The Cotton situation

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Material Information

Title:
The Cotton situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
Economic Research Service, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture.
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
five no. a year
bimonthly[ former may 1961-]
irregular[ former 1945/46-mar. 1961]
monthly[ former 1936-1944]
quarterly
completely irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Cotton trade -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
CS-1 (Nov. 1936) -
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Nov. 1936-Apr. 1975.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Ceased publication in Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 1936-Oct. 1953; by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961; by: Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May 1961-Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issues for 1936-Oct. 1953 published by the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics; Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; May 1961-Apr. 1975 by the Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 020142316
oclc - 01768374
lccn - 63045282
Classification:
lcc - HD9070.1 .C78
System ID:
AA00013000:00005

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Full Text
A G. --' -i



UNITED STATES DEPAiRT:'~: i OF AGRICULTURS
Bureau of Agricultural Economics --I E;C'S'TORY
iashington

CS-6 April 26,1937

THE COTTON S I TUATI O


SU:'.I LRY

Spot cotton prices were strong during March but declined ;.atzeria..l

in the first half of April. On March 30 the 10-market average for .id.,ling

7/8 of 14.91 cents was the highest avcrpae price recorded in these .:markets

since May 1930. The average for March was 14.15 cents. From 14.82 cents

on April 1 the price fell to 13.48 on April 16 and averr.ged 13.84 for the

week ended April 17.

Approximately 1,150,000 bales of Government financed cotton were

released between February 1 and March 31. The .plan covering the release of

loan stock cotton has continued in operation through April, and 93, 0':

bales were disposed of between April 1 and 22. Stocks of Governmcnt

financed spot cotton on April 22 wert down to about 1,750',C-_ bales

compared with about 3 million bales on January 31 and nearly 5,1-.,C-1 at

the end of January 1936.

exports of cotton from the United States in Mr.rch were 16 percent

larger than in March 1936, but exports in the b-month period, AX..J;t t::roah;

March, were 9 percent less than in the corresponding period a y;nar earlier.

Exports both in March and the B-month period were with the cxce.'tion -f

1934-35 and 1935-36, much smaller than in runy of the -ist 14 cr 15 y~5:rs.

Mill activity and cotton consumption in the 'nitaed StSttI: conntinucd

at record high levels during March and the first prt of Aprii. In ;-c-ent

weeks, however, mill sales of goods have been muterially below ciir nt output.







CS-6 2-

Cotton textile industries in foreign countries continue to be very

active, especially in the United Kingdom and in the Orient. Foreign cotton

continues to be used extensively in place of American. In March there was

a sharp increase in imports of American cotton by Japan, but it is believed

that a large part of this increase in imports of American was a temporary

development following the interruption of trade which accompanied the

recently terminated shipping strike in the United States.

Trade reports indicate that the quantity of fertilizer used in

the American cotton belt this season will be considerably larger than

last year and that tractors are being extensively used to replace and

supplement animal power.

The first official estimate of 1936-37 cotton production in southern

Brazil is for a crop of 1,201,000 bales or 28 percent larger than in 1935-36.

On the basis of present estimates total Brazilian production (Northern and

Southern States combined) will amount to 1,808,000 balus or slightly larger

than in 1935-36.

OM'I ..STIC PRICzS STRO-S IN "MARCH, DECLIi1ED 12 APRIL

Spot cotton prices at the 10 markets were very strong during March
but declined considerably in the first part of April. Prices averaged 13.24
cents on March 1, rose to 14.68 on Mrrch 16, showed a moderate declining
tendency during the next 10 days, then increased sharply to 14.91 cents on
March 30 the highest average recorded since May 1930. The average for
the month was 14.15 cents. The average of 14.70 cents for the week ended
April 3 was the highest weekly average price since May 1930.

A sustained high level of consumption by domestic mills, some improve-
ment in exports as compared with the smne period last season, and brisk
activity in cotton manufacturing and in business in general throughout the
world have continued to be signific-mt price-strengthening factors; they
have not been sufficient, however, to maintain prices at the point reached
in late March and early April. A decline in prices began in the first week
of April. From 14.82 cents on April 1 the 10-market average fell to 13.48
cents on April 16 end averaged 13.84 cents for the week ended April 17.
This abrupt decline in cotton prices has accompanied a sharp fall in the
prices of a number of other basic commodities.







-3-


The prices of foreign cottons at Liverpool, expressed ,-s a perce-tage
of American, did not sho7 any i.iportant changes in Marcn c.onpared with
February. For the mnst part, the rise in the price of Anerican in March
7a7s accompanied by a corresponding change i:;. the price rf foreign cottons.
On an average daring March, Egyptian.- Uppers and Brazilian Sao Pa.lo Fair,
especially the forrc-r, were dearer relative tr AAm.rican than a mon.t.h earlier,
but Indian and Peruvian 7crm slightly cheaper. EJ'pTia and Pr-ruvia-n .ere
higher relative to American than they were a year arlior but Indian and
Brazilian were lo--'r than in the corres).-nding -.onth of 1936. Since the
decline in the price of American cotton. at Liv.-rpoc1 in the first half of
April .v.s not acco:ipanied by a correspondi-.n f;'ll in tn3 prices of foreign
grn-rths, an increase in the ratios of tn;:ir prices t- A:--.ricn:- hzas bcen the
result.

RELL,.SE OF GOVEC,:.T-FI:L:UCED COT'iO COuTITIrED

The Conr.odity Credit Corp-ration ann-ainced on Arril 1 that the
marketing plan for releasing G-vernnent-financc.d crtton int' trade chan:.-els
7ould be continued through April subject t- change in the :-rice, ter"'s, or
conditions on five days notice thr'-ugh the public press and Reccnstruction
Finance Agencies. Ap-r-xir.tely 1,150,000 bales of loan cotton -'ere dis-
posed of during February and March an 93,000 bales in the first 22 de.rs of
April. In the year ended April 1 the C---iodit- Credit Corpnrn-tirn and the
Reconstruction Finance Corporation relearsod to the rrroducer-borroe-.ers and.
their assigns aboit 2,550,000 bales of Ican--st-ck cotton. St-cks of
Governmen-.-fina.cedo spot cotton at 6-rmontr intervals c6-ring tle last years
are sho-n b-l)---.


: Cotton option Connodity :
Date and : Credit Corporation : Total
: producers' pool : loans
Bales Bles BEl s
End of nonth:
1934
July ....: 1,890,550 1,111,669 3, 02,21?
1935
Jan. ....: 1,469,833 4,061,211 5,531, 9
July ... : 62,8546 49459,520 5 0,-t
1936
Jan. ....: 617,267 4,47a,126 5, ,39
July ....: 119 3,237,015 3,3 7,13
1937
Jan. ....: 3,0 0, n 'n ,-, '
Mar. .... : 1, S 5n,, 00 '


__







CS-6


The first nne nillion bales of spot cotton released frnn the loan
stock bet-een April 18 and June 1, 193~, were at a minimum base price of
11.25 cents for nid.dling 7/8, but thE.y r-ette the C-rporation a little
more thar. this. The next 400,000 bales "-.re released bet-een June 27
dnd July 20, 1936, at a mininun base price 7of 12.25 cents, the average
price actually received being smnerhat lhiLe-r. The 1,150,000 bales re-
leased in Fe.bruary and March this year "ere to be sold at a rinimun base
price of 12.75 cents but the average received by the Cr-.iodity Credit
Corporation f-r cotton disposed of during the t-.- months rrnbably averaged
approximately 13.50 cents.

The fact that the supply of "frec" American cotton in trade channels
has been aug-nented by the disposal of this large quantity of Government-
financed cotton has contributed t:' the record hi,.h level of cotten consurp-
tion in the United States and has kept exp-rts and foreign consumption -f
American fron being as small as would other-isc have been the case. On
the other hand the very brisk demand of the Am:erican c-tt'n industry for
American cotton and the hi-lh level of nill activity and consumption of all
kinds of cotton in foreign countries have been responsible for the release
cf such large quantities of loan cotton at the terns prescribed by the
Conrodity Credit Corporation.

As -was pointed out in The Cotton Situation for March, sales of
loan cotton -ere stinulatcd t- an innortant degree during. February and
March by the facts that (1) the release prices on any given day are based on
the 10-narket average price for Middling spot on the previous day and that
(2) the market 7na advancing during a large part cf that period. The rate
at -hich loan cotton has been released has slackened considerably since
April 1. Fron April 1 to April 22, inclusive, only 93,000 bales :7wre re-
leased. This recent slackening in the rate of rncvc-.et -ay be due to several
fanct-rs, including an increase in nill stocks in this country, a growing
scarcity of des'ira.ble qualities to be found in the lo:-n stock, and declining
prices bet-'en Arril 1 and April 22.


EXPORTS FROM UNITED STATES IN MARCH ABOVE YLER EARLIER

Domestic exoorts of cotton from the United States were 468,000 bales
in March or 16 percent larger than in March 1936. But with the exception
of Inst year and the year before, exports -ere smaller t;i.r in the correspond-
ing nonth in any year since 1923-24.


- 4 -






5-

Exports from the Unite. States, specifie- periods,
nver-:.e 1924-33, annual 1929-37


8 unnths Totnl for
Year : I:.rch : ended ::.rch 12 rn;-ths er.ced
: : : J.ily 21
b: unninr- bsles : Rn.nin b les : s.nnin-" toles

Av. 1924-33 : 66,900 5,323,300 7,830,200

1929 556,000 5,74.6, 100 ,0~-1.?, C'C
1930 477,700 5,770,300 3,3,00
1931 605,500 5.517,200 6,7'9,900
1932 927,100 6,85,400 3,70?,500
1933 48 ,000 6,034,700 8, 19,00
1934 1 550,100 6,095,000 7,574, (0
1935 317,300 3,572,000 4,7R,500
1936 404,700 4,814,400 5, ,2,60
1937 4: 67,700 4,392,200


Ex-rorts in
the corresnondin-


the 2-mnnth neriodi en-cl :>-rch were 9 percent less the:i in
neri..2. lpst season. Should ex-orts .urin the rec..i:..er of


the present ye!r m.intnin the marked irnrcve.:-ant shown in Fe&ruL-ry -.n'. .'.-rch,
eroorts in 1936-37 ':ill 'e -nrorximatel; the s.:.e as in 13- 33. Tr-:'.c reports
for the first half of Anril, hj--evor, inr.icnte t.i.t the i..nrnve-ent sAY.1'/. in
Febr-u.ry, and ::-rch may not be maint-ineC. in Aoril.

..EXIORTS .2OM 01OPREIGN COUNTRIES ?EAV-

Zxr.orts from In.dia in ?ebrurr-.- -.ucuntcC. to 371,500 -'-lcs of *- -:cu.ds
corni-red .ith 419,400 b.ales in Fe'ru-.ry 1936 nr.d r.n .-.vr-r e of 230,& ic. the
10 re.-rs oened. 1932-37-. In the 7-r.mth n-rio: cn..ed with rFe':rirr', cx--.r.ts
totalin. 1,i30,200 't-les rere 29 percent Inr-r th1.n the c-rres-on:'i.. erioc
last .ear, alcut the so..,c norcont--e la.r-er thi.n the 10-'yoCr .ver-. c, an.- t.e
lar-est for the period. n record .rith the e::ce-n-tion of 1970-31.

Exoorts of cotton front E ryt continuei- to run -it recor..-.rc.:i.: lEvels
*..'ith shir.-.cnts to 11 countries nr..ountin,.- to 213,600 .-les i: Fel"r'..-'r-. r i..
172,700 brles in -trch, -n increase of 63 -"ercent 'n.n-. 54 nerceit,resccttvely,
over t.e corres-.on'.in, months .- ye.r earlier. Exnorts of 1,43. n -."lec ir.
the .onths en..e-. '-rch constitute record hi. h f,-.r the Deri '.







- 6 -


TIH TEXTILE SITUATION

Domestic :.:ill activity continues hi h :..ili slcs r-op off in recent weeks

Domestic cotton consunmtion in March wps the hi hst for any month on
recorJ., ancruntini, to 779,000 b'les. In the 8-;onth period en2ed L-.rch,
-doimestic ~ills consumed 5,292,0030 'les which was 'the largest consurntion for
the period in history. In the latter half of I:arch and the first 3 weeks of
April mill sales of .oods -,ere report. to have becn matcriall- less than
current output. The volume of unfilled orders held 'y mills, however, has been
very l.r-e enf mil-1 activity h-s Teen g-enerally- vell maintained, even though
9-ctivity may have ,ieclinnC. slightly in the first half of A-ril. Any decline
which .na;. have occ-urred is renorto. to have ':een the result of an inau.-uration
of a 40-hour weel: in some mills.

Increases in joods prices in bMarch acccmnanief the rise in cotton
prices so tht mill margins (based on 17 constructions of Lra, cloth) for the
month, as a whole, remained ver;' high. The avers-e for M:arch r7as 17.84 cents
co.nprocd Lwith 17.86 in Febriury, and with 12.73 cents in ":arch 1936. The fell
in raw cotton -rices since Anril 1 has raised :.iarins hi'hpr since cloth prices
n1 en.ey
dii. not decline proportionately. The averp e wlas 18.227or the w'eek ended
April 9 and 18.63 cents for the wee-k ended AIril 16.

Eur- mern r.ills active but cotton O-ns',untion still below 1929 level /

while e mill ccnsr.--ttion of rr.w cotton in Europ is running : .t a higher
level than in recent '..crs it is still 1: nercout 'elow cons'u-ntiorn in 1929.
Tis is due partly to the rracticnl cessation of consu.-jtion in Spain and
nartly to the s-Oistitati.n of s;,nthetic fibers for cotton in Gcr.ni.y and
It.ly. :.ill activity is therefore 7orororti-'natel' hi.hor than cotton con-
s'-iT.;tion in those trao countries. Ho--ever, the lol-er ccnsunption of all cotton
co.T.'arc' "'ith 1929 is 7lsc -nartly i.ue to -n .ll-arcunc. 10-or level of mill
activity C.nrc cotton utilization than in 1929, especially on the Continent.
.-ile .'oncstic de.-.I.n- for cotton ,.ooas r.-nos fro-" f-ir to exce-tionally good
in :.lost countries, in all cases the export trr'.e is much s-aller than in the
/e-rs just -prccefin th-e :orl:. '.e-ression. The record hich level of world d
consumn::tion of 11 cotton is result of the very active c3nfition -f the
cotton industries in the United St-tes ?nd i. Oriental countries.

United Kin'dorn The outstanding .evelonr.ient in the cotton industry in
the United Kin -3.om furinj .:,rch v;sE a rnpi' increase in ..ill takin;s of
Indirn.. cotton to c level .lmo.st eaurl to mill trecin.'s of American cotton.
The -rice of Indian relative to A-.ieric~n during: ; :rch v,%' such as to favor the
consu t:tion of Indian. Since the first of i. ust 1936, mill talcin-s of both
India1nn and. razili-n cotton have sho-r considerable increase, while t-lcings
of -.:erican cotton have declined.

I Prc-?rreL. rartly- from a report front A: ricultural Attachd Lloyd V. Steere,
Berlin, under d-.te of Anril 9, 1937.


0 S-








- 7 -


CS-6


The high level of activity in British cotton mills continued to rest
mainly on domestic demo~d. The number of workers employed in HIarch was
larger than in any month in recent years. Domestic retail sales of cotton
textiles continue to show a fc.vorable trend. Higner prices for yarn and
cloth undoubtedly have tended to check the export trade. In February,
exports of piece goods amounted to 164,400,000 scrure yards compared with
169,500,000 square yards in the corresponding month a year earlier. In
March, however, exports of 178,600,000 square yards were larger than
shipments in March 1936.

Germany Activity in the Germ-n cotton textile mills continued
relatively high during March, although supplies of raw materi-ls, bcth
cotton and synthetic fibers, were not large enough to meet mill needs
during part of the month. Supplies of raw cotton in the country are still
very small and the manufacturing quotas fixed by the Supervisory Office
have not been fully covered by the raw material allotments. It is re-
ported that there is a constant increase in the utilization of rayon staple
-fiber.

A recent survey of the German Institute for Business Research
indicates that German production of staple fiber rose from 33,200 bales
of 478 pounds in 1934 to 71,950 bales in 1935 and 207,550 bales in 1536.
For the year 1937 the Institute expects a production of from 323,000 to
346,000 bales which at the present level of consumption would be the
equivalent of between 8 and 9 percent of all textile raw materials used in
Germany, excluding reclaimed material. It would amount to more than 2C
percent of German raw cotton consumption in the years just preceding 1934.
The completion of additional factory capacity now under construction ;rill
apparently almost double German productive capacity for staple fiber.

Until recently, German cotton mills have been considerably
handicapped by the price regulations promulgated last fall which prohibited
any further increase in the price of cotton goods regardless of the r.ove-
ment of manufacturing costs. No allowance was made for changes in the
price of imported raw materials. This situation has been remedied by; the
special permission of the Price Commissioner authorizing domestic prices
of textiles to be increased by an amount necessitated by increases in the
price of raw materials.

Czechoslovakia Conditions in the. Cztcho5'ovnJkian cotton textile
industry showed further improvement in March and it is reported :!-t, despite
considerable variation between mills, employment in the cotton textile indus-
try as whole was at a high level. A considerable volume of new r:'ders w:s
booked for the domestic market, and export devte moments were co pnr::tively
favorable. Indicative of the high degree of activity in the textile industry
as a whole in the fact that cotton consumption by textile rilis ir Feb: n-ry
1937 w:;s 35 percent greater than in Feb:-ury 1 i3. Ti.i- afpli.t to ..L
textile mills taken together and not merely cotton mills.








Cs-6


- 8 -


Austria Cotton spinning nill activity in Austria was still running
at about 10 perrcernt above single shift capacity, or slirgtly below a year
earlier. The Austrian export trad,- in c'tt"n-yarn ",-s adversely affected in
March as a result of a slackenir.,:: -f business wit-. Rum.ania which has a new
trade agreent -:ith Italy providing fr-r t;h.. exchange of Runanian crude oil
for Italian cotton yarn. Another factor unfavorable to the export trade
was the rise in the price of cotton go'ds as a result of the operation of
a cotton weavers' cartel. In general, ho-ever, the Austrian cotton textile
industry is in a fairly ood p-osition; ani prospects sean very satisfactory
unless Rumania, which takes about 80 percent of all Austrian cotton yarn
exrcrts, should drastically and permanently curtail her dem-iand for Austrian
yarn.

France Conditions in the French cotton textile industry are
relatively favorable and cotton spinners as well as weavers are well occupied.
N-.7 business was of satisfactory volume during the nonthl of March and it
sens likely that the present rate of mill activity will be maintained for
so-e tine t. cone as the unfilled orders on hand are sufficient to engage
the nills at the current high rate of occupation for several months ahead.

Italy The accelerated activity -f the Italian cotton industry, as
evidenced durin-; the first t-wo monrT,s -,f 1937, was continued throughout
March. Since manufacturers' sup ,lies of rn:- cotton depend rn their cxprts
of yarns and piece goo-ds, mills are favoring the export trade; as a 1'esult,
domestic demand fnr cot tn ani. substitute textiles is nnt being fully
satisfied. Prices actually -aid b2 consumers have riser considerably,
presumably much beyond the increa'.ses nalthorized on Marcl- 5, 1937, 7hich
permitted an increase in retail prices for c tt-n textiles of 12 percent
compared with Sep.torber 1936. A -'rice increase of 10 percent was authorized
for artificial fibers.

Favorable export business, especially -ith countries with which
Italy has barter and clearin-, arrangements, and a resultant hi h level of
mill activity hav2 necessitated a considerable increase in the inmortation
of raw cotton. Inyorts in Ja.nun-ri and February .were 40 percent larger
than in the sane ncnths in 1936. American cotton represented 6c, percent
of total cotton imports.

Jaianese arnd Chinese consuriptinn hi,-h Jaianese imports of Anerican
cottc.- increase iJ

Janan Innorts of all cotton in March totaled 522,000 bales com-
pared with 334,000 in March 1936. Tiis large increase compared :ith the
'orresp-.nding nonth a year earlier resulted mainly from the very large
imports of America.n, which amounted to 205,000 bales. Imports of American
cotton were three tines as large as in February and nearly twice as large as
in Harch 1936. Imrorts of othcr kinds of cntton in- I-Iarc also were larger tha

j Prepared largely from cables received front Ajricultural C-O7issioner
0. L. Dawso:-. at Shanghai ruder date -f A'ril 12 and 20.


_ ---3----~U-il







CS-6


year earlier but "by a much smaller mar-in than was true of Anerican. It is
believe. that these very heavy receipts of American cotton have been a temporary
result of the recent termination of the shipping strike in the United States
which had intcrruoted rmove:-ient from this country. :hurin- 'n.-rch the relaticn-
shin-o bet'-.een t.e -rices of American nn, India.- cotton in J.anan '.-s a';:t the
same as in .e-rlier months .-hen the relationship was such as to encour-.-e the
consumintion of Indian it the ex-oense of A:.3erican. The price of Brazilian cotton
of a ._rae anfd staple c-iparp'ble with American also favors the use of Drazilian
by Japanese s-innors, but there has been so.ne scarcity of desirable qualities
of Brazilian cotton in the Japanese --.rket. In the 7 months ended :arch 1937
imnorts of American into Jrap-n tot!le:' 1,032,000 bales co..oparel :-lith 1,116,OC0
in the corres on.1.inC period a year earlier. On the other han:., i:-ports cf all
cotton amounted to 2,680,000 beles, which w'as 27 percent cmre than last season.

The i:nort licensin.- s.,stor, '..'hich places restrictions upon allotments
of foreign exchan e for imports, is rencrted to .-e c2usinL some *iafficulty to
importers of cotton, ;-articulnrly s:.all dealerss, but it is not believed that the
licensing. systc is having a significant effect upon total cotton i.mports. As
a result of the ver. he.vy receipts in "'rch, wharf stocks of all cotton in
Japan on 1:rrch 31 ,amounted to 793,000 b .les cor.:-nreo rith 492,000 -t the er:d. of
Febra-ury, ..nd ;:ith 453,000 on ;:.rch 31, 19 6.

The Government .--s 1:-nned ,'.c-nlin 's in cotton futures or. jJan-nose ...r:ets
on the .rounct that cotton is -. ccin od.it:y cf vital i'nortance to the c:'.-tr;"'s
welf-re r~d. thrt it should not be subject to speculative activity.

Yarn production in ::p.rch '-.ras 325,975 b-les, the l-.rgest yarn out-.-.t for
any :[-rch on record.

China Arrivals of Chinese r.-. cotton at Shanghai .:ere v-ery heavy cI.uring
:-irch, jeinp considerably lar,_er than in Februr'iry :,ni aproxi.n.tely 15 -.crcent
above arrivals in ":rcrh year n -o. In snitc of t.he he.vy arrivals .:f ccttc".,
the -rcr, hi- level of mill ccnrsumtion ke-t stocks frr.:m shovin any increase
as co-xaro.r'. :ith n. :.?nth earlier. Chinese mills are cjntir.uinj to opcr--.te at
full capacity. Increased s-oinning mill equip .cnt in N.nrth Chinr is exrecte( to
co:-.a into o-r-.errtion b. the end of Anril, with a resulting increase in t'.e npr-
Auction -f cotton -nods in th-t rei..


- 9 -







cs-6


- 10 -
I,


The Government is planning an increase in taxes on yarn which will
amo n it to about 10 percent over present rates on counts up to 16; 27 percent
on co.iut.s 17 to 23; 21 percent on counts 24 to 35; and 61 percent on counts
36 and above; although for sor.e special kinds of goods which are 36 count
and: above, the new specific rates will be less than existing ad valorem taxes.
In any event the increased taxes, assuming that they were to be added iLie-
dia.cly and in full to the sale price, would increase present wholesale prices
for the different qualities of yarn by only front .4 of 1 percent to 1.8 per-
cent. It is not believed that cotton consumption will be i-7atrially affected.

Prices of Chinese cotton during March and April tended to move with
the prices of cotton in world markets, and exports of Chinese cotton continue
to be sLiail.


ACREAGE, PRODUCTION, ;,AND CROP CONDITIONS

United States It is reported by the New York Cotton Exchango Service
that fertilizer tag sales in cotton growing States fro.i Dece.iber to March con-
firned beliefs already held in fertilizer trade circles that the cotton crop
now being planted vill be better fertilized than any previous crop since that
of 1930. The Exchange Service estimates that 1,640,000 tons of fertilizer will
be used on cotton this season compared with 1,312,000 tons last year. It is
believed that there will be an increase both in the acreage fertilized and in
the fertilizer applied per acre. It also is reported by the trade that the
scarcity of work stock in the-South is being offset to a considerable extent
by an increased use of tractors. This is especially true in the western part
of the Belt.

During the past few weeks weather in the Cotton Belt was rather un-
favorable to the new crop because of subnorial temperatures during much of
the period and an absence of rain over :.ost of Texas and Oklahoma, according
to the Exchange Service. The quarterly report of the Department of Agri-
culture which shows the farA labor situation on April 1 bears out the January
report in showing that in the Southern States the supply of labor is smaller
and farer wage rates considerably higher than last year.

India The final estimate of the Indian Government places the Indian
cotton area for 1936-37 at 25,219,'00 acres and production at 5,278,000 bales
co-.pared with 25,999,000 acres and 4,965,000 bales in 1935-36. In the 10
years ended 1932-33 cotton acreage averaged 24,761,000 acres and the average
production ar.ounted to 4,466,000 bales.

Egypt Ginnings of all varieties including Scarto up to April 1 totaled
1,860,009 bales, an increase of 11 percent over innings to the corresponding
date last year. Ginnings of Sakellaridis continued to run nuch below last
year.


__I I








- 11 -


China It was pointed out in The Cotton Situation for March that last
season's large crop and the comparatively high prices received by frrners for
their cotton would tend to result in -.n increase in the 1937-38 cotton acreage.
This sees more likely now than a i-onth ago because of the occurrence of rains
during the past month in some parts of the cotton area in northern China. 'while
some sections still require additional moisture for the planting and early growth
of the crop, on the whole the L..oisture deficiency is reported to be less serious
than formerly. In the neantiz:e weather conditions in the Yangtze Valley con-
tinue to be favorable to the planting of a larger acreage in 1937 than in 1936.

Brazil The first estimate of the cotton crop of southern Brazil for
1936-37 is for an output of 1,201,000 bales. Production in 1935-36 amounted
to 939,000 bales, 1934-35 to 576,000, and in the 10 years ended 1932-33 averaged
only 107,000 bales. The third estimate of production in the northern States of
Brazil places output at 607,000 bales coLpared with 826,000 in 1935-3o, 782,000
in 1934-35, and the 10-year average of 423,000 bales. On the basis of these
present estimates, total production of cotton in Brazil in the 1936-37 season
will be 1,808,000 bales, or slightly larger than production of 1,765,000 in
1935-36b In the 10 years ended 1932-33, Brazilian cotton production averaged
only 530,000 bales.

While the crop in the northern States is now estimated to be about one-
fourth smallcr th-n last season, the increase of 270,000 bales or 28 percent
of the crop in the southern States Lore than offsets the decrease in the North.
Apparently, this season is seeing a continuance of the pronounced tendency of
the last few years for southern Brazil to increase in importance as a cotton
growing area relative to the northern States. In the Sao Paulo area, cotton
is approaching a position where it will soon rival or surpass coffee as the
principal source of agricultur-l incoace. Froz., the point of view of gross value,
coffee is still considerably ahead of cotton but the actual gross inco::e of
farmers from the present cotton crop proi.;iscs to be not r.ch below the income
from coffee. The latter co:..odity is subject to he-vy State and Federal coffee
taxes while cotton is free of taxes except a sales tax which also applies to
coffee. Indicative of theincreased ir;portunce of Brazilian cotton in world
markets was the announce..cnt by the Liverpool Cotton Exchange that from February 1
onward it would iaccopt the Brazilian classification of cotton.




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