Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00047

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

WS-36 October 26, 1939

THE WHEAT SITUATION
Incluc'ding Rye
--------------------------------------------

Summary

The wheat price situation is complicated by an unusually large

number of factors which might become important within the next few months,

according to. the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. These include changes

in prospects for the Uni-ed States 1940 winter wheat crop and in the

Australian and Argentine crops to be harvested in December and January,

political developments in Europe, the volume of exports, and general

business conditions. Domestic wheat prices declined to about loan levels

Qon October 7, but then reacted, strengthened by continued drought in winter

wheat areas, small market receipts, and the sale of substantial quantities

of Canadian wheat to the United Kingdom.

The domestic disappearance of wheat in the United States for the

year beginning July 1, 1939 is forecast at 675 million bushels. With total

supplies of 993 million bushels, consisting of a carrywar on July 1 of

254 million bushels and the indicated crop of 739 million bushels, a dis-

appearance of this size would leave 318 million bushels available for ex-

port during the season, or for carry-over at the end of the marketing year.

Prospective world wheat supplies l/ for the year beginning July 1,

1939 are now indicated to be about 240 million bushels more than a year

ago. Increases in carry-over stocks July 1, 1939 more than offset the


l/ All references to world production and stocks in this report exclude the
U.S.S.R. and China, except whers noted.






VS-36 2-

decrease in production. World stocks I/ of old wheat on July 1 are esti-

mated at about 1,165 million bushels or about 565 million bushels more than

a year earlier. world. wheat production 1/ is now estimated at about 4,264

million bushels, or r"bout 325 mil.l.in bu.hcls less than in 1938. The crop

in the Northern Homisphere is estimated to b3 about 3,792 million bushels,

which is about 225 million bushels less than the harvest of 1938. Weather

conditions to date indicate a decrease in production of about 100 million

bushels for the Southern Hemisphere countries..

On the basis of present supply estimates and a moderate decrease

in world disappearance, the world stocks on July 1, 1940 are expected to

be about 1,440 million bushels. Stocks of this size would be a new high

record and about 275 million bushels larger than the estimate for 1939.

World trade in wheat and flour for the year beginning July 1, 1939

is expected to be smaller than in 1938-39, when shipments totaled about

600 million bushels. Stocks available for export in surplus.producing

countries greatly exceed this quantity. Exports of United States wheat

and flour from July 1 to October 15 amounted to about 19 million bushels

compared with about 30 million bushels for the same period a year earlier.

The production of rye in the 20 countries for which reports are

available, and which produced about 85 percent of the estimated world

production in 1938, is estimated at about 913 million bushels, or about

3 million bushels above the total for these countries last year. The

17 European countries reporting show an increase of about 1 percent com-

pared with tho 1938 production.


1/ All referoncos to world production and stocks in this report exclude
the U.S.S.R. and China, except where noted.








THE WORLD WHI3AT SITUATION 2/

3ACKGROUN1D.- Total world supplies of wheat increased sharply
from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of increased acreage.2/
From 1934 to 1936 world supplies declined, following successive
years of small yields and increased world demand. Supplies in-
creased slightly in 1937. With the return of more normal yields
on the Inarc acreage, supplies in 1938 were again large the
largest on record up to that time.

Total world shipments of wheat cv:r%-ed 751 million
bushels for the period 1923-37, re:ch'd a peak of 913 million
bushels in the year beginning July 1928, and then declined
sharply, largely as a result of the measures taken by im-
porting countries to reduce the use of foreign wheat. For
the year beginning July 1, 193g, world shipnorts were 598
million bushels.

World wheat prices declined in the period 1924-33
with the increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in
prices after 1929 was due largely to, the general decline in
industrial activity and commodity prices. From the spring
of 1933 to the summer of 1937, world what prices moved
steadily upward, reflecting a world-wide recovery in con-
modity price levels, currency depreciation, and reduced
production. The world price for the 1937 crop remained
practically uncLanged from that of a year earlier. In
1938 world prices again declined sharply as a result of
the record world production and weakness of demand.

World July 1939 stocks estimated at 580 million
bushels above 193Z stocks

The world wheat carryover on July 1, 1939 is now estimated at 1,165
million bushels, compared with the Bureau's Juni approximation of 1,200
million bushels. The largest increase in exporting countries (table 1)
occurred in Argentina, where stocks are estimated to have increased 121
million bushels. The increase in the United States wheat stocks at 101
million bushels was the second largest. Importing European countries
increased their stocks by about 195 million bushels.



2/ All references to world production and stocks in this report exclude
the U.S.S.R. and China, except where noted.


- 3 -


ws-36






WS-36


Table 1.- Estimated world old crovi wheat stocks 1/, about July 1,
!?;'3 .and 1939

: : ~ S9 compared
Co'antries 193 1l39 2 w th 13S-
: Million .! ilion million
bu:hels b-: .- Is A ._h_,ls

United. States 3/ ................: 154 255 101
C -r- i .... ........... ...... ...: 36 118 1 82
Arntina ............... 75 1cs t 121
Australia .......................: CO 64 t 4
Danube ..........................: 40 75 i 35
Others and afloat ...............: s '0 107 27
Total of rSpve ................: 5 l5 t 3970
Europe, nxclu.linr; Danube and
Soviet Russia ............... _1 50 + 5_
Total ]_/ ......................: 1 L 11 C5 .
1/ :-cluI.-s Soviet ias;i- and .C'ia. Cor'rable eatimr.tes for 1937 in
"T-e Wne't Situation," Se--t.'?:er 23, 1938, pie 6, table 2.
2/ Preliini-.2. .
j/ Old-crop wheat only.

World 1939 crop -now' estimated -t t21 million bushels below c 1 cr1p

The world. procaction of ':c?. in the 1939-40 season is still estimated
at 4,264 million bushels, as compared, with the 19. -39 crop of 4, rno million
bushels. The estimate -places the production for this :-.ar second only to
that of 193 -39, when an all-tine record crop was report .. The current
esti`'-tte of the crop is 7 percent less than that of last y,'.'. The production
in the Northern Hemisr.h-r-:; is now pinced at 3,792 million bu-:h'ls, compared
with 4,014 million lushels in 1938. The pro- action in Ercpe, c::clud.ing
Soviet ERussia, is estimated at 1,709 million lbushlc, conm:'roed '-ith the re-
cord 193l production of 1,859 million bushels.

In Ar.-Mntina abrnd ;:t, heavy rains have zupplied, nore thar. equateae
moisture supplies and. clear, dri7 weather is now desirable. Hi,'h temperatures
throughout most of the winter have caused :,'rna.l C(:v.lopment, which puts
the crop in a condition unfavorable for writhitandi-ng frost da:. .: The
second estirivate shows a reduction in the acrt : so'..' for harvest in late
1939 rni. the early -ort of 1940 to 17,791,000 acres, from the prior c-tim.ato
of 18,572,000 acres. Thiz is a 15 percent reduction from the larg-, acr:cace
sown for har-.: .t last yc..r. The outlook for the Au .tralirn crop is ",nnoralr1y
good.

Over lar,. arac of Earo'o cold, 'vi.t ucathor is rot'r.iiU-! thc pro;:re:ss
of field work and is unfavorable to su .di.:.,. This is reported to "c truo of
Italy, Gorm..-n-, Ra-uaia, Bulgaric., YuTosl.via, and parts of other countries.

In Soviet aussia, 4 orc(..nt of the rcro':-,no provided for in the Plan
had boon scodcd onr. S .toribcr 30. This cormn'r.-cs with 66 percent s.' *ded on
the smeao date of last year.


- 4-






- 5 -


able 2.- Production of wheat in specified countries, 1936 to 1939


Country
:*


NORT .PE. HEMISPHERE :
North America:
United States .....:
Canada ............
Slexi co ............
Total (3) .......
Euroe :
England and Wales :
Sc ,otl n- d .......... :
Northern Ireland ..:
Ireland ...........
Noriway ............. :
Sweden ............ :
Denrark ...........:
Netherla.-ds ....... :
Belgium .......... :
France ............ :
Spain ............. :
Luxe bur ......... :
Portugal .......... :
Italy ............. :
Switze rland ....... :
Geran.y ..............
Austria ...........
Czechoslovakia ....
Greece ........... :
Poland ............ :
Lithuania ......... :
Latvia ............ :
rstonia ...........
Finla d .......... :
Malta .............
Albania ......... .:
Bulgaria ..........:
Hun-iga1y .......... .
Rum. ani. ...........
Yugoslavia .........
Total Europe, (30):
excluding Soviet:
Russia .........


1936


": 1937


1,000 1 0
bushels bushels


626,766
219,218
1 ,581.
Fp59,565


51,445
3,547
273
7,839
2,094
21,635
11,266
15,428
16,153
254,618
121,457
1,071
C,651
224,570
4,470
162,660
14,039
55,5`3
19,537
76,357
8,027
5,272
2,433
5,259
236
1,106
60,351
87,789
128,717
107,422


875,676
180,210
10,587
1,066,473


52,005
4,181
164
6,990
?~497
23 720
13,521
12,615
15,550
257,838
110,000
1,206
14,668
296,282
6,184
164,120
14,709
51,266
30,049
70,774
8,109
6,302
2,786
7,665
326
1,636
64,910
72,157
138,158
86,238


1,461,305 1,535,626


: 1938 : 1939

1,000 1,000
bushels bushels

930,801 739,445
350,010 449,058
13,425 i/ 13,000
1,294,236 1,201,503


69,253
3,883
213
7,398
2,637
30,184
16,935
15,939
20,131
372,867
96,000
1,830
16,534
297,319
7,812
204,956
16,207
65,708
36,135
79,802
9,233
.7,052
3,139
9,405
296
1,650
78,951
98,777
177,154
111,330


56,149
3,360
152
2/ 8,000
2,535
31,452
2_/ 14,000
13,301
2/ 16,000
2/ 276,000
112,000
997
2_/ 18,300
294,400
6,559
3/ 205,175

2/ 40,000
35,274
83,407
9,223
2/ 6,500
3,013
8,231
1/ 300
1/ 1,600
71,155
4/ 112,092
176,368
103,741


1,E58,730 1,709,284


Continued -


r m







.'S-36 6-

Ta.ble .- .-o.'uction of vwhuat in s' ,mified counLries, 1936 to 193?
Continued


CD-.inry


: 1936


: 1937


1939


.':F' L -K ISPE JIP "E
Continued :
Africa:
Algeria ............:
Lorocco ............
Tunisia ............
~.Tpt .... .. ......
Total (4)
Asia:
Palustinr. .......... :
Syria and Lebanon ..:
India .............. :
Japan .............. :
Chosen ............. :
Turkey ............. :
Total (6) ........
Total 43 co.-'tries:
Estimated M*orthern:
I-ermi, sphere total,:
,-xcl'ding Soviet :
Russia and China. :


.bush .,shels
bushels bushels I


29,774
12,234
8,0?3
45,700
95,791


33,106
20,895
, 17,637
45,377
117,01.


2,795 4,682
15,704 17,227
352,203 364,075
45,191 50,407
8,161 10,323
141,582 132, 35
565. 636 57 6
3,002,297 3,301,813



3,107.000 3,406C,00


S n '. "I r. I '' I. ..I .' :J :S1
Ar-e t ina ............ : 249,193
Au :tralia ............: 1 51,390
Union of South Africa : 16,077
-st ated r.orld to- :
tal, excludii :.
Soviet Russia -.d :
China .............: 3,579,0'00


184, -01
107,256
10,157


3,852,000


1, 000



3L,941
23,172
1 ', 963
45,935
11.:.,011


1,000
bushels


42,622
38,764
18,555
49,008
14.8,949


1,633 5,000
23,674 1/ 22,000
401.,356 370,608
4:.,244 / 61,036
10,401 12,286
155,097 1/ 158,000
63',905 628,930
3,909.382 3, 868,666



4,014,000 3,792,000


?35,201 /," 230,000
.154, 426 1/ 160,000
17,093 1/ 15,000



4,5"8.,O0 1,264,000


Compiled from official data except as


otherwise noted.


_/ A:roximation.
Est Lnate of the London office of the Bureau.
%/ Includes Austria 2nd the Sudeter.lar.d.
4/ Fro':.ction i within ne-. boundaries.
/ The 7;an. Wai office of the Foreign Service cc.-siders t-his es-tir.'ate too
hi >.
6/ Base on v.et:ei ec.-.'...tions to date.


:






WS-36


- 7 -


World whe'.t stocks ZJqy 1, 1940 o_ ecctod to be record.

On the. basis of present supply tim..atcs r.n. a .odc.:: .?to decrease in
world dicappcarance, tho world stock. on July 1, 1940 aro xpocted. to be
about 1,440 million bushels. Stocks of this size would be o about 250 million
buchls larg.-r than the record in 1934 and about 275 million bushels larger
than the estimate for 1939.

Table 3.- Estimatod. T/orld ''L:t supply ,nd pro"poctivo distribution,
y -ars beginning July 1, 193, and 1939

: Y_' r ':in--.b' -.'i*L ___
ItU eL 93 1 939
:__ e stim.ate : i;.ic...tions
: Hillionr bushls milliono n bushels

Stocks July 1 ............. .....: 600 1,155
Production ..... ....... ....... 4...: 58g ] j, 264
Total u:mly ..................: 5, 188 T 9
Not reports from Soviet Rassia ....: 37 __ 12
rotal of above ...............: 5,225 ,:l-il
Dis.roac.ranc ................... ..: _____ 60 2/ ,'00
Stocks Juno 30 ........... ..... .: 1,165 b
lj B3a.:. on current estimate;: of roe.liction in t'ie T'rth-rn Ecisphere,.
and -rirospoects in the Southern Houi--hcro.
2/ Dis.cpe.ar'nca will ecnpnd upi.)n ifn'br of ".uprodictable factors.

World. trade in 1939-4-0 :- -:ct- to be snallcr
than in 1938-39

.7orld -v.he.t a-d flour trace for the y:.ar begi,_in- July 1, 1939 is
expected to be smaller than in 1938-39 nh.-n shipmoonts totaled about 600
million bu--hv-s. The quantities available for e.,port -:.re estimated. from
July 1 stocks plus production, after allowving for nanu-al utilization .zid a
carry-ovrr ,:t the end. of the y7c"r. In tho four major sporting countries
and. the Da.ubian countries, tho quanItities available total about 875 million
bushels. Therc are porho~m 125 million buchols in tho Unitcd. States, 300
million bushels in Cranada, 250 million bushels in ArgCntina, and 110 million
bushels in Australia, besid.os about 90 million buhl"cls in the Danubian coun-
tries. This does not tke into consic-.r '.tion oxport- from other countries
incluc'i- Indio"., the U.S.S.R., iTrth Africa, ..I. PTulrkoy.

The surplus a-.-ailable for opport on October 1 i" c shovm in table 9,
and, current trae statistics with co.r)a.risons in t.;hble 10 to 13.






WS-36 8 -

Tn.ahl ..- S;ir,-"., bI.:t'-:".n n.or.. i '..,.t prices i-. ,- nriccs ".t


:D ".tu.-co n ou.z- ll : C".h '':: "t ri-r bushel
o::th : Chic".o : :' :--. City : 1 .. H.' -. d Tintr
, d. : rl .it ,d to ..._ r- t.:. to :iK{ n,'.x City)rolated to
yer -0 Pircels
Ti .nipe. :Livc' l:i: .ip.:7 g :Liverpool: Uir.itob : (Livrpool)

: Cents Cents Cent s C-.r.t Cents Cent s

1907 : 11.3 16.5 17.5 22.7 10.1 23.0
193S : 2.3 9.7 6.6 14.o 6.1 19.2
1939 11.1 11.9 6.0 6.g 17.4 13.6
Scet. :
1937 : 17.3 23.6 22. 2.8 34.1 26.5
193S : 2.S 6.g 0.9 10.5 7.9 13.3
1939 : 15.4 I/ 10.6 I/ 23.2 -
Wok :

Oct. 14 :
1937 : 19.7 2S.o 22.7 31.0 12.1
193 : 5.3 2.4 1.3 6.4 10.0 ---
1939 17.9 13.0 / 2.2 --

1/ Liverpool closed. until further notice.

(~) before fi-aure donotcs C'.iC<:o or Kcns-s City below Winnip-g or Livcrnool.

Govcrnnm-nt nc .-ures o..:'-:i.; to nect Wrr conditions

A n-nabor of *?vorni-ntal c- ..,:- a in vwhelt policy '.- t!.ken r.acc
since the outbreak of hostilities in uDrope. T;.n British '-ov. rn:..cnt on
Sep)to:.bor 4 took action to requisition v-ll grain stocks in the Thito;d Kincdon,
.r.. closed the Livcr)pool a~d London f'ut".i-es -n.rkets. Control of the na-.tional-
ized vwheaot stocks onid of irToorts is vest:d in the Ministry of Food., under
which Port Area Grnin Co-r.itto< s r..s a Cereals Pu.rc..~in7; Coniittoo h'vc been
established. Csh tra..:..:: a.t fipxo. prices is now p)crnitted in Livcr-oool r-nd
London. Th- C:cr-:,.s Purchi.-.:i: Co.,;rttoo is in ch-roe of all grain imports.
Millers a.ro rocuired to produce str-:ight-run flour. of 70 p)."c,..t oxtr.ction.
Recently the 3ritish Food IMinistry increase'S. the oro.ortionnl CI-".dian wheat
in -niiin. 2i:tur',-s to (0 percent, c.'t:h-red i the 20 percentt previously
rc ouired.

The Argentine Go--ornnent on Sent-nber 6 susendoed the doncstic nini=un
price of 7 pesos per quintal, uhich served to re:mve the p : fron the Buenos
Aires unarket.








The Commonwealth Government of Australia on September 14 announced
that it would requisition all domestic wheat stocks other than those on
farms, and that a compulsory marketing pool would be organized.

The Canadian Government on September 8 announced that the Winnipeg
futures market would continue to, ope-e.te for the present.

Winnipeg prices lower than a month ago

Winnipeg prices after reaching the war-influenced peak in early
September declined until early October, largely as the result of limited
inquiry by exporters and some relief from acute drought in the United
States winter wheat areas. Increased concern over developments in
Europe and, more recently, relatively large purchases of Canadian wheat by
the United Kingdom have been strengthening factors. .However, this was
partly offset by heavy country movement, which has made it necessary to
embargo shipments to Fort William and Port Arthur. Winnipeg December
futures averaged 65 cents for the week ended October 14, compared with
73 cents for the week ended September 9, and 64 cents for the week ended
October 7 (table 8). December w,'heat futures at Winnipeg for the week
ended October 14 averaged 18 cents lower than at Chicago, compared with
15 cents lower for the month of September, and 11 cents lower for August
(table 4).

THE DOMESTIC ".HEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUID. The carry-over of old wheat in the United
States averaged about 220 million bushels in the 10-year
period 1929-38. In 1933 stocks reached'a record peak of
about 360 million bushels. The domestic disappearance
during the 10 years, 1929-38, averaged about 685 million
bushels.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to
that of 1937 were unusually high in relation to world
prices, as the result of small crops in the United States.
During the year begi.ring July 1936, both world and
domestic prices advanced sharply as a result of increased
demand and small supplies. Prices received by producers
for the 1936-37 season averaged 103 cents per bushel; for
the 1937-38 seuso, 96 cents; and for the 1938-39 season,
55 cents. Prices were lower in 1938-39 largely as the
result of the lTarge world wheat supplies.

Domestic disappearance in 199-40 now forecast at
67- million bushels

The- domestic disappearance of wheat in the United States for the
year beginning July 1, 1939 is now placed at 675 million bushels. This
is 20.million bushels less than the early forecast. The higher levels
of wheat prices relative to feed grain prices since early September have


ws-36


- 9 -





WS-36


- 10 -


made it desirable to reduce tho estimated quantity which will be used
as feed. The October 1 crop report increased the indication for spring
wheat production by 3.3 million bushels, indicating the total wheat
crop in the United States at 739.4 million bushels. On the basis of
these revisions there appear to be about 318 million bushels of wheat
available for export or carry-over at the end of the season (table 5).
The volume of the exports from the United States during the current
year is not predictable at this time, but it is expected to be
materially less than the 109 million bushels last season. Exports of
United States wheat and flour from July 1 to October 15 amounted to
about 19 million bushels compared with about 30 million bushels for the
same period a y,"r earlier.



Table 5.- Estimated United States wheat supply and distribution,
years beginning July 1, 1937-39


Item 1937 : 1938 : 1939 l/

Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.

Stocks, of eld wheat July 1 : 83 153 254
Production ................. 876 931 739
Total supplies ..........:_ 959 1,084 993
Distribution #
Domestic disappearance .....: 703 721 675
Net exports 2/ ............: 103 109 319
Stocks at end of year ...... : 153 254

I/ Preliminary.
2/ Includes shipments to Territories.


July-September farm wheat disappearance above average

Stocks of wheat remaining on farms October 1 are estimated at
332 million bushels, or about 45 percent of this year's indicated
production. The quanLtity on farms on October 1 was smaller than the 401
million bushels a year earlier, and smaller than the 10-year average of
340 million bushels, but it was larger than in any year since 1932,
excepting 193S. The disappearance of wheat from farms during the period
July 1 to October 1 was 498 million bushels, compared with 5S8 million
bushels during the same period last year, and the 10-year average of 464
million bushels for July October 1 disappearance.

Stocks of wheat on farms, together with commercial stocks, for
recent years are shown in table 6. Data for stocks in country mills and
elevators will he released October 25, and data for stocks in merchant
mills and elevators will be available about the first of November.






VjS-36 11 -

Table 6.- -heat stocks on farms and: in cities
(commercial) on October 1, 10-year average, 1937-39

Item : 1937 1938 1939
1 00Q bu. .1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.

Farm stocks ..........: 340,348 326,503 401,411 332,213
Commercial stocks ....: 156,624 1A1,496 139,273 162,045
Total in 2 portions : 496,972 467,999 540,684 494,258


United States wheat production now indicated at 739 million bushels

The preli Lminar- estimate of wheat production is 739 million bush-
els, coi.pared with 931 million bushels in 1938 and the 10-year (1928-37)
average of 753 million bushels. The 1939 production is smaller than the
1938 crop by 191 milli.-i bushels, or approximately 21 percent, but it is
smaller than the 10-year average by only about 14 million bushels, or
about 2 percent. The decrease in production compared with last year is
a result of decreased acreage, since the indicated 1939 yield per acre is
0.1 bushels above the 1938 yield. The October 1 preliminary esti.hte of
the production in 1939 is slightly above the September 1 forecast, be-
cause of spring wheat yields exceeding earlier expectations in a few
NWrthern Plains and Northwestern States. !;o change has been made in the
estimate of winter wheat production since August, at which time the crop
was estimated at 551 :il1lio: .bushels.-

The production of sprin, 'w>`eat, other than durum, is estimated to be
156 million bushels, which is almost 25 percent less than the 1938 crop,
but only 1 percent below the 10-year average. -The 1938 production of
other spring wheat wa.s 204 million bushels, and the 10-year average .158
million bus-ils. Other spring -.-rheat yields exceeded earlierr expectations
in Colorado- and the northivrwestern States. The. October 1 indicated yield .
is 11.7 bushels per acre, compared with the 193E yield of 12.0 bushels,
and the 10-year average of 10.9 bu-hels.

Dur-;n wheat production-i; estimated at 33 million bushels.. The
pro'uction-is 7 .Million.bushels, or'about 18 percent,, smaller than the
1931. crop of 40 million bushels but, excepting last yea' s crop, it is
the largest production of durum wheat since 1932.. The 10-year average
production -of durum -wheat is 35 million bushels. The'October 1 indicated.
yield of 10.7 bushels per acre is scmEc.hat& lowee than 'the 1938 yield of
11.4 bushel.s, but .is above the 10-year average of 9.4 bushels.

Domestic prices recover part of decline which c hded October 9

Domestic i:heat prices declined from the middle of September to
about October 7, largely as the result of slow domestic and. foreign






- 12 -


demand. Prices on October 9 fell to around loan values but since that time
have recovered a part nf the decline. Continued drought in winter wheat
areas, small market receipts, and the sale -f Canadian wheat to the United
Kingdom have served to raise prices again above loan levels. The weighted
price of.No..2 Hard Winter Wheat at Kansas City mn October 21 was 83 cents,
compared with 90 cents on September 6 when prices were high, and 79 cents
cn Oct ber 7, when prices were low, and the loan value at Kansas City was
80 cents. Chsh prices at other domestic markets are shown in table 7 and
futures prices, both in domestic and foreign markets, in table P.

The withholding of wheat from market this year has been an important
market factor. Up to October 15, about 136 million bushels cf wheat had been
pledged as collateral against Commodity Credit Corporation loans, of which
Lbout 19 million bushels were in farm storage and 117 million bushels in
elevators. Up tn October 21, a ye-.r ago, only 20 million bushels had been
pledged.

The whet price situation is complicated by an unusually large number
of factors which might become important within the next few months, accord-
ing to thu Bureau of Agricultural Economics. These include changes in
prospects for the United States 1940 winter wheat crop a-nd in the Australian
and Argentine crops tn be harvested in Decenber, political developments in
Europc, the volume of experts, and general business cnndtions.

Table 7.- eoirhtcd Lverr.ge cash price of wheat, specified
markets and dates, 1938 and 1939

:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :14o. 2 h.-rdd r-o 2 : westernn
Month :and grades :H-.rd Wintcr:Dk.N.Snring:Ambcr Durum:Rod Winter : White
or date :six markets:Ka.nsas City:'inneapolis:Minneapolis:St. Louis :Seattle 1/
:1938 :1939 :1938 :139 :193 :1939 .38 :1939 :1938 :1939 :ld98 :1969
: t. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.
Month- :


July
Aug.
Sept.
Week
ended-
Sept. 2
9
16
23
30
Oct. 7
14

High 2/
Low 2/


:68.4
:59.9
:68.3


:69.5
:66.8
:69.4
:68.7
:68.3
:64.9
:65.7

:71.0
:64.9


67.5
72.2
90.0


77.3
92.9
91.1
90.5
88.5
85.3
p3.6

92.9
65.4


70.0
65.5
65,7


66.7
62.8
64.6
65.9
66.P
63.8
65.9

71.1
62,A


66.7
64.6
85.9


67.5
87,0
86.0
86.5
85.3
82.5
S1.5

P7.0
62.3


87,6
77.5
76.2


76.2
75.3
78.8
75.8
76.7
73.3
72.9

97.6
72.9


77.8
76.2
92.5


81,3
94,6
94.1
93.3
90.5
88.0
65.9

94.6
73.8


79.8
73.1
68.9


69.5
67.6
70.1
69.1
69.0
65.1
66.2

83.4
65.1


73.3
80.1
94.9


83.1
97.9
95.9
93.7
93.4
90.6
89.3

97.9
68.3


68.9
65.6
67.1


86.6
64.1
67.4
67.9
68.6
67.6
67,9

A9.1
63.5


69.5
68.5

88.4


73. M
94.2
89.6
89.8P
88.4
86.1
85.?

94,2
65,5


67,8
61.2
62.7


62.1
61,0
63,6
62.0
64.2
62.2
63.5

69.4
59.7


68.6
69,5
81,0


70.6
84,2
81.4
80.8
80.0
77.4
78.9

84.2
66.6


Y/ oekly i-ver-ge of
July 8 to October


daily eash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
14, 1939, and corrosronding dates for 1938,


WS-36






WS-36


13 -

Table 8.- Average closir; price of December- wheat futures, specified
markets Ind dates, 1935 and 19539


Month : Winnipeg : Liverpool : buencs : : Kt.sa :,
or / / : AireChic .'go T'inneapolis
or : 1/ /: : Aires : City :.1
date : 1938: 1939: 1938: 1939: 1'78 : 1939 : 193: 3 1 3C: -.:'9: 1959! 1'95 3: 19!3


Faornth :Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
July 76.0 56.0 ,82.6 57.4 -- -- 72.9 67.6 67.6 62.9 76.9 70.6
Aug. 68.1 '55..2 75.5 54.4 --- -- 65.8 66.3 61.5 61.2 68.8 69.0
Sept. : 61.8 69.0 71.4 --- -- -- 64.6 84.4 60.9 79.6- 66.5 85.2
Week : -
enc'.ed c
Sept.2: 61.0 59.6 72.2 52.4 2/ 61.9 2/ 55.1 64.7 70.4 61.2 65.3 66.6 72.0
9: 59.0 73.0 67.6 / / 57.4 2/ 54.3 62.5 85.1 59.3 79.8 64.4 86.7
16: 63.6 70.4 71.4 --- 61.2 2/ 53.3 65.7 85.4 61.6 80.7 67.6 86.9
23: 62.2 68.8 72.6 --- 60.6 4/ 55.8 64.6 85.9 60.5 '81.2 66.3 86.2
30: 62.5 65.9 73.4 --- 4/ 62.0 4J' 55.8 65.6 84.4 ( 1.7 80.1 '67.4 84.2
Oct. 7: 58.8 63.6 68.2 -- 58.8 4 53.9 64.2 81.9 60.0 "77.2 65.5 81.6
14: 59.7 65.0 67.4 --- 4/ 57.2 4/ 52.3 65.0 82.7 61.0 78.0 66.0 81.3
Eigh 5/ 77.6 73.0 83.0 60.5 61 65.1/ 58.5 74.7 85.9 68.9 81.2 78.5 86.9
Low : 58.8 52.9 67.4 52,4 6/ 57.2 6/ 52.3 62.5 64.4 59.3 59.5 64.4 67.4
!/ oonversi ons at noorn b1uyi n rate of exchange. 2 October futures. 3/ Closed until
further notice. 4/ November futures. 5/ July 8 to October 14, 1939, and correspond-
ing dates, 1938. 6/ October and November futures.

Table 9.- Wheat surplus for export -or carry-over in three -exporting
countries, United Ki'.ngtom port stocks and stocks afloat,
October 1, 1936-39 i/

Position 1936 1937 1938 1939

Canada Mil. bu. Yil. bu. T-l. bu. il. bu.
In Canada ................. 184 98 230 387
In the United States ...... : 19 1 2 11

Arerntina .................. 21 10 21 107
Australia ................... : 21 17 20 2/
Total ................... 245 126 273

United Kingdom port stocks .. 6 9 17 2

Stocks afloat to: .
United Kingdom ............ : 17 i0 8 2
Continent .............. : 9 9 12 2/
Orders ................... : 3 3 9 2/
Total .................. : 35 31 46

Grand total ............ : 280 157 319 _
1/ Carry-over at the beginning of the year (Canada, July 31; IAr; ntina, January 1;
Australia, December 1 of the previous yvar) plus production, minus domestic utiliza-
tion for the year minus r.monthly exports to date. 2/ .Tot available.







WS-36


- 14 -


Ti-ble 10.- Movrem'ent of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
-c-u.ntres, .]':'3 -37 to 1939-40


Country


United States 1/.
Can.d:- ....... .
Argentina ,....
Austr -li-: ......
Soviet Union ....
Hungary ......
Yugosl..via ......
Rurmnia .........
Bulgaria .....
British India ...







North America 3/,
Canada 4 ...... 6
United States 6,
Argentin .......
Australia ......
Soviet Union ..
Danube and
Bulgaria 8/ ..,
British India ...
Total 10/ ....
Total zurcpc.n
shipments 3/ .
Total ex-Euro-
pean shiprents
3/ ...........


: Exports ,.s _given by official sources :
: Tntal : July 1 to dete shown :
:1956-37 :1937-3. :193'-3) :197-35 :1938-39 :1939-40 :


bushels
21,584
2135,028
162,977
97,712
: 4,479
: 27,428
17,9.54
36,251
: 7,275
: 16,571
:C5 .266


: 1 000 1 000 1 000 1 00r


bushels
1'7,194
94,546
69,670
123,453
43,354
9,368
5,m12
32,210
8,4 9
19. 777
512,973


- '- I *.. ..


bushels
115,784
159,885
116,116
96,685

27,651
5,346
43,696
2,633
2/10,011
577,817


busr els
10,610
25,237
7,765
13,076

502
391
1,318
781


1 ,COo
bushels
24,434

1, C52
17,904

F6
1

173


1,000
bushels
16,357
45,091
27,300
10,364

1,978
111
3,12
1,042


Date


Aug. 31
Sept. 30
Aug. 31
Aug. 31

July 31
July 31
July 31
July 31


: Shipments us given by tr,.de sources
: Ttt.l : '-ee. ended 1V39 : July 1 Oct. 14
:1937-3C :1938-30 :Sort. 30 :Jct. 7 :Dct. 11 : 1936 : 1959
: 1,C0 1, Ono 1,000 1,C000 1, 0CC 1, 000
:bushels ushcls bish- ls bushels bushels bushels bushels
184,720 245,236 5,01) 3, 2Z4 1,740 65,312 57,268
04, 5P6 16)' 885 2, OO 3,100 -- 5/36,200 i/48,200
83,589 04,157 924 83C 907 26,297 17,144
: 66,928 114,272 2,931 1,P53 2,690 17, 41 46,849
: 127,520 102,116 --- --- --- j1 P,96 7/11,028
: 42,21R8 3 824 %0 r' 30,920 2,000
: 37,232 52, SPI 832 ,7e 5,208 9,160

:9/19 677 6 2 r. 0 n 6,064 0
47W,.325 560. 3.6 144.040 12,305

: 397,592 450,784 6, P4 11/10,552 11/95,168


: 99,400


146,760


1,704


1I/ 28,2 0 _11/28,008


Inr-'lul.:su fl-ur rrille. in bond from f':r.ign *h,. .t.
Incomplete; excludes land trade for June.
, Broomhall's Corn Trade Un.-ws.
Official exports as ropor-d' to date, surplementod by reported weekly clear-
ances of wheat, and estimates of flour shipments.
/ Through October 7 only.
j Official reports received from 16 principal ports only.
Through Scptembcr 2 only.
/ Black Sea shipments only.
Official.
10/ Total of tr-.de figures includes Yorth Ar:-rica as reoirted by Broomh.ll's but
does not include items 2 tnd 3.
jl/ Through September 30 only.


I






- 15 -


Table 11.- Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal
exporting countries, specified dates, 1938 and 1939


Argentina Australia
: 1938 : 1939 '93 : 1939 P:
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bu. bu. bu. "'bo.

:12,308 28,860 18,696 11,028


a


ed- :

16
23
30
7
14
21


764
1,116
880
1,524
836
4l2
796


4,672
2 ,836
2 999
2 931
1 ,853
2,698
2, 69


1, 456
1,380
1,704
1,256
972
1,708
844


Danube North America
1938 : 1939 : 1938 ::1939


1,000 1,000 1,000
bu. bu. bu.

1,727 5,728 37,384


456
624,
384
552
4oo
920..
680


384
200
624

. .32
872
512


3,4oo0
4,152
)4,296
5,536
5.776
4,768
8, lo4


1,000
bu.


36,440

4,800
2,352
3,102
5,010
3,824
1,740


Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade News.
l/ Not available.

Table 12.- Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,
1938 and 1939

(includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)..
: : : Wheat including
Period : Wheat : Wheat flour : flour
: 193S : 1939 : 1938 : 1939 --: 1938 : 1939
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels barrels barrels bushels bushels

July-Aug. : 20,744 'C,'so 785 1,591 24,434 16,357
Week ended l/ :
Sept. 9 55 1i49 42 48 755 375
16 506 775 68 80 828 1,151
23 939 76 37 99 1,173 541
30 836 515 23 87 968 924
Oct. 7 572 266 55 120 830 Z30
14 567 2/ 663 100 2/ 52 1,037 2/ 907

Compiled from reports of the Department of Cormmerce.
1/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not available.
These data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ Preliminary.


ws-36


Period.


July-Aug
Week end
Sept.


Oct.






;:S-36


i6 -

Ta.ble I'.- Net im-ports of vheat including flour, into European
countries, yuars beginning July 1, 1937 to 1939


CounLn t _


Bel inn ......u...... *
Czechoslovak:ia ........:
Denmark ...............:
Finland ....... ....... *
Fr=r ce ................:
Gertiary ...............
Austria ..............:
Greece ................:
Ireland ...............:
Italy .................:
Latvia ...........
Netherland-s .........:

Poland ..............:
Portugeal .............
Sweden ................:
Si t z erland .......g..*:
United Kinrjdom ........:
Total imports of
above ...........:

Spain .................:

Total imports .......:
Total exports ......:
Total net imports ...:


1937- 38


l93g-39 :


MI.il. bu. Mil. bu.:,

36 39 :
1/ Ij/ -1
6 5:
3 2:
15 I/ 2
5) :
) 54 45
19 14 :
14 17 :
5 14 :
1 0:
24 29 :
7 8 :
3/ I -3 :
1 4:
/_ 1 2 :
14 17 :
193 220 :

391 416 :


Reported nrt imports
July 1 to: 193-539 : 1939-40
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
*0


July
Aug.
July
July
Julyv

Au-g.
July

Aug.
July
July
July
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.


33 16 1 :


394
2
392


432 :
6 :
426 :
*


31 :
31 :
31 :
31



31
31

31
31
31
31
31 :
31 :
31 :
31 :
31 :
31 :
31 :
31


1
2/
j/-2
1


57

57
57


Con:piled from official sources except as otherwise stated.


Net exports.
Less than 500,000 bushels.
Net eroorts of less than 500,000 bushels.







WB-36


Year : : : : : : : : : : : rop
begin-: July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.:-May : Juife: year
ning : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : aver-
July : : : : : : : : :e/


: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


93.2 94.4
101.0 104.2


1908
1909

1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919

1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939


90.0
114.0

97.1
83.5
94.4
79.2
76.7
104.6
100.0
224.5
203.8
219.6

242.9
108.5
99.8
89.6
105.8
140.3
127.7
127.3
118.1
101.6

70.6
36.3
35.6
86.9
78.8
76.4
94.1
112,8
60.8
55.7


99.6 105.4 111,4
105.0 104.8. 102.2


87.6 84,6
90.6 91.6
80.2 79,8
82.4 83.6
131.8 132.6
108.4:100.8
164.6:172.2
202.0 202.6
207,8 211.1
231.2. 230.3

148.2 140.4
107.0 117.0
104.4 106.0
98.0 98.8
169.8-164.0
155.5 146.0
122,8 120.9
116.2 .121.6


89,.6
101.2

97.4
83.8
87.8
77.1
84.9
100.8
119.2
219.3
205.0
211.4

225.4
103.0
92.6
86.4
116.8
150.4
125.1
123.5
95.2
110.0

74.0
35.4
38.5
74.7
89.6
80.8
104.8
99.4
50.7
54.5


84.2
96.1
80.0
84.0
135.6
100.6
213,0
205.1
;22,6
242.6

122.1
119.0
108.4
95.8
140.5
142.2
117.2
129.2


89.6
94.9


91.0
97.2

92.1
90.0
83.6
77.4
95.4
92.0
147.4
200.3
205.9
211.4

201.2
99.9
94.1
94.2
129.7
136.4
121.4
113.7
98.7
110.7

65.6
36.1
34.6
63.6
88.5
95.1
106.8
88.7
52.2


92.2
99.2

89.4
89.4
79.9
78.4
97.9
92.5
159.4
200.4
205.1
214.0

165.8
93.4
99.4
93.7
133.6
148.8
123.6
111.4
97.1
102.8

60.0
50.5
32.8
71.1
88.1
87.6
106.4
81.9
52.0


Note changes in. crop year averages 1908-18.
2 Preliminary. Includes unredeemed loans on wheat at


estimated average loan value.


Compiled from reports of the Agricultural Marketing Service, based on returns from
special price reporters. Monthly prices by States weighted by production to obtain
a price for the United States; average for the year obtained by weighting State
price averages for the crop-marketing season.


17 -

Table 14.- Average price per bushel of wheat received by farmers,-
United States, 1908-39


94.8
86.6
84.6
77.5
93.4
93.0
13383
205,2
205.7
207.6

216.5
103.4
89.2
91.0
114.2
144.4
117.7
119.2
.94.4
111.4

70.53
35.7
37.4
71.1
92.2
85.2
104.3
93.0
52.5
72.7


89.2
89.2
78.0
81.3
118,8
10814
157.6
201.6
206.2
233.8

149,2
95.2
104.6
96.7
162.1
158.1
122.2
115.2
98.5
107.5

59.1
44.1
32.9
69.4
89,.3
92.0
123.6
88.6
57.1


88,4
87.7
76.1
80.4
103.2
97.4
15513
201.4
204.5
223.4

146.4
93.0
103.2
94.5
141.1
153.7
122.8
113.9
98.2
107.3

61.3
44.1
31.6
67.3
90.6
89.0
114.5
85.6
53.6


59.2
43.1
44.8
68.7
90.2
85.4
126.6
75.0
57.8


104.2
101.3

58.7
44.0
32.3
72.0
87.9
91.1
124.9
86.6
56.9


104.7 99.8
91.9 93.4


58.3
44.2
34.5
70.9
85.5
89.5
123.2
80.3
56.7


119.7
98.8

85.4
101.2
81.8
84.2
135.6
101.2
247.2
203.0
229.8
250.8

119.0
118.8
108.2
96.8
149.1
142.1
123.2
144.3
90.1
87.5

59.9
42.4
59.0
69.5
87.8
81.6
118.3
71.4
63.0


122,2
96.4

85.3
100.9
82,0
80.6
117.2
96.5
234.3
202.8
225.2
256.0

119.8
109.6
100.8
98.5
152.7
138.9
130.1
132.0
86.8
87.9

51.9
37.3
58.7
78.9
77.3
79.9
108.9
69.7
62.5


96.7
99.1


90.8
86.9
80.7
79.4
97.4
96.1
143.4
204.7
205,0
216.3

182.6
103.0
96,6
92.6
124.7
143.7
121,7
119.0
99.8
103.6

67.1
39,0
38,2
74,4
84.8
83.2
102.6
96.3
2/54.7






WS-36


- 18 -.


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3 2 088llllllllll618573llllllll111111
3 1262 08861 8573


RYE PRODUCTION

The production of rye in the 20 countries for which reports are
available is estimated at about 913 million bushels (table 15). This is
about 3 million bushels above the total for these countries last year.
These 20 countries in 1938 produced about 85 percent of the estimated
world production. The 17 European countries reporting show an increase
of about 1 percent compared witn the 1938 production.

Table 15.- Rye: Production in specified countries, 1936-39

Country : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 : 1939

: 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.

United States ......: 25,319 49,830 55,039 40,834
Canada .............: 4,281 5,771 10.988 16,549
Total (2) ..... 29,600 55,601 6c. 027 57,383
Europe:
Bulgaria .........: 8,188 9.337 7,337 9,674
Estonia .......... : 6,044 8,327 7,403 8,031
Finland ..........: 12,134 16,982 14,507 12,755
Germany .......... : 290,793 272,296 1/356,000 2/369,310
Austria ..........: 18,610 16,330 23,373
Greece ............ 1,654 2,569 2,439 2,257
Hungary .......... : 28,114 24,325 31,677 2/ 36,510
Italy ............: 5,204 5,701 5,428 5,962
Lithuania ........ : 21,354 23,894 24.,555 25,707
Luxemburg ........: 449 392 507 549
Netherlands ......: 18,736 19,036 21,259 21,810
Norway ...........: 425 443 433 394
Poland ........... 250,536 221,949 285,551 3/300,382
Rumania ..........: 17,842 17,763 20,362 19,062
Spain ...............: 1,053 4/ 19,700 4/ 16,900 17,212
Sweden ...........: 13,838 16,250 15,933 15,275
Switzerland ......: 1,077 1,296 1,447 1,374
Yugoslavia .......: 8,002 8,2h43 8,941 9,637
Total (17).....: 721,053 6.-:5,338 844,112 855,901
Algeria ..........: 29 37 44 44
Total (20) .... 750,612 741,026 910,1S3 913,328


1/ Calculated. Includes estimate for the Sudetenland.
2/ Includes Austria and the Sudetenland.
New boundaries and, therefore, not strictly comparable
years.
4/ Estimated.


with previous




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