Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00051

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A 30 ". : 40


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3 1262i l 08861111 2 08ill UIJIIII 85811111II
3 1262 08861 8581


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


THE WHEA-----T S I TUA T ---------------I ON
T H E W H E A T S I T U A T 1 ON


FEBRUARY 26,


WHEAT: CASH FARM INCOME, UNITED STATES, 1910-39











---- -- ----


-I I-I]j i I


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


1910


1915


CALENDAR YEAR BASIS


1920


1925


* PRELIMINARY


1930


1935


NEG. 38046 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


CASH INCOME RECEIVED BY FARMERS FROM THE SALE
OF WHEAT VARIES GREATLY FROM YEAR TO YEAR. BY THE
END OF THE WORLD WAR IT WAS THREE TIMES THE PRE-WAR
AVERAGE; AT THE BOTTOM OF THE DEPRESSION IN 1932
IT WAS LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF THAT AVERAGE. INCOME
IN 1938 AND 1939 WAS BELOW THE 1910-14 AVERAGE.


1940


WS-40,


DOLLARS
(MILLIONS )
1.500

1.250

1,000

750

500

250

0


_____





WS-_4 2 -


THE WHEAT SITUATI ON
Including Ryp




The United States wheat carry-over on July 1, 1940 is likely to total

about 300 million bushels. This forecast is based on probable exports and

shipments of between 40 and 45 million bushels and probable domestic disap-

pearance of about 670 million bushels for the 12-month period. Total supplies

for the year were 1,009 million bushels, consisting of a carry-over July 1,

1939 of 254 million bushels and production of 755 million bushels.

Domestic wheat prices during February recovered almost to the peak

levels reached in December. The advo.nco was due to a change in speculative

sentiment with tr-d.:r-s generally watching war developments and unsatisfactory

crop conditions in 3trope. Increased foreign demand for United States wheat

and a fairly orderly liquidation of whout loans also have contributed to the

rise.

That prices of Gulf and Pacific Coast ports are about 25 courts per

bushel abovo export parity, a'-d prices of domestic spring wheat nt Buffalo

are about 11 cents lover than approximately the rame quality of Canadian

wheat, c.i.f., duty paid, at Buffalo.

Theat stocks in the United States on January 1, 1940 are estimated at

615 million bushels, or 39 million bushels less than a yer.r earlier but

83 million bu:heln more than stocks on Jnnurry 1, 1933. Stocks of hard red

winter, hard rod spring, and durum wheat together are about 3 million bushels

larger than a year ago, but stocks of soft red winter decreased 23 million

bushels and white 19 million bushels. On the basis of the Jinuary 1 stocks

figures and exports through December, domestic wheat disappearance for the

July-December 1939 period is indicated to be 364 million bushels, compared

with 395 million bushels in the same period a year earlier.








-3-


Present indications point to a Europeain winter wheat area about as

large as last year's. E::rly intentions were to increase the acreage, but this

has been prevented by excessive :oisture and in some countries by war con-

ditions which hindered sowings. If the weather is favorable at spring seeding

time the acreage of spring wheat will probably be increased. Cold weather

with little snow' cover in some sections, especially in the Drarubir.- countries,

and sharply fluctuating temperatures duri-ng the winter have caused consider-

able apprehension as to the condition of the crop.

World wheat supplies 1/ for the year beginning July 1, 1939 are now

estimated to be about 250 million bushels more than for the preceding year.

World stocks of old c heat on July 1, estimated at 1,189 million bushels, were

about 590 million bushels more than a year earlier. On the other hand, world

wheat production is now estimated at 4,267 million bushels, or about 338

million bushels less than the record production in 193'. As the result of

net reductions in Southern He':isphere countries, the present world production

estimate is 12 million bushels smaller than the estimate of a month ago.

Rye prices since July have been considerably higher this year than a

year earlier, nlth: g.ih rye supplies have been almost as large as last year.

This has been largely the result of the strength in wheat prices, but the

fact that Germany took over Polish supplies and the likelihood that there would

be no rye exports from the Soviet Union were also important price factors.

Rye exports from the United States during the current year are expected to

be less than 1 million bushels, domestic disappearance slightly smaller than

a year ago, and the carry-over next July about the snne as last July.


1/ All references to world acreage, supplies, production, and stocks in this
report exclude the U. S. S. R. and China, except where noted.


WS-4o






WS-O4


THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION 2/

BACKGF.JOUD.- Total world supplies of wheat increased sharply
from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of increaPsd acreage.
From 1934 to 1936 world supplies declined, following successive
years of small yields and increased world demand. Supplies
increased slightly in 1937. With the return of more normal
yields on the large acreage, supplies in 193 anid 1939 were
again largo -- the largest on record (table 12).

Total .vorld shipme.its of wheat averaged 751 million
bushels for the period 1923-37, reached a peak of 913 million
bushels in the y'_.r beginning July 192S, and then declined sharply,
largely as a result of the measures taken by importing countries
to reduce the use of foreign wheat. World shipments were 599
million bushels for the year beginning July 1, 1933, oad they are
expected to be somewhat less during the current season.

World wheat pricos declined in the period 1924-33 with the
increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in prices after
1929 .riJ! caused largely by thG general decline in industrial
activity and commodity prices. From the spring of 1933 to the
summer of 1937, world ,wheat prices noved upward, reflecting
world-wide recovery in commodity price levels, currency deprecia-
tion, a-i:d reduced production. The world price for the 1937 crop
reme''_ed practically unchanged from that of a year earlier. In
1938 world prices -ra~in declined sharply as a result of the record
world production .nd the weakness of demand (table 12). In November
and December 1939 prices adva-ced, influenced by the Eur-opean war
and by poor crop prospects in Argentina o.d the United Sta.tes.

Net total Southern Hemisphere estimates lower

During the past month the estimated production for Argentina has
been revised dow,,. ;:.rd 29 million bushels, but this was largely offset by
an upward revision of 24 million bushels in the estimate for Australia.
Reductions totaling about 7 million bushels were also made in the estimates
for Uruguay and Chile. Production in ArgEo:tina is now estimated at 11
million bushels, conparod :with 336 million bushels in 193g; a.d that of
Australia, at 210 million bushels, compn-ard with 154 million bushels last year.
Theso changes of 12 million bushels reduce the estimated world pro auctionn
to 4,267 million bushels, compared with the 1938 estimate of 4,605 million
bushels. Slight changes in estimates for European countries are corper.sa-
ting, and these cou.ntrios now total 1,717 million bushels.


27All references to world acrna., supplies, production, rnr stocks in this
report eclud1e the U. S. S. R. ead China, except heree noted.








ws-4o


-5-


Estimated world wheat supply and disappearance for the year beginning
July 1, 1939 compared with supply and disappearance in 1938 are shown in
table 1. This table includes revisions in the production estimates for-both
last year and this year. Rec.e:t purchases of United States wheat by the
Soviet Union are likely to more than offset Soviet exports and so result in
net imports into the Union. TLa forec-st for 1939-40 disappearance is ten-
tative, and ibcz been in.- lued pri r~':rily in order to approximate the size of
the carry-over n .t July. Estimated world supply and disappearance since
1922 are shown in table 12.

Table 1.- Zetimated world sup-oly and distribution, year
beginning July 1, 1938-39

: Year beginning July 1 Increase
Item : 1938 1939 : or
: estimates : indications : decrease
: .llion Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels

Carry-over July 1 1/ 2/ ........ 599 1,189 590
Production 1/ ..................: 4,605 4,267 -338
Total supply .............: 5,204 5,456 252
Net exports from Soviet Russia .: 37 / -1 38
Total of above ......... .: 5,241 5,455 214
Disappearance ...................: 4,052 4,000 52
Carry-over Juno 30 .............: 1,19 1,455 266
I Excluding stocks and production in Soviet Russia and China.
2Differs from figures in table 12 by excluding some new crop wheat for the
United Stcats, figures for which were available only beginning in 1937.
N/ Net imports.

The wheat supply for export or carry-over for Canada as of February 1,
1940 is estimated at 367 million bushels compared with 169 million bushels
one year earlier, 58 million bushels February 1, 1938, and 108 million bushels
February 1, 1937. The supply for export or carry-over in Argentina for
February 1 is estimated at 66 million bushels compared with 233 million
bushels on3 year earlier, 74 million bu-h-~es February 1, 1938, and 117 million
bushels February 1, 1937. Figures for Australia, United Kingdom port stocks,
and stocks afloat are not available.

The current international wheat movermnt with comparisons is shown in
tables 16 to 19. Three special tables on world trade in wheat and flour are
included in this issue as tables 13 to 15.

Little chhqv.e in Zvro j:.-n winter wheat
acrea~. compeard wit last ye-r

Estimates of fall sowings in some Zurjpe a countries are usually avail-
able at this time of year. Though incomplete, these estimates give an indi-
cation of the current trend in sown acreage. This year, however, no estimates







- 6 -


have been received for these countries. The International Institute of Agri-
culture at Rome reports that general opinion seemed tn indicate that intentions
were to increase the acr age in the importing countries in order to increase
food supplies, and also to increase acrea-.sg in sore of the exporting countries,
in order to take advantage of the incracadd world price. The season has not,
however, bc-n favorable in all countries. Excessive moisture in some countries
hindered sewing. Var conditions r.lso interfered with st einr s in some sections.
As a result present indications point to a European winter wheat area no larger
than that of last year. If the weather is favorable at spring planting time
the acreage of spring snwn will probably be increased.

Some dnmage has beea reported in the Danubian countries, especially in
Hungary, where severe cold weather c.auht the crops unprotect.d by snow. In
Rumania, also, it is expected that some damage may result from the extreme
cold. In 3ulgnria it is f-.:.red that some damage may occur through the crop
smothering under the ice which now covers it. In other European countries,
sharply fluctuating temperatures are causing considerable apprehension but the
extent of the potential injury cannot be reckoned until later in the season.
In Beigiuz tle outlook is unsatisfactory.

In :7rth Africa the season was generally favorable for sowing, and the
total area is expected to exceed the very large area sown last year.

The acrcege sown in India for harvest in 1940 is reported at 32,381,000
acres, compaFred with 32,255,00)0 acres, the corresponding estimate of a year
ago. The condition of the cro-, is now reported as good.

Crop prospects in North China Pre unfavorable, partly '-ecause of inade-
quate snow cover during the winter and partly as the result of floods in some
areas. In the Yangtze Valley dry weather through the winter months affected
the crop oivcrsely, but recent weather has be2n more favorable and the crop
now shows some improvement.

Changes in Winnipeg prices less than in Unit.3d States markets;
changes in Buenos Aires groat3r.

Wheat prices in Winnipeg declined during the last half of January but
have since advanced. Hovev:..r, the decline and the advance, influenced by
factors similar to those in our domestic markets, were much less thqn the
decline and advance in United States markets. For the week ended F3bruary 17
the May futures at Winnipeg averaged 74.8 cents in United States currency,
compared with 73.8 cents for the week ended February 3 and 76.6 cents for that
ended January 20 (table 2). iTo. 3 Manitoba Northern Spring wheat at Winnipeg
for the week ended February 17 averaged 68.7 cents in United Str.tes currency,
compared with 67.8 cents for the week ended February 3 and 69.6 ce.-ts for that
ended January 20. In the United States during this period th.: spr.\ad between
high and low prices was more than 4 cents (table 5).








-7-


At Buenos Aires, the March future for the week ended February 17 averaged
59.0 cents in United States currency, compared with 64.4 cents for the week ended
January 20.

Table 2.- Average closing price of Ma;- wheat futures, specified markets
and dates, 1938-39 and 1939-40

Winnino:p : Liverpool : Buenos : Kansas : Minne-
/ : : Aires : C : City : apolis
Period : 193.-:19- :_19g-^ :-199-:1s93- :1939- :1938-: 1939-;1938-: 1939-: 1938-: 1939-
: 39 : 4 : 39 0: 4 9 : o : 39 : ~ 0 : 39 : 40 : 39 : 40
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Month
Oct. : 62.5 63.5 65.6 --- --- 66.3 83.6 62.0 78.4 67.3 83.1
Nov. : 60.9 66.3 63.4 --- --- --- 657 86.3 61.2 81.2 67.7 85.0
Dec. : 61.9 75.6 65.0 --- -- -- 67.2 99.3 63.2 94.0 70.0 97.6
Jan. : 62.2 76.2 63.3 --- -- --- 69.5 100.9 66.0 99.5 72.5 99.2
Week
ended :
Jan. 6: 62.6 77.92/63.4 --- 3/68.7 70.2 105.2 66.9 99.7 73.3 103.1
13: 61.6 76.o 62.6 --- --- 3/66.1 69.0 100.7 65.7 95.1 71.9 98.5
20: 61.8 76.6 63.2 --- 3/59.6 3/64.4 69.4 101.0 65.g 95.6 72.2 99.4
27: 62.8 75.8 64.1 --- /59.6 3/62.8 69 7 99.5 66.2 94.2 72.8 98.2
Feb. 3; 62.6 73.8 63.2 --- 3/59.4 3/1. 69.0 96.8 65.2 91.4 71.8 95.6
10: 61.9 74.4 62.4 --- /59.5 3/57.8 68.0 98.9 64.1 93.4 70.6 97.7
17: 62.5 74.8 62.5 59.5 3/59.0 6.o0 101.1 64.3 95.1 70.5 98.5

High 4/: 62.8 77.9 64.1 --- /59.6 3/68.7 70.2 105.2 66.9 99.7 73.3 103.1
Low 7 :61.6 73.8 62.4 --- 3/59.4 A/57.8 68.0 96.8 64.1 91.4 70.5 95.6

I/ Conv rEions at noon buying rate of exchange.
Duty free wheat
1 March futures.
SJanuary 6 to February 17, 1940, and corresponding dates for 1939.

FT-K DOI,-STIC 1.--CAT SITUATION

BAC::-3RCLT.- Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to the
spring of 1937 were unusually high in relation to world prices, as
the result of small crops in the United States. During this same
period, prices in other countries also moved upward, reflecting a
world-wide recovery in commodity price levels, currency depreciation,
and reduced production. The average prices received by United States
producers for the 1931 and 1932 crops were 39 and 38 cents, respectiv4-
ly, compared with average prices for the four crops, 1933 to 1936
of 74, 85, S3, and 103 cents per bushel, respectively.

In 1937 United States production was large and prices to
growers declined to an average of 96 cents. In 1938, with domestic
production again large, with a record world crop and with lower
commodity prices, prices received by producers declined to an average







WS-40


of 56 cents, and would have averaged still lower had it not been for
the loan and export-subsidy programs which held domestic prices above
export parity.

Prices received by growers for wheat during the year beginning
July 1939 are expected to overage 70 cents or mor2. This also is rela-
tively high compared with the usual relationship to prices in other
countries, as a result of the operation of the agricultural programs,
the large quantities bling held by farmers, and poor prospects for the
1940 crop.

Wheat stocks Jul- 1, 1940 indicated at
about j3 t hilli'n bushels

Wheat stocks in the United States as of January 1940 are estimated at
615 million bushels. This is 39 million bushels less than a yorr earlier but
83 million bushels more than stocks on January 1, 1938 (table 3). On the basis
of the January 1, 1940 stocks figures and exports through December, domestic
wheat dise netrance for the July-D2c-mber 1939 period is indicated to be 364
million bu.shels compared with 385 million bushels in the same period a year
earlier. I"timates of wheat stocks on January 1 by classes and positions for
1936-40 are shown in table 11, and July-Dace:aber estimates of disappearance by
classes in table 4. Stocks of hard red winter, hard red spring, and durum
wheats together are about 3 million bushels larger than a year ago, but stocks
of soft red winter decreased 23 million bushels and white 19 million bushels.


Table 3.- Wheat stocks in the
Janu-iry 1, 1936 to


United States,
1940


Position : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 : 1939 : 1940


S1,000
On farms combined : bushels
with interior mills
and elevators ..........: 241,722
Commercial ..............: 76,694
Merchant mill stocks
and stored for others 1/: 109,634


1,000
bushels


205,268
62,366

102,832


1,000
bushels

321,860
94,520


1,000
bushels

417,185
128,748


115,567 107.706


Total .............. 428,050 370,
I Bureau of Census figures raised to repr
stocks.


466 531,947 653,639 614,904
esent all merchant mill and elevator


Wheat stocks on July 1, 1940 of about 300 million bushels are indicated
by the last col-ian in table 9, which shows the results of an analysis of sup-
ply and distribution by classes for the crop year. The figures for 1939-40
include a forecast of domestic disappe-rance of 670 million bushels and a
forecast of exports and shipments of about 42 million bushels. A domestic


1,000
bushels

367,831
132,842

114,231


I -


- 9 -





- 9 -


Table 4.-Estimates of wheat stocks, July 1, July-December imports and
Exports, December 31 stocks, and July-December disappearance,
continental United States, 1935-39

Item : 1935 : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 : 1939


:Mil.bu. Mil.bu.


All wheat
Stocks, July 1 1/ .....: 148
4 Production ............: 626
+ Imports, July-Dec. 3/ 21
- Exports, July-Dec. _/ .: 4
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .......: 428
Dom. disap.,July-Dec.5/: 363
Hard red winter
Stocks, July 1 ........: 68
+ Production ............ 203
- Exports, July-Dec. ....: 1
- Stocks, Dec. 31 ....... 147
Dom. disap.,July-Dec. .: 123
Soft red winter
Stocks, July 1 ........: 32
+ Production ............: 204
- Exports ...............: 0
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .......: 101
Dom. disap.,July-Dec. .: 135
Hard red spring
Stocks, July 1 ........: 27
4 Production ............: 108
4 Imports, July-Dec. ....: 19
- Exports ...............: 0
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .......: 111
Dom. disap.,July-Dec. 43
Durum
Stocks, July 1 .......: 5
+ Production ............: 25
+ Imports, July-Dec. ....: 2
- Exports ...............: 0
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .......: 19
Dom. disap.,July-Dec. .: 13
White
Stocks, July 1 ........: 16
+ Production ............: 86
- Exports, July-Dec. ...: 3
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .......: 50
Dom. disap.,July-Dec. .: 49


142
627
26
6
370
419


Mil. bu.


1/103(?/ 83)
876
0
4i
5382
407(2/396)


Mil. bu.

173(2/153)
932
0
46
6 54
405(2/385)


Mil. bu.


295(2/254)
755
0
30
615
405(2/364)


57 57(2/ 37) 77(2/ 60) 155(V114)
260 373 390 307
1 28 27 16
153 233 278 276
163 169(2/149) 162(2/145) 170(2/129)

27 15 40o( 37) 30
207 258 236 203
0 0 2 3
83 132 120 97
151 141 154(2/151) 133


34
51
15
0
3165
5


17
100
5
60
52


18
102
0
2
76
42


10
114
11
69
44


31
157
0
2
144
42


5
42

1
35
11

20
107
14
77
36


73
130
0
4
454
54


34


l/ Comparable series of July 1 stocks contains some new wheat.
2/ In 1937 and 193S newt wheat was estimated at 20 million bushels and in 1939
at 41 million bushels, which when respectively deducted, result in stocks on
July 1, 1937 of 83 million bushels, on July 1, 1938 of 153 million bushels,
and on July 1, 1939 of 254 million bushels.
3/ From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United States. Imports
include full-duty wheat, wheat "unfit for human consumption", and flour in
terms of wheat.
S4/ From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United States. Exports
are regular exports plus shipments to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, and
include wheat and flour made wholly from domestic wheat.
5/ Balancing item.


ws-4o


--


--


--


--


-- I


--






- 10 -


disappearance of 670 million bushels is about 50 million bushels less than the
large disappearance in 1936-39. This smaller domestic disappearance is a
result of a reduction in wheat feeding.

Subsidized export salas of wheat and flour may possibly total about 32
million bushels, ond unsubsidized sales to the Soviet Union may possibly amount
to 2 million bushels. Shipments to possessions usually average about 3 milliOL
bushels. Probably 8 million bushels ware sold before last July 1 and not ex-
ported until the current marketing season. These figures total 45 million
bushels, but it is to be expected thfrt gain all sales will not be shipped
before Juno 30, 1940. Asui.ing that 3 million bushels will be sold for export
but not shipped before the end of the marketing season, actual exports and
shipments would total about only 42 million bushels. (Exports of wheat and
flour made wholly of United States wheat for the period July through December
1939 were 28 million bushels. On the basis of weekly figures from the Depart-
ment of Commerce, exports for the Janu..ry-February 17 period are estimated at
about 5 million bushels, making a total of about 33 million bushels for the
season through Fobruary 17.)

Total wheat supply and distribution in the United States by crop years,
beginning with 1923, arc shown in table 8.

New table showing wheat supply and distribution
b calendar years since 1909

Wheat supply and distribution by calendar years, beginning with 1909
have now been computed and are presented as table 10. For the preparation 0o
this table it was necessary to estimate January 1 stocks. This was done by
starting with July 1 stocks (as yet unpublisned prior to 1923) and adding the
crop and imports. From this total was deducted the estimated distribution
for the July-Decenter period, which included the quar.tity of whert and flour
exported and shipped, and the quantity used domestically for food, feed, and
fall seeding.

Farm income from wheat in 12D9 about the
same as in 193

Cash farm income from wheat in 1939 is estimated at 396.7 million
dollars compared with 396.1 million dollars in 193-. Sales in 1939 at 625
million bushels were smaller than a year earlier, but this was offset by a
somewhat higher price per bushel.

Sales, average price per bushel, and cash.income beginning, with 1910
are shown in table 7, and cash income on the chart, page 1. These estimates
include total receipts by farmers from the sale of whent, but do not include
rental and benefit paymer.ts to farmers, on wheat in more recent years. These
calendar year income estimates were computed by taking estimated siles in each
monta and -.-:.luating them by the average price received by producer as of the
15th of the month. The calendar year income is the sum of the m.ntr.ly incomes
for the 12 celond:Lr year months. The United States estimate of income is the
sum of the State estimates.


ws-4o







WS-40


Domestic wheat prices sharply higher

Domestic wheat prices, after declining the last half of January,
have sin e recovered to almost the high point for the season reached in
December. The decline the last of January was influenced by moderating
weather and snow melting into the soil over much of the winter whc--,t belt
and by uncertainty regarding the liquidation of wheat loans. The advance
in February was due to a change in speculative sentiment, with traders
generally watching war developments and unsatisfactory crop conditions in
Europe. Increased foreign demand for United States c-heat and a fairly
orderly liquidation of wheat loans also have contributed to the rise.

The price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kansas City on February 17
was 9o.2 cents per bushel, compared with 95.4 cents for the week ended
February 3, and 103.6 cents for the week ended J:auary 6. The price of
No. 1 Dark I:orthern Spring wheat at Miinncaolis on February 17 averaged
103.2 cents per bushel, compared with 100.4 cents for the week-ended
February 3, and 109.5 cents for that ended January 6.

Wheat prices at Gulf and Pacific Co r.t ports are about 25 cents per
bushel above export parity, and prices of domestic spring wheat at Buffalo
are only about 11 cents lower than appr'-~intely the same quality of
Canadirn wheat, c.i.f., duty paid, at Buffalo.

Since January 19, w huT. the prrogra to indemnify wheat and flour
exports from the Pacific Coast to China and Hong flor. was made effective,
about 1-1/2 million bushels of wheat, including flour, for these desti-
nations have been indemnified. In addition, the Soviet Union purchased
between 1 and 2 million bushels for cx.:ort to Vladivostok, a transaction
which occu-rr d withljut subsidy.

Prices of domestic hard red winter '.h'at continue higher relative
to prices of northern spring wheat at Tinnipeg than prices of domestic
spring wheat. A cr-oparison of the current margins between prices at
domestic markets and Winrnipeg with those in 1934-35, when the present
situation -ws much the sane as at present, indicates that prices of hard
winter wheat are about as high as they were in 1934-35, whereas prices
of spring wheat t t ,Minneapolis are relatively lower in 1939-40 (table 6).
On the other hand, the price of red winter wheat is considerably higher
this season, compared with Winnipeg, than in 193L-35. Supplies of red
winter were slightly smaller in 1939 than in 1934, but available market
suppLlies are materially less because of large quantities being held under
loan this season. On the other hand, there is a much larger proportion
of the total supply of hard spring hoat Yiider loan than is the case with
hard winter whatt.


- 11 -





- 12 -


Table 5.- WeiFhtrd. average cash price of wheat, specified markets and
dates, 19.3l'-3a ad. 1939-40

:All cla-scz: Io. 2 : 1io. 1 : !T-. 2 Hard: No. 2 : Western
Month :a:n. grades :Hard Wintcr: k.-..Syrirn:A/ br ZDnum:.nei Winte: : White
or date : si ma.tkrt Is:Ka-_sr OJ Minneois"i s li- : Seattle 1/
:1.:1'. i9-: is -.1 39-: io-:19- -.-: 9qb-: lo,-.-: 19-:19-: 1938-: 1939-
__: : : 9 ): 4 : _40 : 43 : l
:Cents C Cets Cents Cents Cents C.its Ce-ts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


64.9 s7.s
68.3 99.g
72.6 101.8


105.6

101.06
101.6
101.2
97.3
99.1
9.6


63.3
66.9
70.9


S5.8
98.3
101.2


71.7 103.6
7C0. 100.9
70.0 99.5
71.7. 98.2
70.3 95.4
6S.5 97.6
68.3 9:.2


73.1
77.3
79.7


79.3
79.1
79.9
80.
79.s
77.7
76.4


90.9
107.O
10'.3.


10q.5
104.3
10,. 2
10. 3
10C.4
1C.'. 2
1:.2


34.9 39.1
70.1 102.2
72.7 100.2


74.3
72.0
72.4
72.7
72. '
70.3
7)."


104.2

98.2
93.5
95.5
10:'0.7
99.1


65.8 02.0
69.8 103.9
73.4 105.73


74.3
73.2
71.9
73.8
74.1
73.3
72.2


105.9c
104. C
102.6
104.5
100.9
103.2


63.3
64.9
67.6


67.5
67.4


65.5
6.8
68.1


a0 .O
83.7
E5.1


86.9
84.4
g5.5
85.1
Q3.2
85.9


High 2/ : 73.3 105.6 71.7 103.6 ,o.4 109.5 7.-3 104.2 74.3 108.9 68.5 86.9
Low 2/ : 69.6 97.3 68.3 95.4 7.4 I -'0.4 70.8 95.5 7.9 1CD.9 L6.5 83.2
Vi Weekly average of daily cash quotati-'ns, "i-ss ITo. 1 so.ckSd.
/ J-anuary 6 ?cbrut.ry 17, 1940, rand corresponding dates for 1939.

Table 6.- MaL:,-i:.s 'et-,:r:- domestic -7helot prices -nd nr-ices at W7innipg,
19731-5 E-.nd 139-40o


Domesti- mr rkets above I.'. 3 T-crthYern Srrir.-


Period


Month of" Dec.
1939
1934
Difference
MYonth cf Jan.
194o
1935
Difference


Secor.rl vre k in Feb. :

1935
Difference


: ':,r_~it WrG inirI"p __
:Ib.1 Dark ::. : .o. 2 irri ri, _r :__ o.2 Red Winter,
Sri; : .. Cit : C : St. Lo-ais
: C r.t3s C : :t Cents

: j.5 31.- 32.8 37.4
: "._ ___ : 2,12.8 30.0
: __- .1.1 0.0 7.4

35.7 -2.1 34.9 .2
_: 4..2_____ 35 .__ .L ___l
: -1 _..1 -0.2 __ _L-.. ____


34.5 29.5
42.9 q _.6
-8.17 i.u


73.2


35.0
25.6
9.4


1J United StoAn pric.-r a.re wei h+..-d on ihe b-asis of reported carlot sales.


Month-

Dec.
Jan.
7e ek
end d-
Jan. 6
13
20
27
Feb. 3
10
17


73.3
72.7
72.3
72.5
71.5
C .6
.70.0


WS-o3


-- --


--








- 13 -


Table 7.- United States sales, average price per bushel, and cash income,
1910-39


Calendar S e Avera-e price Cash
year Saes pet bushel / income
__________________________ ______ :_______________


1910
1911
1912
1913

1915
1916
1917
1919

1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
19 "6
1927


1

1932
1933

1]935
1936

1937
1938
1939


1,000
bushels

519, 684
530,231
590, 923
632,307
773,318
768,757
686,733
532,329
754,655
746,571

639,823
790,005
67::', 382
643, 'P1
710,045
57',721
66o,678
754, 63
740,604
706,719

618,940
635,797
543,1:6
468,067
383, 9-8
451,430
465, '36
56,/ 3
657,156
624, 95 3


Dollars

.95

.83
.78
.87
1.01
1.21
2.00
2.03
2.11

2.14
1.10
.97
.94
1.12
1.46
1.26
1.19
1.04
1.03


.73
.42
.37
.65
.82

.97
1.03
.60
.63


1,000
dollars


494,649
445,952
493,335
492,892
673,982
773,391
828,642
1,066,869
1,532,743
1,572,387

1,367,759
866,042
660,955
604,969
798,762
843,613
842,854
894,974
770,485
726, 949


451,447
265,723
19,75'7
304,030
316,725
372, 178
/D0,459
604, 640
3`,082
396,677


1/ 7'eighted by sales in each State.


WS-40














Table 8.- Wheatt Supply ma distribution n t ntiwntal United States, 1923-39
SPPILT
SStockl Ju ly I ;
S : a I In ar-
T n In con- t Com. I hant I Import l
Tew M g July: A fearm try eleve- mertial aills an" Total I New crop r (flour i T tal
4 tore end stooek I/ lelerators t I cluded'Z3s
I : mille 3 ant
SI atored forl : I
a I I others 3/ I 3
With new i&eat in 1 1,000 1,0 1. 1. 1000 10,00 1,000 1,000 1000 1000
commercial sand I bushesi9 Ib&uJl buahels bAhula Ibathel brlalj bnhalA
merchat mill I
etockst a
1923 ........... 35.239 37 7 28.956 31,000 132.312 759.482 14,578 906.372
1924 ........... 29,349 36.626 38.112 33,000 137,087 81,a617 304 979.008
1925 ........... 28,638 25.287 28,900 25,576 108os01 668.700 1,747 778.848
1926 ...........t 27.071 29,501 16,14 27.50 100.225 83. 213 77 93?.515
1927 ........... 2b,6W0 21,776 21,052 0o.ojg 109.506 875.059 188 985,753
1928 ........... 1958 19277 38.57 34.920 112,372 911.373 91 1,02b.b36
1929 ........ 451.10461,546 90,0 51.279 s28373 823.217 53 10.51.643
1930 ............ 60,26 60.166 109,327 59.170 288,879 886.k70 3 1.175.703
1931 ........... 37.867 3.25 203967 41,202 313.288 911.674 7 1.254.969
1932 ........... 93.769 .585 168,.05 71.714 375,.73 756,927 10 1.132.1to
193............. 82,882 64.293 123.712 107,052 377.939 51.683 153 929.775
1934 ........... 62,51b 48,128 80,548 83,114 2740 52639 69 86.26
1935 ........... 44,339 31,681 a,951 19,524 17.95 66,3 367 808.456
1936 ........... t43,988 22.191 25.202 50,590 141.971 626.766 3b.1 803195
1937 ........... 21,851 11,818 16.197 52,899 102,765 875.676 6 979.075
1938 ........... 59.113 31,186 28.333 54.21l 172.846 931.702 2 1.10o. 791
1939 ........... 90.372 38.291 81,334 85.029 295,026 7511.97 1.04o9.997
With only old wheat
in all etocke postl-
tionet 3
1937 ........... t 21,85 11.818 a / 9,022 6 40.399 83.090 875,676 634 959.=00
1938 .......... 59.113 31,186 22.190 4 140,791 153.280 931.702 2 6 1,o05.22
1939 ........... 90,372 38.291 ./ 64.103 / 61,054 253.820 754,971 1008,791
DIS RIBUTION
S LExports and shilments 3/ Domestic dieappearance a Per
S 2 : F eed a I iaapi ta
Tear be- l portE :I ports mi ; I (fed on lo Sts ; -
etnning: I nento :fares of 2and 0cm- I S Juns 30 1 poar-
giantag 8(wat floor as! (flowr T i,^ fae of san total l ] 3 anose
JuTly only) : heat includedd) a Seed : .m : mrctial otalI t t
S : :I : oe.. .. 2, i Ifeedst
: I i i i i -a)
2 2 I l seed)

With new : 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1.000 1,000 1,000 1.000 1,000
wheat in I ]auhrli bushels buahels bushel bnushels bushel& buashla bbula A iLaAhl
commercial
and mer- :
chant till
stockel 2
1923 *.. 78.793 67.23 2.973 148.979 74.111 69,670 476.525 620,306 137.087 4.9
1924 ..i 195.490 59,478 2,871 257.839 79.895 55.727 477.146 612.768 108,101 4.7
1925 .. 63,189 3128 2,741 97.358 78,828 28,214 474,223 581,265 100,225 4.3
1926 .. 156,250 49,761 3,082 209.093 83,264 3.261 496,391 613.916 109,506 4.5
1927 .. 145,999 45.228 2,692 193.919 s89.84 507 544,09 678,462 112.372 4.9
1928 ..1 103,114 38,106 3.172 144392 83.663 56566 513.842 64,071 228.373 4.7
1929 ..t 93175 4.179 2,983 143,337 83,353 58.769 477.305 619.42T 25.879 4.4
1930 .. 76,365 36,063 2,850 115.278 80,866 157.1s 509.063 747.137 313.28 5.4
1931 ..1 96521 26,376 2.757 125.654 80.049 173,991 499.o02 753,842 375.473 5.4
1932 ..* 20,87 10,979 3.023 34.89 83.513 124,912 511,157 719582 377.939 5.1
1933 18.e800 6,798 2.779 28.377 77.832 72,261 476.999 627.092 27U.306 4.4
1934 .. 3.019 7.512 2.783 13.314 82s,2o s3.700oo 9.539 65.4 549 17.195 4.5
1935 *. 311 3.896 2.908 7.115 87.555 s83 168 s.6 659.3 67 111.974 4.5
1936 .. 3.168 6.099 3,009 12.276 96.593 88.272 503,289 6 154 102.765 4.7
1937 ..: 83717 16.322 ,321 103.390 94.533 112.860 195.426 702.839 172.866 4.7
1938 ..* 84589 22.057 2.895 109o51 77.987 131.643 490,597 ?70o227 295.026 1/
With only I
old wheatt
in all 2
stocks I
positionel
1937 .. 83.747 16.322 3,321 103,390 94,533 112,860 495.337 702,730 153. 4.7
1938 *. 84,589 22.057 2,895 109o541 77.987 131,643 512,237 721,867 253.eso 1
1939 ..1
j 1923 to 1926 Bradetreet's, excluding country elevator stocks.
g/ Stocks in merchant mulls and elevators 1923 and 1924 estimated in absence of actual figaree; 1925-39,
Buremn of Cens figures raised to represent all merchant mills. Stred for others 1923-29. estimated in
absence of actual fires; 1930-39, Burmea of Cenus figure raised to represent all merchant mills.
I/ Prom reports of Foreign and Domestic Commrce of the United States. Imports include fill-duty wheat, wheat
paying a duty of 10 percent ad valorem, and flour in term of wheat; and exclude flour free for export as
follows 42,742 bushels in 1935-36; 108.095 bushele in 1937-38. Ezporte include only floor made from domestic
wheatt 1923-35 estimated on basis of total exports lese wheat Imported for milling in bond and export adjated
for changes in carry-over; beginning 1935 figures for exports of foor holly from United States wheat.
Includes durum wheat returned from Montreal, estimated at 1.90.000 bushels.
Excludes new wheat as follows: 1937. 7.175.000 bushels: 193,8 6.143,000 bushele, and 1939. 17.231,000
bushel.
6/ For 19q7 excludes new wheat estimated at 12.500,000 bushels; for 1938 excludes 13.123.000 bushels and 193?.
23.975.000 reported as new wheat by Bureau of Censue.
I/ Shipments are to Alaska. Hawail, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands (Virgin Islands prior to Dec. 31. 1934.
Included with domestic exports).
SBalancing item.
f/ For individual items, see eupoly section of this table.
LF/Population estimate nct e.allable.
Bureau of Agricu tural Economics end Agricultural Marketing Service.


- ____j





ws-4o 15 -
Table 9.- Wheat: Estimated supply and distribution by classes, average
1929-33, annually years beginning July 1, 1937-39
: Average : Year beginning July 1
Item :1929-3 / : 1937 1938 : 1939
V a:il. bo Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.

: All wheat
Stocks, July 1 .........: 1 317 83 153 254
Production ............: 792 876 932 755
Supply ............: 1,109 959 1,085 1,009
Exports 2/ .............: 90 103 109 (42)
Carry-over ............: 25 153 254 (297)
Dom. disapp arance 6j ..: 694 703 722 (670)
: Hard Red Winter
Stocks, July 1 .........: 161 37 60 114
Production .............: 349 373 390 307
Supply ..........: 510 410 :150 421
Exports .......... ......: 52 69 68 (21)
Carry-over .............: 167 60 114 (164)
Dom. disappearance .....: 291 281 268 (236)
: Soft Red Winter
Stocks, July 1 .........: 32 15 37 30
Production .............: 15 258 236 203


Supply ............
Exports .................:
Carry-over .............:
Dom. disapp-arance .....:
*


217 273 273 233
2 5 5 (2)
35 37 30 (28)
180 231 238 (203)
Hard Red Spring


Stocks, July 1 ........: 79 18 31 73
Production ..............: 135 102 157 130
Supply .......... : 214 120 188 203
Exports ..... ..........: 1 3 4 (5
Carry-over ...............: 79 31 73 (70)
Dom. disappearance ......: 134 86 1i (128)
: Durum
Stocks, July 1 .........: 24 3 5 18
Production ............. : 40 29 42 35
Supply ............: 64 32 ~ 7 53
Exports ................: 7 0 2 (0)
Carry-over .............: 20 5 18 (21)
Dom. disappearance .....: 37 27 27 (32)
: White
Stocks, July 1 .........: 21 10 20 19
Production ............: 83 114 107 80
Supply ...........: 104 124 127 99
Exports ................: 28 26 30 (14)
Carry-over .............: 24 20 19 (14)
Dom. disappearance .....: 52 78 78 (71)
1/ Average for 1929-33 used because drought years which followed were not rep-
resentative. New heat in commercial and merchant mill stocks prior to 1937
in the average. 2/From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the US.
Exports are reguThr exports plus shipments to Alaska,Hawaii, and Puerto Rico,
and include wheat, and flour made wholly of domestic wheat. / Balancing item.
See "The Wheat Situation",February 1937 for the figures for T930,August 1937
for those for 1931 and 1932, February 1938 for 1933, and February 1939 for
1934-1936.






- 16 -


Table 10.- I'iheat: Supply anr distri'':ticn in continental United States,
calendar yea:'s, 193'-39


Stocks : I"- rt s:
: Stocks : :ss re-: Tot
Year J -Ln. 1 Product ion
/: :exPort s: s''r.
1 /' ,-


: IJillicn Millicn
: busIels buh q'e.s


389
4 07

425


A'E
490
532
6,6
464
3?:5
4 "3





SI
,0.r, 2
5.7
:f-1
350



5-6


1909
1910

1911
191-12
1913
191
1915
191.5
1?17
1918
1919
1920

1921
1922
1.923
1 2 3
19224
1925
1c2 1

1928
1Q27

1929
1930

1931
1032
1933
1 iC

1935
1937
193-'
193?


i;3
5 ?,


I .' ,
' 4

U2 ,
(r,


6.^
62!

610'
73r,
751
09"
1,00'9
635
62.J
904
95


:19



Tor
)-I

'? 2 n



75';.
552
520


S7,'

755


:- 'i :
_ -I
ii.li:n r'Mill
b;h,. lis buih


: : Apparent


a. : s -r..ts : toc!.: s domestic
Dy : 3 : Dec. 31 :iisappear-
: : :ance L4/
ion L1. lion million n Lillion
-ls bushels bushels bushels


1.074
1,033

1,045
1,142
1, 230

5 41-.
1, 325
1,546

1 ,.20
1,255
1 2 3




- -9 -'::
-1,43




7q
,-)-
1, 366
1,295






4

1,6302
1,125


"I l ,
' 0. ,





1,132
1,09

1,?.*.'
1,60
1,4-50


96
66

8
114
150
23,6
2 1 1)
232
172
211
271
313

362
23

.244
142
19"
231
155
157
152

12?
835
29
39
19
22
59
114
103


407
425

409
1,78
490
532
656
464
335
43 3
599
520;

/.23

151
4 '.2
3-0S
43" .
L73
566-
58
6'3

723"
717
5 ?'/
1/ L3.',
42)
370
532
654
615


571
542

548
550
580
620
608
612
613
561
573
648

581
585
624
623
603
593
619
0
685
661
677

764
693
663
659
652
716
673
700
702


1/ Stocks Jan. 1: 1 09-34, etijr.ated by Bureau of Aigrictiltural Econo ics; 1935-3g-
sum of stocks on farim.s, in country elevators and mills, in commercial centers, and
in mc:rchalnt mills and elevattors.
2/ Imports include wheat as Tri".. for do:.,estic use, also wheat as :rain i.iported for
milling in bond, also flour from r-;pcrts of Bureau of Domestic and Foreign Commerce.
J/ Fxports include flour made fro:l domestic wheat, also flour from foreign wheat
milled in bond, also 3shipl.ients to noncontiuous t-rritories. From reports of Bu-
reau of Domestic and Foreign Commerce.
4/ Balancing it m.


WS-40


I







- 17 -


Table 11.- Estimates of stocks of wheat by classes, continental
United States, January 1, 1936-40


Position 1936 1937
: Million Million
:bushels bushels


1938 : 1939
Million Milli
bushels bushe


. 1940


o0
1


All wheat:
Farm stocks combined with :
interior mill & elevator :
stocks ..................: 242 205 322 417
Commercial stocks ........: 77 62 95 129
Merchant mill stocks _/ ..: 109 103 115 108
Total .................28 370 532 64
Hard red winter:
Farm stocks combined with :
interior mill & elevator :
stocks ......................: 63 62 110 145
Commercial stocks ........: 27 31 52 6g
Merchant mill stocks .....: 57 60 71 65
Total .................: 147 153 233 278
Soft red winter:
Farm stocks combined with :
interior mill & elevator
stocks ..................: 68 55 87 g6
Commercial.stocks ........: 16 12 25 20
Merchant mill stocks .....: 17 16 20 14
Total .................; 101 83 132 120
Hard red spring:
Farm stocks combined with :
interior mill & elevator :
stocks ...................: 57 34 51 93
Commercial stocks ........: 27 12 10 32
Merchant mill stocks .....: 27 19 14 19
Total .................: 111 5 75 1 44


n Million
s bushels



368
133
114
615



129
75
72
276



65
17
15
97


98
31
16
_ 1l5


D-rum:
Farm stocks combined with
interior mill & elevator :
stocks .................: 15 7 15
Commercial stocks ........: 2 1 4
Merchant mill stocks .....: 2 1 4
Total .................: 19 23_


White: -
Farm stocks combined with
interior mill & elevator :
stocks ..................: 39 47 59 67 4g
Commercial stocks ........: 5 64 5
Merchant mill stocks ....: 6 7 6 5
Total ..............0... 0......6_.. 69 l 77 58_
1/ Bureau of Census figures raised to represent all merchant mill and elevator
stocks, including stored for others.


, ,


I






Table 12.-1Wheat: Estimated world supply, disappearance and prices, 1922-39


: Production 2/ :ritish
: Stocks : : Net : Total :Parcela,
Year : about :: C-nada, : : : exports : Total disap- :average
beginning: July 1 : Argen- : from : supply pear- : price
July : United :tina and: ex- : All : World : U.S.S.R.: ance : per
States Au- cluding : their : J : busel
: tr a U.S.S.R.: *
: : tralia :* :
:Mil. bu. Mi bu. M.il. bu.bu Mil b M b M. bu. Mil. bu. Cents
1922 : 647 847 705 1,050 616 3,218 1 3,66 3,289 92
1923 : 577 759 847 1,263 666 3,535 21 ,13 3,410 84
1924 : 723 8412 619 1,064 618 3,143 3,66 3,293 110
1925 : 573 669 701 1,4o4 622 3,396 27 3,996 3,343 108
1926 : 653 832 798 1,215 659 3,504 49 4,206 3,519 108
1927 : 687 875 880 1,275 653 3,683 5 4,375 3,624 i04
1928 : 751 914 1,076 1, 409 606 4,005 -- 4,756 3,736 91
1929 : 1,020 823 595 1,449 715 3,582 7 4,609 3,665 101
1930 : 943 886 867 1,360 781 3,894 112 4,949 3,903 75
1931 : 1,046 942 732 1,436 767 3,877 70 4,993 3,950 76
1932 : 1,043 757 898 1,490 731 3,876 17 4,936 3,79 78
1933 : 1,144 552 745 746 805 3,848 34 5,026 3,833 70
1934 : 1,193 526 650 l,54g 837 3,561 2 4,756 3,804 79
1935 : 952 626 568 1,576 832 3,602 29 4,583 3,815 84
1936 : 767 627 620 1, 481 856 3,584 4 4,355 3, 81 105
1937 : 539 876 552 1, 539- 885 3,852 39 4,430 3,811 105
1938 2619 932 851 1,859 963 4,605 37 5,261 4,031 61
1939 : 1,230 755 818 1,717 977 4,267 6/- 5/96 4,027
1j Excludes U.S.S.R. and China. Includes some new wheat in United States commercial and merchant mill stocks.
2/ Year of harvest. Harvests of the Northern Hemisphere countries are combined with those of the Southern
Hemisphere which immediately follow; thus the crop harvested in the Northern Hemisphere countries in 1939
is combined with the Southern Hemisphere harvest which begins late in 1939 and ends early in 1940.
V] Excludes production and stocks in U.S.S.R. and China but includes net exports from U.S.S.R. 4/ Deflated
by Statist Index (1910-14 = 100) and converted at par. / Preliminary. 6 Net imports,
Production and export figures from official sources. Prices compiled from daily prices in the London
Grain, Seed and Oil Reporter.







ws-4o


- 19 -


Table 13.- United States domestic exports of wheat to specified
countries, semi-annually beginning July 1936

: 1936-37 19-37-3 1938-39 : 1939
Country : July- 7: Jan.- : July- : Jan.- : July- : Jan.- : July-
: Dec. : June : Dec. : June : Dec. :June I/ :Dec. 1/
S1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: blshels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

Belgium .........: 19 191 5,981 6,451 6,003; 7,344 4,583
Denmark .........: -- --- 14 1,580 236 --
France ..........: 35 65 523 307 5b0 309 74
Germany 2/ .....: -- 669 644 2,570 178 201
Greece ..........: -- 622 1,851 302 40 30
Ireland ........: 399 --- 3,395 8,103 3,056 3,548 296
Italy ...........: 204 39 410 778 616 .4.0 11
Netherlands .....: 336 868 6,318 5,281 10,219 5,244 3,476
Norway ...........: --- --- 149 466 205 120 159
United Kingdom ..: 197 2 6,560 16,063 8,829 .20,366 2,510
Other Europe ....: 11 .... 2 $ ,13__4 206 2,,290 .1,653
Total Europe ..: 1,201 1,167 25,312 43,658 32, n2 39,179 12,993
Canada ..........: 34 ISO 5, 5 3,49 2,018 .947 1,426
M-.-ico ..........: 8 1 995 2,275 619 1,870 100
P :maa / ......: 252 --- 1 1 4/ 1 .
S. l-3.dor ........: 70 69 114 66 1T3 157 112
E. il .........: -- -- 356 4/ --- --- /
Col:..bia ........: 4/ 1 56 193 169 123 231
Pe iu ............: -- --- 587 --- 55 --
China ...........: -- ----- --- 619 5,168 167
Jaa.n .........:. : 133 --- 42 --- -- --
Other countries .: 35 18 525 185 151 268 172
Total exports 1,733 1,436 33,413 50,327 36,576 48,013 15,201

1/ Preliminary.
2/ Trade data for Germany include Austria beginning May 6, 1938; Sudeten area as
far az ascertainable, beginning November 10, 1938; Czecho-Slovak provinces
oc-cuied by Ger.any, beginning March 18 or 19, 1939 and -1 -l beginning March 25,
1939.
Includes Canal Zone and Republic of Panama.
Less than 500.

Compiled from official records of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.


II~







- 20 -


Table 14.- United States exports of wheat flour made wholly
from United States wheat, to specified countries,
semi-annually, beginning July 1936


'Commodity : 1936-37 1937-38 1938-39 : 1939
and : July- : Jan.- : July- : Jan.- : July- : Jan.- : July-
country : Dec. : June : Dec. : June : Dec. :Jne 1/ :Dec. I/
S1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000. 1,000 1,000 1,00
: barrels barrels barrels barrels barrels barrels barrels


Wheat flour 2/ :
Netherlands .....: 53 106 258 240 201
Norway ...........: -- 3 24 40 20
United Kingdom ...: 24 21 70 123 52
Costa Rica .......: 7 14 22 41 29
Guatemala .......: 21 33 53 44 49
Nicaragua ........: 15 18 15 10 20
Panama 4/ .......: 28 24 39 40 4
Salvador .,....... 7 11 15 11 ii
Mexico ..........: 4 8 13 3 2
Cuba .............: 80 102 20g8 03 241
Haiti, Republic of: 9 11 18 22 21
Ecuador .........: 25 26 65 60 42
Venezuela .. ..: 5 4 32 66 45
China .. ..........: 10 8 81 144 1,
Hong Kong ........: 14 20 184 98 11
Philippine Islands: 238 233 294 429 4'50
Other countries ..: 47 79 233 311 278


Total ........ 578 720 1,551 1,922 1,7F1


268 48g
9 98
14 51
20 26
47 49
25 31
38 51
10 19
3 4
221 299
22 25
77 102
28 70
099 245
337 54
529 531
165 655


2,912


2,781


Compiled from official records of the Bureau of Foreii rind Domestic Commerce.

l/ Preliminary.
2/ To convert to wheat equivalent multiply by 4.7.
3/ Less than 500.
SIncludes Canal Zone and Republic of Panama.


ws-40


___










Table 15.- Wheat including flour, in terms of grain: International trade, calendar year,
1935-38
i 1935 1936 1937 1938 1i/
Country export Imports Exports Imports Expo rts Imports Exports Imports


Principal exporting :1.000 bt 1.000 bu.
countries t
Algeria ............. 11,731 875
Argentina ............: 146.313 0
Australia ............: 101,433 3
Britith India ........ 2,304 742
Bulgaria .............: 1.293 0
Canada .............. 187,647 521
Chile ................ 784 775
Hungry ...............: 14,820 0
Rumania ............. 9,278 5
Tunisia ..............; 6,657 274
United States ........: 1/4,639 1/27,901
Union of Soviet
Socialist Republios 1 27,960 1,221
Tugovlaria ........... 1,229 0
Total ......... 516,088 31.917


11.346
63.209
97,710
9,287
4.720
264,867
1,841
23.706
22,442
1.934
6,476

4,968
11,019
523.525


710
o
0
2
580
0
383
31
0
3
1,125
39.862

19 633
0
43,329


7.129
147,647
99.497
20,636
7.232
114. 100
1
16,073
36,788
3.128
45.518

33.972
12,090
544,111


1,443
'0
2
499
0
1.359
253
0
0
928
.8.789
12/ 78
1
13.352


4,987
75.549
125,487
16,132
4,o56
131.782
0
17.965
2/32.420
3.765
104,305
49,448
4,555
570,451


12/2,010
1
1
3,749
0
o
6.037
186
0
12/ 0
402
69

4,764
0
17,219


Principal importing
countries
Austria ..............
Belgium ............
Brazil .............. :
Ceylon ................
China ................S
C a ........ ....... o
Csechoslovakia .......
Denmark ..............
BEpt .................
Estonia ..............
Inland ...............
Trance ...............
Germany ..............
Greece ............:
Indo-China ...........
Ireland ..............
Italy ................:
Japan ................
Latvia ..............
Manchuria ............. :
Netherlands .........:
Netherland India .....:
lew Zealand .........:
eNorway ........ 0....:
Palestine ............
Peru ...............:
Poland ...............
Spain ................
Sweden ................
Switzerland 1/ ......
Union of South Africa
United Xingdom .......
Total ........:


35
2.293
1
0

0

100



1,116
0
0
o
0
10.456
14,637
2,415
782
1,381
0
0
9
35
1
5,873
7
4,512
4
163
6.915
90.874


9,054
38,928
34,699
1,135
21,724
4.,702
3.544
14,056
1.612
0
3.785
28,793
5.976
16,337
908
15,122
20.322
16,458
0
23.558
21,562
4,132
820
8,918
2,368
5,184
1
30
1,571
17,641
81
208,375
531,396


70
2,078
17
0
1,631
0
2,977
119
22
111
0
18.342
3.227
0
1
0
7,763
6.576
138
570
279
0
2
5
0
0
o
7.765
3,401
4
177
6.162
61.437


7.811
44,003
36,371
889
5,861
4,566
69
9.065
162
163
4,008
22,015
2.752
17.366
937
15.965
19,700
12.540
0
10.656
20,404
3.617
756
7,116
2.342
4, 456
0

1.795
17,047
68
208,148
480,648


104
5.583
12
0
341
0
11,654
913
1,185
110
0
6,797
218
0
1
0
8.486
8,149
0
787
1,211
0
1
2
42
0
1,575

1.134
7
1,197
4.059
53.568


9,192
44,977
36,292 11
923
3.120
4.796
1,280 20
6,409
119
267
3,261
18,8114
47.239 V/
18,626
964
12,847
61,109
7.326
1.275
3.971
24,162
3,.883
1,600
8,082
2,748
4,549
57

1,.55
16,116
39
199,421
545,349


ag/ 16
5.214
/ 42
0
573
0
/2,949
361
354
0
0
6.794
170
0
1
0
5,116
L4,453
35
559
97
2
0
4
1
o
2,065

1,466
4
210
5,584
46.o7o


asrs._: Abootnotes follow
1939, which aeo


the ease numbering as table
showed years 1909-3 .


11, pages 13-19, in Wheat Situation for January 24,


1l Wheat only beginning 1919.
Preliminary.
1/ Imports for coniumption beginning 1934; comprise "wheat unfit for human consumption" and "wheat,
other' (42# dutiable) and all wheat flour. (Excludea wheat "for milling in bond and export" and
flour "imported in bond for export".)
/ Beginning 1935 exports are all domestic wheat and flour "made from wholly United States wheat".
1/ International Tearbook of Agricultural Statistics.
20 Beginning April 1938 trade between Germany and Austria no longer reported as foreign trade in the
German statistic. The same applies to trade between Germany and Sudetenland (Czechoslovakia)
for the period September December 1938.
Compiled from official sources, except as otherwise noted.


g/s.,433
38.197
1./7.215
918
12.896
4,661
0/14,360
7,174
214
154
3.337
19,431
20/48.308
17.503
1,229
15,126
11,388
2,456
1.195
6,689
27,118
4, 320
3.447
8,128
2, 431
4.575
453
2,011
16,857
2,644
207,201
490.069


--


,,,1_


100oo0 1.000 b. 1.000 bu 1.000 bu. 1.000 bu,. 1.00 b.






wS-o4


- 22 -


Table 16.- Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,
1938-39 and 1939-40

(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)


Heat


Period : : : including flour
: 1938-39 : 1939-40 : 1938-39 : 1939-40 : 193S-39 : 1939-40
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels barrels barrels bushels bushels


July-Dec.
Week ended l/ -
Jan. 6
13
20
27
Feb. 3
10
17


36,576


602
1,934
2,155
2,853
2,138
3,103
1,419


15,201

3
392
528
126
704
395
2/ 230


2,713


49
76
41


121
39


39
o104
84
43
54
72
2/ 79


49,328

832
2,291
2,3 8
3,929
2,345
3,672
1,602


33,168
186
881
923
329
958
733
2/ 601


Compiled from reTorts of the Department of Commerce.
1/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not available.
These data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ Preliminary.



Table 17.- Shioments of wheat, including flour, from principal
exporting countries, specified dates, 1938-39 and 1939-40

S Argentina : Australia : Danube : North America
Period :___ __
1938-39:19339-40: 193g-39:193-4: 238-393: 1939-40 :4 l :- l93-49
S1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,,'0 1,06
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bu.sh:ls bushels


July-Dec.
Week ended -:
Jan. 6
13
20
27
Feb. 3
10
17
24


28,016 89,820


Eno
1,6 8
2,264
2,112
3,8c00
2,272
3,2%
1,18g


2,737
3,656
3,n38
3,770
2,408
1,936
1,995
3,710


41,024 1/11,028 23,480 20,560


816
2,180
2,028
2,804
1,988
3,608
2,912
2, 389


121,192 94,480


552 732 4,1o0 2,469
1,912 1,24o 4,776 2,446
1, 4 760 4,704 3,217
1,240 880 5,496 5,835
1,496 KC8 6,344 4,611
1,584 96S6 4,6s 4,233
928 97b 3,?12 4,425
568 768 5. 44 ---
.-4_ i- -------.-


Compiled from Br;oomhalls Corn ..rae iews.
_J Thro.:-h September 2 only.
2 Not available.


Wheatn f.


Wheat flour






WS-40


- 23 -.


Table 18.- .Tovement of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
countries, 1938-37 to 1939-40

:7 Exkor-ts as given by official sources
Country : Total : July 1 to date shown : Date
Ls____ se bhe bue-y -39 s b7-e 1 38-5b9 : h].e39-40
-:- i, 1 ,.. I, c,1 C C,
:bushel.s bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


;d States 1/ .....: 21,584 107,194,
la ........ ....: 213,028 94,546
ntina ............: 162,977 69,670
-alia ............: 9.7,712 123,453
it Union .........: 4,479 45,354
iry ..............: 27,428 9,368
lavia ...........: 17,954 5,012
ia ..............: 36,258 32,210
iria .............: 7,275 8,4-9
ish India ........: 16,571 19,677
Total ... .....C: 6C5,266 512,973


: l,C00
:bushels


North America 3/ .....: 184,720
Canada 4/ ............: 94,546
United States 6/ .....: 83,539
Argentina ............: 66,928
Australia ............: 127,520
Soviet Union .........: 42,248
Danube and Bulgaria 8/: 37,232
British India ........:9/19,677
Total 10/ .......: 478,325
Total European
shipments 3/ ,..: 397,592


Total ex-European:
shipments 3/ ...: 99,400


115,784
159,885
116,116
96,685

27,650
5,346
43,940
2,633
10,097
578,136


45,113
69,856
21,765
22,035

4,126
4,445
19,92
3,973
9,254


-49,328
108,154
27,645
24,945

13,184
3,817
.17,951
179
7,871


33,167
139,248
90,821
19,722

22,530
-5,345
15,197
3,195
2/ 1,251


Dec.
Jan.
Dec.
Oct.

Nov.

Nov.
ilov.
Oct.


S Shipments as given by trade sources
: T-ot al: ":e7- ended'1939-40 : July 1-: Feb. 17
:1'37-3 8 :19 -3,-3 : 'eb. 3 :Feb. 10:Feb. 17:1938-39 : 1939-40


1,000
bushels

245,296
159,885
94,157
114,272
102,116
39,824
52,848
9/10,097


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


4,611
5,300
958
2,408

0
8C8
0


4,233
5/ 3,500
733
1,936

0
936
0


1,000
bushels

4,425
5/3,800
601
1,995

0
976
0


1,000
bushels

155,120
112,700
54,985
44,040
7/18,696
38,848
32,776
6,208


1,000
bushels


121,716
156,000
28,605
109,360
7/ 11,C28
2,342
26,962
0


564,453 295,688 271,408

450,784

146,760


j/ Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
Excludes land trade for August-October 1939.
~J/ Broomhoall's Corn Trade I'rv:s.
Official exports as reported to date, supplemented by reported weekly clear-
ances of wheat, and estimates of flour shipments.
5/ Fi;'.cre derived by subtracting the United States exports from Broomhall's esti-
mate for North America.
6/ 0 [ cial reports received from 16 principal ports only.
7/ T7:rcgh September 2 only.
8/ iacic Sea shipments only.
9// Official.
TO/ Total of trade figures includes I:orth America as reported by Broomhall's but
adrs notu include items 2 and 3.


Unite
Canac
Arger
Austr
Soviet
Hung
Yugos
Rumar
Bulge
Briti


--


~-"L ~--------~-----







- 24 -


Table 19.- Net imports of wheat including flour, into European
countries, years beginning July 1, 1937 to 1939

u: 7- : 93 : Rerted net imports
Co untrv 1P37-38 193P-39
S:___ J1ly 1 t: : 195-39 : 1939-40
: l. bu. I,.il. bu.. T.. bu. Mil. bu.


Belgium ...*.............:
Czechoslovakia ........: / -
Denmark .........
Finland ........... ..:
France ..*...........
Germany .............:)
Austria ... ... ... :)
Greece .... ..........:
Ireland ................:
Italy .................. :
Latvia .,. ......... :
lietherlands ..,.........
Norv;&y .............. :
Poland .................
Portugal ............. :
Sweden *............... / -
Switzerland ...........:
United Kingdom ........:
T,'ta. ir..orts of
F,.'Ve.r .. ...... :


Spain ..................:
Tctal in.:-rt ...... :
Total cxr' rtc ........:
Total i-t inTvirtL ....:


39
1/- 1
5
r,


2

.45


18 14
14 17
5 14
1 /
24 29
7 IG
y /- f
1 4
1 -2
14 .1
193 41

591 413


3 <1
394 4.,
2 F
.92 42:C


Compiled from official sources except as otherwise state.d.


Net exports.
Less than 500,000 bushels.
Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.


Sept.
Aug.
Nov.
Aug.
July

July

HIov.
Aug.
.July
Au'g.
Dec.
Dec.
TJuly
'!ov.
Sept.

Aug.


7
3
2
2/
2/
-'-2

1

6
3
2
0
16
8

3/

Ti
11
48


107
- 2
105


1/


2

6
2
3
2/
15
4
3/

10
10
3U


102
0
102


-----


WS 4 0


1/ -






Ws-4o


THE PYE SITUATION

BACKGROUITD.- During the past 10 years rye acreage has
remained above pre-war levels, lIrgely because of the
c.-ansion of rye production into the sub-humid areas of
the spri~:; wheat belt. In 1933 and 1934 the harvested
ac:e,-:e was gr3c.tly reduced because of heavy abandonment.
In both of these years and in 1936 also, production was
greatly reduced because of unusually low yields. In
1935, 1937, and 1938, production was large, not only be-
cause the acreage was large but also because yields per
acre were above aver-.:e.

ye carry-over July 1, 1940 expected to be
slightly smaller than ::car earlier

The total United States supply of rye for 1939-4L amounted to 62
million bushels, consisting of a carry-over at the begin in, of the year
of 23 million bushels and a production of 39 million bushels (table 20).
The apparent disappearance of rye in 1938-39 was about 41 million bushels -
in 1937-38 it was 39 million bushels.

With rye prices higher this year it is expected that less will be
fed, and as a result disappearance mny be less estimated at present at
39 million bushels. :orocovr, exports in 1939-40 are expected to be less
than 1 million bushels. Exports of rye July-December 1939 were only 86,000
bushels, but purchases by Finland in late January were reported to be about
400,000 bushels, with Finlond making further inquiry. On the basis of these
indications, the carry-over at the end of the mar-:ecting season will be about
the same as at the be-innin;.

The acre-.e of rye seeded for harvest in 1940 was estimated in December
at 5,640,000 acres, or 78.5 percent of the 7,187,000 acres seeded for harvest
in 1939. Th7se seAdir:g include the acrc. --c seeded for pasture, soil im-
provem-rr.t, etc., as well as acrce ; for harvest as grain. The condition of
rye on December 1, 1939 at 64 percent of normal was 12 condition points be-
low a year earlier and 15 points lower than the 10-year (1927-36) average.

Table 20.- Rye: Supply and distribution, United States, 1935-39


Year : Surp
be- : Stocks :
gin- :Commor-: Farm :
ning : cial :Jul 1: Total :
July :July 1 : : :
: 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bu. bu. bu.


1935 : 8,560 2,723 11,283 58,597
1936 :6,379 15,920 22,299 25,319
1937 : 1,106 4,480 5,886 49,830
1938 : 1,0C 8,699 9,699 55,564
1939 : 7,3,4 15,682 23,066 39,249
If Less than 500 bushels.


ly : Distribution
: : : : :Apparent
Produc-: In- : Total : Ex- : dis-
tion : ports:supply : ports: Stocks :appear-
: : : :: ance
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu.


2,266
3,943
1/
1/
1/


72,146
51,561
55,716
65,263
62,315


9
248
6,578
784
(soo)


22,299
5,886
9,699
23,066
(22,515)


49,83g
45,427
39,439
41,413
(39,000)


~


__


- 25 -






rs-4o 6 -

United States rye prices higher than ye:.r ar

Althoulrh supplies of rye in 1935-40 are almost .as large .as last year,
prices since July have been considerably hi,.her this year than year earlier.
This has been largely the rcs'ilt of the Etr.enrrt.h in '-he-t ,riccs, buit the
fact that Geimany took over Poli:i supplies, the likelihood t>ht there would
be no rye exports from the Soviet Union, and the r.lacin- of a.b.out 1.3 million
'ushels under lona in the United St'-tcs, we-e also irnort-i.t rice factors.
Average prices received by farner.r J1~.l 19 5 to *Janui-r.- 194C Lre shorn in
table 22 and weighted average prices of No. 2 rye at Minrneapoli3 July 1935
to Jzan-u.y 1940 in table 23.

United States -xrorts of rye smnll in last 10 years

During the 15 yea'r from the beginning of the World ?Ir until 1929,
net ex-orts of rye from the United Sttes aver:i-ed 27 million tushels. How-
ever, during the 10 :--crs bcri:-.in' in 1929, the United States had only very
small exports in 6 years and net imports in 4 :-ears. (International trade
in rye by ibnortant countries, '.-'':s 1921-29, 19'C0--34, and annual 1936-38,
are shown in table 25.) Tie greatly re@ducecd *-r-Ports from the United States
were the res-lt of incresed-d e:rorts from Polaj-d and the Soviet Union, and
reduced takings by importi-i countries. y-e ..:ports from the United States
for July-December 1939 were 86,000 bushels coma.'cd with 734,0C0 bu-.hols for
the s-me period in 1938 and 4 million bushels for the same 6 months in 1937
(table 24).

World rye prci:.ction in _13 sl.iihtly above 193S

i-e production in the 24 countries for which reports h'.-: been re-
ceived is now estimated at 971 million bush-l:. This is sli..1.tly above 1938
production in these countries, no w placed at Cr.5. million bush.: -.1 In 193S
production in the countries listed represented 91 percent of c.ztimatcd world
total production.







* 27 -


Table 21.- Rye:


Production in specified countries, 1936-39


Country


: 19356


: 1,000
: bushels


United States ...........:
Canada ........ ..........:

Total (2) .............

Europe:
Bulgaria ..............
Denmark ...............
Estonia .............
Finland ...............
Germany ...............:
Austria ...............:
Greece ......,.........:
Hungary ...............:
Italy .................:
Latvia ...............:
Lithuania .............:
Luxceburg .............:
Netherlands ...........:
lo rway ..... .... ..... .
Poland ................ :
Rumania ................ :
Spain ................:
Sweden ................:
Switzerland ...........:
Yugoslavia ............:


25,319
4.281


29.600


8, 1S
7,842
6,044
12,134
290,793
16,b10
1,654
28,114L
5,204
11,145
21,354
449
18,736
425
250,536
17,3 42
18,053
13,838
1,077
8,002


74o,o4o


Total (19) ..........:

Al- (ria ... ........
Ar-r tina .............:
T'. ,- .. .... ......

Total (24) ..........:


29
7,480
17,674


794,823


1,0CO
bushels

49,830
5.771'


55.601


9,387
9,889
8,327
16 ,Kg2
272,296
16,830
2,569
24,325
5,701
16,592
23,894
392
19,200
443
221,949
17,768
3/18,000
16,250
1,339
8,243


710.376


37
3,523
13,331


782,868


1,000
bushels

55,5G4
10.98g


1,000
bushels

39,249
15.307


54.556


7,397
11,165
7,403
14,507
1/381,874

2,439
31,677
5,428
14,909
24,555
507
21,634
433
285,556
20,361
13,661
15,933
1,447
\,941


44
10,S26
17,656


964,965


9,674
9,842
8,042
13,031
1/372,221

2,457
2 35,310
5,962
16,916
25,724
490
23,621
40o
/300,382
1S,682
17,212
14,S94
1,287
9,587


885.742


44
14,172
16,771


971,285


1 Includes Austria and the Sudetenland.
2/ New boundaries and, therefore, not strictly
years.
/ Estimated.


comparable with previous


1937


1938


1939


- ----~ ---~~-`


'-"


-~~-I---


- -- -


~ -- .-1~_


__


~--~-~~


- --- -------------









Table 22.- Average price per bushel of rye received by farmers,
United States, 1908-39
Year : : : : : : : :Crop
begin-: July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: Fay : June:year
ning 15 15 15 15 : 15 15 15 15 15 15 : 15 :aver
July : : : : : : : : : : :;age
: Ct. Ct. Ct. C. Ct. t.. t. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct

1908 : 74.8 73.5 75.4 73.9 7,.6 7L.5 73.6 74.4 76.2 78.0 60.0 81.4 72.|
1909 : 80.1 75.4 72.6 73.2 72.7 73.3 75.4 76.3 76.6 75.8 74.8 74.7 73.&

1910 : 74.5 7.? 77.1 72.2 71.6 72.4 73.2 72.5 73.C 75.6 76.8 77.4 72.9J
1911 : 7.2 7C.2 7P.3 81.4 83.2 83.0 83.6 84.2 84.6 .P4.8 85.4 84.8 80.1
1912 : .0.R 7,4.4 7C.- 6.4 67.6 65.0 66.4 66.C 63.C C2.6 C3.2 63.6 05.C.
1913 : 62.0 61.9 65.9 64.0 63.3 63.0 62.1 61.8 62.4 C3.0 63.6 63.8 61.011
191 : 62.0 66.? 77.2 79.3 83.3 88.4 95.4 103.0 102.9 101.2 100.0 95.9 82.S:
1915 : 91.4 87.2 83.6 83.7 8,..6 81.4 86.8 87.0 84.G 83.6 83.8 83.6 84.4
1916 : 83.4 91.6 101.3 109.7 11.7 120.3 121.0 124.8 1.8 1 8. 1'?9.8 173.6 180.0 112.4
1917 : 177.6 17C..0 165.8 1I.r'3 167., 168.2 172.6 187.9 213.0 229.1 204.- 178.8 173.4
1918 : 166.9 161.6 15C. 15 .E 1;:.1 151.2 145. 1536.3 139.0 1.50.6 149.0 1,1.2 149.0
1919 1
1919 : 144.2 144.1 1 .r 1,- .. 17.5 14.' 15. 149.8 150.6 169.6 183.5 186.4 1-5.9

1920 : 178.8 1;.7 1%5.3 152.2 13a.4 125.8 128.1 128.8 122.4 112.0 108.8 108.0 146.,
1921 : 101.r '.-0 39.2 81.6 72.2 '9.6 70.0 77.0 83.8 85.9 87.8 82.8 84.0
1922 : 74.0 Er.C 67.2 65.2 6C.2 70.7 71.7 71.0 70.1 70.8 69.2 62.2 63.9
1923 : 56.3 5E.3 57.2 5,.9 62.1 63.9 65.5 64.5 62.8 60.4 60.1 61.6 59.,
1924 : E>.; '.9 80.1 105.7 108.6 112.7 126.2 132.2 125.1 100.9 103.6 101.8 95..
1925 : 2,S 31. 74.1 73.1 86. 8 8.2 82.5 73.4 73.8 72.5 76.0 79.O
1926 : E,7 r8.l 81.3 82.4 83.0 82.4 33.6 88.4 86.4 85.2 90.1 94.9 83.Q
1227 : 1.2 .C.c 81.. 81.0 8,.0 87.8 88.0 89.5 96.0 99.8 111.5 106.8 83.5
1928 : 99.2 8..6 81.8 87.1 8C.3 87.2 87.9 91.5 91.4 63.C 79.1 75.7 83.61
1929 :85.3 91.8 89.2 89.9 85.5 88.4 85.7 73.3 63.4 68.7 63.6 60.7 85. '

1930 : 43.6 53.0 53.1 17. 11.0 *21.1 37.4 34.9 34.3 32.8 33.0 31.4 44.5:
1931 : 33.0 32.5 3..2 3:.' *. i 0. C. 27,7 3.0 33.4" 28.8 34.
1932 : 22.0 2 .3 2. 223 2..1 21.1 2' .7 21. 2.8 ?' .1 33.9 :3.5 28.11
1933 : 78.2 58.8 t6.4 52.7 .1 ,I. 5.0 5 .2 53.1 52.8 51.9 58.2 62.7
1934 : 61.8 73.9 7c.1 75.', 71.. 7 71 ..1 C .5 G T. 62.C 53.7 71.8
1935 : 36.0 ,5.5 36 4~2.1 40.i 4r.. 41.1 -14.4 42?. 4C. 40.6 43.8 39.5
1936 : C1.1 75.1 79.5 SC 31.5 .0 97.9 9p.9 0 95.8 .? 96.0 85.3 80.9
1937 : 1. 7".C 6.I C7.8 60.8 59.2 34.1 63.4 5c.7 72.2 49.8 46.0 68.5
1938 : 1.1 L2. 52.0 32.9 32.1 32. 3,1.7 33.9 32.9 32.C z 6.4 39.1 33.8
1939 : 34.2 44-.0 45.1 4 .6 6 2.3 56.7 1/40.8

Compiled from reports of the Agricultural Marketi.i Service based on returns from
special price reporters. Monthly prices, by States, weighted by production to obtain a
price for the United States; average for the year obtained by weighting State price
averages for the crop marketir.g season.

l/ Preliminary.


WS-40


- 28 -







- 29 -


Table 23.- Rye, No. 2: Weighted average price per bbushel of reported cash
sales, Minneapolis, by months, 1935-36 to 1939-40 1/
:
Crop -year July : Aug. Sept. Oct. : Nov. Dec.
: CT't C'ent Cents Ce.Ats CefAts Cents


........: -48g. 45.0 46.5:
........: 75-0 82.5 S6.7
.......: 85 .2 77,.3 77.9
.........: 4 .4 o.8 4.0.5
.... : 43.1 41.7 52.7


51.9 49 .6 49.o
85.1 91.6 109.9
74.0 68.5 69.8
41.5 4o.2 42.9
52.1 51.0 66.9


:Wtd.
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June
_* ____ _v.___________ ___________a
: Cents Cents Cents .Cents Cents Cents Cents

1935-36 ........: 53-5 56.9 52.1 49.7 51.7 58.2 50.2
1936-37 ........: 113.2 110.6 109.0 112.4 108l 9 99-5 97.2
1937-38 *.......: 75.9 74.4 66.9 61.0 58.0 55.5 73.8
1938-39 ........: 46.1 45.2 43.1 43.1 50.9 50o. 43.9
1939-40 ........: 70.3
CoTiled from ir.ner.olis Daily Mar.ket Record. Averz ge of daily prices weighted
by car-lot sales.
If Figures beginning with 1915 in The Theat Situation, June 1937, page 18.

Table 24.- Rye, grci;i: United States exports, by countries, 6-month periods,
July-Lecember 1937 to date


Country to
which exported


: 1937-38 1938-39 : 1939
: July- : Jan.- : Fiscal : July- : Jan.- : Fiscal : July-
: Dec. : June : year : Dec.- : June : year : Dec.
: us ~ Bushuels Bs Bushels Bushels Bushels Bushels Bushels
: (56 l.) (56 lb.) (56 l.) (56 lb.) (56 lb.)(56 lb.) (56 lb.)


Belgium .........: 544,334 124,844 669,178 2C1,654
Denmark .........: 514,617 284,948 799,565 136,4-89
Germany ........: 189,070 41,47 230,517 0
Netherlands .....: 251,146 37,527 288,673 77,825
Norway ..........: 117,311 905,817 1,053,128 180,482
Other Europe ....: 1!3,709 52,5 1 196 ,20 3001


0
0
0
0
0
22


201,654 0
136,489 81,273
o o
77,825 0
180,482
S.52 2/4,000


Total Europe ....1,790,187 1,447,154 3,237,341 596,48o 22 596,502 85,273
Canada ..........:2,223,311 1,114,227 3,337,53- 167,220 0 187,220 761
Mexico ..........: 1, 53 2,043 3,096 2 0 2 100
Other countries .: 152 139_ 291 50 3/ 222 272 4/ 118
Total ...... 4,n01,703 2,563,563 6,578,266 783,752 244 783,996 86,252
Compiled from official records of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.
/ Poland. 2/ Iceland. z/ Nicaragua 179 bushels; Panama 27 bushels.
"/ Nifr.rnia 90 bushels.


1935-36
1936-37
1937-38
1938-39
1933-40







"s-40 30 -

Table 25.- International tradle in rye, including flour, by important
countries, averages 1925-26 to 129-330, 1930-31 to 1931-35, annual
19 36-'


: _____ ._ .Ye.Y-..r _boerinning July_
:Av.125-26 t : Av.190LO-31 to: 136 1lq7 : 197 I/
Country __ __ :_ _~ _____- __ :.
: t et et : : t : ITet : I:et : 1 t : et : et -: eet
ex- im- : eo- : iri- ex- : im- : ex- : im- : ex : im-
:~crt : ort s sports :port :ports::ports:ports: norts:ports:ports
r: Iil. I.il il. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
Principa-l e- : Lu. bu. bu. ,,u. 1u. bu. bu bu. bu. bu.


porting co:-n-
tries
United Sttes :Pt
Soviet Russia
Hungary
Canadia
Argent ina
Poland.
Germany 2/

Principal in-
oorting coun- :
tries
Denmark
Io rway
Finland
Austria 2/
Uetherlarnds
Cz echo sloval:i -/:
Lat vii a
Sweden
Estonia
Belgium


14.6
7.

r.2


1.7


7.7
7.0
6.2
4.5
4.0

3.2
2.5
2.2
1.6


17. :,
S.4T
6.1
16.4


4.4


3.5


9.S
5.4
2.2
5.4
r
1.3

0.1

5.3


' .1


4.2
4.9
4.1
6.3
15.6









1.1.
0.1
0.7


3.7 6.6
12.8
3.0
0.6
0.2
0.5
3.9


6.9
5.5
2.6
6.5


0.9

0.0


0.3
c.4
2.8


0.g

0.7
1.1
3.0
17.6


5.7


4.C
4.5
I. 3


6.1

O.1
0.3
3.4


3.3
5.0
0.6

0.9
1.9


0.2
0.2
12.2


bCmpiled from official sources.

1 Preliminary.
2/ Bginr..ir.: April 193g trade between Gerlany and Austria no longer reported as
foreign tra.' in the German statistics. The same applies to trade between Germany
and Sudeter.1 nd (Czechoslovokia) for the period September-December 1938.


4.6




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