The Cotton situation

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Material Information

Title:
The Cotton situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
Economic Research Service, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture.
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
five no. a year
bimonthly[ former may 1961-]
irregular[ former 1945/46-mar. 1961]
monthly[ former 1936-1944]
quarterly
completely irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Cotton trade -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
CS-1 (Nov. 1936) -
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Nov. 1936-Apr. 1975.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Ceased publication in Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 1936-Oct. 1953; by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961; by: Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May 1961-Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issues for 1936-Oct. 1953 published by the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics; Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; May 1961-Apr. 1975 by the Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 020142316
oclc - 01768374
lccn - 63045282
Classification:
lcc - HD9070.1 .C78
System ID:
AA00013000:00029

Related Items

Preceded by:
World cotton prospects
Preceded by:
World cotton prospects
Succeeded by:
Cotton and wool situation
Succeeded by:
Wool situation
Succeeded by:
Wool situation
Succeeded by:
Cotton and wool situation
Related Items:
Statistics on cotton and related data


This item is only available as the following downloads:


Full Text
THE 3

THE


-- SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

JULY 1940
--------- --------------


i .%L LIB
MUI7E 3S EP'




U.S. DEPOSITORY


COTTON. AMERICAN: EXPORTS TO AND MILL CONSUMPTION
IN SPECIFIED AREAS. 1927-39
BAL.S -- r ..,.L
GI ILLImIi AL EURO L I uk
GREAT BRITAIN i CONTINENTAL EUROPE


IL MISMM m ial.i.uA


OIL i sll ns W a m


THEME HAS BEEN A MARKED DECLINE IN EXPORTS TO AND COTTON CON-
BUMPTION IN CONTINENTAL EUROPE DURING RECENT YEARN, THE RESULT BOTH
OF INCREASED USE OF FOREIGN GROWTHS AND OF INCREASED PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION OF SYNTHETIC FIBERS. NEVERTHELESS, CONTINENTAL EUROPE
CONTINUED TO BE THE PRINCIPAL EXPORT MARKET FOR AMERICAN COTTON UP
UNTIL THE LAST FEW WEEKS. AT THE PRESENT TIME MOST OF TnIS AREA IS
NO LONER ACCESSIBLE TO AMERICAN EXPORTERS.
EXPORTS or AMERICAN COTTON TO GREAT BRITAIN WERE LARGER DURING
TNC CURRENT SEASON THAN FOR 13 YEARS. SMALL STOCKS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE SEASON AND INCREASED PRODUCTION OF GOOSE FOR MILITARY AND CIVIL
ODEFEP1 PURPOSES WERE THE REASON.


- .-


CS-45





-2-


THE COTTON SITUATION


Summary

The improvement in the domestic cotton textile situation during re-

cent weeks is in strong contrast to unfavorable developments abroad. Mill

activity has increased considerably in the United States, but it has re-

cently declined in Great Britain, Japan, and China, three of the largest

markets now open to exporters of American and competing cottons.

The seasonally adjusted index of domestic cotton consumption in-

creased somewhat in June. Weekly trade data indicate that a substantial

further increase occurred during the first half of July. Although manu-

facturers' sales of cotton goods have been somewhat restricted, cloth prices

have remained firm, apparently bolstered by trade opinion that sales have

not yet reflected the improvement which has occurred during recent weeks in

domestic industrial production, employment, and payrolls. Most observers

believe the outlook for cotton consumption to be very favorable. This is

due to the armament program and expected accompanying high level of general

business activity, together with a continuation of the cotton products ex-

port-aid program, a prospective expansion of the cotton stamp plan, and other,

measures to encourage mill consumption.

Although British mill consumption has continued exceptionally high,

cotton mill activity and retail sales have declined considerably in recent

weeks. Manufacturers not engaged in Government work are said to have been

steadily losing ground, and additional curtailment is expected unless there i

an early improvement in demand. Export demand is believed to be especially I

In Japan a further sharp decline in cloth exports was reported for

June, accompanied by an 8-percent decline in cotton mill consumption. Despite


cs-45






CS-45 3-

an agreement to restrict September production of goods for export to 20

percent below that for July, even this restricted amount is said to be far

too large unless cloth exports improve.

In China mill activity was reduced considerably during June, and

Japanese mills in Shanghai were scheduled to curtail activity at least 30

percent beginning July 1.

The unfavorable developments in foreign countries no doubt have con-

tributed to the approximately 1/2-cont decline in domestic cotton prices

during the past 5 weeks. Despite this decline, prices in late July were

still approximately 9/10 cent above the low point of May and about 3/5 cent

higher than a year earlier. Unfavorable weather conditions in late Juno and

early July were reported in a substantial part of the American Cotton Bolt.

This also may have boon a factor contributing to the price rise during that

period. More recently werither conditions apparently have been more favorable,

It now seems likely that domestic mill consumption for the year ended

July 31, 1940 will approximate 7,750,000 bales, including about 130,000 bales

of foreign cotton. Exports of American cotton should total a little less than

6,200,000 bales. This, together with domestic mill consumption, indicates a

total domestic distribution of American cotton for 1940-41 of just under

13,800,000 bales. This is nearly 3,800,000 bales more than distribution in

1938-39 and is expected to reduce the domestic carry-over of American cotton

nearly 2-1/4 million bales below the record carry-ovcr on August 1, 1939 of

nearly 13 million bales. A considerable part of the decrease in the domestic

carry-over will be offset by larger stocks in foreign countries. Scarcity of

information relative to foreign mill consumption, however, makos it difficult

to determine the amount of cotton on hand in firoign countries at the present





ps-45 4 -
PRICES
Domestic spots decline slightly,
most futures about unchanged

Following the advance of 1-1/3 cents in domestic spot prices from
the third week of May to the third week of June there was a slow but steady
decline for the next 5 weeks. The average price of Middling 15/16 on July
27 of 10-1/4 cents was 1/2 cent below the high reached on June 19. It was,
however, approximately 9/10 cent above the low point of May. With the ex-
ception of May, it was lower than the average for any month since last
November. In July last year the average was 9.65. r

Uncertainties as to future developments, and the question of the ex-
tent to which these factors may have been discounted, make it particularly
difficult to determine the exact causes for the price fluctuations of recent
weeks. For example, the spread of the war and extension of the blockade to
the Mediterranean area should have tended to depress domestic prices, but
for some time immediately prior to Italy's entry into the war this expected
development probably was discounted in cotton prices. More recently there
has been uncertainty as to the course of the war in the near future and its
effect on Britain and continental Europe's demand for raw cotton.

Despite these uncertainties, cotton prices in recent weeks have un-
doubtedly anticipated an unusually low foreign demand for American cotton
during the months immediately ahead. In the first place most of the im-
portant cotton import markets are now blockaded. Furthermore, mill activity
in three of the largest markets now available Great Britain, Japan, and
China has recently declined considerably and further x.eclines are expected.
The unfavorable export situation, however, has been offset to at least a
large extent by several factors. One of these is the relatively short supply
of American cotton not owned or financed by the Government. Another factor
is the present relatively high domestic consumption c.nd the possibility of
sustained or oven increased consumption as the Government's armament program
is accelerated, and employment, payrolls, and industrial demand conditions
further improve. The favorable outlook for domestic consumption is also
aided by a continuation of the Cotton Products Export Subsidy Program, the
continuation and expansion of the Stamp Plan, as 'vell as other Government
measures designed to increase domestic consumption. An additional price-
strengthening factor is the expectation in trade channels that a loan on the
new crop will soon be announced. In late June and early July weather con-
ditions also appeared to have been somewhat unfavorable for the development
of the domestic crop, and this, too, helped to offset the price-depressing
effects of the unfavorable export situation. More recently, however, weather
conditions have improved.

Prices of nost domestic futures quotations showed little not change
from the third week of June to the fourth week of July. This, along with
the decline in spot prices, reduced the spread of spots over futures about
2/5 to 1/2 cent, compared with the third week of June. Nevertheless, spot
prices continue high relative to futures quotations, with New York futures
on July 26 ranging from about 4/5 to 1-2/5 cents below the average of
Middling 15/16 in the ten spot markets.











i Low : Ac-
: Md tual
*


. Ct. Ct.


Ac-
tual


Ct.
*re


: 14,50
S14.62
: 10.31
: 10.15


Ju ....: 11.04
July ....: 10.61
1939-40 :
Aug. ....: 10.16
Se pt.. 11.21
Oct. ....: 10.65
Fov .....: 11.66
Dec. ,...: 14.14
Jan. ....: 14,81
Feb. ....: 13.74
ar.....: 1306
Apr. *....: 13.47
y.....: 12.95
Jun ,..: 12.61

Ju 7 ...: 12.44
14 ...: 12.16
21 ...: 13.11
28 ...: 12.75
July 5 ...: 13.11


13.60

8.78
8.71


9.38
8.95

8.53
9,79
9.41
10.79
13.32
14.12
13.11
12.53
12.88
12,36
12.02

11.86
11.57
12.53
12.16
12.44


11,19

7.96
7.14


7.61
7.31

7.38
8.56
8.41
9.46
11,69
12.31
11,09
10.68
10,70
10.23
9.37

9.84
9.01
9.51
9.12


78.0

77,1
70.4


68.9
68.9

72.6
76.4
79.0
81.1
82.7
83.1
80.7
81.8
79.4
79.0
74.3

79,1
74.1
72.5


17.12 117.9
17.40. 119.0


13.10
11.80


11.47
11.43

11.35
12.49
12.03
12.70
15.80
17.50
17.14
17.17
17,64
17.44
18.26

17.01
16.99
19.62


126.7
116.5


103.9
107.7

111.7
111.4
113.0
108.9
111.7
118.2
124.7
131.5
131.0
134.7
144.8

136.7
139.7
149.7


14.08

10.18
9.63


10.18
9.85


9.37
10.71
10.45
11.59
14.14
14.87
13.94
13.23
13.47
12.95
12.43

12.44
11.99
12.86


97.7

98.7
94.9


92.2
92.8


92.2
95.5
98.1
99.4
100.0
100.4
101.5
101.3
100.0
100.0
98.6

100.0
98.6
98.1


14.74

12,70
10.89


9.45
9.37


3/


3/
17.23

13.86
13.60
13.52
12.82
12.87


3/
1 .29

10.06
9.39
8.88
7.67
6.89


8.95
9.02
8.92
9.40
85.3 10.64
10.79
72.6 10.67
69.0 10,43
65.7 10.54
59.8 10.05
53.5 10.54


10.22


I


1.59
1.24

1.21
2.19
1.73
2.26
3.50
4.A2
3.07
2,63
2.93


Y/








Cotton: Spot price per pound, specified growths at Liverpool, Osaka and
New Orleans, specified periods -0onrtinued

ices at Liverpool are compiled from reports of the Liverpool Cotton Association except for recent weeks which are
fro ables and reports of the New York Cottoni Exchange. Prices were reported in cents per pound and converted to
cet per pound at current official rates of exchange. Prices at Osaka are from "The Ten-Days Return of Cotton",
ka, and cables to the Bureau of Agricultural Bconomics. They were reported in yen per picul and converted to
s per pound using monthly exchange rates as reported by the Federal Reserve Board. Prices at New Orleans are
Reports of the New Orleans Cotton Association.

, Average of inganghat,-Yeotmal and Akora, referred to as Acola or the Acola group.
Average for 10 months. Ten-months average for New Orleans 8.60.
3 Not available.














'; '" "I* ."** "
I I s -





* cvJ~


Season
month
or day

10 yr. av.
1927-28
to 1936-37

1936-37
1937-38
1938-39
June
July
1939-40
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
June (7
14
21
28
.July 5
12
19
26


:OM a F 0-9- .New Orle -
iIndianlBraziliansAmerican:Spread over:Spread over
: Oomras type middlings Oomra at i Brazilian
a fine a 5 I 15/16" a Bombay sat Sao Paul8o
I Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
!


io.o6

10.08
10.OS
7.27
6.57
7.17
6.81

6.76
7.33
7.46
8.61
10.50
10.46
9.16
8.78
8.82
7.69
5.84
5.72
5.84
5.89
5.53
5.39
6.37
6.32
6.88


14.11

12.95
9.26
8.40
8.78
8.16

7.72
8.69
8.73
-9176
11.91
11.35
10.70
9.69
8.87
7.58
6.69
6.22
6.70
7.39
6.70
6.97
6.98
6.66


12.99

13.45
9.24
9.04
9.75
9.67

9.18
9.22
9.12
9.60
10.84
10.98
10.87
10.63
10,74
10.25
10.74
10.42
11.05
10.94
10.80
10.75
10.70
10.50
10.30


2.93

3.37

2.58
2.86

2.42
1.89

.99
.34
.52
1.71
1.85
1.92
S2.56
4.94
4.70
5.21
5.05
5.27
5.36
4.33
4.18
3 42


-1.12

0.50
0.02
0.64
0.97
1.51


1.46
0.53
0.39
0.16
1.07
0.37
0.17
0.94
1.87
2.67
4.05
4.20
4.35
3.55
4.10
3.78
3.72
3.84


Minus sign indicates Indian or Brazilian over American. Prices at Bombay
are from Bombay Cotton Annual and Financial News through March 1940.
*April 1940 to date from New York Cotton Exchange reports. They were
converted from rupees per candy of 784 pounds at current rates of exchange
(buying rates in recent weeks) as reported by the Federal Reserve Board.
Through August 1932 monthly data are averages of daily prices; from
September 1932 to date average of Wednesday or Thursday quotations.
Prices at Sao Paulo are from official Brazilian publications and material
from the American Consular Service at Sao Paulo. Monthly averages are as
quoted through December 1934. From January 1935 to date they are aver-
ages of buyers' and sellers quotations. Prices were converted from
milrois per 15 kilograms at current rates of exchange until September
1934, October 1931 to Feb. 10, 1935 at open or free market rates, and
from February 11 to date at composite averages of official and free
market rates; except from Nov. 16, 1937 through Apr. 10, 1939 when free
market rates were used.
/ Prices of Indian are spot or near futures prior to September 1932.
From Apr. 1, 1940 to date they are near futures.


-7-

Cottont Spot price per pound at New Orleans, Bombay,
and Sac Paulo, specified periods 1/


-






cs-45


Indian and Brazilian cottons decline relative
to American,rnd Evyptian Uopers further increase

In Liverpool prices of Indian and Brazilian cottons declined farther
relative to the price of American during the last few weeks. As of July
26 the price of Indian Oomra #1 was equivalent to 72 percent of the price
of American iiiddling. On June 7 this ratio was 79 percent. Between these
two dates the Trice of Brazilian Sao Paulo declined from 100 percent of the
price of American Iiddling to 96 percent. During the sane period, on the
other hand, Egyptian Uppers increased from 137 percent of the price of
American to 152 percent on June 28 rnd 145 percent on July 26.

The recent declines in the relation of Indian and Brazilian to
American have placed these growths in a more favorable price position than
normally exists. In the 10 years ended July 1937 India nOomra averaged 78
percent of the price of American lliddling and Brazilian 'Sao Paulo approxi-
mately 9S percent. About the middle of the season now dr.win2 to a close
each of these growths was much higher than usual in relation to American.

SPOT S

United Sta.tes weekly exports irregular,
but average above last year

Domestic exports of cotton continued well above last year during the
6-week period ended July 25, despite the almost complete cessation of er-
ports to continental Europe. During this period total exports of American
cotton were 10 percent larger then in the corresponding weeks last year,
and 31 percent less than in the like period of 1938, according: to data re-
leased by the New York Cotton Dchonge. This occurred even though only
9,000 bvles were exported to the whole of continental Europe. During this
6 weeks' period about 9/10 of totrl exports went to Gre.t Britain, Japan,
and Canada. From August 1 to July 25 exports totaled 6,100,000 running
bales, exceeding those of the like period in 1938-39 by S3 percent. They
were, however, only 8 percent larger than in the corresponding period of
1937-38.

In June exports were 134,000 running bales, according to da&ta re-
leased by the Department of Co-nerce. This was 18 percent larger than in
June 1939, but smaller than in any other June since 1903. Although exports
to France in June were not large, amounting to only 12,000 bales, they were
4 times as large as the small exports of June last year. Harked or sub-
stantial percentage increases occurred in exports to the United Kingdom,
Canada, China, and Japan.

For the 11 months, August through June, exports, as officially re-
ported, totaled 6,055,000 bales, an increase of 88 percent over the
3,220,000 bales exported during the corresponding months a year earlier.
The ll-nonth total was, however, 500,000 bales less than the 10-year
(1928-39 to 1937-38) average for August to June. During the ll-uonth


- 8 -





0os-45


: June : Aug. to June
Country of :10-yr.av: : : :1940 :10-yrav : : :1939-40
origin and :1926-29 :193 1939 1940 :as a :192-29 :1937-:1935-:1939-I as a
destination : to : : 9 :% of : to : 38 : 39 : 40 : % of
:1937-38 : : : :939q :1937-38 : : : :193-399


hUited States to:
Germany .......:
United Kingdom.:
France ........:
Italy .........:
Spain .........:
Belgium .......:
Canada ......:
Japan .........:
China .........:
Other countries:





United Kingdom.:
Prance ........:
United States .:
Germany V ....:
Italy .........:
Japan .........
British India .:
Other countries:
Total ........:

.razil to
Japan .......
United Kingdom.:
Germany .......
France ........
Italy .........:
Netherlands ...
Belgium .......
Other countries:
Total ........:
Compiled front of
I/ Less th:n 50
B2 s Includes Aus
Not available


1,000
run .
bales

51
50
1i
33
10
7
14
69
27
43
322
1,000
bales
478 Ib.


1,000 1,000 1,000


run, run.
bales bales


run.
bales Pct.


17 15 0 ---
22 10 26 260.0
8 3 12 400.0
19 9 7 77.8
1 I/ 2 ---
6 2 0 ---
16 24 40 166.7
30 28 35 125.0
/ 2 3 150.0
57 21 9 42.9
176 114 134 117.5
1,000 1,000 1,000
bales bales bales
478 ).47 Jh 4178 b. Pet.


30
15
1
23
6
12
4
28


30
iV


100.0

300.0

33.3
33.3
25.0
17.q


1,000 1,000 1,OCO 1,000


run.
bales

1,1S3
1,264
683
547
202
150
215
1,403
262
6o0
6.509
1,000
ba7les
47S Ib.


510
193
89
143
109
log
102
o68
706


run, run. run.
bales b:les bales Pct.


645
1,521
711
483
1
1S4
233
621
22
9,2
5.403
1,000
bales


307 19
394 1,847
335 724
261 542
16 270
S6 200
215 392
s46 672
G4 406
676 783
3,20 6,055
1,000 1,000
bales bales


478 3.4783b. 4781b


543
224
)4
194
110
75
127
llOi


533
1`3
33
19s
102
146
50
65


628
314
57
12
97
139
116
252


6.19
46S.
216.1
207.7
1,687.5
232.6
182.3
103.1
483.3
115.8
188.0


Pet.


117.8
171.6
172.7
6.1
95.1
95.2
145.0
71.0


94 106 119 45 37.8 1,518 1,66S 1,640 1.622 98.9
Ap-r. :Aug. to Apr.

/ 6 S 2 25.0 3/ 65 206 06 41.7
4 4 23 575.0 143 14 201 130.5
33 35 0 --- 337 1i7 70 37.4
3 3 / --- 36 CS 55 62.5
1 6 3 50.0 6 15 20 44.4
S 1 1 100.0 9 21 27 128.6
1 1 --- 17 1I 19 105.6
4 14 17 121.4 48 123 101 52.1
23 52 71 47 66.2 291 561 G12 579 65.G
ficial sources.
0 bales.
tria beginning January 1938.
e by countries.


9 -

Cotton: Eports from specified countries, average 1928-29
to 1937-38, and seasons 1937-38 to dcte


I


I


I


:*
:t


33
13
1
12
8
7
6
26





CS-45


period exports to Italy, France, Belgium, and the United Kingdom were from
2 to over 4-_ tines as large as in the corresponding months of 1938-39.
Marked percentage increases also occurred in exports to a number of other
countries. (See accompanying table.)

The outlook for exports during the months immediately ahead is
obviously dependent, to a large degree, on developments in the European
war. As long as the main consuming eaeas of continental Europe continue
blockaded, cotton exports are likely to be greatly restricted. In the 5
years ended 1938-39 continental Europe, excluding Russia, consumed approxi-~
mately 2,536,000 bales of American cotton, which was equivalent to 46 per-
cent of the total foreign consumption of American. In addition, this area
consumed about 2,962,000 bales of foreign cotton, most of which was imported
from countries now shut off from at least most of this important consuming
region. A continuation of this situation would meen that domestic exports
to this area would continue to be negligible. Furthermore, American cotton
would nieet increased competition from foreign growth in the few remaining
export markets.

In addition, it is expected that imports into Japan and the United
Kingdom, as well as to some of the other remaining markets, will be much
less in 1940-41 than in the season ending July 31, 1940. This expectation
is due in part to the increased stocks of American and other cotton-on hand
in these countries, and the possibility that consumption nay be smaller than
in 1939-20. As indicated in the accompanying discussion of the cotton textile
situation in Joaan and China, the unfavorable outlook for Japanese cloth ex-
ports, as well as prospects for a further reduction in home consumption,
seem likely to materially restrict Japanese mill consumption for the 12
months beginning in August, as compared with the preceding 12 months. Mill
consumption in the United Kingdon may also be smaller in 1940-41 than in the
season just ended.

DftLAID ATD CONSUIJPTION

UNITED STATES: I.ll activity and general
industrial production increase

United States cotton mill activity adjusted for seasonal variations
increased materially in June and early July, according to trade data. For
the week ended July 20 domestic mill activity was 13 percent higher than in
late I:ay, according to indexes released by the New York Times. The New York
Times' index for the week ended July 20 showed mill activity at 138 percent
of norri.1, compared with 142 and 122 percent for the weeks ended July 13 and
May 25, the latter being the lowest since July last year. In July last year
this index averaged about 128. The Federal Reserve Board's index of cotton
consumption (1923-35 100) was 118 in June compared with 116 in ilay, 113
in April, and 115 in June last year.

The hi-.her rate of mill activity during the last few weeks has exist-
ed despite the fact that manufacturers' sales of cotton goods are said to
have been less than production. Some lines of producers are reported as now
having relatively small orders on hand, but this is not viewed with particular
concern. The recent increases in industrial production, employment, and pay





- 11 -


rolls are generally considered as creating a favorable outlook for-coton
consumption and mill activity for the weeks and months immediately ahead.
Observers in the cotton trade are forecasting consumption for 1940-41 all
the way from about the same as the unusually high consumption in 1939-40
to 10 or even 15 percent larger. It now seems almost certain that con-
sumption in 1939-40 will be reported at close to 7,750,000 bales. For the
11 months ended June 30 consumption totaled 7,148,000 bales, an increase of
810,000 bales over the corresponding period of 1938-39.

EUROPE: liill activity declines in Great Britain
and apparently continues low in continental Europe

British cotton mill activity and British retail sales have declined
considerably in recent weeks, according to a cable dated July 22 from the
office of the American Ambassador at London. As a result British mill
workers' nork-week was reduced, effective July 22, from about 55s_ hours
back to 48 hours, and the operatives' holidays, which had not been permitted
since early June, were to have been resumed.

British cotton mill consumption, however, has continued exceptionally
high, largely as a result of heavy output of goods for military and civil
defense purposes. New efforts are being made on the part of British officials
to stinmlate exports of cotton textiles. The formation of a British export
syndicate is reported as proceeding actively. Manufacturers are now agitat-
ing for a relaxation of the proposed restriction, effective October 1, on
the sale of cotton goods to retailers. Government buying of cotton textiles
was reported to have become less active during recent weeks, and it seems
likely that the production of goods on Government orders may now be, or soon
will become, somewhat smaller than in the immediate past. l!anufactur-ers not
engaged in Government work are said to have been steadily losing ground and
considerable machinery is expected to become idle unless there is an early
improvement in denand. Nevertheless, if the war continues, and if there is
no serious damage to machinery, cotton consumption should continue high even
though materially below the level of the past few weeks.

It is not Imnon to what extent mills in France, Belgium, and Holland
were damaged by military operations, but it is believed to have been con-
siderable. The cotton industry in the Netherlands, on the other hand, appears
to have been little affected. In view of the shortage of raw cotton which
has no doubt existed in the German-controlled area, mill activities in German
mills may have been increased during recent weeks through the use of cotton
which came under German control after the occupation of France vnd the Low
Countries. Even so, it seems quite likely that cotton mill consumption in
continental Europe as a whole is now running materially below the level
existing prior to the beginning of the war.

ORIENT: 1ill activity further restricted
in Japan and China

Japanese mill consumption of raw cotton is estimated to have been
about 8 percent lower in June than in Hay and 15 percent lorer than in
JAne last year. Despite the reduced production of cotton y.rn and piece-
goods there was a further accumulaotion of excessive stocks of unsold


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piece-goods. ,ith the loss of virtually all sterling currency markets,
and reductions in other markets for cotton goods, export prices of cotton
textiles have declined to an unprofitable.point. These developments are
said to have brought about a gradual recognition ba cotton manufacturers
that, as a result of the China emergency, and the heavy armament and
industrialization program of Japan, along with the European war, the
Japanese cotton textile industry is now face to face with prospects of
further retrenchment.

In June Japanese cloth exports dropped to 110 million square yards
compared with 147 million square yards in May and 181 million in June last
year. June e=oorts were the smallest for any month since February 1932.
Reduced exports, small sales, and large stocks of unsold goods have result-
ed in an agreement among manufacturers to further curtail output. It is
said that an ajreenent has been reached to limit production of yarn for ex-
port or for use in the production of cloth for export in September to
100,000 bv.les. This is 20 percent less than that agreed to for July. .ith
cloth e;o-orts at June levels, even this production of such yarns is said to
be far too l.rge. Figures on cloth stocks remain closely guarded, but the
best evidence available indicates such stocks nust now be well in excess of
1 billion square yards.

All signs are said to point to further postponement of Japanese
purchases of new crop American cotton. Prospective buyers are being re-
strained by probable further restrictions in mill activity. It is said
that they also hope for a price reduction through an export payment program
such as existed in 1939-40, which would nake American cotton nore com-
petitive with Brazilian and Indian.

It is reported that the Finance ministry and the cotton industry
have applied themselves vigorously to the problem of making payments on
cotton rhich are over due. Appreciable progress is reported with payments
being released at faster rates than shipments are arriving, thus reducing
the net unpaid balance. Estimated unpaid cotton in Japan on June 30 is
believed to have not exceeded 2u0,000 bales, of which about 175,000 bales
were American.

Cotton nill activity in most of the important mill regions of China,
including Manchuria, was reduced during June. In Manchuria mill curtail-
ment rates were increased to 34.25 percent in June compared with 64.25 in
May. The mills in northern China were reported to have been operating at
less than 50 percent. I: Shnn 1xai mill operations were reduced somewhat
but continued at a murch higher rate thnm. in most other parts of China, but
it is reported that jp- :ese mills there hxae dacd.rod to curtail activity
at least 30 percent be,;,n"in' July 1. Chinese mills in Shanghai are also
expected to reduce p'o :,-Lcion further. l.ills in nc:-chern Chine.,pn the other
hand, are expected to increase their operations slightly as a result of hav-
ing obtained peri.its for importing substantial quantities of foreign cotton
in July 'nd Aiugset. octal nill consumption in China, including l!anchuria,
during June is estimated at 130,000 bales compared with 145,000 bales in lUay
At this rate of consurption!- locks of ran cotton are reported to be sufficial
for at least 2 months' activity with relatively large amounts of cotton
previously purchased yet to arrive.






- 13 -


The decline in cotton:.mill consumption in China during recent weeks
has been influenced by the large speculative supplies of yarns and piece-
goods which had accumulated, declining yar prices due to improvement in the
value of Chinese currency, declines in cotton prices in foreign markets,
offerings of Japanese yarns at low prices, and decreases in actual demand
from the interior caused by intensified Japanese blockade of the Chinese
controlled area.

In June mill consumption of Indian cotton in India is reported to have
totaled .250,000 bales of 400 pounds. This is slightly less than the 261,000
bales (revised) consumed in May, or the 254,000 bales consumed in June last
year. For .the 11 months, August through June, consumption is now reported to
totaled 2,700,000 bales, which is only 5 percent less than the record con-
sumption of the corresponding period last season and with that exception the
largest on record. In view of the sharp decline in imports of cotton textiles
it is not surprising that mill consumption in India has been running at near
record levels, From August through January total imports of cotton cloth were
equivalent to roughly 150,000 bales of 478 pounds net weight of raw cotton,
compared with 180,000 bales during the corresponding period a year earlier.
Most of this decrease was in imports from the United Kingdom and Japan where
the conduct of war operations has severely hampered the export of cotton goods.

ACHEAGE, PRODUCTION, STOCKS, AND SUPPLY

United States acreage slightly larger

The acreage of cotton in cultivation in the United States on July 1
was estimated by the Crop Reporting Board to be 25,077,000 acres. This is
1.6 percent more than the 24,683,000 acres in cultivation on July 1, 1939,
but 28.2 percent less than the 10-year (1929-38) average. With average
abandonment the indicated acreage for harvest would be the smallest, with the
exception of 1938 and 1939, in any year since 1899. Total plantings are well
below the Agricultural Conservation Program allotments even though some farm-
ers are said to have planted in excess of their allotments. Some of these
farmers are expected to remove their excess acreage.

In most States the acreage in cultivation July 1 this year was the
same as that of a year earlier, or showed increases of 4 percent or less. In
North Carolina, New Mexico, and Arizona, however, there were increases of from
10 to 20 percent. A substantial part of the increase of acreage in Arizona is
accounted for by a marked increase in the acreage of American-Egyptian cotton.
The total acreage in American-Egyptian increased from 41,000 acres in 1939 to
70,000 acres in 1940, the figure for 1940 including a small acreage in New
Mexico. There was also a large increase in the acreage of Sea Island cotton
in cultivation in 1940.

August 1 domestic carry-over is expected to show
marked decline, but still T-tal nearlly1 lion bales

With domestic mill consumption for the 11 months ending in June report-
ed at approximately 7,150,000 bales, it is now expected that the total for the


hJ


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UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08900 3874


- 14-


1939-40 season will approximate 7,750,000 bales. All but about L3.0.00
of this will be American cotton. Domestic consumption, plus exprt,.
total just under 13,800,000 bales compared with a domestic distributit
American cotton in 1938-39 of about 10,000,000 bales. The indicateda. .
button for the year ending July 31, 1940 seems likely therefore to
the season innings, plus the adjustments for the "city crop," by nel:ii
2-1/4 million bales. This in turn would indicate that the carry-onw., .
American cotton on August 1 this year will be reported as totaling Just 0er
10-3/4 million bales. On August 1 last year the carry-over was almost 13
million bales.

Because of the war, data on mill consumption and stocks in forla.i.
countries are scarce. It is believed, however, that stocks of AmeSri.a.
cotton in such countries are now materially larger than on August 1 ..( E t.
year, consumption in foreign countries during the 1939-40 season aPhpea
having been materially loss than imports of American cotton. It is 9..p
that foreign stocks may have increased, roughly, equivalent to half CiI
decrease in domestic stocks.

In view of the expected total domestic carry-over of America COt
and the indicated stocks of Government loan and Government owned ntta -.f$.-
seems likely that domestic stocks of "free" American cotton on A8upt 1,
1940 may amount to a little under 2,000,000 bales. This is somewhat sa11. a
than the total of such stocks a year earlier and the smallest for aqy pOy
since 1925. ii,
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