Wheat situation

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Title:
Wheat situation
Uniform Title:
Wheat situation (Washington, D.C.)
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v. : ; 26 cm.
Language:
English
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United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service
United States -- Dept. of Agriculture. -- Economics and Statistics Service
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Washington, D.C.
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quarterly
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Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
Wheat trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals -- United States   ( lcsh )
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federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )

Notes

Statement of Responsibility:
Economics, Statistics, and Cooperatives Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Dates or Sequential Designation:
WS-1 (Nov. 1936) - WS-254 (Nov. 1980)
Issuing Body:
Issued, 1936- by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics; <Oct.-Dec. 1953>-Feb. 1961 by the Agricultural Marketing Service; Apr. 1961-Nov. 1977 by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; Feb. 1978- by the Economics, Statistics and Coopertives Servie, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture; <Nov. 1980-> by the Economics and Statistics Service, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture.
General Note:
Cover title.

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University of Florida
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Resource Identifier:
aleph - 000349017
oclc - 04015593
notis - ABY6688
lccn - 78643652 //r812
issn - 0364-2305
Classification:
lcc - HD9049.W3 U66a
ddc - 338.1/7/3110973
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AA00012162:00029

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economies
Washington

WS-14 December 23, 1937

HE WHEAT SITUATI ON


Summary

The 1937-38 estimated world wheat production, excluding Soviet Russia and

China, is now indicated by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics to be about 3,779

million bushels. This represents a reduction of about 29 million bushels from

the estimate of a month ago, largely as the result of downward revisions in the

estimates for Argentina and the United States.

The wheat crop in Argentina has suffered severe frost and drought damage,

and while the full extent of this damage cannot be reckoned at this time, the

production is tentatively estimated by the Bureau at about 185 million bushels,

or abrut 65 million bushels less than last year's harvest. Argentine wheat is a

hard bread wheat similar to our hard winter export type and is needed by European

countries for mixing with soft wheats in milling; a reduction in the Argentine

crop may result in an increased foreign demand for United States wheat.

The December crop report indicated a 1937 production in the United States

of 873,993,000 bushels, which represents a downward revision of 13 million bushels,

mostly in hard red spring wheat. Supplies of hard red spring wheat, however,

still appear ample to take care of prospective domestic requirements. Supplies

of hard and soft red winter and white wheats, on the other hand, remain consid-

erably in excess of domestic needs.

Unless demand is materially below that no'i indicated, small world wheat

supplies may tend to offset the seasonal price influence of increased Southern

Hemisphere marketing, which usually become an important price factor in January.

The world crop estimated at present, added to the carry-over at the beginning of






WS-14


the year, indicates that total supplies in 1937-38, excluding Russia and China,

will be only about 25 million bushels larger than the very small supplies in

1936-37.

The exports from Soviet Russia from July 1 to December 17, amounting to

about 30 million bushels, suggest that total exports for the season from that

country may not exceed 40 million bushels. Last year net wheat exports from

Russia totalled only 4 million bushels, but in 1935-36 and 1933-34, when large

crops were harvested, net exports amounted to 29 and 34 million bushels, respec-

tively.

THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- Total world supplies of wheat, after increasing
from 1929 to 1933, declined sharply following successive years
of small production and increased world demand. The apparent
world disappearance has averaged about 3,770 million bushels
during the past 10 years. World market prices of wheat moved
steadily upward from the spring of 1933 to the summer of 1937,
reflecting higher world commodity price levels, four successive
below average harvests in North America, and the 1935-36 short
Southern Hemisphere crop. In 1936-37 wheat prices advanced
sharply as a result of increased demand and the smallest supplies
in recent years.

During the current year, from the middle of June to the
middle of July, prices rose following reports of serious damage
to the Canadian crop and the threat of rust damage in the United
States. Since July, an increase of about 100 million bushels in
the world crop excluding Soviet Russia and China, the likelihood
of large shipments from Soviet Russia, a slow European demand,
and disturbed business conditions have contributed to a decline
in world wheat prices.

World wheat production; estimate revised downward

The wheat production for the world, excluding Soviet Russia and China,
during the current season is now estimated at 3,779 million bushels (table 9)
compared with the estimate for last year of 3,538 million bushels. The reduc-
tion of 29 million bushels in the 1937-38 estimate during the past month is
accounted for by reductions in the estimates for the crop in the United States
and in Southern Hemispherc countries.


- 2 -






- 3 -


WS-14


The estiratcd production for the Northern hemisphere, excluding Soviet
Russia and China, is now placed at 3,365 million bushels compared with the
1936-37 yield of 3,066 million bushels. The United States crop is now estimated
(December crop report) at 874 million bushels, a reduction of 13 million bushels
from the previous estimate. In Europe the Lstimate of total production remains
unchanged, small increases in some countries being balanced by reductions in
others.

In Argentina the crop suffered great damage from drought and from severe
frosts, which occurred during the latter part of Cctober and the first half of
November. While it is not yet possible to estimate fully the e-nount of the loss
suffered, the Bureau representative in Buenos Aires reports that he does not
believe the full loss is included in the official estimate of 191,984,000 bush-
els. The Bureau of Agricultural Economics is therefore estimating the crop at
185,000,000 bushels. In Australia, where the harvest is almost completed, the
crop is estimated at 161,954,000 bushels, a reduction of about 1 million bushels
from the estimate of a month ago. The first official estimate of the crop in
the Union of South Africa is placed at 12,033,000 bushels, comre.red with
16,077,000 bushels for the past year. This reduction was caused by drought con-
ditions.

The total grain crop including wheat, in Soviet Russia this year, accord-
ing to a preliminCry Soviet estimate, is considerably above the average for
1933-35, and is, of course, much larger than the small crop of 1936. Present
estimates are presumably based on the grain standing in fields and do not include
losses incident to harvesting and storing. The losses, which may amount to from
15 to 20 percent, are expected to be slightly larger than usual because of har-
vesting difficulties experienced this year.

Quality of the 1937 wheat harvest

Early prospects of relatively high quality in the liorthern Hemisphere
wheat crops have not been fully realized. The higher quality of United States
hard red winter, white, and durum wheats has more than counterbalanced the
lower quality of the hard red spring and soft red winter wheats. Only around
60 percent of the August-October inspections of Canadian hard red spring wheats
graded No. 3 Northern or better this season, however, compared with 83 percent
last year. The protein of the Canadian wheat is also under that of last season,
with an average of 14.2 percent as against 14.9 percent last year and 13.9 per-
cent 2 years ago. Of the Canadian durum inspections, 56 percent graded No. 3
Northern or better compared with 82 percent a year ago, while the protein tests
averaged only 13.0 percent compared with 15.7 percent in 1936.

Considerable irregularity is reported in the quality of the European
wheat crop, although the quality in the deficit areas appears to be somewhat
above that of a year ago. Export wheats from the Danube Basin are reported of
satisfactory milling quality, although test weights are under those of last
year, particularly in Hungary.

Little information is yet available as to the quality of the new Southern
Hemisphere crops but early offerings of Australian wheat are reported of excel-
lent quality. It is yet too early to evaluate the extent of the frost damage
on the quality of the Argentine wheat, but it is probable that there will be con-
siderable light-weight, shrivelled grain.





WS-14


Area and condition of fall-sown wheat

Fall seeding of wheat in Canada is estimated at 690,000 acres compared
with 781,000 acres sown in the fall of 1936. Heavy rains have been reported
over a large part of the 1937 drought area, end large moisture reserves now
being built up in the sub-soil should be most beneficial to the wheat sowings
next spring.

No definite statement can yet be made concerning the seedings of winter
wheat in Europe. Estimates are available for very few countries, but from early
indications it would appear that the acreage seeded this fall will be larger
than that of last year. Favorable seeding weather experienced in Central and
Eastern Europe should tend to increase the acreage sown. Governmental policies
i* Germany and in Czechoslovakia, however, may have the effect of discouraging
increased seedings. Winter wheat acreage in the Danube Basin is also believed
to be larger than that of last year, largely because of increased seedings in
Hungary and in Rumania. In Rumania the winter acreage is officially estimated
to be 12 percent higher than in the fall of 1936. Weather favorable for plowing
and sowing prevailed throughout the Danube Basin.

In Italy the government policy of sowing as much wheat as possible is
being carried out. In the southern part of the country seedings were made under
favorable conditions. In northern Italy, however, unfavorable weather retarded
swings to such an extent that in this most important producing area, the total
acreage may be reduced, compared with last year. It is reported that intensive
wheat seeding on the same soil, year after year in Italy is effecting serious
soil depletion. It is expected that the acreage sown to winter wheat in Spain
and North Africa will be about the same. The condition of the crop is considered
generally good throughout Europe, with the possible exception of Northern Italy.
In North Africa insufficient rainfall is reported.

Because of hostilities in the lower Yangtze valley winter wheat seedings
will probably be reduced.

World Import Prospects; estimates changed only slightly

The estimate of total world net imports of 485 million bushels as made in
September, remains unchanged. Net imports by European importing countries are
still placed at about 400 million bushels (table 1), and net imports by non-
European countries at about 85 million bushels. The estimate of imports repre-
sents a total decrease of i.bout 75 million bushels compared with imports in 1936-
37. Imports by non-European countries are expected to be reduced from those of
last season by about 40 million bushels, largely because the United States, a
net importer in 1936-37, is on an export basis this year. Imports by European
net importing'countries are estimated also at about 35 million bushels less than
last season, but they are about 55 million bushels above those of 2 and 3 years
ago and slightly larger than in 1933-34. Because of a smaller quantity available
for export from the Danubian countries, Czechoslovakia, and Poland, European
imports from overseas countries and Soviet Russia may not vary much from those
of last year.


- 4 -





- 5 -


Table l.-Net imports of wheat, including flour 1/, into European
net importing countries 2/, year beginning July 1,
1933-34 to 1936-37, and forecast for 1937-38

Country 1933-34 :1934-35 :1935-36 1936-37 : 1937-3r
:forecastl
: Million Million Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

Austria .. .... ....... ......... : 11 10 7 10 10
Belgium ....... ... ....... ..: 43 40 39 40 40
Denmark ...... ..... ......: 12 19 9 7 7
Finland ....................: 4 4 4 4 3
*France ...................... 18 /-17 7 7 26
.Germany .................... 3/- 4 11 / 23 28
Greece ...* ...... : 12 13 15 21 13.
Irish Free State ...........: 19 18 15 14 14
Italy ................ .... 8 10 7 55 6
Latvia ................ .. 0 4/ /-2 0
Netherlands ................: 24 19 21 21 24
Norway .....................: 9 9 8 9 8
Portugal ......... ...........: 1 1 3j-3 4/ 1
Spain .... .................: / 5./ 4/ 6 1
Switzerland .................: 18 1i 17 19 17
United Kingdom .............: 216 202 205 199 202

Total, net imports .... 6/393 1/358 1/350 436 400oo

1/ Forecast by European offices of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
2/ Excludes Russia, Danubian countries, Czechoslovakia, Poland, and
Sweden in years when any of these countries were net exporters.
3/ Net exports.
L/ ess than 500,000 bushels.
5/ 1et exports of less than 500,000 bushels.
6/ Includes 2 million bushels net imports by Sweden.
jj Includes 1 million bushels net imports by Czechoslovakia.


The indicated decline in European imports in 1937-38 l/ (table 1) com-
pared with those of last year is almost entirely the result of a prospective
sharp decrease in the imports by Italy, and to a less extent by Greece. During
the past year, Italy's estimated importations of 55 million bushels of wheat
ranked that country as the second most important European market. Net imports
of 6 million bushels are included in the table for the current season. Con-
sidering estimated supplies and a probable decrease in wheat consumption as
a result of the decree making it necessary generally to mix cornmeal with
wheat flour, and locally to mix rye, barley, and bean meal with wheat and corn-
meal, it is even probable that some replenishment of Italy's much depleted
wheat stocks may take place. let imports by Greece are expected to be below
those of last season as a result of the large -.arvest in that country.


I/ Information on European imports is front the European offices of the Bureau
of Agricultural Economics.





- 6 -


Increases in net imports areeaxpected for France and Germany, and
possibly also for the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The largest in-
crease will probably be made by France. In view of the policies in other
European countries, much might be said in favor of a policy which would not
let stocks in France decline to very low levels. On August 1, 1937, the
carryover amounted to little more than a single month's supply. It is, there-
fore, not altogether improbable that substantial imports of foreign wheat
could be made. For the time being the Bureau's estimate of net imports
remains at about 26 million bushels. It is estimated that about 20 million'"
bushels of North-African wheat from the 1937 crop will be available to France
this season as against 14 million bushels in 193e-37. France also may be
,able to get some 1938 crop wheat from North Africa by late June.

The estimate of net imports by Germakn in 1937-38 is only moderately
larger than that of last year. This may be considered a conservative estimate
of what Germany needs and would like to import. As trade is now-entirely
a matter of government policy, however, actual imports may be well below,
or, on the other hand, evon somrowhat above the recorded estimate. If rye
were to be used solely as a bread grain, Germany would be virtually self-
sufficient in bread grains even in a poor crop year like the present. In
view of the short Eiropoan rye crop, however, a.d the very limited import
possibilities for this grain, it seems quite reasonable to suppose that
Germany may hold part of the rye supplies (especially as that country is
desirous of replenishing depleted stocks), and import a fair sized quantity
of wheat again if it can be satisfactorily arranged.

The indicated disappearance of wheat and rye in Germany from August
through October 1937 has not been reduced in comparison with one and two
years ago (tables 13 and 14). According to these figures, the restrictions
and regulations under which the Germany bread grain distribution must-operate
in 1937-38 have so far showed little visible effect on total bread grain
disappearance.

Restrictions to reduce the use of wheat and rye in Germany include;
(1) prohibition of wheat and barley feeding, except on qualities absolutely
unfit for milling purposes, (2) surrender by growers of all bread grain
harvested in excess of seed and household requirements, (3) mixing on an
average of 7 percent of corn flour with all wheat flour produced, (4) mixing
of about 4 percent of corn flour with rye flour 2/, and (5) the application
of other bread grain saving measures, including higher extraction percentages.
On the other hand, it is probable that a substantial share of rye deliveries
has been diverted into stocks, perhaps military and emergency reserves, which
are not being reported and are, therefore, not excluded from the disappearance
calculations. It is unlikely that human consumption has increased in view of
the reduced quality of both rye and wheat bread.




2/ Beginning Wovenber 11, 1937 a minimum of 6 percent up to 10 percent pf
potato flour was required in rye flour.





-7-


Domestic supplies of wheat in Portu.al for 1937-39 are again below
normal, but imports will be kept at a minimum. The G-overnment issued. a decree
(effective September 15) providing that all wheat flour used for the baking of
second quality and "Nic" tyne bread m.'st contain a perc,-nta.e of corn and
rye flour. It is estimated that -iout 1 million bushels of corn and rye
would be required for this admixture purpose, but in comparison with normal
requirements this quantity would not make up the deficit in wheat. It is
accordingly felt that net imports of wheat will probably amount to at least
1 million bushels, though it must be recognized that Portugal will not import
unless absolutely necessary. It may be found., too, that the quality deteriora-
tion inherent in the admixture will reduce bread consumption.

Increased rye imports by Austria this season, are probable as a result
of the poor outturn of the rye crop. Substantial purchases of rye have
already been trade from Rumania, Russia--against delivery of Austrian iron
manufactures--TuiK -.y, and the Danubian countries. As in other central
European countries, the poor rye har-vest in Austria has coincided with an
abundant potato crop, so that the rye deficit is aided by a surplus in potatoes,
the disposition of which appears to be something of a problem. To aid in the
disposal of the potato surplus and at the snme time to reduce the grain import
requirements, a law promulgated November 27 provides for the compulsory ad-
mixture of up to 4 percent of potato flour in bread and up to 3 percent in
products made of white wheat.

Italy, France and northern Africa, taken together, will have about
enough durum wheat for all requirements this year and will probably take only
very limited quantities from North and South Anerica or from the eastern
Mediterranean. Algeria and Tunisia have a surplus which will be taken by
France. Morocco has a deficit again this year and, because this year's small
barley crop, probably will import a larger quantity than in 1936-37. Italy
has a good crop, but will undoubtedly build up her stocks and limit her exports,
which will consist largely of products made from durum wheat (including some
hard bread wheat from lorth America). Estimated production and net imports
or exports of durum wheat for 1937-38 are shown in tables 15 and 16,

World e xort prospects; estimated total remains unchanged

Table 2 shows the Bureau's current estimates of the quantities of
wheat which may be furnished by the various exporting countries in 1937-39.
While the total remains -.unchanged, estimates for the various countries have
been revised from the estimates made in November. Exports by the United States
are now placed at 90 million bushels, by Canada 75 million bushels, by
Argentina 80 million bushels, and by Australia 105 million bushels. Exports
from Soviet Russia from July 1 to December 17 amounting to 30 million bushels,.
suggests that total exports for the season from that country probably will.,not
exceed 40 million 7-,ushels.

United States supplies indicate a surplus available for export con-
siderabl;: larger than the 90 million bushels shown in the table, but it is
probable that they will be confined largely to L.arl red winter and white
wheat 3/. Exports of United Sta.tes wheat and flour made from domestic grain
in terms of wheat are estimated at about 33 million bushels for the period
July 1 to December 11.


ij See .,table 6.




W3-14


- 8 -


Table 2.- Estimated exports of wheat in 1937-38
by countries


Country Not exports
: Million bushels

United States .....................: 90
Canada ............ 75
Argentina .........................: 80
Australia ........... .......... .. : 105
Danube ................ ............: 60
Soviet Russia ................. ...: 40
Other ..... ........................ :35
Total ............... :485


The quantity of wheat available for export by European countries 4/ prom-
ises to be considerably reduced this year compared with that of 1936-37. Not
only is the Danubian supply smaller, but Poland and Czechoslovakia have little
wheat for export this year. On the basis of present indications it is esti-
mated that the Danubian Basin countries may export about 60 million bushels
compared with 88 million last season, while Poland and Czechoslovakia combined
may export only about 2 million bushels in 1937-38 against 6 and 10 million
bushels respectively for these two countries in 1936-37.

Wheat and flour exports from the Danubian countries for the July-October
period amounted to 25 million bushels. Of this amount almost 60 percent
originated in Rumania, 17 percent in Yugoslavia, 12 percent in Hungary, and
the balance in Bulgaria. The principal takers of Danubian wheat during these
months were Germany (receiving wheat largely from Yugoslavia and,to a smaller
extent, from Rumania and Bulgaria), Belgium (practically only from Rumania),
England (largely from Rumania and Bulgaria), and Greece (from Rumania and a
small quantity from Hungary), as well as Switzerland, the Netherlands and the
Scandinavian countries.

The unsatisfactory outturn of the: grain crops in Poland this year and the
apparent over-exportation last season, which reduced the carry-over greatly,
make it unlikely that Poland will export much wheat in 1937-38. Internal prices
have risen to such levels compared with world prices that exports are not
feasible nor profitable. Exports for August and September remained much below
the quotas permitted. Local consumption of grain is indicated to be sharply
curtailed through the high extraction requirement in flour and the substitution
of potatoes for rye bread in the diet of the peasant and laboring classes. The
budget draft for 1937-38 involves increased purchases for the accumulation of
an emergency reserve of moderate size, and the State Grain Works are reported
to have already begun purchasing grain for that purpose.

4/ Information on European and Northern African exports from the European
offices of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.





.WS-14 "


It now seems unlikely that net exports from Czechoslovakia will be sir-
nifloent this season. About 3 million bushels of donestic wheat are being
negotlateed for eventual exportation to Germany, one-half to be in the form of
flour. On the. other hand, there are reports indicating that Czechoslovakia has
bought about 1 million bushels of wheat from PRumania and may purchase another
similar amount or more. NegotiationE for the time being have, how vrver, been
suspended since the Rumanian gov'rnrmnt raised prices and rT-de the granting of
.export .permits dependent upon simultaneous purchases of Rumanian wine. Czecho-
slovakia has a large rye deficit this year, necessitating imports, which are
expected to come largely from RTufmnia and Russia. It is possible that an ad-
mixture of wheat flour with rye flour will be decreed, if it should not be
practicable to obtain enough rye fror abroad.

As a result of the small carry-over of grains in Lithuania which will be
left from this year's harvest after deduction of -domestic requirements, grain
exports in 1937-38 appear improbable. It is believed that the export prohibition
for grain,.which was issued last fall, will continue in effect through the cur-
rent season as well.

Exports from French North Africa are now estimated at about 20 million
bushels. Net imports by Morocco may approach 1 million bushels. Wheat supplies
in Torocco are again light, with the barley crop only about half of, that in 1936
and corn also sort. There is a substantial deficit of durum wheat'and imports
of about 31 million bushels may be necessary. To date, imports of over 1 mil-
lion bushels -have been authorized, including recent imports of 700 thcus:and
bushels from Canada and 100 thousand bushels from Turkey; and an authorization
for another million bushels may be given soon. With short grain supplies gen-
erally, France may be able to obtain only about 21 million bushels of bread
wheat from this country, which takings would represent total exports. On the
basis of supplies, it seems doubtful whether net exports from Algeria during
1937-38 can exceed about 2j million bushels of bread wheat and 8 million bushels
of durum. Net exports of bread wheat from Tunisia in 1937-58 may approximate 4A
million bushels of bread wheat and 4 million bushels of durum.

Present estimates indicate that the surplus of wher.t available for export
or carry-over on December 1, 1937, in Canada, Argentina, and Australia, together
with IJtited Kingdom port stocks end. ousntities afloat, wis about 124 million
bushels, or 92. million bushels smaller than on December 1, 1936. Estimates by
countries are shown in table 3. This decline in surplus is more thar. offset by
th..redentry of the United States as an exporting country this year. Wheat sup-
plies available for export or carry-over in Danubian countries on December 1
totaled' about 44 million bushels. 'World wheat shipr.?nts, July 1937 through Dec-
ember 11, 1937, totaled 204 million bushels; this is a decrease of about 46 mil-
liro bushels compared with shiprrnts for the same period a year earlier. The
shipments, however, are only 18 Lillion bushels less than shipments during the
same period, in 1935.

Tables 17. to 21 show figures on the movement of wheat in. international
trade- thi6 season compared with the corresponding periods and totals for other
years.


- 9 -





WS-14 10 -

Table 3.- Wheat surplus for export or carry-over in the three principal
exporting countries, United Fingdom port stocks and
stocks afloat, Dec. 1, 1934-37 1/


Position 1974 1935 19 6 1937
: iil.bu, sn. I.1il.bu i i. M l.bush. Mil.bush.

Canada:
In Canada ...... ............: 288 269 128 69
In United'States ............: 24 33 24 5
Argentina ...................: 26 22 10 5
Australia .....................: 40 17 8 4
Total ..... ................ : 378 341 170 93
United YIingdor port stocks ....: 15 9 7 10
Stocks Efloat to:
United Kingdom ..............: 16 18 19 12
Continent ...................: 11 6 14 12
Orders ......................: 8 3 6 7
Total ....................: 50 36 46 41
J Total above ...............: 429 D77___ 216 124
_./ Carry-over at the beginning of the year (Canada, July 31; Argentina, January
1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production, minus domestic
utilization for the year, minus monthly exports to date.

Foreign wheat prices: Argentine frost damage a strengthening factor

Prices of futures at Liverpool (tables 4 and 5) declined from late October
to the end of November, influenced by more favorable crop prospects for both the
current Southern Ferdsphere harvest and the 1938 crop in America. Heavy frosts in
Argentina on Niovember 10, 11 and 16 served to check tle rice decline, and while
prices advanced temporarily, they have since remained relatively steady. Cash
prices at Liverpool, however, have not declined as mu:h as futures. Parcels av-
eraged 135.7 cents in :Tov-rmber ccmoared with 137.2 cents in October, which repre-
sents a decline of only 1.5 cents. May futures, on tfi other h-:nd, declined 6.7
cents, from an average of 123.0 cents in October to 116.3 cents in November.

Argentine prices (tables 4 and 5) have advanced since the last of November
influenced by prospects of considerable frost damage. Both cash and future prices
in Canada have also advanced with the prospects of increased demand for Canadian
wheat resulting from the small Arcentin' crop. Whce.t prices in Canada are rela-
tively high as a result of a v-ry small crop. For the week onded December 11,
No. 3 Manitoba 1Northern at Winnipeg was only 9 cents lower th.n No. 1 Dark North-
ern Spring at Linneapolis, a fairly cor-iarable grade. Ordin-rily the spread is
much wider than this. In the 5 years, 1929-29 to 1932-Z3, avhcn the United States
was last on an export basis, the price of Io. 3 ,anitoba northernn at Winnipeg
averaged 16 cents belc.' No. 1 Dark Northern Spring *-t innr.e polis. Prices of the
'better grades in Canada have been especially high this season as a result of a
relatively small proportion of the crop qualifying fcr the higher gr'-des. No. 1
*Manitoba Northern in November this year averaged 24 c3nts higher and No. 2, 19
cents higher than No. 3 M-unitoba Northern, compared with the 1928-32 November
average of 6 and 3 cents, respectively.


-, y *






Table 4.- Average price per bushel of wheat, snecifiei markets ani dates, 1977

t : Kn.ss:ir.:--eq-i s:"'i.'-r.ie : c..os : Liver-:Jre t Britain: Bcrlin
:Cit., 1/: 2 : 3/ :Aires 4!:pcol 4/: 5/ 1 6
: Certs Ce:.ts Ce:.ts Cents Cents Cents Cenits


Month
Sent. ....: IC:- .
Oct. ...... .. '
.Lov. .....: 3 .2
Week en.'e :
:.3v. 3 ...: F,3
13 ...: 92.5
20 ...: 94.9
ci 4..: 24.0
Dec, 4 ...: 35.4
11 ...: ^.83


137.5
126. z
115.3

111.,4
115.8
118.1
10-3.9
111.6
121.3


121.1
117.4
110.6

109.4
111.7
113.8
108.1
110.0
112.3


125.2
137.7
106.9

110.2
106.7
103.6
104.0
104.1
106.0


170.4
131.4
1i0. 5

125.3
122.4
120.3
117.1
114.7
115.4


115.4.
123.0
120.4

122.3
121.7
119.4
118.3
117.0


215.0
11.7.0


219.0
219.5
219.0


Prices are aver-. s of daily -prices for the week ending Saturday except as follows:
Berlin prices are .'ie'neIy quotation-. Prices at foreign markets are converted
to Uni-.e. States or.ey at the current rates of excr'.- e.
Ij Yo. 2 Hard writer. 2/ :>. 1 Dark :.crthern Srrine. 3/ Ito. 3 M"nito' northern .
4J Tear ?-.tures. 5/ Home-grown wheat in England and -.7ales. 6/ Central Germian
wheat, vinclesale trade price free Central German Station.

Table 5.- Avera-c closi.' prices of '.V- --.e'.t futures, specified market' ard
dates, 198, and 1937

: ,WiT'nire : Liverpool : Buenos : : sans-.s : Mi..:-.eap-
Date : I/ : I/ : A'res : C-id-.r: : City _: lis
::*1 ;:19C7 ;19^lI :137 13:1:7 *: p :17; 1 :. 7" 1737 T1' 7
: Ce t.ts:Cents:Cents:Ce :e .t s:Cents: C et :Cents:Cents:Cents: ets:"SeS


MLor.th : : :


July : : :
A:. :101.7:13.3: -- : -- :
Sent.:1K-.5:124.6: -- : -- :
Oct. :1:'.8:11.6: -- :123.0:
.nv. :107.8:110.4:112.6:113.3:


: : : : --

.- :110.4:113.0:109.7:107.1:1 .J:.
-- : :111.2:108.3:1 B.9 :19 1.7:1230. 3:


-- :113.5:1~9.4:110.*~:
-- :114.7: 90.8:110.9;


eek : : : : : : 2 :
ened: : : : : : / :

". 9 -- .:113. *:
I._,v. : 107.3 109.1 :110.4:118.9 : 2.4:113.1;
Kov.13:1'-.9:110. C:'111.7113.3. -- :: .8:1L3. :
Nov.20:10.1 :112.1 :113.0:117.2: -- : 9:115.4:
27:1'.3: ..9:113.9:114.2: -- |^ 9.-3:116.11
Dec. 4:11 .0:112.4:119.1:114.1: 01.2 0 :1.0- :10.1:
11:ii1..6:115. 6:12. .0:114.0: 0-2.5-:l 5:1 2.4:


:

91.3:109.5:
89.8:109.9:
:1.8:111.6:
0.2:112.1:
91.6:115.2:
93. 3:117.6:


96.5: 12.0:
27.2:124. 3:
: :

P7.5:1 2.1:
8 5.9: 1 Z. 5:
2?.0:12".4 :
67.2:1:. 3:
. 7:129. 0:
x..: 131.6:


: : : : : Jl : : : : :
i h4 :115.6:126.2:122.0 :14.7: -- jcS.4'iW. 4:108.8:117.6:104.0:131.
Low 4/:1-.9:1%.1:110.4:11-:.: -- 99.8:112.2: 89.8:109.5: 85.9:121.6:

1J Conversio-z at noon btyiz:-. rate of Exc'.-i:-e.
2J/ Teb n'r7- f't zres.
!/ !arch ';ut-.ures.
4/ October 1 to date.
/ ?eb'r-ary a:d lierch futures.


118.8
114.7
1C'7.3
97.9


93.0
97.4
99.5,
97..0
9 .7
1:-r. 7

114.1
97.0


WS-14


- 11 -


: :






WS-14 12 -

TniE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BAOKGRObiU.- The carry-over of wheat in the United
States for the 5-year period (1924-28) averaged about
115 million bushels. Stocks which began to
accumulate in 1929 reached the record peak of 378
million bushels in 1933. Four small wheat crops since
that time, however, reduced stocks to about 100
million bushels by July 1, 1937.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933-34
to that of 1936-37 were unusually high relative to
world market prices, because of four small domestic
crops caused largely by abnormally low yields per acre.
During 1936-37 both world and domestic prices advanced
sharply as a result of increased demand and the smallest
supplies in recent years.

With prospects for another year of small world
wheat supplies, wheat prices advanced from the middle of
June to the middle of July, and it was thought possible
that world prices might remain sufficiently above last
year's levels to offset the decline in United States
prices to an export basis. However, with ax. increase of
about 100 million bushels in the 1'orld crc?, excluding
Soviet Russia and China, the likelihood of large shipments
from Soviet Russia, and the slow European demand, prices
in world markets have declined until it now appears that
the price of wheat at local United States markets,
weighted by monthly sales, will average somewhat lower
in 1937-38 than in 1936-37.


Domestic wheat supplies and distribution;estimates revised

The Decembur 1 crop report indicated a 1937 production of 873,993,000
bushels of all wheat co'ipared with the October indication of 866,895,000
bushels ]/. Estimates by classes of wheat in thousand bushels are now as
follows: Hard red winter, 375,164, soft rod winter, 256,552;
hard red spring, 102,408; durum, 28,749; and white, 111,120.

The reduction in the total estimate co-.parcd with the October report
amounts to 13 million bushels, involving a reduction of 12 million bushels of
hard red spring and 1 million bushels each of hard rod winter and durum wheat.
The estimate for white wheat was increased 1 million bushels. These revised
production estimates, together with a slight reduction in the previous estimate
of prospective exports, necessitate small changes in thu prospective supply
and distribution by classes (table 6). Supplies of hard red spring and
duru.i wheats still appear about ample to take care of prospective requirements,
while supplies of hard and soft rod winter and white wheats are considerably
in excess of domestic requirements. On the basis of exports totaling about

5/ Acreage, yield and production estimates for 1937, 1936, and the 5-year
(1923-32) average are sho.n in tables 10 and 11.





WS-14 13 -
90 million bushels, carry-over stocks on July 1, 1938, would be expected to be
slightly over 200 million bushels. Stocks of this size would be larger than
those of the past 3 years but much smaller than during the period 1930-34,
when they averaged 326 million bushels.


Table 6.- Estimated prospective wheat supplies and distribution by classes
for 1937-38, on basis of prospects, December 1937

: Hard : Soft : Hard : : :
Item: red : red : red : Durum : White : Total
Item
: winter : winter: spring: : :
:Million Million Million Million Million Million
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

July 1, 1937 stocks ......: j_/ 45 15 18 3 10 1/ 91
Production ...............: 375 257 102 29 111 874
Total ............. 420 272 120 32 121 965
Prospective utilization...: 291 196 100 27 56 670
Difference ........: 129 76 20 5 65 295
Exports as forecast 2/...: 65 0 0 0 25 90
Prospective carry-over, :
July 1930 .............: 64 76 20 5 40 205

_/ An estimated 12 million bushels of new hard red winter wheat in the
July 1 stocks not included. 2/Includes flour in terms of wheat; includes
shipiaents to possessions.


Domestic wheat prices; downward trend checked

Domestic wheat prices have been unsettled since Uovember 8, when the
lowest prices since about May 1936 were reached (tables 4,5, and 7). Prices
during the third week in November averaged higher as a result of frost damage
in Argentina and renewed buying by importing countries. During the last week
in November domestic prices declined with those of Liverpool, largely as a result
of slow demand and liberal offerings of new Australian wheat in European
markets. In early December, however, both domestic and foreign markets were
strengthened by confirmation of extensive dam-Age to the Ar'gentine crop.

With the prospective carry-over and the new crop small in Argentina,
and with Canada's surplus remaining for export small, foreign demand for United
States wheat is expected to increase unless foreign business conditions become
more unfavorable than is now anticipated. Moreover, the spread in domestic
prices under those in importing countries has now become fairly wide. The
price of No. 2 Hard Winter wheat at i:ansas City for Uovember averaged 42 cents
under Parcels at Liverpool compared with a spread o0 31 cents in October
and 26 cents in September (table 8)
Increased Southern Hemisphere marketings usually become an important
price factor in January. Unless the demand is materially below that now
indicated, however, small world wheat supplies this year may tend to offset
the seasonal price decline.




WS-14


Table 7.- Woighted average cash price of wheat, specified markets
and datos, 1936 and 1937

:All classes: No. 2 : No.1 : No.2 Hard : No. 2 : Western
:and grad.os :Hard. ,inter:Dk.N.Spring:AmLber Durum:Red Winter : White
Date :six mi.rkets;Kaisas City:Minneapolis;Minneapolis:St. Louis :Soattle 1/
:1936 :1937 '1936 :1937 : 16 1937:1936 :1937 "1936 '1937 :1936 :1937
:Cents Conts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Month :
Sept. :124.8
Oct. :128.9
Nov. :127.5
Week
ended- :
Nov. 6 :127.5
13 :128.9
20 :127.4
27 :126.5
Dec. 4 :129.9
11 :131.4


108.7 122.1 109.5 146.5 133.5
103.7 122.0 106.0 148.4 126.8
93.5 121.9 94.2 144.3 115.3


94,0
90.9
95.0
93.4
95.2
97.5


120.9
121,2
123.0
122.9
127.7
12i, 8


95.6
92.5
94.9
94.0
95.4
96.8


143.7 116.4
144.4 115.8
144.5 118.1
141.4 103.9
139.0 111.6
155.4 121.3


136.8
153.5
143.0


154.7
152.7
142.6
135.1
175.4
153.5


110.1 119.4 109.2
108.3 121.0 104.0
100.2 122.7 93.2


99.3 121.5
98.2 121.1
101.9 123.9
101.2 122.5
105.1 127.1
108.9 130.4


93.8
85.5
93.0
93.2
95.6
95.4


95.5
97.8







107.5


93.9
90,3
83.8


85.2
81.8
84.7
84.8
85.3


High ./ :131.5 109.7 129.8 111.3 155.4 133.1 175.4 110.4 130.4 111.9 107.5 94.6

Low 3/ :126.5 90.9 120.3 92.5 139.0 108.9 142.6 98.2 113.0 85.5 95.9 81.8

1/ Weekly average of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
2/ No quotations Octnber 31 December 9, 1936 duo tc strike.
/ October 1 to date.




Table 3.- Spreads bct-veOn domestic wvheat prices eand prices at
".Vinr.ip;g and Liverpool, specified periods, 1937


-.... Ma futures per bushel ..........: Cash what per bushel
: Amount Chicago : Amount Kansas : Amount No. 2 Hard
: averaged : City avoragod : Winter (Kansas City)
Shoelow : below : averaged below
Month and year -.. ...
S: : : No. 3 :
:Winnipeg :Liverpool: Winnipeg :Liverpocl: Manitoba : Parcel
-: : : : (Winnipeg) (Livc po l)
: Conts Cunts C -Ccnt s C-nts Cents Cents
Sept. ........: 16 --- 22 --- 12 26
Oct. .........: 18 23 22 26 11 31
Nov. ......... 20 26 23 29 16 42
Week ended -
Dec. 11. ...: 22 21 25 24 16 1/

1/ Liverpool parcels not available.


-14-






- 15 -


Table 9 .- Estimated production cf wbhet in spje-ifipd countries, 1934-35

(Revised fron last mor, th)


* 1924-

1: l00 i ,000
: busnels bus hels


1936-57 1937-3A

1 0'0 1 ,00 C
bus hs bu.s-he I


NORTPERII HITiISPrE-RE
North America:
United States .............. .: 526,393
Canada ..................... 275, 849
Mexi co .....................: 10,950
Total (E) .................: 813,192
Europe :
England and Wales .......... : 65,259
Scotland ................... : 4,144
Northern Ireland ............: 363
Irish Free State ........... : 3,8C3
Norway ....................: 1,204
Sweden .....................: 27,30
Denmark .. ................. : 12,547
Netherlands ...... ........... : 1. 8,042
Belgium .................... : 16 ,75E
France ..................... : ..33 ,'.-13
Spain .......................: 196,85
Luxemburg .................. : 1,171
Portugal ................... : 24,690
Italy .......................... : 2 ,064
Switzerland ................ : 5,519
Germany ......... ........... : 166,547
Austri a .................... : 13,306
Czechoslovakia ............. : 50,014
Greece ..................... : 25,6"9
Poland ..................... : 76,441
Lithuania .................. : 10,476
Latvia ......................: 8,051
Estonia .................... : 3,107
Finland ................... .. : .,2811
Malta ........................: 310
Albania .............. ...... 1,628
Total (26) ............... :1 298,855
Bulgaria ................... : 39,595
Hungary ................ ...: 64,824
RuiLaj nia .................... : 76,553
Yugoslavia ................. : 68,328
Total (4) ................: 249,300


Total Europe (30) ........:1,548,155


626 :44
231,955

918.9911


60, _
4,490'
562
6 1,C
23,610
14,6.2
16 53
16,101i

S7,- 49
1 0C2
1,0*2


11 ,K^3
6 ,0b5

,0 -190


84224
10,093
6,403

4,`:.Z3
179
1,554
1,274,724
47,925
84,224
96,459
73,101
301,689


1. 576.413


229,218
13,306
969,50


51 ,445
r '-7
*7 -z79
7, .9
,094
21,5125
11 ,IF6

16,1 '

12'1 490
1,070
.: 651
224,570
4,470
4/ 16.2,::'60
14 C,09


"F ,35J
7 ,949
5,2 2
2,42.5

236
1,128
1,090,601
60,350
87,789
128,717
107,421
384,27'7


1.474. 878


9?3,993
15SE,505
11,216
1,017,714


4 11
1/ 240
1,7,200
2,524
26,495
'11 ,900
12,959
3/14, 0O
7"246, 200
,/1 5,000
1,190
14 540
296,010
6,162
4/161,193
14,470
51,266
2,2, 2,]
67,608
7,991
6,320
767
6,320
326'
1,293
1,180,407
56,492
69,895
136,001
86,252
348,640


1.529,047


Continued -


Count ry


WS-14


I z r





WS-14


- 16 -


Table 9.- Estimated production of wheat in specified countries,


Country


NORTHER11 HEMISPHERE CONTD.
Africa:
Algeria ....................
Morocco .................... :
Tunisia ....................:
Egypt ............ ......... .
Total (4) .................


to 1937-38-Contd.
(Revised from last month)

1934-35 19,5-36


1,000
bushels

43,528
39,586
13,779
37,277
134,170


1,000
bushels

33,532
20,036
16,902
43,222
113,692


193 6-37


1,000
bushels

29,774
12,234
8,083
45,700
95,791


1934-35


1937-38
1,000
bushels

33,995
18,372
18,372
45,376
116,115


Asia:
Palestine .................. : 3,044
Syria and Lebanon ..........: 16,279
India ...................... : 349,813
Japan ...................... : 47,660
Chosen .....................: 9,268
Turkey ..... ................ .. : 99,712
Total (6) ................: 5:5,776
Total 43 countries .......: 3,'02]3035
Estimated Northern
Hemisphere total,
excluding Soviet
Russia and China 5/ ....: 3,096,000

SOUTHERIT EMlISPMTRE
Argentina .................... : 240,669
Australia ....................: 133,394
Union of South Africa ........ : 16,373
Estimated world total, ex- :
eluding Soviet Russia and :
China 7/ .................. : 3,543,000


3 ,834
18,520
363,216
48,718
9,747
92,610
536,675
3,145.771


2,795
15,704
351,680
45,192
8,078
138,497
561,946
3,002,205


(2,800)
17,210
366,165
50,410
11,041
140,311
587,937
3,300,813


3,210.000 3,066,000 3,365,000


141,462 249,193 6/185,000
144,217 150,106 161,954
20,195 16,077 12,033


3,582,000


3,5358,000


3,779,000


Compiled from official data except as otherwise noted.

1/ Estimate of the London office of the Bureau.
2/ Estimate of the Berlin office of the Bureau.
j/ Estimate of the Paris office of the Bureau.
4/ Includes the Saar.
5/ Includes, besides countries listed, estimates for wheat producing countries
of the Uorthern Hemisphere for which reports are not available.
6/ Estimate of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. The official estimate of
191,984,000 bushels presumably does not take into account the. full frost damage.
7/ Includes, besides countries listed, estimates for wheat producing countries
of the world for which reports are not available,





WS-14


- 17 -


Table 10.-Estimated United States wheat acreage harvested, and produc-
tion, 1937, and comparisons


: Acreage harvested : Production
Crop :Average : : :Average :
: 1928-32 : 1936 : 1937 : 1928-32 : 1936 : 1937
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: acres acres acres bushels bushels bushels

Durum I/ .........: 4,775 1,538 2,756. 53,687 8,073 27.791
Other Spring 2/ ..: 15,639 9,638 14,758 187,625 98,819 161,100
All Spring .....: 20,414 11,176 17,514 241,312 106,892 188,891
Winter 3/ ........: 39,724 37,687 43,946 623,220 519,874 685,102
All wheat ......: 60,138 48,863 64,460 864,532 626,766 873,993

1 North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota.
2/ Includes durum in States other than North Dakota, South Dakota, and
Minnesota.
3/ Sown previous fall.





Table 11.-Estimated United States wheat acreage seeded and yield per
seeded acre, 1937, and comparisons


: Acreage seeded : Yield per seeded acre
Crop :Averae : : :Average : :
:1928-32 : : :1928-32 : 1936 :1937
: 1,000 1,000 1,000


: acres


Durunm / .........:
Other Spring 2/ ..:
All Spring .....:
Winter 3/ ........
All wheat ......:


5,096
17,025
22,121
45,290
67,411


acres


3,555
20,404
23,959
49,765
73,724


acres


3,226
20,524
23,750
57,612
81,362


Bushels Bushel s


10.1
11.0
10.8
13.8
12.8


2.3
4.8
4.5
10.4
8.5


Bu,'-hel s


8.6
7.8
8.0
11.9
10.7


See table 10 for footnotes.




'ITS-14


Table 12 .-Estimated rye production in specified countries, 1934-37

(Revised from last month)


Country


: 1934


1935


1936


: 1937
e


: b1,000
: bushels


United States ...........:
Canada ..................:
Total (2) .............:
Albania .................:
Austria .................:
Belgium ...... ..........:
Bulgaria ................:
Czechoslovakia ..........:..
Denmnark .... ........... ..
Estonia ................. :
Finland ............ ....:
France ...................
Germany ................
G-reece .......... .... ..
Hungary ..... ............:
Irish Free State ........:
Italy ......... ........ :
Latvia ..................:
Lithuania .................:
Liuxemburg ...... .......:
Netherlands .............:
Norway ...... ...........:
Poland ..................
Portugal ................
Rumania .................:
Spain ........... ........
Sweden .... .............:
Switzerland .............:
Yugoslavia ..............:

Total (26) ...........


17,CO'
4,706
21,776
141
22,617
15,268
6,438
59,968
10,801
9,064
13,544
32,983
299,496
2,466
24,380
66
5,607
16,210
26,331
548
19,78
395
254,472
4,913
8,308
21,567
20,351
1,225
7,688

b86.635


1, COO
bushels

58,597
9,606
68,203
111
24,416
12,995
7,767
64,501
11,177
6,804
13,760
29,371
294,399
2,183
28, 650
69
6,225
14,326
25,221
452
18,311
483
260,498
4,635
12,724
19,245
16,902
1,252
7,719

E84. 196


1,000
bushels

25,319
4,281
29,600
116
18,610
14,059
8,188
56,549
7,842
6,044
12,755
28,150
3/290,793
1,654
28,114
68
5,204
11,260
21,314
449
19,059
425
250,536
3,466
17,842
18,053
13,891
1,077
8,002


843.520


1,000
bushels

49,449
5,749
55,198
114
16,830
1/ 12,800
8,293
58,447
2/ 9,600
8,109
16,299
29,151
3/266,217
2,588
22,945
4/ 79
5,701
16,574
23,660
408
19,511
435
229,518
4,642
16,697
1/19,700
16,984
1,213
8,239


J4, 86


Algeria .................:
Argentina ................. :
Turkey .................. :


45
15,645
9,539


17
5,000
8,508


29
7,480
17,660


41
4,527
18, 822


/1 Estimate of the Paris office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
2 Estimate of the Berlin office of the "
3s Includes the Saar.
4/ Estimate of the London office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.


- 18 -


814. 864







- 19 -


Table 13.-Wheat disappearance in 'er;muary, August-October,
1935-36, to 1937-38


Item


: 1935-36


1936-37


: 1937-38


: 1,000 bushels


1, 000 bushels


1,000 bushels


Carry-over Aug. 1 ........:
Crop production ..........:
Net imports, Aug.-Oct. ...:
Total supply Aug.-Oct...:
Stocks, Oct. 31 ..........:
First-hand stocks .......:
Second-liend stocks .....:
hDiappearance Aug.-Oct. ..:


50,632
171,488
S 147
222.267
171,554
112,030
59,524
50,713


25,720
162,660
294
188,674
133,415
105,453
27,9259
55,259


17,453
161,193
11,868
190.514
138,375
98,325
40,050
52,13.9


Table 14.-Pye disappearance in Germany, August-October,
1935-36 to 1937-38


Item 1935-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38

: 1,000 bushels 1,000 bushels 1,000 bushels

Carry-over Aug. 1 ........: 53,16 17,401 22,243
Crop production ..........: 294,399 290,793 266,217
Net imports, Aug.-Oct. ...: 512 39 1,260
Total supply, Aug.-Oct..: 347,073 308,233 2c9,9720
Stocks, Oct. 31 ..........: 254,828 218,492 199,753
yirst-hand stocks ........ 200,185 191,249 157,078
Secoind-hand stocks ......: 54,643 27,243 42,675
Disappearance, Aug.-Oct. .: 92,245 89,741 89,967


WS-14






IS-14 20


Table 15.-IDuum wheat production in selected countries 1/,
average 1931-35, annual 1936 and 1937


Country : Average : : 7
: 1931-35 1936 : i
: Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels

United States ... ......... : 21.8 8.1 27.8
Canada .......................: 2/ 17.8 15.3 30.7
Total United States and t
Canada .............. 39.6 23.4 58.5

Italy .......................: 57.6 57.4 69.1
Morocco ......................: 21.0 8.5 11.0
Algeria ....................: 22.9 18.6 21.3
Tunisia ....................: 9.8 4.4 9.9
Total Italy and North Africa: 111.3 88.9 111.3
1/ Argentina, India, and Russia, where durum is also an important crop,
make no estimate of durum production.
2_/ Year 1935 only.




Table 16.-Durum wheat estimated net imports or net exports (-)
in selected countries, 1937-38 with comparisons 1j


Average : : :
Country : 1931-32 to: 1935-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38
: 1935-36 : :preliminary : forecast
: Million Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels

France ............. 11.9 10.3 9.0 12.1
Italy .............: 2.8 1.0 2/ -1.1 2/ -1.8
Morocco ...........: 3/ 2/ -0.7 2.2 3.7
Algeria ...........: 6.8 2 -8.4 2/ -8.5 2/ -8.1
Tuniia ...........: 2/ -2.9 2/ -4.5 0.3 2/ -4.0
Total ...........: 18.6 2/ -2.3 1.9 1.9
1/ Estimated by Paris office of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
2/ Net exports.


- 20 -






'S-14


- 21 -


Table 17.-Wheat: Imports into the United States for domestic utili-
zation and for grinding in bond, and export, annually 1923-24 to
1936-37 and monthly, January to October 1937

: : Wheat unfit :Total imports :
: Fully duty: for hunan : for domestic : For
Crop year : wheat : consumption : utilization : grinding
: (tariff :(tariff of 10 : (total of : in bond
: 42 cents) :percent ad : first 2 : and export
: : val.) I/ : columns) : 2/
Bushels Bushels Bushels ''Bushels


1923-24 .......:
1924-25 .......:
1925-26 .......:
1926-27 .......:
1927-28 .......:
1928-29 .......:
1929-30 .......:
1930-31 .......:
1931-32 .......:
1932-33 .......:
1933-34 *.......:
1934-35 .......:
1935-36 .......:
1936-37 .......:

1937-
Jan. .......
Feb. ........:
Mar. .......:
Apr. .......:
May .........:
June .......:
July .......:
AuS. ...... :
Sept. ......:
Oct .......


13,783,423
272,548
1,664,843
48,808
161,297
79,136
44,607
40,756
6,057
5,767
143,656
5,905,380
25,329,376
30,205,430


1,769,364
1,612,718
1,375,778
1,047,626
966,614
1,026,933
490,060
101,400
1,274
103


307,336

1,354
5,729
8,146,044
9,189,271
4,057,016


96,817
52,917
32,300
43,000
25,537
37,127
3,650
0
0
500


13,783,423
272,548
1,664,843
48,808
161,297
79,136
44,607
348,092
6,057
7,121
149,385
14,051,424
34,518,647
34,262,446


1,866,181
1,665,635
1,408,078
1,090,626
992,151
1,064,060
493,710
101,400
1,274
603


13,904,837
5,813,353
13-,421,480
13,171,683
15,043,679
22,480,962
12,903,364
19,013,090
12,878,851
9,372,151
11,341,052
11,064,092
11,978,659
13,468,667


1,194,675
95, 035
955,464
1,141,874
1,132,443
1,051,428
769,719
7 c3,290
452,105
348,167


Imports for consumption from United States Tariff Commission, July 1923 to
December 1933, and from Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, January
1934 to date.

1/ Beginning June 18, 1930, a new classification, wheat unfit for human
consumption, was introduced by the 1930 Tariff Act.
2/ Wheat for grinding in bond for export, which enters duty free. Beginning
June 18, 1930, includes wheat ground into flour in bond for export to Cuba,
a new classification in the 1930 Act. From June 18, 1930 to September 3,
1936 the duty on this wheat equaled the reduction in Cuban duty and the
reduction in the consumption tax applicable by treaty to such flour imported
into Cuba. On September 3, 1936 the consumption tax was repealed.


__4_







- 22 -


Table 18.- Exportc of wheat and wheat flour from the United States, 1936 and
1937
(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)


Wheat
1936 :
1,000
bushels b


1937
1,000
ushels


%: Wheat flour
:1936 : 1937 :
1,000 1,000
barrels barrels


Whe at
1936
1,000
bushels


including flour
: 1937
1,000
bushels


July-Oct. .... :
Week ended: :
IcH v. 6 .... :
13 ....
20 .... :
27 .....
Dec. 4 .... :
11 .... :


1,661 17,380


1,184
1,939
1,290
936
2,211
1,690


Compiled from reports of the Department of Commerce.





T-ble 19.- Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1936 and 1937


: Argentina : Australia : Danube : North
Period : 1936 : 957 : 1936 : 137 : 1936 : 1937 : 1936
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000


Ameri ca
: 1937
1,000


bushelss bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

July-Oct. .....: 13,728 13,676 22,200 21,112 28,296 17,352 98,984 52,280


Week ended:
ov. 6
13
20
27
Dec. 4
11
19


1,600
1,336
1,064
934
1,336
1,048
1,828


216
0
1,012
128
368
406
1,062


1,732
1,660
980
1,152
1,812
1,600
1,272


1,764
1,900
932
972
2,372
1,473
2,054


2,056
2,304
1,160
1,224
1,648
432
1,680


584
2,224
912
632
1,160
976
176


5,808
7,016
5,0.50
6,055
6,640
4,824
4,216


4,888
5,368
5,360
5,304
6,360
3,615
4,165


Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade NL-Ws.


Period


1,329

21
9
25
13
31
8


1,549

63
35
62
72
144
161


7,906

101
S42
119
61
146
38


24,661

1,480
2,104
1,571
1, 274
2,888
2,447


WS-14







~WS-~14


Table 20.-Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal export-
ing countries, 1931-35 to 1937-38


Country


: __ Exports as given by official sources
: Total : July 1 to date shown :Dete
:1934-35 :1935-36 : 1936-37: 1935-36: 1936-37: 1937-38;
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,OCO :
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels:


United States .......
Canada ..............
Argentina ...........
Australia ...........
Rus'sia ....... ..... .
Hungary ............
Yugoslavia ..........
Rumania .............
Bulgaria ............
British India .......
Total .... .......


: 21,532 15,929
.: 169,630 237,447
.: 187,000 76,577
.: 108,007 102,258
.: 4,286 29,704
.: 12,499 14,644
.: 4,401 728
.: 3,432 6,391
375 988
.: 2,318 2,556
.: 513,480 487.222


21,584
213,028
162,065
95,970
4,479
27,428
17,302
35 540
7,273
14,674
599.363


5,319
113,498
46,338
20,183
11,801
3,213
66
797
309
162


7,906
1379392
23,794
16,482
890
9,848
5,386-
276
1,857
359


24,6351:0ct.31
53,175:Nov.30
15 717:Nov.30
16,452: Scpt,30
9, 969 Sept,30
2,217:Sept.30
3,381:Sept.30
2,026:July 31
1,925: Sept.
309:July 31


i: Segments as given b.," trade sources
: Total : Week ended. (1937 :Jly 1-Dec. 18
:1935-36 :1936-37 :Dec. 4 :Dec. 11:Dec. 18: 1936-37: 1937-38


: 1,000
: bushels


Worth American l/ ....: 220,464
Canada,4 market's 2/ ..: 246,199
Uni-ted States ........: 7,219
Argentina ............: 78,312
Australia ............: 110,576
,Russia ..............: 29,024
Danube & Bulgaria 3/ .: 8,312
British India ........:4/ 2.55:6
Total S/ ...........: 449,244
Total European ship- :
ments I/ .......... : 360,264
Total ex-European
shipments l/ ......: 131,760


1,000
busnels

225,902
194,531
10, 049
164,678
105,836
88
65,544
4/14,674
576,722


484.600


127,192


1,000
bushel


6,360
3,713
2,888
368
2,872
960
1,160
168


1,000
s bushels


3,615
2,158

406
1,473
1,240
976
480


1, 000
bushels


4,165
489

1,062
2,054
1,128
176
192


11.104


1,224


1, 000
bushels


139,224
151,723


1,000
bushels

87,340
57,917


27,904 16,868
32,408 33,079
88 29,712
38,800 24,016
6,632 9,850
215.05C 200 865
6180.040 157.512
180.040 157.512


61,320 37,320


1V Broomnall's Corn Trado News.


Fort '7illian., Port Arthur, Vancouver, Prince
Black Sea shipments only.
Official.


lapert, and. New Westminster.


5/ Totcl of trade figures includes North America as reported by Brooiiall's
-but does not include items 2 and 3.
6/ To December 4.






- 24 -


Table 21..- INet imports of wheat, including flour, into European
countries, year beginning July 1, 1936-37 Lnd 1937-38


: Net import s
: 1937-58 : .iuly 1
forecasts 1_]: ___to
Ivi llio.
bus hel


reported
:


192 6-37
Million
bushels


1937-38 .
Million
bushels


Austria ..... ........... :
Belgiumn ................ :
Czechoslovakin ......... :
Denmark ...... ........... .
Finland ............... :
France ............... .. :
Germany ................
Greece ...... ........ :
Irish Free State .......:
Latvia ................. :
1etherland s ..............:
Norway ..................
Poland .................:
Portugal ................ :
Spain ....... ......... :
Sweden ... ..... ....... :
Switzerland ............
United Kingdom .........
Total imports of
abo'.-e ............... :
Italy ................... :

Total imports .......:
Total exports .......:
Totn' net imports ..:


10
40
2/ -11
7
4
7
23
21
14
1/ 1
21
9
2/ -6
4/
4 /

19
192


10
4J3
2/ -1I
7
3

23
13
14
0
241
3
2/ -1
1
1
/ -1
17
202


3581
55


436
17


419


Sept. 30
A1,g. 31
Oct. 31
Oct. 31
Sept. 50
Aug. 11
Oct. 51
Sept. 30
Oct. 31
Supt. 30
Sept. 30
Oct. 31
Sept. 30
Sept. 30

Oct. 31
Oct. 31
Oct. Z1


539
6


400
3


397


Compiled from official sources except as otherwise stated.

1/ Forecast by European offices of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
5/ Net e.ports.
3/ Less than. 500,000 bushels.
4/ Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.


WS-14


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
ill2lll2llll 0lllTll lllllllll llllllll
3 1262 08861 8250


Count ry


19C6-37


: million
: aushes.-


2
7
2/ -1
3
1
3/
4/
5
5
4/
5
2
2/ -2
3/

2/ -1
6
64


1
6

2-
1
2
22
4
5

6
2



1
5
65


65


100
4


122
2


120


96


:




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