Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00045

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Full Text







UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF A_1,ICULTURL.
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


THE WHEAT S I TUAT


1 0 N


INCLU ING RYE



WHEAT: WORLD SUPPLY AND PRICE, 1923-39


SUPPLY F
f BUSHELS I
aBILl ON5 s

50



4.6



42


3.8 World r *




1923 1926 1929


PRICE


130



110



90


S: : : 50
1932 193 1 93


tYAR 1G2HNO U 9Y
AVERAGE BRITISH PAIRCLS EFLATEOD BY TA.STf7 iiX HUM :!3 U i .O. *st
4 PRELIMINARY


I S DEPAR wENT Or A.GaCULTUPi


NEIG .c i t P aUtA OF F ;ir'U AL (CONO ICS


WHEAT: SPREAD BETWEEN PRICE AT KANSAS CITY AND LIVERPOOL.
AND U.S. SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT AND CARRY-OVER, 1923-39
CENTS PER .
BUSHEL SrPEAD BEI*EEN KIANSb .:S zir
20 AND LiERPOOL




*40 r -'
BUSHELS
IMISuOni U S SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT
AND CARQ" O0E R
400 r -, -.

300 -o

200

too -



1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938
`CANRAFVtR 0 95% PLUS C I.ODU SI s *s r3IS t


. 1 AWiaRTEM1 *G.ttutteItt


WORLD WHEAT SUPPLIES FOR THE YEAR I)39-4J ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE LARGEST
ON RECORD, AND WORLD WHEAT PRICES HAVE DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER,
PROSPECTIVE SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT AND CARRY-OVER IN THE UNITED STATES ARE BELOW
AVERAGE AND WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE WHEAT LOAN AND EXPORT-AiO PROGRAM,
DOMESTIC WHEAT PRICES MAY BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RELATIVELY WHICH COMPARED WITH
WORLD PRICES.


WS-33


JULY 24, 1939


.t. .-Ie y-t-- "s11C.11-1 t 1*- (i






IJS-33


THE WHEAT SITUATION
Including Rye


Summary

Conditions continue to favor high domestic prices for wheat relative to

world prices, the Bureau of Agricultural Economics states in its current issue of

The Wheat Situation. Prices in foreign markets are depressed by prospects of the

largest wheat supplies in history, and prices at Liverpool have dropped to the

lowest level in modern times. Domestic prices have remained independently strong,

in comparison, influenced by a prospective United States crop very little above

the annual domestic disappearance, a large proportion of whea.t being placed under

loan, and announcement of the continuance of the export-aid program. The price

of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kansas City for June 1939 averaged only 6 cents

lower than for June 1938, while the price of parcels at Liverpool averaged 36

cents lower than a year earlier.

Prospective world whe-t supplies 3/ for the year beginning July 1, 1939,

are now estimated by the Bureau at about 5,290 million bushels, or about 120

million bushels above the record supplies of last year. The 1939 world production

is now tentatively placed at about 4,090 million bushels, which is about 480

million bushels less than the record crop of 1938. This reduction, however, only

partly offsets an estimated increase of approximately 600 million bushels in world

stocks of old wheat carried over. The stocks on July 1 L/ are tentatively placed

at about 1,200 million bushels comrn.red with about 600 million bushels a year ago.

Production in the Northern Hemisphere may be about 3,615 million bushels,

or about 380 million bushels less than a year ago. Significant decreases,

1/ All references to world production and stocks in this report exclude the Soviet
77nion and China., except where noted.


- 2 -







.3-..* 3 3 -

compared with 19-'9, are indicated f r the r'nited States and :,Prope, while lar,-.r

crops are estimated for Canada and 'Arthern Africa. The United States crop is

estimated to be 214 million bushels below the production last year mnd the

European crop about 215 million bushels less than in 1,3. In the Southern Hem-

isphere seeding is nearing completion and present indications point to a somewhat

smaller crop in Argentina, but a slight increase in production in Australia.

European wheat stocks have been greatly increased during the p-ct year and

world trade in wheat and flour in 1939-40 may not be as large as in 1938-39. It

is possible, however, that political and military considerations in Europe mic.ht

induce further large purchases during the year. In the European exporting coun-

tries prospects are again for large crops, although significantly below the record

production of a year ago.

A United States wheat crop of 717 million bushels was indicated as of

July 1. This is about 15 million bushels larger than the average domestic dis-

appearance during the past 2 years, and about 30 million bushels larger than the

10-year (1928-37) avcra e. If exports should turn out to be near the 10-year

(1929-37) average of about 70 million bushels, a crop of this size would cause

the carry-ovcr on July 1, 1940 to be significantly reduced below that for 1939,

which is estimated to be about 265 million bushels.

A United States rye crop of 41 million bushels was indicated by July 1

conditions, .c'.njrred with 55 million bushels harvested last year. The current

indication represents an increase of nearly 7 million bushels, compared with the

indication a morrth c:,rlier. The carry-over of rye is estirtmted at 23 million

bushels, compared with 10 million bushels last year, making total supplies about

the sr.me as in 1'38. Th-e apparent disappearance of rye in 1938-39 was about






- 4 -


41 million bushels, compared with about 39 million bushels in 1937-38. In the

important central European producing countries the rye crop again promises to be

large, and overseas demand for United States rye this year is expected to be small.

E:. t rts of United States rye in 1938-39 totaled less than one million bushels.


a The August issue of this report the :
: Summer Outlook issue will contain facts :
: of significance to wheat farmers in plan- :
: ning their seeding programs.




T;,E WORLD WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUNDD.-Total world supplies of wheat increased sharply
from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of increased acreage.
From 1934 to 1936 world supplies declined, following sup-
cessive years of small yields and increased world demand.
Supplies increased slightly in 1937. With the return of
more normal yields on the large acreage, supplies in 1938
were again large the largest on record up to that time
(figure 1).

Total world shipments of wheat averaged 751 million
bushels for the period 1923-37, reached a peak of 913 million
bushels in the year beginning July 1928, and then declined
sharply, largely as a result of the measures taken by im-
porting countries to reduce the use of foreign wheat. For
the year beginning July 1, 1938,world shipments were 598
million bushels.

World wheat prices declined in the period 1924-33 with
the increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in prices
after 1929 was due largely to the general decline in industrial
activity and commodity prices. From the spring of 1933 to the
summer of 1937, world wheat prices moved steadily upward, re-
fleeting a world-wide recovery in commodity price levels, cur-
rency depreciation, and reduced production. The world price
for the 1937 crop remained practically unchanged from that of
a year earlier. In 1938 world prices again declined sharply,
as a result of the record world production and weakness of
demand (figure 1).






s3-33


World crop o:-' s:.; indicate a decrease c o't 0 million el

World wr.at production 2/ in '1 3 1 s nw t7 ntativly nutimnrt d lat
about 4,' -3 mill-on bur.els, which _s Fbout *)r million bushels len ; than the
all-time record coro produced. in 1: I "Ie 1 shows' the ,reau's 1 :.t
tabulation, c-untries of the .o0 -roduction.

The condition of the wheat crop in Carado on J 0ne 3O jccont
f the lon.--time av. :.-_'e yield, as compared with -o oercont on r Jue t, 3.7".
T.is .r. icates a better cron condition on th.i date than in .nv .... since
1' 27. During the first half of July ,-fvorable conditions conti::ed and a
cr.nsiderable part of the crown was headed. Prosoects -or fvorab. i n all
parts of the country except in south-east-.rn -2.-'---.tchoan and in the Peace
River area of Alberta, in which areas tho cror in ex--cted to.be l-'t. ail
storms are re-oort--. to have taken a considerable toll at scattered points over
the Prairi s, but no extensive dtc:.:re 1has n rc.norted. On July 15 the
Dominion i.reau of Statistics re--ort: d that va week of hi.ch temneratnre and -:ery
little precipitation had resulted i. dAteorioration of the crop. Early so'-n
fields in Central and Southern districts of M.anitoba and Soskatchewan :ere bad-
ly burned and the filling. of heads wrs imrwaired. In Alberta, prospects remain
very favorable bu-t '.rther rainfall is e'. d to build un moisture reserves,
which ,7ere heavily dra'.m. upon to support the ranid. :"r -th that Lhs taken -l1-ce.
GrAss&'-ppers are active and threaten da-jmae to the crop, but have, so far,
caused very little d-.'. :e. On the basis of weather and yield studies, the crop
is now forecast at 410 million bushels, -hich would be the lar-.'st cr:n- since
19 2.

ThYe production of wheat in Eurcope, I other than the Danubian countries,
is now placed at 1,213 million bushels, compared 'ith the production last year
of 1,377 million bushels. In Italy there r'o reports of considerable rust.
Har-est is now in active progress and yields are fairly good. Prosa -r'ts in
Germany rr-int to only a moderate crop. F.,.rent rains caused some dan-i, e to the
crop. In France wheat is re---,rted to be developing normally, but the crop is
estimated t! be only about 80 percent of the large 1o30 harvest. In Portugal
unfavorable conditions have caused some d-terioration and the forecast has been
recently reduced. In E.41nd -.I.d Tales a crop of about averr.-T size is fore-
cast. In most other Eur-, an countries, production is cxpc:ted to be smaller
than that of last year. In the Danubian countries a crop of about 414 million
bushels is estimated. This is about 50 million bushels less than th. large crop
cf 193 but is somewhat above *r.-.:.rn:e.

..%rvesting is now in pr'.ress in -arts of the Soviet "n lon. It is
rep-rted that a p-.-.r cr'. is expected in the important Vol.- r,-:-ion.


2/ Excludes the Soviet Union and China.
J/ xFxcludes the Soviet Union.




7s-33


Tnble 1.- Production of trheat in specified countries, 1935-39


C country


: 1936


l: 1937


: 193S :


1939


: 1,000 b. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.
rth A ?eric E'SPHER :
North Am erica; :


626,766 875,676 930,801 716,655
219,218 180,210 350,010 lI 41o,ooo
13.581 10,587 13,425 2/ 13,000
359,565 1,066,473 1,294,236 1,139,655


Europe:
Total excludi.- Danube......: 1,097,061


1,188,177


1,376,710


1,212,505


Danube .
Bulgaria.......,.,,......,: 60,350 64,910 78,951 71,172
Hungary.......,,,.......,,: 37,7S9 72,158 98.,777 104,755
Rumania.. .................: 12,717 138,158 177.154 144,03
Y-goslavia................: 107,422 86,238 111,330 94,000
Total (4).........*....: 384,278 361,464 466,212 413,961
Total E.ur:pe (30)......: 1,481,339 1,549,641 1,842,922 1,626,466
Africa: 6---- _--- 1$2646


20 t.......,...........,,,.:
Algeria..... .,....,,..,,,,:
Morocco... ...... ........:
Timioia.......*.............:


45,700
29,774
12,234
S,083


1 95,791


Asia:
Pales
Syria
India
Jgri t,:-
Chose
Turke


itine................., .: 2,795
and Lebanon.........,.: 15,704
(May estimate)........: 349,813
.......................: 45,192
n........... .. .........: 3,095
y.... ..... .... .... ...: 1419,58 2
T-tal ( )..............: 563 ,181
Total 43 countries.....: 2,999,876


45,376 45.933
33,209 34,941
20,895 23,172
17,637 13,962


117,117


4,682
17,277
362,395
50,410
10,242
132,935
577,991
3,311,222


118,008


1,633
23,674
393,979
45,244
10,483
156,097
631,110


S47,509
/ 44,827
3S.764
]/ 18,555
149,655

5,000
2_/ 21,000
364,560
4/ 52,530
12,285
2/ 146,ooo
(01,375


3,8.36,276 3,517,151


Estimated ITorthern
Hemisohero total, ex- :
clvui::! Soviet Union :
and China........... ..: 310 ,000
3 :tT 3~rT '-7.:: T SC7 : .- V


Arfentina............,.......: 249,193
Australia,...................: 151 390
Union of South Africa........: 12,077
Estimated worldl d total ex-


3,417,L000o 3, 0oo00 3,615,000


184,301 3 5,201 L/
18,01os 154,543 2]/
10.157 17__,093 2/


cl'di.i,- Soviet Union :
and China..............: 3,57,000 3,863,000 4.571,000 4,090,000
Compiled from official data except as otherwise noted.
SBased n weather c-nditions to date. 2/ Approximation. 3/ The International
Institute of Agriculture considers this a maximum. 4/ Excludes one province.


United.States.,,... ... ,,:
Can da... ..* ..... ..... ..

Total (3).... ..........:


245,000
160,000
15,000


Total (4)..............:







- t -


Preliminary estimates indicate product n in northern Africa to *e
ut 32 million hbushels a'ove that of last ;,en:. Increased production, ccn-
..d with that of l'"-, is foreco-t ior ench of the four princi-pl. crounrirs.
A later cable from '-.e International Institute of Agriculture, however, states
t'-'.-t the crown in Al eria and Tunisia has -::fer,-d daminge from rust and excessive
moisture, and that the estimates -yven should b- considered the maximum t- at can


The 19O^ t- 'o7iction in China is forecast at about the some fi-'" as
for the 1907 crop. T::e production in Ja-an, excluding the province of Hakkoido,
is placed at 52.5 million bushels, compar,-d with the 1939 crop of 45.2 million
bushels.

In Argentina most of the wheat has now been seeded and a reduction in
acr-="R of as .i.- as 10 percent compar-x-. vith the 193' s-''ed:ngs my.result.
.cdictions in wheat rcr.-r :e result ,d from unfavorable v'eather during the seed-
inr season, the large wheat stocks on hand, and the low wheat prices. Condi-
tions during the past month hnve been favorable and the condition of the crop
is now good, alth:--u moisture reserves are still below normal in some parts
of the country. On the -'.-sis of weather ard yield studies the crop is now
forecast at about 245 million bushels.

Reports on the condition of the crop in Australia are largely.favorable
but there ar. some complaints of rank -rowth. The acreage is indicated at about
13.5 million acres, coin.ared with 14.1 million acres reported in 1953. Based
on conditions to date, pr,-r'.eution is now forecast at about i60 million bushels.

World c rrry-over prosnpcts indicate increase of about 00 million bushels

Stocks of old 7wh at July 1 seem likely to be almost to 1,200 million
iushels, compared with r'-~ut OO million Lbshels in 1938. Stocks in the United
States are nepcc'ted to be about 265 million bushels, while the crp.lus for ex-
port or carry-over as of July 1 for Canada is estimated at 127 million ,ushels,
for Ar.ecntina 15c million bushels, and for Australia 45 million bushels (table 8).
The estimate for the United States is 111 million bushels above the figure for
1939, while the estimates for Canada, Arc.ntina, and .-A'iralia are C2 million
bushels, 1nd million hel, nd million els larger, respectively, than
a year earlier. Uni~t. Kingdom port stocks, of 22 million b sh.ls, are 10 mil-
lion bushels lar.--r than in 197 and stocks afloat to F-.ropc and on orders
estimated at `7 million bushels, are 9 million bushel larger than a year earlier
(table 8). On the basis of early indications, estimates for Eurcre and all
other countries, excl'.1ir-..-. -.Lot u.ssia a.nd China, are tentatively placed be-
t'..een 500 and 550 .-llion bushels, c--:..r,( v'ith less than 7-0 million bushels
a 'r.'*r-. rr-o.

WL.rd .',rt. in lI'7-T0 about 7_ million bushels nore than a year earlier

It now apr-:.>rs that net imr.rts .:- Eur-Lea: i--..ortin.- cnuntris f r
the year ended June ]", 1939, will be about 420 million bulh-Is (table 11),
c-npered with 3-4 million lunhels for the -ear ended June 30, 133S, T:.d sPip-
ments to non-Eur,-re.-. countries 147 million bushels (Rro-nball), compared with









mr million bushels a year earlier. Imports by European countries reported to
ts are shown in table 11.

S..e Italian Gover-?e:.t has announced the 'boliti n of the corn mixture
in Italian bread flour. However, it is believed that Italy has good reserves
If -.eat and that the new crop may come close to meeting domestic requirements
fo0 1;--0, and it is rot likely that this change in million. regulations will
increase Italy's ta'in--s of foreign wheat.

Exports of %;heat fro:. Argentina, Canada, and the Danube countries have
continued heavy. Tables 7, 9 and 10 show the current movement in international
- heat and flour Tith corn-,risons.

United States exports of wheat and flour made from domestic heat in
terms of grain, for the year ended June 30, 1939, are estimated at 109 million
bushels and shipments to insular possessions abrut 3 million bushels. Of the
estimated 109 million bushels, the United Kingdom and Ireland took about one-
third, and slii1tly more than one-third wont to other European countries.
Over 12 million bushels owere shi-ped to the Orient, principally China, as
a-a.nst 1.6 million bushels last season. Imports by CYina have been heavy
since early 139? as a result of small stocks and high (.'rmostic prices and also
as there hUs been a tendency to invest capital in such commodities because of
unsettled exchange conditions. Exports to Canada and Latin America wore smaller
this season than last.

Sales of wheat ani flour for export by the United States totaled 11l
million bushels for the year ended June 30, 1939, of which about 9 million
bushels were not included in actual exports before June 30. These sales in-
cluded 90 million bushels of wheat and 28 million bushels of wheat in +he form
of flour. Of the total sales for export, sales of approximately 94 million
bushels was assisted by the Federal export program, consisting of about 70
million bushels of wheat sold by the Federal Surplus Conmodities Corporation
for export and 24 million bushels of wheat in the fern of flour upon which an
indemnity ras paid. The average purchase price of the 70 million bushels of
wh.cat was 75.5 cents, and the average ,rice at which the wheat was sold to ex-
porters -as 46.6 cents, which indicates a subsidy of about 29 cents per bushel.
The average indemnity paid on tho 24 million bushels of wheat exported in the
forn of flour vas 22 cents per bushel.

Of the 70 r.illi'n bushels of wheat sold by the Federal S':rplus Connodities
Corporation approximately 2 millionn bushels were ec 35 million '.:-ela from Gulf ports, nnd about 5 million bushels from Atlantic
ports. Tables 11 and 12 show destinations by countries of flour, an.? of wheat
for which la::.ir.o certificates had been returned by the customs service up to
the :idile of July.

World wheat imports in 1L39-40 may be reduced

Eurn -ar.t wheat st',-:ks have been Preatly increased during: the past year
and world trale in wheat and flour in i37-;0 may not be so large as in 1938-39.
It is possible, however, that political and military considerations in Europe
..-ht induce further larre purchases duri "- the year. In the European exporting


7 S 7


- g -









countries r:- ects are no:- fi r c:o,', lt; :"i-h s .-"' icnntly elo
the record rirducti'n if a *"':.r .o. La' cros in tese co entries reduce
Eur"--an ta'-'!.- of c-orses c heat.

C' :-lies o-f b- grains in iGe--y vre lr- e er':-.- so that reo.r -' lss
of the ro ottrn this ye the c utiurn thi yar three will e o ifficulty in meeti'-.- domestic
re* uire:rents, even t'. i- no im~norts are ia Supplies i1 Italy are also
larg ana the ne,? crop C:,"O come close to :.>1ti,- d'rnetic r-'r irc.r..nt. in
19 If the v:hcat harvest in the -.:therlandc t..rn *3 '; now
Stars -rb'able, there should t'e some incra n in crt ta1.'"- *s in the cury-ent
yea-r, S"-.in i-: 'be in the market for n small quantity of ,r -.in.

Liverno- prices decline to record low levels

''-..t prices in imnoortant foreign markets have continued the general
decline which .. the first of June, with Liverpool prices falling to the
lowest level in modern times. During the past month and a half ar,-ing w':eat
crop prospects in the United States and Canada have improved and pro:,' cts in
Eurore have continued favorable. European demand for large r:m-ia-.--..- stocks
of old wheat has been slow and offerings, especially from Argentina, have been
heavy.

World w-heat prices may be .--:rected to be affected ar '.'. r-- cha'.res
in cr.- p developments. If present prospects for larger world suroplics materialize
and demand is not materially cha1.-d, 't rild prices may be exTcectcd to average
lower than in the y2er e.-..1,:d June 30, 1S3 '. 7The, demand for v-:eat, however,
might be affected by a material increase 2 n political tension abroad or by
general improvement in the world economic situation.

Average closi-.- futures prices at Winnipeg, Liverpool, and _-'..?nos
Aires, compared rith prices in domestic markets, are shon in table 4. Ca.--
prices of Ca ..'- d., Argenti;. and Australian .:wheat in Liverpool are sho-:n in
table 2. There have been no cas C"-.'tations for United States wheat in
Liverpool reported recently.


Toble 2.- Prices of 'm;-orrted rhefat at Liv

Date
(Friday) r.)


: Hard _heats : Soft }e, _t
:U. S. (Gulf): Canada : U. S. : :
:iTo.l Dk. Hd.: :-,. 3 :(Pacific) :Arentne :Australian :7-..--. a1' n.
1nter : tM.~th.- it o e ,
: Cents Cents Co ts Cents Cents Cents


M:', 5 : -- 76,1 --
12 : -.0 75.3 --
19 : -- 75.0 --
S: -- 75,3
June 2 -- 75.0 --
9 -- 71,0 --
16 : -- 70.2 -
23 -- 673 -
30 :: -- "..7 --
JulIy : -- .--
14*


6393
62,5
61 ,8
61,7

-.'.9
r:,9
54.9


9,5 --
-9,5
- .S --
,1.4 --
6'.1 --

, 7 -

2.1 --
1.4 --
Lj l_


ws-33






- 10 -


7= D 0 3TIC 1 .-2'.: SI I TT '"'ION

BAC ...'' ..- The carry-over of -.:heat in the United States, which
for the 5 :-ears 1924-'-"- aver:gei about 115 million bushels, in-
creased to a record of about 375 million in 1923. Four small
cro;.s in the ye'.rs following, however, reduced stocks to less
than 100 million bushels by July 1, 1937. In 1938 stocks of old
wheat were 153 million bushels. The domestic disappearance dur-
ing the 10 yt-rs 1928-37 averagr,- about 6?' million bushels.

Wheat exports fror. the United States declined steadily after
the '.,Trld War, and, because of droughts, imports were necessary
from 1934 to 1936. The 1937 domestic crop was greatly in excess
of domestic needs, the Canadian and Argentine crops were small,
and about 100 million bushels of United States wheat were extort-
ed. In 1938 the domestic crop was again large, but foreign de-
mand for domestic wheat has been less favorable because of large.
crops in other exporting countries.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that of
1937 were unusually high in relation to world prices. During
the year beginning July 1936, both world and domestic prices ad-
vanced sharply -,s a result of increased dE.lnd and small sup-
plies. Prices received by producers for the 19c6-37 season av-
era ei 105 cents per bushel, and for the 1937-38 season, 96
cents. Prices during the 1938-39 season have been substantially
below those of a year earlier, largely as the result of the
large world whe at siup-lies.


New crop may total little larger than domestic disap-rarraie

A United States wheat crop of 717 million bushels was indicated as of
July 1. This is 214 million bushels less than the relatively large crop of
K1 million bushels harvested in 1938, and 36 million bushels less than the
10-year (1928-37) average of 753 million bushels. The July 1 indication for
winter wheat was 538 million bushels, which is an increase of 14 .':llion bush-
els compared with the indication a month earlier. The first official indica-
tion for all spring wheat, as of July 1, was 179 million bushels. A total
crop of 717 million bushels is about 15 million bushels lar,-.r than the aver-
,r domestic disappearance during the past 2 years, and about 30 million bush-
els lar.-.:r than the 10-year (1928-37) -:v -rz,je. If exports should turn out to
be near the 10-y,-ar (1928-37) av;r .c of about 70 million bushels, a crop of
this size would cause the carry-over on July 1, 1940, to be significantly re-
due- below that for 1939, which is estimated to be about 265 million bushels.

V:inter wheat.- Preliminary threshing returns indicated that the crop
ws turning, out better than cxpuctcd in Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Illi-
nois. Cool, cloudy weather during June with fr,-quent light showers was also
favorable in th I'orthwest, where drought conditions had developed earlier,


WS-33








- 11 -


: : aspects in this are' improve It : aerall:. On July 1, indi : 'aT
yields : :'.-ed :":-c. 1/2 bushel '.r .r hi~ hr than a month earlier i'. vansa
u'. Illinois to 2.0 bushels hi .. r in C ho. a "and .- 1rT .1ent raina -
lay;ed *heat '. .:vesting in northern .: .-.. and eastern Knslams, where some
loss through ]iodpin, flood a.nd shattering was report d, -ai in much ot tre
eastern Corn it. however, conditions since .uly 1, 1have be. aenr' 1Iv f-
vorable for harve stcinr. Final yields 7ere sli -tly lower th.a. x cted in
Texas, where ..arvesting wa..s bout c-..ler.. v' July 1, and in the V.estera
..-.' are including th- teo of C.c'xico, Tolor-.o, nd '..7 : -. .
stem r.. :.1 has bh;n f'cund in parts of tec hard red : .inter wheat ar- a, t this
-*'. rally mad. its 'appear' *-*c too late to b a fa ctor in -?prejably r ducinr
yields, except in late fi, lds. The quality of the crown is enera:l1' rod.

Spring _*heat.- All spring wv h t production, including durum, estim'ted
at 179.9 million n '.. els, as of July 1, c:.: r.r with 244.2 million bu:h l
harvested on a 20 percent larger acre-.- in I'C":, ;ind the 10-v eer ver. of
192.8 mAillion bush-]s. Alt.-., -h conditions i-"aov_ -:-t,-ri :ly during Jan ,
with relatively cool w, ath r *-. -.rlly and ni pl- rainfa ll over most of the in-
rortant spring wheat area of th North*-r: Plain.s, pro C active yields -" acre
on July 1 were still som.'whUt b.lo, average e in *ll of the important producing
States except North r ik:ota and Mont'na. Starmd were vomowhat thin in much of
th4 ..orthcrn Plains areaa arn straw :.ort. Turur wheat rro'action was esti: t-
cd _t 30.j million i-ushcls compared with 40.4 million bushe1s h'rvested in
19"-, *v.d the 10-:.. .r aer ac, of 35.1 million bushAls. On July 1, yields were
*:-.jected to be a-bout average, although yields by States are 1 to i bushels be-
low those of last year. -. out 32 percent of the pros-. -tive production is in
north h Dakota. The 1.-"',' acreage of all spring wheat for harvest is estimated
,-at 16.4 million acres companred with 20.5 million acres harvested in 19i3 and
the 10-y':-Ar aver'-,a-e of 17.6 million acres. The acreL:e seeded to 11i spri-.;
wheat this y.- was 18.4 million acres, vihich is about 1.1 million acres less
than the r. -orted intentions in March. The acro- r so(ded in 12- was 51'.5
million acres and the 10-year average, 22.4 million acres. July 1 conditions
indicated a probable loss of acr ag'c of about 11 percent, which is sli.-:'tly
less than the 19C. abandonment and about one-half the 10-year -:.' r : .

During early July, weather continued favorable for the dcve lo;,x:-.t of
the spri;.- wh+'t cr... ore recently, the weather has b(en less favorable,
nlthou-1. withoutt m. rk:.d plant deterioration in L.--:ral. Some :-i:.- wheat is
in shock in ..orth L Fkota and 1. :rvest h:.s been comlet.d in south ..-tern South
Dakota. Cc'r-.ide rabl.e spr-' wh-at is being h-rv' st, 1 prematurely to prevent
f'-rther grcasshopp:r d .. Gr Cssopp sr hav. dona soWm hrm. i: North Dakota,
but not extensive.

Only a :' e of stem rust h" di v lo-' d on rri-. wht*t in South D .':ti
and Minnesoti where r ,ist ,nt viritiPs r m.: turinr practically f". of rust
infection, accord .,- to a statement issued by te .' au of >'to:nol :" on July
21. tih t- ".p'-ratures on July 11 _nd 1.. t .-.~- rily' ch"ck :st dev lopment
in ieorth DL.kota where only a trace of infection .:s pres' t, "xcepti'- in lim-
ited localities. A rinklinr of st: m rust could be :ou'd in :il i lds of





- 12 -


susceptible varieties of -'.'h-.t in the western one-third of North Dakota on Ju-
ly 18 but only in the southwest was there d:nr.ger of infection developing to
the Dint where it i,i:ht cause dar-,e. '."'heat in the western part of t'orth Da-
kota was in the medium to hard dough and maturing, rapidly as a'result of re-
ccnt hot weather. No more than a trace of rust could be found on 2urums in
either South Dakota or North Dakota, and further development of the fungus on
durum varieties app1::'s unlikely because of premature ripening. It is not ex-
pected that rust will da7.ag,- wvheat in the Red River Valley of I.innesota and
North Dakota this year excepting possibly in late fields.


Table 3.- Acreag- and production of wheat, United States,
10-year average, 1938 and 1939

Acreage harvested :
Kind of : or to bc harvested : Production
wheat : Average: : : Average: :Indicated
: 1928-37: 1938 1939 : 1928-37: 1938 : 1939
Million I.Iillion million Million Million I.1llion
: acres acres acres bushels bushels bushels

Winter wheat ..... : 38.2 49.7 38.6 560.2 686.6 537.7
Durum 1/ ......... : 3.3 3.5 3.1 35.1 40.5 30.9
Other spring .....: 14.3 17.0 13.3 157.7 203.7 148.0

Total ..... 55.8 70.2 55.0 753.0 930.8 716.6
1_/ :irz..esota, North Dakota and South Dakota.


U. S. stocks of old wheat still estimated at about 265 million bushels

On June 15 stocks of old wheat in the United States were tentatively
estimated at 265 million bushels, including 6 million bushels held for crop
insurance. It now ojppe-rs that United States exports and shipments of wheat
and flour made from domestic wheat, in terms of grain, for the year ended June
30, 1939, will be about 112 million bushels instead of 115 million bushels as
was expected in June. If disar-pe4rance amounts to 704 million bushels, the
June estinmte, this would indicate a carry-over of 268 million bushels. How-
ever, the current figure for exports and shipments includes an estimate for
June and the fi.-ur- for domestic disappearance includes a rather broad esti-
mate of wheat used for feed, which might cause the final figure to vary as
much as or more than 3 million bushels. Accordingly, a revision of the 265
million bushel total has not been deemed justified.

The total estimate of stocks 3/ includes stocks on farms, in country
elev'-.tcrs and :..ills, in cities (commercial stocks), and in merchant mills and
elevators. Stocks of old wheat on farms July 1 were estimated at 90.9 million
bushels and in cities at 67.5 million bushels, making a total of 158.3 million
..,:-1 els for these two items, which compares with 81.3 million bushels for the
s. items a year earlier. Estinm-tes of stocks in country elevators and mills
will be released July 25, and estimates of stocks in merchant mills and eleva-
tore will be available in late July or early August. These will be published
in the A',. -.t issue of the "The Wheat Situation".
7/ Stocks of old crop wheat in the various positions for 1937 and 1938 nre
shown in "The Wheat Situation", February 23, 19J0, pu-r 18.







.73 .33


- 13 -


Domestic, wheat prices remain independently -tr'ng

With the prospective domestic oror only a little larger than the annual
domestic disappearance, with a large proportion of wheat being placed under loan,
and with an announcement of the (-ntinuaticn of the exrert-aid rrgram, d mestic
wheat prices have remained independently ztr ng in the face of very low prices
in f reign markets. The price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kansas City f"r
June 1.?39 was only P cents 1ower than in June 1938 (table 5), even tho-:gh the
price of Parcels at Liverpool was 36 cents lewer. Similarly, the price of
futures at Chicago in June 1939 averaged only 5 cents lower than in June 1938
(table 6), while the price of futures at Liverpool averaged 30 cents lower.

Table 4 shows the relationship of prices in d-r-stic and foreign nrrkets
for the past 3 ye-rs. The price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat in Kansas City in
June 1937 and 193; averaged 1I^ cents below the price of F-rcels at Liverroo1,
while in June 1939, the Kansas City price was 7 cents above the price at
Liverpool, or a total of 25- cents higher than the average June price for the
past 2 years. In the case of futures prices at Chicago and at Liverpool, the
spreti in June was 27 cents. Table 4 also shows similar comparisons with prices
at '.Yinn ipm

Table 4.- Spreads between domestic wheat prices and prices at
Winnipeg and Liverpool, specified periods, 1934-37

Futures per bushel Cash whent -r bushel
: Amount Crhi-..go :Arnunt K'.nsaIs City :Am:u i" U-, 7int. r
ornth and averaged averaged :(Kansas Ci :) averaged
year above : above : a ve
Sirnn ip' :Li-, "ocl :innipeg :Liverpo l I: r-~ :-..
Spt.,- : ;'t.- : Sept.- : Sept.- toba : Parcels
t Oc t : t Oct. Oct. (Winr.ipn.-g) : (Liverpool)
s Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
May
1937 ....4. 3 !14 6 -17 A -
193R *....s 7 -15 -11 -19 -26 -19
1033 9,..: 9 13 5 P 1F 12

1937 *.,.*. 6 -14 9 -17 1 -13
1938 .....: 5 A 9 -13 -27 -24
1939 ..,.., 12 16 F 12 7
Week ended :
July 15
1937 .....: -20 I/
1938......s 6 -13 -11 -18 -21
1039......: 12 11 A 6 1
t







WS-33


Table 5.-Weighted average cash price of wheat, specified markets
and dates, 1938 and 1939

:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :No. 2 Hard : No. 2 : Western
Io.th :and grades :Hard Winter:Dk.H.Spring:Amber Durum:Red Winter: White
or dr-to :six markets:Kansas City:Minneapolis:Minnearpolis:St. Louis : Seattle 11/
:1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939:1938 :1939
1 Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.
Crop yr.:
av.end-:
ing :
Juno 30:106.3 69.9 110.8 69.5 127.9 79.1 76.4 72.5 112.6 69.6 88.2 66.6
Apr. ...: 36.2 72.4 S4.56 69.6 110.5 77.8 100.0 74.3 85.0 76.4 81.4 69.7
May ....: 82.0 80.2 79.7 75.7 105.3 85.6 88.4 79.1 76.9 82.7 77.0 71.8
June ...: 81.3 74.5 76.7 70.9 105.0 84.4 90.0 76.4 74.8 73.4 73.7 72.3
June 3 :74.6 83.9 69.7 79.0 94.8 89.0 75.4 82.0 69.6 84.6 68.2 73.0
10 : 83.9 79.8 77.8 75.5 101.9 85.1 87.8 80.2 72.8 81.2 71.0 72.1
17 : 91.1 76.8 86.7 72.4 115.8 83.7 97.7 75.8 83.0 77.0 77.4 72.8
24 : 83.1 71.8 77.4 69.2 105.6 82.2 92.3 72.7 79.6 75.1 76.3 71.5
July 1 :73.3 70.6 72.9 70.4 105.1 83.5 83.9 74.6 70.7 71.9 72.6 72.6
z : 69.6 69.0 69.4 68.8 97.0 80.9 83.4 72.3 69.1 70.4 69.2 70.7
15 : 69.6 66.7 71.1 65.2 97.6 80.7 83.3 69.2 69.0 68.3 69.4 ---
High 2 : 91.1 83.9 86.7 79.0 115.8 89.0 101.4 82.0 85.7 85.4 82.2 73.0
Low 2/ 69.6 66.7 69.4 65.2 94.8 76.6 75.4 69.2 69.0 68.3 68.2 67.9
1I/ cekly average of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
2/ April 8 to June 17, 1939, and corresponding dates for 1938.


Table 6.- A.'ernge closing price of September wheat futures, specified markets
and dates, 1938 and 1939
: Winnipeg : Liverpool : Duenos : Chicago : Kansas :Minneapolis
1.'onth : l/ : 1/ : Aires : : City a
or date :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 11939
Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.

Apr. ... 80.9 61.7 98.0 61.1 -- --- 81.6 68.5 77.6 64.1 87.1 71.4
l:ay ....: -4.o 65.6 92.3 62.2 --- -- 77.1 74.8 73.3 70.6 80.9 78.4
Ju-.oe ...: 32.9 60.7 86.6 56.5 --- --- 78.1 72.9 74.0 68.5 82.7 76.8
June 3 : 76.9 66.0 81.5 64.0 --- --- 71.0 77.8 67.4 73.7 75.9 81.6
10 :0.1 62.S 84.4 61.6 --- --- 75.4 75.6 72.0 71.4 80.3 78.8
17 : '5.3 61.S :3.6 60.2 --- --- 80.0 73.5 76.1 68.8 88.6 77.1
24 : 65. `o0.2 87.7 58.9 82.9 2?9.8 77.7 70.7 72.7 66.1 85.2 74.5
July 1 : 3.2 60.1 .5.1 59.0 82.72_9.6 76.0 71.8 70.6 67.0 81.6 75.8
8 : 7.s8 52.8 4.6 5".1 80.82?/9.5 72.6 69.2 67.1 64.7 77.8 73.0
15 7.4 54.6 84.8 56.0 7.82/59.5 72.2 66.7 67.0 62.2 77.8 70.6
HiCh 3/ ::-0.0 67.3 99.3 65.2 32.9 2/59.8 82.9 77.8 79.0 73.7 eS.6 81.6
Low 3/ t 7. 5L4. '.1 ~ 6.o ._ _/5. 7 61.o 6 67.0 62.2 75.9 70.1
1/ Co: v.:raions at ioon bl'ing rate of ec.ranco; for October futures.
2/ A. rist futures.
3/ April 8 to July 15, 1939, .-,I correspo .ding dates for 1938.


- ----a





WS-":',


Tjble 7.- Move: t 1 whrat, inludi o'r, fro pr ncipa ortin
countries, 1 5L-., ^ O to 3'' I-- i;*


" *"'.T'o t S "s 7' :: 1fl cia -s -u c *



t__. t.l2'K U h ^ ;ih'-s l':~e i? e n


_..it... .sTates 1/ .

t. ... .... ........
Australi a ........
Soviet Unicn .....

Y'.'-oslavia .......
F.u.:-.. ia ..........
B-lr-:'ia .........
British In.ia ....
Total ..........


S.7 ,0..49 ,r 16 7
: 76,5 152 ,(:'. 69,670 1571,97 ,17 91, 7'" I.Ay g1
b10 '22 --,70 .. 1: ', ? 75,521 96,2-- ,028 Apr.
: .. ,".-;1 4,41 4. "54 1,290 18,6.- 51,5.'.. *
: 14*,-.4 27,426 9,356- 26,658 8,917 2, : 31
7: 17, '34 5.012 14,9,2 4,904 5,219: Ar. 0,".
6,..2 26, -. 32,962 o 7,4 31,55.3 40,21: :ay 31
P,? 7,273 8,484 5,F9 .7,1014 W' : A-r. 70
:2,556 16,571 19,*37 9,418 1.,: 539 Feb.
: 49 '.:' 606, "' 513, C"2_c______. : _
:._ .le1 .:..TL -._'_ "_ ___________
: ____1 .--: ]' '--.9: ; 1 : -.r : ,:r .: .. 1 :, .
:1,00 lc00 1,O00 1,000 1,000 1,OC0 1,C
:bupr;ls 1 ushels bu.,oels bushes bi ushels bushels b.h 1:s


north h A.ncrica2/ .
Cl r:, / ........
,Unitrd States 5/ .
Arx.7e :.t i.-.a ..... ..
A-stralia ........
soviett Union
- F.'. De *-L.d
.;1, 6ia / ...
British India ....
Total S/ .......
Total E ur":, -a.,
shipments 2/ ..
Total ex-Euro-
pean shipments
2/ ............


184,720
'. -,545
. ,589

127,520
42,24-8


: 37,232
:7/I..,677
: 4". ,:.-


245,296
169,835
94 ,157
114,272
102,116
59, .'4

52,8490
6,2 0,5
t60,66C


5,898
3,400
1,480
3,
1,856


2,160
0


5,372
3,100
1,147
4,282
1,459


1,032
0


2,868
--- 4/
504
?,745
1,867
680

1,240
0


: 397, 592 450,784 9,P
:


99,400 116,7:1:


2,640


1/ Includes flour mill d in bond :':.-: forei whe.:t.
2/ Broo:mall's Corn 7:- U* Nwws.
3/ Officii 1 .:-.crts as reported to date, sup ple:nt1 '.t v" r, r ci r-
anc.s of w: eat, a.nd esti::ates of flour shi:. nts.
4/ .'. ek led July g only.
5/ Cffici! rAeports rro iv( "-r ." 16 principal ports only.
6/ lack Soe shi- ntn only.
7/ Of :'cial.
8/ Total of tr...Oe iT'ures includes North A.ieric a as :' .'te- .."11 's but
does not include it:s 2 -.1 .


6, -52
1, 00-'0/
3,C "2
4,209

1,/16


488
1,432
1- ,692


8,210
2 ,100



1,C 3


0
22,'';


.,. .try





- 16 -


Table S.-Wheat surplus for export or
ing countries, United Kingdom -rort
July 1, 1936-39


carry-over in three export-
stocks and stocks afloat,
i/


Position : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 : 1939
: Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu.

Canada
In Canada .....................: 145 45 34 122
In the United States ..........: 15 5 1 5

Argentina ......................: 34 21 36 159
Australia .......................: 37 3 44 45_
Total .................: 231 104 115 331

United Kini.ldom port stocks ......: 10 11 12 22

Stocks afloat to: :
United Kingdom ................: 14 12 13 18
Continent 9....................: 8 12 11 14
Orders ........................: 5 10 12 13
Total .................: 37 45 4 67

Grand total ...........: 268 149 163 39S

l/ Carry-over at the becin-ing of the year (Canada, July 31; Argentina,
Janju.ary 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production,
minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly exports to date.


7S-33





- 17 -


Table 9.-Shi-r.-nts of wheat, incl'diin.- flour from principal exportin-
cou'ntrics, -::recified d-ates, 1937-38 md 19-n -39


Period


Ar ~:tina Australia .


: 1,000
: bu.

July-May ......: 61,116
Week c ndd-
Ju' e 10 ......: 1,01.
17 .......: 2,172
24 ......: 956
July 1 ......: 1,596
8 ......:. 2,700
15 ......: 1,508

Compiled from Broomhall'


1,000
bu.


1,000
bu.


92,536 116,128


4,868
7,804
5,364
3,700
4,282
3,745


4,368
2, 54
3,048
3,272
1,124


1,000
bu.


Danube .1--rth Aj--rica

1,000 1, 00 1, CO 1,.00
bu. bu. bu. -r u.


94,208 35,864. 46,336.171,'(- 226,-,:-L


3,204
1,34o
1,528
1,836
1,459
1,867


24
288
208
848
224
264


1,136
1,36
1,320
2,160
1,032
1, 240


5,312
3,r16
2, :,6
2,640
3,776
2,976


s Corn Trade News.


TrLble 10.-Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,
1937-38 and 1938-39

(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)
Wheat : Tht flour : Wheat including
Period : : flour
: 1937-38 : 1938-39 : 1937-38 : 1938-19 : 1937-38 : 1938-39
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 l'1,-000
bushels bushels barrels barrels bushels bushels

July-May ......: 76,681 80,610 4,575 6,027 98,184 108,937
Week ended- :
June 10 .....: 1,271 1,231 66 67 1,581 1,546
17 .....: 707 554 62 167 998 1,339
24 .....: 1,234 702 28 123 1,366 1,280
July 1 ....: 1,129 1,240 54 51 1,383 1,480
S .....: 1,432 686 50 98 1,667 1,147
15 .....: 1,114 2/ 354 62 2/ 32 1,405 2/ 504

Compiled from reports of the Department of Con':.rce.

I/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not available.
These data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ Preliminary.


7S-33


4, L
5,272
4,440

5,372
2,868






WS-33


18 -

Table 11.- Net imports of wheat, including flour, into
European countries, year beginning July 1, 1937
and 1938


: 9 : 1938-39 : Reported net imports
Country 1937-38 : forecast 1/: July 1 to : 1937-38 193-39
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. : : Mil. bu. Mil. bu.

Belgium ...............: 36 34 : April 30 : 31 29
Czechoslovakia ........: 2/ 1 2/- 1 : March 30 : 2/- 2 3/
Denmark ............... : 6 6 : May j.31 : 6 5
Finland ...............: 3 3 : May 31 : 2 2
France ................: 15 1 : May 31: 14 1
Germany ...............: ) 54 45 : May 31: 4 14/ 36
Austria .......... ....: ) : Feb. 28 : 5
Greece ................: 18 10 : March 31 : 12 g
Ireland ............... : 14 16 : May 31: 13 15
Italy .................: 5 12 : April 30 : -5 9
Latvia ................: 1 0 : March 31 : / (/
Netherlands ...........: 24 29 : May 31 : 22 26
Norway ...............: 7 8 : May 31 : 6 7
Poland ...............: 31 2/- 3 : May 31: /- 2/,- :
Portugal ..............: 1 5 : April 30 : 4
Sweden ................: 2/ 1 2 : May 31 : 2/- 1 2
Switzerland ...........: 14 17 : May 31 : 13 16
United Kingdom ........: 193 215 : May 31 : 173 198

Total imports of :
above .............: 391 403 : 346 363

Spain ............ ..: 16 :
Total imports .....: 394 41Z a :
Total exports .....: 2 4 : : 3 3
Total net imports .: 392 415 : : 343 360

1/ Forecasts by European offices of U. S. Department of Agriculture.
2/ Net exports.
Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.
/ Includes new territory and is therefore, not strictly comparable with
preceding years.
5/ Less than 500,000 bushels.


Compiled from official sources except as otherwise stated.







- 19 -


Table 12.- Destinations of Flour Sold Under the Export'Program,
year ended June 30, 1939


Country of Destination

North America
Canada
Newfoundland

Central America
Guatemala
Salvador
Honduras
Nicaragua
Costa Rico
Panama

West Indies
British W. I.
French W. I.
Dutch W. I.
Haiti
Dominican Republic
Cuba
Virgin Islands

South America
Brazil
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
Venezuela


Barrels Sold


56,636
11,391


90,673
24,622
4,273
50,940
39,148
30,675


45,891
24,471
28,276
39,810
10,484
495,614
12,466


11,838
3,179
178,369
2,595
52,923


Country of Destination


Europe
England
Scotland
Sweden
Denmark
Belgium
Holland
Ge r ms-y
Italy
Gibraltar
France
Greece
Malta
Portugal
Norway
Spain

Asia
China
Hong Kong
Japan
Philippine Islands
Australia
Palestine


Barrels Sold


4,169
34, 247
3,189
1,881
8, 294
458,209
36
3,615
1,016
6, 946
Z95
11
3,271
22,231
2,041


1,891,472
485,065
6
1,o035,238
10
24,675


Other Countries


TOTAL


Wheat Equivalent
in bushels


5,244,994


24,085,811


WS-33






- 20 -


Table 13.- Destinations of Wheat Exported under Export Program,
year ended June 30, 1931 I/


Belgium
Holland
Belgium and Holland J/
Canada
China
Colombia
Cuba
Dominican Republic
France
Germany
Greece
Honduras
Ireland.
Italy
Mexico
Norway
Palestine
Panama
Peru
Russia
Spain
Salvador
United Kingdom
United Kingdom or Belgium or Holland 2/
Venezuela
TOTAL EXPORTED


8.958,497
6,029,653
3,322,897
983,104
6,159,447
155,:55
33, 21
22,504
509,081
1,179,505
39,777
127,670
1,781,536
29,323
2,651,259
324,795
109,266
666
55,416
3,020,756
588,000
190,356
26,817,693
285,000
1,838g
63,388;6b5


I/ Incomplete, Covers only the wheat on which landing
certificates have been received.

2/ Exact destination not known at time wheat was exported.
Ocean bill of lading called for delivery to one or the
other of the countries mentioned.


VS-33






- 21 -


.:- KTr,'P?.- Duringr the pa 't 10 years rye acr-'-,' has
rtr.ctined above the pre-war level, but has been below
the high level reached at the close of the '-.r. The
increase in rye production during the war period was
due largely t- an expansion of rye aicreage into the
sub-humid area of the spring Wheat Belt. Since 19-34
yields have been generally below the aver',e fr the
ye.rs 1910-15 and acreage abandonment s.- m-.'. hat lar:r.
In 19.33, 1934, and 1936 droughts gr,: tly reduced rye
yields, caused he'vy abandonment and reduced suilies
below domestic requirements. 7With more favorable
growing seasons in 1935 and 1937 yields and production
were much above the 10-year average.

United States rye estimate increase on July 1

Growing conditions for rye improved materially during June and the July 1
conditions indicated a crop of 41.5 million bushels, nearly 7 million bushels
more than the indicated production on June 1. The indicated production was in-
creased about l1 million bushels in Minnesota, nearly 3 million bushels in :-rth
>akota, and over 2 million bushels in South Dakota. Prospects were reduced
s mewh.At in Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The Fro.uction of rye in 1938 was
55.0 million bushels, and for the 1928-37 average 36.3 million bushels.

The July 1 estimated acre re for harvest was 4,100,000 acres which com-
pares with 3,979,000 acreas last year and the 1928-37 avert..-' of 3,179,000
acres. This is the second largest acre-.ce for harvest since 1923. The acre:. '
for harvest *..:s reduced from last year in Minnesota, Iowa, and North Dakota. In
South Dakota the acre .goe was about the same as last year while in .'-braska,
Michigan, and Indiana acr-..c-e was increased over that of 1938. Indicated -. ilds
were generally lower than those of 1938 throughout most of the ry, producing
area. In the eastern rye producing States yields were only slightly bul!cw those
of 1738, while in Minnesota, Iowa, the Dakotas, and Ikbraska yields were much
below those of a year ago. Indicated yields were near the 128-37 aver .-e in
practicAlly all sections of the country.

The stocks of ry. in the United States at the beginning nf the 1l '-40
marketing year aro estimated at 23 million bushels, which is considerably above
average (table 14). Last ,'-. r the carry-over was about 10 million bushels. '."ith
a crop of 41 million bushels, indi-ated on July 1, the total .-u1'ply of rye for
1939-40 will amount to around 91,165 million bushels, or about the same as Lst
year (table 14). A supply of this size would be larger than supplies in .'-" ard
1937 but well below the l'rge supply of 70 million bushels in 1-735. Th. ..-..rent
disappearance of rye in 193P-39 was about 41 million bushels, and in 1:.-7-38 it
was 39 million bushels. Of the estimated 41 million bushels disapp--.rnce about
19 million bushels were used for feed, about 10 million bushels for seed, about


WS-33







- 22 -


7 million bushels for food, and about 5 million bushels for distilled spirits
and alcohol.

Present indications are that the supply of rye in 1939-40 will again be
more than sufficient to take care of food and feed requirements, and the carry-
over may be greater at the end of the marketing ye"-r than at the end of the
1938-39 season. In the past 3 years a comparatively large percentage of the
rye crop was fed, as a result of a shortage of supplies in feed grains in some
of those years and the unusually large supplies of rye. In 1937 and 1938 feed
r.air. supplies were more than ample for livestock on farms, but feeding of rye
was heavy as a result of unusually large supplies. Supplies of feed grain will
again be ample for livestock requirements in 1939-40, and the demand for feeders
will probably be no n-i.ru favorable than for the past 2 marketing years.

Rye exports in 1939-40 may a :ain be small

Tlh'- European rye crop 4/ in 1939 will again be large but some:.'hat below
the all-time record crop of 1938, according to present indications, and overseas
demand for United States rye this year may, accordingly, again be small.

Estimates of production are available for only a few countries at the
present time, but condition reports indicate a substantial decrease, compared
with last year's crop. In Germany, which is the largest European producer, 4/
prospects are still for a good crop but recently weather has caused some
deterioration to the crop, and prospects at this time arc not quite so favorable
as they were a month ago. In Poland, which is the next country in importance in
rye production, the condition figure is a little above average. In Hungary,
Rumania, and Bulgaria the combined total of the estimated production is about .6
percent above the 1938 crop in these countries. The condition in Lithuania is
also a little above average.

Rye price decline

The weekly average price of No. 2 rye at Minneapolis declined from 55.2
cents per bushel for the week ended June 3 to 42.1 cents per bushel for the
week ended July 15 influenced primarily by an improvement in the prospects for
the 1939 rye crop. Prices for the week ended July 15 were 12 cents lwv.er than
for the corresponding week of 1938 and only about 3 cents per pound above the
low .vcekly average for the 1938-39 marketing year reached in September. The
large supply cf rye for 1939-40, together with comparatively large supplies of
feed grains, is apparently the principal price depressing factor in the current
situation. The level of rye prices during the next few weeks will be influenced
by further changes in the prospects for the rye supply, c-anr.gcs in the prospects
for other grain supplies, and changes in business conditions and in industrial
demand.

/ E l:< u.',.s ti,_'. Soviet Union.


".73-33







- 23 -


:-.rle 14.-.'ot Sunply and distribution, United Statct, 1935-39


Y~r :___
* -,ir--_: Stoc.:..


July


1935

1936

1937
19
1939 :
1939 *_/ :


:norcial: Fam :
:July 1 :July 1 :


1,000


1,000
bu.

5 560o


1,000
bu.


Supply


: Distribution


: : : : : :Ap.pre
:Prodlc-: In- : Total : ::- : : diF-
Total : tion :ports : supply :ports :Stocke:app. -"
: : : : : : onc


1,000
bu.a


1,000 1,000
bA. bua.


1,000 1,0CO 1,000
bua. bu. bu.


2,723 11,2S3 5S,597 2,266 72,146


6,379 15,920 22,299 25.319 3,943 51,561


1,4o6

1,000


4,4So 5,s86 49,830

g,699 9,699 55,039


7,3J)4 15,682 23,066 41,496


1,000
Iou. _


9 22,299 49,:-3

249 5,886 45,' 6


I/ 55,716 6,573 9,699 39,439

I/ 64,738 3/784 23,066 40,888


64,552


_/ Loss than 500 bushels.


Prolininary.


t




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