Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00048

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agriculturaral Economics
Washington

WS-39 December 26, 1939


THE WHEAT SITUATI 0 N
Including Rye


Summary

Wheat production prospects in the United States for 1940 now indicate

that the crop may turn out to be smaller than domestic requirements for the

19U3-41 marketing season. If exports for the remainder of the present season

are smill, the carry-over on July 1, 1940 probably will be larger than the

carry-over on July 1, 1939, but not enough larger to fully offset the probable

reduction in the crop below domestic requirements for next year. The carry-

over on July 1, 1941 probably will be over 2NC million bushels. On July 1,

19q it was 254 million bushels.

Winter wh-.at production of 399 million bushels was indicated December 21

by the official cro-o report as of December 1. Spring wheat acreage may be

increased about 10 percent, if-present indications are borne out, and this

acreage with a.nver-...e -ields would result in a crop of about 200 million

bushels. These totals for the winter and spring crops would give a combined

harvest about 60 million bushels smaller than the 660 million bushels dis-

apnearance forecast for 1940-41.



: The 1940 Agricultural Outlook Ch-rt Book
for 'h.es3t and R;,'e is now available to readers of
: The Wheat Situation. Any reader who wants a copy
: may obtain it upon request to the Division of
Economic Information, Buresu of. Agricultural
Econcmics, Washington, D. C.







WS-38 2 -

World wheat supplies I/ for the year egir.nning July 1, 1939 are new

indicated to be about 2z5 million bushels more than for the preceding year.

World stocks of old wheat on July 1, estimated at about 1,11r million bushels,

were bou't 59C million bushels more then a year earlier. On the othLr hand,

world wheat production is now estir .-t.I at 4,252 million bushels, -.-hich is

about 375 million bu -.=Is below the record production of 1938. The present

world production estiF..te for 1339 is 35 million bushels less than the esti-

mate of a month ago, lar-:ly as the result of the reduction in pro.'eccts in

Argentina. No marked ch-'-,:e in the wheat acruc.)':,. for the 1940 crop in Europe

is expected.

Vh7e:Lt prices in domestic and foreign markets advanced since late

'Lovember mainly as the result of la-e-.-scale -xrort sales of Canadian wheat,

reduced crop prospects in Argentina, and continued troor crop prospects for

winter wheat in the United States. Prices in the United States continue high

compared with the usual relationship to prices in other countries chiefly as

the result of the Pgricultural orogrpm, the large quantities being held by

farmers, and poor prospects for next years crp.

Production of rye in 1979 in the 23 countries for which rerr.rts are

available totaled 954 million bushels. This is 2 percent less than the rro-

duction reported in these countries in 1938, when their production !ws almost

92 percent of the estimated world total. The 193g rye crop in the United

States was revised to 39,249,O"O bushels on December 19, or slightly below

the 4O, 7,7h,COO bushels indicated in August.


I/ All references -o world acrei-.., supplies, production, and stocks in
this report exclude the U.S.S.R. and China, except where not-d.








-3-


The acreage of r:,'e seeded in the fall of 1939 is estimated at 5.6

million acres or 7 T.5 percent of the 7.2 million acres seeded a year ago.

The condition of rye on December 1, 1939 at 64 percent of normal is 12

condition -oints below la>it year and 15 points lower th-n the 10-year

(1927-36) aver;. The low condition and yield prospect reflects the ex-

treme shortage of moistIre over much of the rye-producing territory.

T2E3 ;3RLLJ 1,?.T SITUATION 2/

,K'-RT~U-T.D.- Totnl world supplies of wheat increased
sharr y from 1924 to 133, largely as a result of in-
creased acrecge. From 19Y4 to 193( world sui)plies de-
clined, follori:t,. successive years of small yields and
increased world -Imn(-.d Sunrlies incre-, 3 slir-tly in
1937. With th:.L return of more nor;el yields on the large
acr. .':, ormlis in 1937 were again large the, largest
on record uT to th"t time.

Tot v-orld shirmonts of wh,:at ov 3rac'd 751 million
bushelj for the -7oriod 1923-37, reached a oeank of 913
million bihbeis in the year bcrinnir.n July 1928, and then
declined sharlly, largely as a result of the mossures taken
by imnrorting countries to reduce th. use of foreign wheat.
For the yer r beginning July 1, 1938, world shipments were
59c8 million bushels.

-.orld '.,heat vric- declined in the rorio. 1924-33
w, ith the increase in world surpliae. The sh:orn decline
in prices cft :r 1929 wvas cmuscd l ercely by the general
decline in industry. 1 activity .nd connodity prices. From
th'e "prin of 1937 to the surrjicr of 19'I7, world v heat
prices moved rte: dily up-,'ar'd, rcfl,;ctin.g r. world-wide re-
cov**ry in commodity price levels, currency depreciation,
amd redi.ca -oro luction. The ,'orld trice for the 197 crop
remained practically unch'-r., : from that of a yenr earlier.
Ir 1938 v'orlL prices as.in declined sharply as .a result of
th, record world production and we ,ness of demand.

-*rid 1- vwhoat sunplies nowi estimated _at 255-. million
bqsh-j.s above 933 sarlics

;7norld wheat surTnliez 2/ for the year beginning July 1, 1939 are now
indicated to be acout 2T5 million bushels more thnn for the preci.linr year.

2/ All referenci.s to vorld ,creaLe, sunpli. s, nrouction, an' stocks in this
report exclude the U.S.S.R. and Cl-ine,, uxc<.nt '-hcrr noted.






WS-3s 4 -

World stock 2! of old wheat on July 1, estimated at about 1,1-1) million
:turbhs, ar "'.-ut 590 million ':,h .Is more than a y.nar earlier. On the
other hnnrA world whet production 2/ is cnw estima--t at 4,252 million
r-'h..:ls, which is rlout 335 million bushelc oolo':: Troduction in 1938.

The present estirate of world c-c action in 1939 is 35 million bushels
below the similar ..stim-.te m''e in inov br. The reduction !ws cau ::. by
the deterioration of th cror in the S-uthern Hmisnhere, especially in
Arrt.-tina, whore the cror is !'ow oflicirlly estim'.t*-d rt 147 million bushels.
This contrasts with con:iitions a mouth c.go ::non a forecast of 2Y- million
bushels for A.-- .t :, ?i:cmd .v,.rranted. ThLe current estimate is, with theo
exce-ution of thrfc 'or 1 '35h ~:hn --'ro-uction wn.s 141 million bushels, thr
smnllEst since 1)1 In tuhe Northern .r:mi'-h ro, on the other hn-i, the csti-
mater, now total ..'t 20 million I1 ..,cl above those of a month ago, largp.ly
as the r6esiit of 'n upwtrd r..viaion of arbor't 16 million bushAls for the
United States. --*r-,ocan prcLUction estimates no%' total a-bout 4 million
bushels more than they did a month a.o.

Table 1.- Whoat: Production, in s-Eclfied countries, 19 6-39


Country 196 i- 19 : 1939
: ,000 1,COO 1,000 1, 0


iorthnern He ispher_ : bushe ls
North America: :
United Stats ................ 626,766
Canada ....... .......... : 21'., 218
co ....................1 581
T tal (3) ..... .......... : '
Europu: :
EIr(Ipe excl. Danibo :
Basin 2/ (26) ...........: 1,06,C26
Danube Easin (4) ..........: 3, P79
Total (30) ....... .......: ,1
North Africa (4) .. ........: 95,7' 1
Asia (6) ...... ..... : 56 6
Total 43 countries .......: 3,0V297
Estimated Northern
Hemisphere total, ex-
cl', i.-- Snvi .t Russia :
and China / ............ ... : ,1C7,C0
SoutherA ut is.ther. r
Art entin.i ........ ...........:.. 249,193
Austr.alia .. .... ........... ....: 1,390
Union of South i-frica .......: 16, 07
Estir.-at<.d vorl tot rs,
exclr.-ir." Soviet Eu.ssic :
and Ch"in / .... ....... : 3, 5"79 ,"


bushes s


875,676
g180,210
10,@
1,C' ,473


1,177,1x 3
311,463

117,015
579,699
....3,30^-,gl


931,702
3-0,010
13,1425



1,302,739
466,212
1 ,' 'q '
118,@11
638,905
L 11,003


754.971

1/ 1 .,W0
l,?24,93_


l,.?62,n1l

1 ,--V :3L
52, r?
--- _-,,-' 7
_.... t- 44


3,4(-,0ooo 4,01,C -, J Ki -


184,801
187,15
10,157


376,201
1 4,426
1..... 1 1
li ,,4042


1 6,973


3,52,o000o 4,59),onc


Com,-iled fro". offi:il 1 t. / .Tprroximation. 2/ Excludes Sovitt R.ussia.
3/ Includes, besi: es country. lit i, tir-,.tcs for at-nr.'.cin. coun-
tries for which re iorts "'r. rot v il'.bl' .

2/ All r.:fo.rcn,.s to --orld -cr- *:'f, -uro-nli,, reduction, and. stocks in this
reo rt exclude the U.S.S.R. *ni Chirn:, xYcent here noted.


rz'shols b i:hcls







WS -38


No marked change in Furopean acrr.age
in prospect for lC40

No marked change in the wheat acreage for the 1940 crop in Europe is
pxpectsd. Fall seedings over much of Europe were held up considerably because
of excessive moisture. As a result it is now believed that the winter wheat
acreage in western Euroe will bo smaller than was planned. It is to be ex-
pected, however, that an effort will be made to offset this decrease by in-
creased spring wheat seeding 3.

A reduction is reported in the acre-age planted in Rumania compared with
that of last year. In Funsr,"' excessive rain was detrimental to planting but
was beneficial for the '-'evlo-enient of early sown grain. In other parts of the
Darube Basin and in Soviet Russia conditions are reported to be generally
satisfactory. In Spain the weather was too wet to favor seeding and the area
seeded is not expected to reach the total planned. A slight acreage increase
is expected in Italy, but for a few sections unsatisfactory conditions are re-
ported.

In India seeding will toon be completed, and little change in acreage
is indicated. Seuriing took place under unfavorable conditions, as there was
a serious lack of moisture.

Exportable surpluses in northern HemisDhere alone
in excess of 19 9-40 world export prospects

The reduction in the wheat crop in Argertina does not affect the gener-
al situation very nuch because the exportable supplies in Northern Hemisphere
countries alone are more than enough to take care of world trade for the re-
mainder of this season. Exportable supplies (July 1 stocks plus production
less 12-month domestic disappearance less "minimum normal" carry-over stocks)
for the current season in Canada are about 425 million bushels, and in the
Danubian countries about 100 million bushels. Exports from the United States
now appear likely to approximate 35 million bushels. These three items alone
total. 560 million bushels, without counting exports frorr North Africa, India,
Turkey and the U.S.S.R., and would bo more than enough to take care of the
world imports forecast a month ago by the Bureau at about 535 million bushels.
On the basis of the reduced estimate for Argentina, exportable supplies in
that country for the yoar beginning *July 1,-1939 would be about 185 million
bushels. Those for Australia are estimated at about 135 million bushels.

Exports of wheat, including flour made wholly of United States whea.t,
frcm the United States from July 1 through December 16 are estimated at about
28 million bushels. During the same period last year exports were 40 million
bushels. Reduced exports this year are largely the result of the poor crop
prospects, but the folle-.irg arc also contributing factors: (1) United
Kingdom preference for what from Australia, Canada, and Argentina, because
these countries accept pound sterling exchange; (2) the desire of the United
Kingdom to conserve dollar exchange by'limiting purchases in the United States
as far as possible to nonagricultural products not readily obtainable


- 5 -







iWS-38


elsewhere; (3) the ability of France to secure about all of its imports of
wheat from Ycrth Africa, and of Germany and Italy from countries to the east;
and (4) some reduction of United States exports to neutral countries because
of the uncertainties of shipping.

The surplus available for export from principal surplus-producing
co-untries on December 1 is shown in table 7, and current trade statistics with
comparisons in tables 8 to 11.

THE DOMESTIC V'.T.AT SITUATIXT

BACKG.lOUND.- The carry-over of old wheat in the United States aver-
aged about 220 million bushels in the 10-year period 1929-38. In
1933 stocks reached a record neak of about 360 million bushels,
The domestic disar'-,earance during the 10 years, 1929-38, averaged
about 685 million bushels.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that of
1937 were unusually high in relation to world prices, as the re-
sult of small crops in the United States. During the year b-gin-
ring July 1936, both world and domestic prices advance sharply as
a result of increased demand and small slupilies. Prices received
by producers for the 1936-37 season averaged 103 cents per bushel;
for the 1937-38 season, 96 cents; and for the 1938-39 season, 55
cents. Prices were lower in 1938-39 larrcely as the result of the
large world wheat supplies and reduced world demand.

United States 1939 production estimate revised
upward by 2 percent

Production of all wheat in 1939 is estimated at 754,971,000 bushels, or
2 percent more than the preliminary estimate made in October. This year's
crop is about 19 percent smaller than the large 1938 crop of 931,702,000
bushels but is slightly larger than the 10-year (1928-37) average production
of 752,952,000 bushels. The harvested acreage of all wheat was 53,696,000
acres compared with 69,869,000 acres harvested in 1938 and the 10-ycar aver-
age of 55,804,000 acres. Practically all States harvested smaller acreages of
wheat than in 1938. Secdings were motorially reduced from the immediately
preceding years because of lowor prices for the 1938 crop and the smaller
allotments established by the Agricultural Adjustment Admini:tr-tion for the
1939 crop. This year's yield was 14.1 bushels per harvested acr.-
of all wheat, compared with 13.3 bushels in 193 and the 10-year average of
13.4 bushels.

Winter wheat production in 1939 was 563,431,000 bushels compared with
688,133,000 bushels in 1938 and the 10-year (1928-37) average of 560,160,000
bushels. The harvested acreage in 1.3q was 37,802,000 acres, or 24 percent
below the acrrea'e harvested-in 1938 and slightly less than the average
harvested acreage of 38,160,000 acres. Winter wheat for harvest in 1939 was
seeded on 46,364,000 acres, compared with the 10-year average seeded acreage
of 46,996,000 acres. The abandonment of acreage in 1939 was about average for









the country as a whole, amounting to 18.5 percent compared with 11.9 percent
in 1938 and the 10-year average of 187,. The estimate of acreage abandoned
includes an allowance for acreaFe seeded to winter wheat and later diverted to
other uses to meet acreage allotments. The yield per harvested acre is 14.9
bushels compared with 13.8 bushels last yc:" and the average of 14.5 bushels.
Yields per harvested acre in 1939 wVere mostly above average in the soft red
winter wheat area and in the 'Northwest.* Below-average yields were secured in
the Central Great Plains area.

For 1939, production of all spring wheat is estimated at 191,540,000
bushels, or slightly less than an average crop. Production in 1938 was
243,569,000 bushels and the 10-year average, 192,792,000 bushels. The 21 per-
cent reduction from last year was due to reduced acreage since the average
yield per harvested acro was approximately the same in both years.

Durum wheat production in 1939 accounted for 34,360,000 bushels of the
all-spring wheat production. This compares with a production of 40,697,000
bushels in 1938 and the average of 35,076,000 bushels. The estimated yield
per harvested acre in 1S39 was 11.2 bushels per acre., compared with 11.4
bushels in 1938 and the 10-year average of 9.4 bushels. The acreage of durum
wheat harvested in 1939 was 3,006,000 acres, or 16 percent loss than the
3,569,000 acres harvested in 1938 and 10 percent below the 10-year average
acreage of 3,355,000 acres. Of the total of 3,220,000 seeded in 1939, 10.7
percent was abandoned. This compares with 10.5 percent last year and the 10-
year average' of 19.7.

Production of spring wh at other than durum in 1939 is estimated at
157,180,000 bushels. This is about equal to the average of 157,716,000
bushels but about 23 percent less than the 202,872,000 bushel crop produced in
1938. An area of 14,312,000 acros was seeded to spring wheat other thmn durum
in 1939 compared vith 19,139,000 acres in 1938. However, the abandonment of
10.4 percent was loss than the 13.7 percent of last year and much below the
average of 21.6 percent which includes some bad rust ycars. The 1939 acreage
of other spring hoat harvested was 12,828,000 compared with 16,514,000 acres
last year, and the average of 14,290,000 acres. The yield of 12.3 bushels per
harvested ccro was equal to that-of 1938 but was well above the average of
10.9.

United States total :.h;:.t production in 1940 may be small
but prospective July 194? cc.rry-over is moderately largo

Production in 1940 may be about 600 million bushels, and with a pros-
pcctive cOrr:,-over of about 300 million bushels July 1, 1940, supplies in 1940-
41 may be about 240 million bushels in excess of probable domestic requirements
of about 660 million bushols. The moderately largo carry-over stocks on hand
last July, accordingly, may not be materially reduced bythe close of the
1940-41 marketing year.

A winter wheat acrcr.gc of 45.0 million acres was indicated December 21
by the official crop report. The seeded acrongo is 2.9 percent less than the
46.4 million acres seeded a year e.rlicr, end 4 percent less than the 10-yoar


WS-38


- 7 -






WS-38


(1927-36) average of 47.0 million acres. The condition of winter wheat on
December 1 was 55 percent, compared with 72 percent a year ago, and the aver-
age December 1 condition of 80 percent. This is the lowest December condition
ever reported; the previous record low condition was 69 percent in 1932. On
the basis of the past relationship between December 1 condition and yield per
seeded acre, with some allowance for the Drobable effect of weather conditions
during the past summer and fall, the indicated production of winter wheat in
1940 is about 399 million bushels. An abandonment of about one-third of the
seeded acreage may be expected, judging from the relationship between
December 1 condition and fall weather factors to abandonment in previous
years.

Seedings were below last year in the greater portion of the Great
Plains States, and in the central soft red winter wheat area. But there were
increased seedings in the States surrounding this area. In Texas, Oklahoma,
Washington and Oregon seeding is still in progress, with indications of con-
siderable shift to spring sown wheat in the latter two States on acreage
normally intended for winter wheat. Fall seedings were delayed, and to some
extent suspended because of shortage of moisture which is acuto beyond
precedent. moreover, a considerable portion of the acreage scoded in the
Great Plains area and farther west was seeded in such dry soil that germina-
tion and rooting has been seriously impaired. In ten important winter wheat
States of the Groat Plains, the Southwest and the Pacific Yorth-.rcst precipita-
tion during the period July 1 to December 1 was only slightly more than half
of normal for the area as a whole. This year the lowest Dccr.bcr I condition
was in the Great Plains States, and in Oregon and Washington, in all of which
the condition was loss than 60 percent. The December 1 condition was some-
what below average in nearly all the East Yorth Central and Atlantic States,
but in that area the final yield outcome is less dependent on fall moisture
than in the States farther west.

Some increase in spring wheat acreage is expected. The 1940 acreage
allotment for the spring ':h .t States is about 10 porcont more than the allot-
ment for 1939. In the past, most farmers in those States have cooperated in
the allotment program. Non-cooporators may make some small further increases.
With a high defrc-ee of compliance anticipated in the spring what States, it
appears roasona.ble to expect about a lC-parc:lnt increase in spring v.'hoat seed-
ings, or an acreage of about 20 million acres. Such an acrnge o :ith average
yields of 10 bushels npr seeded acre would produce r. crop of about 200 million
bushels. Until recently moisture in the Unrthorn Plain Stcats has boon below
aver-,F:, but rain and snow have now relieved the dry conditions. If the winter
wheat crop should turn out to be 399 million bushels, ard the spring crop 200
million bushels, the crop would total about 60 million bushels less than the
estimated domestic disappearance of about 660 million bushels in 1940-41.
Because of the moderately largo carry-over of about 300 million bushels in
prospect for July 1, 1940, the carry-ov.er July 1, 1941 may still b. over 200
million bushels. Domestic disappearance is expected to be smaller than in
1939-40 because of the probability of reduced v.-hc.t feeding, resulting from
prosp,'ctive wheat prices being high relative to food-grain prices.

The estimated supply and distribution, total and by classes, for 1939-
40 is shown in table 2, section A, prospective figures for 1940-41 in section
B, and carry-ovcr stocks for comn-arison in section C.


- 8 -






WS-30


Table 2.- Wheat supplies and distribution by classes,
continental United States: estimated for 1939-40-
and projected for 1940-41


: Hard
: Red
: Winter
buil.
: bu.


Soft : Hard :
Red : Red :


: Winter
Mil.
bu.


A.Year beinnlh July 1,
1939


Carry-over July '1, 1939
(old wheat) .. .
Production .
Total supply .
Exports and shipments .
Domestic disappearance ..

B. Year begti'.nirg J .y 1, -
'190
Carrjy-ver July 1, 1940 ,
(old wheat)
Production. .
Tctal supply .
Shipments to territories .
Domestic disappearance .
Available for carry-rver.
and expert, July 1, 1941]

C. July stocks, co. .pa.risc
Average, 1929-3 ..
Average, 1934-38 1/ .. .
Smallest in recent years
'(1937) (3 1/ .
Largest (1933) / .


114
4O27
421


30
203
233


73
130
203


. I
. 535
. 533


254
755
1,009


: i 2 --- 15 35
: 26o 200 115 7 25 70 670



143 31 9S8 28 14 304

: 193 16g 122 32 85 600
336 199 210 '0 99 904
1 --- --- --- 2 3
250' -170 :130 30. g0 660

: 85 29 80 .30. 17 241


S.


79
37


161
69

37
201


317
16o

83
378


1/ Contains some new wheat~prior


I/ Contains some new wheat-prior
average.

Wheat prices advance sharply.


to 1937, probably 15-20 million bushels on the


Wheat prices in domestic markets advanced along with prices in markets
in other cs.ntries, largely as the result of large-scale export sales of
Canadian wheet, reduced crop prospects in Argentina, and continued poor pros-
pects for winter wheat in the United States. No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kansas
City averaged 98 cents for the week ended Decomber 16, which was 12 cents higher
than for the week ended NWvembcr 25 (table 3). This was slightly more than the
advance in Canada and Argentina. Deccmb.:r closing wheat prices at Winnipeg
averaged 72 cents for the week cnded December 16 cr 11 cents higher than for the
week ended November 25; and February closing wheat prices at Buenos Aires averaged


Item


_ Spring :
Mil..
bu.


Dar


Iil.
bu.


White :


Mil.
bu.


Total


Mil.
bu.


ii iii







WS-38


- 10 -


68 cents for the week ended December 16, which was also 11 cents higher than
for the week ended November 25 (table 4). Wheat prices have declined somewhat
since December 18, when prices were the highest since October 1937.

Wheat prices in the United States continued high compared with the usual
relationship to prices in other countries (table 5). The agricultural program,
the large quantity if wheat being hold by farmers, and poor prospects for next
year's crop are largely responsible for this change in relationship.

The withholding of wheat from market this year has been an important
market factor. Withholding has been encouraged by anticipation of higher prices
as a result of the w-r, by the governmental loan program, end the poor outlook
for winter wheat. The quantity of wncA.t under government loan on December 18
totaled approximately lo5 million bushels, of which about 32 million bushels
were stored on farms rand 133 million bushels in country and terminal warehouses.

Table 3.- Weignted avern.ge cash pricj of wheat, specified
markets and dat.:s, 1938 a*nd 1939

:All cl.isss: Nn. 2 : No. 1 :Nn. 2 Hard : No. 2 :Western
Month :and grades :Hard Winter:Dk.N.Spring:Armber Durum:Rcd Winter: White/
er date :six markIetc:Kansas City:Minneapolis:Minneapolis: St. Louis:Seattle
:193S :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :19 :1938 :1939:1938 :1939
Ct. Ct. : Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. : Ct. Ct. : Ct. Ct.: Ct. Ct.
Month- : : : : : :
Sept. :68.3 90.0 :65.7 8.9 :76.2 92.5 :68.9 94.9 :67.1 83.4:62.7 81.0
Oct. :65.3 85.6 :64.7 82.7 :73.3 83.2 :65.5 90.1 :68.5 87.5:63.2 80.0
Nov. :64.9 87.8 :63.3 35-8 :73.1 90.9 :64.9 89.1 :65.8 92.0:63.3 80.0
Week ended- : : : : :
Nov. 4 :64.4 38.1 :63.7 35.3 :71.1 90.8 :62.7 91.9 :66.1 92.3:63.0 80.9
11 :64.g 89.1 :o3.5 36. :72.9 92.1 :651 90.6 :66.0 93.0:63.3 80.7
18 :65.2 87.3 :64.2 5.6 :73.2 89.8 :64.6 83. :'.6.7 91.1:63.4 80.0
25 :65.0 86.8 :63.3 5.' :73.3 90.0 :65.8 86.2 :65.0 91.2:63.4 79.4

Dec. 2 :65.9 89.3 :64.9 86.3 :74.3 93.0 :67.9 92.3 :66.5 93.8:63.9 79.2
9 :68.2 95.2 :66.9 93.1 :77.2 97.5 :69.7 99.4 :69.0 97.2:63.8 81.8
16 :68.3 96.9 :66.3 97.7 :77.6 101.4 :70.4 102.1 :69.8 104.9:6 .3 ---

High 2/ :63.3 9'.9 :66.9 97.7 :77.6 101.4 :70.4 1C2.1 :69.8 104.9:64.3 81.8
Low / :64.4 83.6 :63.3 81-5 :71.1 85.9 :62.7 25.5 :65.0 5.S:62.2 77.4

1I Weekly average of daily cash quctations, basis No. 1 sn.cked.
2 October 7 to December 16, 1939, and corresponding dates for 1938.








Table 4.- Avrage closir:- price of December wheat futures, specified
markets and dates, 1938 and 1939
: Winnipeg :Liverpcol: uenos : Kansas : Minne-
Feriod : / 1 : Aires : : City : apolis
: _]93)L:1939:1938:1939: 1938 : 1939 :1938: 1939938:1939:1938:1939
Month : Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. *Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.
Sept. : 61.8 69.0 71.4 -- -- -- 64.5 84.4 60.9 79.6 6.5 85.2
Oct. : 59.2 64.2 66.7 -- 65.0 84.0 61.1 78.9 66.3 82.7
Nov. : 57.9 62.1 62.5 -- 63.3 88.1 59.4 82.3 66.1 85.1
Week :
ended-
IHov. 4: 57.3 62.8 62.0 -- 2/50.6 3/54.5 64.0 P6.8 59.9 81.6 65.6 85.6
11: 57.4 62.4 62.0 -- 2/53.8 /54.8 64.0 87.9 59.8 82.7 66.4 85.8
18: 58.9 61.9 63.0 -- 55.2 3/55.1 64.0 87.6 59.7 81.9 66.8 84.3
25: 57.9 61.0 62.7 -- 52.5 3/56.4 62.2 88.4 58.6 82.2 65.9 84.4
Dec. 2: 59.0 6L.1 63.5 51.0 V/59.6 62.4 90.7 59.7 84.0 66.8 87.4
9: 60.4 69.2 66.1 -- 51.3 1/62.8 64.4 96.6 62.'0 89.5 68.8 93.2
16: 60.0 71.7 65.8 -- 49.1 2/67.7 64.0 101.6 61.8 95.6 68.8 98.3
High /: 60.4 71.7 68.2 -- 5/53. 3/67.7 65.5 101.6 62.0 95.6 68.8 98.3
Low : 57.3 61.0 62.0 2/49.1 3/53.2 62.2 81.9 58.6 77.2 65.6 81.3
1/ Conversions at noon buying rate of e:..change. 2/ 'ov-ember futures.
3/ Feb. futures. 4/ Oct. 7 to Dec. 16, 1939, and corresponding dates 1938.
5/ Nov. and Dec. futures.

Table 5.- Spreads between domestic wheat prices and prices at
!Tinnipeg and Liverpool, specified periods, 1937-39
: Deceh.ber futures per burhl__ :Cash v.heat per bushel
Chic ao : Kansas City : -.T. 2 Hard 'Jinter
Period : related to : related to :(Kansas City) related to
: : : : : No. 3 Parcels
: Winnipeg :Liverpool: Winnipeg:Liverpool: Manitoba P(,.rcl
S: nipe) (Li-verpool)
.(Winnipeg):
September: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
1937 17.3 23 0 22.5 28.8 1l.6 25.5
1938 : 2.8 6.8 0.9 10.5 7.9 13.3
1939 : 15.4 -- 10.6 -- 23.2 --
October
1937 20.0 28.7 23.0 31.7 11.4 31.2
1938 : 5.8 1.7 1.9 5.6 10.0 8.7
1939 : 19.8 -- 1I.7 -- 23.4 --
71ove: 'ber
1937 : 21.6 2,.8 24.0- 32.2 16.4 41.0
1938 : 5.4 0.8 1.5 3.1 11.6 3.2
1939 : 26.0 20.2 -- .26.5 --
.Teek ended :
December 16:
1937 : 30.6 19.9 33.8 23.1 20.8 --
1938 : 4.0 1.8 1.8 4.0 14.6 --
1939 : 29.9 -- 23.9 -- 32.1 --
Linus sian before figure denotes Chicago or Kars..s City below Winnipeg or
Liverpool.


WS-38


- 11 -







- 12 -


Table 6.- Supply ant' dis,'cre'rance of wheat in the United States,
July-SeTptember, 1937 ana 197.l *

Item '; i37 : 1938 : 1939
: Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels
Supplies -
Stocks, July 1 .................. 83.1 153.5 25.4.3
Production ....... ...... .. ......: 75.7 930.8 739.4
Less net exports, July-S3atember ..: *13.O *28.0_ *193
Total .................. ...... 8 10597
Stocks, October 1 :
On farms ....................... .: 32..6 401.4 332.2
Commercial ......................: 141.5 139.3 162.0
Interior mills and elevators ....: 152.6 174.4 162.6
Merchant mills and elevators 1/ : 138.1 130.2 137.3
Total ......................: q7F 6 3. 3_ 79'.1
Disappearanrce 2/ ..................: 187.0 211.0 1p0.3

1/ Bureau of Census raised to represent all merchant mills; includes "stor-d
for others by merchant mills." 2/ Balancin7 item.
* Table 6, The Whe.'at Situation for November 25, 1939 corrected. In original
table net exports were addud instead of subtractt.

Table 7.- Wheat surplus for export or cTrry-over in t ree exporting
countries, United Kingdom nort stocks and stocks afloat,
December 1, 1936-39 1/

Position : 1936 : 1937 1938 1939
Cnn .da : Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mi1 bu.
In Canada ...................: 120 71 180 375
In the United Status ........: 24 5 8 34

Argentina .... .............. : 10 4 12 70
Australia .... ................ : g 9 13 2/
Total ... ............... : 6b2 89 213

United Kingdon nort stock" .... 7 11 19 2/

Stocks afloat to:
United Kin::dom ..............: 19 11 15 2/
Continent .................. : 1l 13 11 2/
0rder. .. ..................... : 6 10 5 2/
Total ...................: 46 45 50

Grand total .............: 2_ 134 263
l/ Carry-over r.t the beginning of the year (Canada, July .,1; Arrentinn,
January 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production, minus
domestic utilization for the y-".r mins monthly exports to date. 2/ 1 ot
,'.:ilable.






- 13 -


Table 8.- Mcv-maent of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
countries, 1936-37 to 1939-40

S_ Exports as given by _official sources
Country : Total : July 1 to date shown : Date
:1936-37 1937-38 :1933-39 1937-3g :1938-39 :1939-40 :
: ,O 1,(O '~O0 1,000 1,000 1,000 .1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


United States 1j....:
Canada ............. :
Argentina ......... :
Australia .......... :
Soviet Union .......:
Hungary ............:
Yugoslavia ......... :
Rumania ............ :
Bulgaria ........... :
British India ......:


21 ,54
213,023
162,977
97,712
4,479
27,-32S
17,954
36,2.5,
7,275
16,571


107,194
94,546
69,670
123,453
43,354
9,368
5,012
32,210
P,489
19,677


115,784
159,885
116,116
96,635

27,650
5,346
43,940
2,633
10,097


24,659
53,175
14,000
13,076

1,525
1,975
10,090
1,085


35,519
80,942
19,556
17,904

2,200
1,586
7,009
177


26,o09
87,151
56,272
10,467

7,837
2,496
6,210
1,521


Oct. 31
Nov. 30
Oct. 31
Aug. 31

Aug. 31
Aug. 31
Sept.30
Aug. 31


Total ............: c05,266


512,973 578,136


___ Shioments as given by trade sources


: Totil :
:19;7-g :19S-39 :


'Teek ended 1939 : July 1
Dec. 2 : Dec. 9 : Dec.16 : 1938


- Dec.lb
: 1939


: 10s lC
:bushel s


North America V/...
Canada 3/..........
United States )/...


.*
*:
*:


Argentina ..........:
Australia .......... :
Soviet Union .......:
Danube and
Bulgar ia ]/ ........ :
British India ......:


184,720
94, 5,46
33,539
66,923
127,520
42,24L3

37,2'?2
8/1r,677


1,700
bushels

24 5,296
159,885
94,157
114,272
102,116
39,824

52,848
-/10,097
564,453


1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels bushels


6,405
5,0oo 4/
907
4,056

0

1,024
0


4,300 4/
423
4,281

0

1,664
0


2,660
2,000
615
2,456

0

848
0


114,256
89, 00o
27,746
25,996
6/18,696
37,128

19,384
6,208


221,66g


1, OQO
bushels


89,747
93,500
23,487
80,774
6/11,028
2,342

17,936
0
201,827


Tot p European :
shipments 2/.....: 397, 92
Totl ex-Europe-n :
shipments 2/...: 99,400


450,7784


146,760


j Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
2/ Broomhall's 6orn Trade I.-:wrs.
31 Official cxpcrts as reported to dnte, supplemented by reported weekly clearances
of wheat, and estimates of flour shipments.
42 Figur? derived by subtracting the United States exports from Broomhall's esti-
mate for North America.
Official reports received from 16 principal ports only.
Through September 2 only.
yJ Black Sea shipments only.
g/ Official.
21 Total of trade figures includes North America as reported. by Broomhall's but
does not include items 2 and 3.


r


Tot.l 2/......... : 47 ,.325






- 14 -


Table ".- Shipr. ents of wheat., includcinr f'I our fr:mr principal
.:< ~-rt n4 countries, specified dates, 193, and 1939


er ,d Argentina
Per.d : -d


ju)-v ~'~' Ct


Australia


: 193, : 1939 1938 : 19,39
: 1,0)0 ], :'00 ],00' 1,00.0
: bu. bu. bu. bu.
: 20,124 53,472 2-, l/11 ,,.2 8


Nov. 4 : 1,012 3,'. 4. /
11 : 90 5,152 568 2/
18 712 3, 15 5/ 2,/
25 : 6 D 4,346 1,536 2/
Dec. 2 : 1,11 1,0.53. 6,"8 ,
S: 452 4,2., 1,656 2/
1, :6 1,CJO 2,r 1 i2, 6 /

1/ Through Septc:-'.er 2 -nl;.
SoCt available.


iOar.' be


1,000
bu.
7,4-4


c80

1,672
3,624
1,5C'4
1,136


Table 10.- .::pots of whcatn andl wheat flour fr ,:
l13,: anf:- I039


19C7
ba.


632
1,264
960O
1,080
1,024
1,66L.
U20


rNcrth America
: 1938 : 1939
1,000 1,000
bu. bu.
80,776 61,832


6,192
6,488
5, 992
6,312
4,688
2,072
1,736


2,040
3,552
4,208
4,406
6,405
4,644
2,660


the Ur-.t.~i d St-ates


._____ ..r____In"li es .;'ion- .,111 '].d in
S. I.- eat :
Peri00 __ :

: 1,000 1,000
: '. l:.els bushels
July-Oct. : 27,331 13,152
Week ended 1/:


I or


nd frao forei.rn
..Iheat 'lur


1i,000
barrels
1,742


1939
1,000
barrels
2,842


wh


eat)


S3he&.t
.ncludir.
1938 :
1,000
bush el s
35) ,19


Nov. 4 717 12 93 47 1,154 233
11 : 3c7 29 84 84 782 424
18 : 2,092 164 51 63. 2,332 460
25 456 903 81 102 839 1,382
Dec. 2 338 277 57 134. 606 907
9 : 11 19 149 ?6 810 423
16 : 63 2/ 436 44 2/ 3, 270 2/ 615
Compiled from reports of the Departmrent of Col.u erce.
i/ Data for total exports fro. the in .ted States !-- wee'.s -ire not available.
Th '-se data re r :' sent exports throu -j 16 of the principal ports.
2_/ Preliminary.


flour
1939
1,000
bushels
26,509





WS-38


Country 1937-39 1938-39 ;_ Reported net imports
C ::July 1 to 1938-39 1939-40
Mil. bu. Mil. bu.: Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
*
Belgium "............... 36 39 : Aug. 31 8 2
Czechoslovakia ........: .J 1 I_ 1 : Aug. 71 1 3
Denmark ...............: 6 5 : Sept. 30 1 1
Finland ............... 3 2 : Aug. 31 1 2/
Fra.nce ................; 15 1/ 2 : July 31 1 l 2
Germany .............,:) ,5 July 31 1 1
Austria ............... ) (
Greece ...1...........: g 14 : Aug. 31 4 3
Island. ...............: 14 17 : Aug. 31 2 3
Italy ................: 5 14 : July 31 3 2
Latvia ................" 1 2/ Aug. 31 2/ 0
Netherlands ...........: 24 29 : Oct. 31 10 10
Norway ................: 7 8 : Oct. 31 3 4
Poland ................: 31/ I 3 : July 31 3/ 3/
Portugal ..............: 1 4 : Sept. 30 3 2
Sweden ................:l/ 1 2 : Sept. 30 1 2/
Switzerland ...........: 14 17 : Oct. 31 6 7
United Kingdom ........: 193 220 : Aug. 31 38 4g
Total imports of
above ............: 391 416

Spain .................: 3 16

Total imports .......: 394 432 3 Sg4
Total exports .......: 2 6 0 2
Total net imports ...: 392 426 3 82


Compiled from official sources except as otherwise strtad.

j :iet exports.
2j Less then 500,000 bushels.
31 Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.


15 -



Table 11.-Net irroorts of wheat including flour, into Eurepean
countries, years beginrni July 1, 1937 to 1939







WS-38


WORLD RYE PRODUCTION IN 1939

Production of rye in the 23 countries for which reports are available
totaled 953,56,000 bushels in 1939. This is 2 perce-it less than the
production reported in these countries in 1938, when the'.r production was
almo-,"' 2 percent of the estimated world total for rye.

UNITED STATES RYE PRODUCTION IN 1939

The 1939. rye crop of 39,24' ,000 bushels was 29 percent smaller than
the large 1939 crop but 8 percent above the 10-year (1928-37) average produc-
tion. Most of the dec:rc e in rye production this year co.mpa .red with 1938
was due to much smaller crops in Wisconsin, Iowa, .linne.ota, lorth Dakota,
South Dakota, and Nebraska where spring moisture conditions were unfavorable.
These six States accounted for two-thirds of the total United States produc-
tion of rye in 1939, which is :lso their average ratio for the 10 years,
1928 to 1937. In 1938, however, they produced 75 percent of the total crop.

The 3,811,000 acres of rye hcrvosted for griin this year represented
53 percent of the total acras',e seeded for all purpose.-, whereas the
4,021,000 acres harvested in 1938 comprised 60 percent of the total seeded
acreae. The grain yield have -ted per acre this year wra 10.3 bushels
compared with 13.3 biusntls in 1938 and 11.1 bushels, the 10-, ear average.
Yields were above average in a majority of the St.tes; east of the 'ississiopi
River and below avertve ,est of the River except in Missouri and several
States in the Northwest.

UNITED STATES RYE SC'T: FOR HARVEST IN 1940

The acreage of rye neededd in the fall of 1939 is estimated at
5,640,000 acres or 73.5 percent of the 7,187,000 acres s.eded in the fall of
1938. The seedings of rye include acreage seeded for p.a4ture, soil improve-
ment, etc., as well u.s acreage for harvest as grain. An allo'.an'ce is made
also for spring seedi-'.-;7o in areas where rye is spring scown. Incre:ases over
1935 occurred in the Atluantic Co:-:nt States and in the Pacific Northlest
where such of the sown a.croago is uced for purposes other than grain, such
as pasture and cover crop. The decre-a:.:e3 in the East North Cn-:tral States
largely offset the increases iade last year when gro'::rs shifted some acrea4ve
to rye, partly beccause of the reduced wheat acreage aLlotments. Decreases
in the important ryo St tes of the Northern Great Plains .,ero due mainly
to lack of moisture at seeding time, and were greater both in percentage
and areL than elso-:vhere.

The condition of ryu on December 1, 1939 at 64 percent of normal
is 12 condition points below last year and 15 points lower than the 10-year
(1927-36) .average. E-.jt of the :.ississippi River, co:'iditieOn is lower than
the 10-year average re:-c-.t i ichigan, but only in '.ticky, Te-.essec
and Georgia is co!ditio i as uuc: as 10 points belo':, averg%,e. Between the
Mississippi River a-,d the [lockry Iountains the condition varies from 14 points
below the 10-year average i', L',i- esota to 38 points in Febraska. The low
condition and yield prospect reflects the extreme shortage of moisture over
i.much of the rye producia-r territory.


- 16 -







- 17 -


Table 12.-Rye: Producion in specified coujr:.os, 1930-39


* -I.'.'


S 1937


* 1933


: 1939


1 C O b,1. 1 000 bu. 1 OO bu. 1,000 bu.


United States ........ 25,39 49,80 5554
C -ad,. ................;__ 4 -...1 ...5J1 __
Total (2) ....' 29,600 55,601 66,552


39,249

54,556


.irop o:
Aul a7ria ............
Denmark ............
Estor i ............
Finiand ............
Go rn,.-._ ............ &
Austria ............
Gre -ce? ............. ..
Hun airy ............
Italy ...............
Lo.tvia 4/ .........;
Lithuanf.a ..........
Luxemburg ..........:
Netherlandsa ......:
Or .'r ..............
Poland ............. :
Riim nia ............ .
Spein ............. .
3ieden ............. :
Switzerland ........
Yugoslavia .........:

Total (19) ....


8,188
7,. 2

22,134
290,793
18, o0
l, 154

5,20 4
Ii, 145
21,354
449
18736
425
280,9P 0
17,- 42

13 ,cY<

Ci' 2


9,337
9,889
S,327
16,982
272,296
16,830
C2,69
24,325
5,701
15,380
23,8394
392
19,036
443
221,9149
17,768
L/ 19,700
16,250
1,296
8,243


74o,)o 7 10,6 7


7,397
11,15
7,403
14,507
1/31,8 74
23,373
2,4339
31,677
5,428
14, 14
24,555
507
21, 694
4-z
433

0,
2o,362
5/ 16,900

.1,447
5,941


9,674
9,842
3,042
12,795
2/369,304

2,401
/- 36,251
5,962
17,698
25,724
549
23,621
4o0
3/300,382
19,062
17,212
1.5,263
1,287
9,637


396,405 8S5,114


Al geria. .............
Argentina ...........


Total (23) ..
S 1/ includes esti.- te
Sud el and. 3/ New
with previous years.


.. 777 ,149 769,338 973,,s27 953,SL.
for tbh3 Sudeterland. 2/ Irclden Austria and the
bo.undaris ead, therefore, not s'- ictly comparable
/ .itr wheat only. / estimated.


29
7,4s0


37
3,5) 3


10, 26


44
14,172




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

1"3-3 1: 3 1262 088618870


"able 4.-'.:e: Suply and diTtri-'.ioL, Uni ed ST -t+ 1935- 3


,. 7 : r icstribu-ion
Year :
7 ?ocs : 0 C :A parent
b e g i n -'o.. d s
... ar "": "nnO- :.PFro ..-: Ia- : -o-l : .- dis-
July : cia. i : o : ti ', : r O.5 : ,orRt : ,appear-
Jl u '7u
: l -- :::::::: M c
1,') 0 1, -0 .,1 1., 1. ,. 1 7 1,0' 0 1,000
: ._. bu. b t 0 1-1. bu. bu.

1935 8,,so 2,723 11,2 3 ,, .,?- 72,4 22 29, 49,38
135 : 6,'9 15, 2, 25, .25 3,343 2,2 4- 5,7So 4 26
-"-47 l,'+c6 4,41 5,: 6 1' -" ",7' r'. 7' ,T /'- 39,439
193S ,OGO ,b 3 "55., 1/ "), 3..' .7 23,c6' 41,413
1935 2/: 7,304 15,682 23,o. 39,L' 2, ~- (22, o)(400c),,.0o)


1/ Lear tla 500 b-snels.
2/ Prelimin,' .




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