Wheat situation

MISSING IMAGE

Material Information

Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00041

Related Items

Succeeded by:
Wheat outlook & situation


This item is only available as the following downloads:


Full Text





UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

FEBRUARY 23, 1939

THE W H E A T SI T U A TI O N
INCLUDING RYE
S-a -mm am a -e -e -- -S.a -s -.s -.. -e -. -. -g a a-


WHEAT: CASH AND GROSS FARM INCOME. UNITED STATES, 1910-38

DOLLARS
(MILLIONS )

1.500 l _


1,250


1,000


750


500


250


0


CALENDAR YEAR BASIS


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 34748 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


WHEAT IS A CASH CROP, ONLY A VERY SMALL PART OF IT BEING CONSUMED AS
FOOD BY PRODUCERS. THE CASH INCOME FROM THE PRODUCTION OF WHEAT IN THE
UNITED STATES VARIES GREATLY. IT WAS THREE TIMES THE PRE-WAR AVERAGE BY THE
END OF THE GREAT WAR, AND LESS THAN ONE-HALF OF THAT AVERAGE AT THE BOTTOM
OF THE DEPRESSION IN 193't


WS-28









T HE EA T S I T U A T ION


i.';rld wheat produCtion I/ for the rast season is nrw estimated by the

-,.r:nu of "Iricultural Eccncics at 4,535 million bushels, which is about cr

million bushels lar .--r than the 1,7 rce. .-rd revisions during the >.t

r.nth include 29 million bushels for the Danubian Basin countries, 3 million

bushels for other Euro-man countries and 4 million bushels for Argentina. A

sl:.-ht downward revision has been made in the 1937 estimate.

Wheat prices in domestic and foreign markets have declined since the first

of February, influenced by increased shipments from Argentina, a less tense poli-

tical situation in Europe and i:-.--rved prospects for our winter wheat crop. i'cavy

Southern Hemisphere shipments usually have a depressing effect on wheat prices at

this time of the year. The extent of Eurc-n:r. buying, crop conditions in the

winter wheat States, and gen.-ral business sentiment also will continue to affect

wheat prices during the next few months.

Wheat stocks in the United States as of January 1 are estimated at 565

million bushels, which is 123 million bushels more than a year earlier and 284

million bushels larger than the small stocks in 1937. Cn the basis of the

January 1, 1939 stocks figures, the domestic wheat disappearance for the July-

Deremiber 1938 period has been estimated at 382 million bushels, which compares

with 386 million bushels during the same months of 1937. Stocks of all classes

of wheat exncet soft red winter were larger than last year and much larger than

the rsmrall stocks on January 1, 1937.

rn the b'Asis f the indicated disappearance for the first 6 months, the
be
dir[rr:r rare fCr the entire season, through June 1939, is c.xi-cted tc/almost

-* ... r wo-rld production and stocks in this report exclude Soviet
I s i a f;r. d C( i:rK. a.










the same size as te e : f race C 700 million bushels fcr he r ci-" i

July 1, 1937. If disarm '.-rance apprcximates 70C million bushels ans ,xperts

1i mill i n bushels, tI carry--ov- r :next July :.ill be u:bcut 2 3 million (' r 1 c.

Prospects still a tpear to ir icate n:-,t i:' crt of tcout 42 1il1lion b'h-

els by European net imn:crtir- countries. V:orld shipments to non- .rop-ran

entries, :w:ver, are nowvi x .oted to be larger than the l. m:illicn busls

pr viously estimated, and are placed at about 135 million bushel:, macki. a tocal

of about 5r-1 million bushels for these two items. The comparable fi-ure f r a

year earlier was 497 million bushels.

Considerable frost d: --.:e has been reported in some Eur r.an countries,

notably in -'r .ce and '-. ium. Condition in ola.nd, while good, is less f:vor-

able than at this time last year. Condition in Germany varies from aver.A-e to

below average. In the north rn section of Italy the crop is reported to be sub-

normal. In the -,.ube -.'-in countries, on the other hand, condition is generally

favorable.


T. ;?RLD ~HIFEA.T SITU-MTI 'T

BAC:-'.'' L.- Total world supplies of wheat 1/ increased sharp-
ly from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result cf~increased acreage.
From 19T3 to 1936 world supplies declined, follew:i.,- successive
years of small production and increased Orld demand. In 1037
wCrld supplies, estimated at 4,4,: million bushels, '.ere 85 mil-
lion bushels lar gr than in If:6. Increased production in 1938
resulted in total supplies of 5,167 million bushels, or :an in-
crease in one y oar of about 750 million bushels.

Total world shipments of wheat av raged ';"1 :illin
bushels for tii 5 y rs, 1923-27, reached a pe-k of 913 million
bushels in the year beginning July 1, 1920, then declined
sharply, lar, ly as a result of measures taken I: impnrt in.
countries to reduce the use i- foreign wheat. For the r:.r
bc, ir:.irY July 1, 1937, net i.-;:orts totaled 4.7 million bush-
els, and for the current season t -ar are forecast at 5-; mil-
lion bushl s.
1/ All references to world production and stocks in this report exclude. Soviet
Russia and China.





-4 -


1 rir: the 1924-33 period, ;hor. world supplies of wheat
wer incre- s:g, world prices were declining; prices reached the
1' -ciint as .;:lies reached the hi h. T'r sharp decline in
prices ,:f-.r 1929 ,.s duo l.r _.ly to the general decline in in-
dustrial activity and commodity prices. Frcn the sprint of 1933
to tCh sumIr.r of 1937, world wheat prices moved steadily up?;:c rd,
reflecting the wcrld-wide recovery in commodity price levels,
currency depreciation, four successive beloJi-average harvests in
.crth Amt:rica, and the 1935-36 short Southern Hemisphere crop.
Tith little chtik:ge in the world wheat supply or in the wholesale
price lev.1, the world price for the 1937 crop remained practi-
caliy unchartged froi. that of a year earlier. Large supplies in
1938 togetr.er with the world business recession, resulted in a
sharp decline of prices.

worldd wheat supplies and trade

Tetal wheat production for the 1938 season is now estimated at 4,535
million bushels, compared with 3,.'*5 million bushels for the 1937 season. The
second estimate of the wheat production in Argentina is 319,667,000 bushels and
the quality of the threshed grain is reported to be generally good throughout the
count r:-. During the past month there have been upward revisions of 29 million
bushels for the Danubian l..sin countries, 3 million bushels for other European
countries, and 4 million bushels for Arrgetina. Downward revisions in estimates
for the 197 production further increased the spread. In the case of Spain, the
estimate for 1'.:7 was decreased from 132 million to 110 million bushels, whereas
for 1938 it was decreased from 103 million bushels to 96 million bushels, accord-
ing to the Paris office of the United States Department of Agriculture.

Table 1 shows the estimated world wheat supply and prospective distribution
for the y-.. r beginning July 1, 1938, compared with that of 1937. This includes
revisions in the production estimates fcr both last year and this :-y..r and also
revisions in the prospective disappearance. ..nile a very tentative forecast has
been included for this disappearance, which permits a deduction regarding the size
cf the carry-cver in July 1959, the dis:aplearanee might be 50 million bushels more
or less than that estimated. At this time it would appear that the disa:-pearance
in several countries will be relatively heavy. moreoverr apparent over-estimates
in official production estimates involve a large statistical disappearance. Even
with a largo prospective disappearance, the carry-over next July will probably be
of record size.

Table 1.- Estimated world supply and prospective distribution, year
beginning July 1, l.'-58, compared with 1937

Iter : Ye:ar bEginnirg July 1
: ] "'. -t .I..1 :ir .. I t i- n ps
,: i ii ilT: .. :L, T.. 1 -i p s
C- rry-over July 1 1/2/ ..........: 519 595
Prcd'ution 1/ ................ 3,855 4,535
Stet l su ,rly .............. : 4,374 5,150
Net ex:rorts from Scvi t ;-,-sia ...: 39 37
.a1 f above .. .......... 4: 4,413 5,167
Disa r* 7ree .................. : 3,818 3,917
CD rry-ver Junei 30 ............... 595 1,250
.. -; 'i f, f "' :.:> i reolti -~ in 3:vi nt L.Ci. y j and China.
./ Differs frrm f: ircs in table 16 by including only old crop wheat.


*HS-ZF






ws-.3 5 -

Table 16 -h.ws the estimated world -'ir.rly and di-iDearance -ir.ne I'32.
Stck,:s from 17 1 to l'-L were the lar -st on record un to that time; in
1931-3." the List.pear--..-e reocd -- ut 3,990 million I'-.-ls. In table 1l
the 1937 :-_ni 1938 -,rr.---, er .timats ar l1r- r :':yt 20 million :-hels thn
in t.'rl 1, in crder to me -o entire s-ries comparable. In 1939 it was
r:'ssible tr -?cS umt for '7 million bushels io new wheat in commercial --r.4
merchant m".l stocks, and it 'wa estimated thnt the same quantity was in-
clui:-i a y ar e~lier. -'r is at present no ibsis ui--n which to determine
the quantity ::' new wheat in July stocks in these two positions for the
earlier :.'~ors. v-': w .-t in farm and interior mill and elevator sto the other two r- sitions incl'aied in the July 1 stocks figure, have al'-,s
excluded ncw-crr w'. -t.

T"';2e 2 shows C* estimated wheat surplus for export or carry-over
on Fr"':r'-ry 1, 1939, for C n -, Ar"-entina, and Australia, as well as United
Kin;ilom port stocks and stock afloat. :.hse total 537 million bushels
cor-..-red with 300 million bushels a year earlier, and 373 million '"u-'-ls in
1937. T?. estimate for C-r.da is 178 million bushels, for Ar-:rtina 218
million, and for Australin 88 million .u'hI:s.

Table 2.- Wheat surplus for erort or carry-over in three exporting
countries, United Kir.;-:.m port stocks and stocks afloat,
February 1, 1936-39 Li
Position : 1936 1937 : 1938 1939
: Mil. bush. Mil. bush. Mil. bush. Mil. bush.
Carnda -
In Canada ...............: 241 87 54 172
In United States .........: 29 21 3 6

Argentina ..................: 56 117 74 218
Australia ................. : 90 s6 121 83
Total .................: 416 311 252 484
United Kingimc port stocks..: 9 8 11 17
Stocks afloat to:
United Kingdom ..........: 17 22 17 18
Continent ................: 7 16 10 7
Orders ..................: 2 16 10 11
Total ...................: 35 62 48 53
Grand total ...........: 451 373 300 537

I/ Carry-over at the beginning of the y:ar (Cannda, July 31; Arr-ntina,
January 1; Australia, Deccmber 1 of the previous .::rr) plus production, minus
domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly exports to date.

Tables 20 to 23 show the current international what mov ..nent with
comparisons. Prospects still qrnear to indicate net imports of about 429
million bushels K'. 3urrpean net importing countries, Shipments to non-
Euror.e.-n countries, how-.ever, are now expected to be lar ,.-r than the 115
million bushels previously estimated, and are placed at about 135 million,






- 6 -


r:'-ir.. a total of about 53' million bushels for these two items. World ship-
ments from July 1938 t-hrcgh F-ilruary 1939 were the largest since 1932-33,
tot.lir., about half of the estimated shiprrnts for the entire season. Heavy
bbyin.- in the early part of the rs.ion resulted from the small size of the
European carry-over stocks and the unsettled political conditions. The
extent to which urope-rL countries build up emergency stocks will be an
important factor in determining the imports during the remainder of the
marketin- season.

If total imports apprc:xi-.ate 564 million bushels for the season be-
ginnir. July 1939, exports by the various countries r.-r be about as follows,
in million bushels: United States 100, Canada 142, Arr-entina -and Australia
tc,-:ther 190, Danubian countries 75, and Soviet Union 37. The difference
between the 564 million bi-hels and the total of the individual countries
includes shipments by other countries, and also involves the necessary
balr.ncin. ~ between shipments and receipts resulting from differences in time
and methods of accounting.

Supplies available for e:xprt in surplus producing countries for the
year beginning July 1935, after allowing for domestic requirements and
carry-over stocks, totaled more than 900 million bushels, or between 350
and 400 million bushels in excess of probable imports.

Tables 18 and 19 show exports of United States wheat and flour made
wholly of United States wheat by countries for 6-month periods beginning
July 1935.

Production in the United States in 1935 and 1936 was small as the
result of abnormally low yields per acre. Exports were accordingly
restricted, but in 1937 nd 1933 production was ngain large and exports in-
creased. Table 17 shows the course of exports since 1909, particularly
the downward trend since the late 20's, when huropean countries encouraged
the production of wheat and discour-i.ei the use of foreign wheat. Exports
from other surplus producing countries declined during this period along
with those from the United States.

A program to encourage farmers' wheat pools in Canada will be
presented to Parliament, according to an announcement by A-ricultural
Minister Gardiner to the House of Comm-ons February 16. This is presumably
planned as a substitute for the present fixed price scheme, which has
proved extremely costly.

Alrr--,- nnd condition of fall-sown '..he t and rye

2.-' winter wheat r-r-c)ie sown for harvest in 1939, in the ten countries
for which reports have been received to date, are estimated at 118 million
acres. -.1s is a decrease of 7 percent, compared with the 127 million acres
reported as sown in the same countries for harvest in 1938. Most of this
decr(tse occurs in the United States, where sown acreaI:-e shows a decrease of
18 percent, e.r-.rred with that of last .cir. In the other countries reporting
a rain of 2 percent over the acreage sown for harvest in 193g is indicated.

The acr',n,'e sown to rye in the seven countries reporting is estimated
to be 3 percent .-.ve that of last year.






-7-


In France, seedings up to January 1 were 1 percent belew those of tho
previous year. CAnsiderable damage to the crop has been reported, ir.nl re-
seeding has been hindered by excessive moisture ind frosts. Th'~ rir a
destroyed is officially estimated to be 3,460,000 acres, which is 28 percent
of the reported swings up to January 1.

The acreage in India was reported, in January, at about 2 percent
above the 1938 acreage. The condition rf the crop on January 1 was reported
to b- 85 percent of n-rmal.

In Poland the winter grains are reported to be in good condition but
decidedly less favorable than on the same date a year ago. The condition in
Italy is mostly favorable though in the northern section condition is re-
ported as sub-normal. In Belgium 75 percent of the crop is reported to
have suffered frost damage. Part of the damaged acreap.e is expected to be
re-seeded. Winter crops in the Danubian countries are in generally favorable
conditions. In Germany conditions range from average to slightly below
average. Prospects in the United Kingdom are, on the whole, satisfactory.
The weather in Soviet Russia this winter has been considered unfavorable
for winter crops. Other parts of Europe report winter crops in average
condition.


Table 3.- Winter wheat area swrn In specified countries for
harvest in 1937, 1935, and 1939


Item : 1937 : 1938 : 1939


Wheat
United States ....................
Canada .......... ..... .. ..... :
Total (2) ....................:
Bulgaria .......... ........ .. .:
France l .............. ...........:
Italy ....... ................ .
Latvia ............................:
Lithuania ....................... .
Rumania ............. ............:
India 2/..........................:
Tunisia ................... :....
Total (8)...................:
Total (10)....................:
Rye
United States ............. .... ..:
Canada ............ ..... .... ....:
Total (2) ....................:
Bulgaria .................... .....:
France 1/............. ............ :
Latvia ........................:
Lithuania ..... ..... ..... .........:
Rumania ...........................:
Total (5) ................ ..:
Total (7) .......... .......o ,
Plantings to January 1. / Jan


1,000 acres 1;000 acres 1,000 acres


57,656
781
58,437
2,-845
12, 772
12,692
170
379
7,966
32,165
2,429
71,418
129.855


7,371
799
8.,170
402
1,620
S706
1,250
1,090
5,068
13,238


56,355
815
57,170
2,874
12,353
12,149
167
357
.8,336
31, 10
1,644
69,690
126.860


6,671
5'2
7.25
436
1,621
703
1,296
1,102


12,411
12, 1II


46,173
799
46,972
3,025
12,249
12,635
180
361
8,386
32,292
2,125
71.253
118.225


7,171
596
721

1,60
724
1,278
939


12,735


uary estimates.


__ _I-


--7- T


L --


----


I


---


III I[


-- ~-


I ....







- 8-


Wheat prices in foreign markets

Cash wheat prices in foreign markets for the week ended February 17
were much the same as a month earlier. In late January increased purchases
by English millers and the lack of selling pressure from the Southern
Hemisphere countries resulted in some rise in prices.

Shipments from Argentina have been retarded this year in the hope that
production in the United States and some European countries, where conditions
had been reported as below average, will improve marketing conditions later
in the season. Shipments from Argentina since January 1 have totaled
practically the same as in early 1938 despite a surplus 2-2/3 times as large.
During the early part of February, Argentine shipments increased markedly
(tables 20 and 22), and this together with a less tense political situation
in Europe and improved prospects for our winter wheat crop resulted in a
lowering of prices.

Prices of imported wheat in Liverpool are shown in table 4, and prices
of May futures at Winnipeg, Liverpool, and Buenos Aires are shown in table 6.

Table 4.- Prices of imported wheat at Liverpool
: Hard wheats :Soft wheats
: U. S. : Canada :
Date : (Gulf) : No. 3 : U. : Argentine:Australian:
friday) :No.1 Dk.Hd. Manitoba :( : Rosafe : Russian
: Winter : I : White
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
1938


Nov. 4
10
18
25
Dec. 2
9
16
23
30

Jan. 6
13
20
27
Feb. 3
10
17


2/ 55.0
/ 55.6

2/ 59.5
2/ 59.2
65.6
1/ 63.5
64.9
68.0

66.5
66.8
66.6
67.9
68.7
68.1
67.7


68.4
69.7
72.0
74.4
76.0
76.6
75.5
73.6
76.3

76.0
75.9
75.3
76.3
76.0
74.3
76.2


67.7
63.8
61.0

62.8
64.4
--


58.8
61.6

65.3
65.8

*62.6
62.3
63.2

61.8
62.4
62.9
69.4
63.6
61.9
62.2


68.4
66.7
66.2
66.7
N---
69.3
64.2

65.4

66.9
67.1
73.9
68.7
69.5
67.4
66.6


57.


/ Empire wheat qualifying for Imperial Preference was
Tapprcximating 6 cents per bushel) prior to January 1,
Agreement of Unvember 1932.
2J I-.. 2 Yellow Hard Winter. 3/ Barusso. 4/ No. 2


exempted from duty
1939 under Ottawa


Dark Hard Winter.


--


WS-,-:'







7, -?9 9 -



r..,....~ T-'* crrxy-over of ,:'eat in the Unit rtaters for
the 5 years I'.:1-. aver m" ardout 1: million bs.snel. 'oc-
which bt-a-l to accumulate in 1929 re c' : the record rpak r 'f
about ::75 m..ili on bushels ini l..?'3. lou s;.;al .'.... I t 'ce rop:s,
however, cr' ced stocks on a coc~Aarabe basis to .bout i00
million bushels July 3, 2.'7. -.: dcmstic disan. .ce
j.ri:.- the 10 years 1.-' -.57 ve' :-ed about 6~"' million '..'.els.

'.':.A't Y: rts from the :.ted .ra.tes declined steadily
after the 'rld War, and in 1'-9 1-.' imports of m.ilinF and
feed ':ets were neess-ary because of sa::ll Unite ..ates
crops of hard red spring ::.. durnu heats and short feed grain
supplies. -':- 1937 wheatt crop was greatly in excess of do:iestic
needs and about 100 million bushels were ex.r':r~-o under condi-
tions of reduced c.::.- :tition because of small crops in Cr-.r::-d;
and r -_-:.tina. In 1.':- another 1 ir-e c:rc' was S :'duced and
er-orts have been the most difficult since 1931 because of lar--e
crc:.' in other c- ~'tir., countries and in many of the i,.:orting
countries.

.,:..eitic wheat prices from the spri:: of '1-3 to that
of 1977 were unusually hi;- in relation to world market prices,
because of four smll domestic crops caused largely by ab-
:i':..:.ly low yields ,.-r acre. During the r :1 .inn July
1'.. C. both world and domestic prices advanced s'l.rply as a
result of increa,- demaR:d c:.d the smallest sjrr-lies in recent
years. Prices received by producers for the 192-37 season
aver .ed 107 cents, and the following year,' with increased
supplies, slow European demand and a fallin.- price level, they
aver-i: 96 cents. Larr; domestic and world supplies in the
year t' -inr.ir.g July 1, 1938, have been a price-depressi :;
fa.t or.

.7:c- t s'.-r~l, and di.-: rarner. in the United -tates

Wheat stocks in the ir.ited St tes as of January 1 are estimated at 565
millionn busr,els, which is 1.3 million bus es more than a -. ar earlier and 284
millionn bushels l-.:'-:-r than the s. 1 stocks in 1937 (table 11). C. the basis
of the January 1, 17.9, stocks figures, the d-"-.stic wheat disarpearance for
the July-December I:"- period is estimated at. ."' million bushels, compare.i
with 3,96 million bushels in thf s'i:e period a year earlier. :.cs esti-ates of
*:h'.' -t stocks on January 1 b:- classes and positions for 1936-39 are shown in
table 12, and the July-December estimates of disa :. arrance by classes in table 5.
Stocks of all classes of .I:. at exc, t soft red winter were lar-:-r than last year
--.m much l'r -r than the small stock>: on Janua :r" 1, 3'..









Talle 5.- l7ti..ates of :'heat stocks, July 1, July-December imports and e.xp-rts, 38
January 1 stocks, and July-D-cember dis-apearance, continental United States,1935-


Item
.i
All wheat

4 Production ............ .......:
* Imports, Jul.y-D-ec. "3J'-"....-:
+ imports, July-Dec. 3/..........:
- Ex-port s, July-Dec ....
- Stocks, Dec. 31................
Disappn- rance, July-Dec. / :
i--- .. .. ,, W .r.t.r
Stocks, July 1 ................:
+ Production ....................:
- Exports, July-Dec. ............:
- Stocks, Dec. 31 ............ ..:
Disappearance, July-Dec. ...:
Soft Red Winter
Stocks, July 1 ..........*.....:
SProduction ...................:
- Exports .......................:
- Stocks, Dec. 31 ............. .:
Disapp:--rance, July-Dec. ...
Hard Red Sprin
Stock s July 1 ................:
4 Prodru.tion ....................:
-4 Imports, J ---Dec. .............
- Stocks, Dec. 31 ...............:
Disappearance, July-Dec. ...:
Lur u-.
Stocks, July 1 ...............
+ Production ....................
Imports, July-Dec. ............
- Exports .....................:
- Stocks, Dec. 31 ............:
Disappearance, July-Dec. ....
White
Stocks, July 1 ................:
4 Production ....................:
- E.Torts, July-Dec. ...........C:
- Stocks, Dec. 31 ...............:
Disappear-'nce, July-Dec. ...:


1935 : 1936 :


1937 '


Mil.bu. Mil.bu.


148
626
21
4
429
362


6g
203
1
147
123

32
20o4
0
101
135


142
627
26
6
372
417


57
260
1
153
163

27
207
0
13
151


27
108
19
111
43


Ail -I .

1/103((/ 83)
876
0
41
54013 56
406(2/386)


57(2/ 37)
373
32
233
166(2/146)


15
258
0
131
142


18
102

76
44


13 17


17
100
5
61
51


3
29

0
21
11


10
114
9
71
44


1938'


Mil. bu.

173(2/ 153)
931
0
46
656
402(2/ 382)


77(2_/ 6o)
388
32
279
154(2/137)

40o(2 37)
237
2
120
155(/152).


31
161

146
46


5
42
0
1
34
12


20
103
11
77
35


_/ CoC-.'Larable series of July 1 stocks


contains some new wheat,


2/ In 1937 and 1938 new wheat was estimated at 20 million bushels, which if
deducted, would result in stockc on July 1, 1937 of 83 million bushels and
July 1, 1933 of 153 million bushels. 3/ From rc-.orts of Foreign and Domesti
Commerce of t' c United States. Imports include full-duty, whe-t, wheat paying
a Suty of 10 percent ad valorem, and flour in terms of wheat. 4/ From reports
of Fr.reirn and Domestic Commerce of the United States. Exports are regular
e:-orto luus :? ipments to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, and include wheat
and flour made wholly from 'rncstic wheat. ./ B lancing item.


$


--


i ............ ...... .. i .... II III W 71 1 J


--


~I







- 11 -


Table 10 shows the estimated sp :ply and di r';:r :i ar;n by. : e ...s, by
years, 1. '. to 1937, and t;' :-;i1Ly for I'... "* t : basis of the indicated
;isjp. dancec e for te :":'rst 6 months:, the dis2 yar i.ncr for te entire r
hrou:-'. June 1"-' is Yxp ct: d to i, roi.c' the ize of t i -. '
million :. 1: in 19r7-38. If thL1 is-: t r:c rxi r 0 ... illie I .shi r
nmd e*x-rts rec' 1J00 : million bv:sn Is, the ca*r-y-ov: r n :- Jily will b :.bout
millionn bu.shels. ixrtcrts of hnt or f < ly of itr-d "*ts w t::
for the p-riod JTul' t :,c.-. '* Detb i r 11-"3 were T; million b s ls. Or, te Ibasis
I weekly figures from the Bur:e~: of .Coe,: r'.e, xn~ort: for tIh J':.u .- -F bruary 11
'crici ar. estimated et 16 millionn bus1;i s, i:.. ir.n tot i of 1 '.illioi st1l
for the. sl son to Februairy 11.

T..- table on p -e 25 shows t:. tot:l :J .t asu.- y 'nd distribution in the
United St:-.tos b gi'.*.i'u- 11-:.. Oth r t-bles included in this issue, which contain
fi.ur-.s for the 'i:.lted States covering a numbeIr of y :,rs :rt.: Estimatd pro..c-
tion of wheat by classes, 191.:-38 (t ble 13) ; :'::et production dnd frnm dis--sition
193'w--37 (table 14); and I.onthly sales of wheat and ':.-. '-: franers, 19. -37 (t'ble
15).

"'.,h.t prices in dom stick ii.arkets

'.' ile wheat prices :n .' ,estic markets for the week ended Februn-r'. 18 were
lower than a month earlier, t}i..;. r the year. After declin.ir. the first half of J nuary prices in United States
..arets strein: thened, reflecting tt l:acl of selling res.lii, fro-. the Southern
e-'i..;h-.ere countries and increased purcth1ses by En:lish millers. L:-'ing the early
:art of February, however, prices declined affected by the same; facturs which
lowered foreign markets, inclu2ir.- inmroved prospects for our winter wheat crop.

Prices of hard winter wheat at Kansas City have been running 6 to 7 cents
cver the same Quality at Liverpool. Under somewhat similar export conditions in
a.st years, Kansas City has been around 15 cents under Liverpool. This would
c.oem to indicate that domestic prices are high compared with prices in forei!-.
arkets. Undoubtedly the pr( .-r-m to stimulate -::r-orts coupled with the loan
nrco,r.-i. accounts for this favorable situation.

H .vy Southern Homi.-' h re shiom.cnts usually have a, depressi:-.- effect on
wheat prices at this time of the ycrr. The' extent of i.rcnean buyir.-, crop
conditions in the winter whe t 't :tcs, and .nr .! business sentiment also will
continue to affect wheat rices drin::- th nexti few months.

Durir.. the pest month crop pro".p ,c'ts for winter wheat i-':-rov'd as a result
of moisture over important <'rezs. -'. Cron r:!'"in rd in f'*ir to .-'.od condition in
the stern part of the It and h.l1 imrov d in thi Sout~hwst, especially '-:
'-:'l-homa southward. .Ac:., :.roveoent :was lso -reIortcd in .eastern and north
central K.-...s.-, but the soil wls still very dry in tihe w :,stern portions of that
,tjte and in sections of ."braska. In r .rts of the ,est and "'rthwest the coldest
weather of the season has been ex-nri:nccd. However, whe--t fields in the "::rth-
ern iu.*'-;t Plains and rather generall' in most districts from the Ro'::. Mountains
westward were protected ":.y snow. Conditions in the .Pacific : ;rtihwest h ve been
.:--ne rally fuavorblc.







- 12 -


The A-ricl't"ral Aj.iustment Administration announced on Febrnuary 14 the
rntes f price r..'ustment Tpa-.7-nts to ,,eat .:oducers who plant within their
139 "'hea t acrer- all otments. Payments announced are 11 cents .-r bushel. These
:1il te made on the normal yield cf each producer's allotted wheat acreage. These
;ra: :nts will so-len1enent the regular A'r-icultural Conservation wrr-.-'nts which will
be -rde to cooperators on the normal yi d of their acrc-.re allotments in 139
and wil'1 total 28 cents )er ibushel.


T.hle ,.- Average closi:".- prices of May -T^at futures,
soccified rmrkets and dates, 1937-3S and 17 '-35

: :io1g :Livcnool : Juenos Chicago 'Kansas City: Minneapolis
1ste : / : / : Aires : :
: 7-: -:37- : -38-. 1 .. 1937-:93-:i: 1C -
*: C t.. o t. Ct Ct. Ct. st. Ct. Ct, Ct.


Month-
ov. 110.4
Dec. :11i -.3
Jan. :12 .3
Week :
en ded-
Jan. 7:12-.3
14:127.2
21:125.3
28: 12 .5
Feb. 4:128.7
11: 12 .4
18:127.1
Hl: 5j:12S.4
Low 1/ *1'.3


0.95 11.3 .3.4
-1.3 112.6 2 7 1.3
62.2 113.9 2 36.3


rt2. 113.8
1T 11 4.8
1.s 114.3
62.8 113.1
(12. 112.S
L1.9 114.2
2.5 111.3
2.8 114.8
'1.4 111.3


2J3.4
62.
3.2
64.1
63.2
62.4
62.5
K6.4
62.4


--- 90, 65,7 S7.2
--- 92.1 67.2 97.0
--- 95.5 69.5 94.2


1/112.0 /59.3
1109,81/59, 7

/1l09.1l/59.6
3J109.6359.4
1/103.83/59.5
3/108.95/59.5
o3 112.^/50.6
9103.8 /58.7


97,4


94.2
95,3
93.2
97.4
93.2


70.2
69.0
69.4
69.7

68.0
Ss.o
70.2
8 .0


92.3
96.3
95,0
93.4
0o 2
94.3
91.9
9- .3
91.9


l. 2 97,9
-3.2 9 .7
-6.0 105.4


C5 7
6,9S
65,7
65.8
(.2
65.2
6.1
4.3-

64.1


103.2
107,3
10o .0
105.3
105,6
10 .3
103,4
107.3
103.2


Conv;rsicns at noon buyingg rate of changeg.
New basis at Liverpool, which re,'r -'nnts duty free wheat, used for Decnmber 1938
and January 1539, to date.
: :rc} futures.
February: futu'es.
January 7 to February 1S, 1 ] 3 nnd corresnonOin:,- dates for 1933.
Febru-ary anrd MMarch futures.


67,7
70.0
72.5


73,3
71,9
72,2
72,8
71,8
70.6
70.5
73.3
70.5






- 2- 13 -


T.ble 7.- --i !.--' average c,,sh '''ice of '* t, nnecified mr' rketP arnd


:All c1 s s: 2 -A. 1 :. Hrd YO. 2 : trr-
:ar ... ,rs .. 7- r-:- W7i 1u ter:' : D m. te : + .
Ae : .... [ ...... a~z s:St Lo:iS:7.,..tt e 7
'_ T :j 7 '] :-j ,-'- --7 -;'--.-i?-: 1 7 _- -' 7-:

: Ct. Ct. Ct, Ct. C. ct, ct Ct. Ct. Ct. t,
:.onth- :
:"jv. )3.i5 L-9 1-.4.2 '3.3 11-5.3 73.1 1C0.2 U 3i.7.2 T:.3 7., 63.3
c. .2 :.3 I-.5 /4.9 11'.6 77.3 105.8 70.1 .o c .s 5.5 4.9S
Jan. 1 ".4 72.6 102.7 70.9 127.0 7-7.7 .7 72.7 1' .2 7.4 ','.9 7.
W7e ek
ended
Jan. 7 101.2 73.3 93,3 71.7 12?.2 79.3 1..1 74.3 7,3 74,3 869 7.5
14 : 1---.2 72.7 10o,8 70.8 1731, 7,.1 1"j9 72.0 101.7 73.2 r",0 7,
21 : 12?.3 -,3 103. 70.0 1-.6 79.9 107.5 72.4 1 -.4 71.9 .'.1 8,5
S : 1OS 72.5 101.8 71.7 122.5 80.4 108.9 72.7 100.5 73.3 89.5 h7,4
Feb. 4 : o. -~..5 100.- 70.3 12$.0 79.8 1CE.2 72.9 1('I. 74.1 90.5 (.5
11 : !-,2 ?, 1':2. 68,5 124.g 77J7 110.1 70.8 100.2 73,3 90.3 .
1I : 97.2 70,0 99.0 8.3 117.0 76.4 107.4 7.4 9s2.2 72?2 89, --
High 2/ : 105.2 73.3 1i4.3 71.7 131.1 80.4 110.1 74.3 101.7 74.3 .5 68.5
Low 2 : 97.2 '9.6 .0 6S.3 117.0 7t.4 107.4 70.3 97.3. 71.9 86.9 6r.5

/ We:'kly avera e --' daily -ash quotations, basis :'o. 1 sacked.
2 January 7 to ?eb:-. ry 1L, 1939, and corresonding dates for 1938.


-Ar.! TCOfz "' -' .^.. 'EAT 1!

.e-'ised estimates of cash income from wheat for the calendar years 1910-37
are shown in table 8 and the charts on 1ca.'es 1 and IC. Th=se estimates in-
clude total receipts by farmers from the sale of wheat, but do not include rental
-nd ter.efit poe:r-nts to farmers on wheat in more recent years. 7The esti,-tes of
r-ss income include cash receipts and the value of wheat 'used for human con-
jumntion in farm homes. The 7'.:a.:tity retained for consumTtion from each vear's
crop is valued at the ever, o p-ice received from sales during the cal -.::. r :ear.

T'.. calendar year income from wheat from January 1910 threelg i :.:mbrer 1937
has :--en co.rmn'trd by estiinti'n.- s,-les in each month and evaluat'r..- sales by 1-.e
avera.-e farm rice recciv i by er -.cor- ac r-" the 15th -f 1.e m..nth. T-.c calendar
year income is the sum of the mon'.17. inc men for the 12 calendar -ea.r months.
The Ur._t.- States estimate I f income is the sum of the State estimates.

j T?':en from "Income Parity for A-riculture, Part I F'rn Income, S.-ction 5.
--r:e from t.et, C-londar Ye-rs 1'10-37" (January 1939), and the re )ort on Co'h
?arm Income and i;.e:.-:..-er.t P .-mTnts in 1l7 (Januir-. 20, 1939) copies of which: may
be obtained from the Cffice r., Ir.'ormation, .':.ui of Aricultural Economics,
7a1s' in. to-, D.C. The ccmplte texts contain estimates by States and -ive a
iescrirtion of iPta used ":r.d method of computation,







- 14 -


Income 'fro ':heat crops fluctuates over a wide rarg

Can' income fr-m '.---.t produced in the United States during
the past 3 decades hs f.ctuated rapidly and over a wide rainJae in
response to changing. supply e.:i demand conditions. This is shown by the
chart on pra.' 1 and table 8. The hih income of 1572.87,, in
1919 ~~d the depression lo. of $1'?,757,030 in 1932 are the -tr-ees
in the --, -year record.

Cash income from '.:eat in 1937 was reported as $602,971,00C0 and
exceeded the pre-'.ar aver--. of 1910-14 for the first time since 19:"..
Inc.-_. s from the larger quantity of wheat sold in 1935 was estimated at
3-32,' 91,D' about -L percent smaller th:L'- the 1937 income and some-:.hat
biov: the pre-:.'ar average. The 1937 averag,-. price of $1.03 per bushel,
compared with 69 c -.t.- in 1938, more than offset the larger sales in
the past year.

Factors -ff -.c-1 i!. prices, income

The marked changes in income from .i:hat reflect primarily chaLges
in prices, but occasionally sizable ch.nr-us in production may be signifi-
cant in causinC chay.es in income (figure 1). For example, an increase
in the size of the United States crop is occasionally accompanied by
._ :er p:-icus on account of foreign conditions. This was true in 1914,
19>1, pnd 1924. Small crops and smill quantities to be sold in the
United St7tes, on the other hand, may be accompanied by low prices
because of large foreign supplies or other unfavorable conditions
abroad, or because of a declining or low general price level. Such con-
ditions may be noted particularly in the years 1930-35.

C.'.:'L.-- in domestic wheat supplies affect prices in two ways:
(1) Any change in do:nestic supplies also affects world supplies, which
in turn affects both world d and domestic prices. A cl.a.--: in world
supplies of 50 million bushels ordinarily results in a change of about
1 cent pcr bushel in price. (2) 'Then United States supplies of wheat
-f hard milli,.; quality do not exceed dorn:stic requirements for such
wheat, do.me-tic prices advance relative to prices in imr.ort.g countries.
r'_-:: the spri.,.- of 1933 to the spri":.- of 1937, domestic pric..s rose
above an export basis and averaged between 20 and 30 cents higher than
they would d have aver-L.';ed had the United States produced large crops
and been on en i-.:.ort basis.

Price ch... s Cre not only th) result of c'.- in (fo.-stic
supplies of b:ut t, but also the result of foreign heat er-.plies, changes
in the level of general co.n..o.'ity prices, tr..de.- restrictions by wheat
importing countries, wad ocoCan freight rates. These factors have
fr .,.acntly affected United St ates wheat prices to a greater extent than
r'.-: -s in domestic supplies.


"*S-25










World 7"qr od rarge 2 r' tw nc: 'v

The W"orld :7ar cr otrt'd Kr. bor>al. foreiv;g d4m.. id, ':rn fitn.crn'
income from '-heat increa-sd sh:'rply frMa m .'l to the record ;.1 .. i
1919. r-m.-. 1919, income decli:: wheat! c:" ; ; in : -.. forE countries ...-'j: b.i' .. .ht an in:cr ..2:i d-.. f !d
for United St'.tes ,horat.

'. te years "-- the income from ,.h'--.t f:s rtab
on a level considerably i.Cove pr--war. Fro.: 1'9 'o 193?, accluYl tod
stocks from lr.- crops, t.--.thcr with the depr s::ion, caused price :;
to decline :-.-ply. In 1932, income from ;:L, dr...;d t onl. alf
the pre-,war aver?- .

Total world wheat supplies follo-i-._- the worldl d 'ar increased
sharply until 1933, T:hen ..:orld prices declin-.- rather sharply. -r:': 133
to 1936 world supplies declined follo1i.i successive years of small
production, a.:nd what prices mov -d up-". .rd. Large fortuir.i production,
including incre-.: .:; production in Europe associated -vith increa. .-i trade
b-.arriors, :was an import-.i.t factor in causing the decline in prices -and
reduci:..- income in the years following 1927. These conditions result d
in accumulations of lar'c' stocks in this country .L-d in some forei.-.
c'.' iT r i-'S.

'- great depression in wheat prices .and income a:ter 1'99 resulted
largely from the general decline in prices as a phase of the :,orld-wide
d.-:pression. A sharp advance in income after 1932 was due in part to
world-wide recovery in prices, but also in part to the revaluation of
the dllar ... to successive short crops in North America a .d the sanlM 1
crop in Argentina in 1935. These small crops made it possible to clear
away accumulated carry-over, to be followed by higher prices for the
large 1937 crop. The large ::heat crop in 1938, follov':i...- he lar.-C
crcp in 1937, and associated with lar,-. world Lupplies, resulted in
lower prices eand lower i..cc -'.







WHEAT: SALES, PRICE, AND CASH INCOME.UNITED STATES, 1910-38
INDEX NUMBERS (1910-14=100)
PERCENT 1 I I


1910


1915 1920 1925 1930 1935
CALENDAR YEAR BASIS


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 34749 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I.- CASH INCOME FROM WHEAT FOLLOWS VARIATIONS IN PRICES MORE CLOSELY THAN
VARIATIONS IN QUANTITY SOLD. IN ONLY A FEW YEARS DOES IT APPEAR THAT PRICES FOR
WHEAT IN THE UNITED STATES RESPOND OPPOSITELY TO QUANTITIES SOLD. PRICES RECEIVED
BY PRODUCERS ARE AFFECTED MORE BY WORLD SUPPLIES AND GENERAL PRICE-LEVEL MOVEMENTS
THAN BY THE QUANTITIES OF WHEAT FOR SALE IN THE UNITED STATES.


300


250


200


150


100


50


0






- 17 -


Pablo 8.- Unit.-i States: C. 1 s, hoe con -'--tion, cnf h inc om -r.,
frcss inc-me from whc'it, 1910-37


Calendar:
year


A'.v-r ,"e.
price:
Sales per
'--?:. l
I


: : Av,?r ^eg :
Cash : : price :
income : Quantity: per : Vlue :


: >!


1, c000.O


519,6g4
530,231
59 ,923
632,307
773,318
76',757
686,733
532, 29
754,655
746,571

639,823
7?0,005
678,382
643, 881
710,045
579,721
66g,678
754,863
74C, 604
706,719

61g, q94
635,797
543,186
468,067
387,998
451 ,430
465,697
~73,973
62c,725


1,0r0 1,Cs 0
budkrelf Do11'~rv do!.lars


1,000
dollars

L4,6!,3
445,952
493,335
492,892
673,982
773,391
82, 642
1,o66, 869
1,532,743
1.572,387

1,367,759
866,042
660,955
604,969
798, 762
843,613
842,8541
894,974
770, 45
726,949

451,447
265, 723
199,757
304,030
316,725
372,178
50o, 790
602,971
432,691


i.o04
.91
.98
.91
.96
1.15
1.29
2.11
2.14
2.19

2.32
1.31
1.13
1.10
1.24
1.61
1.39
1.30
1.33
1.20

.90
.53
.45
.76
.90
.87

i.o6
1.02
.73


10,gs'
10,965
10,036
10,919
10,299
12,9,6
15,673
25,156
27,921
25, 458

26,272
14, 386
12,555
11,951
12,735
17,191
15,038
12,231
10,212
8,o04

9,079
7,975
7,226
12,309

13, .-7
13,705
14, 576
9,636


1, O"r "
dollars

505,497
45,917
503,371
503,811

7'6,377
844, 315
1,092,025
1, -,664
1,597,845

1,394,o31
880, 428
673,510
616,920
811497
g6o, so4
857, 592
01)7,205
7 0,6907
734,997

460, K-.6
273,705
106.983
I6, 983
316,339
330, :
"),035
L64, 9
617, 547
GL3~ 7


Weighted by sales in each State.
SWeighted by home consumption in each State.


1910
1911

1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919

1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929

1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938


jr: ss
income


10,457
12,103
10,2?1
11,935
10,757
11,318
12,182
11,918
13,022
11,614

11,325
10,996
11,116
10,906
10,268
10,691
10,791
9, 4-o
7, 6 2
6,6 .-

10,131
15,090
16,07,3
16.28R
15,457
15, 70
13, 414
13,183
13,-70


.95
.84
.83
.78
.87
1.01
1.21
2.00
2.03
2,11

2.14
1.10
.97
.94
1.12
1.46
1.26
1.19
1.04

.73
.42
.37
.65
.82
.82
.97
1.03
.69


15 5 pill


--










hec.t : Sp i strl'. ton, i I : o eaace in continental United States, 1923-38


5II2L1


Stocks .' 1


: In aer charts
In cutrv mills and:
ci : Conerciallelevators
!: e iorst stocks I:an estoredl
I i :for others:


al


SImports
New (flour
crop :included)
:3/
.1


With new wheat in


: 1,000 1.000 1,00 1,000
I b ush bmr.1hei a g s bushels
commercial and merhnAnt mill osoOca


1,000 1.000 1,000
buhhesl bushels bushels


1923 ..............: .'39
192. ............... 29,.
19 .............. : ,-071
S-.. . .: -.071
1927 ..............: : 6
1928 ..............: 19,588
1929 ..............r 45,106
1930 ..............: 60,-6
1931 ..............: 37, -67
1932 ............... 93.76o9
1933 **.*..** **...*. 8".R B'
1931 ..............: 6 .2516
193 62,516
1935 .............. : 44, 339
1936 ..............: -. ,9s
1937 .............. 21,851
19' ............: 59,113
With only old wheat in .11 ,toks


i7,117 23, '
36,626 38,112
25,27 23,900
29, vi 16.1.
21,770 21,052
19,277 .?
41, 90,4.
60, 109,
' 252 03,
11, 5g5 ls, io5
6r,296 13.712
-4,150 so,54
1i 21,951
",. : 332
11,94 3 1.197
31,443 28,333
rao itions


1937 .............. 21.851
1938 .............. 59,113


11,942 9 9,022 6/ 40,399
31,143 3/ 22,190 6/ 40,791


S-t14 875,676
153.537 930,o01


634 959,524
- 1,os4,338


DISTRIBUTION


I
ear Exports and shiments "
beginning xporfl ,xpors (flour
July (wheat flour asinc ed): Total
only) : wheat : /


i appearance
I ^ e I ']: F- .e- ,rIi.
S:on farmscommercial
Seed :of wheat: feeds Total
:growers) : 8 3/


I Per
Stocks I capital
June 30 Idisappearance
/ 1 total
s lees
i seed


3 1,000 1,000
3 bushels bushel
With new .wheat in com.narcLal ,n


..... 7 78,793
3..... 195,490
..... 63,189
..... 156,250
..... 145,999
..... 103,114
..... 92,175
..... 76,365
...... 96,521
..... r o',? 7
.....: 18,800
.....* 3,019
...... 311
...... 3,168
...*. 83,707
only old wheat i


67,213
59.,478
31.428
49,761
45,228
38,106
,8179
36,063
26,376
10,979
6,798
7,512
3,896
1 .nag


1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels

2,973 148,979 74,111
2,871 257 839 79.9?5
2,741 97,'-. 78.828
3,082 209,093 83,264
2,692 19~,919 89,864
3,172 144 392 83,663
2,983 143,337 83,353
2,850 115,278 80,886
2,757 125,654 80,049
3,023 34,889 83,513
2,779 28,377 77,832
2,783 13,314 82,585
2,90s 7,115 87,555
3,oo09 12,276 96,593
3,-1 103,390 94,533


1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels bushela Buahel&


69,670
55,727
28,214
4, 261
", 507
5b, 566
589769
157,185
173,991
124, 912
72,261
83,700
83,168


n all qtocky posit g


476.525
477,146
474,223
496,391
544,091
513.842
477,305
509,063
499,802
511.154
476,980
6,148
488,590
503,267
495.313


620,306
612,768
581,265
613,916
678,462
654,071
619,427
747,137
753.842
719.579
627,073
655.433
659,313
688,132
702,706


137,087
108,401
100,225
109,506
112,372
228,373
288,879
313,288
375,473
377,942
274,328
147.543
142,076
102,889
173,103


83,747 16.322


3,321 103.390 94,533 112,860 495,204 702,597 153,537 4.7


1 1923 to 1926 Bradstreets, excluding country elevator stocks.
SStocks in merchant mills and elevators 1923 and 1924 estimated in absence of actual figure: 1925 to
1938, Bureau of Census figures raised to represen- all merchant mills. Stored for others 1923 to 1929
estimated in absence of actual fir res; 1930 to 1 P*'. Bureau of Census figures raised to represent all
merchant mills.
3/ From reports of D:.r.l,. and Domeotic Comonerce of the United States. Imports include full-duty wheat,
wheat paying a duty of 10 percent al Ptlorem, ntd flour in terms of wheat: and exclude flour free for
export as follows: 42,7:4 buchuels in 1 i'-'. 10o,095 bunhels in 1937- '.-t.-irts include only flour made
from domestic wheat; 192"'-" estimated on basia of total exports less wheat imported for milling in bond
and export adjusted for changes In cArry-over; beginning 1935 figures for exports of flour wholly
from United States wheat.
SIncludes durum wheat returned from Montreal estimated at 1,500,000 bushels.
For 1937 excludes 7,11,,-'.' bushels new *heat; for 14-' excludes 6,1l'.000 bushel new wheat.
For 1937 excludes new wheat estimated at 12,500,000 bushels; for 1938 excludes 13,423,000 bushels
reported as new wheat by Bureau of Cenrus.
1/ Shipments rre to Alaska, 1Hawai, Puerto Rico, and .'ir,_-r Islands (Virgin Islands prior to December 31.
1931 included vlt th domestic exports).
8/ Balancinj- itec.
2/ For Individusl iteLn see eu ply nect on.
Bureau of AgrI eil t irrl Sr. nor ms.


Crop year
beginning
July


SOn
farms


Total
supply


1,000
busghela


31,000
33,000
?5,576
2 7 :


51.279
59,170
41,202
71,714
107,052
,3,114
9,5241
5,590
.- 214


132.' 1-
137,o087
10o, 01
100,225
109,506
112,372
228,373

713,288
375. 73
377,942
274,328
147, L7
142, T.: .
102,....
173,103


759,1482
841,617
668,700
832.213
7f .059
914,373
823.217
886,470
941,674
756,927
551,683
52'.393
626, 7
626,766
875,676
930,801


14,578
304
1,747
77
188
91

3 5
7
10

4/ 15,569
3.z617
34,1455
634


906,372
979,008
77s8,89
932.515
984,753
1,026,8 6
1:051.,3
1,175.70-3
1,254,969
1,132,410
929.778
816,290
80, 504
803.297
979,199
1,103,904


1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
With


1937 *.....


wit mnyad11 A n !agan t


With onlv old wheat In All stocks nonition


:






ws-" e 19 -
Table 1%.-'*. *t: Estimat'. suinly ni blistribution b' clse, c, aver"--
1^ --33, nnunlly y'i'-rs ~inning July 1, 193-38
Item nAvcr arc: Y .r T ininn. Jul;-i_ 1_
-_______:13:, 1, : 195 : 1 : I5 : ___ __-


: il.bu.


Stocks,July I 1/.:
Production ......:
Imports IJ........
Surrly .....:
Exports 4/.......:

Di sn.pF'ar.r. ..rc 5/ :
Stocks July.1 ....:
Proiu- tion ......:
SiTrply ....:
Exports .........:
Carry-over ......:


Di


St
Pr

Ex
Cr
Di

St
Pr
Im

Ex
Ca
Di

St
Pr
Im

Ex
Ca
Di
St
Pr
Ex
C?
3Di
/


317
7, 2
T--


Mil.bu.
274
526
16
~ -]T


Mil.bu. Mil. bu.
148 1l42
626 627
34 34
g? ?03


Mil.

1/103
876


bu.


(2/ 3) 1/ 173(/ 153)
:31

(:- '' i d '


ci ?


?) 13 7 12 103
_ 325 148 1 4 1/103(2/ 8) 173(2/153)
694 655 659 68s(21712) 703(2/703)
Hard Aeid -iter
161 125 61 57 57(2/ 37) 77(2/ E6)
349 208 203 260 373 3,7
510 333 271 317 430(2/410) 465(2/ 448)
52 3 2 3 74
167 68 57 57(2/ 37) 77(2/ 60)


appearance ...: 291 262 212 257(1277) 2(9(/276)
Soft Red Winter
ocks, July I...: 32 36 32 27 15 4o(o/ 37)
eduction ......: 185 8Igs 204 207 258 237
Supply .....: 217 224 2-7 27 1 273 277(2/ 274)
norts ........: 2 --- 5
rry-over ....... 35 32 .. 7 .40(2/ 37)
appearance ...: 180 192 209 219 228(2/231)
Hzrd eid Spring
ocks, July 1 ..: 79 74 27 34 18 31
oduction ......: 135 53 lOS 51 102 161
ports .........: --- 9 30 25 ----_
Supply .....: 214 136 165 110 120 192
orts .........: 1 -- -- -- 2
.rry-over .......: 79 27 34 18 31
sappe~rance ..: 134 109 131 92 87
Durum
ocks,July 1 ...: 24 9 5 7 3 5
o auction ......: 40 7 25 9 29 42
reports .........: --- 7 4 9 --
Supply .....: 64 23 34 25 32 47
ports .......: 7 -- -- --
xry-over ......: 20 5 7 3 5
sappearrnce ...: 37 18 27 22 27
White
ocks,July 1 ...: 21 30 16 -T~ 10 20
education ......: 83 70 g6 100 114 103
Supply .....: 104 100 102 117 124 123
ports .........: 28 10 5 9 22
rry-over ...... 24 16 17 10 20
snopear.nce ... : 2 74 80 98 82
Comparable s3rics of July 1 stocks contains some new wheat. 2 New wheit in


commercial and merchant mill stocks excluded beginning in 1937. I/ Fromt reorts
of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United States. Imports include f'ill-3uty
what, wheat p.ayinr; a duty of 10 percent ad valorem, nnd flour in t :rms of wh'.t.
/ From reports of foreign -in Domestic Commerce of the United St.ates. E\norts are
regular exports plus shipments to Alaska, HF.wili, nnd Puerto Rico, ir.d include what,
and flour made wholly of domestic wheat. ,Z Balancing item.
See "The Wheat Situation", February 1937 for the fiGures for 1930, August 1937 for
tnb for 1931 and 1932, and february 1938 for thoae for 1933.


I


I


I
I-


2.
.1- ~





- 20 -


Telo I.-W.heat ---ocKs in th9 United t -,t tus, -Janusr 1, 1935 to 193"


Position


: 1935 : 1936


1,000
: buhels

On f'rcs co:cinod :
::ith interior mil'L:
-.^d .e vr.tors .....: 237,hb:
Coanercial .........: 90,937
Merchant mill stoc.:-:
and stored for
others I/ ........: 106,392


1,000 1,0C 0
bushels bushels


242,703
76,6914


2,36,54
G2
3'Gr


J] ,C 1 ,000
busiF, I's bushels


323,335
9-,520


419,786
123,74g


109,634 102, 32 115,567 107,706


Total .......: 434,777


429,036 371,652 533,422 656,32.


I/ B-reau of C-no'us figure raised to repr .jet all mcrch 7nt mill rmd
elevator stocks.


I :
S1937 : 193-


: 1939
J-)-









Ta'ble '.- Estimates of rtockr of wheat by cIlsses, continental


-Ii ition


: 1936 : 1937 1: l9 -' : 1939
*


All .*^: :
Farm stocks combinr-. with :
interior mill & elevator :
stocks ...................:
Commercial stocks .........:
Merchant mill stocks ]/....:
Total ................. ..
".rd red winter:
Fn-rm sto-'cs combined with :
interior mill &'elevator :
stocks .......... ..... .:
Commercial stocks .........:
Merchant mill stocks ......:
Tctal ................. :
Soft red winter:
Farm stocks combined with :
interior mill & elevator
stocks *..................
Commercial stocks .........
Merchant mill stocks ......:
Total ..................:
Hard red --rif :
Farm stocks combined with :
interior mill & elevator :
stocks ....... ....... ....:
Commercial stocks .........:
Merchrnt mill stocks ......:
Total ................. .:
2arum:
Farm stocks combined with
interior mill .- elevator :
stocks ............ .... :
Commercial stocks .........:
Merch-nt mill stocks ......:
Total .................:
White:
Farm sto-k!- combined with :
interior mill & elevator :
"toc ........... .... ..:
Commercial stocks .........:
Merchant mill stocks ......:
Total ..................:
I/ Bureau of C-:nsus fiuir-s ra
stocks, inclu.linr stored for o


Million Million "lollion
"usheels q'.I *" ..hels


2 L3
77
10r


207
10
103


323
95
115


.1 lion,


107
107


129 372 533 65




63 62 110
27 31 52 68
57 671 65
147 153_ 233 279



68 55 86 37
16 12 25
17 16 20 13
101 83, 131 120



57 34 51 95
27 12 10 32
27 19 a1 19
111 65 75 146




15 8 15 25
2 1 4 4
219 1. 5
I_9 1o 23 314


:U r 61 67
5 6 4 5
6 7 6 5
r11 T7
ised to r. present ll "- r' :nt mill :r- elov.-tor
others.


~ ~f_









-. le 13.- Est.-.rted production of wheat in the United States, by classes, 1919-38


Spring


..1- .It~


1, ''30


330,828
320,937
323, 46-
298,935
C~', 817
352,362
204,171
371,178
322,322
394,110
371,076
403,609
514,035
280,450
176,997
207,860
203,232
259,775
373,371
387,610


-rd : Soft : Hard
Red : Red : Red


Spring


1,000
bushels


Winter

1,000
bushel s

60,707
52,641
56,947
51,092
59, 234
35,274
33,486
44, 720
59,274
57,563
50,763
50,304
49,355
52,131
37,208
41,501
.57,831
52,689
54,615
62,227


Total

C ,r, )0(
bush&l s


83,1 :

70,902o
S:., 751
48, 550
75,410
76, 724
98,043
91,059
85,003
86,269
71,095
85,072
8g, 08g
69,761
-86,122
100,003
i14,145
102,941


To tal

1,( 00
1 ^*-.els

952,097
-43,277
818,064
846,649
759,'- .2
g41,617
668,700
832,213
875,059
914,373
823,217
886,470
941,674
756,927
551,683
526,393
626, 3?
626,766
875,676
930,801


1, 0O
bushel

33,090
47,6f7
57,854
85,571
42,373
61,543
60,377
45,320
81, 423
99,008
57,117
59,522
22,099
42,252
17, 816
6,891
24,759
8,836
28,929
42,010


1, '00
l -..C l O


1,000
S l. .-. s7


1919
10 )
rl-q i
19 2

1924
19:5
1926
1927
19' "
1929
1 930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938


29,2 C4
30,865
26,730
19, 810
29, 517
13,276
41,924
32,004
38,769
33,496
34,240
35,965
21,740
32,941
50,880
28,260
28,-291
47,314
59,530
40,714


356,925
239,649
222,381
221,432
237,248
185.927
162,962
215,709
166,592
127,393
164,400
179,692
262,006
159,214
-162,313
188, 602
204,256
207,410
257,838
236,800


141,263
151,518
131,587
169,809
132,293
193,235
165,780
123,282
206,679
202,803
145,621
157,378
72,439
189,939
106,469
53,279
107,975
50,742
101,393
161, 44o


:







- 24 -


T-'-le 14.- ^ t:' Fr.-duction "i' farm di.-,- sition, .'.: t St.- .t ,
I'--'?-37


: i for s d r


:Gr.und at :
: mills fcr: Sold or for


:Production
:*


grown I/


:livetcck : home use or.
' / : c : x'
S":.for flour :


1, OC C
bushelss

683,927
625,476
618,166
730,011
751,101
897,487
1,008,637
634,572
619,790
904,130
952,097
g843,277
818,964
846,649
759,482
841,617
668,700
832,215
875,059
914,373
823,217
886,470
941,674
756,927
551,6833
526,393
626,344
626,766
873,993


bushe ls


73,129
75,170
72, 696
75, 796
s0,972
79,559
79,042
s6,719
97,372
?9,914
88, 500
??,215
85,55'"
74,111
79,895
78,828
83,264
89,864
83,663
83,353
80o,886
.To, 049
83,513
77, 2
82, 585
87,555
96, 72
96,049


1, C00.O


65, 456
6., 336
70,393
68, 659
72,001
77,"4-
77,267
74,902
72,740
89,0814
85,645
85,015
s4, 859
82,138
72,254.
75,312
73,513
78,858
84,197
79,675
0o,737
77,878
73,411
79,565
6 ,132
66, 40
75,320
72,036
83,624


1,000
bu ..,. ".*-

21,037
22,778
35,267
23,687
36,244
27,633
28,755
38,220
31,152
36, 86?
36,863
20,649
32,9?4
48,969
69,670
55,727
28,214
34,261
44,507
56,566
58,769
157,188
173,991
124,912
72,261
83, 700
83, 16.
S,272
112,711


1, O03


10,07
10,457
12,103
10,221
11,935
10,757
11,318
12,1 :'
11,918
13,022
11,614
11,325
10,996
11,116
10,906
10,268
10,691
10,791
9, L:)
7,682
6, 68
10,131
15,090
16,073
16,t .:
15, 47
15,870
13, '14
13,183


1,



S523 .: L"
-,3
6a7, 2
630, 21

"'., 297
509,2-
503,971
765,155
817,975
-'6,2r?
6r ,125
70 4, )L26
606,6
700,310

70s,303
736,935
770,450
677,025
641,273
679, 1
53-,377
395,006
36o,? ?'
451,
4L',C- 4
6C, .475


Year
b .i nni n
July


S~:. tali


1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937


1/ Relates to v',intities u,-,i by prca.ucers on their own farms. Additional
qu;ntities o': puirc.hn-.: i wheat are so utiliz--i.


_ ~I~


: -imp








S-2 24 -



Table 15.- M.-nthly sales of wheat and r:y by farmers, United States,
average 197?-35 and arnuplly 1926-37


Percen-tae of total sales during


July: A'...Sert.. Oct.. Nov..


: Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
: cent cent cent cent cr:nt


Wheat:
Av.1926-
35 : 5.0


1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937


1.7
2.7
1.4
5.2
4.4
6.2
4.9
9.3
11.9
2.5
5.8
9.1


Dec.. Jan.. Feb.. MKr..


Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
cent cent cent cent cent


I :
Apr.. May .June

Per- Per- Per-
cent cent cent


8.7 5.4 4.6 3.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.3 2.3


22.2
15.1
18.8
25.6
26.0
26.9
18.5
21.9
30.4
19.2
35.4
30.2


20.8
18.0
i1g.O
18.4
22.2
20.2
18.5
19.3
19.8
15.3
25.8
15.8
16.3


13.5
19.8
17.3
14.0
11.9
10.0
14.0
13.3
9.4
17.7
8.7
10.4


9.5
12.6
12.0
s.6
6.9
7.9
7.9
7.0
5.2
9.7
6.8
6.0


5.9
7.8
7.2
4.4
4.4
4.6
5.5
5.0
4.2
4.5
4.3
3.8


5.1
5.3
5.4
4.5
4.7
4.5
4.8
*7
4.4
3.8
5.6
4.0


4.6
4.5
4.2

3.9
1.7
3-9
3.6
3.7
2.9
3.7
3.1
3.8


4.7
4.0
4.2
2.9
4.8
5.5
3.5
3.4
3.5
2.5
3.4
3.9


3.7
3.7
3.5
2.5
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.5
-2.9
3.4
3.8
3.3


2.7
2.5
2.8
2.41
3.2
3.4
4.4
2.7
4.4
2.6
2.7
3.9


3.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
4.0
3.8
5.4
3.1
3.5
2.2
2.9
3.3


2.2
1.3
2.1
1.6
1.3
1.4
4.7
3.6
2.0
2.4
1.7
2.0


Av.1926-
35 : 0.1


1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937


0
0
0
0
0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1


10.6 23.1 19.8 12.4


7.0
3.7
3.7
10.6
12.3
11.7
7.7
21.1
22.0
5.9
18.6
16.6


19Q.1
19.1
18.2
32.6
32.3
21.5
17.8
23.3
27.5
19.4

32.7


20.5
27.4
28.7
20.4
22.3
15.1
13.4
14.6
16.9
s1.4
14.3
16.9


14.0
17.0
17.7
12.6
11.5
10.7
8.9
9.8
g.g
8.8
13.5
10.0
8.8


7.7 5-3 4.2 3.7 3.7 2.9 3.2 3-3


9.8
9.9
10.2
7.4
4.8
s.4
6.4
7.1
5.1
7.6
6.5
5.2


6.4
5.4
6.0
5.6
4.3
6.5
4.9
4. 6
4.2
5.5
7.4
4.2


5.4
4.5
4.2
3.2
2.6
5.9
4.6
3.9
2.7
4.8
4.1
3.5


5.6
4.1
3.3
2.0
2.7
5.4
j.6
3.7
2.4'
4.3
4.7
3.6


3.5
3.6
2.9
1.6
1.9
5.2
4.7
3.9
2.8
6.9
4.5
3.1


2.5
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.9
3.8
6.3
2.7
2.4
4.5
3.9
1.7


2.8
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.8
3.2
8.9
2.6
2.7
5.0
3.6
1.9


3.4
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.6
2.5
12.7
2.6
2.3
4.1
2.0
1.7


Season:
'b -inr.
ning .June .
June


-2.5 19. 14.1l










T.Il-le 16.- W'--at: Wrld supply, distzppD-irance, rnr prices, 19 -


SProduction 2/ :3ritir?
Year S ocks. t .'tal -t Prcs,
beginning -S':out United Cna :Europe, All World exports c r y averre
: Argen-: ex- ohr: from : ./ :Pe ar-
July :July l States: tina & other S : .r : ce
:I/ ina & lauding: U.S.S.r ance r
: : Austra-U.S.S.R, : : : : I <-'
S: lia : /
Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
:bush. bush. bush. bush. bush. bush. bush. 'r u:,.. r.. C nt

1922 : 647 847 705 1,050 616 3,218 1 3,866 3, '.9 ?
1923 : 577 759 847 1,263 666 3,535 21 4,133 3,41O 84
1924 : 723 842 619 1,064 618 3,143 -- 3,866 3,293 110
1925 : 573 669 701 1,4o4 622 3,396 27 3,996 3,343 10?
1926 : 653 832 798 1,215 659 3,504 49 4,206 3-,519 108
1927 : 687 875 880 1,275 653 3,683 5 4,375 3,6:4 1o4
1928 : 751 914 1,076 1,409 606 4,005 -- 4,756 3,736 91
1929 : 1,020 823 595 1,449 715 3,582 7 4,609 3,666 101
1930 : 943 886 867 1,360 781 3,894 112 4,949 5,903 75
1931 : 1,046 942 732 1,436 767 3,877 70 4,993 3,950 76
1932 : 1,043 757 898 1,490 731 3,876 17 4,936 3,792 78
1933 :1,144 552 745 1,746 s05 3,848 34 5,026 3,833 70
1934 : 1,193 526 650 1,548 837 3,561 2 4,756 3,804 79
1935 : 952 626 568 1,576 832 3,602 29 4,583 3,817 s4
1936 : 766 627 620 1,481 850 3,578 4 4,348 3,809 105
1937 : 539 876 553 1,541 885 3,855 39 4,433 3,818 105
1938 5/: 615 931 815 1,828 961 4,535 --




1/ Excludes U.S.S.R. and China.
/ Year of harvest. Harvests of the Northern Hemisphere countries are combined
with those of the Southern Hemisphere which immediately follow; thus the crop
harvested in the Northern Hemisphere countries in 1938 is combined with the
Southern Hemisphere harvest which begins late in 1938 and ends early in 1939.
V/ Excludes production and stocks in U.S.S.R. and China but includes net exports
from U.S.S.R.
/ Deflated by Statist Index (1910-14 = 100) and converted at par.
/ reliminary.


":S -"'8






TI:le 17.- Exports of wheat, including flour, from the United States, by countries of destination
1909-1938
Year -) Tota :euGer-.l -i: C .. ;:Phil ip-:
Year be Tota: : Ger- : Nether united Other .Total i. Other
-lr.:incl: rts Fr-nce man, :Greece: Italy: lands1ind nuro eruroe n countries
July I: -in .


1909
1910
1311
l?n
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923

1925
-1926
1927
192~
1929
1930
1931
1?32
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937


--I,


Mil.bu. Mil. bu.


:Mil .-u.Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil_.bu.Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil.bu.: il.Iu.Mi 1 .bl.M.II. b-u.Mil .bu.

o 1 6 4 2 6 37 11 63 11 4
71 4 2 4/ 5 24 6 4 9 10
: 82 4/ 2 1 7 27 8 -45 11 15
: 145 5 13 7 19 43 18 105 11 15
: 48 6 12 2 24 41 22 107 11 15
336 60 3 10 4g 4o 85 37 283 14 4
: 246 35 0 14 36 22 68 30 205 20 2
206 23 0 7 18 22 82 27 179 14 4
:133 26 0 4/ 22 4/ 60 15 123 6
S27 31 0 1 43 9 115 51 250 7
: 222 40 2 1 39 1 62 42 187 12 1
:369 24 '35 7 59 27 103 66 321 17 2
283 6 29 4/ 36 24 64 42 201 15 23
225 15 13 2 34 17 37 2 146 12 20
: 16o 2 9 2 9 13 24 11 70 14 44
: 261 14 17 8 26 25 50 30 170 14 8
108 1 3 2 3 7 20 13 49 15 11
:219 16 11 6 10 25 47 25 140 20 14
: 206 5 8 3 11 19 42 25 113 17 15
:164 2 3 4 5 10 20 20 64 21 18
S153 2" 7 7 1 11 31 20 79 21 20
: 131 3 3 4 13 24 18 73 17 16
: 136 6 4 11 2 10 19 16 68 23 28
41 1 1 3 1 1 2 6 14 15 3
S 37 4 4/ 4/ 1 5 6 7 16
: 22 4 4 / 1 3 4 7 3
: 16 /. ... 1 ..... ........ 7 .
22 3 2 5 8
S107 11 1 i1 ? 30 7' 12 2


I! Includes flour milled from Can&dian wheat.
2/ Includes Mexico, Panama, Cuba, Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Venezuela for all years, and Haiti and
Colom:li- from 1931 to 1938. 3J Includes Hong Kong, Kwantung, and Chosen. 4/Less than 500,000 bushels.
Source: Bureau of Agricultaral Economics, United States Department of A-riculture.


1
1 .
1


2
2
1
1



2



.3
1
2
2

3
3
3
3
3
4

3*
3

3
2
2
.1
2
3


10
10
10
12
l4'
34:
17;
- 13
14
30o
22
28
42
45
29
66
30
42
58
57
30
22
14
-6
6
6
., .6
7
17


' ^


.J


-L


./-


.41


~-/


















SJuly-
: *- c. :


Jan.-
June :


July- :
Dec. :


Jan.- :
June :


July- : Jnn.- ': J-ly-
Dec. : June L/:. I/


: 1, 0: 0u
: "ushIl,


F el iim .........
-IenmP rk ......... :
France ..........:
GermrTy .......... :
Greece ..........:
Ireland ..........:
Italy ...........:
Netherlands .....:
iorw- ..........:
United Kingic- ..:
Other ZEjr'pe ....:


1, l 0 :
"~-'hels

11 :

31 :


1, C, -,,


19

35


1,C 0 :
bushels


19

6


: 399
: 204
: 336


3
s6


: 197
0 : 11


1,'Y"r 0


1 : 6,059
S 144
5 : 523
: 669
622
: 3,76
9 : 410
, : 6,240
S 149
2 : 5,794
2 : 51


25,027


1,000 : 1,0o


6,4' : 6, 4
1,580 : 236
342 : 579
644 : 1,6o2
1,851 : 302
8,139.: 2,731
743 : F
5,122 : 9,415
466 : 205
16,151 : 10o,85
2,133 : 205


32,802


Canada ..........:
Mexico .......... :
P anama ...........
Salvador ........:
Brazil ..........:
Colombia ........a
Peru ..... ...... :
J:pan ......... .:
Other countries .:

Total exports ...:


13 20 : 34 180 : 5,425 3,949 : 2,018
4 24 : 8 1 : 995 2,275 : 3
: 252 : 25 1 : 2
61 37: 70 69: 114 66 :3
:: 3 _2 :
2/ 2/: 56 193: 1(9
: 5S7: 55
: 133 : 42
28 23 : 35 18 : 525 185 : SL-


146 : 1,733


1,436 : 33,413


1/ Preliminary.
2/ Less than [00 bushels.
Compiled from official records of the rlureau -if Fcreign and Domestic Commerce.


Country


Talle 18.- United Stlte0 iome- tic e-ncrtT of wheat ry srecified cor.mtries,
s emi-arnnual1y oe;i .ir.t- J y 1 ,"5


1'-7;


43,6-? :


T7tal ure ....: 59 42 : 1,201 1,167 :







.2 CC


Cor'o .ity
country
country


Wheat flour j2
Netherlands ......:
Nor'. ..r ...........:
United Kin-,m ...:
Costa Rica .......:
Guat-r. Qla ........:
Nicar ,-.ua ........:
Panama ...........
Salvador .........:
Mexico ........... :
Cuba ............. :
Haiti, Republic of:
Ecuedor ..........:
Venezuela ........:
China ............:
Hong Kong ........:
Philippine I.-l-ndis:
Other countries ..:


1935-36


July- :
Dec.


1,000
barrels

9

28
7
314
22
26
6
6
95
7
6
4
3
20
124
32


: 1936-37


Jan.- :
June :


1,000
barrels

8
2
16
8
25
18
28
12
3
83
5
8
3
3
18
126
34


July-:
Dec. :


1,000
barrels

53
0
24
7
21
15
28
7
4
80
9
25
3
3
14
238
47


Jan.-
June


1,000
1,000


1,000
barrels

o106
3I
21
14
33
18
24
11
8
102
11
26
4
10
20
233
79


720 1,551 1,922 1,779


I/ Preliminary.
STo convert to wheat
SLess than 500.


equivalent multiply by 4.7.


28 -






;-:ble 19.- United States e:xoorts of wheat flour, made wholly from
United Stptes wheat, to specified countries, semi-annually,
't.-innir.- July 1935


1937-38


1938


Jan.- :
June :


July- :
Dec. :


1,000
barrels


24
70
22
53
15
39
15
13
208
18
65
32
8
184
294
233


1,000
btrrreel

240
40
123
41
44
10
40
11
3
303
22
60
66
81
98
429
311-


July-
Dec. I/
1,000
tbrrels

201
20
52
29
.49
20
44
11
2
241
21
42
45
144
.131
450
277


L29


400


578


____


Trtal ,......:






'1S-: 9


Table ".- Movrment of rwh"t, including.,' "Mitr, fr. ri r lncir al eprtin;-
cun .ties, 193-,-3" to 193'-73


Country -tl : Ji'/: 1 ftc Ati, : r : -,rt
: ." ,- :


United States I/
C--, n-, 1-. ........:
Argentina .....:
Au stralia ......:
Soviet Union ..:
Hun.-Tv r;: ........
YuIe, slavia ....:
Eium -nia .......:
Bulg ria ......:
British India .:
Total ......


15,9r i ,

76,577 1. 2,977
1' ,13- Z 9 7 37
' r,704 4, 4,-
14, 64 2 7,428
728 17,954
6,392 36, 4
988 7,273
2,556 16,571
490,293 606,298


107, .-4

65,670
1'3.343
43,354
9,368
5,012
32,962
8,484
19,677
513, :-


10, 7-1
171, 11
37,096
25, 70F

16,984
9, 190
19,307
3,622
2,452


45,11

21,7 ~
27,-
9,9 69

4, 1'L
I,--
20, ^-,
3,97C
7,645


7, '1

22,

S 3, l 7

S 178:
5 9, 94:


D,,c. 7
Jnn. 31
Dec. 31
1.
Sept. 30
.--c. 31
". -v.
Kov. )
.ocv. 30
Sr-t. 30


: Sj.i'n ;l.nts is p iven "': tr'-o '.':--" e
': t.. 1. _'e l endel 1--'' : : ?- 11
I July .... M
:19< -7 :1177-"3 : Jan.-. :'bt. 4 :F -. 11 :137-'? : 17-7_
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1000 1000
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 I,_ .",


bu??h01.P S


b-i,5hCl s


North America 2
Canada / ......
United States /
Argentina .....:
Australia .....:
Soviet Union ..:
L-'anube and


231, 832
213,028
10,395
164,678
105,836
88


184,720
94,546
83,651
66,928
127,520
42,248


Pulg.aria 6/...: 05, 544 37,320
Britih, Ipia/. :/16,571 1/19,677


2,234
3,929
2,112
2,804
280

1,240
0


6,4?4
3,318
2,340
3,769
1,983
112

1,496
0


5,476
-- 94/
3,676
2,149
3,609
224


1,584
0


117, ?L+
70, 430
48,010
32,528
- ',132
33,912

"',024
10,9':)


152,136
/111, '-?0
53,425
L),598
Lj, rzgg
Ci^3.
7^4c;


Total European :
shipments 2/..:


Total ex-Euro-
pean shipments 127,192


99,400


2,368


I/ Includes flr'ir milled in bond from foreign wheat.
2 7rrn-r..hll's Corn -Tr -.ie .'ws.
3/ Official exports as reported to 'ate, supplemented "y reported: we9':l7
clarances of wheat, arn estimates of flour ship.r.mnts.
l! Tr.-u. Febr'nr:,' 4 only.
Official r:--rts received from 16 principal ports only.
Slack S&a .'.ir-.r.ts only.
/ Official.
9 Ttal rf trade firir--s incl i-.s ':rth Americ an rer'-rtel by -rrL r hall's but
ioes not include itc-r'., 2 ir.l 3.
2/ TP J.rrar' 23.


--


;h ;, 4 U I ______7 .' -- :
"' 70 1 1I- ,"'-


:uIhl s u--- s


". u--'.-.1;


"u h.el bu-r.el s


33,3"
6,280


4/ 51,r'-~ ~j 65,9;-'






- 30 -


Table 21.-- rorts of heatet and wheat flour from the United States,
1937-35 and 1938-39

(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)

: -Th a.t Wheat flour : ','at in-luding


. 1_ 1 7-3l_ : 138-39
: 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels


S1937-3-8
1,000
barrels


8 flour
I .93359- _lS3-3j : lSa-39
1,000 1,000 1,000
barrels bushels bushels


July-. c. .......
">eek ended / -:
Jan. 7 ......
14 ......:
21 ......
28 ...... :
Feb. 4 ......
11 ......


33,410

1,5?8

1,796
1,2o9
1,347
2,047


36,654

602
1,934
2,155
2,s53
2,13&
2/3 ,103


2, 490

84
51
45
25
65
39


2,712 45,113


123
49
76
41
229
2/ 43


1,983
2,142
2,00
1,3 '7
1,653
2,230


49,40oo

832
2,291
2,34
3,929
2,340
2/3,676


Compiled from reports of the Department of Commerce.
1/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not available.
These data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ Preliminary.




Table 22.-Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1937-38 and 193S-39



Period : Argentina Australia Danube North America
-_ :2.9 4 5 :,-" ... .: ,2 .-5 .,: .. ,' :i :1< -,--.."-_: i -3 ._ ,, _____,_

: ,0O 1,C"D 1,000 1,000 1,000 ,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


July-Dec. ....: 19,396


Week ended :
Jan. 7 ..... :
l4 ..... :
21 .....:
2? ..... :
Feb. 4 ..... :
I L ..... :
1. .....:


1,052

2,13
3,O15
2,220
3,- /7


2S,01


2, ( -
2,264
2,112
3,7 9
2,275
3,275


33,452 41,964 24,824 23,480 95,176 121,192


812
3,592
2,46o
3, 1 w
2,17
3,46o
3,444


1l6
2,10r'
2,028
2,304
1,993
3,609
2,911


368
285
264
856
920
504
504


552
1,912

1 ,24

1,584
9 :


ComrlT.ni from Broori.,ll's Corn r-f-de News.


:S-2 =


Period


3,568
4,096
3,832
3,608
3,704
3,- 4
4,352


4,008
4,776
4,704
5,'"6
6,484
5,476
3,.79








- 31 -


I h 3.- :'t in-rrts of 1.'heat, inclu'ir. flour, into .':'. an
countries ye, r beginnir..c July 1, I.7 L 19


Count:- : :. : 17- -'..: 1
________ : forecastt I/: to 1 ; 193-%


Belgium........... :
Cze hoslovakia ...
S3rjr'.-"k .......... :
Fir.la .nd ........ .. :
Fr .-. -e ........... :
Ger anr.y .......... :
Austria .......... :
Greene ...........
Ireland ..........
Italy ............
Latvia ...........
.etherlands ......
..orway ...........
Poland ...........
Portugal .........
Sweden ...........
Switzerlar. ...... :
United Kingdom ...

Total imports of
above .......


Spain ............


Total imports ..
Total exports
Total net imports:


IU. li on
bushels

36
2_/ 1
6
3
16
) 54
)
16
14
5
1
24
7
0
1
2/- 1
14
193


million n
bushels

39
2
7
3
2
45

15
14
'18
0
24
8
2/- 4
3
0
17
217


Nov.
Aug.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
Nov.
Sert
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.


30
31
31
31
30
31
30
S30
31
30
30
31
31
31
30

31
31
51


: million
: bushels

: 19
2/- 1
3
1
6
26
3
S 4
8
5
3/
12
: 3

53/

4/'
7
98


million n
': .sh ls

19
1
3
2
5
27
3
4
9
5

15
4
2/-1
3
1
10
107


390 414 195 219


3 15


393
2
391


429
4
4. 5


1
194


1
217


1/ Forecasts by European offices of U. S. D'rar:'tment of Agriculture,
2 Net exports.
5/ Less than 500,000 bushels.
/ Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.


Corr.ille1 from official sources except as otherwise stated.


WS-28





WS-28


List of chl-nies and additions in tables accompanying wheat charts in
The Theat Situation for August 25, 1933, and in Agricultural
Outlook Charts 1939

(Items underlined represent revisions and additions since the
changes published in The Wheat Situation for November
1938, pages 16-17)

Page in -
AuC.
Wheat :Chart
Situ- :Book
action :


4-5


1-2


In this issue, table 9.


3 1937
1938

4 1937
1938

5 1937
1938


81,072
79,870

57,636
56,35-5

23,416
232515


10.8 875.676
11.7 930,801

11.9 635,824
12.2 686,637

8.1 189,852
1,jL tGA


6 1937 34*861 20o603 168066
1938 35,072 22,191 14,674
Footnote: Change Ala# to Okla.


7 VWith
1937
1938
*:,i th
1937
1938

8 1937
1938


new wheat in commercial and merchant mill stocks
57 373 30 (61) 7A 279 77 110.8
77 388 A6
only old wheat in all stocks positions
37 27 410 (61) ZL 276 60 110.8
60 3 3 48


10 114
20 103


1A (14) 22
121


82 20


9 With new wheat in commercial and merchant mill stocks
193715 1 8 2l (4) 5 228 40 1 -12.
1938 40 27 277
With only old wheat in all stocks positions
1938 37 237 274


10 1937
1938

11 1938


18 102
31 161


--- 120
-=-- 192


5 I-


Continued -


5,132
4.570


- 32 -


---










';.e" .... Ji action ;z r IJ ; :U.t 3 1' ^, J. c j .:
Outlook 2harLs 1_ ont in.-. d

;...crli,;edr r:,n'eo;';.t revision" ; yid .di..:. i ^:. r c.ine *h.-.
S- cj 'xu lishod in ,e ~. .:i *3"'..>.,t ion for 2 ov1,br:r
19 0, a jes l- 17)


1 7 191,0 -
1928 141,129
1929 140, .- 1
1930 112,074
1933 2:1- 445
1934 /-3,538
1935 2/-30,410
196 2J/-25,188
1937/ 99,428


at u :
action :

9 I


557, 47
746,325

5. .0

463,661l
41 ,040

231 ,51


3,3

3.
3, 5"':

3,?C
3.?32
3,5 -

3,Z
3,531

3, 2
3,572
3,, 5
q ? ("[.


245
0
7-7

25


270
273
265






' .2
7 .7
l.1
27,






77.7
77.1
76.9


15.o
13.7
14.3

1 *.7
15.1
13. 0


1 .4
1l.1




15.8
12. 3


13.
50.3
55.4

60.9

15.8
- .7
--*

19.9
.0
23.


1923
1-
19

1 ,7
19 32
1929
1939
1931

1932
1933

1937



192:
1935


1937
1924



1929
t933
19:4
1937
:-- 3


1,0o63.5
1,45c.3-
1,742.3
1,5' .
1 *7.9


3 .




I,
,3 i,1


Y5,,17
_ _.2 ^ _


:0.7
-20.9
21.1
22.1


58.3
57.4
"- ,
---o


91.6
96.0





- 34 -


-list of cl anes and additions in tables accompanying wheat charts in
T;.e .'eat Situation for August 25, 1933, and in Agricultural
Outlook Charts 1939 Continued -

(Items underlined represent revisions and additions since the
ch.g ;es published in The ",:.eat Situation for :!ove..ber
1938, pages 16-17)

Page in-

W'heat : C. .t
Situ- : 0ook
ation :


131
255
93
206
191
141
140
25
2/-30
2/-25
99


1,284
1,064
1,431
1,264
1,280
1,4c9
1,449
1,760
1,605

1,580
1, 865


155
(155) 36


51 37 457
60 49 394


In this issue, table 16.


1938-39 Aug. 84.7
Sept. 79.0
Oct. 73.4
Nov. 66.5
Dec. 59.9
Jan. 61.8
1936 25,100
1937 99,435


65.5
65.7
64.7
63.3
66.9
70.9
102,083
173,o10c


Kansas City No. 2 Hard 'inter
1938 70.0 65.5 65.7
St. Louis No. 2 Red :!inter
1938 68.9 65.6 67.1


64.7 63.3 66.9 70.9

68.5 65.8 69.8 73.4


Kansas City 1o 2 Hard Winter same as above
Seattle IJo. 1 White Club
1938 67.8 61.2 62.7 63.2 63.3 1/64.9 67.6
/ Quoted as "'o.1 Western *"';ite" July-T 1928-August
12, 1934, and December 12, 1933 to end of table.

Kansas City No. 2 Hard W:inter same as above
.inneapolis Ho. 1 Dark Northern Spring
1933 87.6 77.5 76.2 73.3 73.1 77.3 79.7
Continued -


1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1933
1935
1936
1937
1938 3/


1936
1938


612
652
520
604
655
696
476
402
360
4835
398


142
174


19.2
13.3
3.7
3.2
- 7.0
- 9.1










li.:t of c :....-es and .1 litions in tables cb.' I 'l- wi:eat ':. rts i.
S" .'at Situation for '.--:ust 25, 193C, .n:.t in .. 'ric l t ral
outlook Chitrts 19,? Continued -

(Items underlined re resent revisions J.:' ad itions since the
.:C, -os .urliShed irn T'0o .L .: t Jitu tion for : vea:bcr
19-;, es 16-17)


-I-
Lt : Chart
Situ- : Dook
ation

26 .:inncr:olis 1jo, 2 Hard Amber L'.irum
1938 79.0 73.1 68.9 65.5 64.9 70.1 72.7

35 28 1937 3 846 13.0 49,830 6,573 68.6
1938 3 79 13.8 5 ,039

List of cholnges in icThe 'hoat Situation, January 24, 1939, table following
pa c 12.

:a-:o 13, last line, fourth item: Chlixre from 704,022 to 648,322.
Paj- 15, upper total, fifth item: Change from 760,31-3 to 761,343.
Page 16, sixth country (C .:a..Ua), first item: Change from 226,277 to 266,277.


CCr.TE! ?L
P.l.-

o -r ..ry .. ............... ...... .. .... .. ........ 3
The World '..,---t Cituation .................... ....................... 3
world d wheat supplies and trade ................. ................. 4 6
Acre- e and condition of fall-s Wheat prices in foreign markets ..................... ..........
r1.e Domestic ": t Situation ............... ..,,9 .............. ,,. 9
'..at supply and disappearance in the ';. Cited ."t- tes .............. 2 -11
Wheat prices in domestic markets ............... ........ ........ 1-13
- rm !n.one fr m 'u. t ...* .*****............... .......... ... 13
Income from wheaut crois fluctuates over wide range ............ 14
-ctors affect!r., prices, income .............. ... ............... 14
crld war and largu sz..;ilies wy re important price factors ........ 15

FI :'.i

1. .*t -..t: Cash and Gross F-.r Income, United States, 191 -S8 ......... 1
2. Theat: '1.es, r.ce, and cash income, United States, 1910-3p ...... 1


( C ontinued)





UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
I II 11P 1111i [I II 11 hI I I 111i i I1
3 1262 08861 8276
3-23- 36 -
( Co.t ents-C ont inued) Page
TAPLcS

1. Estimated world supply and prospective distribution, .'-: r beginning
uly 1, 1958, cor:pared with 1937 ................................ 4
2. i;.t-at surplus for export or carry-ever in three exporting countries,
United Kingdom port stocks and stocks afloat,February 1,1936-39... 5
3. .`iirter wheat area s ,wn in specific countries for harvest in 1937,
1J38 arnd 1939 ........ ....... ....... .... ........ ... ........ 7
4. Prices :' imported wheat at Liverpool ....................... .... 8
5. ir.im tes of wheat stocks,July 1, July-December imports and exports,
January 1 stock-, and July-Decembcr disappearance, United States,
1935-38 ....................................... ................... 10
6. Avr. -. closing prices of May wheat futures, specified markets and
dates, 1937-38 and 1938-39 ........................... .... ...... 12
7. Weighted av;er ..e cash price cf wheat, specified markets and dates,
1937-38 and 1936-39 ........................ ......... ....... ... .... 13
8. .'.'.t sales, home consumption, cash income and gross income, 1910-37. 17
9. ::-eat supply, distribution, and disAppeaLrance, United States,1923-38. 18
10. Estimated wheat supply and distribution by classes, average 1929-33,
annually years beginning July 1, 1934-38 ....................... 19
11. Wheat stocks in the United States, January 1, 1935 to 1939 .......... 20
12. Estimates of stocks of wheat by classes, United States, January 1,
1936-39 ...................... .. ....... ..... ............ ..... 21
13. Estimated production of wheat in the United States, t; classes,1919-38 22
14. Production and farm disposition of wheat,United States, 1909-37 ..... 23
15. .:"nthly sales cf wheat and rye by farmers, United States, average
1926-35 and annually 1926-37 ....... .......... ....... .... ......... 24
16. worldd wheat supply, disappearance, and prices, 1922-38 .............. 25
17. .:-.orts of wheat including flour from the United Stutes, by
countries of destination, 1909-38 ................. ............. 26
18. United States domestic exports of wheat by specified countries,
semi-annually beginning July 1935................................. 27
19. United States experts of wheat flour, made wholly from domestic wheat,
to specified countries, semi-annually, beginning July 1935........ 28
20. I.ovement of wheat, including flour, from principal exnortiro- countries,
19; 5-36 to 1938-39 .......... ..... .. .... .... ... .... .... ........... 29
21. Exports of whe.t trd wheat flour from the United States, 1937-38 and
1938-39 ........................... ............................... 30
22. Shir,- .nts of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1937-38 and 1938-39 ........3........ 30
23. I'.t imports of wheat, including flour, into Europenn countries, yet;r
beginning July 1, 1037 and 1938 ................................ 31
24. List of c ges ard additions in tables acccr imyi... wheat charts
irn !e ?.eat Situation for A-: ust 25, 1938, and in Agricultural
tl ook Cehvrts 1 i ................ .. ...... ........... 32-35
25. List of rh-:ges in :.,- T"heat Situation, January 24, 1939, table
f CI lowing p g 12 ........... ...... ....... ..... ... .... ...... 35




Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID E8UPT8765_CD4158 INGEST_TIME 2013-02-14T16:06:37Z PACKAGE AA00012162_00041
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES