thorough cultivation
ani irrigation are particularly important this year in the Russian cotton area.
The first cultivation of cotton was practically completed by June 10 with
4,759,000 acres worked by th.t date, anl the second cultivation was nearinJ
com01pletion by June 25 in the irrigated regions. Approximately the same area
was worked for the first and second cultivation this year as in 1935. However,
a laT is reported with respect to the third cultivation, with little more than
half of the v-hole area cultivated for the third time by June 25, whereas the
plan provided for the corplotion of the third cultivation by the first of July.
It is believed that irrigation has not been entirely adequate and satisfactory.

Ari-entina.- The third estimate of 1936-37 in Argentina places the
cotton crop of that country at only 192,000 bales.' The expectation of such a
relatively sr.all crop is due to a very low ,rield per acre as a result of
extre.ecll unfavorable weather and heavy insect danmae. On the basis of present
indications as to acreage and production, the yield per acre will amount to
only 123.5 -ocLunds. In the 5 years ended 1935-36 yields averaged more than 200
pounds to the ccre. Acrea,.-;c -olanted in Arr-entina in 1936-37 was at an all-time
hi,:h of over one r.lillion acres. However, abandonment reduced the area to an
esti.iate.: 713,000 acres. In 1935-36 the cotton area aPmounted to 763,000 acres
and in the 5 years 1932-33 to 303,000-acres. Production totaled 373,000 bales
in 1935-33, 2?5,000 in 1934-35, and 145,000 bales on the average, from 1920-29
to 1932-3.. The very small production expected this season in Argentina repre-
sents a r.,ajor, though possibly temporary, setback to what appeared to be a
swiftly rising trend in cotton production.


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