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BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
MEAT ANIMALS: CASH FARM INCOME.AND INDEX NUMBERS OF
PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS, UNITED STATES, 1909-42
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940
u 5 DEiPATMENT OF AGRICULTURE
NEG. 38409 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
CASH FARM INCOME FROM MEAT ANIMALS IN 1942 IS EXPECTED TO EQUAL OR
EXCEED 4.5 BILLION DOLLARS. THIS IS THE LARGEST AMOUNT FARMERS HAVE
EVER RECEIVED FROM THE SALE OF LIVESTOCK. THE SHARP INCREASE OVER 1941
REFLECTS A COMBINATION OF THE HIGHER LEVEL OF LIVESTOCK PRICES AND THE
LARGEST MARKETING OF MEAT ANIMALS ON RECORD. INCOME FROM EACH SPECIES
OF MEAT ANIMALS WILL BE AT A RECORD LEVEL, WITH HOGS SHOWING THE LARGEST
I BILLIONS I
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THE LIVESTOCK AND WOOL SITUATION
Hog slaughter in the 12 months beginning October 1 is expected to total'
94 or 95 million head. The number of hogs slaughtered under Federal inspoc-
tion may exceed 65 million head, compared with 52.4 million head slaughtered
,in the 1941-42.marketing year. Despite this sharp increase in marketing, hog
prices in 1943 are expected to remain close tv recent high levels. Prices may
decline seasonally this lall and winter, but the exceptionally strong demand
for meats will be a supporting factor throughout 1943.
The outlook for a continued high level of hog production in 1943 in
mostly favorable, although the farm labor situation may be a limiting factor.
Among the factors favoring large production are abundant feed supplies, the
favorable hog-corn price ratio, and the outlook for a continued high level of
spite the large increase in cattle slaughter this year, the number of
cattle and calves on farms and ranches at the beginning of 1943 is expected to
be substantially larger than a year earlier. Cattle numbers have now reached
the point -.t which: slaughter could be increased much further in 1943 without
jeopardizing a continued high level of beef production.
Shipments of feeder cattle to the Corn Bolt during July-September
totaled abcut 9 percent larger than a year earlier, but were smaller than in
those months of the preceding 2 years. Uncertainty regarding the outlook for
cattle prices in 1943 appears to be an important factor affecting purchases of
feeder cattle this fall* Favorable factors in the cattle feeding outlook
include abundant feed supplies, low feed-costs in relation to fat cattle
ll .:::,, W:" M:.:
:' ": % i : :. :"
OCTOBER 1942 -4 -
prices, relatively large supplies-of feeder cattle,-and generally favorable
returns from last season's feeding operations.
Hea-vy rarlretings of sheep and lambs during the past few months indicate
that the upward trend in sheep.numbers of'the past few years has now been
halted. Th-e ~-nui.ber; of sheep on farms on January 1, 1943 may be slightly
smaller than th:- record large number of a year earlier, and total sheep pro-
duction during 1943 may be reduced moderately. Indications in early October
point to some decrease in the number of lambs fed during the 1942-43 feeding
season, compared with the record large number fed in 1941-42. Feeding opera-
tions in th3 Corn Belt may be about as large as 2 year earlier, but feeding
in the Western Stat.s may be reduced matericllry.
Despite the record high level of moat production in 1942 and in
prospect for 1943, meat supplies are not largJ relative to our total wartime
requirements. Military and lend-lease needs are absorbing most of the increase
in production that has taken place, while civilian demand also has expanded
greatly as a rocult of increased consumer purchasing power. In order to be
sure of adequate supplies of meats for nilitary- and lend-lease needs during
coming months, tnr Offi-e of Price Administration has restricted distribution
of mats to civilirx" consumers. Consumers are being urged voluntarily to
restrict consumption of meats until formal rationing can be instituted in 1943.
Because of the large military requirDmonts, mill consumption of apparel
wool in 1943 is n:pocted to continue netr the record high annual rate of about
1 billion pounds (grease basis) reached in 1942. This is about 425 million
pounds morn tnhan the 1935-39 average annual consumption, and is a little over
twice as great as total domestic production of wool in 1942. Imports of wool
have been large in recent months, and the carry-ovor of wool into 1943 will
l2 sV-6 : *5
consist largely of foreign wools hold in the Government stock pile* Wool
S prices in 1943 are expected to continue at or near ceiling prices established
i' by the Office of Prico Administration. Wool production in 1943 may be slightly
?. smaller than the record large 1942 production of about 460 million pounds
; (greasy shorn and pulled basis).
,- October 24, 1942
:...:. VIEW OF RECENT DfVELOPMENTS
i g Price Ad.vance to New Peak
i i Oct6ber
SHog prices advanced to a new 22-year peak in early October, after
;:'having wetkoned moderately during Septomber. 'The average price of butcher hogs
at Chicago for the week ended October 10 was $15.45, about $1.00 higher than in
mid-September and over $4.00 higher than in early October last year. The
: recent advance in hog prices reflects the temporary reduction in hog rarket-
ings during late September and early October. However, the 1942 spring pig
crop was 25 percent larger than that of last year, and hog marketing are
expected to pick up sharply during the next few weeks.
The spread between prices of butcher hogs and packing sows has narrowed
considerably during the past month as marketing of packing sows have decreased
seasonally. Highest prices are now being paid for butcher hogs weighing around
Corn prices have weakened a little since midsummer rnd, together with
S the recent advance in hog prices, this has been reflected in some further
improvement in the hog-corn price ratio. The ratio, based upon Chicago average
prices, was 19.1 for the week ended October 10. This compares with 15.0 in
SOctober ldst year and the long-time average of 11.6. This is the highest the
Sratio has been since 1926.
og Slaughter Increased in September
The number of hogs slaughtered under Fed6ral inspection during September
S totaled 3r843,000 head, 19 percent more than in August and 32 percent more than
in September last year. It was the largest inspected hog slaughter for the
month on record. The 1941-42 marketing year (October-September) total was 52*4
million head. This compares with 48.0 million head in 1940-41 and the 1923-241
Record slaughter of 53.7 million head; Most of the increase in marketing over
: a year earlier occurred in the second half of the year, reflecting the 18 per-
cent increase in the 1941 fall pig crop. So far in 1942 the average live
weight of hogs slaughtered under Federal inspection has been slightly heavier'.
-than in 1941, when it was several pounds heavier than in any other year of
.. ..... .. .
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Pork and Lard Stocks Reduced Seasonally- -
Gove rnment Purchases Small
Storage holdings of pork and l.:ri were reduced seasonally during
September. Cold storage holdin.,s of pork -.r. Octo'zlr 1 totaled 269 million
pounds, roughly 100 million po:uds l.ss thi-in year earlier and 125 million
pounds loss than the 1931-40 October 1 .avrag3. October 1 lard stocks
(including rendered pork fat) of 62 million pounds were only 29 percent as
lorec- as a year earlier, ihen stocl-s wore urusuall: laro. They also were oai
a little over half as large as the 1931-40 Cctobcr 1 figure.
Purcha.ses of pork and lard for l;nd-lcase and other Government uses we
reduced sharply during August and September to hA:p relieve the seasonal
shortage of hog products that developed during the past sumner. Purchases are
-xpccted to be increased greatly during the n2xt few months when hog slaughter
will increase. For the entire marketing iear (October 194i-Soptember 1942) 2
total pork purchases amounted to about 23 percent of the pork produced under
Federal inspection. Because there is some lpg in the time from which purchasol
are reported and deliveries arj mado, -the amount of pork actually withdrawn
from supplies available for civilian and other uses may be a little smaller
than this perccntago indicates, This also nar be true for lard, Government
purchases of which amounted to abnut 37 percent of federally inspected output
during the 1941-42 marketing year.
TaJbl. 1.- Goverinment purc'hses and federally inspected producti-o of
pork and lard, March 1941-Scpteibcr 1942
_____ ___ Lard 1/
: Government purchnses (actual : Federally
Month : weight basis) inspected : Government: Federally
: Gured nd production purchases : inspected
Sfroen : Canned Total dressedd : production;
:___ _: : :'wei.;:t basiss: _
: Million Million Million Million Million Million
:pounds pounds Runds pounds pcunds pounds
total ..: 243.0 230.0 473.1 5,240.4 326.2 1,269.3.
Jan ..... 32.1 75.3 107.4 775.7 67.2 203.3
Feb. .....: 6.2 41.7 47.9 520.2 41.9 128.5.
Mar. ..... 30.5 57.5 a8.0 544.4 37.3 132.1
Apr. ..... 111.8 108.8 220.6 567.8 106.5 126.9
May ......: 76.7 85.0 161.6 597.1 72.1 135.1:
June ,...: 91.8 111.1 202.9 654.7 65.8 151.0
July ....: 46.7 132.1 178.9 5s2.. 80.4 139.0
Aug. .... 5.7 80.9 86.5 496.4 35.0 106.7
Sept .... 7.7 57.2 64.9 13.8
1/ Includes rendered pork fat.
for lard into line with ceiling prices for otler shrrtnings. The new order,
Amendment 10 to Revised Price Schedul o. 55, provides for a system of
regional differentials based upon shipping costs .etwecn spocifiod basing
points and points of delivery. The basing-Point price for lose lard sold by
processors at Chicago is 12.S cents per pound, compared with the previous ceil-
ing of 11.9 cents. Separate action, effective October 15, also rhs been taeon
Ito establish now retail price ceilings for lard based upon fixed percentage
mark-ups over replacement cost.
Battle Prices Advance Moderatel i.n Early Octrccr;
S Prices of most grades of slaughter cattle stronc--thl-nci a little .in early
iOctober, following the decline of the preceding sevc.ral wccks. Prices of woll-
finishcd slaughter cattle are now about as high as the ponal prices reached in
:mid-August, but prices'of the lower grades are about 60 cents lower. The
."Iproad 'betwo,-rn feoodr and fat cattle prices also h.I, wtidnr.c. somewh-at duri:;:
t''I he past few weoos. The average price of Go,-,O grade beef stc.;r at Chlicwi'o
Sfr the week ended October 10 was $l4.70, c-ipared with $14.40 in nid-Septonber
Sand $11.50 in the corresponding weel: of 1941.
Cattle slaughter continued nor record levels luring Septneber and early
October as markotings of range cattle increased scasonall.:r. TIe number of
cattle slaughtered under Federal inspection during Septcmber t-taled 1.2
i:; million head, 5 percent more than in August anxd 15 percent more than a year
earlier. It was the largest commercial slaughter reported for any month since
Inspected calf slaughter during September totaled 513,000 head, 12 per-
cent greater than in August and 15 percent more than in September last year.
So far in 1942 calf slaughter has totaled about 5 percent greater than a year
SLamb Prices Weaken in Early Octo)cr;
Lamb prices declined in late Septembcr and early October, reflecting
Greatly increased marketing of sheep and lambs. The average price of Good
and Choice grade slaughter lambs at Chicago for the week ended October 10 was
S$13.90, 40 cents lower than in mid-September but $2.20 higher than in early
October last' year. Prices of mature sheep marketed for'slaughter in early
.October were about 80 cents .higher than a year earlier.
Continued heavy marketing of ewes and replacement stock, together
With the usual seasonal increase in slaughter supplies of lambs, increased
total sheep and lamb slaughter during September to 2.2 million head. This
;was 21 percent greater than in August and 42 percent greater than in September
.last year, It was the largest commercial slaughter for any month of record.
irj~i ---I- --' --- ---- -- ------
The proportion of ews sheep in total slaughter hae been unusually large durii
the past few months. An increase in the number of packing plants operating
under Federal inspection also has tended to increase thb number of animals
reported slav.ghtered by such plants, but the apparent increase due to this
factor is believed not to be large.
Ceiling Prices Established for Mutton;
Temporary Lamb Ceiling Extended
Ma::imum wholosalc and retail prices for mutton wore established by the
Office of Price Aldinistration in early October at the highest prices prevail
ing during the week ended October 3. The order, Temporary Maximum Price
Regulation Ho, 22, followed the recent amendment to the Emergency Price Conti
Act of 1942. Previously, .mitton prices were exempt from action by the Office
of Price jAminiztratior. so long as sheep prices were below 110 percent of
parity. In mid-Septemzber, sheep prices averaged 81 percent of the parity pri
Tho new order also applies to poultry, thus bringing prices of all meat undei
The temporary price ceilings order for lamb, which becar.e effective
Aug1ust 10, now has been extended indafiaitoly under Maximum Price Reoulation
No. 29, pending the completion of a price control order in terms of specific
dollars and cents prices. Ceiling prices for lamb are thus continued at the
highest levels charged by:, sellers during the period July 27-31, 1942.
OUTLOOK FOR MEATS AiD LIVESTOCK IN 1943
Livestock production has errpnded rapidly in the United States during
the past few yoars. Several all-time high records for the production and
marl:ting of meat ani.-ls wore established in l91h2, and even greater marketii
are in prospect for 1943. It is now estimrtod that the output of boef, -oal,
pork, lamb, and mvtton in 1942 will total approximately 22 billion pounds, an(
that total meat production in 1943 may cxcccd 24 billion pounds. Those figu
compare with a 1935-39 average production of only a little over 16 billion
Despite this high level of production, total meat supplies are not
large relative to our tot.:l wartime requirements. Military and lend-lease
needs are absorbing most of the increase that .iis occurred in production dui
ing the past 2 or 3 years, while civilian demand for moats also has cxpa.ndo
greatly az a result of incr=as's in cmploymznt and wage rates that have tak
place. For the coming ya.r incrceai..g military: and land-lcase requirements
for meats will leave fewer pounds available for civilian consumers on a per
capital basis, as woll as less than the amount of meat which civilians would
like to buy at coiling prices. This was illustrated by the meat shortages
which have developed in several regions during the past few months.
To mnke cortoin that sufficient mat will be available for military
and lend-lcase uses during coming months, the Office of Price Administratio
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recently has placed restrictions upon the distribution of meats to civilian
consumers. For the last 3 months of 1942, commercial meat packers are required
to limit deliveries of moats into civilian cor:-"un-,tion to the follrwin-:
percentages of such deliveries in the last quarter of 1941: Beef, 80 percent;
veal, 100 percent; pork, 75 percent; lamb and mutton, 95 percent. At the same
time, consumers are urged to restrict their consumption of moats on a
voluntary basis to a wcrkl7r avcra-e of 2-1/2 pounds (retail weight basis) per
adult. This amount of meat, if equitably divided ongn consum2~r., is con-
siderably more than the minimum quantity noedd to meet satisfactory dietary
standards. Formal rationing of meats probably will be instituted by the Office
of Price Administration in 1943.
1942 Pi,; Cr Larot on Record
Hog producers this year will raise the largest pig crop on record --
105.5 million head. This is one third greater than the average pig crop of
the 10 ;'.:-'s prior to the 1934 drought. The 1942 spring crop of 62 million
head is 25 percent greater than that of 1941, and the fall crop, preliminarily
c:timltcd at 45.5 million head, is about 22 percent greater than last year's
fall crop. Production is up sharply over last year in ncarl:- all States,
although the increase in production in the Western Corn Belt since 1936 has
lagg-d behind that in the Eastern Corn Bolt and in States outside the North
Factors accounting for the large increase in hog production during
1942 inclulo: (1) the favorable :--g-corn price ratio thai has prevailed during
the past year and a half; (2) price support announced by the Department of
Agriculture throu-h June 1943, which assured farmers of a continued high level
of hog prices; (3) abundant supplies of feed grains in the principal hog-
producing areas; and (4) generally favorable response by farmers to the
wartime need for increased production of agricultural commodities.
Record Large EH Slaughter E:.,cctd
Because of the large increase in the 1942 pig crro, slaughter supplies
of hogs in the 19-2-43 marketing year (October-September) are certain to set
an all-time record. Total hog slaui-hter in the 12 months allowing for some
increase in death losses, may be 94 or 95 million head. T:-e number of hogs
slaughtered under Federal inspection probably will total at least 65 million
head. Tl.is compares with a total federally inspected sl:-.'i.t-r in the 1941-42
marketi-;, year 'f 52.4 million head and the previous record sl ter in
federally inspected plants of 53.7 million head in 1923-24.
If the 1943 spring pig crop cTh.uld again be about 62 million head, hog
slaughter in the calendar year 1943 would total about the same as the estimates
given above for the 1942-43 marketing year. Any increase that may take place
in next "--r's spring crop would be reflected in a proportional change in hog
slaughter during the last quarter of 1943.
__ I _____~ _
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Marketing and ProcesLin, Facilities
Api-ear A qc Qu.t;
With the 1942 spring pig crop up 25 percent over that of last year, the
number of hogs marketed during the coming fall and winter season (Octobcr-April
may exceed last year by 9 or 10 million head. If marketing follow about the
usual seasonal pattern, the number of hogs marketed for slaughter at federally.
inspected plants during December and January may be as large as 7-1/2 million
head in each of these months. The large-st number of hogs slaughtered in any
one month of record was 6.6 million head in December.
Exact. estimates of the peak capacity of marketing and processing
facilities are not available but, onthe basis of preliminary studies male by
the Department of Agriculture, it appears that the heavy run of hogs this
winter can be handled without serious difficulty, providing marketings arc'net
concentrated too greatly within the peak marketing period. For the pazt severe
months, farmers have been urged to fatten out their early spri:-,: pi,-s as rapid-
ly as possible an:. to market them as early as they can. Holding late spring
pigs beyond the December-January peak marketing period also has been rc'commcnde
The Department of Agriculture has been developing marketing plans that can be
put. into effect should congested marketing conditions develop.
Demand for Hog Products Strong; Hog Prices to
Continue High in 1943
Demand for hog p.duc.ts in 1943 is expected to exceed that of 1942, and
it probably will be even stronger than that experienced during World War I.
Most of the lend-lease requirements for meat ,products so far have been for porl
and lard. Little beef, veal, lamb, and mutton have. been purchased. Mont
requirements of the armed forces include somewhat less pork than beef, but the
total amount of pork that will be purchased by the Army and Navy also is lr rgo,
In addition to those needs, consumer purchasing power in 1943 may be close, t
50 percent greater than in 1929. Hence, even thou-'i slaughter supplies of hog;
during the coming year will be much the l.n:c.-t on record, the outlook for hog'
prices continues favorable. Some decline in prices probably will take place
when marketing are seasonally large this fall and winter, but prices -luring
the next 12 months are expected to remain at or near the highest levels
permitted by ceilings for pork, lard, and for live hogs. The Office of Price
Administration has announced that maximum prices for live hogs will be
established in the near future.
1941 Goal for Hog Prcducti in Announced by the
Secretary of A'ricult.re
The 1943 -oal for hog production, rece-tly announced by the Secretary
of Agriculture, calls for a 10 percent increase in 1943 spring farrowings and'
a 10 pound increase in the v.. rage weight of hogs marketed during next year.
Factors favorable to attaiining those increases in production include the
record largo corn crop to be harvested this fall, and the.currently very
favorable hog-corn pi-ice ratio. Gr-:'uirng conditions were unusually good this
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season, and' the 1942 corn crop is ostinat, at a little over 3.1 billion
bushels, comp-rec with last year's crop of a little less than 2.7 billion
bushels. A large proportion of the 1942 corn crop will be u. ., for raising
and fattcnin_" the 1943 sp'irng pig' crop.. Evc ,: th?.'.;,:' hog prices may decline
searonally in the next month or so, the largo corn supply proor.bly will hold
-z.orn prices to about curroht levels, and the hn..-corn price ratio is expected
to continue favorable for hog producers.
Cattle Po~ulatinn ?Zpectod to Show Further
Incro:.c Dur ln: a42
Cattle numbersehave increased sharply in the United States since 1938,
with numbers on January 1, 1942 reaching the record li; ': level of 74.6 million
head, Becnuse of this increase, marketing of cattle and calves for slaughter
now can be largo without cuttir;w- into brecding herds. This year inspected
cattle slaughter has been rannring about 15 percent above a year earlier. But
despite this large slaughter, cattle ru-nbt'hrs may increase 1 million head or
more duri:.- the year, Weather and feed conditions in the Westerlf Range States
have been L.rally favorable, with the results that death losses have been
light -and the calf crop has developed favorably.
SAs shown in the accorpanying table, a part of the expected increase
in cattle nuubors on January 1, 1943 over a year earlier will be in cows kept
for milk. .:-.":-rable ran:Ic:: conditions also'7-,ay encourage the holding back of
brc e.inj stock in'the Great Plains area, whore numbers are considerably below
the pro-drought level. But in the Corn Belt, where cattle numbers are at much
the hi.;:-het level on record and where hog production has been increased sharply,
little further increase in cattle numbers is expected.
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Table 2.- Cattle on farms January 1, calf crop, imports,
slaughter and total disappearance, 1938-43
S : : : Prcliminary
Item : 1938 : 1939 : 1940 : 1941 : estimates
: : : : : 1942 : 1943
SMil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
: head head head head head head
Cattle and calves on farms, January 1 -:
0o-:, 2 : I..-: .:d and over:
i/cr 7-: ......................... 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.5 26.3 27.1
.'r :: ........ ................. : 10.1 0.0 10.6 11.2 12.0 12.1
..'-.. ........................ : 34.6 34.6 35-5 36.7 38.3 39.2
Other c1 z. td calves .............: 30.6 31.4 32.7 34C8 36. 37.0
Cr-a ,.tal .............. ....: 65.2 66,0 68.2 71.5 74.6 76.2
Calf crop ...........................: 27.8 28.8 29.8 31.0 32.0
Imports .f c' tLle and calves ........: ,4 .8 .6 .7 .6
Total number ................. : 93o4 95.6 98.6 103.2 107.2
Slr b' t c -
Catdle Federally inspected ........: 9.8 9.4 9.8 10.9 12.6
Noniipcted ...............:. 5.0 5*2 5.2 5*5 5-7
Total .................: 148 14.6 15.0 16.4 .3
Calves Federally inspected ........: 55 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7
Tr;:n-pected ................: 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.8 3-8
Iotal .................: 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.3 9-5
Total slaughter ...........: 24.1 23.8 24.1 25.7 27.8
Other disappearance .................: 3.3 3.6 3.0 2.9 3.2
Total disappearance ........: 27.4 27.4 27.1 28.6 31.0
Number end of year ..................: 66.0 68.2 71.5 74.6 76.2
Moderate Reduction Likely in Cattle Feeding
Reports from the principal cattle feeding States in early October
indicate considerable uncertainty among cattle feeders regarding the outlook
for battle prices in the 1942-43 feeding season. Other factors which
ordinarily influence the number of cattle fed, however, are quite favorable.
These include: (1) large supplies of feed grains, hay and roughagc. and
high-protc;i concentrates in the Corn Belt and in most of the oth:: important
feec.ing a (eas; (2) favorable feed costs in relation to fat crttle r-ices;
(3) gene.ira .y favorable returns from last season's feeding operate. i;
(4) relat. .-ly large supplies of feeder cttle. The extent to wh',.., these
favorable conditions s will offset the hesitancy arising from the u: certain
price siv, cion is difficult to determine, but it seems probable that the
total numL;r of cattle fed in the 1942-43 season will not be reduced greatly
from that of a year earlier.
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The uncertainty in the cattle feeding outlook this season arises
chiefly from the wide fluctuations which have occurred in fat cattle prices
since the establishment of ceiling prices for beef in early April. Strong
competition from packers for all kinds of cattle suitable for immediate
slaughter also has tended to support feeder cattle prices at levels considered
to bo high relative to fat cattle prices. This has been particularly true for
the upper grades of feeder cattle. However, on the basis of average market
prices in recent weeks, the spread between feeder and fat cattle prices
appears to be at least as favorable for cattle feeding as the average for the
past 15 years.
Shipments of feeder cattle to the Corn Belt during the late summer and
fall (Jul'y-September) have been substantially larger than a year earlier, but
smaller than in corresponding months of each of the preceding 2 years. Range
conditions were exceptionally favorable in the Western States last year, and
the fall movement of cattle was delayed. Although somewhat less favorable
than in 1941, range feed conditions have been above average again this year,
and it mry be that market movement of range cattle this season again will be
later than usual.
Shipments of feeder cattle into the Corn Belt during the last half of
1941 were materially smaller than in the same months of the preceding 2 years.
But despite the smaller inshipments, the number of cattle reported on feed in
the Corn Bolt on January 1, 1942 was only 3 percent smaller than a year earlier
and among -hve largest number of cattle on feed on that date for any year.
Apparent;rL- at least a part of the decrease in cattle shipments during the
fall was offset by the feeding of an increased number of cattle raised in the
Corn Belt. Because of the sharp expansion in hog production and the high level
of cattle numbers in the North Central States this year, it again appears
likely that a larger than usual number of Corn Belt cattle will be fed for
market. And if inshipments are about as large as they were in the last half
of 1941, the total number of cattle fed in the 1942-43 feeding season will be
Reports from the Western States are that cattle feeding operations will
be on a smaller scale this year than last in most of these States. In
addition to the general uncertainty as to prices, the difficult labor situation
also seems to be an important factor with many feeders. Many cattle feeders
are putting off the decision as to whether or not to purchase feeder cattle
until-the sugar beet harvest is completed. Supplies of feed grains and beet
byproducts in most of these States are fairly large, but hay supplies are below
last year and hay prices are much higher than last year.
In view of the sharp reduction in the number of cattle on feed August 1
this year- from a year earlier and the rather heavy marketing of fed cattle in
August and September, it seems improbable that there will be as large a carry-
over of long-fed cattle into the winter marketing season as occurred last
Cattle Prices Epected to Continue
high during 1943
The outlook for cattle prices in 1943 is favorable. Because of price
ceilings oa beef, cattle prices generally are not expected to rise much if any
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above current levels during 3943. But the prospective demand for meats
appears strong enough to absorb almost any supply of cattle that is likely to
be marketed next year without a material depressing effect upon cattle prices.
Most of the advance in the general level of cattle prices since early
1941 has been in the lower grades of slaughter cattle. This has been due to
several factors, among which have been the strong military demand for beef
including canned beef produced chiefly from the lower grades of cattle, and
the exceptionally strong civilian demand for all meats. This second factor
led to some upgrading of beef on the part of dealers.
The Office of Price Administration recently announced that normal grade
differentials for carcass beef prices will be strictly enforced. Because much
of the beef from the lower grades of cattle is not sold as carcass beef but
is used for canning and sausage production, prices of these grades probably
will not be materially reduced by this action. As a result, prices of the
lower gajdes of slaughter steers, cows, and bulls are likely to continue high
relative to prices of well-finished cattle'in 1943.
SHEEP AND LAMBS
Moderate Reduction in Sheep Numbers
E cl Jc During 1`42
Sheer numbers have increased steadily in the United States during the
past several years, particularly in the Western States and in Texas.
Exceptionally heavy marketing of sheep and lambs during the current year
indicate that this upward trend has been halted. A moderate reduction in our
total sheep population may be under way.
Despite the slightly smaller lamb crop this year than last, marketing
of sheep and lambs for slaughter since early May (the beginning of the spring
lamb marketing season) have totaled about 15 percent larger than a year
earlier. Some of this increase may have resulted from a larger than usual
carry-over of yearlings into the 1942-43 marketing season. But with the sharp
increase in slaughter during the past 3 months, it appears that a larger than
usual proportion of the 1942 lamb crop is being marketed for slaughter and
fewer ewe lmbs are being held for replacement purposes. The proportion of
mature sheep in total slaughter also has been large. These trends indicate
that total sheep and lamb slaughter in 1942 may equal or'exceed 24 million
If death losses during the year are about average, sheep numbers on
farms and ranches on January 1, 1943 may be about 500,000 head smaller than
the estimated 56.0 million on hand a year earlier.
- 15 -
Table 3.- Sheep numbers on farms Jar.uary 1, lamb crop,
slaughter and total disappearance, 19-3:-2
Itom 138 : 1939 1940 : 1941 : 1942 1/
: Million Million Million Million Million
: head e -.~ he a h head
lTumber on'farms auar 1 -
EwVr, 1 year + .....,.......... : 3 4.8 35.0
Other stock sheep and lambs ....: 10.3 10.7
Sl orp and luambs on fo6d ........: 6.1 5
Total ........ ........... : 51.2 51.6
Lamb crop .........................: 30,5 30.1 3. 3 _3. 32.32
Total "u,:al7" ............: 1.7 31.7 83,7 87.2 35.3
Fd.r-lllr inspccted cl auhtcr .....: 13.1 17.2
Nonirir..-'ct. d -l1-',,l:tcr .4.4 4.4
Noninr t..-,d la.'.tcr ............: 4.4
T"t.l cla4. htcr 2............: 2.5 21,6
Other di r ~ p earaice ...............:
Total disappearance ........:
Iur:', r on farms end of the year ...:
7.6 7" 7 g_ 1a J .7
30.1 29.3 29.4 31.2 32.8
51.6 52.4 54.3 56.0. 55.5
1! Preliminarj estimate.
2She': and LT-'o ?Pr'.Incti orn May 3n
Reduced in 1943
One of the most important factors res-onsible for the I-v" marketing
of sheep and Icl-is during 1942 has been the increasing shortage of skilled
l.'b-r for handling sheep in the Westorn States. Rather, than run the risk of
heavy, death losses, many sheepncn arc reported to have reduced the size of
their herds. It is probable that the labor situation will become even more
acute in 1943. With bree.Lin.: herds reduced noderatoly by this year' s
liquidation, the western lamb crop nay be reduced soamwhat next year, even
thm uh weather and feed conditions should be about average.
Sh3i,:c production in the Corn Belt and other native States has increased
only slightly during the past few- years. Because of the sharp increase in
hog production that has taken place in many of those States, little or no
increase in fard flocks is expict:-d.
Despite the prospective decrease in sheep production during 19.43, the
over-all reduction in sheep numbers is not expected to be large unless range
feed conditions are much loss favorable than they have been during the past
2 or 3 years. .Because sheep numbers are relatively. large, some reduction
can take place without jeopardizing a continued hi'h 'evel of sheep
ccTOBER 1942 16 -
Moderate HReluction in L.amb-.Feeli n
E L I _C_1ics a-a g ed
Information available in early October indicates that the number of
lambs fed in the lq42-43 feeding season will be a little smaller than the
rccuzd larg- number fed a year earlier. Fe=ding operations in the 11 Corn
Belt States mey be about the same as last year, but feeding in the Western
States may be on a materially.reduced scale.
Total ?hipment3 of feeder lambs and sheep- into the 11 Corn Belt States
during July throh'n September of this year did not differ greatly'from a year
earlier. Feeder shipments inspected at stockyard markets during the 3 months
were about 10 percent larger this year than last, in addition to being the
largest in 11.years. Records of direct inshipments into seven of these State
show a sharp falling off from last year, but this decrease was partly offset
by a larger direct movement into Kansas,
Present indications are that the num.ber-of lambs fed this year will
be smaller than last in Illinois, 1ichigan, Missouri, South Dakota, and
Nebraska; about the same in Ohio, Wisecnsin, Minnesota, and Iowa; and larger
in Indiana and Kansas. In Febraska the decrease is expected to be largely
in the Scottsbluff area, with some increase probable in the rest of the State
The number of lambs grated on Kansas, wheat pastures'this year will probably
exceed the record numbers grazed last year. The excellent wheat pastures
and br.mpc- grain crops in the Plains section of Texas are expected to
increase laab feeding in that State.
Reports from the Western States based upon indications available
around C3;tober 1 are that lamb feeding will be on a considerably reduced
scale in all of these States with the possible exception of California. The
number of lambs under contract to feeders in early October was much below
usual. liwever, in areas where lamb feeding is closely associated with
sugar beet production, most feeders are concerned with the problem of getting
their beets harvested and are delaying decisions as to feeding operations
pending the completion of the harvest. If ether conditions are favorable,
there may be a good demand for feeder lambs in these areas when beet tops
become available later in the year.
The 1942 lamb crop in the Western States was smaller than that of 1943
and the exceptionally heavy slaughter of lambs in August and September
indicates that considerably fewer lambs remained in these States early in
October this year than a year ago. But because of the general tendency to
sell eve lambs and the restricted demand for such lambs for replacements,
it is probable that the number of lambs still available for feeding was
about as large on October 1 this year as last*
outlookk for Sheep Prices in 194
With some further incqase in the total demand for meats, sheep and
lamb prices probably will continue at or near recent levels in 1343.. Total
rarketings of sheep and lambs for slaughter next year will depend upon the
LWS-6 17 -
proportion of the 1942 lamb crop carried over into 1943, the size of the
1943 lamb crop, and the extent to which breeding herds are reduced during
1943, Even though these factors may contribute to heavy marketing next year,
slaughter supplies of sheep and I1mns in 1943 are not expected to exceed
greatly the number slaughtered in l192.
Little Change in Wool Prices
dicated for Y19
During the past few weeks, quoted prices for fine staple combing
territory wools at Boston have remained unchanged at $1.18 to $1.20 a pound
(scoured basis). Quoted prices on 3/8 blood combing fleece wools averaged
53.5 cents a pound (grease basis), a cent a pound above the early spring
high for these wools. The Pverage price received by farmers for wool on
September 15 was 39,7 cents a pound, compared with 37.4 cents a month earlier.
Except for some weakness during the late spring, domestic wool prices have
been maintained at ceiling levels during most of 1942.
Prices received by farmers for wool shorn this year are the highest
since 1925, and cash farm income from the sale of wool in 1942 probably will
exceed 150 million dollars, the largest on record. The high prices received
in 1942 have accompanied a strong demand for do-ostic 'ool for military
purposes. As such demand is expected to continue in 1943, the outlook for
domestic wool pricse i favorable. But w.thmaxir.1a pricesnowin effect, and
with prices for most wools close to ceiling levels, prices in 1943 are not
. expected to change greatly.
As large imports will be necessary, domestic wool prices in 1943 will
also be influenced by Trices of foreign wools. In the spring and summer of
1942, foreign fine wools were available at prices which were lower than prices
quoted for comparable domestic wools. Large aurntities of wool nre now
available in the Southern Hemisphere, but the greater part of this wool is
owned by the British Wool Control and is sold at fixed prices. Export prices
for British Empire wools of the 1942-43 clip are 12 to 14 percent higher than
the 1941-42 prices. This increase will bring Boston Pmrket prices for
Australian fine wools more in line with ceiling prices for domestic wools of
SRecord Mill Consumption Likely to be ::-intained
Mill consumption of apparel wool I/ averaged 11.4 million pounds a week
(scoured basis) in August, only slightly below the record July rate of 11.5
million pounds. The August rate of consumption wvs 15 percent higher than in
August 1941. About 45 percent of the wool consumed in August wrs domestic
wool, consumption of which has increased steadily in recent months. Mill
consumption of apparel wool has been at a record level since 19I1. The
consistently high rate of consumption this year is a reflection of large
military orders. Consumption of apparel wool on a greasy shorn and pulled
basis totaled 697 million pounds from January through August, compared with
1/ Domestic W0ol and all duty paid foreign wool.
":.: .'"% ..: ... : :E.E: .
I' *i~ ,
OCTOBER 1942 -.18 -
about 607 million pounds in the corresponding period last year and a 1935-39 '
average for those months of about 370 million pounds. About 324,million
pounds of domestic wool were used in the first 8 months of 1942.
The increase in consumption of apparel wool so far this year has been:
offset in part by the decline in consumption of carpet wool /, which is not'J
used extensively for military purposes. Consumption- of carpet wool in the .
first 8 months of 1912 was 43 million pounds (greasy shcrn and pulled),
compared with 129 million pounds in the corresponding period last year and'
the 1935-39 average for those months of about 90 million-pounds. Consumption
of carpet wool was at a relatively high level until restrictions were impose
by the Wpr Production Board at the beginning of 1942.
Mill consumption of apparel wool totaled approximately 700 million
pounds (greasy shorn and pulled basis) in the first 8 months of 19L2. If
this rate .of consumption is maintained throughout the year, total mill con -
sumrtion in 1942 will exceed 1 billion pounds, a new record. The 1935-39
average consumption of apparel wool was about 575 million pounds. The large ,
consumption this year is due chiefly to large military orders for wool
fabrics. Mill consumption cf wool for civilian purposes has been sharply
curtailed by the War Production Board. Restrictions on civilian use of wool '.
probably will continue in 1943. Consumption is also likely to be limited ty M
increasing shortages of skilled labor and essential materials, but in view M
of the large military requirements for wool fabrics and increasing demands foi,
lend-lease materials, little decline is expected in mill consumption in 1943. ,
Slightly S.-lller Production in Prospect;
Large Ir.ports Nocded
Wool production in the United States in 1943 may be slightly smaller
than the 1942 record production. The large slaughter of sheep and lambs in
1942 may result in a moderate reduction in the number of sheep to be shorn in:
1943, while military requirements for shoarling pelts may result in reduced
production of pulled wool. Production of shorn wool in 1942 is estimated at
392 million pounds compared with 390 million pounds in 1941. Production of
pulled wool in 1942 prob-bly will-exceed last year's production of 66 million. 1
pounds. Domestic growers have been assured an outlet for the unsold portion
percent domestic wools.
The carry-over of wool in the United States into 1943 will consist in E
large part of foreign wools held as a strategic reserve in the Government
stock pile. Such wools will not be available for commercial use except in
case of emergency. On July 4, dealers and manufacturers had on hand about
600 million pounds of apparel wool (greasy shorn and pulled basis), and some ,
wool was still unsold on farms and ranches. The total stocks on July 4 were
about a 7 or 8 months supply at the current rate of consumption. As no
further supplies of domestic wool will be available before late spring,
additional supplies of foreign wool will be needed if the-current high rate
of consumption is to be maintained through the first half of 1943.
Consumption of apparel wool is now more than twice the domestic production.
If Duty free foreign wool used chiefly in floor coverings.
*.. ": ,"" :.%i 3"
I : ,
Import Permits Now Required for All Wools
Wools finer than 44s, as -ell as carpet wools and all other grades,
are now subject to the restrictions of General Imports Order YM63, and may
not be imported without i-port -.r.:its of the Director General for Operations
of the War Production Board. Under Locnd-nont 1 to the imports order, wools
finer than 44s were exempt from import restrictions through September 30.
The exemption expired October 1 and has not been extended. These wools are
used for clothing and other purposes and are the grades required for the pro-
duction of military fabrics. As wool is a strategic war material and is
included on the emergency shipping priorities list which guarantees preference
in space on American-bound ships for items considered vital to the Nation's
wartime economy, it is likely that permits will be available so far as
shipping space is available.
r Because of restrictions on the use of mohair and reduced demand for
S automobile fabrics, mohair prices so far this ycar are reported to be below
those of 1941 when the average price received by farmers was 57 cents a pound.
The outlook for mohair prices in the 1943 season depends to a considerable
.extent upon.how much mohair is used in civilian appPrel fabrics.
Dcmpnd for mohair in 1942 was sharply curtailed by the conversion of
the automobile industry to war purposes. Before the var, 65 percent of the
mohair used in this country went into the manufacture of pile fabrics for
automobile upholstery. Mohair also is used in men's summer suits, heavy
coatings and furniture upholstery fabrics. In view of the restriction on
the use of wool, the demand for mohair for such fabrics is expected to
increase. Mills recently have announced plans for increased use of mohair
in suitings to replace trorical worcteds. Restrictions on the use of mohair
under Conservrtion Order M--73 wro removed in August, and mohair now is
available for unlimited consumption in civilian goods. Mohair is not used
extensively in military fabrics,
Stocks of mohair in August werr estimated at 19 million pounds, and a
fall clip of about S million pounds is now being shorn. A considerable part
of the reported stocks were hold by country dealers. Total production in
1942 may amount to about 21 million pounds. cnmang for the fall clip is likely
to be slow until stocks are moved to mills.
- 19 -
" `--' "'-;-";;;~-~ -~-~-~-""
. .-. -- -- -
Livestock: Marketings and slaughter statistics, by species,
September 1942 with d6taparisons
Item Jan.-Aug. :1941 19
___Item ___: 1940 : 191a. : 1942 :Sept.: Aug. :Se
Cattle and calves -
Nunber slaughtered under
Steers .....................: Thousand
Cows and heifers ...........: "
All cattle .................:
Percent cows and heifers :
are of total cattle .......: Pot.
Calves .....................: Thousand
Average live weight:
Cattle .....................: Lb.
Calves .....................: "i
ToLal dressed weight:
Cattle .....................: Mil. lb.
Calves .....................: "
Shipments of feeder cattle and:
calves to seven Corn Belt
States 1/ ................: Thousand
Number slaughtered under
Federal inspection ..........: "
Average live weight .......... Lb.
Percent packing sows are of all:
purchases at seven markets ..: Pot.
Total production under
Pork ....................... : :il. lb.
Lard 2/ ....................:
Average yield per ho,::
Pork ................. ........: Lb.
Lard 2/ ....................: "
Storage stocks end of .c'nth :
Pork .......................: .T I. Ib.
Lard 2/ ....................
Sheep and lambs -
Number slaughtered uncer
F--deral inspection ..........: Thousand
Average live weight ..........: Lb.
Total dressed weight .......: Mil. lb.
Shipments of feeder lambs to :
seven Corn Belt States 1/ ...: Thousand
Total dressed weight of live-
stock slaughtered under
Federal inspection ...........: .il. lb.
&2.3 43.6 42.3. 45.7 47.7
,541 3,546 3,692 447 460
946 960 965 955 937
183 187 195 221 232
S3,239 3,629 4,186 525 555 I5
363 375 404 56 59
876 759 778 270 173 294,
:31,264 29,114 34,036 2,920 3,223 3,843'
: 236 23 245 245 266
12 10 12 25 33 %28'
138.6 140.3 140.1
33.6 33.1 31.7
1,121 1,203 786
9,831 11,400 1,178
1/ Total shipments direct and from public stockyards to Ohio, Indiana,
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Io;ra, and Nebraska.
2 Including rendered pork fat.
... Y ':..:
E6 21 -
Livestock prices per 100 pounds (except where noted) by species,
September 1942, with comparisons
S1914 Sept. 9 1942
Item annual:19 29: 1 1941 : July : A Sept.
:nve rare aver : : :
: ol Dol. Dol. Dol Dol Dal ol Dol-
:..fttle and calves -
SBeef steers sold out of first :
hands at Chicago:
S Choice and Prime .........:
; Good *.....................:
Common .................. :
All grades j................
Good grade cows at Chicago ...:
Vealers, Good and Choice at
Stocker and feeder steers at
Kansas City ................:
SAverage price paid by packers
All cattle ............. ...:
S Steers ................
SAverage market price at
Barrows and gilts ......... :
S Sows .....................
All purchases ...........,:
Average price paid by packers :
Average price No, 3 Yellow
corn at Chicago ./ ..........:
S Hog-corn price ratio at
Chicago Y ..................
Sheep and lambs -
Spring lambs,.Good and Choice :
grade at Chicago ..........:
Feeding lambs, Good and Choice:
I grade at Omaha .............:
SEwes, Good and Choice grade :
at Chi cago ....................,:
Average price paid by packers
for sheep and lambs .........:
SIndex retail meat prices 5/ ..:
Index income of industrial
I| workers ................:
9.93 I/ 8.89
11.58 13.65 14.30 14.88 14.99
8.41 9.98 11.09 12.05 11.64
S/ 6.76 11.67 14.55 14.74 14.67
2/ 5.95 10.16 13.73 13.95 14.18
11.01 6.45 11.04 14,25 14.37 14.45
11.21 6.49 11,28 14.12 14.28 2/
96.9 64.5 75.1 86.0 84.4 84.1
11.6 10.0 14.7 16.6 17.0 17.2
13.62 9.14 11,93 14.43 14.77 14.2B
10,27 12.92 8.55 11.0o 12.52 12.94 12.89
5.43 5.54 3.53 5.10 5.68 6.01
8.30 10.57 12.14 11.87 2/
88.s 99.3 109.6 111.4 112.4.
q7 ,18 177 181 21
1 1925-29 average; not available prior to 1925.
* Not available.
/Cents per bushel,
/ umber of bushels of corn equivalent in value to 100 pounds of live hogs.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, converted to 1924-29 base.
eaau of Agricultural Econrmic 1Q24-PQ9 -. .
Wool: ,Mill consumption and machine activity, United Stat.e, .:
selected periods, 1940-42
Aggregba~e : Weekly average .:
.: Jan.-Aug. I/ : Ag. July :Aug
191 94 1L. 191asi
S -" _- i J
(revised basis) 14 : ..
Grease basis 5 :
Apparel wool- :639,618 967,685 622,578 697,300 18,735 21,602 21,724
Domestic .... 486,756 493,934 299,596 323,595 '9;578. 10,518 11,51
( duty paid) ......: -152,862 473,751 322,932 373,705 9,157 11,084 10,14-
(auty free) ......: 138,746 199,453 131,831 *42,888 4,06-4 -1,079 -6
Appar..l .ool ....... 309,163 509,014 330,925 373,335 9,928 11,474.. 11U 36
Carpet wocl .......: 98,708 138,917 91,322 .30,622 2,814 80.9 '50
: \ y Weekly average in hours ..,
Hours psr available
Worsted combs .....
Worsted spindles ..
Woolen spindles ...
Cnrp-t and rug
34.6 *- 36.2
50.0 4'2.6 53.8 37.8
31.0 24.2 33.0 24.8
Compil'.d from reports of the Bureau of the Census.
i/.The Janusry-August period covers 35 weeks in 1941 and 34 wpeks irix1942j bence the
totals are nct comparable.
S4-rwt.k .p.prioo. .
n Nvew basis adopted by the Bureau of the Census in January 1942. Apparel wool
includes all Jomestic wools and all duty paid foreign wools. Carpet" wool includes A
only foreign wools entered free of duty for the manufacture of floor covering, presi
cloth, knit or felt boots or lumbermen's socks. In this table data for 1940 and
1941 hovu b.,en adjusted to the now basis.
5/ Total of shorn and pulled wool. Pulled wool, grease basis, is in condition
received from pullcries and is mostly washed. :.
Prices per pound of wool and other textile raw materials in
the United States, selected periods, 1939-42
i' Territory, scoured basis-
6 64, 70s, 80s (fine) staple
combing ......................: 82.7
56. (3/8 blood) combing ........: 69.3
46s (low 1/4 blood) ............: 62.6
Bright fleece, greasy-
S64s, 70s, 80s (fine) delaine ...: 32.9
56s (3/8 blood) combing ........: 36.2
.46s (low 1/4 blood) ............: 35.5
Foreign wool in bond
at Boston 1/
Sydney scoured basis
64e, 70s, good combing ........ 58.6
Cape scoured basis
12 months, combing ............ 53.7
Montevideo grease basis -
Merinos (60-64s) .............. 26.1
Is (56s) ......................: 23.3
Prices received by farmers,
grease basis, 15th of month ...: 22.3
Average 1941 : 1942
1940 : 1941 Sept. July Aug. iSept.
Cents Certs Cents Cents Cents Cents
67.9 72.7 70.5 79.0 79.0 79.0
62.9 70.9 6s.5 76.5 76.5 76.5
43.0 43.0 43.0
42.2 42.2 42.2
28.3 35.5 36.2 39.2 39.4 39.7
Wool, territory fine staple 2/ : 82.7
Cotton, 15/16" Middling 3/ ...: 9.30
Rayon yarn, 150 denier 4 ...: 51.6
Rayon staple fiber 5/
Viscose 1-1/2 denier .......: 25.0
Acetate 5 denier ..........: 46.0
Compiled from reports of the Agricultural Marketing Administration except as
SBefore payment of duty. Compiled from the Boston Commercial Bulletin.
Scoured basis, Boston market.
Average at 10 markets.
Domestic yarn, first quality, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
F .o.b. producing plants, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-A j .1
, i,, ,
After five days return 4
UNITED. STATES IEPARTIMENT OF AG4 ICoLTUBE
BUMEA.iU O6 AGRaCULTUEAL ECONOMICS
-WASHINGTON, D. C.
avoid- payment o po
i.3j2E6S OF1 FLORIDA
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