Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00044

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UKNI '"' S.-'AT.-S '^F., .. '. _. ..: 6.- _--.-
3 ur -,! of Ak-: clu lt i=rn onoi.ics
W, .i :ton

W5-31 May 25. 1939

T :E W H E A T S I T UATI 0 17
Ir.:l u'i- 7-- p : ------------

S z:?- arV

A ller world wheat crop is in prospect this year. Acre-.w:e has

been reduced-principally in the United States---and r-:rorts of gro%,ir.,

conditions s'jgest a world crop IJ somewhat smaller than the large crop of

last year. This would at least nrartly offset the much larger c-irry-over in

prospect on July 1, 1939, as compared with last July. Prices have advanced

in recent weeks, notably in the United States,.where current quotations are

the highest since early last summer. Domestic prices have advanced largely

on reports of poor gr:o'.ing conditions in parts of the Southwest and drought

conditions in the spring wheat area.

The acreag-: of wheat for harvest in 1939, in the 23 countries reporting,

is estimated to be about 192 million acres, compared with 206 million acres

in these countries last-year. Reduced n-cre_ ''s in the United States and in

India account for the entire reduction. The totals for 15 -arop-?n countries

reporting and for Northern African countries indi.atec increases in acrepge.

In Canada a slight incre.rse in acre- -e of spring wheat is in prospect.

Growing conditions in Cn"-ida are generally less favorable this

season than last. Crop conditions in Euore are varied. Prospects in

western Europe seem less fa-.or.-ble than at this time last .ye-r, out in



I/ All references to world production rnd 3to:'kc in this report excl-ude
Soviet u.isi-. and Chir.n, except where noted.









WS-31 2 -

the exporting countries of the-Dathe Bsirn, and in Italy, the outibok isa

famormble. The outturn in Northern Africa is also expected to be good.

In many sections of Argentina Arovcght h~s interfered with the seeding of `thl

crop and the total acreage is expected to be smaller than that of last year.

In some areas of Australia, also drought is restricting seeding.

In the United States, drought throughout most of the spring wheat

belt in April continued during the first 3 weeks in May. Rainfall in the

first 3 weeks of May was only about one-third of normal in much of this area.

It is yet too early to predict the yield of spring wheat, but present.indica-

tions are for a yield no higher than the average of the past 10 years.

(This period includes a number of drought years.) With this assumption,

and with the winter wheat crop indicated on May 1 at 544 milli-on bushels,

the wheat crop this year would total about 700 million bushels. A crop

of this size, together with the prospective carry-over of about 275 million

bushels, which includes insurance wheat, would give a total domestic wheat

supply for 1939-40 of slightly less than 1 billion bushels. This compares

with a supply for the 193E-39 season of 1,094 million bushels.

During the past week the Commodity Credit Corporation announced a

wheat loan program for 1939 similar to that of 1939. Loan rates represent

from 75 to 80 percent of the average price received by farmers for their

wheat during the past 10 years. The rates are equivalent to between 54

and 55 percent of p-rity. (Parity on April 15 was 111.4 cents). With'

a larger-percentage of wheat farmers eligible for loans this year, the

program may- give more support to wheat prices than it did last year.


d







- 3 -


TH- WORLD V-'A2 SITUATION IN 1935-39

-ACKGMOUNID.- Total world -uprnlies of wheat increased
sharply from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of in-
creased acre;ae. Fro:.i 1933 to 1S6 world supplies de-
clined, f'-loving successive years of small proruction
and ince. .ed world de"-,nl. worldd supplies increased
slightly in 1937 and sharply in 19T8, when supplies
totaled 5,191 million usi'.Ies,-the largest on record.
Total world shipments of wheat averaged .751 million
b-is'.-.ls for the perici 1923-37, retched a peak of 913
million bushels in the year begir.ing July 1928, andl then
declined sharp]. ', larsly as a result of the n-'-isurc's
tcfLen by importing countries to reduce the use of foreign
wheat. .
Durin.: the period 192h4-33, world wheat prices de-
clined, chiefly as a result of the _--:neral decline in in-
dustrial activity and commodity prices. World wheat
pr:i es moved steadily upward fror the springg 'of 1933 to
the sum-imer of 1937, reflecting a world wi'ed -recov-ry in
cormmodity price levels and reduced 'prodtuctiori. The world
price for the 1937 crop remained practidally ifnchin.ei from
that of a year earlier. In 193g world prices 'declined
sharply, due to increased world production and weakness of
demand.

Smaller world wheat cron in prospect

The acreage of wheat for harvest in 1939, in the 23 countries reporting,
(Table 1) is estimated to be about 192 million acres, compared with 206
million acres in these countries last year. This indicates a reduction of 7
percent from the acreage harvested in 1935. Last year the acreage in these
23 countries r-presented about 85 percent of the total wheat acreage harvested
in the Northern Hemisph:-re, excluding Soviet Russia ,and China. Reduced
Pcreages in the United States and in Indir. account for the entire reduction.
The totals for 15 -uron.:-r. countries reporting and for Northern African
countries indicate incre:-.ses in acreage.

Acreage of all v-,-.t for harvest in Canada, based on intentions to plant
spring wheat, and winter wheat acreage remaining for harvest, is virtually un-
changed from that of last year. The Dominion*Bureau of Statistics at Ottawa
reports, as of May 1, that the 1939 intended acreage of spring wheat in
Canaia is 25,335,700 acres, compared with the 1938 harvested acre-ge of
25188,9400 acres. Spring work in the Prairie Provinces was nearly normal `y
May 1. Since then the weather has been favorable for field work, but less
favorable for germination and plant development. Secd-ing is further advanced
than at this time last-year. Soil moisture has been reported as low in southern
Manitoba and central and southern Alberta. Severe d-amn.e from dust storms
has been reported from parts of Saskatchewan. Factors favorable to the crop
are the large percentage of the crop sown on la-nd which was summer-fallowed
last year, nnd the increase- seedings of rust-resistant varieties.


WS-31






- 4-


Table 1.- "Wheat acreage in specified countries, 1937-39
(acreage sown, except as otherwise noted)
Country and item : 1937 : 1938 : 1939
------;------------------ --------~~---VC-~ --- -- -


W".eq t
United States .
Winter /......................
Spring /.......... .... :
Canada, all wheat 1_............
Total (2 countries).........:


I.uOD acres

46,978
17, 444
25, 570
89,992


1,000 acres

49,711
20,510
25,930
96,151


.1000 acres


38,936
2 16,600
37 25,993
81,529


Belgium /1....... ..... .........* ..
Czechoslovakia _/5j.............:
Enrland and Wales ...............:
Frunce 6 .. .. ........... ...:
Germany .............. ...:
Greece .... .. ....... ......... .:
Italy ... ....... ...... .......:
Latvia _/........................:
Lithuania 1.....................:
Poland 4/........................:
Portugal 4/......................:
Total (11 countries).......:
Bulgaria 4/....... .... ...,,:
Hungary .5/ ............ ......
Rumania ........ ......
Yugoslavia 4..................:
Total (4 countries).......,.:
Total (15 European countries)
Afri ca:
Morocco ......... *. .... ....*:
Algeria ......................:
Tunisia ........... ..........:
Egypt .. ..... ....... ..., ..... I
Total (4 countries).........:
India (May estimate).........*....:
Japan ..........................:
Total (23 countries)........:
Estimated Northern Hemisphere total,
excluding Soviet Russia & China :


422
1,337
1,732
12,772
4,579
2,117
12,909
170
379
3,590
1,219
41,226


428
1,426
1,807
12.353
4, 577
2,062
12,530
167
357
3,801
1,2367
40,7744


446
1,4 1
1,664
12,249
4,714
2,320
12,840
180
361
3.835
/ 1, 421
41s440


2,845 2,874 ,025
4,054 4,398 / .374
7,964 8,797 8,649
5,335 5,337 5,236
19, g8g 21,406 21,284
61,112 62,150 62,724

3,027 2,906 8/ 2,990
4,311 4,161 ,/ 4,460
2,429 1,667 2,125
1, 421 1,470 1,503
11,18 10,204o 11,078


33,049
1,776
197,117


234, 100


35, 343
1, 777
205,625


34, 692
1,830
191,853


239,60o


I/ Acreage harvested or for harvest. 2/ Acreage for h-rvest not yet officially
estimated; intended nlantings less average abandonment for 1929-38, excluding
the years 1934 and 1936, when abandonment was heavy, 3/ Intentions to
plant spring wheat, plus winter -,ie-t remaining for harvest. _/ Winter wheat*
V/ New boundaries. Figure for 1937 is an estimate b-ised on the percentage
relationship between the old boundary nareago in 1937 nr.d 193g. 6/ Area sown
up to Jr.u-ry 1. J/ Excluding Austria. g/ Estimate of the Paris office
of the Department of Agriculture. 2/ Estimate of the Belgrade office of the
Department of Ae-riculture.


W3S-31






- 5 -


Crop conditions in Bel/dm, the Ietherlardsa, Western Germriany, the
Scandinavian countries, qnd lFrance are still below average, and the 7-rcu-'tion
in these countries may be expected to be considerably below the record crop
of 1938.

In I-.1 the win'- wh-'.L is reported to be in good to excellent condi-
tion. In I l- nd ani VW _, cold wath-r drinr t-.'e last of April checked
the growth of the crop ', while the condition is now -.:er.lly sati factory,
in some parts of the country the wheat is discolor i1. The cor.nition of the
winter crop in Poland is a little above average. Goniiti.-.s in t'-e -r.orb'?
Basin count tries co.xtinue favorable. The crop in ?-_'-LgEi- is reported in
excellent c'-iitic-.. Cnr.itions in both Hungary : n are very
favorable. -'ivat> stimates in unmarta place the pro. tive wheat crop at
a higher fi-su th-n the r. cord crop of 1938.

In the central part of Soviet Russia, ,nd in parts of the UT kr-inr,
winter crop- have suffered from unseasonably cold weather. General rains are
needed for the prop,-r development of both winter ?nd sri .- crops. The
seeding of spring crops has becn making slow progress :-icently.

Crop prospects in northern Africa are, as a whole, favorable. In
Indi the harvest is in progress. The second. estimate of production is
3b4,500,000 bushels, or about 7 percent less than the record crop of last .-e-r.

The Bureau's office at Shanghai reports that the crop in Jr-an may
exceed that of last year by 11 percent, if favorable weather should prevail
to the end of the growing season. The Shanghai office reports that informa-
tion relative to the crop in China is very indefinite, but that indications
point to a crop larger than the small one of last year. Unsettled conditions
restrict the movement of wheat to the large milling centers.

In Argentina there have been numerous reports of delayed seeding,
because of drought conditions. The office of the Agricultural Attache in
Buenos Aires reports that early sown wheat in the Territory of La Pampa is
a total loss, because of the drought. The condition of the crop is also poor
in Southwestern Buenos Aires. In General, it is expected that the acreage
seeded in Argentina this year will be smaller than that of last yea-r. In
Australia seeding is making fair progress, although parts of the south are
too dry and parts of New South Wales are suffering from excessive moisture.
World wheat trade continues heavy
Shipments of wheat from Argentina, Canada, and the Danubian countries
continued considerably larger during the last half of April and the first half
of May than in the snmt2 period a ye"r ago. There has apparently been c-ioe im-
provement in demand from the United Kingdom, as Gre-.t Britain h-.s tended to in-
crease imports at slightly higher prices.
The total surplus of wheat for export in Ar;entina on M4 y 1 was about
180 million -.ushcls, almost four times th,, surplus for e:x crt on ti.,t date last
year. The surplus of wheat for e:.po rt fr.:m Australia on May 1 was estimate at
59 million bushels, or 13 million bushels below the surplus of lnat yc-'r, ar:i
about 10 million bushels below the average for the past 5 ye rs. The: C.nad.i -n
surplus for o:-port on May 1 was much lar*-r than in either of the pnst 2 ;.-ers,
but considerably smaller than the large surpluses for export in May 1935 :)ni
1936.


WS-31






S-31


-6-


Exports and shipments of wheat from important exporting countries
durin- the period July 1 to early May are shown in tables 9 and 10. These
fir-:res indicate no material revision in the forecasts of exports from
these countries made in 'he February issue. Total world exports for 1938-39
were then forecast at 564 million bushels, 10 percent larger than the ex-
ports in 1937-38. The increased movement so far this year has resulted
from larger shipments from Canada, Argentina, and the Danubian countries.

United States exports of wheat and flour made wholly of domestic
wheat in terms of grain totaled 85 million bushels from July 1, 1935, through
March 1939, and shipments to insular possessions were about 2 million bushels.
This conoares with exports of 76 million bushels during the same period of
last year. Total errorts of wheat and flour made wholly from domestic wheat
in the 1937-38 marketing year were 100 million bushels.

Table 2.-Wheat surplus for export or carry-over in three exporting
countries, United Kingdom port stocks and stocks afloat, May 1,
1936-39 lj

Position 1936 : 1937 :193 1939
Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
Canada
In Canada ................: 203 68 45 153
In the United States .....: 12 10 1 1

Argentina ..................: 42 34 49 183
Australia .................. : 51 56 72 59
Total ..................: 308 168 167 396


United Kingdom port stocks .:

Stocks afloat to:
United Kingdom ........... :
Continent ................ :
Orders .............. :
Total .. ........... ....:
Grand total ............ :
I/ Carry-over at the beginning
January 1; Australia, Deconbe
minus domestic utilization fo


10 12 10 24


14 14 15 11
10 24 12 15
s 1 15 _
42 63 52 57
350 231 219 453
g of the year (Canada, July 31; Argentina,
r 1 of the previous year) plus production,
r the year, minus monthly exports to date.


Foreign prices i:.Trove slightly

After dec'iniir,,g from JrLnuiriy to early April, wheat prices in foreign
markets hav: inmrovod slightly since mid-April, probably due largely to the
unfavorable rospcts for the United States and Canadian wheat crops, and
to sorm e::t ~. to the less favorable prospects for the PErc'oan crop. The
general -ir .d1 f foreign prices during the next few months will be affected
primarily y canoes in prospects for the Nlorthern Hemisphere wheat crop
Lr.d to soln e:tent -y cha-.,'es in w ~.thcr conditions affecting the Ari-::tir.e
and Australin cr"ps. The Euar:.poen political situation recently has bccone
a le. s important factor in the world wheat situation. Unless new t-d :more
critical developments occur it will continue as a potential rather than an
active factor for the next few months.






WS-31


The .: kly av r: prices of wheat at force: ; v.vrkets have ad-
vr-'c' Ics1 than prices: at doreitic n2rkets .uri- the p'.:t month. Prices
of nost clnss:s of w:hets at Livernool ,-ivr:.c0c about 3 or 4 cents per
,uch.',l fro'. late April to the middle of !M'y. In thi-s s-.e period w: v 1ly
average prices L.t domestic markets adv.nccd 6 to 3 c nts, M-hy '.it uec at
Raonos .irc remained practically umch.-.,:-c, ani W..:kl- avcwiP'e prices of
.'.y fatur.r-, at Wi.-.ir:- a.v'nce'd about 4 cents per buchel.

Tnble 3.- Prices of inported wheat at Liverpool


: Hard wheats :s
: U. S. : Canada:


Dat e
(Friday)


vo 4
10

25
Dec. 2
9
16
23
30
Jmn. 6
13
20
27
Feb. 3
10
17
24
Mar. 3
10
17
24
31
Apr. 7
14
21
28
May 5
12
19


(Gulf)
o. 1 Dk. Hd.
Winter
C -t s


2/ 55.0
2/ 55.6
2/ 59.5
2/ 59.2
65.6
*_/ 63.5
64.9
68.0

66.5
66.8
66.6
67.9
6-.7
68.1
67.7


Soft wheats


No. 3: U. S. :Ar t-. t ine: Austr -1 -.:R Ranian
Manitoba:(Pacific) Rosafe : _/ :
I/ : White : : :


Ccnts

68.4
69.7
72.0
74.4
76.0
76.6
75.5
73.6
76.3

76.0
75.9
75.3
76.3
76.0
74.3
76.2
75.5
7--
74.8
73.1
74.6
75.3
73.9
72.4
73.9
76.1
75.3
75.0


Cent r

67.7
63.s
61.0

62.8
64.4


Cent s

I/ 58.8
3/ 61.6

65.3
65.8

62.6
62.3
63.2

61.8
62.4
62.9
69.4
63).6
61.9
62.2
60.1
60.1
5S.6
57.8
58.5
58.9
58.9
58.9
60.3
60.7
63.3
62.5
61.8


Cent -

68.4
66.7
66.2
66.7

69.3
64.2

65.4

66.9
67.1
73.9
68.7

67.
66.6
64.9
64.5
61.6
59.6
62.2
61.4
62.9
65.1

6S.5

69.5


Cent s

















53.8
52.0

50-.
54.8
54.9
j.6


Kj Empire w'.at qualifyir.,n
(apoprxi7atl'ng 6 cents per
Agroe:.ents of "ov 'Tber 1932
2/ No. 2 Yellow H-rd Wintex


for Imperi.al Preference was
bushel) prior to January 1,


,xc'.pted fron duty
1939, under Ottawa


3/ Banrusso. 4/ 1'). 2 Dark Hard Winter.


---i


- 7 -








T-E DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION


BACKGRC'I-D.- The carry-over of wheat in the United States,
which for the 5 years 1924-23 averaged about 115 million
bushels, increased to a record of 375 million in 1933. Four
small crops in the years following, however, reduced stocks
to about 100 million bushels by July 1, 1937. The domestic
disappearance during the 10 years 1928-37 =veraged about
680 million bushels.

Wheat exports from the United States declined steadily
after the World War and because of droughts, imports were
necessary from 1934 to 1936. The 1937 domestic crop was great-
ly in excess of domestic needs, the Canadian and Argentine
crops were small, and about 100 million bushels of United States
wheat were exported. In 1938 the domestic crop was again large,
but foreign dio.and for domestic wheat is less favorable because
of large crops in other exporting countries.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that of
1937 were unusually high in relation to 7:e.ld prices. During
the year beginning July 1936, both world andi dcmicstic prices
advanced sharply as a result of increasedO d:n:iL. and small
supplies. Prices received by producers for the 1936-37 season
avornr ed 103 cents per bushel, and. for the 1937-35 season, 96
cents. Prices during the greater part of the current season
have been substantially below those of a year earlier.

Slight decrease in winter wheat prospects

A winter wheat crop of 543,928,000 bushels was indicated by May 1
conditions. This is a decrease of .5,291,000 bushels, or about 1 percent
from the April 1 indications.! Production in 1938 was 686,637,000 bushels,
and the 1920-37 average was 560,160,000 bushels.

The acreage of winter wheat remaining for harvest is estimated at
38,936,000 acres, or 22 percent below the 49,711,000 acres harvested last
year. This -.creago, however, is 2 percent above the 10-year (1928-37)
average of 38,160,000 acres.

About 15.7 percent of the 46 million acrcs sown last fall has been
abandoned, leaving about 39 million acres for harvest. This is consider-
ably larger than the 11.8 percent Abandonnont last year, but is below the
average for the past 10 years. Aci-'eae abandonment was greater than last
year in practically all sections of the country except in the Rocky Mountain
States. It was estimated that about 24 percent of the acreage seeded in
E :rsas last fall would be abandoned, about 60 percent of the South Dakota
acrea:-c:, about 27 percent of the Toxas acre-ge, and about 17 percent of the
Nebraska and California acr.nges. These abandornmnt fi-ures include acreage
loss by winter-kill, acr ago, diverted to uses other than for grain, and
some diversion due to adjustments in seeded acrcr.-c to ncct the require-
ments of the Agricultural Adjustment Act.







WS-31


Th, M--.y 1 -ro.eoocts indicate a pro-le ield of 14.0 b 1.s.e -r
acre. The averaw-r, yield per harvest .d acre in 197 -' 13.. .bushels a.1
for the period, 19'7-37, was 14.5 bushels oer acre. while the yield eor
acre on M.. 1 was indicated to be cli htly hi '..1 r than a year ".,' in "'*r..
of the Great Plain; States, abIandon:.:.t in is area has b-en :-eater, "'-n
the yield er seo d acre will :.*'obly '. ss than in 19. '. In ".r.tana,
Idaho, Colorado, 7?yo:.ing, indie: .' yi ds r acr: for ha-iest are
--low those of b1c year but are gen.'ally above aver- In the F?-eific
Coast States, indict'-. i elds ':.re blow av- r,,o and so below yilds a
y'ar aoo.

Since Hay 1, wo~.thr conditions have b, -r a.vorbl e for the ,.rovrth
of the wint wheat cro- in Missouri 'and in most of the area cost of the
1.:issi :-i;" .iver. Whil rain continued considerably below aver'..- in
Te: -as and v'stern Oklahoua from l1ayl 1, there have b-cn one or two -'od
.',:.neral rains in this area which have tended to arrest -.ry fatherr I :;.ae
to the winter wheat crop. In the western two-thirds of Kansas o--.1 in
Iebraska, rainfall during the first 3 weeks of May was- less than on-third
of normal and the 'hoat crop in this section has chown some further T--
terioration since .a.ny 1.

Unusually dry weather 1has prevailed throughout the greater part of
the spri;. wheat belt since :.:r 1, an:" prosocts are unfavorable in :.:i.-.esota,
where sonm of the jr-.in is r-p.orted to have been blown out of the ground.
In Montana, Nebraska, and the Dakotas, there has boon little rain since M.ay 1
and rainfall during April was well below norm.al. .'.though no serious d--:.-.-e
to the spring wheat seedirn's has been reported for the entire spring '..-at
area so far, favorable development of the crop is dependent upon rai..s in
the immediate future. 11o reports have been received indicating infestation
of black rust so far this season. The number of -rasshopper c-3s is report-
ed to be ur.u-ually lar in.i eating that there nay be considerable grass-
hopper d-.:- 0 unless the Government control program is effective.

2,. change in cstimatc of July 1 carry-'ver

,7..-at stocks in the U.lit.d States on April 1 were estimated at 447
million bs ,-hls, about 115 million bushels 1".r -:r than on that date last
year. T-ct'1 stocks on January 1 were estimated at 656 -i'llion
bushels, indicating a total dis-'ppearrice of 209 million bushels. T'.o
disappearance -.uri.' the pericl, January-March, last year amounted to 201
million bushels, -'d 2 years ago, when supplies were small, the di .. ear-
ance during this period was 172 million bushels. About 33 million bushels
of this quantity wore exported, or 'Orout 3 million bushels more than in
the first quarter of 1938. ?'-: large April 1 stocks are not si '.1ficantly
different from expectations to justify a c-i..-c in the estate f the
carry--3ver on July 1, 1939. This estimate as published in the Aoril issue
of the Wheat Situation is 275 million "u:..els, and inclu ..-s .: "ut 6 million
bushels rf vw-.. at hold for crop ir.nirance.






ws-31


- 10 -


Table 4.-Wheat: Stocks in the United States, April 1,
1932-39
Position 1932 1933 : 1934 1935 : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 1939

1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bu. bu. bu. bu. bu, bu. bu.
On farms com-:
bined with
interior
mills ri-.:d
elevators ...:241,654 279,080 206,560 166,787 148,750 110,211 198,145 281,736
Commercial ..:207,215 135,552 97,132 51,882 49,919 34,741 54,426 82,689
Merchant mill:
stocks and :
stored for :
others ...: 91,420 100,267 20 74,852 72 046 65,983 79,851 82,481
Total ....,:540,289 514,899 395,412 293,521 270,715 210.935 332.425 46.906
1/ Bureau of Census figures raised to represent all merchant mill and elevator
stocks.

The 1 domestic supply expected to be less than 1,000 bushels


nhile it is too early to forecast spring wrheat yields, the present
lack of moisture in the greater part of the spring wheat belt indicates that
yields of spring wheat -this year probably will again fall below the average
yields during the past 20 years. Yields may not be materially above the
average of the past 10 years, which contains a number of years when drought
conditions substantially reduced the size of the crop. If spring wheat
yields are about equal to the past 10-year average, and with a winter wheat
crop as indicated above, the total production of wheat in 1939 would be
about 700 million bushels. A crop of this size would be only 20 million
bushels above the average domestic disappearance for the past 10 years,
and would be 10 million bushels below the indicated domestic disappearance
in 1938-39. Production as indicated above, together with the above indi-
cated carry-over, would result in a total domestic supply of wheat for
1939-40 slightly less than 1,000 million bushels, compared with 1,o84
-illion bushels in 1938-39.

Table 5 shows the supply and disposition of wheat for the years
1932-33 to 1938-39. The figures for 1935-39 are partial forecasts.
Latest figures on sales of wheat for cxport would indicate that the ex-
ports of hcat for 1938-39 may be slightly larger than shown below,
depending on how much of the wheat sold is exported before July 1. The
figure on exports and shipments for 1938-39 listed below as 103 million
bu::h-ls, applies to domestic wheat including flour. Three million bushels
is included as the estimated quantity '..)ich will be shipped to insular
possessions. The quar.tity of wheat milled from year to year remains
comparatively stable, mad the variation in domestic disappearance re-
presents largely a chanc,- in the quantity of wheat fed to livestock from
one year to another.







- 11 -


Table b.- f'.''rlv nd distribti'n f wheat in continental united 3t'' e,
19c2 to 1. ?
C r r; 1 : r ~ :: -,
S: n ir.riz:. C tt.k. :. ew : L rts : :and shi: -;: t :; arae
July : July 1 : cri : / : JtuL1 I/: un :
': .'lI :in M illi : Lion Million I. lion Million Mil li n
:bushes bushe,' bushels bushels 1 :;hels bushels bushels

With new wheat in commercial and merchant mill stocks
193 : 7 3/ 1,132 35 378 71q
1933 : 7? 1~2 930 "7' 27 .
1934 : : 26 16 816 13 48
1935 26 34 ?8 7 1-
1936 : 1 627 34 803 12 103 (.'
1937 : 103 876 3/ 979 103 173 703
1938 : 173 931 3/ 1,104 103

With only old wheat in all stocks nocirion
1937 : 83 S76 3/ 959 103 153 703
1938 153 931 31/ 1,o4 103 275 706


j/ From reports of For:ign and Domestic Cormmerce of the United States Imports
include full-duty -:e at, *.h"pt paying a duty of 10 percent ad valorem, and
flour in terms of :.'-L't. Exports and shipments include regular exports
plus shipments to Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, and
include whert and flour made wholly from domestic wheat.
2/ Balancinr i.:-".
3j Less than 51 ,0C00 bushels.

m',''"st ic "wb',e-, j "r.c,.- ,.da',v .... sccn r- r ".'

The shar7 a"-r.ce in c-sh prices of wheat at domestic markets durir..C the
last half of April and early May was apparently due largely to the development
of drought conditions in rather wide areas of the winter and spri'- wheat belts.
While widespread damage to the wheat crop has not yet become apparent, these
unfavorable conditions, together with the reduced 1939 acreage, indicate the
possibility of a small wheat crop. The weekly average price of P-. 2 Harl
Winter wheat at Kansas City advP-.co" from 69 cents for the week ended April
15 to 76 cents for the week ene1 M.%' 20. Since advances in domestic wheat
-rices were accompanied by only slight increases in foreign prices, the dis-
parity between domestic and foreign prices increased from the middle of A'ril
to the middle of May.

Tr. course of domestic wheat prices during the next few months will be
inflvu_-ced pri--rily by further developments in the growth of the spring and
winter '-h"at cr. s. If conditions are suc'- as to result in a 197 or r near
or below our normal domestic consumption requirements, domestic wheat prices
**- be *: ected to continue substantially above an export parity level. If
production is above our normal d.:-.estic requirements, prices will be influenced
to quite an extent by the export subsidy program.


'.;J.C-31







- 12 -


TA.. a3 ;,. -o'. loan -r- -r ,m

A whet _lon 2rra* m for 1939 similar to that of 1978 has been
announced by the Commr.dlty Credit Corporation. The principal changes
in the program are: (2) U:,' :a adjustment in rates to far.-r.rs in the
Great Plca:n area and t PL.c fic Northwest, (2) increase in rates at
coutr ci' ts relate 'o r ates at terminal. :. rlcets by 1 cent per busl' 1
in thse ar. s where th-b loan values are computed on the basis of term-
inal -rices, (3) increao.,e in rates on Hard Red Spring, Hard Red Winter,
anrd -:.rd f rIte heat to include an allowance for protein "?remiums where
farmers c:'. obb i: rctein tests or certification of protein cont nt of
their wh> t.

U:'-' tohe nw provisions, if No. 2 is used as tire base tr--de,
-"h.--t gr di .g No. 1 will receive a -'remi'um of 1 cent -cr bushel. Where
No. 1 is used as the base, the loan on No. 2 would bo 1 cent per bushel
less, the loan on No. 3 would be 3 cents less, No. 4 would be 6 cents
less and 1-)>. 5, 9 cents less.

Th,.- oan rates for 1939 are e,'iivalent to bet.-reen 54 ;rnd 55
percent of parity, which was 111.4 cents on April 15.

The rates announced for terminal markets are as follows: .o. 2
Hard Winter, Kan.z:-z City, 77 cents, Omaha 76 cents, Chicago 80 cents,
and gulf ports 85 cents. No. 1 Dark Northern S ring at Minneopolis
87 cents; .'. 2 Rod Winter at Chicng-o, 80 cents, St. Louis 80 cents,
and :Io. 1 Soft White at Portl:jnd 77, cents. Loan rates for ares in
the eastern part of the country are determined on the b asis of farm
prices rather than terminal prices. Rates at country points will be
computed on the basis of these rates at principal markets as they
were in 1938.

Loans will be made at 4 percent interest and will mature on
wheat stored on farms on Anril 30, 1940. Loans on commercially stored
wheat will run for 7 months from the date of the notes, but not lpter
than April 70, 1940.

The 1939 loan rate may have somewhat more influence on wheat
prices thon the 1938 loan. The loan rates announced for termir-I
markets are about the same as only 1 or 2 cents below the weekly aver-
r*2. cash prices at these markets for the week-ended May 20. With a
lar,-jr percentage of the wheat farmers cooperating this year than ir
1938 mor, f'-rr.-,rs will be eligible to take advantage of the loan and
prices may be given more support by the program than last year.


,S-31





WS-31


- 13 -


Tible 6.- Aver-..-e cose',- prices f July whieat futures, :pecifi'-- .'rc--t
aud -',: s, 197-, r: 1959
: Winnipeg :Liv-rn 301 : '-uenon : Chi ( .-: : K':nsas 'irn.-* is
Date : _j : 1/ Air_ Ci ,.
____ : _'l7. : -,, :Ir- : .92UO I: 'l :7T -i' "1^^ 1JJj9..j ^i*l :IT- :WI- i ,
: Ct. t. Ot. Ct Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct, Ct. CCt. t.
Month- :


Feb. :119.0
Mar. :110.6
Apr. :111.6
Week enr1ed
Apr. 8:110.3
15:113.7
22:113.5
29: 110.0
May 6:108.7
13:105.6
20:102.3

High 3~ :113.7
Low /: 102.3


62.9 111,5 64.2
1:'1.4 103.4 61.9
61.7 100o3 61.1


60.0 98.5
6o.4 101 .o


102,5
100.3
98.7
97.4
95.7


60.7
61.9
65.4
66.3
65.0


5 ---5
58.7 ---
59-5 g/100.2
58.8 2/ 98.8
63.0 V/ 98.2
62.6 21 93.2
62.0 g/ 88.8


.q.9
.. .^ 9


--- o0.2
--- 81.0
-- 52.3
2/6o0.o 79.9
2/60.0 79,7
?J59*. 78.6
J2/59.7 76.4


66.3 102.5 63.0 g/100.2 ?/60.o
60.0 95.7 58.5 2/ 93.2 2/59.7


82.3
76.4


C6. 5

6:'.1
69.0
69.2
71.0
73.2
73.9
714.1

74.1
6g.1l


-7.1 62.9
).6 61.14
76.9 61.7


75.9
76.9
78.2
76.2
75-3
75.1
72.9

78.2
72.9


63.9
64.6
64.5
66.1
6 .9
69.6
69.S

69.8
63.9


I/ Cor.vrsions at Noon buying rate of exchange. P/ June f-
I/ April 8 to May 20, 1939, and corresponding; dates for 193'.


futures.


Tnble 7.- Weighted aver-ge cash price of wherat, specified markets and dates,
1938 and 1939


:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :Uo. 2 Hard : No. 2 : Intern
Date : nd grades :Hard Winter:Dk.N. Spring Amber Durum RI Winter: White
:six markets:K"nsas CityMir.nes.polis:Minneapolis: St. Louic: Settle 1}
:19
..n. 38 :1939 =1938 1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 :1939 :1938 1939 1973 1979


: 0C. Ct, Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.


Month S
Feb. : 9g.8
Mar. : 93.0
Apr. : 86.2
Week ended
Apr. 8: 85.6
15: s6.8
22: 87.7
29: s4.4
M.y 6: 83.9
13: g4.9
20: 82.9


Hih 2/: 87.7
Low 2-_/ : )2.9


70.6
71.0
72.4

71.3
72.4
72.3
73.2
77.5
73.7



71.3


99.6
91.5
84.6

83.9
85.3
S6.1
82.8

si.9
81.6


g6.1
0. .6


69.2 125.1
68.7 119.2
69.6 110.5

68.7 109.1
69,4 110.0
69,4 115.0
70.S 108.5
74.5 113.1
74.7 106.3
76.0 104.2


76.0 115.0
63.7 104.2


73.0
77.0
77.8

76.6
7S.9
77.3
92.4
g3.4
86.3


86.3
7-6


110.1
105.3
100.0

93.7
57.7
101.4
100.7
93.o0
S9.3


101.4
?g.g


72.3
73.7
74.3

73.6
73.9
74.4
74. s
77.6
77.5
73.3


73.6


C7-
91.6
85.0

85.6
_-4.8
Z'5. 7
25.7
3 .2
79.7

78.5


5 *-7
7'e .7


73.1
73.2
76.4

74.9
75.6
76.0
7F.4




*3.1
7".*9


90.0
g6.2
sl.4

82.2

2. 2

79.3
77-3



77.3


67.5
67.5
6..7

67.9

70.1
71.4
72.7
70.9


I/ W-tCl av-,'ra'-e of daily
2/ April 3 to M.M 20, 1939,


C


;ash quotations, basis Nn. 1 s.':-'l.
and corr,: n'r.irn dates for l'.


i-< 6


.7

91.2
'. -I
0 12
75. 4
g, 7
-* .14

91.2
.4


71.1
70.4


7-1.

73.
7?.?

77.2
78.5

78.5
70.0











L,,ti:at -s of the 1939. rve acr- g-:1, in the 13 countries for which
re ports hrve be-n received, indicate a slight decrease, compared with
tht f lt year (Table 12). Th r-e-e u.e rem- ir.- for harvest in
the United States is placed at 4,079,000 acres, which is about 3 percentt
abov' the cop-ir-ble fiure for ]ast year. T.'- 1Q39 yield per acre of
ry. a ... on M~,-- in:dicated at 11.4 bushels, "-hich :vou2d yield a total
crop of V )4,00D0 bushels. This ostim-te is 15 percent o lo'.: the 1938
production, 'ut is 29 percent .above the av-rr for th- 19'8-37 period.

I"- e-,tiat;? tcreagm in thi 13 3rope'' com Tr ri reporting is
about 1 percent less than that of last year.

In moit of the i;.qportar.t rye 'roducing ;reas of Eur-pe, the
condition of the cron is .voera-e or a little a.bovce aver -,c-. In G-'rr.-r"
the condition: of the rye crop is a little above avera-.ge and more f,.vor-
able tlan th-, w.eat cr:,'p in that country. In Poland, also, the crop
condition is slightly above average. In Estonia the condition is
satisfaictor rrnd in Fr:ire it is reported as very satisfactory. In
Soviet Ru-si', however, the winte- ryse prospects are reported to bo
generally poor.


Table 8.-Exports of :Yhc-.t and who-t flour from the United States,
1937-3^ a 1m93-3

(Includes flour milled in bond from foreigr wheat)

: t: MWhat ircl'ir in-
Period Wheat Who~t flour
:19!7-38 :;iq, P- a ,-_,_. _Y ....-'7 _:1q'8-1Q
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:':e.l. ..s "l-'.. "r:', .. barrels bushels :h-}'-l.

July-ar..,.......: 59,o4 64,o63 3,6gg *,1449 76,420 s4,974
Week ended/ :
April] 8......: 538 1,142 2 Ws 970 1,556
15...... : 1217 1,457 55 39 1,475 1, 640
22 ......: 1,37 913 52 250 1,622 2,093
29.......: 2, 1,356 41 144 2,777 2,033
May 6.......: 2, 4 2,307 3 174 2,551 3,125
13.......: 2,076 2/1,910 43 2/156 2,278 2/2,643


Co:.,iledI front re orts of the Department of Commerce.
/ 'Z tr. for tot-l exports from the United States rh' weeks are not
av. -'-!-l .. se n ata re-roesnt cxnorts thr ugh 16 of tl.: rriii'o1 ports.
g/ F ri i riniry.


- 1U -






- 15 -


Tnble 9.- Movement of wheat, incl.i.lirn flour, from principr-'' e--rti-
countries, 1935-36 to I, -3)


: ________ yTL_.r_. ,.-ve'L. J :ird Zr"es___
: .-l __: J'l' 1 t- l t.-- 1..-w:. : fD, .t
:19 C5- : :1937-3V :lg7^-^ :Ij-r'-, : 7-,
: 1,000 1,,' 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,(' :
:bushels 13h -l bros-iels b1'i.h ,us'-1 3 :1'1 :i.


United States I/
Canada ..........
Ar,.entina .*....
Australia .......
Soviet Union .,.
Hunary .........
Yujgoslavia ......
Rumania *........
Bulgaria ........
British India....
Total .......


I.


0

'4


15,929
2Tf, 447
7' 577
1' .328
9, 704
14, 644
728
6,392
988
2,556


21,58194
213,0:S
162,977
9, 730
4,479
27, 4:8
17,954
36,264
7,273
16,571


107,204
94, 546
69,670
123,343
43,354
9,36g
5,012
32,962
8,484
19,677


15,5-'
189, -:7
98,6
55, 7"

22,64.
11,76C
25,613
5,9C35
gc9.


76, 0
81,215
C '75
9 59
7, 742
4,626
- :1490
5,947
12,122


4, 97:'4
127, 467:
45,311:
58,9(-4:
22, .4:-0:
20,34o0:
4,632:
34,645:
178:
8, 589:


Mar. 31
Ar. <,
Feb. -:
Feb. -
Spt.30
Mar. 31
Feb. .:*:
M-r. 31
Feb. 28
Dec. 31


: 490,293 6o6,288 513,620
Shipments ap given by tr-dle sources
: Total : Week ended. 193-39 : July 1 May 13
:1936-37 :1937-3g8 Apr.29 :May 6 :May 13 1937-38 ; 1938-39


: 1,000
:bus.'--' I s


North America 2/ : 231,832
Canada /........ 213,028
United States 5/.1 10,395
Argentina .......: 164,678
Australia .......: 105,836
Soviet Union ....: 8S
Danube and
Bulgaria 6/ ....: 65,544
British India ...:1/16,571
Total g/....: 584,549
Total Euro- :
pean ship- :
ments 2/...: 484,670
Total ex-Euro-
pear. ship- :


1,000
bushels

184,720
94,546
83,651
66,928
127,520
42,248

37,320
1/19,677


1,000
bushels


3,744
1,290
2,033
4,288
2,076
88

872
0


1,000
bushel s


4,224
2,060
3,125
3,790
1,807
0

6so
o0


1,000
bushels


5,946

2,643.
3,266
1,655
0

848
0


473,413


1,000
bushel s


158,824
81,480
74.136
57,648
108,532
40,032

35,232
12, 5-
412,854


1,000
bu sh s

206,466
/129, 530
81,012
30,304
85,774
39,824


43,304
6,280
461,95


397,656 7,024 9./332,944 2/354,1 4


ments 2/...: 127,192 99,400 4,576 2/ *T,296 2/115,192
1/ Includes floir milled in bond from foreign wheat. 2/ Broonhall's Corn Traide
News. 3/ Official e.-ports as reported to ate, surplemented by reported weekly
clearances of wheat, *.-nd estimates of flour shipmen-ts. _/ To M" 6 only.
5/ Official reports received from 16 principal ports only. 6/ Black Sea
shipments only, 1/ Official. ]/ Total of trade fi.-ores includes Nlorth
America as reported by Broornhnll's but does not include items 2 and 3.
2/ To April 29.


SS-31


Country







?- 31


- 16 -


Table 10.-Shipments of -w.heat, including flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1937-38 and 1959-39


Period Argentina Australia Danube N-orth America
,1937-38:19? 9." (7-38:1958-39:1937-38:1938-39:1937-58:1938-39
: 1,000 1, o 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bus ..I bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

July-Mar. ....: 49,016 58,088 79,488 73,252 32,784 36,952 140,960 182,248
:--eek ended -
April 8 ...: 1,03 3 ,08 4,520 2,840 688 272 1,456 5,752
15 ...: 1,, 3,55 6,016 2,240 624 1.576 2,488 3,072
22 ...: 1,82 4,103 3,988 1,904 B28 1 i24 2,336 3,480
29 ...: 1,384 4,288 5,480 2,076 208 872 4,104 3,744
May 6 ...: 1,484 3,790 3,784 1,807 272 680 3,816 4,224
13 ...: 1,020 3,266 5,256 1,655 128 848 3,664 5,946
20 ...: 1,328 3,866 2,868 2,228 360 1,808 3,224 6,624
Compiled fror Broonhall's Corn Trade News.

Table 11.-Net imports of wheat, including flour; into European
countries, year beginning July 1, 1i27 and 1938

C ut : 1938-39 : Reported net imports
Country 1957-38 :forecast 1/: July 1 to 1937-38 : 1938-39
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. : : Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
Belgium ..........: 36 39 : Feb. 28 27 23
Czechoslovakia ...: 2/ 1 : Aug. 31 2 1 1
Denmark ..........: 6 7 : Mar. 31 : 5 4
Finland ..........: 3 3 :Mar. 31 : 2 2
France ...........: 15 2 : Mar. 31 : 11 2
Germany ..........: ) : Mar. 31 : 537 33
Austria ..........: ) 54 45 Feb. 28 : 4 5
Greece ...........: 18 13 : Feb. 28 10 8
Ireland ..........: 14 14 : Mar. 31 : 11 12
Italy ............: 5 18 : Mar. 31 : 5 8
Latvia ...........: 1 0 Feb. 28 : 3/ /
":r;therlands ......: 24 26 : Mar. 31 : 18 22
Norway ...........: 7 8 : Mar. 31 : 5 5
Poland ...........: 0 2/ 3 : Mar. 31 :4/ 2 2
Portugal .........: 1 3 : Feb. 28 :/ 4
Sweden ........... : 2/ 1 0 M: r. 31 : 1 1
Switzerland ......: 14 17 : Mar. 31 11 13
United Kingdom ...: 193 217 : Mar. 31 : 142 166
Total imports of:
above .........: 391 413 : : 288 309
Spain ............: 3 15
Total imports ..: 394 428
Total exports ..: 2 3 : : 2 2
Ttal net imports 392 425 : : 286 307


1 recasts by DEu-ro,'an offices of
/ .et exports.
4/ ; t exports of less than 500,000


U. S. Department of Agriculture.
3/ Less than 500,000 bushels.
bushels.


Compiled fro'., official sources except as otherwise stated.







- 17 -


Table 1:.-Winter .' acre.


in ."-'cified countries, 1.7-1979


(A'rcr-c sown, except as otherwise noted)


Country


: 1957


: 1E~Z9


1,000 acres 1,000 acres


"-nited States i1 ..................:
Canada l/ ......................... :
Total (2) ..................
PCliumn ........................... :
l.; ria .... e............... ..
Czechoslovakia 2/ .................:
Fr.---i-n...-e 2/ .........................
Germany 4/........................
.sree'r. .. .
Latvia ............................ :
Lithuania ...... ................... :
Poland ............................ :
Ruman ia ....... ....... ...........,:
Yugoslavia .............. ......,,.:
Total (11) ............... :
Total (13) .................:


a.


3,946

4,740
?76
426
1,587
1,620
10,403
160
706
1,130
14,247
1,052
548
32,375
57,115


3,979
741
4,720
380
436
1,660
1,621
10,410
170
703
1,296
14,514
1,177
549
32,916
57,636


4,C79
755
4,
575
423
1,642
1,604
10,186
155
724
1,278
14,689
939
533
32,548
57.382


1/ Acreage harvested or for harvest.
2/ New boundaries. Figure for 1937 is an estimate based on the percent-
age relationship between the old boundary acreage in 1937 and 1938.
Plantings to January 1.
4/ Excludes Austria.

Table 13rAcreage, yield, and production of rye in the United States

Acreage : Yield per acre c:c aJction
left for
left for : : : : : :
State : harvest :Average: : Indi- : Averase : :Indicated
1938 1938
:for grain,:1928-37: : cated : 1928-37 : : 1939
1939 : : 1939 : : :
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
acres bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels burhbls

Wis. ..: 284 10.8 13.0 12.0 2,515 4,290 3,408
Minn. .: 514 14.8 18.0 16.0 6,138 9,846 8,224
II. Dak.: 938 9.0 13.5 10.0 8,076 12,974 9,P"0
S. Dak.: 612 10.2 16.0 10.0 35,714 10,176 6,120
Nebr. .: 445 9.2 11.5 10.0 2,770 4,796 4,450
Other
States: 1,286 --- --- -- 13,117 12,957 15,122

U. S. 4,079 11.1 13.8 11.4 36,330 55,039 46,704


2


.... 7




UNIVER ITY OF FLORIDA
I~l t3II IIII1I I l I 1 1262 0886111 1 IIIII11118565ll II
3 1262 08861 8565




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