Wheat situation

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Material Information

Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00046

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Succeeded by:
Wheat outlook & situation


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Full Text



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington

WS-34 August 26, 1939


THE WHEAT S ITUAT ION
Including Rye and Flaxseed -

(Summer Outlook Issue)



: Farmers are now making plans for the seeding of :
: winter wheat to be harvested in 1939. This issue of
: The Wheat Situation, therefore, has been prepared with
: particular reference to the outlook for the wheat crop :
s to be seeded this fall.


Summary of the Wheat Outlook for 1940

The United States wheat acreage seeded for harvest in 1940 is

expected by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics to be about the same

as for the 1939 crop. World acreage is expected to remain close to present

high record levels. Unless world wheat acreage is adjusted downward or

yields per acre are small, very large world supplies will probably continue

during the 1940-41 season and any improvement in world prices would depend

upon improvement in demand the Bureau says. Wheat prices in the United States

are expected to continue to average above export parity as long as the Govern-

ment loan and export subsidy programs continue and world prices remain low.

The acreage allotted for seeding the 1940 crop under the Agricultural

Adjustment Act is 62 million acres. The allotment for the 1939 crop was 55

million acres and actual seedings amounted to 64.6 million acres. Large

seedings last year were discouraged by the inducements offered by the Agri-

cultural Adjustment programs, the decline in wheat prices last summer, and

the generally unfavorable wheat outlook at planting time. This year there

do not appear to be any circumstances which might induce growers to make




WS-34 2 -

important changes in acreage from last year. The seedings for the 1939 crop

were only slightly below the 66.9 million acres seeded in the 5-year period,

1929-33, during which acreages changed but little. If the total wheat-seed-

ings amount to about 67 million acres, and average yields per seeded acre

are obtained, production would amount to about 785 million bushels. This

is only about 100 million bushels more than average domestic disappearance.

Summary of Outlook for Wheat Harvested in 1939

Domestic wheat prices are somewhat higher than a month ago. They

have remained considerably above export parity as a result of only a moder-

ate sized United States crop, a large proportion of wheat being placed for

Government loan, and announcement of the export-aid program. The price of

No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kansas City for July 1939 was only 3 cents lower

than in July 1938, even though the price of Parcels at Liverpool was 44 cents

lower this July than a year earlier.

Prospective world wheat supplies I/ for the year beginning July 1,

1939 are now indicated to be about 160 million bushels more than a year ago.

World stocks of old wheat are estimated to be close to 600 million bushels

more than a year earlier. World wheat production is now estimated at about

4,130 million bushels, which is about 440 million bushels less than the crop

of last year. The crop in the Northern Hemisphere is indicated to be about

380 million bushels below the production last year. On the basis of weather

and conditions to date, a reduction.of about 60 million bushels is indicated

for the Southern Hemisphere countries.

A United States wheat crop of 731 million bushels was indicated as of

Aug. 1. This is about 20 million bushels larger than the average domestic

disappearance during the past 2 years, and about 45 million bushels larger

I/ All ref-rcnccs t- world production and stocks in this report exclude
the U.S.S.R. and China, except where noted.





WS-34 3 -

than the 10-year (1928-37) average. Domestic disappearance may amount to

about 700 million bushels. No definite goal of wheat exports has been de-

termined, in view of the pending world wheat conference and the need for

later and more complete data on the wheat situation. If exports should turn

out to be near the 10-year (1928-37) average of about 70 million bushels,

a crop of this size would cause the carry-over on July 1, 1940 to be reduced

about 40 million bushels from the 254 million bushels estimated for July 1,

1939.

Summary of the Rye and Flaxseed Situations

A United States rye crop of 41 million bushels was indicated by

August 1 conditions, compared with 55 million bushels harvested last year.

The August estimate was decreased by 0.7 million bushels compared with the

estimate of July 1. The carry-over of rye is estimated at 23 million bushels,

compared with 10 million bushels last year, making total supplies about the

same as in 1938. The apparent disappearance of rye in 1938-39 was about 41

million bushels, compared with about 39 million bushels in 1937-38. Exports

of United States rye in 1939-40 are expected to be small. In 1938-39 exports

totaled less than 1 million bushels.

The domestic supply of flaxseed for 1939-40, including July 1 carry-

over and August 1 indicated production, is 18.0 million bushels compared with

10.4 million bushels last year. A supply of this size would be the largest

in 9 years. Total world supplies of flaxseed were estimated to be slightly

smaller on August 1 this year than a year earlier, increased supplies in the

United States being slightly more than offset by decreases in other countries,

The sharp decline in flaxseed prices since the middle of June reflects the

increase in the size of the 1939 domestic crop compared with that of 1938.










WHEAT: SOURCES OF U. S SUPPLY. 1923-39


BUSHELS- ----
SMILLIONSI
1,400 ----

1.200 --

1.000

800 '

600- -- -

400 -

200 .- -

0


i -


Production
Total supply Imports -
{ .Stocks, July 1 "


/-


-. -
''| 7711



liVA


1923-24 '25-26 '27-28 '29-30 31-32 '33-34 '35-36 '37-38 '39-40
YEAR BEGINNING JULY NEG. 31s 0


'IMPORTS FOR DOMESTIC UTILIZATION


'AUGUST ESTIMATE
Figure 1


A 192.-36 INCLUDES SOME NEW WHEAT


united States wheat produetin tin 1939 was materially lss than in 1938 or 1937. Omrr-ovr stooke
after resnhing a low point in 1937. hae Inoreaeud in the past 2 yar. The csrry-over of 254 milllao
bushels in 1939 s 3k4 million bushels larger than the average during the 10-yer period 1929-38.

Wheatis lppyl. distribution, and disappearanoo in oontinental United States. 1923-39

S2Stocks July I s
Ye sn merchats rt
et m ills and lt
st On II countrysoernIaI s*vators s a se (nflo r a Stal
J ly fmls 11 s stocks. 1/snd stored. p in lu'lded) a supply
I sa itor others t o te I
I 3 I t I S t I
a 1,000 1.000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1.000 1,000 1,000
I saboll bushbels bushels bthblv bahhle bunbshealst bthsl bInhali
Vita now wheat In oammercial end merchant mill stock
1923 35.2)9 37,117 28,95 31.000 132.312 79,s482 14.578 906.372
192 29.39 36.626 38,112 33,000 137.0s T s8.617 304 979.00o
1925 a 28.638 25.287 28,900 25,576 lOs,4t 668.700 1,74T7 778,b8
1926 2 27.071 29.501 16.148 27.505 100.225 832.213 77 932.515
1927 26.640 21.776 21.052 40.038 109.906 875.059 188 98 .753
1925 1 19.588 19.277 38.587 31-.920 112.372 914.373 91 1.026.836
1929 45.106 lt.546 90.r2 51,279 228.373 823.217 53 1.051.43
1930 I 6,216 60.166 o19.327 59.170 2sss79 8s6,81o0 35 1.175.703
1931 i 37.867 30 22 203.967 I1.202 313.2s 91T1.674 7 1.25).969
1932 93.769 T.55 168.05 71.714 375.173 756.927 10 1.132,410
1933 82.,82 64.296 123.712 107,052 377.942 551.63 15 929.778
193 62.516 8,150 8o.5~ 83.114 274.328 526.393 15.69 16.290
1935 t 444.339 31.729 21.951 19. 524 A 17.5143 626 .34 3.617 aSs.50
1936 13.988 22.296 25,202 50.990 142,076 626,766 34.455 803.297
1937 21.51 11.942 16.197 52.899 102,.s9 875.67 663I 979.199
1938 59.113 31.186 28.333 54.214 172.(46 930,81 26 1.103.893
1939 90.838 38.291 1.,334 85,029 29 5.192 3/731.432 1026,.924
Vith only old wheat in all atoaki positions
1937 21.851 11.92 9.022 40.399 83.214 875.676 634 959.524
1938 59.113 31.186 22.190 6 40.791 153.280 930.801 246 1,084327
1939 s 90.838 38.291 64,103 / 61.054 254.286 5/731.432 985.718
1/ 1923 to 1926 rad.treots. o*zalulin country ievator stocks. 1923-36 Include some nw wheat.
I/ Stocks in merchant *lls and elevators 1923 and 1924 **tiated in bsecae of aotnal figuress 1925 to
1938. Bureau of Consus figures raised to represent ll merchant sills. Stored for others 1923 to 1929
estimated in abseno of actual figures; 1930 to 1938, Burmal of Oensus figures raised to reprount all
erchant ill. 1923-36 inolbde some new whset.
3/ Fro reports of Foreign and Doesotio Comeroe of the United States. Imports Include full-duty wesat,
wheat paying a duty of 10 percent ad valorm, and flow in terms of wheat; and ezxlade flow free for
export as follow 42.742 bushelI in 1935-36; 14.363 bushels in 1936-37T and 93,737 bushels in 1937-38.
SInclade d re vhbeat returned from Nontreal oestiuted at 1.500.000 bushels.
Iy dioat o Agat 1, 1939.
For 1937 exclude now wheat estimated at 12.500,000 bushels; for 1938 e*oludes 13.423,000 bushels, amd
ftr 1939, 23.975.000 bahels reported as now wheat by Burean of Ceons.


e m











WHEAT: DISTRIBUTION OF U S SUPPLY. 1923-38


26 27-28 29-30 '31-32 33-34
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
*1924-J7 INCLUDES SOME NEW WHEAT
4 INCLUDES FLOUR MILLED FROM DOMESTIC WHEAT ONLY


US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


Fig we 2


NEG 31821 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


IWhet exports of stat 100 million bushel* for the year beginning July 1, 1938 were made possible
yi t "subsidy prerra. Yeb qlantity of beat fed in 1938-39 was the largest in our history. his item
largely seooeate for the variations is total domestic duI pparraoe.


Whbat: qpply. distribution, and disappeaace in continental United States. 1923-38
a Dietributi.
TYO 'xorts and shitpmento I/ Domestic disappearance 1
begmialae r shipment l t s1Peed (fedtfoode ad 1a 2 Stocks
JPuly bI xpot ; porter 3 (foar I Ion fer loomleroiali 4 June 30
I (what floor aSlli d )d) otl, I ead sof hbeat : foods I fOtal
Sonly) wheat g/ I t roer) 23/
1 1,00 0 1000 1.000 1,000 00 00 1,000 1.000 1,000 1.000
oIrthol bAhela bistel bnuhels bushels bPlhol bushels bushels buhel
With new wheat Ia commercial and merchant mill stooke
1923 7s.793 67.213 2.973 146.979 74.111 69.670 476.525 620.306 137,os7
1924 s 195.490 59.478 2.71, 257.839 79.895 55.727 477.146 612.768 10,11o1
1925 s 63.189 31 2.741 97,358 78.928 28.214 474.223 581.265 100.225
1926 1s 6.250 4.761 3 3.082 209.093 83.26 34.261 496.391 613.916 1095.06
1927 15.999 45.228 2.692 193.919 8.B61s W.507 5.4,091 678.462 112.372
1928 103.114 38.106 3.172 14.392 3.663 56.566 13.842 654,071 228.373
1929 93.175 4.179 2.983 143.337 53.353 51.769 177,305 619,427 288.879
1930 a 76365 3663 2,850 115.278 80.886 157.1s 509.063 77.17 313.288ss
1931 96.521 26376 2.757 125.654 o0.019 173.991 W.802 753.862 375.473
1932 a 20.887 10.979 3.023 31.889 83.513 124.912 51.154 719.579 377.942
1933 s 18.800 6.798 2.779 28.377 77.s32 72.261 476.980 627.073 274.328
1931 3.019 7.512 2 .73 13.3314 s2,2 83.700 h89.,513 655.433 147.543
1935 5 311 3.896 2.908 7.115 87 555 83.168 wia.590 659.313 142,076
1936 3 3.16 6.099 009 12,276 96.593 5,.272 503.267 668132 102.m9
1937 8 3.7-47 16.322 3.321 103.390 94.533 112.860 95.570 702.963 172.846
1938 84.539 22.059 2.886 109.4 77.987 131.643 419.287 69.,917 295.492
rith only old wheat in all stocks position
1937 87.747 16.322 3.321 103.390 94.533 112.860 495.461 702.854 153.280
1938 a 84.539 22.059 2,8s6 109.484 77.987 131.643 510.927 720.557 254.286
l/ Fr. report of foreign and Doestio Comeree of the United States. experts include only flow mad
from demestio wheat; 1923-35 **tlated on baelo of total exports less wheat imported for willing in bond
and eport adjusted for chances in earry-over; beginning 1935 figures for exports of floar wholly from
United Stateo eat.
&/ Sipmeate are to Almak. Bawli, Paerto Rice, and Virgin I lands (Virgin Islands prior to December
31. 1934 lonlundd with domestic exports).
Balantdin item.
9 For Individual items see supply section.


BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)
1.400


1,200


1,000


800


600


400


200


0












ALL WHEAT: ACREAGE SEEDED. YIELD PER ACRE.
AND PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1919-39
T. T


ACAfs


SEEDED ACREAGE
......... .


so

75


70

65

60

55
BuSHELS5

IS


7
BUSHELSI


1.000 -


600 --

S g, 895391
400 L i
1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 19?9 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
-,us-1 Figturei 3
The total wheat areage seded4 for harvest in 1939 w*s saterially
leoe than the acreage for the 1937 aad 1938 crops, but it was only slightly
below the 66.9 million oare* *se*dd in the 5-year period. 1929-33, dtiin
which areages chaane but little.


All Wheats Acreage seeded, yield per aore, nd
production. United States. 1919-39

I I Tield
Year Seeded per I Prodtion
of : acreage 1 edd
harvet | a acre
S 1000 1.000
ares Buhel bshksls

1919 TT. 77 12.3 952.097

1920 67,977 12.4 833.277

1921 67,681 12.1 ss. 964

1922 67.163 12.6 846.649

1923 64,510 11.8 759. 42

1924 a 55.706 15.1 siT.617

1925 61,73s 10.8 668.700

1926 60.712 13.7 832.213

1927 65.661 13.3 8750,59

1928 71.152 12.9 914,373

1929 66.sbo 12.3 823.217

1930 67,150 13.2 s86.470

1931 65.998 14.2 94,1674

1932 65.913 11.5 756,927

1933 68.485 8.1 551.683

1934 63.562 8.3 526.393

1935 69.207 9.1 626.344

1936 a 73.724 8.5 626,766

1937 8 1.072 10.s 875.676

1938 a 79,870 11.7 930, 8o

1939 a 64.595 11.3 731,432

/ Prlliminary.











WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE SEEDED. YIELD PER ACRE.
AND PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1919-39
ACRES F -- ts -
i rLS ACREAGE SEEDED PRECEDING FALL
55 1 __ -


s50 x- -


..I ... I !


30
BUSHEILS -
SYIELD PER SEEDED ACRE
e _. .. .__ ._..-.-1-_L ... _






4 -4



800 L

PRODUCTION I



40o .- -




Iag. 31597
00 _: .:_
1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
Sf*"L"flar' Figre 14

e viater weat acreage seeded for the 1939 arp. 46.2 lmllion
buahele. was oly slightly larger than ti sverage of 4.5 aillllo acres
for the .-y ar period 1929-33. although materially le t tha %be smea
seeded for te 1937 ad 1938 crops.


Winter Wheat, Areaoe needed, yield pr acr*, and
production. United States, 1919-39

T. I 3 Yp oer
of eeded Production
harvest aee meIad

1,000 1,000
S rm Buashelt burhals
1919 a 51.391 t14.6 748.1460
1920 45.505 13.5 613.227

921 45,49 13.3 602,793
1922 474115 12.1 571. 59

1923 415.08 12.2 555.299
1921 38.63s 1'4. 573.563

1925 40o.922 9.8 00,619
1926 40.604 15.6 631,607
1927 a 4.13 12.4 541.18

1928 1.431 12*0 579,066

1929 43.967 13.3 586.239

1930 45.032 14.1 633,605
1931 45.647 18.1 825.396
1932 43.371 12.0 491.795

1933 44,445 8.5 376,518
1934 44, 585 9. 437,963

1935 1 47,064 9.9 465.319
1936 49.765 10.4 519.874

1937 57.656 11.9 685,824
1938 56.355 12.2 686.637

1939 1/ 46.173 11.9 S. 710
1 Prellslinar.-














WHEAT: STOCKS IN MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES
AND AFLOAT, AS OF JULY 1. 1922-39
BUSHELS -

800
I MILLIONS 1 I

E United Kingdom and afloat*
700 ----- Australia- ------- Fl -------- -


1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938
SINCLUDFS STOCKS IN UNITED KINGDOM PORTS. SUPPLIES AFLOAT TO NEG 21335
UNITE D KINGDOM, CONTINUE AND FOR ORDERS
A INCLUDES CANADIA/ WHEAT iN UN/irF) S TA7F
INCLUDES UN TFD STATFS WHEAT IN CANADA fi e 5


The large increase in stocks on July 1, 1939 was the result of the very large
Stocks in Argentina, the United States. and Canada all increased sharply.


crops in 1938.


Wheats Stocks in major exporting countries and afloat, as of about July 1, 21Q2-39

:United States Canadian United Tot
Tea grain 1/ grain I/ Argentina i atralia Kingdom : Total
SMillion b. Million Million bu. Million bu. Million bu Million bu.

1922 : 110 48 82 29 61 3
1923 : 134 67 1 56 3r2
1921 : 137 67 79 39 62 38
1925 ll 4h 73 o 51 323
1926 o01 63 85 28 53 330
1927 111 67 89 46 59 72
1928 115 128 107 43 61 "5
19 : 232 152 155 47 61 647
1930 294 154 70 57 14 619
1931 328 158 94 77 56 713
1932 391 161 73 58 56 739
1933 382 238 98 7o 44 832
193k 274 222 113 101 48 788
1935 : 148 226 105 67 38 584
1936 142 155 72 52 37 458
1937 103(83) 51 59 53 45 311 (291)
1938 a 173(154) 36 7)4 64 49 396 (377)
1939 296(255) 118 196 64 67 741 (700)

Compiled as follows: United States Stocks on farm. in country mills and elevators. commercial. in
merchant milla and elevators. and stored for others by merchant mills.
Canada 1922 1923. oarry-over August 31, plus net exports and estimated retention of flour during
July and August. 1921 to date. carry-over July 31, plus net exports and estimated retention of flour
for July.
Argentina Crry-owr on December 31. plus exports and estimated domestic consuption, July 1 to December
31.
Australia 1922 1924, exports only plus estimated domestic consumption, July 1 to December 31. 1QP9
to date, carry-over on December 1. plus net exports and estimated domestic consumption, July 1 to
November 30.
./ Includes United States wheat in Canada. ?/ Includes Canadian wheat in United States. 3/ Includes
stocks in United Kingdom ports. supplies afloat to United Kingdom. Continent, and for orders.











WHEAT: ESTIMATED ACREAGE. YIELD. AND PRODUCTION. WORLD
( EXCLUDING SOVIET RUSSIA AND CHINA ). 1923-38


- ACREAGE *- --.


300




250




200
BUSHELS

I s

14

13 i-


BUSHILS
su$..cs

4S500



4.000


500oo .


I MNeg. 34555
3,000 4 .
1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937
*CII* L 1 *Ct ^ S !1.%( ICf$ T !M i S Ell D5 j A& A *D A AI V* LI.I.AVPI
fI Mue 6
World wheat acreage has been steadily increasing over a period
of years. World production was not large in 1931-36 because yields
per acre were considerably below average. In 1937. with more normal
fields, production wvae gain large, and in 1938, with very high yields
per acre, the largest world wheat crop in history was produced.


r-- 1


Wheatl Ietimated acrege, yild and production.
world (ezoludiag orviet Russia and China)
1923-3s

year Yield I
of Areage g/ : per Production
harvest i/ l are
Million Million


1923 236 15.0 3.535

1924 229 13.7 3.143

1925 24 14.1 3.396

1926 245 14.3J 3.04

1927 25 14.7 3.663

1928 266 15.1 4.005

1929 259 13-. 3.52

1930 a 266 115 3.894

1931 a 266 14.6 3.577

1932 272 143 3.876

1933 274 14.0 3.84

1934 267 13.3 3.561

1935 269 13.4 3.602

1936 3/ 27 12.9 3.578

1937 287 13.5 3.863

1938 / / 287 15.9 4.572

/ Refers to year of harvest in Northern Hemisphere, although It includes
data for the Southern Hemisphere where the harvest ends early the following
year.
2/ Acreage harvested except the United States, Canada and Argentina.
I/ Preliminary.






10


WHEAT: WORLD SUPPLY AND PRICE,1923-39


SUPPLY
(BUSHELS )
(BILLIONS )

5.0




4.6



4.2



3.8




3.4

is


PRICE
(CENTS PER
BUSHEL)

130




110



90




70




50


YEAR BEGINNING JULY
AVERAGE BRITISH PARCELS DEFLATED BY STATIST INDEX NUMBERS (1910-14 100)
4 PRELIMINARY mi ...


World wheat supplieo for the year begilnni July 1, 1939 are expectedd to be the largest on record,
and world what prices have aeolined to very low levels.


Wheat: Istimated world supply, disappearance and prices, 1922-38
I : I : $ British
s Production 2/ I ret : tal tParcele.
Tear Stocks Casd. 3 exports f Total t deP- : average
beginning: about Utd Argen- I rOpe Al S from s apply : pear- : price
beginnig 1 stae t a Aron,- 'All World
1/ : : luding other 1 bushel
U.S.S.R.
: ; tralia a : : : ; /
sMNil. bt KMil... b*. Nil. n. Nil. bb. Mil. b*. Kil. n i. *il. bnu .r.. b* Nil, btt 92At
1922 3 647 147 705 1o9o5 616 3.218 1 .866 3.289 92
1925 : 577 759 847 1.26 666 3.55 1 133 3,410 Sr
1924 t 723 s82 619 1,0 3.13 3.66 3.293
1925 573 669 701 1,bob 622 3.396 27 3.996 3.343 0o
1926 653 932 798 1215 659 3.904 9 2o6 3.519 10o8
1927 7 67 s75 so 1,275 653 3.653 5 4375 3,624 104
1928 t 751 914 1.076 1.4o9 606 o05 --- 4.756 3.736 91
1929 : 1.020 23 595 1,.i9 715 3.582 7 4,609 3,666 101
1930 s 943 886 867 160 Ta1 3.894 112 4.949 3.903 75
1931 1.046 942 732 1.436 767 3,877 70 4,993 3.950 76
1932 1.043 757 898 1.490 731 3.876 17 4.936 3.792 78
193.1W 552 745 1.746 805 3.848 34 5.026 3.833 70
1934 1.193 526 650 1.548 837 3.561 2 4.756 3,o03 79
1935 953 626 568 1.576 832 3.602 29 4.54 3.818 s8
1936 766 627 620 1.48s1 O 3.578 4 4.34 3,809 105
1937 : 539 876 553 1.550 88 3.Z863 39 4. 1 3.823 105
1938 5/ 618 931 41 1.842 ,g 9.572 37 5.227 4.037 68

f/ Ixzoldr s U.S.S.R. and China. g/ Tear of harvest. Harvests of the Northern Heatmphere countries are cor -
bined with those of the Southern HRemsphere whchIb immediately follow thus the crop harvested in the northern
Hemisphere countries in 1938 is combined with the Southern Remisphere harvest which begins late in 1935 and
ends early in 1939. 3/ Ixclades production and stocks in U.S.S.B. and China bat inoludes net exports from
U.S.S.R. 4/ Deflated by Statilt Index (1910-14 s 100) and oorerted at par. 5/ Prelllmnary.
Production and export figures from official souroe. Prices compiled from daily prices in the London Grain.
Seed and Oil Reporter.


a-


NGC. 20691








11

WHEAT: PRICES AT LIVERPOOL AND KANSAS CITY, AND
NET EXPORTS FROM UNITED STATES. 1923-39


Liverpool par
Liverpool parcels ------ --- -


CENTS PER
BUSHEL
200




160





120




80




40



20

LIVERPOOL
PARCELS

-20


-40

BUSHELS
MILLIONS)


400

300


200

100

0

I!


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AIIICULTUR


'37-38 39-40


NEG. 34547 BUREAU OF AGRICULtURAL ICONOMICS


Prospective supplies of wheat for export and carry-over in the
United. Stats are below average, and with the continuation of the wheat
loan and export-aid program, domestic wheat prices may be expected to
continue relatively high compared with export parity.


IMPORTS --
I I I I I I I I IL- -7
923-24 '25-26 '27-28 '29-30 '31-32 '33-34 '35-36
YEAR BEGINNING JULY










Vheatz Arrar e price per btishl, Liverpool and ansas City. and spredL between these prices, by months. 1922-39

I Parcel* o. 2 Bard I Martin Parcels I No. 2Bard I Margin Parels l'o. 2 Bard I Margin
Month : Lwterpool I Winter Ian~ea City relative Liverpool I Winter. Zuaxes City relative Liverpool Winter, I ianas City relative
S 1/ ILn.sA City, to Iverpool / ansas Cityi to Liverpool 1/ lan-azs City: to Liverpool
Ca Cent.snt Ownt Cents g Cenm gsCnIls ts


July
*Ag.
Sept.
Nct.
wor.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June

July
Amg.
Art.
Sept.
Oct.
oI,.
Dec.
Jea.
yeb.
Mar,
Apr.
Mary
June

July

Sept.
Oct.
Ncr,
De.,
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Mary
June

July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.

OKn.
Apr.
May
June

July
Aug.
Septi.
Oct.
low.
Dec.

7eb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June


Complied a* follovet KnLsa City: lKanu City Grain Markeot Rviw. IAverag of daily prices weighted by carlot *s*le. Llverpool Bromowll's
Corn Trade News. Simple average of daily price*. Converted from shilliag per parcel of 4W0 pounds to cents per bushel of 60 pounds as follows
July 1922 Dec. 1925. current monthly average rates of w chuen. Jan. 1926 Aug. 1931. at par. Par (Shilling) 24.3328 cents.
EBpt. 1931 to date, current monthly average rates of exheba e.


bWhat Suppliee for export and carry-over. United States, 1923-Jb

TIr liI S II Tear I Net I inorc 11 Tear Hot s
beginning l exports or I at end I beginning I exports or I at and It beginning I exports or I at end
July imports I of yrar II July I Imports I of year I July I import Ia of year
I s II I 100 ubel b II 1 t buhl
S*.~ 131.428 137,057 t 1929 140,301 288.879 t 1Q -1 3.410 142,076
14L 6 2954,664 108.401 It 1930 112.074 313)23s ai t 9b i ..i' 53.214
'.f r 92.570 100.225 to 1931 122.590 15.'i3 s 97 **- 153. ,
A 1b )'05.934 109.506 19)2 31, 377.,942 at 193 2.
19217 l1,Y09 112.372 is 1913 25 274,328 I 199
192 i 41I ?22. 53 II 14) 5.035 141.543 1940
1 it It1
e lml. ilgt n,.sI..l, i.al ,.lrI. l 2 UI., IFr 111,0 1eqrtl.


r 1922-23 192.-. 192 2.
S 14.5 112.7 -2.1 122.9 95.8 -27.1 114.8 1.5 -20.3
129.1 104.3 .S 119.6 100.6 -19.0 151.5 119.0 -32.5
122.0 104.5 -17.5 118.9 109.1 9.8 154.7 119.5 -35.2
1' 113 -21.0 120. u11.9 8.9 173.8 136.9 -36.9
1'-.9 117.4 -19.5 118.9 0ls.a -10.1 176.3 1' .1 -33.2
140. a 117.4 -23.4 117.2 108.? 8.5 182.9 lbl.b -21.3
137.8 114.5 -23 121.0 112.9 .1 1993 181.5 -17.l
135.7 115.1 -20.6 124.4 10.9 -13.5 204.8 11.2 -23.6
S 14..7 115.6 -19.1 119.6 10s.7 -10.9 191.8 170.9 -20.
S 14.7 120.4 -20.3 19.6 104.3 -15.3 170.3 150.9 -19.
138.6 116.2 -22.6 121.2 106.3 -1 .9 14.2 162.9 -21.3
131.4 104.2 -2T.2 125.8 108.1 -17.7 178.3 160.2 -18,1
1925-26 1926-27 1927-28
516s.4 153.9 -14.5 166.9 136.5 .-3. 161.4 135.6 .a
172.2 163.9 8.3 162.4 131.0 31. 159.5 135.3 -24.2
S 58.9 157.5 1.4 159.6 132.0 -27.6 150.9 130.6 -20.3
48.5 158.2 9.7 1.713 13s.6 -32.7 19.4 12.2 -1.2
S ;.4.3 162.5 1.5 170.9 136.9 -34.0 147.0 130.6 -16.4
184.7 171.6 -13.1 163.5 137.7 -25.8 147.5 131.5 -15.7
iro.6 178.1 2.5 160.2 137.2 -23.0 149.5 132.7 -16.8
175.1 171.0 4.1 157.1 135.4 -21.7 149.8 132.6 -13.2
160.8 160.5 0.3 155.5 132.8 -22.7 151.0 138.2 -12.5
170.9 150.1 -u11. 155.9 130.7 -25.2 159.0 152.4 6.6
173.1 154.5 -18.3 164.6 142.1 -22.5 155.1 160.o 4.9
16s.8 152.9 -15.9 165.2 1164.1 -21.1 146.9 147.5 0.6
1925-29 1929-30 1930-31
I 140.5 120.4 -20.4 140o. 125.3 -15.5 Io0.3 so -214.3
125.8 105.9 -19.9 142.1 122.6 -19.5 105.6 mo.6 -25.0
125.5 107.5 -18.3 137.4 124.4 -13.0 91.4 77.6 -13.8
125.6 109.8 -18.8 136.0 121.7 -14.3 55.7 7*4.4 .3
128.9 112. 4 -16.5 127.4 118.7 8.7 80.6 69.0 -11.6
126.3 111.2 -15.1 140.8 120.7 -20.1 3.5 70.6 2.Q
130.6 114.5 -16.1 19.5 1.9 -20.9 6.1 69.5 .
134.7 118.3 -16.4 124.6 112.6 -12.0 70.2 69.3 0.9
131.4 115.8 -15.6 117.5 102.3 -15.2 67.0 70.2 3.2
124.9 110.5 -14.4 120.1 101. -18.7 70.7 73.0 2.3
115.7 100.6 -15.1 114.6 99.1 -15.5 72.2 3.1 0
116.5 105.0 -11. 109.9 as.7 -21.2 66.6 68.2 -
1931-32 192.-33 1933-34
1 62.0 43. -18.2 53.9 4.9 9.0 79.2 S.o0 18.8
S 52., 42.7 -10.1 57.4 47.7 9.7 67.3 9.T7 22.4
53.0 43.1 9.9 59.2 4.0 .11.2 72.8 87.1 14.3
.3 47.5 54.7 45.2 95 6.5 3. 22.5
66.9 5.6 .3 2.0 42.6 9. 68. *l.l 15.e
'.t 52.4 5.1 .6 41.8 6.8 65.I go.4 15.0
A.i 52.6 3.5 2 43.6 -6.6 69.3 s44 15.1
59.9 53. 6.1 7.2 43.7 3. 66.2 85.0 1.
6 51.2 -124 47.5 41 0 67.0 2.0 15.0
63.7 53.2 -10.5 51.7 60.4 8.7 68.0 77.7 9.7
61.3 53.6 7.7 61.0 70.0 9.0 66.7 55.7 19.0
S 54.7 .6 9.1 62.7 75.9 1. 2 67.1 89.1 22.0
19A,1L5 1935-36 1936-.7
76.1 93.2 17.1 50.6 99.2 18.6 99.9 111.0 11.1
93.9 106.6 12.7 86.0 04. 18.1 115. 122.0 6.7
85.-8 10.5 21.7 91.2 u5.1 23.9 113. 122.1 S.5
76.7 102.2 25.5 98.6 U9.0 0.4 119.3 122.0 2.?
S 76.0 101.8 .5 86.3 U2.6 26.3 115,1 121.9 6.6
8 0.8 104.2 23- 93.1 110.8 17.7 128.6 134.2 5.6
S 1.3 100.9 22.6 99.2 112.6 13.4 132.4 138.0 5.6
76.0 99.6 23.6 91.4 110.0 18.6 12z. 136.5 11.5
1 so.2 96. 16.6 92.4 105.9 13.5 13.1 6 15.6 2.5
80.0 104, 6 24.6 89.1 102.0 12.9 149. lo. 9.
S 4.0 95.8 14.8 86.8 94.9 5.1 11. 12.0 9.
79.0 s7.7 L.7 85.9 96.0 10.1 133.4 120.8 12.6
S1937-38 193-39 1939
1 l.1 122.5 -20.6 98.2 70.0 -28.2 54.0 66.7 12.7
1"-. 111.8 -23.0 84.7 65.5 -19.2
'1b." 109.5 -26.5 79.0 6.7 -133
137.2 106.0 -31.2 73 6.7 8.7
-41.5 66.5 63 32
lo. 3 .' F.r 59.9 6.9 7.0
11 ,. 102.7 ... 61. 70.9 .1
12. 99.6 -30.2 64.7 69.2 .
o109. 91.5 -18.0 57.5 68.7 11.2
107.7 84.6 -23.1 60.6 69.6 9.0
99.0 79.7 19 63.6 75.7 12.1
100.7 Fr.. -2.0 64.2 70.9 6.7

i wr*J 1 LhUT carTg Lo,.


Ju:.y
kug.
Sept.
Oct.

Dec.
Jan.

Mar.
Apr.
May
June

Pw -j.






WS-Z4


- 13 -


OUTL'COOK FCO,. 1940 rV7..T .OP

B.A,',. C;T 2/ The acreage seeded to --'!.cat for harvest in i'."
in t. *, Uiited States was 65.7 million acres, 'lich rqpres nts a
slight rLductior from the aiv-r.re of 66.9 million acres for the
r'ri.:, 1929-:: during which acrcagtes ch ,.- but littlee (fir-
ures 3 aind 4). However, the acreage seeded for harvest in 1 9
represented a very large reduction frc- that seeded for the 1cZ7
and 1938 crops, when 81.1 and 79.9 million acres woCr secdcd,
respectively -- the lirge:cst in the history of the country.

World wheat acrea-e 3/ has been steadily incre-isin:: over a
period of years (figure 6T. In 1937 ?rv I'..25 it was the lar1---st
on record. World production -/ was not -ir,-. in 1934-36, how-
ever, because yields per acre were considerably below av,.r-:ce.
In 1957, with iore nearly normal yields, production was again
lar.-.:, '.c in 1. with very high yields per acre, the largest
world crop in history was produced.

World trade in wheat has declined sharply since the peak
y'.r of 1928-29, largely as the result of drastic restrictions
on imports and increased production in major importing countries.
In the early part of this period exports from the United States
declined with those from other surplus-producing countries. Dur-
ing the period 1934-36, small crops in the United States (the re-
sult of abnormally low yields per seeded acre) were followed by
net imports (filure 8 and table 10). World wh. t and flour ship-
ments in 1937-38 were about 500 million bushels and in 193---9
were about 600 million bushels comp'ired with over 900 million
bushels in the peak year of 1928.

The acreage allotted for seeding the 1940 crop under the Agricultural
Adjustment Act is 62 million n acres. The allotment for the 1939 crop wJas 55
million acres, and actual seedings amounted to 64.6 -illion acres. Large
seedint-s last year were discouraged by the inducements offer-i by the Agricul-
tural Adjust:~rint prCogrLs, the decline in wheat prices last sum..r, an. the
generally unfavorable wheat outlook at planting time. This year there do not
aroear to be any circuristances which r:i;;:.t induce r'ro'.'?r: to make important
ch-inges in acreage from last year. The seedi. for the 1.:9 crop were only
slightly below the 66-.9 million acres seeded in the 5-y ar period, 1-'9-33,
during which acreag,-s cah-r.n.d but little.

If the total wheat s, ,-dings amount to about 67 million acres, -~n the
20 year (1919-38) -ve-r '.' yields per sJ ded acre of 11.74 bushels are obtain- :,
production would total about 785 million bushels. This would be only about

2/ Sec lso ba-kground statements on p 1ges 15 -n' 19.
5/ All refer._nces to world acreage, yield, production, and stocks in this re-
port xclud.: the U.S.S.R. and China.




WS-i 4


- 14 -


100 million bus-.els more than the 10-year (1929-38) average domestic disappear-
ance (figure 2). If exports am-ount to about 70 million bushels, the 10-year
avera,'e (no forecast of exports is implied), the carry-over on June 30, 1941
would be increased by only about 30 million bushels. Large carry-over stocks
of -illir. wheat in prospect for July 1, 1940 a.:sure ample supplies by classes
for the crop year beginning at that time.

The annual average yields per seeded acre in the United States usually
vary between 10 and 14 bushels. If seedings should amount to about 67 million
acres, a 10-bushel yield would resuLlt in a now crop sormew.hat less than annual
domestic disa-rr.:aranc. On the other hand, a yield of 14 bushels would result
in a crop materially above domestic disappearance and export probabilities and
would add to the carr"-over stocks. In the latter cv.nt the United States
:ar.y-over at the close of the 1940-41 marketing season, even after allowing
for exrorts of as much as 100 million bushels, might be about 375 to 400 nil-
lion bij.:Lels, or between 125 and 150 million bushels more than on July 1, 1939.

The present world acreage of approximately 287 million acres is about
17 -illion acres, or atout 6 percent, above that necessary with average yields
per acre, to produce a crop equal to the 5-year (1933-37) average annual dis-
apcearance of about 3,815 :illlion bushels (fig. 7). World yields per acre
have fluctuated within a very narrow range, since wide variations in various
regions of the world have been largely compensating. In most years the range
is only about one-half bushel above or below the 14-bushel average. During
the 15 years, 1924-38, yields were lowest in 1936 when they averaged 12.9
bushels and highest in 1938 when they were 15.9 bushels (fij. 6).

Unless the world wheat acreage is adjusted do-wnward or yields per acre
are small, very large world supplies will probably continue to be burdensome
during the 1940-41 season, and any improve'-ent in world prices, as reflected
at Liverpool, would depend upon improvement in demand. Wheat prices in the
United States are expected to continue to average above export parity as long
as the Govcr!-Lmr:,t loan and export subsidy programs continue.

Production in excess of domestic disappearance, which includes wheat
for feed (fiiar'. 2), must either be exported or go to enlarge the domestic
carry-over (figure 8). In 1957 production in the United States was large
(figure 8), and about 100 million bushels were *:x;orted, resulting in an in-
crease of about 70 million bushels in the c:rr-:.-over (figure 2). Large scale
exports in 1937-38 resulted from the small world carry-over in other countries
and small crops in Canada and Argentina. In 19c3 production in the United
States was 1,agin large, .nd exports 1lair totaled about 100 million bushels,
rcsulti,- in an increase of about 100 million bushels in the carry-over. Pro-
duction in other countries was also large in 1938, however, and the large-
scale exports in that year were possible only as the result of the cpr ration
of the xort subsidy program of the Federal Government. 1:ith the prosp., ts
of lar". carry-over stocks in importinr.- countries on July 1, 1940, together
with the likelihood that import restrictions and the acrei ,- seeded to wheat
will not ce :.:' much, it is not probable that world trade in wheat will be
ar.. in 1940-41. Accordingly, wheat -ai, flour exports from the United States
cornpirabl,: in size with those, of the last 2 :,t.ars would not be possible except
;., Govcernment assistance.





wS-34


- 15 -


THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION FOR THE 1939 CROP

BACKGROUND.- Total world supplies of wheat increased
sharply from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of
increased acreage (figures 7 and 9). 4/ From 1934 to
1936 world supplies declined, following successive years
of small yields and increased world demand. Supplies
increased slightly in 1937. With the return of more
normal yields on the large acreage, supplies in 1938 were
again large the largest on record up to that time.

Total world shipments of what averaged 751 million
bushels for the period 1923-37, reached a peak of 913
million bushels in the year beginning July 1928, and then
declined sharply, largely as a result of the measures
taken by importing countries to reduce the use of foreign
wheat. For the year beginning July 1, 1938, world ship-
ments were 598 million bushels,

World wheat prices declined in the period 1924-33
with the increase in world supplies (figure 7). The
sharp decline in prices after 1929 was due largely to the
general decline in industrial activity and commodity prices.
From the spring of 1933 to the summer of 1937, world wheat
prices moved steadily upward, reflecting a world-wide
recovery in commodity price levels, currency depreciation,
and reduced production. The world price for the 1937 crop
remained practically unchanged from that of a year earlier.
In 1938 world prices again declined sharply, as a result of
the record world production and weakness of demand.

World crop prospects indicate a decrease of about 455 million bushels

World wheat production in 1939 is now tentatively estimated at about
4,130 million bushels, which is about 440 million bushels less than the all-
time record crop produced in 1938. Table 1 shows the Bureau's tabulation by
countries. The Northern Hemisphere total now appears to be about 380 million
bushels below the production last year. The reduction in the United States is
estimated at 200 million bushels, that for Europo, ex-Danube 185 million
bushels, and that for the Danubian countries, 35 million bushels. These reduc-
tions were only slightly offset by increases in production in Canada, and
Africa. In the Southern Hemisphere countries, where the crop is still in the
winter season, early indications are for a reduction of about 60 million
bushels.

On the basis of weather and conditionsto date, the crop in Canada is
now forecast at about 380 million bushels. The first official estimate places


/ All references to world acreage, yield, production, and stocks in this
report exclude the U.S.S.R. and China.





WS-34


winter wheat production at 22.4 million bushels, which is an increase of 2.6
million bushels, compared with the crop in 1938. The acreage of winter wheat
remaining for harvest this year is estimated at 657,000 acres compared with
742,000 acres a year ago. The acreage of spring wheat sown in the Prairie
Provinces is the largest on record. According to the annual June survey it
was estimated at 25.8 million acres, which is an increase of 0.9 million acres
compared with the spring wheat acreage in 1938. Recent general rains did
much to end the excessive heat wave, but most of the crop was too far advanced
to derive much benefit from the rainfall, and deterioration continued. Late
sown wheat, however, benefited somewhat. The condition figure on July 31 was
estimated at 89 percent of the long-time average yield, which was 13 points
below the estimate of a month earlier. The July 31 condition figure, however,
is still 7 points above that of July 31, 1938. The most favorable conditions
prevail in northern Manitoba and central Alberta and in northern Saskatchewan,
-here a crop much better than the poor one of last year is expected. In the
southern part of Saskatchewan, however, as well as in Manitoba, the crop is
ripening too fast and will yield less than had been expected. Grasshoppers
have become numerous and have caused destruction in some districts, but damage
has been less than at this time last year. In parts of Alberta, crop prospects
have deteriorated greatly, and it is feared that poorly developed and shrivelled
kernels will result in a lowered grade of wheat. Harvesting is now fairly
general throughout the Prairie Provinces and crop yields and grades are re-
ported to show a wide variation.

In Europe, excluding the Danube, decreased production, compared with
that of last year is estimated for all important producing countries except
Spain and Poland, the estimates for which show only slight increases. The
official estimate for Italy, placed at 294 million bushels, indicates only a
slight reduction, compared with the past 2 years. Private estimates, however,
place the crop at a lower figure. In France, the weather is now favorable
for harvesting, but recent rains have affected the quality of the grain. The
crop, still estimated at 276 million bushels, is considerably smaller than the
1938 harvest of 345 million bushels. Private estimates now range from 256
to 272 million bushels. Recent heavy rains in parts of Germany have reduced
crop prospects and the outturn is expected to be considerably smaller than
the large 1938 harvest. The quality of the grain is also reported to have
deteriorated. The production in England and Wales is officially estimated
at 56 million bushels, compared with the 1938 crop of 69 million bushels.
The weather is now favorable for the maturing and ripening of the crop.
Belgium and the Netherlands are both expected to harvest crops much below
those of 1938. The Scandinavian countries are expected to have crops smaller
than those of last year and below average. In the Danubian countries
(Bulgaria, Hungary, Rumania, and Yugoslavia) the outturn is expected to
exceed average, but prospects are for a crop considerably below the large
1938 total.

Harvesting is progressing in some sections of the U.S.S.R. Official
statements suggost a large production. Trade sources, however, are less
optimistic.


- 16 -




- 17 -


Table 1.-Production of wheat in specified countries, 1936-39


193
, 1936


! I I
: 1937 : 1938 : 1939


IIORTHERI HEMISPHERE
North America:
United States .................:
Canada ........... .. ... ..... :
Mo:iCO ................ ..,,...:
Total (3) .................
Europo:
TotcJ excluding Danube ........
Danube -


Bulga-ria ......
Hun ry .......
Rumania .......
Yucs-,avia ....
Total (4) ...
Total Europe
Africa:


Palestine ................. .: 2,795
Syria and Lebanon ............ 15,704
India (August estimates) .....: 352,203
Japan ........................ 45,192
Choson .......................: 8,095
Turkey ....................... : 141,582
Total (6) .................: 565.571


Total 43 countries ........
Estimated Northern Hemi-
sphere total, excluding
Soviet Union and China.
SOUTHERN HBAISPHERE
Arge-ntina ................ ..
Australia .-......... ...........
Union of South Africa ..........
E7i.:1 .,ted world d total ex-
cluiding So'.iot Union and
C;.: i. J. f ....... .
Compiled front official data c:.coc


1,000 bu.


626,766
219,218
13,581
895q.565


1,097,061


1,000 bu.


875,676
180,210
10,587
1.o66.471


1,188,177


4,682
17,227
364,075
50,410
10,242
132,985
579.621


1,000 bu.


930, -: 1
350,010
13,425
1.294.236


1,376,721


1,633
23,674
401,856
45,244
10,401
156,097
638. 905


1,000 bu.


731,432
1380 ,ooo
2/ 13,000


1.124.432


1,193,399


..............: 60,350 64,910 78,951 71,155
.............. 87,789 72,158 98,777 1/110,597
..............: 128,717 138.158 177,154 1.44,033
............: .;_107.422 8 11330 103,726
0........... : 1.....;-'4-. 1__~ S "'o 1,-'3;oO = 12
(30) ......... : l_ -. ._._. ., l .


5,000
2/ 22,000
370,608
54,413
12,286
2/150,000
614 .07


:j,002,276 3,312,852 3,894,.o2 3,512.810


:_ ,107,000 3,417,000 3,998,000 3,616,o000

: 249,193 184,801 336,201 1/260,000
: 151,390 188,018 154,543 2/175,000
s 16,077 10,157 17.093 2/ 15,000


I

: 3,579,000 3,863,00
pt as otherwise noted.


4.573.000 4.133.000


l/ Bas)d on weather c-:.ditions to date. 2/ Appr.o:cimaticr.. 3/ 'ecv: boundaries
and thorfore i ccrrlarab:le with previous yc:..ro. 4/ Tho Interon-ational
Institute of Agriculture considers this a m.xiiu.


WS-34


Country


Egypt ........................ 45,700 45,376 45,933 49,016
Algeria ......................: 29,774 33,209 34,941 4/44,827
Morocco ......................t 12,234 20,895 23,172 38,764
Tunisia ......................: 8,017637 1362 4/ 1
Total (4) .................: 95,791 117,117 118,00U 151.162
Asia:


~


--


--


ll r -- -


)




WS-34


- 18 -


The pr:i-ction in IT:rthern Africa this year is estimated to be about 33
million bushels larger than the. 1938 crop. Larger crrps than those of last year
art. re.-ortetd for all four countries.

Ba:sed on official estimates of thie crops in Japan and Chs.-en, and on
private estimates for China, the total production in tht.se three Oriental
countries is estir..att.d to be about 28 million bushels above, that of 1938.

The condition of the crop in Argentina is rtportc.d as favorable, though
frosts ar.: ne d.d to check the advanced growth in s-mc. regions. If not checked
soon, rank growth may make the plant more susceptible ts damage. On the. basis
of weather and yield studies the crop is now forecast at about 260 million
tushels. Crop prospects in Australia are very favorable, though son, frost
damage has been reported in Nt.w South Wales.

For India the latest official estimate of the current crop is 370,608,000
bushels, cr.mm:red with the 1938 harvest of 401,856,000 bushels.

World carry-over -Qy be. about 600 million bushels less than last y-ar

Estimated stocks of old whc-at on hand July 1 in the four major exporting
countries and afloat, shown in the table accompanying figure 5, are 323 million
bushels larger than a year ago. Reports have been received for only a few
other countries, which do not justify a revision of the iarly tentative esti-
mate of total world carry-over of about 1,200 million bushels. Stocks a year
-rO werCs otstim:;ted at about 600 million bushels.

Estimated total stocks on July 1 in the four im.jor E.xrorting countries
compare with those of last year as follows: Stocks were incre-.:ed in Argentina
122 million bushels. Stocks of old what in the United States 101 million
bushels and in Canada 82 million bushels. Stocks in Australia rtmaind un-
chr.anre1 from a year earlier. Unit.-d Kingdom stocks and supplies afloat to the
United Kingdom, the Continent and for orders incre.1i:.d 18 million bushels.
Supplies in r.:,jor exrortine countries available for c.xport or carry-over (the
entire disappearance deducted) are shown in table. 13.

li'.errn-:1 ricE.s continue to decline

Wheat prices in Liverpool continued until tht. latter nart of July, the
decline which b.gan the first of June, influt.nced by favorable crop prospects
and abundant supplies of old-cr-- grain. During the last wct.k in July and
first of August there was some recovery, reflecting less favorable prospects
for spri-r.: v'h.-it in North A-eric-.. More recently a further decline took place,
influenced by heavy offerings and slow demand, but this has new been checked by
incro -e! tension in thi; Eur'ptian situation.

Unless demand does not change n:tterially, prospects for larz.-cr world
supplies -re expected to result in prices at Liverpool avraging lower thn in




WS-34


- 19 -


the year en-~i. June 30, 19k~-, 't. dumarnd for what, .--w.v., .1 I.t bu :''f:ct< i
, m. a mattriar in:r-i, se in pcliticrt- tension abroad or gtn.ural i'-rov rvr.nt irn
he 'torld economic situation.

Aver--;Ei closir- -utures prices at Winnint:, Livt.r'vl :.. -enrs Aires,
or.,-pard. with -rices in :'-.istic markt.ts, artn shown in t.obl. 7. Cash nri=>s cf
Canadiar., Ar-t ntine, and Australi.n wht.st in Liverpool art, shovmn in table 2.


T',ble 2.- Fricis of irrort.cd :-.':.at :it Liv,.rn7ol


Date
(Fri v)


May 5
12
19
26
June 2
9
16
23
30
July 7
14
21
28
Aug. 4
11
18


_: ___.: -"l _~ .:at Soft ;-: at _
:U. S. ('-f): Canaa : U. S. : Ar-,.ntine
:N-.1 Dk.Hc. : No. 3 :(Pacific) : R safe :Australian :Runanian
: Wint.r :.1r itcba : T i te : __
: C..rts Cnt_ Cnts CEnts Ci..nts CG.nts


-- o
6 .








54.1
56.3


56.3


76.1
75.3
75.0
75.3
75.0
71.0
70.2
67.3
66. 7
67.3
62.5
60.7
60.7
61.8
61.2
60.7


63.3
62.5
61.8
61.7
60,7
58.9
58.9
54.9
57.
5. 6
52.7
49.0
50.5
51.2
49.9
-;- .o


69.5
69.5
69.5
68.4
6S.1
65.1
64.7
62.9
2.1
61.4
60.7
54.9
56.3
55.6
54.3
53.4


THE DO:,rSTIC ,-.SAT SITU..TICJ


BACK~:PRC D.- The carry- ,ver of cld vht.:t in the. United
States avur,-.,.d about 220 trillion bushr.ls in th11 I, -ye.ar
period 1929-38. In 1933 stc -ks r.:ach;d a r rcrr". n eak of
about 3"-: r.illion bushels. In 193' stock's of old wheat :.'t:r.
153 million bus". .1s. -he. dcm..stic risiap.aran.c. ji.uring thu 10-
ye1-.r, 1.9-38, avr,~,~;. about 685 -illion busl:ls.

D-ntstic w.h.at --rices frr. t'.o s~rin of 1935 to '"t "t cf
1937 were 'inur:r21. }.l -1- in relation to world 'ricus, as tho
result of .-2,l cr,-ns in tn. Uniti.d St; te.s. Dirin.- the -:-.r
b, ,inrir.n: July 1936, b th world an;l ,t.stic prices :av.Anced
sharply as a result cf increase. T .-'. :i 1 ..J1 sun-,nlies.
Prices received ;- pr. 'i1::c for the 1936-37 season aver:..-u




Ws-34


- 20 -


103 cents per bushel, and for the 1937-38 season, 96 cents.
Prices during the 1938-3? season were substantially below
those of a year earlier, larrgoly as the result of the large
world wheat supplies.

UTnii-. States whc:at 'r i.tiate irncr~.a:,e 15 million b.:sh.Is in July

A total 1939 wheat crop of 731,432,000 bushels was indicated by August
1 reports on yield per acre and condition. This is an incrt.ase of 14,777,000
bushels ovcr the indicated production on July 1. Both winter and spring wht.at
i.stimatos wn;re higher than a month earlier with winter wheat accounting for
most of the increase in total wheat production. The estimated production of
all wheat in 1938 was 930,801,000 bushels and the 10-yt;ar (1928-37) average
production is 752,952,0Or1' bushels.

The preliminary ..stimate of winter what production was 550,710,000
bushels, compared with 586,637,000 bushels harvested in 1938 and 560,160,oo0
buz:h .s, the 10-y.ar avr. ;c.. The estimate for August 1 indicates an increase
of about 13,000,C00 bush,.ls over the production indicated on July 1.

The 1939 winter wheat yield per acre is 14.3 bushels, ccmn artd with 13.8
bushels in 1938 an.? the 10-yv.ar (1928-37) avtrrau of 14.5 bushels. On July 1 the
indicated yield was 13.9 bushels,

Most of the incre-:so since July 1 occurred in Kansas, M.issouri, Indiana,
Illinois, Ohio, California :and Ort:-or. Th-. month wais favorable for harvesting
of wheat and yields turned out gen.-rally bt.tter than c.arlir.r expected. Quality
has bi.en good except in thE; western Gr;::.t Plains Area, whtrre both yields and
quality were substantially reduct.- by hot, dry '.; ,ther. Harvestin.- of heatot was
completed in Tlxas, Oklah,:-;:. and all except extrne western Kans::s before the
high July tt.r.eraturt.s. V.ry little djm:..e resultt.d from black st,.m rust this
year.

The total spring whr.;at crop of 180,722,C0O bushels on the basis of August 1
conditions is 1,834,000 bushels above the July 1 forecast :ir. comnoares with the
1938 production of 244,164,000 bushels -dri the 10-ytar (1928-37) avr:r:. e of
192,792,0CD bushels. Prospects for nroblction of both Durum :and other spring var-
ieties imnrovc.d during July. The 1939 production of durum was estim ated at
31 ,32,0(i b'. '.-ls, which is 10 percent lowv.r than the 10-year (1928-37) average
pro'u"tion and about 22 percent blow, the 1938 crop estimate. This crop was able
to withst:und high July ti.mptraturt.s b.ttter than mcst cth;tr crops, and in spite
of grasshooppr da n:.- in some sections, yield prospects wer)e maintained or im-
proved during July.

Production of other Triri:g wh-.at was indicated to be 14q,340,0C) bu-!.ols,
or 1,3542,(-'' busht..ls -reater th; n on July 1. This incr:ast. rt;sulted principally
frro improved conditions in tht. Dakotas, Nobraska, and the Pacific :ort'.'- st.
E:xcssive hcat in July resiltod in yiells lo-wr than wv'tr- anticipate.. t.arlier in
Montana, Colorado, Wyoming, and Utah.




- 21 -


United States old-wheat stocks estimated at 254 million L. -.. -1

Stocks of old wheat in the United States on July 1, 1939, at the '-r-
fi lr.ir.- of the new marketing year, are estimate. at 254,'C', bushels.
This ca:.'!-over "orm red with a revised estimate of 253,?.O,CC,') bushels of
old wheat on hand July 1, 1938. This year for the second time, old and new
w':r. *:t "sc rc'-rt ed separately by merchant mills, n'-kir.,: possible a statement
of stocks of old w?. '.-t only. New wheat always has been report -: separately
for farm, and interior mill and elevator stocks, and not used in the carry-
over estimates. cWen the new wheat in comrn-.C. cial stocks and merchant mills
if include -, J'.ly stocks total 295,492,000 uzhls compared with 172,Zo,OCO
c sh'ls a y. ar earlier, Figure 1 and the accorpanyin.- table show the stocks
in the various positions with and without the new wheat included in commercial
and merchant mill stoclks.

Table 3.-Estimated wheat supplies and distribution by classes for 1938-39

: Hard : Soft : Hard : : :
Item : Red : Red : Red : Durum 7 : 7Thite :Total
: Winter :int r :Spring :::
WMil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.b'.. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu.
Carry-over July 1, 1938
(old wheat):
Farm and interior mills :
and elevators ........: 32 .24 15 3 16 90
Co:..norcial .............. : 6 6 1 1 22
MI.rchr-t mills 1/ .......: 20 7 10 1 3 41
Total carry-over ......: 60 37 31 5 20 153
Production ................: 388 237 161 42 103 931
Total upplly ..........: 448 274 192 47 123 l
Exports and shipments 2/ ..: 76 4 3 2 24 1Q9
Carry-over June 30, 1939 :
(old wheiat) .......... .: 114 30 73 18 19 2554
Aarnr.t is....ranc 3/: 2S 240 11 _____ __
1/ urclau of Census fi.ur:: raised to represent all merchant mills and elevators.
Includes stored for others as well as owned wheat in merchant mills .-id eleva-
tors. E::c!uos 13,L23,000 bushels reported .as being new wheat. 2/ From re-
ports of Foreign and Domestic Cor.-: -rce of the United States. Exports include
only flour made from domestic wheat. Shipments "re to Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto
Rico and Virgin Islands. 3] Balancing it.-.m.


1.::w wheat '..'-s r.r.orted in com.:rcial stocks for 1937 as well as 1938
and 1939, but was reported only for 1938 and 1939 in merchant mill stocks.
Now wheat in merchant mills and elevators in 1937 wore estimated on the bases
of: (1) the percent -.,_c of new wheat in total wheat stocks in import -nt
winter wheat States in 1938, and (2) the pc;c.nt:,-rc of new wheat r -.chin;. mar-
ket centers in 1937 compared. with 1938 .s rmeresented by comnnercial stocks.




-S-34 22-


Sutilics of ll classes of wheat abundant

"-'ble 4 shows the estimat- d July 1 carry-over of old wvhoat, current
crop estimates and estimated prosprctive utilization, by classes for 1939-40.
The actual utilization by classes will depend, of course, on a number of
factors, two of which are the prices of wheat relative to feed grain prices
and supplies in the various sections of the country, and the relative prices
of the different classes of wheat. It will bq observe that stocks of mill-
ing types are alandiant.

Table 3 shovs the estimated supply aid distribution by classes for
1938-39, uczrl- stocks of old. wheat. Wheat feeding in 1938-39 was very large
end accounted for the large disappc:.rance. Table 9 shows the analysis by
classes for 1937-39 a:.d the 10-year, 1929-34 average, before the years of
small supplies of milling rheats.



Table 4.-E.tiriated prospective wheat supplies and distribution
by classes for 1939-40

S Hard : Soft : Hard :
Item : Red : Red : Rod :' DUm : Whito : Total
:Winter :Wintor :Spring ::
:Mil,bu. :l.il.bu. Mil.bu, 1ilbu., Milbu. Mil.bu,
Carry-over July 1, 1938 :
(old wheat):
Farms and interior nills :
and elevators .......: 45 20 39 10 15 129
Cor.nercial ..............: 29 5 24 4 2 64
Merchant nills 1/ ....... : 40 5 10 4 2 61
Total carry-over ......: 114 30 73 .18 19 254
Production 2J ............: 303 199 122 32 76 731
Total supply ..........: 417 228 195 50 95 985
Prospective utilization ..: 273 210 115 27 75 700
Available for carry-over :
insurance stocks and ex- :
port ....................: 144 IS 80 23 20 285

l/ Bureau of Census fiure raised to represent all merchant mills and
elevators. Includes stored for others'as well as wheat owned.
2_ ka:s t c~ ti.nate,

Domestic whvo'.t .rice r-rain firm considerably above export levels

Donr.tic ~'at pricoc at present are somewhat higher th a a month ago
and h-av r:o-.ainccd .co airably above export levels as a result of only a
moderate siz; I United St-.tMs crop, a large proportion )f '.::hc't being placed




TS- 4


for lran, and the announcc-iont of the export-aid program. /~ The price of
io. 1 D:.rk Hard Winter wheat at Kansas City was 67.9 contz, 'a- -.':el on
Au:.-.t 13', which was 11.6 c=r.ts a.ve the p: :co of the -:-: c ;'lh':t in Liveir-
pool on the s:.,.c doy, the ,l't qurtation available (t:C..l 2). Under si:.ilar
conditions of .uT'ply, the price at Kansas City would be -::-,ectl.I to be about
15 cents below the price at Livo-rlool figureo 8). Table 5 :rh-,.:s other spreads
bet.en domestic 1.wheat prices .ni priconr at Liverpoo as woll as Winnir *-.
Moreover, the price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kar.sas City for July 1933
at 67 cents was only 3 cents lower than in July 1938, cvCn thon-uh the price
of Parrcels at Liverpool at 54 cents was 44 cents lovw.r this J.ly than a year
earlier. Similarly, the price of futures at Chicago in July 1939 aveor.-;."
only 5 cents lower than in July 1938, while the price of futures at LiverpW-ol
averaged 29 cents lower this July than a year -wo.

Table 5.-Spreade betweccn donostic wheat prices ar.l prices at
Winnipeg and Liverpool, specified periods, 1937-39


Ch ica.
related
Winnipeg :L
Sept.- :
Oct.
Cents


Futures per bushel
po Kancas City
to related to
iverpool :Winnipog :Livt:rpool
Sept.- : Sept.- : Sept.-
Oct. : Oct. : Oct.
Cents Ccnt3 Conts


: C"sh :.'n-".t o.,,-*: l"..shel
: No. 2 Hard Winter
:(Kr.-as City)r lat- to
: To. 3 Mani: P..rcels
:toba : (Liverpool)
:(Winnipeg) :
Cents Ce:nts


June-
1937
1938 / :
1939 1/
July-
1937
1938 9
1939
Week
ended-
Aug. 19-:


- 6
- 6
12

- 14
- 7
12


- 14
- 10
13

- 18
- 13
11


- 9
- Io'
7

- 18
- 12
7


- 17
- 14
9

- 22
- 19
7


1
- 27
17

- 16
- 20
20


- 13
- 24
7

- 21
- 28
13


1937 : 17 17 24 24 13 2/
1938 : 4 14 7 17 6 2/
1939 : 14 15 8 9 19
I/ Figures for Juno 1938 and 1939 are 'ifforent from those publi.i-Ic last month
because the July futures 'were used in error.
2/ Not available.
(-) before figure denotes Chiz-tco or Kansas City below Winnipeg or Liverpool.


t


5/ A now method of operation of the :*.heot cxrt-_rt pro.r-'-r was a:-r.nced August
11, which is based on export payments uado directly to United States ex:norters
whr. sell abroad. Under the now nethod, the Secretary of Agriculture, or his
authorized agent, will accept rates of pynents for each individual exportation,
on the basis of corrptitive individual offers from exporters. The wheat ex-
port program since its ir.nuguration in AuCCust 1938 has bcen operated through
pur:chses by the FSCC in United States markets .~.d resale to United States
c)-nrtcrs at prices which would enable the exporters to sell in world markets.
The continuance of the wheat flour-export progr.n to caccurago the sale of
United States flour -was announced July 11. The continuing program will be
carried out unicr substantially the sae op rating procedure as that in affect
durir.ng the last fiscal year.


Month
and.
year


I
S


I


-----





WS-34


Table 6.- Weighted av.ra:ig cash price of wheat, snt-cifiud
markets and c.:%ts, 1938 and 1939

:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :No. 2 Hard .: Ur. 2 : Wistern
Month :and grades :Hard Winter:Dk.N. Spring:Anber Durum :R:d Winter: White
or date :six markets:Kansas City:Minneapolis:Mi r.n6-clis : St. Louis:S attle 1/
:s193 : 1939:1938 : g1939: 1938: 1939:1938 : 193_ I 1938: 1939: 1938: 1939
:Ct. Ct. t. Ct., Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct, Ct.
Crop yr. :
av. End-:
ing
June 30 : 106.3 69.9 110.8 69.5 127.9 79.1 106.9 72.5 112.6 69.6 88.2 66.6

Month
May :82,0 80,2 79,7 75.7 105.3 85,6 88.4 79.1 76,9 82.7 77.0 71.8
June :81.3 74.5 76.7 70.9 105.0 84.4 90.0 76.4 74.8 73.4 73.7 72.3
July :68.4 67.5 70.0 66.7 87.6 77.8 79.8 73.3 68.9 68.5 67.8 68.6

WE..k i.nded
July 8 : 69,6 69,0 69,4 68,8 97,0 80.9 83,4 72.3 69.1 70.4 69.2 70.7
15 : 69,6 66.7 71.1 65.2 97.6 SO.7 7 3.3 69.3 69.0 68.3 69.4 69.0
22 :67.8 67.0 70.2 64.9 90.4 75.2 80.2 68.3 67,7 67.7 67.0 68.6
29 :65,9 65.4 68,2 62.3 83.8 73.8 77.0 76.3 67.5 65.5 65.4 66.6
Aug. 5 :67.6 69.7 67.4 66.7 80,5 76.7 72.1 78.5 66.7 6g.6 63,9 69.4
12 : 67.0 70.7 63.7 62.S 76.4 74.8 74.2 77.9 63.5 66.8 59.7 68.7
19 : 69.3 71.3 64.6 64.4 76.8 76.1 74.4 79.8 66.3 69.4 59.8 --

High 2/ : 69.6 71.3 71.1 68.8 97.6 80.9 83.4 79.8 69.1 70.4 69.4 70.7
Low 2/ : 65.9 65.4 63.7 62.3 76.4 73.8 72.1 68.3 63.5 65.5 59.7 66.6


_I Weekly average of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sack.td.
2_ July 8 to August 19, 1939, and corresponding dates for 1938.




- 25 -


Table 7.- Average closing price of September wheat futures, specified markets
and dates, 1938 and 1939


Month : Winnipeg : Liverpool ; Buenos : : Kansas
or : I/ :1 I ; Aires I Chicago City : Minneapolis
date :T938 :1939 :1938 :319391 :199 193 1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939


: Ct.

May ....: 84.0
June ...: 82.9
July ...: 77.6
Week
ended-
July 8..: 78.8
15..: 7s.4
22..: 77.2
29..: 76.2
Aug. 5.-: 75.1
12..: 70.8
19..: 67.5
High 3/ : 78.8
Low I/ : 67.5


Ct. Ct.


66.6
61.8
54.3


58.8
54.6
53.3
51.5
53.2
52.1
51.7
58.8
51.5


92.3
86.6
84.4


84.6
84.8
84.4
82.7
82*.5
79.2
77.3
84*.
77.3


Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.


64.6
60.4
55.0


58,1
56.0
53.2
$2.4
53.9
52.1
50.9
58.1
50.9


--- 77.1
76.5
--- 71.0


80.82/59.5
78.82/59.5
76.1Y59.5
73.4 239.5
72.0 59.5
65.8 59.5
65.1 59.5
80.8 -459.5
65.1 4/9.5


72.6
72.2
70.1
68.0
66.4
62.8
63.2
72.6
62.8


74.8
73.5
66.3


69.2
66.7
65.6
63.4

64.1
65.9
69.2
63.4


73.3
72.4
65.8


67.1
67.0
65.2
63.3
62.2
58.8
60.1
67.1
9"-,


70.8
69.0
61.7


64.7
62.2
60.8
58.9
59.9
59*9
58.5
59.6
64.7
5s*5


80.9
82.6
76.4


78.3
77.2
70.0


77.8 73.0
77.8 70.6
76.0 69.0
73.2 67.0
71.1 6g.6
67.5 67.1
67.7 68.1
77.8 73.0
67.5 67.0


1/ Conversions at Noon buying rate of exchange; for October futures.
/ August futures.
SJuly 8 to August 19, 1939, and corresponding dates for 1938.
August and September futures.


Note Figures in above table for May and June 1939, and June 1938 are different
from those published last month because the July futures were used in error.

Table 8.- Percentage of hard red, and soft red winter wheat in specified
grades, 1938-39
(Based on inspected receipts at representative markets, July 1 to July 31)


: Hard Red Winter wheat


Item


Grade


5
Sample
Special grades
Tough
Light Smutty :
Smutty
Light Garlicky:
Garlicky


: Sub-
: class


:Dk.Hd.
:Hard
:Yellow Hd.
.


:


1938 :


Percent
47
53
0


: Soft Red Winter wheat


SSub-
1939 : class


Percent:
44 :
55 : Red
1 :


1938 :
Percent


12
45
37
4
1 :
1 :


1939


Percent


2
.45
43
6
1
3

17
1
I
3
17


~


C ?-


--i


---





S-34 26 -

Table 9.- Wheat: Estimated supply and distribution by classes, average
1929-33, annually years beginning July 1, 1937-39

Item : Average : Year beginning July 1
:1929-33 IL/ : 1937 : 1938 : 1939


: Mil. bu.


Stocks, July 1 .........:
Production .......
C r .-o ely . ..:
Exports 2/ ....... .....:
Carry-over'............:
Disappearance /........

Stocks, July 1 .........:
Production .............:
Supply .............:
Export s ................:
C-rry-over .............:
Disappearance .......... :


I/ 317
792


1,109
90
325
694


Mil.. bu. M
All wheat
83
876


959
103
153
703


iil. bu.


153
931


Mil. bu.


254
731
" "St5'


1,084


109
254
721


Hard. Red Winter


161 37 6o : l14
349 373 3g8 :303
510 410 448 417
52 74 76
167 60o 14 :
291 276 258


I
Stocks, July 1 .........
Production ............. :
Supply .............:
Exports ................
Carry-over .............:
Di- appearance ..........:

Stocks, July 1 .........:
Produc ion ............:
Supply .. ..........
3- orts ........ ..
Carry-over .............
Di appearance ..........:

Stocks, July 1 .........:
Production ............. :
Supply ............ :
:.7 rorts .............. .:
C.ary-ov-er ............ .:
Disappearance ..........:

Stocks, July 1 .........:.
Production .............


Supply ............:


32
185


Soft Red Winter
15 37
258 237


30
198


217 273 274 228
2 5 4
35 37 30
180 231 240
Hard Red Spring
79 18 31 73
135 102 161 122
214 120 192 195
1 2 3
79 31 71
134 87 116
Durum
24 3 5 18
S40 29 42 32
64 32 47 50
7 --- 2
20 5 18
37 27 27
White
21 10 20 19
8 114 103 76
: 104 124 123 95


E:Tort ................. 2 22 24
carry-over ..............: 24 20 19
Di .'-,,r,.- .1 n. .._......_. : r^"._ g_, '"
_/ Aver- -- for 1929-33 u-ced because drought yoars which followed were not repre-
sentative. .- whert in "-r*.7,r*rcial --Tj rc-rchnnt nmil. stocks prior to 1937 in the
avCr'.-e. /ron reports rf 'oreicn and Domec.ic Commcrce of the U.S. E:-Torts are
Lrc alr e-7,, rfs plus ship nt.; to Alaska,Ha "ii and Puerto Rico,-nd include wheat,
-nl flour minl o wholly or domestic wheat. 3 Bilifncir.: item.
Sec "The Wheat Situation", ebrur.-v 1937 for the figures for'" 930,August 1937 for
those for 1931 nnd 1932, Febru-ry 1938 for 1933, and February 1939 for 193 -1936.


' '




ws-34


Table 10.- Wheat: Imports into the Unit.:-i States for domestic
utilization and for griindin in bonr and e-Tort, 19~ -38

: ai'.i at unfit :Total i-:portE
Yea : Full duty :fcr human :for domrestic:For rinlir7;: Flour
beginning : wheat :cons nption: utilization: in bond : in terms
July : (tariff :(tariff of : (total of : and of wheat
: 42 cents) :10 percent : firct 2 : export 2/ :
:ad valorem)._ columns) :
: Bushe s uhal s 3us--1 Bushel s Bushels


13,783,423
272, 51
1,65&, ~143
14,808
16,, 297
79,136
44, 607
40,756
6,057
5,767
143,656
5,905,380
25,28, 519
30,205, 430
597,776
39,os6


--- 13.783,423
--- 272, 548
1,664, 843
48,g80g
--- s4,soS
1 bl,297
79,136
-- 44, 607
307,336 348,092
6,057
1,354 7,121
5,729 149,385
8,146,044 14,o51,424
9,205,128 34, 493,647
4,057l016 34,262,446
4,150 601,926
206,969 246,055


13,904, 737
5,813,353
13, 421, 430
13,171, 683
15,0 o3,679
22, 14-", 962
12,903,364
19,013,090
12,878,851
9,372,151
11,311,052
11,064,092
11,97 ', 659
13, 46g,667
2, 19,031
8,98-,542


Imports for consumption from United States Tariff Commission, July 1923 to
December 1933, and from Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, January
1934 to date.
I/ Beginning June 18, 1930, a new classification, wheat unfit for human
consumption, was introduced by the 1930 T-riff Act.
2/ Wheat for grinding in bond for e: -ort, which ente-rs d'ty free. Beinning
June 13, 1930, includes wheat ground into flour in bond for c:port to Cuba,
a new classification in the 1930 Act. From June 13, 1930 to Septemb.r 3,
1936 the uty on this wheat equaled the reduction in Cuban duty and the
reduction in the cor.sumption tax applicable by treaty to such flour imported
into Cuba. On September 3, 1936 the consumption tax was repealed.
3/ General imports prior to July 1934, subsequently imports fr consumption.
3Beinnir July 1934, excludes flour imported free for export in manufactured
foods.


1923-24
1924-25
1925-26
192r-27
1927-28
1928-29
1929-30
1930-31
1931-32
1932-33
1933-34
1934-35
1935-36
1936-37
1937-38
1938-39


794,920
31,575
gl, o04
S, 463
26,926
12,234
8,004
5,461
1,278
3,201
3,882
18,04g
123,366
192,606
31,683
25,399




.- 28 -


Table 11.- United States domestic exports of wheat by specified countries,
semi-annuai'ly, b'.:-irin.ln July 1936


: 1936-37 : 1937-39 : 1938-39
Country : July- : Jan.- : July- : Jan.- : July- : Jan.-
: Dec. : June : Dec. : J--e : Dec. l : June /


: .,000
: bushel s


Belgium ..........
D~ r:.;nrk *.... ....:
France .... .:
Germany .........:
Greece ..........:
Ireland .........:
ItSly ...........:
letherlands .....
Norway ..........
United Kingdom ..:
Other Europe ....*


19

35


399
204
336

197
11


1 ,GCO
bu!~he1 a


191

65



39
86g


b1,0C 2


5, 981
144
523
669
622
3.395
410
6,318
149
6,560
541


1,000
bu' 1.

6, 187
1, 580
342)
644
1,851
8,139
743
5,122
466
16,151
2,133


1,000
bushel s

5,94o
236
579
1, 602
302
2.731
598
9,784
205
10,620
205


1,000
'.,u shel s


6,526

283
78
40
3,589
66
6,111
120
20,324
2,292


Total Europe ....


Canada ...*...****
Mexico ..........:
Parnama .........
Salvador ........:
Brazil ..,..... ..:
Colombia ........:
Peru ..... .... ..:
Japan ...........:
Other countries .:


1,201


34
8
252
70


1,167


1 ~0
2,oIg


1

69


133
35


25,312


5,425
995
1
114
356
56
587
42
525


43,658 32,802 39,429


3,949
2,275
1
66
2/
193


2,018
619
24
143

169
55


947
1,870
1
157

123


185 3/ 770 3/ 5,436


Total exports ...:


1,733


1,436 33,413


Ij Preliminary.
Less than e700 bushels.
SIncludes 619,000 bushels
in Jan.-June 1939-


to China in July Dec. 1938 ind. 5,168,000 bushels


Compiled from official record of the Bureau of Foreign rnm Domestic Commenrce.


50,327


36,576


47,963


Y


--


Ws-34




ws-34


- 29 -


Table 12.- United States exports of wheat flour, made whclly from
United States wheat, to specified countries, semi-annually,
beginning July 1936


Commodity : 1936-37 1937-38 1938-39
and
country : July- Jan.- : July- : Jan.- : July- : Jan.-
: Dec. : June : Dec. : June : Dec. 1/ : June 1/
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:barrels barrels barrels barrels barrels barrels
Wheat flour 2/
Netb rlandi ...,..,: 53 106 258 240 201 268
Norway ............: 0 1/ 24 40 20 9
United Kingdom ....: 24 21 70 123 52 14
Costa Rica ........: 7 14 22 41 29 24
Guatemala ..........: 21 33 53 44 49 47
Nicaragua .........: 15 18 15 10 20 25
Panama ............: 28 24 39 40 45 38
Salvador ..........: 7 11 15 11 11 10
Mexico ............: 4 8 13 3 2 3
Cuba ..............: 80 102 208 303 241 221
Haiti, Republic of : 9 11 18 22 21 22
Ecuador ..........: 25 26 65 60 42 74
Venezuela ........: 3 4 32 66 45 28
China .............: 3 10 8 81 144 1,099
Hong Kong .........: 14 20 184 98 131 337
Philippine Islands.: 238 233 294 429' 450 529
Other countries ...: 47 79 233 311 278 164

Total ...........: 578 720 1,551 1,922 1,781 2,912


Preliminary.
To convert to wheat
Less than 500.


equivalent multiply by 4.7.




WS-34


- 30 -


Table 13.- Wheat surplus for export or carry-over in three export-
ing countries, United Kingdom port stocks and stocks afloat,
August 1, 1936-39 1/

Position 1936 : 1937 1938 : 1939
Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu.

Canada
In Canada ..................... 108 33 24 95
In the United States ...........: 19 1 6

Argentina .................. ..: 29 17 30 144
Australia .... ............... ....:. 33 26 36 40
Total .................. 189 80 '91 285

United Kingdom port stocks ...... 9 12 14 25

Stocks afloat to:
United Kingdom .............. : 12 10 12 16
Continent .................. : 7 6 11 11
Orders ........................ : 2 9 13 8
Total .................. 30 37 50 60

Grand total ............: 219 117 3141.. 345
1/ Carry-over at the beginning of the year (Canada, July 31; Argentina, January
1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production, minus dop
mestic utilization for the year minus monthly exports to date.


Table 14.- Shipments of wheat, including.flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1937-38 and 1938-39
: :
Period : Argentina : Australia : Danube : North America
S1937-3 a938-39:1937-38 1938-39:1937-38a938-39:1937-38:1938-39
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu.

July-June .......:
Week ended :66,928 114,272 127,520 102,116 37,232 52,848 184,720 245,296

193 1939 198 199 3 9 193 9 1938 1939
July 8 ......: 2,700 4,372 3,272 1,468 224 624 3,776 5,368
15 .......: 1,508 3,660 1,124 1,860 264 1,240 2,976 2,840
22 .......: 1,216 2,276 1,160 1,108 64 736 6,104 4,056
29 ........: 1,120 2,076 1,348 1,696 0 2,072 3,808 3,112
Aug. 5 .......: 1,116 3,240 2,608 880 0 320 4,28 920
12 .......: 1,032 3,537 2,104 876 312 152 4,192 4,900
12 .......: 600 2,670 2,104 1,150 192 169 4,376 5,638
Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade News.




- 31 -


Table 15.- E:ports of wheat and wheat flour fro::. the Unitei States
1937-38 and 1938-39
(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheqt)
Wheat Wheat flour : What including
Period flour
1937-38 1938-39 : 1937-38 1938-39 1937-38 1938-7?
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 ,O
: buhl s buIshl s tbuh21l c buShe s b.sh s u~l'e s

July-Junei ....... 83,747 84. 539 4,991 6,637 107,203 15,3
Week ended- 1/..: 18 1 1
July 8 ..,.: 11,432 50 98 1,667 1,147
15 ....: 1,114 354 62 31 1,405 500
22 ....: 3,329 510 33 280 3,484 1,826
29 ....: 2,171 584 47 230 2,392 1,65
Aug. 5 ...: 1,673 509 36 50 1, 42 714
12 ....: 2,196 507 71 139 2,530 1,160
19 ....: 2,469 2/1,313 25 2j 60 2,587 2/ 1,595



Compiled from reports of the Deop.rtment of Commerce.

I/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not available.
These data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.


2/ Preliminary.




- 32 -


T-.le 16.- Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
countries, 1935-36 to 1938-39


: "Exports as given by official sources:
: Total: July 1 to date shown
:1935-36 :1936-37 :1937-38 :1936-37 :1937-38 :1938-39 '
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 :
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels :


Date


United States 1/..:
Can-n:a ,..........:
Argentina ...,....:
Australia ........:
Soviet Union .....:
Hungary ..........:
Yugoslavia .......:
Rumania ..........:
Bulp--ria .........:
-ritish India ....:
Total ..........:
*


15,929
237,447
76,577
105,328
29,704
14, 644
728
6,392
988
2,556
490.293


21,584
213,028
162,977
97,712
4,479
27,428
17,954
36,264
7,273
16,571
605,270


107,194
94, 546
69,670
123,453
43,354
9, 6g
5,012
32,962
8, 474
19,677
513.720


21,584
213,028
162,977
97,712
1,290
27,428
17,322
35, 534
6,549
10,255


107,194
94,546
69,670
123,453
18,694
9, 36s
5,003
31,367
7,228
14.61


Shipments as given by trade sources


115, 734:
169,885:
116,116:
96, 579:
31,529:
27, 640:
5.346:
39,988s:
1, 886:
9q. 9:


June'30
June 30
June 30
June 30
Oct. 31
June 30
May 31
May. 31
May 31
Mar. 31


: Total : Week ended 1939 :- July 1 i Aug. 19
:1937-38 :1938-39 : Aug. 5 : Aua.12 : Aug.19 : 1938 : 1939


: 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushel__s bushels bushel s


North America 2/ :
Canada 3/........1:
United States 5/ .:
Ar t-i i na ........:
ki-tralia .........:
Soviet Union .....:


14, 720
9i, 546

6,1,028
127, >0
42, 2ks48


245,296
169, S5
94,157
r114,272
102,116
33,824


35-'. ri 6/.....: 37,232 52, 34L8
Britl.:h n ii ...".:] 1 677 6, 2 0
Tor /....... ", 325 567,636
Tot-1 :o- Cn :
shi.r: : ...: 397, 592 450, 7c4


Tot.1 -:


3,920
2,200
744
3,240
880
0

320
0


:6,t552


1,000
bushels

4,900
4,100
1,160
3,537
876
256

152
0


1,000 1,000 1,000
bushel s bushels bushel s


5,638

1,595
2,670
1,150
0

169
o


29,520
4/11,400
15,907
9,292
14,900
12,840

1,056
5,088
72,696


29,834
/21,900
8, 641
21,831
9,038
1,344

5,313
0
67,360


2/L<,o4o 2/38,048


* ^ < -. :


C .9~

-ji


-,: 99,4oo 146,760


2,456


2/11,928 2/13,192


_. li!le in bond from foreign wheat.
- .* I. (",: : trdc Id3ws*
'Z-p.; -. :ported to date, supplemented by reported weekly cleir-


S. .i~ 1 .imtcs of flour shipments.

.F 'c- r" -r- r'.coiv.cd from 16 principal ports only.
'C 'a shmincnt only.

j 7't1 of troie figures includes North America as reported by Proomhalls but
100o not include items 2 rnd 3.
2/ -u st 5 only.


ws-3 4


Country


-----~


--' ~,


51. 2


T


--


L-


--


Fr!l' n:,l: .., ?I-~s






- 33 -


.able 17.-Net imports of v.heat, including flour, into r.:?-ean
countries, year beginning July 1, 1937 and 193"


Country 1937-3 : 1938-39 : Re-orted not inr-rt:
: : forecast 1: July 1 to: 1937-38 : 193g-39
: Mil.bu. Mil.bu. : : Mil.bu. Mil.bu.


Belgium ...... ...... .:
Czechoslovakia .........:
Denmark ..... ...... .....
Finland .......... ... ...:
France .................:
Gei m.any 8....... ........:)
Austria .. .............:)
Greece .. .........9 .. .:
Ireland .................:
Italy ............. .....
Latvia ...................
Netherlands ............:
Nor.ay .... ............ :
Poland .................:
Portugal ..............:
Sweden ... .. ..... ...... ..:
Switzerland ............:
United Kingdom ........:


36
1-i
6
3
15
54
18
14
5
1
24
7


1

193


34
2/ 1
5
2
2/ -1

45
10
17
14
0
29



2
17
220


:May 31
:June 30
:June 30
:June 30
:June 30
:June 30
:Feb. 28
:Mar. 31
:June 30
:June 30
:Mar. 31
:Juna 30
WMay 31
:June 30
:May 31
:Ju.o 30
:June 30
:June 30


9
9
9
9
0
9
9
9
U
9
9
9
0
9
9
9
9
9
S
9

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
0
9


34 33
-l
6 5
3 2
15 2/- 1
47 3/ 37
4 5
12 9
14 17
5 14

24 29
6 7
51 -3
1 4
-1 2
14 17
193 220


Total imports of :
above .........:

Spain ...... .... .:

Total imports ......:
Total exports ......:
Total net imports ..:
I


Compiled from official sources except


as otherwise stated.


Forecasts by European offices of United States Departr.ent of Acriculture.
2/ IlTt exports.
/ ITncl-udc new territory and is therefore, not strictly comparable with
precedirLg years.
SLos than 500,000 bushels.
5 INot cr::ports of less than 500,000 bushels.


ws-7.4


0497


316


37g


394
2
392


400oo


423
5
418


2
376


5
395


-- -- ~--


-""


-- *


--


y911





ws-34


THE RYE SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- During the past 10 years rye acreage has
remained above the pre-war level, but has been below
the high level reached at the close of the War (figure
9). The increase in rye production during the War
period was due largely to an expansion of rye acreage
into the sub-humid area of the spring Wheat Belt. Since
1924 yields have been generally below the average for
the years 1910-15 and acreage abandonment somewhat larger.
In 1933, 1934, and 1936 droughts greatly reduced rye
yields, caused heavy abandonment and reduced supplies
below domestic requirements. With more favorable grow-
ing seasons in 1935 and 1937, yields and production were
much above the 10-year average.

United States rye estimate about unchanged on August 1

The August 1 estimate of the 1939 rye crop was 40,834,000 bushels, a
decrease of 652,000 bushels, or about 2 percent from the July 1 estimate.
In 1938, the rye crop totaled 55,039,000 bushels and the 10-ycar (1928-37)
average is 36,330,000 bushels. The reduction in the rye harvest this year
in comparison with a year ago is due mostly to lower yields in Wisconsin,
Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska, The yield per
acre this year of 10.0 bushels compares with 13.8 in 1938, and the 10-year
(1928-37) average of 11.1 bushels.

The carry-over of rye is estimated at 23 million bushels, compared
with 10 million bushels last year, making total supplies about the same as
in 1938. A supply of this size would be larger than supplies in 1936 and
1937 but well below the large supply of 70 million bushels in 1935. The
apparent disappearance of rye in 1938-39 was about 41 million bushels, and
in 1937-38 it was 39 million bushels. Of the estimated 41 million bushels
disappearance,about 19 million bushels were used for feed, about 10 million
bushels for seed, about 7 million bushels for food, and about 5 million
bushels for distilled spirits and alcohol.

Present indications are that the supply of rye in 1939-40 will again
be more than sufficient to take care of food and foed requirements, and the
carry-over may be greater at the end of the marketing year than at the end
of the 1938-39 season. In the past 3 years a comparatively large percentage
of the rye crop was fed, as a result of a shortage of supplies in feed grains
in some of these years and the unusually largo supplies of ryo. In 1937 and
1938, feed grain supplies wore more than ample for livestock on farms, but
feeding of rye was heavy as a result of unusually largo supplies. Supplies
of feed r-iin will again be ample for livestock requirements in 1939-40, and
the demand for feeders will probably be no more favorable than for the past
2 marketing years.




- 35 -


ERg exports in 1939-40 mag gain be snall

The European rye crop 4/ in 1939 will again be larc, and overseas
demand for United States rye this year may, accordingly, again be a-r11.
In 19'--39 exports totaled less than 1 million bushels. The production of
rye for 1939 in the 13 cioutries reporting to date, is estimated at 459
million bushels (table 18). The production in those countries in 1938 was
450 million bushels. Substantial increases, compared with last yoar, are
noted for Canada, Bulgaria, IHungary, and Poland. No estimate has tbcn re-
coived for Gcrnany, which is, with the exception of the U.S.S.R., the worlds
largest rye producing country. Reports indicate that grain crops in Germany
ha-.ve been affected by unfavorable weather conditions. Rye is, howv:.cr, re-
ported to be in better condition than wheat. In Poland, the next largest
producer, it is estimated that the current crop will be about 300 million
bushels. This is the largest crop on record for Poland. Slight changes in
boundaries, ho-:7.:or, make this estimate not strictly comparable with those
for previous y:.rs.

Loan prop rmn for ry announced

A loan program for rye wno anno-nced on July 26, mskin.~ available
loans to producers in the eight nm.jo rye producing States of Michigan,
Minnesota, Montmna, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Wyoning.
The loans are to be available on farm stored rye produced in 1939 grading
No. 2 or better, at a rate 22 cents less than the applicable 1939 loan rate
for No. 2 Hard Winter wheat, but in no case more than 38 cents per bushel.
The lon rate will vary, because whoat loans are based upon terminal prices
and adjusted for freight differentials. It is estimated that the loans will
average about 35 cents per bushel.

Table 18.-Ryc: Production in specified countries, 1936-39

Country : 1936 : 1937 1938 1939
: 1.000 bu. 1,000 bu2 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.

United States ..........: 25,319 49,830 55,039 40,834
Canada ..............: 3042 ,579 8,6 1, 211
Total (2) ............: 28,361 5 09 63,402 54,0 5
Europe: ;
BulZiria ............. g8,188 9,387 7,397 9,674
Finland ............: 12,134 16,982 14,491 11,810
Greeco ..............: 1,654 2,569 2,439 2,401
Rungry ...........: 2g,114 24,325 31,677 2/ 36,691
Italy .............. 5,204 5,701 5,437 5,945
Luxemburg ............: 449 32 507 483
Poland ...............: 250,536 221,949 285.551 300,377
Runania ..............: 17,842 17,768 20,362 19,Cb2
Spain ................: 18,053 3/ 19,700 3/ 16,900 17,212
Switzerland .........: 1,077 1,296 1,449 1.378
Total (10) .........: i_ 33,251 320.069 386.210 405,033
Al 3ori ..............: 29 37
(13 ) 371 749 1'455 6 459 ,1-"
Total (13) .........: 371, Gi 4,?74. 15 4 .- ,i3.15
i Winter ryo only. 2/ New boundaries mnd therefore not conpa able .:ith
previous years. h Estin mted.
/ E-:clude the Soviet Union.












RYE ACREAGE. YIELD PER ACRE. PRODUCTION. NET EXPORTS OR IMPORTS.
AND PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS. UNITED STATES. 1900-1939
ACRES ..-.
ri4.Su o ACREAGE HARVESTED




4 .
ao --s- I--- I -- --



0
BUSHELSi--
YIELD PER ACRE





0 II 111I11111111111111 I


u
BUSHE S


100 -


0
CENts
PER
BUSHEl


PRODUCTION NET EXPORTS OR IMPORTS
PRODUCTION. MET EXPORTS OR IMPORTS i


- Net exports
am Net imports


11111 lliii slIii i i Ii


..- Production -


i ---

I ]


FARM PRICE'


100 -
50


0 : L i I I 1 I
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940
SYAR BRGINIINUG JiUL


1ewa 9


*Ea ,tl Ar ti901 n" C I nARN Pet Neg. 20705


rye harvestred area tin 1939 es only slightly larger than
in 1937 and 1938, but produetin va m aterilly smaller because of low
yelds per asre.


Ryel crek a. 71eld per acre. production, not reportss or import,.
and prioe received by farmers. United States, 1900-39
Tear a : a I t Price
beginning AcrOeag Yitld I Prodaotion I S t Ireceivod by
July harveeted t per aere I sports 1f rmero J/
S 1,000 1.000 1,000 Coate per
I a&we BnhDls nkhl bushals )WLWI
1900 2,127 12.9 27.413 2,345 51.2
1901 2.40 12.8 30,773 2.712 55.7
1902 2, 13.9 33.862 5,44 95.
19o3 2,260 12.6 28,932 751 54.5
1904 2,205 12.9 28,461 9 6.
1905 2.297 13.6 31.173 1,387 61.1
1906 2.15 13.7 29609 769 58.9
1907 2,073 13.6 2, 247 2,43 31
1908 2.130 13.5 2s.650 1,295 745
1909 2,212 13.6 30.083 212 4.6
1910 2.,262 12.9 29.098 / 187 73.4
1911 3 2.452 12.8 31,396 /- 103 1.0
1912 2.724 13.9 37,911 1.8~ 68.7
1913 3.0o9 13.1 10.390 2,236 62.9
1914 3.144 13.4 42,120 12.880 83.3
1915 1 3.417 13.7 46 752 14, 684 5.0
1916 9 3.528 12.2 43,089 13.275 113.0
1917 5.059 11.9 60321 16.352 176.4
1918 a 6.694 12.5 3.4121 E81 12.1
1919 7.166 11.0 78.659 40. or29
1920 4,.825 12.8 61.915 46.8W 1 4
1921 24851 12.6 61,023 L92 8.4.0
1922 T6757 14.9 100.986 5,564 63.9
1923 4,936 11.3 55.961 19.900 59.3
1924 3.94 14.8 58.445 50.241 95.2
1925 3, 00 11.1 he,316 12.646 79.1
1926 3.419 10.2 34, 60 21.697 83.0
-927 3.458 1. 51.076 26, 345 3.5
19289 3.310 11.5 3T.910 9. 47 63.6
1929 ,1O 11. 35. 282 2.599 87
1930 3.61 12. 45066 139 5
1931 3,162 10.6 33, 37 90s 341
1932 3.3 11. 39, 424 304 28.1
1933 2, 8.9 21. 41 / -11.994 62.7
1934 2,035 S4 17.070 / -211.249 71.8
1935 4141 114.2 58.597 2.257 39.5
1936 2 2.774 9.1 25.319 3- 3,694 80.5
1937 t 3.839 12.9 9.49 6 57 68.6
1938 3 .979 13.8 5.039 784
1939/ 4.100 10.0 40.834
i/ from reports of Foreign an Domestio Oomew of the United Statee. Za-
cludes flour.
/ December 1 farm prioe. 1900-1907.
oet imports.
Preliminary.


------------------------------------


I.


i






- 37 -


W'SS-34 T':TE FLAX.SErE SIT:'..TION

BACKGR-'UlD.- Prior to 1908 the United States production of
flTRxeed was generally in excess of domestic requirements,
but since that time we have shifted f.rm an export to an
import basis. From 1910 to 1920, domestic flaxseed supplied
more than one-half of our dom,.stic r.-qulrcr.ecnts; from 1920 to
1929 it supplied between one-_2- rth and one-half. Production
since 128E hes been greatly reduccd .as a-result of-low yields
and reduced acrC-i, Domestic demand for flaxseed was at a
low l(veol daring 1F31 and 1932, but in the past fvw years it
has i:-oroved materially. Prices of flaxseed in 1936-37 and
1937-38 weru at the highest level since 1929-30. In 1938-39
prices averaged about 25 cents per bushel lower than in the
2 preceding years.

Domestic flaxseed supplies larjust in 9 years

The domestic surply of flaxseed for 1939-r0, including July 1 carry-
over and August 1 indicated production, is 18,C':6.00 bushels compared with
10,370,000 bushels last year. A supply of this size would be the largest
in 9 years. The larger supply this year is the result of increased acre-
age in all of the important flax-producing States. The 1939 crop, in-
dicated on August 1 to be 15,*750,000 bushels, compared with mnly 8,171,000
bushels last year, is the largest crop since 1930. Yields this ye'.r were
below those of a year ago, but acreage was more than double the 1938 acreage.
Of the total production, 9,622,000 bushels 'v:ere indicated for T.irnnesota,
1,647,000 bushels for North Dakota, and 1,760,000 bushels for California.
Last year the total quantity of flaxseed crushed amounted to 25,568,00r
bushels, of which less than one-third was domestic flaxseed. The 1939-40
supply would fill about 70 percent of the domestic requirements if the
quantity of flaxseed required is about -the same as in 1938-39,

Foreign flaxseed supplies smaller than a year ago

TotAl world supplies of flaxseed were estimated to be slightly smaller
on August 1 than on this date a year ago. The Argentine crop v.as estimated
at 55,500,000 bushels compared with about 60,600,000 bushels the preceding
year. After adjusting for the heavier exports during the period January-
July, the total supply in Argentina on August 1 was estimated to be ar'nd
10 million bushels smaller than on that date last year. The 1939 Uruguay
and Indian crops were slightly smaller than a year earlier, and it is
estimated that supplies in these countries on August 1 were slightly below
those of last year. The smaller production in the Southern Hemisphere was
about offset by increased production in the United States and C'-nr.daL, result-
ing in a total world supply on August 1 slightly below the 1938-39 supply.




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Demand for flaxseed in 1938-39 about unchanged

The demand for flaxseed during 1938-39 was apparently about the same
as during 1937-38, but somewhat reduced from that tf 1936-37. The total
quantity of linseed oil consumed in 1938-39 was estimated to be about 516
million pounds, as compared with 501 million pounds last year and 585
million pounds 2 years ago, when consumption was the largest since 1930-31.

The t't.l .value of building contracts in the United States awarded
during the period January-June, 1939, was about $1,700,,000000 as compared
with $1,300,000,000 last year. Much of the increase in the value of
building contracts awarded w-.s in residential building. The rate of
residential building has been comparatively high during the past year as
a result of the program of the Federal Housing Administration.

The index of building ccntrr.cts awarded declined from January to
May, then advanced to July. The preliminary July index of 67 was 12 points
above the index for thf.t month a your ago, and was the same as the July
1937 index. With the exception of 1937, the index was the highest since
July 1930.

Flaxseed prices lower since June

The average price of No. 1 flaxseed at Minner.polis declined from
$1.85.per bushel for the w-eek ended June 17, to $1.50 for the week ended
August 12. This\ sharp decline apparently reflects the harvesting of the
large 1939 crop. During this same period the price of flaxseed at Buenos
Airos declined from $1.21 to $1.13. Consequretly the price margin between
*domestic flaxseed and that at Buenos Aires during this period declined
from 64 to 37 cents per bushel. In view of the fact that domestic supplies
are much larger this year, relative to foreign supplies than they have been
during the past few years, this narrower margin is expected to continue
during the 19.39-40 marketing year. During 1938-39 the price of JN. 1 flax-
seed at Minneapolis averaged about 70 cents per bushel above the price of
flaxseed at Buenos Aires, The average price received by United States
farmers declined from $1.61 in June to $1.39 in July. Prices received by
fc.rmars in July 1939 were about 20 to 25 cents per bushel lower in all
important producing States than in July 1938.




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