Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
Physical Description:
v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
Creator:
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
Publisher:
The Service
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C.
Frequency:
quarterly
regular

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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
Genre:
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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University of Florida
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All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
System ID:
AA00012162:00039

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UT' ITED S"T A-ES D'F ... T .. r ,'. .. "L E
Bureau of .'.r cultural E- nr.ics
.,S :.. .ton

WS-25 Novermber 27, 19 -.

THE W HEAT S I TUAT I ON


Sumrmary

World wheat production* this year, 1938-39, is new estimated "y the

Bureau :f Abricultural Ecoicmics at 4,386 million bushels. This is only about

20 million bushels more than the estimate of a month ago ?ut abcut 540 million

bushels more than the 1937-7-3 harvest. With world stocks on July 1 estimated

at 595 million bushels, about 75 million more than a year earlier, total sup-

plies are about 4,980 million bushels,or about. 615 million bushels more than a

year ago.

Whr.eat prices in importing countries declined during the past month,ap-

parently as a result cf heavy offerings and favorable Argentine crop prospects,

which more than offset poorer prospects in Australia. Wheat prices in United

States markets in general did not decline significantly, but showed irnepcndent

strength largely as a result of G-vernment purchases, dryness in the winter

wheat belt, and further improvement in domestic business coriitions.

Exports of United States wheat (including flour in terms of wheat)for

the July-Cctcber period are estimated at 31 million bushels, which o-r.r-re with

22 million bushels for the same 4 months in 19S7. world d shipments of wheat,

including flour, from July 1 to November 12 totaled 209 million bushels con-

pared with 1C.2 million bushels for the samc period last ,ear.

Under the terms of the reciprocal trade agreement with the United Kingdom,

signed November 17 and effective Janrury 1, 1:~'9, Emrpir- prefer-rnce was r.nm'v d

on wheat imports. This permits United States wheat to enter the United Kingdom

* All refer'..nc.-s to world and Northern HFeni rs.: re s-:i lies, production, and
disappearance exclude Soviet Russia ani Chin'a, but include net exports from
Soviet Russia.




-2-

duty free on the same basis as C-..r. -iian ard Austr ali:n wheat. ::ur-:.rous duty

reductions on United 3Stats whuet flour w-,re also obtained in a number of the

British rc::n Colionies and in ."fcundlr..d.

"-.tcbbr 1 stocks of ::heat in the United States arc estimated at E51 mil-

lion bushels c':-:.,red with 761 million bushels in 1937, and indicate a domestic

disapperancre of about 215 million bushels for the July-September period when

c-, .red with July 1 stocks. The disappearance for the same period a y,::r ago

was 123 million bushels.

The first official estimates of the acr.a.ge and condition of winter wheat

for harvest in 1939 will not be available until December 21. Private crop esti-

mates as of November 1, however, indicate a reduction in winter wheat acre;-,g.e of

about 19 percent. No information is yet available on the probable reduction in

spring wheat seedings. But, if the winter wheat acreage is reduced by 19 percent,

and if a similar reduction is made in the spring wheat actr ag, the seeded acres

would total about 66 million acres. "Tith average yields, such an acreage would

result in a crop of about 790 million bushels. A production of this size would

leave about 100 million bushels to be exported or added to the already large

carry-over.

THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROU1TD.- Total world supplies* increased sharply from l.24
to 1933, largely as a result of the increase in acreage. From
1933 to 1936 world supplies declined, following successive years
of small production and increased world demand. In l'-37 world
supplies were only moderately lar,-r than in 1936.

Durir- the 1924-33 period, when world supplies were in-
creasinr, world prices were declining, reacinrg the low point
as supplies reached the high point. From the spring of 1'33 to
the summer of 1937, world prices moved steadily upward, reflect-
i,: hi-} r world commodity price levels, four successive blew.,-
aver;:co harvests in North America, and the 1;35-36 short Southern
.i.-phore crop.
* '1 r- f r-..r.,- in this report to world and Northern Hemisphere supplies, pro-
duction and disappearance exclude Soviet Russia and China but include net expcrt-
froe Soviet F- sia.





7:S-' 3


- 3 -


Estirnate cf trtal world wheat r'oeducti n revised up-vrrd

W;rld .-rcduction of wheat in 1938-39 is now estimated at 4,3"- million
bushels. This is about 20 million bushel abcve the es ir .ae cf a .. nth c, ad
about -- m'illicn buses above t:e world d crcp in 197-"., 3J:pard revision ir.
estimates for Er-::-:an ccunr -s a.i in the forect .t for ..rnti::x :. r; than off-
set reductions in the estir.tes for C:nada and Austr lia. The ecti.n t '. rth-rn
Hemir: here total is n7,;w )1;c ut 3,903 niil3cn bush Is, or about 500 milli n
bushels above. that cf a r o. European cduct i r, exclud>i; Scritt Ria,
is estimated at 1,7^3 :illi- 'sh Is. 7 :s i:. an in : se of I miillion bushels
over tre Octct r stj:. t, is bout ?20 2 i.lio3i shei more than the --.rope
production in 1T37.


Th scd estir;t cf +r Iucticn in C'.n ,a pl -es The 19532 crop at
4,1 e, <0 bus.:zs, cr 10 ..ilic: bushAls less than the pr vicus cstimn.tc.
the C k, he spring wheat production estimate has been
.r -d by 11 million bu:r K !s.


In
1 ow-


r .rvesti-- is r -re- ira'- otively in t!e Nortbhern pert of Argentina, and
gocd yields r. expec ed th-'uxhc ut the country if weather conditions continue
f aver.ble until thj c :I the asn. Frosts havye boen reported in some sections
cf the country but dac.. and yield studies, the production is forecast at 270 million bushels.

In ".-str li< t'e lor r .riod of drought has resulted in reduced crop pros-
pects and the crop is nr.: forecast at 135 million bushels. Harvesting is in full
pro gre~ s :..i yiu]ds arc repucted to be poor in all sections except in New South
1oales. Yields there ore reported to be good.

Re-crd world -r-- indicates lar_-y July 1939 carry-over

'r. the basis of present supply estimates and a moderate increase in world
disappearance to 3,850 million bushels, the world wheat carry-over on July 1,1939,
is eyp-. -ted to be about 1,170 million bushels. A carry-cver of this size would I-
second nnly to the 1,1:3 million bushels in 1. '3. Table 1 shews the estimated
world carry-over, production, exports from Soviet Russia, and prospective y.,ar-
end stocks and disa~,,parance, based on present indications ccr.-~red with fi.-ur-s
for 1937-38.

Table 1.- Estimated wheat supply and prospective distribution,
world, year beginning July 1, 1938, compared with 1937

item : 1...-.:_ .-,. : .: ,. :,: 1

S millionn bushels Million bushels
Carry-over July 1 ...............: 1iJ .
Production ...................... 3, 843 4,3 -5
Total s-; ily ......... ......: 4, -* 4 -'
Net exports from Soviet Russia .,.: 39 / *.
cftal of abcve .............: 4"i,-- ,
Dis 'ppe'rance .................: 06 3, "
Carry-over June 30 ..............: :
1/ 3as IJ on -,rr r-: t .t in. cf: r.du' ti r, [r. I '. i ., .ni
Government policy.





-4-


Tablc 2.- r action of wheat in specified countries, 1935-36 to 1938-39


: 1935-36 : 1936-37


: 1937-38 : 1938-39


: 1,Co0 1,COO 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels bushels bushels

North America:


"-.ited States ............. :
Canada *..o..................:
Mexico .................. ...:
Total (3) *...... ........:
Zurope:
England and ';ales ...........:
Scotland *t ...... .......... ..* :
Northern Ireland ...........:
Ireland .. .............. ...:
INorway .................... ,
Sweden ......... ... .. .......:
Denmark .. ...... .......,..:
Netherlands .................:
Belgium *....... .......... .
France *. ... ....... .........:
S a ;fin ............ ........ :,
Luxremburg ............. .... :
Portu- :-.! .. .. .. .. :
Italy .......................:
Switzerland ............ .....:
Germany *...................:
Austria ....................:
Czechoslovakia ..,..........:
Greece ...... ....... .......:
Poland ... ............... .**:
Lithuania ...................:
Latvia ......... ..... ....:
-stonia ..... ...... .. ....
Finland ... ...... ... ..... ...:
Malta .......................:
Albania .....................:


626,344 626,766 873,993 940,229
281,935 219,218 182,410 348,100
10,712 13, 6 10,586 1/ 12,000
918,"'91 859,590 1,o66,939 1,300,329


6o0,59 2
4,480
362
6,686
1,669
23,610
14,672
16,653
16,11c
284,950
157,986
1,022
22,092
282,760
5,974
171,488
15,509
62,095
27,180
73.684
10,093
6,520
2,267
4, 233
179
1,554


51,445
3.547
273
7,839
2,094
21,635
11, 266
15,428
16,153
254,618
121,492
1,071
8,6.51
224,570
4,470
162,660
14,039
55.583
1i,537
78,357
8.027
5,272
2,433
5.259
236
1,106


52,0o05
4.181
164
6,990
2,497
25,720
13,522
12,555
15,550
257,838
132, C '-
1,206
14,403
296,28232
6,221
164,120
14,470
51,266
32,373.
70,774
8,109
6,302
2,786
7,665
326
1,636


66,453
3 8-3
2_/ 190
2/ 7,700
2,614
30,170
j/ 14,000
15,138
17,796
335,100
/102,900
1,775
i/ 158300
J/297,319
6,096
193,524
3/ 16,::o
65,7c 3
35,502
84,142
9,072
7,646
2,998
7,532
296
1/ 1,50o


Total ( 76) ...............: ,274,811 1,o9 ,C l 1, 1,s346,0 '4
il-rria ....................: 47,925 60,350 64,910 59,116
ur'. ,ry .....................: 84,224 87,739 72,153 94,990
Rumania .....................: 96,439 123,717 138,158 181,768
Y -osl.--.i ..................: 73,100 107,422 86,233 100,902
Total (4) .............. ...: I,6 -. ;4, '0 361,464 436,776
Total rope ('0) ........: 1,57-,4)9 1,401,339 1,62,-,5 1,9782,830


Continued -


Country





S-25 2


-10ie 2.- r: action of heatt in e. cified cou..tries, 1,3'- 1 to 1 -',
D:. tinued -


Country


: 1 *)3 : 193 "-31 : l ,'- 3 1 -_,


: 1,000
: ?' .,.hels


buihc bushols bu.0 I z
bushels bushels bushels


..' .. ..... ... .. J Con t 'd :
Afri ca:
A r .a o ..... .. ..., ,:

"or -:. t ............ ........ O :

Total (4) .. ..... ..-... :
Asia:


Pa:
Sy
In:
Jal
Chc
Tur


33,532 29,77, 33,lo3 C-,c66
20,036 12,2: 20,895 21,476
16,^2 8,C3 17,637 13,9;
43,222 45,700 45,376 45,933
113,6J 2 95,791 117,014 113,437


lestine ...........,.....: 3,834 2,795 4,682 L/ 4,0 C
ria and Lebanon .........: 15,520 15,704 17,227 1/ 18,0C
ia ......6 351,C0 3'4,075 402 453
n .. ....................: 48,710 45,192 50,410 45,244
)sen .....................: 9,747 8,095 10,242 10,333
-key .....................: 92,641 141,582 140,311 1K:,424
Total (6) ...............: 536,676 565,c4., 5 'c,47 64O,454
Total 43 countries ......: 3,145,858 3,001,763 3,3 3,375 3,837,050
Esti.iatcd N:orthern
Hemisphere total, ex-
cl'u:.. Russia and China: 3,225,000 3,067,000 3,399,000 3,?33,:30


Ar gentina .... .... .. ....... :
Australia ...................*:
Union of South Africa ........:


141,462
144,218
23,709


249,193
151,390
16,077


Estimated world total
e::clu" ."; .. zcia and
China ..................: 3,601,000 3,540,000


184,801
108,018
10,157


3,343, CO


6/ 270,0CC
1/ l35 ,C C
17,416


4,3 5, oc:


/ Approximation.
2/ Cstimate of the London office of the Bureau.
/ Estimate of the Berlin office of the Bureau.
/ Estimate of the Paris office of the Bureau.
/ The Paris office of the Bureau re ..r s this official estimate as bcir.- too
high.
6/ Based on weather conditions to date,
Compiled from official data except as otherwise noted.


- 5 -






United States exports 31 million buc.-: is; 22 milJ on a a__ o.

world C. '- ents for the year beginni.g July 1, 1933, are still
esti -.ted at about 550 million bushels, including ab:ut 440 million to Europea.n
importi::7 countries and about 110 million bushels to non-European
countries. This is an increr..s.- in total ship -:.ts of about 50 million lushels
over '.i;.zants in 1937-39.

worldd shipments of ':wheat, including flour in terms of wheat, fr)n
July 1 to November 12 totaled 209 million bush,'ls compared with 162 million
bushels for the sace period last year. ":3ekly .-h"mJ.nts by important exporting
countries, with comparisons, are shown in tab-e 9. Tables "'10 11 also
contain data on the current movement, and table. 8 shdws the surplus for e-ort
or carry-over in Canada, Argentina, *-.c Austr ,lia, together w::ith port stocks
and stocks afloat.

7World trade in :wheat has declined sharply since the peak year of 1928-29,
chiefly as the result of drastic restrictions in iLmports and i-cr. ed production
in the major im-orting countries. In the early part :f this period exports from
the United States declined with those from other surplus-produci.g c:untri*-s.
Durir..- the period 1934-36 small crops in the United States, the result of
abnormally lo'i: yields, were followed by net imports. In 1937 production in the
U:.ited States *..as again large, and about 100 million bushels were exported,
leaving about 70 million bushels to be added to the carry-over. Large-scale
exports in 1937-38 resulted from the small world stocks and suall crops in
Canada and Argentina. Prospects are not favorable for United States exports
this season (1938-39) because of increased production in other countries, but it
is -xpected tlh.t, by Government aid, exports may toto. 100 million bushels.
-xports of wheat, include n.flour made .wholly of United States wheat, for the
July-October period are estimrited at 31 million bushels, which compare with
22 Million bushels for the some 4 months in 1937.

Foreign wheat prices lower than a month a-o

".eoat prices in importing countries declined during the past -month,
apparently as a rest of heavy offerifus and favorable Arr-ontine crop prospects,
*.' ch :,ore than offout poorer prospects in Austr .11 U:'.ted States white wheat
in Live:rool (table 3) declined about the sane as the price f Australian
.'h-,t, ...ich is o.f similar quality. Hard wheat fro.-i Canada declined somewhat
less th.ni the white heats. No quotations for United States hard red winter
wheat have been received during the past month. United States hard yellow
wheat has sold at prices under the comparative values of hard red winter.
,.ble 3 chces cash prices of imported wheat at Liverpool and table 5 futures
prices at Liverpool, Winnipeg, and Buenos Airzc.

TU. -or the terrs of the reciprocal trade .-reement with the United
i:.:.'om signed November 17 and effective Janu-ry 1, 1939, the import duty on
non--. ire wheat has been r:.-. ved thereby enabling United States wheat to
enter the United 'li.,gdom on the sane basis as Co.'2:l.a an ad Australian wheat.
Ci: ::verber 1932, .. ire -.h :.t qualifying for Imperial ?reference was cx:- 'pt+ed
fr(o the payment (f the prevailing duty of appro:i:-.'tely 6 cents per bushel.
Nu-mrous i rI .c ic ns on United States wheat flour were also obtained in a
numb r 'f the British Crown Colonies and in Newfcundland.





W3- 5 7 -

T.'ble 3.- Prices f i r.:rted a.' t at Liverpool

HErd wheats Soft wheats
Date : U.S. : : Canada : Inia
(Friday): (Gulf) : Arren- : No. 3 : : U.S. : Austra- : choice
No. 2 : tine :Manitcba:Rus:i.an :(Pacific) lian : Karachi
Yellow :Barusso : : : White : 1/ 1
:Hd.Winter : : : : :
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cr. -s r.t-

Sept. 2 : ---
9 : --- 73.8 71.6 60.0 70.1 72.3 71.6
16 : .--- 79.5 59.7 75.0 78.8 ---
23 : --- 78.0 78.4 60.0 72.7 -7,.2 ---
30 : 1/ 73.8 --- 80.6 72.3 --- 90.4---
Oct. 7 : 6g.9 --- 73-8 59.9 71-9 79.4
14 : 69.6 --- 74.7 61.4 71.0 7u.7
21 : 64.7 --- 75-9 --- 72.2 76.3 ---
28 : --- 62.6 72.2 --- 70.0 72.2 --
Nov. 4 : 55.0 58.8 68.4 --- 67.7 68.4
10 : 55.6 61.6 69.7 --- 63.8 66.7
18 : --- ---. 2/72.1 -- 61.1 66.2 ---

N/ o. 2 Hard Winter.
21 Empire wheat qualifying for Imperial Preference is exempt from duty
(approximating 6 cents per bushel) under Ottawa Agreements of November 1932).

THE DOMESTIC *'HAT SITUATION

B6CKGROUTID.- The carry-over of wheat in the United States
for the 5 years 1924-28 averaged about 115 million
bushels. Stocks which began to accumulate in 1929 reached
the record peak of about 375 million bushels in 1933.
Four small wheat crops, however, re-iced stocks on a com-
parable basis to about 100 million bushels by July 1,1937.
Domestic disappearance during the 10 :,'years 1928-37 averaged
680 million bushels.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to
that of 1937 were unusually high in relation to world
market prices, because of four small domestic crops
caused larily by abnormally low yields per acre.During
1936-37 both world and domestic prices advanced sharply
as a result of increased iemani rnd the smallest supplies
in recent years.

Early in the 1937-38 season, domestic i nd foreign
wheat prices rose sharply following reports cf serious
id.amne to the C--*ndi-n crop and the threat of rust dni-.e
in the United States. Prices, however, later declined
with increased supply prospects, slow Eurcpean dem-and, -nd
a falling commodity price level, and averaged about the
same compared with 1936-37.





WS-^- 8 -

Jul. -September wheat di- .-carr.: 1'-rter than in 1937

October 1 stocks of wheat in the United States are estimated at "'-cut
_'1 million bu.hels c:-. ared with 7-1 million in 1937 and 7)41 million busr.els
in 1936 (toble 7), The estimate for October this ye-r indicates a domestic
dis arance of about 215 million bu--hbls for the July-S.eptemb r period
compared with about IS3 million bushels for the same months in 1937 (table 4).
T:e increase this year r:-'flects increased feeding rnd other f-rm use of
wheat during the first quarter, and would 'rpear to confirm the .Bureau's
July fctecast of a total di..-.-ppearance for the year of about 1'' million
bushels.

Table 4.- Supply and disappearance of wheat in the United States,
July-September, 1937 and 19358

Item : 1937 1938

:Million bushels Million bushels
Supply i -
Stocks, July 1 ......................... : 83.2 154.1
Production ............................. : 874.0 940.2
Less net exports, July-Sept. .............: 13.0 27.9
Total ............................ ..... : 944 2 1, 66.4
Stocks, Oct. 1 -
On farms ... ......... .................: 3?6.5 407.0
Commercial .............................. : 1.hl.5 139*3
Country mills and elevators ............ : 154.8 174.5
Merchant mills and elevators I/ .........: 13S.2 130.2
Total ....... ........................: 761.0 851.0
Disappearance 2/.......................... : 183.2 215.4

I/ ir --au of Census raised to represent all merchant mills; includes "stored
for others by merchant mills".
2/ Balancing item.

The October 1 estimate of 251,771,000 bushels for all sprin-g wheat and
the AurauCt estimate of 68S,458,000 bu-h. ls for winter wheat production,
totaling 940,229,000 bushels, will remain unchan ed until December 19, when
the Bureau iLssues its rpr-.rt on revi,:d acreage, yield and production fic-ures
for 1938. With no ch:r-n:. in the estimates for disappearance nnd exports, the
table showin- estimated wheat supply 1nd prosictive distribution, publish-d
in "The Wheat Siturtion" for Octob.r, page 8, remains un.h-n.ed.

Matrril reduction in United States e.h_.--t .cr.:.... for 19 hr-v: .-t

The first official estimate of the acrer.z.: and condition of winter
wheat for harvest in 1939 will not be available until December 21. But the
private creo estimates of winter wheat acr- .',: of November 1 a'r-,r -ed 46.4
million acres. This represents a reduction of .bout 19 percent from the 57.3
milliono n acres seeded a year ago. .In information is v':t available on the





WS-25


pro' --ble reduction in Fprin..- sein-s. But, if the winter wheat acr i
r i':--. by 19 .-'rcent, *.:'. if a siril- r educationn is mde from the
million vcres of snri wheat seeded v<-t s-ri:n,, tt soedc ares would
totn! ai"ut T million acres, .i th aver :i-; "ieds (:2 buKels per as cd .
acre), such an i-',-. would r est in a cror of about 7'" million bushels
A pro-.':.tion ," this size would leave 10i million -ushels or less to be
e z-rted or adde to the alre:-- lrce carrr-over.

Precipitation over most ;-ricultural areos has now relieve or 'r :en
the sev re ':"'.-'-.t that hd develoend over mch of the country. More r- I:
is nee!.1 in the southeastern States, -nd the topsril wo-tld benefited
mat rially y addition 1 moisture in harts of the Ohio Valley. Elsewhere
the moisture situation is : ner1lly favorable over th-, eastern half of the
country. Cnld weather froze the soil in centr-l-northern sections and
st '-,. field work.

In the Ohio V'lley wint r 'het is now in fair condition, except in
local -:r--, such as in parts of central -and southern Illinois. In the
tr-ans-Mississi-pi States and in much of the eastern Great Plains the crop has
improved i-rn.r the past few weeks. In Oklahoma considerable heatt has
i'en planted ir.e the rains which occurred during the first half f of November
And that previously sown in dry soil is co,.."1 up to ;ood stands. Much
of the early crop, however, is still in poor condition. In the Panhandle
of To-x--s the outlook still is favorable, but it remains too '-" in -.r other
sections of the State, where s.-- :in is still delayed; in wast-central
counties some Lry-planted grain came up after the recent moderate rainfall,
but now is mostly i-inr.: n.i must be renlanxted.

In oetern Kansas, while st-ndis are still largely thin and spotted,
wheat shows i--rrovement and the late -a:1:'. is coming up. In the western
half of the State many fields are b'-re; while in some f vored localities
the .r7ouni is covered, the root .--'-,tem is poor. In ':-rskka the condition
of wheat is lar-.ly satisfactory in the eastern and extreme western portions,
but elsewhere it -.s s-ffered from dry-r.ss and is in such a condition that it
is likely to lf'fer a large winter loss.

In the northwestern Plains wheat -nd ry:,: re favored by moderate
snowfall, while in the Great B sin, including the better wket sections of
eastern 'asiin .-ton, the fields are mostly protected by ra airole snow cover.
In the Middle -and. worth Atlantic States the outlook remains favorable, bt
it is still too dry for proper .-: .iir.- in the Gulf nrea from the lower
Mississippi Valley,- eastward.

Som' :. tic prices iis ,l in i 'r'.i ".f r'* t r.:'"^ h

While prices at Livernool declined 4 to 11 cents '-etween Octo,:.r 21
rMnd November 10 (table 3), w:-- at prices in domestic markets hell fairly
steady, lar -ly as a result of United States Government purchaser, Government
c'r..-., dr;,yn-ess in the winter wheat belt, and further *errovement in domestic
-ui-iness conditions. All classes and t-ad-,-s of heatt at 6 markets (t-. le 6)


1/ In terms of U. S. c'r-ncy. Decline partly accounted for b" d-oreciation
of pound sterlir-..


- 9 -





WS-25


- 10 -


averaged about the same for the week ended November 19 as for the week ended
October 22, with practically no c-.nge in hard red winter wheat prices at
Kansas City and only about a cent decline in hard red spring and durum prices
at Minneapolis. Large supplies of r-i winter, however, influenced lower
prices at St. Louis, where the decline am..ounted to about 2 cdnts during this
same period.

According to an announcement by the Commodity Credit Corporation, up
to and including November 17, approximately 25 million dollars had been loaned
on 42 million bushels of wheat. Up to October 15 the Federal Surplus Commicdi-
ties Corporation had purchased about 20 million bushels of cash wheat and had
made export sales of about 16 million bushels of wheat and flour.

Changes in wheat prices are expected to continue to depend largely
upon ch-:-::es in crop prospects in Argentina and Australia, the progress of the
United States winter wheat crop, and general business conditions.



Table 5.- Average closing prices of December wheat futures, specified
markets and dates, 1937 and 1938


Date I Winnipeg :Liverpool : Buenos : Chicago : Kansas :Minneapolis
: L/ : I/ : Aires : : City :
:1937 : 1938:1937 :1938 :1937 :1938 :1937 :1938 :1937 :1938 :1937 :1938
:Cents Cents Cents C-nts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents-Cents Cents Cents


Month- :
Au2. :122.3
S.:pt. :123.9
Oct. :120.0

ended-:
Oct. 8:121.9
1: :118.2

29:118.2
Nov. 5:111.1
12:112.5
19:114.g

Hi h /:121.9
Low 3 :111.1


68.1 127.5 75.5
61.8 130.2 71.4
59.2 128.7 66.7


58.8 130.4
59.7 126.5
59.8 125.3
58.6 129.7
57.3 125.3
57.4 122.4
58.9 120.3


68.2 2A37.7
67.14_2hL5.9
67.0 2, 43.3
64.7 115.4
62.0 110.2
62.0 lo06.7
63.0 108.6


59.g 130 .4 68.214A45.9
57.3 120.3 62.o04Ao6.7


2/57.2

/ 52..1
/50o.6
2/53.8
55.2


--- 111.0
--- 106.6
--- 100.0


103.4

98.6
96.8
91.2
89.5
91.5


2/58.8 103.4
/J50.6 89.5


65.8
64.6
65.0

64.2
65.0
65.5
65.5
64.0
64.0
64.0

65.5
64.o


104.8 61.5 119.2
101.4 60.9 114.7
97.0 61.1 o10.S


99.3
95.5
96.0
94.7
88.5
86.6
89.2


6o.o 110.9
61.o lo06.9
61.8 10g.4
61.8 106.6
59.9 98.8
59.8 98.5
59.7 100,5


99.3 61.8 110.9
86.6 59.8 98.5


68.8
66.5
66.3


65.5
66.0
66.9
67.1
65.6
66.4
66.,

67.1
65.5


IL Conversions at noon buying rate of exch-rn-e.
j Nov :'.'-r futures.
SOcto' r 8 to November 19, 1938, and corresponding dates 1937.
I;ov''mb r and December futures.






- 11 -


Table 6.-';'i "-t-- I ave '.- cash pri 'e of th.';t, :p feci:ii x' rk t:; 'nd
dates, 1.T 7 7md 1 ,

:All classes: !:0. 2 : ". :'.o. 2 H-rd : iTe. : oW.torn
:and ::r, ..s :Hard .1t.ter: .::.. r -. :K .ber ..:'u ::Red ''iwter : .t
ate :six mar1':, ts:Kan sa s C7ity:. .:. _.;olo.is: 'i' i.Dolis:,t. Lui s :.* attIe I/
:1977 : 2?7 :1037 :1' ?, 1977 : : 7 :: 8 :1." :1..' :i. 7 :
:-.nts Cents Cents Cnts Cents Cents Cns ntsnts nts C nts Cents Ct *t
M.cnth-


.Au.:.,
Zert.
Oct.
'. -k
ended-
Oct. -
15
22
29
DIov. 5
12
19

High 2/
Lo'.-. 27


:1C ".5
:108.7
:172.7


:10,.0
:101.4

:17 9.4
: 94.0
: >7.9
: 95.0

:1'. '.0
: 9,.9


t[.5

6 ..9


'Y .
65.7
5 .I
66.0
64.4

65.2

66.0
6.4


111.8
1 *.: 5
106.0


107.4
102.7
104.0
102.0
95.65
S.59


107.4
:'- ,5


6.5
65.7
64.7


63.8
65.9
64.4
55.2
63.7
U'. 95



"0.)< .^


132.8
1:3.5
126.8


128.9
120.6
126.6
1159.4
116.4
1o.8
113.1

123.9
115.8


77.5
76.2
73.3


73.3
72.9
74.0
7 .1
71.1
72.9
73.2


71.1


116.3
110.1
103.3


109.4
106.7
110.4
103.5

9f.2
101.9

110.4
93.2


75.1
68.9
65.5


65.1
66.2
65.2
65.6
62.7
65.1
64.6

66.2
62.7


112.0
109.2
1C 4.0


107.4
100.3
101.3
110.7
*:.4
85.5
93.0

107.4
85.5


65.6
67.1
63.5


*7.6
68.9
69.1
68.0
66.1
66.0
66.7

69.1
66.0


90.5


91.3




81.8
?4.7

91.8
81.8


6].2
C, .7



6..2
63.5

t.:.9
,67 .C
62.3


:.9
62.2


/ I.: ...kly averme of daily cash quotations, b:--.is ITo. 1 sacked.
_/ October 8 to U1ovembor 19, 1938, and corrcspc-ndin: dates for 1937.


T-Atle 7.-October 1 stocks of wheat in the United St-:tes,
1934-38


Position


S1934 1935 1936
: 1,000 bu. 1,l00 bu. 1,000 bCI


1937

1,Z00 il.


1958
17:C: bu.


On f-rms ............: 244,275 269,16
In country elevators :
and mills .......: 115,749 1C7,0<
Commercial stocks ...: 120,075 79,7(
In merchant mills
and elevators ....: 126 597 1 2 9

Total ............: 606,696 57518]


22!h,172

113,650
82,849

119,6-27


541.306


326,505

154,757
141,496

179,160


760,916


174,575
1379, *"


: 1,035


Y/ Bureau of Census raised to represent all merchant mills, includes "stored for
others by merchant rills".


W3-25






- 12 -


Table 8.-'.':.eat .-rlus for export or carry-over in three exporting
countries, United KFinrdom port stocks and stocks afloat,
November 1, 1925-E2 1/


Position 1935 1976 1. 57 198
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. 17il. bu.

Canada:
In Canada ..........: 298 155 89 221
In United States ...: 32 22 2 4
.: entina ............: 28 15 6 16
A..-tralia ............: 25 17 11 18
Total .............. : 3_ 209 1Cq 259
United Kir,-dom port :
stocks ........: 6 7 10 17
Stocks afloat to:
United Kingdom .....: 19 17 12 10
Continent ........: 7 11 10 14
Orders ............. :3 6 5 8
Total ............. : 35 41 37 32
Grand total ......: 418 250 145 291
1/ Carry-over at the beginning : of the year (Canada, July 31; Argen-
tina, January 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus
pro':uction, rminrjs domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly
exports to date.

Table 9.-Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1977 and 197l


: Arcentina : Australia :
: 19.l 7 : 1938 : 1977 : 1773 :
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels


Danube
1937 : 19 :
1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


: North America
: I.."7 : .?J8
1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


..: 10,760 16,592 15,376 25,432 11,040


1,220
368
1,072
256
216
0
1,012


26
412
796
,488
,C12
900
713


904
2,016
1,104
1,712
1,764
1,900
r.? 1


972
1,708
"14
1,796
496
561
c,[


1,680
1,560
2,072
912
584
2,224
912


S3,'- 35,560 54,768


400
92L'0

1,576
848
396


4,048
4,400
3,568
4,704
4,?, .
5,368
5,360


5,776
4,768
8,104
7,2)0
6,192
6,482


Compiled from Broonhall's Corn


Period


July-Sept. ...
Week ended-
Oct. 8 ....
15 .....
22 ...
29 .....
:'iov. 5 .....
12 .....
19 .....


Trade r-ts.





- 13 -


-,.lI 10.-'-. "ozs of .h t -~J v.eat fl_ ur frou t-k
United S ":+ .937 d

(!no .uds f.' I nillcd in bond fro2 foreign :'.:het)


t : -. at fl:ur : t.- t inci i.-
_____ l_ our
Period : :
: 1937 : 193S : 1937 : 1937 : 1938

: 1,00 1, CO 1,000 1,000 1000 1,. 3D
: bulL-els bTubeLs b:.'. c bRa-rels bushjls bu:>i.;ls

July-S t. ...: 10,276 24,011 1,075 1,206 15,330 29,/ D
:...k ended /'
Oct. 8 .... 1,363 572 59 54 l,64o E:
15 ....: 1,792 567 74 100 2,140 1,037
22 ....: 1,327 476 28 17 1,459 556
29 ....: ?-5 306 57 51 1,263 546
iT.v. 5 ....:' 1,iE4 717 53 93 1,4.~ 1,154
12 .... 1,939 2/ 387 35 2/ 92 2,103 2/ 819



Compiled from re:.:.rt3 of the Depertnent of CoLuerce.

i/ Data for total e-xports frt_: the United Statos by weeks are not avail-
able. These data are the total of exports thrc.uh 16 of the pinicipal
ports.
2/ P, .lininary.





- 14 -


Table 11.- Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
countries, 1935-36 to 1.38-39


: Exports as given by official sources :
: t'-7 : 1 .. i. :.
:1935-36 :193r)-37 : Z137-3 : .-)-,'-, : .- ,-.. : 7'. ^-39 :


: 1,OOL b C'"' 1,,- .,(
: bushels bushels bushels busi


United States 1/:
Canada ......... .:
Argentina ......:
.ustralia ......:
?ussia .........:
Hungry ........ :
Yugoslavia ..... :
F.ar nia .... ...:
Bulgaria .......:
British India ..:


15,929
237,447
76,577
105,328
29,704
14,644
728
6,392
988
2,556


21,584
213,028
162,977
98,730
4,479
27,428
17,954
36,264
7,273
16,571


107,204
94,546
69,670
123,343
43,354
9,368
5,012
32,962
8,484
19,677


1,OCO


5,470
102,245
19,072
8,933
530
985
2,008
276
1,165


15,330
36,806
14,000
13,144
3,080
2,218
1,975
1,318
1,085


1,000
bushels

29,680
57,088
19,541
16,176
14,700
7,894
1,586
1,218
178


Sept. 30
Oct. 31
Oct. 31
Aug. 31
Aug. 31
Sept. 30
Aug. 31
July 31
Aug. 31


Total ......: 490,293 606,288 513,620
: ___Shipments -.s givGn by trade sources
:.___ ':a" : ,'. k .... ',. 1918 :
:1936-37 : 1'.-'-. 8 : I' 5 ic-.... : N v.
: ,." 1,000 1,000 1,000 T1,00 1
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bu


July 1 I'cv.19
1' 7 : 19 .:5


,000
she ls


1,000
bushels


North America 2/:
Canada ...
United States 5:
Argentina ......:
Australia ......


231,832
196,412
10,395
164,678
105,836


184,720
81,378
83,651
66,928
127,520


6,192
4,560
1,154
1,012
496


6,482
4,244
819
900
561


713
555


_4/62,556
4/38,557
T/22,864
14,904
25,708


4/93,450
4/58,186
4/29,367
22,749
32,364


Russia .........: 88 42,248 824 952 --- 4/22,872 4/35,048
Danube and
Bulgaria 6/ .. 65,544 37,520 848 896 --- 4/20,072 4/ 9,208
British India ..:7/ 16,b71 7/19,677 0 0 0 9,010 6,280
Total 8/ .....: 584 59 478,413 155,102 199,399
Total European :9/ 9/
shi:-;.-rnts 2/ ..: 494,670 397,656 9,704 1 9,1:'.- 159,408
Tr.tal ex-European 9_/ 9
shipments 2/ ..: 127,192 99,400 1,728 30,744 38,368
i/ Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
/ Broomhall's Corn Trade "'..:s.
3/ Overseas clearances, and imports into the United States.
T/ Through November 12 only.
7/ Official reports received from 16 principal ports only.
5 Black .' shipments only.
9/ Ttal of trade figures includes North knAmerica as reported by Broomhall's
out doe not include it r.s 2 and 3.
_/ Official.
j/ :ovcmber 5 only.


C mount ry


Date








'. .r*&- t ;ion

--e world :roducticn of : i. in .- is indicated to be about 17
recent above te t of i. rodction in the cntrie r i-
(table 1:) is esti':.t.t *t 1,04- million ,u'--els, eo:-r "d with the 19 "
c' of .)2 million bu: .s i: -..e 'ine euntries.





1. able 12-ti ed 1, C I ,

C ... .. .. 7 ,1 .





E.^-. -1, : d 7 2
s t d Scia ... .. ... : 6P, 7 ; ,: .9 49, *, ,t

.Ca. .... ......: 0 12, 16'.,? 1_,6_


tul (2) e. .......: 9,71 ._____ 28 50_ _, 8,615




J9 290P3 72, 3 333,170
*i ..........: l 14, 10" 16, 1 2,15,




1 ........... 2, 1,3 2 ",77 9 2,,146 1
CzechoIso'ikia ...: ., 68 55 79










ItD y .... 5.7... : "5 5,o597/i 5,037
...... 1 ,1 7 7 2" 9 3,

Estonia ...........: 6,2: 6,044 9, 217 7,6 7
Fir. -.d .... ......: u,760 12,. "16,982 14,6 ,
". e...........: 29,371 28,150 29,319 31,665
e9 ........ 9 290,3 72,26 333,170

Austria .......... : -,
Greece ...........: 2, 1, 2 ,79 2,441
Irel.nd .......... : 69 63 55 79
It22.y ............: 6,225 5, 4 5,701 5,437
Latvia ...........: 14,76 1, /6,479/14,69
Lit ,-r.ia ........: .,2'1 21,54 23,.94 24,647













Yugoslavia .......: 74719 P ,02 3 9 051
l. .;r ..........: 52 49 92 512
t.t.*-.r.an.s ......: 1!9,311 18,63 18,2-.. 21,259

P:1>.l ........... : .260,498 70,Ofl; 221,95.3 2'" ,4:'6
(,) "4 1/16
.................... : 19,245 1i >53 19,694 -/16,900

.:ltzerla d ......: i _1,2951 1,C0.7 1,?.'O 13..1..2
1 : -1 ..of e.. -:rlin ice of the u of .u758,048url Economis.
TI-, ".. ria .........n: 7 ,7 7 8 ,. 9 ,: 8 R -
..... ... ........... : 28,650 28,114 24,3::.LS 32,279

Yugoslavia ....... : 7,719 8 ,_,022 0 ,..o 9,051
.t-.l (4) ....... .,50offici data, except as oth, noted.
A1 ;eria .......... : 17 29 37 72
"-',-.--____ .'c i 6741 18,"- 21,259
TFtal (30) ......: 963 471 :,O.91,-.0 1. *r
1/ EstPiate of the -..rin ,".:fice of the n .,reau of .i-:. cultural Economies.
i/ Winter -.Aeat only.
Compil',3 from offici'l1 data, except as otherwivse noted.




- 16 -


C:':,-i-es in tables accompanyr.-.v -:hest c. rts ir Wheat Situation for
.'X.u;ust 25, 1938 and in Agricultural Cutlcck Charts 1939
?age in:-

K*cat :C"rt
,itua-:Book
ion


1 With new wheat in commercial and merchant mill stocks
1..:.' I 2..., 5,.. *.r 1 I .,07' C'6,7
1937 21,851 11,942 16,197 52, 99 102,989 873,993
1938 59,258 31,833 28,333 54,211 173,628 940,229


34,455 803,297
634 977,516
--- 1,11.,567


.'.ith only old wheat in all stocks positions
1TT7 "i, 1 11, '." ',..2 4-.,, .,14 873,993 634 957,
1938 59,258 31,833 22,190 40,791 154,072 940,229 ---1,094,
3/ From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United 3..
Imports include full-duty wheat, wheat paying a duty of 10 percent
valorem, and flour in terms of wheat; and exclude flour free for e:
port as follows: 42,742 bushels in 1935-36; and 108,C95 bushels in
1937-38.


2 With
lJUG
1937
Y, ith
1937


841
301

ad
X-


new wheat in cc:nmcercial and merchant mill stocks 102,889
.,l"d 76, c.,' 9 I,')1 6 "- K ,. 502,988 688,132 /
83,747 16,322 3,321 103,390 96,049 110,257 494,182 700,-l-, /
only old wheat in all stocks positions 173,638
83,747 16,322 3,321 103,390 96,049 110,257 494,073 700,379 154,072


6 3 1938 81,088


11.6 940,229


7 5 1938 23,772 10.6 251,771

7 .'ith new wheat in commercial and merchant mill stocks
1938 77 386 463
With only old wheat in all stocks positions


8 1938

10 1938

9 13 1937
1938

14 1935
1937
19:.


21

31

3/ 285


69.2
81.4
81.1


386

103

168

13.5


50.3
58.6
60.1


446

124


199


3,836
4,364


91.6


20.7
20.8


58.3
55.9


17 1936
1937


8 19 1936
1938


2/-25,174
9 435


142
174(155)


155
36


Continued -


474,346
SJ '.'5


88,797
,r">{ ''


457
7:. ,


W.S-25









- 17 -


Chrres in table. ace" ,nyir, whctt c.rts in ". .hv.t Citurticn or
.'ui-st 25, 1~K8 and in. Agriultur 1 Out lock Charts 1^9'
S*- C r t .C t 1


"T.eat :Chart
Situa-: Heck
t i o r.

10 21


1933

1* i
.1 '>
1-5
i1>'B


552
F26


_27
3/ 674
y, :i.?_


715

$ 0


.....>2


1,745

1,: -3
1, J7
ii _'U
SI (,


12 27 1:58-39 Lug. .7 65.5
Sept. ,.0 "6 ,7
Oct, t '7X. 6-.7
1i6 25,iP (102,',9
103 7-9,': 173, "8

24 KansF s Ci:t N .. 2 I-rd 'inter
1.. ." 7
St. Lo o. 2 Ldd Vinter
i.: '.- ?,3. I

25 K s q City N n. T-T2rd 'Vi ter
S. .5 0
1638 70.0 65.5 65.7 64.7
S,attle 1o. 1 1.' e Club
7-7, .7.' .. 62.7

26 Kansas City No. 2 !Tard Winter
1 .. '. .- .
Mp1s. No. 1 D-.rk oFrthern Sprix
1 ..5 ., 7 7.5 7 .
"''" Is "f--'" Ha-r _b r Durum
35 28 1937 3,839 12.9 49 49

35 28 1937 3,839 12.9 49,449


7: 3
iPI


F 1,444 5,0 3 3, 0


,4 7. _, 3,771
,-. '" -, -,


70


105
105


1I.2
i .3
7






C 3.7
6-1.7

6 ^.* 5


76.7 110,.
94.2 96.5 102.7 99.6 91.5 84.5 79.7 7


63.2


6,578 68.6


..-(-y




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


3 1262 08861 8300




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