Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00054

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.4


THE


SITUATION


WS-43


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

MAY 25, I


940


DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. WHEAT SUPPLY, 1910-39

BUSHELS
(MILLIONS) Stocks December 31
1.600 Exports *
Domestic disappearance "

1.400

1.200 -

1.000 - - -

800 -

600 - - - -

400 - - - -

200 - - - -
200

0
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935
CALENDAR YEAR BASIS *INCLUDES FLOUR MILLED FROM DOMESTIC WHEAT
A INCLUDES FOOD. FEED. AND SEED f PRELIMINARY


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 38353 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


VARIATIONS IN TOTAL DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE DEPEND LARGELY ON THE QUANTITY
OF WHEAT FED; THE QUANTITY USED FOR FOOD AND SEED CHANGES RELATIVELY LITTLE
FROM YEAR TO YEAR. EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES HAVE DECLINED FROM THE
LEVELS OF THE LATE 20'S WITH THE DECLINE IN WORLD WHEAT TRADE GENERALLY. SIZ-
ABLE EXPORTS IN 1938 AND 1939 WERE MADE POSSIBLE BY GOVERNMENT SUBSIDY. STOCKS
IN THE LAST FEw YEARS HAVE BEEN HELD DOWN BY THE EXPORT SUBSIDY AND ACREAGE
ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS; IN DECEMBER 1939 THEY TOTALED 654 MILLION BUSHELS COMPARED
WITH 729 MILLION BUSHELS AT THE 1932 PEAK.






Ws-43 2-


HE WHEAT S I UAT IOI
-------. ----



The domestic wheat sup?-,ly in 19.5'-l- is expected to tot'l anprroxi-

mately 963 million b-h.-h-els according to present indications. This includes

an estimated 1940 crop of 575 million bushels and a July 1 1, '0 carry-over

of 21" million bushels. On the basis of supplies of 953 million n b'ishols,

and prospects that domestic dis-5,al ca.c.-.ce in 19-14Cn! may total about 565

million --.dls, cndhirmr:nts to ..-: possessions 3 m ion ~ushels, the

quantity available for c:nort and for carry-over on July 3, 1941 would be

about 2)5 million bushels.

Dr 'Itic wheat pric-s, influonco.d largely by improved cmcrcstic crop

conditions and hoavy market receipts, Coclincd. steadily in l.tc April and

early May, and then dro- pped precipitously following the recent turn of events

in Eur-ne. On May 2 the July a--:- at Chicago closed at J2-3/8 cents,

down 27 cents from the av'r:- for the oeek crnied A-rril 20 :'hon r:'ices wore

the hi-,h:-st since the f ll of 1937. Following a decline of tli 10I-ccnt limit

on both I.M~ il4 and 15 and a sub...;quont net decline of anoth. r Inl c.'nts, on

May 20 .t the request of the Socretary of Agriculture, mirimiu- lut-ure prices

e'.,ro established by the various rain cxchanCes, ind price i: ccn have- been

abovo the minimium,. Str.:.irti in ,r..:tina prices, the cst'blislin..t of ninimun

priccs in Canada., dand ..eavy domestic flour purchases also wr.:. Etron.ehening

factors.

The w:.oat loan rrora'. for the ICr40 crop, with lo-r. values to producers

at sli-I.tly I: -hecr levels than the fixed futures prices, w-.s l] ro n-:cu.ccd

on May 20. The -.v 'r .-c: lonn value to producers were est abli slrd at about 64

cents a bushel, which is 1 cent higher th.-r under the 1939 program.






ws-43 3-

The,'t prices in United St.ates markets have declined somewhat more

than those of Tinnineg and TBunos Aires, but they still continue high in

comn'-.rincn with hlie.at prices in these other -mrktts. Prices of hard winter

wheat at Gulf rorts are about 26-1/2 cents above export parity, and those

at Pacific :orts, a-out 22-1/2 cents above. Prices of domestic spring wheat

at -ufft;lo i-- about 14 cents lower thrn approximately the sane quality of

Can-dicn :.'i.ci, c.i.f. duty paid, at 7-uffalo. Four weeks ago prices at Gulf

ports '..:er 23 cents above export parity .and prices at Buffalo 9 cents lower

than a pror:i'.at-ly the sne quality of Canadian wheat, c.i.f., duty paid, at

Buffalo.

heI-t stocks on April 1, 19C0 ':wreo esti-!atcd at 438 million bushels,

which is about b million bushels less than on April 1, a year ago. Since

tot.l -tocks on January 1 wore cstinated at 615 million bushels, the esti-

nated Ar.:il 1 stocks indicate a 3--onth totnl disap':oarcnce of 177 million

bushel, or 33 -;illion bushels loss than disa-ppearance during Ji-u.ry,--2.I-rch

of last ,'c.ar. About 11 million bushels of the disappearance during the first

quarter of this year represented exports, co:.:p,"red with 33 million bushels

exported in th,: first quarter of 1939.

Gre~7i:i conditions for the 19l40 world .;heat crop 1/ continue below

nornal. i.n :.ny important producing areas,' and the crop will require favorable

conditions f"'r the ronairnder of the rcn.-eon to nakoe a-vr-ge yields per acre.

With no i-cra.e i ancror,- c probable, -ad sono docroese possible, and with the

short".oe of f7-vi l-abr and probable dr.ungo to growing crops in invaded areas

of EDrow-, it s,.ens re--aso--:.1a to continue to expect that the 1940 world crop

will be s.:.aller than thrit of 1939, when yields were above aveor".c.

Acr-.-o decreases are reportJcl for the United States, Tr.',nia, Yugo-

slavia aLd Iniia. Of the other countries for which reports -.rce available, the

_/ All rfcrcrnce to world acroege, production, and stocks in this report exr-
clude Soviet Russin,' nd China e::cpct :whro otherwise noted,






-7s-43 -

change in the acreage in Canada is the only one of significance. In Canada

an increase of 6 percent in the 1940 spring wheat acreage, compared with

that of 1939 is indicated by farmers1 intentions to plant. If intentions are

carried out the total wheat acreage h :.-ve-ted in Canada this year will be

28.2 million acres, an increase of 1. -illion acres over last year.

On the basis of unofficial reports, crop conditions in western Europe

are indicated to have improved during the past month but c.re still below

those of a year ago. In northern Europe the season is still reported to be

very back'lrd. More favorable weather in the Balkans is benefiting the crop.

An abo-vc aver.'.ge winter-kill is reported for most of Europe, though in some

countries such as France, it appears to bc lCss than was feared earlier. In

the United Kingdom conditions -are improving, and with increased seeding of

spring whe.at it is believed that the outturn may be equal to or even exceed

that of a :ycn.r apoc.

If ,yields per acre in 1940 turn out to be significantly below r.verage

and the total acreage is no larger, production would be less thnn ..orld con-

sumption and the carry-over at the end of the 1940-41 se-son would be smaller

than the prosryctive July 1940 carry-o-.--r.

THE TOLD WHEAT SITI'ATIOIl Il; 1939-40 2/

BAC}.YROLTD.- Total world suiplics of v.whot incroe?.d sharply
from 1924 to 1933, as a re-alt of both incre'sced acr. .goe _-nd
yields. rrc.i 1934 to 1936, vorld cupplios declined, following
successive yiers of small yields -nd increased world dnoir.d.
Supplies increased slightly in 1937. 7ith abo-e v-.cr:'ge yields
on the large acrc-:c, supplies in 193S and 1939 w..erc the l.rgost
on record.

Total world shipments of whn.t averarcd 751 million
bu-h-ls for the period 1923- 7, reached a peak of 913 million
bushels in the ycar beginnin- July 192S, ind then declined
sharply, l.:a.ely as a result of the measures t;kenm by import-
ing countries to reduce the use of foreign -wheat. World ship-
ments Wero 598 million bushel.3 for the yrar beginning July 1,
1935. Th',y are expected to bc lcss during the current season.

2/ All references to world acroage, production, Pr.d stocks in this report
exclude Soviet Russia and China except whore noted.






S-43 5

World wheat prices declined in the period 1924-33 7ith:
the increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in prices
after lq29 v.as caused largely by the general decline in in-
dustrial activity and commodity prices. From the spring of
1933 to the sunmcr of 1937, world .whe:t prices nove.d upvwrd,
reflecting .world-ride recovery in commodity price levels,
currency direreciation, and reduced production. The world
price for the 1937 crop remained practically unchr-icd from
that of a yea-r c&rlier. In 1938, world prices again declined
sharply as a result of record world production and weakness
of demacd. In November and December 1939, prices advanced,
influenced by the ERiropean .7ar and by poor crop prospects in
Argantir.,a nd the United States.

Smn.llcr 19i4(' ..orlld wheat cr2o in pros~oct

Gro.Tini.: conditions for the 1940 world wheat crop continue below normal
in many important producing areas, and the crop will require favorable condi-
tions for the remaLi-ner of the season to make average yields per acre. Tith
no incr=aso i-i acreage probahlc, and. sone decrease possible, and with short-
age of fara labor -aid probL.blc damage to growing crops in invaded areas,
.it scmTs-ro.aor.ablc to continue to expect that the 1940 world crop will be
srmuiLcr thnr. that of 1939, when yields were.above average.

stinuated ncr-r.-ge of all what harvested or for harvest in the United
-Sttr.t-s ..nd Cin.da aid J7inber vrheat somn in the European countries reporting
arc *-Go;_..in --blc 1. The total of these few reporting countries sh-ows a
decrex e of 3 rercent, compared .:-ith last years. acrcm.-e. The decrease is.
largely thu rzult of docra.s.-s in the acreage in the-United Statos, Rumnia,.
Yagosl-via, 2,i India. Other iLp) rt.1nt producing countries show increases*

TaLle 1,- Wirtcr whi .t area co-n in specified countries
for harvest, 1937-40

Country 197 : 193 1939 194o
: l,.'I .cr.- 1.0 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres

tUnited.St-'tcas _/ ..: 6L,422 69, g69 53,59o 2_/'50,762
Cana ..1/ .........: 25,570 25,930 26,756 28,246
Grecce ...........: 2,117 2,062 2, 20 2,557
7357 365 346
_Tithnania .........: 379 357 65 346
LuxcmbuL.-g .......... : 5 56 38 35
Ramania. ...........: 7.,964 8,797 9,556 7,798
TugosLxia ......: 5, 5 5,236 1/ 5,565 I/ 4,94o
I ypt... ...... ....: 1, 421 1,470 1C, 1 1,503
J.par ........: 1 ,7; D 1,777 1,927 2,001
India 4/ ..........: 7__ __J 43 34 ,94l 33,666
Total ...........: 1+2,07g 150 97 136,565 13,5
SAcrcn-ao e o all -.-'ho7t hrrvsted or for ha.rvct.
SOff-LaJ. czl stimrte of winter ',hoeut ucr:--e reminiL.'i for har'-st, plus
'ranfficial cstirar.te for acreage of spring heat for ha.rvoet, brtsed on avor-
-ago -ah-arlmer.t for 1929-39, omitting 1934 and 1936.
/ Unofficial act nato.
Matr aStimat ..






ws-b3


." 6.-


In Caipda an increase of 6 ocrcent in the 1943 sDring wheat acreage,
compare with that of 1939, is indicated by farmers' intentions to plant.
If intentions are carried out the total -:he-Lt acre.rge harvested in Canada
this ,-ea r, will be 28,245,900 acres, or ain ilcreale of 1,4E9,0.ju. ac.:es over
the harvested acreage in 12 J. Of this prosectivP a-lerae 711,000 acres
represent fall wheat remaining for harvest, ;7hizh is a d-crm eo from that
of last year. 'Winter.-kill this season wau 5 pe.'cent of the acreage sown.
The remaining 27,534,900 acros rupr-osu-nt intuntlde, planitifngs of spring wheat
over 99 percent of which h is raised in the three Frairic Provincos. Of this
year's prospective acreun of spring wheat, 15,197,000 ci'eo arc planned for
Sasbatche:-an; g,630,OOU, for Alberta; and 3,496,'00, for LMrnatobe.

On April 30, only 16 cor.-unt of the spring wheat acroage in tho Prairie
Provinces had been coe.led, compared with 42 percent compl-ted on the same
date of 1939. Thie Dominion Buronu of Statistics reports that the spring
season ha? been one of the latest on record in ~lbe'rt.a and has beLe later
than usual in Sa.k.1-tchova.-n. In Manitoba weather condition. wecro more favor-
able, and 59 percent of secdil.:g had boen coipl3ted there on April 30, com-
pared with 14 percent in Saskatchewan and only 1 percent in Alberta. Since
April 30, however, conditions have improved materially a.nd S-sk-tchewnn
reported on MqI7 13 that 65 percent of its prospective joeding had been
accomplished.

Reports on the progress and condition of the European crop are still
frc.wnorntary. On the basis of unofficial reports, however, conditions in
western Euw:. are indicated to have improved but are till below those of
a year ago. In northern Eurone the a auon is till reported to be very
backward. MEore favorable -ieather in the Balkars is benefiting thu crop, but
above normal wintor-killis reported. Indications no'-! point to less winter-kill
in Froance than was feared earlier. No official ostirate of the area sown has
been released, but the acreage is generally believed to be below normal. In
the' United Kingdom conditions are improving, and with increased seeding of
spring wheat it in believed that the outturn may be equal to or exceed that
of a year ago.

In Soviet Russia 69 percent of spring seedings of .all grains were re-
ported to have been completed on May 10, compared v-ith only 15 percent
completed 2n days earlier. Seedi-s n are, however, slightly behind those
of lact year o. this date, when they are reported to have been 72 percent
cocpl-ted. Th:-y are no.- progressing more favorably but are still behind
schedule, there is a gJ eorl belief that the '.:inter what suffered consider-
able damage.

The '.atost estic~-to of the acreo-ige. in Idia is placed at 33,666,000
acres, which ic a slight inerJaso, compared with the April estimate. The
production is now estimated at 398,496,000 bushels, compared with the revised
May estimate of 366,6S8,000 bushels in 1939.

In central China the crop is reported as in generally good condition,
and the dry weather in north China has been onmewhat relieved.

WhIc-a seedings are reported to be progressing well in Argentina, and
a lar.er acreage than thrt of last yoar is expected.





- 7-


Seedings are making satisfa-ctory progress in most districtss of
Australia but additional moisture is needed in some parts.

Smaller world carry-over epected at end ofz 191L. n,.-o'n

If yields per acre in 1940 turn out t- be iJ.idficaitly below avorago
and the total acrageo is no larger, production 1.,wuld be loss -than world con-
suuptioon id the cL.rry-over at the t o._d of the 1940-41 se.aso/bbe smaaller than
the prospoctivo July 1940 carry-over..

The estimated world wheat supply a.:d projected distribution for the
your orded Juno 30, 1940, compared with a year earlier, aroe Zc:'rn in table 2.
This scrje table ac public. c d a m-.nth ago and is repeated f6r reference. The
projected figurUs on di- .pocor,.Licc aiid carry-over are only indications, si:ce
sources of ifrs,''ltin are i(:rc.tlJ limited this year by ;var conditions.

Table 2.-Estiu.to.cd world supply I/ and distribution, year beginning
July 1, 938-39

:_ Year binj.n- J'ul-1 : Incrence
Itoe : 193S 9 1939 : or
: estimates : indications : decrease
: M.i. bu. Mil.. bu. Mil. bu.

Carry-over July 1 2/ ..........: 599 l,lg9 590
Production ................. ..: 4,605 4,270 335
Tot5l supply ............. : 2049 + 255
Net exports front Soviet Russia .: 3/ 1 38
Tot:l of a.bo'e ... ........: 5,241 5,4 3 + 217
Disappeara- cc ...................: 4052 4.025- 27
Carr-,oor .TL-o 3_.0 ............: +118__9 j 3 2414
/17 Ecluri.T dtjckJ and production in Soviet Rursi-: aro d Cuh'.
2/ DiffiL s ror figures in table 12 of The .heat Situation for February 26,
11'0, b,- uxcluoiin, s)me newi crop uvheat for the United Statos, figures for
which ':.ero -l:lablc only begi-nningi irn 1937.
,/ Net i, ;r ,.

World tr__ade 1. 197-40 loss than year earlier

The ftr:ca-i-'h .f imports by net impor--i~C countries for the 1939-40
season .r. c :. .p-.l, at 525 million bushels, till sees a reasonable
expcz -;i- ., ..i is 48g million bushels loss than in 1938-39. As has been
prev:..- ;: : to.'. out, forecasts of inporti s are nade with considerable
resc'--.'...I.:, :;-:-..c trade figures for c.rt-i:i. countries are either entirely
un.avalilTble c r vC:.- late in boing received.. Moreover, there is general un-
certaint;- with rega-rd to agreeancnts a'-d shipping.

On the basis :-f exports to date the above estinato of not imports may
be csnevhat high. It mujt be recognized, h.i-.ovcr, that chaingcr in gross ex-
ports from meo year to another are not expected to ou.11i the changes in net
imports. Total world exports for the year e:nding'L Ju- 30, 19h0 ':-a be as much
as 70 million bushels l::ss than those of 1,'~t year. Reductions, which appear
likely for the exporting countries are as follows (in millions of bushels):


~~ __~~ ~


ws-43




ws-43 -8 -

United States 59, Australia 32, Soviet Russia 38, and British India 9.
Increases, in millions of bushels, are as follows: Canada, 40 to 45 and
Argentina 29.

Stocks of wheat in Canada are large but the export situation is
favorable to that country because competition from the other three major ex-
porting countries is greatly limited by conditions noted below. Exports from
the United States have been curtailed by conditions which hnve held domestic
prices above export parity, including poor winter wheat crop prospects.
Argentina, because of a small 1940 crop and the requirements of Brazil and
other South American countries which Argentina usually supplies, is virtually
out of the European markets, except for supplying some filler wheat to the
lUnited Kingdom for blending with the high protein Canadian \'-heat. Australia
has an above-normal surplus but is so far from Europe that high shipping costs
and war-time transportation risks have greatly reduced the prospects for
-exports of this wheat to Europe. The British Government has, however, pur-
chased sizeable quantities of Australian wheat, some of which should move dur-
ing the remainder of the current season.

The Canadian wheat supply for e..port or carry-over in Canada and the
United States, on :Lay 1, 1940, is estimated at 322 million bushels, compared
with 144 million bushels a year earlier. The supply for export or carry-over
in Argentina on May 1 is estimated at only 38 million bushels, compared with
196 million bushels a year earlier following the very large crop of the
previous year. The corresponding figure for Australia on M.ay 1 is placed at
150 million bushel; compared with 68 million bushels on May 1, 1939. The cur-
rent estimate for Australia is based on official export figures through
February, supplemented by unofficial estimates.

Table 3.-Estimated wheat surplus for export or carry-over in three ex-
porting countries, United Kingdom port stocks, and stocks afloat,
May 1, 1937-40 1/

Position 197 93 1939 1940

: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
Canada
In Canada ...............: 6g 46 143 305
In the United States ....: 10 1 1 17

Argentina 4................. 34 49 196 38
Australia ................. 60 75 68 150


Total ................

United Kingdom port stocks


: 172 171 408 510

: 12 10 24 3/


Stocks afloat to:
United Kingdom ..........: 14 15 11 1/
Continent ...............: 24 12 15 1/
Orders ............*... :..: 1 15 7 3/
Total ... ............ : 63 52 57
Grand total .........: 235 223 465
-/ Carry-over at the beginning of the year (Canada, July 31; Argentina,
January 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production minus
domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly exports to date.
2/ Based on official exports through January, supplemented by unofficial
Estimates for February and March. 3/ Not available.







WS-43 9-

Decline in -r-cei in W-'.n'e a-. Bue-os Airee
less than in United St.:te-

Durin7 the -.,.st m:ntlth, -'ric., at n~peg and Buenos Aires declined
but not to t'-.e Crr er::c.-t as in the unitcl States. Thile domestic futures
at Chica.j n..d :"'r-'s Cl 1', for the week E..:'..L3 i.ay 18 were 19 cents lower
than f,r h e r*.1- I-r-d! A--ri1. -'r, a:d :.i:re->olis 17 cents lower for the same
pecrio, Tir.ni, o .~:1. .cli:.ci. only 5 cents and Buenos Aires 13 cents. On Maiy 1
minir.un prices 77re establi .ed at Winnipeg on the lbu.is of the closinr prices
on iHay 17. In Canalian fiund tlhcseo wer: M'y 70-3/S, July 71-3/8, -'d
October 73- /,; cc-Lvertel at the official rate of 90.909 these prices equal
(4.0,, "4.9, arx, c6.9 cent"- in- United States currency. On ga~.: 21, the Argentine
Govcr r.irnt fi::ed mirimrun prices at Buenos Aires.

Table 4.- A--erago c'losi"g rice of July wheat futures, specified markets
and da-tes, 1939 and 19!0

i-;.i-o : -Liv. r-,---ool: J ue-nos Aires: : ..s-?.3 : :Iinne-
: / '/ : / : 2/ : Chicago City : apolis
Period .- .- .
Peri7o: 1940:1939o 1:94
_. 13c3:l.c 139 i.. ;!'.: _939 190 1939: 19401939. 1901939 190
: CtL.c. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.
month h :
FCe-. : ., so., -- --- 6s.4 99.7 64.1 93.9 71.1 95.3
i.2:. : bl.4 % .0 61.? --- --- 6g.2 101.6 63.6 96.7 70.4 99.7
Apr. 6: 1.7 33 .1 1i.1 --- --- 68.5 10o6.9 64.1 102.1 71.4 103.4
Weol:
ended
Apr. 6: Co.g 32.1 6C.2 6S.2 67.5 104.0 63.1 99.2 70.1 100.8
13: 61.3 S2.9 61.0 -- 70.8 68.2 106.1 63.8 101.1 71.3 102.7
20: 61.5 33. 6.6 --- 71.7 68.1 109.3 63.7 104.G 71.2 105.5
27: 63.0 s3.6 61.1 --- 60.0 77.2 70.2 10 5.2 5 103.3 72.8 104.5
May 4: 65.4 8.5 63.0 60.0 79.6 73.2 105.7 6.9 101.0 75.6 103.3
11: 6.3 .G -- 59.8 76.4 73.9 105.g 69.6 101.1 77.2 103.7
1:-: 65.0 69.0 6.o -- 59.7 66.4 74.1 90.1 69.8 85.7 75.5 s5.S

High 3/: 6.3 -3.3 63. 60.0 7 79 74.1 109.3 69.8 lo4.8 75.5 105.5
Low : 6C.g 69.0 6. --- 59.7 66.4 67.5 90.1 63.1 85.7 70.1 88.8

/ Cronv.rszior. at nocn bu -i:-L r-.te of exchange 1939; 1940 figures at offi-
cial r..tL ':-hich is '0O.Cr1 ccr.t. Ar United States buyer of Canadian grain
would be required to me ?lo sott.cme::t in terms of United States dollars
through an a-cnt of the Canr..in_: Fcrcir-n Exchange Control Board at the offi-
cial rate.
2. Juno f'.turos.
A/ April 5 to L!ay 1iE, 19c0, and corresponding dates for 1939.

T:'E DC';:STIC T7-ZAT SITUATICOT

EACIGR CLT7TD Domncstic rhyett prices from the spring of 1933 to
tho s:ri:.F of 137 ,cr un.usully hi.:h in relation to world
prices, as the re'-ult cf small crops in the United States. During
this same period, -rices in other countries also r.ovod up-ward,







- 10 -


rcflectir.- a world-wido rccovr"-y in commodity price levels,
currency d'epreciation, and red-ced production. The average
prices received by United States producers fcr the 1931 and
1932 crops were 39 and 33 cents, respectively, compared rith
average prices for the 4 cror.s, 1933 to 1936, of 74, S5, 83,
and 103 cents per bushel, respectively.

In 1937 United States production was larfe and prices
to growers docliredi to an avc:jrc- of 96.0 cents. In 193g,
with domestic production Pgaj. large, with a record world crop
and with low,'r commodity prices, prices received by producers
declined to an average of 55,4 Z cents ar'd would have averaged
still lower had it not been for the loan aid export-subsidy
progra.is which held domestic prices above export parity.

Prices received by growers for wheat dr'irg ithe year
begiringr July 1939 are e:eCcted to average 70.2 l/ cCets.
This also is relatively high cormparie with the us'mal relation-
ship to prices in other countries, as a result of the operation of
the agricultural programs, poor prospects for tl.e 1940 crop, and
the holding of wheat in expectation of higher prices.

E:-.crts from the United States have declined with those
from other surplus whoat-producing countries frcm about 1926
to 1933. Du-'ing the period 1934-36, small crops in the
United States (the rosilt of abnormally l.ow yields per seeded
acre) were follor:od by not imports. The 1937 wheat crop was
greatly in excess of domestic needs, rnd 1CO million bushels
of wheat and flour in terms of .:he:.t -.:ore exrortc~ under condi-
tions of reduced comsrtition resulting frr.m small crops in
Canlada and Arg:c.tina. In 1935 another large crcp was produced,
but exporting conditions were the mrst difficult since 1931 be-
cause of largo crops in other countries, arnd exports of 107 mil-
lion bushels c-e made. possible onl- by an oex.ort-sub-:idy program.
With a 1939 crop only moderately large and. prospects of a poor
crop in 1940, cx crts in 1939-40 have been greatly rediuccd; it is
expected they will total about 50 million bushels.

Wheat sul.2 in 1 40 ma3 total about
96 millllon bushels

The domestic wheat supply in 1.940--4 is eo:pcctc, to tntal approxi-
mately 963 million bushels accordi-n to prusrent indic-.ticns. This consists of
an estim-.tel 1940 crop of 675 million bushels 1nd a July 1, 9430 carry-over of
288 million buLhcls, which includes crop incurancc reserves estimntcd at 15
million blshcls. On the basis of supplies cf 963 million bushels, nrd pros-
Tocts that d,:iectic disappearance in 19)G-4l1 MyA total abbut 665 million
bushels and shipments to our poszcssi-ons 3 million buschel, the quaantity avail-
able for export and for c-ary-ovor on Julyr 1, 1941 wculd'. be abcut 295 million
bushels.,


I/ Includes lo-r. wheat at veorr.ge loan value.


WS-'13






WS-43 -- 11 -

Under the provisions of 'the ;.'ricualural Adjustment Act of 1938, the
carry-over go l is 30 perc:rt of a' nnri 1 years con.imption and exports.
This normal domestic coansumtion and e -'ort figure is 'mde ur of the aver-
age domestic consim..tion of 692 rili2lon bu::hils / and exports of 66 million

Table 5.- Whcat supply and. distribution,'by classes, in continental
United States, estimrnted for 1939-40 and oroj3cted for 1940-41


I t nm


A. Year beginning


Carry-ov.r July 1, 1939
(old wheat) ............
ProJiction in 1939
Total Fv-ply .........
E:xports nn.I. s'Aipio-nts .....
Domestic di-apr- ;.rrance .


: Hard. : Soft ad : : :
: ied : rod : re : Durum : White : Total
:winter wintere r rr fl : : :_
:MillioIn Million Million Million i'illion MIlillion
:':.'us.ie s bushels bushels bushels tushels bushels




.: 114 30 '73 18 19 1/254
: 307 203 130 35 So _55
: 421 233 203 53 99 1,Cl
24 2 5 20 51
.: 244 203 128 32 63 670


B. Year beginning :
July 1, 1)- _

Carry-over July 1, 1940
(old.rhe. t) .............:
Production in .- .......:
t. : p] ..........
Domestic sioro**e :.v 'nce .....:
Avaoilablt- for shi-ments,
e-ports, ;jnr! c,.-ery-over :
Ju'Y 1, '41
Sh ... .... ....... :
Av.il.abl, '.r -Yunorts and
c cry-ovur July 1, 194l .:

C. Juli stock-s, corT7prisons

Avt..r. 3 .e, l', ? -3 1/ ........ :
Av...r .ge, ,-.b-3, */ .......:
Smallest t-r.l i-. recent
yoers (1!37) ............:
Largest tot.l (1943) 3/ ....:


153
220
373
243


28
184
212
186


130 26
1 --


129


161
69

37
201


70 21 16 2/288
133 3g8 00 675
203 59 116 9b3
130 32 74 665


73 27 42 29g
- -- 2 3

73 27 40 295


317
160

83
378


1/ Ir.clh..a cron insurance reserve of 6 million bushels.
2/ Inclutj:3 cro- insliran:ce reserve of 15 :m.llon bm.hels.
1/ ContcAins Son-.a rcnw wheat prior to 1937, perb-ps 15-20 million bushels on the
average e,

4/ Th-eat shippc:d to nozsessions of the United States is inclv..de with domestic
consimntion for this c.:r.-mutatioh.


- --






- 12 -


bushels during the 10-yearr period ended J.uLe 0T, 19'9. The carry-over goal
of 30 percent of this figure would be 227 million ::.:shls. It appears that
the carry-over on July 1, 1941 will be -i-her th:-n the goal unless exports
are larger thLan .pp.ars likely at this time. A Lon:-.;rv-tive nrogram which
would relieve the situation in the Pacific ITorth-.opt mirhl b.. as low as 14
million bushels, whereas a program which would inr.':.mr i-y ecx-.rorts er.st of
the Rockies miiht move a substantial part of this indic;.trd surplus.

The estimated supply and distribution, by cl-.ss-o, for 1 .O-4h is
shown in table 5, section A, projected figures for lC4L'-4l in section B,
and carry-over stocks for comparison in section C.

Production of winter wheat in 1 L0 was incicat-ed on M'ty 1 at
459,691,000 b'.ish,-ls. This production is 8 percent high. r them the April 1
forecast of 426,215,000 bushels, but it is substantially lovwer than the 1939
crop of 563,431,000 bushels and the 10-year (1929-V3) average of 571,067,000
bushels.

The estimate of winter acreage remaining for harvest was 34,076,000
acres, com lare'd with 37,802,000 acres i...rv,.sted last year and the IC-yoar
(1929-3S) average of 39,453,000 harvested acres. The ay 1 reports from
crop correspondents indicated that 24.3 perce..t of the acreage seeded last
fall will not be harvested. This is an improvement since April 1, W'hen a
29-percent --bandonmer.t was indicated. Reports as to ho'- much of last fall's
seeded acr-..r.ge would come thr.-.tgh to harvest in the souEthern Gr.at Plains
area, where it was extremely dry at needing time, Yv.r, considerably more
optimistic on May 1 than they were a month earlier. 2ut on a large acreage
in this section the winter and spring emeri:gd plants arc in a weakened and
delayed stage of development, and doubt still exists concerning their
capacity to prod.ico grain and to overcome the comr.-tition v.ith weeds' and
other hazards.

The indicated yield per harvested acre was 13.5 bu .hels, conr.arcd
with 14.9 bushels last year and the 10-year (1929-3,) ,average of 14.3
b-c'.i'ls per acre. Improvement in yield prospects during April occurred in
all but a few States. Good rains fell during April ov.:er much of the winter
area east of the Rockies and vero of material benefit; tut even th.uigh a
marked improvement resulted, subsoil moisture shortages still existed in
the Great Plains area. Prospective yields in this arca .'.-re natrially
below average. Considerably above average yields weLre in prospect for Mon-
tana and the West Coast States. In the soft winter wheat States c?.st of the
.i.ssissippi River May 1 indicatcad yields were lowvor than l..at year's actual
yields by .5 to 3.5 bush-els per acre, but were :expected to be nearly equal
to or slightly above a.'-rage.

While generally favorable conditions continue to prevail, rainfall
since '.0ay 1 over most of the winter wheat belt has been below normal. Kansas
is the outstanding contion. Here the crop has innrrvcd, although in the
western portion/are viry weedy. Good rains have frll-n in eastern 1Icv Mex-
ico, northern Tex'.", Oklahoma, and eastern Coloradol, nnd the progress of win-
ter wheat h-s boon mostly fairly good. In Nebraska, w~helre rains are needed,
some deterioration is reported. The cr.-p still averr-!Z. somewhat la~te over
most of the hard winter wheat area. Recent conditions have been rather


ws-43






ws-14


- 13 -


favorable for stem rust, and some infestation has been reported in parts cf
Texas. In Missouri progress has been generally good. In the Ohio Valley
wheat continued to make mostly good advance, although only fair process .
was noted on some drier c.reas in eastern sections. From the Rocky Moun-
tains westwr.rd the previous favorable condition has been maintained.

Production of spring wheat in 1440 on the basis of present indica-
tions is tentatively placed at 215 million bushels, It is asusuied that
farmers have been able to c-.rry out their feeding intentions as expressed
in Marc:, when a seeded .cr e~. of 19,425,000 acres was indicated. Pre-
cipitation for March anA to date is well alove normal in much of the spring
wheat area and surface.moisture conditions have bLcn generally favorable.
In p,.rts of th3 northern Plains area there is still a ldficiency of subsoil
moisture, but it appears thpt the crop is starting under conditions which,
in many aroes, are regarded as the most favorable in any recent year. Accord-
ingly, present conditions indicate a yield per seeded acre slightly higher
then the lorng-time aver--,o. Average 1920-39 yields of 10.3 bushels on the
19.4 million acres indicated in the March prospective plantings report would
produce about 200 million bushels.

National wheat acreage allotment same as last years

A 19hl national wheat acroege allotment of 62 million acres was
announced M-iy 14. This is the same as the 62 million acres allotted to wheat
farmers for the 19J. crop. It was also announced that there will be no mar-
keting quoti proclaimed for wheat this year.

April 1 vh n.t stocks 6 million bushels larger than
a year earlier

Totil wheat stocks on April 1, 1940 were estimated at 438 million
bushels (table 7), about 6 million bushels less than on April 1 a year ago.
Since t3tEl stocks on January 1 were estimated at 615 million bushels, the
April 1 stc.cks indicate a 3-month total disappearance of 177 million bushels.
This ras m3 n-illion bushels less than the 210 million bushel -'isnppcarr-nce
during J.n-ar;y-M.a~; ch last year. Ab'ut 11 million bu'sh-ls of the disappearance
during the- firo't ou-.rter this year was exported, or about 22 million bushels
loss than in' the first quarter of 1939. About 11lmillion bushels less wheat
was u!iPd in the United States during J;a.uary-MTarch than in the same period
of last :'rL.', largely the result of a reduction in the quantity used for
feed, plth'-;:h there was some'reduction in human consumption. The April 1
stoc':- ar :.r- line with expectations, andl the only change in the estimate
of the -: rl.-o-vcr on July 1, 1940 that appears necessary is to reduce it by
1 million ib 'iols to adjust for an iT.crcase of thaUt qunntity in the estimate
of the yea-r's exports.

Domestic "I-hat prices still high relative to
prices ii. -other countries

while e -.hcat pric-.: in the United States recently declined somewhat
nore than in Winnipeg and Bu.-,ns Aires, they continue high in c.)rp prison
with w'heat prices in those other markets. Prices'of hard winter wheat at
Gulf ports are about 2641/2 cents above export parity end those at Pacific
ports ab-ut 22'_ cents above. The avErrnge narrin for the past 12 weeks has





- 14 -


been 25 cents for the Gulf and 27- cents for the P .cific Coast. Prices of
domestic spring wher.t at Buffalo are about 14 cents lower than approximately
the same quality of Cai-adian wheat, c.i.f. duty uaid, at Buffalo. Four
weeks ago this margin v.as about 9 cents.

Domestic what-porices, after declining steadily in 1 .te April and
early Ma.y, dropped precipitously on M1:, 14 and 15. For the wek jeded April 20
the July futures closing prices at Chicago averaged 109 ccnte (table 4),
the highest since the fall of 1937. Then nriccs .eIclin2d to an average of
106 cents for the week ended May 11, influenced l.rgel.y b;/ imorovcd domestic
crop conditiirns and heavy market receipts. On M.ay 14 an-' 15 liquidation be-
'came heavy following the turn of events in Europe ;.nd rric.s declined the
10-cent limit on both days. By May' 1g there w".s a further net decline of 10
cents and the Secret.r:,- of Agriculture rcou-:st.- that minimum nriccs be es-
tablished in futures markets. On May 20, at tlhe opening of trading, minimum
future prices were established in the various grain. c~cn-.ngrs in the United
States. Prices at Chicago were set as follows: 'W-eat July 78-1/2, Septem-
ber 78-1/4, and December 79-1/4 cents; rye July 44-1/2, and September
46-1/2 cents. The wheat loan-program for the 1940 crop with loan values to
producers at slightly higher levels than the fixed futures ninimun prices
was also announced on May 20. Strength in prices at ]Punos Aires together
with the establishment of minimum prices in Can-da and l?.re flour purchasoc
in the United Statoo h-.3 .oabsequqatly iCel prices ancve the nini;n.u.. On May
23 July futures at Claica;o clocol Crt <2-.3/ conts, or 3-,7/ cents rbove the
DE 7lLU'.
Average futures closing T.rices in Chicago, Kansas Cit;:, and Minne-
apolis are s'.o.wn in table 4; weighted verage c-rs'. ricjs in Kansas City,
Minneapolis, St. Louis, and Seattle are shovn in t-.ble 6.

Table 6.- 17eightod avor-age cash price of wheat, specific marrkets and
dates, 1939 and 1940

:All classes : No. 2 : No. 1 : No. 2 Hard. : No. 2 : Western
Month :and gr-ades :Hard Winter :Dk.N.Spring :Ar.:b r Dur.un : Red Winter : White
or date :six markets :Kansas City :Minneapolis :Minneanolis : St. Loiris :Seattle 1/
: 139 : c.40 :l939 : 1940 :1939 : 1940 :1939 : 1940 :193i : 1__ :139 :19 0
:Cents Corts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cc.its Cents Cents Centg
Month- :
Jan. : 72.6 101.8 70.9 101.2 79-7 104.8 72.7 100.2 73.4 105.3 67.6 85.3
Feb. : 70.6 101.O 69.2 99.4 78.0 104.3 72.3 9c.7 73.1 105.6 67.5 84.9
Mar. : 71.0 101.3 6g.7 102.1 77.0 104.0 73.7 96.7 73.2 106.3 67.5 83.0
Apr. : 72.4 105.6 69.6 105.7 77.8 108.2 74. 99.1 76.4 111.2 69.7 84.2
Woek
ended -:
Apr. 6 : 71.3 102.6 68.7 103.2 76.6 105.2 73.6 97.1 74.9 107.6 67.9 -83-3
13 : 72.4 104.1 69.4 104.3 78.9 106.9 73 6.q 75.6 109.6 69.2 83-0
20 : 72.8 107.2 69.4 10.3 77.3 109.7 74.4 9".9 76.0 111.9 70.1 85.1
27 : 73.2 107.5 70.8 108.2 78.8 110.3 74.8 100.9 7s.4 112.7 71.4 84.8
May 4 :77.5 105.4 74.5 105.3 82.4 109.3 77.6 96.8 S2.7 110.0 72.7 85.1
11 : 78.7 104.5 74.7 104.6 g3.4 108.5 77.5 97.1 83.1 111.2 70.9 85.9
18 : 80.1 94.4 76.0 88.6 86.3 99.3 78.3 85.7 80.9 102.4 70.8 77.2

High 2/ : 80.1 107.5 76.0 108.3 86.3 110.3 78.3 100.9 83.1 112.7 72.7 85.9
Low 27 : 71.3 94.4 68.7 88.6 76.6 99.3 73., 85.7 74.9 102.4 67.9 77.2
1/ Weekly average of dailyy c.sh quotations, basis Ho. 1 .,ckod.
2 April 6 May 18, 1940.


m


ws-43





- 15 -


Average wheat loans of 64 cents announced
compared with 63 cents last year

A wheat loan proprat, for the 1940 crop with average loan values to
producers of about 64 cents a bushel was announced May 20. The loan, which
was recommended by the Secretary of Agriculture and approved by the Presi-
dent, is al-:.ost identical with that of the 1939 program. The average loan
value of 64 cents is about 57 percent of the parity price, which on April 15
was 1i.13. The 1939 loan values averaged 63.cents.

Loan values announced were as follows for these terminal markets:
No. 2 Hard Wintcr at Kansas City 77 cents, at Or.aha 76-1/4 cents, at Chicago
81 cents, anl. at Gulf ports 83 cents.; No. 1 Dark Northern Spring at Minne-
apolis S7 cents; N,,. 2 Red ..Jj.nter at Chicago and at St. Louis 81 cents; No.
1 Soft White at Portland 73 ccnt.s. T:'ese rates are the same as those of
last ea"r v:itl. the exception: of Plo. 2 Fard '"inter at Chicago, up 1 cent; No.
2 Hard W'inter at Julf ports, d.-.-n 2 cents; and Io. 2 Red W'inter at Chicago
and St. Lcuis, up 1 cant. The .s adjustments are based upon experience last
year and further studies of mar!'et relationships.

Although the loan viu on No. 2 Hard Winter at Gulf ports is lower
than that of last year, vallc s at country points in Texas, Oklahoma, and
northeast New :..exiro v!ill be The saiie as those of last year. Last year's
rate at Gulf ports prove-. too hir-h in relation to the market price and re-
sultea in loan wheat r,,ovin7 out o.Z position.

A" in previous years the "loans will be made by the Commodity Credit
Corporation anid v.'ill be available to wheat producers who are in compliance
with the-r w.'heat acria-c all.ot;.c..ts under the 1940 Agricultural Adjustment
Administration far, pro'.::- :. 1:'-.s on wheat stored on the farm will mature
10 months from their r; ct..vc :.tes. LoPns on ;.ih.at stored in approved
warehouses will run for 10 ::.ornhs but not later than April 30, 1941. No
plans for Ic.ai extenzionrc, -rn- c:co'r,,eiplated.

Under thle 193', program, t:e Co.jnodity Cre fit Cororation and other
lending agencies male 237,000 l1:u-.s on about 168 million bushels of ,:hcat.
Of this acout 33 million bushels .-ere sto -cd on farms. The expiration date
of the 1939 loan was April 30, ain. on that date practically all these loans
had boon liqcui.datcd ,:ith the cxccption of some farm-stored. wheat -which is
being res'al.: In the past 2 years, -.lhcn loan programs ::ere in effect,
fan- crs have been enabled to stere wheat at harvest tiJ.;e and thereby have had
greater freedo-: in r.ar'eti"-g.

Table 7.- V1heat stoc':s in the United States, April 1, 1935-40 1/

Pc.stic.n 1 35. 1936 1937 : 13 1939 1940
1: I,'.1 1,000 1,000 1, (0C 1,000 1,000
*:"'ii.].s bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels
Cn far .................... 9., 726 98,97" 71,463 124,652 18i8,408 157,484
Interior millc i-. .lev.:cr.s: '1,4.26 49,344 38,191 71,804 90,046 80,817
Coerial .................: 2 49,919 34,741 54,426 82,687 105,401
Mcrch-.nt mill and stored
for others 2/ ............. ,852 72,046 65,983 79,851 82,481 94,266
Total ............... 291,286 270,287 210,378 330,733 443,622 437,968
1/ Series starts April 1, 1952; fisur.--s for 1932-34 in The 17heat Situation,
May 25, 1939, page 10. 2/ Buruau of Census figures raised to represent all
merchant mill and c.lv:.tor stocks.


~_






- 16 -


Table 8.-Wheat production and farm disposition, United States,
1909-39


Used. for seed @ronnd at :
Year :_ __ : Fed to : mills for : Sold or
hpi n nn:Produztin n: _- :livestock :home use or: for sale


July : :


: 1,000
: bushels


683,927
b25,y46
t1's,-66
730, 011
751,101
897, 117
1,008, 637
6'34,572
619,790
90S,130o
952,097
843,277
81i,9614
s 46, 64a
759, *82
-41,6 17
b66r ,7o
532,213
875,0'
914,373
23,217
S.36, o70
941. 67
7 5C, 927

C75, N

931,702
75, 971


l g grown 1/: 1 : exchanged :
: : for flour :
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bu'.shels bushels bushels


6o, 69
73,129
75,170
72- 6b6
75,796
50, 972
79,559
79o,0,2
86,719
97,372
59,5911
38 500
38,215

74,111
77195
78, S2:
;3, 2b4

3. 353
"0,0'-


77,C72


7I ',51
.M 2



75,513
i7L1,;^1


65 h5 5
7093 7

72 .C01
77, *g3
77, 67
74,902
72, 749
69,cs 4
85,6a.5
85,015
F4,0l5
F2,1.3
72,2514
7 312
7 513


70,675
co,737
T7, T -
73,411
795,65
7?, ? 53
6F,132

75.320
71,..70

.7,110
-1, 3


21,037
22,77T
35,267
23,6s7
36,2144
27,633
23,755
38,220
31,152
36,869
36,863
20,649
32, 334
s, 9569
69,670
55,727
2S,214
34,261.
44, 507
56,556
58.769
17,193
173,991
124,912
72,261
83,700
S3,163
,", 272
112, '0
125,5 1
51.554


10,074
10,457
12,103
10,221
11,935
10,757
11,318
12,182
11,918
13,022
11,614
11,325
10,996
11,116
10,906
10,262
10.691
10 ,791
9, 20
7,6:2
7, 662
6,606
10,131
15,09 0
16,073
16,2c4
15, 57
15,370
13, 41*1
15,183
15,717
12, 52


587,360
523,905
500,403
627,444
630,921
781, 614
891,297
509,268
503,971
765,155
817,975
726,288
690,125
704,426
606,652
700,310
556,282
708,303
?36,935
770,450
677,025
641,273
679,182
536,377
395,006
360, 82
451,986
453,110
667,651
723,20-4
589,162


I/ Relates


to quantities used by producers on their own farms.


quantities of purchased wheat are
2/ Preliminary.


Additional


so utilized.


1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
191Ii
1915
1916
1917
1913
lq3:)
1920
1921
19202
1923
1924


1527
1923
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1933



1939


:
















2:
:S


WS-43


nrrll n [


m




WS-43


17 -


Table 9.-Wheat supply and distribution in continental United States,
calendar years, 1910-39

Stocks :Imports of:. .: :Apparent
Year : dutiable : Total : Exports : Stocks :domestic
Jan. 1 Production*
Ye : :n:wheat and: supply : 3/ : Dec. 31 :d.isppear-
S: flour / : : : dance
Million illon illin Mllin Mllio Milio Milio


1910

1911
1912
1913
1914 :
1915
1916
1917
191 :
1919
1920

1921
1922 :
1923
1924 :
1925
1926 :
1927
192 :
1929
1930

1931 :
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939


Million
bushel s

407

425
409
478
490
532
656
464
335
1483
599

520
423
472
451
442
3 SO
436
473
566
586


729
717
587
17/ 434
428
370
532
654


Million
bushels

625

618
730
751
897
1,009
635
620
904
952
843

819
847
760
842
669
832
875
914.
823
s886

942
757
552
526
626
627
876
932
755


Million
bushels

5/
2
3
1
1
4
7
8



5
14
10
7
1

5-1



527



40
9

5/
51
5/
8
27
40
9

5/


Million
bushel s

1,032

1,o45
1,142
1,230
1,388
1,545
1,298
1,092
1,239
1,435
1, 442

1,344
1,284
1,242
1,300
1,112
1,212
1,311
1,387
1,389
1,472

1,605
1, 486
1,269
1,121
1,087
1,095
1,255
1,464
1,409


Million.
bushel s

66

88
114
160
236
282
224
146
194
263
277

341
228
168
235
131
182
220
135
144
132

113
75
19
28
8
10
50
ill
111
93


Million
bush el s

425

409
478
490
532
656
464
335
483
599
520
423
472
451
442
380
436
473
566
586
663

729
717
587
434
423
370
532
654
615


Million
bushels

541

548
550
580
620
607
610
611
562
573
645

580
584
623
623
601
594
618
686
659
677

763
694
663
659
651
715
673
699
701


I/ Stocks January 1, 1909-34 estimated by Bureau of Agricultural Economics;
1935-39, total of stocks on farms, in interior mills and elevators, in commercial
centers, and in merchant mills and elevators. 2/ Imports of full duty paid wheat
and "wheat unfit for human consumption" and dutiable flour. Compiled from report,
of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. 3/ Exports, 1910-34, all wheat
and flour and shipments to noncontiguous territory, minus imports for milling
in bond; 1935-39, exports of wheat, and flour made wholly of U. S. wheat, and
shipments, plus domestic wheat and flour used with foreign wheat in milling in
bond. Compiled from reports of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.
/j Balancing item. 5/ Less than 500,000 bushels.





- 18 a


Table 10.- Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
countries, 1036-37 to 1939-40


: Exports Ps iveon by officii sources
: Total : July 1 to Iate shcwn : Date
:1.936-37 :1937-38 : l:TF-9:;19o7-.P:1938-39 :1939-40
: 1,000 1,000 1,0o0 1,000 1,'00 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushiils bushels


United States 1/ ..
Canada ............
Argentina .........
Australia .........
Soviet Union ......
Hungary ..........
Yugoslavia ........
Rumania ...........
Bulgaria ..........
British Trdia .....
Total ........


.:
.
*:
.
: *


21,584
213,028
16 ,977
97,712;
4,47.?


107,194
94,546
69,670
123,453
43,334


115,764
159,885
116,116
9C,685
2/33, 000


76,420
51,215
56,E78
60,875


81,980
127,407
74,426
58,942


46,362
167,332
142,411
42,084


S.'arch 31
April 30
April 30
Feb. 29


S27,428 9,368 27,650 6,994 18,442 30,219 Feb. 29
17,954 5,012 5,346 4,536 4,079 6,660 Dec. 31
.: 36,28 32,210 43,940 26,056 28,805 24,672 Feb. 29
.: 7,275 8,4P9 2,633 5,632 179 4,749 Jan. 31
.: 1, 5-1 19,677 10,097 10,506 8,207 31,37 Nov. 30
.: 603,2C6 512,973 61C,136
: Shiopmens as given by trade sources
: Total : VWeek ended 1940 : July 1 :May 18


:1937-38
: 1,000
:bushels


North America 4/ ...: 184,720
Canada 5/.........: 94,546
United States 6/ ...: 83, 19
Argentina .........: '"
Australia ..........: 127,5"0
Soviet Union .......: *2,248
Danube and BulgariaV/ 37,2,2
British India ......:9/19,n77
Total, above 1Ql 478,32T
Total European :
shipments 4/ : 397,5'92
Total cx-E.uro- :
pean shiprm.+nts:
4/ ............ : 99,4 00


1,000
buchels

245,296
1b9,8b5
QG 157
114,"72
102,116

b2,8168
9/ 10,097
564,453


: 1;y 4 :May 11 :
1,000 1, 000
bushels bushels


4,92;'
4,100
837
i,310

0
860
0


3,200
31 '
2,714

0
992
0


:1938-39


1,00 O
bushels


4,600
108
C,.300

C
976
0


450,764 8,8Pe


1-16,760 1,552


:1939-40


1,000 C 1,000


bus.:els bushels


213,080 185,078
136,700 186,800
q2,605 39,650
81 ,20 15],569
7/ 59,9,;9 7/41,684
S39,824 2,342
44,432 36,128
6 208 0
4-16,713 416,801

11/3612 ,4leiM5,572


l/ 11/8,94 -V71,960


j Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
From official sources, through Depember, supple:'.erted by unofficial estimates
for the following six months.
/ Excludes land trade for 'ovembcr 1930.
4/ From Broomhall's Corn Tr,'de .:-vcws.
5Official customs exports as r:rorted to date, supplemented in the current year
estimates derived by subtracting the weekly United States exports from Broomhall's
estimate for North Arerica.
6/ Official reports received from 16 principal ports only.
/Official exports through February 29 only. Not available subsequently.
/ Black Sca shipments only.
9/ Official.
TO/ Totcl of trade figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's but
do~s not include items 2 and 3.
11/ Through May 4, only.


WS-43


Country


--


T


- ---~----~-


---~


';ay


I





- 19 -


Table 11.- Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,
1938-39 and 1939-40

(Includes flour milled in bon', from foreign.!I ,t:t)L
: : : V eat
Period : '.__ at :V aat lour : including flour
: 1938-39 : 1939-40 :1938-39 :1939-40 : 193S-39 : 1939-40


July-arch: .
Week ended I/
April 6i
13
20?
27
May 4
11i
18


: 1,000
:bushels

: 64,063


1,142
1,457
918


1,910
1,414


1, C 30
bushels

20,944

258
717
83.
948
508
121
2/ o


1,000 1,000
barrels barrels


4,450

88
40
250
144
169
152
41


1,000
b :h el s


1,000
bushels


5,408 84, 70 46,363


41
90
93.
62
70.
,41
2/ 23


1,556
1,645
2,093
"2,033
- 3,101
.2,624
1,607


451
1,140
518
1,239
837
'314
2/ 108


Compiled from reports of the Department of Commerce......
1/ Dat a for total exl.orts from the United States by weeks are not avail-
able. These data represent _x! iorts through 16 of the princi -al ports.
2/ Prelii-L-inary.


Table 12.- Shipments of -.at, including flour, from principal
exporting co'u-itries, specified detes, 193'-39 and 1939-40


A."- ntina
Period : Ar 'ntina
_____ -3 9:1939- 0:
: 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels


Australia


1/938-39:
1,000
bushels


Danube iJorth A2erica


1939-40 :.193-39 0 _,9-2 0:1938-3 9:939-40
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
b'.1j 'ils bushel.s Ibshels bushels bushels


July-iLarch:58,088 124,205 1/58,949 1/41,684 36,952 30,030 182,248 153,846
Week ended:
April 6 3,2C. 4/,070 2,840 2/ 272 352 3,752 5,034
13 : 3,556 4,2L' 2,240 2 1,576 616 3,072 3,811
20 : 4,108 2,651 1,904 2/ 1,2-4 704 3,'-0 4,696
27 : 4,2-. 2,997 2,076 2/ 872 08 3,744 4,543
May 4 : 3,800 4,310 1,828 2/ 680 080 4,240 4,923
11 : 3,3C'0 2,71,4 1,656 2/ 48 992 5,944 3,548
18 : 3,872 6,300 2,228 2 1,808 976 6,500 4,676

Compiled from Brocihall' s Corn .'r- .r 1:,s.
j Official exports, July-February.
2/ Jot available.


WS-43





'S-43 20 -

T3i.l 13.- Net imncrt.:- of :h*.,eat includti.c- flour, into European
olnrtr:es, years be:.,ini:j. July 1, 1937 to 1 W3


Reported nr:t imports


1 ?7-3E


: Million
:; bushel s


July 1.
to


Million:
bushe 1.:


Bel -;ii. .. ..................
Cze-choslov'a::ia. ........... .
Denmark .................
Finland ......... ...........:
France ....................

Austria ...................:
Greece e............, .. .:
Ireland ...................:
Italy ....................:
Latvia ....................:
Netherldands ..*...........
INorr. *y ....,..,............:
Poland ....................:
Portugal ..,,..............:
Sweden ...................:
Swvitz erland ............. ..
United Xincilo. ............:

Totl imports of above-. ..:


Spain ..................... :
Total imports ...........:
Total exports ...........:
Total ;.r.op-ean net
imports 0.........
Shipments to non-Europe .:
Tot il European net im- :
ports and shipments to :
non-Europe ,..........:


36 39
2 i 2/- 1
^6 5
3 2
15 2/ 2
S 54 45
)
1i 14
14 17
5 14
^2/
2?4 29
7 S
3~/ 2/ 3
1 4
2
2/ 1 2
1i. 17
193 220


: Nov. 30 19 18
: Au,. 31 1 3
: Feb. 29 4 3
: Au. 31 1 /
:July 31 1 2/ 2
: July 31) 2 1
: )
:Fob. 29 8 8
: Au. 31 2 3
: July 31 3 2
: Auc. 31 3/ 0
: Feb. 29 19 19
: Feb. 29 5 10
: July 31 l/ 4/
: Feb. 29 T/
: SoTt.30 1
: Dec. 31 10 11
: Au1. 31 38 48


391 416


3 16
394 432 118 126
2 6 0 -2


392
q0o


491


425
147


118


124


573


Compiled from official sources c.:xc..t .0 cth..:rvisc stated.

I/ Forecast of net imports for the entire year found in 7S-37, TNo'vembor
1939, p. 8.
-2/ Hot exports.
SLess then 500,000 bushels.
/ Net exports of less than 500,000 burhcls.


Country


:19'
:39
Mill
hu s


~___


8-: 1939-40

lion i.Illion
-els !',' ,shel ss


--







- 21 -


THE RYE SITUATION

Acreage of fall-sown rye in six countries

Rye acreage for harvest in 1940, in the six countries reporting, is
abcut 27 percent less than that of 1939. The total in these countries is,
however, of no value as an indication of the trend in world acreage, since
the six countries accounted for only about 15 percent of the estimated world
acreage, excluding Soviet Russia and China during the past three years.

Table 14.- VWinter rye: Acreage in specified countries for harvest, 1937-40


Country 1937 1938 1939 1940
: 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres

United States 1/: 3,846 4,021 3,811 3,214
Canada 1/ ......: 894 741 1,102 947
Greece .........: 169 178 156 151
Lithuania ......: 1,250 1,296 1,221 1,248
Luxemburg ......: 15 18 18 16
Rumania ........: 1,052 1,177 1,087 853
Total, above: 7,226 7,431 7,395 6,429
SAcreage, all rye harvested ortfor harvest.
Rye acreage, yield and production in
the United States

The acreage of rye remaining for harvest as grain in the United States
is estimated at 3,214,000 acres, or about 1 percent less than the 10-year
average of 3,250,000 acres. In 1939 the harvested acregse was 3,811,000. The
16 percent decrease in the acreage for harvest in 1940 compared with 1939 re-
sulted from a 21.5 percent reduction in rye seedings. The acreage seeded for
all purposes this season is estimated to hove been 5,640,000 acres. About 57
percent of the sown acreage will be harvested for grain, the remainder being
pastured, turned under, used for other purposes, or abandoned.

The 11.5 bushel yield per acre indicated on May 1, is 1.0 bushel above
the yield obtained in 1939 but slightly blow the 10-year average of 11.4
bushels. States in which prospective yields are above both those obtained in
1939 and average are North DL'aota, South Dakota, Wiisconsin, Michigan, MPontana,
Idaho, Washington, Oregon, California, Utah, and Kentucky.

The 1940 production of rye is indicated as of May 1 at 36,476,000 bu-
shels, compared with 39,249,000 bushels produced in 1939, and the 10-year
(1929-38) average of 38,095,000 bushels.


WS-43







WS-43 22-

Table 15.- Acreage, yield, and production in the United States

:Acres:e : 'ield per acre
: left for : : : Prouction
State : 'arr st : A-/,r : 1'l : Irdi- .
:for r-ain : coted Average : 1939 Indicated
: 9-0 : : 1i40 : 192-3 1940
:1,00'' ecrs 3us'.els ushels Bushels 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.

Wis, ....: 2L. 11.1 10.0 11.5 2,768 2,380 3,082
inrn. ...: 39 15.2 1414.1.0 6,33 7,350 5,446
N. Dak. .: 60 9.3 8.5 10.5 7,865 7,106 0,825
S. Dak. .: 47. 10.8 c. 13.0 4,555 4,752 6,214
lebr. ...: 320 '.3 8.0 7.5 3,00 3,568 2,445

Other
States ..: ,10- --- --- 13,366 14,09. 12,464
U. S. ...,: 11.1 10.3 11.3 33,C95 39,249 36,76

Loan on 1940 rye

A loan on the 1940 rye crop will be available to producers cooperating
in the AAA Farm Prograr in the major rye-producing States of Michigan, Min-
nesota, Montana, Nebraska., North Dakota, South Dakota, isconsin, and W"yoming.
This was announced by the Derartment on Tay 2.22.

The loan will be available on farm-stored rye gradlingC Io. 2 or better
or grading No. 3 solely on the basis of test weight. The loan rate, as was
the case last year, will vary with the 1940 loan rate for No. 2 Hard winter
wheat. Also as under the 1939 loan program, the rye loan rate for -ny area
will be 22 cents less than the Epplicable 1940 wheat loan rate, but not more
than 38 cents per bushel.

This will be the second successive year that a loan on rye has been made
in connection with the AAA Program. Loans will be made 'iy the 9orurodity Credit
Corporation and local administration will be handled by State and county A_.A
committees.

In order to b, eligible for a loan, a farmer must have planted within
his 1940 total soil-depleting allotment. Interest on the loans will be 3 per-
cent, compared with 4 percent in 1933. Th.se will be demand loans, callable
at any time the r:ru is needed to supply seed for other sections of the country;
otherwise the loans will mature ten months from their respective dates. A
storage allowance of 7 cents per bushel will be paid if the rye id delivered
to the Corporation in settlement of the lorn. Th-: full storage allov'Pnce will
also be paid if loans arc called prior to maturity by Commodity Credit Cor-
poration for the purpose of rurplying seed for other sections.

In 1939, loans were made to 2,700 farmers on 1,500,000 bushels of rye.
Commodity Credit Corporation reports that as of ;..y 10, 987,000 bushels had
been redeemed by f'-rmers throu-.h r-p-.ymn.-it of loans, and about 513,000 bushels
remained under loan.




- 23 -


IFEIRE TO FIND STATISTICS ONi TiHE vWEAT SJ:TUATIIO NOT INrLUPED IN THIS ISSUE: I


THE WORLDJp W~EAT SITU.TTION
Suoply anc distribution
1922-3 .. a .
Averages 124--2g, 192S-37, annual 1914, 1937.

Pro'.uction
Specified countries, 1936-38 .. .
1939 (teyt) ...

Stocks, J~ly 1
193,-39 1
1922-39 . . .
Major exporting countries and afloat, 1922-39


Issue


18 Feb.
6 Sept.


5 Jan.
13 Mar.


* 4
* i
*


Oct.
Feb.
Aug.


1940 WS-40
1939 WS-35


1940 WS-39
1940 WS-41


1939
1940
1939


ws-36
ws-40
WS-34


International trrde
International trade in wheat including flour,
1909-38 .. . .
International trade in wheat flour, 1909-38 .
World shipments and to Furope and non-rurope,
averages 1910-14, 1930-34, and animal .. .

THE DOMESTIC THEAT SITUATION
Suoply andi distribution
All 'wheat, 1923-38 .. . .
All wheat, 3vercges 1910-14, 1924-28, 1928-37,
annual, 1913-16, 1937 . .
Classes, average 1929-33, annual 1937-38 .

Production
Classes, 1919-39 .

Stocks
July 1, 1923-39 . .
Jamuary 1, 1935-4O . .

Exoorts and. imports
Exports of wheat including flour to specified
countries, 1909-38 ...... ..

Exports of wheat to specified countries, semi-
-mnually beginning July 1936 .
Exports of whe-t flour to specified. countries,
semi-annually, 'obgining July 1936 .
Imports into the United States, 1923-38 .

Price and income
Sales, price per bushel, and cash income, 1910-39
Average price recbiv-d by farmers in the United
States, 90g-39 . .
I/ Selected tables used most frcnuortly.


21 Feb.
25 Jan.


1940
6L?^o


WS-40
WS-39


7 Sept. 1939 WS-35



14 Feb. 1940 WS-40


11 Sept.
15 Feb.


1939
1940


WS-35
WS-40


17 Jan. 1940 WS-39


14 Feb.
8 Feb.


1940
1940


WS-40
WS-40


21 Feb. 1940 WS-40


19 Feb. 1940 WS-40


Feb.
Aug.


1940
1939


ws-4o
WS-34


Feb. 1940 WS-40


17 Mar. 1940 WS-41


STATISTICS ON THE RYE SITUATION IN "ITHE WEAT SITUATION"


WS-L:3


r --


------ --


FEBRUARY 26, 1940




tiIIIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
111 IIT I 111111111111111111 111111111 1III 11
3 1262 08861 8441






\C




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