The Cotton situation

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Title:
The Cotton situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
Economic Research Service, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture.
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
five no. a year
bimonthly[ former may 1961-]
irregular[ former 1945/46-mar. 1961]
monthly[ former 1936-1944]
quarterly
completely irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Cotton trade -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
CS-1 (Nov. 1936) -
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Nov. 1936-Apr. 1975.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Ceased publication in Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 1936-Oct. 1953; by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961; by: Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May 1961-Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issues for 1936-Oct. 1953 published by the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics; Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; May 1961-Apr. 1975 by the Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 020142316
oclc - 01768374
lccn - 63045282
Classification:
lcc - HD9070.1 .C78
System ID:
AA00013000:00016

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I'.


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

CS-35 September 28, 1939

THE C O TT ON S IT UAT ION



: The effects on cotton of the present European war
: seem likely to be great, as were the effects of the World War.
: This and numerous inquiries have made it seem desirable to
: devote this month's issue of The Cotton Situation to a dis-
: cussion of (1) the important developments during the World
: War, (2) some of the differences between the present situation
: and that of 1914, and (3) the outlook with respect to cotton
: consumption, stocks, and production. Because of legal restric-
: tions, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics can make no predic-
: tions as to the possible effects of the present conflict on
: cotton prices.


Summary

With the outbreak of war in Europe in early September 1939 cotton

prices along with prices of other commodities and securities advanced

sharply.. Between September 2 and 7, domestic cotton rose approximately

1 cent per pound. This was in striking contrast with the sharp break in

prices and the panicky market conditions following the outbreak of war in

1914. Despite a subsequent decline, domestic prices remained somewhat

higher during the third week of September than at the beginning of the

month and slightly above the average for 1938-39.

The general price advance in early September, including the rise in

cotton and other raw material prices, largely reflected increased purchases

by domestic buyers and speculators who anticipated further price advances

as a result of war-time demand. Memories of eventual advances in cotton

prices during the World War, despite initial decreases, no doubt have played

a part in determining the divergent trend of prices following the outbreak

of war in 1939 and in 1914.

~yr \
.. .. .


[L-. B Fl""






CS-35


Exports of American cotton during the first week after the outbreak

of war were materially smaller than in the corresponding period last year.

In the second and third weeks of September, however, they greatly exceeded

those of a year earlier. For the period from August 1 to September 22 they

exceeded exports for the same period last year by 102,000 bales or 21 per-

cent. These figures do not include cotton sold for export at a later date

in connection with the Government's export program.

From the standpoint of cotton, there are many important differences

as well as similarities in the situation existing at the present time as

compared with 1914.

The indicated total world supply of American cotton for the current

season (1939-40) is about 21 times the world consumption of American cotton

during 1938-39, and may be even more in excess of the current season's

consumption. In 1914-15 the world supply of American cotton was 11 times

the 1913-14 world consumption of American cotton. In contrast, however,

nearly 10 million bales (excluding about 700,000 bales traded to Great

Britain), or roughly two-fifths, of the indicated supply of American cotton

for 1939-40 is in Government loan stocks. Moreover, should cotton prices

drop to 52 percent of parity a Government loan on the 1939 crop would be

mandatory, and the export subsidy program also is a price-supporting factor.

Another important difference between 1914 and 1939 is that cotton consumption

in and imports of cotton by Germany and its allies represent a much smaller

proportion of the world's consumption and imports now than at the beginning

of the World War, due in part to the large substitution of rayon and other

synthetic fibor for cotton.


- 2 -







CS-35


For the 1914-15 season, spot prices at New Orleans averaged a little

below 8-1/4 cents compared with an average of 15-1/8 cents in the year ended

July 1914, and the 5-year average (1909-13) of 13 cents. This decline in

the 1914-15 season price was due in part to larger supplies of cotton than

in the previous season, but apparently more to the disrupted condition of

foreign trade and adverse developments in the general business situation.

Total exports of American cotton for the 1914-15 season were less

than in 1913-14 by 600,000 bales, or 7 percent, and exports from India

dropped 1,400,000 bales, or 44 percent, below those of the previous season.

Exports from -gypt, Erazil, and most other countries for which data are

available also declined.

Comparatively fe''j consumption data are available by countries during

the World War period. In the United States, total mill consumption was ap-

proximately the same in 1914-15 .s during the 12 months preceding the out-

break of war, and the estimated total consumption in foreign countries was

about 1-1/2 million bales smaller.

In the first 2 years of the World War, foreign consumption of cotton

declined another million bales, approximately offsetting the increase which

occurred in the United States. In the third and fourth years of the war

(1916-17 and 1917-18) marked further reductions occurred in consumption a-

broad, while little additional increase occurred in the United States.

The indications are that the effects of the present conflict on busi-

ness conditions and on the general price level during the first year may be

more nearly similar to those of the second year of the World War. In view

of this possibility, domestic cotton consumption may be substantially larger


- 3 -








CS-35


than the relatively large (6,860,000 bale) consumption of 1938-39. Consump-

tion in foreign countries seems likely to decline, possibly roughly offset-

ting the increase in the United States. Should world consumption about

equal that of the past season, it would slightly exceed the indicated world

production and reduce the end-of-season carry-over.

In the event that food prices become more favorable relative to cotton

prices, it is possible that cotton acreage and production in foreign coun-

tries might decline in 1940. Should the war continue throughout the 1940-41

season, cotton mill consumption would likely show a still further decline.

This, however, might be largely offset by increased consumption in the United

States and elsewhere.

Developments During the World War

Initial effects of World War demoralizing

The initial effects on the cotton market of the outbreak of the war
in Europe in 1914 were very demoralizing. In the first 5 days immediately
preceding the closing of the domestic cotton exchanges on the morning of
July 30, domestic cotton prices declined about 3/4 cent per pound. When
business was resumed on the New York Cotton Exchange in mid-November the
price was 5-1/2 cents below, and on December 11 it was 6 cents, or over 45
percent, below the July 25 quotation. The great decline in prices in the
early months of the war was due largely to the uncertainty with respect to
foreign markets, to the very large 1914 domestic crop, and to the acute
though short-lived financial panic resulting in part from the large sale of
American securities by Europeans.

During the 3 months, August through October 1914, cotton exports from
the United States were only one-fourth as large as in the corresponding pe-
riod a year earlier. The 1914 American crop was 2 million bales larger than
that of 1913 with innings to November 1 one million bales larger than to
the samxj date in 1913. The stock exchanges vucre closed for a number of
weeks, and after opening, the prices of industrial stocks were greatly below
those of the first half of 1914. It was more than a year before they recov-
ered to the July 191- levels.

After a comparatively short time it became apparent that Great Britain
and its allies would be able to keep the ocean routes open to commerce, and
trade soon picked up greatly. By January 1915 cotton and linters exports
from the United States had recovered to levels above those of a year earlier.


- 4 -








CS-35


This occurred despite the fact that direct exports to Germany and her allies,
which in the preceding years had been important markets for our cotton, were
shut off.

Domestic cotton mill consumption dropped materially during August
1914 but increased somewhat during the next few months, although up until
February 1915 domestic mill consumption was from 6 to 12 percent less than
during the corresponding months of the 1913-14 season. Domestic cotton
prices continued greatly below those of the previous season and in December
and January were 4-1/2 to 5-1/2 cents less than in the corresponding months
a year earlier.

First year seos exports, consumption, and prices reduced

By the end of the 1914-15 season, after a full year of combat, the
domestic price of Middling 7/8 inch cotton was 4-1/4 cents lower than imme-
diately before the war and lower than in any month between May 1905 and Au-
gust 1914. It was nearly one-third lower than the 5-year, 1909-10 to 1913-
14, average. For the 11-1/3 months of the 1914-15 season, spot prices at
New Orleans averaged a little below 8-1/4 cents compared with an average of
13-1/8 cents in the 12 months ended July 1914 and the 5-year average of 13
cents. The world supply of American cotton for the 1914-15 season was 2-3/4
million bales larger than that of the preceding season and the foreign pro-
duction about unchanged. Consequently, cotton prices probably would have
averaged somewhat lower than in 1913-14 even had there been no war. The
larger supply, however, probably would not have reduced prices more than 2
or 3 cents per pound below the 1913-14 average at the most.

Total exports of American cotton for the season were less than in
1913-14 by 600,000 bales, or 7 percent, and exports from India dropped
1,400,000 bales, or 44 percent, below those of the previous season. Exports
from Egypt, Brazil, and most other countries for which data are available
also declined. Something like 800,C00 bales of the exports of American cot-
ton went to increase the stocks of such cotton held in foreign countries,
according to the bust data available. Stocks in Germany may have declined,
however, because of Germany's difficulty in obtaining American cotton and
the fact that consumption probably held up at least fairly well. The loss
in direct exports to Germany and its allies and the uncertainty as to how
much cotton was getting into Germany by way of Italy and other neutral coun-
tries (Italy did not declare war until '.arch 1916) were important factors
contributing to the low lovol of cotton prices during the first year of the
war. There was much uncertainty as to when trade would be resumed with Ger-
many as well as to Germany's ability to purchase cotton after trade was re-
sumed.

Data on consumption of cotton by countries during the war period are
inadequate. Cotton mill consumption in the United Kingdom in 1914-15 was
about 300,000 bales less than in the preceding season but most of this ap-
parently was due to reduced production of cotton textiles for export. The
quantity of cotton manufactured for domestic use by Great Britain appears to
have increased slightly in 1914-15. In the United States, total mill


- 5 -









- 6 -


consumption was approximately the sar.ie as during the 12 months preceding the
outbreak of war in 1914. Exports of Anerican cotton to France were about
400,000 b..les, or nearly 40 percent, lower than in the preceding season.
French consunrption of this cotton, whic.i constituted a very large percentage
of the total, may have been much better maintained through a reduction in
stocks. Exports of American cotton to Italy were more than twice as large
in 1914-15 as in the preceding season. This marked incre ise was apparently
due at least in part to the fact that som. Anmrican cotton was shipped
through Italy to Germ.ny and its allies. It is also quite possible that
mill activity in Italy may h3ve becn stimul.-Ated by s'lcs of cotton textiles
to Germany and its allies and by reduco3d compttiticn from British and French
textiles in export markets. The total estimnt-d mill consumption of cotton
in foreign countries was 1-1/2 million b lcs smaller in 1914-15 than in
1913-14.

It is significant thnt in the Unitfd States and Great Britain, for
which consumption estimates arc cvail-ble, the mill demand for cotton ap-
pears to hwvo been lower during the first year after the outbreak of the war
than during the preceding 12 months. In each of these countries, mill con-
sumption was about the s-ame -s in the preceding season evon though the price
of cotton avcr.igcd much lower. Export data would indicate that the French
mill demand was also less in 191--15 t:an during the preceding season. In
this connection, it is important to observe that the quantity of cotton used
in the.manufacture of munitions is quite small, especially as long as lint-
ers and other materials cheaper than lint cotton are available. The avail-
able data indicate that the world consumption of American and probably the
world consunrption of all cotton was considerably less in the first year of
the war than in the preceding 12 months, even though cotton production and
supply were larger.

S,.cond year prices advance; production,
exports, and consumption decline further

During the second year of the conflict, cotton prices in the United
States advanced from. a little below 9 cents in August 1915 to about 13 cents
(Iiddling 7/8 inch at New Orleans) in June and July 1916. It was, there-
fore, two full years after the war began before domestic prices recovered to
the levels existing immediately before the war. Cotton prices advanced some-
what more in Liverpool than in the United States with the margin of Liver-
pool prices over domestic prices increasing substantially, largely as a re-
sult of increased transportation costs und,.r submarine warfare. All of the
important growths quoted in Liverpool averaged much higher in 1915-16 than
in the preceding season and slightly higher than in 1913-14. Egyptian
Sakellaridis averaged 5 cents higher than in 1913-14, apparently on account
of its use for airplanes and parachutes. The margin of the price of Amer-
ican Middling Fair stable at Liverpool over the price of approximately the
some; quality of cotton at New Orleans averaged 3-1/2 cents in 1915-16 com-
pared with 2-3/4 the preceding season and less than 2 cents in the year im-
mediately preceding the war.


CS-35






cs-35


- 7-


The advance in cotton prices during the 1915-16 season is attributed,
in part, to the smaller production and supply of American and foreign cotton.
The 1915 American crop was nearly 5 million bales less than that of the
previous year and the foreign crop was about li million bales smaller.
Despite a marked increase in the carry-over at the beginning of the season,
the supply of American cotton was 2 million bales less than in 1914-15. The
advance in the price level in the United States and the increase to new high
levels in domestic consumption also contributed to the price advance. In
1915-16 the all-commodity index averaged 25 percent above the pre-war average,
whereas in 1914-15 it averaged only 1.5 percent above. The United States
cotton consumption increased 800,000 bales or 15 percent over that of the
previous season which in itself was a record high by a slight margin.

Primarily as a result of the sharp decline in cotton prices and
relatively higher prices of other commodities, American cotton farmers
planted nearly 6 million fewer acres of cotton in 1915 than in 1914. In
addition, the yields per acre were much lower than in the previous season.
Cotton acreage in many foreign countries also declined in 1915.

Estimated foreign consumption of American cotton in 1915-16 again
declined and was nearly 1 million bales below that of the previous season.
It was the lowest since prior to 1906-07. Foreign consumption of American
cotton exceeded the United States exports by 1 million bales with a corre-
sponding decline in foreign stocks. The world consumption and exports of
all cotton also were probably more than in the first year of the war.

Third and fourth years prices soar; production,
consumption, and exports continue restricted

In the third year of the war the rapidly advancing price level began
to have a pronounced effect on cotton prices. The world supply of American
cotton was somewhat smaller than in the preceding season, although larger
than the 1909-13 average, but world consumption of American cotton was nearly
500,000 bales less than in 1915-16 and 600,000 bales less than the 5-year
pre-war average. The average price of American Middling at New Orleans
averaged 7 cents or 61 percent higher than that of the previous season which
was about the same as the 5-year pre-war average.

The effects on cotton prices of the rapidly advancing general price
level were even more pronounced in 1917-18. In that season, estimated world
consumption of American cotton was equal to 71 percent of the season's
supply, of American cotton, whereas in the 5 years ending with August 1914
this ratio averaged 81. Nevertheless, American Middling at New Orleans
averaged 15.63 cents, or 122 percent, above the average for the 5 years
ended July 1914. The Bureau of Labor Statistics all-commodity index averaged
92 percent above the pre-war base period.

Cotton prices at Liverpool increased considerably more than prices in
the United States. In 1917-18 American Middling at Liverpool averaged 141
cents higher than American Middling at New Orleans. Egyptian cotton at
Liverpool averaged 17 cents to 18 cents higher than somewhat similar
qualities in Alexandria.






os-35


Desptt'e thievery high prices receivedfor the 1916-17 crop, cotton
producers it the United States and many'foreigl. countries planted less cotton
in 1917 than in 1913 and 1914. In the'United States the acreage and produc-
tion were adversely affected by abnormally heavy boll weevil infestation.
Other factors tending to restrict domestic and foreign cotton acreage and
production included the increased cost of production and higher prices of
alternative products.

Developments Following Outbreak of War in 1939

Outbreak of war brings substantial price advance;
exports drop, then increase

At the outbreak of the present European War, domestic commodity and
security prices advanced sharply, in contrast with the sharp drop which oc-.
curred at the outbreak of the war in 1914, Between September 2 and 7,
domestic cotton prices rose approximately 1 cent per pound along with the
general spurt in prices. Despite a subsequent decline, domestic cotton
prices in the third week of September remained substantially above those
existing at the beginning of September and were materially above the average
for the 1938-39 season. The rise in raw material prices and prices of
securities in early September largely reflected increased purchases by domestic
buyers and speculators who anticipated further price advances. To at least
some extent, this speculative buying appears to have reflected an anticipated:
rise in prices somewhat similar to that which developed during the last 2
years of the World War.

During the week-ended September 7, the first full week after the
outbreak of war, exports of American cotton were much smaller than the small
exports during the corresponding week last season. Exports in the second
and third weeks of September, however, exceeded those of the corresponding
weeks of 1938 by 149 and 50 percent, respectively. ESports from August 1
to September 22 totaled 586,000 bales against 484,000 bales during the corre-
sponding period last season, an increase of 21 percent. The export subsidy,
exceptionally small stocks of cotton in Europe, and the exchange of American
cotton for British rubber are important factors favorable to higher exports
this season than last. The disorganizing and disrupting effects of the war
on international trade should tend to restrict exports although there may
be a tendency for certain countries to build up their stocks of raw cotton
against subsequent increased import difficulties.

Important differences between present situation and
that of 1914

From the standpoint of cotton, there are many important differences
as well as similarities in the situation existing at the present time as
compared with 1914. Insofar as American cotton is concerned, the indicated'
total world supply for thb current season (1939-40) is about 2* times as
large as the world consumption of American cotton during the preceding
season and would be even larger relative to the current season's consumption
if consumption should decline as it did during the first years of the World








War. In 1914-15 the world supply of American cotton was less than 1i times
as large as the 1913-14 world consumption of American cotton. In contrast
with this, however, is the fact that nearly 10i million bales (excluding
about 700,000 bales traded to Great Britain), or roughly two-fifths, of
the indicated supply of American cotton is owned by the United States
Government or is being held as collateral against Government loans. Much
of this cotton either cannot be released during the current season, according
to present law, or cannot be released without a loss unless prices advance
considerably over present levels. There is also the fact that should cotton
prices decline to 52 percent of parity a Government loan on the 1939 crop
would be mandatory under existing law. The export subsidy program also may
be a factor.

Another important difference in the situation at the present time and
that existing in 1914 is the fact that cotton consumption in and imports of
cotton by Germany and its allies represent a much smaller proportion of the
world's consumption and imports at the present time than at the beginning of
the World War. In the years immediately prior to the outbreak of the World
War the area which now comprises Greater Germany probably consumed about
1 million bales more cotton per year than the population occupying this area
consumed during the 1938-39 season. The smaller consumption by the people
of this area during the past season is largely accounted for by the marked
increase in the consumption of synthetic fibers. In addition to the smaller
cotton consumption in Germany at the present time, the total world consumption
of cotton during the past season probably was something like 6 to 8 million
bales larger than the world consumption in 1913-14. This means, therefore,
that a proportional decline in the imports by and the consumption in Germany
during this present conflict as in the World War period would be of consider-
ably less significance at the present time than it was then.

It is possible, of course, that the aerial warfare conducted during
the present combat may result in the destruction of many of the cotton textile
mills in the belligerent countries and tend to restrict cotton consumption
to a greater extent than occurred during the World War.

Outlook for 1939 and 1940

If general business conditions in the United States continue to
improve with an upward trend in wages, employment, and the general price level
(see Demand and Price Situation Statement for September 15) during the next
2 years, it seems very probable that domestic cotton consumption will average
considerably higher than in 1938-39. A combination of improved domestic
conditions, reduced imports of cotton textiles and products made from other
fibers, and possibly increased exports of cotton textiles might result in
domestic mill consumption reaching the record high of nearly 8 million bales
established in 1936-37. For the 1939-40 season, however, a more reasonable
estimate would seem to be between this figure and the 6,860,000 bales
consumed in 1938-39.

There is little reason to expect that our export trade in cotton
textiles will increase sufficiently to greatly affect domestic mill consumption.
While the competition from British textiles may be considerably less than


cs-35


- 9 -






cs-35


- 10 -


during the past season, a part of any such reduction in British exports may
be offset by increased exports by Italy and Japan.

Cotton consumption in Europe seems likely to be considerably lower
in 1939-40 than in the past season. American cotton may represent a somewhat
larger proportion of the total than in 1938-39 because of larger total
supplies of American cotton anxd the indicated smaller supply of foreign
cotton and because of the domestic cotton export subsidy. In Great Britain,
the recent exchange of rubber for approximately 700,000 bales of American
cotton may also tend to temporarily encourage the use of a larger proportion
of American cotton. Nevertheless, total European consumption of American
as well as of all kinds of cotton seems quite likely to be considerably less
than in 1938-39. In the belligerent countries the increased use of cotton
for war purposes is likely to be materially offset by reduced consumption
for other purposes. Some increased cotton consumption may occur in those
European countries actually involved in the conflict but not enough to offset
the decline elsewhere.

In the Orient, cotton mill consumption may show some increase. In
Japan, there is the possibility of some increased consumption as a result
of larger exports because of reduced competition from British goods. In
India, mill consumption may increase somewhat as a result of the reduced
imports of cotton textiles from Great Britain. It is significant, however,
that Indian mill consumption during the past season reached an all-time high..
In China, a return to somewhat less unsettled conditions in many areas is
somewhat more favorable to increased cotton mill consumption, but this is
offset, at least in part, by poorer general crops during the current harvest
season.

In areas other than the United States, Europe, and Asia, cotton mill
consumption may also show some increase over that of the previous season.
These possible increases, together with the above-mentioned possible increase
may about offset the probable decline in Europe. At best, however, it seems
improbable that the total world mill consumption will show any substantial
increase and might decline by a considerable amount.

Should the war continue throughout the 1940-41 season, cotton con-
sumption in Europe would likely show a still further decline, but this
decline might be largely offset by increased consumption in the United States
and elsewhere. From the standpoint of supply, the situation may be somewhat
more favorable in 1940-41 than during the current season. Should world
consumption in 1939-40 equal that of 1938-39, it would result in a somewhat
smaller world carry-over of cotton on August 1, 1940 than at the beginning
of the current season. Should food prices during the current season be
substantially higher in relation to cotton prices than in the last few
years, it is possible that cotton production in India, Egypt, and possibly
some of the other countries might decline to some extent. In China, however,
the crop might easily be somewhat larger than the small crop of 1939.




Table 1.- Cotton, American: Production, carry-over, supply, consumption, and exports, sp ed 'i p
:Pre-war : ::Average for war:Average: :
:average,: :period, 1914-15:1934-35:
Item :1909-10 :1913-14:1914-15:1915-16:1916-17:1917-18: to 1917-18 : to :1938-39:1939-40
Sto : : / 1/ : :Ratio :1938-39: I : I
:1913-14 : : : : Actual: to pre-: l/ :
: It : : : : : :war av.:
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Carry-over begin- :running running running running running running running running running running
ning of season: bales bales bales bales bales bales bales Percent bales bales bales
United States .....: 1,289 1,351 1,293 3,791 3,026 2,776 2,721 211.1 7,191 11,446 12,956
Foreign countries .: 1,751 1,901 2,476 2,925 1,863 1,075 2,085 119.1 2,146 2,266 1,167
Total ...........: 3,040 3,252 3,769 6,716 4,889 3,851 4,S06 158.09 9,337 13,712 14,123
Production includ- :
ing city crop ...: 13,177 14,018 16,231 11,307 11,559 11,558 12,664 96.11 12,523 11,676
Supply .............: 16,217 17,270 20,000 18,023 16,448 15,409 17,470 107.73 21,860 25,388
Con sumpt ion:
United States .....: 4,870 5,576 5,375 6,081 6,471 6,382 6,077 124.78 6,316 6,737
Foreign countries .: 8,282 8,442 7,874 6,958 6,091 4,489 6,353 76.71 5,471 4,528
Total ...........: 13,152 14,018 13,249 13,039 12,562 10,871 12,430 94.51 11,787 11,265.
Exports to: / :
United Kingdom ....: 3,388.8 3,455.8 3,771.6 2,852.4 2,682.2 2,275.4 2,895.4 85.4 1,049.0 401.4
Germany ........... 2,440.6 2,786.0 242.7 0 0 0 60.7 2.5 546.5 321.3
France ............: 1,036.7 1,086.5 682.6 921.9 994.1 509.4 777.0 74.9 552.5 338.0
Italy'.............: 482.1 515.2 1,109.5 788.9 643.6 349.2 722.8 149.9 406.6 275.9
Japan ...........: 282.5 336.9 433.0 491.4 481.3 604.3 502.5 177.9 1,221.8 864.3
Other countries ...: 891.4 970.4 2,305.2 1,136.5 937.8 550.1 1,232.4 138.3 1,250.9 1,125.9
Total ........... 8,522.1 9,150.8 8,544.6 6,191.1 5,739.0 4,288.4 6,190.8 72.6 5,027.3 3,326.8
Ratio of world con- : Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
gumption to world :
supply ............: 81.10 81.17 66.24 72.35 76.37 70.55 71.15 87.73 53.92 44.37
Ratio of total ex- :
ports to world :
supply ............: 52.55 52,99 42.72 34.35 34.89 27.83 35.44 67.44 23.00 13.13
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Percent Cents Cents
Price at New Orleans: 13.03 13.12 3/9.23 11.68 18.84 28.96 19.63 150.7 10.88 8.73
IJ Year beginning August 1 except for carry-over, production, supply and consumption in the pre-war period,
vhich was the year beginning September 1. 2J Including linters through 1916-17 since they could not be de-
ducted prior to that date. 3] Average for 11 months.
Production-, carry-over, supply, and consumption compiled from N. Y. Cotton Exchange Yearbook, 1935. Exports
compiled from reports of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. Prices from reports of the New Orleans
cotton Exchange.








Table 2.- Cotton (Oommercial), American and all kinds: carry-over, production and sup ly,
specified seasons


: Stocks beginning
Season : of season
:United States World
S1:


: 1,000
: .bales


e:
1.: 1,289


1,000
bales
/_


3,o4o


1,351


American
: Production : s l
: (in season : Supply
inningss plus:United States"
: city crop) t
1,000 1,000
bales bales
1/ l/


14,467

15.369


17,524
15,098
14.585


: All Kinds


World 1/
1,000
bale s
f /


16,218

17,270


20,000
18,023
16,448


World :
stocks : World :
beginning: ppduattion
of season:
1,000 1,000
bales bales
1/ If ~


21,019

22, 894


25,049
18,850
19,003


16,533 29,042


World
supply


1,000
bales
1/


--- -- ; -








Table 3.- Cotton (commercial), all kinds: Carry-over,
production iad supply, specified seasons


Stocks


Season


Year beginning
September 1

5-year average,
1909-13


1913


Production


Suonlv


: beginning of season : :
:United: Foreign : world d United: Foreign :World :United: Foreign :7orld
: States:courtris: :States:countries: :Statos:countries:
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,00C 1,000 1,000
: bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bclos bales
: 1/ 1/ II/1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/


:*1,357

: 1,511


13,178 7,841 21,019 14,724

14,018 8,876 22,894 15,719


Consumption
:United: Foreign :,., od
:Statos:countries:
1,000 i,OCO 1,000
bales bales bales
/ / 1/

5,062

5,577 17,107 22,684


Year beginning
August 1


1914
1915
1916
1917


5-year average,
1934-38

1938
1939 2_


:1,366
: 3,936
: 3,140
: 2,720


S7,,261

::11,533
:13,032


16,231
11,307
11,509
11,558


9,272 16,533 12,523


11,106
8,881


22,639 11,676
21,913


8,818
7,543
7,444
6,903


16,519

16,063


25,049 17,891
18,850 15,528
19,003 14,847
18,461 14,388


29,042 19,784

27,739 23,209


5,597
6,397
6,789
6,566


25,791

27,169


45,575 6,454

50,378 6,860


15,651
14,807
13,289
11,148


21,248
21,204
20,078
17,714


21,658 28,112

21,605 28,465


l/ Amorican in running
2/ Preliminary.


bales counting round bales as half bales, foreign in bales of 478 pounds.


Compiled from reports of the Now York Cotton Exchange Service.


_


I








- Cotton, American, foreign, all kinds: Stocks at specified locations on September 1, 1914
and. Agust 1, specified seasons


August 1


... -
: Ior- :


.L.S,"u -.,UUU
run- ruan-
ning ning
bales bales


For- : All
eign : kindar
1,000 -1,000 -
run run.
ning ning
bales bales


245
341
596


491


658


487 1, 173
221 _311
708 1,487


36 36


run-
ning
bales


1,000
run-
ning
bales


146


i ; :::


- --- ----


r


1




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