The Cotton situation

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Title:
The Cotton situation
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economic Research Service
United States -- Agricultural Marketing Service
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Publisher:
Economic Research Service, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture.
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
five no. a year
bimonthly[ former may 1961-]
irregular[ former 1945/46-mar. 1961]
monthly[ former 1936-1944]
quarterly
completely irregular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Cotton trade -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )

Notes

Dates or Sequential Designation:
CS-1 (Nov. 1936) -
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Nov. 1936-Apr. 1975.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
Ceased publication in Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issued by: U.S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 1936-Oct. 1953; by: Agricultural Marketing Service, Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961; by: Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, May 1961-Apr. 1975.
Issuing Body:
Issues for 1936-Oct. 1953 published by the U. S. Bureau of Agricultural Economics; Nov. 1953-Mar. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; May 1961-Apr. 1975 by the Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 020142316
oclc - 01768374
lccn - 63045282
Classification:
lcc - HD9070.1 .C78
System ID:
AA00013000:00002

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Full Text

,0 UIJITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Was.-ington

CS-2 December 1936
L f 'I 1/ "' : L j 7,
,-- ME-M3T- THE COTTON: SITUATION


Summary
c PC ITOPY

World cotton mill activity continued to be comparatively high during

November and early December. In the United States, activity was especially

high in comparison with most similar periods in recent years. This was

also true to a considerable extent in the United Kingdom, Japan, China,

and in some of the other leading cotton-consuming countries. In Germany

and to a lesser degree in Italy, mill activity is being maintained it a

fairly high level but only by the use of increasingly large quantities of

rayon staple fiber as a substitute for cotton. While present conditions

indicate that consumption of all kinds of cotton will be very high in the

1936-37 season as a whole, and while consumption of Amnerican cotton is

being maintained by the very large consumption in the United States,

foreign mills so far this season have used American cotton at a consider-

ably slower rate and foreign cotton ht a materially higher rate than in

the first 4 months (August November) of the past marketing year.

Cotton prices were steady during November but rose sharply in the

first half of December. The average price for the month of November was

12.06 cents a pound compared with 12,07 cents in October and 11.77 in

November of last season. The average for the weeks ended Docombdr 12, 19,

and 26, were 12.61, 12.65, and 12.61 cents respectively.

Dominant price-strengthening factors hwve continued to be the high

level of domestic cotton consumption and the relatively small supply of

American cotton in trade channels. .Announcements of the 1937 .Lrricultur:l.

Conservation Progrqm for the South and reports of smaller crops in India
and Brazil than at first had boon anticipated,also have strengthunud prices.






CS-2


The December 1 estimate of the Crop Reporting Board placed the 1936

production in the United States at 12,407,000 bales compared with the

1'ovember estimate of 12,400,000 and an actual production of 10,638,000

bales in 1935.

Exports of American cotton declined sharply in November, amounting

to 690,000 running bales compared with 1,135,000 bales in November 1935.

Exports of 2,303,000 bales for the 4 months, August to November, were

11 percent less than in the corresponding period last year.

Although the Indian cotton crop is believed to have been reduced

by unfavorable weather, and the second.estimate of output in northern

Brazil is for a crop considerably smaller than originally forecast, the

estimate of a world production in 1936-37 of 29,900,000 bales is not

being revised downward. Preliminary indications point to a cotton acreage

in southern Brazil much larger than in 1935-36, and reports thus far

received from Russia and from the smaller producing countries, mainly

Argentina, Uganda and M.xico, forecast a higher level of production for

these countries than was originally used in making the present estimate

of total world production. This season's crop in Egypt is estimated

at a record high of 1,957,000 bales.


Domestic Prices Comparativoly Stoady in November but Rose
Sharply in First Half of December

The price of Middling spot cotton at the 10 markets averaged 12.06
cents in November compared with 12.07 cents in October and 11.77 cents in
November 1935.' The high for the month was 12.21 cents on November 30
and the low 11.91 cents on November 2. The averages for the weeks ended
December 12, 19, and 26 were 12.61, 12.65, and 12.61 cents respectively.

The very high level of domestic cotton consumption and a small
supply of cotton in trade channels in the United States continue to be
important price-strengthening factors. Announcements relative to the
Agricultural Conservation Program for 1937 and reports that the 1936-37
cotton crop in India and Brazil may be smaller than was indicated by earlier


-2-






CS-2


-3-


estimates also apparently have contributed to the buoyancy of prices.
The prices of Indian, Egyptian, and Brazilian cotton at Liverpool, expressed
as a percentage of American, strengthened slightly in November as compared
with October but remained such as to encourage foreign growths at the
expense of American.


United States Exoorts Decline Sharply

Exports of cotton from the United States amounted to 690,0J0
running bales in November compared with 1,135,000 bales in November 1935.
Shipments in the 3 months, August to October, were somewhat above the total
for the corresponding months in 1935 but the very sharp decline during
the month of November made total exports for the first 4 months of this
season only 2,303,000 bales compared with 2,575,000 last year, a decline
of 11 percent. In November, smaller quantities of cotton were shipped to
all important foreign markets as compared with November 1935. The United
Kingdom and France took 122,000 and 81,000 bales, respectively, or just
about half the volume exported to each of these nmrkets last year. Japan
and Germany took 221,000 and 86,00J bales, respectively, compared with
286,000 and 137,000 respectively, in November 1935.

Exports from India in October were 114,700 bales, or 22 percent
less than the corresponding month in 1935. Total exports for the period,
August to October, however, were 378,200 bales compared with 355,500 last
season and the average of 395,800 bales for the 10 years ended 1932-33.
The bulk of the Indian crop does not start moving into trade channels
until December and exports are usually at their highest in January,
February and March. In the first 3 months of this season, as compared
with last season, exports have been larger to Japan, France, Italy, and
Belgium, and smaller to the United Kingdoa, Gernany and China.

Exports from Egypt to all countries ar.ounted to 197,000 bales in
October and 220,000 bales in November compared with 271,000 and 269,000
in the corresponding months of 1935. Exports for the season to date
totaled 556,400 bales, a decrease of 19 percent from exports in the
corresponding 4 months of last year but are 14 percent higher than average
shipments in the corresponding period for the 10 yoars ended 1932-'3.
Decreased exports to Germany, France and Italy accounted for ..ost of the
decline in the total.







CS-2


The Textile Situation

World mills active foreign. consumption of American lags

Mill activity and cotton consumption throughout the world as a
whole during the month of November continued to bear out the prediction
made in the November issue of the Cotton Situation to the effect that
the 1936-37 season will see a large consumption of all kinds of cotton.
It scems likely, in the absence of unfavorable developments in political
and economic conditions, that world consumption will surpass the record
high level of 1935-36. Cotton is being used at a high rate in nearly
all of the major cotton consuming countries, especially in United States,
Japan, United Kingdom, China, and India. In addition, there has been
a moderate amount of improvement in the textile situation in the former
"gold bloc" countries. The ,present situation indicates that these
conditions probably will .iore than offset the tendency to replace larger
quantities of cotton with substitute fibers in Germany and Italy and the
possibility of static conditions or moderately unfavorable developments
in less important cotton consuming areas.

The outlook for foreign utilization of American cotton, however,
is r-Ather unfavorable as compared with last season. In foreign countries
as a whole, consumption of American cotton has been considerably smaller
and consumption of foreign cotton materially larger s far this season
than in the corresponding months last year. It seems likely that
larger supplies of foreign cotton, increased output of synthetic fibers,
and the continued shortage of foreign exchange in some countries, together
with barter arrangements for the purchase of foreign cotton, will result
in decreased consumption of American cotton in foreign countries in 1936-37
as compared with 1935-36. This decrease will tend to offset the expected
increase in consur:ption in the United States.


Domestic consul optionn and mill margins show further improvement

The domestic cotton textile industry continues to be very active.
Bookings of new cloth orders by mills were smaller in the last half of
November and early December than in the weeks immediately preceding, and
in unfinished goods new orders probably fell a little short of production,
according to the New York Cotton Exchange Service. .However, mills
possess such a large volume of unfilled orders that they are having to run
at an extremely high rate in order to fill the deliveries specified in
existing sale contracts. Mill activity was higher in Noveober than in
October, and mill margins (the difference between the estimated vrlue of
cloth obtainable from a pound of cotton and the market price of raw cotton)
were considerably wider as the result of a further strengthening of cloth
prices. Margins (based on 17 constructions of grey cloth) were 16.60 cents
in November compared with 14.88 in October. This represents the sixth
consecutive month in which the margin has averaged higher than that of
the preceding month. Cotton consu...ption in November was 627,000 bales
compared with 512,000 bales in November of last season. Consumption in the
4 months, August to November, totaled 2,477,000 bales, an increase of
29 percent over consumption in the corresponding period a year earlier.






CS-2


European mills busy 1/

Favorable developments in the cotton textile situation in the United
Kingdom, France and Italy notwithstanding some dark spots in the outlook,
largely unchanged conditions in Central Europe, and the persistence of raw
material scarcity in the otherwise still active German mills marked the
European cotton industry in November.

British developments in the export field as well as domestic
trading in cotton textile products were described as favorable, and mill
activity expanded. Actual and impending increases in wages and other
costs in production appear, however, to be of considerable concern to the
British industry, especially in its bearing on the export outlook.
French conditions have shown further improvement, with the domestic as
well as the export position clearly profiting from devaluation.

Increased activity also was reported in the Italian cotton trade
and in the industry manufacturing for export. The Italian cotton
industry has made aggressive and strenuous efforts to regain its exports
of cotton goods, and, aided by the lira devaluation and the new cotton
allotment plan, apparently has been fairly successful thus far. For the
home market, however, only very little raw cotton is being made available,
substitute fibers playing the dominant role in supplying domestic needs.
The Italian success in regaining some of its outlets in southeastern
Europe has somewhat impaired the export business of Czechoslovakia and
Austria in those markets. Otherwise the cotton mill situation in
Czechoslovakia has improved, and in Austria it has held at favorable levels.

In Germany, the shortage of natural raw. materials has continued,
yet the current sale of finished textiles has remained satisfactory. It
is evident that steadily increasing utilization of substitute fibers is
the means by which the activity of th- mills is being sustained at high
levels.

Raw cotton buying by western European countries remained fairly
favorable in November. Exchange restrictions continued to be hampering
in Germany and Italy. However, the new cotton allotment plan for 1936-37
in Italy has tended to increase substantially both current buying and the
arrivals of raw cotton. Austrian and Czechoslovak purchases were
of fair volume, though somewhat hamperod in the latter country by
difficulties in obtaining for-ign exchange.

The stocks of cotton at European ports showed their usual seasonal
tendency to rise in November, but rose moro this year than list yoer, *.nd
are now well above figures of November 1935, particularly at British ports.
The outstanding increases as compared with last year are in the stocks of
Brazilian cotton held at British ports and in American cotton at
continental ports, though all staples except Egyptiar. are substantially
higher in Groat Britain.


V/ Prepared largely from a report fro Lloyd V. Stecre, Agricultur1l
Attache, at Berlin,





CS-2


United Kingdom.- A fairly large volume of business was done
during November, in both yarn and cloth in the United Kingdom. The
enhanced level of demand resulted partly from accoleratud retail
turnover, and parLy from improved exports and larger wholesale
buying on account of actual and impending price increases. Lancashire
spinners apparently operated at about 90 percent of their present day
normal; many of the mills were on full time and order books fairly well
filled beyond the first of the n-w year.

The outlook in Lancashire is viewed, however, with some uneasiness
because of the recent increo:se in important cost items, such as wages
to weavers ind co-l prices, and because of the possibility that wages to
spinners may also have to be raised. The possible effects of these
increases in production costs upon Lancashire's ability to maintain its
exports of yarns and, more particularly, of piece-goods, are the cause
of considerable concern. It thus remains to be seen whether the recent
pick-up can be sustained, at least to the extent that it rests on better
export dem.nd.

Mill activity in the Lancashire cotton industry lagged in October,
but has improved recently following n November revival in new orders.
The number of cotton textilc/ employed in mid-October, however,was
slightly less than in September and also slightly less than in any recent
year, excepting 1934. The decline, as com ared with previous years,
was uost noticeable in the weaving branch of the industry. During November,
the trade has shown, at least temporarily, increased strength as a result
of favorable develcpmcnts in both domestic and export conditions. The
most encouraging factor in the situation is the fact that industrial
activity in Grcat Britain continues to improve with corresponding decreases
in unemployment.

There was a marked improvement in the exportation of cotton piece-
goods and yarns in October, as compared with Sept,-mber, amounting to
16 percent in the case of piece-goods, and 11 percent in the case of yarns.
All types of piece-goods shared in the expanded trade, bringing the
October total above the corresponding figures of any recent year. This is
an unexpectedly favorable showing and would mean much to the English
cotton industry if it should be maintained. To some extent the pick-up is
related to reviving world tradL and is therefore encouraging. But it is
also partly due to price and seasonal factors and therefore is probably
temporary, especirLly in the face of current prospects of increased
production costs in England.

The accumulated exports of cotton piece-goods for the first 10 months
of 1936 were still 10,000,000 pounds, by weight, less than in January -
October 1935. On the other hand, exports of yarns were 3,000,000 pounds
greater than last year.

Germany.- Little change was noted in the German cotton textile
situation during November, with the shortage of raw cotton tending to become
more acute. Most of the cotton goods now produced are mixtures of cotton
and staple fiber, and the point has been reached where spinners may be said
to be willingly using large quantities of staple fiber. Cotton stocks in
the country are reported very low, and incoming supplies of cotton spinning
material continue much below last year and 3 years ago, though they are
somewhat above the very low figures of 2 years ago.


-6-







The most important single source of German imports of raw cotton from
August to October was Brazil, as was the case in the first several months
of 1935-36; second in importance was Peru (for seasonal reasons), while
last year United States cotton occupied second place.

German imports of raw cotton, by countries


: Aug. Oct.
Country : 1934 : 1935 : 1936
: 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bales 1/ bales 1/ bales 1/

United States ..: 143 88 32
Brazil .........: 9 106 60
Peru ...........: 18 51 42
India ...........: 18 32 28
Egypt .......... 28 37 28
Others .........: 24 83 41

Total ........: 240 397 231
-/ Bales of 478 pounds.


An important development has been the recent price decree prohibiting
any increase in +3xtile prices above the levels of December 1, 1936. Selling
prices, as the decree now stands, cannot be raised even if important items
in production costs should increase. What repercussions this measure will
have upon the trade in textiles and upon the hitherto favorable development
of earnings in the German cotton textile industry cannot be foreseen, but
it seems certain that a modification of the decree will take place if there
should be any material advance in raw material costs.

Czechoslovakia.-Developments have continued to be on the favorable
side, as a whole, in the Czechoslovak .otton textile industry during November,
as a result of large orders placed by wholesalers in anticipation of price
increases following devaluation. These are said to have enabled increased
occupation in the mills, notwithstanding a renewed export offensive of the
Italian cotton industry in southeastern Europe which is said to be having
noticeable repercussions upon Czechoslovak business in that area.

Austria.- Austraian cotton mill export business to southeastern Europe,
like that of Czechoslovakia, is reported to be suffering somewhat from a
renewal of Italian export competition. Otherwise, the situation in the
cotton mills may be described as fairly favorable. The long-planned weavers'
cartel is reported to have been practically concluded, and some revisions
in existing prides may be expected.

France.- Encouraging reports on the development of business in the
Trench cotton textile industry continue to be received. The margins on
which the mills operate are now indicated to be satisfactory, and unfilled
orders on hand are of considerable volume. The expanding wave of economic
activity in the country incident to devaluation and a liberal credit policy
is being more and more strongly felt in the domestic wholesale demand for
textiles, .and the export position has strengthened as well.


- 7 -


CS-2





CS-2 8-

Italy.- Increased activity in the Italian cotton trade as well as
in the cotton mills has resulted from the stimulus provided by the
devaluation of the lira, coupled with the new cotton regulations for
1936-37,as announced on October 16 and reported in last month's issue of
the Cotton Situation. Cotton buying and cotton arrivals, though still
basically low, have increased substantially, and exports and exports sales
of cotton goods have risen. Mill occupation has been stepped up as a
result. It would appear that the devaluation of the lira proved something
of a life-saver to holders of the large stocks of overvalued cotton goods
on hand a short time ago, enabling these stocks to be moved readily into
export and home channels without loss.

Production of cotton materials for domestic purposes, on the other
hand, has been lagging, since the very small quota of raw cotton allotted
for this purpose was not apportioned until December. As a result, spindles
and looms occupied for the domestic market have been using, almost exclusively,
substitute materials such as staple fiber, cottdnized hemp, pure silk,
cotton waste and mixtures, with almost no consideration being given to
quality. Since the only possibility of increasing raw cotton supplies for
the mills producing for the domestic market is through an increase in the
exportation of cotton goods, strenuous efforts are being made by most of
the Italian cotton establishments to expand their export business, or to
get into additional export activities. One of the results has been an
appreciable increase in exports of cotton materials from Italy. Spinner
stocks.of raw cotton, however, are thought to be practically exhausted, so
that continued success in regaining export markets may well result in a
substantially increased movement of raw cotton to Italy.

Mill activity and cotton consumption continue high in Japan and China 2/

Japan.- In October imports into Japan of all growths other than
American and Indian, were the largest for any month on record. Imports
of Brazilian were especially high. Imports of all kinds of cotton were
199,000 bales in October or 33 percent above those in October 1935. Imports
in the 3 months, August to October, were approximately 716,000 bales or 50
percent larger than in the corresponding months last season.

Imports of American cotton of 47,000 bales were nearly twice as large
as in September but were 75 percent as large in October 1935. Imports
of Indian cotton, amounting to 73,000 bales/'f all others, except American,
of 79,000 bales, were roughly one-third larger than and twice as large,
respectively, as in the corresponding month last year. It is now certain
that all heavy consignments of Brazilian cotton have reached Japan and
undoubtedly imports will be relatively small up until next summer when
the new crop from southern Brazil will commence to move into trade channels.
Comparatively large exports from the United States to Japan in October and
November, especially in October, indicated that Japanese imports of American
cotton will show further improvement in the next 2 or 3 months. New crop
Chinese cotton was beginning to appear in the Japanese market in October,
but it is doubtful if the price of Chinese will decline sufficiently to
permit Japan to Import as large a quantity as was anticipated a few months
ago.

2/ Prepared largely from cables from Agricultural Commissioner Dawson at
Shanghai, under date of December 3,5,.and 14.





CS-2 9 -

Mill takings of all kinds of cotton in October amounted to 244,000
bales compared with 229,0u0 in October 1935. Takings of American cotton
were only 58,000 bales or two-thirds as large as in the corresponding month
last season. The heavy decline in the takings of dmerican was more than
offset by the increase in each of nearly all of the other growths. Stocks
of all kinds of cotton in Japan on October 31 of 437,000 bales compared with
very small stocks of 178,000 on October 31, 1935. Large increases were
shown in holdings of American, Indian, and all other kinds.

Cloth exports in October were 233,000,000 square yards compared with
234,000,000 in October 1935.

The Japanese Cotton Spinners' Association has recently released the
financial statement of its 68 member mills covering their operations in the
first half of 1936. The combined reports show that a high rate of profit
was maintained although returns were not quite as large as in the second
half of 1935. A high rate of profit has characterized the Japanese industry
*in recent years while many of the mills in other countries have been shut
down or working at a loss.

Yarn production in October and November amounted to 298,000 bales
and 318,000 bales, respectively, compared with 293,000 and 296,000 bales
in the corresponding months last year and was the largest production for
these months on record with the exception of 1934. Even with no change in
the number of working spindles, some increase in yarn production is expected
during the next few months, and this increase will be still larger if the
existing curtailment rate of 26.2 percent in spindle operation is reduced.
Working spindles and installed spindles in October numbered 8,424,000 and
10,992,000, respectively.

China.- Spinners' margins widened during November, in spite of
higher prices for cotton, as a result of a still more rapid increase in yarn
prices. Spinners' margins are now the largest in recent years. _3 The
increase in the price of cotton goods luring November has been attributed
to increased demand resulting from improved economic conditions and to a
belief in some quarters that inflation is in prospect. Stocks of textile
goods in China are very low at the present time.

Arrivals of Chinese cotton at Shanghai showed a moderate decrease
from October but the total for the 2 months, October to November, was 396,564
bales as compared with 238,464 bales in the corresponding period last
season. Deliveries of all kinds of cotton to Shanghai mills totaled
354,000 bales in the 2 months, October and November, or 50 percent more than
in the same period in 1935. Mill consumption increased during November,
although interrupted to some extent by strikes in Japanese mills, but these
labor disturbances are now being settled. Indications are that barring
unforeseen and unpredictable developments the present season will see a
record high cotton consumption.

V/ On December 15 prices of both raw cotton and yarn advanced sharply. It
is reported that the current political and military disturbances were
responsible. It is, of course, impossible to tell what effect the present
condition will have upon the Chinese cotton situation.




S-2 10 -

Estimate of World Production Unchanged Decreased Prospects in Some
Foreign Countries Offset by Increases in Others

World.- The figure of 29,900,000 bales is being retained as the esti-
mate of total world production in 1936-37, although the second estimate of
production in northern Brazil is for a crop about 200,000 bales less than
was reported in the first estimate, and it seems likely that production in
India will be less than was at first forecast by trade sources.

The present world estimate, as made by the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics, involved adding together the prospective production of those
important areas such as the United States, China, Egypt, and northern Brazil
with respect to whose production official estimates or the estimates of
representatives of the Bureau in foreign countries were available. To
this total were added preliminary forecasts of production made by the Bureau
in the light of general information and trade forecasts for countries such
as India and Russia. To this total was added the 1935-36 production for
all those countries for which there was no information or insufficient
information available on which to base any kind of a forecast for 1936-37.
Recently received reports relative to prospective production in southern
Brazil, Argentina, Uganda, and Mexico make it seem likely that actual total
production will be larger than last season in these areas whose prospective
output was taken to be the same as in 1935-36 for the purpose of calculating
the world estimate. In addition, the estimate used for Russia is believed
to have been quite conservative.

United States.- A United States crop of 12,407,000 bales was forecast
by the Crop.Reporting Board of the Bureau, based upon conditions as of
December 1, compared with the November estimate of 12,400,000 bales and an
actual crop of 10,638,000 bales in 1935.

India.- The third official forecast of the 1936-37 Indian acreage
and the first forecast of the crop places the area planted up to December 1
at 23,901,000 acres which is expected to produce a crop of 4,584,000 bales
of 478 pounds net. On the corresponding date last season, area and prospective
output were 24,130,000 acres and 4,479,000 bales, respectively. In the 10
years ended 1932-33, 93.4 percent of the final acreage was planted up to
December 1 and production,forecast at that time, averaged 96 percent of the
final estimate of production. In late October the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics forecast the crop at approximately 5,000,000 bales of 478 pounds
net and an average of forecasts made in October by 5 or 6 of the leading
firms of cotton merchants in India gave a prospective crop somewhat larger
than this. During recent weeks, trade reports have indicated that some damagti
has been done to the maturing crop by unseasonable rains. How extensive
this damage has been is unknown, but trade sources have estimated that the
quantity of the crop would be reduced by from 200,000 to 300,000 bales and
that its quality also would be adversely affected. If the average relation-
ship between the first forecast of production and the final estimate should
prevail this season, the final figure for 1936-37 would be 4,775,000 bales,
or about the same as 1935-36 production of 4,793,000 bales, although trade
reports and the first official production forecast indicates an increase of
100,000 bales or more, over 1935-36.






CS-2


- 11 -


Egypt.-Egyptian production is placed by the second official estimate
at 1,957,000 bales of approximately 478 pounds net. This is a record high,
the largest production in any previous year being 1,777,000 bales in 1933-34.
The crop last year amounted to 1,769,000 bales and the average for the 10
years ended 1933-33 was 1,486,000 bales. Ginnings up to December 1 totaled
1,137,000 bales compared with 1,086,000 bales during the corresponding
period in 1935. Ginnings of Sakellaridis so far this season amounted to
only 64,000 bales compared with 93,000 last year. Innings of all other
varieties, excluding Scarto, were 1,051,000 bales compared with 971,000 last
season.

Brazil.- The second estimate of the cotton crop in northern Brazil is
for an output of 605,000 bales or 221,000 bales leas than tne 1935-36 crop
of 826,000 bales. While this season's crop is expected to be considerably
smaller than that of last year, it is still materially above the 10-year
average. Production in 1934-35 and 1933-34 and, on the average, in the 10
years ended 1932-33 was 782,OCO bales, 483,000, and 423,000 bales, respectively,
If production in 1936-37 in Brazil as a whole, is not to show a decline as
compared with 1935-36, production will have to expand considerably in the
Southern States. The greater part of the planting of the crop in southern
Brazil generally takes place in October. It is reported that the weather
was unusually dry through most of the cotton growing areas of Sao Paulo
during October, and consequently plantings were delayed. It is not known
whether the dry weather has delayed sowing sufficiently to affect total
planting for the season. The Sao Paulo Secretary of riculture, however,
has reported that the distribution of seed to farmers for planting this
season has been 40 percent greater than last season. This-would indicate
that cotton growers intend to plant a considerably larger acreage this season
than last. The crop in southern Brazil last year amounted to 899,0D0 bales
compared with 577,000 in 1934-35 and the 10-year average of 107,000 bales.

Uganda.- Cotton acreage planted up to the end of September was
1,412,000 acres or 24 percent more than the area planted in the same period
last season. Production is estimated at approximately 300,000 bales of
478 pounds. The 1935-36 crop was 266,000 bales and the output averaged
171,400 bales in the 5-year period 1928-29 to 1932-33.

Mexico.-The first estimate of Mexican production in the 1936-37
season is for a crop of 359,000 bales from 755,000 acres. Last year, area
and production amounted to 599,000 acres and 251,000 bales, respectively.
The indicated yield per acre is 227.5 pounds which is larger than the 1935-36
yield but smaller than that of most recent seasons. The trend of yields
per acre in Mexico has been downward. During the period 1909-10 to 1913-14,
yields averaged 353 pounds per acre as compared with 263 pounds from 1929-30
to 1933-34. In most years, Mexico consumes 75 percent or more of her cotton
production, but-if the 1936 crop is as large as anticipated there will
probably be a considerable surplus available for export.

















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