Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00043

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UNITED STATES PEFARTME.T OF !.GR': E
Bureau of Agricultural onor.ics
,'a s. }.l' t ton

:7YS-.o 'ril 25 1 :.9

THE WHEAT SITUATION
Including, Rye


Sur.mra ry

An indicated 64 million bushel increase in the 1939 domestic winter .,heat

orop, on April 1, over that indicated last winter and an increase in Argentine ex-

ports of wheat were iirr.rtant developments in the world wheat situation durir.n the

past month. Further political tension in Europe also entered into the situation.

Daily prices at both domestic and foreign markets have been irregular during the

past month, but have advanced slightly from the low level reached late in March.

Developments in the European political situation and changes in prospects for the

1939 Northern Hemisphere crop will be the important factors influencirn world

wheat prices during the next few months.

Estimates of the acreage sown to winter wheat for harvest in 1939, in 21

countries, which in 1938 represented 67 percent of all wheat acreage harvested

that year in the Northern Hemisphere (excluding Soviet Russia and China), indi-

cate a decrease of about 6 percent compared with that of last yc:r. Slight in-

creases in so-A-n acreage in European countries and in Northern Africa are heavily

outweighed by the acr':age reduction in the United States.

rrowving conditions in the United States and C-.rnda are less favorable than

at the sairm. tirm last ye:Lr. In western and central Europe there has been con-

siderable damage to the crop from winter-kill, and spring seedinr. has been dela.-ed

by wet weather. In the Danubian countries prospects are good f, r b.-th the winter

and spring crops, but in Soviet Russia conditions are generally less favorable.

Soil conditions are favorable for wheat seedir., in Arg.- :'tina and in the frc-rter

part :of Australia,








* .. i -2 -

There has been a marked im'rom':.nt since last December in the condition

of the United 1-r.tes winter wheat crop in the Southern Great Plains area, and a

general improvement in practically all other areas of the country exce.-t in

>"lifornia, "'hre the weather has been dry. The April 1 indicated crop of E49

million bushels, tc.--ther with average yields on the prospective planted acrr' :,e

of spring whEat, would produce a total wheat crop of about 750 million bushels,

or 180 millicr bushels smC.l'r than last year. A crop this size would be 70 mil-

lion bushels above domestic disappearance during the period 1928-37. If the

carry-over on July 1, 1939 is about 275 million bushels and production is as ir.di-

cat-. above, the total domestic supply for 1939-40 would be 1,025 million bushels,

about 60 million bushels smaller than the 1938-39 supply.

Since last July there has been a marked decline in foreign prices, while

domestic prices have been practically unchanged. In consequence, the average

price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kansas City during March was about 12 cents

above the price of Liverpool Parcels as compared with 28 cents below last July.

Relatively high domestic prices are largely the result of the domestic loan and

ex;:urt prcA-r-m:, and if these programs are continued into 1939-40 domestic prices

may continue high relative to world prices.


THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION IIT 1938-39

BACKGROUND.- Total world supplies of wheat increased sharp-
ly frco, 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of increased acre-
age. From 1933 to 1936 world su<-plies declined, following
successive years of small production and increased world de-
mand. World supplies increased slightly in 1937 and sharply
in 1938, when supplies totaled 5,191 million bushels, -- the
largest on record. Total world shipments of wheat averaged
751 million bushels for the period 19-'3-27, reached a peak
of 913 million bushels in the y"-r b-:.:innir.- July 1928, and
then declined sharply, lart-, ly us a result of the measures
taken by importing countries to reduce the use of fCreign
wheat.





-3-


During the period 1924-33, world wheat -.rices de-
clined, largely as a result of the 1-on-c-ral decline in
industrial activity and commodity prices. Wnrld
wheat prices moved steadily up-ward from the spring of
1933 to the s-'mmer of 1937, reflecting a world wide
recovery in commodity price levels and reduced produc-
tion. The world price for the 1937 crop rem-inrod
practically unch-nged from thlt of a :',r earlier. In
193g world prices declined h-irply, due larr.ly to in-
crensed world production.


World crop prospects legL. favorable than in 1938

In the Prairie Provinces of Canada, soil moisture is fairly adeq-ite
although there is a serious deficiency in moisture reserves in Manitoba
and eastern Saskatchewan. This will make adequate rainfall during the
growing season in these areas of particular importance. Cold weather has
delayed field work, except in parts of Southern Alberta, where some seeding
h-s been done.

Reports on the condition of the crop in Europe indicate considerable
damage from winter-kill. In Fr-ance, Netherlands, and Belgium the outlook
appears to be below average. Spring seeding to replace damaged winter
wheat has been retarded by cold weather, and the condition is still below
average. Some damage from frost and storms has been reported in Italy.
Considerable winter kill is reported in Germany and spring seeding there
is backward. In many other parts of Europe wet weather is delaying spring
seeding and the outlook is unpromising. In the Danubian countries, how-
ever, seeding of spring grain is active and the condition of the winter
sown wheat is good.


In Soviet Russia cold weather hns delayed spring seeding. Recent
warmer weather has been more favorable, but seeking is still behind schedule.
The condition of the winter crop is irregular but is mostly considered
below average.


In Northern Africa the outlook for the crop is good, particularly
in Tunisia and Morocco.

In India the harvest is now in progress. The crop is officially-
estimated at 344 million bushels, which is 10 percent below the April esti-
mate of the 1938 crop.

Seeding is now beginning in both Argentina arnd Australia. Soil condi-
tions are favorable in Argentina. A,.undant rains in March favored the
preparation of fields for snwinr7. The condition of wheat already sprouted is
very good. Over much of Australia conditions arc favorable for field work.
In the southern and easternn sections of the. country, however, the soil is
too dry and in pnrts of ler'. South Wiles excessive rain is retarding field work.





- 44-


Table 1.- Winter wheat area sown in snecified countries for
harvest in 1937, 1938 and 1939


Item : 1937 : 1938 1939
: 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres
Wheat :
-. cited States ..................: 57,656 56,355 46,173
Canada ............... ....... : 781 815 799
Total (2) .................: 58,437 57,170 46,972
Belgium .........................: 422 428 446
Bulgaria .......................: 2,845 2,874 3,025
Czechoslovakia 2/ .............; 1,337 1,426 1,410
En-lanr and Wales ..............: 1,732 1,807 1,664
France '/........... ........ 12,772 12,353 12,249
C m y ... ................. 4,579 4,564 4,714
Hungary 2/.....................: 4,054 5 4,398 5/ 4,374
Italy ....................,.....: 12,692 12,149 12,635
Latvia .........................: 170 167 180
Lithuania ......................: 379 357 361
Poland ..... ...... ....3........ 3,737 3,801 3,835
Portugal .......................: 1,219 1,236 1/ 1,421
Rum.- ia ........................: 7,966 8,799 8,649
Yugoslavia .....................: 5,335 5,224 5/ 5,436
Total (14) ................: 59,239 59,583 60,399
India /........................: 33,415 33,722 32,999
Egypt ..........................: 1,421 1,470 1,503
Algeria .......................: 4,311 4,161 / 4,460
Morocco ......................: 3,027 2,906 1/ 2,990
Tunisia .............. ........: 2,429 1,644 2,125
Total (21) ...............: 162,279 160,656 151,448
1j Estimate of the Paris office of the Department of Agriculture.
2/ New boundariess. Figure for 1937 is an estimate based on the percentage
relationship between the old boundary acreage in 1937 and 1938.
3/ Plantings to January 1.
Excluding Austria.
_/Estimate of the Belgrade office of the Department of Agriculture.
April estimates.

Incr,-sed movement of foreign wheat
Argentine wheat has moved into export channels somewhat faster in
recent weeks than it did earlier in the season. Shipments frnm Argentina
during the 3 weeks ended April 15 cnvernged 3.8 million bushels, which was
80 percent larger than the weekly average shipments during January 1-March 25,
and more than 150 percent above weekly exports during the same period of
1938, when the exportable surplus was small. These figures would indicate
that the Argentine exportable surplus, which is estimated to have been 229
million bushels on January 1 was reduced to around 192 million bushels by







WS-30


April 15. It is estimat.-d tht on Anril 1 about one--.:il *f the Australian
-urplus for the marketin.- year b~yirniiinc .cL:ber 1, 1~^', HI been expcrtc.
The bulk of the Australian exports hac gone to Cr'ental countries. 5 '-. -nts
of wheat from North America continued much larger iurin ; the first half of
April than at the sFufe time in 1953, but w: -kly sLi -...t h rcairi come-
what cclow the lar-e weekly shipments during the first 3 ':> of M-r'?..

The total quantity of U.i.ted States .'.-,a't available for e-T.rt in
the 1939-39 marketing year was estimated at 250 million bushels. Exports of
wheat, including flour, luring the period July 1 to Anr1rl 15, which included
incomplete statistics for March 1 to April 15, were 81 million bushels, com-
pared with 71 million bushels in the s-me period last yerr. :t'?l exports
of domestic .-he.,t for the 1937-39 marketing ;ynr amourted to l'C0 million
Luho'ls. Sales for export this ye7.r are reported already to have slightly
exceeded 1CO million bushels, which would indicate that 1977-39 -eTorts will
exceed those of 1937-38.

The total surplus of wh:-at for expert or carry-over in three ex-
porting countries is shown in Table 2. Th.- surplus of wheat in these coun-
tries plus stocks afloat, amrount.ed to 478 million bushels, and was sub-
stantially larger than in either of the past 2 yenrs. Supplies for export
are large in Argentina and North America.


Table 2.- Wheat surplus
exporting countries,
stocks afloat,


for export or carry-over in three
United Kingdom port stocks m:.d
April 1, 1936-39 1/


Position : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 : 1939

Million Million Million Million
: bushels bushels buchel g ., s _hels
Can -da
In Canada .................: 210 73 46 155
In United States ..........: 15 12 1 2

Argentina ...................: 46 53 55 191
Australia ...................: 61 64 92 70
Total .................. 332 202 194 45
United Kingdor. port stocks ..: 13 11 22

Stocks afloat to:
United Kinedom ...........: 16 15 11 13
Continent 12 23 20 7
Continent .................: 12 23 20 7
Orders ....................i 10 19 11 11
Total ..................: 46 70 53 53
Gr.,nd total ............: 378 272 2 478
1j Carry-over at the b,'ginnirin of the year ,(Cannda, July 31; Ar-entina,
January 1; Austrplia, Dec. 1 cf the previous year) plus production, minus
domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly e-.-'ts to Inte.







-6-


Irs."rc-.'ernt in foreign prices

Wheat prices in important world markets declined from early January
to late Marchwhen the average price in England reached the lowest since
April 1933. The large Argentine harvest was apparently the chief price
depresrirn, influence during this period. There has been little net change
in Msr futur.,s quotations on Liverrool Parcels during the past 2 weeks, while
prices at Winnipeg and 3uenos Aires have advanced slightly. The price of
Rumanian wheat at Liverpool advanced 4 cents per bushel from late March to
early April. For the week ended April 7, Rum3nian wheat was selling about
4 cents per bushel below Argentine wheat and 19 cents per bushel below
Canadian wheat at Liv9r l.c *

Table 3.- Pr~ces of imported wheat at Liverpool

: Hard wheat Soft wheats
Date : U. S. C C.nada : s
(Fridy) (1ulf) : No. 3 :P c U. S' : ArP ntine:Australian:Rumani an
:ITo.l Dk.Hd.Mitoba Whacifte : Ro(fc : I
: Winter : I/ : Whte
Cc: Conts Cents Cents Cents Cents
1938
Nov. 4 : 2/ 55.0 6.4 67.7 3/ 5.8 68.4 ---
10 : 2/ 55.6 69.7 63.8 V 61.6 66.7 --
18 --- 72.0 61.0 -- 66.2 --
25 : 2 59.5 74.4 --- 65.3 66.7 ---
"cc. 2 : 2_ 59.2 76.0 62.8 65.8 --- -
9 : 65.6 76.6 64.4 --- 693 --
16 : 4/ 63.5 75.5 -- 62.6 64.2
23 : 64.9 73.6 --- 62.3
30 : 6s.o 76.3 -- 63.2 65.4---
Jan. 6 : 66,5 76.0 --- 61.8 66.9
13 : 66.g 75.9 --- 62.4 67.1
20 : 66.6 75-3 -- 62.9 73-9 --
27 : 67.9 76.3 -- 69.4 68.7
Feb. 3 : 68.7 76.0 --- 63.6 69.5 ---
10 : 68.1 74.3 -- 61.9 67.4 ---
17 : 67.7 76.2 62.2 66.6
24 --- 75.5 -- 60.1 64.9
Mar. 3 : 60.1 64.5 53.8
10 --- 74.8 -- 58.6 61.6 52.0
17 : -- 731 --- 57-8 59.6 --
24 : -- 7.6 --- 58.5 62.2 50.8
31 -- 75.3 -- 58.9 61.4 54.8
Apr. 7 : 73,9 -- 58.9 62.9 54.9
14 '- 58.9 65.1 55.6
21 : 72.4 --- 60.3 66.5 --
1 Emirre wheat qualifying for Imperipl Preference was exempted from duty
K(npprxim:,tir.r 6 cents per b-is'-l) prior to January 1, 1939,under Ottawa
A,-r-ements of IT'vymber 1932.
2/ ". 2 Yellow Hr.-i Winter. 3J Bru.-so. 4/ No. 2 D--rk H-rli Winter.





WS-30


During the past 2 or 3 weeks the unsettled Europe.an political
situation apparently has been partly responsible for the advance in
wheat prices and for irregularity in the world wheat market. The
course of world wheat prices during the next few months will be in-
fluenced principally by political developm-ents in Europe and by changes
in prospect for the 1939 wheat crops. Since the first of the year
domestic wheat prices have declined less than foreign prices, 3nd the
price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at Kansas City was 12 cents above the
price of Liverpool Parcels for March as compared with 9 cents above d1Ir-
ing January and 28 cents below last July. The comparatively high prices
of wheat in domestic markets are largely the result of the domestic ex-
port subsidy program and the wheat loan program.

THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.-The carry-over of wheat in the United States,
which for the 5 years 1924-28 averaged about 115 million
bushels, increased to a record of 375 million in 1933.
Four small crops sinee that time, however, reduced stocks
to about 100 million bushels by July 1, 1937. The domestic
disappearance during the 10 years 1928-37 averaged about
680 million bushels.

Wheat exports from the United States declined
steadily after the World War and because of droughts, im-
ports were necessary in 1934 to 1936. The 1937 domestic
crop was greatly in excess of domestic needs, the Oanadian
and Argentine crops were smalland about 100 million bushels
of United States wheat were exported. In 1938 the domestic
crop was again large, but foreign demand for domestic wheat
is less favorable because of large crops in other exporting
countries.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that
of 1937 were unusually high in relation to world prices.
During the year beginning July 1936, both world and domestic
prices advanced sharply as a result of increased demand and
small supplies. Prices received by producers for the 1936-37
season averaged 103 cents per bushel and for the 1937-38 season,
96 cents. Prices so far during the current season have been
substantially below those of a year earlier.

Prospective domestic wheat supplies

Winter wheat production.-A winter wheat crop of 549,219,000 bushels
was indicated by April 1 conditions. A crop of this size would be about 137
million bushels below the 1938 crop and about 11 million bushels below the
average production for the years 1928-37. It was estimated that about 16
percent of the acreage seeded last fall would not be harvested, leaving
38,900,000 acres for harvest in 1939. Last year 49,711,000 acres were har-
vested, and during the 10 previous years, an average of 38,160,0C0 acres.
April 1 conditions indicated a yield of 11.9 bushels per seeded acre. This
would. be about average but slightly below the yield for last year.


- 7 -





WS-3o


The winter wheat crop as indicated on April 1 was 64 million bushels
larger than was indicated by conditions last December. This improvement
is the result of a marked improvement in the Southern Great Plains area anu
general improvement in practically all sections of the country, with the
exception of California. In much of the area falling between South Dakota
and central Texas there is still a deficiency of sub-soil moisture, but
recent rains have supplied adequate surface moisture for current needs.

Indicated wheat yields per seeded acre for 1938 were above the
average of the past 10 years in Minnesota, Iowa, Oklahoma, and most of the
important producing States east of the Mississippi River. Indicated yields
in Texas, Kansasand Nebraska are again below average, but are well above
the yields during most of the past 6 years. Dry weather in California has
reduced the prospective yield below that of a year ago and below average.
Prospective yields in Washington and Oregon are substantially above average.

Growing conditions in most of the winter wheat belt have been favorable
since the first of April, with heavy rains reported in areas of the western
wheat belt, where moisture is still below normal. In much of the area east
of the Mississippi River, cold, wet weather has retarded the growth of the
crop. Precipitation in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio from
April 1 to 16 has been much above normal. Precipitation during this period
in Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Montana was much below normal. Temperatures
have averaged below normal for this period throughout the entire winter
wheat belt.

Spring wheat production.-With average yields on the spring wheat
acreage indicated in the March 1 prospective plantings report, a spring
wheat crop of about 200 million bushels would be produced. In this publi-
cation it was reported that growers intend to plant about 19.5 million acres
of spring wheat this year and the assumed yield per acre is 10.1 bushels,
the average for the period 1919-38. At this time yield per acre and acreage
to be harvested cannot be predicted with any high degree of accuracy. The
abandonment of spring wheat has varied widely during the past 15 years.
During the period 1924-33, the average abandonment was 6.9 percentzwhile
during the period 1927-36 it was 1.S8 percent. In the drought years 1934
and 1936, approximately one-half of the seeded acreage was abandoned. Yields
of spring wheat have varied widely in recent years, but during the period
1929-37 they have averaged 10.2 bushels per acre.

Since April 1 weather conditions have been generally too cold to
allow seeding of the spring wheat crop in Minnesota, North Dakota, and
Montana. Precipitation during March was only about 50 percent of normal
in Minnesota and North Dakotapand about 75 percent of normal in Montana.
Rainfall continued less than two-thirds of normal in this area during the
first half of April.

Protective 1939-40 wheat supply

A 1939 winter wheat crop of 549 million bushels, as indicated on
April 1, together with average yields on the prospective acreage of spring
wheat, would produce a total 1939 wheat crop of about 750 million bushels.
A crop of this size would be 70 million bushels above domestic disappearance


- 8 -







WS-30


in the period 1928-37, and about 50 million bushels above the 19'7-..'.
domestic disappearance. Assuming a carry-over of about L.7, million
bushels, the total 1939-40 supply would be 1,025 -illion bushels, Yzout
60 million bushels smaller than the 1935-39 supply ED information is
available at this time that would make possible a forecast of the total
exports of wheat in 1939-40, but miless exports are much smaller than
for the present marketing. y.ar, the total carry-over of wheat on J 1:y 1,
1940, may be reduced somewhat from the prospective carry-over on July 1
this year.

Stocks of all classes of wheat on farms April 1 were estimated t,
be 189,C90,000 bushels, compared with 124,152,000 bushels last y ^r and
a 10-ycar average of 121,053,000 bushels. The disappearance of wheat from
farms during the period January through Varch was 92,1,7,000 tushhcls, com-
pared with 83,35c,000 bushels for this same period last year -'dri 94,546,00
bushels for the 10-year (1928-37) average. Market stocks of wheat on hand
April 1 totaled 82,689,000 bushels compared with 54,426,000 bushels T :t
year. Statistics on stocks of wheat in interior mills and elevators, ware-
houses, and merchant mills are not yet available.

Domestic wheat prices advanced slightly

Cash prices of wheat at domestic markets, after receding from January
to the middle of March, increased slightly during the past month. Daily
changes in cash and future prices at domestic markets have been irregular
during the past 2 or 3 weeks, reflecting the unsettled European political
situation. Prices of No. 2 R-d Winter wheat at St. Louis and No. 1 Dark
Northern Spring wheat at Minneapolis for the week ended April 15 were both
about 3 cents per bushel higher than the average for the week ended March
18. The average price of lo. 2 Red Winter wheat at St. Louis for the week
ended April 15 was 76 cents per bushel, the highest for the season, and
about 6 cents per bushel above the price of ''o. 2 Hard Winter wheat at
Kansas City.

Changes in prospects for the winter and spring v.heat crops, as well
as changes in prospect for foreign wheat supplies, will be important in-
fluences in domestic wheat prices during the next few weeks. Prices will
not be so sensitive to changes in prospective supplies, however, as they
would with more nearly normal world stocks.

The price of wheat at Liverpool has declined about 40 cents per bushel
since last July. Domestic prices during this period have remained practically
unchanged, and the price of Liverpool Parcels has declined from 28 cents per
bushel above the price of No. 2 Hard Red Winter wheat at Kansas City last
July, to 12 cents per bushel below for March. If the export subsidy and
wheat loan programs are continued into 1939-40, domestic wheat prices may
continue high relative to foreign prices.

The most important single factor in the immediate outlook is the
foreign political situation. This may cause both domestic and foreign wheat
markets to be unsettled during the next few months. Any developments in
Europe causing Liverpool prices to change sharply might have less immediate
effect on domestic prices, since domestic prices are not now on an export
parity basis.






wS- o


- 10 -


Table 4.-Avera-ge closing prices of May wheat futures, specified markets
and dates, 1938 and 1939
: Winripg : Liverpool : *.ue:os : : Kansas :
ate 1 1/ I : Aires Chicago: : City : apos
2 R T9 : a.,.A .. .. .. ... .___ .. .. .
1ir. t.h- C: C. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. t. Ctd t. Ct.
:1.. :12.73 6122 113.9 63.3 95.5 5 97.2 6.oo10.54 72.5
-e. :127.7 62.3 112.3 62.4 -. 94.1 68.4 92.9 64.6 104.8 71.0
4r. :120.o 60.7 104.7 60.0 -- 88.1 68.1 85.7 64.1 97.3 70.1
,a d : 2/"_ _
1ar. 4:125.5 62.0 110.7 61 .6106.5 59.5 92.3 68.7 89.6 64.7 102.0 71,0
11:120.6 61.2 ics.4 60.-103,7- 59.5 ~8.8 68.2 86.0 64.2 97.7 70.3
18:118.5 59.9 104.0 59.6 101,SJ59.5 87.1 67.7 84.9 63.8 96.4 69.4
25116.0 60.5 99.6 59,6 98.9 59.9 86.2 67.8 -'.3 63.9 95,4 70.0
Apr. 1:120.7 60.2 100.1 59.6 100.5 59.6 86.0 67.9 83,5 64,2 95.1 70.0
8:122.8 60.o 98.6 58.5 98.8 59.7 83.0 68.1 80.2 63.9 92.8 70.0
15:124.6 60.4 101.3 58.7 100.1 59.8 83.9 69.0 81.3 64,6 93.5 71.2
22:124.2 60.7 103.4 59,5 99.4 59.7 84.0 69,2 82.6 64.5 93.2 70.9
High 4/ :128.4 62.8 114.8 64. 1112,o5./9.9 97.4 70.2 96.3 66.9 107.3 73.3
Low 471:116.0 59.9 98.6 58.5 8.8258.7 83.0 67.7 80.2 63.8 92.8 69.4
1/ Conversions at noon. buying rate of exchange. 2/ March futures. 31 April
futures. 4/ January 7 to April 15, 1939 and corresponding dates for 1938.
J/ March, April,and May futures.

Table 5.-Weighted average, cash price of wheat, specified markets and
dates, 1938 and 1939
:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :No. 2 Hird : No. 2 : Western
:and grades :Hard Winter:Dk.N.Spring:Amber Durum:Rod Winter : White
Date :six markets:Kansas City:Minncapolis:;Mirnnr:apolis: St. Louis :Seattle 1/
: 1938: 1939: 1938: 1939: 1938: 1939: 1938: 1939: 1938: 1939: 1938: 1939
Month- Ct. t. Ct- Ct. Ct. Ct. Cto Ct. Ct t,
Jan. 10274 72. 102.7 70.9 127.0 79.7 108.7 72.7 100.2 737 88.9 67.
Feb. 3 98.8 70.6 99.6 69.2 125.1 78.0 110.1 72.3 93.3 73.1 90.0 67.5
Mar. : 93.0 -71.0 91.5 68.7 119.2 77.0 105.3 73.7 91.6 73.2 86.2 67.5
Week
ended
Mar. 4: 97.5 71.1 96.4 68.6 129.5 79.3 111.6 74,1 96.5 73.4 88.5 67.9
11: 94.1 71.5 91.6 69.0 113.3 77.3 104.2 73.6 91.2 73.4 86.7 67.5
18: 90.6 70.5 90.5 68.8 --- 76,o 100.9 71.5 90.1 72.9 85.7 66.4
25: 91.7 70.5 89,5 68.2 --- 76.6 103.8 74.9 89.0 73.0 85.1 67.8
Apr. 1: 89.9 71.3 88.3 69.0 109.5 75.9 102.0 74.2 88.3 74.2 85.4 68.2
8: 85.6 71.3 83.9 68.7 109.1 76.6 98.7 73.6 85.6 74.9 82.2 67.9
15: 86.8 72.4 85.3 69.4 110.0 78.9 97.7 73.9 84.8 75.6 80.2 69.2
22: 87.7 72.8 86.1 69.4 115.0 77.3 101.4 74.4 85.7 76.O 82.0 --
Himh 2 :1C5.2 73.3 104.8 71.7 131.1 80.4 112.3 74.9 101.7 76.0 90.5 69.2
Low 27 : 85.6 69.6 85.3 68.2 109.1 75.9 97.7 70.8 84.8 71.9 80.2 66.5
i/ W-.kly average of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
2/ Jn.-uary 7 to April 15, 1939, and corresponding datcs for 1938.







- 11 -


;F 1'TE 1 -- 'ClCI-_ "

TiLe mild winter in the W'.st north Central re,'ion resulted in an im-
provement of the rye crop from Licr-mber 1 to April 1. The cc' ition of the
crop on April 1 was 79 perr.ent of normal, com-parcd with 81 percent of no.-.:
on April 1 of last year, and 76 percent for the 19.2--37 averJe. I.n nost of
the ry.,e-producing area there has been sufficient rain for -rrent needs, but
sub-soil moisture is still deficient. Tne temperature has been generally
below normal this spring, and the growth of the crop has been somewhat de-
l-ay-d 3s comp-ired with that of last y.'e r.

Winter rye acreage in the 11 countries reporting to date is slightly
larger than that of 19.' in these countries. In Germany: which is, exception.
Soviet Russia, the largest rye-producing country, prospects for the rye crop
arc (ood. Definite reports concerning other European countries have not
been re~cLived,but weather conditions would indicate that harvests smaller
than the record crop of last year are probable.


Table 6.-Winter rye area sown in specified countries for
harvest in 1937, 1938, and 1979

Country : 1937 : 1938 : 1939
:1.000 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres

United States ..........................: 7,371 6,671 7,171
Canada ....... .................... .....: 799 582 596
Total (2) ......................: 8,170 7,253 7,767
Belgium ........ ..................... ..: 376 380 375
Bulgaria ... .......................... : 426 436 423
Czechoslovakia / ................... : 1,,87 1,660 1,642
TFrance 2/ ............................: 1,620 1,621 1,604
Germany 3/ ...........................: 10,403 10,387 10,186
Latvia ................................ : 706 703 724
Lithuania ........... ................: 1,250 1,296 1,278
Poland ...............................: 14,247 14,571 14,689
ERu-ania ........... ........... .... ...: 1,052 1,102 939
Total (9) ......................: 31,667 32,156 31,Q60
Total (11) .......................: 39,37 39,409 39,627
1/ lew boundaries. Figure for 1937 is an estimate based on the percentage
relationship bct::,een the old boundary ecreae in 1937 and 1939.
2/ Plantinrs to January 1.
5/ Excluding Austria.


WS-30





- 12 -


Table 7.- Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
countries, 1935-36 to 1938-39

Exports as given by official sources
Country : Total : July 1 to date shown f Date
:1935-35 1935-37 :1937-38 :1936-37 :1937-38 :1938-. 9
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 :
: bushels bushels Washels bushels bushels bushels :
2 :


United States 1/ 2
canviad *.........***
Arg:-,ntina .......:
Australia .......:
Soviet Union ....:
:ungary ........ :
Yugoslavia ......:
Rumania ..........
zulgari a ........
British India ...:


15,929
237,447
76,577
105,328
29,704
14,644
728
6,392
988
2,556


21,584
213,028
162,977
98.730
4,1479
27,42s
17,954
36,264
1,273
16,571


107,20o4
94,546
69,670
123,343
43.354
9, 368
5,012
32'962

19,677


14,019
184, 593
98,686
45,135
890
19,026
10,879
23,201
4,922
7,o01


65,854
78,766
42,964
47,638
9,969
6,104
4,585
24 521
5,628
10,506


73, 881: Feb.
123,396:Mar.
45,311:Feb.
48,,830:Jan.
22,480:Sept.
15,498:Jan.
4,298: Jan.
29,109:Jan.
173fJan.
8, 221;:.ov.


Total ........: 490,293 6o6,2S8 513,620
Shipments as given by trade sources
Total : Week ended 1938-39 : July 1 Apr. 15
:1936-37 :1937-38 :Apr. 1 :Apr. 8 :Apr. 15: 1937-38 : 1938-39


: 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels


North America 2~ : 231,832 184,720
Canada 3/........: 213,028 94,546
United States 4/ : 10,395 83,651
Argentina .......: 164,678 66,928
Australia .......: 105,836 127,520
Soviet Union ....X 88 42,248
Danube and
nulcaria 5/.....: 65,544 37,320
British India ...:6/16,571 6/19,677


3,784
1,200
1, 739
4,796
2,5889
128

808
0


3,745
1,700
1.,556
3,200
2,827
0

440
0


2,068
1,400
1, 664
3.552
2,231
168


144,904
79,990
71,170
51,936
'90, 024
"38,312


1,408 34,096
o 11,970


Total J/


**..: 584,549 478,413


371, 242


Total Europcen :
shipments 2/..: h44,670 397,656


Total ex-Euro- :
pean ship- :
ments 2/......: 127,192


416,027


V/299,536 g/325,208


99, 400 3,744


V/ 69,528 V/ 99,512


1j Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
2/ Broomhall's Corn Trade News.
Official exports as reported to date, supplemented by reported weekly
clearances of wheat, -nd estimates of flour shipments.
/ Official reports received from 16 principal ports only.
B/ lack Sea 'shipments only. 6 Official.
J Total of tr:de figures includes North America as reported by Proomhall's but
does not include items 2 vind 3. V/ To April 1.


WS-30


188,061
125,500
64,908
64, 840
78,310
39,736

38,800
6,280







W.-0 0


- 13 -


Table ,.-Exports of wleat .' :h eat "'our 'cr.-. the Unit -' ".t. t,
19'".--' aiid :1'.. -"9

(Includes flour milled in bo-.- "':"- foreign ..- ':t)


S.. .--at f.'. at flour r
PT riod _______ flour

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,COO 1 ,00 1, j
: bushels bushels :arrels barrels bushels bushels

July-Feb. ........: 50,574 55,574 3,251 3,895 65,954 "7,.J
Week ended j/ :
Mar. 4 ........: 1,168 1,C09 71 174 1,501 2, g?
11 ........: 1,:52 2,612 55 70 1,5C:: 2,941
18 ........: 1,907 2,087 81 75 2,2'8 2,459
25 ........: 1,742 221 57 68 2,010 541
Apr. 1 ........: 1,168 1,245 92 105 1,C.CO 1,779
8 ........: 538 1,142 92 88 970 1,.6
15 ........: 1,217 2/1,457 55 2/ 44 1,475 2/1,664



Compiled from reports of the Department of Co.mmnrce.
i/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not available.
These d.:ta r-'resent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ Preliminary.

Table 9.-Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1937-3, and 1938-39


prid ArCentina Australia Danube : North America
:_1957-38:1938-39:19.7-58:1 E 1 *37-.8:192-3-51; I:92-,- ,193-
; 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,OCO 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

July-Feb. .... 39,312 45,226 61,464 60,680 29,208 33,344 125,800 160,560
Week ended -


MirL. 4
11
18
25 E
Apr. 1
8
15


....:
....:
....:
....:
....:
....:
* .*.


*.* .


2,580
2,220
1,972
1,252
1,6 .0
1,032
1,P.


1,544
2,092
1,940
2,488
4,787
3,200
3,552


3,036
4,528
35,.-56
2,420
4,184
4,520
6,016


5,572
1,748
2,352
2,312
2,5'77
2,P31
2,231


784
416
864
P64
61
688
624


??5
472
1,080
512
808
440
1,40*''


3,320
2,408
3,624
3,392
2, 16
1,.456
2, V8


6,792
4,416
4,569
2,128
3,697
3,745
2,068


:o:.piled from BrooLnh-rll


's Corn Tr'-re IV. w-:.




UIJIVERSITY CF P (, A

3 1262 08861 8417


Table 10.- Net imports of :.-At,
countries, year q*i:.-''i


including flour, into Euroean
.g July 1, 1937 and 1938


C : : Reported not imports
Country : 1937-38 : 1938-39 t July 1 1937-38 1938-39
a forecastt 1/b to : 1
: Million Million a : Million Million
a bushels bushels I : bushels bushols

Belgium .......... t 36 39 :Jae. 31 : 25 21
Ozecosl3ov-ia ...: 2/ 1 1 : Aug. 31 : 2/ 1 1
Denmark ..........: 6 7 Feb. 28 1 4 4
Finland 3..... ..... 3 3 : J3n. 31 1 2 2
France ...........1 15 2 : Jan. 31 s 8 4
Ger-ar.y ..........: ) : Feb. 28 1 34 30
Austria .......... ) 54 45 an. 31 : 4 5
Greece ...........: 18 13 t Dec. 31 t 7 7
Ireland ..........: 14 14 a Feb. 28 t 10 11
Italy ............a 5 18 t Jan. 31 s 5 6
Latvia ...........: 1 0 1 Jan. 31 1 1/ 3/
Netherlr-jds ......s 24 26 1 Feb. 28 t 16 19
Norway ............ 7 Feb. 28 : 4 5
Poland ...........: 0 2/ 3 Feb. 28 s / 2/ 2
Portugal .........: 1 3 Dec. 31 : 3/ 4
Sweden ........... : 2/ 1 0 1 Feb. 23 : 2/ 1 1
Switzerland ...... 14 17 1 Feb. 28 a 10 12
United Kingdom ...: 193 217 a Feb. 28 : 126 14Q

Total imports of: a :
above .........: 391 413 4 : 255 272
: I
Spai. ............ 3 15 :


Total imports ..: 394 428
Total exports ..t 2 3 2 2
T^ 1 net imports 392 425 253 270

1/ Formcasts by Eur:)cp.n offices of U. S. Department of Agriculture.
2/ Net :--ports.
SLess thnn 700,000 bushels.
4/ :t exports of sLes than 500,000 bushels.


Compil, 'l from official sources exclrt as otherwise stated.


WS -


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