Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00059

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TH E


SIT UAT ION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


HARD RED WINTER WHEAT: DISTRIBUTION OF U. S.
SUPPLY, AND PRICE AT KANSAS CITY, 1929-41
BUSHELS CEI
( MILLIONS) **- P
MIa LLION) *Year-end stocks BU
Total i BUS
600 supply Exports including flour
Domestic disappearance












200 5


;00 2--------


0 L .


1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 19A
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
* STOCKS INCLUDE SOME NEW WHEAT. 1930-37 ^ PRELIMINARY


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 35687 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF HARD RED WINTER WHEAT HAS VARIED LITTLE
IN THE LAST 5 YEARS. FOLLOWING 4 YEARS (1933-36) OF SMALL CROPS IN THE
UNITED STATES WHICH CURTAILED EXrORTS, COMPARATIVELY LARGE EXPORTS IN
1937-38 WERE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF SMALL CROPS IN OTHER SURPLUS-PRODUCING
COUNTRIES, AND IN 1938-39 BY THE :3DERrjMENT EXPORT PROGRAMS. EXPORTS
IN THE LAST 3 YEARS HAVE BEEN CURTAILED BY THE EUROPEAN BLOCKADE AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DOMESTIC PRICES. AFTER REMAINING RELATIVELY SMALL FOR
5 YEARS, STOCKS AT THE END OF THE 1939-40 YEAR WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
10-YEAR (1931-40) AVERAGE, AT THE END OF THE 1940-41 YEAR WERE ABOUT A
THIRD ABOVE, AND BY THE END OF THE CURRENT YEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
THAN TWICE THE AVERAGE.


4 -


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WS-60


OCTOBER 1941


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- 2 -


THE WHEAT SITUAT I ON


Sumary

Domestic wheat prices are now only ali.;htly below prices a month

ago, having recovered from a sharp break on October 16, associated. with ad-

verse foreign news. On October 24 prices at Kansas City were 4 cents above

the loan rate; at St. Louis, Minneauolis (hard spring), and Portland they

were 2, 8, and 10 cents, respectively, below. Prices of domestic spring

wheat at Buffalo were about 12 cents higher than the price of Canadian wheat

of comparable quality, c.i.f., duty paid, at the same market. Large-quantity

imports of milling wheat are prever.ted by import quota restrictions on whet

end flour.

With a crop estimated at 961 million bushels and the July 1, 1941 carry

over placed at 387 million bushels, total supplies are now placed at 1,348

million bushels, 250 million bushels above the supply a year .go and about

100 million bushels above the record high in 1931. On the basis of present

pros)-'cts, domestic dic.ppear"nco is expected to total about b70 million

bushels and exports to continue restricted. This would indicate a carry-over

next July of about 6,70 million bushels. If the acreage in 1942 is reduced to

the acreage allotment fii.ire of 55 million acres, average yields would result

in a crop of only about 650 million bus-,els. Supplies thus would total about

1,300 million bushels compared with the 1,348W million bushels for the current



world wheat production, excluding the U.S.S.R. and China rnd also ex-

cluding continental Europe, where trade is restricted by the blockade, may be

about 140 million bushels below the 2,764 million bushels produced in 1940.

An ir.crease of about 100 million bushels, ho--ev?r, indic-.ted for continental

Europe, makes the estimate for the world total, excluding the U.S.S.R. and

China, slightly smaller than in 1940. October 25, 1941


OCB03MR 1941






ws-6o


- -


THE D"7STI7C '-2.? SITfUnION

BACK0GRCU-i.- In the 10-year period. 1931-40 the carry-over of
old wheat in the United States averaged about 230 million bush-
els, and domestic disar"e race about 688 million bushels.

Domestic wheat ices fro. the spring of 1933 to the
spring of 1937 ,.-ere unusually high in relation to world prices
rs the result of small crops in the United. States. In 1937
United States production was large and prices v-eclined. In
1938, with domestic production gain large, with a record world
crop, and with lower commodity prices generally, prices again
declined, and would have rverged still lower had it not been
for the loan end ep ort-!n7.bsidy programs which held domestic
prices above export parity.

Prices received -y prov'jr for wheat during the year be-
ginning July 1939 averu&e?' 09 cents, and for the year beginning
July 1, 1Q40, averaged 67 cents. In the 1939-40 year, prices
continued relatively high compared with the usual relationship
to prices in other countries, as a result of only a moderately
large carry-over, :'-duced ccre.-e, poor prospects for 1940
yields, and holding of wheat in expectation of higher prices.

Prices advanced sharply in September 1939, following the
outbreak of the Eu-'op i.n war, and again in December, influenced.
by war developn.-nts and. b, poor crop prosp_-cts in Argentina and
the United States. In the middle of May 1940, following the
turn of events in Europe, selling bec-me heavy and most of the
gains were lost. From the nii:le of May until the middle of
August prices declined saasonvlly, then they advanced until the
middle of November. After declining to the middle of February,
th;- again rose, influenced by new legislation affecting loan
rats and. are now little below the high level of 1937.

The 1941 wheat lonn rate, based on the July parity price
of wheat, rere--ents an a?-r'.ge national loan rate to farmers of
approximately 95 counts per bushel. In 1938-39 the loan averaged
53 cents, in 1939-40, 64 cents, and in 194o-41, 65-1/2 cents. At
important terminal r.:-k ts the loan values.for 1941 are as fol-
lo1s (1939-40 values in -nore.thesoc): iUo. 2 Hard Winter at
Kansas City $1.10 (.77) and at Chicago $1.15 (.81), No. 2 Red
Winter at St. Louis and 'at Chic.,go $1.15 (.9l), No. 1 Dark
ITorth-rn Spring at Minneapolis $1.15 (.S7), and No. 1 Soft White
White at Portland $1.05 (.73).

Domestic 1Wheat Croo Estimate Increased
3-1/ Million Bu hels

The October 1 -,timate of Vheat production totaling 961,194,000
bushels wa.s 3-1/2 million bushels larger than was indicated a month earlier.
This w.s the result of an increase of this quantity in the spring wheat
indication. Winter wheat production is unchanged from th-e August estimate






OCTOBER 1941


of 6U ,966 million bushels. The 1141 indicated production of all wheat is
18 percent above last year's harvest of 816,o9S,000 bushels, 29 percent
above the 10-year (1l30-39) average of 747,507,000 bushels, and second only
to the 1,005,637,000-buqhel crop in 1915.

Production of all spring wheat was indicated at 276,228,000 bushels,
compared with 227,547,000 bushels last ,'ear and the 10-year average of
178,090,OCD bushels. Yields based on late harvesting and threshing returns
were enough higher than the September 1 indications to add nearly 3-1/2
million bushels to the production estimate of a month ago, although test
weight and quality were lowered as a result of wet weather damage. The in-
crease was principally in T.orth Dakota. There were some offsetting decreases
in yields but none was ir ter than 1/2 bushel per acre in any State of im-
portance in spring wheat production. Further loss and damage can occur to
the grain that was still out on October 1, especially in North Dpkota and
Montana where there wa-s the highest percentage of unfinished harvesting.

Duraum wheat production was estimated at 44,490,000 bushels, compared
with 34,776,000 bushels last year and the 10-year average of 27,59,00 D
bushels. Yields materialized better tha-n anticipated, with incr'asos of 1/2
bushel per acre over September 1 in North Dakota, the le-ding d--um wheat
State, and in South Dakota. The Minnlsota yield ':-s a half bushel lower.
The nver-,ge yield for the durum wheat States was 16.9 bushels p'r acre, com-
pared with 11.1 bushels last ': .r and the 10-year .ver': ^ of 9.3 bushels per
acre. This is a record yield for durum wheat.

The production estimate for other spring ,'.he:,t was 231,738,000 bushels.
In 1940 it was 192,771,000 bushels and the average 150,492,000 bushels. North
Dakota largely accounts for the increase over the September 1 estimate. The
other-spring wheat yield of 16.8 bushels per acre also sets a top record, and
stands well above last year's 13.5 bushels and the 10-year average of 10.7
bushels per acr'. Even with the high wheat production and yields in most
States, only North Dakota is setting a new record with its estimated 17.5
bushels per acre for both durum and other spring wheat.

Wheat Supplies in 1942-43 May be Slightly
Below Present Year

With a crop estimnt-d at 961 million bushels and the July 1, 1941
carry-over placed at 387 million bure-ls, total supplies are now placed at
1,348 million bushels, 250 million bushels above the supply a year ago and
about 100 million bushels above the record high in 1931. On the basis of
present prospects, domestic disappearance is expected to total bout 570
million bushels and exports to continue restricted. This would indicate a
carry-over next July of about 650 million bushels. If the acreage in 1942 is
reduced to the acreage allotment figure of 55 million acres, average yields
would result in a crop of only about 650 million bushels. Supplies thus would
total about 1,300 million bushels compared with the 1,348 million bushels for
the current year.

Drought conditions over a large eastern area have become intense dur-
ing the past month. This is in contrast to a superabundance of moisture in
many interior sections of the country -*here field work is being delayed and







- 5--


outstanding crops damaged by continued wetness. From southern Kentucky
south,,ard and in the Atlantic area, the seedin:i of fall-grain crops has been
delayed because of continued dryness and considerable grain seeded in dust
is not germinating. Showers recently in the eastern Ohio Valley were helpful.
In the central, southwestern, and much of the western portions of the Winter
Yheet Belt seeding has been delayed by- too much rain. Reports indicate that
many fields in the lower Great Plains, especially Oklahoma, will have to be
reseeded. In these interior sections all early seeded wheat has come up to
good stands and is growing rapidly. In the northern Plains, and generally
from the Rocky Mountains westward, conditions are satisfactory nearly
everywhere.

Cc-tober 1 Farm Stocks Slightly Larger
Than 1931 Record

Stocks of wheat on farms on October 1 (including wheat on farms under
Government loans) were estimated at 492,324,000 bushels, slightly more than
the 490,594,000 bushels in 1931, the previous peak in records extending back
to 19?6. Stocks this year were 123 million bushels lar.;er than a year earlier
and 155 million bushels above the 10-year (1930-39) average. A considerably
highei- percentage than usual of the wheat crop was still on farms in North
Dakota, Montana, and Washington, States in which the harvest was delayed by
vet weather. Stocks on farms this year were 46.9 percent of the 1,050.3
million bushels farm supply for the 'ear beginning July 1 (farm stocks July 1
plus production), compared with 50.1 percent in 1931, 41.1 percent in 1940,
and the 10-year average of 41.8 percent.

The disappearance of wheat from farms between July 1 and October 1 was
558 million bushels. In other words, 53.1 percent of farm supplies were either
moved off farms or used on farms between July 1 and October 1. This movement
from ferns was larger than that of last year (530 million bushels) and larger
than cver go (470 million bushels).

October 1 stocks in 3 positions (on farms, in interior rills and
elevators, rnd in commercial centers) for 3 years and the 1934-39 average are
shown in table 1. These 3 items together total 1,001 million bushels, 260
milli-n buchels above a year earlier. Figures for merchant mills will be
available in early November.

Table 1;- Wheat stocks in interior mills anzd elevators, on farms and
in cities (commercial) on October 1, average 1934-39,
caL.~1u,-1 1939-41

I tern : Average : : :
Item 4-O : 1939 : 1940 1941


: 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels

Interior mills and elevators: 134,522 155,862
Farm stocks ...............: 299,985 338,658
Commercial stocks ..........: 120,897 161,987


Total in 3. positions ...:


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels

185,488 223,975
369,447 492,324
186,523 284,920

741,458 1,001,219


555,404 656, 507





OCTOBER 141 -


Domestic W.cat Prices 0 ly S1--htly
Below Prices a ?"o-th A.o

Domestic -;.l-cat prices recently decline,' sharply but tien recovered
and on October 24 Yore generally only about 3 cui.ts telo.v prices a ro-ith
earlier, and about 7 cents below the high for the sersor to drte. After
rising sliqgtly in the latter part of Septe.mber, prices declined gradually
until mid-October, reflecting the disturbed international situation. Cn
October 16 futures dropped the limit of 10 certs rpoon reports of German
successes in Soviet' Russia and the fall of the Japanesc Cabinet. In a few
days, however, the market recovered its 10-cent loss with millers ar.d other
processors as v.ell as speculators taking advantage of the low prices -
prices well below the loan values. Prices significantly below loan rates
tend to restrict marketing and thereby support prices. On October 24
prices at Kansas City had risen to 4 cents above the loan rate but at
St. Louis, i.'tineaoolis (hard spring), and Portland they were 2, 8, and 10
cents, respectively, below.

Prices of domestic spring wheat at Buffalo on October 24 were about
12 cents L ~her than toe price of Caradian1 wteat of comparable quality,
c.i.fo, duty "aid, at the same market (table 3). On Septerber 9 it was
widest, reac-.lng 17-3/4 cents. Large-quantity imports were prevented by
import quota restrictions. 1/ Table 3 also shows f.o.b. prices at ports in
Canada, Argentina, and Lustralia.

Table 2..- Wei_; hted average cash price of' heart, specified markets
and dates, 194C-41
:All classes: Lc. 2 : T : I;o.'2 I:ard : i Jo. 2 : Soft
Sionth :and grades : :ra'd !irnter :Dk.N.Spring :A be'r Duruj. : Red Viinter: White
and :six iarkets:!fansas City::in:'eapoliq:.i nieapolis: St. louis :Portland 1/
date :1940: 1941: 19KO: 19T: 1 l.,: 1:1: :1 Nr': 1941: 194C: 1941: ]940- 143

:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cc'it: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cente
M.onth- : --- -- --
July : 72.4 98.7 70.7 98.3 78.8 100.4 77.4 99.3 75.6 103.1 73.5 86.E
Aug. : 72.6 105.0 69.3 106,6 73.5 106,1 76.6 108.0 76.6 108.5 73.3 94.a
Sept. : 78.2 111.6 75.8 114.1 81,8 113.5 83.5 118.2 82.6 115.9 74.3 97.0
Week :
ended :
Sept. 6: 77.9 109.4 74.5 111.8 79.8 109.9 82,6 114.3 80.7 113.4 74.1 96.,
13: 76,3 114.9 73.9 115.9 80.1 115.9 83.3 121.6 82.6 116.9 72.8 9C,4
20: 77.7 113.0 75o6 114.0 80.6 116.1 82.4 121.7 82.5 115.3 74.3 97.,
27: 80.0 109.4 77.0 113.3 84.0 111.8 84.9 118.0 C5.4 114.2 75.7 96.r
Oct. 4: 82,3 110.8 79.3 114.9 86.5 114.4 87.2 118.2 88.3 116.8 75.2 95.,
11: 8.2.8 102.7 81.2 112.9 88.5 111.6 89.2 114.7 .89.1 113.3 74.3 94.2
18: 83.1 93.1 81.5 110.0 .90.1 105.6 90.5 101.4 90.8 111.0 75.6 92.'

High 2/: 86.1 114.9 81.5 115.9 90.1 116.1 90.5 121.7 90.8 116.9 75.7 99.4
Low 2/: 71.2 96.9 68.1 96.8 72.0 98.2 72.3 '6.5 73.3 1C2.4 71.9 .4.

I/ .eely avera e of daily cash quobations, basis "'o. 1 sacked.
2/ July 5 to CtL. 18, 1941 and corresponding dates 1940,

1T The quota established for im,)orts of Canadiair wheat (other than wheat unfit
for human conczurtion), placed at 795,000 bushels for the year beginning
May 29, 1941, was filled during the vwek ended September 20, 1941.


- 6 -







VS-60


Table 5.- Whest prices per bushel in four exporting countries,
Friday nearest mid-month, JO.rnury-September 1941,
and weekly, October 1941
:~ Har-d whea :Hard and sei -hard: Soft wheat
D : UI-. S. : Canada : wheat : U. S. :Austra-
e :o. 1 D. :.Sp.: U. -. :Arge-ni-r- : lia
(Friday 1N o. 2 .an. No. 1 ---
(Friday 15 percent :Vo 2 :. 1 ganti ...
m i- 1 lan*: To. 1 : Rosafe Port-
month) protein : uffalo: Nor.treal : D.FI.W. : fob, a *O.o.
: Buffalo : : fo.b. 1/:Galverton: 3/ : f : 4/
._c.i.f :duty paid f. /.-- -
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

Jan. 18: 98-3/8 111 --- 94-7/8 50.4 76 68.1
Feb. 14: 91-1/8 111-5/8 --- 86-3/8 52.0 74 68.1
Mar. 14: 97 114-3/4 81.6 93-3/4 51.7 77 69.4
Apr. 18: 100-1/8 115-3/4 80.7 99-1/2 51.1 76 69.4
May 16: 108-5/4 116 82.0 104-1/2 52.0 84 69.4
June 13: 110 116-1/4 82.0 106-5/8 52.0 92 69.4
July 18: 106-1/8 115-1/8 81.6 111 53.0 83 69.4
Aug. 15: 119-1/4 114-1/8 80.1 121-3/4 53.0 94 69,4
Sept.12: 128-1/4 113-7/8 79.1 128 53.6 100 69.4

Oct. 3: 127-5/8 124-3/8 81.6 126-3/8 53.6 95 69.4
10: 12E-3/8 121-3/8 79.1 123-3/4 53.6 94 69.4
17: 110-7/8 119-1/4 77.5 117 53.6 92-1/2 69.4
24: 123-7/8 111-3/4 78.8 122-5/8 54.2 95 69.4

Current average farm prices are less than quotation about as follows:
1/ Canada 28 cents, 2/ United States 30 cents, 3/ Argentina 13 cents, and
4/ Australia 10 cents.

THE 'GRLD T.TEAT SITUATION

BACKGROU!D.- Total world supplies of wheat, excluding Soviet Russia
and China, increased sharply front 1924 to 1933, largely as a result
of increased acreage. From 1934 to 1936, supplies declined, follow-
ing successive years of small yields and increased world demand.
Supplies increased slightly in 1937. With above-average yields on
the large acreage, supplies in 1938, 1939, and 1940 were the largest
on record, and prospects for 1941 are for another large crop.

World wheat prices declined in the period 1924-33 with the
increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in prices after 1929
was caused largely by the general decline in industrial activity
and commodity prices. From the spring of 1933 to the summer of
1937, world wheat prices moved upward, reflecting world-wide re-
covery in commodity price levels, currency depreciation, and re-
duced production. The world price for the 1937 crop remained
practically unchanged from that of a year earlier. In 1938, world
prices again declined sharply as a result of record world produc-
tion and weakness in demand. Prices in 1939-40 remained low but
averaged higher than a year earlier, influenced by general expecta-
tions of increased demand for wheat as a result of the war, and by


- 7 -






OCTOBER 1941


poor crop prospects in Argentina and the T.nited States. In 1940-41
large supplies in surplus countries and reduced trade held world
wheat prices to low levels.

Vornld wheat and flour exoorts in 1937-3S vere about 518
million bushels, in 193S-39 about 638 million bushels, and in 1939-40
about 625 million bushels. 7With reduced shipping in 1940-41, as
the result of the bloc':.:de and other conditions, exports of i.heat
and flour declined to about 465 million bushels, Net exports fror
the .United States in 1937-38 :esre 99 million bushels, in 1936-39 they
were 106 ni.llion bushels, in 1939-40, 45 million bushels, a.-fi in
1940-41 they were d-mv to 34 million bushels.

World Whe&+ Production, Excluding Continental
Europe, *Te U.S.S.R., and China
1..timatod 10C millionn Bushels 'elow 1940

It still appears that world wheat production, excluding the U.S.S.R.
and China and also excluding continental Europe, Vhere trade is restricted
by the blcckade, may be about 140 million bushels below the 2,764 million
bushels produced in these same countries in 1940. 2/ Towever, an increase
of about 100 million bushels is indicated for contTnental Eurooe so that the
world total, excluding the U.S.S.R. and China, is slightly smaller than in
1940.

The total of 3,520 million bushels now indicated for the Northern
Hemisphere represents a decrease of 23 million bushels from the indication a
month azo, largely due-to declines reported from Europe, notably Italy,
Portugal, and Sweden. The estimate for Europe for 1940 was also revised
from 1,325 to 1,300 million bushels largely because of reductions in the
estimates for Italy and Spain.i

The United States crop at 961,194,000 bushels is 145 million bushels
larger than. in 190C. The first official estimate for Canada places the crop
at 306,459,C1() bushels, consisting of 290,042,000 bushels of spring wheat and
16,417,000 bushels of v.inter -.ihc.t. The -resent estimate is 245 million
bushels smaller than the very large crop of 551 r million bushels produced in
1940. As a result of unfavorable harvesting conditions, especially in the
Peace River area, however, the November estimate is expected to show some
reduction from the first estimate.

T-3 present crop in continental Europe indicated at about 1,Z30 million
bushels is larger than the very small crop of about 1,227 million bushels
produced lost year but still below the 10-year (1931-40) average of 1,509
million bur -,i s. Production in Spain is estimated at 108,944 ,000 bushels
compared with 79,412,000 bushels last year, and that in Portugal at 14,882,000
bushels core-ared with 9,921,000 last year. Wheat production in France is
reported somiowhat above last years small outturn but still considerably

27 Continent.l urope is excluded from the total because it is largely out of
The uorld traw0o picture at the -resent time. This figure should not be con-
fused with the previously published total which included continental Europe;
nor should the present figure for continental Europe be confused with that
previously published for all of Europe.


- 8 -









below average. The crop in Italy is placed as 262,715,000 bushels comrvared
with 261,252,000 bushels ite revised figure for last year. The crop in the
Scandinavian countries is reported to be snail, with Sweden at 12,493,000
bushels compared -.rith 15,459,000 bushels last year. In the United Kingdom
production is vell above pre-rwar with fair yields on increased -.crosse.

The estimate for the crop in Asia is somc..hct reduced from a month
ago. The indicated qoitturn in Japan is 53 million bushels compared with
59,371,000 a month ano, .,id 66,134 million bushels a year.a.go. The crop in
India is placed at 374 million bushels compared i:. 405. i'.iil1ion, bushels in
'140. The crop in Turkey appears 'to be significantly below the 151 million
bushels a year ago.

The crop in jxg c.tina has been deteriorating. 7Jhile the crop in the
. South and Centr.a sections remains fairly satisfactory, in the :'orth prospects
are poor in many regions-as the result of frosts in September and continued
dryness. In late October severe frosts again covered large areas of Duenos
Aires, and parts of south Santa Fe and eastern Parpa. On the basis of the
reported sona area average yields would give an outturn of about 215 million
bushels. howeverr, at the present time it appears that yields raill do well
to reach average. The seeded acreage is nov,w placed at 17,915,000 acres,
which is nearly 2-1/2 pprcornb larger than la:t yoe'r's acreage. The crop in
Australia has been officially (prelimiJrary) placed at 145 million bushels.
It is reported that scaldng r"rnd are required in-ew South Wales, but that
elsewhere conditions are favorable.

Soil Conditions Favorable for
NF'w Crop in Europe

Soil conditions are favorable for starting the next crop in E'Irope.
The season is backward, however, and seeding has been delayed. Lost coun-
tries are reported planning increases in wheat acreages. Li.iti.n factors
in many areas include shortages of labor, draft po..cr, and fertilizer, and
in some areas also rmvr activity.


- 9 -


VWS-60






OCTOBER 1941


Table 4.-.1', eat: Preduction, in s'-,cifi cd.co.'trios, 1930-41

Courry :r 1938 1939 1940 / 1941 1/
: : *
l: 1,0C') C 1, C00 1,000
: bu ~elc bis' ~s bushols bushels
Fortherr P Femi sa ",s c:" : ~. ~~ ~'~.. .
United States ......................: 931,702 751,435 816,698 961,1S4
Can.ada .............................: 33,0C1C 52C,f2 551,390 306,500
exico ............ .................: 11,c ] 4 771 13,337 12,500
Total (3) ........................: 1,30S', 51 l,233,C29 1,381,425 1,280,190
Continental Wroc (26) ............: 1, ,2,CC ,227,000,330,
British Isles (4) ................... 81,000 72,6C'i 73,000 80,000
Europe ( 30 ..... .......... ..... ,00 ,' 1,3, 141 00
North Africa (4) ...................: 11F,C0 149,( 113, 00 125C,000
Asia (6) ..........................: 639,000 626,*%' 660,0r0 595,000
Total 43 countries o...........: 3,911,0: C",7E6,CC 3,454,000 3,413,000
Estimated .P)rthern Hemi sphere :
total, excluding Soviet :
Russia and China 2/ a......: 4,Clc,OOC 3,3,.CO 3,561,000 3,520,000

Southern He isphoreo
Argentina ............,............: 37C,142 119,453 271,141 215,000
Australia *.........................: 155,3C8 210,248 82,640 145,000
Union of South Africa *.............: 17,093 15,310 16,240 16,000
Estimated world total, exclud- :
ir-g Soviet Russia and Clio 2/: 4,658,000 4,269,0CO 3,991,000 3,956,000

17 Data are, in many instancejs, unofficial forecasts and should be interpreted
as indications only.
2/ Inoludes, besides countries listed, estimates for wheat-producing countries
for which reports are not available.

Prices in 'iinniipr and Buenos Aires .
Continue Steady

Prices in both Winnipeg and Duenos Aires, where dniimum prices are in
effect, have continued to fluctuate very little, and average only slightly
different from r-ices a month ago (tables 3 and 5).


-.10 -






- 11 -


Table 5.- Average closing price of December wheat futures,
specified. rarkcts and dates, 1940Q-41

Winnipeg 1_/ Iurnos Aires : Chicago : Kenses City : Minneapolis
eriod 140 1941 1940 1941 : 194 1941 1940 o 1941, 1940 \ 1941
9. 9. : 9 9 9 9
: ents Cents' Cents Ccnts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Month -
July ': 67.8 71.5. -- 76.2 107.3 70.7 99.9 75.2 102.4
:Aug. 67.8 69.3 --. 74.0 115.3' 68.3 108.1 72.1 110.1
Sept. : 66.y 67,8 -- 78.1 121.7 73.0 115.3 77.1 116.3
Week :
ended :
Sept. 6 : 67,8 67.8 2/65.6 3/55.4 77.2 120.2 72.2 113.9 76.4 115.4
13 : 67.8 68.3 2/63.o 5/55.2 76.3 123.1 71.2 117.2 75.5 118.2
20 : 66,0 67.6 2/58.7 3/55.0 77.5 121.5 72.4 115.2 76.4 115.5
27 : 655 67.3 3/55.0 5/55.4 80.2 121.3 75.3 115.1 79.2 115.7
Oct. 4 : 65.6 69.7 3/51,2 5/55.6 82.2 122,4 '-76.8 115.0 so.4 116.6
11 : 65.,2 69.4"/50.8 0564 82.8 119.5 77.2 113.0 80.8 113.7
18 : 65.1 67ol _/45.3 56.7 85,4. 112,8 79.9 107.6 83.2 107.8

High 4/ : 67,8 72.2 5/77.1 6/56.7 85.4 123.1 79.2 117.2 83.2 118.2
Low -f : 65,1 67.1 H/46 3 60 /55.0 71.9 106.1 66.4 98.8 70.5 101.2
l/ Conversions at official rate, which is 90.909 cents. .ty United. States buyer
of Canadian grain would be required to make settlement in terms of United States
dollars through an agent of the CanLiiin Foreign Exchar geControl Board at the
official rate,
2/ Oct. futures.
yov. futures.
July 5 to Oct. 18, 1941, and corresponding dates, 1940.
Oct. end Nov, futures.
ITov. and Dec. futures.

Table 6.- Estimatod what surplus for export or carr:r-over in four
important exporting countries, Oct. 1, 1938-41 l/

Position 1938 1939 1940 ; 1941
: Million Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels

United States ..............., 333 310 420 669
Canada ....................... 239 464 66g 587

Australia ....................: 23 32 91 2/ 42
Argentina .................... ____ 45_____ 181 30 106
Total ................... 640 987 1,209 1,404
l/ Carry-over at the beginning of the year (United States, July 1; Canada
August 1; Argentina, January 1; Australia, D:ccmber 1 of the previous year)
plus production minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly exports
to date. Exports for Septcmbor for United States, Australia, and Argentina, are
estimated,
2/ Based on official exports through February 1940, and unofficial estimates
for succeeding months,


WS-60o






CCT'BEFR 10o 12 -

Teble 7.- Movement of whert, incluein- flour, from principal
exporting countries, 1938-39 to 141-412 l_/

: '_rorts as given by off-ic so~urc-sr
Country : Tc .al : July 1 to date so.m : DFte
__________ :193-39 :19-40 :i1L'-1 ;i1.-o ;:l4c-41 :10jl-L.___ ___:
S1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,C,").
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bush-ls:

United States 2/: 115,784 54,274 40,670 16,205 6,674 5,550: Aki. 31
Canada .........: 159,585 210,212 209,553 45,091 39,250 63,4 5: Seet. 30
krz-entina ......: 116,116 177,246 100,062 27,439 24,150 17,620: AuI,-. 31

___: ShiTments as given by trade sources _______
: Total : VLek ended !~-l : July 1-ct. 13_
:1939-40 :194o-41 Oct. 4 .:ct. 11 :Oct. 18 :.1i4l-4;l. :141-..42 -2
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,00 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bti-r Ls bnushr'ls

lTorth America ..: 209,872 221,087 4,273 3,219 3,962 84,5 5 71,391
Argentina ...... 173,776 9a ,420 2,000 1,124 1,514 -j,3j_55 26,620
Total ..... 383,648 319,507 q.- P. 6,o20 F,511

!J See June 1941 Wheat Situation for latest available finuires for courTtrIes-other
than those shown. 2/ Includes flour milled in bond from foreign .'heat. ~/ From /
Broomhall's Corn Tr:ie UT-ws and Chicaeo Daily Trsae Bulletin.

Table 8.- Percentage of hard red scoring, and durum -,.heat in
specified grades, average 1934-40, annual 1940-41
(Based on inspected receipts at representative markets, August 1 to Seotember 30)

Hard Red S-;.r-ing ,hee't :__: D'irum wheat
t u : Average: : : Average:
clasItem su :9344o: 1940 : 1q41 : Sula :134-40: 1940 : lq41
class class : i 1 1
S: .I/ : : s :. 1/ : .
: Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

:Dk.N.S. 97 97 98 H.A.Du. 96 89 91
:N.S. 3 3 2 A.D. 3 9 S
: Durum 1 2 1
Grade
1 Feavy : 12 18 8 -- -- ---
1 : 23 46 3S 35 23 22
2 : 15 18 22 37 54 46
3 21 14 25 1 15 15
4 12 3 5 7 4 7
5 8 1 1 b 2 4
Smnrle 9 0 1 2 2 b
Special grades :
To- :2 1 2 2 2 6 13
Light Smutty : 1 1 1 0 0 0
Smutty 1. 0 0 0 0 0

I/ Aug. 1 to Oct. 31.






- 13 -


Table 9.-H ard red winter whect: estimatedd United States supply and
distribution, and price at Kansas City, 1929-41


e : .:. :E'qorts :Do : : : Price
Year Domestic
begin- Sto ks tinclud- : .di : Stocks : per bushel
e :Crop' t : ing : aJune 30 : No. 2
ning July 1 supply : flour : appear-p : Hard
July : : 1/ : ance : : inter


3
p


Million Million Million
bushels bushel' bushels


371
4o4
514
281
177
208
203
260
373
39q0
309-
315
5/391


465
S52%4
667
519
378
333
271
317
410
450
423
450
5/551


. 94
120
153
238
201
.125
68
57
37
60
114
135
16o


Million
bushel s


82
65
85
22
4.
3
2
3
69.
68
22
6
(4)


Million Million
bushels "bushel s Cents


263
306
344
296
249
262
212
257
281
268
266
28g4
(275)


120
153
238
201
125
68
57
57
60
114
135
160
(272)


119.6
75.5
46.9
50.9
S8.5
98.1
105'.1
121.4
110.8
69.5
74.1
81.9


l7 Exports plus shipment to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico; include flour
made wholly from domestic wheat.
2/ Balancing -item.
Stocks June 30, 1930-37 included some new wheat.
4V/ Weighted average; carlot sales reported in Kansas City Grain Market
Review.
5/ Preliminary.


ws-60


1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
193 S
1939
1940
1941


k




OCTOB2r 1P1 -. LIIIIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08861 8482
W.'ERE TO FIIT STATISTICS OF THE U'EAT SITTUATICN NOT I'TTCLTFD II THIS ISSUE: Il;
* --_______


THE DOMESTIC '.HEAT SITUATIOi:
Supnly -and distribution
All wheat, 1923-Z 0d .................................
Classes, July-June, 1929-39 ........... .............
Classes, 1940, 1942 ...............................
Supplies for export a-nd carry-over, 1923-39 ........

Acreage, yield, and production
Acreage sees& by regions, 1919-40 .................
Acreage, yild, and production, all wheat, winter
wheat aze spring wheat ...........................
Production by classes, 1919-40 .....................

Stocks
January 1, 1935-41 .................... ..........
July 1, 1923-40 ....................................

Exports and iiiports
Exports of wheat including flour to specified
countries, 1910-39 .........................
Imports into the Unitef: States, 1923-40 ............

Sales and incurme, and prices
Production and farm disposition, 1909-40 ...........
Sales, price per bushel, and cash income, 1910-40 ..
Percentage monthly sales, average 192S-37, and
annual 1928-39 ..................................

THE WORLD 'TIEA.T SITUATION
Supply and distribution.
1922- ............................................
1938-4o .................... ...... ...... ............
Averages 1924-28, 1928-37, annual 1914, 1937 .......

Acreage and production
Acreage of wheat, world and specified countries,
1909-40 ...................................... ..
Production of whnt, world and specified countries,
1909-40 ......... .................... .. ........
Production by countries, 1937-40 ...................
Acr3,-ae, yield, and production, world, excluding
the U.S.S.R. end China ............................

Stocks, July 1
1922-40 ..............................................
Mp.jor exporting countries, 1922-42 ..............


Page


I s sue


Aug. 1941
Aug. 1941
Aug. 1941
July iq4i


6-8
14


4
2



27
23


WS-58

WS-58
1S-57


Aug. 19l1 VS-58
Dec. 1940 1 S-50


Feb.
Aug.



Aug.
Aug.


1941
1941


wS-52
WS-58


1940 WS-46
1941 WS-58


May 1941
Feb. 1941


WS-55
VS-52


15 N ov. 1940 ,S-49


Mar.
Mar.
Sept


1941
1941
.1939


'Vs-53
ws-53
WS-35


17 June 1941 1S-56


18 June
8 Jan.


1941
1941


US-56
Ws-51


9 Aug. 1941 US-58


15 Mar.
5 Aug.


1941
1941


%s-53
WS-58


International trade
International trade in lheot including flour,
averages 1925-34, annual 1937-39 ................ 16 Feb. 1941 WS-52
World shipments and to Turope and non-Europe, av-
ern 110-14_, 1930-4, and :nu-l 10i914-1601937-TS 7 Sept.1939 IS-55
1_ Selected tables used most frqcu?ntly.
: STATISTICS ON THE RYE SITULTIOr: I: "TE '-V LT SITUA.TIOfT" JITE AD AUGUST 1941:


13 Sept.1941 1W-59




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